A decade ago, British voters went to the polls with a singular image fresh in their minds: a ubiquitous red bus, the hallmark of the Brexit campaign, imploring residents of the once sprawling empire to “take back control” by severing ties to Europe.

十年前，英国选民走向投票站时，脑海中挥之不去的是一个鲜明画面：那辆随处可见的红色大巴——脱欧阵营的标志性道具——呼吁这个曾经疆域广阔的帝国的居民通过切断与欧洲的联系来“夺回控制权”。

By a slim margin on June 23, 2016, Britons voted to leave the European Union. The people, politicians and businesses of the United Kingdom have been reckoning with the consequences of that decision ever since. Trade, travel, work, study, taxes, borders, the price of groceries, national pride — almost no part of life escaped untouched by the Brexit referendum in the 10 years since the votes were cast.

2016年6月23日，英国人以微弱多数投票决定脱离欧盟。自此，英国民众、政界和企业一直在思索这一决定的后果。贸易、旅行、工作、留学、税收、边境、食品价格、民族自豪感——公投过去十年，几乎生活的每个角落都未能幸免。

On Monday, the forces of Brexit claimed their latest political victim, when Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation, becoming the sixth British leader since the referendum whose tenure was cut short. While he made unforced errors, he was also felled by a series of challenges established long before he arrived in office.

周一，脱欧力量产生了最新一位政治牺牲品：首相基尔·斯塔默宣布辞职，成为公投以来第六位提前结束任期的英国领导人。他有过“非受迫性失误”，但击倒他的还有他上任前早已埋下的诸多挑战。

The economy is sluggish, a condition economists attribute to the effects of severing ties with Europe, along with the enduring consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis, which drove up government debt, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Opportunities to work and live abroad are more limited. Travel is frustrating. Trade with Europe has continued but at a lower level, with British exports to the bloc down about 12 percent, according to the Centre for European Reform, a research group.

经济增长迟滞——经济学家将此归因于“与欧洲断链的后果”、推高政府债务的2008年全球金融危机余波及新冠疫情。赴海外工作与生活的机会更为有限；出行变得烦琐；与欧洲的贸易持续但水平下降——据欧洲改革中心数据，英国对欧盟出口下降约12%。

Immigration from outside the European Union went way up for a time, after the then-Conservative government tried to fill worker shortages in health care and home care, and foreign students were welcomed by cash-poor British universities. But after the rise caused voter anger, the government introduced new restrictions on migration, and it has since fallen sharply.

来自非欧盟国家的移民一度大幅上升——当时保守党政府试图填补医护与居家照护的“劳动力短缺”，资金拮据的英国大学也欢迎外国学生。但移民激增引发选民愤怒后，政府出台了新的限制措施，此后非欧盟移民急剧下降。

Perhaps no part of British society was changed more by Brexit than its political landscape, which has fractured into a chaotic tug of war in which no party seems able to satisfy the demands of an angry and disillusioned public for long.

或许英国社会中没有任何领域比政治版图受脱欧改变更彻底——政坛已分裂为混乱的拉锯战，似乎没有任何政党能长期满足愤怒且感到幻灭的公众的诉求。

“It is political instability that has best characterized the past decade,” Jill Rutter, a senior fellow at Britain’s Institute for Government, wrote in “Brexit at 10,” a report published on Tuesday. “There is a major uphill task facing any government in restoring faith in the capacity of the state to deliver.”

“过去十年的典型特征是政治不稳定，”英国政府研究所高级研究员吉尔·拉特在周二发布的报告《脱欧十周年》中写道，“任何政府若要恢复公众对国家施政能力的信心，都面临艰巨挑战。”

The revolving door at Downing Street began when David Cameron, who called the referendum, resigned after the result. Each prime minister that followed has struggled with the consequences of Brexit: dimmed economic prospects, the fact that it bestowed no special benefits from the so-called special relationship with the United States, and that it has failed to restore any kind of British supremacy around the world.

唐宁街的“旋转门”始于发起公投但在结果出炉后辞职的戴维·卡梅伦。其后每位首相都受困于脱欧后果：经济前景黯淡；未从所谓“英美特殊关系”中获得特别红利；也未能恢复任何形式的“大英全球霸权”。

“For all the competence questions about Keir Starmer, the challenges that he has faced as a prime minister come back to the economy not having grown since 2019,” said Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, a research institute. Speaking at a conference hosted by U.K. in a Changing Europe, another research group, on Tuesday, she said: “The extent to which that is driven by Brexit is also fundamental.”

“抛开基尔·斯塔默个人执政能力争议不谈，他作为首相面临的挑战归根结底在于——自2019年以来经济就没有增长过，”决议基金会首席执行官露丝·柯蒂斯说。她在周二由“变化欧洲中的英国”研究组主办的会议上表示：“其中有多大程度是脱欧驱动的，同样是核心问题。”

The years of political turmoil since have had real-world consequences for a country desperate for long term solutions to its problems.

多年政治动荡对一个迫切需要长远解决方案的国家产生了实实在在的影响。

The turnover of prime ministers “prevents big ambitious reforms from being executed,” said Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “It’s like if you were trying to write a novel and every six months your P.C. would wipe the hard drive and you had to just scramble together all the notes you had and try to do it again.”

“首相频繁更替令宏大的改革计划无从执行，”曼彻斯特大学政治科学教授罗布·福特说。“好比你写小说，每六个月电脑就把硬盘格式化，你得把零散笔记拼凑起来重写。”

He added: “The deep stuff just doesn’t ever really get addressed, because no one’s really in post long enough to get to that.”

“深层结构性问题永远得不到真正处理，因为没人待得够久去推进它，”他还说。

Andy Burnham, the popular former mayor of Greater Manchester who looks almost certain to succeed Mr. Starmer, will be the next in line to confront the country’s post-Brexit challenges. A member of Mr. Starmer’s Labour Party, he is seen by many as ideologically similar, but more charismatic and better able to tell a compelling story to voters.

目前看来，人气颇高的大曼彻斯特前市长安迪·伯纳姆几乎确定将接替斯塔默，因而将是下一位须直面脱欧后挑战的人。同属工党的他被认为意识形态与斯塔默相近，但更具个人魅力，更善于向选民讲述动人叙事。

Whether that will be enough to overcome the Brexit ruptures and the political instability is unclear.

这是否足以化解脱欧造成的裂痕与政治动荡尚不明朗。

The public he helped persuade is less certain.

就连他当年曾参与说服的那部分公众也不再那么笃定。

Recent polling shows that more people would vote to rejoin the European Union than would want to stay separate if another referendum were held. That includes a significant shift among people who voted to leave 10 years ago.

近期民调显示，若再举行公投，更多人愿投票“重新加入”欧盟而非继续脱离——包括相当一部分十年前投了脱欧的人。

Luke Tryl, the U.K. director for More in Common, a British research group, said that recent surveys of public opinion on Brexit showed that many people had changed their minds.

英国研究机构More in Common英国总监卢克·特赖尔表示，近期民调显示，许多人对脱欧改变了看法。

“A clear majority think that Brexit has been a failure, and even Leave voters are split on whether Brexit has been a success or a failure,” he said. “They don’t think that the U.K. can defend itself. They also have lost faith in the U.S. as an ally of the U.K.”

“明显多数人认为脱欧是失败的，即便是脱欧选民也对‘成功还是失败’意见分裂，”他说。“他们认为英国无力独自防卫，也对美国作为盟友失去信心。”

That in turn is making people more open — if still cautious — about what it would mean to rejoin the European Union, he said. In the More in Common study, 48 percent of Britons said they would vote to “rejoin” Europe, while only 28 percent said they would vote to stay outside.

他说，这反过来使公众对“重新加入欧盟意味着什么”的问题持更开放的态度——虽然仍存疑虑。在More in Common的研究中，48%英国人表示会投“重新入欧”，仅28%表示会继续选择留在欧盟外。

That might eventually propel the country’s political leaders toward a new vote. In an interview with ITV News on Monday, Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, called Brexit the “biggest act of economic self-harm” perpetrated by any country.

这或许最终会推动政治领导人走向新公投。伦敦工党市长萨迪克·汗周一接受ITV新闻采访时称，脱欧是“一个国家犯下的最大规模经济自残行为”。

“What we should do is recognize that at some stage we’re going to join the European Union again,” he said. “Why delay the inevitable and suffer in the meantime, economically, socially, and culturally?”

“我们应承认，英国终有一天会重新加入欧盟，”他说。“何必拖延不可避免的事，在此期间还要在经济、社会和文化上遭受损失？”

But most politicians, even those who agree with Mr. Khan, are wary of risking the wrath of the portion of the British public who voted to Leave, and who still view a closer relationship with Europe as a final surrender of the nationalistic pride they already feel has been lost.

但多数政客即便认同汗的看法，也担心激怒当年投票脱欧的选民，他们仍将深化对欧洲的关系视为对其已然失落的民族自尊的“彻底投降”。

Politicians like Mr. Burnham, who supports improved relations with Europe, are nervous about Reform and its voters, as well as the response of a right-wing tabloid news media that campaigned for Brexit and will pounce on any whisper of a rapprochement.

像伯纳姆这样支持改善对欧关系的人也对改革党及其选民心存顾忌，更担心曾力挺脱欧的小报媒体见到任何与欧洲修好的企图都会群起而攻之。

Anand Menon, a professor at King’s College London and director of U.K. in a Changing Europe, said on Tuesday that he was very skeptical that there was any political appetite for an immediate push to rejoin the European Union, despite the downsides of Britain’s withdrawal.

伦敦国王学院教授、“变化欧洲中的英国”主任阿南德·梅农周二表示，尽管脱欧弊端显现，他对政界是否有意愿立即推动重新入欧“非常怀疑”。

周六在伦敦举行的一场支持重新加入欧盟的集会。

“If you’re the prime minister and someone came up to you and said, ‘Prime minister, I’ve got a really good idea, which is you should reopen a toxic debate, go through five, six years of really painful negotiation and domestic angst in order that we can reap significant economic benefits for your successor,’” Mr. Menon said, “I’m just not aware of a politician who would say ‘That sounds like a great idea.’”

“假如你是首相，有人凑过来说：‘首相，我有个绝妙主意——咱们重开这场有毒辩论，熬过五六年痛苦谈判和国内撕裂，好让你的继任者享受显著经济利益，’”梅农说。“我真不知道哪个政客会答‘听起来不错’。”

China took back a coveted computing crown from the United States on Tuesday, ratcheting up a fierce technological competition that has implications for science, national security and geopolitics.

周二，中国从美国手中夺回了令人垂涎的计算桂冠，令这场对科学、国家安全及地缘政治均具深远影响的技术竞赛愈演愈烈。

LineShine, a massive computing system in Shenzhen, China, was declared the world’s fastest by a group of researchers using a set of standard tests for supercomputers. Besides raw speed, the system stood out because it uses only standard microprocessors and not the special-purpose chips called graphics processing units, which most high-end supercomputers rely on for heavy number crunching.

一个对超级计算机进行标准测试的研究团队宣布，位于中国深圳的大型计算系统“灵晟”(LineShine)是全球最快计算机。除了绝对速度外，该系统的一大亮点是仅使用了标准微处理器，而没有依赖大多数高端超级计算机用于繁重数值计算的专用芯片——图形处理器。

That underlying design could point to a better way to blend artificial intelligence with traditional scientific tasks, said Jack Dongarra, an organizer of the so-called Top500 list of the world’s most powerful supercomputers.

田纳西大学计算机科学与电气工程教授、全球超级计算机“TOP500榜单”组织者之一杰克·唐加拉表示，这一底层设计可能指出了一条将人工智能与传统科学任务更好地融合的新路径。

Dr. Dongarra, a professor of computer science and electrical engineering at the University of Tennessee, recently inspected the new machine, at the Shenzhen Cloud Computing Center. LineShine’s test results were more than 20 percent faster than those of El Capitan, a system at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California that has topped a twice-yearly ranking of supercomputer performance since November 2024. China had not placed a machine at the top of the list since 2017.

唐加拉近期查验了位于深圳云计算中心的新机器。灵晟的测试结果比美国加州劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室的“酋长岩”(El Capitan)快了20%以上；自2024年11月以来，“酋长岩”一直占据着这份每半年更新一次的超级计算机性能排名榜首。自2017年以来，中国尚无系统登顶该榜单。

位于加利福尼亚州劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室的“酋长岩”超级计算机。“灵晟”的测试结果比此前位居榜首的“酋长岩”快20%以上。

“It’s an impressive system,” Dr. Dongarra said of LineShine. “They upped us by developing a system that is not reliant on GPUs.”

“这是一套令人印象深刻的系统，”唐加拉在谈及灵晟时说。“他们通过开发不依赖GPU的系统超越了我们。”

The new supercomputer adds to the race between China and the United States for technological supremacy. U.S. tech giants like OpenAI, Anthropic and Google have developed leading A.I. models, while another American company, Nvidia, has become the world’s dominant supplier of A.I. chips. China has tried to innovate in different ways, with the Chinese start-up DeepSeek releasing a cutting-edge A.I. model last year using just a tiny fraction of specialized A.I. chips.

这台新的超级计算机加剧了中美之间争夺技术霸权的竞赛。美国的科技巨头如OpenAI、Anthropic和谷歌已开发出领先的AI模型，而另一家美国公司英伟达则已成为全球AI芯片的主导供应商。中国试图通过不同的方式创新，例如中国初创公司深度求索去年仅使用了极小部分的专用AI芯片，便发布了尖端AI模型。

To prevent China from catching up, President Trump has imposed tariffs and at times placed limits on A.I. chip exports. But China’s use of standard microprocessors, which are known as CPUs, rather than GPUs to create an ultrafast supercomputer suggests a potential way to get around those roadblocks.

为防止中国赶上，特朗普总统已加征关税，并不时对AI芯片出口设限。但中国使用被称为CPU的标准微处理器（而非GPU）打造超快超级计算机，表明了一种绕过这些壁垒的潜在途径。

“The U.S. government should have stronger controls on the export and manufacturing of CPUs for the China market,” said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior fellow at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. “It is a loophole in the current regulations.”

加州大学全球冲突与合作研究所高级研究员吉米·古德里奇表示：“美国政府应该对面向中国市场的CPU出口和制造实施更严格的管控，这是现行法规中的一个漏洞。”

Supercomputers, a term for the largest machines dedicated to science, have been used since the 1960s for tasks like creating climate models, cracking codes and designing nuclear weapons. They typically use high-precision mathematics, expressing numbers with 64 bits of data.

超级计算机——用于科学研究的巨型机器——自20世纪60年代以来一直被用于创建气候模型、破译密码和设计核武器等任务。它们通常使用高精度数学运算，即用64位数据来表示数字。

Commercial A.I. systems from companies like Google and OpenAI, by contrast, can be even faster. They can use approximations for tasks such as identifying images or selecting the next word in a sentence, relying on what are known as four-bit and eight-bit numbers that allow the systems to make many simpler calculations at once.

相比之下，谷歌和OpenAI等公司的商用AI系统甚至可以更快。它们可以使用近似值来完成识别图像或选择句子中下一个单词等任务，依靠所谓的四位和八位数字使系统能够同时进行更多更简单的计算。

“It is notable and impressive what China has done here, but they can’t hold a candle to these massive A.I. supercomputers that have been built by American A.I. labs” and others, Mr. Goodrich said.

古德里奇说：“中国在此方面的成就值得注意且令人印象深刻，但他们无法与美国AI实验室及其他机构建造的这些大规模AI超级计算机相提并论。”

U.S. national labs, which are the main buyers of some of the largest supercomputers, are eager to use A.I. to accelerate aspects of their scientific work. So they are adopting more of these less precise calculations, along with the 64-bit variety.

作为部分最大超级计算机主要买家的美国国家实验室迫切希望利用AI加速其科学工作的各个方面。因此它们正在采用更多这种精度较低的运算方式，同时也保留64位运算。

Though U.S. companies have historically dominated the ranks of the very largest supercomputers, foreign systems have sometimes vaulted to the top. A system in Japan, for example, ranked No. 1 on the list from 2020 to 2022.

尽管美国公司历来在最大的超级计算机的排名中占据主导地位，但外国系统有时也会跃居榜首。例如，日本的一个系统在2020年至2022年间曾排名第一。

“There’s a lot of talk that America is the only country capable of these systems,” said Addison Snell, an analyst at Intersect360 Research, a firm tracking the sector. “Then you find that other companies have capabilities, too.”

追踪该行业的Intersect360 Research分析师艾迪森·斯内尔表示：“很多人都说只有美国才有能力建造这些系统，但你会发现其他国家也有这样的能力。”

Powerful systems from China and Japan have regularly spurred the Department of Energy and other U.S. agencies to push for more funding for supercomputers. In November, the Trump administration started the Genesis Mission, which aims to exploit supercomputers at U.S. national labs, along with private companies, to supercharge A.I. and scientific research.

中国和日本的强大系统经常刺激能源部和其他美国机构争取更多超级计算机资金。今年11月，特朗普政府启动了“创世纪计划”，旨在利用美国国家实验室及私营公司的超级计算机来强力助推AI与科学研究。

GPUs, primarily developed by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, have been a critical weapon in the recent supercomputer race. These chips excel in doing many chores simultaneously, including so-called vector calculations used in science and matrix multiplication at the heart of many A.I. tasks.

主要由英伟达和AMD开发的GPU是近期超级计算机竞赛中的关键武器。这些芯片擅长同时处理多项任务，包括科学中使用的所谓向量计算，以及作为许多AI任务核心的矩阵乘法运算。

When U.S. officials limited China’s access to GPUs and other powerful chips, as well as restricting exports of some machines for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors, that caused it “to invest in developing architectures and technology to effectively have supercomputers that are at the same level as the U.S.’s highest-performing systems,” Dr. Dongarra said.

唐加拉说，当美国官员限制中国获取GPU及其他高性能芯片，并限制出口用于制造最先进半导体的部分机器时，中国转而“投资开发架构和技术，以有效打造出与美国最高性能系统处于同一水平的超级计算机”。

China’s LineShine system does not separate the traditional jobs of microprocessors and GPUs, as most high-end systems do. Instead, it builds in GPU-style tasks with specialized circuitry that accelerates matrix and vector calculations. That ability is embedded in chips that have a total of nearly 14 million computing cores, or tiny electronic brains, installed in 90 hardware cabinets.

中国的灵晟系统不像大多数高端系统那样有微处理器和GPU的传统分工。相反，它通过专用电路将GPU式的任务集成在内，加速了矩阵和向量计算。这种能力嵌入在总计拥有近1400万个计算核心（即微型电子大脑）的芯片中，这些芯片安装在90个硬件机柜里。

These chips are an original design based on a set of instructions licensed by Arm Holdings, a British company that is controlled by the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank. Arm’s technology is best known for powering smartphones but has lately been adapted by Nvidia, Amazon, Qualcomm and others for use in data centers.

这些芯片是基于软银集团旗下的英国公司Arm Holdings授权的指令集进行的原创设计。Arm的技术以驱动智能手机而闻名，但近来已被英伟达、亚马逊、高通等公司改造用于数据中心。

Arm has long operated in China. “Arm operates globally, including in China, in compliance with applicable export control laws and regulations,” a company spokeswoman said.

Arm在中国运营已久。该公司一位发言人表示：“Arm在全球范围内（包括中国）开展业务，均遵守适用的出口管制法律法规。”

“灵晟”系统使用的芯片基于英国公司Arm授权的一套指令集。

LineShine’s designers, who are supercomputer veterans in China, have not disclosed details about which company manufactured the chips or the level of chip production technology used, Dr. Dongarra said.

唐加拉表示，灵晟的设计者是中国超算资深人士，他们尚未披露芯片由哪家公司制造，也未披露所使用的芯片生产工艺水平。

He and other experts have long thought that China had systems capable of a No. 1 ranking, but laboratories there had not recently submitted test results.

他和其他专家长期以来一直认为中国拥有具备夺冠实力的系统，但那里的实验室近期并未提交测试结果。

“It doesn’t surprise me that there is a Chinese machine capable of being No. 1,” Mr. Snell said. “The surprise is that they wanted the acknowledgment.”

斯内尔说：“中国有实力夺冠的系统并不让我惊讶，令人惊讶的是他们想要这份认可。”

Dr. Dongarra, who wrote a detailed report on the new system, was told while visiting China that the system had been made without government funding, so the designers felt it was permissible to submit tests for the Top500 ranking, he said.

唐加拉撰写了一份关于该新系统的详细报告。他表示，访华期间有人告诉他，该系统是在没有政府资助的情况下建造的，因此设计者认为可以用测试结果申请TOP500排名。

The Shenzhen scientists have also sought recognition for the new machine through 14 submissions for the Gordon Bell Prize, which promotes solving sophisticated problems in science, Dr. Dongarra said. Three systems are finalists for that award, and three for a related prize in climate science.

唐加拉说，深圳的科学家们还通过提交14份申请角逐旨在促进解决复杂科学问题的“戈登·贝尔奖”，以寻求对新机器的认可。目前有三个系统入围该奖项，另有三个系统入围相关的气候科学奖项。

LineShine has been used for projects like a sophisticated simulation of Earth, including atmosphere, ocean, land and ice components, as well as a complex simulation of the human brain, according to Dr. Dongarra’s report.

根据唐加拉的报告，灵晟已被用于诸如地球（包括大气、海洋、陆地和冰层组成部分）的精密模拟，以及人脑的复杂模拟等项目。

Alan Greenspan, who in nearly two decades as chair of the Federal Reserve nurtured a long run of prosperity, navigated crises and was a powerful and polarizing force in shaping market-friendly policies, died Monday at his home in Washington. He was 100.

艾伦·格林斯潘担任美联储主席近20年，呵护美国长期繁荣、驾驭多次危机，并以铁腕且极具争议性的方式塑造了亲市场政策，他于周一在华盛顿家中去世，享年100岁。

The cause was complications of Parkinson’s disease, his wife, Andrea Mitchell, the chief Washington correspondent and chief foreign affairs correspondent for NBC News, said in a statement.

他的妻子、NBC新闻首席华盛顿特派员兼首席外交事务记者安德莉亚·米切尔公布离世原因为帕金森病并发症。

The preeminent economic policymaker of his time and arguably the most recognizable economist of any era, Greenspan led the central bank under four presidents of both parties from 1987 to 2006.

格林斯潘是他那个时代最重要的经济决策者，也被广泛认为是史上最具知名度的经济学家。他于1987年至2006年间先后担任两党四位总统任内的美联储负责人。

Much of his tenure coincided with a streak of affluence in which he stood as the embodiment of a triumphant, post-Cold War strain of American capitalism: optimistic, faithful in the power of markets to improve living standards, captivated by the power of technology and averse to regulation.

他任期的大部分时间里，美国处于一段繁荣时期，在此期间他成为冷战后美式资本主义胜利的化身：乐观、笃信市场能改善生活水平、痴迷于技术的力量、厌恶监管。

But the ideological stamp he put on policymaking came to be associated as well with the destructive consequences of forces that emerged on his watch, including deregulation of banking and Wall Street, the loss of American jobs to free trade and persistent concerns about bubbles in stock and housing prices.

但他烙印在政策制定上的意识形态倾向也逐渐被认为与他任内催生的破坏性后果相关——包括银行和华尔街的去监管化、自由贸易导致的美国就业岗位流失，以及对股市与楼市泡沫的持续担忧。

Even as Greenspan skillfully managed interest rates in a way that kept the economy humming along, he remained leery of confronting a danger he well recognized: that the low-inflation, easy-money environment he had helped create was putting the United States at risk by fueling unsustainable investment booms. And he remained reluctant to act as banks and investment firms adopted complex new trading techniques that would come to wreak great damage.

尽管格林斯潘以娴熟手法调控利率使经济持续扩张，他却始终回避一个他清楚存在的危险：他参与营造的低通胀、宽松货币环境正在催生不可持续的投机热潮，将美国置于风险之中。而当银行和投资公司采用日后造成巨大破坏的复杂新型交易技术时，他也迟迟不愿介入。

2005年6月芝加哥期货交易所的交易员。次年年初，格林斯潘卸任美联储主席职务，此后将大部分时间用于捍卫自己的政策遗产。

At the Fed, he was successful at what he considered the central banker’s primary task of holding down inflation. He also helped the United States deal with periodic shocks, including a stock market crash just weeks after he took office, the near-meltdown of Asian financial markets a decade later and the aftereffects of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

在美联储，他成功完成了在他看来的央行首要任务——遏制通胀，并协助美国应对多次周期性冲击：上任仅数周遭遇股灾、十年后亚洲金融市场近乎崩盘，以及2001年“9·11”恐袭的冲击。

Only after he stepped down in early 2006 — and especially following the crisis on Wall Street in 2008, the near-collapse of the mortgage market and the ensuing deep recession — were his legacy and philosophy challenged in a concerted way.

直到2006年初卸任后——特别是经历2008年华尔街危机、房贷市场近乎崩溃及随之而来的深度衰退后，他的遗产与理念才遭到系统性质疑。

By that point, one group of critics blamed him for not heading off a housing bubble by pushing interest rates higher. Another accused him of promoting a corrosive free-market fundamentalism that left the financial system to operate unchecked as it adopted increasingly risky practices.

一些批评者指责他未通过加息预防楼市泡沫；还有一些人指控他宣扬腐蚀性自由市场原教旨主义，令金融体系在日益激进的风险操作中失控运行。

His record — and the degree to which he deserves either the praise or the blame heaped on him — remains a subject of intense debate. There is no doubt that he was a pivotal figure during a period of immense ferment in the economy and deep ideological divides over how to manage it.

他的功过——以及他应在多大程度上接受褒贬——至今仍是激烈辩论的话题。无可否认，他是美国经济剧烈变动期的关键人物，而那个时代围绕如何治理经济亦深陷意识形态分歧。

At the peak of his fame, as the economy boomed in the late 1990s, his merest phrase could send the markets sharply up or down, and his face, behind thick glasses, was as familiar as any movie star’s.

上世纪90年代末经济繁荣巅峰期，他声望如日中天，一言一行皆可引发市场剧烈波动；他那副厚镜片后的面孔就像电影明星一样家喻户晓。

In public, he often spoke in an elliptical jargon that even his fellow economists had trouble deciphering.

公开场合他常以晦涩含糊的术语发言，连同行经济学家都难以参透。

Behind the scenes in Washington, Greenspan was a master of the political power game. Schooled by his experiences as a policy adviser to Richard Nixon’s 1968 presidential campaign and his role as President Gerald Ford’s chief economist, he developed into a wily operator who skillfully protected the Fed’s independence while shaping the agendas of successive presidents and steering legislation on Capitol Hill.

在华盛顿的幕后，格林斯潘是政治权力游戏的宗师。早年他曾担任尼克松1968年竞选政策顾问及福特总统首席经济学家，这使他磨炼成老练操盘手——既巧妙维护美联储独立性，又塑造历任总统议程，推动国会立法。

His predecessor, Paul A. Volcker, had established that the central bank could hold off political pressure for lower interest rates with a tight-money strategy in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the process, Volcker gave the Fed tremendous credibility in the financial markets and bequeathed to Greenspan plenty of room to shape policy in Washington.

