Members of the Trump administration have some big shoes to fill: Their own.

特朗普政府的一众官员眼下的大任务，居然是穿好自己的大鞋子。

In recent months, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy have all been photographed wearing shoes that look a half-size or so too large for them. A gap as wide as a finger sits between the back of the shoe and their socked heels.

近几个月，国务卿鲁比奥、副总统万斯，以及交通部长肖恩·达菲都被拍到穿着比自己脚码大了半号左右的鞋子。鞋后跟和穿着袜子的脚跟之间的空隙甚至能塞进一根手指。

The tale of the administration’s too-big shoes began when President Trump told The New York Times in January that he had recently purchased four new pairs for both Mr. Rubio and Mr. Vance (whom he referred to as “kids”).

这场政府官员“大鞋风波”的缘起，是特朗普总统今年1月接受《纽约时报》采访时透露，他最近刚给鲁比奥和万斯（他称两人是“孩子们”）各买了四双新鞋。

“I never like cabinet members walking in sneakers,” Mr. Trump said on the Fox commentator Brian Kilmeade’s radio show last week. “Sneakers are wonderful, but I don’t want my cabinet members wearing sneakers, so I’ll get them a pair of shoes. It’s a gift from Donald Trump.”

“我向来不喜欢内阁成员穿运动鞋出门，”特朗普上周在福克斯新闻评论员布莱恩·基尔米德的广播节目中说。“运动鞋当然很好，但我不希望我的内阁成员穿运动鞋，所以我给他们买了正装鞋。这是唐纳德·特朗普的礼物。”

He added, “Now they look all spiffy and nice.”

他还说：“现在他们看起来个个精神利落、体面得很。”

A representative for Florsheim, a Wisconsin-based dress shoe company, confirmed to The Times that a White House assistant had placed orders and that the shoes had been shipped to an address in Fairfax, Va. Dozens of pairs were delivered to this address, according to the company. Florsheim’s standard cap-toe dress shoes sell for $145. They are not made in America.

总部位于威斯康星州的正装鞋品牌富乐绅(Florsheim)的发言人向《纽约时报》证实，白宫一名助理曾下单采购，鞋子被寄往弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯市的一个地址。该公司称，有数十双鞋被送到了这个地址。富乐绅经典款包头正装鞋售价145美元，并非美国本土生产。

During a December speech, filmed by the right-wing pundit Benny Johnson, Mr. Vance recounted how, during a meeting in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump went around the room asking everyone for shoe sizes so he could buy them new shoes: Mr. Rubio was an 11.5, Mr. Vance a 13. According to Mr. Vance, the president then asked a third unnamed politician in the room, who shared that he was a size 7, to which Mr. Trump said: “You know you can tell a lot about a man by his shoe size.”

去年12月，在由右翼评论员本尼·约翰逊拍摄的一次演讲中，万斯讲了这样一件事：在椭圆形办公室的会上，特朗普挨个询问在场所有人的鞋码，说要给他们买新鞋。鲁比奥穿11.5码，万斯是13码。万斯说，总统随后问了在场另一位政界人士（万斯没有透露他的姓名），此人说自己穿七码的鞋，特朗普当即回应：“你们知道吗，看一个人的鞋码，能看出太多东西了。”

But Mr. Trump seemed not to aim for precision in his gifting. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Mr. Trump often guessed a person’s size.

但特朗普送礼时，似乎并不追求尺码精准。《华尔街日报》上周报道称，特朗普常常靠猜测给人选鞋码。

Men’s shoe specialists were not at all surprised that the president appeared to be guessing too big. Men, they said, often buy the wrong size when buying their own shoes. And they almost always estimate too large.

男鞋专家对总统似乎总会选大尺码的行为一点都不意外。他们说，男性就算给自己买鞋，也常常买错码，而且几乎总是往大了买。

特朗普总统曾公开表示，他为内阁成员购买过鞋子，其中包括鲁比奥和副总统万斯。

“It definitely starts with, ‘I’m the big man, I wear the bigger shoe,’” said Kevin Wright, the operations manager at Brick + Mortar, a specialty shoe shop in Seattle. Men tend to seize on the largest size they ever were at any point. If a man wore a size 11 athletic cleat in high school, he’ll forever be convinced he’s an 11, not the 10 he truly needs in a dress shoe.

