President Trump’s signature will appear on U.S. dollars later this year, the Treasury Department said on Thursday. The decision to have Mr. Trump’s John Hancock on America’s paper currency represented an unprecedented change, one that the department said was being made in honor of the United States’ 250th anniversary.

美国财政部周四宣布，特朗普总统的签名将于今年晚些时候出现在美元纸币上。让特朗普的亲笔签名登上美国纸币的决定代表着前所未有的变化，财政部称此举旨在纪念美国建国250周年。

As a result, Mr. Trump is set to become the first sitting U.S. president to have his signature on the greenback. His name will appear alongside that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. As a result, the U.S. treasurer, whose name has been on the currency for more than a century, will not appear on the currency.

由此，特朗普将成为首位在任期内将签名印在美钞上的美国总统。他的签名将与财政部长斯科特·贝森特并列。这也意味着，一个多世纪以来出现在纸币上的合众国司库签名将从此消失。

“There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S. dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the semiquincentennial,” Mr. Bessent said in a statement.

贝森特在一份声明中说：“在美元纸币上印上他的名字，是纪念我们伟大国家和唐纳德·J·特朗普总统历史性成就的最有力方式，在建国250周年之际发行此版纸币再合适不过。”

The addition of Mr. Trump’s signature to dollars is the latest example of the president emblazoning national institutions with his personal brand as he looks to permanently imprint his legacy in American society.

将特朗普签名加印到美元上是总统将国家机构打上其个人品牌烙印的最新例证，他正试图在美国社会永久留下自己的政治遗产。

Since retaking the White House last year, Mr. Trump has pushed for the minting of a one-dollar coin featuring his face along with the creation of a commemorative, 24-karat gold coin bearing Mr. Trump’s image. Mr. Trump also had his name added to the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington and his administration has pushed for Washington’s Dulles Airport to be renamed after him.

自去年重掌白宫以来，特朗普已推动铸造印有其肖像的一美元硬币，以及带有他形象的纪念性24K金币。特朗普还将其名字加在了华盛顿的约翰·F·肯尼迪表演艺术中心上，其政府也正推动将华盛顿杜勒斯机场改成他的名字。

The history of who gets to sign the money dates to 1861, when President Abraham Lincoln signed a bill allowing the Treasury secretary to delegate the treasurer of the United States to sign Treasury notes and bonds. According to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, 1914 was the first year that the Treasury secretary and the treasurer started signing the currency together.

谁可以把名字印在钞票上的问题可追溯至1861年，当时亚伯拉罕·林肯总统签署了一项法案，允许财政部长委托财政部司库签署票据和债券。根据雕刻印刷局记录，1914年是财政部长和司库开始共同签署货币的第一年。

During the Biden administration, there was a delay in adding Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen’s signature to the money because President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was slow to appoint a new treasurer.

在拜登执政期间，由于小约瑟夫·R·拜登总统迟迟未能任命司库，财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦的签名加印货币事宜也被推迟。

It is not clear if Mr. Trump’s signature will appear on all currency notes. The Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment.

目前尚不清楚特朗普的签名是否会出现在所有面额的纸币上。财政部没有回应置评请求。

Brandon Beach, Mr. Trump’s treasurer, expressed support for the president’s signature replacing his on the greenback.

特朗普任命的司库布兰登·比奇对总统的签名取代自己的签名印在美钞上表示支持。

“The president’s mark on history as the architect of America’s Golden Age economic revival is undeniable,” Mr. Beach said in a statement. “Printing his signature on the American currency is not only appropriate, but also well deserved.”

比奇在一份声明中表示：“总统作为美国‘黄金时代’经济复兴的设计师，其历史印记不可否认。将他的签名印在美国货币上不仅恰当，而且实至名归。”

European allies are increasingly concerned that Russia is preparing to deliver advanced drones to Iran for use in the war with the United States and Israel.

欧洲盟友日益担心，俄罗斯正准备向伊朗提供先进无人机，用于与美国和以色列的战争。

Russia and Iran grew closer during Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine. The Russians have used Iranian drones extensively in Ukraine, and the two countries have cooperated in dodging Western sanctions to sell oil abroad.

在俄罗斯持续入侵乌克兰期间，俄伊关系不断加深。俄军在乌克兰大量使用了伊朗制造的无人机，两国还合作规避西方制裁，向海外销售石油。

After the United States and Israel attacked Iran several weeks ago, Russia began passing satellite and other intelligence to Iran about American bases and other potential targets in the region, according to U.S. officials.

据美国官员称，在数周前美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，俄罗斯开始向伊朗提供有关美国在该地区军事基地及其他潜在打击目标的卫星情报及其他情报。

Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said Ukrainian intelligence had discovered that Russia had supplied Iran with drones and intelligence used in attacks against U.S. military facilities and neighboring countries in the Middle East during this war. In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on March 15, Mr. Zelensky said Moscow had transferred drones produced under Iranian licenses.

本月早些时候，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰情报机构发现，在此次战争中，俄罗斯向伊朗提供了用于袭击美国军事设施和中东邻国的无人机和情报。泽连斯基在3月15日接受CNN主持人法里德·扎卡里亚采访时表示，俄罗斯已移交了由伊朗授权生产的无人机。

A report in The Financial Times on Thursday seemed to support those statements, saying that Russia was “close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran,” according to Western intelligence reports.

《金融时报》周四的一篇报道似乎印证了这些说法，称根据西方情报报告，俄罗斯“接近完成分阶段向伊朗运送无人机、药品和食品的计划”。

Asked in Brussels about the reports on Thursday, Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, would not directly confirm if Russia is sending combat drones to Iran, saying that was a matter of intelligence “so we keep that secret.” But, Mr. Rutte said, officials have long noted “a close connection” between Iran, Russia, North Korea and China.

周四在布鲁塞尔被问及相关报道时，北约秘书长吕特未直接证实俄罗斯是否向伊朗提供作战无人机，称这属于情报事项，“我们对此予以保密”。但他表示，官员们长期以来注意到伊朗、俄罗斯、朝鲜与中国之间存在“密切联系”。

“So it tells you something when these reports come out that Russia is sharing so much, also with Iran,” he said. “So let’s not be naïve about it.”

他说：“这些报告一出来，本身就说明了问题——俄罗斯分享了如此多的东西，也包括跟伊朗分享。所以我们对此不要天真。”

In a social media post on Thursday, the British defense minister, John Healy, said “Russia and Iran have been working together — sharing tactics, training and tech.”

英国国防大臣约翰·希利周四在社交媒体上发帖称：“俄罗斯和伊朗一直在合作——共享战术、训练和技术。”

Two senior European officials, speaking anonymously given the diplomatic sensitivity of the topic, said their intelligence agencies believed that Russia was preparing to deliver drones to Iran for use in the war with the United States and Israel. They offered no details about prospective shipments or timing.

两位因话题的外交敏感性而要求不具名的欧洲高级官员表示，他们的情报机构认为，俄罗斯正准备向伊朗提供无人机，用于与美以的战争。但他们未提供计划中的运输细节或时间安排。

A third European official was not as definitive, saying there were “strong indications” that the Russians and Iranians had made such a deal. But that official did not know whether any drones had been delivered, or were in the process of being delivered.

第三名欧洲官员则没有那么确定，仅表示有“强烈迹象”表明俄伊双方已达成相关协议，但该官员并不清楚是否已有无人机交付，或正在交付过程中。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday appeared to downplay the possibility. When asked for his assessment of Moscow’s support for Iran in the war, he said: “I think Russia’s primarily concentrating on the war they have going on right now. Beyond that, I don’t have anything to add right now.”

美国国务卿鲁比奥周四似乎淡化了这种可能性。在被问及莫斯科在这场战争中对伊朗的支持时，他表示：“我认为俄罗斯目前主要专注于自己正在进行的战争。除此之外，我暂时没有更多可补充的。”

Iran’s arms factories, for both drones and ballistic missiles, have been prime targets for the huge U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign since the war began nearly a month ago. So presumably any Russian drones would help fill the gap.

自近一个月前战争爆发以来，伊朗的无人机和弹道导弹工厂一直是美以大规模轰炸行动的重点打击目标。因此，任何来自俄罗斯的无人机都可能会用来填补这一缺口。

Dmitry S. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, on Thursday denied that Russia was delivering drones and other arms to Iran for use in this war, telling reporters it was “false information.”

克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周四否认俄罗斯正在向伊朗运送无人机和其他武器用于此次战争，并告诉记者这是“虚假信息”。

Mr. Peskov had also denied an earlier report this month in The Wall Street Journal that Russia had already supplied Iran with modernized components for its drones meant to improve communication, navigation and targeting.

佩斯科夫此前还否认了本月早些时候《华尔街日报》的一篇报道，该报道称俄罗斯向伊朗提供了无人机现代化部件，以改善其通信、导航和目标定位能力。

Russia has previously said it had transferred medical supplies and food to Iran overland through Azerbaijan and will continue to do so.

俄罗斯此前曾表示，已通过阿塞拜疆向伊朗陆路运送了医疗物资和食品，并将继续这样做。

Earlier this month, President Trump downplayed reports that Russia was providing Iran with intelligence to target American troops. “If you take a look at what’s happened to Iran in the last week, if they’re getting information, it’s not helping them much,” he told reporters.

本月早些时候，特朗普总统也淡化了有关俄罗斯向伊朗提供情报以协助其打击美军的报道。“如果你看看伊朗过去一周的情况，就算他们拿到了情报，看起来也没什么用，”他对记者表示。

Russian military support for Iran is an awkward issue for Mr. Trump, who has often sided with Russia over Ukraine and has been reluctant to put more pressure on Moscow.

俄罗斯对伊朗的军事支持对特朗普来说是一个棘手问题——他在乌克兰问题上多次站在俄罗斯一边，并且一直不愿对莫斯科施加更多压力。

Even more awkward, the Iran war has caused oil prices to spike, and to try to lower them, Mr. Trump recently lifted some economic sanctions on Russian oil. That infuriated Europeans and Mr. Zelensky, since it helps finance the Russian war machine.

更棘手的是，伊朗战争导致油价飙升，而为了压低油价，特朗普最近放松了对俄罗斯石油的部分经济制裁。此举激怒了欧洲各国和泽连斯基，因为这为俄罗斯的战争机器提供了资金支持。

And Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine.

而在莫斯科看来，对伊朗的援助某种程度上是对美国援助乌克兰的对等回应。

Russia’s help to Iran follows Tehran’s important military aid to the Russian army in Ukraine at one of its lowest points in September 2022, especially by providing hundreds of the Shahed-136 Iranian drones.

在俄罗斯向伊朗提供援助之前，伊朗曾在2022年9月俄军处于低谷时向其提供了重要的军事援助，特别是提供了数百架伊朗的“见证者-136”无人机。

Russia then built its own production facility for the drones in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, around 620 miles east of Moscow. While Russian specialists initially assembled drones from Iranian kits, the operation has scaled up dramatically.

此后，俄罗斯在距莫斯科约1000公里的鞑靼斯坦叶拉布加建立了自己的无人机生产基地。虽然俄罗斯专家最初是用伊朗的套件组装无人机，但如今该工厂的生产规模已大幅扩大。

In early 2023, the plant produced roughly 100 drones per month but now can produce thousands. The design has also evolved. Russian engineers have modified the original into a distinctively Russian product, featuring domestic airframes, warheads and navigation systems.

2023年初，该工厂每月产量约为100架无人机，现在月产量可达数千架。设计也发生了变化。俄罗斯工程师在原型基础上进行了改造，形成了具有明显俄罗斯特色的产品，采用本土机体、战斗部和导航系统。

Last July, Timur Shagivaleyev, the head of the special economic zone that houses the Yelabuga factory, described it on Russian state television as “the biggest and the most secretive strike drone factory in the world.”

去年7月，叶拉布加工厂所在经济特区的负责人帖木儿·沙吉瓦列耶夫在俄罗斯国家电视台称其为“世界上最大、最神秘的攻击无人机工厂”。

Stocks on Wall Street suffered their largest daily decline since the start of the war with Iran on Thursday, falling as oil prices rose sharply after President Trump raised the pressure on Iran to accept terms to end the war.

随着特朗普总统加大对伊朗施压，要求其接受结束战争的条件，油价大幅上涨，华尔街股市周四遭遇了自对伊朗开战以来最大单日跌幅。

“We’ll just keep blowing them away, unimpeded,” Mr. Trump said at his first cabinet meeting since the war started. While the S&P 500 had started Thursday with a decline, the losses deepened after the meeting.

“我们会继续毫无阻碍、毫不间断地打击他们，”特朗普在战争开始后的首次内阁会议上表示。尽管标准普尔500指数周四开盘时已现跌势，但在会议结束后跌幅进一步扩大。

The index fell 1.7 percent Thursday, its biggest daily decline since January, putting the index on course for its fifth straight week of losses for the first time in four years. Bourses in Asia and Europe were also lit red throughout the day.

该指数周四下跌1.7%，创下自1月份以来最大单日跌幅，并有可能录得四年来首次连续第五周下跌。亚洲和欧洲的股市当天也普遍收跌。

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose roughly 5.7 percent, to $108.01 a barrel, its highest this week.

全球油价基准布伦特原油价格上涨约5.7%，至每桶108.01美元，创下本周最高水平。

Investors and analysts have been focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is a vital trading route for oil and natural gas that normally carries as much as one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Shipping traffic exiting the Persian Gulf through the strait has been effectively halted since the war began on Feb. 28, leading to a spike in energy prices and concerns about lasting damage from the war.

投资者和分析师一直密切关注霍尔木兹海峡，这是位于伊朗和阿曼之间的一条狭窄水道，是石油和天然气的重要贸易通道，通常承载着全球多达五分之一的石油供应。自2月28日战争爆发以来，通过该海峡进出波斯湾的航运已基本中断，导致能源价格飙升，并引发战争可能造成持久损害的担忧。

Mr. Trump on Thursday afternoon said he didn’t yet know whether he would extend a deadline he gave to Iran to fully open the strait by Friday or the United States would “obliterate” power stations there.

特朗普周四下午表示，他尚未决定是否延长此前设定的最后期限，要求伊朗在周五前全面开放该海峡，否则美国将“摧毁”当地的发电设施。

But minutes after the stock markets slid to a close, Mr. Trump announced a 10-day extension to the deadline. In a post on Truth Social, he said the pause was “per Iranian Government request.”

但就在股市收跌数分钟后，特朗普宣布将最后期限延长10天。他在Truth Social上发帖称，暂停是“应伊朗政府的要求”。

It’s not the first time Mr. Trump has backed off the threat to Iranian power infrastructure. He did so on Monday too, in comments that led to a slide in oil prices and a jump in stocks that day, and served as another sign of the financial markets’ ability to sway his policies.

这并非特朗普第一次在针对伊朗电力基础设施的威胁上退让。他周一也曾作出退让表态，当时引发了油价下跌和股市上涨，这也再次显示出金融市场对其政策走向的影响力。

The war also continues to pressure bond yields, raising concerns over housing affordability and inflation generally.

这场战争也持续给债券收益率带来压力，引发了人们对住房负担能力以及整体通胀的担忧。

Government bond yields, which underpin borrowing costs across consumer and corporate debt, rose on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest since July. The jump in bond yields has already begun to weigh on the housing market, as mortgage rates follow: The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate climbed to 6.38 percent, Freddie Mac said on Thursday. That is its highest level since the first week of September.

决定消费者和企业借贷成本的政府债券收益率周四上涨，其中10年期美国国债收益率升至去年7月以来的最高水平。债券收益率的飙升已经开始对房地产市场造成压力，抵押贷款利率也随之上升：房地美周四表示，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率攀升至6.38%，为去年9月第一周以来的最高水平。

Higher interest rates have accompanied the move higher in oil prices as investors fret about the potential for energy costs to reignite inflation. The Federal Reserve has already said it is likely to keep interest rates elevated until it can be sure inflation is under control.

随着油价上涨，利率也随之走高，投资者担心能源成本可能再次推高通胀。美联储此前已表示，在确信通胀得到控制之前，可能会维持较高利率。

Also on Thursday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted that the inflation rate in the United States will average 4.2 percent this year, more than one percentage point higher than a previous forecast made late last year.

同样在周四，经合组织预测，美国今年的通胀率平均为4.2%，比去年底的预测高出1个百分点以上。

In a report this week, Oxford Economics forecast a gradual decline in energy prices, but said that “a prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz or sustained closures of oil and gas facilities could lead to significantly worse outcomes.”

牛津经济研究院本周在一份报告中预计能源价格将逐步回落，但也警告称，“霍尔木兹海峡航运长期中断或石油和天然气设施持续关闭，可能导致更为严重的后果。”

We’ve seen prebiotic sodas for gut health, the “sleepy girl mocktail” for sleep and lemon water for immunity and weight loss. Now, the latest beverage riding the online wellness wave is hot water.

我们见过为肠道健康推出的益生元汽水、助眠的“睡美人无酒精鸡尾酒”，以及主打提升免疫力和减肥的柠檬水。眼下，最新一款搭上网络养生热潮的饮品是热水。

The trend is part of a wider online phenomenon of people adopting elements of Eastern medicine and Chinese culture and documenting their experiences on social media.

这一趋势是一个更广泛的网络现象的一部分，即人们接纳东方医学和中国文化的元素，并在社交媒体上记录自己的体验。

A popular example is drinking hot or warm water in the morning before breakfast. Many claim it improves digestion, leaving them feeling thinner and less bloated — and occasionally running for the bathroom. Some also say it improves the skin, helps with weight loss and even “detoxifies” the body.

一个常见的做法是早餐前喝一杯热水或温水。许多人声称这能改善消化，让人感觉更轻盈、不易腹胀——有时甚至会让人急着跑去上厕所。还有人说它能改善皮肤、帮助减肥，甚至让身体“排毒”。

All this from water? We asked experts to help us boil it down.

这一切竟然只是靠水？我们请专家来帮忙说清楚。

A Kick-Start to the Gut

唤醒肠道

For thousands of years, practitioners of traditional Chinese medicine and ayurveda — a holistic medical system from India — have encouraged drinking hot or warm water in the morning (and throughout the day), in part to keep the digestive system operating at its best. When food and drinks are consumed cold, the thinking goes, digestion worsens, leading to gastrointestinal discomfort like bloating, said Jeff Gould, an acupuncturist at Johns Hopkins Medicine who is trained in traditional Chinese medicine.

数千年来，中医和阿育吠陀（源自印度的一种整体医学体系）一直提倡在早晨（以及一天中其他时间）饮用热水或温水，其中一个原因是帮助消化系统保持最佳运作状态。约翰斯·霍普金斯医学中心接受过中医训练的针灸师杰夫·古尔德表示，从这些理论来看，食用冷的食物或饮料会削弱消化功能，从而引发腹胀等胃肠不适。

Few scientific studies have explored the digestive benefits of hot or warm water. One, published in 2016, looked at 60 patients who had just come out of gallbladder surgery and found that those who drank warm water a few hours after the procedure passed gas sooner than those who didn’t drink anything. The water didn’t significantly hasten their first bowel movement, however. (Other research suggests that coffee is better for that.)

鲜有科学研究探讨过热水或温水对消化的益处。2016年发表的一项研究报告观察了60名刚做完胆囊手术的患者，发现术后几小时饮用温水的患者比未饮用的患者更早排气。不过，饮水并未显著加快他们的首次排便时间。（另有研究表明，咖啡在这方面的效果更好。）

There are a few small studies that have suggested that cold drinks or meals might cause the stomach to empty its contents more slowly than warm or hot ones. But those studies are limited, experts say. And it’s not clear how (or if) that would affect the way you feel, Dr. Linda A. Lee, a gastroenterologist at Northwell Health in New Hyde Park, N.Y., said via email.

还有一些小规模研究显示，冷饮或冷食可能会让胃排空的速度比温热食物更慢。但专家表示，这些研究证据有限。纽约州新海德公园诺斯韦尔健康中心的胃肠病学家琳达·李博士在邮件中表示，尚不清楚这种差异如何（或是否会）影响人的实际感受。

Despite the lack of scientific evidence, sipping warm water to stimulate a No. 2 first thing in the morning does make physiological sense, said Dr. Lisa Ganjhu, a gastroenterologist at NYU Langone Health. Your digestion slows while you sleep, she said. Anything you eat or drink — at any temperature — upon waking spurs waves of contraction and relaxation in the muscles of the esophagus, stomach and intestines. “It’s basically telling everyone, ‘OK, get up. We’ve got to get moving,’” Dr. Ganjhu said.

