In a pitch to private investors, Elon Musk once predicted that one of his companies would quintuple its revenue to more than $26 billion and nearly quintuple its customer base by 2028.

在一次面向私人投资者的推介中，埃隆·马斯克曾预言，他旗下的一家公司到2028年营收将增至五倍、超过260亿美元，用户群也将接近增至五倍。

That company was Twitter and those projections were made as Mr. Musk prepared to buy the social media company for $44 billion in 2022.

那家公司就是Twitter，上述预测是马斯克在2022年斥资440亿美元收购这家社交媒体公司前夕作出的。

Today, Twitter, which has been renamed X, has fallen far short of what Mr. Musk said would happen. The social media platform’s ad revenue plunged 65 percent last year. And it was ultimately folded into SpaceX, Mr. Musk’s rocket company, this year.

如今，已更名为X的Twitter远远没有实现马斯克当年的预测。去年这家社交媒体平台的广告收入暴跌65%。而在今年，它最终被并入了马斯克的火箭公司SpaceX。

Now as SpaceX readies for a blockbuster initial public offering, Mr. Musk and his investment bankers are selling even loftier propositions about what the rocket and artificial intelligence company will achieve. But those proclamations, coupled with Mr. Musk’s history of overpromising, have some investors increasingly worried that SpaceX — which priced its offering at a $1.77 trillion valuation and is set to begin trading on Friday — may burn them.

眼下，随着SpaceX筹备轰动一时的首次公开募股，马斯克和他的投资银行家们正在兜售更为宏大的愿景，描绘这家火箭和人工智能公司的未来蓝图。但这些豪言壮语和马斯克过度承诺的惯常作风正让一些投资者越来越担心：估值达到1.77万亿美元、计划于周五开始交易的SpaceX可能会让他们遭受损失。

“It really does feel very much a ‘don’t look at the man behind the curtain’ situation,” said Jim Chanos, the founder of the investment firm Chanos and Company, who predicted the 2001 collapse of Enron, the energy company that was found to have engaged in accounting fraud.

“这给人的感觉确实很像‘障眼法’，”投资公司Chanos and Company的创始人吉姆·查诺斯说。他曾预测安然公司会在2001年倒闭——那家能源公司后来被发现存在会计欺诈。

Mr. Chanos and others said they were concerned with SpaceX’s finances. The company lost $4.3 billion in the first three months of the year alone and is spending heavily on A.I. development. Revenue was $4.7 billion and growing, but it was far lower than that of tech giants like Meta, which brought in $56.3 billion in the same period and has a stock market valuation of $1.4 trillion.

查诺斯等人表示，他们担忧的是SpaceX的财务状况。仅今年第一季度，公司就亏损了43亿美元，而且仍在人工智能研发方面大举投入；其营收达到47亿美元并保持增长，但与Meta等科技巨头相比仍相差甚远——Meta同期营收高达563亿美元，市值约为1.4万亿美元。

投资公司Chanos and Company创始人吉姆·查诺斯，他曾准确预测了安然公司2001年的倒闭。

At the same time, SpaceX has promised that its total addressable market — which is its revenue opportunity if it captured all the demand across its various industries — is the largest “in human history” at $28.5 trillion. The figure, which depends on SpaceX proving that it can put A.I. data centers in space and develop factories on the moon, dwarfs China’s annual gross domestic product by more than $8 trillion.

与此同时，SpaceX声称其总潜在市场规模——即在其涉足的所有行业中独占全部需求的营收上限——是“人类历史上”最大的，高达28.5万亿美元。这一数字比中国全年国内生产总值高出逾8万亿美元，其前提是SpaceX能够证明它可以将人工智能数据中心送入太空，并在月球上建厂。

Michael Burry, a hedge fund investor featured in the book “The Big Short” for his predictions on the 2008 financial crisis, said in a Substack discussion last month that any increase in SpaceX’s stock after its I.P.O. would “be on hype and technicals.”

因准确预测2008年金融危机而出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里上个月在Substack讨论中表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。

“Nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion,” Mr. Burry wrote, referring to the company’s I.P.O. filing.

“那份S-1文件中没有任何内容能够表明它值1万亿美元，更遑论2万亿美元，”贝里写道。

出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。

Even some SpaceX shareholders have doubts. Ross Gerber, the chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki, an investment firm that owns SpaceX stock, said the company’s projections reminded him of unverified information that young start-ups used to woo investors. He said he was alarmed by SpaceX’s valuation of $1.77 trillion, which would be more than four times the $400 billion that the company was valued at just 13 months ago.

就连部分SpaceX股东也心存疑虑。持有SpaceX股票的投资公司Gerber Kawasaki的首席执行官罗斯·格伯表示，该公司的预测让他联想到年轻初创企业用来诱惑投资者的未经证实的说辞。1.77万亿美元的估值让他感到震惊，因为就在13个月前，该公司的估值还只有4000亿美元。

“Investors are paying an extremely high price for this stock,” Mr. Gerber said.

“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”格伯说。

“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”Gerber Kawasaki首席执行官罗斯·格伯在谈到SpaceX时表示。

A SpaceX spokesman did not return a request for comment.

SpaceX发言人没有回应置评请求。

SpaceX’s bankers, including Goldman Sachs, which is leading the I.P.O. process, have added to the sweeping projections. The Financial Times earlier reported that Goldman had told a potential investor that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. Morgan Stanley, which is also working on the I.P.O., said in an analysis shared with investors that it anticipated SpaceX’s revenue would hit $3.4 trillion by 2040, according to The Wall Street Journal.

SpaceX的承销商——包括主导IPO过程的高盛——也为这些宏大预测推波助澜。英国《金融时报》此前报道，高盛曾告诉一位潜在投资者，预计SpaceX的总收入将从去年的187亿美元增长到2030年的4740亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道，同样参与IPO的摩根士丹利在分享给投资者的一份分析报告中预计，到2040年，SpaceX的收入将达到3.4万亿美元。

Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.

高盛和摩根士丹利均拒绝置评。

Morningstar, an investment research company, issued a more sober analysis. The firm said that SpaceX’s I.P.O. price was “overvalued” and that the company was worth around $780 billion. Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar equity researcher, gave SpaceX a 7 percent chance of getting its latest rocket, Starship, to a point where it can be used over and over again like a regular plane, and proving that A.I. data centers were cheaper and more effective than their terrestrial counterparts. In the most optimistic scenario, Mr. Owens said, SpaceX could be valued at $1.97 trillion.

投资研究公司晨星发布了一份更为冷静的分析。该公司表示，SpaceX的IPO价格被“高估”，认为其合理估值约为7800亿美元。晨星股票研究员尼古拉斯·欧文斯认为，SpaceX将其最新火箭“星舰”打造成像普通飞机一样可重复使用的可能性为7%，并且需要证明人工智能数据中心比地面数据中心更便宜、更高效。欧文斯表示，在最乐观的情景下，SpaceX的估值可能达到1.97万亿美元。

“We’ll know in two to three years if Starship is reusable or a GPU rack in space will be viable or offer some cost savings,” he said, referring to the computer chips used to power A.I. technology. “But the company is asking everyone to decide on Friday if that’s possible and what it’s worth.”

“两三年内我们就会知道‘星舰’是否可重复使用，或者太空中的GPU机架是否具有商业可行性或成本优势，”他指的是用于驱动人工智能技术的计算机芯片。“但公司要求所有人在周五就作出判断，决定这一切是否可能实现，以及它值多少钱。”

Mr. Musk has also shown a propensity to change his business goals on the fly, analysts and investors said. It was not until last year that he first spoke of data centers in space, and he doubled down on the idea in February after merging SpaceX with his A.I. company, xAI.

分析人士和投资者还指出，马斯克有随时调整商业目标的习惯。事实上，直到去年，他才首次提出建设太空数据中心的概念；今年2月，在将SpaceX与自己的人工智能公司xAI合并后，他又进一步加码这一方向。

In April, SpaceX said it had agreed to acquire Cursor, an A.I. start-up that develops coding software, for $60 billion, shifting the company into an area it was not previously focused on. Mr. Musk, who has spent billions to build his own frontier A.I. models and his A.I. chatbot Grok, also appeared to change course recently on other A.I. plans.

今年4月，SpaceX宣布同意以600亿美元收购开发编程软件的AI初创企业Cursor，使公司业务进入此前从未重点涉足的新领域。马斯克已经投入数十亿美元开发自己的前沿AI模型以及聊天机器人Grok，但最近似乎也在其他AI计划上改变了方向。

Last month, SpaceX struck a deal with the A.I. start-up Anthropic to provide it with computing power for products that were not being used by Mr. Musk’s own A.I. services. SpaceX then forged a similar agreement last week to provide Google with computing power.

上个月，SpaceX与AI初创公司Anthropic达成协议，把马斯克自己的AI服务未用上的算力提供给对方。上周，SpaceX又与谷歌签署了类似的算力供应协议。

SpaceX boosters on Wall Street and social media promoted the deals as wins that would generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue. But naysayers pointed to how the company was making significant changes to its long-term business plans at the last minute.

华尔街和社交媒体上的SpaceX支持者将这些交易吹捧为重大胜利，认为它们将创造数百亿美元收入。但批评者指出，这家公司在临门一脚之际对其长期商业计划做出了重大改动。

“The real excitement should be about developing some new, powerful agentic model,” Mr. Chanos said. “But xAI seems to be suddenly changing its business model from developing models like Grok to basically becoming a neocloud,” he said, using the industry term for companies that provide computing power to other A.I. firms.

“真正令人兴奋的应该是开发出某种强大的新型智能体模型，”查诺斯说，“但xAI似乎正在突然将商业模式从开发Grok这样的模型，转向基本上成为一家新型云计算公司(neocloud)——”他用了业内术语“neocloud”，指为其他人工智能公司提供算力的企业。

“That’s crucial because the entire valuation rests on xAI’s progress,” Mr. Chanos said, calling the neocloud strategy a “commodity business” that is valued far lower on the public markets.

“这一点至关重要，因为整个估值都建立在xAI的进展之上，”查诺斯说。他将这种“新云”策略称为“大宗商品业务”，其在公开市场上的估值要低得多。

Ultimately, SpaceX’s I.P.O. will be a litmus test of investors’ faith in Mr. Musk, Mr. Gerber said. Those willing to pay will do so because Mr. Musk, who previously transformed the car industry with his electric carmaker Tesla, is at the helm of a one-of-a-kind company in SpaceX.

格伯表示，归根结底，SpaceX的IPO将是投资者对马斯克信任程度的一次考验。那些愿意出钱的人之所以这样做，是因为马斯克——这位曾凭借电动汽车制造商特斯拉颠覆汽车行业的人——在掌舵SpaceX这家独一无二的公司。

“People are paying a trillion dollars for Elon,” Mr. Gerber said.

“人们花1万亿买的是埃隆这个人，”格伯说。

The cycle of violence and right-wing agitation in Britain has become all too frightening and frequent.

英国暴力事件和右翼煽动频发，场面令人惊骇。

It can start with a stabbing, horrific in nature, that causes fear and anger. Condemnation from political leaders and law enforcement swiftly follows.

首先往往是一场性质极其恶劣的持刀伤人事件，从而引发恐惧与愤怒。随后，政治领导人和执法部门会迅速予以谴责。

But when the attacker is an immigrant or a person of color, a malign, distorted narrative often explodes onto the internet. Right-wing politicians and commentators seize on it to foment outrage in support of their anti-immigrant agenda, aided by social media algorithms that feed on conflict and division. Within hours, the anger they stoke online has jumped to the real world, setting off protests that become angry riots.

但只要袭击者是移民或有色人种，一种带有恶意且歪曲事实的叙事便往往会在互联网上轰然炸开。右翼政治和评论人士会借此煽动愤怒，以支持他们的反移民政治议程，那些靠冲突和分裂来获取流量的社交媒体算法则在其中推波助澜。在几个小时内，他们在网络上挑起的愤怒就会蔓延至现实世界，引发演变成愤怒暴动的抗议活动。

There are pleas for calm and promises of action by government and law enforcement. But soon afterward, the cycle begins again.

政府和执法部门会呼吁保持冷静并承诺采取行动。但不久之后，一切又会重新开始。

Twice in the last 10 days, vicious knife attacks in England and Northern Ireland have followed that pattern. On Tuesday and Wednesday, protesters in Belfast who were furious about an attack by a Sudanese refugee set fire to cars and property and hurled objects at the police. That followed a night of angry rioting in Southampton last week after new video was released in the murder in December of an 18-year-old college student who was falsely accused by his attacker of having perpetrated a racist assault.

过去10天里，英格兰和北爱尔兰发生的两次恶性刀刺袭击事件都遵循了这一模式。周二和周三，被一名苏丹难民的袭击事件激怒的抗议者在贝尔法斯特纵火焚烧汽车和房屋，并向警察投掷物品。在此之前，南安普敦上周刚刚经历了一个愤怒的骚乱之夜，当时有关去年12月一名18岁大学生被杀的新视频被公开，该学生曾被袭击者诬陷实施了种族主义袭击。

本月早些时候，南安普敦的一场抗议，反对警方关于逮捕亨利·诺瓦克的处理方式。

“There’s a playbook,” said Ciarán O’Connor, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which researches extremism, hate and disinformation globally. “An incident of violence like this is identified and rapidly amplified by not just a domestic but a global, transnational, far-right ecosystem who use such incidents to absorb them into their own kind of international narrative.”

“这套路是有剧本的，”专注于全球极端主义、仇恨和虚假信息研究的战略对话研究所高级分析师基兰·奥康纳说。“像这样的暴力事件一旦发生，不仅国内，全球跨国的极右翼生态系统都会迅速锁定并将其放大，他们利用这类事件将其吸收到他们自己的那套国际叙事当中。”

He said the dynamic has become “alarmingly familiar and even predictable.”

他表示，这种动态已经变得“令人警惕地熟悉，甚至是可以预见的”。

Britain is not alone. Across Europe and in the United States, ascendant right-wing political groups are amplifying the frustration and anger that people feel in the wake of a scary episode, and funneling it toward hostility to immigrants. Researchers say the pattern is followed by members of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in Germany and France’s National Rally Party.

英国并非特例。在整个欧洲以及美国，力量正处于上升期的右翼政治团体正在放大人们在可怕事件发生后的沮丧与愤怒，并将其引向对移民的敌意。研究人员表示，德国的极右翼政党德国选择党以及法国的国民联盟党的成员也在遵循这一模式。

“We have moved from stoking hatred online to actually bringing it into the streets in a variety of ways,” said Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University. “We’re certainly seeing a blurring between this online world and what is happening in the real world, and, and part of the problem is that the political class doesn’t quite seem to know how to deal with it.”

卡迪夫大学政治学讲师玛尔塔·洛里默表示：“我们已经从在网络上煽动仇恨发展到了通过各种方式真正将仇恨带向街头。我们当然看到了这个虚拟网络世界与现实世界正在发生的事件之间界限正变得模糊，而且，部分问题在于政治阶层似乎根本不知道该如何应对这一局面。”

Ms. Lorimer said Britain is especially vulnerable because it shares the English language with the United States, which she said makes it easier for right-wing groups there to use the American-based social media companies to stoke anger from afar.

洛里默指出，英国尤其易受其害，因为它与美国通用英语，她认为这使得美国的右翼团体更容易利用总部设在美国的社交媒体公司，从远方煽动愤怒。

That was the case on Tuesday, when Elon Musk, the owner of X, called for people to “REPEATEDLY and LOUDLY” protest in Belfast. He highlighted an image that listed protest locations distributed by Tommy Robinson, an anti-Muslim agitator in Britain with multiple criminal convictions.

周二的情况正是如此，当时X的所有者埃隆·马斯克呼吁人们在贝尔法斯特进行“反复且大声”的抗议。他特别转引了一张列有抗议地点的图片，该图片是由存在多项刑事犯罪前科的英国反穆斯林煽动分子汤米·罗宾逊散布的。

汤米·罗宾逊（右二）本月在南安普敦警察局外参加一场抗议活动。

“The whole of the United Kingdom is hitting the streets tonight at 7pm following yet another invader attack on our people,” Mr. Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, wrote on X.

罗宾逊（其真实姓名是斯蒂芬·雅克斯利-列侬）在X上写道：“今晚7点，随着又一起针对我们人民的入侵者袭击事件发生，整个联合王国都在走上街头。”

Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain’s populist, right-wing Reform U.K. Party, has used both of the recent knife attacks to push his anti-immigrant policy agenda. The party has become a major political force in Britain, winning local races across the country last month and consistently topping national election polls. That recent success gives him more political clout than he had a decade ago when his party was on the fringe of British politics.

英国民粹主义右翼政党英国改革党的领导人奈杰尔·法拉奇利用最近发生的这两起持刀袭击事件来推进其反移民政策议程。该党已成为英国的一股主要政治力量，上个月在全国各地赢得许多地方选举，并在全国选举民意调查中持续领跑。近期的成功使他拥有了比十年前更强大的政治影响力，当时他的政党还处于英国政治的边缘地带。

Speaking on Wednesday, Mr. Farage described the knife attack in Belfast as an attempted “beheading,” adopting language used on the internet despite the fact that no law enforcement or government official has publicly called it that. In that case, the police charged Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese man, with stabbing Stephen Ogilvie in the head, the back and the neck, costing Mr. Ogilvie his eye.

在周三的讲话中，法拉奇使用网上流传的说法，将贝尔法斯特的持刀袭击形容为一起企图“斩首”的事件，尽管没有任何执法部门或政府官员在公开场合这样定性过。在这起案件中，警方指控30岁的苏丹裔男子哈迪·阿洛迪德刺伤了斯蒂芬·奥格尔维的头部、背部和颈部，导致奥格尔维失去了一只眼睛。

“There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this man should not have been in this country,” Mr. Farage said, even though authorities said Mr. Alodid was in the country legally.

法拉奇说：“在我看来，毫无疑问，这个人根本不应该留在这个国家，”尽管当局表示阿洛迪德在英国拥有合法身份。

贝尔法斯特一面墙上写下的一条标语，用以纪念去年在英格兰被谋杀的亨利·诺瓦克，其遇害的方式助长了右翼的愤怒。

Sundar Katwala, the director of British Future, a think tank that focuses on issues of identity, said politicians like Mr. Farage are increasingly using what Mr. Katwala called “flashpoint moments” to appeal to the part of his base who want him to embrace more aggressive language.

专注于身份认同议题的智库“英国未来”的总监桑德·卡特瓦拉表示，像法拉奇这样的政治人物正越来越多地利用他称为“导火索时刻”的事件，迎合其选民群体中希望他们使用更具攻击性语言的那部分人。

There were roughly 500 homicides in Britain last year, many of them shocking. But if the victim isn’t white, or the crime doesn’t fit a narrative that will demonize immigrants, it is not seized on to stoke angry protests.

去年英国大约发生了500起凶杀案，其中许多案件令人震惊。但如果受害者不是白人，或者罪行不符合那种能将移民妖魔化的叙事，它就不会被利用来煽动愤怒的抗议活动。

Other politicians have urged restraint and calm, while trying to acknowledge the appalling nature of the knife attacks. In Parliament on Wednesday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Monday’s attack on Mr. Ogilvie in Belfast and the violence in the streets that followed on Tuesday night.

其他政治人物则敦促保持克制与冷静，同时也努力去承认这些持刀袭击事件的骇人性质。在周三的议会上，首相基尔·斯塔默谴责了周一对奥格尔维的袭击，以及紧随其后在周二晚上发生的街头暴力事件。

“We are all sickened by this attack, but the seeds of violence and disorder have no justification,” he said.

“我们都对这次袭击感到恶心，但不能因此播下暴力和混乱的种子，”他说。

Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, said on X that “people have a right to be angry. And people have the right to expect their politicians to secure our borders.” But she called the scenes of rioting in Belfast “deeply disturbing” and said that “no one has a right to burn families out of their homes.”

保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺赫在X上表示：“人民有权感到愤怒。人民有权期望他们的政治家能够捍卫我们的边境。”但她称贝尔法斯特的暴动画面“令人深感不安”，并表示“任何人都无权用纵火将一个个家庭逐出家园”。

Ofcom, which regulates the communications industry in Britain, has warned online service providers that they have a duty to ensure that they do not spread illegal content that could inflame a crisis — by inciting violence, for example. In an open letter on Wednesday, the agency wrote that “we are already contacting individual providers where we believe there are specific risks around the presence of illegal content relating to the civil unrest.”

英国通信业监管机构英国通信管理局已向网络服务提供商发出警告，称他们有责任确保自己不会传播可能激化危机的非法内容——例如煽动暴力。在周三的一封公开信中，该机构写道：“在我们认为围绕与民乱相关的非法内容存在特定风险的地方，我们已经在与各个提供商取得联系。”

But those efforts have done little to curb the spread of incendiary and often misleading information on the platforms. Mr. O’Connor, of the Strategic Dialogue institute, said his organization found repeated instances this week of Facebook pages with sketchy claims that the Belfast attacker said “praise be God” in Arabic during the attack.

但这些努力几乎无法遏制这些平台上煽动性且往往具有误导性的信息的传播。战略对话研究所的奥康纳表示，他的组织本周反复发现一些脸书页面上的可疑言论，声称贝尔法斯特的袭击者在袭击期间用阿拉伯语高喊了“赞美真主”。

Experts who study the online platforms say that they are providing forums for right-wing politicians to become more a part of the mainstream.

研究网络平台的专家表示，这些平台正为右翼政治家提供走向主流的舞台。

“The stuff that we’re hearing today, 20 years ago, would have been considered absolutely fringe, completely wild things that only the more extremist political parties would ever defend,” Ms. Lorimer said.

洛里默说：“我们今天听到的这些内容在20年前会被视为绝对边缘、完全疯狂的言论，只有那些更极端的政党才会去辩护。”

At the same time, she said, liberal and centrist politicians like Mr. Starmer in Britain and some Democrats in the United States are feeling pressure to move to the right with policies that respond to the concerns of angry, frustrated voters.

与此同时，她表示，像英国的斯塔默和美国的一些民主党人这样的自由主义和温和中派政治家，正感受到向右转的压力，不得不出台政策来回应愤怒、沮丧的选民的关切。

That forces the right to “double down into even more extreme policies that then in turn become normalized,” she said. “You really end up in a situation where it escalates quite quickly, and that’s very much where we are right now.”

这反过来又迫使右翼“加倍推行更极端的政策，而这些政策随后又变得常态化”，她指出。“你真的会陷入一种局势升级极其迅速的境地，而这正是我们目前的处境。”

Chinese security officers have arrested an American citizen who studies politics in Myanmar, an authoritarian nation on China’s southwest border, and accused him of endangering national security, according to people with knowledge of the arrest.

据知情人士透露，中国安全官员逮捕了一名研究缅甸政治的美国公民，并指控其危害国家安全。缅甸是与中国西南边境接壤的一个威权国家。

The U.S. citizen, U Min Zin, was arrested in early June, the people said. He disappeared on June 3 while in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province, which borders Myanmar. American diplomats are aware of the arrest.

知情人士称，这位名为敏辛(U Min Zin)的美国公民于6月上旬被捕。他于6月3日在邻近缅甸的云南省省会昆明失踪。美国外交官已知悉此事。

It is rare for China to arrest a U.S. citizen on charges of a national security crime, and the action against Mr. Min Zin takes place as President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, are trying to establish a type of partnership between the two nations.

中国以危害国家安全罪名逮捕美国公民的情况并不常见，而针对敏辛的这一行动正值特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平试图建立某种伙伴关系之际。

Mr. Min Zin is a political scientist and executive director of a policy research group originally based in Yangon, the former capital of Myanmar. The group has worked from different locations since a 2021 military coup in Myanmar. Over the years, he has spent time in both the United States and his home country of Myanmar, once known as Burma, and he now lives in Thailand.

敏辛是一位政治学家，也是一家政策研究机构的执行主任。该机构总部最初设在缅甸旧都仰光，2021年军事政变后在不同地点开展工作。多年来，他曾在美国和他的祖国缅甸两地居住，目前居住在泰国。

He has written essays on Myanmar politics for the opinion section of The New York Times, Foreign Policy and other news organizations.

他曾为《纽约时报》观点版、《外交政策》及其他新闻机构撰写关于缅甸政治的评论文章。

“We are aware of reports regarding a U.S. citizen detained in China,” the State Department said in a statement Thursday when asked about the arrest. “Whenever a U.S. citizen is detained, we work to provide the appropriate consular assistance.” It declined to give further details, citing federal privacy law.

周四在被问及此次逮捕时，美国国务院在一份声明中表示：“我们获悉了有关一名美国公民在中国被拘留的报告。每当有美国公民被拘留时，我们都会努力提供适当的领事协助。”出于联邦隐私法的规定，国务院拒绝提供更多细节。

Mr. Min Zin’s wife did not reply to an emailed request for comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington had no immediate comment.