“这本质上就是一种心态：‘我是大男人，就得穿大鞋。’”西雅图精品鞋店Brick + Mortar的运营经理凯文·赖特说。男性总执着于自己人生中穿过的最大鞋码：如果一个男人高中时穿11码的运动钉鞋，那他这辈子都会坚信自己穿11码，却不知道穿正装鞋时他其实只需要穿10码。

“It’s a macho thing,” agreed Sean Moran, the owner of Dashing, a high-end shoe store in Chicago. “It’s still based on that whole your-shoe-size-is-your-package-size thing.”

芝加哥高端鞋店Dashing的店主肖恩·莫兰对此表示认同：“这就是大男子主义作祟。说到底，还是脱不开‘鞋码代表那话儿尺寸’的坊间说法。”

Mr. Moran’s clients are footwear obsessives — his shop is the sort of place that charges $25 just to properly measure your foot — but he did recall a customer several years ago who requested a size 9 when he was in fact a 6. “I’m like, It’s $1,400, you’re buying the wrong size,” he said, but when the man looked at his proper, smaller shoe, he replied, “No, I just can’t wear these.”

莫兰的客户都是鞋履爱好者——他的店光是精准量脚就要收25美元——但他还记得，几年前，有位顾客明明脚是六码的尺寸，却非要买九码的鞋。“我跟他说，这鞋要1400美元，你买错码了，”他说，可当这位顾客看到合脚的小码鞋时，却直接回应：“不行，这个我是真穿不下。”

Mostly, though, shoe sellers felt that men bought the wrong size shoe just because they didn’t know any better.

不过，鞋商们大多认为，男性买错鞋码，更多只是因为根本不懂怎么选码。

“The prevalence of sneakers and casual shoes distorted the sizing of dress shoes,” said Young Yoo, who owns Gentlemen’s Footwear in San Diego. “Men were measured once like 10 years ago and then they get fixated on that number.” That number might work for sneakers, which have pliable padding all around. In Mr. Yoo’s experience, a man’s sneaker size is nearly always larger: If a customer is a 10 in Nike, he’ll more likely be a 9.5 in some American-made Alden dress shoes.

圣地亚哥绅士鞋履店的店主柳荣（音）说：“运动鞋和休闲鞋的普及把正装鞋的尺码体系彻底打乱了。男人可能在10年前量过一次脚，就死死认准那个数字了。”那个鞋码或许适合运动鞋，毕竟运动鞋四周都有柔软的填充物。根据柳荣的经验，男性的运动鞋码几乎总是偏大：如果一个顾客穿耐克是10码，他穿美国本土品牌奥尔登的正装鞋时，大概率是9.5码。

It’s expected, Mr. Yoo said, for there to be some open space in a shoe, but the gaps visible in photos of the cabinet members were “ridiculously too much,” he said.

柳荣说，鞋子里留一点空隙是正常的，但内阁成员照片里可见的空隙“大得离谱，”他说。

Steven Taffel, the owner of Leffot, a high-end men’s shoe store in Manhattan, said that a fresh-from-the-box leather dress shoe shouldn’t squeeze, but it should “hug the foot.” Shoes, after all, are not static objects. “Your body weight gradually presses into the footbed, and leather soles become more flexible over time,” Mr. Taffel said.

曼哈顿高端男鞋店Leffot的店主史蒂文·塔菲尔说，全新的皮质正装鞋不能挤脚，但必须“贴合脚部”。毕竟鞋子不是一成不变的。“你的体重会慢慢压进鞋床，皮质鞋底穿久了也会更合脚，”塔菲尔说。

There is, he said, one relevant rule to heed: “If you can stick a finger into the heel of your shoe, it’s not just a poor fit, it’s not a very good look, either.”

他说，有一条相关的规矩必须遵守：“如果你能把一根手指塞进鞋后跟，那不光是严重不合脚，看着也非常不得体。”

“I do believe I’ll be having the honor of taking Cuba,” President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.

“我确信我将有幸拿下古巴，”总统周一在椭圆形办公室对媒体表示。

“Taking Cuba in some form, yeah,” he added when a reporter asked for clarification. “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth.”

“以某种形式拿下古巴，没错，”当一名记者要求他澄清时，他补充道。“拿下古巴。我的意思是，不管我是解放它，还是拿下它——我觉得我对它怎么做都可以，如果你想听实话的话。”

Even by Mr. Trump’s precedent-shattering standards for speaking his mind as the U.S. president, his comments were a stunning insight into his perceptions of his power and its lack of limits.