纽约大学朗格尼医学中心的胃肠病学家丽莎·甘朱博士表示，尽管缺乏科学证据，但从生理角度来看，早晨第一件事就是喝温水来刺激排便是有一定道理的。她说，人在睡眠期间消化活动会减慢。醒来后，你摄入的任何东西——无论温度如何——都会刺激食道、胃和肠道肌肉产生收缩和舒张的波动。“这基本上是在告诉整个消化系统，‘好了，起床了，我们要开始运转了，’”甘朱博士说。

Dr. Folasade May, a gastroenterologist and associate professor of medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, said she was unfamiliar with hot water’s star turn on social media. Many of her patients have mentioned that they have an easier time passing bowel movements after drinking warm water (often with lemon) first thing in the morning. Some, she said, may feel an almost immediate urge to use the toilet, though she added that the temperature of the water may not be important; it’s possible they’d have the same experience if the water were lukewarm or cold.

加州大学洛杉矶分校医学副教授、胃肠病学家福拉萨德·梅博士表示，她此前并不了解热水在社交媒体上的走红。她的许多患者提到，早晨起床后喝温水（通常加柠檬）会更容易排便。有些人甚至会几乎立刻产生如厕的冲动。不过她也补充说，水的温度可能并非关键——即使是温凉水甚至冷水，也可能产生同样效果。

Whether prompted by water, coffee, juice or food, any forward motion of the gastrointestinal tract moves not only stool but gas, Dr. May said, which can make you “feel less distended, less bloated.”

梅博士说，无论是水、咖啡、果汁还是食物引发的，胃肠道的任何前进运动不仅会推动粪便，也会推动气体，从而让人“感觉不那么胀，不那么鼓”。

As for claims that drinking hot water has “detoxifying” properties, Kristen Smith, a dietitian and spokeswoman for the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, said that water doesn’t remove toxins — the liver and kidneys do.

关于喝热水可以“排毒”的说法，营养与饮食学会的发言人、营养师克里斯汀·史密斯表示，水并不能清除毒素——这项工作是由肝脏和肾脏完成的。

And when it comes to weight loss, some people may notice a temporary drop on the scale right after a substantial bowel movement, Dr. Ganjhu said. If the water is replacing sugary, high-calorie drinks, Dr. May said, it could lead to more permanent weight loss.

至于减重方面，甘朱博士表示，有些人在一次较大量排便后，体重秤上的数字可能会暂时下降。梅博士说，如果饮用水替代了含糖、高热量的饮料，这可能带来更持久的减肥效果。

The Advantages of Hydration

补水的好处

It’s possible that the main benefit of drinking warm water in the morning is simply that it’s hydrating, Ms. Smith said.

史密斯表示，早晨喝温水的主要好处可能就是补充水分。

When you wake up, you’re a little dehydrated, Dr. Ganjhu added, so drinking water can help with any of the symptoms that may come along with that, like hunger, headaches and grogginess. Over time, she said, staying hydrated makes stool softer and easier to pass, helping to keep you regular and feel less bloated.

甘朱博士补充说，人在醒来时往往处于轻度脱水状态，因此喝水可以缓解由此带来的一些症状，比如饥饿感、头痛和昏沉感。她还表示，假以时日，身体不缺水就可以让粪便更柔软、更容易排出，有助于维持排便规律，并减少腹胀感。

There’s also evidence that drinking more water can improve the appearance of the skin by reducing dryness. If you don’t drink enough during the day, Dr. May said, regularly having some in the morning can help “close the gap.”

还有研究表明，多喝水可以通过减少干燥来改善皮肤外观态。梅博士说，如果你白天饮水不足，那么早晨规律地喝一些水有助于“弥补缺口”。

The hot water trend is proving what we already know, she said: “Water is really good for you all around.”

她说，喝热水潮流恰好证明了我们已经知道的事实：“多喝水对身体各方面都有好处。”

As first lady, Melania Trump promotes opportunities for foster children, argues for the eradication of online bullying and often travels to military bases in support of soldiers and their families.

作为第一夫人，梅拉尼娅·特朗普致力于为领养儿童创造机会，呼吁消除网暴，并经常前往军事基地支持士兵及其家属。

She is also very into robots.

她还非常喜欢机器人。

On Wednesday, Mrs. Trump appeared at the White House alongside Figure 3, a humanoid, A.I.-powered robot whose uses, according to the company that makes it, include fetching towels, carrying groceries and serving champagne. But Mrs. Trump joins tech executives and some researchers in envisioning a world beyond robot butlery. She is interested in how these robots could cut it as educators.

周三，特朗普夫人与Figure 3一同现身白宫。这是一款由人工智能驱动的人形机器人，据其制造商称，它可以取毛巾、搬运杂货、倒香槟。但特朗普夫人与科技高管及部分研究人员一样，并不满足于机器人仅做家务。她对这些机器人能否胜任教育者的角色很感兴趣。

Both clad in shades of white, the first lady and the visiting robot walked into a gathering of first spouses from around the world, a group that included Sara Netanyahu of Israel, Olena Zelenska of Ukraine, and Brigitte Macron of France. The dulcet tones from a (presumably human) military orchestra played as the first lady and her guest entered the event.

第一夫人和来访的机器人均身着白色调服装，一同走进一场全球第一配偶的聚会。与会者包括以色列的萨拉·内塔尼亚胡、乌克兰的奥莱娜·泽连斯卡，以及法国的布丽吉特·马克龙。当第一夫人和她的客人入场时，一支（估计是由人类组成的）军乐队奏响了柔和的旋律。

Both lady and robot extolled the virtues of further integrating robots into the educational and social lives of children. In the history of modern first-lady initiatives, which have included building a national book festival (Laura Bush), reshuffling the food pyramid (Michelle Obama) and advocating for free community college (Jill Biden), Mrs. Trump’s involvement of a humanoid robot in education policy was a first.

第一夫人和机器人都赞扬了将机器人进一步融入儿童教育和社会生活的益处。在现代第一夫人倡议的历史中——包括创办全国图书节（劳拉·布什）、调整食物金字塔（米歇尔·奥巴马）、倡导免费社区学院（吉尔·拜登），特朗普夫人将人形机器人引入教育政策的倡议尚属首次。

Figure 3 delivered brief remarks and delivered salutations in several languages. With its sleek black-and-white appearance, Figure 3 would fit right in with the first lady’s branding aesthetic, which includes a self-titled coffee table book and movie, not least because the name “MELANIA” was emblazoned on the side of its glossy plastic head.

Figure 3发表了简短致辞，并用多种语言致以问候。它那光滑的黑白外观与第一夫人的品牌美学非常契合——后者包括一本以自己命名的咖啡桌书和电影。更巧的是，它的亮面塑料头部侧面还醒目地印着“MELANIA”字样。

After Figure 3 teetered gingerly away, Mrs. Trump looked around the room and told them that the future looked a lot like what they had just witnessed.

在Figure 3小心翼翼地摇晃着离开后，特朗普夫人环顾四周，对大家说：未来看起来很像他们刚刚目睹的场景。

“The future of A.I. is ‘personified,’” she told her audience. “It will be formed in the shape of humans. Very soon artificial intelligence will move from our mobile phones to humanoids that deliver utility.”

“人工智能的未来是‘拟人化’的，”她告诉听众，“它将以人类的形态出现。很快，人工智能将从我们的手机转向能够提供实用功能的人形机器人。”

She invited her guests to envision a future in which a robot philosopher educated children.

她邀请客人们想象这样一个未来：一个机器人哲学家来教育孩子。

机器人头部的屏幕上显示着第一夫人的名字。

“Imagine a humanoid educator named ‘Plato,’” she said. “Access to the classical studies is now instantaneous: literature, science, art, philosophy, mathematics, and history. Humanity’s entire corpus of information is available in the comfort of your home.”

“想象一个名叫‘柏拉图’的人形教育者，”她说，“对古典学研究的获取现在变得即时可得：文学、科学、艺术、哲学、数学和历史。人类全部知识体系都能在家中舒适的环境中获得。”

The first lady has talked about the possibilities of robotics before. She has also warned about the dangers of relying too much on technology. Last fall, flanked by administration officials who work in technology and artificial intelligence, Mrs. Trump’s warning had a bit of gravity to it.

第一夫人此前就曾谈及机器人技术的可能性。她也警告过过度依赖技术的危险。去年秋天，在一群负责技术和人工智能的政府官员陪同下，特朗普夫人的警告带有几分严肃意味。

“The robots are here,” she said at a White House event last September. “Our future is no longer science fiction.”

“机器人已经来了，”她在去年9月的一次白宫活动中说，“我们的未来不再是科幻小说。”

In that event, she also likened embracing A.I. to adopting a productive parenting strategy: “empowering, but with watchful guidance.”

在那次活动中，她还将拥抱人工智能比作一种富有成效的育儿策略：“赋予力量，但需伴以警惕的指导。”

Mrs. Trump’s enthusiasm for using artificial intelligence to teach children mirrors another official initiative within the administration. Last April, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a task force to evaluate and fund private programs that could partner with government initiatives to fold A.I. into curriculums or train educators. Mrs. Trump is not an official part of that task force but used her time on Wednesday to argue to “bring the private and public sector worlds together.”

特朗普夫人对利用人工智能教育儿童的热情与政府内部的另一项官方举措相呼应。去年4月，特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，成立一个特别工作组，负责评估和资助私人项目，使其与政府举措合作，将人工智能融入课程或培训教育者。特朗普夫人并非该工作组的正式成员，但她在周三利用此次机会主张“将私营部门和公共部门的世界连接起来”。

A spokesman for Mrs. Trump did not immediately return a request for comment on Wednesday about whether or not Figure AI, the company that produces the robots, had current contracts with the administration or federal government. Figure AI is backed, in part, by Nvidia, the tech behemoth that recently got Mr. Trump’s permission to sell A.I. chips to China, reversing decades of existing technology restrictions against Beijing. Last year, Figure AI said that it planned to produce at least 100,000 humanoid robots in the coming years.

对于生产该机器人的Figure AI是否与政府有现行合同的问题，特朗普夫人的发言人周三未立即回复置评。Figure AI的部分资金来自英伟达，这家科技巨头最近获得特朗普的许可，向中国出售人工智能芯片，逆转了数十年来对北京的技术限制。去年，Figure AI表示计划在未来几年生产至少10万台人形机器人。

Researchers are split about the benefits of using artificial intelligence to educate children, but some see its potential as a supplemental tool to develop reading and social skills. Last fall, researchers at the University of Chicago’s Human-Robot Interaction Lab published a study that showed that children demonstrated less anxiety when reading to a robot versus a human teacher. In other studies, children have formed social bonds with robots as they have practiced skills including handwriting and completing puzzles.

研究人员对于使用人工智能教育儿童的益处意见不一，但一些人认为它有潜力作为补充工具，帮助培养阅读和社会技能。去年秋天，芝加哥大学人机交互实验室的研究人员发表了一项研究，显示儿童在对着机器人阅读时表现出的焦虑感要比面对人类教师时低。还有一些研究表明，儿童在练习写字和完成拼图等技能时，与机器人形成了社交联络。

Researchers also advise caution about turning over a fleet of humanoid robots to educate children. Vivienne Ming, a neuroscientist and A.I. researcher, wrote on the news site CNBC on Tuesday that parents and educators should be involved in making sure that children learn alongside A.I. tools, rather than be taught by them.

研究人员也建议谨慎行事，不要把对儿童的教育丢给一群人形机器人。神经科学家兼人工智能研究员维维安·明周二在CNBC网站上撰文称，父母和教育者应参与其中，确保儿童是与人工智能工具一起学习，而不是完全由它们来教。

“A.I. should never provide the final answer,” she wrote. “Kids can use it to brainstorm or explore, but they must produce their own first draft or solution.”

“人工智能永远不应提供最终答案，”她写道，“孩子们可以用它来头脑风暴或探索，但他们必须自己完成初稿或解决方案。”

Marc Beckman, an adviser to Mrs. Trump, told Turning Point USA on Wednesday that the first lady had also invited representatives from the Alpha School, an A.I.-powered private school, to participate in the summit with other first spouses. He called Mrs. Trump “ahead of the curve.”

特朗普夫人的顾问马克·贝克曼周三告诉Turning Point USA，第一夫人还邀请了由人工智能驱动的私立学校“阿尔法学校”的代表参加这场第一配偶峰会。他称特朗普夫人“走在了时代前列”。

“She’s about impacting people’s lives,” Mr. Beckman said when asked about what Americans should know about the first lady’s platform. “And if they could support her, if they could get around her and help stand up these missions of empowering children through education and technology, it would be amazing.”

“她关注的是影响人们的生活，”贝克曼在被问及美国人应该如何了解第一夫人的纲领时说，“如果他们能够支持她，围绕在她身边，帮助推动这些通过教育和技术赋能儿童的使命，那将会非常了不起。”

Mrs. Trump views herself and her potential in similar terms.

特朗普夫人用类似的言辞描述了自己以及她的潜力。

“As a visionary, I know success is not born overnight, but rather takes shape after a long and sometimes challenging process,” Mrs. Trump said during a Women’s History Month event held earlier this month at the White House. “Often alone at the top, I follow my passion, listen to my instinct, and always maintain a laser focus.”

“作为一名有远见者，我知道成功并非一蹴而就，而是经过漫长、有时充满挑战的过程逐渐成形，”特朗普夫人在本月早些时候于白宫举行的妇女历史月活动中表示，“我常常独自站在顶端，循着自己的热情，听从本能，并始终保持激光般的专注。”

Across Asia, countries already vulnerable to the sustained disruption in energy supplies from the Persian Gulf are also contending with an ominous side effect. Their currencies are being suffocated by a dollar that is surging in value.

在亚洲，许多国家本就易受波斯湾能源供应持续中断的影响，如今又在应对一个令人不安的副作用：它们的货币正被不断升值的美元绞杀。

The war in the Middle East has effectively cut off oil and gas that travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel that has become the world’s most dangerous bottleneck.

中东战争已经实质上切断经由霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油和天然气，这条狭窄通道成为全球最危险的瓶颈。

The fighting has revealed a second painful choke point. About 90 percent of international trade in goods — including the oil and gas that are skyrocketing in price — uses the American currency.

冲突暴露了第二个痛苦的咽喉要道。大约90%的国际货物贸易——包括价格正在暴涨的石油和天然气——都使用美元作为结算货币。

And as often happens in times of global turmoil, investors are taking money out of riskier regions and putting more money into U.S. assets. That is driving up the dollar, which is approaching its highest value against Asian currencies in the past two decades. A result is that many currencies are growing weaker just when their buying power is most needed.

而在全球动荡时期，投资者往往会将资金从风险较高的地区撤出，转而投入美国资产。这推动美元升值，目前美元兑亚洲货币的汇率正接近过去二十年来的最高水平。结果就是，许多货币在最需要购买力的时候却变得更加疲软。

The combined effect of these pressures has debilitated economies across Asia, where some local energy costs are even higher than global benchmark prices and stock investors are running scared.

这些压力的叠加效应已使亚洲各经济体陷入困境，那里一些本地能源成本甚至高于全球基准价格，而股市投资者则惊慌逃离。

由于柴油短缺和燃油价格上涨，泰国渔业在未来几周内可能面临大量渔船被迫停港的压力。

On Monday, India’s main stock index lost 2.5 percent of its value in the hours before President Trump announced a five-day delay in his plan to bombard Iran’s energy infrastructure — having fallen almost 13 percent since the war started. Those stock market losses have pulled money out of India, pressing its currency, the rupee, lower. South Korea’s currency, the won, had just matched its lowest-ever exchange rate against the dollar, for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008.

周一，在特朗普总统宣布将其轰炸伊朗能源基础设施的计划推迟五天之前，印度主要股指损失了2.5%的价值——自战争爆发以来，该指数已下跌近13%。这些股市损失导致资金流出印度，进一步压低了卢比汇率。韩元兑美元汇率刚刚创下自2008年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。

Both countries have seen some easing of the financial strain in the past few days, keying in on signals that Mr. Trump is seeking an offramp for the war. But deeper risks have taken root.

过去几天，这两个国家都看到金融压力有所缓解，这与特朗普寻求退出战争的信号有关。但更深层的风险已经扎根。

In the Philippines, higher oil prices and a weaker Philippine peso present a “double whammy that will double inflation in the coming months, hitting millions of poor Filipino families the hardest,” the IBON Foundation, an economic research group, said in a note on Friday. The country’s president, Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday. The Philippines imports 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East.

在菲律宾，油价上涨和比索贬值构成了“双重打击，将在未来几个月使通胀加倍，数百万贫困的菲律宾家庭将承受最严重的打击”，经济研究机构IBON基金会周五在一份报告中指出。该国总统费迪南德·R·马科斯二世周二宣布进入全国能源紧急状态。菲律宾90%的石油从中东进口。

菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯于周二宣布该国进入国家能源紧急状态。

In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung started a nationwide energy-saving campaign on Tuesday. Nearly 70 percent of that country’s supply of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

在韩国，李在明总统周二启动了全国节能运动。该国近70%的原油供应需经过霍尔木兹海峡。

The whole world is struggling with the new scarcity of oil, which analysts have estimated to be worse than the 1970s’ shocks.

全世界都在与新的石油短缺作斗争，分析师估计这次冲击比1970年代的石油危机还要严重。

Even in the United States, which became a net energy exporter during the oil-shale boom, the average gallon of gasoline has climbed to $3.98, more than a dollar higher than before the war.

即使随着页岩油大发展已成为净能源出口国的美国，汽油平均价格也已升至每加仑3.98美元，比战前高出超过一美元。

Compare that with what is happening to Asia. First, the shortage of supply is worse. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil traded across the Atlantic Ocean is now about $100, up from $70 a month ago. But because Asian countries buy so much of their oil from the Middle East, the intense demand for the suddenly smaller supply has driven prices even higher.

与亚洲的情况相比，首先是供应短缺更为严重。大西洋两岸交易的布伦特原油价格目前约为每桶100美元，相比一个月前的70美元左右上涨了约30美元。但由于亚洲国家大量从中东购买石油，对突然减少的供应的激烈争夺已将价格推得更高。

The second whammy strikes when those prices are converted into currencies that are shrinking in comparison with the dollar. India’s rupee has been weakening for the past year, even when the dollar itself was shrinking relative to most currencies. One dollar now costs 93.2 rupees, 8 percent more than a year ago.

第二个打击发生在这些价格换算成相对于美元不断贬值的本地货币时。印度卢比在过去一年里一直在贬值，即使当时美元相对于大多数货币都在走弱。现在1美元兑换93.2卢比，比一年前高出8%。

So Indian buyers must pay 14,748 rupees to get exactly as much energy as they got for 6,087 one year before the war.

因此，印度买家现在必须支付14748卢比，才能买到战前一年只需6087卢比就能获得的等量能源。

新加坡裕廊岛的储油罐和炼油厂。

“Having the oil price go up when their exchange rates are already weak is doubly painful,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard.

“在汇率已经疲弱的情况下油价上涨，是双重痛苦，”哈佛大学经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫说。

Spending so much on an essential commodity is a cold reality across Asia.

在亚洲各地，为这种必需品花费巨资已成为冷酷的现实。

Thailand’s truck drivers, for example, have said they lack diesel, which like gasoline is refined from crude oil and has leaped in price, to drive goods to and from ports.

例如，泰国的卡车司机表示，他们缺乏柴油（柴油和汽油一样从原油中提炼而成），其价格已大幅上涨，导致货物无法运往港口或从港口运出。

The currency of any country that spends more on imported goods while earning less from exports is losing value to the rest of the world. And when anxious investors shift their capital — often to the dollar, traditionally the safest store of value — that further depreciates the struggling currency.

任何进口支出增加而出口收入减少的国家的货币，都会在全球范围内贬值。而当焦虑的投资者将资本转移——往往转向传统的安全价值储存手段美元，就会进一步加速疲弱货币的贬值。

Thailand’s currency, the baht, had started this year on a stronger footing than India’s rupee. But it has quickly fallen to a 10-month low and is expected to keep sinking as long as the war lasts.

