When the Chinese standup comedian Chizi decided this year to go on tour for the first time since he got into trouble with his government three years ago, he was certain about just one thing: Some people would come to the shows — in Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore — to see a “rebel comedian.”

今年决定举办自三年前招惹政府以来的首次巡演时，中国脱口秀演员池子能确定的只有一件事：在日本、台湾、马来西亚和新加坡的演出，有些人是为看一位“反贼喜剧演员”而来。

He knew he could play up that image, pulling jokes from a folder on his phone labeled “Cannot Say” — material sure to enrage Chinese censors. He had done exactly that during a tour in Canada and the United States three years earlier, when he mocked the country’s censorship and the prejudices faced by ethnic minorities.

他知道自己可以利用这个形象，从手机上一个标着“不能讲”的文件夹里翻出一些笑话——这些段子肯定会激怒中国的审查者。三年前他在加拿大和美国的巡演中就是这么做的，当时他嘲讽了国家的审查制度以及少数民族面临的偏见。

Or he could make the show more personal, introducing himself to a new audience of Mandarin Chinese speakers in other parts of Asia. Steering away from the obviously political was a choice he knew would not please members of the Chinese diaspora who are critical of the current government.

或者，他可以让演出更个人化，向亚洲其他地区的普通话观众介绍自己。他知道避开明显的政治内容会让那些批评现政府的海外华人不满意。

His North America tour in 2023 had cost him. All references to him were deleted from the Chinese internet, he became toxic in his industry and he was unable to practice his craft in China, losing his core audience and his income. Now doing shows in total freedom, he finds himself resisting a different sort of constraint: the expectation that he will perform the role of rebel.

2023年的北美巡演让他付出了代价。中国互联网上所有关于他的内容都被删除，业内人人对他避之不及，他无法在中国从事自己的工作，失去了核心观众和收入。然而，如今在完全自由的环境中表演，他却发现自己在抵抗另一种束缚：人们期望他扮演“反贼”的角色。

It is an expectation that offends his sense of artistic integrity. He is not an ideologue. He wants to tell stories and let people think for themselves rather than imposing a conclusion. Doing anything else, he said, would be the mirror image of the Chinese propaganda he grew up with.

这种期望是对他的艺术操守的侵犯。他不是一个意识形态分子。他想讲故事，让人们自己思考，而不是强加结论。他说，否则就只是把他从小耳濡目染的中国宣传换个说法而已。

He just wants to be a comedian. For a Chinese performer, that turns out to be a radical enough ambition.

他只想做一个喜剧演员。对于一名中国表演者来说，这原来已经是一个足够激进的抱负。

Laughter as an Outlet

笑作为出口

在东京的演出前，池子在后台把塑料水瓶当成麦克风练习段子。

Chizi, a nickname that means “pond,” was born in 1995 in central Henan Province. His real name is Wang Yuechi. The given name Yuechi comes from a Chinese idiom: Never go beyond prescribed limits. His parents chose it hoping he would do the opposite.

池子1995年出生于河南中部，本名王越池。“越池”这个名字来自一个中文成语：不越雷池。父母给他取这个名字，希望他做相反的事。

His family moved to Beijing when he was 8 years old, hoping to provide better schools and opportunities for their son. He was the kind of restless, funny kid who made his classmates laugh and frequently got into trouble for it.

八岁时，他全家搬到北京，希望为他提供更好的学校和机会。他是那种坐不住、爱逗乐的孩子，常惹同学笑，也因此经常惹麻烦。

As a teenager, he watched American standup online — George Carlin, Dave Chappelle, Chris Rock — and thought China could never produce anything like it. “It’s too sharp, too dangerous,” he said. But in 2015, he came across an advertisement for a small outfit holding open-mic standup nights. For his first performance, he scribbled jokes on bits of paper. He was a natural.

青少年时期，他在网上观看美国脱口秀——乔治·卡林、戴夫·夏佩尔、克里斯·洛克——并认为中国永远无法产生类似的东西。“太尖锐、太危险了，”他说。但2015年，他看到一则小型开放麦脱口秀活动的广告。第一次表演时，他在纸片上潦草写下笑话。他天生适合干这个。

In its early years in China, standup comedy was performed exclusively in small bars with little interference. Comics even made fun of the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, Chizi told me. In the late 2010s, as the government tightened controls over personal expression — banning male earrings, tattoos and flamboyant hair colors on TV — standup comedy, somewhat paradoxically, became one of the most popular forms of entertainment.

在中国早期，脱口秀只在小酒吧演出，几乎不受干扰。池子告诉我，喜剧演员甚至拿中国领导人习近平开玩笑。在2010年代后期，随着政府加强对个人表达的控制——禁止男艺人在电视上戴耳环、纹身和夸张发色，脱口秀却有些矛盾地成为最受欢迎的娱乐形式之一。

“The more pressure there is, the more people need laughter as an outlet,” Chizi said.

“越高压越需要笑作为出口，”池子说。

In 2017, the same year his mother died from brain cancer, Chizi became a regular on “Roast,” a new television show featuring comics that attracted nearly 1.4 billion views during its first season.

2017年——他母亲因脑癌去世的那一年，池子成为新电视节目《吐槽大会》的常规演员，该节目第一季获得了近14亿观看量。

But as standup gained popularity, government oversight arrived with it. Writers had to submit their material to censors and were not allowed to go off script. Taboo topics included national leaders, homosexuality, gambling, poverty and the pandemic.

但随着脱口秀的流行，政府监管也随之而来。作者必须向审查者提交素材，不能即兴发挥。禁忌话题包括国家领导人、同性恋、赌博、贫困和疫情。

池子建了一个“不能讲”的文件夹；里面都是他写下但永远无法在中国表演的笑话。

Chizi responded by writing down everything he wasn’t allowed to say. Over time, this became his “Cannot Say” folder: jokes he had written but could never perform in China.

池子的回应是写下所有他不被允许说的内容。随着时间推移，这成了他的“不能讲”文件夹：他写下但永远无法在中国表演的笑话。

But he found other ways to publicly defy the system. He mailed his social media followers physical copies of the Chinese Constitution with the clause protecting freedom of speech highlighted. When regulators issued an official document labeling his dreadlocks “strange,” he daringly posted a screenshot on Weibo, a popular social media platform, and wore the most ridiculous hats he could find at subsequent shows, turning the censorship itself into the joke.

但他找到了其他公开反抗体制的方式。他给社交媒体粉丝邮寄中国宪法的实体副本，并在保护言论自由的条款上做了高亮。当监管机构发布官方文件将他的脏辫标记为“奇装异服”时，他大胆地在微博上发布截图，并在随后的演出中戴上他能找到的最荒谬的帽子，把审查本身变成了笑话。

At 23, at the height of his fame, Chizi quit “Roast.” The work, he said, had grown too commercial for his tastes, and the studio that had signed him wanted control of his social media account, calling the things he said “too dangerous.”

23岁时，池子在名气最盛时退出了《吐槽大会》。他说，这份工作变得太商业化，而签他的工作室想要控制他的社交媒体账号，认为他说的话“太危险”。

Then came the North America tour and the ban. He returned to China, keeping a low profile, but, unable to perform, he left at the end of 2024 in self-imposed exile.

随后是北美巡演和禁令。他回到中国，保持低调，但由于无法表演，他在2024年底选择自我放逐。

The industry he left behind has been facing an existential crisis as censorship has intensified. In mid-2023, Beijing fined Chizi’s former employer around $2 million for a joke that compared China’s military to stray dogs. A few months ago, a female standup comedian joked on Weibo that she felt fortunate not to have a husband and children she would have to cook for while she was sick with a fever. Her account was suspended for “causing anxiety about marriage and childbirth” and for “provoking gender antagonism.”

他离开的行业正因审查加剧面临生存危机。2023年年中，北京对池子的前雇主处以1400万元罚款，原因是其中一个笑话将中国军队比作流浪狗。几个月前，一位女脱口秀演员在微博上开玩笑说，她生病发烧时幸好没有丈夫和孩子需要她做饭。她的账号因“引发婚姻生育焦虑”和“挑起性别对立”被封。

A Nervous Return

紧张的回归

购票观众在东京新宿文化会馆外排队等待池子的首场演出。现场大约来了1000人。一些观众表示，他们是来听那些在中国无法表达的心声的。

For the past year and a half, Chizi has been traveling the world and not doing much, which his savings make possible, he said. He’s learning to meditate and cook — his favorite dish is eggs and tomatoes — and tracks what is and isn’t allowed on Chinese social media. He said he was still enraged by injustice back home. Now he posts photos of clouds on Instagram.

过去一年半，池子一直在环游世界，没做什么正事，他说他的积蓄允许他这么做。他在学习冥想和做饭（他最喜欢西红柿炒蛋），并关注中国社交媒体上什么被允许、什么不被允许。他说，他仍然对国内的不公感到愤怒。现在他在Instagram上发云的照片。

His return to the stage began with a plan to do only one show, in Taiwan. Then word spread. Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore were added to the tour. To his surprise, all but one show sold out. (He now has shows planned for North America and Australia.)

他这次重返舞台始于一个在台湾演出一场的计划。后来消息传开。东京、吉隆坡和新加坡被加入巡演。令他惊讶的是，除了一个场地外，所有演出都售罄。（他现在计划在北美和澳大利亚举办演出。）

Half an hour before his first show, in front of 1,000 people, in Tokyo in April, he was still rewriting jokes. He had not tested his material at an open mic. Rather, he practiced in front of an imaginary audience, holding a plastic bottle as a microphone. He had no idea whether his jokes would land.

4月在东京，即将面对1000名观众进行首场演出前半小时，他还在改段子。他没有在开放麦测试过素材，而是对着想象中的观众练习，拿塑料瓶当麦克风。他不知道自己的笑话是否会受欢迎。

The people who stood in line outside the theater had come to hear a rebel. “If he’s not saying things that can’t be said, why would I come?” said Jason Li, a 39-year-old I.T. worker who moved to Japan from China in 2022. “Otherwise, I might as well watch Chinese television.” Most of the people I interviewed, like Mr. Li, were Chinese immigrants who recently moved to Japan, part of a wave leaving China after the pandemic. Backstage, Chizi stretched, squatted and jumped to calm his nerves.

在剧院外排队的人是来听“反贼”的。“如果他不说那些不能说的东西，我为什么要来？”39岁的IT从业者杰森·李说，他2022年从中国移居日本。“不然我还不如看中国电视。”我采访的大多数人都是李先生这样疫情后离开中国的移民，刚搬到日本不久。在后台，池子用拉伸、下蹲、跳跃来平复紧张。

Wide-shouldered and lanky, Chizi makes a dramatic impression. A few days before the show, he shaved his famous dreadlocks. But when he walked onstage in an oversize white T-shirt, a pair of black pants, and white and red Nike sneakers, the nerves were still visible. He forgot a few lines. He paused awkwardly a couple of times. Later, on social media, he would offer an apology for what he considered his poor performance. “I could do better,” he wrote. The audience didn’t seem to mind. The people chuckled, laughed and applauded.

肩宽瘦高的池子有种戏剧化的形象。演出前几天，他剃掉了著名的脏辫。但当他穿着超大白色T恤、黑色裤子和白红相间的Nike球鞋走上舞台时，紧张依然可见。他忘了几句台词，有几次尴尬地停顿。后来，他在社交媒体上为他认为的糟糕表现道歉。“我可以做得更好，”他写道。观众似乎并不在意。人们轻笑、大笑并鼓掌。

He riffed mostly about his childhood — teachers who humiliated him for disrupting class, a mother who loved and hit him, being an outlier in a country that didn’t tolerate curiosity and individuality. The material was personal, even tender at moments. Political references were sprinkled throughout, but they were subtle.

他主要即兴谈论童年——羞辱他扰乱课堂的老师、爱他也打他的母亲、在一个不容忍好奇心和个性的国家里做一个异类。素材很个人化，甚至有些时刻很温柔。政治指涉贯穿其中，但都很含蓄。

Then, near the end of the set, he referred to Mr. Xi, China’s paramount leader, obliquely as “the husband of Peng Liyuan,” the folk singer who was once far more famous than her husband. Several women in front of me who had been laughing and clapping went suddenly still. Talking about Mr. Xi in an unfavorable fashion is the ultimate taboo in China. Reducing him to his domestic relationship in a public event was shocking.

然后，在演出接近尾声时，他间接地把中国最高领导人习近平称为“彭丽媛的丈夫”——那位曾比丈夫更出名的民歌歌手。我前排的几位女性原本一直在笑和鼓掌，突然安静下来。在中国，以负面的方式谈论习近平是终极禁忌。在公开场合把他简化为一种家庭成员关系是惊人的。

After the show, we sat down to talk. He chose his words carefully. When I relayed a friend’s criticism — similar to others’ online — that he seemed to have pulled his punches on Xi Jinping, he laughed. “It’s not meant to satisfy you,” he said. The choice he made onstage was deliberate.

演出结束后，我们坐下来聊天。他的措辞很谨慎。当我转述一位朋友的批评——类似网上其他人的看法——说他在习近平的问题上有所保留时，他笑了。“就是为了让你不满足，”他说。他在台上的选择是故意的。

Free speech is a tool, he told me. The temptation is to use it simply because you can. “It’s exhilarating,” he said. But that, he added, can be a trap, and chasing approval is its own form of corruption, as dangerous to comedy as censorship itself.

他告诉我，言论自由是一种工具。诱惑在于，仅仅因为你可以，你就会去用它。“这很令人兴奋，”他说。但他补充说，这可能是个陷阱，追逐认可本身就是一种腐化，对喜剧的危险程度不亚于审查本身。

“It’s easy to be a rebel,” he said. “It’s much harder to be a good comedian.”

“当反贼很简单，”他说。“当好的喜剧演员不容易。”

An Artful Detour

绕弯的魅力

The next morning, we met for breakfast and talked again about why he didn’t make more political jokes the night before. Geography played a role, he admitted. Standup depends on shared context. Audiences in the tour’s cities do not always share the same references, he said, but they would understand childhood, family and school.

第二天早上，我们一起吃早餐，再次谈论他前一晚为什么没有讲更多政治笑话。他承认，地理位置起了作用。脱口秀依赖共享语境。他说，巡演城市里的观众并不总是都能理解某个典故，但他们都能理解童年、家庭和学校。

He also thought his reference to Mr. Xi merely as a husband was an artful detour, more sophisticated than calling out his name.

他还认为，他仅仅把习近平称为丈夫的指涉是一种巧妙的绕弯，比直接点名更精妙。

Since his childhood, he always liked a detour. If he needed to get from A to B, he said, “I’d always climb to the highest spot, jump down, hop over a few railings, spin around and only then get where I was going.”

他从小就喜欢“绕弯”。他说，如果他需要从A到B，“我总是先爬到最高的地方，跳下来，翻过几个栏杆，转几圈，然后才到达目的地。”

“It’s simply more fun,” he said.

“这样更好玩，”他说。

He liked the comedian Trevor Noah, whose stories about his mother and his South African childhood reveal themselves as a portrait of a society. As he was working on the material for the tour, he discovered that his own childhood stories, too, kept emerging with sharp edges, textured with pain, anger and absurdity. He hoped the audience would feel that, too.

他喜欢喜剧演员特雷弗·诺亚，他的关于母亲和南非童年的故事最终勾勒出一幅社会的画像。在为这次巡演准备素材时，他发现自己的童年故事也不断带着尖锐的棱角浮现出来，充满痛苦、愤怒和荒诞。他希望观众也能感受到这一点。

I asked Chizi whether he considered himself an exile. “Absolutely,” he said. He knew he could not return to China if he didn’t censor himself.

我问池子是否认为自己是流亡者。“绝对是，”他说。他知道如果不自我审查，他就无法回到中国。

After the show in Tokyo, I talked to a member of the audience, Ms. Zhou, a 59-year-old freelance translator who left China in late 2023, around the time Chizi was barred. She told me that she laughed harder than she had in years at the performance, but she also felt something heavier beneath it.

东京演出结束后，我和一位姓周的女性观众交谈。她59岁，是一名自由职业译者，2023年底离开中国，差不多就是池子被禁的时候。她告诉我，她很多年没有笑得这么厉害了，但也感受到更沉重的东西。

“Freedom feels so good,” she blurted out as she walked out the theater. Then she caught herself. That this kind of enjoyment could happen only outside China, she said, left her fighting back tears.

“自由感觉太好了，”她走出剧院时脱口而出。然后她顿住了。这种享受只能在中国之外发生，她强忍着眼泪说。

President Trump on Wednesday issued a fiery defense of his deal with Iran, lashing out at critics who have said the agreement achieves even less than the one President Barack Obama negotiated, and threatening to bomb Iran again if it doesn’t adhere to the agreement.

特朗普总统周三为他与伊朗达成的协议做了激烈的辩护，抨击那些声称该协议成果甚至不如奥巴马总统谈判达成协议的批评者。他还威胁称，如果伊朗不遵守该协议，将再次对其进行轰炸。

Appearing at the Group of 7 summit of global leaders in Évian-les-Bains, France, Mr. Trump denied that the United States was, in effect, paying Iran to agree to the recently negotiated peace deal. And in an expletive-laden rant, he proclaimed that his deal was better than the one Mr. Obama signed with Tehran in 2015.

在法国埃维昂莱班举行的七国集团全球领导人峰会上，特朗普否认美国实际上是在付钱给伊朗，换取伊朗同意最近谈判达成的和平协议。在一通夹杂粗口的怒斥中，他宣称他的协议比奥巴马2015年与德黑兰签署的协议更好。

“And you know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama, and they said, ‘He’s a stupid son of a bitch,’” Mr. Trump said.

“你们知道伊朗人做了什么吗？他们嘲笑奥巴马，他们说，‘他是个愚货、浑蛋，’”特朗普说。

A spokeswoman for Mr. Obama said he would not be commenting on Wednesday, but referred to his remarks from an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America” over the weekend. In it, he said that he doubted that the new deal would be “significantly different or a significant improvement” from the one his administration negotiated. He said that it was a reminder that the United States cannot just “bully our way or bomb our way to solutions.”

奥巴马的一位发言人表示，奥巴马不会在周三发表评论，但提到了奥巴马周末接受ABC《早安美国》节目采访时的讲话。在采访中，奥巴马表示，他怀疑新协议与他的政府通过谈判所达成的协议相比，可能未有“显著不同或重大改进”。他说，这提醒人们，美国不能只是依靠“霸凌或轰炸来解决问题”。

Mr. Trump’s remarks came as a senior U.S. official disclosed what the official said was the full text of the deal. The official read it aloud on a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House.

特朗普发表上述言论之际，一名美国高级官员披露了该官员称为协议全文的内容。周三，该官员在与记者的电话会议中宣读了该文本，根据白宫制定的基本规则，他要求匿名发言。

The deal would, among other things, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, outline a $300 billon plan for Iran’s reconstruction and at least temporarily lift restrictions on the country’s oil exports, according to the official. But it would push talks about Iran’s nuclear program — the central reason given for the U.S.-Israeli attacks that began in February — into a 60-day negotiation period.

该官员透露，该协议内容包括重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，制定一项3000亿美元的伊朗重建计划，并至少暂时取消对伊朗石油出口的限制。但该协议将把关于伊朗核计划的谈判推入为期60天的谈判期，核问题是始于2月的美以袭击的核心理由。

Mr. Trump had denied reports that the deal included U.S. investment in the reconstruction fund or any immediate sanctions relief, two of the points that have drawn the most attention. But the $300 billion fund it outlines could provide Iran with much more money than the deal Mr. Obama negotiated.

特朗普曾否认该协议将包括美国对重建基金的投资或立即解除制裁的报道，这两点备受关注。但该协议所述的3000亿美元基金可能为伊朗提供的资金远超奥巴马谈判达成的协议。

The deal says the United States will work with regional partners to “develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least” $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. The fund will go into effect once a final deal is reached within 60 days, the agreement states.

该协议称，美国将与地区合作伙伴共同努力，“制定一项明确的、双方同意的计划，至少提供”3000亿美元用于伊朗的重建和经济发展。协议规定，一旦在60天内达成最终协议，该基金将生效。

Mr. Trump left open the possibility that Persian Gulf states could provide the money for the fund. Mr. Trump has railed against Mr. Obama for providing $1.7 billion in cash to Iran after the 2015 nuclear agreement was signed.

特朗普对波斯湾国家可能为该基金提供资金的可能性持开放态度。特朗普曾猛烈抨击奥巴马在2015年核协议签署后向伊朗提供了17亿美元现金。

But he said on Wednesday that the U.S. military had so badly damaged Iran during the war that the country needed help.

但他周三表示，美国军队在战争期间对伊朗造成了严重破坏，以至于伊朗需要帮助。

“Unlike Barack Hussein Obama, who sent Iran pallets of cash, any relief they receive under this deal, they’ll have to get based on merit — and it won’t be from us,” he said. “We don’t have to give them anything. But some people may want to invest.”

“不像贝拉克·侯赛因·奥巴马那样用托盘给伊朗送去一盘一盘的现金，根据这项协议，他们要想获得救济，就必须凭着自己的表现来争取——而且援助不是我们来给，”他说。“我们不需要给他们任何东西。但是有些人可能愿意投资。”

A diplomat said that work on the fund was already underway.

一名外交官表示，该基金的筹备工作已经开始。

Commitments amounting to half of the $300 billion figure have already been made, including from companies in the United States, the Middle East, Asia, South America and Africa, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

这名要求匿名以讨论敏感谈判的外交官表示，目前已获得相当于3000亿美元半数金额的承诺，来自美国、中东、亚洲、南美和非洲的公司。

The fund would be a conduit for private investment, not a reconstruction or reparations program, the diplomat said. Details about the funding pledges were initially reported by Reuters.

该外交官表示，该基金将作为私人投资渠道，而非重建或赔偿计划。有关资金承诺的细节最初由路透社报道。

Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have already electronically signed a framework agreement on the deal, along with the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led that country’s negotiating team, a senior U.S. official said. American and Iranian leaders are expected to formally sign the agreement in Switzerland.

一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普和副总统万斯已经以电子方式签署了关于该协议的框架协议，伊朗议会议长、领导该国谈判团队的穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫也是如此。预计美伊领导人将在瑞士正式签署该协议。

Once the agreement is formally signed, the United States will issue waivers allowing Iran to export its crude oil. Critics have said that relief for the Iranian oil industry rewards Tehran merely for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping route that was open before Iran effectively closed it at the start of the war.

一旦协议正式签署，美国将发布豁免，允许伊朗出口其原油。批评人士指出，对伊朗石油工业的制裁豁免无非是对德黑兰重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的奖励，这条关键的石油运输航线在战争开始时被伊朗实际封锁，此前一直是开放畅通的。

In an effort to resolve the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be used to build at least 10 bombs, experts say, the deal requires Iran to weaken it by “down-blending” it — or effectively diluting it — on site, under the supervision of international atomic inspectors. It does not require Iran to give up that material and ship it out of the country.

为解决伊朗高浓缩铀库存的处置问题——专家称，这些铀可用于制造至少10枚核弹——该协议要求伊朗在国际原子能检查员的监督下在现场通过“向下混合”（实质上的稀释）来降低其浓度。协议并未要求伊朗放弃该物质并将其运出境外。

The agreement says the United States will also lift sanctions on Iran “in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal” that the two sides would negotiate within 60 days. Relief from crushing economic sanctions may be the ultimate lever that can persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal brokered by Mr. Obama traded sanctions relief for strict caps on Tehran’s nuclear activity.

协议称，作为双方将在60天谈判中达成的“最终协议的一部分”，美国还将“按照商定的时间表”解除对伊朗的制裁。解除毁灭性的经济制裁可能是说服伊朗放弃其核计划的最终杠杆。奥巴马促成的2015年伊朗核协议正是以解除制裁换取对德黑兰核活动的严格限制。

The new deal calls on Iran to allow commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely and “with no charge for 60 days only.” After that, it indicates, Iran and Oman will work out a deal to administer ship traffic in the strait in consultation with other Gulf nations. Mr. Trump has said the passageway must be “permanently toll-free.” But Iran has said it plans to charge “fees” in exchange for unspecified “services” it provides there.

新协议要求伊朗允许商船安全通过霍尔木兹海峡，并且“仅在60天内不收通行费”。协议表明，在此之后，伊朗和阿曼将与其他海湾国家协商，就海峡船舶交通的管理达成协议。特朗普曾表示，该通道必须“永久免收通行费”。但伊朗表示，计划收取“费用”，以换取该国在那里提供的未具体说明的“服务”。

The deal also seeks to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, by committing the United States, Iran and their allies to immediately stopping military operations on “all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Neither Israel nor Hezbollah have signed on to the deal, and both have indicated that they will not be bound by it.

该协议还试图结束以色列与黎巴嫩境内伊朗支持的民兵组织真主党之间的战争，承诺美国、伊朗及其盟友立即停止在“包括黎巴嫩在内的所有战线”的军事行动。以色列和真主党都未签署该协议，且双方均已表示不会受其约束。

Israel has said it has no plans to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon, and it reported more attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli soldiers there on Wednesday. The group has fired rockets and drones into Israel.

以色列表示不打算从黎巴嫩南部撤军，并报告称周三真主党对驻扎在那里的以色列士兵发动了更多袭击。该组织曾向以色列境内发射火箭弹和无人机。

Some Republicans expressed concerns about the emerging details of the deal. Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, said the 14 points of the agreement made public on Wednesday were “not sufficient for me to say it’s a good deal.”

一些共和党人对逐渐浮出水面的协议细节表示担忧。北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯表示，周三公布的协议中的14点内容“不足以让我说这是一项好协议”。

Mr. Tillis said he and other senators needed to receive “a detailed, secure briefing” from Trump administration officials. “It would be irresponsible of any member to just accept at face value what we know about it,” he said.

蒂利斯表示，他和其他参议员需要听取特朗普政府官员“详细、安全的简报”。“任何议员如果仅仅凭表面信息就接受我们目前所了解的内容，那将是不负责任的，”他说。

But Mr. Trump said of the preliminary agreement: “It’s very strong. Most people seem to be very happy.” He added, referring to a surge in stocks in recent days, “Who’s really happy is the market.”

