Just after her Air Canada flight landed at LaGuardia Airport late Sunday and just before it collided with a Port Authority fire truck, a piercing sound startled Rebecca Liquori.

在她搭乘的加拿大航空航班于周日晚间降落在拉瓜迪亚机场后、与港务局消防车相撞之前，一阵刺耳的声音让丽贝卡·利夸里吓了一跳。

“The pilot was trying to brake to slow the plane down to avoid the crash, and that made, like, just a huge noise,” said Ms. Liquori, who was sitting in seat 19A. “I’ve never heard it before. It was like a grinding.”

“飞行员当时正全力刹车，想要减速避碰，结果发出了一阵巨响，”坐在19A的利夸里说，“我从未听过这种声音，像是在磨东西。”

Ms. Liquori, 35, a nurse who lives in Baldwin, N.Y., was sitting on the left side of the plane, a CRJ-900 regional jet, by the emergency exit.

35岁的利夸里是一名护士，住在纽约州鲍德温。她当时坐在这架CRJ-900支线喷气机的左侧紧急出口旁。

“A few seconds after that, you hear the collision and we just got jolted,” Ms. Liquori said. “We got thrown forward. And everybody’s screaming.”

“几秒钟后，你就听到碰撞声，我们被猛地甩向前方，”利夸里说，“大家都在尖叫。”

The crash killed both pilots, injured dozens of people — including a flight attendant who was ejected from the plane — and shut down one of the busiest domestic airports in the region until 2 p.m. Monday.

这起碰撞导致两名飞行员不幸遇难，数十人受伤——包括一名被甩出飞机的空乘人员，并使该地区最繁忙的国内机场之一关闭到周一下午2点。

Ms. Liquori said the journey from Montreal had been smooth until a turbulent descent. She said she recalled a flight attendant telling passengers that they shouldn’t take any luggage with them if the flight made an emergency landing, a warning that alarmed Ms. Liquori. The language that the attendant used has become more common among flight crews while they are preparing for landing, according to the Association of Flight Attendants. Then came a shudder as the plane touched down.

利夸里表示，从蒙特利尔起飞的航程原本很平稳，直到下降阶段出现颠簸。她回忆说，一名空乘人员曾提醒乘客，如果飞机要紧急着陆，就不要带任何行李，这个警告让她感到不安。据空服人员协会表示，这种提醒用语在机组为着陆做准备时已越来越常见。接着，飞机触地时传来一阵剧烈抖动。

While Ms. Liquori said she couldn’t see what was happening in the front of the plane, she noticed that other passengers around her were bleeding and bruised. Ms. Liquori said she did not hear flight attendants instruct passengers to open the emergency doors, but she opened a door, fearful that the plane would combust.

利夸里说，虽然看不到飞机前方发生了什么，但她注意到周围的乘客有人流血、有人擦伤。她表示没有听到空乘人员指示打开紧急舱门，但她担心飞机可能会起火，于是自己打开了一扇舱门。

“Unfortunately the flight attendant that was in the front, she got ejected from the plane so we really did not have direction,” Ms. Liquori said. “I did what I was instructed at the beginning of the flight.”

“不幸的是，前排的那名空乘人员已经被甩出飞机，所以我们当时真的没有得到任何指示，”利夸里说，“我只是按照飞行开始时听到的安全指示去做的。”

The flight attendant who was ejected, Solange Tremblay, was still strapped into her seat, her daughter, Sarah Lépine, said in an interview with TVA Nouvelles, a Quebec broadcaster. Ms. Lépine said that one of her mother’s legs was broken and would require surgery, but that no other serious injuries occurred.

被甩出飞机的空乘人员索朗日·特朗布莱当时仍系着安全带坐在座位上，她的女儿莎拉·莱皮纳在接受魁北克广播公司TVA新闻采访时表示。莱皮纳说，她母亲的一条腿骨折，需要接受手术，但没有其他严重伤势。

Nathalie Scott, a spokeswoman for Mitsubishi Heavy industries, which acquired Bombardier’s regional jet program, said the plane was not equipped with emergency slides because the doorsills on CRJ jets are close enough to the ground for passengers to exit safely.

收购了庞巴迪支线客机项目的三菱重工的发言人娜塔莉·斯科特表示，这架飞机没有配备紧急滑梯，因为CRJ系列喷气机的舱门槛离地面很近，乘客可以安全地直接跳下。

Instead, passengers clambered onto the wings of the plane and then hopped down onto the tarmac, Ms. Liquori said.

利夸里说，乘客们于是爬上机翼，然后从机翼跳到停机坪上。

Once out of the plane, she said, she realized the extent of what had just occurred. She said the pilots were heroes.

离开飞机后，她才意识到刚刚发生了多么严重的事故。她称飞行员是英雄。

“They did everything they can to save us and they didn’t save themselves and they couldn’t save themselves,” Ms. Liquori said. “Every time I close my eyes, my heart is racing, I just hear screaming.”

“他们尽了一切努力救我们，却没有救自己，也无法救自己，”利夸里说，“每次我闭上眼睛，心脏就怦怦直跳，耳边全是尖叫声。”

Another passenger, Jack Cabot, 22, said after the plane landed hard, it veered back and forth. “No one was driving at that point,” he said.

另一名乘客、22岁的杰克·卡博特表示，飞机重重落在地上后不停左右摇摆。“那一刻感觉就像没人驾驶一样，”他说。

Mr. Cabot said that, despite the chaos onboard, passengers reacted quickly. They opened the emergency door and evacuated, he said, some with their luggage.

卡博特说，尽管机舱内一片混乱，但乘客们反应迅速。他们打开紧急舱门开始撤离，有人甚至还带着行李。

“No one really knew what was happening, just that it was time to get off the plane,” he said. “I’m a little banged up, but I’m happy I’m OK.”

“没有人真正知道发生了什么，只知道该赶紧下飞机了，”他说，“我身上有点擦伤，但很庆幸自己没事。”

An Air Canada regional jet collided with a fire truck on a runway as the plane was landing at LaGuardia Airport in Queens late Sunday, killing two people and injuring dozens more.

周日晚上，一架在纽约皇后区拉瓜迪亚机场降落的加拿大航空支线喷气机与跑道上的一辆消防车相撞，导致两人死亡，数十人受伤。

Here’s what we know.

以下是我们目前所知的情况。

What happened?

发生了什么？

The fire truck, a Port Authority Aircraft Rescue and Firefighting vehicle, was responding to an unrelated incident when it crossed a runway into the jet’s path, colliding with it in a cloud of smoke and debris around 11:40 p.m. on Sunday, officials said.

据官员表示，消防车是港务局飞机救援与消防车辆，当时正为响应另一起事件穿越跑道，从而进入喷气机的路径，在周日晚上11:40左右发生碰撞，产生大量浓烟和碎片。

The plane, a CRJ-900 jet, was being operated as Air Canada Express Flight 8646 by Jazz Aviation, a regional carrier in Canada, and had flown from Montreal with 72 passengers and four crew members aboard. Images show the plane’s nose mostly sheared off from the impact of the crash, and an overturned fire rescue truck nearby.

这架CRJ-900型喷气机是由加拿大支线航空公司爵士航空(Jazz Aviation)运营的加拿大航空快运8646号航班，从蒙特利尔飞来，机上载有72名乘客和4名机组人员。照片显示，飞机机鼻在撞击中几乎完全被削掉，附近有一辆翻倒的消防救援车。

The plane’s ground speed was around 132 knots (151 miles per hour) when it landed, and it slowed sharply, as is normal, to 21 knots (24 m.p.h.) less than a minute later, according to FlightRadar24, an online flight-tracking service.

根据在线飞行追踪服务FlightRadar24的数据，飞机着陆时的地速约为132节（244公里/小时），随后迅速减速，不到一分钟后降至21节（39公里/小时），属正常情况。

A recording of air traffic control communications at the time, posted on the LiveATC website, appeared to capture the moments leading up to the crash.

LiveATC网站上发布的当时空中交通管制通讯录音，似乎捕捉到了碰撞前的时刻。

In the recordings, a person in the truck requests and receives permission to cross a runway before an air traffic control operator tells the vehicle several times to stop. “Stop, Truck 1, stop!” the controller can be heard saying.

在录音中，消防车上的人员请求并获得穿越跑道的许可，随后空中交通管制员多次指示车辆停止。可以听到管制员在说“停下，Truck 1，停下！”

Who were the victims?

遇难者是谁？

The pilot and co-pilot were killed, and dozens of others were injured, including two officers in the truck, officials said. The Port Authority identified the occupants of the fire truck as Sgt. Michael Orsillo and Officer Adrian Baez.

官员表示，机长和副驾驶丧生，数十人受伤，包括消防车上的两名官员。港务局确认消防车上的乘员为小队长迈克尔·奥西洛和队员阿德里安·巴埃斯。

Forty-one others were taken to the hospital after the crash, said Kathryn Garcia, the executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which owns and operates LaGuardia Airport. Thirty-two of those people had been released as of early Monday, but some others were seriously injured.

纽约和新泽西港务局局长凯瑟琳·加西亚表示，碰撞发生后共有41人被送往医院。截至周一清晨，其中32人已出院，但其余伤者中有人伤势严重。

The accident is being investigated by the National Transportation Safety Board, which had a team at LaGuardia by around 3:30 a.m., Ms. Garcia said.

加西亚表示，国家运输安全委员会正在对事故进行调查，其调查小组于周一凌晨3:30前后抵达拉瓜迪亚机场。

A flight attendant was ejected from the plane.

一名空乘人员被甩出飞机。

Rebecca Liquori, 35, who was sitting on the left side of the plane by an emergency exit, said the plane made “a huge noise” as the pilots braked in an attempt to avoid the crash. “I’ve never heard it before,” she said. “It was like a grinding.”

35岁的丽贝卡·利夸里坐在飞机左侧紧急出口旁，她表示，飞行员在试图刹车避撞时，飞机发出“巨响”。“我从未听过这种声音，”她说，“像是在磨东西。”

“A few seconds after that, you hear the collision and we just got jolted,” Ms. Liquori said. “We got thrown forward. And everybody’s screaming.”

“几秒钟后，你就听到碰撞声，我们被猛地甩向前方。大家都在尖叫，”利夸里说。

A flight attendant, Solange Tremblay, was ejected from the plane while still strapped into her seat, her daughter, Sarah Lépine, told TVA Nouvelles, a Quebec broadcaster. Ms. Lépine said that one of Ms. Tremblay’s legs was broken and would require surgery.

据魁北克广播公司TVA新闻(TVA Nouvelles)报道，空乘人员索朗日·特朗布莱在仍系着安全带的情况下被甩出飞机。她的女儿莎拉·莱皮纳表示，特朗布莱的一条腿有多处骨折，需要接受手术。

Ms. Liquori said the pilots were heroes.

利夸里称飞行员是英雄。

“They did everything they can to save us and they didn’t save themselves and they couldn’t save themselves,” she said.

“他们尽了一切努力救我们，却没有救自己，也无法救自己，”她说。

How will this affect air travel?

这将如何影响航空旅行？

Officials ordered a ground stop at LaGuardia early Monday as emergency vehicles swarmed the damaged jet.

官员们在周一清晨下令拉瓜迪亚机场实施地面停飞，大批紧急车辆涌向受损的飞机。

The airport was closed until 2 p.m., halting traffic at one of the country’s key regional hubs. The first flight after the crash took off at 2:08 p.m., as operations restarted. But officials said travelers should expect residual delays and cancellations and should check with their carriers before leaving for the airport. At a news conference on Monday, officials said the runway where the crash occurred would remain closed as the National Transportation Safety Board conducted its investigation.

作为美国重要区域枢纽之一的拉瓜迪亚机场一直关闭至下午2点。首架航班于下午2:08起飞，运营逐步恢复。但官员提醒旅客，预计仍会有一些延误和取消，需提前与航空公司确认。港务局官员在周一的新闻发布会上表示，事故发生的跑道将在国家运输安全委员会调查期间继续保持关闭。

One of three major airports in the New York City area, LaGuardia is a central hub for regional and domestic travel in the Northeast, with nearly 900 arrivals and departures per day.

作为纽约市地区三大主要机场之一，拉瓜迪亚是东北部支线和国内旅行的中心枢纽，每天有近900架次起降。

More than 400 flights to and from the airport on Monday were canceled by the morning, adding to travel strife at United States airports caused by the partial government shutdown. The brunt of the disruption from Sunday’s crash is likely to fall on regional and domestic travelers, as LaGuardia restricts nonstop flights to within 1,500 miles.

周一上午，已有超过400架次往返该机场的航班被取消，这进一步加剧了各地机场因部分政府停摆而导致的出行混乱。预计受此次碰撞影响的将主要是支线和国内旅客，因为拉瓜迪亚机场起降的直飞航班航程不超过2400公里。

While the United States wades deeper into war in the Middle East, Taiwan is in the middle of a political fight over how to counter China’s growing strength. And big choices facing Taiwan rest heavily on the direction taken by its main opposition group, the Nationalist Party, which is increasingly fractured between politicians who lean more toward Washington and a party leader who envisions a new era of harmony with Beijing.

美国进一步深陷中东战争之际，台湾正发生一场政治的战斗，争论的核心是如何应对中国日益增强的实力。台湾面临的重大抉择在很大程度上取决于其主要反对党——国民党的走向。该党内部日益分裂：一部分政客更倾向于亲近华盛顿，党主席则设想与北京开启一个和谐的新时代。

One likely Nationalist Party contender for the presidency, Lu Shiow-yen, recently completed an 11-day visit to the United States, promoting herself as a solid partner of Washington. By contrast, Cheng Li-wun, the chairwoman of the party, hopes to visit China in the next few months to meet President Xi Jinping, an event that she has said could ease enmity with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its lost territory.

国民党的总统候选人热门人选卢秀燕最近完成了一次为期11天的美国访问，将自己宣传为华盛顿的可靠伙伴。而党主席郑丽文希望在未来几个月访问中国，并会见习近平主席。她表示，此举可能缓解与北京之间的敌意，北京视台湾为其失去的领土。

“I also believe that the other side hopes to resolve cross-strait issues peacefully,” she said at a news conference in Taipei on Monday, referring to the government in Beijing. “We hope to expand peaceful exchanges across the Taiwan Strait on this basis, instead of bringing up past grievances every day to settle old scores.”

“我也相信对岸也希望透过和平的方式，来处理两岸的问题，”她在周一于台北的记者会上表示，其中对岸指的是北京政府。“我们希望去放大在这样的基础上面，扩大两岸的和平交流，而不是每天拿出我们过去的恩怨情仇来算旧帐。”

The Nationalist Party, together with a smaller opposition party, holds the majority in Taiwan’s legislature, giving them the power to approve or block the government’s initiatives, including President Lai Ching-te’s proposal for $40 billion of extra defense funds over eight years, on top of the regular annual spending. The Nationalists are also desperate to win the next presidential election in early 2028 after a decade out of power.

国民党连同一个相对小的反对党在台湾立法院占据多数席位，这赋予他们批准或阻挡政府举措的权力，包括赖清德总统提出的未来八年在常规年度支出的基础上再增加400亿美元国防经费的提案。国民党也迫切希望在失去权力十年后赢得2028年初的下一届总统选举。

Taiwanese lawmakers will start formal negotiations over Mr. Lai’s military spending plan this week, alongside rival plans from the two opposition parties. Those parties both propose more modest additions to military spending, with the option of later increases to buy U.S. weapons. The Nationalists have proposed an initial sum of about $12 billion for an arms package already approved by the Trump administration.

台湾立委本周将开始就赖清德的军费计划进行正式谈判，同时还有来自两个反对党的竞争方案。这些方案都提出较低的军费增额，并保留未来增加以购买美国武器的选项。国民党提议最初拨款约120亿美元，用于特朗普政府已批准的一揽子军售。

Legislators from all of Taiwan’s parties are under pressure from Washington to raise military spending. But accumulated rancor and policy disagreements could slow or even derail a deal, which could dent the Trump administration’s willingness to back Taiwan.

来自台湾所有政党的立委都面临华盛顿要求提高军费支出的压力。但积累的怨恨和政策分歧可能减缓甚至破坏协议达成，这会削弱特朗普政府支持台湾的意愿。

“A failure to get the budget through would be taken as a sign that Taiwan is simply too politically fractured, and too strategically complacent, to be a full-fledged participant in its own defense,” said Hal Brands, a professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University who has been following Taiwan’s defense budget debate. “There’s not much appetite in Trump’s Washington for helping allies and partners of that sort.”

“如果预算无法通过，将被视为台湾在政治上过于分裂、在战略上不够进取，无法全面投入于自己的防御，”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学全球事务教授哈尔·布兰兹表示，他一直在关注台湾的国防预算辩论。“特朗普的华盛顿对帮助这类盟友和伙伴缺乏兴趣。”

Months of political deadlock in Taiwan have already exposed polarization, including in attitudes toward the United States and China. The tensions are surfacing in the Nationalist Party, also called the Kuomintang or K.M.T., which long promoted itself as the party that can stay on good terms with both Washington and Beijing.

台湾数月的政治僵局已暴露了极化现象，包括对美国和中国态度的分歧。这些紧张关系正在国民党内部显现，该党长期自诩为能同时与华盛顿和北京保持良好关系的政党。

Centrists see keeping warm ties with Washington as a priority, even while they also want more contact with Beijing. Ms. Lu, the potential presidential contender, sought to underline that message during her visit to the United States, said Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, who advised her on the trip.

中间派认为当务之急是保持与华盛顿的亲密关系，尽管他们也希望与北京有更多接触。为卢秀燕此行提供了建议的翁履中表示，这位潜在总统竞争者在访美期间试图强调这一信息。

“I think the major signal Mayor Lu tried to send through her visit was that the K.M.T. remains, at its core, a traditionally pro–U. S. party,” said Mr. Weng, who is a professor at Sam Houston State University in Texas.

“我认为卢市长通过此次访问试图传达的主要信号是，国民党在核心上仍是传统亲美政党，”现任得州萨姆休斯顿州立大学教授的翁履中说。

去年，台湾军方在屏东试射了美国制造的HIMARS火箭系统。

Ms. Lu, the mayor of Taiwan’s second-largest city, Taichung, emphasized in Washington that she supported an approach to defense that “should not disappoint our friends in Washington,” Mr. Weng said.

他说，作为台湾第二大城市台中的市长，卢秀燕在华盛顿强调，她支持的防务方式“不应让我们在华盛顿的朋友失望”。

Ms. Cheng, the party chairwoman, said that she would also help secure Taiwan’s safety by visiting Beijing and meeting Mr. Xi, and then visiting Washington. Ms. Cheng said she also wants good ties with the United States, including through continued arms purchases, and she said that the Nationalist Party was united. But for some experts, Ms. Cheng’s focus on Mr. Xi amounts to keeping the United States at a distance.

党主席郑丽文表示，她也将通过访问北京会见习近平、然后访问华盛顿来帮助确保台湾的安全。郑丽文说，她也希望与美国保持良好关系，包括继续采购武器，并称国民党是团结的。但对一些专家而言，郑丽文对习近平的关注相当于与美国保持距离。

“There is a clear contrast here between the kind of politician whose first visit would be to the United States, and those who believe it’s more important to engage Beijing first,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, who hosted Ms. Lu for a meeting during her U.S. trip. The contrast, he said, showed “the differences within the party regarding how Taiwan should balance these relationships.”

“这里存在鲜明反差：一种政客的首次访问是去美国，而另一种则认为先接触北京更重要，”纽约外交关系协会亚洲研究研究员戴维·萨克斯表示，他在卢秀燕访美期间为她主办了一次会议。他说，这种对比显示了“党内关于台湾如何平衡这些关系的分歧”。

Ms. Cheng has argued that her approach to Beijing will attract more voters, especially if she can bring back assurances from a meeting with Mr. Xi. China’s leaders have not confirmed that a meeting is on the cards. Ms. Cheng has not visited Beijing since 2023, when she said she went there as a tourist.

郑丽文主张，她与北京打交道的方式将吸引更多选民，特别是如果她能从与习近平的会晤中带回保障。中国领导人尚未确认将安排这样一场会晤。郑丽文自2023年以游客身份访京后未再前往那里。

“My hope is that Taiwan can play a pivotal role in fostering peace along the First Island Chain,” Ms. Cheng said, referring to the clusters of islands, including Japan’s, that face China’s eastern coast.

“我希望这个第一岛链，台湾能够发挥和平的轴心观、轴心角色，”郑丽文说，其中的第一岛链指的是中国东海岸外的一个包括日本在内的岛屿群。

It was a sunny Saturday in the West Portal neighborhood of San Francisco. The public library was bustling, and so were the cafes and ice cream shops.

那是一个阳光明媚的周六，旧金山西门社区。公共图书馆里人来人往，附近的咖啡馆和冰淇淋店也同样热闹。

Just outside the library, a mother, a father and their two little boys waited for a bus ride to the San Francisco Zoo. A perfect way, the couple figured, to celebrate their fourth wedding anniversary.

就在图书馆外，一对夫妇带着两个小男孩在等公交车去旧金山动物园。他们觉得这是庆祝结婚四周年纪念日的最完美方式。

Then, at 12:12 p.m. on March 16, 2024, a boom shook the neighborhood, and the horror that followed still reverberates in San Francisco today.

然后，2024年3月16日中午12:12，一声巨响震撼了整个社区，随之而来的恐怖至今仍在旧金山回荡。

A white Mercedes S.U.V. had traveled at highway speeds before it jumped the sidewalk, sheared a street pole, smashed a bolted-down garbage can and obliterated the bus stop. It finally came to a halt when it crashed into a fire hydrant.

一辆白色梅赛德斯SUV以高速公路级的速度行驶，突然冲上人行道，撞断一根路灯杆，碾碎一个固定在地上的垃圾桶，完全摧毁了公交车站。最后，它撞上一根消防栓才停了下来。

The father, Diego Cardoso de Oliveira, was flung into the air and landed more than 100 feet away, witnesses estimated. The mother, Matilde Ramos Pinto, was trapped in the wreckage, fading in and out of consciousness.

父亲迭戈·卡多索·德·奥利维拉被甩到空中，目击者估计落地时距离现场超过30米。母亲马蒂尔德·拉莫斯·平托被困在车祸残骸中，意识时断时续。

Nearby, her baby cried.

她的小婴儿在一旁哭泣。

“I was talking to the lady and making sure she stayed awake,” recalled Rolf O’Grady, who rushed to the scene after hearing what he thought was a bomb going off. “She didn’t say a word. I just kept telling her that her baby was fine.”

“我当时在跟那位女士说话，想让她保持清醒，”罗尔夫·奥格雷迪回忆道。他在听到一声他以为是炸弹爆炸的巨响后冲到现场。“她一句话也没说。我只是不停地告诉她，她的宝宝没事。”

Her 3-month-old, Cauê, was not fine. Neither was Joaquim, the couple’s 20-month-old toddler, his body launched with his father’s and left unrecognizable.

她三个月大的婴儿卡埃并非没事。20个月大的孩子若阿金也一样，他和父亲一起被抛向空中，已经面目全非。

Within days, all four would be dead. The baby was the last to go after his two grandmothers made the decision to pull him from life support, holding his tiny hands as he died.

几天之内，四个人全部离世。婴儿是最后一个走的，他的两位祖母决定拔掉维持生命的仪器，握着他小小的手，看着他咽下最后一口气。

Two years later, the woman who killed them, Mary Fong Lau, is expected to plead no contest on Friday to four felony counts of vehicular manslaughter. In exchange, Ms. Lau, 80, is likely to avoid prison or home detention.

两年后，导致他们死亡的肇事者——80岁的玛丽·方·刘（音）——预计将于周五就四项过失杀人罪提出不抗辩。作为交换，刘女士很可能避免入狱或居家监禁。

For many San Franciscans who still think about the tragedy, it raises a question: How should a driver be punished for killing four people?

对于许多仍对这场悲剧念念不忘的旧金山人来说，这引发了一个问题：一名司机杀死四个人，应该受到怎样的惩罚？

‘Forever imprisoned in the grief’

“永远被悲伤囚禁”

In the two years since the crash, the case has progressed through San Francisco Superior Court. The parties agree that Ms. Lau was not texting or talking on her phone before the crash. Her car did not malfunction. She was not under the influence of alcohol or drugs, and there was no obvious medical incident.

事故发生两年后，此案在旧金山高等法院取得进展。双方一致同意，刘女士在撞车前没有发短信或打电话。她的车没有机械故障。她没有酒驾或吸毒，也没有明显的医疗突发事件。

But she was driving as fast as 75 miles per hour, three times the speed limit, before she killed four people.

但她在撞死四人之前，车速高达每小时75英里，是限速的三倍。

Judge Bruce Chan said in a hearing last month that he intended to accept Ms. Lau’s plea of no contest to the manslaughter counts. In exchange, he would sentence her to two to three years of probation. Prison time would amount to “mere vengeance,” he said, and home detention and community service would not serve any purpose.

法官布鲁斯·陈（音）在上个月的一次听证会上表示，他打算接受刘女士对过失杀人罪的不抗辩。作为交换，他将判处她两至三年缓刑。他称判处监禁只是“单纯的复仇”，而居家监禁和社区服务也毫无意义。

The judge cited Ms. Lau’s age, her lack of a criminal record and her expressions of remorse shortly after the crash.