敏辛的妻子未对电子邮件形式的置评请求做出回复。中国驻华盛顿大使馆未立即置评。

The arrest took place less than three weeks after President Trump attended a summit and state banquet in Beijing hosted by Mr. Xi. Mr. Trump praised Mr. Xi during the meetings and in interviews afterward, and he said he aimed to form a “G2” partnership with China, emphasizing cooperation rather than competition.

此次逮捕发生前不到三周，特朗普总统刚出席了北京峰会以及由习近平主持的国宴。特朗普在会谈中及随后的采访中对习近平大加赞赏，并表示他的目标是与中国建立“G2”伙伴关系，强调合作而非竞争。

Mr. Trump has long admired Mr. Xi, and he moved to accommodate China after its government retaliated against the United States during a trade war that Mr. Trump started last year.

特朗普长期以来一直赞赏习近平，去年由他发起的贸易战遭到中国政府反制后，他转而采取了迁就的姿态。

China’s arrest of another U.S. citizen and its use of a national security charge complicates that rapprochement. One American official said that although Chinese officials insist they are serious about trying to establish what the two governments call “constructive strategic stability,” this arrest undermines that effort.

中国逮捕又一名美国公民并使用危害国家安全罪名使这一和解进程复杂化。一名美国官员表示，尽管中国官员坚称他们对于试图建立两国政府所谓的“建设性战略稳定”是认真的，但这次逮捕破坏了这一努力。

China keeps about 200 American citizens under some form of detention, said John Kamm, the founder of the Dui Hua Foundation, which advocates for prisoner releases in China. Some Americans are imprisoned on drug charges, while others are prevented from leaving the country on “exit bans,” often because of commercial or financial disputes.

倡导释放中国在押人员的对话基金会创始人康原(John Kamm)表示，中国对大约200名美国公民采取了某种形式的拘留。一些美国人因涉毒罪名被判刑，另一些人则因商业或财务纠纷而受到“出境限制”，无法离境。

Mr. Kamm said he was unaware of any American currently held on a charge of endangering national security. Kai Li, who was convicted in 2016 of espionage, was among three Americans released by China in 2024 as part of a prisoner swap arranged by the Biden administration. Another American convicted of spying, Sandy Phan-Gillis, was expelled from the country in 2017 after having been detained for more than two years.

康原表示，据他所知，目前没有其他美国人因危害国家安全罪名被拘留。作为拜登政府安排的囚犯交换的一部分，曾于2016年因间谍罪被定罪的李凯是2024年被中国释放的三名美国人之一。另一名被判决犯有间谍罪的美国人潘婉芬(Sandy Phan-Gillis)在被拘禁两年多后，于2017年被驱逐出境。

Mr. Kamm said he had heard of an American citizen detained two months ago on accusations of an economic crime.

康原说，他听说两个月前有一名美国公民因涉嫌经济犯罪被拘留。

It is unclear why Chinese security officers in Yunnan Province arrested Mr. Min Zin. There was once a sizable presence of people from Myanmar in Yunnan, but that has dwindled since the pandemic. China has at times provided aid to some armed groups from Myanmar that operate on both sides of the border. But it is unclear whether Mr. Min Zin was involved in research or activities involving those people.

目前尚不清楚云南省的中国安全官员为何逮捕敏辛。云南曾有大量缅甸人聚集，但自疫情以来人数已有所减少。中国有时会向在边境两侧活动的一些缅甸武装组织提供援助。目前尚不清楚敏辛是否参与了涉及这些人员的研究或活动。

The Chinese Communist Party and government have a close relationship with the military-linked government that rules Myanmar. Mr. Min Zin wrote extensively on China’s role in the Myanmar government.

中国共产党和政府与统治缅甸的军方背景政府保持着密切关系。敏辛就中国在缅甸政府中所扮演的角色撰写了大量文章。

A Nepali research group said in an online post in May that Mr. Min Zin was scheduled to be a speaker at a policy and geopolitics forum in Nepal later this month. The speaker biography says his research group founded in Yangon, the Institute for Strategy and Policy Myanmar, is “dedicated to promoting democratic leadership and strengthening civic participation in Myanmar.”

一家尼泊尔研究机构在5月的一则网络帖子中表示，敏辛原定于本月晚些时候在尼泊尔举行的政策与地缘政治论坛上担任发言人。发言人简介称，他在仰光创立的机构“缅甸战略与政策研究所”“致力于在缅甸促进民主领导力并加强公民参与”。

The biography also says he is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of California at Berkeley, and his research interests include civil-military relations, democratization and ethnic conflicts. His LinkedIn page says he has a master’s degree in political science from Berkeley, which he attended from 2010 to 2016.

简介还介绍称，他是加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的政治学博士候选人，其研究兴趣包括军政关系、民主化和民族冲突。他的领英页面显示，他拥有伯克利分校的政治学硕士学位，并于2010年至2016年在该校就读。

The handful of opinion pieces he has written for The New York Times have focused on those topics. Several were published soon after the Tatmadaw, the military of Myanmar, overthrew the elected government in early 2021.

他为《纽约时报》撰写的为数不多的几篇评论文章主要集中在这些主题上。其中几篇是在缅甸军方于2021年初推翻民选政府后不久发表的。

In an essay in June 2021, he said that the military and the opposition appeared to be locked in an “intolerable stalemate,” and that the Tatmadaw “appears to believe it can force its way to and through a next election by way of brutal crackdowns, by dissolving the once-ruling National League for Democracy and by threatening to imprison Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s former de facto leader, for the rest of her life.”

在2021年6月的一篇文章中，他指出军方与反对派似乎陷入了“无法忍受的僵局”，并且缅甸军方“似乎认为自己可以通过残酷镇压、解散曾经执政的全国民主联盟，以及威胁终生监禁该国前事实上的领导人昂山素季等方式强行推进下一次选举。”

At the same time, he wrote, the anti-coup movement, which included Gen Z protesters and civil servants, “has been shifting tactics away from predominantly peaceful demonstrations to more violent kinds of resistance.”

与此同时他写道，由Z世代抗议者和公职人员组成的反政变运动“策略已经从主要是和平示威转向更具暴力性质的抵抗”。

What Mr. Min Zin observed and predicted then has unfolded with force, and Myanmar is now engulfed in a civil war. The Myanmar military carries out airstrikes on civilian areas using Chinese and Russian-made weapons.

敏辛当时所观察和预测的情况随后鲜明地展现出来，缅甸如今已陷入内战。缅甸军方使用中国和俄罗斯制造的武器对平民地区实施空袭。

In recent years, U.S. officials have pressed for the release of some American citizens held in China, as well as for the liberation of several prominent non-American prisoners: Jimmy Lai, a British citizen and newspaper founder imprisoned by the Hong Kong authorities; Jin Mingri, a Chinese pastor with the English name of Ezra; and Dong Yuyu, a Chinese journalist and former Harvard fellow convicted on espionage charges widely believed to be false.

近年来，美国官员曾敦促释放一些被中国关押的美国公民，并呼吁释放几位知名的非美国籍囚犯：被香港当局监禁的英国公民、报社创办人黎智英；英文名为Ezra的中国牧师金明日；以及因间谍罪名被定罪（人们普遍认为这一指控不实）的中国记者、前哈佛大学研究员董郁玉。

Mr. Trump has said he plans to host Mr. Xi in Washington around Sept. 24 for a reciprocal visit.

特朗普表示，他计划于9月24日前后在华盛顿接待习近平回访。

Mr. Kamm said he was not hopeful that the summits would lead to prisoner releases by China.

康原表示，他对首脑会晤促成中国释放囚犯不抱太大希望。

“Human rights is not a priority for the U.S. government now in its dealings with China,” he said. “I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see any evidence to the contrary.”

“人权目前在美国政府同中国打交道时并不是优先事项，”他说。“我希望我是错的，但我没有看到任何相反的证据。”

The war in Ukraine has often been compared to World War I for its brutal infantry assaults and heavy casualties. Yet the idea that it could, by any measure, surpass a conflict so long and bloody that French soldiers hoped it would be “the last of the last” once seemed unthinkable.

乌克兰战争常被拿来与第一次世界大战相提并论，两者都有残酷的步兵冲锋和惨重的人员伤亡。然而，人们曾一度认为，无论从哪个角度衡量，这场战争都不可能超过第一次世界大战——那场冲突如此漫长而血腥，以至于法国士兵曾希望它会成为“最后一场战争中的最后一场”。

That is just what happened on Thursday. The war in Ukraine — which reached 1,569 days, or more than four years and three months — has now outlasted World War I.

但就在周四，这成为了现实。截至当天，乌克兰战争已持续1569天，即四年零三个多月，其时长已超过第一次世界大战。

When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia sent his troops into Ukraine in February 2022, he believed the country would fall within days. After Ukraine pushed the Russians back and the conflict settled into a war of attrition, even many of those fighting could not imagine it would last this long.

2022年2月，俄罗斯总统普京下令出兵乌克兰，以为数日之内便可将其拿下。乌克兰将俄军击退、冲突演变为消耗战之后，即使是许多参战者也无法想象战争会持续这么久。

“I thought maybe two or three years, and then politicians will find some kind of consensus,” said a Ukrainian soldier who, for security reasons, gave only his call sign, France, a nod to his time in the French Foreign Legion.

“我以为也许两三年，政客们就会找到某种共识，”一名乌克兰士兵说——出于安全考量，他只透露了自己的呼号“法兰西”，这个名字源于他曾在法国外籍军团服役的经历。

But the war has raged on, and, with peace talks stalled, it shows no sign of ending soon. Polls suggest that about half of Ukrainians believe it will not end before next year, which would push it closer to another threshold: the duration of World War II, which lasted six years. And there are many Ukrainians who would argue that the current war really began in 2014 when Russian troops seized Crimea.

然而战火持续燃烧，和谈陷入僵局，丝毫没有即将结束的迹象。民调显示，约半数乌克兰民众认为战争在明年之前不会结束，这将使其时长逼近另一个门槛：历时六年的第二次世界大战。而许多乌克兰人会说，这场战争实际上早在2014年俄军占领克里米亚时便已开始。

2022年2月25日，乌克兰战争爆发后第二天，哈尔科夫的乌克兰士兵。

Historians caution that drawing parallels with the two world wars has limits. The global scale of those conflicts, involving many theaters and armies, makes comparisons about casualties and firepower difficult. Ukraine did not exist as a country during World War I.

历史学家提醒说，将乌克兰战争与两次世界大战进行比较存在局限性。那两场战争横跨多个战场、席卷众多国家，在伤亡规模和火力对比上难以直接比较。而且第一次世界大战期间，乌克兰尚不是一个独立国家。

Still, the war in Ukraine, like World War I, is likely to rank among the most consequential conflicts in modern European history, said Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Ukrainian historian. Both wars transformed Europe’s geopolitics by reshaping military alliances and driving a defense buildup not seen in decades.

尽管如此，乌克兰历史学家雅罗斯拉夫·赫里察克认为，乌克兰战争与第一次世界大战一样，很可能跻身现代欧洲史上影响最为深远的冲突之列。两场战争都通过重塑军事联盟、推动数十年来罕见的大规模军备扩张，从根本上改变了欧洲的地缘政治格局。

Military analysts also note that both conflicts reshaped the nature of warfare through the introduction of new technologies — planes and tanks a century ago; drones across the air, sea and land today. In both cases, the advances made war only more brutal for humans.

军事分析人士还指出，两场冲突都借助新技术的引入重塑了战争形态——一个世纪前是飞机和坦克，如今则是穿梭于海陆空的无人机。而在这两种情形下，技术进步都让战争对人类而言变得更加残酷。

“In many respects, this war in Ukraine is the one that most closely resembles World War I,” said Michel Goya, a former French colonel and a military historian.

“从许多方面来看，乌克兰这场战争与第一次世界大战最为相似，”法国前上校、军事史专家米歇尔·戈亚说。

1918年，百日攻势期间的英国坦克。坦克是第一次世界大战中的重大技术突破之一。

The comparison begins with the opening phase of both wars. In 1914, the Germans launched a rapid offensive toward Paris in the hope of securing a swift victory. Russian forces had the same objective when they raced toward Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in 2022. In both cases, the attackers came close to their target but were ultimately driven back.

这种比较首先体现在两场战争的开局阶段。1914年，德国向巴黎发动闪电战，希望速战速决。2022年，俄军如出一辙，同样以迅雷之势直扑乌克兰首都基辅。在这两种情况下，进攻方都一度逼近目标，但最终被击退。

Eventually, both wars settled into mostly static fighting along a largely frozen front. When soldiers on the Ukrainian battlefield hunkered down in trenches and bunkers in late 2022, historians described it as a return to World War I-style trench warfare.

此后，两场战争都演变为沿着基本没有变化的战线展开的阵地战。2022年底，当乌克兰战场上的士兵蜷缩在战壕和掩体中时，历史学家将其描述为第一次世界大战式堑壕战的重现。

Scenes from the trenches of eastern Ukraine closely echoed those in northern France a century earlier. Ukrainian and Russian troops were often separated by just a few hundred yards, sometimes close enough to see one another. Assaults began with artillery barrages to pin down the opponent, followed by the storming of enemy trenches by infantry squads.

乌克兰东部战壕里的场景与一个世纪前法国北部的场景如出一辙。乌军与俄军士兵常常只相隔几百米，有时近到能看见对方。进攻以炮火压制开始，随后步兵小分队冲击敌方战壕。

“In general, when the front freezes, you’re back to World War I,” Mr. Goya said.

“总体而言，战线一旦坚持不动，你就回到了第一次世界大战，”戈亚说。

2024年，俄占城市顿涅茨克郊区缓冲区内一座被摧毁的村庄。

In both wars, he added, it was the intensity of firepower, mainly artillery, that forced armies to turn to trenches. “You bury yourself to protect yourself,” he said.

他补充道，在两场战争中，迫使军队钻进战壕的原因都是火力强度，尤其是炮兵火力。“你把自己埋起来是为了保护自己，”他说。

That calculus later changed in Ukraine with the introduction of a new class of weapon: drones. Networks of open trenches were rendered unsafe as drones monitored the battlefield around the clock and struck with greater precision than artillery shells.

然而在乌克兰，随着一类新式武器——无人机——的登场，这种战场逻辑发生了改变。开放式战壕网络变得极不安全，因为无人机能够全天候监视战场，打击精度远超炮弹。

Now, Ukrainian soldiers say, survival depends on going smaller and deeper. Instead of sprawling trench systems, troops shelter in dugouts housing no more than a handful of soldiers. Such bunkers are small enough to be difficult to spot from the sky and deep enough to withstand strikes. A soldier operating on his own will often dig a position barely larger than a foxhole.

乌克兰士兵现在说，要想生存就必须把掩体建得更小、更深。与其修建绵延的大型战壕系统，士兵们更倾向于躲藏在只能容纳几个人的小型地下掩体中。这些掩体足够小，难以从空中发现；同时又足够深，可以承受打击。单兵作战时，往往只挖一个略大于散兵坑的藏身之处。

2024年，乌克兰托列茨克附近，一名乌克兰士兵正在为一架武装无人机做准备。无人机改变了战争形态，迫使士兵转入地下深处，并限制了前线周边数英里范围内的行动。

In a recent interview near Ukraine’s southern front, a Ukrainian commander, who also only gave his call sign, Sour, for security reasons, recalled how his troops had to storm a well-fortified Russian dugout four times before forcing the soldier inside to surrender. The dugout had right-angled corners reinforced with metal sheets designed to absorb an explosive shock wave, he said.

近期在乌克兰南部战线附近的一次采访中，一名乌克兰指挥官（同样出于安全原因只透露了呼号“酸”）回忆起他的部队四度强攻一处工事坚固的俄军掩体，才逼得里面的士兵投降。他说，那处掩体设有直角转折结构，并以金属板加固，专门用于吸收爆炸冲击波。

The commander, who leads the 5th Center of the International Legion, part of Ukraine’s military intelligence forces, said he took the captured Russian soldier to his unit’s training ground and asked him to dig a similar position so he could study how it was built.

这名隶属于乌克兰军事情报部队国际军团第五中心的指挥官表示，他将被俘的俄罗斯士兵带到训练场，让其挖掘一处同样的掩体，以便研究构造。

“In this environment, the people who dig survive longer and stay safer,” France, the Ukrainian soldier, said.

“在这种环境下，会挖掩体的人活得更久，也更安全，”那名呼号为“法兰西”的乌克兰士兵说。

As drones have come to dominate the battlefield, World War I-style opposing trench networks, separated by a narrow buffer zone, have given way to a miles-wide contested combat area scattered with dugouts. In this “kill zone,” any movement is quickly targeted by drones.

随着无人机主宰战场，一战时期那种由狭窄缓冲区隔开的两军对垒战壕网络已让位于纵深数英里、遍布分散掩体的争夺区域。在这片“死亡地带”，任何移动都会迅速遭到无人机锁定。

Large-scale troop assaults of the kind seen a century ago have become all but impossible under the constant gaze of drones. Such assaults have been replaced with attacks by just one or two soldiers.

在无人机的持续监视下，一个世纪前那种大规模步兵冲锋几乎已成历史，取而代之的是一两名士兵组成的小规模袭击行动。

1916年，索姆河战役期间，法国博蒙阿梅尔附近的英国士兵。

Tanks, first introduced in 1916, were still a feared weapon in the first years of the war in Ukraine. They are rarely used now because their size makes them easy targets for drones, though some tanks have been retrofitted with protective metal cages that turn them into “Mad Max”-style vehicles.

1916年首次亮相的坦克在乌克兰战争初期仍是令人胆寒的武器，如今却鲜少使用——庞大的体积使其极易成为无人机的靶子，尽管部分坦克已加装金属防护笼，摇身变为“疯狂麦克斯”式的战车。

While the battlefield today bears less and less resemblance to that of a century ago, the scale of the destruction looks remarkably similar.

虽然今天的战场与一个世纪前的相似之处越来越少，但破坏的规模却惊人地相似。

In Ukrainian command posts near the front, live footage from reconnaissance drones shows scenes reminiscent of World War I battlefields: splintered trees, ruined houses and fields pockmarked by shell craters.

在靠近前线的乌克兰指挥所内，侦察无人机传回的实时画面呈现出与第一次世界大战战场如出一辙的景象：东倒西歪的树桩、毁坏的房屋，以及布满弹坑的田野。

Casualties are difficult to compare, given the difference in scale between the two wars. A century ago, millions of soldiers were sent into battle across multiple fronts in Europe. Today, the forces involved number in the hundreds of thousands. Roughly nine million to 11 million soldiers died in World War I, compared with about half a million in Ukraine so far.

鉴于两场战争的规模不同，伤亡数字难以直接比较。一个世纪前，数百万士兵被派往欧洲多个战场作战。今天，参战兵力在数十万左右。一战中约有900万至1100万士兵死亡，而到目前为止，乌克兰战争约有50万人死亡。

Still, military analysts and officials, including Adm. Pierre Vandier, who holds the post of Supreme Allied Commander Transformation in NATO, say drones have made the Ukrainian battlefield lethal at levels comparable to World War I. Admiral Vandier made the comparison after a study trip to Ukraine this spring.

尽管如此，包括北约盟军转型最高司令部司令皮埃尔·旺迪耶上将在内的军事分析人士和官员认为，无人机已经让乌克兰战场的致命程度达到与第一次世界大战相当的水平。旺迪耶上将在今春赴乌克兰实地考察后作出了这一评价。

去年，在乌克兰东部，医护人员正在救治一名被俄军无人机炸伤的乌克兰士兵。

So grinding is the fighting in Ukraine that Russian advances have at times been slower than those in some of World War I’s most deadlocked battles.

乌克兰的战事如此胶着，以至于俄军的推进速度有时甚至慢于第一次世界大战中若干最为僵持的战役。

Russia’s offensive on Pokrovsk, an eastern Ukrainian city it recently fully captured, progressed at an average pace of about 75 yards per day, slower than in the bloody Battle of the Somme during World War I, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

根据位于华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心的分析，俄罗斯最近完全占领乌克兰东部城市波克罗夫斯克的攻势，平均推进速度约为每天70米，比“一战”中血腥惨烈的索姆河战役还要慢。

The question now is whether either side can break the deadlock.

眼下的问题是，哪一方能够打破僵局。

In World War I, the Allies prevailed by combining economic pressure on Germany through a tight naval blockade with military pressure through relentless offensives.

在第一次世界大战中，协约国凭借严密的海上封锁对德国施加经济压力，同时以不间断的军事攻势形成双重挤压，最终赢得胜利。

Ukraine’s strategy to end the war carries some echoes of that approach.

乌克兰当前结束战争的战略也带有这种思路的影子。

Drone strikes on Russia’s oil assets, the backbone of its economy, are designed to curb Moscow’s ability to finance its war effort. Kyiv lacks the manpower to replicate the offensives of World War I, but it has flooded the battlefield with small attack drones in the hope of inflicting unsustainable losses on the Russian Army.

通过无人机打击俄罗斯经济的支柱——石油资产，乌克兰旨在削弱莫斯科为其战争机器提供资金的能力。基辅缺乏复制一战中那种攻势的人力，但它在战场上大量投放小型攻击无人机，希望以此给俄军造成难以承受的持续损耗。

“This is World War I, but with drones,” Mr. Hrytsak, the historian, said.

“这就是第一次世界大战，只不过加上了无人机，”历史学家赫里察克说。

2024年，托列茨克附近的前线。

When SpaceX starts trading this week, one group will be noticeably absent from the frenzy: investors from China and Hong Kong. They are also likely to miss out on the upcoming initial public offering for OpenAI.

当SpaceX于本周开始上市交易时，狂热的人群中将明显缺少一个群体：来自中国大陆和香港的投资者。他们很可能也会错过OpenAI即将进行的首次公开募股。

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket maker and artificial intelligence company, has excluded investors in China and Hong Kong from participating in its I.P.O., according to five people with knowledge of the decision, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

据五位知情人士透露，埃隆·马斯克旗下的火箭制造及人工智能公司SpaceX已将中国大陆和香港的投资者排除在其首次公开募股的参与范围之外。由于未获授权公开表态，这些人士要求不具名。

OpenAI, another leading A.I. company, is likely to impose the same restriction when it goes public this year, said three people with knowledge of the discussion. The company has already barred Chinese investors from participating in private fund-raising rounds, one of those people said.

三位了解相关讨论的人士表示，另一家领先的人工智能公司OpenAI在今年上市时，也很可能会施加同样的限制。其中一人透露，该公司此前已经禁止了中国投资者参与其私募轮。

The A.I. companies have not disclosed why they are hesitant to accept investments from the region, and it’s unclear whether the move is being made with input from the Trump administration. But Washington has been focused on keeping artificial intelligence out of China’s reach. Both companies count the U.S. government as major clients.

这些人工智能公司尚未披露它们为何不愿接受来自该地区的投资，目前也不清楚这一举动是否受到特朗普政府的影响。但华盛顿方面一直致力于让中国无法获取人工智能技术。这两家公司都将美国政府视为其主要客户。

While Chinese investors have largely been shut out of private investments in sensitive sectors for years, this is most likely the first time investors in mainland China and Hong Kong have been excluded from a major American I.P.O., bankers in the region say.

该地区的银行家们表示，尽管多年来中国投资者在敏感领域的私募投资基本上已被隔绝，但这很可能是中国大陆和香港的投资者首次被排除在大型美国公司的首次公开募股之外。

It highlights how the United States and China have steadily scaled back trade, investment and collaboration — especially in sensitive sectors involving technology and science.

这凸显了美国和中国是如何在稳步缩减贸易、投资与合作的——尤其是在涉及技术和科学的敏感领域。

埃隆·马斯克今年5月在北京。SpaceX尚未说明其为何不愿接受来自中国和香港的投资。

“The restrictions reflect a broader trend among American technology and A.I. companies, many of which have become increasingly reluctant to accept Chinese investment, driven by concerns over national security, intellectual property protection and data governance,” said Han Lin, a director for the Asia Group, a consulting firm, and a former senior Wells Fargo banker in China.

咨询机构亚洲集团主管、前富国银行驻华高级银行家林汉昇表示：“这些限制反映了美国技术和人工智能公司之间的一个整体趋势，出于对国家安全、知识产权保护和数据治理的担忧，许多公司越来越不愿意接受中国的投资。”

News that SpaceX would bar Chinese investors from its I.P.O. was reported earlier by Bloomberg.

有关SpaceX将禁止中国投资者参与其首次公开募股的消息此前已由彭博社报道。

As recently as last month, investors from mainland China and Hong Kong were allowed to participate in the blockbuster I.P.O. of Cerebras, an American maker of chips used to train artificial intelligence models.

就在上个月，来自中国大陆和香港的投资者还被允许参与Cerebras大获成功的首次公开募股，这是一家制造人工智能模型训练芯片的美国公司。

But Washington and Beijing have been rapidly erecting barriers to trade and investment, complicating matters for investors and the banks that help facilitate cross-border deals.

但华盛顿和北京方面一直在迅速筑起贸易和投资壁垒，使投资者以及协助促进跨境交易的银行面临更加复杂化的局面。

Last week, China tightened restrictions on the flow of money out of the country and announced plans to screen companies seeking to expand overseas, blocking plans for companies deemed strategically important.