但特朗普在谈到这份初步协议时表示：“它很强。大多数人好像都很高兴。”在提到最近几天股市飙升时，他还说：“真正高兴的是市场。”

Even so, he warned that he would order more attacks if he decided that Tehran was violating the terms.

尽管如此，他警告说，如果他认定德黑兰违反了条款，他将下令发动更多袭击。

“If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head,” he said while speaking to reporters alongside President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt.

“如果我不满意，如果他们不守规矩，我们就直接回去，把炸弹直接砸在他们脑袋正中间，”他在与埃及总统阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西共同接受记者采访时说。

When Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany presented President Trump with a soccer jersey emblazoned with the number 47 on Tuesday morning, it was the kind of gesture that a foreign leader might have made during his first term: flattering, emollient, and calculated to please.

周二上午，德国总理默茨向特朗普总统赠送了一件印有数字“47”的足球球衣，这是那种外国领导人在特朗普第一个任期内可能会做的姿态：讨好、安抚、刻意取悦。

But Mr. Merz was doing it after a rancorous stretch, in which he and other European leaders condemned the war in Iran, provoking Mr. Trump to announce that the United States would pull some American troops from the Continent.

但默茨这样做的背景却是此前一段充满火药味的时期。他和其他欧洲领导人谴责了伊朗战争，导致特朗普勃然大怒，宣布美国将从欧洲大陆撤出部分驻军。

Europe’s alliance with the United States may still be on the rocks, but on the first full day of a Group of 7 summit meeting at this Alpine spa town in France, the leaders showed they remained ready to behave politely toward Mr. Trump.

欧美同盟关系或许仍在风雨飘摇之中，但在法国这座阿尔卑斯山温泉小镇举行的七国集团峰会入第一个完整会议日之际，各国领导人表现出他们仍然愿意对特朗普以礼相待。

For all the sharp elbows of the last year, they appear to have concluded that the best way to deal with a disruptive president is to court him, particularly since they still hope to engage the United States on thorny issues like the war in Ukraine.

尽管过去一年双方摩擦不断，欧洲领导人似乎已经得出结论：应对这位善于制造混乱的总统最好的办法就是主动示好，尤其是在他们仍希望美国参与解决乌克兰战争等棘手问题的情况下。

“We’re on the same team,” Mr. Merz said of the president on social media, wishing him a belated happy 80th birthday.

默茨在社交媒体上谈到特朗普时写道：“我们是同一队的。”同时，还补上了迟到的80岁生日祝福。

Such conciliatory words would have seemed improbable even a week ago, given the bitter split over Iran, Mr. Trump’s threats to take over Greenland and his regular hectoring of Europe’s centrist leaders — all of which persuaded several of them that America was no longer an ally, and was even, in some cases, a threat.

哪怕在一周前，这样缓和的表态似乎都还不太可能出现。毕竟，双方在伊朗问题上存在严重分歧，特朗普威胁要接管格陵兰岛，还时常对欧洲的中间派领导人颐指气使——这一切都让几位欧洲领导人深信，美国已不再是盟友，在某些情况下甚至是一种威胁。

周二，特朗普与其他领导人合影留念。

Now, though, Mr. Trump has presented at least the contours of a peace deal with Iran, and Europe’s leaders have gone back to charming him.

但现在，特朗普至少拿出了与伊朗和平协议的框架，欧洲领导人重又开始对他展开魅力攻势。

“That’s how diplomacy delivers,” said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, congratulating Mr. Trump on the framework. She said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, drive down oil prices and perhaps even ultimately put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“这就是外交的成效，”欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在祝贺特朗普达成该框架协议时表示。她说，这将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、让油价降下来，甚至有可能最终终结伊朗的核野心。

At one level, the bonhomie was scarcely a surprise. Even in the absence of a peace accord, analysts and diplomats predicted that the other six leaders in the Group of 7, representing the world’s advanced industrial countries, would work to prevent the meeting from collapsing in acrimony.

从某种程度上说，这种亲善气氛并不令人意外。即使没有和平协议，分析人士和外交官也预计，七国集团（代表全球主要发达工业国家）的另外六位领导人都会努力避免会议陷入争吵和不欢而散的局面。

“Europeans in private now broadly accept that they can’t wait out Trump and that something quite fundamental in the trans-Atlantic relationship has changed,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a research group with offices in Berlin and London.

“欧洲人现在私下里普遍接受了一个现实：他们无法等到特朗普任期结束，而且跨大西洋关系中一些根本性的东西已经发生了变化，”欧洲对外关系委员会研究主任杰里米·夏皮罗说，该研究机构在柏林和伦敦设有办事处。

“But of course the rupture does not give Europeans an alternative plan,” Mr. Shapiro said. “So, they have to play nice with Trump.”

“但当然，关系破裂并没有给欧洲人提供一个替代方案，”夏皮罗说。“所以，他们必须对特朗普客气一些。”

The president also shook up the calculus by announcing his peace agreement on the eve of the gathering. If the United States and Iran were to conclude a definitive deal — a major if, given all the uncertainties — it would be an economic lift to European economies that have been choked by the disruption to oil and gas shipments.

特朗普在峰会前夕宣布达成和平协议也打乱了各方的盘算。若美伊最终达成正式协议——考虑到各种不确定因素，这仍然是个巨大的未知数——将对饱受油气运输中断之苦的欧洲经济带来提振。

The three months of hostilities between the United States and Iran have put Europe’s leaders in a nearly impossible position. They have been caught between Mr. Trump, who castigated them for failing to support the effort even as he demeaned their potential contributions, and their own populations, which are mostly opposed to the war and increasingly frustrated by the economic fallout from it.

美伊之间三个月的冲突导致欧洲领导人陷入了近乎两难的困境。他们夹在特朗普和本国公众之间——特朗普斥责他们未能支持这场战争，同时又贬低他们可能做出的贡献；本国民众大多反对这场战争，并对其引发的经济影响日益感到不满。

President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain pledged this week to quickly deploy military assets to help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz once it was clear the new cease-fire would hold.

法国总统马克龙和英国首相斯塔默本周承诺，一旦新停火协议明确得以维持，将迅速部署军事力量，协助船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。

“We do want to make sure that where we’ve got capability — and demining is an obvious example — where we’re coordinating that we agree a way forward with the United States and others to get the Strait of Hormuz open as soon as possible,” Mr. Starmer said.

“我们确实希望确保，在我们有能力发挥作用的领域——扫雷便是一个显而易见的例子，通过我们的协调，能够与美国及其他各方就未来的推进方案达成一致，尽快让霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航，”斯塔默说。

Mr. Macron, the host of the meeting, set the tone for catering to Mr. Trump, inviting him to dinner at Versailles, the palace of France’s kings, on Wednesday to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence.

作为峰会东道主，马克龙率先展示了对特朗普的礼遇。他邀请特朗普周三前往法国历代君王的宫殿凡尔赛宫共进晚宴，庆祝美国独立250周年。

It was a page out of the playbook he used during Mr. Trump’s first term, when he invited him to watch a military parade on the Champs-Élysées, a grand boulevard in central Paris. And the strategy worked again, with Mr. Trump — who has a well-advertised interest in buildings laden with gold — marveling at Versailles’s gilt-edged décor.

这是他在特朗普第一个任期时所用策略的翻版，当时他曾邀请特朗普在巴黎市中心的香榭丽舍大街观看阅兵式。这一策略再次奏效，向来对金碧辉煌的建筑兴趣浓厚的特朗普对凡尔赛宫金光闪闪的装饰赞叹不已。

“I was leaving in the afternoon and then the French president, who happens to be a very nice man, invited me to dinner at Versailles,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “Versailles is not a gold leaf. Versailles is the real deal.”

“我本来下午要离开了，结果法国总统——他确实是个很好的人——邀请我去凡尔赛宫共进晚餐，”特朗普对记者说，“凡尔赛宫可不是徒有其表。它是真正的杰作。”

However polite the exchanges between Mr. Trump and Europeans, there was little evidence they had changed the president’s views about getting involved in a settlement to end the war in Ukraine.

然而，无论特朗普与欧洲领导人之间的交流多么礼貌，几乎没有迹象表明，他们改变了特朗普关于介入解决乌克兰战争的态度。

Speaking to reporters, he reiterated his position that it is not America’s fight. “We have nothing to do with it, we sell weapons to them,” Mr. Trump said. “It has no impact on us, other than we sell weapons. We’re thousands of miles away.”

他在对记者讲话时重申了自己的立场，即那不是美国的战争。“我们与它无关，我们向他们出售武器，”特朗普说。“除了出售武器，对我们没有影响。我们在千里之外。”

There were more subtle signs that the personal rapport between Mr. Trump and European leaders had frayed. Mr. Trump did not hold a one-on-one meeting with Mr. Starmer, forcing the British prime minister to insist that he had not been snubbed.

还有一些更微妙的迹象显示，特朗普与欧洲领导人之间的私人关系已经出现裂痕。特朗普没有与斯塔默举行单独会晤，迫使这位英国首相不得不强调自己并没有受到冷落。

Mr. Trump did meet one on one with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar — Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — thanking them for their support on the Iran war, with a warmth that seemed absent from his encounters with the Europeans.

而特朗普分别与阿联酋总统穆罕默德和卡塔尔埃米尔塔米姆举行了一对一会谈，并感谢他们在伊朗战争问题上的支持。这种热情在他与欧洲领导人的互动中明显缺失。

特朗普率国务卿鲁比奥等美国官员与阿联酋总统穆罕默德举行会晤。

When Sheikh Mohamed offered barely audible thanks back to Mr. Trump, the president joked that only a man of the Emirati’s wealth could afford to speak in such a quiet voice, and command a room. He praised Sheikh Tamim for bravery and for Qatar’s billions of dollars of investment in the United States.

当穆罕默德几乎听不见地轻声回谢特朗普时，总统打趣说，只有阿联酋领导人这般富有的人才能如此轻声细语就掌控整个房间。他称赞塔米姆勇气可嘉，并对卡塔尔在美国的数十亿美元投资表示赞赏。

Mr. Trump spent much of the day defending his agreement with Iran, the details of which he has not yet released. He dismissed reports that the United States had agreed to invest $300 billion in Iran. “We are not investing any money,” Mr. Trump said. “We have no obligation to invest any money in Iran.”

特朗普当天的大部分时间都在捍卫为与伊朗达成的协议，尽管协议细节至今尚未公布。他否认有关美国将向伊朗投资3000亿美元的报道。“我们不会投资任何资金，”特朗普说，“我们没有任何义务向伊朗投资。”

The president added that the deal includes a pledge that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon — something it has long said publicly — and warned that the country would suffer “unbelievable consequences” if it pursued one.

特朗普还表示，协议包含伊朗永远不会拥有核武器的承诺——这也是伊朗长期以来公开宣称的立场——同时警告称，如果伊朗追求核武器，将面临“难以想象的后果”。

“That’s the reason I got in,” Mr. Trump said, “and that’s the reason I agreed to sign.”

“这是我介入的原因，”特朗普说，“也是我同意签署协议的原因。”

Corn sometimes gets a bad rap on the health front. (It gives us high-fructose corn syrup, after all.)

在健康方面，玉米有时名声不佳。（毕竟，它给我们带来了高果糖玉米糖浆。）

But sweet yellow corn has little in common with processed corn byproducts, said Dr. Ana Baylin, an associate professor of nutritional sciences at the University of Michigan. It’s a pretty healthy vegetable, whether it’s fresh off the cob in summer, or canned or frozen the rest of the year.

但密歇根大学营养科学副教授安娜·贝林博士表示，黄色甜玉米与加工过的玉米副产品几乎没有共同之处。它是一种非常健康的蔬菜，无论是夏天刚从玉米棒上掰下来的新鲜玉米，还是其他季节的罐装或冷冻玉米。

Here’s what nutrition experts had to say about sweet corn, and recipes from New York Times Cooking to help you enjoy it.

以下是营养专家对玉米的看法，以及《纽约时报》烹饪版帮助您享用玉米的食谱。

It promotes digestion.

它能促进消化

One cup of sweet corn contains about three grams of fiber. The bottom of the kernel and its outer shell are particularly high in insoluble fiber, said Dr. Rui Hai Liu, a professor of food science at Cornell University. Because your stomach and small intestine can’t break down insoluble fiber, it remains intact as it moves through your digestive system. This helps keep you regular.

一杯玉米含有约三克纤维。康奈尔大学食品科学教授刘瑞海（音）博士说，玉米粒底部和外壳的不可溶性膳食纤维含量特别高。由于胃和小肠无法分解不可溶性膳食纤维，它在穿过消化系统时会保持完整。这有助于保持规律排便。

“Insoluble fiber can help bulk the stool and ease constipation,” said Candice Schreiber, a clinical dietitian at the Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. It’s normal to see undigested kernels in stool if you happen to swallow a few without chewing them, she said. Even though our bodies don’t break down insoluble fiber, good bacteria in the colon — key players in a healthy gut microbiome — still feed on the undigested material.

“不可溶性膳食纤维可以帮助增加粪便体积，缓解便秘，”俄亥俄州立大学综合癌症中心的临床营养师坎迪斯·施莱伯说。她说，如果不经嚼碎就吞下几粒玉米，在粪便中看到未消化的玉米粒是正常的。尽管人体无法分解不可溶性膳食纤维，结肠中的有益细菌（健康肠道微生物群的关键成分）仍然会以这些未消化的物质为食。

Getting enough fiber may help lower your colon cancer risk, Ms. Schreiber said. And it’s been shown to reduce the risk of diabetes and coronary heart disease. While recommendations vary depending on age and sex, most people should try to eat at least 21 to 38 grams of fiber daily.

施莱伯说，摄入足够的膳食纤维可能有助于降低患结肠癌的风险。并且有证据表明它可以降低患糖尿病和冠心病的风险。虽然建议摄入量因年龄和性别而异，但大多数人每天应尽量摄入至少21到38克膳食纤维。

It’s a good source of energy.

它是良好的能量来源

When it’s harvested early on, while its kernels are still tender and juicy, corn is considered a starchy vegetable. (Corn used for popcorn, corn flour and cornflakes is harvested later, once its kernels dry out, and is considered a grain.)

当玉米在早期被收获、玉米粒还很鲜嫩多汁时，它被视为一种淀粉类蔬菜。（用于制作爆米花、玉米粉和玉米片的玉米是在后期收获的，玉米粒已经变干，被视为一种谷物。）

Starchy vegetables — think potatoes and peas, along with corn — generally contain more carbohydrates and calories than non-starchy vegetables like leafy greens, carrots and peppers, Ms. Schreiber said. One cup of corn has about 27 grams of carbohydrates and 125 calories.

施莱伯说，土豆、豌豆以及玉米等淀粉类蔬菜通常比绿叶蔬菜、胡萝卜和甜椒等非淀粉类蔬菜含有更多的碳水化合物和卡路里。一杯玉米含有约27克碳水化合物和125卡路里。

Dr. Baylin said that starchy vegetables can be a healthier source of carbs and calories than those coming from sugar or ultra-processed foods. What’s more, some of the starch in corn is resistant starch, which supports a healthy microbiome and helps your body regulate blood sugar.

贝林表示，与糖或超加工食品相比，淀粉类蔬菜是更健康的碳水化合物和卡路里来源。此外，玉米中的一些淀粉属于抗性淀粉，有助于维持健康的肠道菌群，并帮助身体调节血糖。

It contains a wide range of vitamins and minerals.

它含有多种维生素和矿物质

Experts said sweet corn doesn’t have especially high levels of any one vitamin or mineral. But taken together, corn’s micronutrients can help your body function and keep you healthy. For instance, Ms. Schreiber said corn contains respectable amounts of vitamins A and C, which promote bone and immune-system health. One cup of corn also contains 934 micrograms of lutein and zeaxanthin (less than peas, but more than carrots), which may support your eyesight.

专家表示，玉米中没有任何一种特定的维生素或矿物质含量特别高。但综合来看，玉米中的微量营养素可以帮助身体正常运作并保持健康。例如，施莱伯说，玉米含有数量可观的维生素A和维生素C，能够促进骨骼和免疫系统的健康。一杯玉米还含有 934微克的叶黄素和玉米黄质（低于豌豆，但高于胡萝卜），这可能有助于保护视力。

Corn is also a good source of the heart-healthy mineral magnesium, Dr. Liu said. Studies suggest that people who don’t get enough magnesium could be at greater risk of developing heart disease.

刘瑞海说，玉米也是有益心脏健康的矿物质镁的良好来源。研究表明，镁摄入不足者患心脏病的风险可能更高。

Here’s how to enjoy it.

如何享用

The experts said that fresh, frozen and canned corn all have the same nutritional benefits. If you opt for canned, Ms. Schreiber recommended choosing a no- or low-sodium variety. Rinsing canned corn with water can also help remove some sodium.

专家表示，新鲜、冷冻和罐装玉米都具有相同的营养益处。如果选择罐装玉米，施莱伯建议选择无钠或低钠的产品。用水冲洗罐装玉米也有助于去除部分钠。

With fresh corn, Dr. Baylin said she herself wouldn’t worry too much about buying organic, since the kernels are shielded beneath a thick husk as they grow.

对于新鲜玉米，贝林博表示，她自己不会太在意是否购买有机产品，因为玉米粒在生长过程中被厚厚的玉米皮保护在下面。

Steaming or grilling corn — as opposed to boiling it — can help ensure its kernels retain micronutrients, Ms. Schreiber said; boiling can cause vegetables to lose some vitamins, such as vitamin C.

施莱伯说，与水煮玉米相比，蒸玉米或烤玉米有助于确保玉米粒保留微量营养素；水煮会导致蔬菜流失部分维生素，例如维生素C。

And when a simple ear isn’t enough, try these recipes from NYT Cooking.

如果单吃一根玉米还不够，不妨尝试一下《纽约时报》烹饪版的食谱。

1. Oven-Roasted Corn on the Cob

1. 烤箱烤玉米棒

Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Why choose between the tenderness of steamed corn and the char of grilled corn when you can get both in the oven? Garlicky parsley butter infuses the ears with richness.

Beijing has long built walls between Chinese citizens and the outside world: The Great Firewall blocks out information, and passport controls and exit bans restrict movement. But money had been different.

北京长期以来在中国公民与外部世界之间筑起高墙：“防火墙”阻断信息，护照管控和出境禁令限制人员流动。但资金流动曾经是个例外。

In an unspoken bargain between the government and its people, political limits could be tolerated as long as families were largely free to accumulate, protect and quietly diversify their wealth.

政府与民众之间曾经有着心照不宣的默契，只要普通家庭在很大程度上能够自由地积累和保护财富，并且悄悄实现财富的多元化配置，政治上的限制就是可以容忍的。

That bargain is fraying.

这种默契正在瓦解。

Over the last couple of years, Chinese citizens have increasingly invested in overseas securities, and especially in the U.S. stock market. But in recent weeks, Beijing has moved to close informal channels between Chinese households and global capital markets. It gave several Hong Kong and Singaporean-based brokerages with significant mainland clientele two years to wind down those accounts. It expanded rules on overseas investment to explicitly cover individuals for the first time, threatening to confiscate vaguely defined “illegal gains.”

过去几年里，中国公民越来越多地投资海外证券，尤其是美国股市。但在最近几周，北京采取行动，切断了中国家庭与全球资本市场之间的非正式渠道。当局要求几家拥有大量大陆客户的香港和新加坡券商在两年内逐步结清这些账户。政府还扩大了海外投资规定的适用范围，首次明确涵盖个人投资者，并威胁要没收定义模糊的“非法所得”。

In Hong Kong, long a gateway to overseas investing for mainland residents, banks and brokerages have tightened requirements for opening an account. Some brokerages told their mainland clients that the clients could sell U.S. stocks but not buy them. The Chinese social media app known as RedNote announced that it had cracked down on posts teaching people how to open U.S. stock trading accounts.

香港长期以来一直是大陆居民进行海外投资的门户，如今这里的银行和券商也收紧了开户要求。一些券商告诉他们的大陆客户，只能卖出美股，不能买入。中国社交媒体应用小红书宣布，已经严厉打击教人们如何开设美股交易账户的帖子。

Beijing is pulling every available lever to mobilize the nation’s private wealth as a resource for its state-led drive toward technological self-reliance and national rejuvenation. In a major speech published in January, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, argued that financial latitude must be subordinated to national security, warning that China must guard against not only the risks of opening up but also risks that are “deliberately engineered” by geopolitical adversaries.

北京正动用一切可能的杠杆，调动全国的私人财富作为资源，推动国家主导的科技自立和民族复兴进程。在今年1月发表的一篇重要讲话中，中国领导人习近平指出，金融自由度必须服从于国家安全，他警告说，中国不仅要防范对外开放的风险，还要防范地缘政治对手“蓄意制造”的风险。

Geopolitical considerations are shrinking opportunity for Chinese investors in other ways. Amid the intense rivalry between the United States and China, SpaceX excluded Chinese investors from its history-breaking initial public offering last week. At the same time, Beijing is erecting its financial walls precisely when ordinary Chinese have the most reason to look outward for more lucrative places to put their savings.

地缘政治考量还在以其他方式不断压缩中国投资者的机会。在中美竞争日益激烈的大背景下，SpaceX在上周创纪录的首次公开募股中将中国投资者排除在外。与此同时，就在中国普通民众最有理由将目光投向海外、为自己的储蓄寻找更丰厚回报之际，北京却在筑起金融高墙。

In the United States, stocks and bonds are the default investments for long-term savings. But retail investors in China tend to shy away from the country’s stock exchanges, known as the A-shares market, viewing it less as a vehicle for building household wealth than as a speculative arena swayed by policy, rumor and sudden state intervention. The market has many nicknames, including “the meat grinder.”

在美国，股票和债券是长期储蓄的默认投资方式。但中国的散户投资者往往对国内的证券交易所（即A股市场）敬而远之。在他们看来，A股与其说是积累家庭财富的工具，不如说是一个受政策、谣言和政府突然干预影响的投机角斗场。这个市场有许多绰号，诸如“绞肉机”。

Instead, for two decades, middle-class families invested in real estate. The housing market was booming, and people bought apartments not just to live in but as retirement plans, college funds and assets for their children. Nearly one-third of urban households owned two apartments, and more than 10 percent owned three or more apartments, according to a 2020 survey by China’s central bank.

取而代之的是，过去20年里，中产阶级家庭将资金投入房地产。随着房地产市场的繁荣，人们买房不仅是为了居住，更是为了养老、筹集子女大学学费，以及为子女积累资产。根据中国央行2020年的一项调查，近三分之一的城镇家庭拥有两套住房，超过10%的家庭拥有三套或以上住房。

After the housing market collapsed in 2021, however, many people lost faith in the asset that had underpinned their sense of security. Already big savers because of the country’s spare social safety net, Chinese people retreated into defensive savings. By the end of 2025, China’s household bank deposits had reached the equivalent of $24.4 trillion, nearly tripling over a decade.

然而，在2021年房地产市场崩盘后，许多人对这种曾经支撑家庭安全感的资产失去了信心。由于国内社会保障体系较为薄弱，中国人本来就热衷于储蓄，如今更是退缩到防御性储蓄之中。到2025年底，中国家庭的银行存款已达到150万亿元以上，几乎达到10年前的三倍。

But that money is earning diminishing returns. Three-quarters of household savings are in fixed-term deposits. But those rates have fallen to around 1 percent, while high-yield savings accounts in the United States offer up to around 4 percent.

但这笔资金的回报率却在不断下降。四分之三的家庭储蓄以定期存款的形式存在。但其存款的利率已经降至1%左右，而美国的高收益储蓄账户提供的利率最高可达4%左右。

2024年的上海公寓楼群，此时距离中国房地产市场崩盘已过去三年。

At the same time, the U.S. stock market kept going up. For financially sophisticated members of the Chinese middle class, overseas markets became a hedge against China’s economic slowdown, political uncertainty and weakening domestic returns.

与此同时，美国股市持续上涨。对于具备金融知识的中国中产阶级而言，海外市场成为了对冲中国经济放缓、政治不确定性以及国内收益疲软的工具。

The Institute of International Finance, a trade association based in Washington, estimated that resident capital outflows from China reached $809 billion in 2025, the highest level on record.

总部位于华盛顿的行业协会国际金融协会估计，2025年中国居民资本外流达到8090亿美元，创下历史最高纪录。

In 2025, Hong Kong overtook Switzerland as the world’s largest cross-border wealth management hub, partly driven by money coming from mainland China, according to Boston Consulting Group.

据波士顿咨询公司的数据，2025年，香港超越瑞士成为全球最大的跨境财富管理中心，这部分得益于来自中国内地的资金流入。

But Beijing increasingly sees this outflow of Chinese wealth as unpatriotic. Hu Xijin, a former editor in chief of the nationalist tabloid Global Times and one of China’s most prominent pro-government commentators, argued on the Weibo social media platform that the government’s latest moves served “the overall interests of Chinese society.”

但北京日益将这种中国财富外流视为不爱国行为。民族主义小报《环球时报》前总编辑、中国最知名的亲政府评论员之一胡锡进在社交媒体平台微博上辩称，政府的最新举措符合“中国全社会的整体利益”。

“If stock investors buy more A-shares and fewer U.S. stocks, or if some people refrain from hastily selling their homes in China to buy property in the West, the overall effect would be positive,” he wrote.

“股民们多买A股，少买美股；一些人不要轻易把国内房子卖了，去西方购置房产。这样的效果总体上是积极的，”他写道。

Keeping savings at home and interest rates low is vital to Beijing. The country’s hugely indebted local governments have been restructuring their debts, relying on cheap domestic capital to ease interest burdens that consume roughly a fifth of their revenue. The savings are also backing China’s enormous investment in infrastructure, robotics, semiconductors and other industries deemed key to self-reliance and national security.

将储蓄留在国内并保持低利率对北京至关重要。中国负债累累的地方政府一直在重组债务，依赖廉价的国内资本来缓解消耗约占其收入五分之一的利息负担。这些储蓄还支撑着中国在基础设施、机器人、半导体以及其他被视为对自给自足和国家安全关键产业上的巨额投资。

But that is not where sophisticated investors want to be. A technology worker who asked to be identified only by his last name, Xu, for fear of government retribution, has put as much money as China’s law allows into an American brokerage account since 2023.