法官援引了刘女士的年龄、无犯罪记录，以及事故发生后不久表达的悔意。

“My feeling is that just as this family is forever imprisoned in the grief and the tragedy, Ms. Lau is also going to spend the rest of her days living with the knowledge of the harm that she caused to so many others,” Judge Chan said, according to a court transcript.

“我的感觉是，正如这个家庭永远被悲伤和悲剧所囚禁，刘女士的余生也将时刻记得她对众多人造成的伤害，”布鲁斯·陈根据法庭笔录说道。

玛丽·方·刘预计将于周五就四项车辆过失杀人罪提出不抗辩。作为交换，80岁的刘女士很可能免于入狱或居家监禁。

Judge Chan, through a court spokeswoman, declined to comment further.

他通过法院发言人拒绝了进一步置评。

The victims’ relatives are outraged. Some are flying from as far as Portugal for a vigil at the crash site on Thursday and for the court hearing on Friday afternoon.

受害者家属愤怒不已。有些人从葡萄牙等地远道飞来，将于周四在事故现场举行守夜仪式，并在周五下午出席法庭听证。

They have collected more than 12,000 signatures on a petition condemning the sentence proposed by Judge Chan.

他们已收集超过1.2万个签名，在一份谴责布鲁斯·陈拟议量刑的请愿书上签名。

‘Did I kill that baby?’

“我杀了那个婴儿吗？”

Ms. Lau’s lawyer, Seth Morris, said that she does not know what happened the day of the crash except that she was driving to deliver soup to her brother in West Portal — and then her car was accelerating and she could not stop it.

刘女士的律师塞斯·莫里斯表示，她除了知道自己在开车去西门给弟弟送汤之外，对那天发生的事一无所知——然后她的车开始加速，她刹不住。

She is depressed and has said she wishes she could trade places with the family she killed, Mr. Morris said in an interview.

莫里斯在采访中说，她现在很抑郁，并表示希望能与她杀死的那个家庭互换位置。

“She’s living this life in her own mental prison at this point,” he said.

“她现在活在自己的精神监狱里，”他说。

这场导致一家四口不幸遇难的惨烈车祸令旧金山市民深感悲痛。

Ms. Lau grew up in poverty in China, then immigrated to San Francisco for an arranged marriage and worked long hours as a seamstress in the city’s Chinatown, Mr. Morris said. She eventually managed to buy her own factory.

莫里斯说，刘女士在中国的贫困环境中长大，后来通过包办婚姻移民到旧金山，在唐人街没日没夜地做裁缝活，最终自己开了一家工厂。

Her husband died in a car crash when she was 25, Mr. Morris said. A death notice in The San Francisco Chronicle from Aug. 10, 1970, noted the passing of Jenson Lau, 26, the husband of Mary Lau, though it did not say how he died.

莫里斯说，她25岁时丈夫在一场车祸中去世。《旧金山纪事报》1970年8月10日的讣告提到玛丽·刘的丈夫詹森·刘26岁去世，不过没有说明死因。

They had three children, Jeffrey, James and Janice, whom Ms. Lau raised alone. Mr. Morris declined to make his client available, and the children did not respond to interview requests.

他们有三个孩子，杰弗里、詹姆斯和詹妮丝，这些孩子都由刘女士独自抚养长大。莫里斯拒绝让他的当事人接受采访，孩子们也没有回应采访请求。

Two years ago, immediately after the crash, Ms. Lau sat on the sidewalk with a bystander, Madeline Monge.

两年前，事故刚发生后，刘女士与路人马德琳·蒙格一起坐在人行道边。

It was the boom that drew Ms. Monge to the scene, so loud that she thought two trains might have collided in the nearby subway station. She ran there and, after seeing that the crash victims were being attended to, turned to the S.U.V., its airbags deployed and steam emanating.

蒙格是被那声巨响吸引过来的，声音之大让她以为是附近地铁站里两列火车相撞了。她跑过去，看到事故受害者已接受救助后，便转向那辆SUV——安全气囊已弹出，车身正冒着热气。

There, she found Ms. Lau bleeding and in shock and helped her leave the vehicle.

她发现车中的刘女士正在流血并处于震惊状态，便帮她离开车辆。

“It took her probably 30 to 45 minutes to really kind of get out that she had just messed up,” Ms. Monge said. “She hit the gas when she thought she was hitting the brake.”

“大概过了30到45分钟，她才真正明白自己搞砸了，”蒙格说。“她以为自己在踩刹车，结果踩了油门。”

Ms. Lau broke down when an ambulance arrived to take the baby away.

当救护车来接走婴儿时，刘女士崩溃了。

“She reached out her arms and was crying, ‘Did I kill that baby? Did I kill that baby?’” Ms. Monge recalled.

 “她伸出双臂哭喊：‘是我杀了那个婴儿吗？我杀了那个婴儿吗？’”蒙格回忆道。

Extra layer of trauma

额外的创伤

So what would be a fair punishment for Ms. Lau? There is agreement among the family’s relatives, the district attorney and witnesses at the crash site that keeping an 80-year-old woman out of prison makes sense.

那么，对刘女士来说，什么样的惩罚才算公平？受害者家属、区检察官和现场目击者都同意，让一位80岁的老妇人免于入狱是合理的。

Still, in San Francisco, relatives described the proposed sentence as too light, and as an extra layer of trauma that made losing their loved ones feel even worse.

尽管如此，在旧金山，家属们认为拟议的量刑太轻，并称这给他们带来了额外的创伤，使失去亲人的痛苦更加难以承受。

The district attorney, Brooke Jenkins, has filed a motion asking Judge Chan to reconsider. While she does not think that Ms. Lau intended to hurt anybody, she believes Ms. Lau deserves punishment beyond probation.

区检察官布鲁克·詹金斯已提交动议，要求陈法官重新考虑。虽然她不认为刘女士有意伤害任何人，但她认为刘女士应受到比缓刑更严厉的惩罚。

“We feel absolutely no sense of justice and that these lives were lost in vain,” Ms. Jenkins said.

“我们完全感觉不到正义，觉得这些生命白白逝去了，”詹金斯说。

The family of the victims is frustrated that Ms. Lau will not be required to plead guilty or issue a formal apology in court. The judge said he was waiving those actions because they could affect civil suits that the family has filed against her.

受害者家属对于刘女士无需在法庭上认罪或正式道歉感到沮丧。法官表示，他豁免这些要求，是因为它们可能影响家属对她提起的民事诉讼。

And under the terms suggested by Judge Chan in court last month, Ms. Lau would be eligible to regain her driver’s license after serving probation.

根据陈法官上个月在法庭上提出的条款，刘女士在缓刑期满后将有资格重新获得驾照。

The district attorney and extended family say that home detention and mandated community service would be appropriate — and that Ms. Lau’s driver’s license should be permanently revoked.

区检察官和受害者的大家庭成员认为，居家监禁和强制社区服务才是合适的——而且刘女士的驾照应永久吊销。

The family is skeptical of her remorse. They say that shortly after the crash Ms. Lau transferred several properties in California out of her trust and into the names of family members. After those transactions were called out in the civil suit, she transferred them back. Mr. Morris said she had been given bad advice by a previous lawyer.

家属对她的悔意持怀疑态度。他们说，事故发生后不久，刘女士将加州几处房产从信托中转到家人名下。这些转移在民事诉讼中被指出后，她又转了回来。莫里斯称这是前任律师给的糟糕建议。

He said in the last hearing that he had offered “a process of restorative justice where we could all talk and honor each other’s harms,” but that the plaintiff’s lawyer had rejected it. Neither the district attorney or the lawyer in the civil suit say they have received such an offer.

他在上次听证会上表示，他曾提出“一种修复性司法程序，让我们能够交谈并尊重彼此受到的伤害”，但原告律师拒绝了。区检察官和民事诉讼律师均表示未收到此类提议。

Denise Cardoso de Oliveira, Diego’s older sister, has flown from Florida to San Francisco to attend every hearing in the case, tallying nine so far. She said she has longed for some personal gesture from Ms. Lau.

迭戈的姐姐丹妮丝·卡多索·德·奥利维拉从佛罗里达赶到旧金山，参加了迄今为止的九场听证。她说她一直渴望刘女士能做出一些个人姿态。

“She has never spoken to us,” Ms. Cardoso de Oliveira said. “She has never made eye contact. I have never heard her say, ‘I’m sorry.’”

“她从来没有跟我们说过话，”卡多索·德·奥利维拉说。“她从来没有正眼看过我们。我从来没有听她说过‘对不起’。”

President Trump has postponed his visit to China by several weeks, blaming the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. The trip, which could help stabilize the U.S. relationship with Beijing and revive wider exchanges, should not be allowed to slide indefinitely.

特朗普总统已将其访华行程推迟数周，理由是美国与以色列对伊朗的战争。此次访问本有助于稳定美中关系、重启两国更广泛的交流，它不应无限期拖延下去。

Washington needs to restore regular travel by American policymakers to China, which dropped sharply in recent years, just as the economic and geopolitical competition between the two countries has intensified.

华盛顿需要恢复美国政策制定者对华的常态化出访——近年来这类出访大幅减少，而美中之间的经济与地缘政治竞争却在加剧。

No American president has set foot in China since Mr. Trump did in 2017, during his first term. That absence highlights a simple but troubling truth: Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China.

自特朗普2017年首次任期内访华后，再无美国总统踏足中国。这一空白凸显了一个简单却令人不安的事实：美国人无休止地讨论着必须与这个最大的对手竞争，以及如何竞争，却有许多美国政策制定者从未去过中国。

U.S. officials are left grappling with an abstraction. This can lead to serious misjudgments, such as the escalating tariffs Mr. Trump imposed last year, expecting they would bring China to its knees. In the end, he retreated after Beijing showed it had the tools and capacity to push back.

美国官员只能对着一个抽象概念，这极易导致严重误判。比如特朗普去年不断升级的关税措施，本以为能让中国屈服，最终却在中国展现出反制能力与手段后不得不退让。

Seeing China up close — its manufacturing juggernaut, technological and innovative capacities, state-of-the-art infrastructure and state-fostered industrial ecosystems — would help prevent such miscalculations and hopefully lead to U.S. policy that is less complacent, less theatrical and more focused on what’s actually needed to revitalize American industry.

近距离观察中国——它的制造业巨头、科技创新实力、最先进的基础设施，以及国家培育的产业生态——有助于避免此类误判，也有望让美国政策少些自满、少些作秀，更聚焦于振兴美国产业的实际所需。

Congressional travel to China used to be routine. According to data compiled by the scholar Scott Kennedy, 177 U.S. lawmakers took part in 59 congressional delegations to China from 2010 to 2019. Such exchanges have essentially stopped since 2020. Likewise, American presidents since Ronald Reagan had gone to China at least once during their terms, but that ended with Joe Biden, who never visited as president.

国会议员访华曾是常态。学者甘思德(Scott Kennedy)汇编的数据显示，2010至2019年间，共有177名美国议员参与59个国会代表团访华。这类交流自2020年起基本停滞。同样，自里根以来的历任美国总统在任期内至少访华一次，但这一惯例在拜登任内被打破，他从未以总统身份访华。

This matters more than you might think. Richard Nixon’s visit in 1972 ended decades of estrangement, and subsequent congressional delegations contributed to the normalization of U.S.-China relations in 1979. Cold War-era visits to the Soviet Union — by presidents and members of Congress — were crucial in helping the United States gather information, manage tensions and sustain dialogue on crucial issues such as arms control.

这一点的重要性远超想象。1972年尼克松访华结束了两国数十年的隔绝，后续国会代表团的访问推动了1979年美中关系正常化。冷战时期，历任总统与国会议员对苏联的出访对于帮助美国搜集信息、管控紧张局势、维持军控等关键议题对话至关重要。

Official travel to China was cut off by the pandemic and has yet to recover, because of factors such as tighter government control over Chinese society, Beijing’s experiment with a more combative so-called wolf warrior diplomacy a few years ago and mounting tension between the two countries. China’s periodic imposition of exit bans on U.S. citizens and the imposition of sanctions on government officials on both sides have further chilled the atmosphere. China became toxic in Washington; visiting there risked inviting a political backlash. The political climate has also sharply curtailed the number of Americans going to China for tourism, study and scholarly exchange.

疫情切断了官方对华出访，至今仍未恢复，背后原因包括中国社会受到政府更严格的管控、前几年北京推行更具对抗性的所谓战狼外交，以及两国紧张局势不断升级。中国不时对美国公民实施出境禁令、双方相互制裁政府官员，进一步让两国氛围趋于冷淡。中国在华盛顿成了“毒药”，访华可能招致政治反噬。这种政治气候也大幅削减了美国民众赴华旅游、留学与学术交流的数量。

This situation does not serve American interests. Seeing China as it is will help the United States judge where to compete with China, where to cooperate and how to strengthen its own foundations.

这种局面不符合美国利益。看清真实的中国才有助于美国判断在哪些领域与中国竞争、在哪些领域与中国合作，以及如何夯实自身根基。

To restore American competitiveness, Congress in 2022 passed the CHIPS and Science Act to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and the Inflation Reduction Act, with its support for renewables, electric vehicles and battery supply chains. But much more needs to be done to build U.S. engineering talent, its power infrastructure and industrial base to compete long term with China’s scale and dynamism.

为恢复美国竞争力，国会于2022年通过《芯片与科学法案》以提振美国半导体制造，通过《通胀削减法案》支持可再生能源、电动汽车与电池供应链。但要长期抗衡中国的规模与活力，美国在工程人才培养、电力基础设施建设与产业基础打造上仍需付出更多努力。

That becomes clear when you see firsthand the modernity of China’s factories, the expertise of its scientists and technologists and the integrated production ecosystems behind its world-beating battery, electric vehicle and biotechnology sectors and other industries of the future.

亲眼目睹中国工厂的现代化程度、科学家与技术人员的专业能力，以及其领先全球的电池、电动汽车、生物技术等未来产业背后的一体化生产生态系统之后，就会明白这一点。

We regularly travel to China and often brief policymakers in Washington about what we’ve seen. They lean in most when we describe our recent conversations with leaders and experts in China about how its system works and the internal debates and competing interests behind the state media headlines. American officials should be having these experiences themselves.

我们经常前往中国，并时常向华盛顿的政策制定者汇报见闻。当我们讲述与中国领导人、专家的近期对话，剖析其体制运作、官方媒体报道背后的内部争论与利益博弈时，他们总是格外专注。美国官员本应亲身前去体验这些东西。

After traveling to Shanghai in September, Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, said he hadn’t realized how “advanced” the city was, and concluded, “We need far more trips to China.” Many others have returned from China recently with similar impressions.

加州民主党众议员罗·卡纳9月访问上海后表示，此前并未意识到这座城市如此“先进”，并总结道：“我们需要更多访华行程。”其他还有许多人士近期从中国归来时也有类似感受。

Firsthand engagement can make clear to Beijing that certain American concerns are shared across party lines. When Senator Charles Schumer, Democrat of New York, traveled there as part of a rare delegation in 2023, his bipartisan group pressed President Xi Jinping on controlling fentanyl precursor chemicals, adding to a broader diplomatic effort that led to a commitment from Beijing to do more.

亲身接触能让北京清楚地意识到，美国的某些关切是两党共识。2023年，纽约州民主党参议员查尔斯·舒默率领一个罕见的跨党派代表团访华时，就管控芬太尼前体化学品问题向习近平主席施压，这一行动配合更广泛外交努力，最终促使北京承诺采取更多行动。

Former Representative Mike Gallagher once dismissed diplomacy with China as “zombie engagement” — empty talk with no meaningful outcomes. But at the very least, dialogue can yield useful clues about Chinese thinking and build personal relationships that may prove useful in a crisis.

前众议员迈克·加拉格尔曾将对华外交斥为“僵尸接触”——空有对话、毫无实质成果。但至少，对话能提供了解中方思路的有用线索，并且建立个人关系，这些在危机时刻可能派上用场。

One step Mr. Trump should take is to direct Secretary of State Marco Rubio to restore the China travel programs that were previously authorized under the Mutual Educational and Cultural Exchange Act, which provides a legal framework for federal employees to participate in exchanges funded by foreign governments.

特朗普应当采取一项举措，指示国务卿鲁比奥恢复此前依据《相互教育与文化交流法案》获批的赴华交流项目，该法案为联邦雇员参与外国政府资助的交流提供了法律框架。

As secretary of state, Mike Pompeo saw those programs as “propaganda tools” for Beijing and shut them down in 2020. We should, of course, always remain cleareyed about Chinese motives. But to suggest that the routine hospitality of a foreign government will turn American policymakers into apologists is an insult.

前国务卿庞皮欧将这些项目视为北京的“宣传工具”，于2020年予以叫停。当然，我们始终应清醒看待中国的动机。但若声称外国政府的常规接待会让美国政策制定者变成对方的辩护者，这实属侮辱。

The answer is not to end these visits but to make them more transparent and reduce the risks of espionage and undue influence. This can be done by requiring prompt disclosure of trips’ funding, purposes and itineraries; banning the participation of lobbyists; and making predeparture security briefings a standard part of the process.

解决之道不是终止这些访问，而是提高透明度，降低间谍活动与不当影响的风险。可通过要求及时披露行程资金来源、目的与行程安排；禁止游说者参与；将行前安全简报作为标准流程等方式实现。

Restoring regular travel to China will be neither simple nor risk-free. But the greater strategic danger lies in American policies that are based on stale assumptions, secondhand impressions and an incomplete understanding of what China is building.

恢复常态化对华出访既非易事，也非毫无风险。但更大的战略风险在于，美国政策建立在过时假设、二手印象与对中国发展的片面认知之上。

Ever since President Trump began what he now delicately calls his “excursion” into Iran, Washington has been consumed by the question of when he would call it a day — even if many of his war goals remain unaccomplished.

自从特朗普总统开始了他现在委婉地称为对伊朗的“远足”以来，华盛顿一直纠结于他何时会收手的问题——尽管他的许多战争目标仍未实现。

On Friday evening, as he headed to Florida, Mr. Trump seemed to be designing that much-discussed exit. But he clearly has not yet decided whether to take it.

周五晚上，在前往佛罗里达州途中，特朗普似乎正在设计那个被广泛讨论的退出方案。但他显然尚未决定是否要这么做。

And there is mounting evidence — average gas price approaching $4 a gallon, infrastructure in ruins across the Persian Gulf, a decimated Iranian theocracy digging in and American allies at first rebuffing and now struggling with demands to patrol hostile waters — that the repercussions of Mr. Trump’s excursion may outlast his interest in it.

而且越来越多的证据——平均汽油价格逼近每加仑4美元；波斯湾地区基础设施化为废墟；遭受重创的伊朗神权体制正在负隅顽抗，以及美国盟友起初拒绝、现在正艰难应对在敌对水域巡逻的要求表明——特朗普这次“远足”的后果可能会比他对此事的兴趣持续得更久。

As always, Mr. Trump’s messaging is inconsistent, which his critics cite as evidence that he entered this conflict with no strategy and his followers cheer as strategic ambiguity. With thousands of additional Marines headed to the region and the pace of American and Israeli attacks quickening, Mr. Trump told reporters on Friday he had no interest in a cease-fire because the United States was “obliterating” Iran’s missile stocks, navy, air force and defense industrial base.

一如既往，特朗普发出的信息前后矛盾，批评者将此视为他毫无战略地卷入这场冲突的证据，他的追随者则欢呼这是战略模糊。随着数千名海军陆战队员增援该地区、美以袭击步伐加快，特朗普在周五告诉记者，他对停火不感兴趣，因为美国正在“摧毁”伊朗的导弹库存、海军、空军和国防工业基础。

Hours later, perhaps sensitive to a Republican base understandably nervous about the political effects, he posted on his social media site that “we are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.”

几小时后，或许是察觉到共和党基本盘对政治影响的合理担忧，他在社交媒体上发帖称：“我们正非常接近实现我们的目标，同时我们也在考虑缩减我们在中东的伟大军事努力。”

But his latest list of those objectives left out a few of his previous goals and watered down others. He made no mention of defeating the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which appears to remain in power, along with Mojtaba Khamenei, who has succeeded his father as supreme leader, though he has yet to be seen or heard in public. Mr. Trump also omitted any message to the Iranian people, whom he told only three weeks ago: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

但他最新的目标清单遗漏了之前的一些目标，并淡化了其他目标。他没有提及击败伊斯兰革命卫队，后者似乎仍然掌权，另外还有接替其父成为最高领袖但尚未公开露面或发声的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。特朗普也没有向伊朗人民发出任何信息，而就在三周前他还告诉他们：“等我们完事了，接管你们的政府。它将是你们的。”

And after insisting in the failed negotiations that led up to the war that Iran had to ship all of its nuclear material out of the country — starting with the 970 pounds of enriched uranium that are closest to bomb-grade — he suggested a new goal. “Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability,” he wrote, “and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation.”

在导致战争爆发的失败谈判中，他曾坚持要求伊朗必须将其所有核材料运出境外——从最接近武器级的440公斤浓缩铀开始，而现在他提出了一个新目标。“绝不允许伊朗接近获得核能力，”他写道，“并且始终处于美国能够迅速而有力地应对这种情况的位置。”

上周六，美以空袭后的德黑兰。

That is, essentially, where the United States was after it buried Iran’s nuclear program in rubble last June. The sites have remained under the watchful eye of U.S. spy satellites.

这基本上就是去年6月美国将伊朗核计划夷为平地后的状态。这些地点一直处于美国间谍卫星的监视之下。

Mr. Trump ended the posting with a new demand for American allies, whom he had frozen out of his deliberations before starting the war, and gave no warning to prepare for its consequences. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — the United States does not!” American forces would help, he said.

特朗普以对美国盟友的新要求结束了帖子，他在开战前将盟友排除在决策之外，且未警告他们为后果做准备。“霍尔木兹海峡必须由使用它的其他国家——必要时——进行守卫和巡逻，美国不干！”他说，美军会提供帮助。

“Think of it as the new Trump Doctrine for the Middle East,” Richard N. Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who served on the National Security Council and at the State Department during the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq war, wrote on social media.

“可以称之为中东的新特朗普主义，”曾担任外交关系委员会主席、在波斯湾战争和伊拉克战争期间任职于国家安全委员会和国务院的理查德·N·哈斯在社交媒体上写道。

“We broke it, but you own it.”

“事情是我们搞出来的，但这是你们的事情。”

Mr. Trump’s shifting goals continued into Saturday evening. Just a few days ago, he was calling on Israel to avoid targeting Iranian energy sites, for fear it would lead to an escalating round of retaliatory counter-strikes across the Gulf. But on Saturday, he threatened to hit Iran’s power plants if it did not “FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz” within 48 hours.

特朗普不断变化的目标一直持续到周六晚上。就在几天前，他还呼吁以色列避免袭击伊朗的能源设施，担心这会引发海湾地区一轮升级的报复性反击。但周六，他威胁称，如果伊朗不在48小时内“毫无威胁地完全开放霍尔木兹海峡”，就将打击伊朗的发电厂。

He said that U.S. strikes on Iranian plants would start “WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST.” Iran’s biggest plant appears to be its only operating nuclear power plant, at Bushehr. For decades, nuclear power plants have been considered completely off limits for strikes because of the obvious risk of environmental calamity.

他说，美国对伊朗发电厂的打击将“从最大的那个开始”。伊朗最大的发电厂似乎是其唯一在运行的核电站——布什尔核电站。几十年来，由于明显的环境灾难风险，核电站一直被认为是完全禁止打击的目标。

This is not where Mr. Trump expected to be after three weeks of war.

开战三周后，这并不是特朗普设想的局面。

Foreign leaders, diplomats and U.S. officials who have spoken with the president said that in the first week he voiced expectations that Iran would capitulate. That was clear in Mr. Trump’s demand on March 6 for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”

与总统交谈过的外国领导人、外交官和美国官员表示，在第一周，他曾表示伊朗有望投降。这一点在特朗普3月6日要求伊朗“无条件投降”时就很明显。

The demand was mystifying, said one European diplomat with long experience dealing with Iran, given the country’s competing power centers, its national pride and a Persian state that has existed within the rough boundaries of modern-day Iran, enduring many rises and falls, since the days of Cyrus the Great around 550 B.C.

一位长期与伊朗打交道的欧洲外交官表示，考虑到该国相互竞争的权力中心、其民族自豪感以及这是一个自公元前550年左右居鲁士大帝时代起就在现代伊朗大致边界内存在、历经多次兴衰的波斯国家，这一要求令人费解。

(That demand was also missing from his latest set of objectives. The White House has since said that the president does not expect a surrender announcement from Iran, but that Mr. Trump will determine when Iran has “effectively surrendered.”)

（这一要求也从他最新的目标清单中消失了。白宫此后表示，总统不指望伊朗发表投降声明，但特朗普将决定伊朗何时“实际上已经投降”。）

Iran’s refusal to “cry uncle,’’ as Mr. Trump termed it to reporters on Air Force One, has been only one of the surprises to the president in recent weeks.