泰铢今年年初的走势强于印度卢比，但现在已迅速跌至10个月低点，并且只要战争持续，预计会继续下沉。

Thailand’s tourism and export industries usually benefit from a weak baht. This time, however, jitters over global travel have led to canceled vacations.

泰国的旅游业和出口业通常会从疲弱的泰铢中受益。然而这一次，对全球旅行的担忧已导致大量度假行程被取消。

The question for nervous governments becomes: How best to distribute the pain? Tradeoffs abound.

紧张的政府面临的问题是：如何更好地分摊这些痛苦？处处都要权衡取舍。

Jahangir Aziz, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York, said that for any country, “the question is, how do you want to absorb the hit?” Governments and central banks must make decisions that end up determining who is hurt the worst.

摩根大通纽约首席经济学家贾汉吉尔·阿齐兹表示，对任何国家来说，“问题在于，你想如何吸收这一冲击？”政府和央行必须做出决定，最终谁将受到最严重的伤害。

上周，在斯里兰卡科伦坡，一处近乎空无一人的火车站。此前，政府为节约紧缺的燃油储备，宣布缩短了工作周。

On the one hand, a country’s central bank could stand pat and let the currency’s value shrink. Then the country’s imports become more expensive, but its exports become cheaper. Cheaper exports helps some local businesses, and workers who earn dollars abroad can send home more in remittances to support the domestic economy.

一方面，一国央行可以按兵不动，任由本币贬值。这样该国的进口会变得更贵，但出口会更便宜。更便宜的出口有助于一些本地企业，而在海外赚取美元的工人也能汇回更多钱来支持国内经济。

However, more costly imports mean a country’s households and consumers must bear higher prices. And that can destabilize society and even topple governments. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka ousted political dynasties during recent financial crises. The Asian currency crisis of 1997 ended a 31-year autocracy in Indonesia.

然而，更昂贵的进口意味着该国的家庭和消费者必须承受更高的价格。这可能导致社会动荡，甚至推翻政府。孟加拉国和斯里兰卡曾在最近的金融危机中推翻了政治王朝。1997年的亚洲货币危机结束了印度尼西亚长达31年的独裁统治。

When a government sets out to defend its currency from a surging dollar, Mr. Aziz said, it faces a stark choice: “The only way you do that is by spending very large amounts of foreign reserves — or you let interest rates rise.”

阿齐兹说，当政府决心捍卫本币免受美元飙升的冲击时，它面临一个严峻的选择：“唯一的方法是花费大量外汇储备——或者让利率上升。”

The crisis affecting countries today is nothing like the Asian currency crisis, Mr. Aziz said, in part because of lessons learned back then. Exchange rates are now allowed to float, meaning that currencies’ values fluctuate in sync with supply and demand. And countries have piled up large reserves of dollars and other foreign assets they can use in times like this.

阿齐兹表示，今天影响各国的危机与亚洲货币危机不同，部分原因是当时吸取的教训。如今汇率被允许浮动，即货币价值随供求关系波动。而且各国已积累了大量美元和其他外国资产储备，可在类似时期使用。

Mr. Rogoff of Harvard said the pain borne by Asia this year was likely to make the dollar less attractive in the future.

哈佛大学的罗格夫表示，亚洲今年承受的痛苦很可能让美元在未来变得不那么有吸引力。

“Anything that poses obstacles to global trade and creates geopolitical fracturing is bad for a currency that claims to dominate the whole world,” he said.

“任何对全球贸易构成障碍并造成地缘政治分裂的事情，都对一种声称主导全世界的货币不利，”他说。

上周，在首尔某银行外汇交易点的货币交易员。韩元兑美元汇率刚刚触及了自2008年金融危机以来的最低点。

But the need of the hour across Asia is to scare up enough hard currency to buy urgently needed energy. The future of the dollar’s role, Mr. Rogoff said, will be answered later by a question “about trust in the U.S.: Is it still a safe haven and a safe partner?”

但亚洲各国当务之急是筹集足够硬通货来购买急需的能源。罗格夫说，美元角色的未来，将在稍后由一个关于“对美国的信任”的问题来回答：“它是否仍然是一个安全的避风港和可靠的伙伴？”

On Wednesday, a Los Angeles jury held Meta and YouTube liable for claims their platforms are addictive and have harmed young users, and ordered them to pay a combined $6 million in damages.

周三，洛杉矶的一个陪审团裁定，Meta和YouTube应对它们的平台具有成瘾性并伤害年轻用户的指控承担责任，并责令两家公司合计赔偿600万美元。

The verdict was the first in a series of trials expected this year in which plaintiffs’ lawyers are testing a novel legal theory claiming that Meta, YouTube, Snap and TikTok caused personal injury through defective products.

该判决是今年一系列审判中的首个结果，原告律师在这些审判中正在测试一种新的法律理论，即Meta、YouTube、Snap和TikTok因其有缺陷的产品造成了人身伤害。

Thousands of individuals, school districts and state attorneys general have filed similar lawsuits. This week’s win could open the door to an avalanche of similar claims.

数以千计的个人、学区以及州检察长已经提起类似诉讼。本周的这一胜诉可能为大量类似索赔打开大门。

Here’s what to know.

以下是需要了解的情况。

What are the cases about?

这些案件主要涉及什么？

These cases test the argument that social media was built to be addictive, like cigarettes or casino slot machines.

这些案件试图论证，社交媒体的设计本身就带有成瘾性，就像香烟或老虎机一样。

The lawsuits claim that social media features like infinite scrolling, algorithmic recommendations, notifications and videos that play automatically lead to compulsive use. The plaintiffs contend that the resulting addiction has led to problems like depression, anxiety, eating disorders and self-harm, including suicide.

这些诉讼称，无限滚动、算法推荐、通知提醒以及自动播放的视频等社交媒体功能导致了强迫性使用。原告认为，由此产生的成瘾已经引发了抑郁、焦虑、饮食失调以及包括自杀在内的自残行为等问题。

The cases have drawn comparisons to those against Big Tobacco in the 1990s, when companies like Philip Morris and R.J. Reynolds were accused of hiding information about the harms of cigarettes.

这些案件被拿来与上世纪90年代针对烟草巨头的诉讼相提并论，当时菲利普莫里斯和雷诺烟草等公司被指控隐瞒了香烟危害的相关信息。

What was the first lawsuit about?

第一起诉讼是什么案件？

The first plaintiff was a 20-year-old woman from California identified as K.G.M. in California Superior Court in Los Angeles County.

首位原告是一名来自加州的20岁女性，在洛杉矶县高等法院的诉讼文件中被称为K.G.M.。

K.G.M. created a YouTube account at age 8, then joined Instagram, which is owned by Meta, at 9. In her lawsuit, she claimed she became addicted to the social media sites as a child and experienced anxiety, depression and body-image issues as a result.

K.G.M.在八岁时创建了一个YouTube账户，九岁时又加入了Meta旗下的Instagram。她在诉讼中称，自己从小就对这些社交媒体网站成瘾，并因此经历了焦虑、抑郁和身材焦虑问题。

K.G.M.’s lawyer said during opening statements that Instagram and YouTube’s apps were built like “digital casinos” that profited off addictive behavior.

K.G.M.的律师在开庭陈述中表示，Instagram和YouTube的应用被设计成类似“数字赌场”，通过用户的成瘾行为获利。

The trial lasted five weeks, and jurors deliberated for more than a week.

该审判持续了五周，陪审团审议了超过一周时间。

On Wednesday, all but two of the jurors determined that Meta and YouTube were negligent in designing their platforms, and that their products harmed K.G.M.

周三，除两名陪审员外，其余陪审员均裁定Meta和YouTube在平台设计上存在疏忽，其产品对K.G.M.造成了伤害。

More trials will follow?

还会有更多审判吗？

Yes, judges have bundled some of the strongest cases among the thousands of suits that were filed to act as bellwethers. A total of nine cases are expected to be heard in the series of trials in Los Angeles, including K.G.M.’s.

会的。法官已从数千起已提起的诉讼中挑选出一些最有代表性的案件，作为标杆案件进行审理。预计在洛杉矶的这一系列审判中将审理共九起案件，其中就包括K.G.M.的案件。

This summer, a separate set of federal cases will go to trial in Oakland, Calif., at the U.S. District Court of Northern California. In that series of cases, school districts and states plan to argue that social media is a public nuisance and that they have had to shoulder the costs of treating a generation of youths suffering from addictive social media use.

今年夏天，另一组联邦案件将在加利福尼亚州奥克兰的美国北加州联邦地区法院开庭审理。在这一系列案件中，学区和各州计划提出社交媒体构成了公害，而学区和州政府不得不承担治疗一代因沉迷社交媒体而受害的年轻人的费用。

In another case, a New Mexico jury on Tuesday found Meta liable for violating state law by failing to safeguard users of its apps from child predators, in a case brought by the state attorney general.

在另一起由新墨西哥州总检察长提起的案件中，该州的一个陪审团周二裁定，Meta因未能保护应用程序的用户免受儿童性侵犯者的侵害，违反了州法律，应承担相应责任。

How are the companies defending themselves?

这些公司是如何为自己辩护的？

Meta, Snap, TikTok and YouTube, which is owned by Google, all argue that there is no clear scientific link between tech use and addiction and insist there needs to be strong proof that their products significantly harmed young users.

Meta、Snap、TikTok以及谷歌旗下的YouTube均辩称，目前尚无明确的科学证据表明科技产品的使用与成瘾之间存在关联，并强调必须要有确凿证据证明它们的产品对年轻用户造成了显著伤害。

The social media companies have cited a federal shield law, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, that protects them from liability for what their users post online.

这些社交媒体公司援引了一项联邦保护性法律——1996年《通信规范法》第230条，该条款使其无需对用户在平台上发布的内容承担责任。

Snap, which owns Snapchat, and TikTok reached settlements with K.G.M. for undisclosed amounts.

旗下拥有Snapchat的Snap公司以及TikTok已与K.G.M.达成和解，具体金额未披露。

Meta said during K.G.M.’s trial that her health issues were caused by familial abuse and turmoil. The company presented medical records to show that social media addiction was not a focus of her therapy sessions.

Meta在K.G.M.的庭审中表示，她的健康问题源于家庭中的虐待和动荡。该公司出示的医疗记录显示，社交媒体成瘾并非她治疗过程中的重点。

Meta’s chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, and the head of Instagram, Adam Mosseri, defended the company during the trial. The executives rejected claims that Instagram could be described as “clinically” addictive.

Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格和Instagram负责人亚当·莫塞里在庭审中为公司辩护。两位高管均否认Instagram可以被描述为“临床意义上的”成瘾性产品。

YouTube said that it was not a social media company and that its features were not designed to be addictive.

YouTube则表示，自己并非一家社交媒体公司，其功能也并非为让人上瘾而设计。

Both companies said Wednesday they were disappointed with the verdict. Meta said it was examining its legal options, and YouTube said it plans to appeal.

两家公司周三均表示对判决结果感到失望。Meta称正在评估法律应对选项，YouTube则表示计划提出上诉。

What’s at stake?

此案有哪些重大影响？

The plaintiffs are asking for monetary damages and potential design changes to the platforms to prevent addictive behavior.

原告正在要求赔偿，并可能推动平台进行设计上的改变，以防止成瘾行为。

In K.G.M.’s trial, Meta must pay $4.2 million in combined compensatory and punitive damages, and YouTube must pay $1.8 million.

在K.G.M.一案中，Meta须支付总计420万美元的补偿性赔偿和惩罚性赔偿，YouTube则须支付180万美元。

In New Mexico, the jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million. The state attorney general, Raúl Torrez, said he will ask for additional damages and changes to the design of the platform.

在新墨西哥州的案件中，陪审团判令Meta支付3.75亿美元。该州总检察长劳尔·托雷兹表示，他还将寻求更多赔偿，并要求对平台设计进行调整。

While those amounts are drops in the bucket for the companies, which bring in billions in revenue, the losses are significant as global attitudes shift against social media companies. And the wins open the door to millions of other claims by social media users.

虽然这些金额对这些年收入数十亿美元的公司来说只是九牛一毛，但鉴于全球舆论风向正转向对社交媒体公司不利，这些败诉的象征意义重大。原告的胜诉也为社交媒体用户提出数以百万计的其他索赔打开了大门。

If the companies are forced to make changes to their products, it could harm their broader business models.

如果这些公司被迫对其产品作出改变，可能会对其整体商业模式造成冲击。

On the road to Asia, President Trump and his aides have taken a sharp detour back to the deserts of the Middle East.

在前往亚洲的路上，特朗普总统及其幕僚突然转弯，重新驶向了中东的荒漠。

Instead of flying to Beijing for a summit early next month, Mr. Trump has said he will stay in Washington to deal with the war against Iran that he started with Israel. Thousands of U.S. Marines are heading on warships from Japan and California toward Iran. American air defense equipment is being shipped from South Korea and other parts of the region to the Middle East.

特朗普并未按原计划于下月初飞往北京参加峰会，而是宣布他将留在华盛顿，处理他与以色列共同发起的对伊战争。目前，数千名美国海军陆战队员正搭乘军舰，从日本和加州分头赶往伊朗。美军的防空设备也正从韩国及该地区其他地点运往中东。

So goes the American “pivot” to Asia, which looks increasingly out of reach.

美国所谓的“转向”亚洲战略正随之而去，显得愈发遥不可及。

Three American presidents have come into office vowing to focus resources on the challenges posed by China, a superpower rival to the United States with the world’s fastest-growing military and second-largest economy.

连续三任美国总统在上任之初都誓言要集中资源应对中国带来的挑战——这个美国眼中的超级大国对手，拥有全球增长最快的军事力量和第二大经济体。

Each one has instead turned to crises in other parts of the world — often to conflicts in the Middle East that they began or supported, despite earlier promises that they had learned the lessons of the costly American “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan.

然而，每一位总统最终都转向了世界其他地区的危机——通常是转向他们发起或支持的中东冲突，尽管他们此前曾承诺，已从伊拉克和阿富汗那些代价高昂的“永恒战争”中吸取了教训。

For weeks, Mr. Trump had billed the summit in Beijing as a critical meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, in which they would hash out their differences on trade, defense and diplomacy.

数周来，特朗普一直将北京峰会宣传为与中国领导人习近平的一次关键会晤，旨在通过此会彻底解决双方在贸易、国防和外交上的分歧。

Then on March 17, Mr. Trump said he would delay the meeting by five or six weeks to stay focused on Iran. (The White House said on Wednesday that the visit has been rescheduled to May 14 and 15.)

随后在3月17日，特朗普表示会面计划将推迟五至六周，以便专注于伊朗局势。（白宫周三表示，访问已重新安排在5月14日和15日。）

When asked that day by a reporter whether Iran was now a bigger foreign policy issue than China, Mr. Trump said: “Iran is just a military operation to me. Iran is just something that essentially was largely over in two or three days.”

当天，当被记者问及伊朗是否已成为比中国更大的外交课题时，特朗普表示：“对我来说，伊朗只是一场军事行动。基本上在两三天内就能大体结束。”

But the war continues, and the Pentagon’s request for a $200 billion supplemental budget indicates it could go on for many months.

但战争仍在继续。五角大楼请求的2000亿美元追加预算表明，这场冲突可能会持续数月之久。

Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war directly contradicts his administration’s national security strategy. Released in December, it said that the U.S. government’s traditional focus on the Middle East “will recede,” and that the administration would prioritize the Western Hemisphere and the Asia-Pacific region.

特朗普的开战决定与其政府的国家安全战略直接冲突。这个去年12月发布的战略明确提到，美国政府传统上对中东的关注将“消退”，政府将优先考虑西半球和亚太地区。

Specifically, it said the United States would challenge China on trade and build up military deterrence around the “first island chain,” an area east of coastal China that includes Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan, the de facto independent island that Chinese leaders aim to control.

具体而言，该战略提到美国将在贸易上挑战中国，并在“第一岛链”周围建立军事威慑。所谓“第一岛链”是指中国沿海以东的区域，包括日本、菲律宾以及台湾——这个事实上独立、而中国领导人目标控制的岛屿。

War in the Middle East, Again

中东战火重燃

Several senior political appointees in the Trump administration had said in recent years that prioritizing Asia was necessary given limits on America’s military resources and the slow production of weapons.

特朗普政府内的几位高级政治任命官员近年来一直表示，鉴于美国军事资源有限且武器生产缓慢，优先考虑亚洲是必要的。

One of them, Elbridge A. Colby, now the under secretary of defense for policy, criticized the expenditure of resources in Ukraine and the Middle East — and warned against getting into a “significant conflict” with Iran. He wrote a book on the need for a “strategy of denial” focused on Taiwan.

其中一位是现任国防部政策副部长埃尔布里奇·柯比。他曾批评在乌克兰和中东挥霍资源的行为，并警告不要与伊朗陷入“重大冲突”。他曾著书专门论述“拒止战略”的必要性，核心观点就是聚焦台湾。

Those same aides, once called “prioritizers,” are now publicly supporting Mr. Trump’s war against Iran. And some analysts have noted the irony of how, after years of U.S. officials denouncing China’s military buildup, Mr. Trump is beseeching China to send a naval expeditionary force to the Middle East to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

这些曾经被称为“优先派”的幕僚，现在却在公开支持特朗普对伊朗的战争。一些分析人士注意到了其中的讽刺意味：在多年谴责中国扩充军备后，特朗普现在竟在哀求中国派遣海军远征部队前往中东，协助维护霍尔木兹海峡的安全。

“I think the Iran war just demonstrates how hard it is for the United States to focus on Asia,” said Zack Cooper, a scholar of U.S. strategy in Asia at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research group. “Even when an administration comes in with a strategy that explicitly downgrades the Middle East in the list of regional priorities, Washington often ends up getting pulled back into conflicts in the region.”

保守派研究机构美国企业研究所的美国亚洲战略学者扎克·库珀表示：“我认为伊朗战争恰恰证明了美国想要专注于亚洲是多么困难。即便一个政府上任时明确在地区优先级名单中下调了中东的地位，华盛顿最终往往还是会被拉回该地区的冲突中。”

“Ultimately, I think this will increase concerns about whether the United States is too distracted and resource-constrained to maintain regional security,” he said. “This will drive some countries to hedge more, and it could risk emboldening China in the mid- to long term.”

库珀补充道：“最终，我认为这将加剧外界的担忧，即美国是否因过度分心和资源受限而无法维持地区安全。这将促使一些国家更多地进行对冲，从中长期来看，这可能会助长中国的气焰。”

上周，德黑兰一处公寓遭美以空袭损毁。五角大楼提出的2000亿美元补充预算请求表明，这场战争可能会持续数月之久。

Mr. Cooper argued in an essay in Foreign Affairs that the pivot announced by President Barack Obama in 2011 has been a failure, and that expectations that the United States would engage deeply across Asia were “no longer realistic.”

库珀在《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志的一篇文章中论证称，奥巴马总统在2011年宣布的“转向亚洲”战略已经失败，而期望美国深度介入亚洲各领域的想法已“不再现实”。

Although the Biden administration bolstered military cooperation with Asian allies, it failed to forge the kinds of free-trade pacts that those governments wanted as an alternative to commerce with China. The idea of free trade has been attacked by American politicians across the political spectrum, including by Mr. Trump, since Mr. Obama made the last serious attempt to engineer an ambitious trade pact in Asia.

尽管拜登政府加强了与亚洲盟友的军事合作，但未能达成这些国家所期望的那种作为对华贸易替代方案的自由贸易协定。自奥巴马最后一次认真尝试在亚洲达成一项雄心勃勃的贸易协定以来，自由贸易的理念一直受到美国各派政治人物的抨击，其中也包括特朗普。

The Biden administration also had to pour military and diplomatic resources into both Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion and Israel’s war in Gaza.

拜登政府还不得不将军事和外交资源投入到乌克兰抵御俄罗斯全面入侵以及以色列在加沙的战争中。

Even before the war against Iran, Mr. Trump’s approach to China had raised questions among many current and former American officials about his understanding of U.S.-China competition.

甚至在对伊战争爆发前，特朗普的对华方针就已经让许多现任和前任美国官员对他是否理解美中竞争产生了疑问。

Unlike President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Mr. Trump calls Mr. Xi a “very good friend,” and he rarely mentions China’s military and technological advances or its human rights record. His administration has lifted export controls on the sale of powerful semiconductor chips to China. And it has delayed a $13 billion arms sale to Taiwan that had been approved by Congress so as not to jeopardize plans for the leadership summit in Beijing, The New York Times reported.