即便以特朗普作为美国总统打破先例、口无遮拦的标准来衡量，这番话依然令人震惊，清楚地展现了他对自身权力的认知以及这种权力似乎没有边界的看法。

There have been 13 U.S. presidents since Fidel Castro took power in Cuba, all with their own complicated and often contentious relationship with the Communist-ruled island. But none has so publicly pondered seizing control of the nation, until now. And after Mr. Trump’s military attacks in Venezuela and Iran this year, his comments may not simply be off-the-cuff musings.

自卡斯特罗在古巴掌权以来，美国已经历了13任总统，他们与这个由共产党统治的岛国之间的关系，各有各的复杂，且常常充满争议。但在此之前，还没有哪位总统如此公开地考虑夺取对该国的控制权。而且，在特朗普今年对委内瑞拉和伊朗发动军事打击之后，他的言论可能并非随口之言。

Instead, the remarks seem to suggest that Mr. Trump is pushing toward a third consecutive attempt to behead a foreign government, perhaps before the year finishes its first quarter.

相反，这些言论似乎表明，特朗普正推动接连第三次尝试对一个外国政府进行斩首行动，也许在今年第一季度结束之前。

“I am holding Cuba,” he said on Sunday aboard Air Force One, adding, “We will pretty soon make a deal or do whatever we have to do.” But he also made the sequencing clear: “We’re going to do Iran before Cuba.”

“我正在控制古巴，”他周日在“空军一号”上表示，并补充道，“我们很快会达成协议，或者做我们必须做的任何事情。”但他也明确了顺序：“先解决伊朗，再看古巴。”

In reality, the Trump administration is already engaging on both. Since January, the United States has established what amounts to an oil blockade on Cuba, threatening other countries if they provide oil to the island and even taking military action. Last month, a U.S. Coast Guard vessel intercepted a tanker full of crude oil from Colombia en route to Cuba.

事实上，特朗普政府已经在同时对付这两个国家了。自1月以来，美国已经对古巴实施了事实上的石油封锁，威胁其他国家不要向古巴提供石油，甚至采取了军事行动。上月，一艘美国海岸警卫队船只拦截了一艘满载原油、从哥伦比亚驶往古巴的油轮。

As a result, Cuba has not received any significant oil or fuel shipments since Jan. 9, creating a rapidly escalating crisis on the island. Gasoline sold on the black market has soared to about $35 a gallon and the electricity is failing almost every day, including a nationwide blackout on Monday. Surgeries are being delayed, medicine is running out, and food insecurity is increasing.

其结果是，自1月9日以来，古巴没有再收到任何大规模的石油或燃料供应，导致岛内危机迅速升级。黑市上的汽油价格已飙升至每加仑约35美元，几乎每天都会停电，周一甚至出现了一次全国性停电。手术被迫推迟，药品日益短缺，粮食不安全问题也在加剧。

That has backed Cuba’s leadership into a corner.

这已将古巴领导层逼入绝境。

“我确信我将有幸拿下古巴，”总统周一在椭圆形办公室对媒体表示。

President Miguel Díaz-Canel delivered a national address last week that acknowledged for the first time that Cuba was talking to the United States and would soon begin opening its economy.

古巴国家主席迪亚斯-卡内尔上周发表全国讲话，首次承认古巴正在与美国谈判，并将很快开放经济。

At the same time, the Trump administration was making clear to Cuba that Mr. Díaz-Canel must go, The Times reported on Monday. So far, the White House is not pushing for action against the Castro family, which remains in power behind the scenes. That is in line with the Trump administration’s preference for regime compliance, versus regime change, as seen in Venezuela.

与此同时，《纽约时报》周一报道称，特朗普政府也向古巴明确表示，迪亚斯-卡内尔必须下台。到目前为止，白宫尚未推动针对卡斯特罗家族的行动，该家族仍在幕后掌握权力。这与特朗普政府在委内瑞拉问题上的做法一致，即更倾向于推动政权服从，而非直接更替政权。

Russia has signaled it is prepared to back Cuba, its longtime ally, if necessary. A Kremlin spokesman said on Tuesday that Russian and Cuban officials were in close contact about the crisis.

俄罗斯已表示，如有必要，准备支持其长期盟友古巴。克里姆林宫发言人周二表示，俄古官员正就当前危机保持密切沟通。

On Monday night, Cuba’s economic czar, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, announced a series of changes to allow Cubans abroad to invest, bank and do business in Cuba, a potentially major shift in policy that the Cuban diaspora has long been seeking.