上周，中国收紧了对资金外流的限制，并宣布计划对寻求向海外扩张的公司进行审查，从而阻断了被认为具有战略重要性的公司的计划。

Several weeks earlier, the House Select Committee on China accused JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley of failing to conduct adequate due diligence when helping Chinese companies go public.

就在几周前，众议院中国问题特设委员会指责摩根大通、美国银行和摩根士丹利在协助中国公司上市时未能进行充分的尽职调查。

Staying on the right side of the U.S. government is especially important for SpaceX and OpenAI. It is SpaceX’s biggest customer, accounting for roughly $4 billion in revenue last year. This year, OpenAI announced that it would provide artificial intelligence technologies for the Defense Department’s classified systems.

与美国政府保持良好的关系对SpaceX和OpenAI来说尤为重要。美国政府是SpaceX最大的客户，去年为其带来了约40亿美元的收入。今年，OpenAI宣布它将为国防部的机密系统提供人工智能技术。

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has used industrial policy to strengthen his country’s control over critical supply chains and industries, part of a broader push for self-reliance that Beijing views as a national security imperative. The policies have strengthened China’s dominance in global trade and heightened tensions with the United States.

中国最高领导人习近平利用产业政策强化了本国对关键供应链和行业的控制，这是北京视为国家安全要务的自给自足总体努力的一部分。这些政策巩固了中国在全球贸易中的主导地位，并加剧了与美国的紧张关系。

Cerebras上个月在纳斯达克上市。中国投资者被允许参与其火爆的IPO。

During his first term, President Trump used tariffs and other measures to pressure companies to move manufacturing out of China. The Biden administration expanded those efforts, restricting U.S. investment in Chinese quantum computing, semiconductors and A.I. in an effort to slow China’s technological advances.

在其第一任期内，特朗普总统曾利用关税等措施施压企业将制造业迁出中国。拜登政府扩大了这些努力，限制美国在华投资量子计算、半导体和人工智能，以此试图减缓中国的技术进步。

Washington also reviews foreign investments and acquisitions in sensitive sectors through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. The Pentagon maintains a blacklist of companies that it says support China’s military, including major technology companies such as Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu, as well as the electric vehicle maker BYD.

华盛顿还通过美国外资投资委员会审查敏感领域的外国投资和收购。五角大楼维持着一份据称支持中国军方的企业黑名单，其中包括腾讯、阿里巴巴和百度等大型科技公司，以及电动汽车制造商比亚迪。

China has responded by building its own web of export controls and investment restrictions, measures that American and European companies say have made it increasingly difficult to do business in China.

中国对此做出的回应是建立了自己的出口管制和投资限制网络，美国和欧洲企业表示，这些措施使得在华开展业务变得越来越困难。

But any moves by SpaceX and OpenAI appear to be voluntary, said Aaron Bartnick, who was a White House tech policy official during the Biden administration.

但曾在拜登政府担任白宫技术政策官员的亚伦·巴特尼克表示，SpaceX和OpenAI的任何举动似乎都属于自愿行为。

“This is a very clear sign of not just the trade decoupling but also the technology and capital decoupling that is occurring between the U.S. and China,” he said.

“这不仅是贸易脱钩的明确信号，也是美中之间正在发生的技术和资本脱钩的明确信号，”他说。

Mr. Bartnick, who oversaw policy on CFIUS and outbound investment controls, said the decisions by leading technology companies could become a template for the industry. He said he would not be surprised if others followed suit, including Anthropic, which announced its plans to go public last week.

负责监管外资投资委员会政策及对外投资管制的巴特尼克表示，领先科技公司的决策可能会成为该行业的模板。他表示，如果其他公司纷纷效仿，包括上周宣布计划上市的Anthropic，他不会感到惊讶。

“It is tempting to label this an overreaction because it appears to be voluntary,” Mr. Bartnick said. “But a lot of American companies will look to companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX as leaders.”

“人们很容易会觉得这是反应过度，因为这看起来是出于自愿的，”巴特尼克说。“但许多美国公司会把OpenAI、Anthropic和SpaceX这样的公司视为领导者。”

Japan led the world in robotics for decades.

几十年来，日本在机器人领域一直引领世界。

More than 50 years ago, Japanese researchers captured imaginations with the first robot capable of grasping objects and walking on two legs. In 1984, a team in Japan built one that could read sheet music and play the piano. When Honda unveiled its first humanoid in 2000, it seemed to cement the country’s lead.

五十多年前，日本研究人员推出了全球首台能够抓取物体并用双腿行走的机器人，令人啧啧称奇。1984年，日本的一个团队制造出一台能够识读乐谱并弹奏钢琴的机器人。2000年，本田推出其首款人形机器人，似乎巩固了日本的领先地位。

But now, just as tech investors, start-up founders and government officials around the world are betting that artificial intelligence will spur growth for robots, that lead no longer belongs to Japan.

但如今，就在世界各地的科技投资者、初创公司创始人和政府官员都押注人工智能将推动机器人增长之际，这一领先地位已不再属于日本。

It belongs to China.

它属于中国。

Last month at the Humanoids Summit, a robotics conference in Tokyo, what could have been a victory lap for an industry built on decades of development and investment instead centered on a different topic: how Japanese companies can break through in a market increasingly dominated by Chinese rivals.

上个月在东京举行的人形机器人峰会本应成为这个建立在数十年发展和投资基础上的产业的胜利庆典，但峰会聚焦的却是另一个主题：日本企业如何在日益被中国竞争对手主导的市场中突围。

Investors urged Japanese companies to find niches where they could compete even if they couldn’t match Chinese firms on price. A dancing robot from China’s Unitree Robotics drew the largest crowds. Two Japanese firms also used Unitree robots to demonstrate their software.

投资者敦促日本企业寻找能够与中国竞争的利基市场，尽管它们无法在价格上与中国企业匹敌。一款来自中国企业宇树科技的舞蹈机器人吸引了最多的观众。两家日本公司还使用宇树的机器人来展示自己的软件。

中国企业如今主导着人形机器人的供应链。在深圳，技术人员正在组装让机器人能“看见”的传感器。

Chinese manufacturers dominate the humanoid robot supply chain. Start-ups like Unitree are producing thousands of humanoids that sell for less than $5,000 each, a pace and price that competitors in Japan and elsewhere struggle to match. Chinese robots once depended on Japanese and other foreign suppliers for components such as sensors and joints. But these days, those parts are made in China, too.

中国制造商主导了人形机器人供应链。宇树等初创公司正在生产数千台人形机器人，每台售价不到5000美元，这种速度和价格让日本及其他地区的竞争对手难以匹敌。中国机器人曾经依赖日本和其他外国供应商提供传感器和关节等零部件。但如今，这些零部件也已在中国制造。

It has become nearly impossible to build a humanoid robot without parts from Chinese companies, said Ming Hsun Lee, the head of greater China autos and industrials at BofA Global Research, a unit of Bank of America.

美国银行旗下的美银全球研究大中华区汽车与工业研究主管李明勋表示，如今几乎不可能在不使用中国产零部件的情况下制造出一台人形机器人。

“The component cost in China has gone down way too fast — other countries can’t compete,” Mr. Lee said.

“中国的零部件成本下降得实在太快了——其他国家无法竞争，”李明勋说。

But making humanoid robots has proved easier to achieve than finding a purpose for them. Even robotics executives acknowledge that today’s models are far from performing the types of jobs that have fueled the industry’s excitement.

但事实证明，制造人形机器人比为它们找到用途更容易。即使是机器人行业高管也承认，目前的模型还远不能完成那些可以激发产业兴趣的工作。

And though the promise of humanoids remains unfulfilled, China has established a commanding lead in a segment of the robotics industry that is economically useful: factory automation.

虽然人形机器人的承诺尚未兑现，但中国已在机器人行业中一个具有经济价值的细分领域——工厂自动化——确立了压倒性领先地位。

China has been making and installing factory robots at a pace unmatched by any other country. In 2024, more than two million robots were operating in Chinese factories, and another 300,000 were installed — more than in the rest of the world combined. Industrial robot installations declined in each of the next largest markets: Japan, the United States, South Korea and Germany.

中国制造和安装工厂机器人的速度是其他任何国家都无法比拟的。2024年，中国工厂有超过200万台机器人在运行，另外还新装了30万台——比世界其他地区安装量总和还要多。在接下来的几个最大市场——日本、美国、韩国和德国，工业机器人安装量均出现下降。

包括宇树科技在内的中国机器人公司仍严重依赖英伟达的仿真软件来训练机器人在现实世界中感知、推理和行动。深圳的电子市场越来越多地展示着该市不断发展的机器人产业所需的零部件。

Earlier this month, Chinese regulators announced a campaign to encourage local governments and state-owned firms to identify industrial use cases for humanoid robots.

本月早些时候，中国监管机构宣布了一项行动，鼓励地方政府和国有企业为人形机器人寻找工业应用场景。

China’s lead in the race to build robots that move and act like humans is closely tied to the rise of its electric vehicle industry. China has become the largest E.V. exporter through decades of government investment and a strategy focused on producing nearly every component domestically, from screws to lithium-ion batteries.

中国在制造举手投足如同人类的机器人方面领先与其电动汽车产业的崛起密切相关。通过数十年的政府投资，以及专注于从螺丝到锂离子电池几乎所有零部件都实现本土生产的战略，中国已成为最大的电动汽车出口国。

Now, many companies that manufacture parts for electric vehicles are supplying robot makers, too.

如今，许多生产电动汽车零部件的公司也在为机器人制造商供货。

“If a company can make auto components, then probably it can also do humanoids,” Mr. Lee said.

“如果一家公司能制造汽车零部件，那么它很可能也能做人形机器人，”李明勋说。

Tesla, the American electric car company, kicked off China’s E.V. boom with its giant factory in Shanghai. The supplier network that grew around Tesla also serves the company’s robotics business.

美国电动汽车公司特斯拉在上海的大型工厂开启了中国电动汽车的繁荣。围绕特斯拉发展起来的供应商网络也服务于该公司的机器人业务。

Although Tesla had pushed to build a separate supply chain for customers outside China, it still relies on Chinese manufacturers for at least 70 percent of its components, Mr. Lee said.

虽然特斯拉曾推动为中国以外的客户建立独立的供应链，但李明勋表示，它仍依赖中国制造商提供至少70%的零部件。

The factory floors of China’s electric vehicle makers, including BYD and Xiaomi, have also become among the first places to deploy humanoid robots for simple tasks like carrying items.

中国电动汽车制造商——包括比亚迪和小米——的工厂车间也成为最早的一些部署人形机器人执行搬运物品等简单任务的地方。

Some of those robots were built by UBTech. In Shenzhen, the center of China’s tech industry, the company is surrounded by suppliers, many of which once made parts for electric vehicles before moving into robotics. UBTech can source almost any part within hours, said Michael Tam, the company’s chief brand officer.

其中一些机器人由优必选制造。在中国科技产业中心深圳，该公司周围环绕着众多供应商，其中许多此前生产电动汽车零部件，后来转向机器人领域。优必选首席品牌官谭旻表示，公司可以在几小时内采购到几乎所有零部件。

在深圳优必选展区展示的机器人组件。深圳的优必选身处密集的供应商网络之中，像摄像头、电池和屏幕这样的组件只需数小时就能采购到位。

Many parts are 3-D printed. “I can send a design map by 9 a.m. and get the printed components by noon,” Mr. Tam said. “If one supplier tells me they’re fully booked, I just call another.”

许多零部件采用3D打印。“我上午9点发设计图，中午就能拿到打印好的零部件，”谭旻说。“如果一家供应商告诉我他们已经排满，我就打给另一家。”

More than 90 percent of the components in UBTech’s robots come from Chinese companies, Mr. Tam said. The main items it still imports are computer chips to control the robots’ movements.

谭旻表示，优必选机器人90%以上的零部件来自中国企业。它仍需进口的主要是用于控制机器人运动的计算机芯片。

Nearby in Shenzhen, RoboSense, a maker of light detection and ranging, or lidar, sensors for assisted-driving systems, started a robotics business in 2024.

在深圳附近，激光雷达传感器制造商速腾聚创于2024年启动了机器人业务，该公司此前为辅助驾驶系统提供传感器。

Yang Xiansheng, the company’s vice president of robotics, said RoboSense would have looked to Japanese firms in the past for parts for its automated production lines.

速腾聚创机器人业务副总裁杨先声表示，过去他们会找日本企业拿自动化生产线所需的零部件。

“That’s no longer the case,” Mr. Yang said. “Chinese suppliers now offer far more choices.”

“现在情况不同了，”杨先声说。“中国供应商现在提供了多得多的选择。”

Chinese investors poured over $5 billion into humanoid robot start-ups in 2025, equaling the total amount over the previous five years. In the first five months of this year, investment in the industry exceeded last year’s total by nearly $1 billion.

2025年，中国投资者向人形机器人初创公司投入超过50亿美元，相当于此前五年的总和。今年前五个月，该行业的投资已比去年全年高出近10亿美元。

The surge underscores a growing belief that humanoid robots could become one of the most significant ways artificial intelligence takes physical form in the world. Dozens of Chinese start-ups are working to capitalize on that vision.

这一激增凸显出一种日益增长的信念：人形机器人可能成为人工智能在现实世界中最重要的实体存在形式之一。数十家中国初创公司正致力于抓住这一愿景。

深圳的一个电子市场，这里可以租到人形机器人。在深圳的速腾聚创，一台机器人正在学习如何拆箱和折叠纸箱。

In March, Unitree filed to go public in Shanghai. The company said last week that it had passed a regulatory review that could put it on track to start selling shares within weeks. The offering is expected to be one of China’s largest this year, and nearly 50 other robotics-related companies are waiting to list shares in Hong Kong.

今年3月，宇树向上海证券交易所提交了上市申请。该公司上周表示已通过监管审查，可能在数周内开始出售股份。此次发行预计将成为今年中国规模最大的IPO之一，另有近50家机器人相关公司正在等待在香港上市。

Last year, UBTech produced 1,000 humanoids. This year, it intends to make 10 times as many.

去年，优必选生产了1000台人形机器人。今年，它计划生产10倍于此的数量。

Founders and investors envision humanoids handling dangerous tasks like monitoring factories for chemical leaks and carrying heavy loads.

创始人和投资者设想人形机器人能承担危险任务，例如监测工厂化学品泄漏和搬运重物。

But the robots currently struggle to adapt to the changing world around them. The humanoids that have drawn international attention for dancing in sync at events like China’s televised Lunar New Year special were following preprogrammed scripts.

但这些机器人目前仍难以适应周围不断变化的世界。那些在中国春节晚会等活动中同步舞蹈、吸引国际关注的人形机器人，实际上是在按照预编程的脚本做动作。

Chinese companies have also struggled to build software capable of simulating the real world well enough to train robots how to think and act. For that, many rely on simulation software from Nvidia, the American chip maker. Last month, Jensen Huang, its chief executive, announced a partnership with Unitree on a line of robots that will use Nvidia chips and software for reasoning and decision making. The robots are expected to be available in October.

中国公司在构建足以模拟真实世界、从而训练机器人思考和行动的软件方面也面临困难。为此，许多公司依赖美国芯片制造商英伟达的仿真软件。上个月，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋宣布与宇树合作，推出一系列将使用英伟达芯片和软件进行推理与决策的机器人。这些机器人预计将于10月上市。

Most of the humanoids that Unitree has sold in the past two years have gone to universities, laboratories and other research settings, where developers are exploring how software interacts with robot hardware. Few are performing actual labor.

过去两年宇树销售的大多数人形机器人主要流向大学、实验室和其他研究机构，开发者在那里探索软件如何与机器人硬件交互。很少有机器人真正从事实际劳动。

2025年，中国投资者向人形机器人初创公司投入了超过50亿美元，这相当于过去五年的总投资额。陈小立是宇树科技的一名总监，该公司生产的人形机器人售价最低不到5000美元。

Some UBTech robots carry boxes and perform basic manual labor in electric vehicle factories. But they remain far less productive than humans. The robots, said Mr. Tam, the UBTech executive, are currently only about 30 percent as efficient as human workers, though the company hopes to raise that figure to 50 percent this year.

部分优必选机器人在电动汽车工厂搬运箱子并从事基本体力劳动。但它们的生产效率仍远低于人类。优必选高管谭旻表示，目前这些机器人的效率仅相当于人类工人的30%左右，不过公司希望今年提高到50%。

At the Humanoids Summit in Tokyo, Xiaoli Chen, a director at Unitree, said creating robots capable of complex decision making in rapidly changing settings remained a challenge.

在东京的人形机器人峰会上，宇树公司总监陈小立（音）表示，制造能够在快速变化的环境中进行复杂决策的机器人仍然是一大挑战。

“Unitree has gotten a lot of attention and had a lot of events, but this is not productivity,” he said. “The long horizon of doing jobs in complicated environments is still not solved yet.”

“宇树获得了很多关注，也举办了很多活动，但这不是生产力，”他说。“在复杂环境中从事长期工作的难题仍未解决。”

Iñaki Echeverría-Huarte, an applied physicist at the University of Navarra in Spain, was studying whether people maintain a certain distance between one another while walking when he noticed something strange. Across some 40 experiments, most of his participants spontaneously veered to the left.

在研究人们行走时是否会彼此保持一定距离时，西班牙纳瓦拉大学的应用物理学家伊尼亚基·埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特注意到了一些奇怪的现象。在大约40个实验中，大多数参与者会不自觉地向左偏转。

Although this observation had nothing to do with his original research, it piqued his curiosity. “This was the first signal that something weird was happening,” Dr. Echeverría-Huarte said.

尽管这一观察结果与他最初的研究无关，却激起了他的好奇心。“这是第一个信号，表明有些奇怪的事情正在发生，”埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特博士说。

He and his colleagues assumed there must be a straightforward explanation. Perhaps the layout of the room, for example, was subtly directing people to list to the left. They began what they thought would be a simple investigation to find the answer.

他和同事们起初认为，这背后必定有一个简单明了的解释。例如，许是房间布局在不知不觉中引导人们向左倾斜。他们开始着手调查，并认为这会是一项很容易找到答案的研究。

Five years later, Dr. Echeverría-Huarte and his colleagues have exhausted most of their hypotheses and are no closer to solving the mystery. But what they have found, as reported on Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications, is a striking, innate tendency for people across demographics, cultures and conditions to veer in a counterclockwise direction.

五年过去了，埃切维里亚-瓦尔特博士和同事们已穷尽了大多数假设，却仍未解开这个谜团。不过，正如他们周三在《自然·通讯》期刊上发表的论文所报告的那样，他们发现了一个引人注目的现象：不同人口群体、不同文化背景、不同实验条件下的人都表现出逆时针运动的天然倾向。

“In principle, there is no reason for the fact that people prefer rotating counterclockwise,” said Iker Zuriguel, an applied physicist at the University of Navarra and a co-author of the study. Yet it’s clear they do.

“原则上，没有理由认为人们会偏好逆时针旋转，”该研究的共同作者、纳瓦拉大学应用物理学家伊克尔·苏里格尔说。然而事实摆在眼前，人们确实如此。

Dr. Zuriguel and Dr. Echeverría-Huarte first searched in the scientific literature for an explanation as to why this might be so. They found a study showing that people who are lost usually wander in circles — but it did not specify the direction.

苏里格尔博士和埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特博士首先在科学文献中寻找对此现象可能存在的解释。他们发现了一项研究，显示迷路的人通常会绕圈走——但并未指明方向。

They found another paper showing that when people encounter a wall, those who are right-handed tend to turn left, while those who are left-handed do the opposite. Most of the participants in the original study were right-handed, so “the moment we saw that, we said, ‘OK, we have an answer,’” Dr. Zuriguel said.

他们还找到另一篇论文，表明当人们遇到墙壁时，惯用右手的人倾向于向左转，惯用左手的人则相反。由于原始研究的大多数参与者是右撇子，所以“当我们看到那一点时，我们说，‘好了，有答案了，’”苏里格尔博士说。

To check, they ran their own trial. They separated participants according to whether they turned left or right when directed to approach a wall. They then asked the participants to walk around a small arena. To the researchers’ surprise, regardless of the wall-turning preferences or handedness, most chose left.

为了验证这一点，他们进行了自己的实验。他们根据参与者在接近墙壁时选择向左转还是向右转进行分组，然后要求他们在一个小型场地内行走。令研究人员惊讶的是，无论参与者的转向偏好或惯用手如何，大多数人都选择了向左移动。

This baffling finding prompted them to undertake five additional experiments, each targeting a different hypothesis and involving a total of 573 participants. Yet again and again, they found the same result. In an open schoolyard, for example, the researchers instructed participants to roam at will while a drone recorded their movements. Within seconds, 80 percent of people were moving in a counterclockwise direction. “It’s not a gradual drift but rather a bias that emerges almost immediately,” Dr. Echeverría-Huarte said.

这个令人困惑的发现促使他们进行了另外五项实验，每项实验针对一个不同的假设，总共涉及573名参与者。然而，他们一次又一次地得到了相同的结果。例如，在一个开放的校园操场上，研究人员让参与者随意走动，同时用无人机记录他们的行动轨迹。几秒钟内，80%的人开始沿逆时针方向移动。“这不是逐渐的偏移，而是一种几乎立刻显现出来的倾向，”埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特博士说。

Dr. Echeverría-Huarte and his colleagues wondered if the behavior might be emerging collectively, similar to how pedestrians split into two opposite-moving lanes on crowded sidewalks. But when they tested participants alone, 75 percent still moved counterclockwise, suggesting that the tendency is individual.

埃切维里亚-瓦尔特博士和同事们怀疑，这种行为是否是一种集体效应，就像拥挤人行道上的行人会自动分成两个相反方向流动的队列一样。但当他们让参与者单独进行测试时，仍有75%的人朝逆时针方向移动，表明这一倾向属于个体行为。

Were there cultural factors behind that preference? Pedestrians, for example, typically walk on the same side as cars drive on in their country, and pedestrians also typically move in that direction if they encounter an obstacle. So the team ran experiments in Japan, where pedestrian lanes form on the left. Despite being convinced they would see the opposite pattern to the one in Spain, the researchers yet again observed participants moving counterclockwise, ruling cultural norms off the list.

这种偏好背后会不会存在文化因素呢？例如，行人通常会按照本国车辆行驶方向相同的一侧行走，在遇到障碍物时也往往会朝那个方向移动。因此，研究团队在日本进行了实验，因为日本的人行通道通常靠左通行。尽管研究人员原本确信会看到与西班牙完全相反的模式，但他们再次观察到参与者朝逆时针方向移动，从而将文化习惯排除在可能原因之外。

Finally, they wondered if some unacknowledged social convention drilled into adults, but not yet present in children, might be at play. They reached out to researchers who had conducted a prior study in a Japanese kindergarten in which 52 children moved at random while music played. The Japanese researchers shared their videos of the children for analysis — revealing that most of them also moved counterclockwise.

最后，他们想知道，是否某种在成年人身上根深蒂固、但尚未在儿童身上出现的未被察觉的社会惯例在起作用。他们联系了此前在一所日本幼儿园进行过一项研究的研究人员，在那项研究中，52名儿童伴随着音乐随机走动。日本研究人员分享了他们拍摄的视频以供分析——结果显示，大多数儿童也是逆时针移动。

Enrico Ronchi, who models emergency evacuations at Lund University in Sweden and was not involved in the research, said the findings “open up many new, interesting avenues in the field of crowd dynamics.”

瑞典隆德大学研究紧急疏散模型的学者恩里科·龙基表示（他未参与这项研究），这些发现“为群体动力学领域开辟了许多全新而有趣的研究方向”。

He would be interested to see, for example, whether the counterclockwise bias holds up among people with disabilities, or in emergency evacuations.

他表示，很想知道逆时针偏向在残障人士或紧急疏散情境下是否依然成立。

Karol Bacik, an applied mathematician at M.I.T. who was also not involved in the research, said the new finding challenges our understanding of human locomotion. “The counterclockwise bias may have far-reaching consequences for everyday pedestrian traffic, but we simply have not looked for them yet,” he said.

同样未参与该研究的麻省理工学院应用数学家卡罗尔·巴齐克表示，这一新发现挑战了我们对人类运动方式的理解。“逆时针偏向可能对日常行人交通产生深远影响，只是我们此前从未留意过，”他说。

Dr. Zuriguel and Dr. Echeverría-Huarte next plan to investigate new hypotheses about the counterclockwise bias using biomechanics, virtual reality, neuroscience or even animal behavior. “Fish are the canonical animal that move in circles,” Dr. Zuriguel said. “But whether they prefer rotating in one direction or the other, I don’t know.”

接下来，苏里格尔博士和埃切维里亚-瓦尔特博士计划从生物力学、虚拟现实、神经科学，甚至动物行为学等角度，继续探索关于这种逆时针偏好的新假说。“鱼类是典型的绕圈运动动物。”苏里格尔博士说，“但它们是否偏好某一方向，我还真不知道。”

Last summer, as pressure mounted on the Trump administration to release material it held on Jeffrey Epstein, the president’s top advisers gathered in a series of meetings, many of them in the White House Situation Room — typically used during national-security crises — as they struggled to contain a scandal engulfing Donald Trump himself. The discussions included the vice president, JD Vance; the White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles; the White House counsel, David Warrington; the deputy attorney general, Todd Blanche; and the F.B.I. director, Kash Patel, among others.