他的前任保罗·沃尔克在20世纪70年代末和80年代初证明，央行可以通过紧缩货币政策来抵御来自政治层面的降息压力。在此过程中，沃尔克为美联储在金融市场赢得了极高的信誉，也为格林斯潘在华盛顿制定政策留下了很大的空间。

Greenspan used his influence shrewdly on issues that, strictly speaking, went beyond his mandate at the Fed, weighing in regularly to shape policy on taxes, the budget deficit and trade. A Republican with strong libertarian leanings — in his younger days he was an acolyte of Ayn Rand, and he was appointed to the Fed by President Ronald Reagan — he nonetheless managed to infuriate Republicans as well as Democrats even as he won reappointment from presidents of both parties.

格林斯潘将其影响力巧妙地延伸至严格意义上超越美联储授权的事务，频繁就制定税收、预算赤字和贸易政策表态。身为带强烈自由意志主义倾向的共和党人——青年时曾是安·兰德的追随者，由里根总统提名入主美联储，他虽然接连获得两党总统的连任提名，但两党人士都曾对他大为不满。

1974年的格林斯潘，当时美国不仅正经历“水门事件”的政治冲击，还面临油价飙升和通胀高企的经济冲击。

Alan Greenspan worked all the angles, cultivating allies across the aisle and at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

艾伦·格林斯潘四面出击，从国会两党到白宫，都有他的盟友。

He dated Barbara Walters of ABC News in the late 1970s. In 1997, he married Mitchell, who by his account never entirely forgave him for discussing antitrust policy on their first date many years earlier; their wedding was presided over by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Mitchell is Greenspan’s only immediate survivor.

70年代末他曾与ABC新闻的芭芭拉·沃尔特斯交往；1997年与米切尔结婚——据他所言，米切尔从未完全原谅他首次约会大谈反垄断政策。婚礼由鲁思·巴德·金斯伯格大法官主持。米切尔是他唯一在世的直系亲属。

He was an avid tennis player, picking the game up in earnest on the White House court while serving in the Ford administration and pursuing it in spirited competition well into his 80s against a succession of Treasury secretaries and senior officials from both parties.

他是狂热的网球爱好者，在福特政府任职时曾在白宫球场认真练球，此后数十年常与历届财长及两党高官激战，一直打到80多岁。

He eschewed formulas and rules other central bankers often relied upon in favor of a more intuitive approach based on deep analysis of data about decisions being made by businesses, consumers and investors.

他摒弃其他央行行长依赖的公式与规则，倾向于凭直觉——建立在对企业、消费者及投资者决策的深层数据分析之上——制定政策。

Alan Greenspan was born on March 6, 1926, in New York City. He was the only child of Herbert and Rose (Goldsmith) Greenspan. His parents divorced when he was 5, and he was raised by his mother in the Washington Heights section of Manhattan.

艾伦·格林斯潘1926年3月6日生于纽约市，是赫伯特与罗斯·格林斯潘的独子（其母旧姓戈德史密斯）。他五岁时父母离异，母亲在曼哈顿华盛顿高地将他抚养长大。

With the enthusiastic encouragement of his mother, he became an accomplished musician in his teenage years. After graduating from George Washington High School, he went on to the Juilliard School and spent several years playing saxophone in a swing band.

在母亲鼓励下，青少年时他已成为一名出色的音乐人。自乔治·华盛顿高中毕业后，他入读茱莉亚学院，在一支摇摆爵士乐队中吹奏萨克斯管多年。

During the band’s gigs, Greenspan would spend breaks reading books he had borrowed from the library. “And one day I got a book out on business, finance or something on the stock market,” he said in a 1989 interview with The New York Times Magazine, “and I found it really fascinating.”

他常在演出间隙阅读从图书馆借的书。“有一天借了本商业、金融或股市相关的书，”1989年他对《纽约时报杂志》说，“发现真的特别迷人。”

Recognizing that economics might prove a more fruitful field for him than music, Greenspan left Juilliard and entered New York University, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in 1948 and a master’s in 1950, both in economics. He started work on his doctorate at Columbia University, where he studied under Arthur Burns, who would later become Fed chair. Greenspan eventually received a doctorate from NYU in 1977.

他意识到经济学可能比音乐更有前景，于是离开茱莉亚入读纽约大学，分别在1948年和1950年获得经济学学士和硕士学位、随后开始在哥伦比亚大学攻读博士，师从日后成为美联储主席的亚瑟·伯恩斯。他最终在1977年获纽约大学博士学位。

1998年，格林斯潘与他的妻子、记者安德莉亚·米切尔在华盛顿的英国大使馆。

Greenspan was married in 1952 to Joan Mitchell (later Joan Mitchell Blumenthal), a painter and writer; the marriage ended after a year.

1952年，他与画家兼作家琼·米切尔（后改名琼·米切尔·布鲁门塔尔）结婚，婚姻维持约一年。

His specialty was forecasting, built around intense study of arcane statistics rather than grand theories. As he was building a professional reputation during the 1950s, Greenspan was also developing an intense free-market philosophy, one that was heavily influenced by Ayn Rand, whose novels espoused laissez-faire capitalism built around a “rational selfishness,” or the idea that society functions best when individuals pursue their self-interest.

他的专长是预测，其依据是对晦涩的统计数据的深入研究，而非宏大理论。1950年代，随着职业声望日重，他也发展出一种强烈的自由市场哲学，深受安·兰德影响——其小说宣扬以“理性自私”为核心的放任资本主义，即相信人人为己，社会才能实现最优运转。

Through his first wife, Greenspan met Rand in 1952 and soon became part of her inner circle, spending hours debating the relationships among individuals, governments and markets.

格林斯潘通过首任妻子在1952年结识安·兰德，并进入其核心圈子，他们花了大量时间探讨个人、政府与市场的关系。

Greenspan first got involved in politics in 1967, when he signed on as an adviser to Nixon’s presidential campaign, an experience that exposed him to the trade-offs between ideological principle and winning campaigns. In 1974, shortly before Nixon resigned in the Watergate scandal, Greenspan was named chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a post he took up just after Ford took office, a period when the nation was enduring not just the political shock of Watergate but also the economic shock of soaring oil prices and roaring inflation.

1967年初涉政界、担任尼克松竞选顾问时，他体会到意识形态原则与胜选博弈间的取舍。1974年，就在尼克松因水门事件辞职前不久，格林斯潘被任命为白宫经济顾问委员会主席。他在福特就职后上任，彼时美国正经受水门政治震荡与油价飙升、通胀肆虐的经济冲击。

After Ford’s loss to Jimmy Carter in 1976, Greenspan remained active in Republican politics.

1976年福特败选卡特后，格林斯潘仍活跃于共和党政治圈。

After Reagan’s election as president, Greenspan was handed the sensitive job of heading a commission to keep the Social Security system from running out of money. In 1983, the commission recommended a mix of benefit cuts and tax increases. Given the real danger that Social Security would soon be unable to meet its obligations, most of the recommendations were adopted by Congress, and Greenspan’s stock in Washington went up.

里根当选后，格林斯潘受命领导一个委员会，致力于避免社保系统资金枯竭；1983年他提出了结合福利削减与增税的建议，鉴于社保面临迫在眉睫的兑付危机，大部分建议被国会采纳，格林斯潘在华盛顿声望大涨。

As early as 1986, there was speculation in Washington and on Wall Street that Greenspan would succeed Volcker as Federal Reserve chair should Volcker not be nominated for a third four-year term in 1987. When Volcker decided to step down, the Reagan administration viewed Greenspan as the obvious choice.

早在1986年，华盛顿与华尔街就已猜测，若沃尔克未能获第三个四年任期的提名，格林斯潘将接任美联储主席；沃尔克决定卸任后，里根政府视其为不二人选。

On Aug. 3, 1987, Greenspan’s nomination was approved by the Senate on a 91-2 vote, and eight days later he was sworn in as the Federal Reserve’s 13th chair.

1987年8月3日，参议院91:2通过对格林斯潘的提名，八天后他宣誓就任美联储第13任主席。

On Jan. 31, 2006, at 79, Greenspan engineered a small rise in interest rates at a Fed policy-setting session, his last act in office. A few hours later, the Senate confirmed his successor, Ben Bernanke. Greenspan departed with a souvenir — his chair from the central bank’s vast boardroom — and what seemed at the time to be the likelihood of a secure legacy.

2006年1月31日，79岁的格林斯潘在美联储议息会议上最后一次小幅加息，成为其任内谢幕之作。数小时后参议院确认继任者本·伯南克。格林斯潘带走了一件纪念品——他在央行大会议厅的椅子——以及当时看似稳固的历史评价。

Starbucks has more than 2,000 stores across South Korea, including one that overlooks a North Korean village, one in a century-old traditional street market and one that sits on the 99th floor of a glass skyscraper. In a first, they all closed early on Monday.

星巴克在韩国拥有2000多家门店，包括一家可以俯瞰朝鲜村庄的门店、一家位于拥有百年历史传统街头市场的门店，以及一家坐落在玻璃摩天大楼99层的门店。周一，所有这些门店都史无前例地提前关门了。

But the 3 p.m. closure did not mean extra time off for its 24,000 or so baristas, supervisors and corporate employees. Instead, they all had to do training on historical awareness and cultural sensitivity. It was damage control for a marketing debacle.

但下午3点闭店并不意味着该品牌约2.4万名咖啡师、主管和公司员工获得了额外的休息时间。他们都必须接受历史意识和文化敏感性培训。这是针对一场营销灾难所做的危机公关。

Last month, Starbucks unveiled a new line of tumblers that it called “Tank Day.” The campaign began on the anniversary of a massacre in 1980, when South Korea was a military dictatorship and used tanks to crack down on pro-democracy protesters in the southern city of Gwangju.

上个月，星巴克推出一款名为“坦克日”(Tank Day)的新系列随行杯。这一营销活动恰逢1980年大屠杀的纪念日，当时韩国处于军事独裁统治之下，政府动用坦克镇压了南部城市光州的民主示威者。

The backlash to the Starbucks promotion was immediate. South Korea had a brush with martial law less than 18 months ago and the criticism was fierce. Shinsegae Group, the conglomerate that owns Starbucks Korea, took down the ad, issued an apology and fired the Starbucks Korea chief executive. Later, it said that employees had used artificial intelligence to come up with the wording for the promotion and were not aware of the context. The training on Monday was supposed to be the fix.

星巴克此次推广活动立即引发强烈反弹。不到18个月前，韩国刚刚经历了一场戒严风波，因此批评声势极其猛烈。韩国星巴克所属的财阀新世界集团撤下广告，发表了道歉声明，并解雇了韩国星巴克首席执行官。随后，该集团表示，员工利用人工智能拟定促销文案，并不了解其背景。周一的培训是对此事的补救措施。

“Starbucks is trying to demonstrate its commitment to change and their sincerity to consumers and the public by taking the measures of closing stores to train all employees,” said Jongwoo Lee, a professor of marketing at Namseoul University. “Ultimately, the core focus here is restoring a damaged brand image.”

南首尔大学营销学教授李钟宇（音）表示：“通过采取关闭门店来培训全体员工的措施，星巴克试图向消费者和公众展示改变的决心和诚意。归根结底，核心目的是修复受损的品牌形象。”

Starting last week, Starbucks had put up signs about the shorter schedule. At about 2:40 p.m. on Monday, baristas at a store at Seoul Station, a busy transportation hub, started telling customers about the early closing. Ten minutes later, workers began closing the window shutters and only accepted takeout orders. At 2:58 p.m., they announced they were closed.

从上周开始，星巴克就张贴了缩短营业时间的告示。周一下午2点40分左右，繁忙的交通枢纽首尔站内的一家星巴克门店里，咖啡师开始通知顾客提早闭店的消息。10分钟后，店员们开始拉下卷帘门，只接受外带订单。下午2点58分，他们宣布停止营业。

Most customers seemed surprised. “I’ve never heard of ‘Tank Day’ and didn’t know that they would be closing” said Ko Jin-sun, 65, who was visiting from the city of Gumi and was drinking an iced Americano from a to-go cup.

大多数顾客似乎都感到惊讶。来自龟尾市的65岁游客高镇善（音）正拿着外带杯喝着冰美式咖啡，她说：“我从未听说过‘坦克日’，也不知道他们会关门。”

Inside the store, according to a Starbucks spokesman, employees were scheduled to watch recordings of talks by two professors from Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul.

据星巴克发言人透露，在门店内部，员工们被安排观看首尔成均馆大学两位教授的讲座录像。

“In many cases, these issues arise because companies fail to properly understand society, its sensitivity, historical events, collective memories or pain points,” said Jeong-Woo Koo, who teaches sociology and spoke during the cultural sensitivity portion of the training. “Ultimately, it comes down to how well a corporation can read society.”

在文化敏感性培训部分发表讲话的社会学教授具廷禹表示：“在许多情况下，出现这些问题是因为企业未能正确理解社会、社会敏感性、历史事件、集体记忆或痛点。归根结底，这取决于企业能否正确解读社会。”

Oh Jeyeon, who teaches contemporary Korean history, gave a lecture on major events since the 1950s for the historical awareness component of the training. He declined to comment.

教授韩国现代史的吴济渊（音）在历史意识培训部分做了关于1950年代以来重大事件的讲座。他拒绝发表评论。

But the company is not out of the woods yet. The police are investigating Shinsegae executives on charges of defamation, insulting the bereaved families of the victims of the Gwangju massacre and violating the Special Act on the 5.18 Democratization Movement.

但星巴克目前仍未走出困境。警方正在调查新世界集团的高管，指控他们涉嫌诽谤、侮辱光州大屠杀受害者遗属，以及违反《518民主化运动特别法》。

Andy Burnham has twice run unsuccessfully for the leadership of Britain’s governing Labour Party. Now his decisive victory in a special parliamentary election puts him within reach not just of that goal, but of entering Downing Street as prime minister.

安迪·伯纳姆曾两度竞选英国执政党工党党首，均告失败。如今，他在一次议会补选中取得决定性胜利，这不仅让他距离实现这一目标更近了一步，甚至有望入主唐宁街，成为首相。

A fluent communicator known for his bonhomie and charisma, Mr. Burnham has for nine years been mayor of Greater Manchester, where he cultivated an image of optimism, activism and the type of authentic plain speaking characteristic of northern England.

伯纳姆以善于沟通、平易近人、魅力十足著称，担任大曼彻斯特市长已有九年，在此期间塑造出乐观、积极作为以及英格兰北部典型直率风格的形象。

With a seat in Parliament representing Makerfield, in northwest England, Mr. Burnham will need the support of 81 fellow Labour lawmakers to mount a leadership challenge to the country’s unpopular prime minister, Keir Starmer.

如今，他作为英格兰西北部梅克菲尔德选区的议员重返议会。若要向不受欢迎的首相基尔·斯塔默发起党首挑战，他还需要获得81名工党议员的支持。

Supporters see Mr. Burnham — who in Manchester won the nickname “king of the North” for his defense of the area during the Covid-19 pandemic — as Labour’s potential savior against the populist right-wing Reform U.K. party, led by Nigel Farage. Critics portray Mr. Burnham as a political chameleon who would face the same economic constraints that have stymied Mr. Starmer’s lackluster government, and the same restless, impatient electorate.

支持者认为，伯纳姆——这位因在新冠疫情期间为曼彻斯特地区据理力争而被冠以“北境之王”称号的人——有可能成为工党抵御奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的右翼民粹主义政党英国改革党的救星。批评者则将其描绘为政治变色龙，称他同样将面临那些使斯塔默政府陷入困境、表现乏善可陈的经济掣肘，以及同样焦躁不安、缺乏耐心的选民。

Either way, he would be a different kind of leader from the one he wants to replace.

无论如何，他与其意图取代的那位领导者将是截然不同的类型。

“He’s just optimistic and happy and seems to enjoy being a politician,” said John McTernan, an adviser to Tony Blair when he was prime minister and someone who has known Mr. Burnham since his days as a researcher for a lawmaker in south London. “Leaders either inspire you, or they slightly depress you,” Mr. McTernan added, noting that there had been several recent prime ministers “who didn’t really seem to enjoy it” — Mr. Starmer included.

“他就是乐观、开心，看起来很享受从政这件事，”曾在托尼·布莱尔担任首相期间任顾问的约翰·麦克特南说。麦克特南自伯纳姆在伦敦南部为一名议员担任助理研究员时便与之相识。“领导人要么能激励你，要么会让你感到有点压抑，”麦克特南补充道，指出近几任首相“看起来并不真的享受这份工作”，其中就包括斯塔默。

马克菲尔德议会席位补选前夕，该选区的一条街道。

Mr. Burnham was born in Liverpool in 1970, to a father who was a phone engineer and a mother who was a doctor’s receptionist. He was raised in Culcheth, a village in Cheshire not far from Makerfield. Of Irish heritage, he attended Roman Catholic state schools and has spoken of his Catholicism, including meeting Pope Francis in 2023.

伯纳姆1970年出生于利物浦，父亲是一名电话工程师，母亲是一家诊所的前台。他在距离梅克菲尔德不远的柴郡村庄卡尔切斯长大。伯纳姆拥有爱尔兰血统，就读于天主教公立学校，他曾多次谈及自己的天主教信仰，包括2023年觐见教宗方济各。

“My mum was with me, and even though I’m not a Catholic in that full sense of the word, I felt the magnetic pull of the Vatican,” he said, likening his faith to his lifelong devotion to Everton soccer club. If you stop going to matches, he added, “you’re still an Evertonian; you can stop going to church but you’re still a Catholic.”

“我母亲当时和我在一起。尽管我并非严格意义上的天主教徒，但我仍然感受到梵蒂冈那种强烈的吸引力，”他说，并将这种信仰比作他对埃弗顿足球俱乐部终身不渝的热爱。他补充道，即便你不再去看比赛，“你依然是埃弗顿球迷；你可以不再去教堂，但你依然是天主教徒。”

Mr. Burnham won a place to study English at the University of Cambridge and after graduating, took a familiar path to political prominence, first as a researcher for Tessa Jowell, a lawmaker in south London, then as an adviser to the then-culture secretary Chris Smith.

伯纳姆考入剑桥大学攻读英语专业，毕业后走上了一条通往政坛的熟悉路径：先是在伦敦南部议员泰莎·乔威尔手下做研究员，随后成为时任文化大臣克里斯·史密斯的顾问。

While at Cambridge he met Marie-France Van Heel, who was born in the Netherlands, and they later married and had three children.

在剑桥期间，他认识了出生于荷兰的玛丽-弗朗斯·范希尔。两人后来步入婚姻，育有三个子女。

“When my wife got pregnant we actually hadn’t planned to have children at that time because I felt stability was important. We got married in October 2000 when Jimmy was 8 months old and I was in a difficult battle to win the nomination,” Mr. Burnham told The Guardian in 2009, referring to his efforts to run for Parliament.

“妻子怀孕时，我们其实并没有计划那个时候要孩子，因为我觉得稳定很重要。2000年10月，我们结婚了，那时吉米才八个月大，而我正经历一场艰难的提名争夺战，”伯纳姆2009年对《卫报》说，指的是他竞选议员席位的经历。

After he won election in 2001, representing Leigh, a northern district close to where he was raised, he became a junior minister in the New Labour government of Tony Blair. He was promoted to the cabinet under Gordon Brown and served as chief secretary to the Treasury, as secretary for culture, media and sport, and then as health secretary.

他在2001年当选议员，代表的是靠近家乡的北方选区利，随后，他进入托尼·布莱尔领导的新工党政府担任初级部长。戈登·布朗执政期间，他获提拔入阁，先后担任财政部首席秘书，文化、媒体和体育大臣以及卫生大臣。

In 2009 Mr. Burnham was heckled at a memorial service on the 20th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster, which resulted in the deaths of 97 Liverpool F.C. soccer fans in a stadium crush. It made a deep impression, convincing him that the families deserved justice after the police, investigators and the news media tried to depict the victims as hooligans and to blame them for the disaster. Pressure from Mr. Burnham helped secure a second inquiry.

2009年，在希尔斯堡惨案20周年纪念仪式上，伯纳姆遭遇了嘘声。那场球场踩踏事故导致97名利物浦足球俱乐部球迷死亡。这件事对他影响极深，让他相信这些遇难者家属理应获得公正对待，而此前警方、调查人员以及媒体曾试图将受害者描绘成足球流氓，并把惨案归咎于他们自己。伯纳姆的持续施压最终推动了第二次调查的展开。

After Labour lost the general election in 2010, Mr. Burnham ran for party leader, coming in fourth. In 2015 he tried again and was the early front-runner, only to lose to the left-winger Jeremy Corbyn, on whose team he later served.

2010年工党在大选中落败后，伯纳姆首次竞选党首，最终排名第四。2015年他再次参选，初期领跑，却最终输给了左翼政治人物杰里米·科尔宾，后来他还曾在科尔宾手下任职。

In 2017 Mr. Burnham left Parliament after deciding his future lay outside Westminster, and he was elected as mayor of Greater Manchester.

2017年，伯纳姆认为自己的未来不在威斯敏斯特，于是辞去议员议席，随后当选大曼彻斯特市长。

Robert Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said Mr. Burnham had presided over a thriving local economy there, and had showed his political skills by increasing control and regulation of the city’s buses — winning a fight with transportation companies in the process.

曼彻斯特大学政治学教授罗伯特·福特表示，伯纳姆主政期间当地经济蓬勃发展，他在推动城市公交系统的管控和监管方面也展示出政治手腕——在此过程中与交通运营企业展开博弈并获得胜利。

“He turned what could have been a rather bland technocratic bit of policy — believe me, if Keir Starmer had been there it would have been — into a David versus Goliath fight,” Professor Ford said. “His big strength is he is very effective communicator, a very effective storyteller; he’s good at giving voters a sense of who he is, who he’s for, and what he’s trying to do.”

“他把一项可能相当枯燥的技术官僚政策——相信我，换成基尔·斯塔默来弄就是那样——变成了一场大卫与歌利亚式的战斗，”福特教授说。“他最大的优势是非常善于沟通，非常会讲故事；他擅长让选民了解他是谁、他代表谁，以及他想做什么。”

“In all these respects,” Professor Ford said, “he is quite a contrast with the incumbent Labour prime minister.”

福特教授说：“在所有这些方面，他都与现任工党首相形成鲜明对比。”

英国首相基尔·斯塔默、前副首相安杰拉·雷纳与伯纳姆在一起，摄于今年4月。

Mr. Burnham also led from the front during the pandemic, complaining that government lockdowns were penalizing regions like his, and making a speech in central Manchester that became famous.

疫情期间，伯纳姆也身先士卒，痛批政府的封锁措施让曼彻斯特这样的地区付出了不成比例的代价，并在曼彻斯特市中心发表了一场著名的演讲。

Perhaps the most consistent criticism leveled against Mr. Burnham, who served under three very different Labour leaders in Mr. Blair, Mr. Brown and Mr. Corbyn, is that he is politically malleable.

对伯纳姆最持久的批评或许在于：他先后效力于布莱尔、布朗和科尔宾三位风格迥异的工党领袖，因此被认为政治立场过于多变。

In 2022, after the last soccer World Cup, Mr. Starmer himself poked fun at his former colleague. In a speech to reporters, Mr. Starmer joked that Mr. Burnham “got to see his boyhood team Argentina win the World Cup” but that “it was a mixed bag because he also got to see his boyhood team France lose the final and his boyhood teams Morocco and Croatia lose in the semis.”

2022年世界杯结束后，斯塔默本人甚至拿这位老同事开玩笑。在一次记者会上，斯塔默调侃道，伯纳姆“看到了自己儿时支持的阿根廷队夺得世界杯”，但“这也是喜忧参半，因为他还看到了自己儿时支持的法国队输掉决赛，以及自己儿时支持的摩洛哥队和克罗地亚队在半决赛出局”。

Mr. McTernan acknowledged that Mr. Burnham’s reputation is of a politician who “likes people to like him” but said: “A people pleaser as a politician is much better than a people hater.”

麦克特南承认，伯纳姆给人的印象确实是一个“喜欢让别人喜欢自己”的政治人物。但他补充说：“一个讨好型政客总比一个讨人嫌的政客强。”

One common thread through Mr. Burnham’s career has been the idea that British politics and the news media is too London-centric, and that regional inequality has damaged the country, a point he made in his first speech to Parliament in 2001. During one recent interview Mr. Burnham said Britain had been “on the wrong path for 40 years.”

伯纳姆职业生涯中贯穿始终的一个主题是，英国政治和新闻媒体过于以伦敦为中心，地区不平等损害了国家——这一点他在2001年首次议会演讲中就曾提及。在最近的一次采访中，伯纳姆称英国“走了40年的弯路”。

本月，工党候选人安迪·伯纳姆与一位居民在梅克菲尔德选区。

Mr. Burnham raised concern among some last year when he said that the Labour Party ought to get “beyond being in hock to the bond markets” — a phrase he has subsequently said was misinterpreted. More recently he appeared hazy over an aspect of economic policy in one BBC interview. But in Manchester he pursued business-friendly policies to attract investment.

去年，伯纳姆曾引发一些人担忧，他说工党应该“摆脱受债券市场掣肘的局面”——后来他表示这句话被误解了。最近，他在一次BBC采访中对经济政策某个方面的回应显得含糊不清。但在曼彻斯特，他一直推行亲商政策以吸引投资。

According to Professor Ford, as a mayor, Mr. Burnham “got relatively used to saying whatever was in his mind” but, now has “been getting a rather sharp lesson in the need to weigh his words more carefully.”

福特教授认为，作为市长，伯纳姆“比较习惯于想到什么说什么”，但现在“正在接受一堂相当严厉的课程——那就是必须更加谨慎地权衡自己的言辞”。

How the skills he showed in Manchester would prepare him for the top job in British politics is hard to predict.

至于他在曼彻斯特展现出的能力究竟能在多大程度上帮助他胜任英国政坛最高职位，目前仍难以预测。

“It’s very different when you are sailing into the storm of 10 Downing Street, where there will be 150 issues on your desk every day,” Professor Ford said. “You don’t really get that much control over which ones to pick fights over, and you have no time to think.”

“当你驶入唐宁街10号那场风暴中心时，一切都截然不同。每天都会有150个问题摆在你的办公桌上，”福特教授说。“你根本没有太多空间去决定要挑哪一场仗来打，而且你也没有时间慢慢思考。”

The Trump administration temporarily lifted oil sanctions against Iran on Monday in a sharp reversal of U.S. policy that could provide Iran with an economic boon after years of having to sell at a discount to buyers who risked running afoul of the United States.

特朗普政府于周一暂时解除了对伊朗的石油制裁，这标志着美国政策的剧烈转变，可能为伊朗带来经济利好——多年来，伊朗不得不以折扣价格向那些冒着触怒美国风险的买家出售石油。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the 60-day sanctions exemption, which authorizes the purchase of Iranian oil in U.S. dollars, giving Iran greater access to American currency, was the result of “ongoing productive” talks with Iran in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.