周一晚间，古巴经济主管佩雷斯-奥利瓦宣布了一系列改革措施，允许海外古巴人回国投资、办理银行业务和经商，这可能是一次重大的政策转向，也是古巴侨民长期以来的诉求。

In one sign of the pressure that Cuba is under to make such changes, Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga made the announcement over the radio. He had been scheduled to speak on television, but the power grid — which runs largely on oil — was still out. By 7 a.m. local time on Tuesday, the Cuban government said nearly 70 percent of Havana, the capital, was still without power.

从佩雷斯-奥利瓦通过广播宣布这一消息可见古巴在推动此类改革方面所面临的压力。他原定在电视上讲话，但主要依靠石油发电的电网当时仍处于瘫痪状态。截至当地时间周二早上7点，古巴政府表示，首都哈瓦那近70%的地区仍未恢复供电。

The potential of an economic reopening of Cuba is not lost on Mr. Trump. A real estate mogul with a long interest in South Florida and the Caribbean, Mr. Trump has long coveted the island.

对于古巴经济重新开放的潜力，特朗普自然看在眼里。作为一名长期关注南佛罗里达和加勒比地区的房地产大亨，特朗普一直对这个岛屿垂涎不已。

周一的哈瓦那，古巴当天发生大范围停电。

In 1998, a company he controlled secretly hired consultants to visit Cuba to explore its potential, a trip that might have violated the U.S. embargo on Cuba, according to a 2016 investigation by Newsweek. In 2011 and 2012, Trump Organization executives visited Cuba scouting for a golf course, Bloomberg reported in 2016.

根据《新闻周刊》2016年的一篇调查报道，1998年，特朗普控制的一家公司曾秘密聘请顾问前往古巴考察其潜力，这一行程可能违反了美国对古巴的禁运政策。彭博新闻社在2016年报道，2011年和2012年，特朗普集团的高管也曾前往古巴考察建设一座高尔夫球场的可能性。

While on the campaign trail in 2016, Mr. Trump repeatedly said he would like to do business there. “Cuba would be a good opportunity for investment,” he told a Miami news station that year. “I think probably the time’s not right.”

2016年竞选期间，特朗普多次表示愿意在古巴做生意。“就投资来说，古巴会是个好机会，”那一年他对迈阿密一家新闻电视台表示。“但我觉得时机可能还不成熟。”

Now he is suggesting the timing might be near. “They’re talking to us. It’s a failed nation. They have no money. They have no oil. They have no nothing,” he said in the Oval Office on Monday.

如今，他在暗示时机可能已近。“他们正在与我们谈判。那是个失败的国家。他们没有钱，他们没有石油，他们什么都没有，”他周一在椭圆形办公室表示。

Then he had another thought. “They have nice land. They have nice landscape,” he said, adding, “I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it’s a beautiful island, great weather.”

随后他又补充道：“他们有很好的土地，风景也很不错，”他还说，“我觉得古巴，就其本身而言，旅游业和其他方面，是一个美丽的岛屿，气候也很好。”

But then he revealed the geographical and meteorological limits to his knowledge. “They’re not in a hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know?” he said. That, of course, is like saying it doesn’t snow in Buffalo.

但随后他也暴露了自己在地理和气象方面的知识局限。“他们不在飓风带，这倒是挺不错的，对吧？”他说。当然，这就好比说水牛城不下雪一样。

Mr. Trump, however, already seemed to be thinking in the context of Cuba as American property: “They won’t be asking us for money for hurricanes every week.”

不过，特朗普似乎已经在把古巴当作美国的财产来考虑了：“他们不会每周都因为飓风向我们要钱。”

In the span of a month, an artificial intelligence assistant called OpenClaw has come to embody both China’s excitement and its anxiety about what A.I. can do.

短短一个月内，一款名为OpenClaw的人工智能助手既体现出中国社会对人工智能潜力的兴奋，也折射出人们对它的焦虑。

Long lines stretched across Shenzhen, China’s technology hub, as people sought help from engineers to install OpenClaw. Some local governments started offering subsidies, free computing and discounted office rent to companies that use OpenClaw to build new services. Share prices of Chinese tech companies surged as industry leaders and start-ups scrambled to offer the tool on their platforms.