去年夏天，随着要求特朗普政府公布其所掌握的杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关材料的压力不断增大，总统的高级顾问们召开了一系列会议，其中许多是在白宫战情室举行——这个房间通常用于应对国家安全危机——试图遏制一场波及唐纳德·特朗普本人的丑闻。与会者包括副总统JD·万斯、白宫办公厅主任苏茜·怀尔斯、白宫法律顾问戴维·沃林顿、司法部副部长托德·布兰奇以及联邦调查局局长卡什·帕特尔等人。

The reporting, which documents many previously undisclosed conversations and conflicts, is drawn from our forthcoming book “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.” We discovered how the Epstein files consumed and often paralyzed the highest levels of the Trump administration, far more than the public knew.

这篇摘自我们即将出版的新书《政权更迭：唐纳德·特朗普的帝王式总统任期内幕》(Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump)的报道记录了诸多此前未披露的谈话与冲突。我们发现，爱泼斯坦档案以远超外界所知的程度消耗着特朗普政府的最高决策层，时常令其陷入瘫痪。

Here are six takeaways from the article in The Times Magazine.

以下是这篇刊载于《纽约时报杂志》的文章的六大要点。

The government’s national-security bunker became an Epstein war room.

政府的国家安全堡垒变成了爱泼斯坦危机作战室。

The secure Situation Room complex, where President Obama and his team monitored the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, became the setting for a string of meetings in which the Trump administration’s most senior officials gathered — without the president — to manage the fallout from public fury over their failure to release the Epstein files. To their surprise, much of that backlash was coming from what they had considered the reliably loyal MAGA base.

当年奥巴马总统及其团队曾在安防森严的战情室内监督击毙奥萨马·本·拉登的突袭行动，如今这里却成了特朗普政府最高级官员（总统本人除外）一连串会议的举办地，旨在管控因未能公布爱泼斯坦档案而引发的公众愤怒。令他们惊讶的是，许多反对声竟来自他们原本认为绝对忠诚的MAGA基本盘。

As the calls for disclosure grew louder, Trump’s inner circle spent more and more time in the Situation Room, which became inseparable from the crisis — a guarded space used not to weigh a foreign threat but to steer the president around a political problem concerning a notorious dead pedophile.

随着要求公开文件的呼声日益高涨，特朗普的核心圈子在战情室里待的时间越来越长，这里已与这场危机密不可分——这个高度戒备的空间不再用于权衡外来威胁，而是用来出谋划策，以便让总统躲开一桩由恶名昭彰的已故恋童者引发的政治麻烦。

The officials knew that prominent people, including Trump, were named in the records of F.B.I. agents’ interview notes with witnesses, some of whom were Epstein’s victims. While many of the claims made in the notes were not corroborated evidence, releasing them was, for most of the president’s advisers, a nonstarter.

官员们心知肚明，FBI探员询问证人的笔录记录中提到了包括特朗普在内的多位知名人士，其中一些证人正是爱泼斯坦的受害者。尽管笔录中的许多说法并未得到确凿证据的支持，但对于总统的大多数顾问而言，公布这些内容是绝对不可接受的。

The president wanted the whole thing buried.

总统想把整件事压住。

Trump made clear to his aides that he had no interest in releasing anything related to Epstein. He snapped at anyone who raised the issue, and his staff mostly learned to avoid the subject in front of him. They were left to worry and plan among themselves. The president’s refusal to acknowledge that a crisis existed, let alone that it was growing, complicated every path his team wanted to take.

特朗普向助手明确表示，他对公布任何与爱泼斯坦有关的材料毫无兴趣。谁要是提起这事，他就会厉声呵斥；幕僚们大多学会了在他面前避而不谈这个话题。他们只能私下担忧和谋划。总统拒不承认危机存在，更不用说危机正在加剧，这导致他的团队想采取任何应对措施都十分困难。

As The Wall Street Journal prepared a damaging article about his relationship with Epstein, the president tried to kill it. He called News Corp.’s chief executive; its owner, Rupert Murdoch; and the paper’s editor in chief, Emma Tucker. The president, practically shouting as he threatened to sue, told Tucker, who is British, that she must “hate America.” When his efforts to stop the article failed and his advisers settled on a limited gesture of transparency, the president went along grudgingly.

在《华尔街日报》准备刊登一篇关于他与爱泼斯坦关系的破坏性报道时，总统试图压制报道。他致电新闻集团首席执行官、报社所有人鲁珀特·默多克以及主编艾玛·塔克。总统几乎是吼着威胁要起诉，并对那位英国籍主编说，她肯定是“憎恨美国”。阻止报道的努力失败后，顾问们决定采取一种有限的公开透明姿态，总统才勉强同意。

Vice President JD Vance wanted to release all the files — even the unsubstantiated material about Trump.

副总统JD·万斯主张公布所有文件——哪怕是那些未经证实的涉特朗普材料。

Within the White House itself, no one was more vocal about releasing the Epstein material than the vice president. “This is a huge problem,” Vance told colleagues in the Situation Room. Others thought he appeared panicked about how the issue was splintering the MAGA coalition. Wiles would later describe the vice president to associates as an Epstein conspiracy theorist.

在白宫内部，没有人比副总统更直言不讳地要求公布爱泼斯坦的材料。“这是个巨大的麻烦，”万斯在战情室里对同僚说。其他人则认为他看起来是慌了，担心这个问题会导致MAGA联盟分裂。怀尔斯后来向同事形容副总统是个爱泼斯坦阴谋论者。

Vance pressed repeatedly for the administration to release everything — even unsubstantiated material about Trump — arguing that Congress would force the issue eventually and that getting ahead of it would earn the White House credit for transparency.

万斯反复敦促政府公布一切——哪怕是关于特朗普的未经证实的材料——他认为国会最终会逼他们就范，先行一步能为白宫赢得公开透明的声誉。

He floated the idea of enlisting Tucker Carlson to interview Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s longtime girlfriend and co-conspirator, in prison, and fretted to colleagues about how the crisis was alienating the young, low-propensity voters who had backed the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024. But the vice president’s suggestions were far from popular with the core Trump team, and most of them went unheeded.

他甚至提议借助塔克·卡尔森去监狱采访爱泼斯坦的长期女友、共谋者吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦，并向同事抱怨这场危机正在疏远一些在2024年支持了特朗普-万斯组合的年轻选民，这些选民平常缺乏投票意愿。但副总统的建议在特朗普核心团队中并不受欢迎，大多数被置之不理。

Expletive-laden blowups fractured the top of the Justice Department.

充斥脏话的爆发导致司法部高层决裂。

The lingering distrust between Pam Bondi, then the attorney general, and the F.B.I.’s top two officials — Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, then his deputy — exploded over the Epstein controversy.

时任司法部长帕姆·邦迪与FBI的两位最高官员——卡什·帕特尔和他的副手丹·邦吉诺——之间积攒已久的不信任在爱泼斯坦争议中彻底爆发。

The day the Justice Department released a memo intended to put the Epstein matter to rest, Bongino marched into a daily meeting and erupted at Bondi. He and Patel told White House officials that Bondi should resign; at a later meeting, the two said they suspected that she had leaked damaging stories about them. When Wiles accused Bongino of a leak of his own, he stormed out of the Situation Room complex. Bongino privately warned associates that the Epstein crisis would become “President Trump’s Iran-contra.”

司法部发布备忘录试图了结爱泼斯坦事件当天，邦吉诺冲进每日例会，对邦迪大发雷霆。他和帕特尔告诉白宫官员，邦迪应该辞职；在后来的会议上，这两人说他们怀疑邦迪泄露了对他们不利的负面消息。当怀尔斯指责邦吉诺自己泄密时，他愤然冲出了战情室。邦吉诺私下警告同僚，爱泼斯坦危机会变成“特朗普总统的‘伊朗门’”。

Advisers found themselves having a surreal debate over an unverified allegation about Mr. Trump.

顾问们发现自己正在白宫就一项关于特朗普的未经证实的指控进行不可思议的辩论。

At an August meeting in the Situation Room, one of the president’s senior aides raised an uncorroborated and secondhand claim that had been made nearly a decade earlier, about Trump aggressively flicking and sucking a young woman’s nipples until they “looked incredibly painful.”

在8月的一次战情室会议上，总统的一位高级助手提出了一项近十年前提出的未经证实的间接指控，称特朗普曾粗暴地弹拨并吮吸一位年轻女性的乳头，以至于“看上去非常疼”。

The claim about Trump had surfaced in 2024 in unsealed court filings from a civil suit unrelated to him, and when the matter was raised by another official, Vance argued for including this and many other accusations on the Justice Department’s website, saying that it would show maximum transparency and that Trump wouldn’t mind, given that he had been accused of worse. Wiles shut that down, saying the president would not, in fact, be fine with releasing it. One official later said it was “surreal” to be debating the nipple accusation in the White House Situation Room.

这一关于特朗普的说法于2024年在一份与他无关的民事诉讼解封法庭文件中浮出水面。当另一位官员提出此事时，万斯主张在司法部网站上公布这一指控及许多其他指控，称这将展示最大的透明度，而且鉴于特朗普曾被指控更恶劣的事，他不会介意。怀尔斯否决了这一提议，称总统实际上绝不会同意公布这些内容。一位官员后来说，在白宫战情室里辩论关于乳头的指控，感觉“太不可思议了”。

More than a year later, the files were still damaging the president.

一年多过去了，这些文件仍在拖累总统。

In late March 2026 — a full year into the White House efforts to manage the fiasco — a confidential memo from Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, summarized responses from focus groups conducted with voters earlier that month, in which the Epstein files ranked as the sixth most important political issue, ahead of crime, the military and being pro-working class. The memo flagged the Epstein issue as “a real negative with some of these voters.”

2026年3月下旬——距离白宫努力应对这场闹剧已整整一年，特朗普的民调专家托尼·法布里齐奥的一份机密备忘录总结了当月早些时候对选民进行的焦点小组访谈反馈，其中爱泼斯坦文件被列为第六大重要政治议题，排在犯罪、军事和有利劳工阶层的政策之前。备忘录将爱泼斯坦问题标记为“在这部分选民中真实存在的负面因素”。

Northern Ireland was on edge after Belfast erupted in violence following a brutal stabbing attack in the city this week.

在一起残忍的持刀袭击事件导致贝尔法斯特爆发暴力骚乱后，北爱尔兰陷入紧张局势。

The case has ignited simmering anti-immigrant sentiment. Far-right figures have called for crowds to take to the streets and said that the United Kingdom should oust millions of foreign-born people.

此案点燃了长期酝酿的反移民情绪。极右翼人士呼吁民众走上街头，并声称英国应该驱逐数百万外国出生的人。

Political leaders are calling for restraint. The suspected attacker, a 30-year-old Sudanese refugee, appeared in court on Wednesday facing charges of attempted murder.

政治领导人正在呼吁保持克制。袭击嫌疑人是一名30岁的苏丹难民，他于周三出庭，面临谋杀未遂指控。

Here’s what’s happening in Belfast.

以下是贝尔法斯特当前的情况。

What happened in the attack?

袭击事件经过如何？

The attacker stabbed another man around 10:30 p.m. on Monday at an apartment complex in northern Belfast, the police said. The police said officers arrived within minutes.

警方表示，周一晚10:30左右，袭击者在贝尔法斯特北部的一个公寓楼群内刺伤另一名男子。警方称，警员几分钟内就抵达现场。

Graphic footage of the attack spread quickly on social media and prompted outrage from some commenters.

袭击的视频画面迅速在社交媒体上传播，引发部分网友的愤怒。

The clip shows a man mounted on the chest of another man, whose face and neck are covered in blood. The attacker moves his hands near the neck of the victim. A bystander can then be seen battering the attacker with a hurley, a long wooden stick used in the Irish sport of hurling.

视频显示，一名男子骑在另一名男子胸口上，后者脸部和颈部满是鲜血。袭击者将手移近受害者颈部。随后可见一名旁观者用球杆（爱尔兰曲棍球运动中使用的长木棍）殴打袭击者。

What happened in the riots?

骚乱情况如何？

There were sporadic bursts of violence around Belfast and elsewhere in Northern Ireland on Tuesday night. Rioters torched cars, and garbage cans engulfed in flames were used to create roadblocks. Protesters set a city bus on fire in eastern Belfast.

周二晚间，贝尔法斯特及北爱尔兰其他地区发生零星暴力事件。骚乱者焚烧汽车，并用燃烧的垃圾桶设置路障。抗议者在贝尔法斯特东部点燃了一辆公交车。

周二，贝尔法斯特。

Emergency responders escorted immigrant families from their homes, some of which had been set on fire.

急救人员护送移民家庭离开住所，其中一些房屋已被纵火焚烧。

The authorities had prepared for violence with an increased police presence. Some evening transit services were canceled in advance. Some businesses and government offices closed early.

当局提前增加警力以应对暴力事件，部分晚间公共交通服务被提前取消，一些企业和政府办公室提早关闭。

What is known about the suspect?

关于嫌疑人的已知信息是？

The suspect, whom the authorities identified as Hadi Alodid, was arrested and charged with attempted murder. He is a refugee from Sudan who is legally residing in the United Kingdom. The Home Office, the British department overseeing immigration and policing, said he had permission to live in the country until 2028. He entered the United Kingdom in 2023 and was granted refugee status that year.

嫌疑人被当局确认为哈迪·阿洛迪德，他已被逮捕并被控谋杀未遂。他是一名来自苏丹的难民，目前合法居住在英国。负责移民和治安的英国内政部表示，他获准在英国居留至2028年。他于2023年进入英国，当年获得难民身份。

A police official said on Tuesday that officers were working to determine a motive. They said that they were not looking for other suspects and that there was no indication to suggest the attack was terrorism.

一名警官周二表示，警员正在努力确定作案动机。他们称目前没有寻找其他嫌疑人，也没有迹象表明这是一起恐怖袭击。

What is known about the victim?

关于受害人的已知信息？

He is a man in his 40s, identified by the authorities as Steven Ogilvy. The police said he was in the hospital with serious injuries to his face, neck and back. He lost an eye as a result of the attack, according to the prosecutors who charged Mr. Alodid on Wednesday.

受害人是一名40多岁的男子，当局确认其名为史蒂文·奥吉尔维。警方表示，他因面部、颈部和背部严重受伤正在医院接受治疗。据检察官周三指控阿洛迪德时透露，受害人因袭击失去了一只眼睛。

周二，贝尔法斯特警察在持刀伤人案现场附近。

How has the far right responded?

极右翼如何回应？

Far-right activists posted video of the stabbing attack, filmed by bystanders, and spread misinformation and speculation about the attacker online. They called for mass deportations and published information about where to gather to protest.

极右翼活动人士发布旁观者拍摄的持刀袭击视频，并在网上散布关于袭击者的不实信息和猜测。他们呼吁大规模驱逐移民，并公布了有关抗议集会地点的信息。

Tommy Robinson, a far-right English agitator who has a number of criminal convictions, urged people to take to the streets after what he called on social media an “invader attack on our people.”

拥有多项刑事定罪记录的英国极右翼煽动者汤米·罗宾逊在社交媒体上称这是一起“入侵者对我们人民的袭击”，并敦促民众走上街头。

Elon Musk, the tech mogul, shared lists of locations around the United Kingdom for people to gather and shared posts by far-right figures in the country.

科技大亨埃隆·马斯克转发了英国各地民众聚集的地点清单，并分享了该国极右翼人士的帖子。

What’s the backdrop for the violence?

此次暴力的背景是什么？

In recent years, other high-profile acts of violence have inflamed anti-immigrant sentiment in the United Kingdom.

近年来，英国其他几起引起广泛关注的暴力事件加剧了反移民情绪。

Some officials and experts are worried about a glorification of extreme violence that has recently escalated online. Political leaders have tried to tamp down on rising xenophobic anger.

一些官员和专家对最近在网上升级的极端暴力美化现象感到担忧。政治领导人试图压制不断上升的仇外愤怒。

There are a few recent cases to note.

有几起近期案例值得注意。

• Henry Nowak, an 18-year-old student, was stabbed in December in the southern English city of Southampton. This week, footage was released that showed him being handcuffed by the police as he lay dying, which fueled outrage and an increasingly politicized conversation online. The day after the footage was released, a night of protest devolved into violence in Southampton. The right-wing lawmaker Nigel Farage claimed that the police’s initial response — believing the account given by the attacker, a British-born Sikh man, instead of the victim’s — was evidence of “anti-white prejudice.”

• 18岁学生亨利·诺瓦克于12月在英格兰南部城市南安普顿被刺死。本周公布的视频显示奄奄一息的他被警察戴上手铐，引发了愤怒和日益政治化的网络讨论。视频公布次日，南安普顿的抗议活动演变为暴力事件。右翼议员奈杰尔·法拉奇声称，警方最初更相信袭击者——一名英国出生的锡克教徒——的说法而非受害者，这正是“反白人偏见”的证据。

• An earlier wave of anti-immigrant anger engulfed Northern Ireland in July 2025, after an alleged sexual assault in the town of Ballymena. Two 14-year-old boys were charged with attempted oral rape of a girl; they both denied the charges, the BBC reported, and spoke through a Romanian interpreter. Far-right agitators whipped up outrage that led to days of unrest. Houses and shops were set on fire.

• 2025年7月，北爱尔兰城镇巴利米纳发生一起涉嫌性侵事件后，反移民愤怒浪潮席卷北爱尔兰。两名14岁男孩被控对一名女孩实施口交强奸未遂；据BBC报道，两人均否认指控，并通过罗马尼亚语翻译发言。极右翼煽动者煽动愤怒，导致多日骚乱。房屋和商店遭到纵火。

2024年，英格兰南港，三名儿童被一名少年杀害的案发地附近留下的鲜花。

• In the summer of 2024, a teenager killed three children in a dance class in Southport, England, and wounded 10 other people. After disinformation about the attacker’s identity swirled, a series of anti-immigrant riots broke out in more than a dozen towns and cities in England and Northern Ireland. False claims that the attacker was an undocumented immigrant or a newly arrived asylum seeker were amplified by far-right agitators. The attacker, a deeply disturbed person who was 17 at the time of the rampage, is a British citizen who was born in Wales to parents from Rwanda.

• 2024年夏天，一名青少年在英格兰南港的一个舞蹈班上杀死三名儿童，并造成10人受伤。在关于袭击者身份的虚假信息传播后，英格兰和北爱尔兰十多个城镇爆发了反移民骚乱。极右翼煽动者放大了袭击者是无证移民或新抵达寻求庇护者的虚假说法。精神严重失常的袭击者当时17岁，是威尔士出生的英国公民，父母来自卢旺达。

The United States launched a new wave of airstrikes on Iran early Thursday morning local time, hours after President Trump vowed to keep up military pressure on Tehran because Iranian leaders were taking “too long to negotiate.”

当地时间周四凌晨，美国对伊朗发动了新一轮空袭。就在数小时前，特朗普总统刚刚扬言将继续对德黑兰施加军事压力，因为伊朗领导层“谈判拖得太久”。

U.S. Central Command said the attack began at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, which was 12:45 a.m. Thursday in Iran. Explosions were heard in Qeshm and Kish Islands near the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the southern cities of Bandar Abbas, Minab and Sirik, according to Iranian news outlets.

美国中央司令部表示，此次袭击于美国东部时间周三下午5点15分开始，也就是伊朗时间周四凌晨0点45分。据伊朗媒体报道，霍尔木兹海峡附近的格什姆岛和基什岛，以及南部城市阿巴斯港、米纳卜和锡里克都传出了爆炸声。

Iran warned it would respond “forcefully and definitively” and said that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to any type of vessel, including oil tankers and commercial ships. U.S. Central Command denied the strait was closed.

伊朗警告称将“有力地、坚决地”做出回击，并宣布霍尔木兹海峡对包括油轮和商业船只在内的所有船只关闭。美国中央司令部则否认该海峡已遭封锁。

On Tuesday, the U.S. military said that its jets had hit multiple Iranian targets in response to the downing of an American Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz the previous day. But Mr. Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made clear that the latest strikes were meant not as retaliation for a particular military action, but to pressure Tehran to agree to peace on terms agreeable to Mr. Trump.

周二，美国军方表示，其战机对多个伊朗目标实施了打击，以回应前一天一架美国“阿帕奇”直升机在霍尔木兹海峡附近被击落的事件。然而，特朗普和国防部长海格塞斯明确表示，此次最新打击并非针对某一具体军事行动的报复，而是旨在向德黑兰施压，迫使其按特朗普满意的条件接受和平协议。

“If we need to negotiate with bombs, we’ll negotiate with bombs,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla. “And we’re very good at it. Nobody better in the world.”

海格塞斯在佛罗里达州坦帕的麦克迪尔空军基地对记者表示：“如果我们需要用炸弹来谈判，我们就会用炸弹来谈判。而且我们非常擅长这个。全世界没有比我们更厉害的。”

The comments were the latest threats the United States had directed at Iran, which have, somewhat confusingly, been layered in with Mr. Trump’s repeated reassurances that a peace deal with Iran was imminent.

此乃美国对伊朗发出的最新威胁，但令人困惑的是，这些威胁同时又与特朗普一再保证美伊和平协议即将达成的说法交织在一起。

Since a cease-fire was declared two months ago, fire has slowed but not ceased. U.S. and Iranian forces have traded occasional attacks and issued almost daily contradictory claims about blame, the fighting and peace talks.

自两个月前宣布停火以来，战火虽然有所减弱，但从未真正停止。美伊双方不时互相发动袭击，并且几乎每天都会就责任归属、战况进展以及和平谈判发表相互矛盾的说法。

The claimed cease-fire “is more like a lesser-fire, as we have seen with the escalating attacks and rhetoric over the last 48 hours,” António Guterres, the United Nations’ secretary general, said on Wednesday.

联合国秘书长古特雷斯周三表示，所谓的停火“更像是‘减弱火力’，正如过去48小时内不断升级的袭击和言论所表明的那样”。

The U.S. military said on Tuesday that its jets had hit multiple targets in southern Iran after the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran has not admitted or denied downing the helicopter, but its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said the American strikes had been conducted “under false premises.”

美国军方周二表示，在周一一架美国直升机于霍尔木兹海峡附近被击落后，美军战机已打击了伊朗南部多处目标。伊朗既未承认也未否认击落该直升机，但伊斯兰革命卫队表示，美国的打击是基于“虚假借口”进行的。

Among the sites damaged were critical waterworks in Sirik County, leaving thousands of people without drinking water for at least 12 hours, according to high-ranking officials quoted in Iranian news media.

据伊朗新闻媒体援引高层官员的话报道，锡里克县的关键供水设施遭到损毁，数千民众至少12小时无法获得饮用水。

In retaliation, Iran said it had launched attack drones against U.S. naval targets in Bahrain and fired missiles at American military facilities in Jordan. Officials in the countries said that the strikes had been intercepted.

作为报复，伊朗表示已向巴林境内的美国海军目标发射了攻击无人机，并向约旦的美军设施发射了导弹。这些国家官员表示，上述攻击均已被拦截。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们正在关注的其他内容：

• Economic effect: U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2 percent in May compared with a year earlier, the highest pace of inflation since April 2023, amid the stalemate over Iran. Oil prices also jumped on Wednesday. Read more ›

• 经济影响：受美伊僵局拖累，美国消费者价格5月同比上涨4.2%，为2023年4月以来最高通胀增速。油价周三也出现上涨。阅读详情›

• Water facilities hit: IRIB, the Iranian state broadcaster, reported that a U.S. attacks had hit drinking water facilities in the Bamani district of Sirik County, in the southern Hormozgan Province, and later reported that services had been restored. U.S. Central Command did not respond to a request for comment on the report of the strike. Read more ›

• 供水设施遇袭：伊朗国家广播电视台报道称，美国袭击击中了霍尔木兹甘省锡里克县巴马尼区的饮用水设施，但随后报道称供水已恢复。美国中央司令部未就相关报道置评请求作出回应。阅读详情›

• Not-so-secret mission: Mr. Trump described a clandestine mission that involved spiriting millions of barrels of oil right through the Strait of Hormuz under Iran’s nose. But a U.S. military official said that the comments, made from the Oval Office and broadcast on live television, referred to a previously reported U.S. effort to steer commercial vessels through the strait. Read more ›

• 并不那么秘密的任务：特朗普描述了一项秘密行动，称美方将数百万桶石油在伊朗眼皮底下运出霍尔木兹海峡。但一名美国军方官员表示，特朗普在椭圆形办公室接受电视直播采访时发表的这番言论，实际上指的是此前已被报道过的美国协助商业船只通过该海峡的行动。阅读详情›

Fifteen years ago, the world’s billionaires collectively had $4.5 trillion.