正如特朗普在空军一号上对记者所说的那样，伊朗拒绝“认输”，这只是总统最近几周遇到的意外之一。

The first was the crisis in the energy markets, which the International Energy Agency has called “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” It has sent Mr. Trump and his aides scrambling. They have promised releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was only 60 percent full, reflecting a lack of planning. Over the past week the Treasury Department has issued licenses for the delivery of Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. In other words, to calm the markets, the president has approved enriching an adversary that is at war with Ukraine, an American ally, and another that is at war with the United States.

第一个是能源市场的危机，国际能源署称之为“全球石油市场历史上最大的供应中断”。这迫使特朗普及其助手仓促应对。他们承诺动用战略石油储备，但该储备本身就只有60%，反映出规划的缺失。过去一周，财政部已发放许可证，允许交付已在海上的俄罗斯和伊朗石油。换句话说，为了安抚市场，总统批准了向一个与美国盟友乌克兰处于战争状态的对手以及另一个与美国处于战争状态的对手输送资金。

So far, the effects are minimal. Brent crude closed at around $112 a barrel on Friday after the Treasury announcements, and Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that if ships were reluctant to make their way through the Strait of Hormuz, prices could remain high into 2027.

到目前为止，效果甚微。财政部宣布后，布伦特原油周五收于每桶112美元左右，高盛周四警告称，如果船只不愿通过霍尔木兹海峡，油价可能持续高企至2027年。

The Iranians clearly understand that market chaos is their one remaining superweapon. On Saturday, Tehran warned it could set fire to other facilities in the Middle East. The United States believes the country entered the war with 3,000 or so sea mines — some of which are believed to have been destroyed — and the United States has focused on destroying small boats in the Iranian fleet that are targeting tankers associated with American allies.

伊朗人显然明白市场混乱是他们仅存的超级武器。周六，德黑兰警告称，它可能点燃中东的其他设施。美国认为该国开战时拥有约3000枚水雷——其中一些据信已被摧毁——美国一直专注于摧毁伊朗舰队中那些袭击与美国盟友有关油轮的小型船只。

周四，波斯湾驶向霍尔木兹海峡的货轮。

Mr. Trump’s second surprise was his sudden need for allies. He didn’t imagine it at the beginning of the conflict, the defense minister of one Gulf nation said recently, because he thought the war would be short. But patrolling the strait, and other checkpoints, appears to be a task that could last months or years.

特朗普的第二个意外是他突然需要盟友。一位海湾国家国防部长最近表示，他在冲突开始时没有想到这一点，因为他以为战争会很短。但巡逻海峡和其他检查点似乎是一项可能持续数月或数年的任务。

His third surprise was the absence of any uprising among either the Revolutionary Guards or ordinary Iranians. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in the Oval Office this past week “we are seeing defections at all levels as they’re starting to sense what’s going on with the regime.” But American and European intelligence officials say they have no evidence of such defections — even after Israel targeted, and eliminated, Iran’s supreme leader, its top security and intelligence chiefs and many top military officials.

他的第三个意外是革命卫队或普通伊朗人中都没有发生任何起义。财政部长斯科特·贝森特本周在椭圆形办公室表示，“我们看到各个层面都出现了叛逃，因为他们开始意识到政权发生了什么。”但美国和欧洲情报官员表示，他们没有证据表明存在这种叛逃——即使是在以色列瞄准并消灭了伊朗最高领袖、其最高安全和情报负责人以及许多高级军事官员之后。

Military historians will be dissecting this conflict for a long time. But for now it is clear that Iran is a different kind of challenge. Mr. Trump started using the word “excursion” to suggest this is just a short trip, a brief diversion. But there is no real end in sight.

军事历史学家在未来很长一段时间里将继续剖析这场冲突。但就目前而言，很明显伊朗是一种不同类型的挑战。特朗普开始使用“远足”这个词来暗示这只是一次短途旅行，一次短暂的消遣。但这场“远足”看不到真正的尽头。

While BTS does not have any shows planned in mainland China, fans in the country will likely contribute significantly to the supergroup’s album and ticket sales as it returns from hiatus. Fan clubs based in China are marking the comeback by spending tens of thousands of dollars on celebratory billboards in Seoul.

虽然防弹少年团(BTS)目前没有在中国大陆举办任何演出的计划，但中国粉丝很可能在该超级组合结束暂歇期回归时，为他们的专辑销量和门票销售做出重大贡献。中国当地的粉丝俱乐部正在通过在首尔投放价值数万美元的庆祝广告牌，来庆祝他们的回归。

But the Chinese market for K-pop, while enormous and lucrative, can also be capricious.

但虽然K-pop在中国市场规模庞大且利润丰厚，却也可能相当反复无常。

Case in point: Japanese stars in South Korean pop groups have been absent from some recent concerts and events in China, a pattern that experts say is linked to a diplomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo.

举例来说：韩国流行团体中的日本艺人最近在中国的一些演唱会和活动中缺席，专家认为这一现象与北京和东京之间的外交争端有关。

In a high-profile example, the K-pop boy band Riize performed without one of its six members, the Japanese rapper Shotaro, in Macau last month. “I was so disappointed,” said Maya Choi, 16, a fan who traveled to the show from Beijing.

一个备受关注的例子是，K-pop男团Riize上个月在澳门演出时，缺少了其六名成员之一——日本说唱乐手Shotaro。“我真的非常失望，”来自北京、专程前往现场的16岁粉丝玛雅·崔（音）说。

The organizers apologized and cited “unforeseeable circumstances” for the last-minute cancellation, without mentioning China. But analysts and music critics saw the absence as fallout from a diplomatic rift between China and Japan that began when the Japanese leader suggested that her country could intervene militarily if China moved to seize Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of its territory.

主办方道歉，并以“不可抗力因素”为由解释了这次最后一刻的取消，没有提及中国。但分析人士和乐评人认为，这次缺席是中日外交裂痕的外溢影响，这一裂痕始于日本领导人暗示，如果中国试图夺取台湾——北京声称其为领土的自治岛屿——日本可能进行军事干预。

It is unclear if the cancellations are the result of orders from Chinese officials or precautionary decisions taken by organizers. The Chinese government — which has publicly signaled its restrictions on Japanese trade, tourism and cultural imports — has not said anything recently about K-pop specifically. The artists and entertainment agencies involved in several recent cases either declined to comment or did not respond to inquiries.

目前尚不清楚这些取消是否来自中国官方的命令，还是主办方出于谨慎做出的决定。已公开表示限制日本贸易、旅游和文化进口的中国政府最近并未针对K-pop做出任何具体表态。涉及近期几起案例的艺人和娱乐公司要么拒绝置评，要么未回应询问。

Shotaro（左三）去年在得克萨斯州奥斯汀的Riize演唱会上。

Some K-pop fans say that following their favorite stars increasingly requires an understanding of East Asian geopolitical tensions — and a close reading of news reports and social media chatter about cancellations and snubs.

一些K-pop粉丝表示，追随自己喜爱的明星如今越来越需要了解东亚地缘政治紧张局势——以及仔细阅读有关取消和遭故意冷落的新闻报道与社交媒体讨论。

Shotaro’s absence in Macau “opened my eyes to international politics,” said Rachel Sirait, 21, a Riize fan in Jakarta, Indonesia. “One of the reasons I’ve focused on this is because it’s impacting my hobbies.”

Shotaro在澳门的缺席“让我睁开了眼，看到了国际政治”，印尼雅加达的21岁Riize粉丝蕾切尔·西赖特说。“我关注这件事的原因之一，就是它正在影响我的兴趣爱好。”

In other prominent examples, Le Sserafim, a girl group with two Japanese members that is managed by the same company as BTS, canceled a fan signing event in Shanghai in December. And in January, Rei, a Japanese member of the girl group IVE, was absent from an event in Guangzhou.

在其他引人注目的例子中，由与BTS同一家公司管理的女团Le Sserafim（拥有两名日本成员）于12月取消了在上海的粉丝见面会；1月，女团IVE的日本成员Rei缺席了广州的一场活动。

Fans and experts say these Japanese musicians are getting caught in diplomatic crossfire even though neither the bands nor their labels have publicly sided with China or Japan. (BTS, which has no Japanese members, is scheduled to perform in Hong Kong, a Chinese territory, as part of its world tour. )

粉丝和专家表示，尽管这些日本音乐人所在的团体或所属公司并未公开站队中国或日本，却仍被卷入外交交火之中。（BTS没有日本成员，已计划在中国领土香港演出，作为其世界巡演中的一站。）

K-pop has spread around the world largely thanks to the industry’s efforts to be multinational, said Kim Do Heon, a music critic in Seoul. Groups often have members from Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Thailand and the United States. They often sing in English, Chinese and Japanese.

首尔音乐评论家金到宪（音）表示，K-pop之所以能风靡全球，在很大程度上得益于行业努力实现多国化。团体通常包括来自澳大利亚、加拿大、中国、日本、泰国和美国的成员。他们经常用英语、中文和日语演唱。

But this multicultural ambition has turned K-pop into a minefield of sensitivities. Artists have been accused of cultural appropriation and racism and companies have come under fire over political issues, many of them related to China.

但这种多元文化雄心已将K-pop变成一个充满敏感点的雷区。艺人被指控文化挪用和种族主义，公司也因政治问题饱受抨击，其中许多与中国相关。

In 2016, after the Taiwanese singer Tzuyu from the girl group Twice waved a Taiwanese flag on a South Korean variety show, backlash from people who support the unification of Taiwan with China prompted her to make an apology video declaring, “There is only one China.”

2016年，女团Twice的台湾成员Tzuyu在韩国综艺节目中挥舞台湾旗帜后，引发支持台湾与中国统一的民众强烈反弹，她随后发布道歉视频，宣称“只有一个中国”。

And last year, the girl group Aespa withdrew its Chinese singer, Ningning, from a concert after she posted a picture of a lamp that people in Japan said resembled a mushroom cloud evoking an atomic bomb. Although the band’s label cited a health issue, her exclusion was widely viewed as a response to the controversy.

去年，女团Aespa因中国成员宁宁发布了一盏灯的照片，被日本人认为其形似蘑菇云，让人联想到原子弹，因而被从演唱会中撤下。尽管其所属公司称因健康问题，但她的缺席被广泛视为对争议的回应。

More broadly, China’s authoritarian government has dramatically restricted the industry’s business inside its borders.

总体而言，中国的威权政府已大幅限制该行业在其境内的业务。

South Korean stars used to perform freely to rapturous Chinese crowds in the early 2000s. But in 2016, Beijing started barring South Korean celebrities from performing concerts in China, except on rare occasions and in Chinese territories like Macau. The restrictions followed Seoul’s deployment of a U.S. missile defense system that China viewed as a threat to its national security.

2000年代初，韩国明星可以不受约束地在热情的中国观众面前演出。但2016年起，北京开始禁止韩国明星在中国举办演唱会，仅在澳门等中国领土偶尔例外。这些限制源于首尔部署美国导弹防御系统，中国视之为对其国家安全的威胁。

The stakes for K-pop bands are high because China is the industry’s second-largest export market. Japan accounted for about $81 million in album sales last year, while China trailed behind at about $70 million. The United States followed with $64 million, according to South Korean government data.

这对K-pop团体而言风险很高，因为中国是该行业第二大出口市场。根据韩国政府数据，去年K-pop在日本专辑销量约8100万美元，中国紧随其后约7000万美元，美国为6400万美元。

Analysts at Daishin Securities, a financial services company in Seoul, estimate that major K-pop entertainment companies could earn an additional $150 million to $340 million if the Chinese market fully reopened.

首尔金融服务公司大信金融中心的分析师估计，如果中国市场全面重开，主要K-pop娱乐公司可能额外赚取1.5亿至3.4亿美元。

In a relief to the industry, some K-pop concerts have resumed in China as South Korea’s current president works to improve relations with Beijing. Treasure, a 10-member boy band with Japanese members, performed in Macau this month without complications.

令行业稍感宽慰的是，随着韩国现任总统努力改善与北京的关系，一些K-pop演唱会已在中国恢复。拥有日本成员的10人男团Treasure本月在澳门顺利演出，没有出现问题。

Some hope that China’s recent anti-Japanese campaign may provide an opening for South Korean content in the Chinese market, said Eun Jong-hak, a professor of Chinese studies at Kookmin University in Seoul.

首尔国民大学中国研究教授殷钟学（音）表示，一些人希望中国近期的反日运动能为韩国内容在中国市场打开缺口。

2021年，韩国文化院在北京举办的一场BTS活动。

With an eye on that market, some K-pop producers have spent years establishing operations in China and creating groups with Chinese artists. But Professor Eun said that going too far to appease a particular country’s fans would be risky.

着眼于该市场，一些K-pop制作人多年来在中国建立运营并打造包含中国艺人的团体。但殷钟学表示，过度迎合特定国家粉丝的风险很大。

“K-pop thrives precisely because it operates in a gray area,” he said. “But if it evolves into a form constrained by constantly watching someone else’s reactions, it could hinder its growth on the global stage.”

“K-pop之所以蓬勃发展，正是因为它游走在灰色地带，”他说。“但如果它演变成不断观察他人反应的受限形式，就可能阻碍其在全球舞台上的成长。”

K-pop bands are aware of the risks, and they tend to tread carefully when they tour in China.

K-pop团体意识到这些风险，在中国巡演时往往小心翼翼。

At Riize’s recent concert in Macau, Shotaro traveled with his bandmates but stayed backstage. “I’m sure Shotaro’s watching us here,” his bandmate, Sohee, told the crowd. “Like somewhere here but not here.”

在Riize最近的澳门演唱会上，Shotaro虽随队前往但留在后台。“我相信Shotaro正在这里看着我们，”他的队友Sohee对观众说。“就在这里的某个地方，但不是这里。”

Park Haeseo, an 18-year-old fan in Seoul, was among the Riize fans who were disappointed.

首尔18岁粉丝朴海舒（Park Haeseo，音）也是感到失望的Riize粉丝之一。

“What hurts most is that no one is at fault,” Ms. Park said. “Yet someone gets hurt and someone else has to feel sorry.”

“最痛的是，没有任何人有错，”她说。“却有人受伤，有人不得不感到遗憾。”

Harry Guo built a life that defined success in China. Born in 1971, he came of age in the 1990s, when China deepened its economic reforms. He taught himself computing and found his way into jobs in multinational firms and then Chinese internet giants. By his mid-40s, he was comfortably middle class. He and his wife paid off two mortgages early and sent their daughter to high school and college in Canada.

哈里·郭（音）打造了堪称中国式成功范本的人生。他生于1971年，在90年代中国深化经济改革的浪潮中步入成年。他自学计算机技术，先后入职多家跨国企业，之后又进入中国互联网巨头公司。40多岁时，他已跻身中产阶级，生活安稳，和妻子提前还清了两套房产的房贷，把女儿送到加拿大读高中和大学。

Then Mr. Guo was laid off. Now 55, he has not had a job in more than two years. It’s not for lack of trying. The supermarket near his Beijing apartment won’t hire cashiers over 50. The warehouse where he inquired about work turned him away. An acquaintance who runs a small business told him, with some embarrassment, that his age made him unemployable.

但后来，哈里·郭被裁员了。如今55岁的他已经两年多没有工作。这并非因为他没有努力尝试，他位于北京住处附近的超市不招50岁以上的收银员；他去仓库求职也被拒之门外；一位经营小生意的熟人带着几分尴尬告诉他，他这个年纪，实在没法录用。

For decades, people like Mr. Guo — I call them the reform generation — felt they had struck a straightforward bargain with the system: Work hard, don’t criticize the government, and life will steadily improve.

几十年来，像哈里·郭这样的人——我称他们为改革一代——始终觉得，自己和这个体系之间有一份简单明了的约定：努力工作，不批评政府，生活就会稳步向好。

During the boom years, when China’s economy was growing in double digits, career opportunities were abundant as Chinese and multinational companies competed for talent. A job hop could mean a 30 percent raise. They were the first in their families to go to college, own apartments and rise through corporate ranks. They sent their children to tutors and schools abroad.

在经济腾飞的年代，中国经济保持两位数高速增长，中国企业和跨国公司争相抢夺人才，职业机会遍地都是。跳一次槽意味着薪资可能上升30%。他们是家族里第一代大学生、第一代拥有房产、第一代在企业里一路晋升到管理层的人。他们给孩子报补习班，送孩子出国留学。

The Chinese dream, much like the American one, was the expectation that those who worked hard could have a better life than their parents’ and that their children’s would be better than their own.

这个中国梦和美国梦何其相似：人们相信，只要努力工作，就能过上比父母更好的生活，而自己的孩子又能过得比自己更好。

Now that dream is unraveling. There is little room for upward mobility and a strong downward pull. The housing market has contracted sharply. Private investment has slowed. Multinational companies shuttered or scaled back their operations. Layoffs have spread through technology, media, education and property-related industries since the pandemic, even though China’s official urban unemployment rate has hovered around 5 percent for years.

如今，这个梦正在破碎。社会向上流动的空间微乎其微，向下流动的拉力却无比强劲。房地产市场大幅收缩，民间投资持续放缓，跨国企业纷纷关停或缩减在华业务。尽管中国官方城镇失业率多年来一直徘徊在5%左右，但自疫情以来，裁员潮已蔓延至科技、媒体、教育及房地产相关行业。

Across China’s cities, midcareer professionals who rode the reform-era boom are discovering that the labor market has little use for them. They are too old for an economy that prizes youth, too expensive for firms under pressure and too financially committed — mortgages, tuition, aging parents — to stop working.

在中国的各大城市，乘着改革浪潮之势成长的职场中年专业人士发现，劳动力市场已经容不下他们了。在这个崇尚年轻的经济环境里，他们年纪太大；对于经营承压的企业而言，他们薪资成本太高；房贷、子女学费、年迈的父母这些沉甸甸的经济责任又让他们根本无法停止工作。

Mr. Guo invoked a popular social media meme: “At 40 you’re dead professionally. You’re simply waiting to be buried.” At 55, he feels he has already been interred.

哈里·郭提起了社交媒体上一个广为流传的梗：“40岁职场生涯已死，只剩坐等入土。”55岁的他，觉得自己早已被埋葬了。

When Mr. Guo lost his job in October 2023, he registered his unemployment status with an official administrative office in his neighborhood and was added to a WeChat group labeled “40/50,” a bureaucratic designation for unemployed women over 40 and men over 50. In his residential compound of roughly 1,000 households, the group has grown from four members to 86 in just over a year.

2023年10月失业后，哈里·郭去他家附近的政务服务中心办理了失业登记，被拉进了一个名为“40/50”的微信群。这是一个官僚术语，特指40岁以上的失业女性和50岁以上的失业男性。在他居住的约有1000户人家的小区里，这个群在短短一年多里从最初的四个人涨到了86人。

Age discrimination is so normalized that it has its own name: the Curse of 35, a widely held belief that white-collar workers become liabilities rather than assets once they cross that age threshold. Although Chinese law contains general prohibitions against employment discrimination, it does not clearly define or strongly enforce protections against age bias. A recent WeChat post from a recruitment company in Chongqing was typical: a customer service role capped at 30, a bank call center at 35, a semiconductor plant at 30, a warehouse sorting job at 45.

就业年龄歧视已经如此常态化，甚至有了一个专属的名字：35岁魔咒。人们普遍认为，一旦跨过35岁这个门槛，白领就从企业的资产变成了负担。尽管中国法律有禁止就业歧视的通用条款，但并未明确界定年龄歧视，也缺乏强有力的执法保障。重庆一家招聘公司发布的微信帖子颇具代表性：客服岗年龄上限30岁，银行呼叫中心限35岁以下，半导体工厂限30岁，仓库分拣岗限45岁。

根据某招聘平台2021年的数据，阿里巴巴员工的平均年龄为31岁。

Chinese tech firms skew notably young. According to 2021 data from the job platform Maimai, the average employee age at ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, was 27; at Alibaba and Huawei it was 31. In large U.S. tech firms, the average employee age, according to one analysis, is 37.

中国科技公司的员工年龄结构更是呈现出明显的年轻化倾向。职场社交平台脉脉2021年的数据显示，TikTok母公司字节跳动的员工平均年龄仅27岁，阿里巴巴和华为的平均年龄是31岁。据一项分析显示，美国大型科技公司的员工平均年龄为37岁。

For many, however, the indignity of ageism is only part of the problem. What is more disorienting is that the ladder of mobility they climbed has been pulled from under their feet.

然而对很多人来说，年龄歧视带来的屈辱感只是问题的一部分。更让他们无所适从的是，他们曾经向上攀爬的那架社会上升阶梯已从脚下抽走。

One man, who asked to be identified only by his last name, Ma, spent more than two decades as a reporter and editor at a state broadcast station. He had moved to Shanghai from Inner Mongolia in 2003, part of a wave of provincial talent drawn to opportunities in bigger cities. During their peak earning years, he and his wife, who still works there, brought home roughly $70,000 a year combined. They had two daughters, bought cars and traded up to a bigger apartment.

一位只愿透露自己姓马的男性在一家省级广播电视台做了20多年记者和编辑。2003年，他从内蒙古来到上海，是当年涌向大城市寻找机会的外省人才大军中的一员。在收入巅峰期，他和妻子（她至今仍在该台工作）年收入合计约50万元。他们生了两个女儿，买了车，换了更大的房子。

Then, around 2018, advertising revenue began to dry up. Mr. Ma’s work increased even as pay declined. In 2022, he was diagnosed with a blood disorder requiring a bone-marrow transplant and time off. He returned to work early, against his doctor’s advice, because he had heard that the broadcaster was restructuring and he feared losing his job.

大约2018年，广电行业的广告收入开始枯竭。马先生的工作量越来越大，薪水却不升反降。2022年，他确诊了一种血液病，需要接受骨髓移植，并需要长期休养。可他听说台里正在进行结构调整，害怕丢掉工作，最终不顾医生的建议，提前返岗。

He lost it anyway. On Dec. 31, 2024, he recorded his final broadcast. He now receives about $280 a month in unemployment benefits. He buys discounted vegetables and meat. He has applied for audio editing and journalism roles. No one has called back. He is 47.

可他最终还是丢了工作。2024年12月31日，他录完了职业生涯的最后一期节目。现在，他每个月能领到约2000元的失业金，买菜买肉都要挑打折的，他去申请了各种音频剪辑和新闻相关的岗位，但毫无回音。他今年47岁。

“The moment you’re past a certain age, you become invisible,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what you’ve done or what you know.”

“人一过了某个年纪，就成了透明人，”他说，“你过去做什么、懂什么，全都不重要了。”

When I asked him about his future, he said he’d rather not think about it.

当我问他对未来有什么打算时，他说，宁愿不去想这些。

In a second-tier city in northern China, a 39-year-old network infrastructure salesman had a career that followed the same arc. He asked to be identified only by his nickname, Benchi, which is the Chinese name for Mercedes. He left his village for college, joined a major internet company, got married and bought an apartment in 2019, when real estate prices were at their peak.

在中国北方的一座二线城市，一名39岁的网络基础设施销售员也经历了同样的职业轨迹。他要求只用他的昵称“奔驰”来称呼他，这是梅赛德斯汽车的中文名字。他从农村考上大学，入职一家大型互联网公司，结婚成家，在2019年房价顶峰时贷款买了房。

Benchi was laid off in 2023. After an eight-month search, he found a position paying roughly half his previous salary.

奔驰在2023年被裁员。找了八个月的工作，才找到一份薪资只有之前一半的岗位。

The apartment he purchased has lost at least a quarter of its value and is difficult to sell. His wife, a full-time homemaker, wants to have a second child. He doesn’t see how they can afford another child, and thinks they should cut back on expenses, even cancel their daughter’s dance class.

他当年买的房子如今市值已经跌了至少四分之一，还很难出手。做全职家庭主妇的妻子想生二胎，可他觉得根本负担不起第二个孩子，觉得家里应该缩减开支，甚至连女儿的舞蹈课都想停掉。

“I used to think next year will be better,” Benchi said. “Now I think about how to make sure what I have doesn’t collapse.”

“以前我总觉得，明年会更好，”奔驰说。“现在我想的只是怎么守住手头的东西别崩盘。”

Harry Guo has made peace with his situation. “This has nothing to do with me,” he said. “It’s like the Cultural Revolution or the ’90s mass layoff of the state-owned enterprises. It’s a historical cycle. It just happens to be our turn.”

哈里·郭已经和自己的处境和解了。“这不是我个人的问题，”他说。“就像当年的文化大革命，就像90年代的国企下岗潮。这是历史的周期。这次刚好轮到我们。”

He now believes in making the greatest effort while preparing for the worst. “When the Titanic is sinking,” he said, “all you can do is try to go down with some dignity.”

现在的他信奉一句话：尽最大的努力，做最坏的打算。他说，“泰坦尼克沉没的时候，你能做的无非是尽量有尊严地沉下去。”

Three weeks into a war in the Middle East that is roiling energy markets, Asia is confronting one of the first major consequences of an oil shortage, as jet fuel prices surge to record levels and governments scramble to keep flights running.