与拜登总统不同，特朗普称习近平为“非常好的朋友”，而且很少提及中国在军事和科技领域的进步或人权记录。他的政府还放松了对华出售高性能半导体芯片的出口管制。据《纽约时报》此前报道，为了不影响在北京举行美中领导人峰会的计划，特朗普政府还推迟了国会批准的一项价值130亿美元的对台军售。

Mr. Trump announced steep tariffs on Chinese imports, to be paid by American companies, but froze those after China threatened to halt exports of processed critical minerals to the United States.

特朗普曾宣布对中国进口商品征收高额关税（由美国企业承担），但在中国威胁停止向美国出口经过加工的关键矿产后，他又暂停了这些关税措施。

Mr. Trump also imposed tariffs on Asian allies, straining those relationships.

特朗普还对亚洲盟友征收关税，导致这些国家与美国的关系陷入紧张。

What’s more, Mr. Trump refrained from publicly supporting Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, when she signaled in November that Japan might deploy its military if China tried to blockade or invade Taiwan. Last Thursday, Ms. Takaichi widened her eyes in the Oval Office when Mr. Trump cracked a joke about why he did not inform Japan of his plans to attack Iran on Feb. 28.

此外，当日本首相高市早苗在去年11月暗示，如果中国试图封锁或入侵台湾，日本可能会部署自卫队时，特朗普并未公开表示支持。上周四，当特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室开玩笑解释为何未提前告知日本其2月28日袭击伊朗的计划时，高市早苗不禁瞪大了眼睛。

“We wanted surprise,” he said. “Who knows better about surprise than Japan, OK? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK? Right?”

“我们要的就是出其不意，”他说。“谁比日本更懂出其不意呢，对吧？珍珠港事件，你们怎么没提前告诉我？对吧？”

‘A Weaker Hand With Beijing’

“对北京的筹码变弱”

The war in Iran has been a shock to Asian economies. U.S. partners and allies are grappling with plummeting oil and gas supplies caused by the shutdown of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Stock markets have fallen.

伊朗战争给亚洲的经济体造成了巨大冲击。由于霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输中断导致石油和天然气供应骤减，美国的合作伙伴和盟友正在苦苦应对。股市也随之下跌。

Meanwhile, governments are watching the United States redirect military resources to the Middle East: an aircraft carrier strike group, a contingent of up to 2,500 Marines from Okinawa and parts of a missile defense system called THAAD in South Korea. The Pentagon is also diverting some Patriot interceptor missiles from Asia for use against Iran.

与此同时，各国政府正目睹美国将军事资源调往中东：一个航母打击群、一支来自冲绳的约2500人的海军陆战队分遣队，以及部署在韩国的部分“萨德”导弹防御系统。五角大楼还将部分原本部署在亚洲“爱国者”拦截导弹用于应对伊朗。

The United States is burning through munitions — an estimated $5.6 billion worth in the first two days of the war alone — and it could take years to replenish stockpiles.

美国的军火正在迅速消耗——仅战争头两天就消耗了价值约56亿美元的弹药——而补充军火库可能需要数年时间。

去年，美国海军陆战队在日本冲绳进行训练演习。美国正将军事资源从亚洲调往中东。

“Taking the risk of causing a much broader war in the Middle East and getting the U.S. potentially bogged down as we were in Iraq, that’s not what our allies really want to see,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, the managing director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund. “They view this as probably very detrimental to their security interests.”

“冒着引发更大规模中东战争的风险，让美国像当年在伊拉克那样可能陷入泥潭，这绝不是我们的盟友愿意看到的，”德国马歇尔基金会亚洲项目执行主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)表示。“他们认为这严重损害了自身的安全利益。”

Chinese officials are weighing how their country might benefit from what they see as Mr. Trump’s missteps. Some officials are no doubt anxious about energy markets, but Iran continues to ship oil to Chinese companies, and the global economic turmoil could mean Mr. Trump is less likely to reopen his trade war with China or take other disruptive actions.

中国官员也在评估他们认为特朗普的失误可能如何让中国受益。一些官员无疑对能源市场感到担忧，但伊朗仍在向中国企业出口石油，而全球经济动荡可能意味着特朗普不太可能重启对华贸易战，或采取其他具有破坏性的行动。

“The prolongment of war with Iran will cause Trump to have to play a weaker hand with Beijing,” said Ryan Hass, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who was a career diplomat posted to China and a White House national security official. “He simply has less space to credibly threaten Beijing that he will escalate if his demands are not met.”

布鲁金斯学会学者、曾作为职业外交官派驻中国并担任白宫国家安全官员的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)表示：“与伊朗的战争拖得越久，特朗普在与北京博弈时的筹码就越弱。如果他的要求得不到满足，他根本没有足够的空间向北京发出可信的升级威胁。”

Yun Sun, a scholar at the Stimson Center in Washington who is visiting China, said that “a prevailing Chinese assessment is President Trump miscalculated the outcome of the war before he launched it.” Beijing prefers not to get deeply involved, she added, and is not discussing sending military forces to the region, as Mr. Trump had requested.

华盛顿史汀生中心学者、目前正在中国访问的孙韵表示：“中国国内一个普遍的判断是，特朗普在发动这场战争前误判了其结果。”她还说，北京并不希望深度介入，也没有在讨论应特朗普要求向该地区派遣军队的事宜。

However, China watching American aggression from afar could have its drawbacks. The aloofness limits the country’s diplomatic stature and means it has less power to shape outcomes. In 2023, China played a guarantor role when it helped to finalize a diplomatic reopening between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but it has done little during this war to try to bring about a cease-fire.

然而，中国远观美国的军事打击也可能存在弊端。这种置身事外的态度限制了其外交地位，也意味着其在塑造局势方面的影响力较小。2023年，中国在促成伊朗与沙特阿拉伯外交复交中扮演了担保方角色，但在此次战争期间，中国几乎没有采取任何行动来推动停火。

“China’s credibility as an ally of both Iran and Venezuela has been called into question,” said R. Nicholas Burns, the ambassador to China in the Biden administration. “It has not mounted anything close to an effective diplomatic response to defend either. China had boasted it was becoming a power player in the Middle East in recent years but has been left on the sidelines in the recent crisis.”

“作为伊朗和委内瑞拉的盟友，中国的可信度受到了质疑，”拜登政府时期的美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯说。“它并未做出任何可以称得上有效的外交回应来捍卫其中任何一方。中国近年来自诩正在成为中东事务的重要参与者，但在最近的危机中，它却被边缘化了。”

At the start of the year, the Russian economy looked to be giving way. Under the strain of war and sanctions, revenues were falling, production was shrinking and trade was running low. With rising tariffs, credit was prohibitively expensive and borrowing all but impossible: A wave of bankruptcies was on the horizon. In late January, Russia was forced to sell oil to India at just $22 per barrel, about a third of the market rate. As a symbol of unsustainability, it was hard to beat.

今年年初，俄罗斯经济一度濒临崩溃。在战争与制裁的双重压力下，财政收入下滑、生产萎缩、贸易低迷。关税不断上涨的同时，信贷成本高得令人望而却步，借贷渠道几乎完全断绝，破产浪潮一触即发。1月下旬，俄罗斯被迫以每桶仅22美元的价格向印度出售石油，约为市场价的三分之一。这极具象征意义，充分说明经济已难以为继。

President Vladimir Putin has heard such complaints throughout the war. Yet, according to those around him, he has chosen largely not to listen. Officials and business leaders, for their part, understood that the continuation of the war was his absolute priority and that the country’s economic situation was of little consequence. But in February something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict.

战争期间，普京总统多次听到此类抱怨，但据身边人士透露，他基本选择置之不理。官员与商界领袖也明白，继续战争是他的绝对优先事项，国家经济状况则无足轻重。但到了2月，情况出现转变。普京突然开始关注疲软的经济，甚至有迹象表明，他可能在对乌谈判问题上改变想法，寻求为冲突找到出路。

Then came the war in Iran. In one swoop, the conditions for conciliation were overturned. Amid buoyant oil prices, Western division and American overreach, the pressure on Mr. Putin to come to terms ebbed away. By a strange twist of history, the start of the war in Iran halted the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine — at the very moment when Mr. Putin appeared ready to consider it.

随后，伊朗战争爆发。一夜之间，谈判和解的条件彻底逆转。油价高涨、西方阵营分裂、美国过度扩张，迫使普京妥协的压力大幅消退。历史上演了离奇转折：就在普京看似准备考虑结束俄乌冲突之际，伊朗战争的爆发却扼杀了这一可能性。

In February, Mr. Putin seemed ready to change course and overhaul his negotiating team. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s chief envoy who is widely seen as an insubstantial figure with no real mandate, was reportedly on the verge of dismissal. The leading candidate to replace him was Igor Sechin, the head of the state oil giant Rosneft. Regarded as Mr. Putin’s right-hand man, Mr. Sechin previously oversaw Russia’s relationships with Latin America, as well as the cultivation of close relationships with American oil executives. Here was an indication that Mr. Putin might begin to take talks seriously.

2月时，普京似乎准备调整路线，重组谈判团队。据报道，被普遍认为缺乏实权、象征意义大于实际作用的克里姆林宫首席特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫即将被解职。接替他的头号人选是国有石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司总裁伊戈尔·谢钦。作为普京的核心亲信，谢钦曾负责俄罗斯与拉美国家关系，并与美国石油高管建立密切联系。这一信号表明，普京可能开始认真对待谈判。

At the same time, rumors began circulating of an imminent large-scale reshuffle of the Russian government. If Mr. Putin were to engage properly in negotiations and pursue peace with Ukraine, he would have to entirely rebuild the structure of power. According to people close to the Kremlin, that could include dismissing the current government. Clouds had already begun to gather over Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin: Individuals close to him have recently become defendants in criminal cases.

与此同时，有关俄罗斯政府即将大规模改组的传言开始流传。若普京真想认真谈判、与乌克兰达成和平，就必须彻底重构权力架构。据接近克里姆林宫的人士透露，这可能包括解散现政府。总理米哈伊尔·米舒斯京的处境已岌岌可危：其亲信近期接连成为刑事案件被告。

We will never know what might have happened. On Feb. 28, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli attack; in the days that followed, everything changed. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel and, in a major reversal, the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil. Demand soared for Russian fertilizer as the world reeled from disruptions to food supply. All of a sudden, the economic problems bedeviling Russia seemed to evaporate.

我们永远无法知道事情原本可能的走向。2月28日，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在美以联合袭击中身亡；随后几天，局势彻底逆转。油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，美国更是出人意料地解除了对俄罗斯石油的制裁。随着全球因粮食供应中断而动荡，对俄罗斯化肥的需求暴涨。一时间，困扰俄罗斯的经济难题似乎烟消云散。

What’s more, divisions deepened between the United States and its NATO allies, who refused to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump called it a “very foolish mistake.” For Mr. Putin, whose foreign policy has been built around cultivating disorder in the West, this was welcome. Equally important is the absorption of America’s attention in the Middle East, pushing Ukraine far from mind. It’s not just attention that is being diverted: The United States is burning through weaponry and ammunition that could otherwise be sent to Ukraine.

更重要的是，美国与其北约盟友之间的分歧加剧，欧洲国家拒绝向霍尔木兹海峡派遣军舰。特朗普总统称这是“非常愚蠢的错误”。对于以在西方制造混乱为外交政策核心的普京而言，这无疑是利好消息。同样关键的是，美国注意力被中东牢牢吸引，乌克兰问题被抛诸脑后。被转移的不只是注意力：美国正在大量消耗本可援助乌克兰的武器与弹药。

In America, too, the Kremlin spies an advantage. It’s not hard to see how a protracted conflict with Iran could erode Mr. Trump’s political standing and weaken the Republican Party, making the upcoming midterm elections especially precarious. This reinforces Mr. Putin’s conviction about the transience of American politics. Mr. Trump, like any American president, is a temporary figure: A new administration will eventually arrive, potentially with a very different approach to Russia. The war in Iran may hasten that shift. In this view, concessions on Ukraine would be pointless.

克里姆林宫同样看到了美国内部的可乘之机。不难预见，与伊朗的长期冲突可能侵蚀特朗普的政治地位，削弱共和党，让即将到来的中期选举充满变数。这进一步强化了普京的判断：美国政治具有高度不稳定性。与历任美国总统一样，特朗普只是过渡性人物，新政府迟早上台，对俄政策可能截然不同。伊朗战争可能加速这一更迭。在这种逻辑下，在乌克兰问题上做出让步毫无意义。

These are all considerable boons for the Kremlin. But the money now flooding into Russia is by no means a guarantee that Mr. Putin will be able to continue the war indefinitely. On the contrary, some close to the government believe that the current situation will be short-lived. By May, many in Moscow expect, the war in Iran could be over and sanctions against Russia reinstated. For the troubled Russian economy, there is no permanent salvation.

这一切对克里姆林宫而言都是重大利好。但涌入俄罗斯的资金绝不能保证普京能够无限期延续战争。相反，一些接近政府的人士认为，当前局面只不会持续太久。莫斯科许多人预计，到5月，伊朗战争可能结束，对俄制裁或将重新生效。对于陷入困境的俄罗斯经济而言，没有永久的救赎。

The situation inside Russia is becoming turbulent, too. Ahead of parliamentary elections this fall, the Kremlin is in a state of near-paranoid anticipation, nervously flip-flopping on plans to stuff Parliament with veterans and dealing harshly with a pro-regime blogger who publicly turned on Mr. Putin. It has moved to block Telegram, the country’s most widely used messaging platform, while internet outages are becoming increasingly frequent in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The rumors of sweeping government reshuffles have not gone away.

俄罗斯国内局势也日趋动荡。今年秋季议会选举在即，克里姆林宫陷入近乎偏执的焦虑，在议会安插退伍老兵的计划上反复摇摆，对一名公开反水的亲政权博主严厉打压。当局已着手封锁俄罗斯使用最广泛的即时通讯平台Telegram，莫斯科与圣彼得堡的网络中断事件也愈发频繁。政府大规模改组的传言仍未消散。

A level of public discontent that until recently would have been unthinkable is now part of daily life. Before too long, it seems, Mr. Putin will have to make a consequential choice: either agree to some form of de-escalation in Ukraine, potentially including an end to the war, or move in the opposite direction — tightening controls across the board, even to the point of a new mobilization. It’s impossible to predict what decision Mr. Putin will make. But a large factor will be whether America continues in its own war.

不久前还难以想象的民众不满情绪，如今已成为日常生活的一部分。似乎用不了多久，普京就必须做出重大抉择：要么同意乌克兰问题上的某种缓和方案，甚至可能结束战争；要么走向相反方向——全面收紧管控，甚至启动新一轮动员。无法预测普京会做何决定，但美国是否继续深陷伊朗战争将是一个重要的影响因素。

Hundreds of oil tankers are idling at either end of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, responding to attacks by the United States and Israel, has effectively blockaded it.

数百艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡的两侧停航滞航观望。伊朗已实际封锁了该海峡，以回应美国和以色列的袭击。

As soaring oil prices rattle the global economy, President Trump has vowed to reopen the shipping route “one way or another.” But short of a deal with Iran or a dangerous, prolonged occupation, experts warn, it will be hard to fully restore traffic in the strait.

随着油价飙升震动全球经济，特朗普总统誓言“无论如何”要重新开放这条航道。但专家警告，除非与伊朗达成协议，或采取危险且漫长的占领行动，否则难以完全恢复海峡的通航。

Here’s why.

原因如下。

Geography is strategy

地理即战略

The strait is narrow and shallow, forcing ships within miles of Iran’s mountainous shores, a landscape that favors asymmetric warfare tactics, in which Iran uses weapons that are small, widely dispersed and hard for adversaries to eliminate completely.

霍尔木兹海峡狭窄而水浅，迫使船只行驶在距伊朗多山海岸线仅数英里的范围内。这种地形有利于非对称作战战术，即伊朗可以使用广泛分布且难以被对手完全清除的小型武器。

Sources: GEBCO (water depth); Vantor (satellite imagery). The New York Times

“The Iranians have thought a lot about how to utilize the geography to their benefit,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies Gulf security issues.

Ripe, creamy avocados are great on toast, salads and burgers, or just sprinkled with salt. Plus, they’re healthy — but how healthy?

软熟的牛油果口感绵密，非常适合搭配吐司、沙拉和汉堡，或者简单撒点盐直接食用。而且它们对健康有益——但究竟有多健康呢？

“Avocados are no regular fruits,” said Dr. Frank Hu, a professor of nutrition and epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “They’re nutrient dense with very little carbohydrates and high amounts of healthy fats and fiber.” And they make plant-based meals more filling.

“牛油果可不是普通水果，”哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院营养与流行病学教授胡丙长博士说，“它们营养密度高，碳水化合物含量很低，同时富含健康脂肪和膳食纤维。”此外，它们还能让植物性饮食更具饱腹感。

Here are some of their healthiest attributes, plus a selection of recipes from New York Times Cooking to inspire you to eat them more often.

以下是牛油果的一些主要益处，以及《纽约时报》美食栏目精选的几道食谱，或许能激发你多吃牛油果。

Avocados can help keep your cholesterol in check.

牛油果有助于平衡胆固醇。

Avocados’ better-known benefits stem from their heart-healthy fats, said Elizabeth Klingbeil, a registered dietitian and assistant professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Most of the fats in avocados are monounsaturated, which differ from the saturated fats abundant in meats and dairy.

注册营养师、得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校助理教授伊丽莎白·克林贝尔表示，牛油果最广为人知的益处来自其对心脏有益的脂肪。牛油果中的脂肪大多是单不饱和脂肪，与肉类和乳制品中富含的饱和脂肪不同。

“Saturated fats can gunk up your blood vessels and increase your heart disease risk,” Dr. Klingbeil said. If left unchecked, this gunk, called LDL or “bad” cholesterol, can lead to heart attacks or strokes.

“饱和脂肪酸会使血管堵塞，增加患心脏病的风险，”克林贝尔博士说。如果任其发展，这种被称为低密度脂蛋白（即“坏胆固醇”）的物质可能导致心脏病发作或中风。

While saturated fats increase LDL cholesterol, unsaturated fats can lower it. For this reason, avocados can help manage blood cholesterol levels, especially when you eat them in place of foods like meat, cheese and butter.

饱和脂肪会增加低密度脂蛋白胆固醇，不饱和脂肪则能降低它。因此，牛油果有助于控制血液中的胆固醇水平，尤其是在你用它替代肉类、奶酪和黄油等食物的时候。

They may lower your heart disease risk.

它们或许还能降低患心脏病的风险。

In a study that followed more than 110,000 adults over 30 years, Dr. Hu and his colleagues showed that people who ate at least two servings of avocado per week had a 21 percent lower risk of coronary heart disease.

在一项追踪超过11万名成年人长达30年的研究中，胡博士及其同事发现，每周至少食用两份牛油果梨的人患冠状动脉疾病的风险降低了21%。

The researchers used statistics to account for other factors that could have affected people’s heart health. Still, Dr. Hu said, it’s impossible to say if avocados directly reduced the risk.

研究人员通过统计方法排除了其他可能影响心脏健康的因素。不过，胡博士表示，仍无法断定牛油果是否直接降低了这一风险。

Bobbi Lin for The New York Times

Zeroing in on one food as the cause of health outcomes is challenging, explained Dr. Martin Kohlmeier, a professor at the University of North Carolina Nutrition Research Institute.

There are two obvious reasons to have a nuclear weapon. The first is to dominate or overawe your nonnuclear-armed neighbors, to make them submit to you because they fear incineration at your hands. The second is defensive — to deter a more powerful enemy from attacking you, to persuade them that the price of their victory will be too awful to be borne.

拥核的理由显而易见，主要有两点。其一是为了支配或震慑无核邻国，让它们因惧怕被你毁灭，从而俯首称臣。其二则是出于防御目的——威慑更强大的敌人不敢发动攻击，让对方明白，胜利的代价将惨烈到无法承受。

The American and Israeli war against Iran is motivated by a fear of the first scenario — a Middle East remade by Iranian nuclear blackmail. But the conflict to date has made the second scenario more relevant, by demonstrating that Iran already possesses a kind of nuclear-esque deterrent, a credible threat of mass destruction that may place limits on what its opponents can reasonably risk.