15年前，全球亿万富翁的财富总和为4.5万亿美元。

By 2024, their wealth had more than tripled to $14.2 trillion.

到2024年，他们的财富增长了两倍多，达到14.2万亿美元。

Now, their combined wealth totals $20.1 trillion — an amount that is equivalent to nearly a fifth of the entire world’s total yearly output.

如今，他们的财富总和达到20.1万亿美元——几乎相当于全球经济全年总产出的近五分之一。

The stunning figures — calculated by the French economist Gabriel Zucman, director of the International Tax Observatory, a research organization funded by the European Union — reveal more than a surprisingly rapid increase in the concentration of wealth at the tippy top.

这些惊人数据——由欧盟资助的研究机构国际税收观察站主任、法国经济学家加布里埃尔·祖克曼计算得出——不仅揭示了财富在金字塔顶端惊人的快速集中，更反映了一系列重要的全球趋势。

They also reflect a series of important global trends: the growing dominance of a few technology companies leading artificial intelligence development; the shrinking slice of the economic pie that goes to workers; and a deepening inequality that will be handed down to the next generation.

它们还表明：主导人工智能发展的少数科技公司的日益垄断地位；分配给工人的经济蛋糕份额不断缩小；以及将传递给下一代的日益严重的贫富差距。

These developments are particularly prominent in the United States, where roughly one-third of the world’s nearly 3,000 billionaires reside — and perhaps the first trillionaire, Elon Musk, depending on how the initial public offering of his rocket and satellite company, SpaceX, goes on Friday.

这些发展在美国尤为突出——全球近3000名亿万富翁中约有三分之一居住在美国——而且可能出现全球首位万亿美元富豪，即埃隆·马斯克，这取决于他的火箭和卫星公司SpaceX周五的首次公开募股表现如何。

Their rising wealth, a 40 percent increase in just two years, has coincided with significant changes to U.S. tax laws over the last decade that largely benefited the country’s richest families and stockholders and led to an increase in their political influence.

他们的财富在短短两年内增长40%，与此同时，过去十年美国税法进行了一系列重大修改，这些修改主要有利于美国最富有的家族和股东，并导致他们的政治影响力增强。

Why have billionaires seen such a rapid rise in their wealth?

为什么亿万富翁的财富会出现如此迅猛的增长？

One reason for the sudden surge of growth at the peak of the wealth ladder is the boom in artificial intelligence, which has funneled trillions of dollars of capital investment into a small clutch of tech companies. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, for example, are each worth more than $1 trillion. Their founders and early investors have reaped most of the financial gain.

财富阶梯顶端突然加速增长的一个重要原因是人工智能热潮，它将数万亿美元的资本投资注入到少数科技公司手中。例如，英伟达、苹果、微软、Alphabet、Meta和台积电，每家公司的市值都超过1万亿美元。他们的创始人和早期投资者获得了大部分财务收益。

We can see it happening with SpaceX’s public offering — set to be the biggest in history. The anticipated Day 1 valuation of the company, whose shares are expected to begin trading on Friday, aims for $1.77 trillion. With 42 percent of the stock, Mr. Musk is poised to become an instant trillionaire.

我们正通过SpaceX的公开募股看到这一过程——这将是历史上规模最大的IPO。该公司股份预计周五开始交易，首日目标估值达1.77万亿美元。马斯克持有42%的股份，有望瞬间成为万亿美元富豪。

It’s hard to wrap your head around such vast sums. But consider that only 21 countries in the world have economies that are able to produce enough annual output to reach the trillion-dollar mark.

如此庞大的数字很难让人理解。但请想想，全世界只有21个国家的经济体量能达到万亿美元的年度产出规模。

The stock market is where much of the billionaire alchemy happens. Soaring stock profits have been disproportionately captured by the richest sliver. Yes, you may have a stake in stock prices if you have a 401(k) retirement plan. And those nest eggs will help pay for housing, food, car, gas, electric and other bills when you stop working.

股市是亿万富翁“炼金术”发生的主要场所。飙升的股票收益被最富有的那一小部分人不成比例地攫取。当然，如果你有401(k)退休计划，你可能也从股价中受益。这些退休金将在你退休后用于支付住房、食品、汽车、汽油、电力等账单。

But it’s the top 1 percent of Americans who own half of all stock, according to data from the Federal Reserve. The top 0.1 percent of Americans — a group of about 135,000 households — own stocks that total $13.7 trillion. That is nearly double the $7.1 trillion owned by the bottom 90 percent of Americans, a group of about 115 million households.

但根据美联储数据，美国前1%的人口拥有全部股票的一半。前0.1%的人口（约13.5万户家庭）拥有的股票总价值达13.7万亿美元，几乎是下层90%美国人（约1.15亿户家庭）拥有的7.1万亿美元的两倍。

The tech firms that are playing an outsize part in generating those returns have created jobs — but so far the numbers of employees are relatively small. Billionaires’ returns are based on investments in capital much more than in those companies’ employees.

科技公司在这一进程中起到了格外大的作用，它们创造了就业岗位——但迄今为止雇员数量相对较少。亿万富翁的回报更多基于使用资本进行的投资，而非公司雇员。

马克·扎克伯格、杰夫·贝佐斯、桑达尔·皮查伊和埃隆·马斯克去年齐聚华盛顿。人工智能热潮已将数万亿美元的资本投入集中输送给了少数几家科技公司。

Inequality is growing.

不平等正在加剧。

The rise of billionaires is accelerating at the same time that workers are getting a smaller share of the wealth that national economies are creating.

亿万富翁的崛起加速的同时，工人从国家经济创造的财富中获得的份额却越来越小。

Financial assets have traditionally brought home bigger returns than a weekly paycheck. But since the early 2000s, the gap between the two has been growing. Economists point to several reasons: the declining power of labor unions’ bargaining power; the spread of automation, artificial intelligence and other technologies that can replace workers; the movement of manufacturing and other jobs to countries like China; and policies that tax wages much more heavily than income from investments.

金融资产带来的回报向来要高于工薪收入。但自2000年代初以来，两者之间的差距不断扩大。经济学家指出了几个原因：工会谈判力量下降；自动化、人工智能及其他可替代工人的技术普及；制造业和其他工作岗位转移到中国等国家；以及对工资征税远重于对投资收入征税的政策。

Another culprit, though, is the rise of what David Autor, an economist at M.I.T. and the faculty co-director of the Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work, and other economists have labeled superstar firms — behemoths that dominate sectors.

另一个罪魁祸首是麻省理工学院经济学家、斯通不平等与塑造未来工作中心联合主任戴维·奥特尔等人所称的“超级明星企业”——那些主导行业的巨无霸企业。

These businesses have shifted the balance of power in the economy, allowing owners rather than workers to gobble up more financial rewards.

这些企业改变了经济中的权力平衡，让所有者而非工人攫取了更多财务回报。

Superstar firms can also function like monopolies to set prices and keep down workers’ wages and benefits or impose uncomfortable working conditions.

超级明星企业还能像垄断者一样制定价格、压低工人工资和福利，或强加恶劣的工作条件。

Mr. Autor emphasized that many billionaire entrepreneurs have added enormous value to the economy. But he added that the way they have at times used their money to distort the political process can be “fundamentally corrosive.”

奥特尔强调，许多亿万富翁企业家为经济创造了巨大价值。但他也指出，他们有时利用金钱扭曲政治进程的方式可能“从根本上具有腐蚀性”。

“The problem is not necessarily with how the billions are earned,” he said, “but how that money distorts politics, and how our political process is increasingly a pay-to-play operation.”

“问题不一定在于这些巨额财富是如何赚取的，”他说，“而在于这些钱如何扭曲政治，以及我们的政治进程如何日益变成一种‘付费才能玩’的运作。”

Measuring inequality is difficult. There is a lot of debate about the precise size of the gap between those with the most and those with the least, as well as the degree to which labor’s share of the pie has declined. But there is general agreement among economists who study the issue that the wealthiest are pulling away from everyone else at a faster pace than before.

衡量不平等很困难。对于最富有者和最贫穷者之间的差距究竟有多大，以及劳动份额下降的程度，存在大量争议。但研究这一问题的经济学家普遍认为，最富有者正以前所未有的速度拉大与其他人之间的差距。

黄仁勋身家飙升至逾1500亿美元，这位英伟达首席执行官正坐拥极致财富与全球人工智能霸主地位的交汇点。

Tax policy plays a role in building billionaires’ wealth.

税收政策在亿万富翁财富积累中发挥了作用。

In the United States, changes in the tax laws over the past 10 years have steered more benefits to the wealthiest sliver of households, reducing the amount of taxes they have to pay.

在美国，过去10年的税法修改将更多好处导向最富有的那一小部分家庭，降低了他们需缴纳的税款。

A drastic reduction in the corporate tax rate has supercharged the wealth of the ultrarich, enabling them to double down on their gains as corporations use the increased profits to buy back their stock.

公司税率的大幅降低极大地增强了超级富豪的财富，使他们能够通过公司用增加的利润回购股票来进一步放大收益。

The reduction in taxes owed by corporations and the wealthy increases the tax burden on workers, who pay both income and payroll taxes — two types of tax that barely scratch billionaire wealth. It also reduces the public revenue available to pay for health, education, defense, infrastructure and other public benefits at a time when governments are in deep debt.

企业和富人应缴税款的减少加重了工人的税收负担——工人需缴纳所得税和薪酬税，而这两种税几乎触及不到亿万富翁的财富。这还在政府已经债台高筑之时，减少了用于支付医疗、教育、国防、基础设施和其他公共福利的公共收入。

The mind-busting fortunes have stirred some political support for wealth taxes. The idea was embraced at the Global Inequality Conference in Paris last week. Proposals for wealth taxes have been debated most seriously in France, but also in Germany, Britain, Brazil and the United States.

这些令人瞠目结舌的巨额财富引发了一些对财富税的政治支持。上周在巴黎举行的全球不平等会议上，这一理念得到拥护。法国对财富税的提议辩论最为深入，德国、英国、巴西和美国也有相关讨论。

In California, where more than 200 billionaires live, union leaders helped put the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act on the November ballot. It would impose a one-time tax of 5 percent on a billionaire’s net worth.

在拥有超过200名亿万富翁的加州，工会领袖推动将2026年亿万富翁税法案纳入11月的选票中。该法案将对亿万富翁的净资产征收一次性5%的税收。

The measure, constructed with input from Mr. Zucman and Emmanuel Saez, another economist who has been at the forefront of research on global wealth and inequality, was based on calculations that found California billionaires’ wealth exceeds $2 trillion today — an amount that equals half of what all of the California economy produces in a year. From 2023 to 2025, the wealth of the state’s billionaires grew 144 percent.

该措施在祖克曼和另一位全球财富与不平等研究前沿经济学家伊曼纽尔·赛斯参与下制定，基于计算显示：加州亿万富翁目前的财富超过2万亿美元——相当于加州全年经济产出的一半。从2023年到2025年，该州亿万富翁的财富增长了144%。

They point out that the surging financial and political power of a few hundred individuals contributes to a growing inequality that is likely to persist for generations because most of that wealth escapes taxation, creating a self-perpetuating aristocracy.

他们指出，少数几百名个人的金融和政治权力的激增加剧了可能持续几代人的不平等，因为这些财富大多避开了税收，造就了一个自我延续的贵族阶层。

As Dario Amodei, the billionaire chief executive of Anthropic, the maker of the chatbot Claude, wrote this year: “We are already at historically unprecedented levels of wealth concentration,” adding that “the thing to worry about is a level of wealth concentration that will break society.”

正如人工智能聊天机器人Claude的开发商Anthropic的亿万富翁首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊今年所说：“我们已经处于历史上前所未有的财富集中水平，”他补充说，“需要担心的是那种会摧毁社会的财富集中程度。”

After meeting with China’s top diplomat in Malaysia last summer, Secretary of State Marco Rubio uttered a line that made few waves at the time but would later help pave the way for an abrupt change.

去年夏天在马来西亚会见中国最高外交官后，国务卿鲁比奥说了一句话，当时未引起太大动静，但这句话后来为突如其来的政策转变铺平了道路。

The United States and China, Mr. Rubio said, had an “opportunity here to achieve some strategic stability” and find areas of cooperation. He used the phrase again in February while talking about China in the Caribbean, also to little notice.

鲁比奥表示，美中两国“在此有机会实现某种战略稳定”，并找到合作领域。今年2月在加勒比地区谈论中国问题时，他又一次使用了这个说法，同样未引起多少关注。

Chinese officials picked up on Mr. Rubio’s remarks and suggested to their U.S. counterparts even rosier language to describe ties between the two nations, according to two people with knowledge of the previously unreported diplomacy.

据两名知情人士透露，中方官员注意到了鲁比奥的言论，并向美方对口官员提出了用更积极的措辞来描述两国关系的建议。这一外交动向此前未曾被报道过。

The new phrase — “constructive strategic stability” — was rolled out by both governments during President Trump’s meeting in Beijing last month with the leader of China, Xi Jinping.

特朗普总统上月在北京与中国领导人习近平会晤期间，两国政府共同正式推出了一个新表述——“建设性战略稳定关系”。

Although the language sounds stiff and somewhat vague, such diplomatic terms serve as important guideposts. The new catchphrase signals to agencies in both nations, and to other powers, that the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies and most powerful militaries — are looking to work together or limit hostilities, notably on trade and Taiwan.

尽管这一表述听来生硬、略显模糊，但此类外交术语往往具有重要的指向意义。这个新口号向两国政府机构及其他大国传递出一个信号：美中两国——世界最大的两个经济体和最强军事力量——正寻求合作或控制对抗，尤其是在贸易和台湾问题上。

Mr. Trump’s new policy with Beijing has stirred questions and anxieties across Asia, from Taipei to Delhi to Manila, sending officials in the region scrambling to recalibrate their own approaches to the United States and China.

特朗普对华政策的新走向在亚洲各地引发了疑虑与不安，从台北到新德里，再到马尼拉，各国官员纷纷忙于重新校准本国对美国和中国的策略。

The signals from the Americans became sharper over a series of official visits to Asia in recent weeks: Mr. Trump and his top aides to Beijing; Mr. Rubio to India; and Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, to Singapore.

过去几周，随着一系列高层访问——特朗普及其高级幕僚访问北京、鲁比奥访问印度、国防部长海格塞斯访问新加坡，美方发出的信号变得更加明确。

At an annual military forum, Mr. Hegseth said there was “rightful alarm” in Asia about China’s military buildup and activities, but he also declared, “We respect their ambitions.” He did not mention Taiwan, making him the first defense secretary in more than a decade not to do so at the forum.

在一个年度军事论坛上，海格塞思表示，亚洲各国对于中国的军事扩张和军事行动产生了“合理的担忧”，但他同时也宣称：“我们尊重他们的抱负。”他没有提及台湾问题，这使他成为十多年来首位在该论坛上未谈及台湾的美国国防部长。

今年早些时候，国防部长海格塞斯（左）在新加坡举行的一个论坛上与韩国国防部长官安圭伯（右）及日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎交谈。

After his meetings in China, Mr. Trump effusively praised Mr. Xi, calling him a towering leader out of “central casting.” But more important, Mr. Trump said he was holding “in abeyance” arms sales to Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” with China, and that the United States and China were forming a “G2” of equal superpowers. “It’s the two great countries,” he told Fox News.

在结束访华行程后，特朗普对习近平大加赞赏，称他是那种教科书般的强势领导人。但更为重要的是，特朗普表示他正将对台军售“暂时搁置”，以此作为与中国谈判的“筹码”，并称美中两国正在形成一个由平起平坐的超级大国构成的“G2”。“这是两个伟大的国家，”他在接受福克斯新闻采访时说。

Current and former officials in the United States and Asia say the message is clear: Mr. Trump intends to accommodate China, and other countries should fall in line.

美国及亚洲地区的现任和前任官员表示，特朗普传递的信息很明确：他打算与中国协调相处，其他国家也应顺势而为。

The new policy is a sharp departure from Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach during his first term. It comes after China’s retaliation during a trade war last year forced Mr. Trump to retreat.

这一新政策与特朗普第一任期内的对华强硬路线大相径庭。这是在去年贸易战中中国的反制迫使特朗普收手之后出现的转变。

“For now at least, the perspective of the Chinese government is that their relationship with the Trump administration is better than they had ever expected,” said Yun Sun, a China scholar at the Stimson Center, a foreign policy research group.

“至少就目前而言，中国政府的看法是，他们与特朗普政府的关系比此前预想的要好得多，”外交政策研究机构史汀生中心研究中国问题的学者孙韵表示。

“They see Trump as an opportunity to cultivate a positive view of China,” said Ms. Sun, who was in Beijing during the summit. “They think maybe they can use the next two and a half years to show people that China isn’t as bad as everyone thinks it is.” She added that Chinese officials are especially keen to sway opinions in foreign policy and national security circles in Washington.

“他们把特朗普视为一个塑造中国正面形象的机会，”峰会期间人在北京的孙韵说。“他们认为，也许可以利用未来两年半的时间向外界证明，中国并不像很多人想象的那么糟糕。”她还补充说，中国官员尤其希望影响华盛顿外交政策和国家安全圈子的看法。

The White House insists that the new “constructive relationship of strategic stability” is linked to “fairness and reciprocity.” In a sign that some competition will continue, the Pentagon on Monday added several large Chinese technology companies and an electric carmaker to a list of enterprises linked to China’s military, an effort to limit their global trade.

白宫坚称，新的“建设性战略稳定关系”与“公平和互惠”挂钩。作为某种竞争仍将持续的信号，五角大楼周一将数家中国大型科技公司和一家电动汽车制造商列入与中国军方有关联的企业名单，试图限制它们的全球贸易活动。

But China has not adopted the Trump administration’s framing of the new phrase. The Chinese government has stressed that the language prioritizes cooperation. “It should be constant stability where differences are manageable, and the relationship should not be like a roller coaster,” the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.

但中国并未完全接受特朗普政府对这一新表述的解读。中国政府指出，这一措辞首先强调的是合作。中国驻华盛顿大使馆在声明中表示：“应该是分歧可控的常态稳定，不能像过山车一样起伏不定。”

上个月，习近平在北京欢迎特朗普总统。特朗普表示，访华期间两人“非常深入地”讨论了台湾问题和对台军售问题。

Mr. Xi has been even bolder. In a speech during the summit, he told Mr. Trump that “great changes unseen in a century are accelerating” — a phrase he has used before to describe the decline of American power. Mr. Xi also urged Mr. Trump to try to avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” the theory that a rising power and an established power are likely to go to war.

习近平的表态则更加大胆。在峰会期间的一次讲话中，他告诉特朗普，“世界百年未有之大变局正在加速演进”——这是他过去用来描述美国实力衰落的一种说法。习近平还敦促特朗普避免落入“修昔底德陷阱”，即新兴强国与既有强国容易走向战争的理论。

Mr. Trump has acknowledged Mr. Xi’s assertion of superpower equality. In a social media post, he wrote that Mr. Xi had “very elegantly” mentioned U.S. decline, but argued that was a reference to the Biden era.

特朗普承认了习近平关于超级大国平等地位的说法。他在社交媒体上写道，习近平“非常巧妙地”提到了美国的衰落，但他辩称，那指的是拜登执政时期。

China has been pressing the United States to formally recognize it as a peer power for years. Mr. Xi tried to get President Barack Obama to officially state that the two nations had “a new type of great power relations.” Mr. Obama resisted.

多年来，中国一直在推动美国正式承认其对等大国地位。习近平曾试图说服奥巴马总统正式确认两国之间已经形成了“新型大国关系”，但遭到奥巴马的拒绝。

But Mr. Trump has given China an opening.

特朗普却给了中国一个机会。

“It seems the president now only sees China as an economic competitor and is trying to come to a modus vivendi with China,” said Shivshankar Menon, a former foreign secretary of India and ambassador to China, using a term that refers to a peaceful coexistence. “It doesn’t seem like this U.S. administration is interested in the broader geostrategic issues in Asia.”

“（特朗普）总统现在似乎只将中国视为经济竞争对手，并正试图与中国达成一种可行的共存安排，”印度前外交秘书、前驻华大使希夫山卡·梅农表示。“本届美国政府似乎对亚洲更广泛的地缘战略问题不感兴趣。”

The most obvious — and to many, most concerning — shift by Mr. Trump has come on Taiwan. Early this year, to avoid angering Beijing before the summit, the White House ordered the State Department not to move forward with a large package of weapons for Taiwan that Congress had already approved, The New York Times reported.

特朗普最明显——在许多人看来也是最令人担忧——的转变是在台湾问题上。据《纽约时报》报道，今年早些时候，为避免在峰会前激怒北京，白宫下令国务院暂停推进国会已批准的一项对台大型军售计划。

Mr. Xi repeatedly warned Mr. Trump about such sales after the administration announced an $11 billion package in December.

去年12月，美国政府宣布了这项价值110亿美元的对台军售方案后，习近平曾多次就此向特朗普发出警告。

The Trump administration’s new stance appears to violate a longstanding U.S.-Taiwan diplomatic agreement called the “Six Assurances” and the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. Lawmakers from both parties questioned Mr. Rubio last week about Taiwan, but he insisted the policy had not changed.

特朗普政府的新立场似乎违背了美台之间长期遵循的“六项保证”及1979年的《台湾关系法》。来自两党的议员上周就台湾问题对鲁比奥进行了质询，但他坚称政策并未改变。

“We’re not withholding,” he said of the frozen $14 billion arms package. “It’s just under review.”

谈到被冻结的140亿美元军售案时，他说：“我们并非扣下，只是仍在审议中。”

Perhaps just as worrying for the Taiwanese government and its supporters is Mr. Trump’s language on Taiwan.

对台湾政府及其支持者而言，或许同样令人忧虑的是特朗普在台湾问题上的表述。

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋上个月在北京出席活动。特朗普此前决定，允许英伟达向中国企业销售高性能芯片。

He has long considered China to be much more important than Taiwan, the democratic, self-governing island that the Chinese Communist Party aims to absorb, and around which the Chinese military is conducting aggressive air and sea activities. After his Beijing bromance with Mr. Xi, Mr. Trump appeared to blame Taiwan for helping set the stage for potential war.

长期以来，他一直认为中国远比台湾重要。台湾是一个民主自治的岛屿，是中共力图并吞的目标，中国军方在台湾周边开展了越来越强势的海空军事活动。在与习近平上演北京兄弟情之后，特朗普似乎将潜在战争风险的形成部分归咎于台湾。

“I’m not looking to have somebody go independent, and you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war,” he said. “I’m not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down.”

“我不希望有人走向独立，而且要知道，我们得跑9500英里去打一场战争，”他说。“我不想看到这种情况。我希望他们都冷静下来。我希望中国冷静下来。”

Mr. Trump said that he and Mr. Xi had discussed Taiwan and arms sales to the island “in great detail.”

特朗普表示，他与习近平“非常深入地”讨论了台湾问题和对台军售问题。

“Based on the sum total of what President Trump has said to the media, it seems like he has absorbed a great deal of Xi Jinping’s thinking on Taiwan,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund. “People are anxious.”

“从特朗普总统对媒体所说的整体内容来看，他似乎已经很大程度上接受了习近平在台湾问题上的看法，”德国马歇尔基金会印太项目执行主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)表示。“人们对此感到担忧。”

In another significant act, Mr. Trump recently decided to allow Nvidia, the American technology company, to sell powerful chips to Chinese companies. That move has drawn some criticism from lawmakers and former officials of both parties who had endorsed the Biden administration’s export controls on advanced chips.

另一项意义重大的举措是，特朗普最近期决定允许美国科技公司英伟达向中国企业出售高性能芯片。此举引发了两党部分议员和前官员的批评，他们此前曾支持拜登政府对先进芯片实施出口管制。

China has not immediately approved the imports. But in recent weeks, Chinese executives have sensed a potential easing by Beijing and sought ways to buy the chips, Ms. Sun said. Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, hitched a ride on Air Force One to fly to China with Mr. Trump when the plane stopped to refuel in Alaska.

中国尚未立即批准相关进口。但孙韵表示，最近几周，中国企业高管已经察觉到北京方面可能正在放松态度，并开始寻求购买这些芯片的途径。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在“空军一号”于阿拉斯加停靠加油时登机，与特朗普一同飞往中国。

Officials across Asia are trying to discern where their nations fit into Mr. Trump’s strategic shift. Mr. Rubio’s trip to Delhi after the Beijing summit was aimed at reassuring Indian leaders after a tumultuous year and a half of policies and statements by Mr. Trump that have been widely perceived as against India.

亚洲各国官员都在试图判断，在特朗普战略转向之后，自己的国家将处于什么位置。北京峰会结束后，鲁比奥前往新德里访问，安抚印度领导人——此前一年半间，特朗普的一系列政策和言论被广泛认为对印度不友好。

But little of substance came from the trip, which included tourism and a gala hosted by the U.S. Embassy alongside a meeting with the top diplomats from Australia, India and Japan, the other members of a group known as the Quad.