在中国科技中心深圳，人们排起长队，请工程师帮忙安装OpenClaw。部分地方政府开始为使用OpenClaw开发新服务的企业提供补贴、免费算力与优惠的办公室租金。随着行业巨头与初创企业争相在平台上推出这款工具，中国科技公司股价大幅上涨。

Then, almost as quickly, the tide turned. The Chinese government warned that OpenClaw carried serious security risks. Seeking to capitalize on the software’s success, Chinese tech companies rushed to launch copycat versions of the tool.

然而，风向几乎同样迅速地发生了逆转。中国政府警告称，OpenClaw存在严重安全风险。而希望借这款软件走红获利的中国科技公司纷纷推出模仿版本。

OpenClaw’s turbulent rise — and broader interest in tools like it, known as A.I. agents — underscores how the rush into artificial intelligence is reshaping China’s tech industry. Beijing has spent billions trying to turn the country into an A.I. superpower and has identified the technology as a critical driver of economic growth.

OpenClaw跌宕起伏的崛起过程，以及市场对这类被称为AI智能体工具的广泛热情，凸显出人工智能热潮正在如何重塑中国科技行业。中国政府已投入数千亿资金，力争将本国打造为人工智能强国，并将这项技术列为经济增长的关键引擎。

OpenClaw is a freely shared tool that functions as a virtual assistant, helping users conduct research, send texts or emails, and manage their calendars. Installed directly on a user’s computer, the A.I. agent can carry out tasks on its own, such as reading and responding to messages on apps like WhatsApp or iMessage, after an initial prompt by the user. Unlike most chatbots that rely on a single company’s A.I. model, OpenClaw can run on a variety of models.

OpenClaw是一款免费开源工具，功能类似虚拟助手，可帮助用户进行信息检索、发送短信或电子邮件，管理日程。这款AI智能体直接安装在用户电脑上，在用户初步指令后，可自主执行任务，比如读取并回复WhatsApp、iMessage等应用中的消息。与大多数依赖单一公司人工智能模型的聊天机器人不同，OpenClaw可在多种模型上运行。

OpenClaw, which was released four months ago, has already vaulted into this month’s top 10 most popular projects on GitHub, an online global community for coders. It has spurred excitement about the potential of agents to use artificial intelligence to help people become more efficient in their everyday lives.

四个月前发布的OpenClaw已跻身全球开发者在线社区GitHub本月最受欢迎十大项目。它让人们对智能体利用人工智能提升日常生活效率的潜力充满期待。

This month, Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia, the American chip-making giant, added to the hype, telling an investor conference that OpenClaw was “probably the single most important release of software, you know, probably ever.”

本月，美国芯片巨头英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋更是为这股热潮推波助澜，他在一场投资者大会上称，OpenClaw“或许堪称有史以来最重要的软件发布”。

Tech companies are vying to capitalize on the excitement by launching their own agent and assistant tools. Nvidia said it planned to launch an A.I. agent platform called NemoClaw. Peter Steinberger, the engineer who developed OpenClaw, said last month that he was joining OpenAI to work on agents.

科技公司争相借势推出自家智能体与助手工具。英伟达宣布计划推出名为NemoClaw的AI智能体平台。开发出OpenClaw的工程师彼得·斯坦伯格上月表示，他已加入OpenAI，专注智能体研发。

The Chinese tech industry has also jumped on the bandwagon. Alibaba and Tencent, two of China’s biggest technology companies, said they were developing their own alternative A.I. agents.

中国科技行业也迅速跟风。中国两大科技巨头阿里巴巴与腾讯均表示，正在开发自家的AI智能体替代产品。

稀宇是一家于今年1月在香港上市的初创公司，是投资者预期将受益于OpenClaw等工具更广泛应用的企业之一。

Companies that build A.I. models and the hardware that powers them stand to gain financially from widespread use of A.I. agents, which can run continuously on a user’s device and frequently communicate with other models that charge based on usage.

打造人工智能模型及支撑其运行硬件的公司有望从AI智能体的广泛应用中获得经济收益——这类工具可在用户设备上持续运行，并频繁与其他按使用量计费的模型进行交互。

Shares of Chinese tech companies offering OpenClaw-like products have risen on investor optimism about A.I. agents, including Minimax and Zhipu, two start-ups that went public in Hong Kong this year and have released tools called MaxClaw and AutoClaw.