财政部长贝森特表示，这项为期60天的制裁豁免允许使用美元购买伊朗石油，使伊朗更容易获得美元，这是在瑞士布尔根施托克与伊朗进行的“持续且富有成效”的谈判所达成的结果。

Vice President JD Vance, who has been leading the U.S. negotiating team in Bürgenstock, said that Tehran had agreed to allow United Nations inspectors to visit Iran’s nuclear sites. He called that development “a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran.”

在布尔根施托克一直领导美国谈判团队的副总统万斯表示，德黑兰已同意允许联合国督察员访问伊朗的核设施。他称这一进展是“美国人民的重大里程碑，也是永久终止伊朗核武器计划的第一步”。

President Trump also made the claim, posting Monday on social media: “Everybody is fully aware that Iran will agree to have Major Weapons Inspections in order to ensure ‘Nuclear Honesty’ long into the future.”

特朗普总统也做出了类似声明，他周一在社交媒体上发帖称：“大家都非常清楚，伊朗将同意接受重大武器核查，确保未来长期的‘核诚实’。”

But it was not clear if nuclear inspectors would travel to Iran. The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, did not immediately respond to the comments by Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance. And the spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, Esmail Baghaei, told Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, that Tehran had made “no new commitments” on nuclear inspections, and that any engagement with U.N. inspectors would take place “under existing procedures.”

但目前尚不清楚核查人员是否会前往伊朗。联合国核监督机构国际原子能机构没有立即对特朗普和万斯的言论作出回应。此外，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴盖伊告诉伊朗国家通讯社IRNA，德黑兰在核检查方面“没有做出新承诺”，与联合国督察员的任何接触都将在“现有程序下”进行。

At a news conference in Bürgenstock, Mr. Vance also described new lines of communication established to de-escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and in Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, appear to have eased their attacks. Those two issues have complicated the delicate cease-fire between the United States and Iran.

在布尔根施托克的新闻发布会上，万斯还介绍了为缓解霍尔木兹海峡及黎巴嫩紧张局势而建立的新沟通渠道——在黎巴嫩，以色列与伊朗支持的民兵组织黎巴嫩真主党似乎都减轻了攻击力度。这两个问题曾使美伊之间脆弱的停火协议变得更加棘手。

“This is a work in progress,” Mr. Vance said, adding that the new process in Lebanon would help “ensure it doesn’t spiral out of control in the future.”

“这是一项正在推进的工作，”万斯说，他还说，在黎巴嫩的新流程将有助于“确保未来局势不会走向失控”。

Overall, Mr. Vance said, the negotiations with Iran that began on Sunday had set a “very good foundation” for a final peace deal. Qatari and Pakistani officials, who mediated the talks, said that “encouraging progress has been made.”

万斯表示，总的来说，自周日开始的对伊谈判为最终的和平协议奠定了“非常好的基础”。负责调解谈判的卡塔尔和巴基斯坦官员表示，“已经取得了令人鼓舞的进展”。

U.N. inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites and the lifting of American sanctions would effectively restore key parts of a nuclear agreement that the Obama administration struck with Iran in 2015. Mr. Trump withdrew the United States from that agreement in 2018, and declared on social media as recently as April that it was “one of the Worst Deals ever.”

联合国对伊朗核设施的视察以及美国取消制裁实际上将恢复奥巴马政府在2015年与伊朗达成的核协议的核心部分。特朗普于2018年宣布美国退出该协议，今年4月还在社交媒体上宣称它是“有史以来最糟糕的交易之一”。

Iran began limiting nuclear inspections after Mr. Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord. Iran then blocked I.A.E.A. inspectors from its nuclear sites after Israel and the United States bombed the sites during a 12-day war in June 2025.

在特朗普退出2015年核协议后，伊朗开始限制核视察活动。在2025年6月一场为期12天的战争中，以色列和美国轰炸了伊朗的核设施，随后伊朗彻底阻止了国际原子能机构督察员进入其核设施。

Iranian officials had accused the I.A.E.A. of providing political cover for those attacks because they came after the agency passed a resolution saying Tehran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations.

伊朗官员曾指责国际原子能机构为美以袭击提供了政治掩护，因为在袭击发生前，该机构通过了一项决议，称德黑兰未能履行其核不扩散义务。

The fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has been unknown since the 12-day war. Iran says the material was destroyed or buried in the bombings. As part of a memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran last week, Tehran had agreed to dilute that stockpile under the supervision of I.A.E.A. inspectors.

自那场12天的战争以来，伊朗高浓缩铀库存的去向一直不得而知。伊朗表示，这些材料在轰炸中已被摧毁或掩埋。作为美伊上周签署的谅解备忘录的一部分，德黑兰已同意在国际原子能机构督察员的监督下稀释这批库存。

Iran has repeatedly declared that its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes and its president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said on Sunday that Iran would “never back down” from its right to enrich uranium. The head of the I.A.E.A., Rafael M. Grossi, was in Bürgenstock over the weekend, speaking to Switzerland’s foreign minister.

伊朗已多次声明其核计划完全用于民用目的，其总统马苏德·佩泽什基安周日表示，伊朗在浓缩铀的权利上“绝不退让”。国际原子能机构负责人拉斐尔·格罗西周末也在布尔根施托克，同瑞士外交部长进行了会谈。

The memorandum of understanding also committed the Trump administration to temporarily lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil industry that it had imposed in an effort to throttle Iran’s economy. On Monday, the Treasury Department issued a 60-day license allowing the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil as part of that preliminary agreement. The change could provide Iran with a windfall after years of being forced to sell discounted oil to buyers willing to risk breaching U.S. economic restrictions.

该谅解备忘录还促使特朗普政府暂时解除针对伊朗石油工业的美国制裁，这些制裁旨在扼杀伊朗经济。周一，美国财政部签发了一份为期60天的许可证，允许生产、运输和销售伊朗石油，作为该初步协议的一部分。多年来，伊朗被迫以折扣价向愿意冒着违反美国经济限制风险的买家出售石油，此次调整或将为伊朗带来意外之财。

The Trump administration had signaled that it was prepared to provide Iran with financial rewards if it reopened the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route that Tehran effectively closed during the war, driving up global energy prices.

特朗普政府此前曾发出信号表示，如果伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，美国准备向其提供经济回报。霍尔木兹海峡是一条关键的石油航运通道，德黑兰在战争期间实际上关闭了该海峡，从而推高了全球能源价格。

“Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country,” Mr. Bessent wrote on social media on Monday.

“伊朗已承诺确保霍尔木兹海峡的自由开放通行，并允许国际原子能机构(IAEA)督察员进入他们的国家，”贝森特周一在社交媒体上写道。

Iranian officials said they had made progress in Switzerland in their push to access $24 billion in frozen assets. Iran’s central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, told Tasnim, an Iranian news agency, on Monday that “the necessary memorandums were signed” during the first day of talks to begin the release of assets.

伊朗官员表示，他们在瑞士推动解冻240亿美元资产的工作取得了进展。伊朗中央银行行长阿卜杜勒纳赛尔·赫马蒂周一告诉伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社，在第一天的谈判中“签署了必要的备忘录”， 以启动资产解冻程序。

U.S. officials have not confirmed if they will release Iranian assets. But Mr. Vance said that if assets are released, Iran would have to spend them on U.S. goods, such as soy and wheat, and would be prohibited from using them to fund terrorism.

美国官员尚未证实他们是否会释放伊朗资产。但万斯先表示，如果资产被解冻，伊朗必须将这些资金用于购买美国商品，例如大豆和小麦，且不得将其用于资助恐怖主义。

“If Iranian assets are ever unfrozen, they’re going to go to make American farmers richer and to feed the Iranian people,” Mr. Vance said, crediting that idea to Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and a key U.S. negotiator with Iran. The United States and Qatar would oversee the process, Mr. Vance added.

“如果伊朗的资产被解冻，它们会被用来让美国的农民变得更富有，并为伊朗人民提供粮食，”万斯说，他将这个想法归功于贾里德·库什纳——特朗普总统的女婿、美国对伊谈判的关键谈判代表。万斯还说，美国和卡塔尔将监督这一过程。

As he prepared to leave Switzerland, Mr. Vance said that some U.S. and Iranian officials would remain in the country to continue technical discussions. Both sides have committed to reaching a final agreement within 60 days.

在准备离开瑞士时，万斯表示，部分美国和伊朗官员将留在该国继续进行技术性讨论。双方已承诺在60天内达成最终协议。

“As much as this place is very beautiful, I can’t stay here for the next 60 days,” Mr. Vance said.

“虽然这个地方非常美丽，但我没办法接下来的60天都待在这里，”万斯说。

Iran’s top negotiators, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, arrived in Oman on Monday for discussions on a new mechanism to oversee ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media reported.

据伊朗国家媒体报道，伊朗首席谈判代表、伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫和外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐于周一抵达阿曼，就监督霍尔木兹海峡船只通行的新机制进行讨论。

Iran has said it wants to charge “fees” in exchange for unspecified “services” it would provide in the waterway. Mr. Trump has said he wants the strait to be “permanently toll-free.”

伊朗表示，希望就该国在该水道提供的未具体说明的“服务”收取“费用”。特朗普则表示，他希望该海峡能够“永久免费通行”。

Most fans watching Curaçao’s 0-0 draw against Ecuador on Saturday night focused on the Curaçaoan goalkeeper, whose 15-save effort was compared to some of the greatest displays in World Cup history.

在上周六晚库拉索0-0战平厄瓜多尔的比赛中，大多数球迷的目光都聚焦在库拉索队门将身上，他全场15次扑救的惊艳表现，被拿来与世界杯历史上一些最伟大的表演相提并论。

But for some fans in China, the main draw of the match was the tournament debut of Ma Ning, 47, the World Cup’s highest-ranking Chinese referee.

但对一些中国球迷来说，这场比赛的最大看点是47岁的马宁迎来他的世界杯首秀，他是本届世界杯上级别最高的中国裁判。

Because China did not qualify for the World Cup, Ma has become the country’s de facto representative at the tournament. His popularity has given him an unusually high-profile turn in a role that typically avoids the spotlight.

由于中国队未能晋级世界杯，马宁成为了中国在这一大赛上的事实代表。他的高人气使他在担任这个通常低调的角色时获得了罕见的高关注度。

Ma was part of the first Chinese refereeing team to officiate a match at this World Cup, along with assistant referee Zhou Fei and video assistant referee Fu Ming. He is also the first Chinese referee to be selected for two consecutive World Cups (he was chosen for the 2022 tournament but did not receive an on-field assignment), and the first to officiate a World Cup match since 2002.

马宁是本届世界杯上首支执法比赛的中国裁判组的一员，另外两人是助理裁判周飞和视频助理裁判傅明。他也是首位连续入选两届世界杯的中国裁判（他曾入选2022年世界杯，但未获得场上执法任务），并且是自2002年以来首位执法世界杯比赛的中国裁判。

This was all cause for celebration in a country of 1.4 billion people whose team has not qualified for the World Cup since 2002, when it lost all three of its group stage games without scoring a goal.

对于这个拥有14亿人口的国家来说，这一切都值得庆祝，自2002年以来，中国队就再也没有晋级过世界杯，当时中国队在小组赛中三战全败，且一球未进。

Over the weekend, China’s state-run news media hailed the match in Kansas City, Mo., and the Chinese referees’ roles as a “historic milestone.” Some fans said on social media that they had tuned in just to watch Ma officiate.

周末期间，中国官方媒体赞扬了在密苏里州堪萨斯城举行的这场比赛以及中国裁判们的表现，称其为“历史性的里程碑”。一些球迷在社交媒体上表示，他们特意收看直播，就是为了看马宁执法。

On Saturday, several hashtags about his performance trended on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform. One of them, “Ma Ning issues two yellow cards in one minute,” referred to a sequence in the first half when he penalized both teams in quick succession.

周六，关于他执法的几个话题登上了中国社交媒体平台微博的热搜。其中一个话题“马宁一分钟出示两张黄牌”，指的是他在上半场接连处罚两队球员的连续判罚。

周六在密苏里州堪萨斯城，裁判马宁（左）在厄瓜多尔对阵库拉索的比赛中向厄瓜多尔球员示意。

Other social media users praised Ma for keeping his cool near the end of the half, when some members of the Ecuadorean team argued with him over a yellow card.

还有的社交媒体用户则称赞马宁在下半场临近结束时保持了冷静，当时厄瓜多尔队的一些成员因不满一张黄牌与他发生争执。

Ma will next take part in Tuesday’s match between England and Ghana, though on the sidelines as the fourth match official.

马宁接下来将参与周二英格兰对阵加纳的比赛，不过届时他将作为第四官员在场边协助。

Ma has amassed over 130,000 followers on Weibo and over 350,000 followers on Rednote, an Instagram-like platform in China. He has received a slew of sponsorship and endorsement deals, appearing in ads over the past few weeks for companies including Meituan, China’s largest food delivery company, and Castrol, a British oil company.

马宁在微博上吸引了超过13万粉丝，在类似Instagram的中国社交平台小红书上拥有超过35万粉丝。他获得了大量的赞助和代言合约，在过去几周里出现在包括中国最大的外卖公司美团以及英国石油公司嘉实多等企业的广告中。

Although Chinese fans are now rallying behind Ma, he has had his detractors. His nickname in China is “Card Master” for what some say is a tendency to penalize infractions with cards. In one 2015 Chinese Super League match in Shanghai, he issued nine yellow cards and three reds.

虽然中国球迷现在纷纷支持马宁，但他过去也曾遭遇批评。他在国内的绰号是“卡牌大师”，因为有人认为他有频繁出牌处罚犯规的倾向。在2015年上海举行的一场中超比赛中，他曾出示了九张黄牌和三张红牌。

Before the World Cup, some fans joked that Ma traveled to matches with two suitcases, both filled with the cards.

在世界杯之前，一些球迷还开玩笑说，马宁去比赛时带了两个手提箱，里面装满了红黄牌。

So does he deserve the “Card Master” moniker?

那么，他配得上“卡牌大师”这个绰号吗？

According to Transfermarkt, a sports data site, Ma has issued 1,603 yellow cards and 55 red cards across 375 matches since 2009. That is about 4.3 yellow cards per match, higher than the average of about 3.5 per match that referees handed out at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, according to data from the site.

根据体育数据网站Transfermarkt的数据，自2009年以来，马宁在375场比赛中共出示了1603张黄牌和55张红牌。这相当于每场比赛出示约4.3张黄牌，高于该网站统计的2022年卡塔尔世界杯裁判场均约3.5张黄牌的水平。

By that measure, at least, the nickname fits.

至少从这个标准来看，这个绰号名副其实。

China took aim on Monday at a U.S. government program to reduce American reliance on Chinese imports for rare earth magnets, a move that risks reigniting trade tensions with President Trump.

周一，中国针对美国政府一项旨在减少美国对中国进口稀土磁体依赖的一项计划采取行动，此举有可能重新燃起与特朗普总统之间的贸易紧张局势。

New restrictions will prohibit Chinese companies from shipping certain rare earth metals to two companies that are leading the Trump administration’s efforts to revive the American rare earth industry.

新限制将禁止中国企业向两家公司运输特定的稀土金属，而这两家公司正引领着特朗普政府振兴美国稀土产业的工作。

The metals banned by China’s Ministry of Commerce are critical for a wide range of products from cars to military drones, and China controls nearly the entire global supply of them.

中国商务部禁止出口的这些金属对于从汽车到军用无人机等广泛产品至关重要，且中国几乎控制着全球这些金属的供应。

After meeting in South Korea with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, last October, Mr. Trump said China had agreed to resume supplying rare earth metals to the United States as needed. Chinese officials, however, never publicly described the agreement in such terms.

去年10月，特朗普在韩国与中国最高领导人习近平会晤后曾表示，中国已同意根据需要恢复向美国供应稀土金属。然而，中国官员从未在公开场合以这种措辞描述该协议。

A follow-up summit between the two leaders in Beijing last month produced no further progress on rare earth supplies.

上月，两国领导人在北京举行的后续峰会上未能就稀土供应取得进一步进展。

At last week’s Group of 7 summit in France, leaders of the major industrialized nations pledged to reduce their dependence on any supplier, calling for no more than 60 percent of rare earth imports to come from one country by 2030. The world relies on China for about 90 percent of their supply of so-called light rare earths, which are used in oil refining, glass polishing and magnet production.

在七国集团上周于法国举行的峰会上，主要工业化国家的领导人承诺减少对单一供应商的依赖，呼吁到2030年，来自单一国家的稀土进口份额不超过60%。全球大约90%的所谓轻稀土供应依赖中国，这些轻稀土用于石油炼化、玻璃抛光和磁体生产。

上周，七国集团各国领导人齐聚法国埃维昂莱班。

China also refines more than 98 percent of the world’s heavy rare earths, which are crucial additives in magnets and are also used in artificial intelligence computer chips, lasers and a wide range of other technologies. Beijing has wielded its dominance over heavy rare earths as a trade weapon for the past 14 months.

中国还精炼全球98%以上的重稀土，它们是磁体中至关重要的添加剂，同时也用于人工智能计算机芯片、激光器和广泛的其他技术中。在过去14个月里，北京一直将自身在重稀土领域的绝对优势用作贸易武器。

In April 2025, China imposed strict controls on the export of seven rare earth elements, most of them heavy rare earths, as well as magnets made from them. Beijing classified the materials as dual-use goods, meaning they have both military and civilian applications. Outside China, the restrictions disrupted production of cars, robots, military equipment and other products.

2025年4月，中国对七种稀土元素（其中大部分为重稀土）以及由其制成的磁体实施了严格的出口管制。北京将这些材料归类为两用物项，这意味着它们既有军事用途也有民用用途。在中国境外，这些限制扰乱了汽车、机器人、军事装备和其他产品的生产。

The action by China on Monday barred 10 American companies in all, including some with direct military ties, from purchasing additional dual-use products from China. On the list were the two largest American rare-earth companies: MP Materials and USA Rare Earth.

中国在周一采取的行动总共禁止了10家美国企业（其中包括一些与军方有直接联系的企业）从中国购买更多的两用产品。名单中包括美国最大的两家稀土公司：MP Materials和USA Rare Earth。

The Trump administration, including the Department of Defense, has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into both companies to try to restore domestic rare-earth magnet manufacturing capacity, which mostly shut down a quarter century ago.

包括国防部在内的特朗普政府已向这两家公司投入了数亿美元，试图恢复在美国国内的稀土磁体制造能力，美国的该产业在1/4世纪前已基本停产。

MP Materials and USA Rare Earth both declined to comment immediately on China’s announcement. The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.

MP Materials和USA Rare Earth均拒绝立即对中国的声明发表评论。美国国务院未回应置评请求。

在中国中南部江西省赣州市定南县，一座稀土加工厂。

MP Materials owns the main U.S. rare earths mine at Mountain Pass, Calif., along with a large refinery that extracts four light rare earth elements from ore. It is also building rare-earth magnet factories in Texas, initially to supply General Motors, and has an agreement to provide magnets for military contractors.

MP Materials拥有位于加利福尼亚州山口的主要美国稀土矿，以及一个从矿石中提取四种轻稀土元素的巨大精炼厂。该公司还在得克萨斯州建造稀土磁体工厂，最初是为了向通用汽车供货，并已达成协议为军工承包商提供磁体。

USA Rare Earth has restored dormant magnet-manufacturing equipment in Stillwater, Okla., and has pursued a series of acquisitions to build a domestic supply chain.

USA Rare Earth恢复了位于俄克拉荷马州斯蒂尔沃特闲置的磁体制造设备，并进行了一系列的收购，以构建国内供应链。

One pending deal, announced in April, would give the company control of Serra Verde, a Brazilian company that has started producing small quantities of dysprosium, a heavy rare earth used to make heat-resistant magnets. Lynas, an Australian company, has also begun producing small amounts, though far below the volumes required by major magnet factories.

今年4月宣布的一项待定交易将使该公司获得对Serra Verde的控制权，这是一家已经开始生产少量镝的巴西公司。镝是一种用于制造耐热磁体的重稀土。澳大利亚的莱纳斯公司也已开始少量生产，但远低于大型磁体工厂所需的产量。

The new restrictions create another legal barrier atop what has effectively become a near shutdown of Chinese supplies of key rare earths to the United States.

这些新限制措施在中国对美国的关键稀土供应实际上已近乎中断的基础上又制造了另一道法律壁垒。

Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show that shipments of dysprosium to the United States have been halted since April 2025. Dysprosium is needed in many automotive systems that operate at high temperatures, including power seats, steering systems and brakes.

中国海关总署的数据显示，自2025年4月以来，向美国运送镝的通道已被切断。在许多高温下运行的汽车系统中都需要镝，包括电动座椅、转向系统和刹车系统。

本月早些时候，USA Rare Earth首席执行官芭芭拉·汉普顿在巴黎近郊的凡尔赛宫与多位部长及企业高管进行了会谈。

Magnet manufacturers can substitute terbium, a more expensive heavy rare earth, for dysprosium. But Chinese customs data show that China has shipped no terbium to the United States since last October, when Beijing allowed a single six-metric-ton shipment timed to coincide with the summit in South Korea.

磁体制造商可以使用铽（一种更昂贵的重稀土）来替代镝。但中国海关数据表明，自去年10月以来，中国没有向美国运送过任何铽——当时北京曾批准了一次6公吨的单次运输，其时间恰好与在韩国举行的峰会相吻合。

“From the magnet producer side, there is little to no access to dysprosium,” said Wade Senti, president of Advanced Magnet Lab, a small manufacturer of rare-earth magnet wire for drones in Melbourne, Fla.

“从磁体生产商的角度来看，几乎完全无法获得镝，”先进磁体实验室总裁韦德·森蒂表示。该实验室是佛罗里达州墨尔本的一家小型企业，为无人机生产稀土磁体线。

Mr. Senti said his company had secured dysprosium from a recycler in Europe. But Advanced Magnet Lab produces several tons of magnets a year, while companies like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are preparing to produce as much as 10,000 tons a year.

森蒂先生表示，他的公司已经从欧洲的一家回收商那里确保了镝的供应。但先进磁体实验室每年仅生产数吨磁体，而像MP Materials和USA Rare Earth这样的公司准备将年产量提高到多达1万吨。

Manufacturers can sharply reduce, though not eliminate, their need for dysprosium or terbium through a technique called grain boundary diffusion. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are locked in a legal dispute over intellectual property rights related to that technology.

通过一种被称为“晶界扩散”的技术，制造商可以大幅减少、但不能完全消除对镝或铽的需求。MP Materials和USA Rare Earth正就与该技术相关的知识产权陷入法律纠纷。

China is also preparing to introduce even tighter global export restrictions on rare earths in November.

中国还准备在11月份推出对稀土更严格的全球出口限制。

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain announced his resignation on Monday, bowing to a mutiny inside his party and the threat of a direct challenge to his leadership of the country.

英国首相斯塔默于周一宣布辞职，此举是迫于党内反叛以及其领导地位面临直接挑战的威胁。

Mr. Starmer said he would remain as prime minister until a new party leader is selected, by September, rather than fight to remain in the job he won almost two years ago. His decision clears the way for Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade, extending a period of political turmoil for the country since it voted to leave the European Union in 2016.

斯塔默表示将继续担任首相至9月选出新的政党领袖，而非为保住近两年前赢得的职位而战。他的决定为英国迎来十年内的第七位首相扫清道路，延续了该国自2016年投票脱离欧盟以来政治动荡的时期。

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election,” Mr. Starmer said in brief remarks in front of No. 10 Downing Street, his voice breaking with emotion at times.

“我的政党现在提出的问题是，我是否是最适合带领大家迎接下一届大选的人选，”斯塔默在唐宁街10号门前发表简短的讲话时说，他的声音不时因情绪激动而哽咽。

“I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace,” he said. “That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party.”

“我已经听到了我的议会党团对这个问题的回答，我坦然接受这个结果，”他说。“正因如此，我将辞去工党领袖一职。”

The most likely replacement for Mr. Starmer is Andy Burnham, whose resounding victory last week in a special election energized his bid to oust the prime minister. Mr. Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester and one of Labour’s most popular politicians, received almost 55 percent of the vote in the Makerfield district.

最有可能接替斯塔默的人选是安迪·伯纳姆，他上周在特别选举中取得压倒性胜利，这为他挑战首相的竞选注入了动力。伯纳姆曾任大曼彻斯特市长，也是工党最受欢迎的政治人士之一，他在梅克菲尔德选区获得了近55%的选票。

It was not immediately clear when Mr. Starmer might leave Downing Street. He said he wanted nominations to replace him to open on July 9 and close when Parliament takes its summer break. A new Labour leader would then be elected by September and become prime minister. But if Mr. Burnham is the only candidate, he could take over as early as July.

目前尚不清楚斯塔默何时离开唐宁街。他表示，他希望接替他的提名于7月9日开始，并在议会进入夏季休会期时结束。随后，工党将在9月前选出新任党魁，并由其出任首相。但如果伯纳姆是唯一的候选人，他最早可能在7月接任。

Mr. Starmer’s tenure as prime minister began in 2024 when Labour won a large parliamentary majority and put an end to 14 years of Conservative Party government. But Labour earned a record-low vote share of 34 percent in that election, prompting analysts to call the victory a “loveless landslide.”

斯塔默的首相任期始于2024年，当时工党赢得了议会多数席位，结束了保守党14年的执政。但工党在那次选举中仅获得了34%的创纪录低得票率，促使分析人士将那次胜利称为“无爱的压倒性胜利”。

Mr. Starmer’s political standing was deeply damaged this year by revelations about his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States despite Mr. Mandelson’s close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender. But it was Labour’s devastating losses in elections to municipal councils in England and to the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, in May, that were the final straws for many members of his party.

今年，有关斯塔默决定任命彼得·曼德尔森为驻美大使的披露严重损害了他的政治声誉，因为曼德尔森与已定罪的性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦关系密切。但对许多工党成员来说，工党5月份在英格兰地方议会以及苏格兰和威尔士议会选举中的惨败才是最终的导火索。

In recent weeks, Mr. Starmer had repeatedly vowed to fight any challenge to his position.

最近几周，斯塔默曾多次誓言要抵御对他职位的挑战。

But in the end, he appeared to accept the political reality that came with being one of the least popular prime ministers in modern British history. He struggled with a sagging economy and criticism from his adversaries that he often backtracked on policies.

但最终，他似乎接受了作为现代英国历史上最不受欢迎的首相之一所带来的政治现实。他既要努力应对低迷的经济，又要应付对手批评他经常在政策上出尔反尔。

“I will do everything I can to ensure an orderly handover of power,” he said. “I will also give my successor my full and unequivocal support, knowing that they will inherit a Britain that is far stronger and fairer than the one I inherited.”

“我将尽一切努力确保权力的有序交接，”他说。“我也将向我的继任者提供全面且毫无保留的支持，因为我知道，他们将要接手的英国，比我接任时远为强大和公平。”

Here’s what else we are covering:

以下是我们正在报道的其他内容：

• Political rival: Wes Streeting. the former health secretary under Mr. Starmer and a potential challenger to lead the party, threw his support behind Mr. Burnham on Monday. He wrote on social media that Mr. Burnham was “committed to building an inclusive party that draws on the best of our political traditions” and that “he can win the fight of our lives against the forces of nationalism.”