中东爆发战争三周后，能源市场剧烈动荡，亚洲正面临石油短缺引发的第一批重大后果：航空煤油价格飙升至历史最高水平，各国政府奋力维持航班正常运行。

Airlines have canceled thousands of flights, stranding tens of thousands of passengers. Major regional energy suppliers, including China, South Korea and Thailand, are restricting exports, while import-dependent countries like Vietnam are forced to ration and call on others for help.

航空公司已取消数千架次航班，数以万计的乘客滞留。包括中国、韩国和泰国在内的主要区域能源供应国开始限制出口，而越南这样高度依赖进口的国家则被迫实施配给，并向他国求援。

The accelerating crisis offers a first glimpse of what happens when oil supplies are suddenly choked off by an unexpected crisis with no clear end in sight. The pain is most acute in Asia, where countries rely on Middle Eastern oil and have limited stockpiles, and experts warn that it may foreshadow more disruptions if the war drags on.

这场加速发展的危机让人们首次窥见当石油供应因一场出人意料且看不到尽头的危机而突然被掐断时会发生什么。亚洲受冲击最为严重，因为该地区国家依赖中东石油，且战略储备有限。专家警告，如果战争持续拖延，未来可能有更多扰动。

“We’re peering into what our gasoline and diesel future is going to look like if this doesn’t get resolved,” said James Noel-Beswick, the head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, a data firm.

“如果这场冲突得不到解决，我们将看到汽油和柴油在未来会是什么样子，”数据公司Sparta Commodities大宗商品主管詹姆斯·诺埃尔-贝斯威克表示。

“Jet is kind of a canary in the coal mine,” he said.

“航空燃油有点像煤矿里的金丝雀，”他说道。

The risk of oil shortages rippled across Asia within days after the United States and Israel went to war against Iran, bringing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. About a fifth of the world’s oil flows through the narrow shipping corridor along Iran’s southern coast, and most of it ends up in Asia.

在美国和以色列对伊朗开战后几天内，通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮航运完全停摆，石油短缺风险迅速波及整个亚洲。全球约五分之一的石油经由伊朗南部海岸这条狭窄航道运输，其中大部分最终流向亚洲。

In Indian cities, people started hoarding liquefied petroleum, widely used for cooking. Bangladesh canceled university classes. The Philippines has moved to a four-day workweek. In Vietnam and Thailand, gas stations posted “sold out” signs as governments with limited stockpiles imposed emergency conservation efforts.

在印度城市，人们开始囤积广泛用于烹饪的液化石油气。孟加拉国取消了大学课程。菲律宾转向每周四天工作制。在越南和泰国，加油站贴出“售罄”告示，储备有限的政府纷纷实施紧急节约措施。

周四，印度勒克瑙，人们排队等待补充液化石油气罐。

Then came a shock no one expected. Jet fuel prices spiked to a record high of more than $200 a barrel, more than doubling the prewar price.

随后又有了一个没人预见到的冲击：航空燃油价格飙升至每桶超过200美元的历史新高，比战前价格翻了一倍多。

“It is at unprecedented levels,” Nikhil Ravishankar, the chief executive of Air New Zealand, told a local media outlet last week after it canceled around 1,100 flights through early May.

“这是前所未有的水平，”新西兰航空首席执行官尼基尔·拉维尚卡上周对当地媒体表示，该公司已取消约1100架次航班，持续到5月初。

Jet fuel prices have risen faster and more drastically than the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, which settled at $108.65 a barrel on Thursday — up about 50 percent since the war started.

航空燃油价格的上涨速度和幅度远超全球油价基准布伦特原油。周四布伦特原油结算价为每桶108.65美元，自战争开始以来上涨约50%。

Jet fuel is often the first refined oil product to run short, in part because it is held to stricter quality standards than other fuels. It must be stored in specialized tanks, making large reserves costly, and it cannot sit for long periods without degrading. As a result, there is less buffer to absorb supply disruptions. And unlike gasoline or diesel, which have more flexible supply chains, jet fuel depends on specific components that are harder to substitute, leaving fewer alternatives when supplies tighten.

航空燃油往往是第一个出现短缺的成品油产品，部分原因是其质量标准比其他燃料更严格。它必须储存在专用罐中，大量储备成本高昂，且不能长期存放，否则会变质。因此，它的缓冲空间较小。与供应链更灵活的汽油或柴油不同，航空燃油依赖一些难以替代的环节，一旦供应收紧，可选替代品极少。

The structure of the global fuel system magnifies the problem. Countries that extract crude oil are often not the ones that refine it. South Korea, for example, is a major exporter of jet fuel, but relies heavily on imported crude, much of it from the Strait of Hormuz.

全球燃料体系的结构放大了这一问题。开采原油的国家往往不是炼油国。例如，韩国是航空燃油的主要出口国，但严重依赖进口原油，其中很大一部分来自霍尔木兹海峡。

Countries like Australia have reduced their refining capacity over the years, leaving them more dependent not only on imported oil but also on other countries’ willingness and ability to refine and sell it.

澳大利亚等国多年来缩减了炼油产能，导致它们不仅更依赖进口石油，还更依赖其他国家的炼油和出售。

本月早些时候，伊朗德黑兰，一处储油设施在空袭中遭到攻击。

China was one of the first countries to restrict exports of refined oil products, including jet fuel, days after the fighting began last month. The move reverberated across the region, where China supplies at least half the fuel consumed in some countries.

中国是战斗爆发后几天内最早限制包括航空燃油在内的成品油出口的国家之一。这一举措在区域内产生连锁反应，在一些国家，中国供应的燃料至少占消费量的一半。

In recent days, Thailand, a major supplier to Vietnam, imposed a temporary ban on certain fuel exports, including jet fuel, while South Korea capped exports of some gasoline and diesel products, further squeezing jet fuel supplies as refineries put a priority on domestic demand.

近日，向越南供应大量燃料的泰国对包括航空燃油在内的某些燃料出口实施临时禁令；韩国则对部分汽油和柴油产品出口设限，进一步挤压航空燃油供应，因为炼油厂优先满足国内需求。

“We’ve seen a ban on crude product exports, and China has been one of the first to do so,” said Neil Beveridge, the director of research at Bernstein, a market research firm, citing conversations with traders and companies in the oil sector. The moves prompted companies to hoard oil on the expectation that the situation would only get worse, he said.

“我们看到了一些原油产品出口禁令，中国是最早采取行动的国家之一，”市场研究公司Bernstein研究总监尼尔·贝弗里奇表示，他援引了与石油行业交易员和企业的对话。这些举措促使企业开始囤积石油，它们预计情况只会进一步恶化。

In Vietnam, fears of price spikes and fuel shortages have incited panic. Hundreds of drivers on motorbikes, the main mode of transport in the country, have lined up late into the night outside gas stations in Hanoi.

在越南，对价格飙升和燃料短缺的担忧引发恐慌。摩托车是该国主要交通工具，数百名骑手深夜在河内加油站排起长队。

The situation has grown so dire that Vietnam’s foreign minister and prime minister have met with ambassadors and senior officials from China, South Korea, Thailand, Japan and the United Arab Emirates, urging them to help, including sharing access to strategic reserves.

局势已变得极为严峻，越南外交部长和总理接连会见中国、韩国、泰国、日本和阿联酋的大使及高级官员，恳请对方提供帮助，包括分享战略储备。

上周，越南河内的一处加油站。该国有近四分之三的航空燃料依赖进口。

Nearly three-quarters of Vietnam’s aviation fuel is imported, mostly from China and Thailand. Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority warned this week that jet fuel shortages could emerge as early as April. Vietnamese airlines are weighing fare increases and flight cuts to cope with rising costs and tightening supplies. Even at higher prices, securing additional fuel remains a serious challenge.

越南近四分之三的航空燃料依赖进口，主要来自中国和泰国。越南民航局本周警告，航空燃油短缺可能最早在4月出现。越南各航空公司正在考虑提价和减班以应对成本上升和供应收紧。即使付出更高价格，也很难得到更多的燃油。

“Access to fuel supplies is extremely difficult at the moment, as it depends entirely on external factors, particularly the conflict in the Middle East,” said Bui Ngoc Bao, chairman of the Vietnam Petroleum Association.

“目前获取燃料供应的难度极大，因为这完全取决于外部因素，尤其是中东冲突，”越南石油协会主席裴玉宝(Bui Ngoc Bao)表示。

For Australia, the current shock is a situation long flagged as a vulnerability because of the nation’s reliance on imports, including in the government’s own review. The country imports 90 percent of its fuel and had about a 32-day supply of jet fuel on hand in early March, according to the country’s energy minister.

对澳大利亚而言，此次冲击凸显了一个很久以前就已经认识到的薄弱环节，政府自身的审查报告就曾指出这一点。该国90%的燃料依赖进口，据能源部长透露，3月初航空燃油储备约为32天。

A local media report that at least one fuel tanker bound for Australia failed to load at a Chinese port in mid-March fanned fears that shortages were ahead.

当地媒体报道称，3月中旬至少有一艘驶往澳大利亚的燃油运输船未能在中国港口装货，这加剧了人们对即将出现短缺的恐慌。

On Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reassured the public that the country’s fuel supply remained secure, attributing any shortages to panic buying, noting that demand had more than doubled in some regions. At the same time, he announced a task force on fuel security, saying he wanted the country to be “overprepared.”

周四，总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯向公众保证国家燃料供应仍然安全，将任何短缺归咎于恐慌性抢购，并指出部分地区需求已增长一倍以上。同时，他宣布成立燃料安全工作组，表示希望国家做到“过度准备”。

上周，澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞在议会发表讲话。他于周四表示：“这场冲突对全球能源市场造成了前所未有的冲击。”

As a part of the measures, Australia will also keep more of the domestically produced fuel in the country, he said.

他表示，其中一项措施是把更多国内生产的燃料留在本国。

“The conflict is an unprecedented shock to global energy markets,” Mr. Albanese said, adding: “Already, Australians are feeling the consequences of this.”

“这场冲突对全球能源市场造成了前所未有的冲击，”阿尔巴尼斯说，并补充道：“澳大利亚人已经开始感受到后果。”

The chief executive of Sydney Airport, which accounts for 40 percent of the country’s jet fuel consumption, said last week that the airport typically held around a 25-day supply. But the reliability of that stock “depends on international shipping lanes, global refining capacity and geopolitical stability,” the executive, Scott Charlton, said in remarks at a summit on renewable fuels.

悉尼机场——占全国航空燃油消费量的40%——首席执行官斯科特·查尔顿上周在一个可再生燃料峰会上表示，该机场通常保有约25天的供应。但他指出，这一库存的可靠性“取决于国际航道、全球炼油产能和地缘政治稳定”。

Of the war now jeopardizing all those fronts, he said: “We’re reminded quickly how interconnected energy, aviation and geopolitics are.”

如今所有这些方面都受到战争威胁，对此他表示：“这很快让我们看到，能源、航空和地缘政治是多么紧密相连。”

Labubu toys, the grinning fuzzy trinkets that became a global sensation last year, are going to be the stars of a Hollywood movie, joining a growing list of beloved characters to jump from store shelves to the big screen. (Hi, Barbie!)

咧嘴而笑的毛绒小玩偶Labubu去年火遍全球，如今即将成为好莱坞电影的主角，加入从货架走向大银幕的人气角色大军。（没错，就是芭比！）

Sony and the Chinese retailer Pop Mart, which exclusively sells the dolls, announced on Thursday that they were developing a Labubu feature film. Paul King, the British screenwriter and director behind “Paddington” and “Wonka,” will produce and direct the film, according to a statement from the companies. King will collaborate with Steven Levenson, who wrote the book for the musical “Dear Evan Hansen,” on the screenplay.

索尼影业与该玩偶独家发售方、中国零售商泡泡玛特于周四宣布，双方正在开发一部Labubu长片。两家公司发布的声明显示，曾执导《帕丁顿熊》(Paddington)和《旺卡》(Wonka)的英国编剧兼导演保罗·金将担任本片的制片人与导演，并与音乐剧《致埃文·汉森》(Dear Evan Hansen)的剧本创作者史蒂文·莱文森合作撰写电影剧本。

The announcement offered few details and did not give a release date. But the film will become the latest to turn beloved toys into the stars of a major movie, along with Barbie, Lego, the Transformers and others.

此次官宣披露的细节极少，也未公布上映日期。但这部影片将成为继芭比、乐高和变形金刚等作之后，又一部将人气潮玩打造成商业大片主角的作品。

The close link between movies and merchandising is often traced back to the immense success of the original “Star Wars” trilogy in the late 1970s and early ’80s, intellectual property experts said.

知识产权领域专家表示，电影与衍生品商业的深度绑定，通常可追溯至上世纪70年代末至80年代初《星球大战》(Star Wars)正传三部曲的巨大成功。

“It took seriously the idea of your intellectual property being commercialized on quite a few different channels,” Emily Hudson, a professor of law at the University of Oxford, said of “Star Wars.”

牛津大学法学教授埃米莉·哈德森谈及《星球大战》时表示：“这部作品真正践行了一套理念，让知识产权在多个不同渠道实现商业化落地。”

But whereas “Star Wars” started as a movie and became a major merchandising success, that model has been inverted lately.

但《星球大战》是先有电影，再有周边衍生品的大获成功，而近年来，这套模式被反转了。

“Now you come up first with the merchandise and then you retrofit some sort of cinematic universe or some television show around the toys,” said Luke McDonagh, a professor at the London School of Economics who researches intellectual property law.

伦敦政治经济学院知识产权法研究教授卢克·麦克多纳说：“现在是先打造出周边商品，再围绕这些玩具构建一套电影宇宙或者电视剧集。”

That strategy has paid huge dividends. “The Lego Movie,” made by Warner Bros. and the Lego Group, took in nearly $500 million at the global box office in 2014, and was followed by a sequel and two spinoffs. Paramount Pictures and Hasbro have turned the Transformers action-figure line into a $5 billion big-screen franchise.

这套策略已带来了巨额回报。华纳兄弟与乐高集团联合制作的《乐高大电影》(The Lego Movie)2014年全球票房近5亿美元，后续还推出了一部续集与两部衍生片。派拉蒙影业与孩之宝则将变形金刚动作玩具系列打造成了票房累计50亿美元的大银幕系列。

The toy company Mattel has moved to turn its brands into full-fledged entertainment brands, including “Barbie,” the live-action adventure starring Margot Robbie that earned nearly $1.5 billion. A “Polly Pocket” movie, co-produced by Reese Witherspoon’s production company, is in the works.

玩具公司美泰已着手将旗下品牌打造为成熟的娱乐品牌，其中就包括玛格特·罗比主演、斩获近15亿美元票房的真人冒险电影《芭比》(Barbie)。由瑞茜·威瑟斯彭的制片公司联合出品的《波利口袋》(Polly Pocket)电影也已在筹备中。

导演保罗·金与Labubu的创作者龙家升。

“Characters are now the most valuable kind of intellectual property,” said Dev Gangjee, a professor of intellectual property law at the University of Oxford. “They straddle all these formats.”

牛津大学知识产权法教授戴夫·甘吉说：“角色是目前最具价值的知识产权类型，它们能横跨所有内容形态。”

The commercial successes and the critical acclaim of many of these movies have changed the dynamics of how these kinds of projects are perceived.

许多这类影片叫好又叫座，也彻底改变了人们对这类项目的认知。

“‘The Lego Movie’ helped break the mold,” Dr. McDonagh said, partly because the toys were already well-loved and well-known among multiple generations.

麦克多纳表示：“《乐高大电影》打破了固有看法，一部分原因在于，这款玩具早已为几代人喜爱和熟知。”

“It established the principle that you could do something that’s so incredibly commercially minded,” he said. “In another era it would have been seen as selling out.”

“它确立了一个准则：你可以做一个商业属性极强的作品。放在过去，这种做法会被视为出卖原则。”

There is also a certain safety for movie executives in creating films about characters that already have a sizable following, Dr. McDonagh said. “These Labubu dolls have been such a success among a certain demographic of children and young adults, they know there’s an audience out there for content related to these dolls,” he said.

麦克多纳博士称，对于片方高管而言，围绕已经拥有庞大粉丝基础的角色拍电影，本身也具备一定的安全性。“Labubu玩偶在特定的儿童与年轻人群体中已经大获成功，片方清楚，和这些玩偶相关的内容存在受众基础。”

As collectors around the world know, Labubu dolls are fuzzy little Nordic elves with snaggletoothed, mischievous grins and impish ears. They’re female and kindhearted. Sometimes they get into trouble. The dolls belong to a tribe called the Monsters.

全球的收藏者都熟知，Labubu是一群毛茸茸的北欧小精灵，一口龅牙、挂着调皮的坏笑，还有一对精灵耳。它们是女性，心地善良，偶尔会惹点小麻烦，隶属于名为“精灵天团”的家族。

Labubus were conceived as characters in a children’s book series in 2015 by Kasing Lung, an artist who was born in Hong Kong. In 2019, Mr. Lung signed a partnership with Pop Mart to turn the storybook elves into collectible designer toys, starting with a line of figurines.

Labubu是香港出生的艺术家龙家升在2015年的一套儿童绘本系列中创造的角色。2019年，龙家升与泡泡玛特达成合作，将绘本里的小精灵打造成可收藏的设计师潮玩，首款产品是一系列手办。

The dolls quickly became a major hit, driving Pop Mart’s stocks to soar. Each time a new doll has been released, it has sold out online within minutes.

这款玩偶迅速爆红，带动泡泡玛特股价暴涨。每一次新款发售，线上都会在几分钟内售罄。

Communities have evolved around the toothy elves, which have been spotted dangling off luxury handbags and count Rihanna, Dua Lipa and Naomi Osaka as fans.

围绕这个露着牙齿的小精灵，已经形成了一系列粉丝社群，常常可以看到它被挂在奢品手袋上，蕾哈娜、杜阿·利帕、大坂直美等名人都是它的粉丝。

去年9月的美网公开赛，大坂直美的包上挂着一个Labubu玩偶。

A successful movie could add more legitimacy and popularity to the toys, Dr. McDonagh said. “The idea of a Labubu movie seems like a joke right now, but maybe it will be a creative triumph.”

麦克多纳表示，一部成功的电影，能让这款潮玩获得更高的认可度与人气。“目前Labubu电影这个想法听起来有点像个玩笑，但它或许会成为一次创意上的胜利。”

The endeavor is not entirely risk-free, experts said: If the movie is a flop, it could hurt sales and have the opposite effect. “Super Mario Bros.,” a 1993 movie about the popular video game, or the 2007 film “Bratz: The Movie” are examples. (A more recent film, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” earned more than $1.3 billion worldwide in 2023.)

专家也表示，这次尝试并非全无风险：如果电影搞砸了，可能会反噬产品销量，起到反效果。1993年改编自热门游戏的《超级马里奥兄弟》(Super Mario Bros.)真人电影、2007年的《布拉茨娃娃电影》(Bratz: The Movie)，都是例证——而2023年的新版《超级马里奥兄弟大电影》(The Super Mario Bros. Movie)，全球票房突破13亿美元。

The creation of a Labubu movie is clearly meant at least in part to be a commercial boost for the toy, intellectual property experts said.

知识产权领域专家称，打造Labubu电影，显然至少在一定程度上是为了给该玩具带来商业上的提振。

“It’s completely ruthless marketing, no question about that,” Dr. McDonagh said. But, he added: “If you get the creative work right, audiences are willing to look past that. They’re willing to go along with a good movie.”

“这是彻头彻尾的商业营销，这一点毋庸置疑，”麦克多纳说。但他补充说：“只要创作内容足够出色，观众愿意忽略这一点，他们愿意接受一部好电影。”

President Trump has created the conditions for another quagmire in the Middle East, and the question is whether American military excellence can rescue him from his own impulsiveness and incompetence.

特朗普总统已经为中东的又一个泥潭创造了条件，现在的悬念在于，美国卓越的军事实力能否将他从自身的冲动与无能中拯救出来。

Here is the present situation, in a nutshell: The United States and Israel have established absolute air dominance over the nation of Iran. In a few short days, our combined forces have destroyed Iran’s ability to protect its own airspace, have killed much of Iran’s senior military and civilian leadership, and have sunk much of Iran’s navy.

简单来说，目前的情况是这样的：美国和以色列已经在伊朗上空建立了绝对制空权。在短短几天内，联军摧毁了伊朗保卫本国领空的能力，消灭了伊朗相当一部分高级军政领导人，并重创了它的海军力量。

At the same time, the United States and Israel are damaging Iran’s nuclear program from the air, and they are destroying Iran’s ability to manufacture and deploy ballistic missiles. They are also attacking the internal security forces that maintain the Iranian regime’s hold on the population.

与此同时，美以正通过空袭破坏伊朗的核计划，摧毁其制造和部署弹道导弹的能力。他们还在攻击那些维持伊朗政权对民众控制的内部安全部队。

The intention of the air campaign is clear: to destroy the regime’s capacity to harm its neighbors while also creating the conditions for a revolution on the ground.

这场空中行动的意图十分明确：既要削弱伊朗政权伤害邻国的能力，也要为地面发生革命创造条件。

If that’s the extent of the military mission, the military is accomplishing it with remarkable efficiency. Iran is being badly battered. Even if the war ended today, it would take years for the Iranian military to fully recover from the losses it has suffered so far.

如果此次军事任务仅限于此，那么军方执行得相当高效。伊朗正遭受沉重打击。即便战争今天结束，伊朗军队也需要数年时间才能从目前的损失中完全恢复。

While Iran’s drones and missiles have inflicted damage on American forces and our allies, that damage is far less than what the U.S. and Israel have inflicted on Iran. There are no confirmed reports of Iran shooting down any American or Israeli aircraft (it has destroyed a number of drones), and it hasn’t yet sunk a single American or Israeli warship.

虽然伊朗的无人机和导弹也对美军及其盟友造成了一定损害，但远不及美以对伊朗造成的破坏。目前没有确认的报道显示伊朗击落过任何一架美国或以色列战机（它确实摧毁了一些无人机），也未击沉任何一艘美军或以色列军舰。

So why, then, is Trump lashing out at American allies? Why was he “shocked” that Iran struck Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in response to American attacks?

那么，特朗普为何还要严厉斥责美国的盟友？当伊朗袭击沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋和科威特以报复美军攻击时，他为何感到“震惊”？

Perhaps the answer lies in a Wall Street Journal report from last Friday. According to The Journal, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Trump that Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz and Trump shrugged off the threat and launched the attack anyway.

答案或许可以从《华尔街日报》上周五的一篇报道中找到。报道称，美军参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军曾警告特朗普，伊朗可能试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但特朗普对这一威胁嗤之以鼻，坚持发动进攻。

“He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait,” The Journal wrote, “and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.”

“他告诉团队，德黑兰很可能在封锁海峡之前就会投降，”《华尔街日报》写道，“即便伊朗真的尝试这么做，美军也能搞定。”

But Iran did not capitulate. There is no real sign the regime is in danger of falling. Instead, it has effectively closed the strait, and it’s reportedly done so without choking off its own oil exports. In other words, while other nations can’t ship oil through the strait, Iran still is.

但伊朗并未屈服。目前没有明显迹象表明该政权面临崩溃。相反，它实际上已经有效封锁了这条海峡，而且据称是在没有阻断自身石油出口的情况下做到的。换句话说，当其他国家无法通过海峡运送石油时，伊朗仍然可以。

Iran may not be able to seriously damage Israel with its missiles (though a few missiles have gotten through Israel’s defenses and killed Israeli civilians), and it may not be able to sink American ships, but it can still potentially plunge the world economy into a state of crisis. It could well emerge from the conflict with its regime intact (and perhaps even more hard-line) and its power over the world economy undiminished.

伊朗的导弹或许无法对以色列造成严重破坏（尽管确实有少数导弹突破了以色列的防御系统，造成以色列平民死亡），也无法击沉美国军舰，但它仍然有可能让世界经济陷入危机。冲突结束后，其政权可能依然完好无损（甚至可能更加强硬），对世界经济的控制力也未削弱。

In a recent post, the Institute for the Study of War described the problem well: “A weakened regime that remains in power after this war would be able to disrupt shipping whenever and for however long it pleases with little effort if its current, relatively limited, strike campaign on shipping proves sufficient to cause the U.S. and Israel to surrender.”

战争研究所最近在一篇贴文中很好地描述了这个问题：“如果它目前针对航运相对有限的打击行动就足以让美以屈服的话，那么一个在战后依然掌权的遭到削弱的政权，将能够随心所欲地干扰航运，且几乎不费吹灰之力。”

“A failure to demonstrate the will and ability to deny Iran the ability to disrupt traffic,” it wrote, “will make it enormously harder to deter Iran from future disruptions.”

“如果不能展示出阻止伊朗破坏航运的意愿和能力，”文章写道，“未来将更难威慑伊朗再次进行破坏。”

That’s the logic that leads to a quagmire. If America declares victory now, when the Iranian regime is still in power and the strait is closed, then Iran perversely can claim that it won. It took a huge punch, absorbed the blow, and still forced America to climb down. It employed its ultimate weapon — closing the strait — and America had no effective answer.