美国与以色列对伊朗发动的战争，正是出于担忧第一种局面出现：一个被伊朗核讹诈重塑的中东。但迄今为止的冲突反而让第二种情景更具现实意义，它表明伊朗已然拥有一种类核威慑力，一种足以造成大规模毁灭的可信威胁，这可能会限制其对手所能承担的合理风险。

Unlike North Korea, the Iranian regime does not have a brace of nuclear warheads with which to keep America at bay. But it has an escalatory power that was unavailable to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi in their fateful conflicts with the United States. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting damage to global energy markets, is the first great escalatory move. The threat to go all out to destroy the larger infrastructure of the Persian Gulf, from refineries to desalinization plants, is the second — usable only in extremis, as an act of murder-suicide, but still a potent threat from a regime facing existential defeat.

与朝鲜不同，伊朗政权并未拥有足以让美国不敢轻举妄动的核弹头储备。但它拥有萨达姆·侯赛因与穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲在与美国的决定性冲突中所不具备的升级能力。封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并由此重创全球能源市场，这是伊朗第一个重大升级举措。威胁全力摧毁波斯湾地区从炼油厂到海水淡化厂的大型基础设施则是第二个——这一手段仅会在绝境中使用，近乎同归于尽的自杀式行为，但对于一个面临存亡危机的政权而言，仍是极具威力的威胁。

The central problem with our strategy is that it has placed the Iranian government in exactly that kind of existentially threatened position, through a decapitation campaign designed to create regime change, without yet delivering the desired political revolution. So long as the regime survives and the war continues, the Iranian government can make unusually credible apocalyptic threats, because we ourselves have put them in a position in which apocalyptic moves are rational.

我们当前战略的核心问题在于，它已将伊朗政府置于这种生死存亡的境地。我们旨在实现政权更迭的斩首行动未能达成预期的政治革命。只要伊朗政权存续、战争仍在持续，伊朗政府就能发出异常可信的末日式威胁，因为正是我们自己，将他们逼到了即使采取此类极端行动也显得合乎理性的地步。

This was not the case with earlier U.S. strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. It wouldn’t be the case if we were merely striking its military infrastructure. But it is an inevitable consequence of leading with decapitation efforts, which leaves the targeted regime with every incentive to make extreme, even nuclear-scale moves that would be irrational in other contexts.

美国此前针对伊朗核计划的打击并非如此，若我们仅打击其军事基础设施，也不会出现这种局面。但以斩首行动为先导，必然会导致这一结果——它让被打击的政权有充分动机采取极端行动，甚至堪比核规模的行动，而这样的行动在其他情境下本是不理性的。

There are limits, of course, to the nuclear analogy. Iran’s ability to wreak havoc does not depend upon a single weapon used for instantaneous destruction but on a set of distributed capacities with compounding effects, from the missile launchers required to target its gulf neighbors to the physical control of territory around the Strait of Hormuz.

当然，这种类核类比存在局限。伊朗制造大混乱的能力并非依赖单一武器实现瞬间毁灭，而是依托一系列分散部署、效果叠加的能力，从可打击海湾邻国的导弹发射装置，到对霍尔木兹海峡周边领土的实际控制。

The Hormuz weapon takes time to make itself felt, the missile launchers are vulnerable to air power, and so the potency of the Iranian deterrent can be reduced by attrition. Weaponry can be destroyed and territory can be captured, and at some point a combination of nonexistential military moves could theoretically make the existential threat more manageable, mitigate the potential economic damage and reduce Iran’s escalatory power. (All while leaving open the hope that regime change could come to fruition along the way.)

霍尔木兹这一武器的威力需要时间显现，导弹发射装置也易受空中打击，因此伊朗的威慑力可以通过消耗战来削弱。武器准备可被摧毁，领土可被占领。理论上，通过一系列非致命性军事行动的组合或许能在某一节点让这种生存威胁变得更可控，减轻潜在经济损失，并削弱伊朗的升级能力。（同时，仍可寄望于政权更迭能在此过程中实现。）

This is the kind of war some hawks want the Trump administration to fight, with ground troops and expeditionary forces achieving by degrees what can’t be achieved immediately. And, interestingly, there’s a convergence between these hawks and some of the war’s critics, who argue that if the United States doesn’t choose to fight this way — if we don’t have U.S. Marines capturing territory around the strait, if we don’t permanently eliminate the Iranian threat to set the Persian Gulf ablaze — then we will have to accept an epochal defeat, in which Iran emerges as a new regional hegemon, like Paul Atreides in “Dune” becoming emperor after he threatened to destroy the spice of Arrakis and wreck galactic civilization.

这正是部分鹰派人士希望特朗普政府打的那种战争：动用地面部队与远征军，逐步达成无法一蹴而就的目标。耐人寻味的是，这些鹰派与部分战争批评者的观点不谋而合。后者认为，如果美国不选择这种作战方式——不派海军陆战队夺取海峡周边领土，不彻底消除伊朗点燃波斯湾的威胁——那么我们就将不得不接受一场划时代的失败：届时伊朗将崛起为新的地区霸主，就像《沙丘》中的保罗·阿崔迪，在威胁摧毁厄拉科斯星球的香料、破坏银河文明后登基称帝。

I am somewhat skeptical that Iran is about to have its Paul Atreides moment. No Iranian leader is a psychic messiah figure (to my knowledge), Iran’s conventional forces are hardly an all-conquering army, and geopolitics doesn’t usually work like a science fiction plot device. Everyone knows that Kim Jong-un has the power to set his region ablaze, but that hasn’t made Kim a potential god-emperor of Asia; it just makes the North Korean regime unusually hard to attack.

我对伊朗即将迎来“保罗·阿崔迪时刻”持怀疑态度。据我所知，没有任何伊朗领导人是具有超能力的救世主；伊朗的常规部队远非战无不胜的铁军；地缘政治的运作逻辑通常也不像科幻小说的情节设定。众所周知，金正恩有能力让所在地区陷入火海，但这并未让他成为亚洲的潜在神帝，只是让朝鲜政权变得异常难以攻克。

Similarly, if the United States backs off from the decapitation campaign and returns to diplomacy, Iran’s threats against the region and the global economy will become less credible than they are when it has its back against the wall. America’s conventional military advantage will endure, meaning that we will be able to inflict renewed pain on Iran if it tries to make economic blackmail permanent. And Tehran’s willingness to threaten doomsday against its neighbors is more likely to increase its own long-term isolation than it is to encourage those neighbors to bandwagon with the Islamic republic.

同理，如果美国放弃斩首行动、重返外交轨道，伊朗对地区与全球经济的威胁将不再像其被逼入绝境时那般可行。美国的常规军事优势将持续存在，这意味着若伊朗试图将经济讹诈常态化，我们仍能对其实施新一轮打击。而且，德黑兰动辄以末日威胁邻国的做法更可能加剧其自身的长期孤立，而非促使邻国倒向这个伊斯兰共和国。

Which is not to say the de-escalation will be costless for the United States, or that an armistice short of regime change won’t represent a limited defeat for American power. But contrary to some doomsayers, America is strong enough and insulated enough to absorb a strategic disappointment. And letting President Trump spin that kind of disappointment as a grand success might be acceptable if the alternative isn’t the coup de main he plainly hoped for, but a land war in Asia conducted in the shadow of a global economic rout.

这并非意味着缓和局势对美国来说毫无代价，也并非意味着不导致政权更迭的停战协议不会对美国实力造成有限的打击。。但与一些末日预言者的论调相反，美国足够强大、也具备足够缓冲能力，足以承受一次战略上的失望。而且，如果摆在面前的选项并不是特朗普原本期望的速战速决，而是全球经济崩溃的阴影下的亚洲地面战争，那么，哪怕让特朗普将这种失望包装成巨大的成功或许也未尝不可接受。

South Korea started a nationwide energy-saving campaign on Tuesday, urging people to take shorter showers, ride bicycles for short trips and avoid charging phones and electric vehicles at night.

韩国周二启动了全民节能行动，呼吁民众缩短淋浴时间、短途出行骑自行车，并避免在夜间给手机和电动汽车充电。

Like other nations, South Korea has become increasingly concerned about disruptions to oil and gas supplies because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The country imports all of its oil and gas. Nearly 70 percent of its crude oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran, until the war brought that tanker traffic to a near standstill.

与其他国家一样，由于美以对伊朗的战争引发的石油和天然气供应中断，韩国的担忧日益加剧。它的石油和天然气全部依赖进口。战前，其近70%的原油供应需经由毗邻伊朗的霍尔木兹海峡运输，而战争几乎使油轮运输陷入停滞。

Rising oil prices and South Korea’s weakening won against the dollar are dealing a double blow to its economy, which depends heavily on its energy-intensive manufacturing industries.

油价上涨以及韩元对美元走弱对严重依赖能源密集型制造业的韩国经济造成了双重打击。

Presiding over a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, President Lee Jae Myung appealed to the public to join a national 12-step drive to save energy. He invoked the patriotism South Koreans showed during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, when families sold necklaces and other gold jewelry to help raise badly needed hard currency, and during the pandemic, when people faithfully followed government-imposed social distancing and Covid testing rules.

韩国总统李在明在周二主持内阁会议时，呼吁公众加入一个包含了12项措施的全民节能行动。他提及韩国民众在上世纪90年代末亚洲金融危机期间表现出的爱国精神——当时许多家庭出售项链等黄金饰品帮助国家筹集急需的硬通货；以及在疫情期间，人们严格遵守政府实施的社交距离和核酸检测规定。

“We desperately need the cooperation from the people,” he said. “We can surely overcome this crisis if we put our minds together.”

“我们迫切需要民众的配合，”他说。“只要大家齐心协力，我们一定能够渡过这场危机。”

The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment encouraged people to use washing machines and vacuum cleaners only on weekends, to switch to energy-efficient home appliances and lighting, and to use public transportation as much as possible. Such steps were voluntary.

韩国的气候能源环境部还鼓励民众仅在周末使用洗衣机和吸尘器，改用节能家电和照明设备，并尽可能多地使用公共交通。这些措施均为自愿性质。

For its part, the government said it would require all agencies to operate their vehicles only four out of five workdays. (For instance, government cars with license plate numbers that end with a 1 or 6 will be taken off the road on Mondays.)

韩国政府表示，将要求所有政府机构的公车在每周的五个工作日中仅四天上路。（例如，车牌尾号为1或6的公务车将在周一禁行。）

It asked the public to do the same, adding that restrictions on private vehicles could become mandatory should the energy crisis worsen.

政府还呼吁公众也采取类似做法，并表示如果能源危机进一步恶化，可能会对私家车实施强制性限制。

The government also said it would accelerate work on five of the 10 nuclear power plants currently under maintenance so they could restart them earlier. (It has 16 others operating now.)

政府同时表示，将加快目前处于维护状态的10座核电站中的五座的检修进度，以便及早重启。（目前还有另外16座在运行。）

Businesses were also asked to come up with conservation measures, such as turning office lights off during lunch breaks and encouraging workers to use the stairs instead of elevators.

政府还要求企业提出节能措施，例如在午休期间关闭办公室照明，并鼓励员工走楼梯取代乘坐电梯。

The government placed price caps on gasoline, diesel and heating kerosene on March 13 — the first time in 30 years. It also promised to create a supplementary budget worth $16.5 billion to ease the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and high oil prices, particularly on low-income households.

政府于3月13日对汽油、柴油和取暖用煤油设定了价格上限——这是30年来首次。政府还承诺将推出一项规模为165亿美元的补充预算，以缓解汇率波动和油价上涨的影响，尤其是对低收入家庭的冲击。

It also planned to distribute cash vouchers to all households to stimulate the local economy.

政府还计划向所有家庭发放现金消费券，以提振内需。

A Russian oil tanker possibly bound for Cuba is highlighting a key U.S. security concern: the communist island’s ties to foreign adversaries who use Cuba to spy on the United States.

一艘可能驶往古巴的俄罗斯油轮正凸显美国的一项重大安全关切：这个共产主义岛国与美国之敌的密切联系，这些国家会利用古巴对美国进行间谍活动。

In an executive order in January, President Trump declared a national emergency and listed several reasons he was acting to choke off Cuba’s oil imports. Near the top was his complaint that the country “blatantly” allows Russia and China to “base sophisticated military and intelligence capabilities” there that threaten U.S. national security.

特朗普总统在1月的行政命令中宣布进入国家紧急状态，并列出了他要切断古巴石油进口的几个理由。其中最主要的一条是他指责该国“公然”允许俄罗斯和中国在那里“部署先进的军事和情报能力”，这威胁到美国的国家安全。

Specifically, the order noted, Cuba “hosts Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility, which tries to steal sensitive national security information of the United States.”

行政命令特别指出，古巴“设有俄罗斯最大海外信号情报设施，该设施试图窃取美国的敏感国家安全信息”。

That is a reference to a Russian facility near Havana, established during the Cold War, that surveilled the United States for decades until it closed almost 25 years ago at a relatively warm moment in U.S.-Russian relations. But as tensions between Washington and Moscow froze over again, in 2014 Russia reopened the site, known as Lourdes.

这指的是哈瓦那附近的一个俄罗斯设施，建立于冷战时期，曾监视美国数十年，直到大约25年前美俄关系相对缓和时关闭。但随着华盛顿和莫斯科的关系再次冻结，2014年俄罗斯重新开放了这个被称为“洛尔德斯”的基地。

Former U.S. officials and experts say the base, which bristles with antennas and other eavesdropping equipment, is less sophisticated than China’s installations in Cuba. But it still puts Russian ears roughly 200 miles from the coast of Florida, which is home to several key U.S. military facilities, including Central Command, which oversees the Middle East; the satellite launchpads of Cape Canaveral; and Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and residence at Palm Beach.

美国前官员和专家表示，这个布满天线和其他窃听设备的基地不像中国在古巴设施那么精良。但它仍将俄罗斯的“耳朵”置于距离佛罗里达海岸约200英里的位置，而佛罗里达拥有多个关键的美国军事设施，包括负责中东事务的中央司令部、卡纳维拉尔角的卫星发射场，以及特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园和棕榈滩住所。

“What an unbelievably rich location,” said Glenn S. Gerstell, a former general counsel for the U.S. National Security Agency. “Who would think that sitting in Cuba you might learn about what we’re doing in the Middle East?”

“这是多么难以置信的绝佳位置啊，”美国国家安全局前总法律顾问格伦·S·格斯特尔说。“谁能想到坐在古巴就能了解到我们在中东的行动？”

Russia, China and Cuba have all denied the presence of foreign spy bases on the island.

俄罗斯、中国和古巴都否认岛上存在外国间谍基地。

Preserving Lourdes may be one reason President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia might risk angering Mr. Trump by shipping oil to Cuba, whose communist government is struggling to sustain the island’s frail economy after Mr. Trump forced its two main petroleum suppliers, Venezuela and Mexico, to halt their shipments earlier this year.

保留洛尔德斯基地可能是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京愿意冒险激怒特朗普、向古巴运送石油的原因之一。古巴的共产主义政府在特朗普今年早些时候迫使其两个主要石油供应国委内瑞拉和墨西哥停止供油后，正艰难维持这个岛国脆弱的经济。

The Kremlin has been coy in response to questions about whether a Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of crude oil across the North Atlantic is headed for Cuba. Analysts say that the ship’s cargo, on pace to arrive by the end of the month, could power the island for weeks.

在回应有关一艘载有73万桶原油、穿越北大西洋的俄罗斯油轮是否驶往古巴的问题时，克里姆林宫的态度暧昧。分析人士表示，该船货物按计划将在本月底前抵达，能够为古巴提供数周的电力。

Mr. Trump has spoken of using his economic leverage to mount a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and is pressing for the ouster of its president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. While Trump officials have not said whether they are demanding that the Cuban government expel Russian and Chinese operatives, Mr. Trump’s executive order indicates that the foreign bases are a high priority.

特朗普曾表示要利用其经济杠杆对古巴进行“友好接管”，并正在施压要求罢免古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔。虽然特朗普政府官员尚未说明是否要求古巴政府驱逐俄罗斯和中国的情报人员，但特朗普的行政命令表明，外国基地是高度优先事项。

And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is spearheading Mr. Trump’s Cuba policy, has long called the bases unacceptable. Asked in a 2016 Republican presidential primary debate to describe a “good” U.S. deal with Cuba, Mr. Rubio said it would mean in part that Havana “kicks out the Russians from Lourdes and kicks out the Chinese listening station in Bejucal.”

负责主导特朗普古巴政策的国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥长期以来一直称这些基地不可接受。在2016年共和党总统初选辩论中，当被问及与古巴达成一项“好的”协议意味着什么时，鲁比奥表示，这在一定程度上意味着哈瓦那“把俄罗斯人从洛尔德斯踢出去，并把中国在贝胡卡尔的监听站也踢出去”。

Bejucal is a hillside town about 20 miles south of Havana, from which satellite dishes can be seen rising from the tropical forest. Aerial photographs published and analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington show a sprawling compound that features large clearings dotted with antennas like candles on a birthday cake, several entrances to underground facilities and a radome, a weatherproof cover that protects sensitive equipment.

贝胡卡尔是哈瓦那以南约20英里的一个山坡小镇，从那里可以看到卫星天线从热带森林中升起。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)发布并分析的卫星图片显示，这是一个庞大的园区，里面有大片空地，点缀着像生日蛋糕上的蜡烛一样的天线，还有几个通往地下设施的入口，以及一个雷达罩——一种保护敏感设备的防风雨外壳。

2024年，位于哈瓦那以南的玛雅贝克省贝胡卡尔。

One of four suspected Chinese listening posts in Cuba, the Bejucal base was built more than a decade ago but has undergone recent improvements. After disclosures by The Wall Street Journal in 2023, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken confirmed that Beijing had upgraded the site in 2019, adding that the Biden administration had taken a “more direct” diplomatic approach on the matter in response.

作为古巴四个疑似中国监听站之一的贝胡卡尔基地于十多年前建成，但最近进行了升级。2023年《华尔街日报》披露后，时任国务卿安东尼·J·布林肯证实，北京在2019年对该站点进行了升级，并表示拜登政府对此采取了“更直接”的外交方式。

There is little evidence that China has backed down, however. At a House Homeland Security subcommittee hearing last year, the chairman, Republican Representative Carlos Gimenez of Florida, called the Chinese sites “one of the most brazen intelligence operations ever attempted near the American mainland.”

然而，几乎没有证据表明中国已经退让。在去年众议院国土安全小组委员会的听证会上，委员会主席、佛罗里达州共和党众议员卡洛斯·希门尼斯称这些中国站点是“有史以来美国本土附近进行的最大胆的情报行动之一”。

Mr. Gimenez added that a U.S. military training range in Florida, which he did not name, was “the only training range that actually can simulate battle in the Taiwan Straits” and therefore a prime target of Chinese interest.

希门尼斯还说，佛罗里达州的一个美国军事训练场（他未透露名称）是“唯一能够模拟台湾海峡实战的训练场”，因此成为中国关注的首要目标。

Ryan Berg, a co-author of the Center for Strategic and International Studies report, noted at the hearing that China — which is trying to catch up with a U.S. advantage in space rocket technology — would also have a strong interest in tracking satellite launches from Cape Canaveral.

战略与国际研究中心报告的合著者瑞安·伯格在听证会上指出，中国正试图赶超美国在太空火箭技术上的优势，因此对跟踪卡纳维拉尔角的卫星发射也会有强烈兴趣。

Other U.S. sites probably targeted by the Chinese from Cuba, according to discussions at the hearing, include the headquarters of U.S. Southern Command, which is near Miami and oversees military operations in South America.

根据听证会上的讨论，中国从古巴可能瞄准的其他美国目标还包括美国南方司令部的总部，该司令部位于迈阿密附近，负责南美洲的军事行动。

This is not the first time Bejucal has been a fixation for U.S. security officials. In October 1962, American spy planes buzzed the area after identifying its underground concrete bunkers as a likely storage site for Soviet nuclear warheads — the trigger for the Cuban Missile Crisis.