因投资者对AI智能体持乐观预期，推出类OpenClaw产品的中国科技公司股价上涨，其中包括今年在香港上市的两家初创公司稀宇和智谱，它们分别发布了名为MaxClaw与AutoClaw的工具。

In China, the phrase “raising a lobster,” a reference to OpenClaw’s logo, has spread online. While the government has raised concerns, the technology has been greeted by the public with more optimism than anxiety.

在中国，源自OpenClaw标志的“养龙虾”一词在网络上流传。尽管政府表达了担忧，但公众对这项技术的态度更多是乐观，而非焦虑。

“Most people view technology as a convenience, so when something new comes out, they are more willing to try it,” said Wendy Chang, a senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a think tank.

德国墨卡托中国研究所高级分析师张文怡表示：“大多数人将技术视为一种便利，所以新事物出现时，他们更愿意尝试。”

But the same trait that makes OpenClaw useful, its versatility, also creates significant security risks.

然而，让OpenClaw如此实用的多功能特性会带来重大安全风险。

In recent weeks, Chinese regulators have repeatedly warned about security vulnerabilities linked to OpenClaw, including potential leaks of personal information and errors in financial transactions.

近几周，中国监管部门多次就OpenClaw相关安全漏洞发出警告，包括可能泄露个人信息及金融交易出错。

One person in China left OpenClaw running with access to his credit card, only to find the agent had run up the card to its limit, according to Chinese media reports.

据中国媒体报道，国内有用户在允许OpenClaw连接信用卡后任其运行，结果发现该智能体把信用卡额度刷爆。

OpenClaw是一款免费共享的工具，作为虚拟助手，它可以帮助用户进行研究、发送短信或电子邮件，并管理日程。

Multiple databases that track potential security breaches associated with the tool have sprung up online.

多个追踪该工具相关安全漏洞的数据库已在网上出现。

For some Chinese entrepreneurs, the idea that an A.I. system could be directed to act on its own has spawned a new vision of the internet where A.I. agents — and not human users — perform tasks such as buying things, sending messages and connecting on social networks.

对一些中国创业者而言，人工智能系统能够自主执行指令的特性催生了一种全新的互联网愿景：未来不是由人类用户，而是由人工智能体完成购物、发送消息、社交网络互动等任务。

Felix Tao, a former Facebook and Alibaba employee and co-founder of Mindverse, a start-up in Hangzhou, launched a software-building competition last month for engineers to develop applications related to A.I. agents. Hundreds of developers signed up and created more than 150 apps, Mr. Tao said. This month, he plans to co-host another event with Zhihu, a Chinese chat forum similar to Quora.

曾任职于Facebook和阿里巴巴的陶芳波是杭州初创公司心识宇宙联合创始人。他上月发起了一场软件开发竞赛，鼓励工程师开发与AI智能体相关的应用。陶芳波表示，数百名开发者报名参赛，打造了超过150款应用。本月，他计划与类似Quora的中文问答社区知乎联合主办另一场活动。

Mr. Tao said his company had been building a product called Second Me that would use A.I. to help people manage their lives. It can send daily emails to colleagues, for example, or regular text messages to check in with relatives.

陶芳波称，其公司正在开发一款名为Second Me的产品，利用人工智能帮助人们管理生活。例如，它可以给同事发送每日邮件，或定期发短信问候亲人。

Part of the reason people have been able to build with OpenClaw so quickly is that it is open source and freely available online. Chinese developers have embraced open-source A.I. tools, whose code is publicly available, enabling anyone to examine, modify or build new programs from it.

人们能够如此快速地基于OpenClaw开发应用，部分原因在于它是开源的，可在网上免费获取。中国开发者积极接受开源人工智能工具——其代码公开，任何人都可以查看、修改或基于其开发新程序。

In the year since the Chinese start-up DeepSeek stunned the tech world by announcing a new A.I. system that spends far less on computer chips than foreign rivals, Chinese companies have released a major share of the world’s top-performing open-source A.I. systems.

自中国初创公司深度求索宣布推出芯片成本远低于国外竞品的全新人工智能系统、震惊科技界以来，这一年间，中国企业发布的全球顶尖开源人工系统已占据相当大的比例。

While leading American A.I. companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic keep their systems closed, Chinese firms have increasingly released details of their technologies publicly.

OpenAI、Anthropic等美国头部人工智能公司对自身技术保密，与此同时，中国企业却越来越多地公开技术细节。

Chinese A.I. models offer a far cheaper option for engineers looking to experiment with tools like OpenClaw, helping explain why so many Chinese A.I. companies have released similar products in recent weeks, said Graham Webster, a professor at Stanford who focuses on geopolitics and technology.