这正是走向泥潭的逻辑。如果美国现在宣布胜利，而伊朗政权依然存在、海峡仍被封锁，那么伊朗反而可以宣称自己获胜。它承受了重击，挺住了伤害，却仍迫使美国退让。它动用了终极武器——封锁海峡，而美国却没有有效应对之策。

Commit to opening the strait (and keeping it open) by force, and the U.S. may well find itself in yet another open-ended, costly conflict with at least some American soldiers on Iranian soil. This would be war on our enemy’s terms and terrain, with the potential of slowly but surely inflicting casualties and costs on the American military until we grow tired of the conflict and leave.

如果美国决心通过武力重新开放（并维持开放）该海峡，那么很可能会再次陷入一场旷日持久、代价高昂的冲突，甚至可能有美国士兵踏上伊朗领土。这将是一场在对手设定的条件和地盘上进行的战争，它有可能缓慢但确定无疑地给美军带来伤亡和消耗，直到我们厌倦冲突而离开。

The only way to cut this Gordian knot is with a military miracle — a fast campaign with minimal casualties that can quickly reopen the strait, minimize harm to the international economy and leave Iran almost entirely toothless, unable to inflict military or economic damage on its foes.

破解这个难题的唯一办法是创造一场军事奇迹——一场速战速决、伤亡最小的战役，迅速重新开放海峡，将全球经济受到的冲击降到最低，并让伊朗几乎彻底失去反击能力，无法再对对手造成军事或经济伤害。

Trump’s recklessness has left the United States with few good options. Indeed, the dilemma America now faces is a perfect illustration of why Trump should have taken his case for war to the Congress and the American people before he fired the first missile.

特朗普的鲁莽让美国几乎没有好的选择。事实上，美国目前面临的困境完美诠释了为什么特朗普在发射第一枚导弹之前，本该向国会和美国人民陈述他的开战理由。

I’ve had friends ask me, “Well, if he didn’t think Congress would approve, what do you expect him to do? Sit on his hands?” The answer is simple: The Constitution doesn’t give the president the power to disregard Congress. So, no, don’t go to war if you can’t get Congress to approve.

有朋友问我：“好吧，如果他觉得国会不会批准，你指望他怎么做？难道什么都不做吗？”答案很简单：宪法没有赋予总统无视国会的权力。所以，是的，如果不能获得国会批准，就不要发动战争。

And if a Republican president can’t get a Republican Congress to support his war, perhaps that provides even more reason to doubt the wisdom of the conflict.

如果一位共和党总统甚至无法说服共和党控制的国会支持他的战争，那么也许这更有理由让人怀疑这场冲突是否明智。

Had he made the case for war, he could have prepared the people for potential economic hardship. He would have been forced to precisely define our war aims and the means he’d choose to pursue those aims. Had he not alienated key allies through economic warfare and threats to seize Greenland, it could have been easier to assemble, in advance, an allied force to protect the Strait of Hormuz.

如果他当初就战争的必要性给出过阐述，他本可以让民众对潜在的经济困境做好心理准备。他将被迫精确地定义我们的战争目标，以及他选择用来实现这些目标的手段。如果他没有通过经济战和“夺取格陵兰岛”的威胁来疏远关键盟友，那么提前组建一支联合部队来保护霍尔木兹海峡本会容易得多。

Instead, Trump launched a major war on his own initiative while announcing competing and potentially contradictory war aims. Is the goal regime change? Unconditional surrender? Or is it much narrower — the destruction of Iran’s missile and drone forces, sinking its navy, stopping its nuclear program and destroying its ability to wage war through its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and the kaleidoscope of allied militias in Syria and Iraq.

相反，特朗普在自行发起一场大规模战争的同时，宣布了相互冲突甚至可能自相矛盾的战争目标。目标是政权更迭吗？是无条件投降吗？还是更具体的目标——摧毁伊朗的导弹和无人机部队，击沉其海军，停止其核计划，并摧毁其通过代理人部队（包括真主党、哈马斯、胡塞武装以及叙利亚和伊拉克境内错综复杂的盟友民兵组织）发动战争的能力？

The Iranian regime, by contrast, has a single, simple theory of victory: Survive. If the regime is still standing at the end of the conflict, then Iran lives to fight again. And if it survives at least in part through closing the Strait of Hormuz, then it knows exactly how to fight again.

相比之下，伊朗政权只有一个简单而明确的胜利理论：生存。如果战争结束时政权依然屹立不倒，那么伊朗就能重整旗鼓。如果它至少部分通过关闭霍尔木兹海峡而存活下来，那么它就确切地知道下一次该如何战斗。

Even when wars are carefully planned, with allies brought on board and a majority of the public in support, they are still highly volatile and unpredictable. The best analysts in the world can be confounded by the way events actually unfold. For example, we are now in the fifth year of a war in Ukraine that many people expected would end in few days.

即使是经过周密计划、拉拢盟友并获得多数民众支持的战争，依然极具波动性和不可预测性。世界上最顶尖的分析师也可能被事态的实际演变所迷惑。例如，我们现在正处于乌克兰战争的第五年，而许多人最初曾预计这场战争在几天内就会结束。

The best way to analyze events isn’t to ask, “Will this plan succeed?” but rather, “Have you created the conditions for success?” And, “Have you carefully considered what happens next?”

分析事件的最佳方式不是问“这个计划会成功吗？”，而是问：“你是否创造了成功的条件？”以及“你是否仔细考虑了接下来会发生什么？”

In the military context that can mean that your troops are well supplied, well trained, well led and acting according to a solid, achievable battle plan. You can still fail under those circumstances, but your chances of failure are far less.

在军事语境下，这意味着你的部队补给充足、训练有素、领导得力，并根据稳健且可实现的作战计划行动。在这种情况下你仍可能失败，但失败的机会要小得多。

My great concern is that Trump has created the conditions for failure. He has taken our well-supplied, well-trained and well-led troops and has deployed them on a mission that lacks clear public support (especially compared to previous American wars), lacks clearly defined objectives, and may not ultimately be achievable without a large-scale escalation.

我最大的担忧是，特朗普创造了失败的条件。他带着我们补给充足、训练有素、领导得力的部队，将他们投入到一项缺乏明确公众支持（尤其是与以往美国战争相比）、缺乏明确目标且如果不进行大规模升级可能最终无法实现的使命中。

And now, dismayed that the war has not resulted in the regime’s immediate capitulation or destruction, he’s flailing about, once again threatening the viability of NATO if our allies don’t come and bail him out from a war they did not start and did not ask for.

而现在，由于对战争没能导致伊朗政权的立即投降或毁灭感到沮丧，他开始手忙脚乱，再次威胁北约的生存，要求盟友们来解救他——而这场战争既不是盟友挑起的，也不是他们想要的。

As an American, I want our forces to succeed, once they are committed. I want to see the military open the Strait of Hormuz as quickly and painlessly as possible. I want to see the Iranian regime collapse and replaced by a democracy. That regime is loathsome. It’s an enemy of the United States. It deserves to fall. If it does, I will cheer its demise.

作为一名美国人，一旦部队投入战斗，我希望他们获胜。我希望看到军方尽可能迅速且无痛地打通霍尔木兹海峡。我希望看到伊朗政权垮台并被民主政体取代。那个政权是可憎的，是美国的敌人，它理应倒台。如果它倒了，我会为其灭亡而欢呼。

At the same time, however, my patriotism can’t blind me to reality. This is not how our democracy should go to war. Trump is not the right man to lead our nation into battle. People I respect applaud Trump for his courage in taking on Iran. But I don’t see courage. I see recklessness. I see thoughtlessness.

然而与此同时，我的爱国情怀不能让我无视现实。这不应该是我们民主国家走向战争的方式。特朗普不是领导国家走向战场的合适人选。一些人赞扬特朗普对抗伊朗的勇气，对此我表示尊重，但我看到的不是勇气，而是鲁莽，是轻率。

I see a man who plunged a nation into a conflict without fully comprehending the risks. I see a man full of hubris after achieving success in much more limited military engagements. And he’s now counting on two of the world’s most competent militaries to essentially bail him out.

我看到的是一个人在没有完全理解风险的情况下将国家推向冲突。我看到的是一个在取得极其有限的军事成功后满脑子傲慢的人。他现在正指望世界上最精锐的两支军队来替他收拾残局。

He’s counting on them accomplishing a mission without clear precedent in military history: destroying a hostile regime and forcing its compliance entirely from the air and sea, and to do so quickly enough that the economic pain doesn’t overshadow the military gains. Previous successful aerial campaigns, such as NATO’s campaigns in the Balkans and the allied campaign in Libya, were supplemented by local allied ground forces who could take and hold the land.

他指望他们在没有军事史先例的情况下完成一项任务：完全依靠空军和海军摧毁一个敌对政权并迫使其屈服，而且动作要快到让经济阵痛不至于掩盖军事胜利。此前成功的空中战役，如北约在巴尔干半岛的行动和盟军在利比亚的行动，都有当地盟友地面部队的补充，从而能占领并守住土地。

Or he can just declare “victory” and try to extricate the United States from the fight. He can point to the smoking ruins of the Iranian military and say that we’ve accomplished something substantial. We’ve “mowed the grass,” to use a term applied to Israeli counterterror operations before the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas.

或者，他可以干脆宣布“胜利”，并试图让美国从战斗中抽身。他可以指着伊朗军队的废墟说，我们已经取得了一些实质性的成就。我们已经“修剪了草坪”——这是以色列在哈马斯去年10月7日袭击之前，对其反恐行动所使用的术语。

In other words, you may not have defeated the enemy, but you’ve hurt the enemy, and it will take years for it to recover. In fact, there are signs that the administration is moving to exactly that position. Its messaging has begun to slide from regime change and “unconditional surrender” to objectives that look a lot like mowing the grass — damaging the Iranian military enough that it will take considerable time to rebuild.

换句话说，你可能没有击败敌人，但你重创了敌人，它需要数年时间才能恢复。事实上，有迹象表明政府正在转向这一立场。它的调门已经从政权更迭和“无条件投降”滑向了看起来极像“修草坪”的目标——即重创伊朗军力，使其在相当长的时间内无法重建。

But Oct. 7 should have demonstrated to all of us that mowing the grass doesn’t make anyone safer. Instead it prolongs the conflict. It hardens the combatants. It plants the seeds for vengeance. Israel should know this now, and we should know it as well.

但10月7日的事件应该向我们所有人证明，“修草坪”并不能改善任何人的安全。相反，它延长了冲突，使战斗人员变得更强硬，并播下了复仇的种子。以色列现在应该明白这一点，我们也应该明白。

When Saddam Hussein faced a catastrophic defeat during Operation Desert Storm, he doubled down. He tried to kill George H.W. Bush, he supported the second intifada against Israel, his troops fired on American pilots. He harbored terrorists. Defeat did not make him any less of an enemy to the United States, and in 2003 we fought him again, in a much longer and bloodier war.

当萨达姆·侯赛因在“沙漠风暴”行动中面临惨败时，他变本加厉。他试图刺杀老布什，支持针对以色列的第二次大起义，他的部队向美国飞行员开火，他窝藏恐怖分子。失败并没有让他减少对美国的敌意。到了2003年，我们再次与他开战，那是一场漫长得多、也血腥得多的战争。

Trump has only himself to blame. He led America into an unconstitutional war. And now he’s compounding that sin by proving to be every bit as reckless a commander as he is a president.

特朗普只能怪他自己。他领导美国进入了一场违宪的战争。而现在，他正在变本加厉，证明自己不仅是一个鲁莽的总统，更是一个彻头彻尾的鲁莽统帅。

For decades, American presidents have avoided speaking harshly about Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, eager to focus instead on deepening ties with Tokyo, which has been a steadfast ally since World War II.

数十年来，美国历任总统都避免对日本1941年袭击珍珠港一事发表严厉言论，而是热衷深化与东京的关系——二战后，日本始终是美国坚定的盟友。

Not so with President Trump.

特朗普总统却并非如此。

At an otherwise congenial meeting with Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in the Oval Office on Thursday, Mr. Trump invoked the Japanese attack on Dec. 7, 1941, which led the United States into World War II. He was responding to a question about why Japan and other allies had received no advance notice of the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran.

周四，特朗普在椭圆形办公室与日本首相高市早苗会面，原本气氛融洽，期间特朗普提起了1941年12月7日日本发动的袭击，正是这场袭击导致美国卷入第二次世界大战。当时他正在回应一个提问，涉及为何美以对伊朗发动袭击之前，没有向日本等盟友提前通报。

“We didn’t tell anybody about it because we wanted surprise,” he said. “Who knows better about surprise than Japan, OK? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK? Right?”

“我们没告诉任何人，就是要出其不意，”他说。“谁比日本更懂出其不意呢，对吧？珍珠港事件，你们怎么没提前告诉我？对吧？”

There was some laughter from the officials and journalists gathered in the room. “You believe in surprise, I think, much more so than us,” he added.

在场的官员与记者中传来几声笑。他接着说：“我看，你们比我们更相信出其不意。”

As Mr. Trump spoke, Ms. Takaichi widened her eyes and appeared to take a deep breath. She kept her arms crossed in her lap and did not speak.

特朗普说话时，高市早苗瞪大了双眼，似乎深吸了一口气。她双臂交叉放在腿上，全程一言不发。

The remark was the latest example of Mr. Trump’s penchant for tossing aside diplomatic norms.

这番言论再次体现了特朗普一贯无视外交惯例的行事风格。

After the end of World War II, President Harry S. Truman used the attack on Pearl Harbor to justify American efforts to remake Japanese society and to impose a pacifist Constitution. (The United States led the Allies’ occupation of Japan from 1945 until 1952.) The Constitution forced Japan to renounce war and put limits on its military, making Tokyo reliant on the United States for protection.

二战结束后，杜鲁门总统以珍珠港遇袭为由，推动美国重塑日本社会，并向日本施加了一部和平宪法。（1945年至1952年，美国领导了盟军对日本的军事占领。）这部宪法迫使日本放弃战争，限制其军事力量发展，让东京在防务上不得不依赖美国。

But during the Cold War, the United States shifted its official portrayal of the attack, describing it as a historical tragedy rather than pointing fingers at Japan. American officials were eager to keep Tokyo as an ally as communism spread in Asia, and to form security and economic pacts.

但冷战期间，美国调整了对此次袭击的官方表述，将其描述为一场历史悲剧，而非指责日本。随着共产主义在亚洲蔓延，美国官员迫切希望将日本留在盟友阵营，与日本缔结安全与经济协定。

In 2016, 75 years after Imperial Japanese warplanes destroyed the Pacific fleet in Pearl Harbor, President Barack Obama visited the site of the attack with Shinzo Abe, then Japan’s prime minister, who offered condolences “to the souls of those who lost their lives here.” Mr. Obama and Mr. Abe laid wreaths made of white peace lilies at the memorial.

2016年，也就是日本帝国战机在珍珠港摧毁美国太平洋舰队75周年之际，时任美国总统奥巴马与时任日本首相安倍晋三一同造访了袭击遗址。安倍晋三向“在此遇难的英灵” 致以哀悼，二人还在纪念碑前献上了白色和平百合花环。

Mr. Obama described in detail what occurred on the day of the attack, highlighted acts of heroism by American service members and said that the visit of Mr. Abe “reminds us of what is possible between nations and between peoples.”

奥巴马详细讲述了遇袭当天的事件经过，重点讲述了美军士兵的英勇事迹，并表示安倍晋三的此次到访“让我们看到国家与人民之间，能够达成怎样的可能”。

Mr. Trump’s predecessors have avoided speaking at length about Pearl Harbor in the presence of Japanese leaders because “there’s been a really profound process of reconciliation between the United States and Japan,” said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会亚洲政策研究中心主任米雷娅·索利斯表示，特朗普的历任前任都会避免在日本领导人面前大谈珍珠港事件，因为“美日两国之间已经走过了一段极其深刻的和解历程”。

Mr. Trump’s remarks were “unusual — a shock,” she said. “The purpose of this visit is to emphasize the shared vision — the strong bonds that unite Japan and the United States,” she said. “Not the divisive past and the bitter rivalry and conflict of the war.”

特朗普的此番言论“不同寻常——令人震惊，”她说。“此次访问的核心目的是强调两国的共同愿景——联结美日两国的牢固纽带，”她说。“而不是那些制造分裂的过往，以及战争年代的尖锐对立与冲突。”

President Trump has taken on many ancillary roles in Washington: chairman of the Kennedy Center. The de facto chief architect of the city’s landmark properties. And now, the nation’s chief intelligence analyst.

特朗普总统在华盛顿承担了许多附带角色：肯尼迪中心的主席、这座城市的地标建筑的实际首席建筑师，而现在，他又成了美国的首席情报分析师。

This revelation came from Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence. She had the unenviable task at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Wednesday of squaring Mr. Trump’s comments about an urgent nuclear threat from Iran with a letter from one of her trusted aides that the country posed no “imminent threat.”

这一说法出自国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德。她在周三的参议院情报委员会听证会上面临棘手任务：一方面特朗普称伊朗构成“迫在眉睫核威胁”，另一方面，她信赖的一位助手又在信中称美国并不面临“迫在眉睫的威胁”，她需要给出一个合理的解释。

Her answer? Only the president can decide what is an “imminent” threat. In other words, she was turning one of the key roles of the intelligence community’s 80,000 employees — to make nonpolitical judgments about threats to American security — over to Mr. Trump.

她的回答是？只有总统才有权决定什么是“迫在眉睫”的威胁。换句话说，她把情报界8万名雇员的核心职责之一——对美国安全威胁作出非政治化的判断——交给了特朗普。

Ms. Gabbard’s comments were necessitated by the decision of Joe Kent, her close adviser, to quit his counterterrorism position over his opposition to the war in Iran and his belief that Israel had pressured the United States into the conflict.

加巴德的这番表态是由她的亲信乔·肯特决定辞去反恐部门职位所引发的。肯特反对伊朗战争，并认为美国是在以色列施压下卷入冲突的。

Democrats, long critical of Mr. Kent and his penchant for conspiracy theories, jumped on his comments about the war — creating at least a short-term communications crisis for the Trump administration. “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” Mr. Kent wrote in a letter to Mr. Trump. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation.”

长期批评肯特及其阴谋论倾向的民主党人迅速抓住他对战争的评论，至少在短期内给特朗普政府制造了传播危机。“我无法昧着良心支持目前这场对伊朗的战争，”肯特在给特朗普的信中写道。“伊朗对我国并不构成迫在眉睫的威胁。”

Ms. Gabbard does not quickly turn on her allies, and she showed little desire to throw Mr. Kent under the bus or attack him. But she has remained in her position by being a careful student of Mr. Trump, and knows how to stay on his good side. And critiquing the president’s view of the threat from Iran was clearly not the way to keep your job.

加巴德不会轻易背弃盟友，她也基本没有表现出要抛弃肯特或攻击他的意愿。但她能保住职位，靠的是对特朗普的仔细观察和揣摩，知道如何不招惹他。而批评总统对伊朗威胁的看法显然不利于保住自己的工作。

So she came up with her line that it is Mr. Trump, not the intelligence community, that determines what constitutes a threat.

于是她抛出了这个说法：决定何为威胁的是特朗普总统，而不是情报界。

It was Senator Jon Ossoff, Democrat of Georgia, who pressed Ms. Gabbard the hardest on whether there was “imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime.”

佐治亚州民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫是对加巴德施压最猛烈的人，他追问伊朗政权是否构成“迫在眉睫的核威胁”。

“Yes or no?” he demanded.

“是或否？”他逼问道。

Ms. Gabbard was ready with an answer. “It is not a responsibility of the intelligence community to determine what is or is not an imminent threat,” she said.

加巴德早已准备好答案。“判断是否存在迫在眉睫威胁，并非情报界的职责，”她说。

The senator, speaking over Ms. Gabbard, rejected the answer: “It is precisely your responsibility to determine what constitutes a threat to the United States.”

参议员打断她的话，反驳道：“这恰恰是你的职责——判断什么构成对美国的威胁。”

In fact, while the president has broad authority to interpret intelligence any way he deems proper, Mr. Ossoff was right: At the National Intelligence University, which trains the intelligence agencies’ future leaders, there is a large body of literature about the art and science of providing warning (although Ms. Gabbard has ordered the university merged with another government school).

事实上，虽然总统拥有广泛的权力，可以按自己认为合适的方式解读情报，但奥索夫是对的：在培训情报机构未来领导者的国家情报大学，有大量关于预警艺术与科学的文献（尽管加巴德已下令将该大学并入另一所政府学校）。

John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director who has no love lost for Mr. Kent, chose a different tactic in answering questions about the threat posed by Iran.

对肯特并无好感的中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫在回答有关伊朗威胁的问题时选择了不同的策略。

“I think Iran has been a constant threat to the United States for an extended period of time and posed an immediate threat at this time,” Mr. Ratcliffe said.

“我认为伊朗长期以来一直是美国的持续威胁，现在也构成了直接威胁，”拉特克利夫说。

Mr. Ratcliffe, far more adept than his predecessors at facing congressional questioning and still staying on Mr. Trump’s good side, also said that Iran was a destabilizing force in the Middle East, “one that has frankly been watered, fed and nurtured by policies of prior administrations” that “allowed them to become the threat that they are.”

拉特克利夫比前任们更擅长面对国会质询，同时还能保住特朗普对他的好感。他还表示，伊朗是中东的破坏性力量，“坦白说，前几届政府的政策浇水、施肥、培育了他们，才让他们成为如今的威胁”。

Intelligence officials took pains at a hearing on Wednesday to avoid answering direct questions about what intelligence they provided to the president before the decision to strike as well as direct assessments of how the war was going.

在周三的听证会上，情报官员们极力避免直接回答在打击决定前向总统提供了什么情报，以及对战争进展的直接评估。

But Ms. Gabbard offered the smallest bit of insight in her opening statement when she said that the Iranian leadership had been “largely degraded” by U.S. and Israeli attacks but that the government “appears to be intact.”

但加巴德在开场陈述中还是透露了一点信息：她表示伊朗领导层已被美国和以色列的攻击“大幅削弱”，但政府“似乎未受影响”。

Still, there were some noticeable differences between what Ms. Gabbard read aloud and what she submitted to lawmakers.

不过，她宣读的内容与提交给议员的书面版本之间存在一些明显差异。

In her statement, Ms. Gabbard said Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was “obliterated” in strikes last year, echoing Mr. Trump. There have been “no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability,” her written statement said.

在声明中，加巴德说伊朗的核浓缩项目已在去年的打击中“被摧毁”，与特朗普的说法一致。书面陈述称，“此后没有出现任何试图重建浓缩能力的努力。”

In her oral testimony, Ms. Gabbard said something quite different. Intelligence agencies assessed that before the current war, she said, “Iran was trying to recover from the severe damage to its nuclear infrastructure.”

但在口头证词中，加巴德说了截然不同的话。她表示，情报机构评估认为，在当前战争之前，“伊朗一直在试图从核基础设施的严重破坏中恢复。”

Called out on the discrepancy by Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the committee, Ms. Gabbard said she had truncated her comments because they were running long. Mr. Warner snapped back that she “chose to omit the parts that contradict the president.”

弗吉尼亚州民主党人、委员会资深民主党人马克·沃纳参议员指出这一矛盾后，加巴德解释说，她因为时间过长而缩短了发言。沃纳反击道，她“故意省略了那些与总统说法相矛盾的部分”。

House lawmakers will have their own opportunity to ask questions Thursday, when the intelligence chiefs appear before them.

众议院议员将于周四获得自己的提问机会，届时各情报部门负责人会前来接受他们的质询。

Israeli settlers beat a Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank, stripped him naked, tied his arms and legs and then zip-tied his penis, he, his family members and another witness said on Wednesday.

周三，一名巴勒斯坦男子及其家属，以及另一名目击者称，在被占领的约旦河西岸，以色列定居者对该男子实施了殴打，将他全身剥光，捆绑手脚，还用扎带勒住他的生殖器。

“I thought I was going to die,” the man, Suhaib Abualkebash, a 29-year-old shepherd, told The New York Times. “I thought this was the end.”

“我当时以为自己死定了，”这名29岁的牧羊人苏海布·阿布阿尔卡巴什对《纽约时报》说。“我以为这就是我的末日。”

Several family members and an American woman corroborated details of Mr. Abualkebash’s account, saying they witnessed the sexual assault on Friday by several men among a group of more than 20 settlers who marauded though a Bedouin encampment. The relatives and the American said they had been beaten, too, adding that the assailants had kicked and slapped children during the attack. Family members also shared copies of reports they had filed to the Israeli police.

多名家属与一名美国女性证实了阿布阿尔卡巴什所述事件的细节。他们称周五有20多名定居者洗劫了一处贝都因人营地，其中数人对阿布阿尔卡巴什实施了性侵，他们目睹了这一过程。这些家属与这名美国女性表示，他们也遭到了殴打，袭击者在施暴过程中还对儿童拳打脚踢。家属们还提供了他们向以色列警方提交报案记录的副本。

Israeli settlers have been waging an escalating campaign of violence and land theft against Palestinians across much of the West Bank. It has intensified as Israeli attitudes toward Palestinians have hardened since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and the war that ensued.

以色列定居者针对约旦河西岸大部分地区巴勒斯坦人发起暴力与土地掠夺行动，长期以来愈演愈烈。2023年10月7日哈马斯对以色列南部发动袭击、随后战争爆发以来，以色列社会对巴勒斯坦人的态度日趋强硬，这类暴力行动也随之升级。

The attacks have increased while international attention has been focused on the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Settlers have killed seven West Bank Palestinians so far this year, six of them since the war began on Feb. 28.