这并非贝胡卡尔第一次成为美国安全官员关注的焦点。1962年10月，美国间谍飞机在发现其地下混凝土掩体可能用于存放苏联核弹头后，对该地区进行了低空侦察——这正是古巴导弹危机的导火索。

But some analysts downplayed the threat of the foreign bases in Cuba, especially Lourdes. One former career U.S. intelligence official said they were not a top priority during his tenure. He also noted that even if Mr. Trump succeeded in forcing the Russian and Chinese bases to shut down, those countries would still operate diplomatic facilities on the island, which would most likely teem with covert eavesdropping equipment.

但一些分析人士对古巴外国基地的威胁不以为然，尤其是洛尔德斯基地。一位美国前职业情报官员表示，在他任职期间，这些基地并非工作重点。他还指出，即使特朗普成功迫使俄罗斯和中国的基地关闭，这些国家仍将在岛上保留外交设施，这些设施很可能布满秘密窃听设备。

William LeoGrande, a Latin America specialist at American University who has been critical of Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach to Cuba, said he was skeptical of the foreign intelligence threat from the island. Mr. LeoGrande said he has been told that the Russian base at Lourdes is “obsolete,” and questioned whether China’s outposts were as threatening as advertised. “It’s a predicate for saying Cuba’s a threat,” he said. “It’s a perfect excuse.”

美利坚大学拉丁美洲问题专家威廉·利昂格兰德长期批评特朗普对古巴的对抗性政策，他对来自该岛的外国情报威胁表示怀疑。利昂格兰德说，有人告诉他俄罗斯在洛尔德斯的基地已经“过时”，并质疑中国的哨站是否像宣传的那样具有威胁性。“这是说古巴构成威胁的一个前提，”他说。“这是一个完美的借口。”

Mr. Gerstell noted that spy equipment does not need to be state of the art to be effective. Even in an age of fiber optics and ultrapowerful satellites, local antennas are still “surprisingly relevant,” he said, adding that they can often pick up signals like walkie-talkie and other radio chatter more clearly than more advanced but more distant methods.

格斯特尔指出，间谍设备并不需要是最先进的才能发挥作用。即使在光纤和超强卫星的时代，本地天线仍然“惊人地有效”，他说，它们往往能比更先进但距离更远的方法更清晰地捕捉到对讲机和其他无线电通话。

Cuba has benefited financially from hosting China and Russia over the years, which in return have reportedly paid Havana or forgiven its debts to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.

这些年来，古巴通过为中国和俄罗斯设施提供场地在经济上获益，作为回报，据报道两国向哈瓦那提供了资金或减免了其债务，总额达数百亿美元。

The three countries are united by their history of communism, even if Russia has abandoned that Soviet-era political model, and a common rivalry with the United States. After Fidel Castro overthrew his island’s dictatorship in 1959, Moscow became the island’s main patron.

这三个国家因共产主义历史而团结在一起——尽管俄罗斯已放弃了苏联时代的政治模式，并且有着美国这个共同的敌手。1959年菲德尔·卡斯特罗推翻岛上独裁政权后，莫斯科成为古巴的主要支持者。

The Lourdes base would become a major irritant for American officials. During a 1983 Oval Office address on the Soviet threat, President Ronald Reagan singled out the base, displaying declassified aerial photos of the facility and calling it “the largest of its kind in the world,” with a contingent of 1,500 Soviet technicians.

洛尔德斯基地后来成为美国官员的一大心病。1983年，里根总统在椭圆形办公室发表关于苏联威胁的讲话时，专门点名该基地，并展示了已解密的设施航拍照片，称它是“世界上此类设施最大的”，驻有1500名苏联技术人员。

After the Cold War’s end, relations between Washington and Moscow warmed, and a cash-strapped Kremlin scaled back its global reach. In October 2001, Mr. Putin announced that Russia would close the Lourdes base.

冷战结束后，华盛顿与莫斯科的关系升温，资金拮据的克里姆林宫缩减了全球布局。2001年10月，普京宣布俄罗斯将关闭洛尔德斯基地。

“This decision is another indication that the Cold War is over,” President George W. Bush said then in a statement. “President Putin understands that Russia and America are no longer adversaries.”

“这一决定再次表明冷战已经结束，”当时的总统乔治·W·布什在一份声明中说。“普京总统明白，俄罗斯和美国不再是对手。”

Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, ​said American attacks on Iran justified his decision to expand his country’s nuclear arsenal despite international sanctions, state media reported on Tuesday.

据朝鲜官方媒体周二报道，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩表示，美国对伊朗的袭击证明，他不顾国际制裁、执意扩大本国核武库的决定是正当的。

Mr. Kim said that the war in the Middle East, which began with the United States and Israel bombing Iran last month, showed that only strong military power would make his country safe in ​a world ​shaped by President Trump​’s foreign policy.​ He delivered a lengthy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s rubber-stamp legislature in Pyongyang​, on Monday, ​in which he reiterated hostility toward South Korea and vowed to strengthen his country’s nuclear force to deter Washington.

金正恩称，上月美以联手轰炸伊朗引发的中东战争表明，在特朗普总统的外交政策所塑造的世界格局中，唯有强大的军事实力才能保障朝鲜安全。周一，他在位于平壤的朝鲜橡皮图章式立法机构最高人民会议发表了长篇讲话，会上重申了对韩国的敌对立场，并发誓强化本国核力量以威慑美国。

​In his speech​, the text of which was released on Tuesday, Mr. Kim said one of the best decisions he ​had made following the ​breakdown of talks with Mr. Trump in 2019 was to double down on expanding his nuclear arsenal.​ Since then, Mr. Kim has ​urged his country ​both to build a “self-reliant economy” ​capable of endur​ing sanctions ​and to make more nuclear warheads ​along with a wider range of ​delivery missiles.

讲话全文于周二对外公布，金正恩在讲话中表示，2019年与特朗普的谈判破裂后，他做出的最正确的决定之一就是加倍努力推进核武库扩张。自那以后，金正恩一方面推动朝鲜打造能够承受制裁的“自力更生经济”，另一方面推动本国生产更多核弹头，以及射程更广的各类投送导弹。

Mr. Kim did not mention Iran by name in his speech​. But he said that “acts of terror and aggression that the United States is committing throughout the world”​ fully justified his pursuit of a nuclear arsenal. The security ​afforded by those weapons ​had also freed up resources ​for economic development in North Korea in recent years, he said.

金正恩在讲话中并未点名提及伊朗，但他表示，“美国正在世界各地实施国家恐怖袭击与侵略行径”充分证明了他发展核武库的合理性。他还称，近年来，核武器带来的安全保障也为朝鲜的经济发展释放了资源。

Here are key​ excerpts from his speech, which was full of self-congratulation.

以下是他这篇充满自夸的讲话的核心节选：

• “Today’s reality clearly demonstrates the legitimacy of our nation’s strategic choice and decision to reject the enemies’ sweet talk and permanently secure our nuclear arsenal.”

· “如今的现实清晰证明，我国拒绝敌人的花言巧语、永久确保核武库这一战略抉择与决定，是完全正当合理的。”

• “I affirm that our nation is no longer a country under threat​ — we ​now possess the power to pose a threat if necessary. The solid construction of the nuclear shield firmly guarantees and drives the development of all sectors of the country, including the economy and culture, as well as the improvement of the people’s lives.”

· “我在此申明，我国已不再是受威胁的国家——必要时，我们拥有构成威慑的能力。核盾牌的坚实构建，有力保障并推动了我国经济、文化等各领域的发展，以及人民生活水平的提高。”

• “The dignity of the state, national interests, and ultimate victory are guaranteed only by the strongest power. Our government will continue to resolutely solidify its status as a nuclear power.”

·“国家的尊严、国益、最后的胜利都只能靠最强的力量来获得保障。我国政府将继续坚定不移地巩固自身核大国地位。”

• “We will recognize South Korea as the most hostile state, deal with it by thoroughly rejecting and ignoring it through the clearest words and actions, and make South Korea pay the price mercilessly for any actions that touch our republic, without the slightest hesitation or consideration.”

·“认定韩国为最敌对的国家，并以最明确的言辞和行动彻底拒绝和无视它，对于韩国任何侵犯我们共和国的行为，都将毫不犹豫、毫不迟疑、毫不留情地让其付出代价。”

For decades, Washington and its allies have used both ​sanctions and incentives​ to persuade North Korea to ​abandon its nuclear weapons program. ​All such efforts have failed.

数十年来，美国及其盟友一直通过制裁与利诱双管齐下的方式，试图说服朝鲜放弃核武器计划。但所有此类努力均以失败告终。

Since his return to the White House, Mr. Trump has expressed an interest in meeting Mr. Kim again​; however, the North Korean leader ​has said that talks ​are possible only ​if Washington ​formally recognizes his country as a nuclear power.​ North Korea has long ​maintained that both Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and Saddam Hussein of Iraq would not have met their​ fates had they possessed a nuclear deterrent.

特朗普重返白宫后，曾表示有意与金正恩再次会面；但这位朝鲜领导人已明确表示，唯有华盛顿正式承认朝鲜的核大国地位，双方才有可能举行会谈。朝鲜长期以来一直坚称，倘若拥有核威慑力量，利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲与伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛因就不会落得最终的下场。

The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.

据两名了解相关外交情况的官员表示，美国已向伊朗递交了一份结束中东战争的15点计划，这反映出特朗普政府正急于寻求摆脱冲突的出路，以应对战争带来的经济影响。

It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.

目前尚不清楚这份通过巴基斯坦传递的计划在伊朗官员中的传阅范围，也不清楚伊朗是否可能接受该计划作为谈判基础。同样不清楚的是，一直与美国联合轰炸伊朗的以色列是否支持该提议。

But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.

但该方案的递交表明，美国政府正加大力度结束这场已进入第四周、波及多个国家的战争。

The New York Times did not see a copy of the plan, but the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details, shared some of its broad outlines, saying that it addresses Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

《纽约时报》未能看到该方案的文本，但这些因涉及敏感信息而要求匿名的官员透露了一些大致内容，称其涉及伊朗的弹道导弹和核计划。

Israel and the United States have targeted Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers and production facilities, and its nuclear program in the bombing campaign that began on Feb. 28. American and Israeli leaders have vowed never to allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.

自2月28日开始轰炸行动以来，以色列和美国一直以伊朗的弹道导弹、发射装置、生产设施以及核计划为打击目标。美以领导人誓言绝不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。

But Iran has continued to fire missiles at Israel and neighboring Arab countries and still holds 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in its territory.

但伊朗仍在持续向以色列及邻近阿拉伯国家发射导弹，其境内仍拥有440公斤高浓缩铀。

The plan also discusses maritime routes, one of the officials said. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has effectively blocked most Western ships from safely passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway in and out of the Persian Gulf, cutting the global supply of oil and natural gas, and sending the prices soaring.

其中一名官员表示，该方案还涉及海上通道问题。自战争爆发以来，伊朗已成功阻止大多数西方船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡——这一进出波斯湾的战略水道，切断了全球石油和天然气的供应，导致价格飙升。

For now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently; Israeli officials have said they expect it to continue for weeks. In a statement, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, acknowledged diplomacy was underway, but said, “As President Trump and his negotiators explore this newfound possibility of diplomacy, Operation Epic Fury continues unabated to achieve the military objectives laid out by the commander inchief and the Pentagon.”

目前尚无迹象表明战争会在短期内缓和；以色列官员表示，预计冲突还将持续数周。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中承认外交努力正在推进，但表示：“在特朗普总统及其谈判团队探索这一新的外交可能性的同时，‘史诗愤怒行动’ 将继续全力推进，以实现总司令和五角大楼设定的军事目标。”

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.

两名知情官员还表示，巴基斯坦陆军元帅、陆军参谋长赛义德·阿西姆·穆尼尔已成为美伊之间的关键中间人，埃及和土耳其也在鼓励伊朗进行建设性接触。据信，穆尼尔元帅与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队关系密切，这使他能够在交战双方之间传递信息。

拉合尔一块广告牌上的巴基斯坦陆军元帅、陆军参谋长赛义德·阿西姆·穆尼尔，他已成为伊朗与美国之间的主要中间人。

He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.

据一位伊朗官员和一位巴基斯坦官员称，穆尼尔最近联系了伊朗议会议长、前革命卫队指挥官穆罕默德·巴吉尔·卡利巴夫，提议由巴基斯坦主办伊朗与美国之间的会谈。这两位官员因讨论敏感信息而要求匿名。

Field Marshal Munir met twice in 2025 with President Trump, who has showered praise on him, saying he was his “favorite field marshal.”

穆尼尔元帅曾在2025年两次与特朗普总统会面，特朗普对他大加赞赏，称他为“我最喜欢的元帅”。

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan wrote on social media that his country “fully supports ongoing efforts to pursue dialogue to end” the war in the Middle East.

周二，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫在社交媒体上写道，巴基斯坦“完全支持通过对话结束中东战争的持续努力”。

“Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict,” he wrote.

他写道：“在美国和伊朗同意的前提下，巴基斯坦已做好准备并深感荣幸，愿作为东道主，为推动达成全面解决当前冲突的有意义且具决定性的会谈提供便利。”

Iran may have trouble delivering a quick response to American outreach. Senior Iranian officials have been struggling to communicate internally and they worry that Israel could bomb them if they meet in person, the officials added.

官员们补充称，伊朗可能难以及时回应美方的接触。伊朗高级官员在内部沟通上正面临困难，并担心一旦面对面会谈，以色列可能对其发动袭击。

On the first day of the war, Israel struck an Iranian leadership compound in Tehran, killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many other top officials. Who now holds the power to make decisions on diplomacy, war and peace remains to be seen.

战争爆发首日，以色列袭击了德黑兰的一处伊朗领导层设施，造成伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名高层官员身亡。目前谁掌握着有关外交、战争与和平的决策权仍有待观察。

But the eagerness of the White House to negotiate suggests that Mr. Trump would be willing to leave the current regime in place, at least for now, albeit in a weakened and more pliant state. He and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have vacillated on whether their demands for the war included regime change.

但白宫急于谈判的态度表明，特朗普可能愿意暂时保留现政权，尽管其将处于更为虚弱、更加顺从的状态。他与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在是否将“政权更迭”列为战争目标的问题上一直摇摆不定。

Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing President Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign presents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East, according to people briefed by American officials on the conversations.

数名知情人士透露，在过去一周的一系列谈话中，沙特阿拉伯实际领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储一直在敦促特朗普总统继续对伊朗的战争，他认为，美以军事行动为重塑中东提供了一个“历史性机遇”。这些知情人士是通过美方官员了解到这些对话的。

In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar with the conversations said.

知情人士说，穆罕默德王储向特朗普传达的信息是：必须坚持彻底摧毁伊朗的强硬派政府。

Prince Mohammed, the people familiar with the discussions said, has argued that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Gulf that can only be eliminated by getting rid of the government.

熟悉讨论内容的人士表示，穆罕默德王储认为，伊朗对海湾地区构成长期威胁，只有推翻其政府才能消除这一威胁。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel also views Iran as a long-term threat, but analysts say Israeli officials would probably view a failed Iranian state that is too caught up in internal turmoil to menace Israel as a win, while Saudi Arabia views a failed state in Iran as a grave and direct security threat.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡同样将伊朗视为长期威胁，但分析人士指出，以色列官员可能认为，一个陷入严重内乱而无力威胁以色列的失败伊朗政权就是胜利；而沙特阿拉伯则认为伊朗成为失败国家将构成严重而直接的安全威胁。

But senior officials in both the Saudi and American governments worry that if the conflict drags on, Iran could deliver ever more punishing attacks on Saudi oil installations and the United States could be stuck in an endless war.

然而，沙特和美国两国政府的高级官员都担心，如果冲突持续下去，伊朗可能对沙特石油设施发动更具破坏性的袭击，而美国则可能陷入一场无休止的战争。

In public, Mr. Trump has swung wildly between suggesting that the war could end soon and signaling it would escalate. On Monday, the president posted on social media that his administration and Iran had held “productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities,” though Iran disputed the idea that negotiations were underway.

在公开场合，特朗普在“战争可能很快结束”和“战争将会升级”之间大幅摇摆。周一，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他的政府与伊朗进行了“富有成效的对话，讨论全面彻底解决敌对状态”，但伊朗否认正在进行谈判。

The consequences of the war for Saudi Arabia’s economy and national security are enormous. Iranian drone and missile attacks, launched in response to the American-Israeli assault on Iran, have already created huge disruptions in the oil market.

这场战争对沙特阿拉伯的经济和国家安全影响巨大。作为对美以袭击伊朗的回应，伊朗发射的无人机和导弹已对石油市场造成严重扰乱。

Saudi officials rejected the idea that Prince Mohammed has pushed to prolong the war.

沙特官员否认穆罕默德王储曾推动延长战争。

“The kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began,” the Saudi government said in a statement, noting that officials “remain in close contact with the Trump administration and our commitment remains unchanged.”

沙特政府在一份声明中表示：“沙特阿拉伯王国始终支持和平解决这场冲突，甚至在冲突开始之前就是如此。”声明指出，沙特官员“与特朗普政府保持密切联系，我们的立场没有改变”。

“Our primary concern today is to defend ourselves from the daily attacks on our people and our civilian infrastructure,” the government added. “Iran has chosen dangerous brinkmanship over serious diplomatic solutions. This harms every stakeholder involved but none more than Iran itself.”

声明还补充说：“我们目前最关心的是保护自己免受针对我国人民和民用基础设施的日常袭击。伊朗选择了危险的边缘政策，而不是严肃的外交解决方案。这伤害了所有相关方，但受损最严重的正是伊朗自身。”

Mr. Trump has at times seemed open to winding down the war, but Prince Mohammed has argued that would be a mistake, the people briefed on the conversations said, and has pressed for attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure to weaken the government in Tehran.

熟悉对话内容的人士表示，特朗普有时似乎愿意结束战争，但穆罕默德王储认为这将是错误之举，并敦促对伊朗能源基础设施发动攻击，以削弱德黑兰政府。

This article is based on interviews with people who have had conversations with American officials, and who described the discussions on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of Mr. Trump’s talks with world leaders. The New York Times interviewed people with a variety of views on the wisdom of continuing the war and of Prince Mohammed’s role in advising Mr. Trump.

本文基于对曾与美国官员交谈的人士的采访，他们因特朗普与各国领导人谈话的敏感性而要求匿名。《纽约时报》采访的人士立场各异，他们对是否应继续战争，以及穆罕默德王储在向特朗普提供建议方面扮演了何种角色，各自持有不同的看法。

本月无人机袭击后，卫星图像显示沙特阿拉伯拉斯塔努拉炼油厂冒出浓烟。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “does not comment on the president’s private conversations.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，政府“不对总统的私下谈话发表评论”。

Prince Mohammed, an authoritarian royal who has led a sustained crackdown on dissent, is respected by Mr. Trump and has previously influenced the president’s decision-making. Prince Mohammed has argued that the United States should consider putting troops in Iran to seize energy infrastructure and force the government out of power, according to the people briefed by U.S. officials.

穆罕默德是一名推行持续镇压异见人士的威权王储，深受特朗普尊重，并曾多次影响美国总统的决策。据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，穆罕默德王储主张美国应考虑派兵进入伊朗，夺取能源基础设施并迫使伊朗政府下台。

In recent days, Mr. Trump has given more serious consideration to a military operation to seize Kharg Island, the hub of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Such an operation, with airborne Army forces or an amphibious assault by Marines, would be immensely dangerous.

最近几天，特朗普已开始认真考虑对伊朗石油基础设施枢纽——哈尔克岛发动军事行动。这样一场行动——无论是陆军空降部队还是海军陆战队两栖突击——都将极其危险。

But Prince Mohammed has advocated ground operations in his conversations with Mr. Trump, according to people briefed by American officials.

但据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，穆罕默德王储在与特朗普的谈话中主张进行地面作战。

The Saudi views of the war are shaped by economic factors as much as political ones. Since the war began, Iran’s retaliatory attacks have largely choked off the Strait of Hormuz, hobbling the region’s energy industry. The vast majority of Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti oil must pass through the strait to reach international markets.

沙特对这场战争的看法受经济因素的影响与政治因素同样大。自战争爆发以来，伊朗的报复性袭击已基本封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，使该地区能源产业陷入瘫痪。沙特、阿联酋和科威特绝大部分石油都必须通过该海峡才能进入国际市场。

While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have built pipelines to circumvent the strait, those alternative routes have come under attack as well.