· 政治对手：曾任斯塔默内阁卫生大臣的党魁潜在竞争者韦斯·斯特里廷在周一对伯纳姆表示支持。他在社交媒体上写道，伯纳姆“致力于建立一个吸取我们最佳政治传统的包容性政党”，并且“他能够赢得这场对抗民族主义势力的生死之战”。

• Economy: Markets were holding steady after Mr. Starmer’s announcement. The pound was slightly lower, but off earlier lows. Not much is known about Mr. Burnham’s economic policies or how they would impact Britain’s bond market.

· 经济：斯塔默宣布消息后，市场保持稳定。英镑汇率轻微下跌，但已脱离早盘低点。目前对伯纳姆的经济政策及其对英国债券市场的潜在影响所知甚少。

• Starmer’s legacy: In his remarks, Mr. Starmer defended his record, citing economic improvement, investment in health care, increased military spending, falling illegal immigration and other legislative accomplishments. But his time in office was increasingly defined by political decline, which left him looking weak, indecisive and not in command of his own party.

· 斯塔默的政治遗产：斯塔默在讲话中为自己的施政记录进行了辩护，提到了经济改善、医疗保健投资、增加军事开支、非法移民下降以及其他立法成就。但他在任期间的表现越来越被政治衰落所定义，这使他显得软弱、优柔寡断，且无法掌控自己的政党。

The ancient city of Khiva, in Uzbekistan’s dusty west, abounds with marvels. Intricate blue, green and orange mosaics shimmer in the sun. Colorful racks of fabrics adorn the crags of a 12th-century fortress. Bakers pull fragrant samsas, stuffed with meat and pumpkin, from tandoors.

在尘土飞扬的乌兹别克斯坦西部，古城希瓦处处是奇观。繁复的蓝、绿、橙色彩釉在阳光下熠熠生辉。色彩斑斓的织物架装点着一座12世纪堡垒的峭壁。面包师们从馕坑中取出香气扑鼻的撒姆萨烤包子，里面塞满了肉和南瓜。

Yet somehow I found myself in a stranger’s living room, watching Russian TV.

然而不知为何，我却坐在一位陌生人的客厅里，看着俄罗斯的电视节目。

I had been wandering the narrow streets of Khiva’s timeworn core when I spotted a soaring minaret, just outside the city’s mud-brick walls, that seemed like the perfect place for an aerial view. I searched for an entrance but found only a locked door.

当时我正在希瓦饱经风霜的老城区狭窄街道中漫步，忽然瞥见泥砖城墙外耸立着一座宣礼塔，似乎是俯瞰全景的绝佳地点。我四处寻找入口，却只找到一扇紧锁的门。

In English, I asked a man who was gardening nearby if there was another way in. He answered in Russian, which I don’t speak, and motioned for me to follow him.

我用英语询问附近一位正在打理花园的男子是否有其他入口。他用俄语回答了我——我不懂俄语——并示意让我跟他走。

But instead of showing me the entrance, he took me across the street and into his home. He sat me down in the living room, handed me a hunk of bread slathered with yogurt and turned on the television. For the next 20 minutes, we watched a comedy and communicated via hand gestures. Then he brought me to the door, gave me two dates wrapped in a paper towel and sent me on my way. I never got his name.

但他并没有带我去找入口，而是带我穿过街道进了他家。他让我在客厅坐下，递给我一大块抹了酸奶的面包，然后打开了电视。接下来的20分钟里，我们一起看了一档喜剧节目，靠手势交流。随后他把我带到门口，给了我两个用纸巾包着的椰枣，便送我离开了。我始终不知道他的名字。

I encountered similar acts of unexpected hospitality again and again during my trip to Uzbekistan in February. Like many younger travelers, I had chosen the country because I was seeking a destination with fewer crowds and tourist traps, and more spontaneity and adventure.

在我2月前往乌兹别克斯坦的旅途中，这种意想不到的热情好客屡次上演。就像许多年轻旅行者一样，我之所以选择这个国家，是因为我渴望一个没有那么多游客和套路，可以有更多即兴发挥和探险的目的地。

Those qualities, along with affordability relative to more popular destinations, have made Central Asia a major draw for millennial and Gen Z travelers in the last few years. Social media videos promoting horse treks and road trips through Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have racked up millions of views and likes, and record-breaking, albeit modest, numbers of tourists have flocked to the region.

正是由于这些特质，加上相较于热门目的地更为实惠的价格，中亚在过去几年里成为千禧一代和Z世代旅行者的心头好。推广穿越吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦骑马徒步和公路旅行的社媒视频获得了数百万的浏览和点赞，创纪录的游客——虽然绝对数量仍然不多——蜂拥而至。

But no Central Asian nation has gotten more attention, or better positioned itself to capitalize on it, than Uzbekistan.

但在中亚国家中，没有一个比乌兹别克斯坦获得更多关注，或者说更好地利用了这股热潮。

Since the country’s longtime dictator died in 2016, Uzbekistan has steadily opened up to foreign visitors. The government has sponsored influencers and travel bloggers. The inaugural Bukhara Biennial, on The New York Times 52 Places to Go in 2025 list, shined a spotlight on the country’s art and culture. Last year, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev ordered the construction of hundreds of new hotels, and this year Uzbekistan stopped requiring visas for U.S. citizens visiting for up to 30 days.

自该国长期执政的独裁者伊斯兰·卡里莫夫于2016年去世后，乌兹别克斯坦稳步向外国游客开放。政府赞助了网红和旅行博主。首届布哈拉双年展登上了《纽约时报》2025年必去52个地方榜单，让全球聚焦于该国的艺术与文化。去年，总统沙夫卡特·米尔济约耶夫下令建造数百家新酒店，今年乌兹别克斯坦对美国公民实施了30天免签政策。

Those efforts are paying off. Uzbekistan welcomed a record 11.7 million international visitors in 2025, up sharply from its prepandemic peak of 6.7 million in 2019, according to the country’s statistics agency. Fewer than 37,000 of last year’s visitors came from the United States, but that figure is more than double the 17,000 Americans who visited in 2019.

这些努力正在取得回报。根据该国的统计机构数据，2025年乌兹别克斯坦迎来了创纪录的1170万国际游客，较2019年疫情前670万的峰值大幅增长。去年仅有不到3.7万名游客来自美国，但这已是2019年的1.7万的一倍多。

After watching countless Instagram reels singing Uzbekistan’s praises as the “dazzling heart of the Silk Road,” I decided it was time to see the place for myself. I booked a nonstop flight from New York to Tashkent on Uzbekistan Airways.

在看了无数在Instagram上盛赞乌兹别克斯坦是“丝绸之路的璀璨之心”的视频后，我决定是时候亲自去看看这个地方了。我预订了乌兹别克斯坦航空公司从纽约直飞塔什干的航班。

Tashkent

塔什干

Leaps, Twirls and a Bustling Bazaar

跳跃、旋转与熙攘的集市

Uzbekistan’s sprawling, modern capital weaves together Silk Road splendor and Soviet austerity, and I could hardly wait to begin exploring. After settling into my room at HL 309 (820,000 Uzbek som, or about $67), a cozy hotel in the city center, I set out along the city’s broad boulevards for the Alisher Navoiy Theater, where I had ballet tickets.

乌兹别克斯坦的这座广阔、现代的首都交织着丝绸之路的辉煌与苏联时代的肃穆，我迫不及待地想要开始探索。在市中心舒适的HL 309酒店（82万乌兹别克索姆，约合430元人民币）安顿好后，我沿着宽阔的林荫大道前往阿里舍尔·纳沃伊剧院，我在那里订了芭蕾舞票。

Inside the lavish performance hall, I sat next to Zavqiya, 17, a high school student from Tashkent with a lot of questions about what I was doing there.

在奢华的演出大厅里，我坐在17岁的塔什干高中生扎夫基亚旁边，她对我在那里做什么充满了疑问。

“How did you even hear about Uzbekistan?” she asked me, in English, while we waited for the show to start.

“你是怎么听说乌兹别克斯坦的？”演出开始前，她用英语问我。

塔什干的阿里舍尔·纳沃伊剧院。

It was the first of many times I would hear variations of that sentiment, as many Uzbeks I met seemed to be grappling with their country’s booming international appeal.

这是我多次听到的类似感慨的第一次，因为我遇到的许多乌兹别克人似乎都对他们国家日益飙升的国际吸引力感到困惑。

Zavqiya had more questions, but we soon turned our attention to the stage, where an array of elaborately costumed ballerinas leaped and twirled in perfect sync, performing “The Lady of the Camellias.”

扎夫基亚还有更多问题，但我们很快将注意力转向了舞台，一群身着华丽戏服的芭蕾舞演员完美同步地跳跃、旋转，表演《茶花女》。

Another work of art, the Tashkent Metro, is one of the country’s grandest legacies of Soviet rule. Its picture-perfect stations are destinations in themselves — one honors cosmonauts; another features dozens of high, neatly painted domes. Photography in the metro was legalized in 2018, but police officers still repeatedly inspected my camera when I went to photograph the stations.

塔什干地铁堪称另一件艺术品，是苏联统治留给乌兹别克斯坦最宏伟的遗产之一。风景如画的车站本身就是目的地——一座致敬宇航员；另一座则拥有数十个高耸、粉刷整洁的圆顶。地铁摄影于2018年合法化，但当我去拍摄车站时，警察仍然反复检查我的相机。

塔什干著名的乔尔苏巴扎的商贩。在乔尔苏巴扎的穹顶之下，新鲜的食物和当地美食堆积如山。

In contrast with the tightly regulated metro, a chaotic scene reigned at Chorsu Bazaar, where vendors hawked sweets, nuts, meats and cheeses in and around an arena-size turquoise dome. The crowds and heaps of fresh foods rivaled those of the bustling marketplaces of Istanbul and Jerusalem.

与管控严密的地铁形成鲜明对比的是乔尔苏巴扎的混乱景象，商贩们在一个体育场大小的青绿色穹顶内外兜售糖果、坚果、肉和奶酪。拥挤的人群和堆积的新鲜食物足以与伊斯坦布尔和耶路撒冷熙熙攘攘的市场相媲美。

I bought a few strips of qovun qoqi, a chewy, sun-dried melon snack, and I tried, mostly successfully, not to bump the slabs of meat hanging along the market’s narrow walkways.

我买了几条Qovun Qoqi（一种耐嚼的日晒瓜干零食），并尽力避免撞到市场狭窄走道两旁悬挂的肉——大部分时候是成功的。

Samarkand

撒马尔罕

Inside a Silk Road Synagogue

走进丝绸之路的犹太会堂

The high-speed Afrosiyob train whisked me two hours across the flatlands to Samarkand the next morning. To get to the city center, I used the consistently cheap Russian ride-hailing app Yandex Go.

第二天早上，阿弗拉西阿卜号高铁用两个小时载着我穿过平原，直达撒马尔罕。为了去市中心，我使用了价格一直很便宜的俄罗斯打车软件Yandex Go。

Samarkand features a dazzling array of art and architecture. At its core is the Registan, a triad of gleaming madrasas, or Islamic schools, built between the 15th and 17th centuries, which tower over a broad plaza.

撒马尔罕有一系列令人眼花缭乱的艺术和建筑。其核心是雷吉斯坦广场，这是一组建于15至17世纪的闪闪发光的经学院（即伊斯兰学校）三联体，俯瞰着宽阔的广场。

雷吉斯坦华丽的几何建筑结构使其成为乌兹别克斯坦最引人注目的景点之一。

At the nearby Shah-i-Zinda necropolis, visitors gazed quietly at the labyrinthine tiles adorning mausoleums built to honor Qutham ibn Abbas, a cousin of the Prophet Muhammad who brought Islam to the region in the seventh century.

在附近的沙希津达陵墓群，游客们静静地凝视着装饰在陵墓上的迷宫般的瓷砖，这些陵墓是为了纪念库萨姆·本·阿巴斯——先知穆罕默德的堂弟，他在7世纪将伊斯兰教带到了这一地区。

Uzbekistan once had a sizable Jewish population, but most Jews left the country after the fall of the Soviet Union. Not far from the main attractions, the Gumbaz Synagogue, built in 1891, hosts one of the country’s last congregations.

乌兹别克斯坦曾拥有相当规模的犹太人口，但在苏联解体后，大多数犹太人离开了该国。离主要景点不远的地方，建于1891年的贡巴兹犹太会堂是该国最后一批犹太会众集会的地方。

The door was locked when I showed up, but a slip of paper pinned above the entrance displayed a handwritten phone number. I sent it a text, and the next day Rabbi Yesev Tilyaev gave me a private tour, mostly in Russian, during which he proudly showed me the sanctuary’s hand-carved bimah and venerable collection of Hebrew texts.

我到的时候，会堂的门锁着，但门口上方钉着的一张纸条上有手写的电话号码。我发了一条短信，第二天，叶谢夫·蒂利亚耶夫拉比带我进行了私人参观，大部分时间用俄语讲解。他自豪地向我展示了圣殿里手工雕刻的诵经台和珍贵的希伯来语典籍收藏。

Dinner at Old City Restaurant defied the adage that you don’t visit Central Asia for the food. My plov, a beloved Central Asian staple composed of rice, carrots and meat, featured stuffed grape leaves, pomegranate seeds, a quail egg, an apple slice and a gooey roasted head of garlic.

在老城餐厅吃的晚餐打破了“去中亚不是为了美食”这句老话。我的抓饭（一种深受喜爱的中亚主食，由米饭、胡萝卜和肉组成）搭配了酿葡萄叶、石榴籽、一枚鹌鹑蛋、一片苹果和一个软糯的烤大蒜头。

Back at the Old Radio Hostel that evening (159,000 som), the diversity of my fellow travelers showed just how much Uzbekistan is changing. There was a Taiwanese woman on her first solo trip; a German man finishing a backpacking trek through Afghanistan; and Rainer Mautz, a 56-year-old Swiss man who was a year into a 9,300-mile walk from Portugal to Singapore.

那天晚上回到老电台旅舍（Old Radio Hostel，15.9万索姆，约合83元人民币），我的旅伴们的多样性恰恰说明了乌兹别克斯坦正在发生多大的变化。有一位第一次独自旅行的台湾女性、一位刚结束阿富汗背包徒步旅行的德国男子，还有56岁的瑞士人莱纳·毛茨，他正在进行一项从葡萄牙到新加坡、全程约15000公里的徒步之旅，已经走了一年。

The hostel owner, Sherzod Mirzaev, 40, said Uzbekistan’s recent social media exposure had brought him “more and more guests from around the world,” many of them young people seeking “something unpredictable.”

40岁的旅舍老板谢尔佐德·米尔扎耶夫表示，乌兹别克斯坦最近在社交媒体上的曝光为他带来了“越来越多来自世界各地的客人”，其中许多人都是寻求“奇遇”的年轻人。

“Uzbekistan is still an undiscovered place,” he said. “But in five or seven years, it will be too commercial.”

“乌兹别克斯坦仍然是一个未被发现的地方，”他说。“但在五到七年里，它会变得过于商业化。”

Bukhara

布哈拉

A Hive of Creativity

创意的蜂巢

拉比豪兹广场是布哈拉的一个中心广场，附近有许多地毯店。

Bukhara is less flashy than Samarkand. Its blue-tiled mausoleums sag under the weight of the centuries. But it’s also bursting with creativity, and chief among its crafts is carpet weaving, a tradition that dates back hundreds of years.

布哈拉不像撒马尔罕那样浮华。它那铺着蓝瓷砖的陵墓在岁月的重压下已经出现沉降。但这里也充满了创造力，其中最主要的工艺是地毯编织，这一传统可追溯至数百年前。

Near the Labi Hovuz, a central square that’s home to a gnarled mulberry tree supposedly planted in 1477, I visited a half-dozen carpet shops and chatted with their owners.

在拉比豪兹（一个中心广场，那里有一棵据说种植于1477年的虬结桑树）附近，我走访了六七家地毯店，并与店主们聊天。

One was Ulugbek Kosimov, 50, who has been making silk carpets since he was a teenager. When I asked how he created each rug’s intricate pattern, he led me downstairs to his studio, where one of his students was weaving colorful strands on a wooden loom. He sat me down alongside her, handed me a hooked tool and gently guided my fingers to pull and twist two threads together around the hook.

其中一位是50岁的乌鲁格别克·科西莫夫，他从十几岁起就开始制作丝绸地毯。当我问他如何织出每块地毯的复杂图案时，他带我下楼来到他的工作室，他的一名学生正在木制织机上编织彩色的丝线。他让我坐在她旁边，递给我一个钩针工具，并轻轻引导我的手指绕着钩针拉扯并扭转两根线。

If I did that 100,000 more times, he said, I’d have a carpet.

他说，再这样做10万次，就能织出一块地毯了。

Before leaving Bukhara, I stopped at the 16th-century Bozori Kord Bathhouse, where I experienced an exquisite ordeal of a massage (455,000 som). It involved a lot of knuckles, buckets of freezing water and a burning ginger scrub, but the domed ceilings and gentle sun shining through a skylight helped make it, somehow, worth the pain.

离开布哈拉前，我在16世纪的博佐里·科尔德浴室停留了一下，在那里经历了一场精致的折磨——按摩（45.5索姆，约合237元人民币）。这包括大量的指关节按压、几桶冰水和火辣辣的生姜按摩膏，但圆顶的天花板和透过天窗温柔照进来的阳光，不知怎的，让这一切的痛苦都变得值得。

Khiva

希瓦

Waiting for the Crowds

等待人群

如今，乘坐高铁从塔什干前往风景如画的希瓦市仅需不到八小时，过去需14小时。

Khiva, the smallest city on Uzbekistan’s tourist circuit, is set to change more than perhaps anywhere else in the country as the tourism boom accelerates.

希瓦是乌兹别克斯坦旅游线路上最小的城市，但随着旅游热潮的加速，这里的变化可能比该国任何其他地方都要大。

The arrival of high-speed rail in May cut the travel time from Tashkent to less than eight hours, from 14. New hotels are popping up even within the Itchan Kala, the city’s walled inner fortress. Khiva felt like a city on the brink, waiting for the crowds to arrive.

5月高铁的开通将塔什干到这里的行程缩短到不到八小时（原来是14小时）。甚至在伊钦·卡拉——这座城市的城墙内堡垒——内部，新酒店也在不断涌现。希瓦感觉像是一座处于临界点上的城市，等待着人群的到来。

Khiva has a long history of puppetry, with roots in the Zoroastrianism practiced there 2,000 years ago. I walked to the Khorezm Regional Puppet Theater and, by chance, I showed up at the same time as a school field trip. In an instant, a teacher ushered me into the theater with the children.

希瓦有着悠久的木偶戏历史，可以追溯到2000年前在此流传的祆教。我步行前往花拉子模地区木偶剧院，凑巧赶上了一个学校组织的参观活动。突然间，一位老师招呼我带着孩子们一起进了剧场。

It was a spectacle: Onstage, actors sang, danced and maneuvered their puppets. In the seats around me, 200 Uzbek fifth graders alternated between watching the show and wrestling one another to the floor.

场面十分壮观：舞台上，演员们载歌载舞，操纵着他们的木偶。在我周围的座位上，200名乌兹别克五年级学生时而看戏，时而互相摔跤打闹。

Outside, the city’s ancient walls illustrated the overlapping layers of its past: fortified gates, patched-up bricks, stairs that led to nowhere.

城外，古城墙诉说着层层叠叠的历史：加固的大门、修补过的砖块、并不通向什么地方的阶梯。

Each told the stories of reinvention by the Arabs, Mongols, Persians, Soviets.

每一处都讲述了阿拉伯人、蒙古人、波斯人和苏联人重塑这座城市的故事。

And, now, the tourists.

而现在，轮到游客了。

Ever since Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire, people have been trying to grasp the scale of his incomprehensible fortune.

自从埃隆·马斯克成为世界上第一位万亿富翁以来，人们一直试图理解他那令人难以置信的巨额财富究竟有多庞大。

Some have noted that a stack of $100 bills amounting to $1 trillion would extend 679 miles high. The economist Steven Durlauf has observed that John D. Rockefeller’s wealth at one point equaled about 1.5 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product and that Mr. Musk’s wealth now amounts to at least twice as much, at more than 3 percent. It may not escape New York Knicks fans that even Jalen Brunson, who makes about $39 million per year, would need to play more than 25,000 seasons to accumulate that kind of money.

有人指出，1万亿美元的百元美钞叠起来约有1092千米高。经济学家史蒂文·德劳夫观察到，约翰·洛克菲勒的财富一度相当于美国国内生产总值的约1.5%，而马斯克现在的财富至少是其两倍，占比超过3%。纽约尼克斯队的球迷可能也会注意到，即使是年薪约3900万美元的杰伦·布伦森，也需要打上超过25000个赛季才能积累出这么多的钱。

But of all the numbers I’ve seen, the one that struck me most forcefully was a calculation in The Times that Mr. Musk’s net worth is five million times as large as that of the average American family.

但在我看到的所有数字中，最让我感到震撼的是《纽约时报》的一项计算：马斯克的净资产是美国普通家庭净资产的500万倍。

As a historian of political thought, I immediately thought of Plato, the first Western philosopher to really grapple with economic inequality. In his “Laws,” through the character of the Athenian Stranger, Plato contended that in a thriving republic, if anyone acquired more than four times the wealth of the poorest citizens, he should donate the surplus to the city. Not five million times the wealth of the typical family — four times the wealth of the poorest.

作为一名政治思想史学家，我立刻想到了柏拉图，他是第一位真正深入探讨经济不平等问题的西方哲学家。在他的《法律篇》中，柏拉图借“雅典来客”之口提出，在一个繁荣的共和国里，如果任何人的财富超过了最贫穷公民财富的四倍，他就应该把多余的部分捐给城邦。不是普通家庭财富的500万倍——而是最贫穷公民财富的四倍。

To be sure, it is difficult to imagine how a modern economy would operate with Plato’s proposed constraints on wealth acquisition. But it is not hard for a modern reader to understand the concerns that led him to his radical proposal.

 诚然，我们很难想象现代经济在柏拉图提出的财富获取限制下会如何运作。但对于现代读者来说，并不难理解促使他提出这一激进建议的担忧。

Plato grew up in Athens, a city that once was nearly torn apart, as Plutarch wrote, by the “disparity between the rich and the poor.” It was saved by a heroic lawgiver, Solon, who canceled all the debts of the poor, to the great chagrin of the rich. And in Plato’s youth, as the city fought the Peloponnesian War, it suffered three successive class-based civil wars — an oligarchic revolution of the rich against the poor, followed by a democratic revolution of the poor against the rich, followed by yet another oligarchic revolution.

柏拉图在雅典长大，正如普鲁塔克所写，这座城市曾经几乎被“贫富悬殊”所撕裂。后来英雄般的立法者梭伦拯救了它，他取消了穷人的所有债务，让富人懊恼不已。而在柏拉图年轻时，随着雅典卷入伯罗奔尼撒战争，它连续遭受了三次基于阶级的内战——先是富人反对穷人的寡头革命，紧接着是穷人反对富人的民主革命，随后又是一场寡头革命。

It’s no wonder that when Socrates reflected on inequality in Plato’s “Republic,” he observed that a state characterized by significant wealth disparity is not a state at all but rather “two states, the one of poor, the other of rich men, and they are living on the same spot and always conspiring against one another.”

难怪在柏拉图的《理想国》中，当苏格拉底反思不平等时，他指出，一个以巨大财富悬殊为特征的国家根本不能算作一个国家，而是“两个国家，一个是穷人的国家，另一个是富人的国家，他们生活在同一片土地上，却总是阴谋颠覆彼此。”

For Plato, the source of inequality was a disease of the soul that the Greeks called pleonexia — a kind of insatiable greed. In Plato’s “Gorgias,” Socrates likened this condition to a leaky jug: No matter how much water one pours into it, it will demand more. For some, the desire for money extends only so far as is necessary to cover their needs; for others, the desire is infinite. Plato likened those insatiable souls to slaves who are ruled by their desires.

对柏拉图来说，不平等的根源是一种灵魂的疾病，希腊人称之为“pleonexia”——一种贪得无厌的贪欲。在柏拉图的《高尔吉亚篇》中，苏格拉底将这种情况比作一个漏水的罐子：无论往里面倒多少水，它都会渴求更多。对于一些人来说，对金钱的渴望仅限于满足基本需求；而对于另一些人来说，这种渴望是无止境的。柏拉图将那些贪得无厌的灵魂比作被自身欲望统治的奴隶。

Someone consumed with his unquenchable desires comes to love himself far beyond what he can feel for the rest of humanity. He was, for Plato, “a poor judge of what is just and good and noble,” because he would always treat his desires as more valuable even than the truth. As a consequence, Plato wrote, “it is impossible that those who become very rich also become good.”

一个被无法满足的欲望所吞噬的人对自己的爱会远远超过对全人类的关爱。在柏拉图看来，他“无法很好地判断什么是公正、善良和高尚的”，因为他总是把自己的欲望看做比真理更宝贵的东西。因此，柏拉图写道：“那些变得极其富有的人，不可能同时也是善良的。”

Plato’s fears about insatiable greed have been vindicated by Mr. Musk, who has already set his sights on $10 trillion. He has confirmed Plato’s concerns about the moral failures of the superrich by characterizing empathy as “the fundamental weakness of Western civilization.” With his so-called Department of Government Efficiency, he put the U.S. Agency for International Development program “into the wood chipper,” as he gleefully put it, contributing to the deaths of an estimated 600,000 people. Such carnage is a predictable outcome of a society that has chosen to place no upper limits on wealth.

柏拉图对贪得无厌的担忧在马斯克身上得到了印证，他已经将目光投向了10万亿美元。他将同理心描述为“西方文明的根本弱点”，这证实了柏拉图对超级富豪道德败坏的担忧。马克斯用他所谓的“政府效率部”将美国国际开发署的项目“送进了碎木机”——正如他得意洋洋地描述的那般——导致了估计60万人的死亡。这样的惨剧是一个选择对财富不设上限的社会必然招致的结果。

Plato was acutely aware that ideal solutions, such as his 4-to-1 wealth ratio, are impossible to carry out where great inequality already exists. But he did not encourage legislators and citizens to throw up their hands in surrender. Rather, he urged citizens (including the few rich ones with a “sense of fairness”) to do what they could to level society, starting by shaming those with excessive fortunes. He stressed that true poverty “consists not in a lessening of one’s property but in an increase of one’s avarice.”

柏拉图敏锐地意识到，在已经存在巨大不平等的地方，像他提出的4:1财富比例这样的理想解决方案是不可能实现的。但他并没有鼓励立法者和公民因此举手投降。相反，他敦促公民（包括少数具有“公平感”的富人）尽其所能来拉平社会差距，首先要让那些拥有过剩财富的人感到羞愧。他强调，真正的贫穷“不在于个人财产的减少，而在于个人贪婪的增加”。

Only by teaching the evils of extreme greed can society begin to restore the healthy balance of wealth necessary for a thriving republic.