在国际社会的注意力集中于美以对伊朗的战争期间，此类袭击事件愈发频繁。今年以来，定居者已在约旦河西岸杀害七名巴勒斯坦人，其中六人遇害是在2月28日战争爆发之后。

左侧是阿布阿尔卡巴，姻亲尼哈亚坐在他身旁；妻子尼亚马站立着，怀中抱着女儿马纳尔；还有他们的另一个女儿、几位侄女和一位姑妈。除了一位在袭击发生时不在场的姑妈外，其余人都表示自己遭到了袭击。

The Israeli police, who are responsible for looking into crimes committed by Israelis in the West Bank, opened an investigation into the attack in Khirbet Humsa but did not respond immediately to requests for comment. They say they act against any violence, but have largely failed to bring violent settlers to justice.

负责调查以色列人在约旦河西岸罪行的以色列警方已对这起发生在希贝特·哈姆萨的袭击事件立案调查，但未立即回应媒体的置评请求。以色列警方称会对所有暴力行为采取行动，但迄今为止，基本未能将施暴的定居者绳之以法。

A police record showed that the episode was being investigated as a sexual assault, an attack on a helpless person and a crime motivated by racism, among other potential charges.

警方记录显示，这起事件正以性侵、袭击无反抗能力人员、种族主义动机犯罪等多项潜在罪名展开调查。

Mr. Abualkebash said the assault capped a night of terror for him, his wife, their three daughters, his brother Muhammad, Muhammad’s wife, their seven children, his father and his uncle. All were beaten, the adults said, except a sleeping 4-month-old baby.

阿布阿尔卡巴什说，这场袭击让他、妻子、三个女儿，兄弟穆罕默德、兄弟的妻子和七个孩子，还有他的父亲与叔叔经历了整晚的恐怖。所有成年人均表示，除了一名熟睡的四个月大婴儿，所有人都遭到了殴打。

The settlers also stole the family’s 400 sheep — its entire livelihood — along with wedding rings and other jewelry, cellphones, cash and identification papers, the family members said.

家庭成员称，定居者还偷走了他们家里的400只羊——这是他们全部的生计来源，还有婚戒等各类首饰、手机、现金与身份证件。

Ava Lang, a 24-year-old American human rights activist who witnessed the attack, said she had been beaten and robbed of a ring, her cellphone and her passport.

24岁的美国人权活动人士艾娃·朗是这起事件的目击者，她表示自己也遭到了殴打，戒指、手机和护照都被抢走。

Mr. Abualkebash, his brother and their father and uncle were hospitalized for their injuries, as was Ms. Lang.

阿布阿尔卡巴什、他的兄弟、父亲与叔叔，还有朗，均因伤入院治疗。

据家人称，阿布阿尔卡巴什的兄弟穆罕默德也遭到殴打，他的妻子、七个孩子、父亲和叔叔同样遭受了殴打。

The attack took place in a patch of fertile land known as Khirbet Humsa, in the northern Jordan Valley. Once the home of hundreds of Bedouin, it has been reduced to a few small encampments in hollows between low-rising hills opposite the Israeli settlements of Beka’ot and Roi.

袭击发生在约旦河谷北部一片名为希贝特·哈姆萨的肥沃土地上。这里曾是数百名贝都因人的家园，如今只剩下低矮山丘间洼地里的几处小型营地，对面就是以色列的贝卡奥特与罗伊定居点。

The attack on Friday began sometime after 1 a.m. and lasted about an hour. Mr. Abualkebash said he was taking a turn on guard duty in a small tent near where a rocky dirt road enters the compound. His father and Ms. Lang, the activist, were sleeping beside him, he said.

周五的袭击发生在凌晨1点多，持续了约一个小时。阿布阿尔卡巴什说，当时他正在一处小帐篷里轮岗值守，帐篷位于一条崎岖的土路通往营地的入口附近，他的父亲和活动人士朗当时睡在他身边。

“I heard voices, so I got up and saw more than 20 of them outside the tent,” he said of the settlers.

“我听到了说话声，起身就看到帐篷外有20多个人，”他这样描述那些定居者。

In an interview, Ms. Lang — who independently corroborated Mr. Abualkebash’s account — said she had been volunteering in solidarity with Palestinians for about a month and a half. The attack came on her first night in Khirbet Humsa.

朗已独立证实了阿布阿尔卡巴什的说法，在采访中，她表示，自己来这里开展声援巴勒斯坦人的志愿活动已有一个半月，这是她在希贝特·哈姆萨度过的第一个晚上。

Israeli and foreign activists often stay with Palestinians seen as at risk of settler attacks on the theory that their presence can offer a measure of deterrence.

以色列与外国活动人士常会住在面临定居者袭击风险的巴勒斯坦人家中，他们认为自己的在场能起到一定的威慑作用。

Ms. Lang said that she was awakened by the screams of a Portuguese activist who had been sleeping in another tent, but that the attackers began beating them before any of them could react.

朗说，她被睡在另一顶帐篷里的一名葡萄牙活动人士的尖叫声惊醒，但袭击者没等他们任何人做出反应，就开始殴打他们。

“They were asking our names, where we’re from, saying, ‘We’re going to kill you,’ and ‘This is our land; we’re Jewish,’” she said.

“他们问我们叫什么、从哪里来，还说‘我们要杀了你们’，‘这是我们的土地，我们是犹太人’，”她说。

Masked and wielding clubs, Mr. Abualkebash said, the settlers beat and kicked him, his father and the two female activists. Once they had used zip ties to bind the others by their wrists and feet, he said, they also did the same to him.

阿布阿尔卡巴什称，这些定居者蒙着面、手持棍棒，对他、他的父亲和两名女性活动人士拳打脚踢。他们先用扎带绑住了其他人的手脚，随后也把他捆了起来。

One assailant used a hunting knife to cut Mr. Abualkebash’s pants and then his underwear, he said.

他说，其中一名袭击者用猎刀割破了他的裤子，接着又割开了他的内裤。

As the beating went on, he said, one attacker cinched a zip tie tightly around his penis. He showed a reporter the mark that remained from the injury.

他说，殴打持续的过程中，一名袭击者用扎带紧紧勒住了他的阴茎。他向记者展示了伤口留下的疤痕。

He said the assault had rendered him speechless, unable to believe what was happening to him. Israeli police officers, he added, appeared shocked when he described it.

他说，这场暴行让他震惊得说不出话来，无法相信发生在自己身上的一切。他还说，当他向以色列警方描述事发经过时，连警察都面露震惊。

The attackers then dragged Mr. Abualkebash to a large communal tent nearby where he found his wife, children and his brother’s family. The adults were all bound and cowering as they were intermittently beaten.

随后，袭击者把阿布阿尔卡巴什拖到附近一处大型公共帐篷里，他在那里看到了自己的妻子、孩子以及他的兄弟一家。所有成年人都被绑着，蜷缩在地上，时不时就会遭到殴打。

It turned out that the settlers had first destroyed two security cameras that the family had installed, hoping at least to have evidence in case of an attack, Muhammad Abualkebash, 40, said.

40岁的穆罕默德·阿布阿尔卡巴什说，定居者最先毁掉了家里安装的两个监控摄像头——这家人安装监控，本就是为了万一遭遇袭击能留下证据。

The settlers had then burst into the family members’ tents while they slept, dragging the women by their hair. They beat the women and slapped or kicked the children, the adults said.

随后，定居者趁这家人熟睡时冲进帐篷，揪着女人的头发拖拽。多名成年人表示，这些定居者们殴打女性，对孩子们拳打脚踢。

Mr. Abualkebash’s wife, Niama Abualkebash, 28, said that when she grabbed a head covering, a settler tore it from her hands, shouted, “No,” and threw it to the ground.

阿布阿尔卡巴什28岁的妻子尼亚玛·阿布阿尔卡巴什说，她伸手去拿头巾时，一名定居者一把从她手里抢走头巾，大喊着“不”，把它扔在地上。

“He hit me, kicked me in the mouth and said, ‘Die, die,’” she said.

“他打我，一脚踢在我嘴上，喊着‘去死，去死’，”她说。

目击者称，这些被丢弃的扎带曾被用于遇袭的受害者。

Her 3-year-old daughter, Lamar, was pulled from the tent by her pajamas and thrown to the ground, she said. Her infant daughter. Manar, who was hidden behind blankets, was not harmed.

她说，自己三岁的女儿拉马尔被人揪着睡衣拖出帐篷，摔在地上。藏在毯子后面的小婴儿玛纳尔没有受伤。

The settlers left only after threatening the Abualkebash family in Arabic, the adults said.

多名成年人称，定居者用阿拉伯语对阿布阿尔卡巴什一家发出威胁后，才最终离开。

“They said: ‘If you don’t leave, we will burn you. We’ll hit you. We’ll take your children, and we will rape your women,’” according to Muhammad Abualkebash. “‘Go to America, go to Jordan or anywhere else, but go.’”

“他们说：‘你们要是不滚，我们就烧死你们。我们会打你们，抓走你们的孩子，强奸你们的女人，’”穆罕默德·阿布阿尔卡巴什回忆。“‘去美国，去约旦，去别的地方，滚出这里。’”

The settlers eventually cut the zip ties — but not the one on Mr. Abualkebash’s genitalia. He said he needed his brother’s help to remove that.

定居者离开前剪断了大部分扎带，唯独没有解开勒在阿布阿尔卡巴什生殖器上的那根。他说，最后是靠兄弟帮忙才把它取了下来。

As they left, the Abualkebash family said, some of the settlers mockingly sang a few bars of an old Palestinian folk song: “Come and support one another, people of Palestine — Palestine is gone and it didn’t bid you farewell.”

阿布阿尔卡巴什一家称，离开时，部分定居者还嘲讽地哼了几句巴勒斯坦经典民谣：“巴勒斯坦人民啊，快来互相扶持吧——巴勒斯坦已不复存在，却未曾向你们道别。”

Becoming a successful comedian in the United States typically means grinding through open-mic nights, taking expensive improv classes and creating content for TikTok to build an online following.

在美国，要成为一名成功的喜剧演员通常意味着要经过多次开放麦的打磨，上昂贵的即兴表演课，并在TikTok上创作内容以积累粉丝。

Jesse Appell skipped all that. When he arrived in China in 2012, he was a recent Brandeis graduate who didn’t speak the language. By the time he moved back to the United States a decade later, he had become a fixture of China’s burgeoning stand-up comedy scene. He now has more than a million followers on Douyin, China’s domestic version of TikTok, by bridging the gap between American-style standup and more traditional forms of Chinese performance.

艾杰西(Jesse Appell)跳过了这些步骤。2012年他来到中国时，还是个刚从布兰戴斯大学毕业、完全不会中文的小伙子。等到十年后他搬回美国时，已是中国蓬勃发展的脱口秀界的名人。通过在美式脱口秀与中国传统表演形式之间架起桥梁，现在他在抖音上已是粉丝过百万的大V。

He turned his fascination with Chinese culture into a decade-long comedy career there, a story he tells in a new memoir, “This Was Funnier in China: An American Comedian’s Cross-Cultural Journey.”

他将自己对中国文化的痴迷变成了一段长达十年的喜剧表演生涯，并在新近出版的回忆录《这一切在中国更好笑：一位美国喜剧演员的跨文化之旅》(This Was Funnier in China: An American Comedian’s Cross-Cultural Journey)中讲述了这段经历。

China was hardly a comedy vacuum; the country had long been obsessed with the slapstick hits of stars like Stephen Chow and with the rapid-fire banter of xiangsheng, a form of comedy that loosely translates to “cross talk.” But the gritty, observational world of Western-style stand-up was only just surfacing in urban clubs.

中国并非没有喜剧传统；这个国家长期以来一直痴迷于周星驰等明星的无厘头喜剧，以及相声这种节奏飞快的对口表演形式。但那种更贴近现实、以日常观察为核心的西式单口喜剧，当时才刚刚开始在中国城市的俱乐部中兴起。

Asked why he went, Appell, 35, said in an interview that he was intrigued by “the challenge.” While Chinese social media and art have long been hotbeds of coded satire and wordplay, the raw, direct nature of the stand-up mic offered something different.

当被问及为何去中国时，现年35岁的艾杰西在采访中表示，他当时是被“挑战”所吸引。尽管中国的社交媒体和艺术长期以来一直是隐晦的讽刺和文字游戏的温床，但单口喜剧那种原始、直接的表达方式提供了截然不同的体验。

“You go to a comedy show in China and people need it,” he said. “This is not a place where you have a hundred methods of self-expression.”

“在中国看喜剧演出，人们是带着需求去的，”他说。“那里并不是一个拥有上百种自我表达方式的地方。”

Appell, a native of Newton, Mass., was drawn to comedy as a teenager, taking part in improv groups in high school. He first went to Beijing to study abroad when he was a junior at Brandeis, majoring in East Asian studies. To prepare, he followed an intensive Mandarin program, learning and memorizing 100 new characters every day. He also had to sign a language pledge saying he wouldn’t speak any English for six months, except to his parents.

艾杰西出生于马萨诸塞州纽顿市，青少年时期就对喜剧产生了兴趣，高中时参加过即兴表演社团。大三时，作为布兰戴斯大学东亚研究专业的学生，他第一次去北京留学。为了准备，他参加了一个高强度的中文项目，每天学习、记忆100个新汉字。他还签署了一份语言承诺书，规定除了跟父母通话，六个月内不得说英语。

While there, he met other international students and even took part in some bilingual improv groups. The seed was planted: He wanted to live and work in China.

在中国期间，他结识了其他国际学生，甚至参与了一些双语即兴表演小组。那时，一颗种子已经埋下：他想在中国生活和工作。

After graduating, Appell earned a Fulbright scholarship to research Chinese comedy.

大学毕业后，艾杰西获得了富布赖特奖学金，专门研究中国喜剧。

“When I got there, I realized I can do the things I like in the second country,” he said. “I don’t need to change the whole of who I am or what I like just because I was put into a new area. I love improv. I love comedy. I loved comedic writing. ‘Hey, they laugh over there too.’”

“到了那里，我意识到可以在另一个国家做我喜欢的事情，”他说。“我不需要因为换了一个地方就改变整个自我或者我的喜好。我热爱即兴表演，热爱喜剧，热爱幽默写作。‘嘿，那儿的人也会笑。’”

He found support through Ding Guangquan, a famed performer of xiangsheng. The style, popular since the 1850s, is believed to have originated during the Qing dynasty of the 1600s. It features two people performing a combination of scripted and improvised sketches onstage. Western stand-up comedy was not mainstream in China when Appell arrived there. His research would consist of apprenticing with Master Ding.

他得到了著名相声表演艺术家丁广泉的提携扶持。相声这种形式自19世纪50年代开始流行，据信起源于17世纪的清朝。它通常由两人表演，结合了预设的剧本和现场即兴。艾杰西初到中国时，西式脱口秀在中国还不属于主流。他的研究就是向丁先生拜师学艺。

This was an extraordinary challenge for someone whose Mandarin wasn’t quite fluent. Xiangsheng audiences have very “refined taste,” Appell said.

对于一个中文尚不流利的人来说，这是极大的挑战。艾杰西说，相声观众的“口味非常挑剔”。

“The funny thing about xiangsheng is at first it seems really easy because you just have to memorize your lines and go up onstage and do it,” said Nick Angiers, a friend of Appell’s and a fellow disciple of Master Ding. “And it’s only when you get to the intermediate part, when language isn’t really a problem anymore, that you realize just how layered it is.”

“相声有趣的地方在于，起初它看起来很容易，因为你只需要背台词然后上台表演，”艾杰西的朋友、同为丁广泉弟子的安仁良(Nick Angiers)说。“只有当你达到中级水平、语言不再是问题时，你才会意识到它的层次有多丰富。”

Xiangsheng gave Appell a base line for developing his Chinese comedic voice, just as stand-up was becoming more popular in the country. Appell said he performed live shows around 300 times a year and gradually built credibility in the Chinese comedy scene because there was a demand and few comedians to meet it.

相声为艾杰西开发自己的中式喜剧风格奠定了基础，而此时脱口秀在中国流行起来。艾杰西说，他每年进行约300场现场演出，逐渐在中国喜剧界建立了声誉，因为市场有需求，而能胜任的喜剧演员相对稀少。

“In China, once I had 20 to 30 minutes of Chinese stand-up, I was working on cruise ships. I was working on television shows. I was everywhere because — forget me being a white person — there just wasn’t anyone who had 45 minutes of stand-up,” he said.

“在中国，一旦我有了20到30分钟的中文段子，我就去邮轮上演出，去上电视节目。我无处不在——先撇开我是个白人不说，当时确实没人能讲出45分钟的脱口秀，”他说。

An early joke of Appell’s that become widely shared on social media involved Appell talking about his Boston roots: In Mandarin, he delivered a sendup of the Boston accent — “I pahk my cah in Hahvahd Yahd!” He did so, he said, to more clearly define himself to a Chinese audience.

艾杰西早期的一个段子在社交媒体上流传甚广，涉及他的波士顿背景：他用普通话惟妙惟肖地模仿了波士顿口音——“I pahk my cah in Hahvahd Yahd!”（I park my car in Harvard Yard，意为“我把车停在了哈佛园”，是一个常用来体现波士顿口音特点的固定句式。——译注）。他说，这样做是为了让中国观众对他有更清晰的认知。

“I kind of needed to shift their mentality away from ‘I’m a foreigner’ to ‘I’m an American from Boston,’” Appell said. “‘Hey, just like you guys have all your local things and you have your own local accents, we have that, too.’”

“我需要把他们的心态从‘我是个外国人’转变为‘我是个来自波士顿的美国人’，”艾杰西说，“‘嘿，就像你们有各种地方特色和方言口音一样，我们也有。’”

With the spread of social media, and as students and others returned to China from abroad, the Chinese comedy landscape was changing just as Appell was beginning his journey. At first, audiences were confused by Western-style stand-up..

随着社交媒体的普及以及海外群体的回流，中国的喜剧版图正在发生变化。起初，观众对西式脱口秀感到困惑。

“People had a good time but they didn’t really figure out the point of doing this,” said Tony Chou, a Beijing-based comic who has performed with Appell.

“大家玩得开心，但并没搞懂做这件事的意义何在，”曾与艾杰西同台演出的北京喜剧演员周托尼(Tony Chou)说。

Appell said he was part of the first ticketed stand-up show at a theater in Zhengzhou, a city of about 12 million in central China. In exploring the Chinese audience’s comedic sensibilities, he found topical common ground with American audiences. Dan Chen, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Richmond who has studied Chinese comedy, said that generational tension and workplace pressure were popular topics in Chinese stand-up. She also said that there had been a “generational shift” in the last decade in the type of comedy popular with younger Chinese consumers.

艾杰西说，他参加了郑州——中国中部一座拥有1200万人口的城市——历史上第一场售票的剧院脱口秀。在摸索中国观众的幽默感时，他发现了一些与美国观众产生共鸣的话题。里士满大学政治学助理教授陈丹研究过中国喜剧，她表示代际矛盾和职场压力是中国脱口秀的热门话题。她还提到，过去十年中，受年轻人欢迎的喜剧类型发生了“代际转变”。

“There is this need for really authentic, direct personal expression in public discourse. And a lot of stand-up comedians in China, they talk about issues that bother them,” Chen said.

“公共舆论中存在着对真实、直接的个人表达的需求。中国的很多脱口秀演员谈论的正是那些困扰他们的问题，”陈丹说。

As his stature grew, Appell served as a resource for other comedians looking to perform, such as Tom Xia, a Chinese-born comedian who grew up in the United States but moved back in 2014. Appell even started a comedy club in Beijing.

随着地位的提升，艾杰西成了其他想在中国演出的艺人的领路人，比如汤姆·夏（音），他出生在中国，在美国长大，2014年回到中国。艾杰西甚至在北京开了一家喜剧俱乐部。

“The more I talked to Jesse, the more insecure I felt as a Chinese American,” Xia said. “It was constantly making me reassess how Chinese I was. And when he started serving me tea in his apartment, that really was the final blow.”

“和艾杰西聊得越多，作为华裔美国人的我就越没有安全感，”他说。“他不断地让我反思自己到底有多中国。他在家里给我倒茶的时候，我真是彻底服了。”

Appell also had to navigate Chinese censors. To perform comedy in China, comedians have to submit their routines for government review. In 2023, a Chinese comedy studio was fined $2 million because Li Haoshi, a comedian there, mocked the military in a routine. Appell said there were two types of censorship: the audience’s and the government’s. For example, he said Chinese audiences, unlike American audiences, prefer that comedians not name specific politicians in their routines, regardless of whether the censors allow it.

艾杰西还必须应对中国的审查制度。在中国表演，演员需要将段子提交政府审查。2023年，中国一家喜剧工作室被罚款1335万元，原因是一名艺人在演出中调侃了军队。艾杰西说存在两种审查：观众的和政府的。例如，他说中国观众不像美国观众，他们更倾向于演员不要在段子里点名具体的政治人物，无论审查是否允许。

In January 2020, after performing on the Chinese version of “Last Comic Standing,” Appell flew back to the United States for what he thought would be a nine-day vacation. Instead, Covid hit. His Chinese visa was canceled. His comedy club was closed down.

2020年1月，在参加完中国版的《搞笑之王》(Last Comic Standing)演出后，艾杰西飞回美国休假，本以为只有九天。结果，新冠疫情爆发。他的中国签证被取消，俱乐部也被迫关闭。

During the pandemic, Appell’s following in China exploded. Stuck at home, people had more time to watch videos, and that meant more exposure to Appell’s stand-up and a sketch show he wrote and performed in.

疫情期间，艾杰西在中国的粉丝量激增。人们被迫宅家，有更多时间看视频，这让他之前录制的脱口秀和情景短剧得到了更多曝光。

But the life he had spent years building in China was gone within days. Instead, he chose to reinvent himself and moved to Los Angeles. He’s still a comedian, performing often for Chinese American audiences. But he has also started a Chinese tea business that has taken off faster than he expected. He spends four months of the year in China, still performing but also to source tea for his business. .

然而，他扎根中国多年的生活却在几天内化为乌有。他选择在洛杉矶重新开始。他仍是一名喜剧演员，经常为华裔观众表演。同时，他还开始做中国茶叶生意，发展速度超乎预期。他一年中会有四个月待在中国，一边继续演出，一边采购茶叶。

“Now, I have bits I do in Chinese back in America about how my job now is figuring out how to make white people laugh because they buy the tickets,” Appell said, adding, “I have to play the white audience like a minority comedian would, weirdly.”

“现在我有些段子会用中文讲，说我的工作如何如何变成了琢磨怎么逗白人笑，因为买票的是白人，”艾杰西补充道，“很奇怪，我得像一个美国少数族裔艺人那样去拿白人观众做文章。”

If you’re reading this, you’re Chinese. Or so says a genre of online content, which delivers instructions to the newly initiated. You should wear slippers and practice qigong; lay a zhen jin on your pillow to sleep; and exclusively drink warm water, ideally steeped with apples, jujubes and goji berries. Since the phrase took off last year, many Westerners have claimed they are in “a very Chinese time” in their lives, taking to social media to evangelize about their newfound Sinophilia. They’re not only curious but also focused on the finer details: Should they peel their apples, for example, or even use pears instead?

如果你正在读这篇文章，那你就是中国人。或者说，至少有一类网络内容是这么说的，这些内容为新入门者提供各种指导。你应该在家穿拖鞋、要练八段锦；睡觉时枕头上要有枕巾；只喝热水，最好里面还泡上苹果、红枣和枸杞。自从这个说法去年流行起来后，许多西方人宣称自己进入了人生“非常中国的时刻”，并纷纷在社交媒体上热情分享他们新获得的中国热。他们不仅好奇，还开始钻研起各种细节：比如，吃苹果要不要削皮？甚至要不要改成吃梨？

References to “being Chinese” started as a mostly nonsensical joke, but they’ve become a trope that is loosely aspirational. Casual mimicry gradually emerged as creators “unlocked” their “Chinese uncle” personality (apparently: stoic; aloof; occasionally exposing midriff) or found themselves “damn close” to buying a floral quilted jacket, “the Chinese auntie drip” in one viewer’s words. Now whole swaths of the internet have “just found out” they’re Chinese or are declaring their complete transformation: “I don’t even call it Chinatown anymore, I just call it town,” states the text of one video. “That is how Chinese my mind has become.” The joke has become so common that “Chinamaxxing” has been applied to the most mundane activities — the American influencer Hasan Piker posted as much while standing before the Shanghai skyline, conspicuously pairing socks with slippers.