但精明的投资者并不想把钱投在这些地方。一位由于担心政府报复而要求只透露其姓氏为许（音）的科技工作者表示，自2023年以来，他已将中国法律允许的最高限额资金存入了一个美国证券账户。

Now all of the difficulties created by Beijing’s financial control leave Mr. Xu wondering, “Is my money still mine?”

如今，北京的金融管控所造成的所有困难让许先生不禁心生疑问：“我的钱还是我的吗？”

Currently, Chinese citizens can legally convert their renminbi savings to $50,000 in foreign currency. Officially, that money can be used only for things like tourism or education, but using the quota for overseas investment in stocks or property has long been a tolerated gray zone.

目前，中国公民每年可以合法地将储蓄兑换成5万美元的外汇。官方规定，这些钱只能用于旅游或教育等方面，但利用这一额度投资海外股票或房地产长期以来一直是一个被容忍的灰色地带。

For now, the quota remains the only legitimate opening for individuals to move money abroad. But there have been reports that banks are asking more questions about the use of the money, and people are worried that converting renminbi could become more difficult.

就目前而言，这一额度仍是个人将资金转移到海外的唯一合法通道。但有报道称，银行对资金用途的询问日益严格，人们担心兑换人民币可能会变得更加困难。

“So many people in the world can trade the U.S. stocks. Why can’t the Chinese?” Mr. Xu asked.

“世界上这么多人都能交易美股。为什么中国人不行？”许先生问道。

He is frustrated that SpaceX has excluded investors in China from participating in its I.P.O., the biggest in history. OpenAI and other potentially lucrative artificial intelligence companies may follow suit.

SpaceX在其史上规模最大的IPO中排除了中国投资者，这让他感到沮丧。OpenAI以及其他具有潜在丰厚利润的人工智能公司也可能会效仿。 

Others are now trying to slip under the wire and move their money abroad before the government blocks the passage completely.

其他人现在正试图抓住最后的机会，在政府彻底封锁通道之前将资金转移到海外。 

In the past two weeks, investors feverishly traded workaround tips on social media and in group chats. Some flocked to Hong Kong to open bank and brokerage accounts at smaller firms with looser requirements. Others explored options to visit the United States and open accounts in person.

在过去的两周里，投资者在社交媒体和群聊中狂热地交流着各种规避限制的技巧。一些人蜂拥至香港，在要求较为宽松的较小机构开设银行和券商账户。另一些人则在探索亲自前往美国开户的可行性。

“No amount of financial controls can prevent people from moving their assets to places that offer better opportunities,” said Stephen, an I.T. worker in Guangdong Province who also asked to be identified by only one name.

 “再严密的金融管控也无法阻止人们将资产转移到能提供更好机会的地方，”广东省一名只愿透露英文名为史蒂芬的IT工作者说。

The framework deal between the United States and Iran sets the stage for an end to the bursts of violence and debilitating disruption of energy deliveries and trade in the Persian Gulf. But don’t expect economies around the globe to simply pick up where they left off before the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28.

美国与伊朗达成的框架协议为结束波斯湾地区时断时续的暴力冲突以及严重扰乱能源运输和贸易的局面铺平了道路。但不要指望全球经济能够轻易回到2月28日美国和以色列开始轰炸伊朗之前的状态。

The war has set in motion changes that will be hard to reverse.

这场战争已经引发了一系列难以逆转的变化。

The global energy order is being reshaped.

全球能源秩序正在重塑。

The near shutdown in oil and gas deliveries from the Middle East and the leap in prices are causing a shift in power. Energy producers from the Gulf to the Americas are jockeying to maintain or increase their dominance, and customers are struggling to reduce their dependency and shore up their supply.

中东石油和天然气供应的几近中断以及价格飙升正在导致权力格局发生变化。从海湾地区到美洲的能源生产国都在竞相维持或扩大各自的主导地位，而消费国则努力减少依赖、保障供应。

As a result, the energy market is changing, the energy mix is changing and the energy players are changing.

结果是，能源市场在变，能源结构在变，能源版图中的主导者也在变。

The profound vulnerability of countries throughout Asia, Europe and elsewhere that depend on imported energy is supercharging the hunt for alternatives. In some places, like South Korea and Japan, that has led to an increased use of dirtier fuels like coal.

亚洲、欧洲以及其他依赖进口能源的国家所暴露出的深层脆弱性正在极大地推动它们寻找替代能源。韩国、日本等国已重新加大对煤炭等污染更严重的燃料的使用。

But over the longer term, this energy shock — the second in just four years — is likely to accelerate a transition to renewables like solar and wind as well as nuclear power.

但从长远来看，这场能源冲击——四年内的第二次——可能会加速向太阳能、风能等可再生能源以及核能的转型。

以色列空袭提尔一家医院附近，救援人员搜寻伤亡人员。

Improvements in electric battery technology and efficiency make the shift more feasible than it was when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted a global energy shock in 2022, said Daan Walter at Ember, an energy research group in London.

伦敦能源研究机构Ember的达安·沃尔特表示，电池技术和能效的进步使得这种转型比2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发全球能源冲击时更具可行性。

In many places, for instance, electric vehicles are increasingly affordable. And in April, wind and solar generated more electricity globally than gas for the first time.

例如，在许多地方，电动车正变得越来越便宜。今年4月，全球风能和太阳能发电量首次超过天然气。

“This is a big turnaround,” Mr. Walter said. “So what was five years ago maybe barely competitive, now is almost already clearly cheaper.”

“这是一个巨大的转折，”沃尔特说。“五年前或许还只是勉强具备竞争力的技术，现在已经明显更便宜了。”

Investments in renewables have also become a better bet, promising returns in closer to two years instead of 30, he said.

他说，对可再生能源的投资如今也变得更有吸引力，投资回报周期已从过去接近30年缩短至约两年。

Relations among producers are also changing. The war heightened tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and prompted the Emirates to leave the OPEC Plus oil cartel. The impact of that departure will be fully felt only when oil production in the region picks up. But a weakened Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could add to volatility in oil markets.

生产国之间的关系同样在发生变化。这场战争加剧了阿联酋与沙特阿拉伯之间的紧张关系，促使阿联酋退出了“欧佩克+”这个产油国联盟。这一退出的全面影响要等到该地区石油产量回升后才会充分显现。但一个遭到削弱的石油输出国组织可能会加剧全球油市的波动性。

The split has also encouraged the Saudis to move closer to Russia. Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, featured Saudi Arabia this month as the “guest of honor” at an economic forum in St. Petersburg.

这一分裂也促使沙特与俄罗斯走得更近。本月，俄罗斯总统普京将沙特阿拉伯列为圣彼得堡一个经济论坛的“贵宾”。

Russia, the second-largest producer of crude oil and gas after the United States, has been strengthened in other ways by the war. The Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions imposed on Russia, allowing Moscow to pump up profits from its oil exports when its economy is ailing.

作为仅次于美国的全球第二大原油和天然气生产国，俄罗斯也从这场战争中获得了其他方面的好处。特朗普政府暂时放松了对俄罗斯的制裁，使得莫斯科在其经济低迷之际能够从石油出口中获取更多利润。

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina and Guyana are building their oil production capacity as the world looks for alternative suppliers.

在大西洋的另一边，巴西、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚、阿根廷和圭亚那都在扩大石油生产能力，以满足全球寻找替代供应国的需求。

中国盐城的风力涡轮机部件。中国企业在现代电网几乎所有部件的制造中占据主导地位。

China is a major beneficiary.

中国是主要受益者。

The push to build out and diversify energy networks is going to continue long after the war ends. And China is poised to benefit most from the expected boon in renewables.

战争结束后，建设能源网络和实现供应多元化的努力仍将持续很长时间。而在预期中的可再生能源红利浪潮中，中国有望成为最大的受益者。

It is leagues ahead of the rest of the world in producing wind turbines, high-voltage cables, transformers, solar panels, batteries, software to manage energy flows and more.

在风力涡轮机、高压电缆、变压器、太阳能板、电池，以及能源管理软件等领域，中国遥遥领先于世界其他国家。

China’s increasing role ensuring that other countries have a dependable supply of energy amplifies its strategic influence and importance.

中国在保障其他国家获得可靠能源供应方面所扮演的角色日益重要，这进一步增强了它的战略影响力和重要性。

“China looks to be an out-and-out winner,” analysts from Wood Mackenzie, a global energy consulting firm, concluded.

“中国看起来将是全面赢家，”全球能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹的分析师总结道。

Re-establishing trust will be difficult.

重建信任将殊为不易。

It is unclear whether shipping traffic will ever again be able to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz — the only sea route for moving oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persian Gulf.

目前尚不清楚航运是否还能像过去那样自由通过霍尔木兹海峡——这是波斯湾石油、天然气及其他货物运往外部世界的唯一海上通道。

停泊在霍尔木兹海峡的船只，摄于上周。

Iran has pushed to impose fees on ships that pass through the narrow waterway, even though such a plan could violate international agreements. Even if new payments are not codified, Iran has shown it can disrupt trade any time it wants, which raises risks and costs.

伊朗一直试图向通过这条狭窄水道的船只征收费用，尽管这一做法可能违反国际协议。即便最终没有实施收费制度，伊朗也已经证明，它可以在任何时候干扰贸易活动，从而提高航运风险和成本。

“I think the strait is never going to go back to the certainty of free passage that we’ve been used to,” said Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

国际货币基金组织前首席经济学家莫里斯·奥布斯特费尔德表示：“我认为这条海峡再也无法回到我们过去习惯的那种确定性的自由通行状态了。”

Similarly, the trust in the region’s peace, stability and growing prosperity has also been shaken.

同样，对该地区和平、稳定和持续繁荣的信心也遭到动摇。

“The dynamism of the Gulf economies may be impaired by the vulnerability they showed,” Mr. Obstfeld said, and that “raises Iran’s leverage in the region.”

“海湾经济体的活力可能会因其暴露出的脆弱性而受损，”奥布斯特菲尔德说，这“提高了伊朗在该地区的筹码”。

The economy has been kicked onto a path of slower growth and higher prices.

全球经济已被推上增速放缓、物价高企的轨道。

When economists at the World Bank began sifting through data early this year, they were pleasantly surprised. “We were starting to think about upgrading our forecasts, between January and February, because things were looking so good,” said Indermit Gill, the bank’s chief economist. “Inflation was coming down, growth was picking up, trade had kind of taken it on the chin and was still standing.”

今年年初，当世界银行的经济学家开始梳理数据时，他们一度感到惊喜。“1、2月间，我们甚至开始考虑上调增长预测，因为当时情况看起来相当不错，”该行首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔说。“通胀正在下降，经济增长正在回升，而贸易虽然受到重击，却依然站得住脚。”

No more. The bank just revised its economic outlook, lowering its forecast. It now expects global growth to decline to 2.5 percent this year from 2.9 percent in 2025.

如今已是另一番景象。世界银行刚刚下调了经济展望，预计全球经济增速将从2025年的2.9%降至今年的2.5%。

Inflation is also starting to roar. In the United States, it rose for the third month in row, hitting an annual rate of 4.2 percent in May. And instead of planning for the next drop in interest rates, Wall Street is expecting the Federal Reserve to increase rates at least once this year. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates to 2.25 percent. “The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures,” the bank said.

通胀也开始抬头。在美国，通胀连续第三个月上升，5月份年化通胀率达到4.2%。华尔街不再预期美联储下一步降息，转而预计今年至少加息一次。上周，欧洲央行将利率提高至2.25%，并称“中东战争正在产生通胀压力”。

Higher rates have serious longer-term effects on both rich and poor countries that have already run up staggering public debts and are using a growing portion of revenue just to pay interest costs.

对于那些已经背负巨额公共债务，并且越来越多财政收入只能用于支付利息的国家而言，无论是富国还是穷国，更高的利率都会带来严重的长期后果。

Those budgetary pressures are only going to increase as governments offer assistance to households struggling with higher energy prices and increase military budgets to cope with growing security threats.

随着各国政府向承受高能源价格压力的家庭提供援助，并增加军费预算以应对不断上升的安全威胁，这种财政压力只会进一步加剧。

Asian economies, slapped hardest by the crisis, have already inundated the Asian Development Bank for emergency loans as they seek to rescue their economies and finances from the impact of the Iran war.

受危机冲击最严重的亚洲经济体已经纷纷向亚洲开发银行申请紧急贷款，希望减轻伊朗战争对本国经济和财政造成的影响。

随着通胀上升、各国央行维持高利率，家庭正面临新一轮生活成本压力。

“The world economy is going to end up being more jittery,” Mr. Gill said. And that is not good for long-term planning, investment or growth.

“世界经济将变得更加动荡不安，”吉尔说。这对长期规划、投资和增长都不是好事。

At Taiwan’s biggest computing show this month, Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, was mobbed as if he were a rock star, trailed by a crowd from booth to booth as he signed autographs and posed for selfies.

在本月台湾最大的电脑展上，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋仿佛摇滚明星一般被粉丝团团围住，从一个展台走到另一个展台，身后跟着一大群人签名、合影。

At the stand of SK Hynix, one of his most important South Korean suppliers, Mr. Huang picked up a marker and left a message. Atop a reflective wafer of memory — a component of Nvidia’s A.I. supercomputers now in short supply — he wrote: “Please make more :).”

在其最重要的韩国供应商SK海力士展台，黄仁勋拿起马克笔留言。在一片反光的内存晶圆上——这种用于英伟达人工智能超级计算机的元件目前供应不足——他写道：“请多生产一些 :)。”

It was only half a joke. As tech giants pour hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers across the world, demand for the chips, wiring and power systems that run artificial intelligence is racing ahead of supply.

这个玩笑还有另外一半没写上。随着科技巨头向全球数据中心投入数千亿美元，运行人工智能所需的芯片、布线和电力系统需求正远远超过供给。

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable publicly traded company because of this spending boom. Now the bonanza is lifting a constellation of less famous semiconductor companies — among them many Asian firms few Americans have heard of — that make the essential, unglamorous parts of the data centers being built across the globe.

英伟达正是凭借这一支出热潮成为全球市值最高上市公司。如今，这场盛宴也带动了一批知名度较低的半导体公司——其中许多是美国人闻所未闻的亚洲企业——它们生产着全球各地新建数据中心中必不可少但不那么光鲜的部件。

“This was a boring industry that no one cared about, but now it’s become the most critical infrastructure for the world,” said Timothy Arcuri, a semiconductor analyst at UBS. “They’re basically putting down the tracks, and there will be all this commerce on those tracks for years.”

“这个行业以前很无聊，没人关心，现在却成了世界上最重要的基础设施，”瑞银半导体分析师蒂莫西·阿库里表示。“它们基本上是在铺设铁轨，未来多年这条轨道上将承载大量活动。”

The gold rush is redrawing the map of technological power. Chips are the brains of A.I. systems that process huge amounts of information. They also need memory technology that holds the information the systems are thinking about. In recent years, A.I. models have grown so vast that holding the information has become as valuable as processing it.

这场淘金热正在重绘技术力量版图。芯片是人工智能系统处理海量信息的大脑，它们还需要存储系统“思考”时所需信息的内存技术。近年来，人工智能模型规模变得极为庞大，以至于存储信息变得与处理信息同样重要。

The most advanced memory comes, overwhelmingly, from South Korea and Taiwan, and soaring prices caused by supply limitations are piling new wealth into the two Asian democracies.

最先进的内存技术绝大多数来自韩国和台湾，供应限制导致的价格飙升正为这两个亚洲民主体注入新的财富。

A decade ago, memory was a cheap commodity, priced in brutal cycles at the whim of larger tech firms. This year, prices have more than doubled. At the high end, just three companies make it: South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung and the American company Micron, whose most advanced factories are in Taiwan.

十年前，内存还是廉价商品，受大型科技公司摆布，价格剧烈波动。今年，内存价格已经翻了一倍以上。在高端领域，只有三家公司生产：韩国的SK海力士、三星，以及美国美光公司，其最先进工厂位于台湾。

None of them are Chinese. Despite years of spending, Beijing has been locked out of much of the supply chain for advanced A.I. servers. For Washington, it is an accidental triumph: Subsidies meant to pull manufacturing from China achieved less than the boom has, almost overnight.

它们中没有一家是中国企业。尽管投入多年，北京仍被挡在先进人工智能服务器供应链的大门外。对华盛顿而言，这是一场意外的胜利：旨在将制造业从中国拉走的补贴，远不如这场热潮在一夜之间实现的成效大。

The success comes with a catch. Much of the technology is designed in the United States, but the supply chain still runs through Taiwan and South Korea, neighbors of China and North Korea where U.S. officials have long feared tensions could erupt.

这一成功也伴随着风险。这些技术大多在美国设计，但供应链仍要经过台湾和韩国——这两个地方毗邻中国和朝鲜，美国官员长期以来一直担心紧张局势可能爆发。

South Korea’s stock market has roughly doubled in 2026, the best performance of any major market. Taiwan’s has set records of its own. Samsung and SK Hynix made South Korea the first country other than the United States with more than one company to top $1 trillion in market value at once. Micron joined the trillion-dollar club as well.

2026年韩国股市涨幅约翻倍，是各大主要市场中表现最好的。台湾股市也屡创纪录。三星和SK海力士让韩国成为美国以外第一个同时拥有两家市值超1万亿美元公司的国家。美光也加入了万亿美元俱乐部。

The evidence of the boom was everywhere at Computex, the Taipei trade show, which is an industry fixture devoted to deeply technical wares: data-center plumbing, voltage converters and memory products with names like HBM4E and SOCAMM2.

在台北举行的Computex展会上，到处都能看到这场繁荣的证据。这是一个专注于深度技术产品的行业盛会：数据中心排线、电压转换器，以及名为HBM4E和SOCAMM2的内存产品。

This year, there was even a little dazzle in the air. Strikingly international crowds gathered around exposed cooling pipes and lingered over bare silicon wafers in glass cases. At Nvidia’s stand, a lone server rack revolved on a plinth. Onlookers stopped to take selfies with the box.

今年，现场甚至带有一丝炫目感。来自世界各地的观众聚集在裸露的冷却管道旁，在玻璃柜中裸露的硅晶圆前驻足。在英伟达展台，一个单独的服务器机柜在底座上旋转，围观者停下来与它自拍合影。

At the SK Hynix booth, where Mr. Huang signed the wafer, an engineer named Vincent Wang said he had never seen the rally coming. A veteran of leaner years — when a crash in the memory market gutted Taiwan’s chip industry and nearly forced a government rescue — he did not even own shares in his own company.

在黄仁勋签名的SK海力士展台，一位名叫文森特·王（音）的工程师说，他从未预料到这场热潮。他经历过没那么风光的岁月——当时内存市场崩盘重创台湾芯片业，几乎迫使政府出手救助——他甚至没有持有自己公司的股票。

黄仁勋在Computex上签名的内存晶圆。

To Mr. Huang’s plea to make more, Mr. Wang had a counteroffer: “Please pay more.”

对于黄仁勋“请多生产”的请求，王先生的回应是：“请多付钱。”

In South Korea, where chip workers at Samsung and SK Hynix are collecting profit-linked bonuses, reports of lavish employee spending have filled the local news. Chip workers have set off a buying spree in exotic cars. Speculators are chasing apartments along the commuter-shuttle routes that serve the two chip makers. One matchmaking service raised its “spouse index” for Samsung employees, ranking them at the lofty heights of lawyers and doctors.

在韩国，三星和SK海力士的芯片员工正在领取与利润挂钩的奖金，当地新闻充斥着员工大手笔消费的报道。芯片从业者掀起了一股豪车购买热潮。投机者追逐着通勤班车沿线的公寓。一家婚介服务机构提高了三星员工的“配偶指数”，将其排在律师和医生之列。

At Micron, which spent years buying up pieces of Taiwan’s memory industry, the good times are also rolling. In its home city, Boise, Idaho, it is building a 43,200-square-foot hangar for its corporate jets, with office space, a kitchen and a bay marked “executive parking.” It is part of a multibillion-dollar expansion in the state, among the largest private investments in Idaho’s history.

多年来一直在收购台湾内存产业资产的美光公司如今也过得不错。在其总部爱达荷州博伊西市，公司正在为其公务机队建造一座4.32万平方英尺（约合4015平方米）的机库，内设办公室、厨房和标有“高管泊位”的区域。这是该州历史上最大的私人投资之一，属于其数十亿美元扩张计划的一部分。

Samsung did not respond to emailed questions. Micron declined to comment. SK Hynix said it was accelerating construction of its chip-making factories and increasing production to meet demand.

三星未回复邮件提问。美光拒绝置评。SK海力士表示正在加快芯片工厂建设并增加产量以满足需求。

SK海力士母公司SK集团董事长崔泰源在Computex展会上露面。

Mr. Huang has become the industry’s kingmaker. Last year, Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel, the struggling Silicon Valley chip maker, and committed to developing chips with it. Intel’s shares have risen nearly fourfold since.

黄仁勋已成为行业造王者。去年，英伟达向陷入困境的硅谷芯片制造商英特尔投资50亿美元，并承诺与其共同开发芯片。此后英特尔股价已上涨近四倍。

“Everyone has a smile on their face right now,” said Frank Seifert, an executive at Adata, a Taiwanese memory company. He had followed Mr. Huang’s keynote address at Computex like thousands of industry fans. When Mr. Huang praised a partner, the chip design firm Marvell, and said it would be the next trillion-dollar company, Mr. Seifert bought the stock. It rose more than 25 percent that day.

“现在每个人脸上都挂着笑容，”台湾内存公司威刚科技高管弗兰克·赛弗特说。他和成千上万行业粉丝一起听了黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲。当黄仁勋称赞合作伙伴芯片设计公司Marvell，并表示它将成为下一家万亿美元公司时，赛弗特买入了该公司的股票。当天股价上涨超过25%。

The opportunities are lifting a new generation of start-ups in both Asia and the United States. A decade ago, venture capitalists didn’t want to touch chip companies, said Aaron Jacobson, a partner at NEA, a venture capital firm. They required huge investments to prove their technology worked, and their customers were tech giants that demanded low prices. Now the market is bigger and the customers are everywhere.

这些机会正在亚洲和美国催生新一代初创企业。风险投资公司NEA合伙人亚伦·雅各布森表示，十年前风险投资人不愿碰芯片公司，因为它们需要巨额投资来证明技术可行，而且它们的客户是会压价的科技巨头。现在市场更大，客户遍地都是。

“If you look at what’s happening in the A.I. data center, there are so many roadblocks and things that need to be reinvented,” Mr. Jacobson said.

“看看人工智能数据中心正在发生的事情，有太多瓶颈和需要重新发明的东西，”雅各布森说。

The moment is an inversion of the last great hardware boom. Twenty years ago, the smartphone turned China into the world’s factory floor. The United States, betting that commerce would bind the two countries and keep the peace, was content to let it happen. That seeded the manufacturing base that helped make China a rival.

这一刻与上一次硬件大繁荣形成了反转。二十年前，智能手机让中国成为世界工厂。美国当时认为商业会把两国绑在一起并维持和平，因此对此乐见其成。由此建立起的制造业基础帮助中国成为一个对手。

This time, China is conspicuously absent. U.S. tariffs and technology restrictions have frozen Beijing out of a big part of the A.I. frenzy.

这一次，中国明显缺席。美国关税和技术限制已将北京隔绝在人工智能热潮的大部分领域之外。

The South Korean and Taiwanese companies that once helped build that industry in China — through joint ventures, chip factories on the mainland and engineers lured away — are now harvesting a boom all their own. And the windfall extends beyond chips, into the racks, power systems and cooling that surround them.

那些曾经通过合资企业、在大陆建厂和挖角工程师帮助中国建立芯片业的韩国和台湾公司，如今正在收获属于自己的繁荣。这场意外之财还延伸到机架、电力系统和冷却设备等领域。

举办Computex的展览中心。

Foxconn and Quanta, which became huge by assembling smartphones and laptops, now build A.I. servers in Mexico, Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Once-boring firms like Delta Electronics, which made its fortune on power supplies and cooling fans, are growing fast on the power converters and liquid cooling that A.I. data centers demand.

曾通过组装智能手机和笔记本电脑成长为巨头的鸿海和广达，如今在墨西哥、东南亚和台湾生产人工智能服务器。过去不起眼的公司如台达电子（靠电源和散热风扇起家），如今正凭借人工智能数据中心所需的电源转换器和液冷技术快速增长。

In Taiwan, where past boom-and-bust cycles bankrupted companies and rattled the economy, many remain wary. They were reminded of the risks last week when chip stocks tumbled on worries that the A.I. rally may fall short of Wall Street’s sky-high expectations.

在台湾，过去多次繁荣-萧条周期曾导致公司破产、经济动荡，许多人仍保持警惕。上周芯片股因担心人工智能热潮可能达不到华尔街过高预期而下跌，再次提醒了他们风险所在。

But it has not stopped engineers from piling in. Smartphones beaming stock charts have become an ever more common sight around Taipei — in gyms, doctors offices and cabs.

但这并未阻止工程师们涌入。在台北的健身房、诊所和出租车上，用手机刷着股市行情的景象越来越常见。

The wafer that Mr. Huang signed will probably end up framed on a wall at SK Hynix’s headquarters in South Korea, Mr. Wang said.

王先生说，黄仁勋签名的那片晶圆很可能最终会被装裱，陈列在SK海力士位于韩国的总部墙上。

Whether it reads, in time, as a souvenir of a historic boom or a relic of a bubble, it already marks something larger: the arrival of a nearly China-free supply chain for the world’s most advanced A.I., built on two of the most contentious locations on the map.

无论最终会被视为一场历史性繁荣的纪念品，还是泡沫的遗物，它都标志着一个更大的背景：在全球最先进人工智能的供应链中，一个几乎没有中国的版本已经到来，而它建立在地图上两个最具争议的地点之上。

China’s consumer spending slowdown deepened in May as retail sales unexpectedly fell from a year earlier, in the latest sign that the country’s housing market crash has left millions of families reluctant to spend.