只有通过教导人们认清极端贪婪的罪恶，社会才能开始恢复一个繁荣共和国所必需的健康财富平衡。

Telegram, a popular messaging app known for its resistance to government scrutiny, has been used widely by protesters and news organizations evading authoritarian control. However, it has also been accused of enabling terrorism, crime and disinformation.

Telegram是一款以抵抗政府审查而闻名的流行消息应用，广泛被抗议者和新闻机构用来规避威权控制。然而，它也被指责助长恐怖主义、犯罪和虚假信息。

Governments around the world have tried to limit Telegram through bans, restrictions and criminal investigations, including in France, where its creator has faced criminal charges.

世界各国政府已试图通过禁令、限制措施和刑事调查来限制Telegram，其中法国对其创始人发起了刑事指控。

The app was banned by Russia, where it had been used for political dissent; restricted from government-issued devices in Ukraine over national security reasons; and temporarily suspended in Brazil for what the authorities said was its failure to curb illicit activities.

该应用在俄罗斯被禁止（此前Telegram常被用于政治异见活动）；在乌克兰，它因国家安全原因被禁止在政府发放的设备上使用；巴西一度对其进行临时封禁，当局称是因为它未能遏制非法活动。

In the latest example, India this week banned the app until June 22 after finding that it had been used in a fraudulent effort to sell what users claimed to be leaked pages from an upcoming national medical college entrance exam.

最新事例是，由于发现其被用于欺诈活动——兜售被用户认为是即将举行的全国医学院入学考试泄露试卷的材料，印度本周禁止该应用至6月22日。

Here’s a partial list of places where Telegram has faced regulatory hurdles.

以下是Telegram面临监管障碍的部分国家和地区列表。

India

印度

India, among Telegram’s largest markets with over 150 million users, temporarily banned Telegram over what the government called a last-ditch attempt to halt an effort to defraud students preparing for the entrance exam for medical colleges.

印度是Telegram最大的市场之一，拥有超过1.5亿用户。该国临时禁止Telegram，政府称这是为防止医学院入学考试考生遭欺诈不得已而为之。

Millions of candidates took the test in May. But India’s National Testing Agency said on Tuesday that Telegram channels had sold what they called leaked exam questions to candidates and their families that turned out to be fake. It also scrapped the scores from the exam and scheduled a retest for Sunday.

数百万考生在5月参加了考试。但印度国家考试局周二表示，Telegram频道向考生及其家人出售所谓泄露的考题，结果这些考题是假的。该机构还取消了本次考试的成绩，并安排周日进行重考。

The move has fueled dissatisfaction and protests among young people who accuse the government of mismanaging the exam system.

此举引发了年轻人的不满和抗议，他们指责政府对考试系统管理不善。

Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, criticized the ban, writing on X that it punished ordinary Telegram users and not the people defrauding exam takers. He added that Telegram had removed hundreds of channels related to exam materials and related scams in India.

Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫批评了这一禁令，他在X上发文称，此举惩罚了普通Telegram用户，而不是那些欺诈考生的人。他补充说，Telegram已移除印度数百个与考试材料和相关诈骗有关的频道。

Russia

俄罗斯

Russia, where Mr. Durov was born, has also banned Telegram. In 2018, a Russian court allowed the government to block Telegram after the app refused to give Russian security services access to users’ encrypted messages. Mr. Durov, who had fled the country in 2014, said that the app’s encryption systems made it impossible for the company to comply with the government’s demands.

杜罗夫的出生地俄罗斯也已禁止Telegram。2018年，一家俄罗斯法院允许政府封锁Telegram，因为该应用拒绝向俄罗斯安全部门提供用户加密消息的访问权限。2014年逃离俄罗斯的杜罗夫表示，应用的加密系统使得公司无法遵守政府的要求。

The move faced technical hurdles. It also put the Kremlin in an awkward position because Telegram was widely used by Russian government agencies. By 2020, Russia lifted its ban saying Telegram had agreed to step up efforts to block extremist content, among other demands.

封锁行动遇到了技术障碍，也让克里姆林宫陷入尴尬，因为俄罗斯政府机构广泛使用Telegram。2020年俄罗斯解除禁令，称Telegram已同意加强封锁极端主义内容等要求。

Earlier this year, the Russian government tried again to block Telegram as part of a wider crackdown on free speech on the internet during the war against Ukraine. Russia’s communications regulator accused Telegram of failing to combat fraud, protect personal data and prevent the app from being used by terrorists and criminals.

今年早些时候，俄罗斯政府在乌克兰战争期间作为打击互联网自由言论的广泛行动的一部分，再次试图封锁Telegram。俄罗斯通信监管机构指责Telegram未能打击欺诈、保护个人数据，并防止该应用被恐怖分子和犯罪分子使用。

Mr. Durov pushed back, saying that the government was restricting Telegram access to force Russians to switch to a state-controlled app he said had been “built for surveillance and political censorship.” Telegram is now effectively blocked in the country.

杜罗夫反击称，政府限制Telegram访问是为了迫使俄罗斯人转向一个由国家控制的应用，他说该应用“专为监控和政治审查而建”。Telegram目前在该国实际上已被封锁。

Ukraine

乌克兰

During Russia’s war on Ukraine, Telegram has been a lifeline for millions of Ukrainians seeking information about impending Russian attacks or looking for food and medical aid. But Ukrainian officials have also expressed concern that the platform was enabling Russian disinformation and spying.

在俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争期间，Telegram成为数百万乌克兰人生活不可或缺的一部分，被用于获取即将到来的俄罗斯袭击的信息，或寻找食物和医疗援助。但乌克兰官员也对该平台助长俄罗斯虚假信息和间谍活动表示担忧。

The Ukrainian authorities in 2024 banned military and government officials, along with people working on critical infrastructure, from using Telegram on their work phones out of security concerns. Some officials proposed rules requiring Telegram to disclose who is behind large anonymous channels.

2024年，乌克兰当局出于安全考虑，禁止军事人员、政府官员以及关键基础设施工作人员在工作手机上使用Telegram。一些官员提议制定规则，要求Telegram披露大型匿名频道背后的运营者。

Europe

欧洲

Telegram has run into hurdles in other European nations. In 2023, Norway’s justice minister said in an official notice that state officials should not have Telegram or TikTok on their work devices because the government saw the apps as threats to national security.

Telegram在其他欧洲国家也遇到障碍。2023年，挪威司法部长在一份正式通知中表示，国家官员的工作设备上不应安装Telegram或TikTok，因为政府视这些应用为国家安全威胁。

In France, the authorities arrested Mr. Durov when he landed there in 2024, and charged him with a wide range of crimes for failing to prevent illicit activity on the app. He was also barred from leaving the country. Telegram played a role in multiple criminal cases in France tied to child sexual abuse, drug trafficking and online hate crimes.

在法国，当局于2024年在杜罗夫落地时逮捕了他，并以未能防止应用上的非法活动为由，对他提出多项犯罪指控。他还被禁止离开该国。Telegram在法国多起涉及儿童性虐待、毒品走私和网络仇恨犯罪的刑事案件中扮演了角色。

Telegram said at the time that it abided by European Union laws, and that it was absurd to claim that a platform or its owner was responsible for abuse of that platform.

Telegram当时表示，它遵守欧盟法律，并称将平台或其所有者视为平台滥用的责任方是荒谬的。

Mr. Durov was temporarily allowed to leave France last year. He said at the time that he had returned home to Dubai.

杜罗夫去年被临时允许离开法国。他当时表示已返回迪拜的家。

Brazil

巴西

Brazil’s Supreme Court banned Telegram nationwide in 2022 ahead of a presidential election. It said that the app had failed to comply with orders to remove accounts tied to a supporter of former President Jair Bolsonaro who was being investigated for spreading disinformation and threatening Supreme Court judges.

2022年巴西总统选举前，巴西最高法院在全国范围内禁止Telegram。法院称，该应用未能遵守命令，删除与前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的支持者相关的账户，该支持者正因散布虚假信息和威胁最高法院法官而接受调查。

Mr. Durov said in an apology at the time that Telegram hadn’t always responded to the Brazilian Supreme Court because the company had missed the court’s emails.

杜罗夫当时道歉称，Telegram未能及时回复巴西最高法院，因为公司错过了法院的邮件。

The ban was lifted when Telegram complied with court orders. Another Brazilian judge in 2023 ordered that Telegram be blocked nationwide after it failed to comply with court orders demanding complete user data from neo-Nazi group chats. Telegram told the police at the time that the groups had been deleted and that it could not recover the data.

在Telegram遵守法院命令后，禁令被解除。2023年，另一名巴西法官下令在全国封锁Telegram，因为它未能遵守要求提供新纳粹群聊完整用户数据的法院命令。Telegram当时告诉警方，这些群组已被删除，且无法恢复数据。

An appeals court later lifted that suspension but upheld a hefty fine.

上诉法院后来取消了该暂停措施，但维持了高额罚款的裁决。

In igniting a war against Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump billed the U.S. campaign as an unprecedented step toward transforming the Middle East and terminating the threat from what he called a “wicked, radical dictatorship.”

2月28日点燃对伊战火时，特朗普总统将美国的这场军事行动描述为一项史无前例的举措，旨在重塑中东，并彻底消除他所称的“邪恶激进独裁政权”所带来的威胁。

Roughly 100 days later, as the United States and Iran have reached a somewhat vague memorandum of understanding to end the war, skeptics are expressing bafflement over what exactly has transformed.

约100天后，随着美伊达成一份措辞较为模糊的谅解备忘录，宣告战争结束，质疑者感到困惑——中东究竟发生了什么实质性改变。

Neither the war nor the agreement ended what U.S. and Israeli officials regard as the main threats emanating from Iran. The country’s nuclear program, while heavily damaged, was not eliminated — its fate punted to future negotiation.

无论是这场战争本身，还是这份协议，都未能终结美以官员所认为的来自伊朗的主要威胁。伊朗的核计划虽遭重创，但并未被彻底摧毁，其最终命运被推迟到未来谈判中解决。

The same goes for its ballistic missiles, which the deal does not address. Iran’s authoritarian regime endured, albeit with new leaders. Its proxies remain a threat to the region. Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, persisted in attacking each other.

伊朗的弹道导弹问题也是如此，这份协议对此只字未提。伊朗的威权政权虽然更换了领导层，却依然存在。其代理人武装仍是地区威胁。以色列与伊朗支持的武装组织黎巴嫩真主党也仍在相互攻击。

By Saturday, even the most significant immediate result of the deal — Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Mr. Trump had identified as essential — seemed at risk. Iran’s military said it was closing the waterway again, because the United States had failed to stop the fighting in Lebanon. The U.S. military contested that, saying the strait remained open as the agreement stipulated.

到周六，就连协议最重要、最直接的成果——伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡（特朗普曾将此视为协议核心）似乎也面临风险。伊朗军方表示，由于美国未能阻止黎巴嫩的战事，他们将再次关闭该水道。美国军方则对此提出异议，称海峡仍按协议规定保持开放。

“This is not a document the United States agreed to because the war demonstrated a new U.S. military superiority,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at M.I.T. who specializes in Persian Gulf security issues. “I think it’s a document that has resulted from the fact that the United States bit off more than it could chew and doesn’t want to escalate.”

“这不是一份因为战争展示了美国新的军事优势而签署的文件，”专门研究波斯湾安全问题的麻省理工学院教授凯特琳·塔尔马奇说。“我认为这份文件源于美国力不从心、不想升级冲突的现实。”

That’s a worthy goal, she said. “But it really raises the question of what was achieved here, especially in comparison to the original Iran nuclear deal.”

这是个值得追求的目标，她说，“但它也确实引发了一个问题：我们到底取得了什么成果，尤其是与最初的伊朗核协议相比。”

For its part, the Islamic Republic is set to receive potentially substantial financial rewards. That is one substantive change, although not necessarily one in the United States’ favor.

就伊朗方面而言，它有望获得可观的经济收益。这是一个实质性的变化，只不过未必符合美国利益。

阿曼马斯喀特靠近霍尔木兹海峡的卡布斯港，摄于周五。

Although the memorandum allows for free passage of ships for two months, Tehran has threatened to implement transit fees for services, a system that did not exist before the war.

虽然备忘录允许船只在未来两个月内自由通行，但德黑兰已威胁要对经过霍尔木兹海峡的船只征收通行费，而在战争爆发前并不存在这种机制。

The heart of the memorandum is that Iran will abandon hostility toward the United States and its regional allies, a pillar of the revolution, in exchange for sweeping, if sometimes gradual, economic benefits. They include the lifting of the American naval blockade, a $300 billion reconstruction fund to be created by the Gulf Arab states, the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets and an end to all American sanctions.

备忘录的核心内容是：伊朗将放弃对美国及其地区盟友的敌对立场——这是伊斯兰革命的支柱之一——以换取广泛的、可能逐步兑现的经济利益。这些利益包括解除美国的海上封锁、由海湾阿拉伯国家设立3000亿美元重建基金、解冻数十亿美元冻结资产，以及终止所有美国制裁。

The deal’s ambition, as Vice President JD Vance portrayed it to reporters on Thursday, went so far as the transformation of Iran’s hostile relations with the United States and much of the region since its 1979 revolution.

按照副总统万斯周四向记者的描述，这项协议的雄心之大，甚至要彻底改变伊朗自1979年革命以来与美国及该地区大部分国家的敌对关系。

“People say the Iranians will never change their behavior. Well, maybe that’s true and if so, they don’t get any of the benefits of the bargain,” said Mr. Vance. “But isn’t it worth trying?”

“人们说伊朗人永远不会改变行为。也许这是真的，如果真是这样，他们什么好处也得不到，”万斯说。“但难道不值得试一试吗？”

Experts on the region are skeptical. Middle Eastern wars tend to breed more radicalization, not less, said Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “The reality is that the region in the aftermath of this conflict will be much more insecure,” he said.

研究中东问题的专家对此持怀疑态度。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所所长卡里姆·哈加格表示，中东战争往往会催生更多激进主义，而非相反。“现实情况是，这场冲突结束之后，中东地区只会变得更加不安全，”他说。

Here is a look at how the memorandum left various countries:

以下是这份备忘录对各方的影响：

The United States

美国

Mr. Vance said the agreement maintained U.S. leverage over Iran and that it could turn financial rewards on and off like a spigot. Many experts were doubtful.

万斯表示，该协议维持了美国对伊朗的施压能力，可以像开关水龙头一样随时给予或切断经济利益。许多专家对此表示怀疑。

It’s true that Mr. Trump broke the American taboo against invading Iran, but in doing so analysts said that he squandered the most powerful tool that Washington had maintained since the Islamic Revolution: the threat of force. The United States used it, and didn’t achieve its goals — a lesson Iran is sure to internalize, analysts said.

诚然，特朗普打破了美国不愿直接攻击伊朗的禁忌，但分析人士表示，这样做也浪费了华盛顿自伊斯兰革命以来最强大的工具：武力威慑。美国动用了这一工具，却未能实现目标——分析人士称，这一教训伊朗势必铭记于心。

In the initial, 12-day war last June, for example, the U.S. military managed to cast a shadow over the long-term viability of Iran’s nuclear program by dispatching long-range bombers to bury nuclear facilities under a mountain of rubble, said Ms. Talmadge of M.I.T.

麻省理工学院的塔尔马奇表示，例如在去年6月历时12天的初次战争中，美军通过派遣远程轰炸机将伊朗核设施深埋于瓦砾之下，从而对伊朗核计划的长期可行性造成了严重打击。

The more recent war had the opposite effect, she added, since Mr. Trump backed off further escalation. “I think the U.S. in some ways undermined the leverage that it had,” Ms. Talmadge said.

她补充道，最近的这场战争产生了相反的效果，因为特朗普最终放弃了进一步升级。“我认为美国在某些方面削弱了自身的筹码，”塔尔马奇说。

At the same time, Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases in the region caused extensive damage, undermining another facet of American leverage, she said, by puncturing the sense that they were inviolable.

与此同时，伊朗对美国在该地区军事基地的袭击造成了广泛破坏，打破了美军基地不可侵犯的印象，从而削弱了美国施压能力的又一环。

特朗普总统在白宫，摄于4月。

And the memorandum has a further stipulation: that unspecified American forces should withdraw from the “proximity” of Iran within 30 days.

此外，这份备忘录还包含一项进一步的规定：要求未明确说明的美国部队在30天内撤离伊朗“周边地区”。

“When did we ever negotiate with the Iranians about our force deployments going forward?” asked Robert S. Ford, a former American ambassador in the region.

“我们什么时候开始就美国未来的兵力部署问题与伊朗人讨价还价了？”曾在中东地区担任美国大使的罗伯特·福特质问道。

Iran

伊朗

The war wrought widespread devastation, with a reported death toll of 1,700 civilians. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed along with dozens of senior military commanders, and its air defenses proved porous. Reconstructing military and industrial infrastructure will cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Inflation is skyrocketing, and high unemployment could fuel public unrest.

战争给伊朗造成广泛破坏，据报道有1700名平民死亡。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊与数十名高级军事指挥官被杀，其防空体系暴露出种种漏洞。重建军事和工业基础设施将耗资数千亿美元。通货膨胀正在飙升，高失业率也可能引发社会动荡。

But the government’s tenacity served to “reinvigorate Iran’s perception of its own security,” said Afshon Ostovar, author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East.”

但《野心之战：美国、伊朗与中东之争》(Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East)一书作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔认为，伊朗政府展现出的韧性反而“重振了伊朗对自身安全能力的信心”。

The idea that it will trade its hostility toward the United States and its allies for improved prosperity is a gamble, since it had almost always chosen confrontation previously, analysts said.

分析人士指出，伊朗是否真的会为了经济繁荣而放弃对美国及其盟友的敌对政策，本身就是一场赌博，因为过去它几乎总是选择对抗。

Israel

以色列

特拉维夫街头的内塔尼亚胡海报，上面写着“人民与内塔尼亚胡同在”，摄于4月。

Israel entered the war convinced that it would defang Iran for at least a generation.

以色列投入这场战争时坚信，自己至少能让伊朗在未来一代人的时间里失去威胁能力。

Instead it found itself sidelined by its ally, the United States, in an agreement that ignored its goals, and worse, limited its freedom to attack in Lebanon. Mr. Trump has also repeatedly disparaged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, revealing rare disunity in American-Israeli relations at a fraught moment, with Israeli elections approaching.

结果，以色列却发现自己被美国这个盟友边缘化，协议无视了它的目标，更糟糕的是限制了它在黎巴嫩发动攻击的自由。特朗普还多次贬低以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，在以色列大选临近的敏感时刻，这暴露出美以关系中的罕见裂痕。

From an Israeli standpoint, the memorandum is a catastrophe. “It is a collapse of all the strategy that we had regarding Iran,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specializes in Iran.

从以色列的角度来看，这份备忘录堪称灾难。“这是我们对伊战略的全面崩塌，”专门研究伊朗问题的以色列退休情报官员丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。

Lebanon

黎巴嫩

以色列发动空袭后，在贝鲁特南郊代希耶地区，救援人员在一处居民楼前。

Lebanon is considered by analysts to be the soft underbelly of the memorandum.

分析人士认为，黎巴嫩是这份备忘录最脆弱的环节。

Hezbollah had alienated many of its mostly Shiite Muslim supporters by dragging the country into two devastating wars — one in support of Hamas in Gaza and the other when Israel attacked Iran. The violence has left thousands of people dead, including almost 4,000 civilians this year, according to the health ministry.

真主党将国家拖入两场毁灭性战争——一场是支持加沙的哈马斯，另一场是以色列攻击伊朗时——从而疏远了许多主要是什叶派穆斯林的支持者。冲突已造成数千人死亡，据黎巴嫩卫生部统计，仅今年就有近4000名平民丧生。

Lack of financial support from Iran for reconstruction augmented public anger. But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is working assiduously to restore Hezbollah’s military capacity, analysts said, and some of the money promised to Tehran for reconstruction could flow to the militia. That gives Hezbollah incentive to respect the agreement.

伊朗迟迟未能提供重建资金也进一步加剧了公众不满。不过分析人士表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在努力恢复真主党的军事能力，而承诺给予伊朗的部分重建资金未来也可能流向真主党。这给了真主党遵守协议的动力。

Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance have acknowledged that some violence in Lebanon is likely to continue, but it is not clear how much it would take to trigger a strong American intervention.

特朗普和万斯都承认，黎巴嫩未来仍可能持续发生一定程度的暴力冲突。但目前尚不清楚，冲突升级到什么程度，才会引发美国的强力干预。

Retatrutide, the most powerful weight-loss drug in development, is not expected to hit the U.S. market before next year, at the earliest. But Adil Kalam, a 37-year-old in Brooklyn, already has 20 vials of it in his freezer.

瑞他鲁肽是目前研发中最强效的减肥药，预计最早也要到明年才能进入美国市场。但在布鲁克林，37岁的阿迪尔·卡拉姆已经在冰箱里存放了20瓶瑞他鲁肽。

Mr. Kalam used Bitcoin to purchase the drug from an online retailer selling $99 vials labeled “for research purposes only.” His first order arrived in a cardboard box, the vials of powdered medication packaged in bubble wrap.

卡拉姆使用比特币从一家网上零售商那里购买了这种药物，每支标价99美元，标签上注明“仅限研究用途”。他的第一笔订单装在一个纸箱里送达，装有粉末状药物的安瓿被气泡膜包裹着。

“It didn’t really inspire confidence,” Mr. Kalam admitted.

“这确实让人不太放心，”卡拉姆承认。

Mr. Kalam and eight of his friends order the drug in bulk. He understands that there is a risk in taking a drug that has not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. But he didn’t want to wait for the regulatory process to play out if he could take it sooner.

卡拉姆和他的八个朋友批量订购了这种药物。他明白，服用尚未获得美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)批准的药物存在风险。但他不想干等监管程序走完，希望能够尽快服用。

Mr. Kalam is tapping into a thriving black market for retatrutide, a peptide medication developed by Eli Lilly. On social media, influencers and medical spas advertise the drug using code words like “ratatouille” for retatrutide or “peps” for peptides to skirt restrictions on advertising drugs online. More dedicated users buy in bulk from China, trading recommendations for sellers over conversations on Reddit, Discord and WhatsApp, and pooling their resources to get third-party testing.

卡拉姆正涉足一个繁荣的瑞他鲁肽黑市，这是一种由礼来公司研发的肽类药物。在社交媒体上，网红和医疗水疗中心使用暗语来宣传这种药物，用“ratatouille”（料理鼠王）指代瑞他鲁肽，或用“peps”指代肽类，以规避在线药品广告的限制。更执着的用户会从中国批量购买，在Reddit、Discord和WhatsApp上交流卖家推荐信息，并集资进行第三方检测。

There are no clear estimates of how big this market is, but the information experts do have suggests it is sizable. An analysis of F.D.A. data by the Partnership for Safe Medicines, a nonprofit coalition linked to the pharmaceutical industry, showed that 15 pounds — perhaps hundreds of thousands of doses — of retatrutide have flowed into the country between January and April 2026. Some of those doses may have been shipped to scientists studying the drug. But a portion of that is probably going to the illicit market, said Shabbir Imber Safdar, the executive director of the nonprofit.

目前尚无关于该市场规模的明确估计，但专家掌握的信息表明其规模相当庞大。与制药行业有关联的非营利联盟安全药品合作组织对FDA数据的分析显示，2026年1月至4月，有约6.8公斤的瑞他鲁肽流入美国，可能相当于数十万剂。该非营利组织的执行主任沙比尔·因伯·萨夫达尔表示，其中部分剂量可能是运给研究该药物的科学家，但还有一部分很可能流向了非法市场。

“The bottom line is, the demand is fully there,” said Timothy Mackey, a professor at the University of California San Diego who studies counterfeit medications. “And there are lots of ways to get it.”

“归根结底，需求切实存在，”加州大学圣地亚哥分校研究假冒药物的教授蒂莫西·麦基说。“而且获取它的途径有很多。”

Eli Lilly has warned that products claiming to contain retatrutide may be contaminated or contain other substances entirely. “Any claim that black market retatrutide is the same as Lilly’s genuine medicine as studied in clinical trials is false,” Michael Jamison, a spokesman for the company, wrote.

礼来公司已发出警告，非正规渠道声称含有瑞他鲁肽的产品可能受到污染，或完全是其他物质。“任何声称黑市瑞他鲁肽与临床试验中礼来正品药物相同的说法，都是虚假的，”该公司发言人迈克尔·贾米森写道。

A Murky Marketplace

隐秘混乱的市场

The black market for retatrutide is an extreme example of consumers flouting the traditional medical system to get their hands on potent new weight-loss drugs. Millions of people have sought out unapproved compounded versions of these drugs from telehealth companies and medical spas as they look for cheaper and more accessible alternatives to brand-name versions.

瑞他鲁肽的黑市交易是消费者为获取强效新型减肥药而无视传统医疗体系的一个极端例子。数以百万计的人为寻找比品牌药更便宜、更容易获取的替代品，通过远程医疗公司和医疗水疗中心寻找这些药物未经批准的配制版本。

While there is no way to fully capture who is seeking out retatrutide online, customers for the drug seem to include people looking to lose more weight than they can with drugs already on the market, as well as bodybuilders and biohackers who also use other peptides.

虽然无法完全掌握到底是谁在网上寻找瑞他鲁肽，但该药物的客户群似乎包括那些希望减重幅度超越现有市售药物的人群，以及同时使用其他肽类药物的健美运动员和生物黑客。

Many of the people taking what they believe to be retatrutide buy it from online storefronts, which list the drug as a research chemical that is not for human use — a disclaimer that may let them take advantage of a loophole in drug regulation.

许多自认为正在服用瑞他鲁肽的人从网络商店购买这种药物，这些商店将该药物列为仅供研究用途、不可用于人体的化学品——这种免责声明可能让他们得以利用药品监管中的漏洞。

These websites often ship the drug as a powder that customers prepare and inject.

这些网站通常以粉末形式发送药物，由客户自行配制并注射。

Other users buy the drug from WhatsApp, Telegram and Discord groups. In one Telegram chat, a user posted dozens of videos a day showing a fridge stocked with vials for sale. In another Telegram group, this one with over 1,400 members, users replied to messages showing boxes that claimed to contain retatrutide and asked whether they could pay in Bitcoin.

还有些用户从WhatsApp、Telegram和Discord群组中购买这种药。在一个Telegram聊天群组里，一名用户每天发布数十个视频，展示塞满待售药瓶的冰箱。在另一个拥有1400多名成员的Telegram群组中，有用户回复了展示据称装有瑞他鲁肽包装盒的消息，并询问是否可以用比特币支付。

These groups are often run by middle men who place bulk orders of what they say is retatrutide, typically from Chinese labs, and then repackage it or use it to fill empty injection pens, said Luke Turnock, a senior lecturer in criminology at the University of Lincoln in England who studies peptides. Some sellers add their own branding and logos, like illustrations of molecules, that give a scientific sheen to their products.