但这次访问几乎没有取得什么实质成果，鲁比奥的行程包括观光活动、美国驻印使馆举办的招待会，以及与澳大利亚、印度和日本三国外长的会面——这三个国家与美国共同组成了“四方安全对话”机制。

上个月在新德里举行的会晤中，从左至右依次为：澳大利亚外长黄英贤、印度外长苏杰生、日本外务大臣茂木敏充以及美国国务卿鲁比奥。

Some officials and analysts see Mr. Trump’s warming toward Beijing as leading to an inevitable move away from shared goals with India and other Asian countries.

一些官员和分析人士认为，特朗普对北京态度转暖，意味着美国势必会逐渐偏离与印度及其他亚洲国家共同追求的战略目标。

“The strategic convergence on China was the glue that held U.S.-India policy together,” said Milan Vaishnav, the director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Now there’s an absence of that.”

卡内基国际和平基金会南亚项目主任米兰·瓦什纳夫表示：“对华战略共识曾是维系美印政策的粘合剂，现在这种共识已经不存在了。”  

At the forum in Singapore, some analysts said Mr. Hegseth’s speech sidestepped the region’s main concerns and failed to address how the United States planned to recover from the war that it and Israel started with Iran, which has depleted stockpiles of U.S. weapons and compelled the American military to move resources out of Asia.

一些分析人士认为，在新加坡举行的论坛上，海格塞思的讲话回避了该地区最关心的问题，也未能说明美国计划如何从与以色列共同对伊朗发动的战争中恢复过来。这场战争已经消耗了大量美国武器库存，并迫使美军将部分资源从亚洲调往其他地区。

Some American officials and analysts argue that the United States is not backing away from Asia. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command is creating a new logistics and refueling hub on the Pacific island of Palau. Training exercises across the region led by the United States have been growing.

部分美国官员和分析人士认为，美国并未从亚洲收缩。美国印太司令部正在太平洋岛国帕劳新建一处后勤和加油枢纽，美国主导的地区联合军事演习规模也在持续扩大。

Exercise Balikatan, the annual joint military drills between the Philippines and the United States, brought together 17,000 troops from seven countries in April and May. During the exercise, Japanese combat troops were active in the Philippines for the first time since World War II, and the United States tested the Typhon missile system, widely seen as a deterrent against Chinese forces.

菲美年度联合军演“肩并肩”于今年4月至5月举行，共有来自七个国家的1.7万名军人参加。演习期间，日本作战部队自第二次世界大战结束以来首次在菲律宾开展军事活动，美国则测试了“堤丰”导弹系统，该系统被广泛视为针对中国军队的一种威慑力量。

“This was being done as a clear show of force, a demonstration that the United States and its allies could defend against a P.L.A. amphibious assault,” Matt Turpin, a White House national security official in the first Trump administration, wrote afterward, referring to the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China. “I feel confident that the Trump administration is taking the military threat from the P.R.C. seriously.”

“此次演习是一次明确的武力展示，旨在表明美国及其盟友有能力抵御中国人民解放军的两栖登陆，”特朗普第一任期内的白宫国家安全官员马特·特平事后撰文写道。“我有信心，特朗普政府正在认真对待来自中国的军事威胁。”

For weeks, the parameters of a preliminary agreement to end the war between the United States and Iran have been clear to its negotiators. The hang-up? How to devise a deal so each side can claim a win.

几周以来，结束美伊战争的初步协议框架对双方谈判代表来说已经非常明确。症结在于如何设计一项协议，让双方都能宣称自己是赢家。

Washington and Tehran — both neither fully victorious nor completely defeated in the war — badly want a deal. But they also need something they can present as favorable to the hawks and hard-liners back home.

华盛顿和德黑兰在这场战争中都是既没有完全获胜，也没有彻底失败，双方都非常渴望达成协议，但也需要一些能在国内鹰派和强硬派面前交代得过去的东西。

Added to this fundamental dispute are the peculiarities of the two countries’ leaders. One of them is in hiding and slow to sign off on any proposal; the other is so unpredictable, his own envoys struggle to negotiate on his behalf.

除了这一根本分歧之外，两国领导人的特殊性也增添了变数。一位领导人正处于躲藏状态，迟迟不愿批准任何提案；另一位领导人则是难以预测，就连他自己的特使都很难代表他进行谈判。

Unsuccessful efforts at devising this alchemy of wording have mired the two sides in a state of neither war nor peace. They have left the global economy in limbo, too, as both sides continue their blockades of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

在斡旋措辞方面屡屡受挫令双方陷入了不战不和的僵局。由于双方都在继续封锁至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡，全球经济也随之陷入了悬而未决的状态。

The longer this uncertainty persists, mediators warn, the higher the risk the whole peace process will be derailed. The tenuous nature of it all was reinforced on Monday when Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since the April cease-fire, bringing the Middle East back to the precipice of full-blown war before both sides backed down.

调停人警告说，这种不确定性持续得越久，整个和平进程偏离轨道的风险就越高。周一，以色列和伊朗自4月停火以来首次交火，将中东重新推向全面战争的边缘，随后双方才各自退让，这进一步凸显了当前局势的脆弱性。

Any framework for a peace agreement is likely to require Iran to allow normal maritime traffic through the strait and the United States to halt its blockade of Iranian vessels. It is also likely to include a pledge to hold a second phase of negotiations culminating in Iran’s giving up its highly enriched uranium stockpile and Washington’s easing economic sanctions in return. And any deal is widely expected — perhaps most problematically for President Trump — to unlock some of Iran’s frozen assets.

任何和平协议框架都可能要求伊朗允许通过该海峡的正常海上交通，并要求美国停止对伊朗船只的封锁。它还可能包括承诺举行第二阶段谈判，最终使伊朗放弃高浓缩铀库存，华盛顿则以放松经济制裁作为回报。此外，外界普遍预期，任何协议都将解冻部分伊朗被冻结的资产——这对比特朗普总统来说可能也是最棘手的问题。

The dilemma is how to sequence the terms, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.

查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔表示，现在的难题在于如何安排各项条款的顺序。

“The U.S. wants to get everything and not give too much at the beginning,” she said. “And the Iranians want to get things at the beginning and give things along the way.”

“美国希望从一开始就获得一切，同时又不愿付出太多，”她说。“而伊朗人希望一开始就获得利益，在后续过程中再做出让步。”

4月，德黑兰的一块广告牌上，新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（右）与其父阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊并列。

On one side of the equation is Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is still in hiding out of concern about being targeted like his father, the former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed by U.S.-Israeli strikes in their opening salvos of the war. Mediators interviewed for this article, who like other officials requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters openly, said it took days to respond to tweaks in the framework because of the courier system used to communicate with him.

利益天平的一端是伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。他目前仍处于躲藏状态，担心自己会像他的父亲、在战争初期美以联合打击中丧生的前最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊那样成为目标。接受本文采访的调停人员表示（他们与其他官员一样，要求匿名以便公开讨论敏感的外交事务），由于与他沟通时采用信使系统，对框架进行微调都需要几天时间才能得到回复。

Just as Mr. Trump faces Iran hawks at home, the younger Khamenei needs to ensure that the deal does not incense his hard-liners, particularly high-ranking officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. They argue that Iran — with its newfound ability to close traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — should not concede anything to a country that killed many of their top leaders. Convinced that Washington will inevitably attack Iran again, they are pushing the kind of aggressive posturing that led to Tehran’s strikes on Israel this week.

正如特朗普在国内面临对伊鹰派的压力，小哈梅内伊也需要确保该协议不会激怒国内的强硬派，特别是伊斯兰革命卫队的高级军官。他们认为，凭借最新获得的封锁霍尔木兹海峡交通的能力，伊朗不应该向一个杀害了该国许多最高领导人的国家作出让步。他们深信，华盛顿终将再次攻击伊朗，因此他们正在推动那种导致本周德黑兰对以色列发动打击的激进姿态。

Then there is a mercurial Mr. Trump, frustrated by his inability to speak directly to Mr. Khamenei and impatient with Iran’s drawn-out negotiating style. He has repeatedly reneged on terms agreed to by his top negotiators, a dynamic that began in the very first round of talks after the cease-fire in Pakistan in April, two mediators and an official with direct knowledge told The New York Times.

另一方面则是变幻莫测的特朗普，他因无法直接与哈梅内伊对话感到沮丧，并且对伊朗拖沓的谈判风格感到不耐烦。两名调停人和一名直接知情的官员告诉《纽约时报》，他曾多次背弃自己的首席谈判代表同意的条款，这种局面始于4月巴基斯坦斡旋下停火后的首轮会谈。

At those negotiations, they said, Mr. Trump’s envoys — the real estate mogul Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance — told the Iranians that Mr. Trump would accept a deal in which Iran suspended its nuclear enrichment program for 10 years. Iranian officials said they agreed to that initial proposal — and were shocked when the president turned around and insisted on a 20-year suspension. It was a major reason, the mediators said, that those talks fell apart.

他们称，在这些谈判中，特朗普的特使——房地产大亨史蒂夫·威特科夫和副总统万斯——告诉伊朗人，特朗普将接受一项要求伊朗暂停其核浓缩计划10年的协议。伊朗官员表示同意这一初步提议——但后来总统态度大转弯并坚持要求暂停20年，伊朗官员感到震惊。调停人说，这是导致该次谈判破裂的一个主要原因。

In the latest round of negotiations, some mediators and Iranian officials said that as the two sides waited days for Mr. Khamenei to respond to the latest draft, Mr. Trump added new conditions regarding Iran’s nuclear program and frozen assets. The move infuriated Iranian officials, who described it as validating Tehran’s mistrust of Mr. Trump.

在最新一轮谈判中，一些调停人和伊朗官员表示，就在双方等待哈梅内伊对最新草案作出回应的几天里，特朗普就伊朗核计划和冻结资产问题提出了新条件。这一举动激怒了伊朗官员，他们声称，这印证了德黑兰对特朗普的不信任。

3月拍摄的一张卫星图像显示了位于伊朗中部纳坦兹核设施附近的隧道群。

The chaotic nature of the talks themselves has not helped matters. Because Tehran continues to refuse direct talks with Washington, a rotating set of countries — currently Pakistan and Qatar — have to shuttle between them. At times, analysts said, there is more than one document in circulation, with only a few people at the very top aware of which draft is the live one.

谈判本身混乱的性质也无助于局面。由于德黑兰继续拒绝与华盛顿直接对话，一些轮流担任中间人的国家——目前是巴基斯坦和卡塔尔——必须在两国之间穿梭。分析人士指出，有时候会有多份文件同时流传，只有极少数高层人员知道哪一份草案才是正在讨论的版本。

Despite the starts and stops, most analysts believe that some kind of a preliminary deal — likely to be temporary and vague — will emerge in coming weeks. “Not because anyone wants one,” Dr. Vakil said, but because both sides need one.

尽管谈判时断时续，但大多数分析人士认为，未来几周内将达成某种初步协议——可能是暂时的，而且措辞模糊。“不是因为有人想要达成协议，”瓦基尔表示。“而是因为双方都需要一份协议。”

Iran, suffering from runaway inflation and a currency collapse even before the war, is plunging ever deeper into a devastating economic crisis. Mr. Trump has to grapple with deeper global economic shocks as his party faces midterm elections this fall amid crushing prices at the gas pump.

伊朗在战前就饱受通货膨胀失控和货币崩溃之苦，如今正愈发深陷一场毁灭性的经济危机。而特朗普也不得不应对更深层次的全球经济冲击，与此同时，他的政党将面临今年秋天的中期选举，汽油价格也居高不下。

During a call on Monday, Mr. Trump told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that the United States and Iran were within days of a breakthrough for talks on a long-term nuclear deal, according to multiple officials with knowledge of the call.

据多位知情官员透露，在周一的通话中，特朗普告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，在关于长期核协议的谈判方面，美国和伊朗距离取得突破仅剩几天时间。

Even if an initial deal is reached, the probability that it will lead to a final, comprehensive nuclear agreement is far less likely, Ms. Vakil said.

瓦基尔说，即使达成初步协议，它最终能演变为全面核协议的可能性也微乎其微

周一，特朗普总统乘坐海军陆战队一号直升机抵达纽约。

Keenly aware of the slim chances of reaching a final deal, Tehran is insistent on the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars’ worth of frozen Iranian assets in the region — a term U.S. negotiators initially agreed to, mediators and Iranian officials said.

德黑兰深知达成最终协议的机会渺茫，因此坚持要求解冻伊朗在该地区价值数百亿美元的资产——调停人和伊朗官员表示，美方谈判代表最初曾同意这一条件。

But this has become a thorny issue for Mr. Trump, who is fixated on not wanting to look weak and who was a vocal critic of the Obama and Biden administrations for unfreezing several billion dollars’ worth of Iranian assets in apparent exchange for the release of U.S. citizens.

但这对于特朗普来说已经成为一个棘手问题。他非常执着于不让自己显得软弱，而且他曾公开批评奥巴马和拜登政府似乎为了换取美国公民获释而解冻数十亿美元的伊朗资产。

On the day she was sworn in as mayor, Eileen Wang spoke in soaring terms about her journey from a “small mountain village” in China to America, and specifically to Arcadia, a small city in Southern California.

宣誓就任市长那天，王爱琳用慷慨激昂的言辞讲述了她从中国一个“小山村”来到美国，特别是来到南加州小城阿卡迪亚的旅程。

Then her speech took a sharp turn.

随后，她话锋一转。

“As Americans, and especially as elected officials, our loyalty must always be clear,” she said, “to this country, to our constitution, to our residents, and to no one else.”

“作为美国人，尤其是作为民选官员，我们的忠诚必须始终明确，”她说。“忠于这个国家，忠于我们的宪法，忠于我们的居民，绝不忠于其他任何人。”

Three months later, in May, federal prosecutors announced that Ms. Wang, 56, had agreed to plead guilty to acting as an illegal foreign agent of the Chinese government. She resigned as mayor that day and faces up to 10 years in jail.

三个月后的5月，联邦检察官宣布，56岁的王爱琳承认充当中国政府非法外国代理人的罪名。她于当天辞去市长职务，面临最高10年的监禁。

Ms. Wang’s speech in February is just one of many plot points that have deepened the mystery around her true identity.

王爱琳2月的演讲只是加深围绕她真实身份谜团的众多情节之一。

She jumped into city politics in her 50s, first as a Republican, then a Democrat. She had a fiancé who was a foreign agent. Or maybe not.

她在50多岁时投身城市政治，先是作为共和党人，后来又转为民主党人。她曾有一个身为外国代理人的未婚夫。或许也并非如此。

Before winning election to the City Council in 2022, she had actively promoted ties between the United States and China and voiced support for one of Beijing’s overarching goals, absorbing Taiwan. But some of her former colleagues said they could not recall any obvious examples of how she might have used public office to promote pro-Beijing views — or really any strong opinions at all.

在2022年赢得市议会选举之前，她曾积极推动美中关系，并表示支持北京的核心目标之一——吞并台湾。但她的一些前同事表示，他们想不起任何明显的例子，证明她曾利用公职推广亲北京的观点——他们甚至根本记不起她曾有过任何强烈的观点。

“She just votes, and I don’t even remember how she votes,“ said Sharon Kwan, an Arcadia councilwoman.

“她只是投票，我甚至不记得她是怎么投的，”阿卡迪亚市议员关美满说。

Federal prosecutors have painted Ms. Wang, who pleaded guilty last month, as part of a concerted effort by Beijing to undermine American democracy. According to her plea agreement, Ms. Wang and Mike Sun operated a website, U.S. News Center, that circulated pro-Beijing propaganda at the direction of Chinese government officials from late 2020 through at least 2022.

联邦检察官称，上个月认罪的王爱琳是北京破坏美国民主这一协同行动中的一环。根据她的认罪协议，从2020年底到至少2022年，王爱琳和孙耀宁在中国政府官员的指示下，运营着一个传播亲北京宣传的网站——“美国新闻中心”。

Ms. Wang had variously described Mr. Sun as her boyfriend and fiancé. And Mr. Sun described Ms. Wang in a report for Chinese government officials as a “new political star” who had connections to higher-level American politicians, court documents show.

王爱琳曾多次将孙耀宁描述为她的男朋友和未婚夫。法院文件显示，孙耀宁在一份给中国政府官员的报告中称，王爱琳是一个与更高层美国政界人士有联系的“政治新星”。

中国最高领导人习近平于2021年在庆祝中国共产党成立100周年纪念活动上讲话。

Analysts of Chinese politics say Ms. Wang’s case reflects Beijing’s efforts to influence both local American politics and the Chinese diaspora, as seen in recent cases in New York and San Francisco. China’s goal, intelligence officials and prosecutors say, is part of a long game to cultivate ties with politicians who might someday promote Beijing’s agenda on higher levels. It is also to keep tabs on the Chinese diaspora and silence dissidents.

中国政治分析人士表示，王爱琳的案件反映了北京在影响美国地方政治和海外华人社群方面的努力，这在纽约和旧金山的近期案件中亦有体现。情报官员和检察官表示，中国的目标是开展一项长期战略，旨在与未来可能在更高层级推动北京议程的政界人士建立联系。此举也是为了监视海外华人并压制异见人士。

But as Ms. Wang’s case demonstrates, the nature and effectiveness of these efforts vary widely. What did the Chinese government see in a low-level politician? How much did Ms. Wang know about what was being relayed to Chinese officials? And was she really a rising “political star”?

但正如王爱琳的案件所表明的，这些努力的性质和成效差异巨大。中国政府为何看中这样一个低层政治人士？王爱琳对传递给中国官员的信息了解多少？她真的算是一个崛起的“政治新星”吗？

In Ms. Wang’s telling, she fell in love with the wrong guy, making her more of a puppet than a mastermind.

在王爱琳的自述中，她爱上了不该爱的人，这让她更像傀儡，而不是主谋。

Her lawyers, who declined requests for an interview with Ms. Wang, emphasized that her actions had mostly taken place before she was elected to the City Council and before she became mayor, a position council members hold on a rotating basis. And, they say, her actions were not an “inherently nefarious act” and not equivalent to spying.

她的律师拒绝了对王爱琳的采访请求，但强调她的行为大多发生在选入市议会和成为市长之前（市长一职由市议员轮流担任）。他们表示，她的行为并不是“本质上的恶意行为”，也不等同于间谍活动。

China’s influence play “is not a well-oiled machine,” said Audrye Wong, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies the subject. “It relies on all these local actors that are hustling for their own personal interest.”

“中国的渗透破坏并不是一台运转良好的精密机器，”美国企业研究所研究该课题的高级研究员黄韵琪说。“它依赖于所有这些为个人利益而奔忙的地方行为者。”

The ‘Chinese Beverly Hills’

“中国的比弗利山庄”

Ms. Wang was born in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu in 1969 to parents who were both doctors, according to court documents and Ms. Wang’s public speeches.

根据法院文件和王爱琳的公开演讲，王爱琳于1969年出生于中国西南城市成都，父母都是医生。

She moved to the United States in 1995, and wrote on her campaign website that she had studied business management at the University of Southern California. (The university said it could not confirm her attendance.) Around 2006, she moved to Arcadia, drawn by the acclaimed schools for her two young sons, she once told The Los Angeles Times.

她于1995年移居美国，并在其竞选网站上写道，她曾在南加州大学学习商业管理。（该大学表示无法确认她的就读情况。）大约在2006年，她搬到了阿卡迪亚，她曾告诉《洛杉矶时报》，吸引她的是备受赞誉的当地学区，她认为这对她的两个年幼儿子有好处。

She was part of a wave of mainland Chinese immigrants that moved to the well-heeled suburb starting in the 2000s.

她属于21世纪初涌入这个富裕郊区的中国大陆移民潮中的一员。

China’s economic boom had created a class of overnight millionaires, many of whom looked to the San Gabriel Valley, which encompasses Arcadia, as a place to enroll their children in American schools and to safeguard their newfound wealth. These newcomers drove flashy cars and built McMansions on lots where modest ranch homes once stood.

中国的经济腾飞造就了一批一夜暴富的富豪，其中许多人将目光投向了包含阿卡迪亚在内的圣盖博谷，将其作为让子女就读美国学校和保护其新财富的理想之地。这些新移民开着豪车，在原本只有朴素平房的土地上建起了巨型豪宅。

By 2020, the city was 65 percent Asian, up from 45 percent in 2000. And it had earned a nickname: “Chinese Beverly Hills.”

到2020年，该市的亚裔人口比例从2000年的45%上升到65%。它也因此获得了一个绰号：“中国的比弗利山庄”。

Ms. Wang, whom her lawyers said was a U.S. citizen, did not appear to be part of this influx of wealth. She and her then husband, Henry Wang, ran an after-school tutoring program, Little Stanford Academy. Her address history shows a series of relatively modest homes in the area.

王爱琳的律师称她是美国公民，她似乎并不属于这股财富洪流。她和当时的丈夫亨利·王（音）开办了一家名为“小斯坦福学院”的课后辅导机构。她的住址记录显示，她在该地区居住过一系列相对朴素的住宅。

Social media posts on accounts associated with Ms. Wang suggest that she had also worked as a real estate agent and cafe owner, and participated in local organizations like the Chamber of Commerce and Rotary Club.

与王爱琳相关的社交媒体账号帖子表明，她还曾做过房地产经纪人和咖啡馆老板，并参与了商会和扶轮社等当地组织。

Thomas Beck, a retired lawyer who is also a former Arcadia mayor, recalled Ms. Wang telling him that she had divorced her husband.

退休律师、前阿卡迪亚市长托马斯·贝克回忆说，王爱琳曾告诉他，自己已经和丈夫离婚。

Reached by phone, Mr. Wang declined a request for comment.

记者通过电话联系到亨利·王时，他拒绝了置评请求。

In 2018, Ms. Wang established the American Southwest Chamber of Commerce, which promoted business and cultural ties with China. At the group’s founding ceremony, flags from both countries were arranged side-by-side, and performers sang both national anthems.

2018年，王爱琳创立了美国西南商会，旨在促进与中国的商业和文化联系。在该协会的成立典礼上，中美两国的国旗并排悬挂，表演者演奏并演唱了两国的国歌。

In remarks delivered in English, Ms. Wang noted the group’s goal to “promote the integration of Chinese immigrants into American society.” She then gave a lengthier speech in Mandarin, adding that the group was dedicated to promoting China’s “great rejuvenation” and the “peaceful reunification” of the motherland.

在用英文发表的讲话中，王女士指出该协会的目标是“促进华裔移民融入美国社会”。随后她用中文发表了更长的演说，补充说该协会致力于推动中国的“伟大复兴”以及中国的“和平统一”。

That speech echoed China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, for whom China’s “great rejuvenation” is a favorite catchphrase and mainland China’s “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan a longtime goal. Within Taiwan, the prospect of unifying with China has become increasingly unpopular, and Beijing’s growing aggression toward the island democracy has become a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

这番讲话呼应了中国最高领导人习近平——“伟大复兴”是他喜爱的口号，而与台湾的“和平统一”则是其长期目标。在台湾岛内，与中国统一的前景已变得越来越不受欢迎，而北京对这个岛屿民主政体日益咄咄逼人的态势已成为美中关系的一个爆发点。

In 2018, Mr. Wang’s name appeared on the nonprofit’s incorporation papers. By the next year, a local report indicated that someone else had become the chairman: Yaoning Sun, otherwise known as Mike.

2018年，亨利·王的名字出现在这个非营利组织的注册文件上。到第二年，当地报道显示，另一个人成为了主席：孙耀宁，英文名Mike。

The Boyfriend

男朋友

In the San Gabriel Valley, Mr. Sun was known for working on cultural exchanges between the United States and China.

在圣盖博谷，孙耀宁以从事美中文化交流工作而闻名。

Like many similar groups, the American Southwest Chamber of Commerce organized charity drives and events that often brought together Chinese business leaders and community figures, as well as American politicians and officials from the Chinese consulate.

与许多类似组织一样，美国西南商会组织慈善募捐和活动，这些活动常将华裔商业领袖、社区人物以及美国政界人士和中国领事馆官员聚在一起。

By 2020, Ms. Wang and Mr. Sun had started U.S. News Center, a Chinese-language website for the local Chinese American community, according to her plea agreement.

根据认罪协议，到2020年，王爱琳和孙耀宁创办了“美国新闻中心”，这是一个面向当地华裔美国人社区的中文网站。

Archived versions of the now defunct website show content much like that of other Chinese-language “news” outlets that have emerged in recent years — ranging from geopolitics to U.S. military news, film festival reports and stock market developments.

这个现已停办的网站的存档版本显示，其内容与近年来出现的其他中文“新闻”媒体非常相似——涵盖地缘政治、美国军事新闻、电影节报道以及股市动态等各个领域。

孙耀宁在中央电视台春节联欢晚会上。

Prosecutors said that Ms. Wang and Mr. Sun “executed directives” from Chinese government officials by posting pro-Beijing articles and then reporting audience numbers. It is unclear whether they were paid for their work.

检察官表示，王爱琳和孙耀宁通过发布亲北京的文章并汇报浏览量，“执行”了中国政府官员的“指令”。目前尚不清楚他们是否因此工作获得了报酬。

The propaganda is unsurprising — offering, for instance, China’s defense of its repressive crackdown on the Uyghurs.