中国消费者支出放缓在5月份进一步加剧，零售额较上年同期意外下降，这是其房地产市场崩盘导致数百万家庭不愿消费的最新迹象。

Retail sales dropped 0.6 percent in May from the same month a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. It was the first year-over-year decline since December 2022, when a wave of coronavirus infections swept the country and kept consumers at home after Beijing abruptly dismantled its stringent “Covid zero” restrictions.

国家统计局周二公布的数据显示，5月份零售额较上年同期下降0.6%。这是自2022年12月以来的首次同比下降，当时北京突然取消严格的“清零”政策，新冠病毒感染潮随即席卷全国，消费者被困家中。

Last month’s decline was a surprise because higher energy costs were expected to help lift retail sales. Gasoline sales, which are included in the retail sales figures, have risen as fuel costs increased following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the retail sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Yet retail sales still fell. After accounting for rising consumer prices, the decline in spending would have been steeper.

5月数据的下降出人意料，因为原本预计更高的能源成本会提振零售额。零售额数据中包含的汽油销售额随燃料成本上涨而增加（霍尔木兹海峡关闭后油价走高），且零售数据未经通胀调整。然而零售额仍出现下降。若扣除消费者价格上涨因素，实际消费下滑幅度会更大。

Weak demand at home has prompted companies across China to push harder into overseas markets. Exports hit a record in April and then climbed even higher in May to $376.8 billion, according to data released last week by China’s General Administration of Customs. Industrial production also strengthened in May, driven in part by especially strong output of electric cars and other high-tech products.

国内需求疲弱促使中国企业加大力度开拓海外市场。据中国海关总署上周发布的数据，4月份出口创下纪录，5月份出口进一步攀升至3768亿美元。5月份工业生产也有所加强，部分得益于电动汽车和其他高科技产品产量强劲增长。

“China’s supply side remains relatively strong: exports are growing rapidly, industrial production is holding up well, and high-tech sectors continue to expand,” said Zhu Tian, an economics professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai. “However, domestic demand remains weak.”

“中国的供给侧依然相对强劲：出口快速增长，工业生产保持良好，高科技行业持续扩张，”上海中欧国际工商学院经济学教授朱天表示。“然而国内需求依然疲弱。”

Investment in China fell in May even after excluding the deeply troubled real estate sector, as companies saw few opportunities for profitable expansion. Investment by private sector companies was particularly weak.

即使剔除深受困扰的房地产行业，5月份中国整体投资仍出现下降，因为企业认为盈利扩张的机会有限。私营企业投资尤其疲弱。

China’s trade surplus did not reach another monthly record in May because higher oil prices increased the cost of imports. China partly offset the impact by importing fewer barrels of oil than usual.

5月份中国贸易顺差未能再创月度纪录，因为更高的油价推高了进口成本。中国通过减少进口原油数量部分抵消了这一影响。

China’s increasingly bifurcated economy — marked by weak domestic demand and growing reliance on consumers in other countries — is expected to be a topic of discussion at the Group of 7 summit underway in southeastern France. The European Union has been weighing possible measures to limit imports of subsidized Chinese goods, while many Western economists argue that China’s currency, the renminbi, remains significantly undervalued.

中国日益分化的经济——国内需求疲弱，同时越来越依赖其他国家的消费者——预计将成为正在法国东南部举行的七国集团峰会讨论的话题之一。欧盟一直在考虑采取措施限制进口中国补贴商品，而许多西方经济学家认为，中国的人民币仍被显著低估。

“The G7 should come together to forge greater unity and a strategy to cope with what some are now calling China Shock 2.0, including pressing for significant renminbi appreciation,” said Mark Sobel, vice chairman and chief economist of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a research group specializing in central banking and currency policy.

“七国集团应团结一致，制定应对如今一些人所说的‘中国冲击2.0’的策略，包括敦促人民币大幅升值，”官方货币与金融机构论坛(OMFIF)副董事长兼首席经济学家马克·索贝尔表示。该论坛是一家专注于央行和货币政策的研究机构。

Car sales plunged in China last month, mainly due to a sharp drop in gasoline-powered car sales amid higher fuel prices. Overall vehicle sales dropped 22 percent in May from a year earlier and were a major drag on retail spending.

上个月中国汽车销量大幅下滑，主要原因是汽油车销量因燃料价格上涨而锐减。5月份整体汽车销量同比下降22%，严重拖累了零售支出。

The slide in car sales would have been far larger without continued strength in electric vehicles and plug-in gasoline-electric hybrids, which accounted for five of every eight cars sold in China last month.

若非电动汽车和插电式汽油-电动混合动力车继续保持强劲表现，汽车销量的下滑幅度会大得多。上个月中国每售出8辆汽车中，就有5辆是新能源汽车。

Few auto industry executives expect a quick turnaround. Summer is typically a slow season for car sales, which often do not recover until the national holidays in late September and early October.

汽车行业高管中很少有人预计会快速反弹。夏季通常是汽车销售的淡季，往往要到9月底和10月初的国庆假期前后才会回暖。

“Weak consumer confidence, combined with the prolonged downturn in the property sector, is likely to keep domestic demand under pressure,” said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, in a written reply to questions.

全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树在书面回复中表示：“消费者信心疲弱，加上房地产行业持续低迷，国内需求可能将继续承压。”

Almost immediately after striking a deal with Iran, President Trump appeared eager to take a victory lap.

在与伊朗达成协议后，特朗普总统几乎是第一时间想要炫耀自己取得了大胜。

He trumpeted that the agreement would open the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the world’s energy supplies whose stalled ship traffic has rattled the global economy. He told The New York Times that his efforts had saved Israel from nuclear extinction and made the Middle East safer. It all gave him a key win as he traveled to France for the Group of 7 summit, where he will meet with European leaders who have criticized his approach to the war.

他宣称，该协议将开放霍尔木兹海峡，这是全球能源供应的重要水道，此前船舶通行停滞已引发全球经济动荡。他在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，自己的努力将以色列从核毁灭中解救了出来，并让中东变得更加安全。这一切在他前往法国参加七国集团首脑会议时为他带来了一场关键的胜利，他将在那里与曾批评其战争手段的欧洲领导人会面。

Despite Mr. Trump’s grandiose claims, the agreement has not yet achieved the core goals he laid out three months ago for launching U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

尽管特朗普夸下海口，但该协议并未实现他三个月前发动美以对伊战争时所设定的核心目标。

Back then, Mr. Trump said the United States intended to “annihilate” Iran’s military capabilities, abolish its nuclear ambitions, topple its theocratic leadership and liberate its people, whom he encouraged to take over their government when the fighting had stopped. Just one week after the strikes started, he said Iran’s only path to a deal was an “unconditional surrender.”

当时他表示美国旨在“消灭”伊朗的军事能力、废除其核野心、推翻其神权领导层并解放其人民，他还鼓励伊朗人民在战斗停止后接管自己的政府。就在袭击开始仅一周后，他就表示伊朗达成协议的唯一途径是“无条件投降”。

Mr. Trump publicly declared victory on Sunday mainly based on solving a problem of his own making, in miscalculating Iran’s ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump asserted on Truth Social that he had authorized the toll-free opening of the crucial waterway, which would essentially restore the prewar status quo, and celebrated that the global energy markets would rebound.

特朗普在周日公开宣布胜利，主要基于解决了一个由他自己造成的问题，即他错误估计了伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力。特朗普在Truth Social上断言，他已经批准了这条关键水道的免费开放——实际上就是恢复战前的状况——并兴高采烈地表示，全球能源市场将会反弹。

“Ships of the World, start your engines,” he wrote. “Let the oil flow!”

“世界各国的船只，启动你们的发动机吧，”他写道。“让石油流淌起来！”

许多船只滞留在霍尔木兹海峡。

The latest framework, which has not yet been publicly released and is expected to be signed in Geneva on Friday, is a capstone to three months in which Mr. Trump has delivered a dizzying array of mixed messages.

这份目前尚未公开的最新框架协议预计将于周五在日内瓦签署，这是对特朗普在三个月里传递出的一系列令人眼花缭乱的矛盾信息的总结。

He said that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated” in U.S. strikes last year, yet said that the war was necessary to stop the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

他曾表示伊朗的核计划在去年美国的袭击中已被“彻底摧毁”，却又表示这场战争对于阻止伊朗人获得核武器是必要的。

Mr. Trump said that Iran’s nuclear program posed a threat not only to allies, but also to U.S. troops overseas and to everyday Americans. He was clear that the war’s conclusion would rest on one stipulation: “It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular, my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “I’ll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.”

特朗普曾表示，伊朗的核计划不仅对盟友构成威胁，也对海外美军和普通美国人构成威胁。他明确表示，战争的结束将取决于一个条件：“这向来是美国、特别是我的政府的政策，即这个恐怖主义政权绝不能拥有核武器，”他说。“我再重复一遍。他们绝不能拥有核武器。”

Even on Saturday, when he announced that a deal would be signed the next day, he claimed that Iran’s leaders “no longer want a nuclear weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement.”

甚至在周六，当他宣布将于次日签署协议时，他还声称伊朗领导人“不再想要核武器，他们也不会通过购买、研制或任何其他形式的采购来拥有核武器”。

But the deal leaves that issue unresolved for at least another 60 days, when both sides are expected to negotiate on nuclear issues.

但该协议将会把这一问题搁置至少60天，届时双方预计将就核问题展开谈判。

Mr. Trump did not cast the deal as a solution to the nuclear threat. Instead he focused on the Middle East and his legacy.

特朗普并没有将该协议视作核威胁的解决方案。相反，他将焦点放在了中东和他的政治遗产上。

“This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region,” he wrote in a social media post. “Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me.”

“这一伟大的协议将为整个地区带来和平与安全，”他在社交媒体的一篇帖文中写道。“许多位总统都曾试图与伊朗建立和平，但在我之前全部失败了。”

Mr. Trump has also sent conflicting messages over how far he would go to secure a nuclear agreement with Iran. He has gone from threatening to wipe out the country’s civilization to saying he was in no hurry to remove its remaining stockpiles of enriched uranium.

关于他打算施展怎样的手段迫使伊朗就范，特朗普也释放了相互矛盾的信息。他的立场已经从威胁要抹去该国的文明，转变为表示自己并不急于清除其剩余的浓缩铀库存。

At the start of the war, Mr. Trump initially claimed the United States would accomplish its goals in “four to five weeks.” He repeatedly compared the war in Iran to his quick military operation in Venezuela, in which the top leader was removed but much of the rest of the government remained in place, willing to work with the United States.

在战争开始时，特朗普声称美国将在“四到五周内”完成其目标。他一再将伊朗战争与他在委内瑞拉快速进行的军事行动相提并论，那场行动导致最高领导人更迭，但政府的其他大部分架构仍留在原位，并愿意与美国合作。

This war instead dragged on for months, killing thousands of Iranian civilians and 13 American service members. Rather than bowing to the United States, Iran’s new leadership has been emboldened, consistently withstanding military and diplomatic pressure to persist in its goal of advancing a nuclear program.

相比之下，这场战争拖延了数月，导致数千名伊朗平民和13名美国军人丧生。伊朗的新领导层不仅没有向美国低头，反而变得更加强势，持续顶住军事和外交压力，坚持其推进核计划的目标。

In negotiations with Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy, Steve Witkoff, the Iranians have held firm on not giving up the right to enrich uranium.

在与特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳以及特使史蒂夫·威特科夫进行的谈判中，伊朗人在不放弃浓缩铀权利的问题上立场坚定。

“As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement,” Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said in a statement on X. “Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way.”

“至于核问题，其实并没有达成协议，”前美国驻以色列大使丹尼尔·B·沙皮罗在X上的一份声明中表示。“伊朗知道如何拖延那些谈判，并试图在过程中捞取让步。”

He added that the United States now appeared to be paying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by potentially lifting sanctions imposed against Iran. The Trump administration has said Iran would receive no relief from sanctions or release of its frozen financial assets until it delivered on its commitments.

他还说，换言之，美国现在似乎正在通过可能解除对伊朗的制裁来换取重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。特朗普政府则曾表示，在伊朗履行其承诺之前，它不会获得任何制裁减免，其被冻结的金融资产也不会获得释放。

The framework does provide a path toward potential peace and economic relief. And on Monday, both world leaders and global markets expressed optimism.

该框架确实为潜在的和平与经济缓解提供了一条路径。周一，世界领导人和全球市场均表达了乐观情绪。

上周在德黑兰街头。伊朗新领导层非但没有向美国屈服，反而变得更加强势。

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, who previously said that the United States had “no strategy” and was being “humiliated” by Iran in the war, congratulated both sides on the diplomatic breakthrough, calling it a potential step toward “a reinvigorated global economy and a more secure Middle East.”

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨此前曾表示美国在战争中“没有战略”且正遭到伊朗的“羞辱”，如今他向双方在外交上取得的突破表示祝贺，称其有望成为迈向“重振全球经济和更安全中东”的一步。

But it was a cautious optimism given all the uncertainties. Crucially, Iran’s nuclear capability will need to be hashed out over the next two months of negotiations, raising questions over whether a lasting peace will materialize.

但鉴于所有的不确定性，这是一种谨慎的乐观。至关重要的是，伊朗的核能力需要在接下来的两个月谈判中进行详细讨论，这引发了关于持久和平能否实现的疑问。

Plenty of spoilers could arise along the way. Notably Israel, a partner in the war but not in the framework for peace, has been less than enthusiastic about the deal. Mr. Trump himself said in the Times interview that he was prepared to restart military attacks against Tehran if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States.

在未来的进程中可能会出现许多搅局因素。值得注意的是，作为战争合作者但并未参与和平框架制定的以色列对该协议一直缺乏热情。特朗普本人在接受时报采访时就表示，如果伊朗未能与美国达成最终的核协议，他准备重新启动对德黑兰的军事打击。

Some of Mr. Trump’s allies appeared concerned over the unfinished aspects of the negotiations. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who has long supported military action against Iran, said he was “somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming.”

特朗普的一些盟友似乎对谈判中未完成的部分感到担忧。长期支持对伊采取军事行动的南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆表示，他“有些担心伊朗对协议的看法似乎与美国谈判团队所声称的有所不同”。

“I will be watching closely the ensuing negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other matters,” Mr. Graham said. He added that Vice President JD Vance, whom he described as the “architect of the deal,” should ensure that the final deal is presented to Congress.

“我将密切关注随后关于伊朗核计划及其他事务的谈判，”格雷厄姆说。他补充说，被他称为“协议设计师”的副总统 JD·万斯应当确保将最终协议提交给国会。

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Mr. Vance said the framework gave the administration “leverage,” though there remained “details to figure out,” including on enriched uranium.

在周一接受CNBC采访时，万斯表示该框架为政府提供了“杠杆”，尽管仍有“细节需要解决”，包括在浓缩铀问题上。

As negotiations progressed over the weekend, Mr. Trump posted a lengthy criticism on social media of the previous deal struck with Iran by President Barack Obama, asserting that the one he was working on would be better.

随着谈判在周末取得进展，特朗普在社交媒体上对先前由贝拉克·奥巴马总统签署的伊朗协议发表了长篇批评，断言他正在努力达成的这一个将会更好。

Mr. Shapiro, who is also a fellow at the research institute The Atlantic Council, said on social media that Mr. Trump seemed focused on comparing his deal favorably to the Obama deal, but the United States was far from being able to come to such a conclusion.

兼任研究机构大西洋理事会研究员的沙皮罗在社交媒体上表示，特朗普似乎专注于证明自己的协议比奥巴马的好，但美国目前还远未能得出这样的结论。

“It is possible that no deal will ever be reached,” Mr. Shapiro said, “and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.”

“有可能永远无法达成任何协议，”沙皮罗说，“并且非常可能的是，即使达成了一项协议，它也将比我们在战前通过外交途径所能取得的协议更糟糕。”

Japan’s imperial family, which has long maintained a male-only lineage for emperors, is running out of royals. Now the country has a plan to help revitalize its dwindling ranks: Recruit more men.

日本皇室长期以来维持着仅限男性继承天皇之位的传统，如今正面临皇室成员后继无人的困境。现在，日本提出了一项计划以振兴日益萎缩的皇室：招收更多男性成员。

Japan’s legislature, hoping to avoid a succession crisis, moved forward with a proposal this past week to allow the imperial family to adopt scores of distant male relatives. That could give Japan more choices for future emperors — only men are allowed to ascend the Chrysanthemum Throne — and help ensure the survival of the world’s oldest monarchy.

为避免继承危机，日本立法机构于上周推进了一项提案，允许皇室收养数十名远房男性亲属。这可能日本未来的天皇提供更多选择——只有男性才被允许登上菊花王座——并有助于确保这个世界上最古老的君主制得以存续。

The plan has angered some Japanese officials, commentators and activists, who say there is an easier solution: allowing women to reign as emperor, an idea embraced by a broad swath of the public, according to polls.

该计划激怒了一些日本官员、评论家和活动人士，他们表示有一个更简单的解决方案：允许女性成为天皇。民调显示，这一想法得到了广大民众的支持。

东京皇居的新年贺年仪式。

“Many citizens want a female emperor now,” said Kiyomi Tsujimoto, a female lawmaker with the Constitutional Democratic Party who opposes the plan. “I have people running up to me every day.”

“现在许多国民都希望有一位女天皇，”反对该计划的立宪民主党女性议员辻元清美表示。“每天都有人对我表达这一诉求。”

But in Japan’s patriarchal system, that idea is considered a nonstarter.

但在日本的父权体制下，这种想法被认为是行不通的。

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a conservative lawmaker, shattered the political glass ceiling last year when she became the first woman to lead Japan’s government. But she and her allies have been among the most vocal proponents of preserving the male-only lineage.

保守派议员高市早苗首相在去年打破了政治领域的玻璃天花板，成为首位领导日本政府的女性。但她及其盟友一直是维持男性世袭皇位最强烈的支持者。

She has said that “it is considered appropriate to limit eligibility to male descendants of the imperial lineage.”

她曾表示，“将继承资格限定为皇室血统的男性后代是适当的。”

An Imperial Crisis

皇室危机

Japan’s demographic decline has touched nearly every aspect of its society, including the monarchy. The royal family is now made up of only 16 people — five men and 11 women — down about a quarter since 1990. This makes it difficult for the family to carry out its public duties, like overseas visits and court ceremonies. There are simply not enough royals to take part. Today, there are only three heirs to the throne, compared with six a generation ago.

日本的人口衰退几乎影响了社会的方方面面，包括皇室。如今，日本皇室仅有16人，包括五名男性和11名女性，与1990年相比减少了约四分之一。这使得皇室难以履行海外访问和宫廷仪式等公共职责，因为根本没有足够的皇室成员来参与这些活动。皇位继承人目前仅剩三位，上一代则有六位。

The reigning emperor, Naruhito, 66, is the 126th in a line that extends back to the country’s founding in 660 B.C. by the Emperor Jimmu, who, according to legend, descended from a sun goddess.

现任天皇德仁现年66岁，是该世系的第126代，这一血脉可追溯至公元前660年神武天皇开创的王朝。据传说，神武天皇是一位太阳女神的后代。

In the early 2000s, the pressure to bear a son drove Naruhito’s wife, Empress Masako, a Harvard-educated former diplomat, into a deep depression. The couple has a daughter, Princess Aiko, 24, who has taken on a more visible role recently, like leading a visit to Laos, and has been championed by some as a future emperor.

在21世纪初，生下男性继承人的巨大压力导致德仁的妻子、曾在哈佛大学就读的前外交官雅子皇后患上了严重的抑郁症。这对夫妇育有一女，即现年24岁的爱子公主。她最近开始扮演更受瞩目的角色，例如率团访问老挝，并被一些人视为未来的天皇人选。

爱子公主去年访问老挝。

But under the current rules, only Prince Hitachi, Naruhito’s 90-year-old uncle; Crown Prince Akishino, the emperor’s 60-year-old brother; and Prince Hisahito, the monarch’s 19-year-old nephew, are recognized as heirs to the throne.

但在现行规定下，只有德仁现年90岁的叔叔常陆宫正仁亲王、现年60岁的弟弟秋筱宫文仁亲王，以及现年19岁的侄子悠仁亲王被认可为皇位继承人。

The Adoption Plan

收养计划

In the aftermath of World War II, the United States sought to weaken the power of the Japanese imperial family members, who were regarded by the public as demigods. (The monarchy historically maintained a divine right to rule.)

在第二次世界大战结束后，美国试图削弱日本皇室成员的权力，因为皇室成员当时被民众视为半神。（历史上，君主制一直主张君权神授。）

Under Japan’s 1947 Constitution, imposed under Gen. Douglas MacArthur, the emperor became “the symbol of the state and of the unity of the people,” a figurehead with no political authority. Eleven imperial families were forced to give up their royal status, shrinking the family to 16, down from 67 in 1946.

根据由道格拉斯·麦克阿瑟将军施加的日本1947年宪法，天皇成了“国家和人民团结的象征”，沦为没有任何政治权力的虚位元首。11个皇室家族被迫放弃皇室身份，使得皇族成员从1946年的67人锐减至16人。

Under the plan to be advanced in Parliament, men from these former royal branches would be brought back into the monarchy. While it is unclear how the men would be selected or how many would be eligible, they would most likely come from the Kuni, Higashikuni, Kaya and Takeda families. Experts said their offspring might one day be eligible to inherit the throne.

根据即将提交议会审议的计划，这些前皇族分支中的男性成员将被重新纳入皇室体系。虽然目前尚不清楚这些男性将如何选拔，或有多少人符合资格，但他们很可能来自久迩、东久迩、贺阳和竹田家族。专家表示，他们的后代未来有一天可能具备继承皇位的资格。

1943年，明仁亲王（左）等亲王在东京为士兵送行。

The men from these families have been living as commoners, working in media, life insurance, advertising and other fields, according to Japanese news reports. Some question whether the public would accept them or their offspring as royals.

据日本新闻报道，这些家族的男性一直以平民身份生活，在媒体、人寿保险、广告及其他领域工作。有人质疑日本民众是否会接受他们或其后代成为皇室成员。

Emperor Naruhito declined to discuss the specifics of the plan this past week but said he hoped the discussions would be “understood by the people.”

德仁天皇在上周拒绝讨论该计划的具体细节，但他表示，希望相关的讨论能够“得到国民的理解”。

A Nod to Women

对女性的认可

Japan has had female emperors with varying degrees of power, including Go-Sakuramachi, who reigned in the late 1700s. But men have dominated the ranks since then, and Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has led Japan for much of the past seven decades, has long held that the male line of succession is sacrosanct.

日本历史上曾出现过权力大小不一的女性天皇，包括在18世纪末在位的后樱町天皇，但自那以后一直由男性主导皇位。高市早苗所属的自由民主党在过去70多年里长期执政，它一直坚持认为男性继承制是神圣不可侵犯的。

The plan now in Parliament would give women in the imperial family some new rights. They would be allowed to stay in the family and retain their royal status if they marry a commoner.

目前提交国会审议的方案将赋予皇室女性一些新的权利。如果她们与平民结婚，将被允许留在皇室并保留其皇室身份。

2月，日本首相高市早苗在国会发表演讲。

But others argue that equality will not be achieved until women are allowed to reign, an idea that has been discussed on and off over the years. The popularity of Princess Aiko has added to a sense that women could be well suited for the role.

但也有人认为，除非允许女性继承皇位，否则就无法实现真正的平等，这一想法多年来一直被断断续续地讨论着。爱子公主备受欢迎更让人觉得女性完全胜任这一角色。

Hideya Kawanishi, an expert on the imperial family at Nagoya University, said the plan would not address the longer-term succession crisis. He said the problem could be solved by elevating women, and the reluctance to do so reflected prejudice in Japan.

名古屋大学的皇室问题专家河西秀哉表示，该计划无法解决长期的继承危机。他指出，这个问题可以通过提升女性地位来解决，对此措施的抗拒反映了日本社会的偏见。

“Even though society has changed, there are still old men who lament when a girl is born,” he said. “Over time, the imperial system will become unsustainable.”

“尽管社会已经发生了变化，但在女孩出生时，仍然有一些老一辈男人会感到惋惜，”他说。“随着时间的推移，天皇制度将变得难以为继。”

Two events from the past week help crystallize this strange, contradictory moment for the U.S. economy.

过去一周发生的两件事有助于说明美国经济眼下这个既奇怪又矛盾的时刻。

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the surge in energy prices had wiped out a year and a half of wage gains for the average American worker. On Friday, the public-markets debut of SpaceX made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

周三，美国劳工统计局报告称，能源价格飙升已经抹去了美国普通劳动者过去一年半的工资涨幅。周五，SpaceX上市，使埃隆·马斯克成为全球首位万亿美元富豪。

That stark juxtaposition helps explain why many Americans, in survey after survey, say they no longer believe the U.S. economy is working for them. A few people are getting fabulously, unimaginably wealthy at the same time that entire generations of families worry they will never be able to afford to buy a house, raise children or enjoy a comfortable retirement.

这一鲜明对比有助于解释为何在多次民调中许多美国人都表示他们不再相信美国经济是为他们服务的。少数人正在积累令人叹为观止的巨额财富，与此同时，整整几代普通家庭却在担心自己永远买不起房、养不起孩子，也无法安享退休生活。

“I don’t think the stock market is necessarily causing” Americans’ pessimism about the economy, said Stefanie Stantcheva, a Harvard professor who studies public sentiment. “But I don’t think people are looking at it and are thinking, ‘Great, this means I’m going to do very well, too.’ It’s potentially reinforcing this feeling of ‘I’m falling behind.’”

“我并不认为股市本身一定导致了”美国人对经济的悲观看法，研究公众情绪的哈佛大学教授斯特凡妮·斯坦切瓦说，“但我也不认为人们看着股市会觉得，‘太好了，这意味着我也会过得很好。’相反，它可能强化了这样一种感觉：‘我掉队了。’”

Inequality is hardly a new feature in America. But the explosion of wealth at the very top is without precedent in U.S. history. At the height of the Gilded Age at the end of the 19th century, the richest handful of Americans had a net worth equivalent to about 3 percent of the country’s annual economic output, according to data compiled by the French economists Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez. Today, the fortunes of the same 0.00001 percent — about 20 individuals — make up roughly four times as large a share, equivalent to 12 percent of annual output.