“成为中国人”的说法一开始只是个有点无厘头的玩笑，但后来演变成了一种带点向往意味的网络热梗。随意的模仿慢慢演变成创作者“解锁”自己的“中式大叔”人格（大概就是：面无表情、不太爱搭理人、偶尔露出肚皮），或者发现自己“差一点”就要买一件碎花棉袄——用一位观众的话说，就是“中式阿姨穿搭”。现在，有许多网友“突然发现”自己其实是中国人，或者宣称已经彻底转变：“我现在甚至不叫它‘唐人街’了，我就叫它‘街’，”一条视频的字幕这样写道，“这就是我的思维就是这么中国。”这个网络梗已经普及到连最日常的行为也被称为“极致中式生活”——美国网红哈桑·派克站在上海天际线前拍视频，还特意穿着袜子配拖鞋。

Several Chinese American influencers have happily taken up the role of cultural arbiter. Notable among them is Sherry Zhu, who often gives her audience lively Mandarin-English pep talks: Anyone staying in on a Friday night, for example, should instead eat hot pot and go to karaoke, because bed rotting is “not Chinese baddie of you.” That “baddie” persona has made its way into a range of wellness content, most of which appropriate traditional Chinese medicine. The content multiplied recently on the occasion of Lunar New Year, with one infographic illustrating the components of a “Chinease Baddie Morning Routine” — pun intended. It included photos of “morning herbs,” “meditation” and “gua sha” alongside a set of disembodied abs (labeled “lymph drain belly massage”) and a toilet (labeled, simply, “elimination”).

一些华裔美国网红欣然当起了文化仲裁者。其中较有代表性的是雪莉·朱（音），她常常用很有感染力的中英夹杂的方式给观众打气：比如周五晚上呆在家里的人应该去吃火锅、去唱K，因为整天躺着“并不符合中国辣妹的气质”。这种“辣妹”人设已经扩展到各种养生内容，其中很多都挪用了中医理念。最近借着农历新年的契机，这类内容激增，有一张信息图表展示了“中式舒缓辣妹晨间流程”（中式舒缓是故意把Chinese写成Chinease玩谐音梗）——包括“晨间草药”、“冥想”、“刮痧”，还有一些配图：一组腹肌（标注为“淋巴排毒腹部按摩”）和一个马桶（简单标注为“排泄”）。

Many Chinese people have of course objected to their culture’s being trivialized, even fetishized, by Western audiences — some have even likened the experience to the parasitic predation in Jordan Peele’s horror movie “Get Out.” In particular, the idea of being “diagnosed as Chinese” has stoked outrage for recalling stereotypes that were widely revived with the onset of the pandemic. “Where was this love for Chinese culture when they were getting attacked in the streets?” asks one user, recalling how anti-Asian hate crimes spiked in 2020, at a time when President Trump also called Covid-19 the “China virus.” His vitriol helped rekindle a long tradition of Sinophobia that casts China as irrevocably backward, even barbaric. In this “very Chinese time,” the same Orientalizing impulses have produced new variations on these themes: One “British guy showing you the real China,” for example, regularly telegraphs his immersion in the culture by toting a local beer in one hand and a cigarette in the other.

当然，也有不少中国人对此提出反对，认为他们的文化被西方受众过度简化，甚至被物化——有人把这种体验比作乔丹·皮尔的恐怖电影《逃出绝命镇》里的寄生式掠夺。尤其是“诊断为中国人”的说法引发了强烈不满，因为它让人联想到疫情之初遭重新激活的种族刻板印象。“当他们在街头遭到攻击的时候，这些对中国文化的‘热爱’在哪里？”一名社交媒体用户这样问到，同时回想起2020年反亚裔仇恨犯罪激增的时期，当时特朗普总统还把新冠病毒称为“中国病毒”。他的恶毒言论重新点燃了由来已久的恐华传统，把中国描绘成落后甚至野蛮的存在。在这个“非常中国的时刻”，类似的东方主义冲动又产生了新的变体：比如某个“英国小伙带你看真实中国”的博主，总是用一手拿着中国啤酒、一手夹着中国烟的形象来强调自己融入了中国文化。

What is unexpected about this trend — and certainly unthinkable just six years ago — is that these jokes are now inflected with reverence. As in the video that overlays scenes from Chinese pagodas, street markets and skylines with an admiring if enigmatic directive: “You have to get more locked in/You have to get more motion/You have to get more Chinese.” Or as one account articulates, parodying Confucius’ “Analects,” “The sinicization of a man’s mind comes not as an unbidden surprise, but is welcomed and greeted warmly like an old friend returning home.”

这个趋势出人意料的一点——当然在六年前几乎是不可想象的——是这些玩笑如今带有了敬意色彩。比如有一段视频，把中国的宝塔、街市和城市天际线画面配以既赞美又有点神秘的指令上：“你要更专注/你要更有行动力/你要更中国一点。”又或者有账号模仿《论语》写道：“归化于心也，非不期而至，乃悦而迎之，如故人归矣。”

Social media has long sustained cultural exchange between the United States and China, a relationship that seems to only strengthen when political tensions escalate. Anticipating Trump’s second presidency in early 2025 — and, more specifically, the proposed ban on TikTok — users in the United States pre-emptively sought out the app’s Chinese equivalent, Xiaohongshu, colloquially known as RedNote. It shot to the top of the U.S. Apple Store downloads list by mid-January. While many of these “TikTok refugees” simply wanted a new digital home, others took to the Chinese app to “troll” the American government. (Trump’s inauguration featured a coterie of tech elites whose net worth exceeded one trillion dollars.) “In short, we’re here to spite our government and to learn about China and hang out with you guys,” one such refugee posted on Xiaohongshu.

社交媒体长期以来一直维系着中美之间的文化交流，而这种关系似乎在政治紧张局势升级时反而会进一步加强。2025年初，随着人们预期特朗普将开启第二任期——更具体地说，预期TikTok会被禁——美国用户未雨绸缪，找到了另一款中国的应用程序小红书。到去年的1月中旬，它一跃登上美国苹果应用商店下载榜首。许多这样的“TikTok难民”只是想找一个新的数字家园，但也有许多人涌入这款中国应用，为的是“恶心”美国政府。（特朗普的就职典礼上聚集了一群科技巨头，他们的净资产总和超过一万亿美元。）其中一名“难民”在小红书上发帖说：“简而言之，我们来这里是为了恶心我们的政府，也是为了了解中国，和你们一起玩。”

When TikTok eventually announced its rescue by Trump, its refugees returned to the platform and business as usual — though something had palpably shifted in the course of their brief exile. Users began to find themselves in a “very Chinese time,” relaying visions of a foreign life: mass-market electric cars, socialized health care, high-speed rail. These only added to the impressions broadcast by tourists and professional vloggers over recent years, which steadily demystified life in China while also boosting it as a tourist destination for a new generation, an almost mythical place replete with otherworldly scenery and ultramodern technologies. Even Americans could see in these clips a vision of the future that hadn’t arrived at home.

当TikTok最终宣布被特朗普救下后，难民们回到了该平台，一切照旧——尽管在他们短暂的流亡过程中，某种东西显然已经发生了变化。用户们开始发现自己进入了“很中国的时刻”，分享着关于另一种生活的想象：普及型的电动车、社会化医疗、高铁。这些内容进一步印证了近年来游客和职业视频博主传递的印象——既持续不断地揭开了中国生活的神秘面纱，同时也将这个国家作为新一代旅游目的地加以推崇，一个拥有超现实美景和超现代科技的近乎神话般的地方。即使是美国人，也能在这些视频中看到自己国家尚未实现的未来图景。

As they observe the decline of their own country, American TikTokers continue to fantasize about “being Chinese”: In their minds, high-quality, low-cost living, with slippered feet and nourished spleens, is not for the privileged few but for all. If racist tropes once signaled Western dominance over “the Orient,” “Chinamaxxing” reveals how Americans now seem to surrender to certain kinds of Chinese influence. And if you aren’t already convinced, the algorithmic mechanics of social media will hold you captive to engage you directly. When one Chinese-born, Britain-based user tells his viewers, “If you’re watching this, you’re Chinese,” he means it materially: “Aren’t you scrolling on this Chinese app, probably on a Chinese-made phone, wearing clothes that are made in China, collecting dolls that are from China, wearing bags that are made in China, wearing perfumes that are made in China?”

在目睹自己国家衰落的同时，美国的TikTok用户继续幻想“成为中国人”：在他们心目中，高质量、低成本的生活——在家穿拖鞋、调养脾胃——并非少数特权阶级的专属，而是人人可得。如果说种族主义的刻板印象曾一度标志着西方对“东方”的支配，那么“极致中式生活”则揭示了美国人如今似乎在某种程度上臣服于中国的影响。如果你还没有被说服，社交媒体的算法会把你牢牢抓住，让你直接参与其中。当一位中国出生、生活在英国的用户告诉他的观众，“如果你正在看这个视频，你就是中国人，”他是从物质层面来说的。“你现在是不是在刷这款中国应用？可能你的手机也是中国制造的，穿的衣服是中国制造的，收藏的的玩偶来自中国，背的包是中国制造，喷的香水也是中国制造的吧？”

But just like other forms of aspirational content, many scenes of life in China are also edited to sustain a fantasy; fan-cam footage of high-speed rail highlights its delivery McDonald’s service but not the state’s use of surveillance to prevent “untrustworthy” citizens from boarding. Social media may have rendered life in China less mysterious, but by positioning it as aspirational, influencers have ensured that the “Orient” remains a receptacle for Western desires, especially on platforms that favor neat oppositions: right versus wrong, good versus evil, East versus West.

但就像其他类型的向往式内容一样，许多关于中国生活的场景同样经过了剪辑，以维持一种幻想；粉丝镜头下的高铁视频会突出车上可以点麦当劳外卖，却不会提及国家如何利用监控来阻止“失信”人员上车。社交媒体或许让中国生活不再那么神秘，但通过把它塑造成一种令人向往的对象，网红们确保了“东方”仍然是西方欲望的容器——尤其是在那些偏爱二元对立（对与错、善与恶、东方与西方）的平台上。

The grass is usually greener when viewed from the other side of the world and in curated, seconds-long clips. But pledging allegiance to a different country — or to your phone, or to a new wellness routine — rarely solves the root of the problem. Still, why would anyone stop now? Especially while feeling that life has improved since “becoming Chinese” — that is, since embracing explicit instruction on what to eat, wear and do. “Thank you, Congress,” beams one Western college student, having projected a Chinese flag on a television behind her while expressing her gratitude in Mandarin. “Without you none of this is possible, I love the People’s Republic of China!” The video is intended as a joke, though it evokes more earnest reactions. “I CAN’T LOSE THIS INTERNET,” says a top comment, liked by thousands whose fealty lies not with any country, per se, but with the state of being online.

当你从世界另一端、透过几秒钟的精修短视频来观看，别处的月亮总是更圆。但是向另一个国家（或者向你的手机，或者向一种新的养生方式）效忠很少能从根本上解决问题。不过，谁又会在此刻停下来呢？尤其是当你感觉到自从“成为中国人”以来——也就是说，自从接受了关于吃什么、穿什么、做什么的明确指导之后，感觉日子顺心了。“谢谢国会，”一位西方大学生笑容满面地用普通话表达感谢，她身后的电视上是一面中国国旗。“没有你们，这一切都不可能实现，我爱中华人民共和国！”这段视频本意是个玩笑，但它也唤起了一些更为真诚的回应。“我不能失去这个互联网，”一条热门评论写道，它获得了数千个赞，这些点赞者的效忠对象其实不是任何国家，而是在线这种状态本身。

After the United States and Israel went to war against Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. military began issuing a bulletin every few days listing the number of targets hit. By Wednesday it was more than 7,800 in total, up from over 1,000 on the first day of the war, while a similar Israeli count of strikes stood at 7,600 late last week.

2月28日美以对伊朗开战以来，美军每隔数日便发布公报，公布打击目标数量。截至周三，累计打击目标已超7800个，开战首日这一数字为1000余个；以色列方面的空袭统计数据显示，截至上周末，以军打击目标已达7600个。

It is, by any measure, a bombing campaign of historic proportions, and senior U.S. officials have lauded it repeatedly as a crushing blow to the Iranian armed forces. “Never before has a modern, capable military, which Iran used to have, been so quickly destroyed and made combat ineffective, devastated,” Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, said at a news conference last week.

无论以什么标准衡量，这都是一场历史性规模的轰炸行动。美国高层官员反复盛赞，此次行动对伊朗武装力量造成了毁灭性打击。国防部长皮特·海格塞思在上周的新闻发布会上表示：“伊朗曾拥有现代化、具备完备作战能力的军队，这样一支军队以如此快的速度被摧毁、丧失战斗力、遭到重创，这是前所未有的。”

And yet, Iran is not entirely crippled militarily. It continues to retaliate, often in unconventional ways. Its resistance, along with the political defiance of its new leaders, evokes a decades-old pattern of unrealized expectations for American interventions in the region.

然而，伊朗的军事力量并未完全瘫痪。它仍在持续反击，且往往采用非常规手段。伊朗的抵抗，加上其新任领导层的政治对抗姿态，让人想起数十年来美国在中东地区的干预行动中，屡屡出现的预期落空。

Global oil prices have inched upward as Iranian attacks have curtailed exports through the narrow, perilous Strait of Hormuz, including hitting a tanker on Tuesday near the waterway. Virtually every night, a barrage of Iranian missiles hits Israel and Persian Gulf nations allied with the United States, unsettling the population. Most cause little damage, but overall the fighting has killed more than 2,300 people in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and across the region.

伊朗的袭击限制了石油通过凶险狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡对外出口，全球油价随之小幅攀升，周二，伊朗还袭击了水道附近的一艘油轮。几乎每一夜，伊朗都会向以色列和美国的海湾盟友国发射密集导弹，引发当地民众不安。尽管大部分袭击造成的损失有限，但整场战事已在伊朗、黎巴嫩、以色列及整个地区造成超2300人死亡。

周三，以色列拉马特甘空袭现场的急救人员。

Iranian proxy militias in both Lebanon and Iraq have joined the fray, firing rockets into northern Israel and hitting the sprawling U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.

伊朗在黎巴嫩和伊拉克的代理民兵组织也已加入战局，向以色列北部发射火箭弹，并袭击了巴格达规模庞大的美国大使馆园区。

Despite the overwhelming force brought to bear against Iran, and the serial killings of its leaders, the regime has not toppled. Analysts are now weighing to what extent the promises of a “New Middle East” emerging from the conflict could prove as illusory as the ones from previous wars that embroiled Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq.

尽管对伊朗动用了压倒性军力，接连击杀其高层领导人，但伊朗政权并未倒台。分析人士如今正在评估，这场冲突将催生“新中东”的承诺究竟会在多大程度上像此前在被卷入加沙、黎巴嫩、伊拉克战争时做出的相关承诺一样，最终沦为泡影。

The United States has a tendency to overestimate what political outcomes can be engineered using overwhelming military power while underestimating the fallout, said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Gulf security issues. “Air power is the U.S. drug of choice — we love to believe that it can achieve big political effects and also big military effects, yet the historical record doesn’t support that.”

麻省理工学院专攻海湾安全问题的凯特琳·塔尔梅奇教授表示，美国总是倾向于高估动用压倒性军事实力所能塑造的政治结果，却低估其后续影响。“空中力量是美国偏爱的特效药——我们总愿意相信它能实现重大的政治，也能实现重大的军事效果，但历史记录并不支持这一点。”

While President Trump and other top U.S. officials repeatedly boast that Iran’s air force is extinct and its navy sits at the bottom of the sea, analysts noted that the country was never expected to take on the United States in a direct confrontation using a conventional military.

特朗普总统与美国其他高层官员屡屡吹嘘伊朗空军已全军覆没，海军也已沉入海底。但分析人士指出，外界本来也从未预期伊朗会动用常规军事力量，与美国展开正面对抗。

Instead, it relies on asymmetrical warfare, tactics designed to extend the war indefinitely until, it hopes, the cost saps the will of the Trump administration and Israel.

恰恰相反，伊朗依赖的是非对称作战——这类战术的核心目标是无限期拖长战争，希望战争代价耗尽特朗普政府与以色列的战斗意志。

周五，德黑兰举行了“耶路撒冷日”游行，这是一项一年一度的反以色列活动。

In the Gulf, for example, the naval wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has long used smaller craft to lay mines and deploys speedboats to mount lightning attacks. On land, Iran dispersed its forces to avoid their being vanquished in one fell swoop, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before he was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the war’s first day, was said to have ordered a succession plan four layers deep for every central military and government post.

例如，在海湾地区，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军长期使用小型船只布雷，出动快艇发动闪电式袭击。在陆地上，伊朗分散部署兵力，避免被一举歼灭。据称，在战争首日死于以色列空袭的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊生前下令，为所有中央军事与政府职位设立了四层纵深的继任方案。

Externally, drone and missile attacks strike targets that include military bases, oil infrastructure and airports in nearby Gulf countries not directly involved — all meant to stretch the battlefield as far as possible. “The main idea of their response is to expand the pain and inconvenience of this war for as many countries in the world as possible,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”

对外，伊朗通过无人机和导弹，袭击周边未直接参战的海湾国家的军事基地、石油基础设施和机场等目标。所有这些行动，都是为了尽可能扩大战场范围。《野心之战——美国、伊朗与中东的争斗》(Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East)一书作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔表示：“伊朗反击的核心思路就是让全球尽可能多的国家都感受到这场战争带来的痛苦与麻烦。”

From the regime’s perspective, he added, the stakes could not be higher, with Iran’s very survival at stake. “They are fighting for their positions and their lives,” he said.

他还说，在伊朗政权看来，这关乎国家存亡，风险再高不过。“他们是在为自己的权位和性命而战，”他说。

That pushed the often fractious leadership to set aside its differences, analysts said. The population is paying a huge price, with more than 1,300 people dead and urban residents either fleeing or living in fear as explosions erupt around them.

分析人士称，这让素来内讧不断的伊朗领导层放下了分歧。而民众则付出了惨痛代价：已有超1300人死亡，城市居民要么逃离家园，要么在身边接连不断的爆炸声中惶惶度日。

周五，一名女子从德黑兰一栋受损的建筑物里向外张望。

At the start of the war, both Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel called on Iranians to resume the protests that stalled in January after security forces gunned down thousands of participants. With such forces now threatening to shoot protesters as traitors, not to mention the bombs raining down, Mr. Trump has acknowledged that the moment might not be ideal. However, Mr. Netanyahu continues to stress that Israel is trying to spur the conditions for an uprising, with its military targeting the domestic security forces across Iran.

战争伊始，特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡都曾呼吁伊朗民众重启抗议活动——今年1月，伊朗安全部队枪杀了数千名抗议者后，相关抗议活动便陷入停滞。如今，安全部队威胁要将抗议者以叛国罪处决，更不用说还有漫天落下的炸弹，特朗普也已承认，当下或许并非发动抗议的理想时机。但内塔尼亚胡仍在强调，以色列正通过军事打击伊朗各地的国内安全部队，为民众起义创造条件。

Tzachi Hanegbi, a former national security adviser to Mr. Netanyahu, wrote in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Sunday that given their control of the skies, Israeli and American warplanes could provide close air support for protesters, acknowledging that it would be unprecedented.

内塔尼亚胡的前国家安全顾问扎奇·哈内格比周日在以色列《新消息报》撰文称，以色列和美国战机掌握着制空权，可以为抗议者提供近距离空中支援，他也承认这是史无前例的。

Wars intended to reshape the Middle East in recent history have instead taken ever more violent detours.

近代史上那些旨在重塑中东的战争最终都走上了愈发暴力的歧途。

In August 1982, after Israel invaded Lebanon, Ariel Sharon, the Israeli minister of defense, predicted that by driving out the Palestine Liberation Organization, “the whole infrastructure of violence and revolution has been broken.”

1982年8月，以色列入侵黎巴嫩后，时任以色列国防部长阿里埃勒·沙龙曾预言，赶走巴勒斯坦解放组织后，“暴力与革命的整个根基已被摧毁”。

Within months, a nascent Hezbollah dispatched suicide bombers against Israeli troops with devastating effect. Israeli forces have returned to Lebanon repeatedly in a conflict that ebbs and flows but never really ended. The latest incursion came this month after Hezbollah opened a second front in the war in support of Iran.

然而短短数月内，初兴的真主党就对以色列军队发动了自杀式炸弹袭击，造成毁灭性后果。此后以色列军队多次重返黎巴嫩，这场冲突时起时落，却从未真正终结。本月，真主党为支援伊朗，在战争中开辟第二战场，以色列再次发动了入侵。

The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 similarly produced bloody, unforeseen consequences. The year before, Mr. Netanyahu told the U.S. Congress that “if you take out Saddam — Saddam’s regime — I guarantee it will have an enormous positive reverberations on the region.”

2003年，美国入侵伊拉克，同样造成了血腥且始料未及的后果。此前一年，内塔尼亚胡曾对美国国会表示，“如果你们推翻萨达姆——萨达姆政权——我保证这将对该地区产生巨大的积极影响”。

Almost 4,500 American soldiers died in the conflict, along with tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians. The war gave rise to the Islamic State, a force still destabilizing the Middle East, and spurred Iran to build an alliance of regional militias.

在那场冲突中，近4500名美军士兵丧生，伊拉克平民死亡人数达到数万。那场战争催生了伊斯兰国，这股势力至今仍在扰乱中东局势，还促使伊朗建立起由地区民兵组成的联盟。

上周贝鲁特发生爆炸，浓烟升腾。

Some Israeli political commentators have likened the lack of an Iran strategy to Israel’s failure to dismantle the domination of both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

部分以色列政治评论员将对伊朗缺乏长远战略的状况和以色列未能铲除哈马斯在加沙、真主党在黎巴嫩的主导地位相提并论。

“Within this framework, an exaggerated picture has been conveyed to the public,” Michael Milstein, an Israeli analyst and former intelligence officer, wrote in Yedioth Ahronot last weekend. “According to which Hezbollah was almost ‘evaporated,’ the Iranian threat has been removed, Hamas is expected to dissipate and the Arab world is preparing to form a strategic alliance with Israel.”

以色列分析人士、前情报官员迈克尔·米尔斯坦上周末在《新消息报》撰文称：“在这套叙事框架下，一幅严重夸大的图景被传递给了公众。按照这套说法，真主党几乎‘灰飞烟灭’，伊朗威胁已被清除，哈马斯即将瓦解，阿拉伯世界正准备和以色列结成战略同盟。”

Instead of conveying reality, Mr. Milstein said in an interview, Israel leaned toward “fantasy,” especially since the bloody attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, did not lead to any official inquiry into what mistakes had allowed Hamas to kill more than 1,200 Israelis near Gaza. The subsequent war left more than 70,000 Gazans dead, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, and the entire enclave largely rubble.

米尔斯坦在采访中表示，以色列非但没有如实传递现实，反而倾向于“幻想”。尤其是2023年10月7日的血腥袭击发生后，官方并未展开任何正式调查，研究哪些失误导致哈马斯在加沙附近杀害1200多名以色列人。据哈马斯运营的加沙卫生部称，随后的战争造成超7万名加沙人死亡，整个加沙地带几乎沦为一片废墟。

Yet Hamas has not been dislodged, Mr. Milstein noted. “I really don’t like all these engineering ideas that we will redesign the Middle East and will change the hearts and minds of the people,” he said. “We really decided to learn nothing from history.”

米尔斯坦指出，哈马斯至今仍未被推翻。“我实在不喜欢那些构想——我们要重新设计中东，改变民众的思想观念，”他说。“我们显然已经下定决心，不打算从历史当中吸取任何教训。”

President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan have built a close relationship over the past few months, bonding over baseball and shared conservative values, and heaping praise on each other even as they spar over issues like trade.

过去几个月，特朗普总统与日本首相高市早苗建立了密切的关系——两人因棒球和共同的保守价值观而产生共鸣，即使在贸易等问题上存在分歧时也相互大加赞赏。

That friendship is about to undergo a major test on Thursday as Ms. Takaichi visits the White House for the first time.

然而，这段友谊将在周四面临大考，届时高市将首次访问白宫。

Spurned by European allies, Mr. Trump is expected to use the summit meeting to urge Japan to dispatch minesweepers and maritime forces to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as the war in the Mideast enters its third week. He has already piled on the pressure, suggesting that Japan owes the United States for years of defense aid and that Japan must act because of its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil.

随着欧洲盟友拒绝合作，预计特朗普将利用此次峰会敦促日本在中东战争进入第三周之际派遣扫雷艇和海上兵力，协助重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。他已经施加了压力，暗示日本多年来接受美国的防务援助是欠了人情的，而且由于日本高度依赖中东石油，它必须采取行动。

The demands have put Ms. Takaichi, a hard-line conservative who last fall became the first woman to lead Japan as prime minister, in a difficult position. She is constrained not just by Japan’s pacifist constitution, but overwhelming public opposition: Only 9 percent of Japanese endorse the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, according to a recent poll by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.

这些要求让去年秋天成为日本首位女性首相的强硬保守派高市早苗陷入了困境。她不仅受到日本和平宪法的限制，而且还面临压倒性的公众反对：根据《朝日新闻》最近的一项民调，只有9%的日本人支持美以对伊朗的打击行动。

Now Ms. Takaichi faces the delicate task of finding a way to signal support for Mr. Trump without getting entangled in the war. She must do so in the high-pressure forum of the White House, over lunch and dinner with a president who seems increasingly impatient and aggrieved.