这些宣传并不令人意外——例如，为中国对维吾尔人的镇压行为进行辩护。

In August 2021, officials complimented Ms. Wang for a post that she said had been viewed more than 15,000 times, according to the plea agreement.

根据认罪协议，2021年8月，官员赞扬了王爱琳发表的一篇帖子，她说该帖子的浏览量已超过1.5万次。

“Thank you leader,” she responded.

“谢谢领导，”她回复。

Archives show that the website also regularly published transcripts of news conferences by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as political documents by the Chinese Communist Party.

档案显示，该网站还定期发布中国外交部新闻发布会的文字实录，以及中国共产党的政治文件。

Ms. Wang also appeared on the website. An October 2021 article noted her familial ties to two prominent historical figures, including an early 20th-century Communist naval commander.

王爱琳也出现在该网站上。2021年10月的一篇文章提到了她与两位著名历史人物的家族联系，其中包括20世纪初的一位共产党海军司令。

“I plan to carry forward the unfinished legacy of my revolutionary ancestors,” she was quoted as saying, and “do my best to build friendship between the U.S. and China.”

“我要继承革命先辈的遗志，”文章引用她的话说，“尽我最大努力促进中美两国的友谊。”

‘New Political Star’

“政治新星”

By 2022, Ms. Wang was campaigning for Arcadia City Council.

到2022年，王爱琳开始竞选阿卡迪亚市议员。

In an early campaign filing, she registered as a Republican, but later switched to the Democratic Party to better align with her constituents, she told The Los Angeles Times in 2024.

在一份早期竞选文件中，她注册为共和党人，但后来转为民主党人，以便更好地与她的选民保持一致，她在2024年接受《洛杉矶时报》采访时这样说。

She campaigned on improving public safety and addressing homelessness. She racked up endorsements and raised more than $119,000, an impressive haul in a race in which most candidates took in the tens of thousands. On social media, she documented enthusiastic door knocking.

她以改善公共安全和解决无家可归问题为竞选主张，获得了大量支持并筹集了超过11.9万美元，在多数候选人仅能筹得数万美元的竞选中，这一数额相当可观。在社交媒体上，她记录了自己充满热情的登门拜访。

Mr. Sun was listed as her campaign treasurer. By late 2022, he was also described as her fiancé.

孙耀宁被列为她的竞选财务主管。到2022年底，他也被称为她的未婚夫。

In a December 2022 speech when she was sworn into the City Council, Ms. Wang thanked “my fiancé, director Mike Sun, who walked the streets with me every single day, who is a real leader of me.”

在2022年12月宣誓就职市议会的演讲中，王爱琳感谢了“我的未婚夫，迈克·孙主管，他每天都陪我走上街头，他是我真正的领导者。”

The day after she was sworn in, Ms. Wang attended a meeting in Southern California that included Mr. Sun, according to court documents.

法院文件显示，在她宣誓就职的第二天，王爱琳出席了在南加州举行的一场会议，孙耀宁也参加了该会议。

John Chen, who had been known as an overseas consultant to the Chinese government, later described the group to Chinese government officials as a “team dedicated” to Beijing’s interests, according to court documents. (Mr. Chen was sentenced in 2024 to 20 months in prison for acting as an illegal foreign agent.)

根据法院文件显示，曾被视为中国政府海外顾问的陈军后来向中国政府官员描述，他们这伙人是一个“致力于”北京利益的“团队”。（陈军因充当非法外国代理人于2024年被判处20个月监禁。）

Mr. Sun later drafted a report that described Ms. Wang as a “new political star,” and a list of U.S. officials she was “familiar” with, court documents show.

法院文件显示，孙耀宁随后起草了一份报告，将王爱琳描述为“政治新星”，并列出了她所“熟悉”的美国官员名单。

In conversations with Chinese government officials, the men claimed credit for Ms. Wang’s election victory, court documents show.

法院文件显示，在与中国政府官员的交谈中，这两个人声称王爱琳的当选是他们的功劳。

It is unclear whether, or to what extent, Ms. Wang was aware of this communication. “I think we should not let her know for now,” Mr. Chen told Mr. Sun in a February 2023 audio message.

目前尚不清楚王爱琳是否知晓、或在多大程度上知晓这些沟通。“我认为目前不应该让她知道，”陈军在2023年2月的一条音频信息中对孙耀宁说。

The Fall

倒台

As an Arcadia councilwoman, Ms. Wang attended the city’s Christmas tree lighting and supported veterans programs, according to social media posts and interviews with other council members.

根据社交媒体上的帖子以及对其他市议员的采访，作为阿卡迪亚市议员，王爱琳参加了该市的圣诞树点灯仪式和支持退伍军人项目。

Her City Council colleagues noted Ms. Wang’s seemingly boundless enthusiasm for showing up to events. In the beginning, Mr. Sun was often around, said April Verlato, a former mayor who was on the council with Ms. Wang.

她的市议会同事注意到，王爱琳对出席活动有着似乎无限的热情。曾与王爱琳一同在市议会共事的前市长阿普里尔·维尔拉托表示，刚开始的时候，孙耀宁经常在场。

“He took her to everything,” Ms. Verlato recalled.

“他带她去参加所有活动，”维尔拉托回忆道。

Contentious China-related issues almost never rose to the council agenda, colleagues said.

同事们说，涉及中国的争议性议题几乎从未被列入市议会议程。

王爱琳，摄于2025年4月。

Privately, Ms. Wang continued promoting her commerce group. In February 2023, she went to Boca Raton, Fla., to attend a small gathering of leaders from overseas Chinese groups and officials from the Chinese Embassy in Washington, according to an article from an online Chinese-language account.

据某中文网络账号的一篇文章称，王爱琳私下里继续推广她的商业团体，2023年2月，她前往佛罗里达州博卡拉顿，参加了海外华人社团领袖与中国驻华盛顿大使馆官员的一个小型聚会。

In July 2023, Ms. Wang officially stepped down from her position as president. At the annual conference in California, which was well attended by local elected officials, American and Chinese flags were once again displayed side-by-side. Mr. Sun was noted as the director of the ceremony.

2023年7月，王爱琳正式卸任会长职务。在加利福尼亚州举行的年会上（有很多当地民选官员出席），美国国旗和中国国旗再次并排悬挂。孙耀宁据称是此次典礼的总监。

Ms. Wang and Mr. Sun maintained ties through at least September 2023, when they traveled together to Los Angeles from a trip to China, court documents showed. The documents do not specify the purpose of the trip.

法院文件显示，王爱琳和孙耀宁至少在2023年9月前一直保持着联系，当时他们一同从中国旅行返回洛杉矶。文件没有说明那次旅行的目的。

Then, in December 2024, federal prosecutors announced charges against Mr. Sun, who later pleaded guilty to acting as an illegal agent of a foreign government. He was sentenced in February to 48 months in federal prison. Adam Olin, Mr. Sun’s public defender, declined a request for comment.

随后，在2024年12月，联邦检察官宣布了对孙耀宁的指控，孙耀宁后来承认充当外国政府非法代理人的罪名。他于2月被判处48个月的联邦监禁。孙耀宁的公共辩护人亚当·奥林拒绝了置评请求。

As Mr. Sun’s legal troubles grew, Ms. Wang tried to distance herself from him.

随着孙耀宁的法律麻烦不断增加，王爱琳试图与他拉开距离。

During a City Council meeting in September, Ms. Wang reversed course from her previous statements, flatly denying that Mr. Sun had ever been her fiancé. He was now her “ex-boyfriend,” and she dared anyone to suggest otherwise.

在9月份的一次市议会会议上，王爱琳推翻了她先前的言论，断然坚称孙耀宁从不是她的未婚夫。他现在是她的“前男友”，并且向质疑者挑战。

“Please prove it,” Ms. Wang said.

“请拿出证据来，”王爱琳说。

“I am very proud of myself,” she went on to say. “I always stand with our country.”

“我为自己感到非常自豪，”她接着说。“我始终与我们的国家站在一起。”

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, made a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in seven years. He received a lavish welcome from his counterpart, Kim Jong-un.

中国最高领导人习近平对朝鲜进行了为期两天的访问，这是他七年来首次访问朝鲜。他受到朝鲜领导人金正恩的盛情欢迎。

The main ceremony took place on Monday in Pyongyang, the capital, at Kim Il Sung Square, the North Korean equivalent to Tiananmen Square in Beijing. It is overlooked by the Grand People’s Study House, North Korea’s national library.

主要仪式于周一在首都平壤的金日成广场举行，该广场相当于北京的天安门广场。广场对面矗立着朝鲜国家图书馆——人民大学习堂。

Portraits of Mr. Kim’s predecessors – his grandfather, the country’s founder, and his father – usually dominate the square. But on Monday, large portraits of Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim were placed at the center.

金正恩的前任们的肖像通常占据着广场中心——那是他的祖父、该国创始人和他的父亲。但周一，习近平和金正恩的大型肖像被摆放在了广场中央。

Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim themselves stood in front of the portraits with their wives, Peng Liyuan and Ri Sol-ju, behind the men.

习近平和金正恩两人站在肖像前，二人的妻子彭丽媛和李雪主站在他们身后。

Further behind were senior officials from both governments.

再后面是两国政府的高级官员。

Massive and formally dressed crowds, including children, filled the square in a highly choreographed display of loyalty.

大批身着正装的人挤满广场，其中包括儿童，他们上演精心编排的表忠心场面。

Large banners pledged a long-running friendship between the two countries.

巨大的横幅宣示着两国之间源远流长的友谊。

Mr. Kim relies heavily on these spectacles to project power and political messages. This type of reception is only reserved for a small group of visiting foreign dignitaries.

金正恩极度依赖这些场面来彰显威望并传递政治信息。此类接待仅限于少数来访的外国政要。

The Chinese leader’s visit comes at a pivotal moment for both countries. China is seeking to reassert its influence as North Korea’s largest trading partner and closest ally, looking to counterbalance Mr. Kim’s recent drift toward President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

中国领导人此次访问正值两国关系的关键时刻。中国正寻求重申作为朝鲜最大贸易伙伴和最亲密盟友的影响力，以制衡金正恩近期向俄罗斯总统普京的靠拢。

Feeding Mr. Putin’s war effort in Ukraine has transformed Mr. Kim’s fortunes, giving him a stronger hand in talks with Mr. Xi. But he is still looking to Beijing for vital economic aid and diplomatic cover — seeking recognition as a nuclear power and a partnership in building the “multipolar” world order that both nations envision as a counterweight to American dominance.

为普京在乌克兰的战争提供支持使金正恩的处境发生了转变，他也得以在同习近平的会谈中掌握更多筹码。但他仍需仰仗北京提供至关重要的经济援助和外交庇护——寻求作为核大国得到承认，并建立伙伴关系，构建两国共同设想的“多极化”世界秩序，以此作为对美国霸权的制衡。

Mr. Xi cast the visit as “an opportunity to strengthen” coordination between Beijing and Pyongyang, according to Chinese state media.

据中国官方媒体报道，习近平将此次访问视为“加强”北京与平壤之间协调的“契机”。

China prizes North Korea as a vital buffer against U.S. influence in Northeast Asia — backing Pyongyang in the Korean War and cementing ties with a 1961 alliance treaty. Now, Mr. Kim and Mr. Xi have pledged to mark the treaty’s 65th anniversary this year by forging an even broader strategic front against Washington and its allies.

中国将朝鲜视为抵御美国在东北亚影响力的重要缓冲，北京曾在朝鲜战争中支持平壤，并通过1961年的同盟条约巩固了双边关系。如今，金正恩和习近平已承诺，借今年条约签署65周年之机，共同打造一个更广泛的战略阵线，以对抗华盛顿及其盟友。

Although bound by the treaty, relations between China and North Korea have long been marked by tension and distrust. Fractures emerged as China built robust trade ties with South Korea during post-Cold War decades, as North Korea conducted nuclear weapons tests, and as Beijing joined Washington in imposing tough sanctions. In his first seven years as China’s top leader, Mr. Xi never visited Pyongyang, depriving Mr. Kim of the prestige of hosting his most powerful neighbor.

尽管有着同盟条约，但中朝关系长期以来一直充斥着紧张与猜疑。冷战后的几十年里，随着中国与韩国建立起牢固的贸易关系、朝鲜进行核武器试验，以及北京与华盛顿一道对朝鲜实施严厉制裁，中朝关系出现了裂缝。在习近平担任中国最高领导人的最初七年里，他从未访问过平壤，使得金正恩无缘享受接待这位最强大邻国的殊荣。

The dynamic began to shift when Mr. Kim became the first North Korean leader to meet a sitting American president, holding three summit meetings with President Trump in 2018 and 2019. Mr. Xi met with Mr. Kim before or after each of those summits in an effort to keep Pyongyang within China’s orbit. Ties cooled during the pandemic, but Mr. Kim’s growing alignment with Moscow has since compelled Beijing to court North Korea once again.

当金正恩成为首位与现任美国总统会晤的朝鲜领导人，并于2018年和2019年与特朗普总统举行三次峰会时，这种局面开始发生转变。在每一次峰会之前或之后，习近平都会与金正恩进行会晤，试图将平壤留在中国的轨道内。疫情期间双方关系有所降温，但自那以后，金正恩与莫斯科日益紧密的结盟迫使北京再次拉拢朝鲜。

This week's talks in Pyongyang “may be remembered as the most consequential of the seven summit meetings” the two leaders have held to date, said Sung-Yoon Lee, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a think tank in Seoul. The repeated invocation of “strategic” in both governments' statements, combined with an unprecedented focus on military exchanges, he said, suggests that “Beijing is increasingly defining North Korea as a long-term strategic partner in an emerging Eurasian geopolitical contest versus the U.S. and its allies.”

首尔智库世宗研究所高级研究员李成允（音）表示，本周在平壤举行的会谈“可能会被视为两国领导人迄今的七次峰会中影响最深远的一次”。他指出，两国政府在声明中反复使用“战略”一词，再加上声明中对军事交流前所未有的关注，表明“在对抗美国及其盟友的新兴欧亚地缘政治竞争中，北京正日益将朝鲜定义为长期战略合作伙伴”。

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, arrived in North Korea on Monday and delivered what analysts said was a subtle reminder to the country’s newly emboldened dictator, Kim Jong-un, that China is his most important benefactor, economic partner and bulwark against the United States.

中国最高领导人习近平于周一抵达朝鲜。分析人士称，此行向朝鲜近来日益大胆的独裁者金正恩发出了微妙的提醒：中国是他最重要的援助国、经济伙伴以及对抗美国的屏障。

According to an official summary of the leaders’ talks released by Chinese state media, Mr. Xi called for “close strategic communication” with Mr. Kim and for strengthening exchanges “at all levels and in all fields.” He said he was willing to deepen relations with Mr. Kim in “the new era,” a phrase Mr. Xi has used to project China’s growing strength on the world stage.

根据中国官方媒体发布的领导人会谈官方通报，习近平呼吁与金正恩进行“密切战略沟通”，并加强“各层级各领域”的交流。他表示愿意在“新时代”深化与金正恩的关系，“新时代”是习近平用来彰显中国在世界舞台上实力日益增强的词汇。

In many ways, Mr. Xi’s two-day trip to Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, is an effort to balance influence from Russia, which signed a mutual defense pact with North Korea two years ago. That deal has helped revive North Korea’s economy, by allowing Mr. Kim to trade weapons and troops with Russia for badly needed oil, food and weapons technology, and given him a stronger hand in talks with Mr. Xi.

在许多方面，习近平对朝鲜首都平壤为期两天的访问旨在平衡俄罗斯的影响力，两年前，俄罗斯与朝鲜签署了共同防御协定。该协定允许金正恩以武器和军队换取急需的石油、粮食和武器技术，这帮助朝鲜复苏了经济，并使金正恩在与习近平的会谈中拥有了更多筹码。

Mr. Xi was received by Mr. Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, when he landed in Pyongyang, his first trip there in seven years. His motorcade was greeted by a military honor guard and throngs of citizens waving both national flags, with children dancing and clutching bright balloons. North Korea gave Mr. Xi a similar welcome the last time he visited Pyongyang.

习近平抵达平壤时，受到了金正恩及其夫人李雪主的迎接，这是习近平七年来首次访问平壤。他的车队受到仪仗队的欢迎，大批市民挥舞着两国国旗，孩子们手持鲜艳的气球起舞。上次习近平访问平壤时，朝鲜也给予了类似的欢迎。

At a meeting at the Kumsusan Guest House, Mr. Xi pledged to cooperate with Mr. Kim in trade, agriculture, science, tourism and health care.

在锦绣山迎宾馆举行的会谈中，习近平承诺将在贸易、农业、科学、旅游和医疗保健领域与金正恩开展合作。

周一，平壤的一条街道上悬挂着朝鲜和中国的国旗。

North Korea had not released a statement about the meeting by late Monday. Mr. Kim was expected to press Mr. Xi for more economic support and possibly a greater acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

截至周一晚间，朝鲜尚未发布有关此次会晤的声明。预计金正恩将敦促习近平提供更多经济支持，并可能要求中方对朝鲜的核武器计划给予更大程度的认可。

China’s summary made no mention of the nuclear program, instead stressing that the two countries should “jointly safeguard regional peace and development.”

中方的通报没有提及核计划，而是强调两国应“共同为地区和世界的和平繁荣作出贡献”。

China’s long held position is that it opposes a nuclear North Korean state, largely over concerns about driving U.S. allies like South Korea to seek nuclear weapons. Statements about working toward ending the program used to be standard for the two sides during diplomatic engagements, but they have been omitted since last September, when Mr. Kim visited Beijing to attend a military parade.

中国长期以来的立场是反对朝鲜成为核国家，主要是担心这样会促使韩国等美国盟友寻求核武器。在过去的外交接触中，关于致力于终止该计划的声明是双方惯常的表述，但自去年9月金正恩访问北京参加阅兵式以来，此类表述已被抹去。

“China’s approach to North Korea has shifted markedly over the past seven years, from the role of a mediator for North Korea–U.S. denuclearization talks to that of a strong strategic partner in countering the United States,” said Hong Min, an expert on North Korea at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a research institute based in Seoul.

“过去七年来，中国对朝鲜的做法发生了显著转变，从朝美无核化谈判的调停者变成了对抗美国的强大战略伙伴，”总部位于首尔的研究机构韩国统一研究院的朝鲜问题专家洪珉说。

The change may reflect China’s desire to placate North Korea. But it could also suggest that the Chinese government believes that a nuclear-armed North Korea would provide leverage over the United States and South Korea, analysts said.

分析人士表示，这一转变可能反映了中国安抚朝鲜的愿望。但也可能表明，中国政府认为，一个拥有核武器的朝鲜能为应对美国和韩国提供筹码。

Mr. Xi evoked the two countries’ history fighting the United States together in the Korean War, reminding Mr. Kim that their “traditional friendship” had been “forged in blood.”

习近平提到两国在朝鲜战争中共同抗击美国的历史，提醒金正恩，两国的“传统友谊”是“用鲜血凝成的”。

“The overall message that Beijing wants to project through this summit is the unity and the unbreakable bonds between the two countries,” said William Yang, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group.

“通过这次峰会，北京希望传递的总体信息是两国的团结和牢不可破的纽带，”国际危机组织高级分析师威廉·杨（音）表示。

In a letter published Monday in North Korea’s main state-run newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, Mr. Xi declared that relations between China and North Korea were at a “new historical starting point.”

在周一发表于朝鲜主要官方报纸《劳动新闻》的公开信中，习近平宣布中朝关系处于“新的历史起点”。

He called on the two countries to “oppose hegemonism and power politics,” an oblique reference to the United States. In a veiled swipe at Japan, with which China has been in a monthslong feud, Mr. Xi wrote that they should also oppose “any scheme or action aimed at reviving militarism and undermining regional security and stability.”

他呼吁两国“反对霸权主义和强权政治”，这是对美国的含蓄指代。针对与中国已有数月争端的日本，习近平隐晦抨击道，中朝两国还应反对“一切复活军国主义、危害地区安全稳定的图谋和行径”。

As with Russia and Iran, Mr. Xi has cast North Korea as a close partner in a new world order free of what China sees as U.S. dominance and meddling.

如同对待俄罗斯和伊朗一样，习近平将朝鲜描绘成新世界秩序中的亲密伙伴，而中国认为这一新秩序应摆脱美国的霸权和干涉。

Mr. Kim has said North Korea should boost trade with China to further stimulate its economy and generate hard currency. Yet all its top exports — coal, iron ore, fish and textiles — remain prohibited under United Nations sanctions, creating a huge trade deficit with China that has threatened to drain its foreign currency reserves.

金正恩曾表示，朝鲜应增加与中国的贸易，以进一步刺激经济并赚取硬通货。然而，朝鲜的所有主要出口产品——煤炭、铁矿石、海鲜和纺织品——仍受联合国制裁的禁止，这导致了对华的巨额贸易逆差，并使朝鲜面临耗尽外汇储备的危险。

Mr. Xi’s offers on trade and tourism could change that, but it is not clear whether it is possible to do so without violating U.N. sanctions.

习近平在贸易和旅游方面的提议可能会改变这一现状，但目前尚不清楚是否可以在不违反联合国制裁的情况下实现。

Both China and Russia have grown increasingly reluctant to enforce those sanctions in recent years, as tensions with the United States have worsened. In a joint statement issued last month, Mr. Xi and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared their opposition to “the use of diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, force and pressure” against North Korea.

随着与美国的紧张局势加剧，近年来中国和俄罗斯越来越不愿意执行这些制裁。在上个月发表的联合声明中，习近平和俄罗斯总统普京宣布反对对朝鲜“利用外交孤立、经济制裁、武力施压等手段”。

Such backing has emboldened Mr. Kim to hold on to his nuclear arsenal and insist on being​ treated as a nuclear-armed state. In the days preceding Mr. Xi’s arrival, he visited a missile factory and a newly operational weapons-grade uranium enrichment facility, vowing to “beef up our state’s nuclear forces at an exponential rate.”

这种支持使金正恩更加有恃无恐，坚持保留其核武库，并坚持要求被视为拥核国家来对待。在习近平抵达的前几天，他视察了一家导弹工厂和一个新投产的武器级浓缩铀设施，誓言要“以指数级速度增强我国核力量”。

High in the humid hills above Taipei, Taiwan, the ruins of Shun An Temple sit along a hiking trail. The air smells of damp earth. Only a fragment of the temple walls and a few old incense burners remain.

在台北市郊潮湿的山林中，顺安宫的废墟坐落于一条徒步小径旁。空气里弥漫着泥土的潮气。断壁残垣与几个旧香炉是这座庙宇仅存的印记。

Here, the quiet of the woods is broken by the thump of techno and other electronic dance music.

在这里，林间的静谧被电子舞曲的律动打破。

Hundreds of young people are dancing, bringing life back to a site nearly lost to the forest.

数百名年轻人在此起舞，为这处几乎已被森林吞没的遗址重新注入了生机。

The crowd is a mix of locals and travelers from South Korea, Denmark, Britain and France.

人群中既有台湾本地人，也有来自韩国、丹麦、英国和法国的游客。

Temples in Taiwan, some hundreds of years old, serve as community centers where Buddhism, Taoism and local folk religions blend. Revelers said the setting gave parties a connection to traditions that the clubs in Taipei lacked.

台湾的庙宇是佛教、道教与地方民间信仰交融汇聚的社区中心，其中有些已有数百年历史。参加派对的人说，这样的环境赋予了派对一种台北市区的夜店所无法给予的传统联结。

“There is a bit of a spiritual feeling,” said Lin Hsin-hui, a university student. “There’s also a strong cultural atmosphere, a certain sense of immersion.”

“有一点灵性的感觉，”大学生林欣慧（音）说。“还有浓厚的文化氛围，一种沉浸感。”

These gatherings have become more common in Taiwan in recent years, driven by young people looking for new nightlife spots.

近年来，这类聚会在台湾越来越常见，背后的推动力量是寻找新鲜夜生活场所的年轻人。

A recent temple party drew about 300 people.

最近一场寺庙派对吸引了约300人。

“Being in a familiar religious setting, it gives me a sense of something very rooted,” said Su You-sheng, a D.J. and drummer. “It adds a layer of mystery.”

“置身于熟悉的宗教环境中，它给了我一种根植于此的踏实感，”DJ兼鼓手苏佑昇（音）说。“还多了一层神秘的味道。”

Setting up the hillside parties is physically demanding. Andrew Dawson and Olivia Delacour, who organize them, carry speakers and other equipment up the slippery trails with the help of volunteers.

筹办山间派对是一项体力活。在志愿者的协助下，组织者安德鲁·道森和奥利维娅·德拉库尔沿着湿滑的山路将音箱和其他设备搬上山去。

Ms. Delacour said the parties aim to tap into the sense of community around Taiwan’s temples.

德拉库尔表示，这些派对的目标之一是借势台湾庙宇所凝聚的那种社群感。

“We also make parties more intertwined with nature — the wind, the sun, the light, everything,” said Mr. Dawson, also known by the Chinese name Chen Xuanyu.