不平等在美国算不上新现象。但财富在最顶层群体中的爆炸式增长是美国历史上前所未有的。根据法国经济学家加布里埃尔·祖克曼和伊曼纽尔·赛兹汇编的数据，在19世纪末镀金时代的鼎盛时期，最富有的少数美国人的净资产相当于美国年度经济产出的3%左右。如今，同样是这0.00001%的人（约20人）的财富占比大约是这个数字的四倍，相当于年度产出的12%。

Other economists, using different methodologies, come up with somewhat different numbers. But hardly anyone disputes the basic fact that the wealthiest few have made extraordinary gains in recent years.

其他经济学家采用不同方法得出的数据略有差异，但几乎没有人质疑这样一个基本事实：最富有的少数人近年来实现了惊人的财富增长。

The picture for the other 99 percent of Americans is more nuanced. More than half of U.S. households own stocks, either directly or through retirement accounts, meaning they have benefited at least somewhat from the record-setting run-up in share prices. Wealth has risen more slowly for middle-class families than for the rich over the past decade, Federal Reserve data shows, but it has still risen.

对于其余99%的美国人来说，情况则更为复杂。超过一半的美国家庭通过直接持股或退休账户持有股票，这意味着他们在一定程度上也受益于股价屡创新高的行情。美联储数据显示，过去十年间中产阶级家庭的财富增速慢于富人，但仍有所增长。

For most Americans, however, “wealth” is a somewhat abstract concept, tied up in the house where they live and the retirement accounts they hope to leave untouched for as long as possible. What matters more, day to day, is their income. And the share of national income going to workers has been trending down for decades. It hit a record low in the first quarter of the year, according to data from the Commerce Department.

然而，对大多数美国人来说，“财富”是一个相当抽象的概念，与他们居住的房子和尽量希望不到万不得已不要动用的退休账户紧密相连。对日常生活来说，更重要的是他们的收入。而劳动者在国民收入中所占的份额数十年来一直呈下降趋势，今年一季度更跌至历史低位。

Now, rising costs are again taking a bite out of workers’ paychecks. The recent jump in energy prices — a result of the war with Iran — pushed the annual inflation rate to a three-year high in May. Hourly wages, adjusted for inflation, have fallen for three months in a row, erasing all the gains made during President Trump’s first year in office. Measures of consumer sentiment have plummeted as gas prices have risen.

如今，物价上涨再次侵蚀着劳动者的工资收入。受伊朗战争影响，近期能源价格飙升，美国5月份的年化通胀率升至三年来最高水平。经通胀调整后的时薪已经连续三个月下降，抹去了特朗普总统执政第一年实现的所有涨幅。随着汽油价格上涨，各项消费者信心指标也大幅下降。

Oil prices have eased somewhat in recent weeks on hopes of a lasting cease-fire, and are likely to fall further if the United States and Iran reach a deal and tankers begin to move out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz in greater numbers.

近几周，随着持久停火的希望升温，油价已有所回落，若美伊最终达成协议、更多油轮开始穿越霍尔木兹海峡驶出波斯湾，油价很可能进一步下跌。

本周，芝加哥一家壳牌加油站的油价。

But relief at the pump is not likely to end Americans’ anxiety after years of one economic shock after another. First, the Covid-19 pandemic shut down large parts of the economy and put tens of millions of people out of work, at least temporarily. Then inflation soared to the highest level in four decades. Since then, Americans have endured high interest rates, tariffs and repeated recession scares.

但油价回落不太可能消除美国人在经历了多年经济冲击后的焦虑。新冠疫情导致大部分经济活动陷入停滞，数千万人失业（至少是暂时失业）。随后，通胀飙升至40年来的最高水平。自那以后，美国人一直在忍受高利率、高关税和一波又一波的衰退恐慌。

“If you think about what it felt like to go through Covid, and then inflation, and also political unrest and instability, you come out of those things thinking, ‘How am I supposed to plan for the future?’” said Elizabeth Wilkins, president of the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank.

“想想先后经历疫情、通胀以及政治动荡和不安是什么感觉。经历这些之后，你会想：‘我怎么可能规划未来？’”左倾智库罗斯福研究所所长伊丽莎白·威尔金斯说。

Now Americans face a new threat in the form of artificial intelligence, which tech industry leaders warn could eliminate whole categories of white-collar work. Many economists are skeptical of those predictions, but polls show that many workers are worried about what the technology will mean for their careers. Voters across the country have also rebelled against plans to build A.I. data centers in their communities, citing their impact on electricity bills, water supplies and air quality.

如今，美国人面临人工智能这一新威胁。科技行业领袖警告称，人工智能可能会彻底淘汰某些白领职业。许多经济学家对这些预测持怀疑态度，但民调显示，许多劳动者担心这项技术会给他们的职业生涯带来怎样的冲击。全美各地的选民还纷纷抵制在自己的社区建设人工智能数据中心的计划，理由是它们会推高电费、消耗水资源并影响空气质量。

Given those concerns, it is hardly surprising that the public is uncomfortable with the surge in wealth that has accompanied the A.I. boom. Companies connected to the technology have driven the recent gains in the stock market. SpaceX’s debut on Friday was the first in what is expected to be a series of giant initial public offerings for A.I. companies. (SpaceX, though best known for its rockets and satellites, also owns an A.I. lab and has made huge investments in A.I. infrastructure.)

考虑到这些担忧，公众对伴随人工智能热潮而来的财富激增感到不安就不足为奇了。与该技术相关的公司推动了近期股市的上涨。SpaceX周五的上市是人工智能公司一系列大规模IPO中的第一个。（SpaceX虽以火箭和卫星闻名，但也拥有自己的人工智能实验室，并在人工智能基础设施上投入了巨额资金。）

In addition to making Mr. Musk a trillionaire, the SpaceX I.P.O. alone was expected to mint thousands of new millionaires and several billionaires.

SpaceX这次IPO不仅让马斯克成为万亿富翁，还有望造就数千名新的百万富翁和数名亿万富翁。

“Many of the tech moguls who are the current superrich have not helped themselves in the conversation by saying, ‘My innovation is going to obliterate your life,’” said Glenn Hubbard, an economist at Columbia Business School who served as a top adviser to President George W. Bush. “It’s not too crazy to imagine a backlash.”

哥伦比亚商学院经济学家、曾担任乔治·W·布什总统高级顾问的格伦·哈伯德说：“当今这些超级富豪中的许多科技大亨在公共舆论中的言论也没有给自己加到分，说什么‘我的创新将彻底颠覆你的生活’，不难想象会引发强烈反弹。”

Mr. Hubbard said he did not necessarily see a problem with the existence of billionaires or even trillionaires, as long as people were getting rich through entrepreneurship and innovation rather than through corruption or cronyism. But he said policymakers should take the public attitudes seriously. Congress should consider ways to tax billionaires more effectively, he said, and to ensure that the wealthy don’t exert undue influence on the political system.

哈伯德表示，他不认为亿万富翁甚至万亿富翁的存在本身是个问题，只要这些财富来自创业和创新，而非腐败或裙带关系。但他表示，政策制定者应该认真对待公众的情绪。他说，国会应考虑如何更有效地对超级富豪征税，并确保富人不会对政治体系施加不适当的影响。

Many progressive economists, however, argue that enormous fortunes like Mr. Musk’s inherently distort both the economic and the political systems, giving the superrich too many ways to avoid regulation, taxation and oversight.

然而，许多进步派经济学家认为，像马斯克拥有的此等巨额财富本身就会扭曲经济和政治体系，它让超级富豪有太多办法逃避监管、税收和监督。

“It’s the power to influence markets, it’s the power to buy competitors, it’s the power to influence policymaking,” said Mr. Zucman, one of the French scholars of wealth inequality. “If you want a well-functioning market economy, it’s not good to have too much concentrated power with extreme wealth at the very top. It distorts markets. It distorts democracy.”

“这是影响市场的权力、是收购竞争对手的权力、是左右政策制定的权力，”研究财富不平等问题的法国学者祖克曼说。“如果你想拥有一个运转良好的市场经济，让极致的财富和权力高度集中在最顶端的少数人手里不是好事。它会扭曲市场，也会扭曲民主。”

Only the hackiest screenwriter imaginable would script America’s decline this way.

只有最蹩脚的编剧才会如此编排美国的衰落。

Think of it: On the 250th anniversary of our country’s founding, America’s increasingly senescent president turned the White House lawn into a tacky, bloody gladiatorial arena while capitulating to Iran. Mike Judge came close to imagining some elements of our debasement in his 2006 satire “Idiocracy,” which depicts a United States led by a professional wrestler whose middle name is Mountain Dew. But if “Idiocracy” captured something of the vibe of Donald Trump’s reign, it was both too early and too lighthearted to nail the sordid specifics, which on Sunday included the fighter Josh Hokit, standing in an octagonal cage wrapped in crypto ads, calling the former first lady Michelle Obama a man.

试想一下：在建国250周年之际，美国的这位日益衰老的总统将白宫草坪变成了一个俗气且血腥的角斗场，与此同时还在向伊朗投降。迈克·贾吉在2006年的讽刺喜剧《蠢蛋进化论》(Idiocracy)中近乎预见到了我们堕落的一些元素——该片描绘的美国由一位中间名为“激浪”(Mountain Dew)的职业摔跤手领导。如果说《蠢蛋进化论》捕捉到了唐纳德·特朗普统治时期的某种氛围，那它也既过于超前，又过于轻松，未能精准击中那些肮脏的细节。而在周日，这些细节包括了格斗选手乔什·霍基特站在贴满加密货币广告的八角笼里，称前第一夫人米歇尔·奥巴马是个男人。

It is, to be sure, a good thing that the war in Iran appears to be over. Once Trump had dragged America into a quagmire, there was no prospect of ending the debacle on beneficial terms. Contrary to the caterwauling of Iran hawks, the deal Trump reached isn’t the problem — it’s simply a tacit acknowledgment of a defeat that was already baked in. Still, it marks a moment of American ignominy.

诚然，伊朗战争看似结束了，这是件好事。一旦特朗普将美国拖入泥潭，就不可能指望以有利的条件收场。与那些伊朗鹰派的大声哀嚎相反，特朗普达成的协议本身不是问题——它不过是对一场早已注定的失败的无声承认。尽管如此，这依然标志着美国的一个耻辱时刻。

“The fact that the strongest, the mightiest military power in the world, in cooperation with the mightiest intelligence agency in the world — Israel’s — were not able to achieve any of their strategic objectives against a third-rate regional power is quite stunning,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.

“世界上最强大、最具威慑力的军事力量与世界上最强大的情报机构——以色列摩萨德——合作，却未能对一个三流地区强国实现任何战略目标，这简直令人震惊，”国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹如是说。

Details of the “memorandum of understanding” between the United States and Iran are still emerging; the White House has said the text will be released in a day or two. But it appears that its main accomplishment will be to open the Strait of Hormuz, which of course was open before the war. There’s been no nuclear agreement. Reports suggest Iran has not had to give up its ballistic missile program or its support for proxies like Hezbollah. The beleaguered Iranian people have not, perhaps needless to say, been freed from their awful rulers.

美伊之间这份“谅解备忘录”的细节仍在浮出水面；白宫表示文本将在一两天内公布。但它主要的成果似乎将是重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——而该海峡在战前本来就是畅通的。双方并没有达成核协议。报道显示，伊朗无需放弃其弹道导弹计划，也无需停止对真主党等代理人的支持。不用说，饱受压迫的伊朗人民也没有从他们糟糕的统治者的魔掌下获得解放。

Though Vice President JD Vance has said Iran could have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund, it’s not clear what that will look like, or whether Iran might use its control of the Strait to collect some sort of toll. But by demonstrating its power to withstand American bombing while putting a chokehold on the global economy, it’s achieved a level of deterrence it previously lacked. “Iran is not likely to take seriously that the U.S. would return to war, certainly before the U.S. midterms,” wrote Daniel Shapiro, Barack Obama’s ambassador to Israel, on social media. “So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.”

尽管副总统JD·万斯表示伊朗可以获得3000亿美元的重建基金，但目前尚不清楚这笔资金的具体形式，也不清楚伊朗是否会利用其对霍尔木兹海峡的控制来收取某种过路费。但是，通过展示其在承受美国轰炸的同时扼住全球经济咽喉的能力，伊朗获得了此前缺乏的威慑力。“在中期选举之前，伊朗不太可能认真对待美国重返战争的可能性，”贝拉克·奥巴马政府的驻以色列大使丹尼尔·夏皮罗在社交媒体上写道。“这意味着我们将在没有可信武力威胁的情况下进行外交。”

It probably wasn’t a coincidence that the memorandum of understanding was finalized while Ultimate Fighting Championship cage matches were fought at the White House. In addition to marking the nation’s quarter of a millennium, the U.F.C. extravaganza was meant to celebrate Trump’s 80th birthday. Both Iran and some Democrats suspected he wanted to get the Iran deal done in time for the occasion. And Trump might have hoped that the event — which at one point had a Marine Corps honor guard onstage with ring girls in sparkly red hot pants and a human-size Monster Energy Drink can — would help lure back some of the young men disillusioned by both his war and his mishandling of the economy.

这份谅解备忘录在终极格斗冠军赛(UFC)于白宫举行笼斗比赛期间敲定，恐怕并非巧合。除了庆祝建国250周年，这场UFC盛会也是为了庆祝特朗普的80岁生日。伊朗和一些民主党人都怀疑，他想赶在此时完成伊朗协议。而特朗普或许希望，这场盛会——舞台上一度同时站着海军陆战队仪仗队、穿着亮片红色热裤的举牌女郎，还有一个真人大小的魔爪能量饮料罐——能帮助赢回那些因战争和经济乱局而感到幻灭的年轻男性。

Maybe it will work. Joe Rogan, the podcast host who has been increasingly critical of Trump in recent months, agreed to serve as an announcer. The Wall Street Journal reported on one excited fan who drove seven hours in the hope of seeing Trump’s pageant and said, “It’s like the Colosseum in real life.” To America’s founders, the fall of the Roman Republic and the rise of the Roman Empire was a cautionary tale. To parts of MAGA, it’s apparently aspirational.

也许这会奏效。近几个月来对特朗普批评越来越多的播客主持人乔·罗根同意担任解说员。《华尔街日报》报道了一位兴奋的粉丝，他开了七个小时的车希望能看到特朗普的这场盛典，并说：“这就像现实生活中的罗马斗兽场。”对于美国的开国元勋们而言，罗马共和国的衰落和罗马帝国的崛起是一个警世故事。而对于MAGA阵营的一部分人来说，这显然是一种向往。

But to everyone else, the confluence of America’s failure in Iran and Trump’s Temu colosseum should paint a clear picture of decadence, rot and weakness trying to conceal itself behind macho kitsch. This is an administration capable of immense, epic destruction, but unable to create much besides spectacle.

但对于其他人来说，美国在伊朗的失败与特朗普那Temu版斗兽场的结合应当清晰地勾勒出一幅画面：腐朽与软弱正试图躲在充满男子气概的刻奇背后自我掩饰。这届政府有能力制造巨大的、史诗般的破坏，但除了奇观之外，却几乎创造不出任何东西。

The conservative writer Marc Thiessen tried to depict Trump’s lurid festival as a sign of his demotic spirit, opening the White House to the sort of people who go to motocross rallies and monster truck shows. “If you’re offended by that, you may be an elitist snob,” he wrote. Put aside, for a moment, the fact that Thiessen once clucked that Barack Obama was failing to maintain “presidential dignity.” By this standard — that U.F.C. brawls, which John McCain once called “human cockfighting,” belong in the White House because lots of Americans like them — there can be no standards. Like Ultimate Fighting, porn is extremely popular, but I somehow doubt Thiessen would defend a Democratic president who invited a bunch of OnlyFans creators to the Oval Office while he was losing a war.

保守派作家马克·蒂森试图将特朗普这场耸人听闻的节日描绘为他亲民精神的体现，称其将白宫向那些喜欢摩托车越野赛和怪兽卡车秀的人群开放了。“如果你对此感到反感，你可能就是个精英主义的势利小人，”他写道。暂且不论蒂森曾对贝拉克·奥巴马未能维持“总统尊严”而喋喋不休这一事实。按这个标准——即约翰·麦凯恩曾称之为“人类斗鸡”的UFC斗殴之所以该进白宫，仅仅是因为很多美国人喜欢——那就意味着没有任何标准可言。和终极格斗一样，色情片也非常流行，但我很难相信，如果一位民主党总统在输掉一场战争的同时，邀请一群OnlyFans的创作者进椭圆形办公室，蒂森会为其辩护。

It’s tempting to mention bread and circuses here, except there’s no bread. On the contrary, Trump and his allies monetized Sunday’s program. In March, Trump obtained shares in the U.F.C.’s parent company. And to watch the show, members of the public needed a subscription to Paramount+, controlled by the Trump ally David Ellison, who bought CBS and then made it friendlier to the administration. Rather than a gift to his restive base, the event was another example of the administration selling America for parts.

这里很容易让人联想到“面包与马戏”，但问题是根本没有面包。恰恰相反，特朗普及其盟友将周日的节目变现了。今年3月，特朗普获得了UFC母公司的股份。而公众想要观看这场演出，需要订阅由特朗普盟友大卫·埃里森控制的Paramount+，此人收购了CBS并使其对现政府更加友好。这场活动非但不是给他躁动的基本盘的一份礼物，反而是本届政府将美国拆零出售的又一例证。

In the lead-up to the fight, the U.F.C.’s Derrick Lewis — who’d later be knocked out by Hokit — told The Journal he felt that he was participating in something historic. “This is one of the events they’ll be talking about 100 years from now,” he said. He could be right, but not in the way he thinks.

在比赛前夕，UFC选手德里克·刘易斯——他后来被霍基特击倒——告诉《华尔街日报》，他觉得自己正在参与一个历史性事件。“这是100年后人们还会谈论的事件之一，”他说。他可能是对的，但绝非以他所想的方式。

Someday, someone might write — or, more likely, film — an American version of Edward Gibbon’s “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” Its maker will want to include a scene of the 92-foot steel claw towering over the White House while somewhere inside the building, people scrambled to figure out how to sell a foreign policy disaster as a great victory.

将来某一天，有人或许会撰写——或者更有可能拍摄——一部爱德华·吉本的《罗马帝国衰亡史》的美国版。创作者一定会想要纳入这样一个场景：28米的钢铁巨爪耸立在白宫之上，而在大楼内的某个角落，人们正手忙脚乱地试图将一场外交政策灾难包装成伟大的胜利兜售出去。

When President Trump gave thanks to those who had helped him reach an initial cease-fire agreement with Iran, he praised two world leaders he has called his friends — Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

特朗普总统向帮助他与伊朗达成初步停火协议的人表示感谢时，赞扬了两位被他称为朋友的世界领导人——中国的习近平和俄罗斯的普京。

The leaders, he said, had aided the Americans in sealing the deal with the Iranians, or at least had helped set the conditions by not sending oil and gas tankers or other commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz to compromise a U.S. naval blockade aimed at pressuring Iran.

他说，这两位领导人帮助美国人与伊朗人敲定了协议，或者至少为其创造了条件——他们没有派遣油气运输船或者其他商业船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，因而没有破坏美国旨在向伊朗施压的海上封锁。

“He was a total gentleman,” the American president said of Mr. Xi in an interview with The New York Times on Sunday, as he was celebrating his 80th birthday with a dinner and an Ultimate Fighting Championship cage match on the South Lawn of the White House. “He didn’t send a tanker, along with 20 destroyers on each side of it, to try and break up the blockade.”

“他是个十足的绅士，”美国总统周日在接受《纽约时报》采访时这样谈及习近平。当时他正在白宫南草坪举办晚宴，观看UFC笼斗赛，庆祝自己的80岁生日。“他没有派一艘油轮，两边各跟20艘驱逐舰，试图去打破封锁。”

The White House did not reply to a request for comment on Monday on what Mr. Trump meant when he said Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin had helped the Americans and Iranians reach the initial agreement. The State Department referred questions to the White House. The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

周一，当记者要求解释特朗普所称的中俄领导人帮助美伊达成初步协议的具体含义时，白宫未予回应。国务院表示应由白宫回答相关问题。俄罗斯驻华盛顿大使馆也没有回复置评请求。

The Chinese embassy also did not send a reply, but responded after this article was published on Monday afternoon. It said in a statement that Mr. Xi had put out a declaration with four principles for Middle East peace and that China “has been working tirelessly for the end of fighting and peace.”

中国大使馆最初也没有予以回复，但在本文于周一下午发表后作出了回应。在一份声明中，大使馆表示，习近平主席发表了关于中东和平的四项原则声明，并称中国“一直在为结束冲突和实现和平而不懈努力”。

In recent months, Mr. Trump has embraced China as a partner. He had to retreat from a trade war with the country last year after retaliation by the Chinese government, and he subsequently praised Mr. Xi as a tough negotiator.

近几个月来，特朗普已将中国视为合作伙伴。去年，在中国政府采取报复措施后，他不得不在与中国的贸易战中退让，随后他称赞习近平是一位强硬的谈判代表。

He has also been trying to improve relations with Moscow, though Mr. Putin has resisted the American president’s efforts to get Russia and Ukraine to accept a settlement to end the full-scale Russian invasion that began in 2022. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke by phone on Sunday.

他也一直努力改善与莫斯科的关系，尽管普京拒绝了美国总统旨在促使俄罗斯和乌克兰接受和解方案的努力，该方案是为了结束自2022年开始的俄罗斯全面入侵。特朗普和普京于周日通了电话。

Mr. Trump flew to Beijing last month for a summit and a state banquet hosted by Mr. Xi, the world’s most powerful autocrat. The two talked about trade, Taiwan and the war against Iran. Mr. Trump left gushing about Mr. Xi and said the two superpowers would form a “G2” partnership. “It’s the two great countries,” he told Fox News.

上个月，特朗普飞往北京参加峰会，出席了由全球最有权势的专制领导人习近平主持的峰会和国宴。两人讨论了贸易、台湾以及对伊朗的战争。特朗普离开时对习近平赞不绝口，并表示这两个超级大国将建立“G2”伙伴关系。“这是两个伟大的国家，”他告诉福克斯新闻。

China is Iran’s most powerful partner and the biggest buyer of oil from the country. China has worked in its own interests and acted with caution during the war. It has prodded Iran to continue negotiating with the United States, even when the mediated talks seemed to flag.

中国是伊朗最强大的合作伙伴，也是该国最大的石油买家。在战争期间，中国出于自身利益行事，表现得十分谨慎。即使在调解谈判似乎陷入停滞之际，中国仍敦促伊朗继续与美国进行谈判。

At the same time, some Chinese companies have tried sending weapons to Iran, included shoulder-fired missiles, known as MANPADS, the U.S. State Department said. Last week, the State and Treasury Departments announced sanctions against Chinese-run or Chinese-linked companies that they said were trying to send weapons to Iran.

与此同时，美国国务院表示，一些中国公司试图向伊朗运送武器，包括被称为便携式防空系统的肩射导弹。上周，美国国务院和财政部宣布对一些据称试图向伊朗运送武器的中资或与中国有关联的公司实施制裁。

The State Department list included Armory Alliance, which the agency said is a Belarus-based entity that has “acted as an intermediary between China-based companies and Iran.”

国务院的制裁名单中包括“军械联盟”，称其是一家位于白俄罗斯的实体，“充当了中国公司与伊朗之间的中介”。

The group, it said, “has been involved in facilitating the purchase of hundreds of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and their shipment from China to Iran, including attempting to route the shipments through third-party countries and obfuscating their origin and true end user.”

国务院称，该组织“参与协助购买数百套便携式防空导弹系统(MANPADS)，并将其从中国运往伊朗，包括试图通过第三国安排运输路线，并掩盖其来源和真正的最终用户。”

Mr. Trump has not acknowledged those actions by Chinese companies.

特朗普尚未公开确认中国公司的这些行为。

The moves do not amount to deep support by China for Iran during the war, in contrast to the way China has supported Russia in its yearslong invasion of Ukraine by providing critical supplies to Russian defense companies and weapons makers.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的几年期间，中国通过向俄罗斯国防公司和武器制造商提供关键物资来支持俄罗斯，与其相比，上述公司举动并不等同于中国在战争期间对伊朗提供深度支持。

Like China, Russia has been trying to position itself as a diplomatic back channel in the war. A partner of Iran, it has hosted Iranian diplomats in Moscow and spoken with American officials.

与中国一样，俄罗斯也一直试图在战争中将自己定位为外交秘密渠道。作为伊朗的合作伙伴，它在莫斯科接待了伊朗外交官，并与美国官员进行了交谈。

It has also given Iran targeting information useful for attacks on American bases in the Middle East, U.S. officials said. As with China, Mr. Trump has made no mention recently of this or other anti-American actions on Russia’s part.

美国官员表示，俄罗斯还向伊朗提供了针对中东地区美国军事基地的攻击目标情报。与对待中国一样，特朗普近期也未提及俄罗斯这一举动或其他反美行为。

China recently arrested an American citizen, U Min Zin, on the rare charge of spying, less than three weeks after Mr. Trump met with Mr. Xi in Beijing, The Times reported last Thursday. Around June 3, Mr. Min Zin, who studies Myanmar politics and foreign policy, disappeared in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province. American diplomats visited him in a detention center on Friday. Mr. Trump has not publicly spoken about the arrest.

《纽约时报》上周四报道，就在特朗普在北京与习近平会面不到三周后，中国以罕见的间谍罪名逮捕了美国公民敏辛。6月3日左右，研究缅甸政治和外交政策的敏辛在云南省省会昆明失踪。美国外交官于周五在拘留中心探视了他。特朗普尚未公开谈论此次逮捕事件。

On Monday, Representative John Moolenaar, Republican of Michigan and the chairman of the House Select Committee on China, denounced the arrest.

周一，密歇根州共和党众议员、众议院中共问题特设委员会主席约翰·穆勒纳尔谴责了这一逮捕事件。

“China should immediately release Min Zin, an American citizen it has unjustly detained on absurd charges,” he said. “American companies should take note that this is how China treats innocent Americans and stop any work they are doing that supports China’s military and oppressive surveillance state.”