虽然沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋已修建了绕过海峡的管道，但这些替代路线也遭到了袭击。

Analysts familiar with Saudi government thinking say that while Prince Mohammed probably preferred to avoid a war, he is concerned that if Mr. Trump pulls back now, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East will be left to confront an emboldened and furious Iran on their own.

熟悉沙特政府思路的分析人士表示，虽然穆罕默德王储可能原本希望避免战争，但他担心如果特朗普现在退缩，沙特阿拉伯和中东其他国家将不得不独自面对一个更加胆大妄为且愤怒的伊朗。

In this view, they say, a half-finished offensive would expose Saudi Arabia to frequent Iranian attacks. Such a scenario could also leave Iran with the power to periodically close the Strait of Hormuz.

他们认为，半途而废的进攻将使沙特阿拉伯频繁遭受伊朗袭击。这种局面也可能让伊朗保留定期关闭霍尔木兹海峡的能力。

“Saudi officials certainly want the war to end, but how it ends matters,” said Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project for the International Crisis Group.

“沙特官员当然希望战争结束，但如何结束非常重要，”国际危机组织海湾与阿拉伯半岛项目主任亚斯敏·法鲁克说。

A 2019 Iran-backed attack on Saudi oil facilities — which briefly knocked out half of the kingdom’s oil production — pushed the prince to reconsider his antagonistic approach to the Islamic Republic.

2019年伊朗支持的对沙特石油设施的袭击曾短暂导致该国一半石油产量中断，这促使王储重新思考他对伊朗伊斯兰共和国的对抗性政策。

Saudi officials later pursued a diplomatic détente, re-establishing relations with Iran in 2023, in part because they realized that their country’s alliance with the United States offered only partial protection from Iran, Saudi officials have said.

沙特官员后来寻求外交缓和，于2023年与伊朗恢复外交关系，他们曾表示，部分原因在于他们意识到与美国的联盟只能提供部分保护。

Other countries in the region, including the United Arab Emirates, also pursued warmer relations with Iran in the past few years for similar reasons.

该地区其他国家，包括阿拉伯联合酋长国，过去几年也出于类似原因寻求与伊朗改善关系。

After Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war, against the advice of several Gulf governments, Iran responded by shooting thousands of missiles and drones at countries in the region, derailing their efforts to bring Iran into their fold, Gulf officials have said.

在特朗普不顾几个海湾国家政府的劝告决定开战后，伊朗以向该地区各国发射数千枚导弹和无人机作为回应，海湾国家官员表示，这彻底破坏了它们将伊朗拉入阵营的努力。

“What little trust there was before has completely been shattered,” Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, told reporters last week.

“此前仅存的一点信任已完全破裂，”沙特外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉亲王上周对记者说。

本周一遭美以空袭后的德黑兰。

Saudi Arabia has a large stockpile of Patriot interceptors that it is using to protect itself from the barrage of Iranian attacks that have rained down on its oil fields, refineries and cities.

沙特阿拉伯拥有大量“爱国者”拦截导弹库存，目前正用其保护自己免受伊朗对油田、炼油厂和城市发动的密集袭击。

But interceptors are in short supply globally. Drone and missile attacks in Saudi Arabia have already struck a refinery and the U.S. embassy, while fragments from intercepted projectiles have killed two Bangladeshi migrant workers and injured more than a dozen other foreign residents.

但全球拦截导弹供应短缺。在沙特的无人机和导弹袭击已击中一座炼油厂和美国大使馆，而被拦截的导弹碎片已造成两名孟加拉国移民工人死亡，另外还导致十多名外国居民受伤。

Since the beginning of the war, Mr. Netanyahu has pushed for military operations that could force the collapse of Iran’s government. U.S. officials have focused on degrading the country’s missile and naval capabilities and have been more skeptical that the hard-line government in Iran can be driven from power.

自战争开始以来，内塔尼亚胡一直推动可能迫使伊朗政府崩溃的军事行动。而美国官员则更侧重于削弱伊朗的导弹和海军能力，对强硬派政府能否被赶下台持更怀疑的态度。

Though Israeli strikes have killed a large number of leaders, the hard-line government remains in control.

尽管以色列的打击已杀死大量伊朗领导人，但强硬派政府仍掌控局面。

Saudi officials have long expressed concerns that a failed state in Iran poses a grave threat to them, analysts say. They fear that even if Iran’s government fell, elements of the military — or militias that could emerge in the power vacuum — would continue to attack the kingdom and are likely to focus on oil targets.

分析人士表示，沙特官员长期以来一直担心，一个失败的伊朗国家对他们构成严重威胁。他们担心即使伊朗政府倒台，其军队残部或权力真空中新出现的民兵组织仍将继续攻击沙特王国，并很可能将目标锁定在石油设施上。

Some government intelligence analysts have told other officials that they think Prince Mohammed sees the war as an opportunity for him to increase Saudi Arabia’s influence throughout the Middle East, and that he believes Saudi Arabia can protect itself even if the war continues.

一些政府情报分析人士告诉其他官员，他们认为穆罕默德王储将这场战争视为提升沙特阿拉伯在中东影响力的机会，并相信即使战争持续，沙特也有能力保护自己。

In conversations with Prince Mohammed, Mr. Trump has raised worries about the price of oil and the damage it is doing to the economy. The Saudi leader has assured him that is only temporary, according to people briefed by American officials.

在与穆罕默德王储的谈话中，特朗普表达了对油价上涨及其对经济造成损害的担忧。据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，沙特领导人向他保证，这只是暂时的。

But American and regional officials are deeply skeptical that oil markets will quickly recover from the war. Saudi Arabia cannot make up the shortfalls caused by the war because its overland pipeline can only carry a fraction of the oil that normally transits through the Strait of Hormuz, economists say.

但美国和地区官员都深表怀疑，认为石油市场不会很快从战争中恢复。经济学家表示，沙特阿拉伯无法弥补战争造成的石油短缺，因为其陆上管道的输送能力与正常通过霍尔木兹海峡的输送量难以相提并论。

While Saudi Arabia is better positioned than the other Gulf countries to weather the closure of the strait, it could face dire ramifications if the waterway is not reopened soon.

虽然沙特阿拉伯比其他海湾国家更有能力承受海峡关闭，但如果这条水道不能尽快重新开放，它仍将面临严重后果。

Even before the war began, Prince Mohammed was facing serious financial challenges as he approached the 2030 deadline he had set for himself to transform Saudi Arabia into a global business hub. His government is forecasting budget deficits for several years to come as ambitious megaprojects and vast investments in artificial intelligence strain the country’s limited resources.

甚至在战争爆发之前，穆罕默德王储就已面临严重的财政挑战，因为2030年他为自己设定的将沙特转变为全球商业枢纽的期限日益临近。由于雄心勃勃的大型项目和在人工智能领域的大量投资耗费了该国有限的资源，沙特政府预计未来几年将持续出现预算赤字。

A prolonged war with Iran would put all of that at risk. The prince’s success hinges on creating a secure environment for investors and tourists.

一场旷日持久的伊朗战争将使这一切面临风险。王储的成功取决于为投资者和游客创造一个安全的环境。

Asked last week whether the Saudi government preferred an immediate end to the war or a longer conflict in which Iran’s capabilities were degraded, Prince Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, told reporters that the only thing that officials cared about was halting Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries.

上周，当被问及沙特政府是希望战争立即结束，还是进行一场能削弱伊朗能力的较长期冲突时，沙特外交大臣费萨尔亲王对记者表示，官员们唯一关心的是让伊朗停止对沙特阿拉伯和邻国的袭击。

“We’re going to use every lever we have — political, economic, diplomatic and else-wise — to get these attacks to stop,” Prince Faisal said.

“我们将动用一切手段——政治、经济、外交以及其他一切手段——来让这些袭击停止，”费萨尔亲王说。

China’s second-largest city continues to transform rapidly. Beyond luxury megastores and virtual-reality experiences, Shanghai is repurposing what’s left of its unique architectural heritage into cultural and dining destinations, creating a new dynamism. A major transition to electric vehicles has helped quiet the streets, while expanded high-speed rail and metro services have made the city more accessible. Daily life in Shanghai runs almost entirely through apps — for bookings, payments and transport — which offer incredible convenience, but come with a learning curve for travelers. What is easier, however: A new 10-day visa-free transit option for visitors from dozens of countries, including the United States, is one way China is laying out the welcome mat after its border closures during the pandemic.

中国第二大城市上海正持续飞速蜕变。除了奢品旗舰店与虚拟现实体验，这座城市正将留存的独特建筑遗产改造为文化与餐饮地标，焕发出全新活力。电动汽车的大规模普及让街道更安静，不断扩容的高铁与地铁网络也让这座城市的出行更为便捷。在上海，预约、支付、出行等日常生活几乎全靠各类应用软件完成，这带来了极致便利，却也让游客需要一定时间适应。不过，有一项便利门槛极低：疫情封关后，中国正以多项举措向世界张开怀抱，其中就包括针对美国等数十国公民推出的全新10天过境免签政策。

Itinerary

行程安排

Friday

周五

3 p.m. Go on an art walk

15:00 艺术漫步

The Bund, Shanghai’s waterfront of neo-Gothic and Baroque- and Renaissance-style buildings along Huangpu River, once housed global titans of industry. Today, it is a contemporary art destination. Start at the Hive Center for Contemporary Art (free) for large-scale works by established Chinese artists, such as the abstract painter and sculptor Wang Wenting. Opened in 2023 in a former bank building, the gallery’s monumental stained-glass skylight alone is worth the visit. At Rockbund Art Museum, two blocks east, rotating exhibitions — such as one inspired by the work of the French theorist Suzanne Césaire (through April 26) — highlight experimental multimedia works (free). Since opening in 2024, Space 185 at Bund Art Center, a half-mile south, has put on shows pairing contemporary Chinese heavyweights such as the painters Zhao Gang and Yu Hong with global names like Anish Kapoor (free).

外滩是上海沿黄浦江铺展的滨水地带，林立着新哥特、巴洛克与文艺复兴风格的历史建筑，曾是全球工商业巨头的聚集地，如今已成为当代艺术地标。第一站前往蜂巢当代艺术中心（免费），这里展出了中国知名艺术家的大型作品，比如抽象画家、雕塑家王文婷。该艺术中心2023年在一栋百年银行旧址内开业，单是馆内恢弘的彩色玻璃天窗就值得一访。向东两个街区，就是上海外滩美术馆，馆内常设轮换展览（免费），比如正在展出的、受法国理论家苏珊·塞泽尔作品启发的多媒体实验艺术展（展期至4月26日）。向南不到一公里，外滩艺术中心的185空间于2024年开放，曾举办赵刚、喻红等中国当代艺术领军人物与安尼施·卡普尔等国际艺术大师的联展（免费）。

6 p.m. Shop for snacks

18:00 零食采购

Take a six-minute Didi ride or walk just under a mile west along the neon-lit, pedestrian-only Nanjing Road, the city’s version of Times Square. Among the many mega marts is Shanghai First Food Mall, a snack and street-food emporium. On the first floor, pick up palmier-like caramelized butterfly cookies (from 40 renminbi for a box) and cream cakes from Kaisiling (from 12 renminbi for a slice), items so beloved Shanghai’s government designated them a part of the city’s non-material cultural heritage. The second floor has food vendors and a grocery, while the third floor is a medley of many of Shanghai’s popular fast-casual joints.

打滴滴六分钟，或沿霓虹璀璨的南京路步行街向西步行1.5公里左右——这条路堪称上海版时报广场。在鳞次栉比的大型商场中，藏着上海第一食品商店，这是一座零食与街头小吃的宝库。一楼可以买到凯司令的焦糖蝴蝶酥（40元/盒起）与奶油蛋糕（12元/块起），这些经典点心已被上海市政府列入非物质文化遗产名录；二楼是各类食品商户与生鲜超市；三楼则汇聚了上海多家热门轻食快餐品牌。

7 p.m. Eat crab noodles

19:00 吃蟹黄面

The brackish waters of the Yangtze River Delta, where the city sits, host the pride of Shanghainese cuisine: hairy crab. Although peak harvest is in fall, some menus feature the specialty year-round. The restaurant Cejerdary, on the Bund, treats it with a special reverence, underlined by an austere dining room centered around a miniature karst landscape of bonsai. The restaurant serves crab from Yangcheng Lake, the region’s premier source. One order of stew contains the meat and roe of a dozen fist-size crabs and can be ordered over noodles or rice (from 280 renminbi). A generous splash of black vinegar helps cut through the dish’s sweet richness.

上海地处长江三角洲，咸淡水交汇的水域孕育了本帮菜的骄傲——大闸蟹。尽管金秋才是大闸蟹的丰收旺季，但不少餐厅全年都供应这道招牌美味。外滩的蟹家大院以极致的匠心对待这种食材：餐厅装修简约沉静，用餐区以微缩喀斯特盆景为核心景观，主打阳澄湖核心产区的大闸蟹。一份蟹黄捞面/捞饭，用足足十几只拳头大的螃蟹的蟹肉与蟹黄熬制而成（280元起），淋上一勺香醋，可以和菜品的鲜甜醇厚形成对比。

9 p.m. Enter a time warp

21:00 穿越旧时光

It can be difficult to find authentic time capsules in ever-futuristic Shanghai, which has preserved relatively little of its structural heritage. That is why the Jazz Bar at the Fairmont Peace Hotel, one of the city’s oldest music venues, is so special. Since 1980, a five-piece band with rotating members (the youngest is now 70) performs from 7 to 11 p.m. every night. A singer joins in during each hour-long set for a few oldies by past stars like Teresa Teng and Zhou Xuan (418 renminbi minimum per person; drinks from 118 renminbi, snacks from 88 renminbi).

在永远向着未来狂奔的上海，能留存下来的原汁原味“时光胶囊”寥寥无几，这也让费尔蒙和平饭店的爵士酒吧愈发珍贵——它是上海历史最悠久的音乐场馆之一。一支由轮换成员组成的五人爵士乐队自1980年起在这里常驻演出，最年轻的成员也已70岁高龄。乐队每晚19:00-23:00演出，每小时的演出单元中，都会有歌手登台，演绎邓丽君、周璇等传奇歌星的经典老歌。（人均最低消费418元，饮品118元起，小食88元起）

10 p.m. Take in two vistas

22:00 双景尽收眼底

Shanghai functionally has two skylines: the historic Bund on the city's western Puxi side, and the sleek Pudong skyline east of the Huangpu River. To see it all in a single panorama, head to the hotel Regent Shanghai on the Bund, which opened in 2023, where the river bends just north of the main promenade. Book ahead and enjoy a bourbon cocktail (from 138 renminbi) at its terrace restaurant, Condé, while basking in Pudong’s neon glow and Puxi’s soft radiance.

上海有两条标志性天际线：浦西外滩的百年历史建筑群与黄浦江东岸浦东现代的摩天楼群。想要一眼将两幅盛景尽收眼底，一定要去2023年开业的海鸥丽晶酒店，它坐落于外滩主步道北侧的江湾处。提前预订座位，在酒店的露台餐厅Condé点一杯波本鸡尾酒（138元起），一边沐浴着浦东的霓虹璀璨，一边感受浦西历史建筑的温润灯火。

复兴公园INS夜生活综合体内的八家场馆之一——KZ。

Saturday

周六

10 a.m. Go on a dumpling crawl

10:00 包点巡礼

A single block of West Jianguo Road is a dumpling-lover’s paradise. Start at Man Man Tang Bao, where Mr. Li Dailiang and his son make to order extra delicate xiao long bao, steamed dumplings stuffed with a gelatinous pork broth that melts once it is cooked (from 20 renminbi for eight). Nearby, the circa-1885 Fuchun Xiao Long Bao does an excellent sheng jian man tou: a larger, doughier version of the soup dumplings that are pan-fried (from 18 renminbi for four). Choose between two types of wonton soup at Denglong Wonton: pork with bamboo shoots and watercress-like shepherd’s purse (25 renminbi) or pork with shrimp (32 renminbi). Although a light broth is traditional, here it is rich. You can even order an extra scoop of lard — aptly called le kou fu, or happy blessing (5 renminbi).

建国西路的一个街区是包点爱好者的天堂。第一站前往曼曼汤包，李代良父子现点现做，小笼包皮薄如纸，内馅是遇热即化的皮冻猪肉汤汁，一口爆汁（20元/八个）；不远处是始创于1885年的富春小笼馆，生煎包堪称一绝，比汤包个头更大、面皮更暄软，底部煎得金黄酥脆（18元/四个）；还有灯笼馄饨，有两款经典馄饨可选：荠菜竹笋丁鲜肉馄饨（25元）、虾仁鲜肉馄饨（32元）。不同于传统的清淡汤底，这里的汤底醇厚浓郁，还可以额外加一勺猪油，店家给它取了个贴切的名字“乐口福”，寓意口腹之乐（五元/勺）。

12 p.m. Hit the shops

12:00 街区逛买

On Julu Road, browse loose-structured clothing featuring motifs inspired by the Tang Dynasty at Label Del. and the latest from China’s up-and-coming fashion designers at Labelhood House. On Wuyuan Road, a half-mile southwest, shop for beautiful small objects like gingko leaf-shaped copper tea sieves at the Gathering. Across the street is the Former Residence of Zhang Leping, one of China’s first comic artists and the creator of the children’s cartoon character Sanmao (“Three Hairs"), which is now a free museum. About a mile south, Yongkang Road is dotted with old-school shops like Gu Qing Ji Nam Pak Goods, which has sold pantry items like sauces, elixirs and cured meats following family recipes since 1925. Find sweet treats like tofu-based ice cream and pudding at Beiye Tofu (from 28 renminbi) and durian cakes at Yelo Bow (from 49 renminbi for a slice).

巨鹿路上，Label Del有以唐代纹样为灵感的宽松服饰，在蕾虎(Labelhood House)有中国新锐设计师的最新作品；向西南800米到五原路，在集雅Gathering挑选银杏叶铜茶滤等精致文创小物，街对面是张乐平——中国最早的漫画家之一、经典儿童形象“三毛”的创作者——的故居，如今已成为免费博物馆；向南约1500米到永康路，路边有许多老派商铺，比如始创于1925年的古青记山货行，至今仍在售卖按祖传配方制作的酱料、膏方、腊味等食材；还有北叶豆腐的豆腐冰淇淋、豆腐布丁（28元起），Yelo Bow的榴莲蛋糕（49元/片起）等甜品小店。

3 p.m. Experience traditional Chinese medicine

15:00 体验传统中医

Kang You Si Ji is a popular wellness clinic using traditional Chinese medicine with locations across the city. Head to its Jing’an branch for a full-body Tuina massage, a 2,000-year-old technique that acts on the body’s energy, or qi (from 250 renminbi for an hour). The practitioner will start by asking about your sleep, digestion and stress levels (it may help to prepare a brief written overview in Chinese), before observing your posture and locating muscle tension. Then a series of rhythmic movements will follow your body’s meridian pathways, which are thought to carry qi throughout the body. Add on an ear cleaning for 168 renminbi, a service that involves dislodging earwax with a tuning fork.

康友四季是上海人气颇高的中医养生馆，在全市有多家分店。前往静安分店，体验全身推拿——这项拥有2000年历史的理疗技法，作用于人体的气血经络（一小时250元起）。理疗师会先询问你的睡眠、消化与压力状况（建议提前准备一份简短的中文书面说明），再观察体态、定位肌肉紧张部位，随后循着人体经络，用一系列富有节奏的手法完成推拿。还可以加168元体验采耳，理疗师会用音叉配合专业工具清理耳垢。

5 p.m. Enjoy tea and art in a Wong Kar-wai film

17:00 在王家卫的电影里品茶赏艺

Fans of the 2000 film “In the Mood for Love” now have a way to step into its creator’s lush aesthetic at Mi Shang Prada Rong Zhai, a new dining and arts space from Prada that was designed with the Hong Kong director Wong Kar-wai. Have tea on the garden terrace of the restored circa-1918 mansion or in an Art Deco room where almost every surface is mirrored, gilded, or clad in velvet or lacquered wood. Order the tea ritual to try five types (228 renminbi), including China’s coveted pu’er variety. On the upper floors, check out biannual art exhibits, including an upcoming show about finding meaning in data done in collaboration with the Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas’s studio AMO/OMA.