英国林肯大学研究肽类物质的犯罪学高级讲师卢克·特诺克表示，这些群组通常由中间商运营，他们批量订购据称是瑞他鲁肽的药物（通常来自中国实验室），然后将其重新包装或灌装到空的注射笔中。一些卖家还会添加自己的品牌和标志（例如分子示意图），为产品增添一层科学的光环。

Some people have even bought these medications from health providers. In April, a federal grand jury indicted a Utah physician who had allegedly sold vials of retatrutide and other peptides to more than 200 patients. According to the indictment, that doctor made his own labels and did not disclose to patients that the medications had been ordered online from a company in China.

有些人甚至从医疗服务提供者那里购买这些药物。今年4月，一个联邦大陪审团起诉了一名犹他州的医生，指控他向200多名患者出售了瑞他鲁肽和其他肽类药物的安瓿。根据起诉书，该医生自制了标签，且并未向患者透露这些药物是在网上从中国一家公司订购的。

In some cases, patients have been able to fill prescriptions from providers at compounding pharmacies. The F.D.A. has warned companies that make drug ingredients to stop selling retatrutide to compounders. The agency cited one of those companies for unsanitary conditions, including “black chunks” in some of its pharmaceutical ingredients.

在某些情况下，患者还能在配制药房凭医嘱配制处方药。FDA已警告药品原料生产商，停止向配制药房出售瑞他鲁肽。该机构还以卫生条件不达标为由点名了其中一家公司，包括发现其部分药物成分中存在“黑色块状物”。

Investigators have tried to contain the flood of illicit retatrutide. Between December 2025 and March 2026, customs agents in Ohio caught more than 5,000 shipments of peptides, including retatrutide, smuggled in from China. But border agents can only examine a fraction of the packages that come into the country, said Dan Burke, who previously served as chief of the Investigative Services Division in the F.D.A.’s Office of Criminal Investigations.

调查人员曾试图遏制非法瑞他鲁肽的泛滥。2025年12月至2026年3月，俄亥俄州的海关人员查获了5000多批从中国走私入境的肽类药物，其中就包括瑞他鲁肽。但曾任FDA刑事调查办公室调查服务处处长的丹·伯克表示，边境执法人员只能检查入境包裹中的一小部分。

Easy Access, Little Certainty

易于获取，难辨真伪

The traditional process to get a drug approved by the F.D.A. takes years. Beyond clinical trial results, the agency reviews the drug’s ingredients and manufacturing process, including how the drugmaker plans to ensure the medicine is made safely. Investigators also inspect the facilities that will make the new drug. By the time a medicine makes it to market, doctors, statisticians, toxicology specialists and other experts have rigorously examined it.

通过FDA批准新药的传统流程需要数年时间。除了临床试验结果外，该机构还会审查药物的成分和制造过程，包括制药商计划如何确保药物的安全生产。调查人员还会检查生产这种新药的设施。到一种药物最终上市时，医生、统计学家、毒理学专家和其他专家已经对其进行了严格的审查。

People ordering retatrutide online, by contrast, have few ways of knowing whether they are getting the actual drug, or whether it’s sterile and safe to take.

相比之下，在网上订购瑞他鲁肽的人几乎无从得知自己收到的是否是真正的药物，也无法知道它是否无菌以及服用是否安全。

There are a number of third-party labs that now market their services to test retratrutide and other peptides, charging hundreds of dollars to analyze a single sample. Some of these labs are legitimate, Mr. Burke said. But others are less legitimate — and more akin to “someone that does this on the side in their basement,” he said.

现在有许多第三方实验室在推销自己检测瑞他鲁肽和其他肽类药物的服务，分析单个样本收费数百美元。伯克说，其中一些实验室是正规合法的，但也有一些不太正规——更像是“有人在自家地下室顺便搞的副业，”他说。

Mr. Jamison, the spokesman from Eli Lilly, said that proving that two drugs contain the same active ingredient required exhaustive testing, “not just the rudimentary tests commonly reflected on so-called ‘certificates of analysis.’”

礼来公司发言人贾米森表示，要证明两种药物含有相同的活性成分，需要进行详尽的测试，“而不仅仅是所谓‘分析证书’中通常体现的那些基础检测。”

Dr. Mackey said that some websites claiming to offer retatrutide might just be sending vials of other weight-loss drugs that are currently on the market, like semaglutide. It’s also possible that labs are making retatrutide, since the molecular structure of the drug is publicly available, Dr. Turnock said. But the average buyer is not using a testing service to confirm that, he added.

麦基表示，一些声称提供瑞他鲁肽的网站寄出的可能只是目前市场上其他减肥药（如司美格鲁肽）的安瓿。特诺克指出，由于该药物的分子结构是公开的，实验室也有可能自行制造瑞他鲁肽。但他还说，普通买家并不会使用检测服务来证实这一点。

“Unless you actually went to China and went to these labs, probably, you’d have no way of knowing,” he said.

“除非你真的去了中国，亲眼去看了这些实验室，否则恐怕根本无从知晓，”他说。

Even if a vial does contain retatrutide, the dearth of oversight means there are a number of other risks that can arise. The drug could be contaminated, or contain an incorrect dose.

即使安瓿里确实含有瑞他鲁肽，缺乏监管也意味着可能会出现许多其他风险。药物可能受到污染，或者剂量不准确。

An F.D.A. database showed that 40 people have reported having adverse reactions to retatrutide since 2024, including cardiac issues, appendicitis and blurred vision. Of these patients, 14 were hospitalized, and four were described as having “life-threatening” responses.

FDA数据库显示，自2024年以来，已有40人报告对瑞他鲁肽产生不良反应，包括心脏问题、阑尾炎和视力模糊，其中14人住院治疗，其中四人的反应被描述为“危及生命”。

Jacob Hanzel, 31, has been buying what he believes is retatrutide from a WhatsApp group since last year.

31岁的雅各布·汉泽尔从去年开始一直通过一个WhatsApp群组购买他认为是瑞他鲁肽的药物。

Mr. Hanzel first tried to get retatrutide in a clinical trial. When he wasn’t successful, he started shopping online. He felt he desperately needed to lose a significant amount of weight. When he started taking the drug, he weighed 447 pounds.

汉泽尔最初试图通过参加临床试验来获得瑞他鲁肽。由于未能如愿，他开始在网上购买。他觉得自己迫切需要大幅减重。开始服用该药物时，他的体重约为202公斤。

Mr. Hanzel has asked his doctor to regularly check his heart rate, blood sugar level and other bloodwork to make sure there are no warning signs of issues from the drug. Rather than “blindly trusting” the seller, he said, he also sends every batch to a lab to make sure it is pure, dosed correctly and doesn’t contain heavy metals.

汉泽尔先生已要求医生定期检查他的心率、血糖水平和其他血液指标，以确保没有该药物引发问题的预警信号。他说，自己没有“盲目信任”卖家，会将每一批药物都送到实验室，以确保其纯度过关、剂量正确且不含重金属。

“I was willing to take this risk,” he said. “While knowing it’s still a risk.”

“我愿意冒这个风险，”他说。“尽管我知道这依然是个风险。”

While the United States and Iran haggle over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring oil exports from the Persian Gulf, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is not expected to quickly ramp up purchases from the region.

尽管美国和伊朗正在就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、恢复波斯湾石油出口进行讨价还价，但全球最大石油进口国中国预计不会迅速增加从该地区的采购。

If normal traffic through the strait fully resumes in the coming weeks, numerous tankers carrying oil bound for China that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf during the war would be on the move again. Their eventual arrival at Chinese ports is likely to produce a temporary surge in deliveries.

如果未来几周霍尔木兹海峡的航运完全恢复正常，那么战争期间滞留在波斯湾、原本前往中国的许多油轮将重新启航。这些油轮陆续抵达中国港口后，可能会带来短暂的原油到港高峰。

China finds itself in a very different position from much of the world, which is emerging from the war in Iran with depleted oil supplies.

在伊朗战争结束之际，世界大多数国家的石油储备已经告急，而中国的境况则迥然不同。

The crude stockpiles held by the country’s state-owned energy companies remain nearly full. Beijing appears not to have tapped its vast strategic reserves, and storage tanks at Chinese refineries are brimming with gasoline, diesel and other refined products.

中国国有能源企业持有的原油库存依然接近满仓。北京方面似乎并未动用庞大的战略储备，而中国炼油厂的储罐里也装满了汽油、柴油和其他成品油。

China cut its daily oil imports by roughly a third during the war. The pullback, driven largely by higher prices, helped ease some of the upward pressure on global oil markets caused by the almost complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

战争期间，中国每天的石油进口量减少了约三分之一。这种主要由油价上涨推动的进口减少在一定程度上缓解了霍尔木兹海峡几乎完全关闭所造成的国际油价上行压力。

China was able to reduce imports so sharply in part because it had been buying more oil than it needed before the war. For years, it accumulated inventories whenever prices were low as part of a broader push to strengthen national self-reliance and improve its ability to withstand supply disruptions.

中国之所以能够如此大幅地减少进口，部分原因在于它在战前的石油采购量就已经超过了自身需求。多年来，只要价格走低，中国就会囤积库存，这是它增强自给能力和提升供应中断应对能力的整体努力的一部分。

China also imported additional oil to reduce its trade surplus. In recent years, Beijing has increasingly parked excess foreign exchange earnings in stockpiles of commodities such as oil rather than overseas bank deposits or Treasury bonds, after watching Western governments freeze Russia’s foreign assets following its invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

中国还通过增加石油进口来压缩贸易顺差。目睹西方国家在四年前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后冻结俄罗斯海外资产的举动，北京近年来越来越倾向于将过剩的外汇收入转化为石油等大宗商品储备，而非存入海外银行账户或购买美国国债。

Few analysts expect China to quickly return to its previous pace of imports, particularly as world oil prices still have not fallen back to their levels before the Iran war.

分析人士普遍认为，中国不会迅速恢复到战前的进口规模，尤其是在国际油价仍未回落至伊朗战争爆发前水平的情况下。

“I would expect China’s oil companies to continue to be price sensitive and to increase their purchases gradually,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a longtime China oil specialist at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“我预计中国的石油企业仍然会对价格非常敏感，将逐步增加采购量，”牛津能源研究所资深中国石油问题专家菲利普·安德鲁斯-斯皮德表示。

油轮在青岛港的一个码头卸原油，摄于今年3月。

Chinese companies kept their refineries running throughout the war by drawing on their extensive corporate stockpiles of crude. But demand in China for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined products appears to have weakened as prices rose and households and businesses became cautious about fuel consumption. Sales of gasoline-powered cars plunged in April and May.

通过动用企业庞大的原油库存，中国公司在整场战争期间维持了炼油厂的运转。但随着油价上涨，居民和企业对燃料消费变得更加谨慎，中国对汽油、柴油、航空燃油等成品油的需求似乎有所减弱。4月和5月，燃油车销量大幅下滑。

At the same time, the Chinese government halted most exports of refined products this spring to ensure adequate domestic supplies. The move contributed to severe shortages elsewhere in Asia, particularly in developing countries with limited refining capacity. China overtook the United States in 2024 to become the world’s largest oil refiner and is typically a major supplier of refined fuels to neighboring countries.

与此同时，中国今年春季暂停了大部分成品油出口，以确保国内供应。此举加剧了亚洲其他地区的严重短缺，尤其是炼油能力有限的发展中国家。中国在2024年超越美国成为全球最大炼油国，通常是邻国成品油的主要供应国。

The combination of weak domestic demand and the export halt has left storage tanks so full of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products that oil companies have little incentive to buy and process additional crude, analysts said.

分析人士指出，内需疲软与出口暂停的叠加导致汽油、柴油、航空燃油等各类成品油储罐爆满，石油企业因而几乎没有动力购买和加工更多原油。

“I don’t expect China’s crude imports to structurally recover to prewar levels anytime soon,” said Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at the data service Kpler.

“我预计短期内，中国的原油进口不会从结构上恢复到战前水平，”数据服务机构Kpler的高级石油分析师徐慕宇表示。

Imports could increase if Beijing suddenly decided to allow unrestricted exports of refined products that are now in short supply elsewhere. But China has long taken a cautious approach to energy policy. Uncertainty also lingers over how quickly any mines that Iran may have laid in the strait can be cleared and whether the U.S.-Iranian agreement will hold. The accord’s main provisions last only 60 days.

如果北京突然决定允许不受限制地出口目前其他地区短缺的成品油，那么原油的进口量可能会上升。但中国长期以来在能源政策上采取审慎态度。此外，伊朗可能在海峡布设的水雷能否迅速清除，以及美伊协议能否维系，仍存在不确定性。该协议的主要条款有效期仅为60天。

“The central risk of conflict in the region is not removed,” said David Broadstock, a partner and oil analyst at the Lantau Group, an East Asian energy consulting firm.

“地区冲突的核心风险并未消除，”东亚能源咨询公司Lantau Group合伙人兼石油分析师戴维·布罗德斯托克表示。

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has welcomed the agreement and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while offering little indication of how Beijing might adjust its energy policies. “Early resumption of safe and free passage through the strait serves the interests of all parties,” Lin Jian, a ministry spokesman, said at a briefing on June 16.

中国外交部对协议以及霍尔木兹海峡可能重新开放表示欢迎，但并未明确说明北京将如何调整其能源政策。外交部发言人林剑在6月16日的记者会上表示：“尽早恢复海峡安全、自由通行符合各方利益。”

北京一家加油站，摄于今年3月。随着油价上涨、家庭对燃油消费变得谨慎，中国的汽油需求似乎已有所减弱。

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted much of China’s oil supply not only from Iran but also from other Persian Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

霍尔木兹海峡关闭期间，中国不仅从伊朗进口石油受阻，从沙特阿拉伯、科威特等其他波斯湾产油国获得的供应也受到严重影响。

Yet the terms of the 60-day agreement between Washington and Tehran also remove much of the incentive for China’s small independent refiners to keep buying large volumes of Iranian oil.

然而，华盛顿与德黑兰达成的60天协议条款也在很大程度上削弱了中国的小型独立炼油厂继续大量购买伊朗石油的动力。

The agreement calls for the United States to work with other countries and the United Nations to remove international sanctions on Iranian oil exports. If that happens, China’s refiners could lose the discounts of $3 to $10 per barrel they have enjoyed by purchasing Iranian crude despite international sanctions.

该协议要求美国与其他国家和联合国合作，解除对伊朗石油出口的国际制裁。一旦制裁解除，中国炼油厂可能会失去他们因无视国际制裁购买伊朗原油而享有的每桶3至10美元的折扣。

Those discounts generated savings worth several hundred million dollars a month for Chinese refiners. Before the closure of the strait, China was buying over 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, or more than 1.5 million barrels a day, according to estimates by Kpler.

这些折扣曾为中国炼油企业每月节省数亿美元。根据Kpler的估算，海峡关闭之前，中国购买了伊朗超过90%的石油出口量，日均超过150万桶。

Oil sales to China have accounted for 6 percent or more of the economies of Iran and Russia in recent years. Western governments have long argued that those purchases have helped Iran finance proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen and enabled Russia to fund its war in Ukraine.

近年来，对中国的石油销售已占伊朗和俄罗斯经济总量的6%或更高比例。西方国家政府长期以来一直认为，这些采购帮助伊朗资助了其在黎巴嫩、伊拉克、叙利亚和也门的代理人武装，同时也帮助俄罗斯为其在乌克兰的战争提供了资金。

Beijing, however, maintains that it is not bound by many Western restrictions on Iranian and Russian oil because they were not approved by the United Nations. Russia and China have repeatedly used their positions as permanent members on the U.N. Security Council to block such measures, contending that trade and engagement are more effective than sanctions in addressing issues like Iran’s nuclear program.

不过，北京坚持认为，许多针对伊朗和俄罗斯石油的西方限制措施并不具有约束力，因为这些措施并未获得联合国批准。俄罗斯和中国多次利用在联合国安理会的常任理事国地位否决相关制裁措施，认为贸易和接触比制裁更能有效化解伊朗核计划等问题。

President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan voiced “high hopes” on Thursday that President Trump would approve $14 billion in arms orders for the island, downplaying concerns raised last month when Mr. Trump suggested U.S. military support for Taiwan was negotiable, unsettling longstanding American policy.

周四，台湾总统赖清德表示对特朗普总统批准140亿美元对台军售“寄以厚望”，意在打消上个月特朗普的言论引起的忧虑。当时特朗普暗示美国对台湾的军事支持是可以谈判的，这动摇了长期以来的美国政策。

Mr. Lai gave an optimistic take on Taiwan’s standing with the United States, which has taken a blow since Mr. Trump said in May that U.S. weapons sales were a “negotiating chip” with China and suggested that Mr. Lai was a source of instability across the Taiwan Strait — a characterization often pushed by Beijing.

赖清德对台湾在美国眼中的地位持乐观态度，但这一地位自特朗普5月的发言以来已受到打击。特朗普称美国对台武器销售是与中国的“谈判筹码”，并暗示赖清德是台海不稳定的根源——这是一种北京常宣扬的论调。

Mr. Lai, speaking at a news conference for foreign media outlets in Taipei, sought to assuage concerns, describing Mr. Trump as a strong supporter of Taiwan. The island has for decades relied on military and political support from Washington to counter an increasingly powerful Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory. In the most extreme scenario, China could try to take Taiwan by force, risking a war that could draw in the United States.

赖清德在台北举行的外国媒体新闻发布会上发言，试图缓解外界担忧，他称特朗普是台湾的坚定支持者。数十年来，台湾一直依靠华盛顿的军事和政治支持来对抗日益强大的北京，后者声称台湾是其领土。在最极端的情况下，中国可能试图以武力夺取台湾，从而引发可能将美国卷入的战争。

During Mr. Trump’s first term, he approved $18 billion of weapons sales to the island, Mr. Lai said. And late last year, Mr. Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, drawing condemnation from Beijing. But Mr. Trump has held off on a decision about $14 billion of missiles and other military hardware from U.S. companies, which Taiwan’s legislature voted to pay for in May.

赖清德表示，特朗普在第一个任期内批准了180亿美元的对台武器销售。去年年底，特朗普批准了110亿美元的对台军售方案，引发北京的谴责。但特朗普一直没有就一项140亿美元的导弹和其他美制军事装备交易作出决定，而台湾立法院已在5月投票通过拨款。

“President Trump’s arms sales for Taiwan have basically met Taiwan’s needs, and so we also have high hopes about these upcoming arms sales,” Mr. Lai said, when asked about the $14 billion package that Mr. Trump has delayed approving. “I’m confident that after the U.S. government conducts a detailed review, it can be passed.”

“川普总统对台湾的军售基本上都满足了台湾的需求，因此我们对后续的军售的这些专案也会寄以厚望，”在被问及特朗普一直延迟批准的140亿美元军售方案时，赖清德说。“那我相信只要美国政府经过详细的审查之后，应该可望可以通过。”

Not all experts and officials in Taiwan are as confident in Mr. Trump, who has lately focused on building relations with Mr. Xi.

并非所有台湾专家和官员都对特朗普抱有同样信心，他近来重点致力于与习近平建立关系。

When the two leaders met in Beijing in May, Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump that Taiwan was “the most critical issue in China-U.S. relations.” Soon after the meeting, Mr. Trump told reporters that he saw the arms sales to Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip” with China, which he is counting on to make major purchases of American goods. He also suggested that a longstanding American promise not to discuss weapons sales to the island with China was out of date.

两位领导人在5月于北京会晤时，习近平警告特朗普，台湾是“中美关系中最关键的问题”。会晤后不久，特朗普告诉记者，他视对台军售为与中国的“非常好的谈判筹码”，他指望中国大量采购美国商品。他还暗示，美国长期以来不就对台军售与中国磋商的承诺已经过时。

Mr. Trump later appeared to echo Mr. Xi’s view that Mr. Lai was seeking independence for Taiwan, a step that Beijing has said could prompt war. (Mr. Lai has said that Taiwan is already in practice independent and that he is not seeking a formal change to its status.)

特朗普后来似乎附和了习近平的观点，认为赖清德正在寻求台湾独立，而北京表示这一步可能引发战争。（赖清德曾表示，台湾事实上已经独立，他并未寻求正式改变其地位。）

上周，台湾台中一场训练中的美制火箭系统。

Since taking office in 2024, Mr. Lai has made strengthening ties with the United States and other Western countries a key theme of his administration. But the uncertainties about Mr. Trump’s intentions have cast a shadow over Taiwan’s military plans and Mr. Lai’s political prospects.

自2024年上任以来，赖清德将加强与美国及其他西方国家的关系作为其施政重点。但特朗普意图的不确定性给台湾的军事规划和赖清德的政治前景蒙上了阴影。

Some Trump administration officials have recently become cooler in their rhetorical support for Taiwan. During his speech at a recent security forum in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth did not mention Taiwan, a marked shift from his comments at the same event last year.

特朗普政府的一些官员近来在对台的言辞支持上有所降温。最近在新加坡举行的安全论坛上，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯并未提及台湾，与他在去年同一场合的表态相比存在明显转变。

To counter the anxieties, Mr. Lai and his officials have repeatedly cited statements from Trump administration officials that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged. Earlier this month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the United States does not “consult with the Chinese on these arms sales” and the $14 billion package was “under review.”

为缓解焦虑，赖清德及其官员反复引用特朗普政府官员的声明，称美国对台政策保持不变。本月早些时候，美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥在参议院外交关系委员会作证时表示，美国不会“就这些军售与中国进行磋商”，而140亿美元的方案“正在审查中”。

“What I can confirm is that the United States’ security commitment to Taiwan remains unchanged and that both sides are in accord on the goal of strengthening security and accelerating the buildup of Taiwan’s defense capabilities,” Mr. Lai said on Thursday.

赖清德周四表示：“我可以确认的是美国对台湾的安全承诺是没有改变的。双方对于强化安全、加速强化台湾自我防卫能力的目标也是一致的。”

Still, experts have said that Mr. Trump may delay an approval of the $14 billion in proposed weapons until after a planned summit with Mr. Xi in September, and possibly longer. If Mr. Trump approves even part of that package, the reaction from China could be intense, said Chieh Chung, an adjunct associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded body in Taipei.

尽管如此，专家表示，特朗普可能推迟批准这项价值140亿美元的军售计划，直到9月与习近平举行峰会之后，甚至可能更久。台北政府资助的国防安全研究院兼任副研究员揭仲表示，即使特朗普只批准该方案的一部分，中国的反应都可能非常强烈。

“Xi Jinping himself has linked the issue of arms sales to Taiwan to his own prestige,” Mr. Chieh said. If Mr. Trump signs off on the arms sales for Taiwan in coming months, Mr. Xi could “postpone his visit to Washington and refuse to fulfill the purchase commitments that he made to the U.S. during the Trump-Xi summit” in Beijing, Mr. Chieh said.

“习近平本人又将对台军售与自己的威信连结的情况下，”如果特朗普在未来几个月批准对台军售，揭仲说，习近平可能会“推迟前往华府并拒绝履行川习会中的对美采购承诺”。

Just after midnight in Tehran earlier this week, a motorcade speeding to the airport came to a sudden stop. Qatari officials emerged from their cars and huddled on the side of the road. Yet another last-minute crisis had come up in the marathon Iran talks, and the Qataris had clear instructions from their leadership not to leave without an announced deal.

本周早些时候，德黑兰时间午夜刚过，一支疾驰前往机场的车队突然停了下来。卡塔尔官员从车里出来，聚拢在路边商讨。马拉松式的伊朗谈判又在最后一刻出了状况，而卡塔尔人接到的国内领导层的指示很明确：不宣布达成协议，就不能离开。

In Washington, President Trump was getting ready for a birthday dinner. International mediators believed the birthday — and the U.F.C. cage match scheduled for Sunday night — could put Mr. Trump in the mood to sign the agreement on that day.

在华盛顿，特朗普总统正准备参加一场生日晚宴。国际调解方相信，生日以及周日晚间的终极格斗冠军赛可能会让特朗普有心情在当天签署协议。

In Israel, officials were already grappling with a humiliating setback, in what appeared to be their closest ally’s imminent separate agreement with Israel’s archenemy. The deal appeared on track despite Israel’s decision to attack a Beirut suburb that day without consulting with the United States.

在以色列，官员们正在艰难消化一个丢脸的挫折：他们最亲密的盟友似乎即将与以色列的头号敌人单独达成协议。尽管以色列当天未与美国磋商就轰炸了贝鲁特一处郊区，该协议似乎仍在按计划推进。

But on the Tehran roadside, the Qataris were dealing with disagreements about the phrasing of the announcement. Finally, after more calls, the Qataris got back in their cars and headed for the airport. Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, announced the deal at 12:45 a.m. Monday in Tehran and Mr. Trump confirmed it minutes later, revealing a good-will gesture to the Iranians: the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports immediately.

但在德黑兰的路边，卡塔尔人正忙于应付围绕协议声明措辞产生的分歧。经过更多通话协调后，他们终于回到车上，继续赶往机场。巴基斯坦总理谢里夫于德黑兰时间周一凌晨12点45分宣布达成协议，特朗普几分钟后予以确认，并向伊朗作出了一个善意姿态：美国将立即解除对伊朗港口的海上封锁。

Last weekend, four months of war and 47 years of confrontation between the United States and Iran came to a head in an extraordinary diplomatic rush that repeatedly threatened to spiral into more bloodshed. Negotiators were wrangling over issues with wide significance for the world economy, Mideast geopolitics and U.S. domestic politics.

上周末，持续四个月的战争以及美伊长达47年的对抗在一场非同寻常的外交冲刺中达到紧要关头，期间多次险些演变为更多流血冲突。谈判代表围绕一系列具有重大影响的问题展开拉锯，这些问题事关全球经济、中东地缘政治以及美国国内政治。

Mr. Trump sought a deal he could sell as making good on his promise to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, even though the establishment of specific protections was being kicked to a later negotiation. Iran was determined to avoid giving up what it says is its right to enrich uranium, while maximizing what it could extract in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

特朗普希望达成一项能够让他宣称自己兑现了“阻止伊朗拥有核武器”承诺的协议，尽管具体的保障机制留待后续谈判解决。伊朗则坚决捍卫其所称的铀浓缩权利，同时力求在重开霍尔木兹海峡的交换中争取最大利益。

This account of the final hours of the negotiations for a deal to declare a cease-fire and begin nuclear talks is based on interviews with officials in Washington, Europe and across the Middle East, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the secret talks.

基于对华盛顿、欧洲及中东各地官员的采访，本文还原了这份宣布停火并启动核谈判的协议在达成前最后数小时各方的博弈。由于涉及秘密谈判，受访者大多要求匿名。

Already, Mr. Trump is facing criticism even from some supporters that the “memorandum of understanding” between the two sides gives away too much to Iran. The agreement, the text of which was released by the White House on Wednesday, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and outlines a $300 billion plan for Iran’s reconstruction and development. But it also pushes talks about Iran’s nuclear program into future negotiations, essentially punting on the hardest issue.