“我们也让派对与自然更深地交融——风、阳光、光线，一切的一切，”道森说道，他还有一个中文名字，叫陈炫宇（音）。

“And, of course, spirits.”

“当然，还有神灵。”

The temple managers welcome the parties. They see them as a way to bring young people back to Taiwanese traditions.

庙方管理人员对这些派对表示欢迎。他们认为，这是让年轻人重新接触台湾传统文化的一种方式。

“If it allows more people to engage with it, there’s nothing wrong with that,” said Chu Chih-ming, an executive secretary at a temple that recently hosted another party.

“如果这能让更多人与传统产生联结，那有何不可，”最近承办了另一场派对的某庙宇执行秘书朱志明（音）说。

Partygoers are well-behaved, the organizers said. They prefer not to describe the events as raves, saying illicit drug use is less prevalent in Taiwan than in rave scenes abroad.

组织者表示，参加派对的人都很守规矩。他们不太愿意把这些活动称为电音派对，并指出违禁药物的使用在台湾远比国外的同类场合少见。

People at a recent Shun An Temple party said they were happy to hike up the mountain for an escape from the city.

在最近的顺安宫派对上，许多人表示，他们很乐意爬山来到这里，暂时逃离城市。

“This place feels a bit like it’s in Taipei — but also not really in Taipei,” said Jim Wu, who works at a think tank in the city.

在台北一家智库工作的吉姆·吴说：“这个地方感觉有点像在台北——但又不太像在台北。”

The temple, he said, feels like it is “not quite in the real world.”

他说，这座寺庙感觉“不太像在真实世界里”。

As 3 a.m. approached, a police officer arrived at the temple to check on the noise.

凌晨3时将近，一名警察出现在寺庙，前来了解噪音情况。

Mr. Dawson said the officer listened as the organizers promised to lower the volume. Then he told them to have fun and left.

道森说，那名警察听完主办方保证会把音量调低之后，告诉大家玩得开心，然后就离开了。

There’s a reason you need a napkin when you bite into a ripe summer peach — the fruit is nearly 90 percent water.

要吃熟透的夏桃，总是离不开餐巾纸——这种水果将近90%都是水分。

In addition to helping you stay hydrated, peaches contain nutrients that keep your eyes healthy and may reduce chronic disease risk. Here are some of their biggest benefits, plus some recipes from New York Times Cooking.

除了帮你补水，桃子还富含有助眼睛健康，并可能降低慢性病风险的营养物质。以下是桃子的主要益处，以及来自《纽约时报》烹饪版的几道食谱。

Their potassium is helpful on summer days.

桃子所含的钾元素在夏日大有裨益

Getting fluids from fruit and other food sources is just as good as drinking a glass of water, said Diane Stadler, the director of the graduate programs in human nutrition at Oregon Health & Science University. In addition to their high water content, peaches contain a modest dose of the electrolyte potassium, which you sweat out during exercise and on hot days, she said. Electrolytes like potassium help your muscles contract, your heart pump and your neurons fire.

俄勒冈健康与科学大学人类营养学研究生项目主任黛安·斯塔德勒表示，从水果和其他食物来源获取水分与喝一杯水同样有益。她说，除了高含水量外，桃子还含有适量的电解质钾，而在运动和炎热的天气里，人体会通过出汗流失钾。钾等电解质有助于肌肉收缩、心脏泵血和神经元传导。

One small peach contains around 180 milligrams of potassium, which is about five percent of the recommended daily amount. (By comparison, one Nuun electrolyte tablet contains 125 milligrams.)

一个小桃子约含180毫克钾，大约是每日推荐摄入量的5%。（相比之下，一片Nuun电解质片含有125毫克钾。）

They’re rich in flavonoids and carotenoids.

桃子富含类黄酮和类胡萝卜素

“Peaches combine two groups of pigments that you don’t often see together in other fruits and vegetables,” said Mary Ann Lila, a distinguished professor in the Plants for Human Health Institute at North Carolina State University. Their signature sunset colors come from flavonoids and carotenoids — chemicals plants produce as a defense mechanism against insects and the harmful effects of sunlight.

“桃子结合了两种在其他水果和蔬菜中很少同时出现的色素，”北卡罗来纳州立大学人类健康植物研究所特聘教授玛丽·安·莱拉说。桃子标志性的夕阳色彩来自类黄酮和类胡萝卜素——这是植物为抵御昆虫和阳光的有害影响而产生的防御性化学物质。

Research suggests that people who eat a diet rich in flavonoids, which produce peaches’ red and pink shades, tend to have a lower risk of heart disease.

研究表明，饮食中类黄酮丰富的人患心脏病的风险往往较低。类黄酮正是让桃子呈现红色和粉色的物质。

Flavonoids can also help keep memory and cognition sharp, Dr. Lila said. After gut bacteria break them down, they release chemicals into the bloodstream that can cross into the brain. Dr. Lila has studied flavonoids (using wild blueberry powder, not peaches), and her research has found that a diet rich in them may improve reaction times, motor skills and information processing in older adults.

莱拉表示，类黄酮还有助人类保持敏锐的记忆力和认知能力。在肠道细菌将其分解后，会释放出能进入血液并穿过血脑屏障的化学物质。莱拉曾对类黄酮进行过研究（使用的是野生蓝莓粉，而非桃子），她的研究发现，富含类黄酮的饮食可以改善老年人的反应时间、运动技能和信息处理能力。

Carotenoids, responsible for peaches’ orange tones, are powerful antioxidants, added Beth Olson, an associate professor of nutrition at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Antioxidants help reduce disease risk by binding to free radicals, molecules that can cause damage to our tissues and trigger inflammation.

威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校营养学副教授贝丝·奥尔森说，让桃子呈现橙色调的类胡萝卜素是强效的抗氧化剂。抗氧化剂与自由基（可能对人体组织造成损伤并引发炎症的分子）结合，能够降低患病风险。

They provide a modest amount of vitamin A.

桃子提供适量的维生素A

Carotenoids have a second benefit: The body can convert them into vitamin A. A small peach contains the equivalent of 35 micrograms of vitamin A, around four percent of the recommended daily amount.

类胡萝卜素还有第二个好处：人体可以将它们转化为维生素A。一个小桃子含有相当于35微克的维生素 A，大约是每日推荐摄入量的4%。

Vitamin A is best known for its role in eye health and vision. That’s because it’s a key building block in the retina, the part of the eye that converts light into information that it sends to the brain, Dr. Lila said.

维生素A最广为人知的作用是维护眼部健康和视力。莱拉指出，这是因为维生素A是视网膜（将光线转化为信息并发送到大脑的眼部结构）的关键组成部分。

It’s also crucial for cell division, Dr. Olson said, including those cells that need to replace themselves frequently, like immune and skin cells.

奥尔森表示，维生素A对细胞分裂也至关重要，包括那些需要频繁自我更新的细胞，比如免疫细胞和皮肤细胞。

What’s the best way to eat peaches?

吃桃子的最佳方式是什么？

To maximize the nutritional benefits, don’t peel them, Dr. Lila said: “Most of the good stuff is in the skin.” That includes much of the vitamin A and polyphenols, plus a few grams of heart- and gut-healthy fiber.

莱拉说，为了使营养效益最大化，不要去皮，“大部分好东西都在果皮里。” 这其中包括大部分的维生素A和多酚，外加几克对心脏和肠道有益的膳食纤维。

Before you tuck into that peach, run it under cold water and dry it with a paper towel; that should be enough to remove pesticides and potentially harmful bacteria, Dr. Stadler said.

斯塔德勒建议，在享用桃子之前，先用冷水冲洗，然后用纸巾擦干；这通常足以去除农药和潜在的有害细菌。

While nothing beats a fresh peach, frozen or canned varieties are also nutritious, as long as there is no added sugar, Dr. Olson said. Just keep in mind that you won’t get the health benefits of the skin.

奥尔森表示，虽然新鲜桃子无可替代，但只要不额外添加糖，冷冻或罐装的桃子同样营养丰富。不过要记住，这样就无法获得果皮带来的健康益处。

Dr. Lila recommends cooking peaches without exposing them to too much heat, since that can degrade some important nutrients, like vitamin A. Her favorite method is to cut peaches in half, brush them with olive oil and grill them. Here are some other ideas to try from NYT Cooking.

莱拉建议，烹饪桃子时不要用过高的温度，因为这会破坏一些重要的营养物质，比如维生素A。她最喜欢的方法是把桃子切成两半，刷上橄榄油，然后烤制。以下是一些来自《纽约时报》烹饪版的其他点子。

1. Joojeh Kabab ba Holu (Saffron Chicken Kababs With Peaches)

1. 藏红花鸡肉串配桃子

Linda Xiao for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini.

Skewered peaches and cherry tomatoes are a summery accompaniment to saffron-marinated chicken.

The enduring mystery of the fertility decline has a new culprit: the smartphone.

生育率下降这个长期未解之谜如今又出现了一个新的罪魁祸首：智能手机。

Experts have long wondered if phones played a role in the birthrate decline — which began in 2007, the same year that Apple introduced the iPhone — but until now there had not been hard evidence to prove it.

长期以来，专家们一直怀疑手机可能在出生率下降中发挥了作用——因为出生率下降恰好始于2007年，这一年正是苹果推出iPhone的年份，但此前一直缺乏能够证明这一点的确凿证据。

Two new papers, one published Monday and the other in May, are the first academic endeavors that test whether the smartphone was a cause.

今年5月和本周一相继发表的两篇新论文是首批尝试检验智能手机是否为原因之一的学术研究。

They are the most recent efforts to explain the sweeping fertility rate decline in the United States and other countries over the past 20 years. Researchers have already looked at contraception use, abortion rates, rising levels of female education and even the popular television show “16 and Pregnant.”

这是研究人员近年来为解释过去20年美国及其他国家生育率全面下降所做的最新尝试。此前，他们已经考察过避孕措施使用情况、堕胎率、女性受教育程度提高，甚至连热门真人秀《少女妈妈》都被纳入研究范围。

Proving phones caused the decline is a tricky endeavor. There were a number of major events in those years, including the Great Recession, and isolating smartphone use is difficult.

要证明手机导致生育率下降并非易事。包括全球金融危机在内，那些年发生了许多重大事件，将智能手机的使用单独剥离出来加以分析难度相当之大。

The gold standard for scientific evidence is known as random assignment. It compares outcomes for people randomly chosen to receive a treatment (like getting a smartphone) with people who are not.

科学证据的黄金标准是随机试验，也就是将随机选出的接受某种干预（如获得智能手机）的人群与未接受干预的人群的结果进行比较。

But that is not possible when it comes to ferreting out reasons for declining fertility.

但在追寻生育率下滑的原因时，这种方法并不适用。

So researchers sought out data about smartphones that introduced randomness.

于是，研究人员转而寻找与智能手机相关、能够引入随机性的数据。

Caitlin Myers, an economist at Middlebury College, and Ezekiel Hooper, her student, used the spotty early rollout of the iPhone as a way to isolate the effects of the phone on fertility. The first iPhone was released in June 2007, they wrote, and was available only on the AT&T network until February 2011. The study compared fertility rates in U.S. counties that had near-universal AT&T coverage with counties that had little or none.

明德学院的经济学家凯特琳·迈尔斯和她的学生以西结·胡珀利用iPhone早期推广覆盖面的参差不齐剥离出手机对生育率的影响。他们在论文中写道，第一代iPhone于2007年6月发布，直至2011年2月前只能使用AT&T网络。研究比较了AT&T信号几乎全面覆盖的美国县与几乎没有覆盖地区的生育率变化。

Their paper, published in the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that the iPhone caused as much as half of the fertility decline between 2007 and 2011. The most pronounced effects were among young people aged 15 to 24.

他们发表于国家经济研究局(NBER)的论文发现，iPhone造成了2007年至2011年间生育率下降的一半左右。其中影响最明显的是15至24岁的年轻群体。

What happened in the counties with iPhones? One theory, Professor Myers said, is that young people began to socialize more on their phones and less in person, and consequently were less likely to have sex and become pregnant.

那么，在iPhone普及的地区究竟发生了什么？迈尔斯教授说，一种理论认为，年轻人开始更多地通过手机进行社交，减少了面对面交往，因此发生性行为和怀孕的可能性也随之降低。

Professor Myers said iPhones may also have made pornography more accessible, which led young people to substitute it for sex, or young people may have used them to obtain better information on avoiding pregnancy, including contraception and abortion.

迈尔斯教授表示，iPhone可能也让色情内容更容易获取，导致年轻人用它替代了性行为，也可能因为年轻人能够通过手机获得了更多避免怀孕的信息，包括避孕措施和堕胎。

Researchers not involved in the study said the results were persuasive.

一些未参与该研究的学者认为，这些结果颇具说服力。

Phillip B. Levine, an economist at Wellesley College, said he was “a little jealous” of the Middlebury data, which he said provided a real insight into a potential driver of a major social change.

韦尔斯利学院的经济学家菲利普·莱文表示，他对明德学院使用的数据“有点嫉妒”，认为这些数据为理解一项重大社会变迁的潜在驱动因素提供了真实洞见。

He said some variation in the AT&T data could throw off the final finding. For example, the company may have set up in counties that were wealthier, or more densely populated, introducing a pattern “that’s not likely to be random anymore,” he said.

不过他也指出，AT&T覆盖数据中存在某些差异，可能会影响最终结论。例如，该公司可能优先进入那些更富裕或人口更密集的地区，从而形成一种“不再具有随机性”的模式。

He said that Professor Myers tried to account for those variations, and that her findings made sense.

他表示，迈尔斯教授已尝试对上述差异加以修正，而且研究结果是合理的。

But, he cautioned: “You shouldn’t take the result so literally and say: Oh, it’s the iPhone’s fault. It’s an example of the kinds of social influences that have led to the decline in birth rate.”

但他同时提醒说：“你不应该过于从字面理解这个结果，然后说：‘哦，都是iPhone的错。’这只是导致出生率下降的诸多社会影响的一个例子。”

Dropping birthrates, once a feature of rich societies, are now a near-global phenomenon. The sweep of the decline has researchers looking for common drivers. The authors of the second study also decided to look at smartphones.

出生率下降曾经是富裕社会的特征，现在已近乎成为全球现象。这种下降的广泛性促使研究人员寻找共同的驱动因素。第二项研究的作者也将目光投向了智能手机。

“Countries with very different health care systems, welfare regimes, abortion laws, religious traditions, recessions and demographic trends all saw similar breaks in the same window,” wrote the authors, Hernan Moscoso Boedo, an economics professor at the University of Cincinnati and Nathan Hudson, a Ph.D. student.

来自辛辛那提大学的经济学教授埃尔南·莫斯科索·博埃多和博士生内森·哈德森写道：“医疗体系、福利制度、堕胎法律、宗教传统、经济衰退情况以及人口结构都截然不同的国家却在同一时间段经历了类似的生育率断崖式变化。”

“Whatever caused it was something global — something that arrived in roughly the same form in all of these places at roughly the same time,” they wrote.

“因此，导致这一现象的原因很可能是一种全球性的因素——某种几乎同时以相同形式出现在世界各地的东西。”

They analyzed World Bank data measuring smartphone prevalence and teenage fertility rates in 128 countries. In countries as varied as Iran, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Chile, Mexico and Turkey, they found that teenage fertility declines accelerated once smartphones became a mass phenomenon.

他们分析了世界银行关于128个国家的智能手机普及率和青少年生育率的数据。他们发现，在伊朗、哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、智利、墨西哥和土耳其等差异巨大的国家，一旦智能手机成为一种大众现象，青少年生育率的下降就会加速。

They tested their technology theory in the United States using data on wired broadband and 4G high-speed mobile networks. They looked at where access was better and worse and found a substantial effect: that fertility rates for teenagers declined fastest in counties with more high-speed access.

他们还利用美国有线宽带网络和4G高速移动网络的数据对这一技术假说加以验证。通过比较网络接入条件优劣不同的地区，结果发现了显著影响：高速网络接入更为普及的县域，青少年生育率下降最为迅速。

Theodore Joyce, an economist at Baruch College, said he was skeptical of both studies. Teenage births have been falling since the 1990s, he said, long before technology came on the scene. Professor Myers’s paper, he said, examined a short period before smartphones had fully taken hold.

巴鲁克学院经济学家西奥多·乔伊斯表示，他对两项研究均持怀疑态度。他指出，青少年生育率自1990年代起便已持续走低，远早于智能手机时代的到来。他还说，迈尔斯教授的论文所考察的时间段较短，当时智能手机尚未全面普及。

The hypothesis, he said, could be correct but “remains speculative.”

他说，这种假说或许是正确的，但“目前仍然属于推测”。

President Trump has defined his career in politics with displays of dominance and control. But in the Middle East, he faces a rolling crisis that keeps thwarting those impulses.

特朗普总统的政治生涯一直以展现主导权和控制力为标志。但在中东，他正面临一场持续发酵的危机，不断挫败他的这些冲动。

On Sunday, Mr. Trump lashed out at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling The Financial Times that the Israeli leader “won’t have any choice” but to accept a U.S.-negotiated deal with Iran. “I call all the shots,” he said. But early Monday, Mr. Trump was still trying to rein in Mr. Netanyahu, writing on social media just after 5:30 a.m.: “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting.’”

周日，特朗普猛烈抨击了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，他在接受《金融时报》采访时表示，这位以色列领导人“别无选择”，只能接受美国与伊朗谈判达成的协议。“一切由我说了算，”他说。但到了周一凌晨，特朗普仍在试图约束内塔尼亚胡，早上5点30分刚过时，他在社交媒体上写道：“以色列和伊朗必须立即停止‘交火’。”

One hundred days after starting the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran on Feb. 28, Mr. Trump is grappling with his own version of the sort of Middle East military quagmire that beset his predecessors — and that he promised to avoid. (On Sunday, Mr. Trump tried to deny that he had ever made such a pledge, telling NBC News that “I don’t like these endless wars” but also that “this is not an endless war.”)

距离2月28日美以打响对伊战争已经一百天，特朗普正努力应对属于他自己的中东军事泥潭，这样的泥潭曾经困扰他的多位前任，而他曾承诺要避免。（周日，特朗普试图否认自己曾经做过此类承诺，他告诉NBC新闻：“我不喜欢这些无休止的战争”，但同时又说，“这不是一场无休止的战争”。）

He won a tactical reprieve on Monday when Iran and Israel both said they would hold their fire after their first strikes on each other since April. But the fundamental deadlock remains, as Iran hawks in Washington warn that the president faces a strategic defeat and as polls show broad disapproval of the war as the midterms approach.

周一，伊朗和以色列均表示，在4月以来首次相互打击后，将暂停交火，特朗普随之赢得战术上的喘息之机。但根本性的僵局依然存在，华盛顿的对伊强硬派警告称总统正面临战略性失败，而且随着中期选举的临近，民调显示公众普遍反对这场战争。

“Trump launched a war of choice overestimating America’s military capacity and underestimating Iran’s,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official who is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That is a box that Trump cannot get out of right now.”

“特朗普发动了一场自己选择的战争，他高估了美国的军事实力，低估了伊朗的实力，”卡内基国际和平研究院高级研究员、前美国国务院官员亚伦·戴维·米勒说。“这是特朗普目前无法脱身的困局。”

周一摄于德黑兰。美国针对伊朗船只实施的反封锁措施未能解决伊朗事实上封锁霍尔木兹海峡的问题。

That box includes Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. counter-blockade on Iranian ships has been unable to resolve. There is also Mr. Trump’s demand for wide-ranging concessions by Iran on its nuclear program, which Tehran is resisting.

这一困局包括伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的实质性封锁，而美国对伊朗船只的反封锁未能解决这一问题。此外，特朗普要求伊朗在其核项目上做出广泛让步，这也遭到了德黑兰的抵制。

“I worry that the president’s going to codify a bad deal,” said Brad Bowman, a former U.S. Army officer and senior military expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that takes a hawkish line on Iran.

“我担心总统会敲定一个糟糕的协议，”前美国陆军军官、华盛顿对伊强硬派智库保卫民主基金会的高级军事专家布拉德·鲍曼说。

Mr. Trump has let his frustration show. He complained on social media last week that critics were “chirping” that he should “move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever.” He said they should “sit back and relax” because “it will all work out well in the end — It always does!”

特朗普已显露出挫败感。上周他在社交媒体上抱怨说，批评者们一直在“喋喋不休”地议论他应该“行动快点，或者慢点，或者开战，或者不开战，或者随便什么”。他说他们应该“坐下来放松一下”，因为“最终一切都会好起来的——总是这样的！”

On Sunday, Mr. Trump insisted that he had not violated his campaign pledge to avoid “endless wars” even though a conflict he called “a little excursion” in March had entered its fourth month.

周日，特朗普坚称他没有违背自己关于避免“无休止战争”的竞选承诺，尽管他今年3月曾称之为“小规模行动”的冲突已进入第四个月。

“Look at Iraq. You were there for years,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with Kristen Welker of NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We’re there for a few months. And the threat is largely over. Soon, it will be over.”

“看看伊拉克。你们在那里待了多少年，”特朗普在接受NBC《与媒体见面》节目克里斯汀·韦尔克采访时说。“我们只在那里待了几个月。威胁基本上已经结束了。很快，它就会结束。”

But unlike Iraq, where U.S. ground forces toppled Saddam Hussein’s government within weeks before eventually getting bogged down in a yearslong insurgency, the Iran war has stood out for how quickly it has revealed the limits of what American firepower can accomplish. Mr. Bowman said that if the war left the Iranian leadership “angry and still armed,” with newfound influence over the Strait of Hormuz, “then I’d say that is a negative outcome for the United States.”

但与伊拉克不同——在伊拉克，美国地面部队在几周内推翻了萨达姆·侯赛因政府，随后最终陷入了长达数年的叛乱泥潭——而对伊朗的战争之所以引人注目，是因为它迅速暴露了美国火力所能达到的极限。鲍曼表示，如果这场战争让伊朗领导层“感到愤怒且依然武装”，并对霍尔木兹海峡获得了新的影响力，“那么我会说，这对美国来说是一个负面结果。”

“The United States has demonstrated that it has the pre-eminent military in the world, but that that military power also has limitations,” Mr. Bowman said. “I do worry that this administration underestimated the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

“美国已经证明自己拥有世界上最卓越的军队，但这种军事力量也有局限性，”鲍曼说。“我确实担心本届政府低估了伊朗伊斯兰共和国。”

Mr. Bowman said that a sharp escalation of the war by the United States would also be problematic, and that the depletion of U.S. munitions stocks had harmed America’s military posture in Europe and Asia. But he acknowledged that his preferred route of heightening the economic and political pressure on Iran would be difficult to maintain for Mr. Trump, given Iran’s ability to keep gasoline prices high with its grip on the strait.

鲍曼表示，美国若大幅升级战争同样会带来问题，而且美国弹药储备的消耗已经损害了美国在欧洲和亚洲的军事态势。他主张加大对伊朗经济和政治压力，但他也承认，这一路线对特朗普来说是很难维持的，因为伊朗有能力凭借其对海峡的控制权来维持高油价。

Deepening Mr. Trump’s struggle to control the course of the war is his mercurial relationship with Mr. Netanyahu, who has angered the U.S. president with fierce strikes in Lebanon in his fight against Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned militant group there. Mr. Trump acknowledged last week that he had held a profanity-laced call with Mr. Netanyahu, explaining that “I was a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon.”

令特朗普控制战争进程更加困难的是他与内塔尼亚胡之间反复无常的关系。内塔尼亚胡在打击与伊朗结盟的武装组织黎巴嫩真主党过程中对黎巴嫩发动了猛烈空袭，这激怒了美国总统。特朗普上周承认，他曾与内塔尼亚胡进行过一次夹带粗话的通话，并解释说：“他对黎巴嫩的持续军事行动让我有些恼火。”

Mr. Miller, who specialized in the Middle East at the State Department, described Mr. Trump as largely successful in establishing leverage over Mr. Netanyahu. The perceived support of Mr. Trump is critical to Mr. Netanyahu’s political survival in Israel, Mr. Miller said. Mr. Trump could well bring more pressure to bear on Mr. Netanyahu if it is necessary to secure an agreement with Iran, he predicted.

曾任国务院中东事务专家的米勒认为，特朗普在对内塔尼亚胡施加影响力方面总体上相当成功。米勒说，外界眼中特朗普的支持对于内塔尼亚胡在以色列的政治生存至关重要。他预测，如果有必要确保与伊朗达成协议，特朗普很可能会对内塔尼亚胡施加更多压力。

But getting to that stage would require extracting more compromises from Iran. While Mr. Trump has shown he can change Israel’s calculus, Mr. Miller said, “he’s not yet demonstrated that he can change Tehran’s. That is his big problem.”

但要达到那个阶段，就需要迫使伊朗做出更多让步。米勒说，虽然特朗普已经表明他可以改变以色列的战略考量，“但他还没有证明自己能够改变德黑兰的考量。这是他的一大难题。”