“中国应立即释放敏辛，他是一名被中国以荒唐罪名不公正拘留的美国公民，”他说。“美国公司应该注意到，这就是中国对待无辜美国人的方式，并应停止任何支持中国军队和压迫性监控国家机器的工作。”

After the war in Iran cut off a fifth of the world’s oil supply, oil prices jumped, at one point reaching nearly $120 a barrel. But they didn’t spike higher, even though some analysts warned ominously of $200 oil, and prices have since come down.

伊朗战争切断了全球五分之一的石油供应后，油价大幅上涨，一度接近每桶120美元。但油价并未进一步飙升——尽管一些分析师曾忧心忡忡地警告油价可能达到每桶200美元——而且此后油价已经有所回落。

At more than $80 a barrel, oil is expensive. But it could be a lot higher.

每桶80多美元的油价已经相当昂贵，但原本可能会更高得多。

One major reason was China.

其中一个重要原因是中国。

The biggest oil buyer in the world, China has kept a lid on prices by rapidly reducing the amount of oil it imports. Before the war began, China imported an average of 11.6 million barrels per day. By May, its purchases of overseas oil had plunged to below eight million barrels a day, its lowest point in over eight years, according to customs data released by Beijing.

作为全球最大的石油买家，中国通过迅速减少石油进口量抑制了油价上涨。战争爆发前，中国日均进口1160万桶原油。而根据中国政府公布的海关数据，到5月份，中国海外原油采购量已跌破每日800万桶，为八年多来的最低水平。

While oil prices hit three-month low on Monday as United States and Iran said they reached a framework agreement for ending the war, analysts said China will still hold considerable sway over the global market.

周一，在美国和伊朗表示已就结束战争达成框架协议后，油价跌至三个月低点。但分析人士表示，中国仍将对全球石油市场拥有巨大影响力。

“The reduction in Chinese oil imports is one of the most important reasons oil prices are not going through the roof right now,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心创始主任杰森·博尔多夫表示：“中国减少石油进口是当前油价没有失控的最重要原因之一。”

The world has lost more than 14 million barrels per day since the United States and Israel began a joint military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, prompting Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz and create the worst oil supply shock in modern history.

自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发起联合军事行动、导致伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡并造成现代史上最严重的石油供应冲击以来，全球每日石油供应减少了1400多万桶。

九江的一家炼油厂，该厂将原油加工成汽油、柴油及其他石油产品。

The economics of energy was upended around the world. Drivers cut back on gasoline purchases. Governments forced blackouts to reduce power demand. Airlines reduced flights to save on jet fuel.

全球能源经济体系因此被彻底打乱。司机减少汽油消费。各国政府通过实施限电来降低电力需求。航空公司削减航班，以节省航空燃油。

China, too, took steps to reduce its demand for imports. It tapped its huge oil reserves, which dwarf those of other countries, while reducing production in refineries and using more coal, according to Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

中国也采取措施减少进口需求。据牛津能源研究所中国能源研究负责人米夏尔·迈丹介绍，该国动用了自己庞大的石油储备——这些储备的规模令其他国家相形见绌，同时降低炼油厂产量并增加煤炭使用量。

“The fact that China, to date, has not needed to tap the market significantly for alternative supplies has limited price increases,” she added.

“迄今为止，中国无需大举入市寻购替代供应，这在很大程度上抑制了油价的上涨，”她补充道。

The country’s transformation in recent years into the world’s first clean energy superpower has also helped.

近年来，中国转型成为全球首个清洁能源超级大国，这一转变也起到了作用。

Another factor putting downward pressure on oil prices over the past three months has been an increase in production by the United States to record levels. Some oil has also still exited the Persian Gulf, in part through land pipelines, tankers willing to pay tolls to Iran and fleets running dark with their transponders turned off to evade detection.

过去三个月对油价构成下行压力的另一个因素是，美国将石油产量提高到了创纪录水平。此外，仍有部分石油通过各种方式离开波斯湾——包括陆上管道、向伊朗支付通行费的油轮，以及关闭应答器以避免被发现的“黑船队”。

But China’s plummeting oil imports have played an outsize role in capping global prices.

但中国石油进口量的大幅下降在抑制全球油价方面发挥了尤为重要的作用。

Much as it did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, China has restricted exports of diesel and gasoline, holding on to more for its own use. Just days after the war began, the government ordered its major state-owned energy companies to temporarily suspend exports, turned to domestic inventories and leaned on a mix of energy for its needs.

一如2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的应对，中国再度限制柴油和汽油出口，将更多燃料留存国内自用。战事爆发后数日，政府即命令主要国有能源企业暂时停止出口，转而动用国内库存，并依托多元能源结构满足自身需求。

China’s oil stockpile has allowed Beijing to wait for oil prices to come back down before starting to buy in the global market. Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at the data firm Kpler, said she expected China to draw down around one million barrels a day over the next two months from its commercial stockpile.

中国的石油储备规模使北京能够静待国际油价回落，再择机重返全球市场采购。数据公司Kpler高级石油分析师徐慕宇表示，预计中国未来两个月内每天将从商业储备中释放约100万桶石油。

At that rate, China could keep tapping reserves until this time next year without starting to draw on its official strategic stockpile, which stands at around 1.23 billion barrels, according to Ms. Xu’s analysis. Beijing would take such a step only reluctantly because it could threaten years of work to establish energy security.

根据徐慕宇的分析，按此速度，中国可以一直动用储备到明年年中，而无需动用其官方战略储备——据估计约为12.3亿桶。北京只有在极不情愿的情况下才会动用这部分战略储备，因为这可能威胁到多年来建立能源安全体系的努力。

At the same time, China has reduced its demand for combustion fuels like gasoline and diesel with its staggering growth in electric vehicles and renewable energy.

与此同时，随着电动汽车和可再生能源的飞速普及，中国对汽油、柴油等燃烧类燃料的需求也在持续减少。

China leads the world in clean energy, operating roughly twice as much wind and solar capacity as the rest of the world combined. It also produces and sells more electric vehicles than the rest of the world combined.

中国是全球清洁能源领导者，其风能和太阳能装机容量大约相当于世界其他国家总和的两倍。中国生产和销售的电动车数量也超过世界其他国家总和。

盐城的风力发电机和太阳能电池板。中国运营的风能和太阳能装机容量约为世界其他地区总和的两倍。

That growth was critical to the plateauing of China’s greenhouse gas emissions last year. Scientists say it is crucial for China, the world’s largest annual emitter, to peak and begin to draw down its planet-warming pollution quickly if the world hopes to keep global warming to relatively safe levels. But that has hardly been the point of Beijing’s exponential expansion of wind, solar and electric vehicles.

这一增长对中国去年温室气体排放趋于平稳至关重要。科学家表示，如果世界希望将全球变暖控制在相对安全的水平，作为全球年度排放量最大的国家，中国必须使其排放达到峰值并开始快速减少其导致地球变暖的污染。但北京大规模扩张风能、太阳能和电动车的主要目的并非气候变化。

“The key reason China has developed renewable energy is not for the sake of the climate, it’s for energy security,” said Mathias Larsen, a senior policy fellow at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute.

“中国发展可再生能源的关键原因不是为了气候，而是为了能源安全，”伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆研究所高级政策研究员马蒂亚斯·拉尔森表示。

“That bet, and the fact that renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels, especially imported gas and oil, means China hasn’t been nearly as exposed to the fossil fuel price spike after the Iran war as it would have been,” Mr. Larsen said.

拉尔森说：“这一战略，加上如今可再生能源成本已经低于化石燃料——尤其是进口天然气和石油，使得中国在伊朗战争后的化石能源价格飙升中受到的冲击远小于原本可能遭受的程度。”

According to the International Energy Agency, electric vehicles alone have cut China’s oil demand significantly, displacing tens of millions of tons of gasoline. Meanwhile, Beijing also has expanded its high-speed rail network. According to China’s Ministry of Railways, 421.7 million people used the railways in April, up 11 percent from a year earlier, a seasonal record.

国际能源署数据显示，仅电动汽车一项就已显著削减了中国的石油需求，替代了数千万吨汽油消耗。与此同时，北京还在持续扩建高铁网络。据中国铁道部的数据，4月份铁路旅客发送量达4.217亿人次，同比增长11%，创下历史同期新高。

中国快速普及电动汽车和可再生能源，降低了对汽油和柴油的需求。

“This has been a yearslong effort that is now providing the basis for China to systematically reduce its oil consumption,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“这是多年努力的成果，而如今它正为中国系统性地减少石油消费提供基础，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕表示。

And yet stockpiles, even China’s, cannot be used indefinitely. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, “no one knows” how long China can maintain its reduced levels of oil imports, said Logan Wright, who leads the China markets research at the Rhodium Group, a consulting firm.

然而，再庞大的储备终究不可无限期动用，即便是中国也不例外。咨询机构荣鼎集团中国市场研究主管洛根·赖特表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，“没有人知道”中国能够维持当前低进口水平多长时间。

“It’s not a year, and it’s probably not six months, even. There will be a return,” he said. When that happens, he added, it will be “a signal that prices are likely headed back up.”

他说：“肯定不是一年，甚至很可能连六个月都撑不到。最终还是会回归市场采购。”他补充道，一旦这种情况发生，“那将是油价可能重新上涨的信号。”

He stays up late, phoning lawyers and lawmakers, while posting up to 150 times a night on Truth Social. His mornings involve calls with world leaders about the war in the Middle East, or talks with landscapers about replanting a bothersome tree. When he arrives in the Oval Office, his unstructured days unfold like a time-lapse video, with people zipping around him as he stays seated at the center of the frame.

他熬夜到很晚，给律师和议员打电话，同时每晚在Truth Social上发布多达150条帖子。他的早晨包括与世界领导人就中东战争进行通话，或者与景观美化师讨论重新种植一棵令人烦恼的树。当他到达椭圆形办公室时，他那缺乏规律作息的生活就像一段延时摄影视频般展开，人们在他身边穿梭忙碌，他则一直坐在画面的中心。

As President Trump turns 80 on Sunday, he is so intent on projecting an image of relentless energy that he has installed a massive, mixed martial arts octagon on the South Lawn to mark the occasion. After watching the fight, Mr. Trump will depart Washington in the middle of the night and cross an ocean for a diplomatic summit in France. It is a schedule that seems devised to ward off questions about age and stamina as he begins his ninth decade.

周日迎来80岁生日的特朗普总统急于投射出一种精力充沛的形象，以至于他在南草坪上安装了一个巨大的综合格斗八角笼来纪念这一时刻。观看完比赛后，特朗普将在半夜离开华盛顿，跨越大洋前往法国参加外交峰会。这一日程安排的目的似乎是打消他进入人生第九个十年而产生了有关年龄和体能的疑虑。

But even for a president known for imposing his own reality on every situation, Mr. Trump is facing scrutiny over his age that has grown more intense with each passing year. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in February showed that nearly six in 10 Americans think Mr. Trump is growing more erratic.

但即使是素来将自己的现实强加于一切的特朗普，也要面对年龄问题引来的越来越多的审视。路透社与益普索在2月进行的一项民意调查显示，近六成的美国人认为特朗普正变得越来越反复无常。

On Monday, Mr. Trump appeared to doze off during a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden. That episode prompted such intense speculation that James Dolan, a prominent ally and the team’s owner, felt compelled to weigh in publicly, saying the president “was very much awake.”

上周一，特朗普在麦迪逊广场花园观看纽约尼克斯队的比赛时似乎打了个盹。由此引发了如此强烈的猜测，以至于他的重要盟友、尼克斯队老板詹姆斯·多兰感到有必要公开表态，称总统“当时非常清醒”。

On June 4, during an hourlong appearance in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump leaned to the side in his chair, closing his eyes for a few seconds as Lee Zeldin, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, spoke about the importance of coal.

6月4日，在椭圆形办公室一场长达一小时的活动中，当环境保护局局长李·泽尔丁谈到煤炭的重要性时，特朗普在他的椅子上向一侧倾斜，并闭上了眼睛几秒钟。

6月4日，特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室开会时的情景。他的幕僚称，他经常闭着眼睛听人讲话。

Earlier this month, legions of online observers speculated, as they had before, that Mr. Trump was ailing when his public schedule contained no public events for nearly a week, a streak that began just after a physical exam at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. Three days after that evaluation was completed, the president’s physician, Dr. Sean P. Barbabella, declared in a summary that the 79-year-old Mr. Trump “remains in excellent health, demonstrating strong cardiac, pulmonary, neurological and overall physical function.”

本月早些时候，许多网络观察人士猜测——他们以前也有过这样的猜测——特朗普生病了，因为他的公开日程表上有将近一周的时间没有安排公开活动，这一连串的空白始于他在沃尔特·里德国家军事医疗中心进行身体检查之后不久。在该评估完成三天后，总统的医生肖恩·P·巴尔巴贝拉博士在一份摘要中宣布，79岁的特朗普“身体依然非常健康，展现出强大的心、肺、神经系统以及整体身体功能”。

So the oldest president ever to be inaugurated and his advisers spend a lot of time hitting back at people who have drawn a different set of conclusions about his health based on what they believe they can plainly see.

因此，这位有史以来就职时年龄最大的总统和他的顾问们花费了大量时间来反击对他的健康状况有不同看法的人，而这些人认为他们指出的问题有目共睹。

This week, senior White House officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk about Mr. Trump’s health, said that when the president appears to slump or lean over at his desk in the Oval Office, as he did during an event earlier this month, he is doing it to lean closer to better hear someone speaking. (He leaned away from Mr. Zeldin and closed his eyes during the event on June 4th.)

本周，在不具名条件下对特朗普健康状况发表评论的白宫高级官员表示，当总统在椭圆形办公室的办公桌前显得瘫坐或倾斜时——就像他在本月早些时候的一场活动中所做的那样——他是为了凑得更近以便更好地听清别人的发言。（在6月4日的活动中，他的身体是倒向远离泽尔丁的方向，并闭上了眼睛。）

Mr. Trump’s hand is frequently bruised and bandaged, but the White House officials said that was from all of the handshaking he likes to do. And he is not sleeping during public events, like the game at Madison Square Garden. He is just looking down, they said, or actively listening with his eyes closed. Other times, they believe he is the victim of selective editing or unflattering camera angles.

特朗普的手经常出现瘀伤并贴着创可贴，但白宫官员表示，那是由于他喜欢握手造成的。并且他并没有在公开活动中睡觉，比如在麦迪逊广场花园的那场比赛中。他们说，他只是在向下看，或者是在闭着眼睛积极倾听。还有一些时候，他们认为是处心积虑的剪辑或不佳的摄像机角度害了他。

“The White House doctors are among the most elite physicians in the world, and they have released multiple comprehensive reports confirming President Trump is in excellent health and fully fit to carry out all duties of commander in chief,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement. “The president proves this himself every single day, taking nonstop questions from a hostile press corps and maintaining a relentless schedule.”

“白宫的医生是世界上最顶尖的医生，他们已经发布了多份全面的报告，证实特朗普总统身体非常健康，完全有能力履行总司令的所有职责，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。“总统每天都在亲身证明这一点，他不停地回答怀有敌意的记者团提出的问题，并维持着不间断的日程安排。”

Still, Mr. Trump, like any president or medical patient, only discloses what he wants the public to know. His physicians have evaded questions about his health for years, including after a gunman’s bullet grazed his ear in Butler, Pa., and when he was sick with Covid in 2020. Presidents are not legally required to share their most sensitive health information with the public, and the summaries they do share are in keeping with modern tradition rather than obligation.

尽管如此，特朗普就像任何一位总统或医疗患者一样，只透露他希望公众知道的信息。他的医生们多年来一直回避关于他健康的问题，包括在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒一名枪手的子弹擦伤他的耳朵之后，以及当他在2020年患上新冠的时候。法律并没有要求总统必须向公众分享他们最敏感的健康信息，他们所分享的摘要更多是依循现代的习惯而非义务。

在上周四的椭圆形办公室会议上，特朗普左手上贴了一张创可贴。政府官员将其手上频繁出现的淤青归因于他经常跟人握手。

Some White Houses have been more aggressive than others at obscuring the truth of an aging president’s condition. As President Joseph R. Biden Jr. physically declined, his aides went to great lengths to obscure the signs of his aging. No one in Mr. Biden’s inner circle discouraged him from trying to run for the presidency again, despite indications that he was growing more frail.

相比之下，有几届政府在掩盖年迈总统状况的真相方面采取了更激进的做法。随着小约瑟夫·R·拜登总统身体每况愈下，他的助手们花了大量精力掩盖他的衰老。尽管有迹象表明拜登正变得更加虚弱，但他的核心圈子中没有人劝阻他不要再次竞选总统。

As he ages, Mr. Trump has taken a different approach. He lets the cameras pick up his slumps, swollen ankles and bandaged hand. He continues to take a tall stairway wheeled up to Air Force One, often navigating the stairs carefully. He continues to appear before the news media, fielding questions from friendlier faces and lashing out at journalists who ask him questions he perceives as unflattering.

随着年龄增长，特朗普采取了不同的方法。他任由摄像机捕捉到他的瘫坐、肿胀的脚踝和贴了创可贴的手。他继续使用推到空军一号旁的登机梯，在阶梯上攀登时常常显得小心翼翼。他继续出现在新闻媒体面前，回答那些看上去面善一些的人的提问，并对那些提出他认为不讨喜问题的记者进行猛烈抨击。

More often than not, he meanders far beyond the topic he has appeared before reporters to discuss.

很多时候，他的发言会远远偏离他出现在记者面前原本要讨论的主题。

“These are the strongest job numbers of the entire administration so far, and that’s during this conflict, on top of it. So it’s great. And, you know, we have a thing. We have a problem in this country, because it used to be, if you’re — I’m a little older than a couple of you, but I don’t feel old. I feel the same as I did 50 years ago. It’s crazy. Mr. Senator. We got a great Senator right here, Ron, but I do feel the same. But — but in the old days, you know, if you had good job numbers, like great job numbers like they announced today, the stock market goes up. Today, everything is crazy,” Mr. Trump said to a group of supporters in Wisconsin earlier this month, slipping an aside about his age into a monologue on other topics, including the U.S. war in Iran, his thoughts about the stock market, and a greeting for Senator Ron Johnson, Republican of Wisconsin.

“这是整个政府迄今为止最强劲的就业数据，而且是在这场冲突期间取得的，这更是不容易。所以这太棒了。而且，你知道，我们有一件事。我们在本国面临着一个问题，因为过去，如果你是——我比你们中的几个人稍微年长一点，但我并不觉得老。我觉得和50年前一模一样。太疯狂了。参议员先生。我们这里有一位伟大的参议员，罗恩，但我确实感觉一模一样。但是——但在过去，你知道，如果你有良好的就业数据，就像他们今天宣布的伟大就业数据一样，股市就会上涨。如今一切都疯了，”特朗普本月早些时候在威斯康星州对一群支持者说，他在一段关于其他话题的独白中插入了关于自己年龄的题外话，其中包括美国在伊朗的战争、他对股市的看法，以及向威斯康星州共和党参议员罗恩·约翰逊致意。

A call-heavy schedule

日程安排包括大量电话通话

Mr. Trump’s public appearances are still limited compared with his first term, with most events falling between noon and 4 p.m., according to a recent analysis of his public schedule.

根据最近对其公开日程的一项分析，与他的第一任期相比，特朗普的公开露面依然有限，大多数活动都落在中午到下午4点之间。

According to several people with knowledge of his schedule and habits, Mr. Trump gets somewhere between four and five hours of sleep a night. His late-night Truth Social sprees are conducted either by the president or by an aide, Natalie Harp, who has access to his account and shares flurries of posts with his approval.

据几位了解其日程和习惯的人士透露，特朗普每晚有大约四到五个小时的睡眠时间。他在Truth Social上的深夜连环发文要么由总统本人亲自进行，要么由能使用其账号并在得到他批准后分享连串动态的助手娜塔莉·哈普协助完成。

The president heads to the Oval Office between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m., but sometimes arrives as late as 11 a.m. He often starts his workdays on the phone in the White House residence before heading downstairs. Once he is in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump’s appointments often run long or bleed into each other, with aides and visitors staying for unrelated meetings.

总统在上午9点到10点之间前往椭圆形办公室，但有时也会迟至上午11点到达。在下楼之前，他经常在白宫住所内通过电话开始他的工作日。一旦他进入椭圆形办公室，特朗普的预约会面经常会拖延很长时间或者互相重叠，助手和访客们会留下来参加不相关的会议。

In response to follow-up questions about the president’s most recent health exam and about Mr. Trump’s whereabouts during the weeklong period when he was out of public view, the White House provided The Times with a 15-page schedule of the president’s activities, many of which did not appear on his official schedule, from May 27 through June 10.

为了回应关于总统最近一次健康检查以及特朗普在淡出公众视线的那一周行踪的后续问题，白宫向时报提供了一份长达15页的总统活动日程表，其中许多活动并未出现在他5月27日至6月10日的官方日程表上。

The document reveals a White House where Mr. Trump’s days often unfold in an unstructured cascade of phone calls during and between scheduled meetings and unscheduled ones. On the morning of May 27, the day after his physical, the president participated in eight phone calls, with the earliest at 7:15 a.m., before participating in a briefing to prepare for a cabinet meeting.

透过这份文件可以看到，在如今的白宫里，特朗普的一天，往往是在各种计划内、计划外的会议之间及期间插入一连串无条理的电话通话。在5月27日早晨，即他进行体检的次日，总统在参加准备内阁会议的简报会之前，参与了八次电话通话，最早的一通在早晨7点15分。

今年1月的一次采访期间，特朗普接听了哥伦比亚总统古斯塔沃·佩特罗打来的电话。

His afternoon included seven more meetings, including one about his White House ballroom project that ran for nearly two hours. He participated in three more calls, two of which were about Iran negotiations.

他的下午包括另外七场会议，其中一场关于他的白宫宴会厅项目的会议持续了近两个小时。他参与了另外三次通话，其中两次是关于伊朗谈判的。

Several of Mr. Trump’s allies who have spent time with him lately at the White House, who were granted anonymity to describe their interactions with the president, said that he is more or less the same person he used to be, without any signs of diminished faculties. In one meeting, Mr. Trump forgot someone’s name. One recent Oval Office guest noted that in another meeting, Mr. Trump seemed more tired than usual, which that person attributed to his night-owl tendencies and late-night posting sessions catching up with him as he ages.

几位最近在白宫与特朗普共处过并获准不具名描述与总统互动的盟友表示，他与过去那个特朗普或多或少是一样的，没有任何智力衰退的迹象。在一次会议中，特朗普忘记了某个人的名字。最近的一位椭圆形办公室访客注意到，在另一场会议中，特朗普显得比平时更累，此人将其归结为他经常熬夜，并且习惯于深夜发布动态，随着他年龄增长，这些行为会带来的负面影响。

Defenders say that Mr. Trump has not lost a step, largely because he still takes questions from reporters.

辩护者们表示特朗普并没有出现退化，这很大程度上是因为他仍然回答记者的问题。

“He’s not shying away from somebody throwing a fastball at him,” said Stephen K. Bannon, the pro-Trump podcaster and former White House aide. Mr. Bannon said that the president has grown more energetic as the pressure around him has grown, particularly as he seeks to end the war in Iran.

“他并没有躲闪别人掷给他的快速球，”支持特朗普的播客主持人、前白宫助手斯蒂芬·K·班农表示。班农表示，随着他周围的压力增大，特别是当他寻求结束在伊朗的战争时，总统变得更有活力。

“History seems to have sped up, and he seems to be speeding up with it,” he said.

“历史似乎已经加速了，而他似乎也在随之加速，”他说。

Medical questions

医疗问题

Late on a Friday evening two weeks ago, Mr. Trump’s physician released a summary of the president’s latest Walter Reed exam. The president had last visited the medical center in October for what his aides said was a semiannual checkup after a visit in April 2025.

两周前的一个周五深夜，特朗普的医生发布了总统最近一次沃尔特·里德检查的摘要。总统上一次访问该医疗中心是在去年10月，他的助手称这是继2025年4月之后的一次半年例行体检。

In his latest report, Dr. Barbabella wrote that the president had been evaluated by a team of 22 medical professionals, without noting their specialties. The president had an echocardiogram and an ultrasound of the heart, after increased testing of his cardiovascular system last year and a diagnosis of chronic venous insufficiency, a condition that occurs when veins have trouble moving blood back to the heart. Mr. Trump has taken two medications to lower his LDL cholesterol levels.

在他的最新报告中，巴尔巴贝拉写道，总统已经接受了一个由22名医疗专业人员组成的团队的评估，但未注明他们的专业领域。在去年增加了对其心血管系统的测试并诊断出慢性静脉功能不全（这是一种由于静脉难以将血液运回心脏而发生的疾病）之后，总统接受了超声心动图和心脏超声检查。特朗普服用了两种药物来降低他的低密度脂蛋白胆固醇水平。

Several cardiologists interviewed for this article said that it was encouraging to see that the president had managed his cholesterol levels and had reported a blood pressure within healthy range. But they questioned the use of artificial intelligence to provide an evaluation of Mr. Trump’s cardiac age, which Dr. Barbabella assessed as 14 years younger than the president’s actual age.

接受本文采访的几位心脏病专家表示，总统控制了自己的胆固醇水平并报告了处于健康范围内的血压，这令人欣慰。但他们对使用人工智能来提供特朗普的心脏年龄评估提出了质疑，巴尔巴贝拉得出的评估是比总统的实际年龄小14岁。

“There is no tool for using A.I. to make that kind of a statement that is accepted in the cardiology community,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist who studies the science of aging. “It hasn’t been validated to a point where it could be used for biological age versus chronological age.”

“在心脏病学界，并没有任何公认的工具可以使用人工智能做出那种声明，”研究衰老科学的心脏病专家埃里克·托波尔博士表示。“它还没有被证实到可以用于生理年龄与实际年龄对比的程度。”

Dr. Topol also said that a CT angiogram, which checks for blocked arteries in the heart, turning back a clear reading was “very unusual” for a 79-year-old. In 2018, the White House physician at the time, Dr. Ronny Jackson, said that Mr. Trump had a calcium score of 133, indicating plaque in his arteries but at a level fairly common for a man of his age.