如今，高市面临的任务很微妙——要找到一种既能表示支持特朗普，又不会卷入战争的方法。而且她必须是在白宫这个高压场合，在与一位似乎越来越不耐烦、越来越愤愤不平的总统共进午餐和晚餐时做到这一点。

2023年，日本海上自卫队的一艘扫雷艇在冲绳县附近海域。

“This was supposed to be a pretty straightforward, easy summit,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “Now it’s exactly what the Japanese don’t want: an unpredictable situation with no obvious answers.”

华盛顿美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀表示：“这原本应该是一场相当直接、轻松的峰会。现在却成了日本人最不希望看到的情况：一种没有明确答案、难以预测的局面。”

The Iran crisis could hit Japan hard; the country imports almost all its energy, and about 95 percent of its oil comes from the Middle East — a fact that Mr. Trump has eagerly highlighted in recent days.

伊朗危机可能对日本造成重创；日本几乎所有能源都依赖进口，其中约95%的石油来自中东——这一点在最近几天被特朗普反复强调。

The United States is Japan’s chief ally, and Ms. Takaichi is counting on Mr. Trump for help in countering China’s growing military and economic clout in Asia. While European allies have openly sought distance from the conflict, Ms. Takaichi has been more equivocal.

美国是日本的主要盟友，高市正指望特朗普帮助她抗衡中国在亚洲日益增长的军事和经济影响力。在美国的欧洲盟友公开寻求与冲突保持距离不同，高市的态度则更为含糊。

She has said it would be “legally difficult” for Japan to order its navy to take part in security operations at sea, and that the Iran situation did not yet constitute a “survival-threatening” situation for Japan that would allow a military response. But she has also said she is considering “what we can do.” And she has refrained from commenting on the legality of the U.S.-Israeli attack.

她曾表示，从法律角度看，日本很难命令其海军参与海上安全行动，而当前的伊朗局势尚未构成允许日本采取军事回应的“威胁国家生存”的情形。但她同时也表示，正在考虑“我们能做什么”。对于美以袭击的合法性，她一直不予置评。

伊朗危机有可能对日本造成重创，因为日本的能源几乎完全依赖进口，其中约95%的石油来自中东。

Mr. Trump appears to have his eye on Japan’s fleet of advanced minesweepers, which could help escort oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Japan deployed them to the Persian Gulf in 1991 — the military’s first overseas mission since the end of World War II — but only after the American combat mission there had ended.

特朗普似乎看中了日本的先进扫雷艇舰队，它们可以帮助在霍尔木兹海峡为油轮护航。日本曾在1991年向波斯湾派遣扫雷艇——那是二战结束后日本自卫队的首次海外行动——但那是在美国作战行动已经结束后派出的。

In 2019, during his first term, Mr. Trump pressured Japan to play a more active role in protecting its interests in the Middle East after a series of attacks on oil tankers in the region. Japan responded by sending maritime defense forces to patrol shipping lanes and gather intelligence. But it steered clear of the Strait of Hormuz, an apparent attempt to avoid giving the impression that it was standing with the United States against Iran, with which Japan has long maintained friendly relations.

2019年，在特朗普的第一个任期内，中东发生一系列油轮遇袭事件后，他曾向日本施压，要求该国在保护其中东利益方面发挥更积极的作用。作为回应，日本派遣了海上自卫队巡逻航道并收集情报。但它避开了霍尔木兹海峡，显然是为了避免给人一种站在美国一边反对伊朗的印象，而日本与伊朗长期以来保持着友好关系。

The question of dispatching the military overseas is fraught in Japan, where memories of World War II still linger. Pacifism is enshrined in the Constitution, with a clause known as Article 9 calling for the complete renunciation of war.

在日本，是否向海外派遣军队始终是一个高度敏感的问题，因为二战的记忆仍然挥之不去。和平主义被写入宪法，其中被称为“第九条”的条款明确规定彻底放弃战争。

In 2015, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — a friend to both Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi — made it easier to send the military abroad, revising the law to permit overseas combat missions alongside allied troops in the name of “collective self-defense.”

2015年，时任首相安倍晋三——特朗普和高市早苗共同的朋友——放宽了向海外派遣自卫队的限制，同时修订法律，允许他们以“集体自卫”的名义与盟军一起执行海外作战任务。

But the situation must be deemed a threat to Japan’s survival. Alternatively, the law permits the military to be deployed overseas — but only after fighting has stopped.

但前提是，这种情况必须被认定为对日本生存构成威胁。另一种情况是，根据法律，自卫队也可以在战斗结束后被派往海外。

2023年，日本种子岛附近，日本自卫队参加两栖登陆演习。

Japanese lawmakers have raised concerns that the attacks by the United States and Israel violate international law, and some commentators have urged Ms. Takaichi to take a neutral approach.

日本国会议员对美以的打击行动是否违反国际法表示担忧，一些评论人士也呼吁高市采取中立立场。

“Dispatching Japanese patrol ships would almost certainly be seen as siding with the United States, undermining Japan’s standing in the international community,” read an editorial this week in Mainichi Shimbun, a prominent Japanese newspaper.

“派遣日本巡逻舰几乎肯定会被视为站在美国一边，从而削弱日本在国际社会中的地位，”日本主要报纸《每日新闻》在本周的一篇社论写道。

Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi had an easy rapport when they first met last October in Tokyo, discussing their shared admiration for Mr. Abe, who was assassinated in 2022.

去年10月，特朗普与高市在东京首次会面时建立了融洽的关系，两人谈到了他们对2022年遇刺身亡的安倍晋三的共同敬仰。

The summit this week was supposed to be a chance to rekindle that chemistry. Japanese officials had hoped to use the meeting to persuade Mr. Trump to avoid making a sweeping deal with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that would jeopardize the security of allies in the region. Japan is also eager to highlight investments in the United States and joint efforts to reduce reliance on China for rare earth metals.

本周的峰会本应是重新点燃这种默契的机会。日本官员原本希望利用此次会晤说服特朗普，避免与中国领导人习近平达成一项会危及地区盟友安全的全面协议。日本也急于强调在美国的投资，以及双方在减少对中国稀土金属依赖方面的合作努力。

Ms. Takaichi will be looking to gauge Mr. Trump’s timeline and strategy for the war, analysts said, given the damage it could inflict on Japan’s economy and society. Japan is concerned that the conflict could affect its security if the United States continues to move warships, missiles and air defenses from Asia to the Middle East.

分析人士称，考虑到这场战争可能对日本经济和社会造成的冲击，高市将试图摸清特朗普对这场战争的时间表和战略。日本担心，如果美国继续将战舰、导弹和防空力量从亚洲转移到中东，这场冲突可能会影响日本的安全。

Jeffrey W. Hornung, an expert on Japan at the RAND Corporation, a research group in Washington, said that Ms. Takaichi would face the challenge of responding in real time to Mr. Trump’s demands.

华盛顿智库兰德公司的日本问题专家杰弗里·霍农表示，高市将面临如何实时回应特朗普要求的挑战。

“If Takaichi goes there and says, ‘This is a huge concern for us,’ and Trump turns around and says, ‘So what are you going to do about it?’— I don’t know how Japan answers that question,” he said.

他说：“如果高市去了那里说，‘这对我们来说是一个重大关切’，而特朗普反问‘那你打算怎么办？’——我不知道日本如何回答这个问题。”

The Chinese government is taking actions to penalize people linked to Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Manus, a Singapore artificial intelligence start-up with Chinese roots, in an apparent effort to discourage Chinese A.I. executives from moving businesses offshore, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

据两位知情人士透露，中国政府正在采取行动，对与Meta以20亿美元收购源于中国的新加坡人工智能初创公司Manus的交易关联人员进行处罚，此举显然是为了阻止中国人工智能高管将业务迁至海外。

Officials at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, a high-level ministry that oversees economic planning including A.I., called in Meta and Manus executives for a meeting late last week to express concerns about the deal, which was announced in December, said the people, who declined to be named publicly in order to discuss sensitive issues.

上述人士称，上周晚些时候，中国国家发展改革委的官员——该机构是负责包括人工智能领域的经济规划的高级部门——召集Meta和Manus的高管开会，对这项于去年12月宣布的交易表达了关切。由于涉及敏感话题，上述知情人士要求匿名。

The scope of the Chinese government’s actions remains unclear but appears to include an effort to restrict Manus executives from departing China for Singapore, one of the people said. Beijing has issued exit bans in the past for corporate executives who were under scrutiny.

其中一名知情人士称，目前中国政府采取措施的具体范围尚不清楚，但似乎包括限制Manus高管离开中国前往新加坡。过去，北京方面曾对接受审查的企业高管实施出境限制。

“The transaction complied fully with applicable law,” Andy Stone, a Meta spokesman, said in a statement. “The outstanding team at Manus is now deeply integrated into Meta.”

Meta发言人安迪·斯通在声明中表示：“该交易完全符合适用法律。Manus这支优秀的团队现已已经深度整合进Meta。”

He added, “We anticipate an appropriate resolution to the inquiry.”

他还补充说：“我们预计调查将得到妥善解决。”

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it was not aware of the specifics of the case. Manus and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

中国驻华盛顿大使馆表示不了解此事的具体情况。Manus以及白宫方面均未回应置评请求。

Manus was founded by Chinese engineers and had a Chinese parent company before moving to Singapore. Last year, the start-up turned heads in Silicon Valley with an A.I. application that carried out complex tasks without human oversight.

Manus由中国的工程师创办，在迁至新加坡之前曾有一家中国母公司。去年，这家初创公司凭借一款无需人工干预即可执行复杂任务的人工智能应用，在硅谷引起了广泛关注。

Meta’s purchase of Manus became a rare deal that linked talent from the United States and China, which are vying for dominance over cutting-edge A.I. It was Meta’s second acquisition in a matter of months after the Silicon Valley company, which owns Facebook and Instagram, was found not to have violated U.S. antitrust law in November. Meta is spending billions on A.I. researchers and data centers in a race to lead the technology.

Meta收购Manus成为一笔罕见的交易，它将来自美国和中国的人才联系在一起——两国正争夺前沿人工智能领域的主导地位。这也是Meta在数月内进行的第二起收购，此前这家拥有Facebook和Instagram的硅谷企业在去年11月被认定未违反美国反垄断法。Meta正投入数十亿美元用于人工智能研究人员和数据中心建设，以争夺技术领先地位。

In January, Chinese officials said they were investigating whether the deal violated Chinese rules requiring companies to obtain approval for the export of certain technologies, including interactive A.I. systems. They are also assessing whether the deal violated China’s rules on outbound investment.

今年1月，中国官员表示，他们正在调查该交易是否违反了中国关于企业出口某些技术（包括交互式人工智能系统）需获得批准的规定。他们还在评估这笔交易是否违反了中国关于对外投资的相关规定。

With the acquisition complete, it’s unclear what the Chinese government would do. In addition to exit bans, the Chinese authorities may try to claw back the export of data, experts said, or declare that Manus’s departure to Singapore was not lawful.

由于收购已经完成，目前尚不清楚中国政府将采取何种行动。专家表示，除了出境禁令，中国当局可能试图收回已出口的数据，或宣布Manus迁往新加坡的行为不合法。

The developments send a pointed signal to an A.I. industry that, despite U.S.-Chinese tensions, has been defined by the flow of talent and technology between the two nations. The friction could shut down the path Manus took, in which Chinese executives register companies outside China to sidestep regulations from both Washington and Beijing.

事态发展向人工智能行业发出了一个明确信号——尽管中美关系紧张，但该行业一直以两国间人才和技术的流动为特征。这种摩擦可能会堵死Manus所走的路径，即中国高管在海外注册公司，以规避来自华盛顿和北京双方的监管。

Any sharper punishment would underscore growing fears in Beijing about losing A.I. talent and business to the United States. Exit bans may stoke concerns among talented Chinese engineers about leaving to work in the United States, or remaining at American companies where many have pivotal roles.

任何更严厉的惩罚都将凸显北京日益加深的担忧，即人工智能人才和业务流向美国。出境禁令可能会引发中国顶尖工程师的担忧——他们不仅担心是否还能赴美工作，也担心是否还能继续留在那些他们担任要职的美国企业里。

The moves could also trigger a reaction in Washington, where officials have recently moved to allow a greater flow of high-end A.I. chips to Chinese firms.

这些举措也可能在华盛顿引发反应。近期，美国官员才刚刚开始放宽限制，允许更多高端人工智能芯片流向中国企业。

The incident comes at a sensitive moment for the U.S.-Chinese relationship. American and Chinese officials met on Sunday and Monday to prepare for a planned visit by President Trump to China to meet Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, at the end of the month. But Mr. Trump said on Monday that he had asked the Chinese government to delay his visit because of the war in Iran. On Tuesday, he said he expected the meeting to happen in “five or six weeks.”

这一事件发生在美中关系的敏感时刻。美中官员已于周日和周一会面，为特朗普总统本月晚些时候访华与中国国家主席习近平会晤做准备。但特朗普周一表示，由于伊朗战争，他已要求中国政府推迟此次访问。周二他又称，预计会面将在“五到六周内”举行。

Last Wednesday and Thursday, the United States initiated two separate trade investigations into China and a number of other countries that are expected to result in higher tariffs.

上周三和周四，美国启动了两项分别针对中国及其他多个国家的贸易调查，预计它们将导致更高的关税。

The investigations targeted “excess capacity” in foreign factory sectors and trade in forced-labor goods, two issues that the United States has typically connected with China. In the past, Beijing responded to Washington’s trade moves by taking retaliatory actions against U.S. companies.

这些调查针对外国制造业的“产能过剩”以及涉及强迫劳动商品的贸易——这两个问题美国通常都与中国联系在一起。过去，北京方面曾通过针对美国公司采取报复性行动来回击华盛顿的贸易举措。

Shengyu Wang, a research assistant at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said the Chinese government’s scrutiny of Meta could be an effort to create “some bargaining chips ahead of the trade talks” with the United States, as well as signaling to Chinese A.I. researchers not to try to follow in Manus’s footsteps.

亚洲协会政策研究所中国分析中心研究助理王晟宇（音）表示，中国政府对Meta的审查可能是为了在与美国即将举行的贸易谈判中“增加一些谈判筹码”，同时也是向中国的人工智能研究人员发出信号，告诫他们不要试图效仿Manus的路径。

If Beijing tolerated this deal, Mr. Wang said, other Chinese A.I. researchers might try to build apps using China’s research and development ecosystem before leaving to be acquired by an American firm.

王晟宇说，如果北京方面容忍这笔交易，其他中国人工智能研究人员可能会尝试利用中国的研发生态系统开发应用，然后再离开并被美国公司收购。

Meta’s deal for Manus could come up in talks between American and Chinese officials, as could the U.S. government’s ongoing review of the Chinese internet giant Tencent’s minority stake in Epic Games, the U.S. maker of the hit video game Fortnite. Chinese electric vehicle companies have also been hoping that Beijing will press for more access to the U.S. market.

Meta收购Manus的交易可能会成为中美官员会谈的议题，同样有可能被提及的，还有美国政府正在进行的对中国互联网巨头腾讯持有Epic Games少数股权的审查。Epic Games是美国公司，开发了热门电子游戏《堡垒之夜》。中国电动汽车公司也一直希望北京方面能施压，为其争取更多进入美国市场的机会。

Many Chinese tech start-up founders aspire to launch a global hit product and attract funding from Silicon Valley investors. To get around scrutiny from Washington and Beijing, a few Chinese tech companies, including Shein and TikTok, moved their headquarters to locations like Singapore.

许多中国科技初创公司的创始人都渴望推出风靡全球的产品，并吸引硅谷投资者的资金。为了避开华盛顿和北京的审查，包括Shein和TikTok在内的一些中国科技公司已将总部迁至新加坡等地。

Roselyn Hsueh, a professor of political science at Temple University, said the practice was known as “Singapore washing.” The term refers to the idea that Chinese companies could “wash away their Chinese identity” by going to a third country, she said.

天普大学政治学教授薛媖月表示，这种做法被称为“新加坡洗白”(Singapore washing)。她解释说，这个说法指的是中国公司通过迁往第三国，“洗掉自己的中国身份”。

“You see more and more companies either doing so or wanting to do so,” she said. “For several reasons, they want to circumvent regulators, particularly in more sensitive sectors like A.I.”

她说：“你看到越来越多的公司正在这样做，或者有这种打算。出于多种原因，它们希望规避监管，尤其是在像人工智能这样更敏感的领域。”

Israeli military and political officials on Tuesday trumpeted the killing of Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto leader, as a feat of intelligence and military prowess.

以色列军方和政治官员周二大肆宣扬击杀伊朗事实上的领导人阿里·拉里贾尼，称这是情报和军事能力的杰出成就。

Combined with a deadly strike targeting top commanders of the country’s internal-security militia, it was the most damaging blow to the Iranian leadership since the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attack. Airstrikes that day killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his top military commanders in a Tehran compound.

再加上针对该国内部安全民兵高层指挥官的致命打击，这是继美以第一天的攻击之后，伊朗领导层遭受的最沉重打击。在第一天的行动中，对一个德黑兰大院的空袭杀死了最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其最高军事指挥官。

It also highlighted how heavily Israel is relying on targeted killings to achieve its war aims — especially its goal of destabilizing the Iranian government and helping make way for a popular uprising by weakening its internal-security forces. Earlier this year, those forces killed thousands of unarmed protesters.

这也凸显了以色列在实现战争目标时多么依赖定点清除——尤其是其目标是通过削弱伊朗内部安全力量来动摇伊朗政府，并为民众起义铺平道路。今年早些时候，这些力量杀害了数千名手无寸铁的抗议者。

“If we persist in this, we will give them a chance to take their fate into their own hands,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israelis in a video message Tuesday.

“如果我们坚持这样做，我们将给他们一个机会，让他们自己掌握命运，”总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周二在一段视频信息中对以色列人说。

Israel Katz, the country’s bombastic defense minister, said he had ordered the military to keep hunting down Iranian leaders and to “repeatedly cut off the head of the octopus and not let it grow.”

言辞夸张的以色列国防部长以色列·卡茨表示，他已下令军方继续追杀伊朗领导人，“反复砍掉章鱼的头，不让它再生。”

But Mr. Larijani’s death raises questions about whether Israel is killing so many Iranian leaders because that appears the surest way to achieve its military objectives — or merely because it can. The approach carries a risk of backfiring in unforeseeable ways.

但拉里贾尼之死引发了疑问：以色列之所以杀死这么多伊朗领导人，是因为这似乎是实现军事目标的最可靠方式——还是仅仅因为它有这个能力。这种做法可能会产生出人意料的反效果。

Israel has long experience eliminating its enemies.

以色列在消灭敌人方面有着丰富的经验。

In 1972, after 12 of its Olympic athletes were slain in Munich, Israel launched a yearslong campaign of vengeance aimed at killing every person responsible. In the early 2000s, it gunned down or blew up many Palestinians it accused of terrorism during the Second Intifada. And in 2024, it killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in an airstrike on his headquarters in Beirut. (His successor was killed in an airstrike days later.)

1972年，12名以色列运动员在慕尼黑奥运会期间被杀，以色列随后发起了一场长达数年的复仇行动，目标是杀死每一名责任人。2000年代初，在“第二次起义”期间，以色列枪杀或炸死了许多被其指控从事恐怖主义的巴勒斯坦人。2024年，它在贝鲁特总部空袭中杀死了真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。（他的继任者在几天后的空袭中也被杀死。）

Some Israeli analysts say there is at least some basis to believe that the tactic could now undercut Iran enough that the government signals a readiness to compromise on its nuclear ambitions and ballistic-missile capabilities.

一些以色列分析人士表示，至少有一定依据相信，这种战术现在可能足以削弱伊朗，让政府表示愿意在核野心和弹道导弹能力上做出妥协。

Sima Shine, a former Mossad officer and expert on Iran and its proxies at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted that the Nasrallah killing helped weaken Hezbollah to the point that the Iranian-backed militant group agreed to a cease-fire with Israel in late 2024.

前摩萨德官员、特拉维夫国家安全研究所伊朗及其代理人问题专家西玛·希恩指出，杀死纳斯鲁拉有助于削弱真主党，以至于这个伊朗支持的武装团体在2024年底同意与以色列停火。

“It might come to a point where they say, this is too much for us,” Ms. Shine said. “We are not there yet, and they’re not saying it, but it might happen.”

“到了一定的时候，他们可能会说，我们撑不下去了，”希恩说。“我们还没到那一步，他们还没这么说，但这是有可能的。”

本月在德黑兰，伊朗人悼念逝世的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。

Eliminating commanders of the internal security militia, the Basij, could similarly go a long way toward persuading its lower-ranking members “to wake up in the morning and not go to work,” she said.

消灭内部安全民兵巴斯基的指挥官，同样可能在很大程度上说服其低级别成员“早上醒来决定不去上班”，她说。

But killing a top Iranian leader like Mr. Larijani could prove counterproductive, depending on who takes his place, Israeli analysts warned.

但以色列分析人士警告，杀死像拉里贾尼这样的伊朗高层领导人可能适得其反，这取决于谁接替他的位置。

Mr. Larijani had a reputation as a pragmatist capable of working with moderates and hard-line military leaders alike, she said. His death could bolster hard-liners like the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, himself a former I.R.G.C. commander.

希恩说，拉里贾尼以务实著称，能够同时与温和派和强硬派军事领导人合作。他的死亡可能加强像伊斯兰革命卫队负责人以及伊朗议会发言人穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫这样的强硬派的力量，后者本身也是前革命卫队指挥官。

“They are the ones actually conducting the war,” Ms. Shine said. “And strengthening the I.R.G.C. means continuing the resistance, continuing the war, and making demands that are unacceptable to the U.S. and Israel.”

“他们才是真正指挥这场战争的人，”希恩说。“加强革命卫队意味着继续抵抗、继续战争，并提出美国和以色列无法接受的要求。”

Others argue that Iran’s leadership — its “bench,” in sports terms — is too deep for Israel ever to bring its government to the point of collapse. After Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, Iran named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a fellow hard-liner, to succeed him as supreme leader.

其他人则认为，伊朗领导层的“板凳深度”（借用体育术语）太深，以色列永远无法把这个政府推到崩溃边缘。哈梅内伊被杀后，伊朗任命了他的儿子、同样强硬的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊接任最高领袖。

“Decapitation has its limitations,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence. “I don’t think we’ve scratched the surface in the ability of Iran to find replacements that can take over for the people that have been decapitated.”

“斩首有其局限性，”前以色列军事情报伊朗部门负责人丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。“伊朗在斩首行动后能找到替代者，我认为我们还远未影响到他们在这方面的能力。”

Mr. Citrinowicz noted that Israel killed nearly all of Hamas’s leaders in Gaza, and both Mr. Nasrallah and his successor as Hezbollah’s leader. Yet both organizations are still functioning, if significantly weakened.

西特里诺维奇指出，以色列几乎杀死了加沙哈马斯的所有领导人，以及真主党的纳斯鲁拉及其继任者。然而这两个组织仍在运作，尽管明显削弱。

“It’s not that I don’t think decapitation is an important tool,” he said. “But we can’t build a strategy only on that.”

“并不是说我认为斩首不是重要工具，”他说。“但我们不能把斩首作为唯一战略。”

A healthy respect for the unknown — like unintended consequences — also argues against an overreliance on targeted killings, said Ami Ayalon, 80, a former commander of Israel’s internal security agency and of its navy.

前以色列国内安全机构和海军指挥官、现年80岁的阿米·阿亚隆也反对过度依赖定点清除，因为对未知的东西应该留有一些敬畏——比如意想不到的后果。

In an interview, he recalled warning disbelieving American officials that toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq would unleash chaos, not the flowering of democracy.

在一次采访中，他回忆起曾警告不相信他的美国官员，推翻伊拉克萨达姆·侯赛因将引发混乱，而不是民主之花绽放。

“We are very, very close to creating chaos not only in Iran, but all over the Middle East,” Mr. Ayalon said.

“我们非常、非常接近在伊朗乃至整个中东制造混乱，”阿亚隆说。

He faulted American and Israeli leaders for failing to articulate clear, achievable objectives for the war. And he suggested that Mr. Netanyahu’s optimistic but vague talk of “creating the conditions” for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime was misguided, misleading or both.

他指责美国和以色列领导人未能就这场战争明确阐述一个清晰、可实现的目标。他还表示，内塔尼亚胡乐观但模糊地谈论“为伊朗人民推翻政权创造条件”，这要么他被误导了，要么是他在误导人，或两者兼有。

“Let’s assume that Bibi is right,” he said, using Mr. Netanyahu’s nickname. “It will take months or years. There are millions of people who depend on the regime, and they understand that on the day after the war, they’re going to be slaughtered. And they will fight and kill in order to not see that happen.”

“假设比比是对的，”他用内塔尼亚胡的昵称说。“这需要几个月或几年。有数百万人依赖这个政权，他们明白战争结束后他们立刻会被杀死。为了不让那一天到来，他们会战斗、会杀人。”

Mr. Ayalon added: “In chess, there are stupid players who think that it’s enough to kill the king to win. But in the case of ideology, every player plays a major role on the battlefield.”

阿亚隆补充道：“在国际象棋中，有些愚蠢的棋手以为杀死国王就赢了。但在意识形态层面，每个人都在战场上扮演重要角色。”