2000年电影《花样年华》的影迷终于有机会来到迷上Prada荣宅，亲身走进导演王家卫打造的浓郁美学世界——这一全新餐饮及艺术空间由Prada打造、由香港导演王家卫参与设计。在这座约建于1918年的修复古宅中，你可以在花园露台或满是镜面、鎏金、丝绒与漆木的装饰艺术风包间里品茶。点一套茶道套餐（228元），可以品鉴包括在中国备受追捧的普洱在内的五款茶品。楼上还可参观一年两期的艺术展览，包括即将开展的、与荷兰建筑师雷姆·库哈斯的AMO/OMA工作室合作的展览，它将探讨如何在数据中寻找意义。

7 p.m. Savor classic Shanghainese cuisine

19:00 品味经典本帮菜

For some 1930s nostalgia and excellent Shanghainese fare, head to Ren He Guan’s Zhaojiabang Road location. The atmosphere would be kitsch if it wasn’t so transporting, with mint-green walls plastered with vintage art and booths dimly lit by stained-glass lights. From 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. most nights, a singer croons folk songs on a small, neon-lit stage designed to look like the one at the Paramount, a historic night club nearby that reopened in 2017 after decades of neglect. Order classic savory-sweet dishes like zui xia, prawns poached in broth and steeped in preserved plum wine, served cold (53 renminbi); guo shao he man, braised river eels with thinly sliced bamboo shoots and peppers (99 renminbi), and hong shao rou, pork belly braised in soy sauce, Shaoxing wine and sugar (from 27 renminbi).

想要沉浸式感受上世纪30年代的怀旧风情，同时吃到地道本帮菜，一定要去人和馆肇嘉浜路店。薄荷绿的墙面上贴满复古画作，彩色玻璃灯给卡座投下温柔的光影，若非氛围足够动人，这般布置很容易显得俗套。多数夜晚的18:00-19:00，都会有歌手在霓虹灯装点的小舞台上吟唱民谣歌曲，舞台设计模仿附近百乐门的舞台——这座传奇夜总会在荒废数十年后，于2017年重新开业。必点经典本帮甜咸口菜品，包括醉虾，高汤汆熟的大虾浸在青梅酒中，冷食上桌（53元）；锅烧河鳗：河鳗配嫩笋片、青椒焖烧入味（99元）；还有红烧肉：五花肉用酱油、绍兴酒与冰糖慢炖制（27元起）。

9 p.m. Discover the alternative after-hours

21:00 探索小众夜生活

In recent years, the area around Fuxing Park, namely Nanchang Road and Fuxing Road, has turned into a lowkey alternative to the techno and bottle-service clubs that long characterized Shanghai’s nightlife. Opened last year, Bar Leone is a Hong Kong import that serves classic cocktails (from 128 renminbi) with small twists, like a velvety whiskey sour shaken with olive oil, in a space styled after an Italian aperitivo bar. Across the park, join the craze for Japanese-style listening bars at Root Down. A few blocks away, Paal’s cocktails (from 98 renminbi), like its gin fizz made silky with clarified yogurt, are inspired by the late fashion designer Virgil Abloh’s so-called “three-percent rule” of innovation via a tiny tweak. And for those who want bottle service, the nightlife complex INS, in Fuxing Park, has eight venues dedicated to various music genres, from Chinese hip-hop to Studio 54-era disco (entry from 168 renminbi).

近几年，复兴公园周边——南昌路、复兴路一带——已逐渐成为长久以来定义上海夜生活的techno电音和瓶装酒服务夜店之外，上海夜生活的低调新选择。去年开业的Bar Leone来自香港，在意大利餐前酒酒吧风格的空间内主打带小巧思的经典鸡尾酒（128元起），比如用橄榄油摇制、口感绵密的威士忌酸；公园对面的Root Down是当下正火的日式聆音酒吧；几个街区外的Paal提供鸡尾酒（98元起），比如用澄清酸奶打造丝滑口感的金酒，灵感来自已故时尚设计师维吉尔·阿布洛提出的“3%创新法则”——用微小的改动实现创新。如果你想要享受开酒服务，复兴公园内的夜店综合体INS新乐园有八个不同场地，覆盖中文嘻哈、Studio 54年代迪斯科等多种音乐风格（门票168元起）。

游客在豫园附近的一座寺庙里供奉香火。

Sunday

周日

9 a.m. Stroll through the dynasties

09:00 漫步江南园林

Before the crowds descend, head to the 16th-century Yu Garden at opening time to experience a classic example of jiangnan design, which emphasizes harmony between architecture and nature (from 30 renminbi). Outside the garden entrance, a central bridge with nine turns — designed to confuse evil spirits — leads to the 18th-century Huxinting Teahouse, which reopened in the fall after a two-year restoration. Peek at the first-floor displays to learn about the teahouse but be warned that the upstairs tea room has a minimum spend of 388 renminbi. Enjoy a brunch of Shanghainese xiaochi, or small plates, at Lu Bo Lang. Most of the menu consists of slightly sweeter versions of Cantonese dim sum staples. Try the Shanghai delicacy mei mao su, a deep-fried crescent-shaped pastry filled with shredded pork and vegetables (36 renminbi, three pieces).

在游客蜂拥而至之前，不妨在开园时前往建于16世纪的豫园，感受这座经典江南园林建筑与自然相融共生的精髓（门票30元起）。园林入口外是专为困住邪灵设计的九曲桥，桥的尽头是始建于18世纪的湖心亭茶楼——这座茶楼历经两年修复于去年秋天重新开放。可以在一楼看看关于茶楼历史的展览，需注意二楼茶座设有388元的最低消费。随后可去绿波廊品尝上海本帮小吃早午餐。这里的菜品大多是粤式点心的微甜版本，可以试试上海经典名点眉毛酥——油炸的月牙形酥点，内馅是猪肉与蔬菜（36元三个）。

11 a.m. Find a match

11:00 相亲

Every Saturday and Sunday, well-meaning parents have gathered at People’s Park in Huangpu District to advertise their children for prospective matches at the Marriage Market. Enter from the People’s Square metro station through Gate 5 and you’ll soon arrive at hundreds of signs listing candidates’ age, height, occupation, income, and even assets (photos are notably absent). It’s a fascinating snapshot of the values of working-class Shanghai. Pick up a tang hu lu, a candied fruit stick, from a street vendor and people-watch under gingko trees. Or reach out to Free Tours China and customize a locally guided excursion that includes the Marriage Market (from 1,000 renminbi).

每个周六和周日，黄浦区人民公园黄浦区人民公园里都会聚集许多热心的父母，在相亲角为子女张贴征婚启事。从人民广场地铁站五号口进入公园，很快就能看到数百张征婚启事，上面写着应征者的年龄、身高、职业、收入，甚至资产（唯独没有照片）。这幅景象生动地展现了上海普通工薪阶层的婚恋价值观。你可以在路边小摊买一串糖葫芦，在银杏树下静静观察人来人往；也可以联系“Free Tours China”，定制包含相亲角在内的本地导览行程（1000元起）。

Facing sharply rising energy prices, China on Monday took steps to defray costs for its more than 300 million drivers who depend on gas-powered cars.

面对能源价格大幅飙升，中国于周一出台举措，为国内超3亿燃油车车主减轻用油成本。

The country’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, announced that it would “reduce the burden” on drivers by lowering a planned increase in gasoline.

中国最高经济规划机构国家发展和改革委员会宣布，将通过下调原定的汽油涨价幅度，为车主“减轻负担”。

Starting on Tuesday, the price at the pump will be set at an average of $4.70 a gallon — up from $4.20 but much lower than a planned $5.10 a gallon. Even with the lower cap, gasoline has jumped about 20 percent since the start of the war in Iran.

自周二起，国内汽油零售均价将定为每升8.55元，虽较此前的每升7.64元有所上涨，但远低于原定的每升9.28元。即便执行了这一限价，自伊朗战争爆发以来，国内汽油价格累计涨幅仍达约20%。

The agency adjusts the price of gas every 10 days to reflect changes to the global price of oil. The surge in energy costs caused by the war has made this typically formulaic process more economically and politically fraught.

发改委每10个工作日调整一次成品油价格，以反映国际油价的变动。战争引发能源成本暴涨，这一原本按固定公式执行的常规调价流程在经济与政治层面都变得更为棘手。

The decision to change its gas pricing was unexpected by oil analysts who watch China closely.

密切关注中国市场的石油分析师对此次调整成品油定价的决定感到意外。

“It suggests that Beijing is deeply concerned about inflationary pressure and consumer affordability, especially given the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds,” said Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, an industry data firm.

行业数据机构开普勒的资深石油分析师徐沐雨（音）表示：“这一举措表明，北京对通胀压力和居民消费承受能力深感担忧，尤其是在当前宏观经济持续面临逆风的背景下。”

The 40-cent increase was the largest single rise to the retail price of gas since the planning commission started adjusting prices every 10 days in 2013. Ms. Xu said she believed it was the first time the commission made such an intervention.

发改委自2013年启动成品油10个工作日调价机制，此次每升0.91元的涨幅是迄今单次零售价格涨幅最大的一次。徐沐雨表示，这也是发改委首次对此类调价进行非常规干预。

China has made concerted efforts to reduce its dependency on oil. Electric vehicles or hybrids, which run on both electricity and gas, make up half of new car sales and around 12 percent of all cars in China.

中国一直在持续发力降低对石油的依赖。目前，纯电动与混动汽车已占国内新车销量的半数，占全国汽车总量的约12%。

But there are still around 300 million cars that run only on gas in China. A little more than half of the country’s seaborne crude comes from the Middle East, and a quarter of that from Iran.

但中国仍有约3亿辆纯燃油汽车。中国海运进口原油中超半数来自中东地区，其中四分之一来自伊朗。

周一，一艘原油油轮停泊在中国东部山东省青岛市某港口的一处油码头附近。

Gig workers, many of whom use their cars to ferry people around, are expected to be some of the drivers most effected by rising gas prices. Drivers for companies like Didi Chuxing, the ride hailing giant, and JD.com, the logistics company, will come under financial pressure unless the platforms increase delivery fees or implement fuel surcharges to pass on the additional costs to customers.

许多零工从业者依靠自有车辆载客出行，预计将是受油价上涨冲击最大的群体。除非网约车巨头滴滴出行、物流企业京东等平台上调配送费，或征收燃油附加费，将额外成本转嫁给消费者，否则这些司机将面临经济压力。

Also feeling the sting of higher gas prices are truck drivers who rely on older vehicles with internal combustion engines. On Chinese social media, hundreds of truck drivers said they had stopped working or planned to stop working because they could not shoulder the burden of the price increase.

依赖老旧内燃机车的货车司机同样感受到了高油价的刺痛。在中国社交媒体上，数百名货车司机表示，因无力承担油价上涨的负担，已经停运或计划停运。

For many consumers, the rising price of oil is another blow to confidence. China is still contending with a yearslong property crisis that has affected many households that invested their savings in apartments. Young people are still struggling to find jobs.

对众多消费者而言，油价上涨是对消费信心的又一重打击。中国仍在应对持续数年的房地产危机，这场危机影响了众多将积蓄投入房产的家庭，年轻人也仍在艰难求职。

A protracted conflict in the Middle East could not only drag down consumer sentiment, which has recently shown some signs of improving, but also threaten an important market for Chinese exports and investment.

中东地区的长期冲突不仅可能拖累近期显现回暖迹象的消费信心，还会威胁到中国出口与对外投资的重要市场。

Over the weekend in cities across China, drivers started heading to gas stations after Chinese state media warned that higher prices were coming.

上周末，在中国官方媒体预告油价即将上调后，全国多座城市的车主纷纷前往加油站排队加油。

One of them was Shu Gang, 55, who works in the insurance industry in the northeastern city of Qingdao. On Sunday night, he waited in line at a gas station for around 10 minutes before getting fuel, he said. He doesn’t drive very much and usually has to fill up his tank only twice a month, so he’s not too worried.

55岁的舒刚（音）在东部沿海城市青岛从事保险行业。他说，周日晚上，自己在加油站排了约10分钟才加上油。他平时开车不多，通常一个月只需要加两次油，因此并不太担心。

“Prices have indeed gone up a lot,” Mr. Shu said.

“油价确实涨了不少。”舒刚说。

Li Peng, a Didi driver who uses a Toyota Levin he rents from his company, said he planned to rush to get gas after work on Monday. He estimated that his daily fuel expenses would jump to $14.52 (100 renminbi, China’s currency) from $11.62 (80 renminbi) starting on Tuesday. Mr. Li, who refuels every two days, said he already encountered long lines as drivers scrambled to fill up.

李鹏（音）是一名滴滴司机，驾驶的是从公司租赁的丰田雷凌。他表示，计划周一下班后赶去加油。他预计，从周二起，自己每天的燃油开支将从80元人民币升至100元人民币。每两天加一次油的李鹏说，他已经遇到了车主们抢着加油排起的长队。

To offset the higher gas costs, Mr. Li said he expected to spend more hours driving. While he views the increase as “relatively large,” Mr. Li said he believed the burden would not fall solely on drivers. He anticipated that if fuel costs climbed too high, Didi would eventually be forced to raise passenger fares.

李鹏表示，为了抵消上涨的油费，他只能延长每天的出车时长。尽管他认为此次油价涨幅“相当大”，但也相信成本不会全部由司机承担。他预计，如果燃油成本攀升过高，滴滴最终将不得不上调乘客打车的价格。

The war in the Middle East has halted most of the oil and gas trade from the region, forcing countries thousands of miles to contend with their energy supplies suddenly vanishing.

中东战事已导致该地区大部分油气贸易陷入停滞，迫使万里之外的各国应对能源供应骤然中断的局面。

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly a fifth of the world’s energy needs. As Iran effectively blocks shipments, international prices for oil and gas have shot up. That in turn has meant gasoline, jet fuel and other products have become costlier — hurting drivers, business owners and others from Los Angeles to Lahore, Pakistan. As the world becomes gripped by the energy crisis, some nations are feeling the loss more acutely.

波斯湾的能源供应约占全球总需求的五分之一。随着伊朗实质性封锁航运，国际油气价格大幅飙升。汽油、航空煤油等成品油价格随之水涨船高，从洛杉矶到巴基斯坦拉合尔，各地的车主、企业主及其他群体均受到冲击。全球陷入能源危机之际，部分国家受到的冲击尤为严重。

Asian countries are the biggest buyers of Persian Gulf energy

亚洲是波斯湾能源最大买家

In 2024, nearly 21 million barrels of oil a day crossed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world. Four-fifths of that supply went to Asia.

2024年，每天约有2100万桶原油经连接波斯湾与全球市场的狭窄水道霍尔木兹海峡运输，其中五分之四的供应流向亚洲。

China has long been the biggest purchaser of oil and gas from Persian Gulf nations. And with more than a third of its total supply coming from the region, the disruption is significant for Beijing. But other countries are almost entirely reliant on the region for their energy needs.

中国长期以来是波斯湾国家油气资源的最大采购方，全国超三分之一的油气供应来自该地区，因此此次供应中断对北京影响重大。但还有一些国家的能源需求几乎完全依赖该地区。

Pakistan has considered imposing a four-day workweek, and remote school and work, in order to preserve energy stockpiles. A state-led fund in Thailand, to subsidize the cost of fuel when prices surge, plunged into a deficit this month.

巴基斯坦已考虑推行每周四天工作制、线上办公与线上教学，以保存能源储备。泰国用于油价飙升时补贴燃油成本的国有基金本月已陷入赤字。

In India, where the economy depends on the Middle East for roughly 40 percent of the country’s oil imports and 80 percent of its gas, a shortage of cooking gas is squeezing households. And across Asia, fliers are being stranded because airlines running low on jet fuel have canceled thousands of flights.

在印度，全国约40%的原油进口、80%的天然气进口依赖中东，烹饪用气短缺正给普通家庭带来压力。在整个亚洲，由于航空燃油库存告急，航空公司已取消数千架次航班，大量旅客滞留。

Europe has been more insulated, sort of

欧洲一定程度上受冲击较小

Europe has traditionally been less reliant on the Gulf than Asia has been. It used to get most of its natural gas from Russia, but in recent years it has relied more on the United States and Norway. But the continent has had to endure one energy crisis after another in recent years, including from Russia’s war with Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed.

与亚洲相比，欧洲传统上对海湾能源的依赖度更低。该地区曾主要从俄罗斯进口天然气，但近年来更多依赖美国和挪威。不过近几年，欧洲不得不接连应对能源危机，包括俄乌战争及随后的西方对俄制裁。

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of gas, and the sales of its energy products have been significantly restricted while Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine.

俄罗斯是全球第三大产油国、第二大产气国，在莫斯科持续入侵乌克兰期间，其能源产品的销售受到了严格限制。

This current crisis comes as European countries, confronting lackluster economic output, try to rebuild their industrial bases and fend off competition from cheaper Chinese exports.

本轮危机爆发之际，欧洲各国正面临经济增长乏力的困境，试图重建工业基础，抵御价格更低的中国出口商品带来的竞争。

Confronted with soaring prices since its attack with Israel on Iran, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, hoping to ease the global supply and markets in the process. The European Union has not made similar moves.

自与以色列共同袭击伊朗以来，美国面临油价飙升，为此临时解除了对目前在途俄罗斯原油的制裁，希望借此缓解全球供应紧张局面、稳定市场。欧盟尚未出台类似举措。

Parts of Africa will be hit hard

非洲部分地区将遭受重创

注：仅显示从海湾国家进口能源的国家。

African nations, like many other countries in the global south, could feel the disruption unevenly. Seychelles, the island nation off the east coast of Africa, imported almost all of its energy from Gulf states in 2024. Mauritius has had a similar reliance, while Nigeria, an oil-rich state and a member of the OPEC Plus oil cartel, has traditionally imported relatively few fossil fuels from the Middle East.

与众多全球南方国家一样，非洲各国受到程度不一的供应冲击。非洲东海岸的岛国塞舌尔2024年几乎全部能源都从海湾国家进口；毛里求斯对海湾能源的依赖度与之相近。石油资源丰富的欧佩克+成员国尼日利亚则传统上从中东进口的化石燃料相对较少。

But as the war continues, the impact is being felt beyond the imports of oil and gas. The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer, partly because the region’s abundance of energy has spurred the development of factories that make the raw materials for many types of agricultural chemicals.

但随着战事持续，其影响已超出油气进口范畴。波斯湾是全球化肥的核心供应地，部分原因在于该地区充沛的能源供应，推动了各类农用化工原料生产工厂的发展。

A sustained rise in the cost of fertilizer could force governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops or otherwise watch food prices climb. That could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.

化肥价格持续上涨可能迫使南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲国家政府为农作物种植提供补贴，否则只能眼睁睁看着食品价格攀升。这可能会进一步加重许多低收入国家本就沉重的债务负担。

The Americas and elsewhere are feeling broader economic shocks

美洲及其他地区正面临广泛经济冲击

The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. That means the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is much less severe.

美国是全球最大的油气生产国，这意味着中东能源贸易停滞对其造成的冲击要小得多。

But the United States and other countries in the region that do not import great quantities from the Gulf are still feeling economic strain. The jump in oil prices – to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks – has already weighed on other major economic factors.

即使如此，美国以及该地区其他不从海湾大量进口能源的国家依然感受到了经济压力。近几周，飙升至每桶100美元以上的油价已经拖累了其他核心经济指标。

The cost of gasoline has jumped by about a dollar a gallon nationally since the war began. American airlines have begun to cut flights because of fuel costs. Concerns about inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level in three months, just weeks after they fell below 6 percent for the first time since 2022.

战事爆发以来，美国全国汽油均价每加仑上涨了约1美元。因燃油成本高企，美国航空公司已开始削减航班。对通胀的担忧推动抵押贷款利率升至三个月来最高水平，而就在几周前，利率刚自2022年以来首次跌破6%。

If the war drags on, or if oil and gas prices continue to rise, the damage will most likely grow, economists say. It is perhaps one reason why the White House has forcefully insisted that it does not need Middle Eastern oil — and is increasingly trying to use military force to stop Iran’s blockade of it.

经济学家表示，若战事持续，或是油气价格继续攀升，造成的损害大概率会进一步扩大。这或许也是白宫一方面强硬声称美国不需要中东石油，另一方面又愈发频繁地动用军事力量，试图打破伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡封锁的原因之一。