托波尔还表示，一项用于检查心脏动脉阻塞情况的CT血管造影显示结果正常，这对于一个79岁的人来说是“非常罕见的”。2018年，时任白宫医生罗尼·杰克逊博士表示，特朗普的钙化评分为133，表明他的动脉中有斑块，但处于他这个年龄段男性中相当常见的水平。

“The doctors deserve praise and he deserves praise because of managing his cholesterol,” Dr. Topol said. But he added that there were several areas of the report that lacked detail about the condition of Mr. Trump’s arteries. “It’s possible he has no buildup, but that should be specifically presented,” Dr. Topol said.

“医生们值得赞扬，他也值得赞扬，因为他管理好了自己的胆固醇，”托波尔说。但他补充说，报告中有几个部分缺乏关于特朗普动脉状况的详细细节。“有可能他没有任何斑块积聚，但这应该具体地呈现出来，”托波尔说。

In a lengthy interview with The Times in January in which he fielded questions for hours on topics ranging from foreign policy to his health, Mr. Trump said that he had never been diagnosed with heart disease. He said that he had never had a heart attack.

在1月接受时报一次漫长的采访中，他花几个小时回答了从外交政策到其健康等各领域的问题，特朗普表示自己从未被诊断出患有心脏病。他说自己从未有过心梗。

And Mr. Trump, who has gained 14 pounds since his last physical, according to Dr. Barbabella’s summary, said at the time that he had never used a GLP-1 drug for weight loss.

并且，根据巴尔巴贝拉的摘要，体重比上一次体检增加了14磅（约合6.3公斤）的特朗普在当时表示，他从未出于减肥目的使用过GLP-1类药物。

Mr. Trump, who has called journalists seditious and treasonous for asking questions about his health, said that he attacked them because he had “gone out of my way to take physical exams more than anybody.

曾因记者询问健康问题而称其煽动叛乱和叛国的特朗普在当时表示，他之所以攻击他们，是因为他“比任何人都积极主动地接受身体检查”。

“I just feel it’s important, because I think that people that are president ideally should be in good health, and they should be good cognitively,” he added.

“我只是觉得这很重要，因为我认为理想情况下，担任总统的人应该身体健康，并且他们应该认知良好，”他补充说。

President Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, both resist the idea that ostensibly weaker powers fought them to a stalemate, with the two leaders leaning on negotiations to win the capitulation that they failed to secure in battle.

特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京都不愿承认，看似更弱小的对手将他们拖入了僵局。这两位领导人都试图通过谈判获得他们未能在战场上赢得的屈服。

Iran and Ukraine have pushed back robustly against this “might makes right” mentality, with top officials adopting an even more defiant tone in recent days.

伊朗和乌克兰则强硬抵制这种“强权即公理”的思维方式，两国高层官员近期的语气甚至更为强硬。

In an open letter to Mr. Putin this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine derided Mr. Putin for clinging to power as he aged. “You did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine, and you did not foresee that things would go this far,” Mr. Zelensky wrote.

在本月致普京的一封公开信中，乌克兰总统泽连斯基嘲讽普京年事渐高却仍恋栈不去。泽连斯基写道：“你没有预料到乌克兰会进行全面抵抗，你也没有预见到事情会发展到这个地步。”

After Iran unleashed a missile barrage against Israel last week in retaliation for attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament and Iran’s top negotiator, threatened more. “Until there is a sincere commitment to restoring trust, Iran’s response will not change,” he wrote on X.

在伊朗上周为报复黎巴嫩真主党遭袭向以色列发射多枚导弹之后，伊朗议会议长、首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫发出了进一步威胁。他在X平台上写道：“除非各方真心诚意致力于恢复互信，否则伊朗的回应不会改变。”

空袭警报响起后，以色列民众躲避来袭的伊朗导弹，上周摄于拉马特甘。

Their recalcitrance reflects the reality of two wars in stasis, with a profound lack of trust all around stymying progress.

他们这种不妥协的态度反映了两场战争陷入僵局的现实，各方之间严重缺乏信任，阻碍了局势的推进。

Talks to find peace in Ukraine hit an impasse right before the Iran war started, with Ukraine demanding more robust security guarantees for ceding territory than Russia was willing to accept. Diplomacy has mostly produced prisoner swaps between the sides. The United States, once trying to play the main mediator, has shifted its focus to Iran.

在伊朗战争爆发前夕，乌克兰和平谈判已陷入僵局。乌克兰方面要求，若要以放弃领土为代价，必须获得比俄罗斯愿意接受的更为强有力的安全保障。迄今为止，外交努力主要只促成了双方交换战俘。曾试图充当主要调解人的美国如今已将注意力转向伊朗问题。

American and Iranian officials now say a peace deal with Iran could be at hand. But it appears that it will initially consist of a framework for negotiations that will push the thorniest issues, like Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, down the road. It is expected to allow for at least the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

美伊官员目前均表示，与伊朗的和平协议可能即将达成。但初步看来，协议可能首先是一个谈判框架，将伊朗核计划、解除制裁等最棘手的问题留待以后解决。预计该协议至少将允许暂时重开霍尔木兹海峡的航运。

“Both conflicts have produced a similar outcome: a weaker power has trapped a stronger one in a costly confrontation,” Fiona Hill, who ran Russian and European affairs at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, wrote in a policy paper for the Brookings Institution this week. “Like Putin, Trump did not have a plan for what would happen next.”

“两场冲突产生了相似的结果：一个较弱的国家将一个较强的国家拖入了一场代价高昂的对抗，”曾在特朗普首届政府担任国家安全委员会俄罗斯与欧洲事务主任的菲奥娜·希尔在本周为布鲁金斯学会撰写的一篇政策论文中写道。“和普京一样，特朗普也没有为接下来会发生什么做好计划。”

The root of the issue is that both presidents sparked wars with limited understanding of the opposing side, Ms. Hill said in an interview. “Both projected their own centralized views of their own roles onto Iran and Ukraine, so they thought if they could decapitate the system it would fall,” she said.

希尔在接受采访时表示，问题的根源在于，两位总统在对对方缺乏深入了解的情况下就贸然挑起战争。“他们都将自己高度集中的权力观投射到伊朗和乌克兰身上，认为只要能够将体系斩首，它就会崩溃。”

Mr. Putin did not anticipate fierce Ukrainian resistance, for example; Mr. Trump ignored admonitions that Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz, and appeared to underestimate Iran’s capacity to retaliate and inflict damage on America’s allies in the region. Nor did the Iranian people rise up against their authoritarian leaders, as Israel and the United States had urged them to do.

例如，普京没有预料到乌克兰会进行顽强抵抗；特朗普则无视了有关伊朗可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡的警告，而且似乎低估了伊朗实施报复并对美国地区盟友造成损害的能力。伊朗人民也没有像以色列和美国所敦促的那样起来反抗他们的威权领导人。

While the bombing campaigns of the United States and Russia have had devastating effects, analysts noted, air power alone has not proved decisive.

分析人士指出，尽管美国和俄罗斯的轰炸行动产生了毁灭性影响，但单靠空中力量始终未能取得决定性胜利。

乌克兰某地，乌克兰士兵准备向俄罗斯境内的目标发射“龙”式无人机，摄于上月。

“Although Russia’s aggressive invasion of its neighbor differs from Washington’s goal of reining in Iran’s expansionist threat, both states are finding it equally hard to align their end goals with the means available to achieve them,” James F. Jeffrey, a fellow at the Washington Institute and a former Middle East envoy, wrote in Foreign Affairs.

“尽管俄罗斯侵略邻国与华盛顿遏制伊朗扩张性威胁的目标性质迥异，两国却同样难以将各自的终极目标与手中可用的手段有效对接，”华盛顿研究所研究员、前中东特使詹姆斯·杰弗里在《外交事务》杂志上写道。

Ukraine managed to halt Russian troop advances in part by producing next-generation drones, changing the face of modern warfare, while the United States has shown no desire to deploy troops inside Iran.

乌克兰通过研发新一代无人机成功遏制了俄军的推进，并改变了现代战争的面貌；美国则完全没有表现出向伊朗境内部署地面部队的意愿。

Lack of compromise has prolonged both wars. The United States and Russia have presented extensive demands to the other side, but the list of what their adversaries get in return is short. Mr. Putin, in particular, has not budged from his maximalist demands, which include taking land his army has been unable to capture.

缺乏妥协延长了这两场战争。美国和俄罗斯都向对方提出了长长的要求清单，但给予对手的回报却很少。尤其是普京，他从未放弃自己的最大化要求，其中包括索取俄军至今未能占领的土地。

Mr. Trump has also repeatedly revised terms already agreed with the mediators, frustrating the Iranians.

特朗普也多次推翻与调解方已达成的条款，令伊朗不满。

The United States harmed the process “with contradictory messages, frequent changes in positions and demands, as well as repeated violations of the cease-fire,” Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said last week after fighting sputtered back to life.

伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃上周在战火重新燃起后表示，“通过相互矛盾的信息、频繁改变立场和要求，以及一再违反停火协议”，美国损害了谈判进程。

Each revision erodes a little more of Iran’s confidence that Mr. Trump will stick to an eventual deal, analysts said.

分析人士称，每一次反复都进一步蚕食伊朗对特朗普会遵守最终协议的信心。

Yet Mr. Trump has repeatedly declared that a resolution is just around the corner, as he did Thursday after calling off yet another offensive.

特朗普却一再宣称解决方案已经近在眼前。在上周四取消了又一次军事行动后，他再次作出了这样的表态。

伊朗民众在毁于袭击的公寓楼前，4月摄于卡拉季。

None of the shifting set of goals that he predicted at the beginning of the conflict — which he said would take only a few weeks to achieve — has been realized.

他在冲突开始时预测的各种不断变化的目标——他曾说只需几周就能实现——没有一个实现。

The same is true for Mr. Putin. Invading Ukraine, the Kremlin had expected it would quickly seize Kyiv, install a pliant regime and be welcomed by the Ukrainian people. That was more than four years ago. Despite a death toll estimated at more than 350,000 soldiers, Moscow has not fully occupied three of the four Ukrainian provinces that it now claims.

普京也是如此。入侵乌克兰时，克里姆林宫原本预计能够迅速攻克基辅，扶植一个傀儡政权，并受到乌克兰民众欢迎。那已经是四年多以前的事了。尽管已有超过35万名士兵死亡，莫斯科至今仍未完全占领它如今声称拥有主权的四个乌克兰州中的三个。

Asked last week about Mr. Zelensky’s latest overture for peace, Mr. Putin declared that “military operations” — he still avoids calling it a war — “will end when we achieve our goals.”

上周被问及泽连斯基最新的和平提议时，普京宣称，“军事行动将在我们实现目标后结束。”他仍然避免称此为战争。

In reality, both Washington and Moscow “have been defeated in the pursuit of the goals that they had,” Ms. Hill said.

然而现实是，华盛顿和莫斯科“都在追求各自目标的过程中遭遇了失败”，希尔表示。

The circumstances of the two wars do not entirely match. Ukraine had not threatened Russia, while Iran had confronted the United States ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution through terrorist attacks, proxy wars and other assaults on American interests.

两场战争的背景并不完全相同。乌克兰此前并未威胁俄罗斯，而伊朗自1979年伊斯兰革命以来一直通过恐怖袭击、代理人战争以及其他针对美国利益的行动持续与美国对抗。

The United States did not have territorial designs on Iran, while Mr. Putin has occupied almost 20 percent of Ukraine. Militarily, Russia began destabilizing Ukraine by annexing Crimea and fueling a separatist movement starting in 2014. The United States largely avoided a war with Iran until its 12-day bombing campaign last June undertaken with Israel.

美国并无占领伊朗领土的野心，普京却已吞并乌克兰近20%的领土。在军事层面，俄罗斯早在2014年便通过吞并克里米亚、扶植分裂主义运动开始破坏乌克兰的稳定。而美国在很大程度上避免与伊朗正面开战，直到去年6月与以色列一起进行了为期12天的轰炸行动。

乌克兰一条覆盖了防无人机网的马路，1月摄于康斯坦丁尼夫卡。

Iran is more inclined than Ukraine to make a deal because it faces more dire economic conditions and receives almost no outside support, said Vali R. Nasr, a professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

约翰斯·霍普金斯大学国际问题高级研究学院国际事务教授瓦利·纳斯尔表示，伊朗比乌克兰更倾向于达成协议，因为它面临更严峻的经济状况，并且几乎得不到外部支持。

At the same time, he added, the United States and Israel failed in their strategic objectives in two consecutive wars, in June and February. “So the Iranians want the United States, basically, to come to the table with the realization that they’re not defeated, and the military conquest of Iran is not in the cards,” he said.

但与此同时，他补充道，美国和以色列在今年2月和6月连续两场战争中都未能实现战略目标。“因此，伊朗人希望美国基本上能带着‘他们没有被打败，军事征服伊朗是不可能的’这种认识来到谈判桌前。”

The main American and Israeli priority is for Iran to abandon its nuclear program, including surrendering its highly enriched uranium, so it can never develop a nuclear weapon.

美国和以色列的主要优先事项是伊朗放弃核计划，包括交出高浓缩铀，从而永久封堵其发展核武器的可能性。

Iran has resisted making those concessions, and any resolution on that issue could come months or years down the road. Iran is also asking for longtime American economic sanctions lifted, along with the current naval blockade, and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets.

伊朗一直拒绝做出这些让步，关于这个问题的任何解决方案都可能需要数月或数年的时间。伊朗还要求解除美国的长期经济制裁以及当前的海上封锁，并放行240亿美元的冻结资产。

Iran wants to use the framework under discussion to test whether Mr. Trump will really implement an accord, Mr. Nasr said.

纳斯尔表示，伊朗希望利用正在讨论的框架来检验特朗普是否会真正履行协议。

“They want to see whether he actually will lift the blockade,” he said. “They want to see whether he can maintain cease-fire in Lebanon, and they want to see whether he will deliver some of their money.” If all that happens, they would be willing to negotiate something bigger, he added.

“他们想看看他是否真的会解除封锁，”他说。“他们想看看他能否维持黎巴嫩的停火，还想看看他能否兑现还给他们部分资金的承诺。”他补充说，如果所有这些都实现了，他们才愿意就更大的问题进行谈判。

本月，黎巴嫩纳巴提耶附近，以色列的一次空袭击中了博福特城堡前的区域。

In Ukraine, Russia wants at a minimum that Ukraine withdraw from the strategically important sliver of Donetsk province from which it has been unable to dislodge them, with Russia even losing some ground in recent weeks.

在乌克兰问题上，俄罗斯至少希望乌克兰撤出顿涅茨克州具有重要战略价值的一小块区域——俄罗斯一直未能将乌军从那里赶走，最近几周甚至失去了一些地盘。

In both wars, Mr. Trump has dented American credibility, Ms. Hill said. He failed to fulfill his vow to negotiate a peace settlement in Ukraine while undermining NATO in the process, and he did not achieve his main goals in Iran, or protect Gulf allies from Iranian retaliation.

希尔表示，在这两场战争中，特朗普都削弱了美国的信誉。他既未兑现迅速结束乌克兰战争的承诺，还在此过程中削弱了北约；同时也未能在伊朗实现他的主要目标，或保护海湾盟友免遭伊朗报复。

Moscow and Kyiv had each hoped that Mr. Trump might persuade the other to agree to terms, but now both sides know that they need to look elsewhere for a solution, she said. Mr. Zelensky wrote as much in his letter to Mr. Putin.

她说，莫斯科和基辅原本都希望特朗普能够说服对方接受条件，但如今双方都明白，必须另寻解决办法。泽连斯基在给普京的信中也表达了类似的意思。

Ultimately, analysts said, the lack of a resolution makes both the United States and Russia appear weak, and could hasten a more decentralized international order.

分析人士认为，最终，持续无法解决的僵局会让美国和俄罗斯都显得软弱，并可能加速一个更加分散化的国际秩序的到来。

“Deadlock in Ukraine discredits Russia as a global military force,” Ms. Hill wrote in her policy paper. “It corrodes Putin’s patina of indestructibility, in the same way that the stalemate in the Persian Gulf undermines the United States and Trump.”

希尔在她的政策论文中写道：“乌克兰战争的僵局削弱了俄罗斯作为全球军事强国的声誉。它侵蚀了普京坚不可摧的光环；波斯湾的僵局则以同样的方式削弱了美国和特朗普。”

In 1940, the imperial regimes of Germany and Japan joined what would be known as the Axis powers, bound by mutual opposition to the United States. They fought a world war, and they lost it, and their populations spent the next 85 years with shrunken militaries and a heavy reliance on their former enemy, America, for security.

1940年，德国和日本的帝国政权加入了后来被称为轴心国的联盟，它们因共同对抗美国而走到了一起。它们打了一场世界大战并战败，接下来的85年里，两国的军事力量被缩减，在安全上严重依赖前敌国美国。

Now, both countries’ wariness of America has resurfaced, alongside heightened fears about a surging world power, China, and an aggressive Russia. Tokyo and Berlin are rushing to rebuild their militaries. And, once again, they are strengthening ties.

如今，两国对美国的警惕感重新浮现，与此同时，对正在崛起的世界大国中国以及具有侵略性的俄罗斯的担忧也在加剧。东京和柏林正急于重建各自的军队。并且，它们正再一次加强联系。

Their cooperation is expected to gather momentum at the meeting of the leaders of the Group of 7 nations in Evian, France, this week. It already includes sharing know-how, technology and weapons, like drones and helicopters, critical to the countries’ respective efforts to rearm.

它们的合作预计将在本周于法国埃维昂举行的七国集团首脑会议上得到更多推动。这种合作此前已经包含了共享专门知识、技术和无人机、直升机等武器，这些对于两国各自重整军备的努力至关重要。

It is hardly an Axis redux. This time, Japan and Germany are banding together from a defensive posture, with Berlin supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia, and Tokyo wary of threats posed by China and North Korea. They are joining other like-minded “middle powers,” like fellow Group of 7 members Britain, Canada and France — their enemies in World War II. And they are casting themselves as champions of international law and institutions that serve as bulwarks against the bullying behaviors of the world’s most powerful countries.

这谈不上轴心国卷土重来。这一次，日本和德国是以防御姿态联合在一起，柏林支持乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的防务，东京则对中国和朝鲜构成的威胁保持警惕。它们正加入其他志同道合的“中等强国”，例如同为七国集团成员的英国、加拿大和法国——这些它们在第二次世界大战中的敌人。并且，它们将自己塑造成国际法和国际机构的捍卫者、抵御世界上最强大国家的霸凌行为的坚固堡垒。

As Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, said in March at a Japanese naval base, nations like Germany and Japan, “who still stand by the rules-based international order, must move even closer together and make clear what we stand for.”

正如德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯今年3月在日本一个海军基地所说，像德国和日本这样“仍然捍卫基于规则的国际秩序”的国家，“必须走得更近，并明确我们所代表的立场。”

德国士兵上周在明斯特训练。第二次世界大战后，反军国主义运动在德国和日本得势，但两国的观点近期发生了转变。

Both Germany and Japan emerged from the devastation of World War II with a focus on rebuilding ravaged cities and stoking economic growth. They allowed the United States and other allies to shoulder much of the burden of keeping their citizens safe.

德国和日本从第二次世界大战的毁灭性破坏中走出，将精力集中在重建被毁坏的城市和刺激经济增长上，将保障本国公民安全的大部分责任交由美国及其他盟友承担。

After Germany split in two, America built large military bases and stationed tens of thousands of troops in West Germany, a frontline outpost in the Cold War with the Soviet Union. The governments of both East and West Germany maintained their own large armies, but after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, the reunified country spent far more on social programs than on defense.

德国一分为二之后，美国在西德建立了大型军事基地并驻扎了数万名士兵，西德是与苏联冷战的前哨。东德和西德政府虽然维持着各自庞大的军队，但在柏林墙倒塌和冷战结束之后，统一后的国家在社会项目上的支出远多于国防。

Postwar Japan adopted an American-imposed Constitution, drafted under Gen. Douglas MacArthur. It forced the Japanese to renounce war and prohibited keeping armed forces except for defensive purposes. That led to the creation of the Self-Defense Forces, which remains the official name for the country’s military.

战后的日本采用了由美国强加的、在道格拉斯·麦克阿瑟将军指导下起草的宪法。它迫使日本放弃战争，并禁止保持武装力量，除非是出于防御目的。这导致了自卫队的建立，这至今仍是该国军队的官方名称。

In the decades after the war, anti-militarist movements gained traction in both countries, promoting the ideals of peace, diplomacy, free trade and cultural exchange.

战后几十年里，反军国主义运动在两国得势，促进了和平、外交、自由贸易和文化交流的理想。

But that sentiment has waned in recent years, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and China’s increasingly assertive military and economic policies under its leader, Xi Jinping.

但这种情绪在最近几年已经淡化，尤其是自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以及中国在其领导人习近平的带领下推行日益强硬的军事和经济政策以来。

President Trump’s threats to abandon security commitments in Europe and his eagerness to strike a trade deal with Mr. Xi accelerated both countries’ pushes toward rearmament.

特朗普威胁要放弃在欧洲的安全承诺，还急于与习近平达成贸易协议，这些都加速了两国迈向重整军备的步伐。

日本陆上自卫队成员本月在御殿场参加一场军事演习。

Thomas Berger, a professor at Boston University who has studied the postwar history of Japan and Germany, said that the two countries were responsible for “perhaps the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century,” a reference to World War II, and that their defeats had “shattered their ideals and beliefs in empire and militarization.”

波士顿大学研究战后日本和德国历史的教授托马斯·贝格尔表示，这两个国家对“也许是20世纪最大的灾难”——指第二次世界大战——负有责任，并且它们的战败“粉碎了它们对帝国和军事化的理想与信念”。

But the recent change in the global security landscape, particularly Mr. Trump’s volatility, has fueled anxiety and urgency for the countries’ relatively new leaders, both of them conservative and defense-minded. “There is this justifiable fear that the United States might sell them out,” Mr. Berger said.

但近期全球安全格局的变化——特别是特朗普的反复无常——加剧了两国上任不久的领导人的焦虑感与紧迫感，这两位领导人都是保守派且具有防务意识。“存在着这种合理的恐惧，即美国可能会出卖它们，”贝格尔说。

Shortly before taking office a year ago, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, led a successful effort to suspend limits on Germany’s government borrowing in order to drastically increase military spending. In a few years, Germany’s military spending could be larger than that of France and Britain — combined.

一年前，不久后将就任德国总理的弗里德里希·默茨领导了一项成功的行动，暂停了对德国政府借贷的限制，以便大幅增加军事支出。在几年内，德国的军事支出可能会超过法国和英国的总和。

Japan commits half as much as Germany, but it is still one of the world’s top spenders on defense, with a budget this year of about $58 billion.

日本投入的资金只有德国的一半，但仍然是全球国防支出最高的国家之一，今年的预算大约为580亿美元。

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a conservative lawmaker, won office last year with nationalist calls to revive the military. She has deployed long-range missiles — capable of reaching China — in southern Japan, and has reversed postwar bans on arms exports.

作为保守派议员的高市早苗去年凭借复兴军队的民族主义呼声赢得了首相职位。她已经在日本南部部署了能够打击到中国的远程导弹，并且推翻了战后对武器出口的禁令。

Both Mr. Merz and Ms. Takaichi have made a point of trying to maintain warm ties with Mr. Trump, but both have also looked beyond Washington, increasingly, for military alliances.

默茨和高市都明确表示要努力与特朗普保持温和的关系，但两人也都越来越多地将目光投向华盛顿之外，以寻求军事联盟。

Japan recently sealed a $6.5 billion deal to supply warships to Australia, and it is in talks with the Philippines and Indonesia about exporting warships. Germany has forged close ties with Ukraine in developing and deploying new weapons and has asked France to help provide it with a nuclear deterrent.

日本近期签署了一项价值65亿美元的协议，以向澳大利亚供应军舰，并且正在与菲律宾和印度尼西亚就出口军舰进行谈判。德国在开发和部署新武器方面已与乌克兰建立了紧密联系，并且已经请求法国协助，提供核威慑力。

China and Russia have accused Ms. Takaichi of seeking to revive World War II-era militarism. But she has said her policies are necessary because Japan faces the “most severe and complex” security environment since that era, citing the threat of China and North Korea.

中国和俄罗斯指责高市试图复辟二战时期的军国主义。但她表示自己的政策是必要的，因为日本面临着自那段时期以来“最严峻且最复杂”的安全环境，并以中国和朝鲜的威胁作为依据。

“No single country can now protect its own peace and security alone,” she said recently. “There is absolutely no change in our commitment to upholding the path we have followed as a peace-loving nation for over 80 years.”

“现在没有任何一个国家能够单独保护自身的和平与安全，”她近期表示。“作为爱好和平的国家，我们对坚持80多年来所遵循道路的承诺绝对没有改变。”

去年11月，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨与日本首相高市早苗在约翰内斯堡举行的二十国集团峰会上。两位任职不久的领导人都有较强的防务危机意识。

The German public has embraced rearmament reluctantly, but faster than the Japanese have.

德国公众虽然对重整军备也存在反感，但接受起来仍比日本快。

Recent surveys suggest a majority of Germans see the world now as more dangerous than it was during the Cold War. They also suggest that two-thirds of the country backs higher spending on the military, even though the German armed forces, which do not enforce a draft, have struggled to persuade young people to enlist.

近期的调查表明，大多数德国人现在认为世界比冷战时期更加危险。调查还表明，该国有三分之二的人支持增加军事支出，尽管不实行征兵制的德国武装部队在说服年轻人参军方面一直面临困难。

In Tokyo this spring, tens of thousands of people protested Ms. Takaichi’s security policies, including the decision to export more weapons and to establish a national intelligence agency. The protesters were concerned that Ms. Takaichi might next seek to scrap Article 9 of the Constitution, which renounces war.

今年春天在东京，数万人抗议高市的安全政策，包括出口更多武器以及建立国家情报机构的决定。抗议者担心高市接下来可能会试图废除宪法第九条，即放弃战争的条款。

Nahoko Hishiyama, 37, who helped organize some protests, said Ms. Takaichi’s “policies are deeply concerning, as they aim to turn Japan into a military power.”