特朗普眼下已面临批评，甚至就连一些支持者也认为，这份“谅解备忘录”对伊朗让步过多。周三白宫公布的协议文本承诺重开霍尔木兹海峡，并勾勒出一项规模达3000亿美元的伊朗重建与发展计划。但与此同时，它把有关伊朗核计划的讨论推迟到未来谈判中，实际上回避了最棘手的问题。

Throughout the weekend, Iran showed a willingness to keep pushing for more U.S. concessions despite the constant threat of more airstrikes, which Mr. Trump renewed on Wednesday. Israeli officials fretted they were failing to convince the United States that the deal could create grave risks to Israel’s security and leave the nuclear issue unaddressed. And Qatari officials led a back-channel mediating effort, telling the Iranians they needed to give their final sign-off to the deal before the start of the U.F.C. match on the White House lawn.

整个周末，伊朗表现出愿意继续推动美国做出更多让步的迹象，尽管后者不断以发动更多空袭相威胁——特朗普周三又重申了这一威胁。以色列官员则在担心，他们未能说服美国正视这项协议可能对以色列安全构成的严重风险，而且它没有解决核问题。卡塔尔官员主导了幕后调解工作，他们告诉伊朗方面，必须在白宫南草坪举行的终极格斗冠军赛开始之前对协议作出最终确认。

Mr. Trump appeared eager to get the deal done, a circumstance not lost on another key mediator, Pakistan. Two experts familiar with Pakistan’s mediation said Syed Asim Munir, the country’s powerful army chief, wanted the deal to be signed on Mr. Trump’s birthday.

特朗普似乎急于完成协议，这一点没有逃过另一位关键调解者巴基斯坦的注意。两位熟悉巴基斯坦调停工作的专家表示，该国位高权重的陆军参谋长穆尼尔希望协议能够在特朗普生日当天签署。

“The birthday was a way to woo him,” Qamar Cheema, the head of an Islamabad-based research institute privy to Pakistan’s role in the mediation, said about Mr. Trump.

“生日是一个讨好他的机会。”对巴基斯坦调解工作颇为了解的伊斯兰堡一家研究机构的负责人卡马尔·齐马谈及特朗普时说道。

Another person familiar with the matter insisted that Mr. Trump’s birthday had nothing to do with the timing.

不过，另一位知情人士坚称，特朗普的生日与协议的时间安排没有联系。

4月，副总统万斯与巴基斯坦军方领导人穆尼尔在伊斯兰堡举行会面。

But two Iranian officials said Tehran waited until the clock passed midnight local time to finalize the agreement, because it did not want the momentous occasion to coincide with Mr. Trump’s birthday. The seven-and-a-half-hour time difference allowed both Tehran and Washington to claim their preferred version of when the deal was finalized. Mr. Trump had said it would be on Sunday, and Iran had said it would be on a later day.

但两名伊朗官员透露，德黑兰有意等到当地时间午夜过后才最终确认协议，因为伊朗不希望这样一个重大时刻与特朗普的生日重叠。七个半小时的时差让德黑兰和华盛顿都可以宣称协议是在各自偏好的日期敲定的——特朗普说是周日，伊朗则称是在之后的一天。

Cycles of Escalation

升级循环

Since announcing a cease-fire with Iran in April, Mr. Trump had repeatedly cycled between claiming that a peace deal was near, threatening to order a devastating bombardment and then backing away from the threats.

自4月宣布与伊朗停火以来，特朗普不断在声称和平协议即将达成、威胁发动毁灭性轰炸以及随后收回威胁之间反复摇摆。

Last week appeared to be another such episode, with a cycle of escalation that began with the downing of an American helicopter and ending last Thursday with Mr. Trump calling off a planned attack on Iran. A drawn-out period of stalled talks and simmering violence seemed to be a likely scenario.

上周似乎又是这样一个循环。紧张局势升级始于一架美国直升机被击落，直至上周四特朗普宣布取消对伊朗的打击计划而暂告一段落。谈判停滞、暴力冲突持续发酵的局面似乎可能长期持续下去。

U.S. intelligence officials were deeply skeptical of Iran’s willingness to make meaningful concessions. Intelligence collection was showing that Iranian officials were taking a different stance among themselves than what they were expressing to the lead U.S. negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to people familiar with the assessments.

美国情报官员对伊朗是否愿意作出实质性让步深表怀疑。根据了解相关评估的人士透露，情报显示，伊朗官员私下讨论时所持有的立场与他们向美国首席谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳表达的立场并不一致。

The C.I.A. even assessed last week — incorrectly, it turned out — that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, would not agree to the memorandum of understanding that Iran and the United States were negotiating, according to a person familiar with the matter.

据一名知情人士透露，中央情报局甚至在上周还认为，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊不会同意美伊两国正在谈判的这份谅解备忘录，事后证明这一判断有误。

But Mr. Trump remained bullish on the possibility of a deal. Speaking to The New York Times on Sunday, Mr. Trump said that the airstrikes he had launched on Iran in recent weeks were “very brutal,” and that the attack he called off would have been even more intense.

但特朗普始终对达成协议持乐观态度。周日接受《纽约时报》采访时，他表示，自己最近几周对伊朗发动的空袭“极其猛烈”，而他后来取消的那次打击行动本来还会更加激烈。

“We explained to them that they can’t do anything about it,” Mr. Trump said. “They said, ‘Please don’t do it; we will make a deal.’ And we made a deal right after that.”

“我们向他们解释过，他们对此是无能为力的，”特朗普说道，“他们说：‘请不要这么做，我们会达成协议。’于是紧接着我们就达成了协议。”

On Saturday, Pakistan’s prime minister said Iran and the United States were “closer to a peace deal than ever before” and promised an agreement within 24 hours.

周六，巴基斯坦总理表示伊朗和美国“比以往任何时候都更接近和平协议”，并许诺，协议将在24小时内达成。

The same day, Mr. Khamenei told Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the lead negotiator and speaker of Iran’s parliament, that he approved of the final text of the agreement, according to four Iranian officials.

同一天，哈梅内伊告知首席谈判代表、伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫将军，他批准了协议的最终文本。

He directed Mr. Ghalibaf to put the document to a vote at the 13-member Supreme National Security Council and, if a three-fourths majority was reached, to proceed with signing, according to the four Iranian officials.

据四名伊朗官员透露，他指示卡利巴夫将文件提交给由13人组成的最高国家安全委员会投票，若获得四分之三多数支持，就可以推进签署程序。

Gathering in a secret location, the council approved the deal, though at least two hard-line members voted against it.

委员会在一个秘密地点召开会议并通过了该协议，但至少有两名强硬派成员投了反对票。

“There were, of course, some minor differences of opinion on a limited number of issues,” Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said in televised remarks.

“当然，在少数问题上存在一些小的分歧。”伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬在电视讲话中表示。

On Sunday morning, Qatar’s main negotiators, Ali al-Thawadi and Hamad al-Kubaisi, landed in Tehran to hammer out the details. Qatar’s negotiating team had been shuttling for weeks between the United States and Iran, at one point flying to Tehran via Turkey to keep the trip under wraps. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, had hosted Iranian officials for a 12-hour session in Doha on May 25.

周日早上，卡塔尔的主要谈判代表阿勒萨尼和阿勒库拜西飞抵德黑兰，就细节问题展开最后磋商。卡塔尔谈判团队数周来一直在美伊之间穿梭斡旋，一度为掩人耳目绕道土耳其飞赴德黑兰。卡塔尔首相穆罕默德曾于5月25日在多哈接待伊朗官员，双方进行了长达12小时的会谈。

During the war, the United States and Iran had asked the Qataris to mediate between them, but they refused as long as they were coming under Iranian missile and drone attacks. It was only in mid-May, when a cease-fire was in place but the talks were at a nadir, that Qatar took on a prominent mediating role.

战争期间，美伊双方均曾邀请卡塔尔从中斡旋，但由于卡塔尔本身正遭受伊朗导弹和无人机袭击，因此拒绝介入。直至5月中旬，停火已成定局但谈判陷入低谷之际，卡塔尔才正式扮演起重要的调解角色。

Then, on Sunday, Israel struck a Beirut suburb, killing three people, setting off another scramble. There was no coordination with the United States before the strike, only a notification to the U.S. military a few minutes before it began, according to an Israeli defense officials and a U.S. military official.

就在周日，以色列空袭了贝鲁特一处郊区，造成三人死亡，再度引发各方紧急应对。据一名以色列国防官员和一名美国军方官员透露，以色列此次行动事前未与美国协调，仅提前几分钟通知了美军。

周日，贝鲁特郊区遭以色列空袭后的损毁情况。

It was an aggressive response to attacks by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed force in Lebanon, that wounded two Israeli soldiers.

这是针对伊朗支持的武装力量黎巴嫩真主党袭击行动的强硬回应，此前真主党的袭击导致两名以色列士兵受伤。

Iran had defined targeting the Beirut suburb as a red line and said any agreement between Tehran and Washington needed to include an end to the conflict in Lebanon. But Israel, which had been left out of the U.S.-Iran talks despite having waged war against Iran alongside the United States, had repeatedly signaled that it did not feel bound by such agreements.

伊朗早已将针对贝鲁特郊区的袭击划为红线，并表示德黑兰与华盛顿之间的任何协议都必须包含结束黎巴嫩冲突的内容。然而，被排除在美伊谈判之外的以色列——尽管它与美国一道对伊朗发动战争——却一再表明，它并不认为自己必须受到这类协议约束。

A Deal on Thin Ice

协议岌岌可危

Military advisers to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told him that the move would almost certainly lead to the launch of Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel. They warned the world could interpret Israel’s strike as an attempt to derail a deal on the verge of being signed.

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的军事顾问告诉他，此举几乎必然导致伊朗向以色列发射弹道导弹。他们警告，国际社会可能会将此次袭击视为以色列试图破坏一项即将签署的协议。

But Mr. Netanyahu was facing sharp criticism at home for not taking a more aggressive approach in Lebanon and for failing to thwart a deal that the Israeli leadership sees as creating grave risks to Israel’s security.

但内塔尼亚胡在国内面临严厉批评，指责他在黎巴嫩问题上不够强硬，也未能阻止一项以色列领导层认为会给国家安全带来严重风险的协议。

Israel soon learned that Iran was, in fact, preparing to respond with missiles. In Tehran, Israel’s attack seemed to validate the skepticism voiced by many officials about America’s good faith in the negotiations. Instead, some saw the United States and Israel playing a good-cop, bad-cop game against Iran that they were coordinating behind the scenes, four Iranian officials said.

以色列随即获悉，伊朗确实正在准备用导弹予以回击。在德黑兰，以色列的袭击似乎印证了许多伊朗官员对美国谈判诚意的怀疑。四名伊朗官员表示，部分人认为美以在背地里配合对伊朗上演“一个唱红脸、一个唱白脸”的戏码。

Ballistic missiles were placed in launchers along Iran’s western borders and the order was to fire them toward Israel at around 1 a.m., said two Iranian officials, one with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

两名伊朗官员——其中一人来自伊斯兰革命卫队——表示，弹道导弹已经在伊朗西部边境的发射装置上就位，并接到命令，计划于凌晨1点左右向以色列发射。

Furious Iranian officials told the Qataris that they were planning an attack on Israel and would suspend signing the agreement. The Qataris pushed back in talks with their main Iranian interlocutors, Mr. Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister.

愤怒的伊朗官员告诉卡塔尔方面，他们准备攻击以色列，并暂停签署协议。卡塔尔则与伊朗主要谈判代表卡利巴夫和外长阿拉格齐展开沟通，试图加以劝阻。

Striking Israel would only play into the hands of the deal’s opponents, the Qataris told the Iranians. Repeatedly, the Qataris made calls to the United States, conveying messages from the Iranians to Mr. Witkoff, Mr. Kushner and Vice President JD Vance.

卡塔尔方面告诉伊朗人，打击以色列只会便宜了协议的反对者。卡塔尔人反复致电美国方面，向维特科夫、库什纳和副总统万斯传达伊朗的信息。

Internally, there were divisions among Iran’s leadership. Mr. Pezeshkian, Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Ghalibaf argued that Mr. Netanyahu was setting a trap for Iran and the attack on Beirut was bait for Iran to respond. Tit-for-tat fighting would ensue, they warned, and the deal would fall apart.

伊朗领导层内部也出现了分歧。佩泽希齐扬、阿拉格奇和卡利巴夫认为，内塔尼亚胡是在给伊朗下套，袭击贝鲁特不过是诱使伊朗上钩的诱饵。他们警告说，一旦双方陷入针锋相对的报复行动，协议就会彻底破裂。

The deal again seemed to be on thin ice. Iran sought to insert last-minute language into the text. The Qataris insisted the wording could not be changed in the 11th hour. As the haggling dragged on, the Qataris warned the Iranians they risked Mr. Trump’s patience, especially as the start of the U.F.C. match on the White House lawn approached.

协议再次看似岌岌可危。伊朗试图在最后一刻给文本中加入新的表述。卡塔尔坚持在最后关头不能更改措辞。随着讨价还价持续进行，卡塔尔警告伊朗，他们正在考验特朗普的耐心，尤其是白宫南草坪上的终极格斗冠军赛即将开始。

But Mr. Trump also showed he was eager to seal the deal. He posted on Truth Social that the Israeli attack on Beirut “should not have happened.” When he confirmed the deal in another post hours later, Mr. Trump also declared that he would order “the immediate removal” of the U.S. blockade on Iran.

但特朗普也表现出敲定协议的强烈意愿。他在Truth Social上发贴，称以色列对贝鲁特的袭击“本不该发生”。几个小时后，他在确认达成协议的另一条帖子中还宣布，将下令“立即解除”美国对伊朗实施的封锁。

The text of the agreement said the United States would end its blockade within 30 days. Administration officials insisted that promising an immediate end to it was not an added inducement to get Iran on board, but rather, one said, “an act of graciousness.”

协议文本称美国将在30天内结束封锁。政府官员坚称，承诺立即解除封锁并不是为了诱使伊朗接受协议而额外增加的让步，一位官员表示，这只是“一种善意之举”。

Afterward, Mr. Trump placed a call to a New York Times reporter to explain the deal, even as, he said, his “wonderful family” was waiting for his birthday dinner to begin.

协议敲定后，特朗普拨通了《纽约时报》记者的电话，亲自解释协议内容——尽管他说，他“美好的家人们”正在等他开始生日晚宴。

Robert Thurman, whose erudite, exuberant efforts to expand the West’s understanding of Tibetan Buddhism earned him a reputation as “the Dalai Lama’s man in America,” died on Tuesday at his home in Woodstock, N.Y. He was 84.

因学识渊博、热情洋溢地致力于增进西方对藏传佛教的理解，罗伯特·瑟曼被誉为“达赖喇嘛在美国的代言人”。他于周二在纽约州伍德斯托克的家中去世，享年84岁。

His daughter, the actress Uma Thurman, confirmed the death.

他的女儿、演员乌玛·瑟曼证实了他的死讯。

Widely considered the foremost expert on Tibetan Buddhism in the United States, Dr. Thurman was a former Buddhist monk who had been ordained and partly trained by the Dalai Lama himself. He later earned a doctorate in Indic studies from Harvard and taught at Amherst and Columbia.

瑟曼被公认为美国首屈一指的藏传佛教专家。他曾是一名佛教僧侣，达赖喇嘛亲自为他授戒，并对他进行部分培训。后来，他获得了哈佛大学的印度学博士学位，并在阿默斯特学院和哥伦比亚大学任教。

He wrote, edited and translated more than 20 books on Buddhism. Some of them were centuries-old texts intended for scholars and advanced practitioners; others, like “Inner Revolution: Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Real Happiness” (1998), were written for the broader public and sold briskly.

他撰写、编辑并翻译了20多本关于佛教的书籍。其中一些译作是流传了几个世纪的经典，面向学者和高级修行者；另一些则是面向广大公众，销量颇佳，例如《内在革命——生命、自由和对真正幸福的追求》（Inner Revolution: Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Real Happiness，1998年）。

As the 1970s counterculture embraced Eastern religious ideas, and Buddhism in particular, Dr. Thurman pushed for a historically grounded, intellectually rigorous understanding of the tradition.

随着20世纪70年代的反文化运动开始接受东方宗教思想，尤其是佛教，瑟曼致力于推动人们对这一传统建立基于历史且严谨的学术认知。

“His translations went to the depths of the sophistication of the Tibetan exploration of consciousness,” David Kittay, a former student of Dr. Thurman’s at Columbia who now teaches religion there, said in an interview. “Yet he could explain it so anyone could get it.”

“他的翻译深入探究了藏传佛教在探索意识方面的那种复杂与精妙，”瑟曼博士在哥伦比亚大学的昔日学生、现于该校教授宗教学的大卫·基泰在接受采访时说。“然而，他却能用所有人都能听懂的方式将其解释清楚。”

Tall, sturdily built and with a shock of reddish-blond hair, he brought an infectious energy to the many lectures and conferences he organized around Buddhism and the plight of Tibet under Chinese rule.

瑟曼身材高大魁梧，一头浓密的红金色头发。在组织关于佛教以及西藏在中国统治下困境的众多讲座和会议时，他总能带来一种极具感染力的活力。

People were often surprised by how sociable he was, given his years as a monk.

鉴于他当了多年的僧人，人们常常对他社交方面的活跃感到惊讶。

“I don’t think he considered those to be contradictions,” Rodger Kamenetz, an expert on Buddhist-Jewish relations and the author of “Seeing Into the Life of Things: Imagination and the Sacred Encounter” (2025), said in an interview. “He viewed meditation not as quietism, but as a release of energy, and he just had great energy.”

“我不认为他觉得二者之间存在矛盾，”佛教与犹太教关系专家、《洞悉万物的生命——想象力与神圣的相遇》（Seeing Into the Life of Things: Imagination and the Sacred Encounter，2025年）一书的作者罗杰·卡梅内茨在接受采访时说。“他将冥想视为一种能量的释放，而非清静无为，而他恰恰拥有巨大的能量。”

In 1972 he founded the American Institute of Buddhist Studies at Columbia; the organization translates and preserves classical Indian Buddhist texts.

1972年，瑟曼在哥伦比亚大学创立了美国佛教研究所；该组织致力于翻译和保存古印度佛教经典。

In 1987, at the Dalai Lama’s request, he and his wife, Nena, joined the actor Richard Gere and the composer Philip Glass in founding Tibet House U.S., a sort of cultural consulate in Manhattan for the Tibetan nation. Dr. Thurman later served for decades as its president.

1987年，应达赖喇嘛之邀，他与妻子内娜以及演员理查·基尔、作曲家菲利普·格拉斯共同创立了美国西藏之家，该机构位于曼哈顿，相当于藏民族的某种文化领事馆。瑟曼后来担任其总裁长达数十年。

He and his wife also operated a Buddhist retreat west of Woodstock, the Menla Retreat and Dewa Spa.

他和妻子还在伍德斯托克西部经营一家名为“门拉静修中心与德瓦水疗”的佛教静修所。

“My father was a magnificent, charismatic, passionate, curious, alive, vibrant human being,” Ms. Thurman said. “He never stopped investigating the world in all its facets. He was obsessed with the power of compassion.”

“我的父亲是一个非凡的人、他富于魅力、激情洋溢、求知若渴、生机勃勃且充满活力，”乌玛·瑟曼说。“他从未停止从各个层面去探索这个世界。他对慈悲的力量着迷不已。”

瑟曼博士与达赖喇嘛，摄于2011年。他曾师从这位藏传佛教精神领袖，并向达赖喇嘛讲授弗洛伊德心理学、核物理学及其他西方思想。

Robert Alexander Farrar Thurman was born on Aug. 3, 1941, in Manhattan. His parents — Beverly Thurman, a journalist, and Elizabeth Dean Farrar, an actress — hosted regular salons in their home; Robert once read lines alongside Laurence Olivier, one of their guests.

罗伯特·亚历山大·法拉尔·瑟曼于1941年8月3日出生在曼哈顿。他的父母是记者比佛利·瑟曼和演员伊丽莎白·迪恩·法拉尔，他们经常在家中举办沙龙；罗伯特曾与他们的座上宾之一劳伦斯·奥利弗一起朗读过台词。

He enrolled in boarding school at Phillips Exeter Academy, in New Hampshire. He was expelled in 1958 — weeks from graduation, having already been accepted at Harvard — after leaving without permission to join Fidel Castro and his guerrilla army in Cuba. He was stopped in Florida and worked for a brief time in Mexico.

他就读于新罕布什尔州的寄宿学校菲利普斯埃克塞特学院。1958年，在距离毕业仅剩几周、且已被哈佛大学录取的情况下，他未经允许擅自离开学校，打算去古巴加入菲德尔·卡斯特罗及其游击队，因此被开除。他在佛罗里达被拦下，随后在墨西哥工作了一小段时间。

In 1959, he married Christophe de Menil, an oil heiress. In 1961, while changing a flat tire, the tire iron slipped and destroyed his left eye, a freak accident that left him questioning his own mortality.

1959年，他与石油家族继承人克里斯托夫·德·梅尼尔结婚。1961年，在更换漏气的轮胎时，轮胎扳手意外滑落，弄瞎了他的左眼。这场离奇的事故让他开始对自身生命的脆弱产生思考。

He dropped out of Harvard to travel across Asia. His wife, uninterested in his wanderings, left him. He arrived in Turkey close to broke.

他从哈佛辍学，踏上了穿越亚洲的旅程。妻子对他的流浪生活不感兴趣，便离他而去。他抵达土耳其时几乎身无分文。

“I was already by about that time like St. Francis,” he told The New York Times Magazine in 1996. “I had an empty socket, long hair and a scraggly beard. I wore black baggy Afghani pants, a T-shirt with a white shawl thrown around me and leather sandals.”

“那个时候我已经有点像圣方济各了，”他在1996年接受《纽约时报杂志》采访时说。“我一只眼睛眼窝空空，一头长发，留着稀疏的胡须。我穿着宽松的黑色阿富汗式长裤，套着T恤，披着一条白色披肩，脚上穿着皮凉鞋。”

He continued on through Iran to India, where he got a job teaching English to young reincarnated Tibetan lamas in exile. He immediately took to their beliefs and culture — “I was in heaven, because the minute I met the Tibetans, I knew they had what I wanted,” he told The Times.

他继续穿越伊朗来到印度，在那里找到了一份工作，为流亡在外的年轻藏传佛教转世活佛教授英语。他立刻就被他们的信仰和文化深深吸引——“我就像在天堂一样，因为在我遇见藏人的那一刻，我就知道他们拥有我想要的东西，”他告诉《纽约时报》。

He returned home when his father died, in 1962 but continued his pursuit of Buddhist knowledge with Geshe Wangyal, a Buddhist lama in New Jersey. Adept at languages, he learned Tibetan in a matter of months and eventually spoke it without an accent.

1962年父亲去世后，他回到家乡，但他继续跟随新泽西州的佛教喇嘛格西旺杰学习佛教知识。由于拥有语言天赋，他在几个月内就学会了藏语，最终能说一口毫无口音的藏语。

He decided to become a monk and persuaded his teacher to accompany him to Dharamshala, India, the home in exile of the Dalai Lama.

他决定出家为僧，并说服他的老师陪同他前往印度达兰萨拉，即达赖喇嘛的流亡所在地。

Dr. Thurman and the Dalai Lama became fast friends: He studied under the Tibetan spiritual leader and, in turn, gave him lessons in Freudian psychology, nuclear physics and other Western ideas.

瑟曼和达赖喇嘛很快成为好友：他师从这位西藏精神领袖，同时，他也向达赖喇嘛讲授弗洛伊德心理学、核物理学和其他西方思想。

“He would say, ‘Forget about the teaching, you can go and talk to some old lama,’” Dr. Thurman told The San Francisco Examiner in 1997. “‘But now what I want to know is how does the bicameral American constitutional system work? What is a gene, how does it work?’”

“他会说，‘别管什么教义了，你可以去和那些老喇嘛聊，’”瑟曼博士在1997年告诉《旧金山考察家报》。“‘但我现在想知道的是，美国的两院制宪政体系是怎么运作的？基因是什么，它是怎么发挥作用的？’”

2017年，瑟曼和妻子内娜。1987年，他们与演员理查德·基尔和作曲家菲利普·格拉斯共同创立了“美国西藏之家”。

The Dalai Lama ordained Dr. Thurman but, when he returned to the United States, Geshe Wangyal persuaded him that he could better serve Buddhism by doffing his robes and becoming a professor.

达赖喇嘛为瑟曼主持了受戒仪式，但当他回到美国时，格西旺杰说服他，脱下僧袍成为教授能够更好地服务于佛教。

He returned to Harvard and, in 1972, received a doctorate in Indic studies — an interdisciplinary degree now known as Sanskrit and Indian studies. He taught at Amherst College from 1973 to 1988, when he transferred to Columbia. There, he held the first endowed chair in Buddhist studies in the West. He retired in 2019.

他重返哈佛，并于1972年获得了印度学博士学位——这是一个跨学科学位，如今被称为梵文与印度研究。他从1973年起在阿默斯特学院任教至1988年，之后转到哥伦比亚大学。在那里，他担任了西方第一个佛教研究讲席教授。他于2019年退休。

Soon after returning to Harvard, Dr. Thurman went to Millbrook, the estate in upstate New York where the psychiatrist Timothy Leary and his circle were experimenting with LSD; he was there in an attempt to get Dr. Leary to tone down the drug use.

回到哈佛后不久，瑟曼曾经前往米尔布鲁克，这是纽约州北部的一个庄园，精神病学家蒂莫西·利里和他的圈子正在那里进行LSD实验；瑟曼此行的目的是劝说利里节制使用药品。

In the kitchen, he met Nena von Schlebrügge, a model who was soon to be the ex-wife of Dr. Leary. They married in 1967.

在厨房里，他遇到了模特内娜·冯·施莱布吕格，她当时即将与利里离婚。瑟曼和她于1967年结婚。

She survives him along with their daughter Uma and three sons, Ganden, Dechen and Mipam; a daughter from his first marriage, Taya Thurman; seven grandchildren, including the actress Maya Hawke; and three great-grandchildren. Another grandchild, the artist Dash Snow, died in 2009.

他的遗属包括妻子和他们的女儿乌玛，以及三个儿子甘丹、德庆和米帕姆，以及他第一段婚姻的女儿塔亚·瑟曼、还有包括演员玛雅·霍克在内的七个孙辈，以及三个曾孙辈。他的另一个孙辈，艺术家达什·斯诺已于2009年去世。

Across his many lectures, translations and books, Dr. Thurman tried to communicate a few key ideas about Buddhism, above all that it was not just a religion in a narrow sense, but a system of ethical education.

在他众多的讲座、翻译和著作中，瑟曼试图传达关于佛教的几个核心理念，最重要的是，佛教不仅仅是狭义上的宗教，而是一种伦理教育体系。

“Buddhism is not primarily religious,” he told The Believer magazine in 2020. “It deteriorates if someone believes they will get to nirvana if they just worship the Buddha. But the Buddha was saying, ‘Worshipping me is not going to get you there; you have to do something.’”