现年37岁的抗议活动组织者菱山南帆子表示，高市的“政策令人深感担忧，因为它们旨在将日本变成一个军事大国”。

Alexandra Sakaki, a scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin who studies Japan, said that rearmament would require further shifts in mind-set in Germany and Japan, especially if officials turn to policies like conscription.

位于柏林的德国国际与安全事务研究所日本研究学者亚历山德拉·萨卡基表示，重整军备将需要德国和日本在思维方式上做出进一步的转变，特别是如果官员们转向类似于征兵制这样的政策。

“They need to think about military and society in a whole different way,” she said. “Will they be ready for combat, will they be ready to fight? Japan and Germany need the public to back that vision.”

“他们需要以一种完全不同的方式来思考军队与社会，”她表示。“他们准备好作战了吗？他们准备好战斗了吗？日本和德国需要公众来支持这一愿景。”

One country has applauded the German and Japanese shifts: the United States.

有一个国家对德国和日本的转变表示赞许：美国。

Mr. Trump has long pushed allies to spend more on their own defense so the U.S. military can focus elsewhere. Meeting last year with Mr. Merz, he welcomed Germany’s spending surge — though not without reservation. In a quip, Mr. Trump noted that a remilitarized Germany might not please the American leaders who defeated Nazi Germany in World War II.

特朗普长期以来一直推动盟国在其自身的防务上增加支出，以便美军能够集中精力于其他地方。去年与默茨会面时，他对德国支出的飙升表示欢迎——尽管并非毫无保留。特朗普打趣说，第二次世界大战中击败纳粹德国的美国领导人们如果看到一个重新军事化的德国，可能会不太高兴。

“I’m not sure that General MacArthur would have said it was positive, you know?” he said.

“我不确定麦克阿瑟将军会说这是好事，是吧？”他说道。

The world is quickly depleting its stores of oil, putting more pressure on President Trump to reach a deal with Iran that would quickly get more fuel flowing out of the Persian Gulf.

全球石油储备正在迅速耗尽，特朗普总统承受的压力与日俱增——他必须尽快与伊朗达成协议，以推动更多燃料从波斯湾流出。

Vast stockpiles of oil, gasoline and other fuels have helped fill the hole in global energy supplies created by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. But those reserves, which companies and governments stash in giant steel storage tanks and underground salt caverns, are running low in some places. This week, U.S. government stockpiles were poised to hit their lowest levels since 1983.

庞大的石油、汽油及其他燃料储备帮助填补了美以对伊战争造成的全球能源供应缺口。但这些储备——无论是企业和政府存放在巨型钢制储油罐中的库存，还是储存在地下盐穴中的战略储备——在一些地区正迅速减少。本周，美国政府的石油储备预计将降至1983年以来最低水平。

That ominous milestone was overshadowed by Mr. Trump’s announcement on Thursday that the United States and Iran were close to striking a peace deal. His statements sent international oil prices below $90 a barrel, well above prewar prices but nowhere near the highs hit earlier in the war.

然而，这一令人不安的里程碑被特朗普上周四宣布美伊接近达成和平协议的消息所掩盖。他的表态推动国际油价跌破每桶90美元——虽然这一价格仍高于战前水平，但已远不及战争初期的高点。

Still, it is far from clear what a truce might entail. Unless the supply of oil and fuels improves — and quickly — consumers around the world may face much higher energy costs.

尽管如此，停战协议究竟会包含哪些内容仍远不明确。除非石油和燃料供应状况得到改善，而且必须尽快改善，否则全球消费者可能面临大幅上涨的能源成本。

There is little consensus about when or where this may come to a head, but energy experts broadly agree that until more oil is able to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway on Iran’s southern coast, the market will remain worrisomely fragile.

对于危机何时以及在哪里达到临界点发，目前并没有明确共识。但能源专家普遍认为，在更多石油能够重新通过伊朗南部海岸狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡之前，全球能源市场都将保持令人担忧的脆弱状态。

“Soon enough, we’ll run out of shock absorbers,” said Antoine Halff, a co-founder of the research firm Kayrros and a former chief oil analyst at the International Energy Agency.

研究机构Kayrros联合创始人、国际能源署前首席石油分析师安托万·哈尔夫表示：“很快，我们就会耗尽所有的缓冲机制。”

注：波斯湾国家包括巴林、伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。石油库存数据包括商业储存和战略储备。来源：Kpler。

The world uses around 100 million barrels of oil every day. Reserves have dwindled especially quickly in places that depend heavily on imports, such as Japan and South Korea. The United States, the world’s biggest oil producer, is also draining its tanks as companies ramp up exports to supply the rest of the world.

全球每天消耗约1亿桶石油。在严重依赖进口的地方，如日本和韩国，储备消耗得尤其迅速。美国虽然是全球最大石油生产国，但随着企业增加出口以供应世界其他地区，国内库存也在不断消耗。

Persian Gulf countries, on the other hand, have been stockpiling, and not by choice. The closure of the strait has meant that most of them can sell much less oil than normal, and so are stuck holding much more fuel. Some have managed to get more vessels through the strait in recent weeks, providing some relief.

另一方面，波斯湾国家却一直在囤积石油，但这并非出于主动选择。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁导致这些国家的石油出口量大幅低于正常水平，由此被迫囤积了大量燃料。不过，最近几周，一些国家已设法让更多油轮通过该海峡，局面获得了一定缓解。

And then there is China. The country has what is widely believed to be the world’s largest cache of oil — roughly a third of all known reserves, according to the research firm Kpler — and appears to have barely touched it. It is possible, Mr. Halff said, that China is tapping underground reserves that are harder to monitor.

还有中国。外界普遍认为中国拥有全球最大的石油储备——根据研究公司Kpler的数据，约占全球已知储备的三分之一——而且似乎几乎没有动用过。哈尔夫表示，中国可能正在动用更难被外界监测到的地下储备。

“China is one of the biggest question marks, the biggest puzzles,” Mr. Halff said.

“中国是最大的未知数，最大的谜团，”哈尔夫说。

来源：标普全球能源。

The picture becomes more troubling when looking at inventories of specific fuels. Stores of gasoline and fuel oil, used for heating, are especially low around the world, particularly for this time of year.

当查看特定燃料的库存时，情况变得更加令人担忧。全球范围内，汽油和用于取暖的燃料油的储备尤其偏低，尤其考虑到当前本应是库存较高的季节。

Still, the world is not yet facing widespread shortages.

不过，目前全球尚未面临大范围的短缺。

“We have less oil in the world, and it is starting in the corners here to show up in end-use markets,” said Rick Joswick, an oil analyst for S&P Global Energy. “But there’s no smoking gun I can point at and say, ‘Aha, these airports are not getting their jet fuel, or these consumers can’t get their gasoline.’”

标普全球能源的石油分析师里克·乔斯维克表示：“全球石油库存确实变少了，而且这种影响已经开始在一些终端市场显现出来。但我还找不到一个明确案例，可以指着某个地方说：‘看，这些机场已经没有航空燃油了，或者这些消费者已经买不到汽油了。’”

来源：美国能源信息署。

In places like the United States, prices at the pump would probably climb long before fuel tanks were depleted, analysts said. Coastal regions like the Northeast and California, which depend on a lot of imported oil and gasoline, are especially vulnerable to price increases.

分析人士表示，在美国这样的国家，加油站油价很可能会在燃料真正耗尽之前大幅上涨。美国东北部和加利福尼亚等沿海地区尤其容易受到冲击，因为这些地区高度依赖进口石油和汽油。

Yet it is very hard to predict when or where fuel supplies might fall low enough for that to happen.

然而，很难预测燃料供应何时或何地会低到足以引发这种情况。

“There are various choke points, and it’s really hard to model which might come first,” said Daniel Sternoff, a senior fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.

“存在多个潜在瓶颈，哪个会最先出问题，真的很难建模分析，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心高级研究员丹尼尔·斯特诺夫说。

To understand why, just look at jet fuel. Early in the war, many analysts and executives worried that some airports in Europe, which buys a lot of jet fuel from the Persian Gulf, might not have enough for planes to take off. Refining companies, which turn oil into fuels, responded to high prices by ramping up jet fuel production while making less gasoline.

要理解这一点，只需看看航空燃油即可。战争初期，许多分析师和企业高管曾担心欧洲部分机场可能面临航空燃油不足的问题，因为欧洲大量依赖来自波斯湾地区的航空燃油供应。对此，炼油企业看到高油价带来的利润空间，大幅提高航空燃油产量，同时减少汽油生产。

注：最低运营库存是标普全球能源对维持能源系统正常运转所需原油量的估算。来源：美国能源信息署、标普全球能源。

U.S. oil reserves are held by businesses or the government. The government supplies, known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or S.P.R., are essentially a last line of defense, available in case of emergencies.

美国的石油储备分为企业库存和政府库存两部分。政府储备被称为战略石油储备，本质上是最后一道防线，用于在紧急情况下向市场提供支持。

The United States is partway through a 172-million-barrel withdrawal, one of its largest ever. That will leave the reserve, a collection of salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, emptier than it has been in almost a half century, soon after the 1970s oil crises, when it was being filled for the first time.

美国目前正在实施1.72亿桶石油的战略储备释放计划，这是其有史以来规模最大的释放行动之一。完成后，这个位于得克萨斯州和路易斯安那州的地下盐穴储备系统将降至近半个世纪以来最低水平，相当于20世纪70年代石油危机后刚开始建立储备时的情形。

来源：美国能源信息署。

There is still plenty of company-owned oil available in the United States and elsewhere. But the depletion of the S.P.R. will leave the federal government with less flexibility to support the market if the United States and Iran fail to complete a deal or shipping remains constrained.

目前，美国以及其他国家的企业库存仍然相当充足。但战略石油储备的大幅下降意味着，如果美国与伊朗最终未能达成协议，或者海运运输继续受限，美国联邦政府未来干预市场、稳定能源供应的灵活性将明显降低。

The United States and Iran reached a cease-fire agreement on Sunday, President Trump said, paving the way for further talks that could ultimately end a monthslong war that has killed thousands and rattled the global economy.

美国总统特朗普表示，美国与伊朗于周日达成停火协议，为进一步的谈判铺平了道路，有望最终结束这场持续数月、已造成数千人死亡并扰乱全球经济的战争。

“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” he said in a post on social media.

他在社交媒体上发贴称：“与伊朗伊斯兰共和国的协议现已完成。祝贺大家！”

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said that Iran and the United States planned to formally sign the agreement on Friday in Geneva, confirming a timeline laid out by Pakistan, a mediator in talks.

伊朗副外长卡扎姆·加里巴巴迪表示，伊美两国计划周五在日内瓦正式签署协议，证实了谈判调解方之一的巴基斯坦此前公布的时间表。

Mr. Trump said that the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the economically vital waterway, and that he had authorized “the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade” on Iranian ports.

特朗普表示，该协议将重新开放具有重要经济意义的水道霍尔木兹海峡，并且他已授权“立即解除美国海军封锁”。

“Ships of the World, start your engines,” he wrote. “Let the oil flow!”

“世界各国的船只，启动引擎，”他写道。“让石油流动起来！”

The text of the agreement was not immediately released. But Mr. Trump’s post aligned with what American and Iranian officials had previously said an initial agreement might contain. The deal would include a 60-day cease-fire, the officials said.

协议内容尚未公布，但特朗普的社交媒体帖子与此前美伊官员透露的初步协议内容基本一致。他们此前曾表示，协议将包括为期60天的停火。

Each side sought to portray the agreement as a diplomatic victory after nearly four months of war. But some of the thorniest issues — including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, and sanctions relief for Tehran — remain unresolved and have been pushed to a further round of negotiations.

在持续近四个月的战争之后，双方都试图将协议描绘成一次外交胜利。但一些最棘手的问题——包括伊朗核计划的未来，以及美国对德黑兰的制裁解除问题——仍未得到解决，已被推至下一轮谈判解决。

The prime minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, said on social media that an “official signing ceremony will take place on Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.”

巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫在社交媒体上表示，“正式签字仪式将于6月19日星期五在瑞士举行。”

An agreement appeared at risk earlier in the day after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut in retaliation for rocket fire from Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group. An angry Mr. Trump said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had shown “no judgment” in ordering those strikes.“We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.

当天早些时候，由于以色列为报复伊朗支持的黎巴嫩激进组织真主党的火箭弹袭击而轰炸了贝鲁特南郊，协议一度面临夭折风险。愤怒的特朗普表示，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令进行这些袭击“毫无判断力”。特朗普在社交媒体上写道：“我们非常接近一项能为该地区带来和平的协议，包括黎巴嫩在内，各方都应保持克制。”

A last-minute flurry of negotiations, led by Qatar, eased the tensions, and the final agreement appeared to come together late in the night Sunday in Tehran.

此后，卡塔尔主导的最后一轮密集谈判缓和了紧张局势，最终协议似乎在周日深夜于德黑兰正式敲定。

But there remain lingering questions.

但仍有一些问题悬而未决。

One concerns the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, over which neither country has shown much willingness to compromise. Officials previously said both sides would hold detailed negotiations over the program, as well as over the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran, during the 60-day cease-fire.

其中一个关键问题是伊朗核计划的命运。在这一问题上，两国都没有表现出太多妥协意愿。官员们此前表示，双方将在60天的停火期内就该计划以及解除美国对伊朗制裁展开详细谈判。

Lebanon may prove to be another stumbling block. Iran wanted any broader peace settlement to require Israel to end its attacks on what is says are Hezbollah targets, which have killed more than 3,500 people. Iran also wants the Israeli military to withdraw from Lebanese territory.

黎巴嫩可能成为另一个绊脚石。伊朗希望任何一份更为全面的和平协议都应该包括色列停止打击其所称的真主党目标。这些袭击已经造成3500多人死亡。同时，伊朗还要求以色列军队撤出黎巴嫩领土。

Israel, which was not directly involved in the U.S.-Iranian negotiations, has said it will continue to attack if Hezbollah strikes its territory.

未直接参与美伊谈判的以色列则表示，一旦真主党再度袭击以色列领土，它将继续采取军事行动。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们正在关注的其他内容：

• Opposition in Israel: Details about the agreement before it was announced surfaced in news media reports, prompting a flood of criticism and discontent from Israelis spanning the country’s political spectrum. Read more ›

• 以色列国内反对声音：在协议正式宣布前，有关内容已通过媒体曝光，引发了以色列各政治派别的强烈批评和不满。阅读详情›

• Markets react: Oil prices fell on Sunday after Mr. Trump said the United States had reached a deal with Iran that would allow the “toll free” passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Futures on the S&P 500 pointed to a modest rise in stocks when U.S. trading resumes on Monday. Read more ›

• 市场反应：在特朗普宣布美国已与伊朗达成协议、允许船只“免费”通过霍尔兹木兹海峡后，国际油价周日应声下跌。标普500指数期货显示，美国股市周一开盘时可能小幅上涨。阅读详情›

• Lebanon: The Israeli strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs earlier Sunday created concern that the peace negotiations could collapse if Iran and Israel resumed trading fire. Ironically, it accelerated the completion of the final text, according to two Israeli officials. But the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could still complicate a more lasting peace deal. Read more ›

• 黎巴嫩局势：以色列周日早些时候对贝鲁特南郊发动的袭击一度引发担忧，人们担心如果伊朗与以色列重新交火，和平谈判可能破裂。据两名以色列官员透露，具有讽刺意味的是，这次袭击反而加速了最终协议文本的完成。不过，以色列与真主党之间的冲突未来仍可能给更持久的和平协议带来复杂影响。阅读详情›

In a pitch to private investors, Elon Musk once predicted that one of his companies would quintuple its revenue to more than $26 billion and nearly quintuple its customer base by 2028.

在一次面向私人投资者的推介中，埃隆·马斯克曾预言，他旗下的一家公司到2028年营收将增至五倍、超过260亿美元，用户群也将接近增至五倍。

That company was Twitter and those projections were made as Mr. Musk prepared to buy the social media company for $44 billion in 2022.

那家公司就是Twitter，上述预测是马斯克在2022年斥资440亿美元收购这家社交媒体公司前夕作出的。

Today, Twitter, which has been renamed X, has fallen far short of what Mr. Musk said would happen. The social media platform’s ad revenue plunged 65 percent last year. And it was ultimately folded into SpaceX, Mr. Musk’s rocket company, this year.

如今，已更名为X的Twitter远远没有实现马斯克当年的预测。去年这家社交媒体平台的广告收入暴跌65%。而在今年，它最终被并入了马斯克的火箭公司SpaceX。

Now as SpaceX readies for a blockbuster initial public offering, Mr. Musk and his investment bankers are selling even loftier propositions about what the rocket and artificial intelligence company will achieve. But those proclamations, coupled with Mr. Musk’s history of overpromising, have some investors increasingly worried that SpaceX — which priced its offering at a $1.77 trillion valuation and is set to begin trading on Friday — may burn them.

眼下，随着SpaceX筹备轰动一时的首次公开募股，马斯克和他的投资银行家们正在兜售更为宏大的愿景，描绘这家火箭和人工智能公司的未来蓝图。但这些豪言壮语和马斯克过度承诺的惯常作风正让一些投资者越来越担心：估值达到1.77万亿美元、计划于周五开始交易的SpaceX可能会让他们遭受损失。

“It really does feel very much a ‘don’t look at the man behind the curtain’ situation,” said Jim Chanos, the founder of the investment firm Chanos and Company, who predicted the 2001 collapse of Enron, the energy company that was found to have engaged in accounting fraud.

“这给人的感觉确实很像‘障眼法’，”投资公司Chanos and Company的创始人吉姆·查诺斯说。他曾预测安然公司会在2001年倒闭——那家能源公司后来被发现存在会计欺诈。

Mr. Chanos and others said they were concerned with SpaceX’s finances. The company lost $4.3 billion in the first three months of the year alone and is spending heavily on A.I. development. Revenue was $4.7 billion and growing, but it was far lower than that of tech giants like Meta, which brought in $56.3 billion in the same period and has a stock market valuation of $1.4 trillion.

查诺斯等人表示，他们担忧的是SpaceX的财务状况。仅今年第一季度，公司就亏损了43亿美元，而且仍在人工智能研发方面大举投入；其营收达到47亿美元并保持增长，但与Meta等科技巨头相比仍相差甚远——Meta同期营收高达563亿美元，市值约为1.4万亿美元。

投资公司Chanos and Company创始人吉姆·查诺斯，他曾准确预测了安然公司2001年的倒闭。

At the same time, SpaceX has promised that its total addressable market — which is its revenue opportunity if it captured all the demand across its various industries — is the largest “in human history” at $28.5 trillion. The figure, which depends on SpaceX proving that it can put A.I. data centers in space and develop factories on the moon, dwarfs China’s annual gross domestic product by more than $8 trillion.

与此同时，SpaceX声称其总潜在市场规模——即在其涉足的所有行业中独占全部需求的营收上限——是“人类历史上”最大的，高达28.5万亿美元。这一数字比中国全年国内生产总值高出逾8万亿美元，其前提是SpaceX能够证明它可以将人工智能数据中心送入太空，并在月球上建厂。

Michael Burry, a hedge fund investor featured in the book “The Big Short” for his predictions on the 2008 financial crisis, said in a Substack discussion last month that any increase in SpaceX’s stock after its I.P.O. would “be on hype and technicals.”

因准确预测2008年金融危机而出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里上个月在Substack讨论中表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。

“Nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion,” Mr. Burry wrote, referring to the company’s I.P.O. filing.

“那份S-1文件中没有任何内容能够表明它值1万亿美元，更遑论2万亿美元，”贝里写道。

出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。

Even some SpaceX shareholders have doubts. Ross Gerber, the chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki, an investment firm that owns SpaceX stock, said the company’s projections reminded him of unverified information that young start-ups used to woo investors. He said he was alarmed by SpaceX’s valuation of $1.77 trillion, which would be more than four times the $400 billion that the company was valued at just 13 months ago.

就连部分SpaceX股东也心存疑虑。持有SpaceX股票的投资公司Gerber Kawasaki的首席执行官罗斯·格伯表示，该公司的预测让他联想到年轻初创企业用来诱惑投资者的未经证实的说辞。1.77万亿美元的估值让他感到震惊，因为就在13个月前，该公司的估值还只有4000亿美元。

“Investors are paying an extremely high price for this stock,” Mr. Gerber said.

“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”格伯说。

“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”Gerber Kawasaki首席执行官罗斯·格伯在谈到SpaceX时表示。

A SpaceX spokesman did not return a request for comment.

SpaceX发言人没有回应置评请求。

SpaceX’s bankers, including Goldman Sachs, which is leading the I.P.O. process, have added to the sweeping projections. The Financial Times earlier reported that Goldman had told a potential investor that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. Morgan Stanley, which is also working on the I.P.O., said in an analysis shared with investors that it anticipated SpaceX’s revenue would hit $3.4 trillion by 2040, according to The Wall Street Journal.

SpaceX的承销商——包括主导IPO过程的高盛——也为这些宏大预测推波助澜。英国《金融时报》此前报道，高盛曾告诉一位潜在投资者，预计SpaceX的总收入将从去年的187亿美元增长到2030年的4740亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道，同样参与IPO的摩根士丹利在分享给投资者的一份分析报告中预计，到2040年，SpaceX的收入将达到3.4万亿美元。

Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.

高盛和摩根士丹利均拒绝置评。

Morningstar, an investment research company, issued a more sober analysis. The firm said that SpaceX’s I.P.O. price was “overvalued” and that the company was worth around $780 billion. Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar equity researcher, gave SpaceX a 7 percent chance of getting its latest rocket, Starship, to a point where it can be used over and over again like a regular plane, and proving that A.I. data centers were cheaper and more effective than their terrestrial counterparts. In the most optimistic scenario, Mr. Owens said, SpaceX could be valued at $1.97 trillion.

投资研究公司晨星发布了一份更为冷静的分析。该公司表示，SpaceX的IPO价格被“高估”，认为其合理估值约为7800亿美元。晨星股票研究员尼古拉斯·欧文斯认为，SpaceX将其最新火箭“星舰”打造成像普通飞机一样可重复使用的可能性为7%，并且需要证明人工智能数据中心比地面数据中心更便宜、更高效。欧文斯表示，在最乐观的情景下，SpaceX的估值可能达到1.97万亿美元。

“We’ll know in two to three years if Starship is reusable or a GPU rack in space will be viable or offer some cost savings,” he said, referring to the computer chips used to power A.I. technology. “But the company is asking everyone to decide on Friday if that’s possible and what it’s worth.”

“两三年内我们就会知道‘星舰’是否可重复使用，或者太空中的GPU机架是否具有商业可行性或成本优势，”他指的是用于驱动人工智能技术的计算机芯片。“但公司要求所有人在周五就作出判断，决定这一切是否可能实现，以及它值多少钱。”

Mr. Musk has also shown a propensity to change his business goals on the fly, analysts and investors said. It was not until last year that he first spoke of data centers in space, and he doubled down on the idea in February after merging SpaceX with his A.I. company, xAI.

分析人士和投资者还指出，马斯克有随时调整商业目标的习惯。事实上，直到去年，他才首次提出建设太空数据中心的概念；今年2月，在将SpaceX与自己的人工智能公司xAI合并后，他又进一步加码这一方向。

In April, SpaceX said it had agreed to acquire Cursor, an A.I. start-up that develops coding software, for $60 billion, shifting the company into an area it was not previously focused on. Mr. Musk, who has spent billions to build his own frontier A.I. models and his A.I. chatbot Grok, also appeared to change course recently on other A.I. plans.

今年4月，SpaceX宣布同意以600亿美元收购开发编程软件的AI初创企业Cursor，使公司业务进入此前从未重点涉足的新领域。马斯克已经投入数十亿美元开发自己的前沿AI模型以及聊天机器人Grok，但最近似乎也在其他AI计划上改变了方向。

Last month, SpaceX struck a deal with the A.I. start-up Anthropic to provide it with computing power for products that were not being used by Mr. Musk’s own A.I. services. SpaceX then forged a similar agreement last week to provide Google with computing power.

上个月，SpaceX与AI初创公司Anthropic达成协议，把马斯克自己的AI服务未用上的算力提供给对方。上周，SpaceX又与谷歌签署了类似的算力供应协议。

SpaceX boosters on Wall Street and social media promoted the deals as wins that would generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue. But naysayers pointed to how the company was making significant changes to its long-term business plans at the last minute.

华尔街和社交媒体上的SpaceX支持者将这些交易吹捧为重大胜利，认为它们将创造数百亿美元收入。但批评者指出，这家公司在临门一脚之际对其长期商业计划做出了重大改动。

“The real excitement should be about developing some new, powerful agentic model,” Mr. Chanos said. “But xAI seems to be suddenly changing its business model from developing models like Grok to basically becoming a neocloud,” he said, using the industry term for companies that provide computing power to other A.I. firms.

“真正令人兴奋的应该是开发出某种强大的新型智能体模型，”查诺斯说，“但xAI似乎正在突然将商业模式从开发Grok这样的模型，转向基本上成为一家新型云计算公司(neocloud)——”他用了业内术语“neocloud”，指为其他人工智能公司提供算力的企业。

“That’s crucial because the entire valuation rests on xAI’s progress,” Mr. Chanos said, calling the neocloud strategy a “commodity business” that is valued far lower on the public markets.

“这一点至关重要，因为整个估值都建立在xAI的进展之上，”查诺斯说。他将这种“新云”策略称为“大宗商品业务”，其在公开市场上的估值要低得多。

Ultimately, SpaceX’s I.P.O. will be a litmus test of investors’ faith in Mr. Musk, Mr. Gerber said. Those willing to pay will do so because Mr. Musk, who previously transformed the car industry with his electric carmaker Tesla, is at the helm of a one-of-a-kind company in SpaceX.

格伯表示，归根结底，SpaceX的IPO将是投资者对马斯克信任程度的一次考验。那些愿意出钱的人之所以这样做，是因为马斯克——这位曾凭借电动汽车制造商特斯拉颠覆汽车行业的人——在掌舵SpaceX这家独一无二的公司。

“People are paying a trillion dollars for Elon,” Mr. Gerber said.

“人们花1万亿买的是埃隆这个人，”格伯说。