“佛教主要并不是宗教性的，”他在2020年告诉《信徒》杂志。“如果有人相信只要供奉佛陀就能达到涅槃，那便是对佛教的曲解。但佛陀其实是在说，‘供奉我并不能让你证得涅槃；你必须付诸行动。’”

When the Chinese standup comedian Chizi decided this year to go on tour for the first time since he got into trouble with his government three years ago, he was certain about just one thing: Some people would come to the shows — in Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore — to see a “rebel comedian.”

今年决定举办自三年前招惹政府以来的首次巡演时，中国脱口秀演员池子能确定的只有一件事：在日本、台湾、马来西亚和新加坡的演出，有些人是为看一位“反贼喜剧演员”而来。

He knew he could play up that image, pulling jokes from a folder on his phone labeled “Cannot Say” — material sure to enrage Chinese censors. He had done exactly that during a tour in Canada and the United States three years earlier, when he mocked the country’s censorship and the prejudices faced by ethnic minorities.

他知道自己可以利用这个形象，从手机上一个标着“不能讲”的文件夹里翻出一些笑话——这些段子肯定会激怒中国的审查者。三年前他在加拿大和美国的巡演中就是这么做的，当时他嘲讽了国家的审查制度以及少数民族面临的偏见。

Or he could make the show more personal, introducing himself to a new audience of Mandarin Chinese speakers in other parts of Asia. Steering away from the obviously political was a choice he knew would not please members of the Chinese diaspora who are critical of the current government.

或者，他可以让演出更个人化，向亚洲其他地区的普通话观众介绍自己。他知道避开明显的政治内容会让那些批评现政府的海外华人不满意。

His North America tour in 2023 had cost him. All references to him were deleted from the Chinese internet, he became toxic in his industry and he was unable to practice his craft in China, losing his core audience and his income. Now doing shows in total freedom, he finds himself resisting a different sort of constraint: the expectation that he will perform the role of rebel.

2023年的北美巡演让他付出了代价。中国互联网上所有关于他的内容都被删除，业内人人对他避之不及，他无法在中国从事自己的工作，失去了核心观众和收入。然而，如今在完全自由的环境中表演，他却发现自己在抵抗另一种束缚：人们期望他扮演“反贼”的角色。

It is an expectation that offends his sense of artistic integrity. He is not an ideologue. He wants to tell stories and let people think for themselves rather than imposing a conclusion. Doing anything else, he said, would be the mirror image of the Chinese propaganda he grew up with.

这种期望是对他的艺术操守的侵犯。他不是一个意识形态分子。他想讲故事，让人们自己思考，而不是强加结论。他说，否则就只是把他从小耳濡目染的中国宣传换个说法而已。

He just wants to be a comedian. For a Chinese performer, that turns out to be a radical enough ambition.

他只想做一个喜剧演员。对于一名中国表演者来说，这原来已经是一个足够激进的抱负。

Laughter as an Outlet

笑作为出口

在东京的演出前，池子在后台把塑料水瓶当成麦克风练习段子。

Chizi, a nickname that means “pond,” was born in 1995 in central Henan Province. His real name is Wang Yuechi. The given name Yuechi comes from a Chinese idiom: Never go beyond prescribed limits. His parents chose it hoping he would do the opposite.

池子1995年出生于河南中部，本名王越池。“越池”这个名字来自一个中文成语：不越雷池。父母给他取这个名字，希望他做相反的事。

His family moved to Beijing when he was 8 years old, hoping to provide better schools and opportunities for their son. He was the kind of restless, funny kid who made his classmates laugh and frequently got into trouble for it.

八岁时，他全家搬到北京，希望为他提供更好的学校和机会。他是那种坐不住、爱逗乐的孩子，常惹同学笑，也因此经常惹麻烦。

As a teenager, he watched American standup online — George Carlin, Dave Chappelle, Chris Rock — and thought China could never produce anything like it. “It’s too sharp, too dangerous,” he said. But in 2015, he came across an advertisement for a small outfit holding open-mic standup nights. For his first performance, he scribbled jokes on bits of paper. He was a natural.

青少年时期，他在网上观看美国脱口秀——乔治·卡林、戴夫·夏佩尔、克里斯·洛克——并认为中国永远无法产生类似的东西。“太尖锐、太危险了，”他说。但2015年，他看到一则小型开放麦脱口秀活动的广告。第一次表演时，他在纸片上潦草写下笑话。他天生适合干这个。

In its early years in China, standup comedy was performed exclusively in small bars with little interference. Comics even made fun of the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, Chizi told me. In the late 2010s, as the government tightened controls over personal expression — banning male earrings, tattoos and flamboyant hair colors on TV — standup comedy, somewhat paradoxically, became one of the most popular forms of entertainment.

在中国早期，脱口秀只在小酒吧演出，几乎不受干扰。池子告诉我，喜剧演员甚至拿中国领导人习近平开玩笑。在2010年代后期，随着政府加强对个人表达的控制——禁止男艺人在电视上戴耳环、纹身和夸张发色，脱口秀却有些矛盾地成为最受欢迎的娱乐形式之一。

“The more pressure there is, the more people need laughter as an outlet,” Chizi said.

“越高压越需要笑作为出口，”池子说。

In 2017, the same year his mother died from brain cancer, Chizi became a regular on “Roast,” a new television show featuring comics that attracted nearly 1.4 billion views during its first season.

2017年——他母亲因脑癌去世的那一年，池子成为新电视节目《吐槽大会》的常规演员，该节目第一季获得了近14亿观看量。

But as standup gained popularity, government oversight arrived with it. Writers had to submit their material to censors and were not allowed to go off script. Taboo topics included national leaders, homosexuality, gambling, poverty and the pandemic.

但随着脱口秀的流行，政府监管也随之而来。作者必须向审查者提交素材，不能即兴发挥。禁忌话题包括国家领导人、同性恋、赌博、贫困和疫情。

池子建了一个“不能讲”的文件夹；里面都是他写下但永远无法在中国表演的笑话。

Chizi responded by writing down everything he wasn’t allowed to say. Over time, this became his “Cannot Say” folder: jokes he had written but could never perform in China.

池子的回应是写下所有他不被允许说的内容。随着时间推移，这成了他的“不能讲”文件夹：他写下但永远无法在中国表演的笑话。

But he found other ways to publicly defy the system. He mailed his social media followers physical copies of the Chinese Constitution with the clause protecting freedom of speech highlighted. When regulators issued an official document labeling his dreadlocks “strange,” he daringly posted a screenshot on Weibo, a popular social media platform, and wore the most ridiculous hats he could find at subsequent shows, turning the censorship itself into the joke.

但他找到了其他公开反抗体制的方式。他给社交媒体粉丝邮寄中国宪法的实体副本，并在保护言论自由的条款上做了高亮。当监管机构发布官方文件将他的脏辫标记为“奇装异服”时，他大胆地在微博上发布截图，并在随后的演出中戴上他能找到的最荒谬的帽子，把审查本身变成了笑话。

At 23, at the height of his fame, Chizi quit “Roast.” The work, he said, had grown too commercial for his tastes, and the studio that had signed him wanted control of his social media account, calling the things he said “too dangerous.”

23岁时，池子在名气最盛时退出了《吐槽大会》。他说，这份工作变得太商业化，而签他的工作室想要控制他的社交媒体账号，认为他说的话“太危险”。

Then came the North America tour and the ban. He returned to China, keeping a low profile, but, unable to perform, he left at the end of 2024 in self-imposed exile.

随后是北美巡演和禁令。他回到中国，保持低调，但由于无法表演，他在2024年底选择自我放逐。

The industry he left behind has been facing an existential crisis as censorship has intensified. In mid-2023, Beijing fined Chizi’s former employer around $2 million for a joke that compared China’s military to stray dogs. A few months ago, a female standup comedian joked on Weibo that she felt fortunate not to have a husband and children she would have to cook for while she was sick with a fever. Her account was suspended for “causing anxiety about marriage and childbirth” and for “provoking gender antagonism.”

他离开的行业正因审查加剧面临生存危机。2023年年中，北京对池子的前雇主处以1400万元罚款，原因是其中一个笑话将中国军队比作流浪狗。几个月前，一位女脱口秀演员在微博上开玩笑说，她生病发烧时幸好没有丈夫和孩子需要她做饭。她的账号因“引发婚姻生育焦虑”和“挑起性别对立”被封。

A Nervous Return

紧张的回归

购票观众在东京新宿文化会馆外排队等待池子的首场演出。现场大约来了1000人。一些观众表示，他们是来听那些在中国无法表达的心声的。

For the past year and a half, Chizi has been traveling the world and not doing much, which his savings make possible, he said. He’s learning to meditate and cook — his favorite dish is eggs and tomatoes — and tracks what is and isn’t allowed on Chinese social media. He said he was still enraged by injustice back home. Now he posts photos of clouds on Instagram.

过去一年半，池子一直在环游世界，没做什么正事，他说他的积蓄允许他这么做。他在学习冥想和做饭（他最喜欢西红柿炒蛋），并关注中国社交媒体上什么被允许、什么不被允许。他说，他仍然对国内的不公感到愤怒。现在他在Instagram上发云的照片。

His return to the stage began with a plan to do only one show, in Taiwan. Then word spread. Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore were added to the tour. To his surprise, all but one show sold out. (He now has shows planned for North America and Australia.)

他这次重返舞台始于一个在台湾演出一场的计划。后来消息传开。东京、吉隆坡和新加坡被加入巡演。令他惊讶的是，除了一个场地外，所有演出都售罄。（他现在计划在北美和澳大利亚举办演出。）

Half an hour before his first show, in front of 1,000 people, in Tokyo in April, he was still rewriting jokes. He had not tested his material at an open mic. Rather, he practiced in front of an imaginary audience, holding a plastic bottle as a microphone. He had no idea whether his jokes would land.

4月在东京，即将面对1000名观众进行首场演出前半小时，他还在改段子。他没有在开放麦测试过素材，而是对着想象中的观众练习，拿塑料瓶当麦克风。他不知道自己的笑话是否会受欢迎。

The people who stood in line outside the theater had come to hear a rebel. “If he’s not saying things that can’t be said, why would I come?” said Jason Li, a 39-year-old I.T. worker who moved to Japan from China in 2022. “Otherwise, I might as well watch Chinese television.” Most of the people I interviewed, like Mr. Li, were Chinese immigrants who recently moved to Japan, part of a wave leaving China after the pandemic. Backstage, Chizi stretched, squatted and jumped to calm his nerves.

在剧院外排队的人是来听“反贼”的。“如果他不说那些不能说的东西，我为什么要来？”39岁的IT从业者杰森·李说，他2022年从中国移居日本。“不然我还不如看中国电视。”我采访的大多数人都是李先生这样疫情后离开中国的移民，刚搬到日本不久。在后台，池子用拉伸、下蹲、跳跃来平复紧张。

Wide-shouldered and lanky, Chizi makes a dramatic impression. A few days before the show, he shaved his famous dreadlocks. But when he walked onstage in an oversize white T-shirt, a pair of black pants, and white and red Nike sneakers, the nerves were still visible. He forgot a few lines. He paused awkwardly a couple of times. Later, on social media, he would offer an apology for what he considered his poor performance. “I could do better,” he wrote. The audience didn’t seem to mind. The people chuckled, laughed and applauded.

肩宽瘦高的池子有种戏剧化的形象。演出前几天，他剃掉了著名的脏辫。但当他穿着超大白色T恤、黑色裤子和白红相间的Nike球鞋走上舞台时，紧张依然可见。他忘了几句台词，有几次尴尬地停顿。后来，他在社交媒体上为他认为的糟糕表现道歉。“我可以做得更好，”他写道。观众似乎并不在意。人们轻笑、大笑并鼓掌。

He riffed mostly about his childhood — teachers who humiliated him for disrupting class, a mother who loved and hit him, being an outlier in a country that didn’t tolerate curiosity and individuality. The material was personal, even tender at moments. Political references were sprinkled throughout, but they were subtle.

他主要即兴谈论童年——羞辱他扰乱课堂的老师、爱他也打他的母亲、在一个不容忍好奇心和个性的国家里做一个异类。素材很个人化，甚至有些时刻很温柔。政治指涉贯穿其中，但都很含蓄。

Then, near the end of the set, he referred to Mr. Xi, China’s paramount leader, obliquely as “the husband of Peng Liyuan,” the folk singer who was once far more famous than her husband. Several women in front of me who had been laughing and clapping went suddenly still. Talking about Mr. Xi in an unfavorable fashion is the ultimate taboo in China. Reducing him to his domestic relationship in a public event was shocking.

然后，在演出接近尾声时，他间接地把中国最高领导人习近平称为“彭丽媛的丈夫”——那位曾比丈夫更出名的民歌歌手。我前排的几位女性原本一直在笑和鼓掌，突然安静下来。在中国，以负面的方式谈论习近平是终极禁忌。在公开场合把他简化为一种家庭成员关系是惊人的。

After the show, we sat down to talk. He chose his words carefully. When I relayed a friend’s criticism — similar to others’ online — that he seemed to have pulled his punches on Xi Jinping, he laughed. “It’s not meant to satisfy you,” he said. The choice he made onstage was deliberate.

演出结束后，我们坐下来聊天。他的措辞很谨慎。当我转述一位朋友的批评——类似网上其他人的看法——说他在习近平的问题上有所保留时，他笑了。“就是为了让你不满足，”他说。他在台上的选择是故意的。

Free speech is a tool, he told me. The temptation is to use it simply because you can. “It’s exhilarating,” he said. But that, he added, can be a trap, and chasing approval is its own form of corruption, as dangerous to comedy as censorship itself.

他告诉我，言论自由是一种工具。诱惑在于，仅仅因为你可以，你就会去用它。“这很令人兴奋，”他说。但他补充说，这可能是个陷阱，追逐认可本身就是一种腐化，对喜剧的危险程度不亚于审查本身。

“It’s easy to be a rebel,” he said. “It’s much harder to be a good comedian.”

“当反贼很简单，”他说。“当好的喜剧演员不容易。”

An Artful Detour

绕弯的魅力

The next morning, we met for breakfast and talked again about why he didn’t make more political jokes the night before. Geography played a role, he admitted. Standup depends on shared context. Audiences in the tour’s cities do not always share the same references, he said, but they would understand childhood, family and school.

第二天早上，我们一起吃早餐，再次谈论他前一晚为什么没有讲更多政治笑话。他承认，地理位置起了作用。脱口秀依赖共享语境。他说，巡演城市里的观众并不总是都能理解某个典故，但他们都能理解童年、家庭和学校。

He also thought his reference to Mr. Xi merely as a husband was an artful detour, more sophisticated than calling out his name.

他还认为，他仅仅把习近平称为丈夫的指涉是一种巧妙的绕弯，比直接点名更精妙。

Since his childhood, he always liked a detour. If he needed to get from A to B, he said, “I’d always climb to the highest spot, jump down, hop over a few railings, spin around and only then get where I was going.”

他从小就喜欢“绕弯”。他说，如果他需要从A到B，“我总是先爬到最高的地方，跳下来，翻过几个栏杆，转几圈，然后才到达目的地。”

“It’s simply more fun,” he said.

“这样更好玩，”他说。

He liked the comedian Trevor Noah, whose stories about his mother and his South African childhood reveal themselves as a portrait of a society. As he was working on the material for the tour, he discovered that his own childhood stories, too, kept emerging with sharp edges, textured with pain, anger and absurdity. He hoped the audience would feel that, too.

他喜欢喜剧演员特雷弗·诺亚，他的关于母亲和南非童年的故事最终勾勒出一幅社会的画像。在为这次巡演准备素材时，他发现自己的童年故事也不断带着尖锐的棱角浮现出来，充满痛苦、愤怒和荒诞。他希望观众也能感受到这一点。

I asked Chizi whether he considered himself an exile. “Absolutely,” he said. He knew he could not return to China if he didn’t censor himself.

我问池子是否认为自己是流亡者。“绝对是，”他说。他知道如果不自我审查，他就无法回到中国。

After the show in Tokyo, I talked to a member of the audience, Ms. Zhou, a 59-year-old freelance translator who left China in late 2023, around the time Chizi was barred. She told me that she laughed harder than she had in years at the performance, but she also felt something heavier beneath it.

东京演出结束后，我和一位姓周的女性观众交谈。她59岁，是一名自由职业译者，2023年底离开中国，差不多就是池子被禁的时候。她告诉我，她很多年没有笑得这么厉害了，但也感受到更沉重的东西。

“Freedom feels so good,” she blurted out as she walked out the theater. Then she caught herself. That this kind of enjoyment could happen only outside China, she said, left her fighting back tears.

“自由感觉太好了，”她走出剧院时脱口而出。然后她顿住了。这种享受只能在中国之外发生，她强忍着眼泪说。

President Trump on Wednesday issued a fiery defense of his deal with Iran, lashing out at critics who have said the agreement achieves even less than the one President Barack Obama negotiated, and threatening to bomb Iran again if it doesn’t adhere to the agreement.

特朗普总统周三为他与伊朗达成的协议做了激烈的辩护，抨击那些声称该协议成果甚至不如奥巴马总统谈判达成协议的批评者。他还威胁称，如果伊朗不遵守该协议，将再次对其进行轰炸。

Appearing at the Group of 7 summit of global leaders in Évian-les-Bains, France, Mr. Trump denied that the United States was, in effect, paying Iran to agree to the recently negotiated peace deal. And in an expletive-laden rant, he proclaimed that his deal was better than the one Mr. Obama signed with Tehran in 2015.

在法国埃维昂莱班举行的七国集团全球领导人峰会上，特朗普否认美国实际上是在付钱给伊朗，换取伊朗同意最近谈判达成的和平协议。在一通夹杂粗口的怒斥中，他宣称他的协议比奥巴马2015年与德黑兰签署的协议更好。

“And you know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama, and they said, ‘He’s a stupid son of a bitch,’” Mr. Trump said.

“你们知道伊朗人做了什么吗？他们嘲笑奥巴马，他们说，‘他是个愚货、浑蛋，’”特朗普说。

A spokeswoman for Mr. Obama said he would not be commenting on Wednesday, but referred to his remarks from an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America” over the weekend. In it, he said that he doubted that the new deal would be “significantly different or a significant improvement” from the one his administration negotiated. He said that it was a reminder that the United States cannot just “bully our way or bomb our way to solutions.”

奥巴马的一位发言人表示，奥巴马不会在周三发表评论，但提到了奥巴马周末接受ABC《早安美国》节目采访时的讲话。在采访中，奥巴马表示，他怀疑新协议与他的政府通过谈判所达成的协议相比，可能未有“显著不同或重大改进”。他说，这提醒人们，美国不能只是依靠“霸凌或轰炸来解决问题”。

Mr. Trump’s remarks came as a senior U.S. official disclosed what the official said was the full text of the deal. The official read it aloud on a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House.

特朗普发表上述言论之际，一名美国高级官员披露了该官员称为协议全文的内容。周三，该官员在与记者的电话会议中宣读了该文本，根据白宫制定的基本规则，他要求匿名发言。

The deal would, among other things, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, outline a $300 billon plan for Iran’s reconstruction and at least temporarily lift restrictions on the country’s oil exports, according to the official. But it would push talks about Iran’s nuclear program — the central reason given for the U.S.-Israeli attacks that began in February — into a 60-day negotiation period.

该官员透露，该协议内容包括重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，制定一项3000亿美元的伊朗重建计划，并至少暂时取消对伊朗石油出口的限制。但该协议将把关于伊朗核计划的谈判推入为期60天的谈判期，核问题是始于2月的美以袭击的核心理由。

Mr. Trump had denied reports that the deal included U.S. investment in the reconstruction fund or any immediate sanctions relief, two of the points that have drawn the most attention. But the $300 billion fund it outlines could provide Iran with much more money than the deal Mr. Obama negotiated.

特朗普曾否认该协议将包括美国对重建基金的投资或立即解除制裁的报道，这两点备受关注。但该协议所述的3000亿美元基金可能为伊朗提供的资金远超奥巴马谈判达成的协议。

The deal says the United States will work with regional partners to “develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least” $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. The fund will go into effect once a final deal is reached within 60 days, the agreement states.

该协议称，美国将与地区合作伙伴共同努力，“制定一项明确的、双方同意的计划，至少提供”3000亿美元用于伊朗的重建和经济发展。协议规定，一旦在60天内达成最终协议，该基金将生效。

Mr. Trump left open the possibility that Persian Gulf states could provide the money for the fund. Mr. Trump has railed against Mr. Obama for providing $1.7 billion in cash to Iran after the 2015 nuclear agreement was signed.

特朗普对波斯湾国家可能为该基金提供资金的可能性持开放态度。特朗普曾猛烈抨击奥巴马在2015年核协议签署后向伊朗提供了17亿美元现金。

But he said on Wednesday that the U.S. military had so badly damaged Iran during the war that the country needed help.

但他周三表示，美国军队在战争期间对伊朗造成了严重破坏，以至于伊朗需要帮助。

“Unlike Barack Hussein Obama, who sent Iran pallets of cash, any relief they receive under this deal, they’ll have to get based on merit — and it won’t be from us,” he said. “We don’t have to give them anything. But some people may want to invest.”

“不像贝拉克·侯赛因·奥巴马那样用托盘给伊朗送去一盘一盘的现金，根据这项协议，他们要想获得救济，就必须凭着自己的表现来争取——而且援助不是我们来给，”他说。“我们不需要给他们任何东西。但是有些人可能愿意投资。”

A diplomat said that work on the fund was already underway.

一名外交官表示，该基金的筹备工作已经开始。

Commitments amounting to half of the $300 billion figure have already been made, including from companies in the United States, the Middle East, Asia, South America and Africa, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

这名要求匿名以讨论敏感谈判的外交官表示，目前已获得相当于3000亿美元半数金额的承诺，来自美国、中东、亚洲、南美和非洲的公司。

The fund would be a conduit for private investment, not a reconstruction or reparations program, the diplomat said. Details about the funding pledges were initially reported by Reuters.

该外交官表示，该基金将作为私人投资渠道，而非重建或赔偿计划。有关资金承诺的细节最初由路透社报道。

Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have already electronically signed a framework agreement on the deal, along with the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led that country’s negotiating team, a senior U.S. official said. American and Iranian leaders are expected to formally sign the agreement in Switzerland.

一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普和副总统万斯已经以电子方式签署了关于该协议的框架协议，伊朗议会议长、领导该国谈判团队的穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫也是如此。预计美伊领导人将在瑞士正式签署该协议。

Once the agreement is formally signed, the United States will issue waivers allowing Iran to export its crude oil. Critics have said that relief for the Iranian oil industry rewards Tehran merely for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping route that was open before Iran effectively closed it at the start of the war.

一旦协议正式签署，美国将发布豁免，允许伊朗出口其原油。批评人士指出，对伊朗石油工业的制裁豁免无非是对德黑兰重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的奖励，这条关键的石油运输航线在战争开始时被伊朗实际封锁，此前一直是开放畅通的。

In an effort to resolve the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be used to build at least 10 bombs, experts say, the deal requires Iran to weaken it by “down-blending” it — or effectively diluting it — on site, under the supervision of international atomic inspectors. It does not require Iran to give up that material and ship it out of the country.

为解决伊朗高浓缩铀库存的处置问题——专家称，这些铀可用于制造至少10枚核弹——该协议要求伊朗在国际原子能检查员的监督下在现场通过“向下混合”（实质上的稀释）来降低其浓度。协议并未要求伊朗放弃该物质并将其运出境外。

The agreement says the United States will also lift sanctions on Iran “in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal” that the two sides would negotiate within 60 days. Relief from crushing economic sanctions may be the ultimate lever that can persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal brokered by Mr. Obama traded sanctions relief for strict caps on Tehran’s nuclear activity.

协议称，作为双方将在60天谈判中达成的“最终协议的一部分”，美国还将“按照商定的时间表”解除对伊朗的制裁。解除毁灭性的经济制裁可能是说服伊朗放弃其核计划的最终杠杆。奥巴马促成的2015年伊朗核协议正是以解除制裁换取对德黑兰核活动的严格限制。

The new deal calls on Iran to allow commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely and “with no charge for 60 days only.” After that, it indicates, Iran and Oman will work out a deal to administer ship traffic in the strait in consultation with other Gulf nations. Mr. Trump has said the passageway must be “permanently toll-free.” But Iran has said it plans to charge “fees” in exchange for unspecified “services” it provides there.

新协议要求伊朗允许商船安全通过霍尔木兹海峡，并且“仅在60天内不收通行费”。协议表明，在此之后，伊朗和阿曼将与其他海湾国家协商，就海峡船舶交通的管理达成协议。特朗普曾表示，该通道必须“永久免收通行费”。但伊朗表示，计划收取“费用”，以换取该国在那里提供的未具体说明的“服务”。

The deal also seeks to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, by committing the United States, Iran and their allies to immediately stopping military operations on “all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Neither Israel nor Hezbollah have signed on to the deal, and both have indicated that they will not be bound by it.

该协议还试图结束以色列与黎巴嫩境内伊朗支持的民兵组织真主党之间的战争，承诺美国、伊朗及其盟友立即停止在“包括黎巴嫩在内的所有战线”的军事行动。以色列和真主党都未签署该协议，且双方均已表示不会受其约束。

Israel has said it has no plans to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon, and it reported more attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli soldiers there on Wednesday. The group has fired rockets and drones into Israel.

以色列表示不打算从黎巴嫩南部撤军，并报告称周三真主党对驻扎在那里的以色列士兵发动了更多袭击。该组织曾向以色列境内发射火箭弹和无人机。

Some Republicans expressed concerns about the emerging details of the deal. Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, said the 14 points of the agreement made public on Wednesday were “not sufficient for me to say it’s a good deal.”

一些共和党人对逐渐浮出水面的协议细节表示担忧。北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯表示，周三公布的协议中的14点内容“不足以让我说这是一项好协议”。

Mr. Tillis said he and other senators needed to receive “a detailed, secure briefing” from Trump administration officials. “It would be irresponsible of any member to just accept at face value what we know about it,” he said.

蒂利斯表示，他和其他参议员需要听取特朗普政府官员“详细、安全的简报”。“任何议员如果仅仅凭表面信息就接受我们目前所了解的内容，那将是不负责任的，”他说。

But Mr. Trump said of the preliminary agreement: “It’s very strong. Most people seem to be very happy.” He added, referring to a surge in stocks in recent days, “Who’s really happy is the market.”

但特朗普在谈到这份初步协议时表示：“它很强。大多数人好像都很高兴。”在提到最近几天股市飙升时，他还说：“真正高兴的是市场。”

Even so, he warned that he would order more attacks if he decided that Tehran was violating the terms.

尽管如此，他警告说，如果他认定德黑兰违反了条款，他将下令发动更多袭击。

“If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head,” he said while speaking to reporters alongside President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt.

“如果我不满意，如果他们不守规矩，我们就直接回去，把炸弹直接砸在他们脑袋正中间，”他在与埃及总统阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西共同接受记者采访时说。