斯坦福大学研究地缘政治与科技的教授格雷厄姆·韦伯斯特表示，对希望尝试OpenClaw这类工具的工程师来说，中国人工智能模型是成本低得多的选择，这也解释了为何近几周来有如此多的中国人工智能公司推出同类产品。

Chinese regulators will also have to weigh the benefits these tools will bring to the country’s A.I. industry, because of the privacy and security risks they pose, Mr. Webster said.

韦伯斯特称，考虑到隐私与安全风险，中国监管机构也必须权衡这些工具给本国人工智能产业带来的利弊。

“It could be a moment that starts to cause the Chinese government to think about the downsides of widely available open models,” Mr. Webster said.

“这可能会成为一个转折点，让中国政府开始思考广泛可用的开源模型的负面影响，”韦伯斯特说。

Europe wants President Trump to end his war in Iran as fast as possible.

欧洲希望特朗普总统尽快结束他在伊朗的战争。

Mr. Trump wants Europe’s help relieving the only real pressure point that could force him to do that.

特朗普则希望欧洲帮忙缓解唯一能真正迫使他这么做的压力点。

That pressure point is effectively an oil blockade by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump has called on Europe to send ships and other military forces to help clear the channel.

这个压力点实际上就是伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡实施的石油封锁。特朗普呼吁欧洲派遣舰船和其他军事力量，帮助打通这条通道。

European officials have a long list of reasons, spoken and unspoken, for refusing.

欧洲官员有一长串理由来拒绝，其中有说出口的，也有没说出口的。

It looks something like this.

大致如下。

1. They never wanted this war and don’t want a part of it.

1. 他们从来就不想要这场战争，也不想参与其中。

The United States and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran late last month without consulting allies in Europe or elsewhere. There was no effort to assemble any sort of “coalition of the willing” or to make an international case for war, as the Bush administration did two decades ago with Iraq.

美国和以色列在上月底对伊朗发动首次打击时，并没有征求欧洲或其他地方盟友的意见。没有努力组建任何“自愿联盟”，也没有像二十年前布什政府那样，就伊拉克战争争取国际支持。

For the first few weeks of the war, all Mr. Trump seemed to want from Europe was the use of military bases to launch attacks. Germany agreed immediately. Britain did eventually, though not to the degree Mr. Trump wanted. Spain said no.

在战争最初几周，特朗普似乎只想从欧洲那里借用军事基地来发动攻击。德国立即同意了。英国最终也同意了，尽管没有达到特朗普想要的程度。西班牙则拒绝了。

周二，一架美国轰炸机在英格兰南部的皇家空军费尔福德基地降落。

But as Iran’s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring, Mr. Trump asked for more help from Europe — without offering operational input or a timeline for ending hostilities, international legal cover or anything else that Europe might want.

但随着伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的攻击导致油价飙升，特朗普开始向欧洲要求更多帮助——却没有提供作战行动的参与意见、结束敌对行动的时间表、国际法上的依据，或者欧洲可能想要的任何其他东西。

“The United States and Israel did not consult us before this war. There was never a joint decision regarding Iran,” Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said on Monday. “Therefore, the question of how Germany will contribute militarily does not arise. We will not.”

“美国和以色列在这场战争前没有征求我们的意见。从未就伊朗问题做出过任何联合决定，”德国总理弗里德里希·默茨周一表示。“因此，德国是否在军事上参与的问题根本无从谈起。我们不会参与。”

2. It’s not NATO’s job.

2. 这不是北约的职责。

Mr. Trump has invoked the trans-Atlantic security alliance, which requires its members to aid America if it is attacked, and scolded NATO members in Europe for not answering his call. “For 40 years, we’re protecting you, and you don’t want to get involved,” Mr. Trump said on Monday.

特朗普援引了这个跨大西洋安全联盟——该联盟要求成员国在美国遭受攻击时给予援助——并斥责欧洲北约成员国没有响应他的号召。“40年来，我们一直在保护你们，你们却不想卷进来，”特朗普周一说。

To which European officials reply: That’s not how NATO works.

对此，欧洲官员的回应是：北约不是这么用的。

The alliance does not traditionally involve itself in the Middle East or in pre-emptive strikes by its members on their enemies. Its so-called Article 5 obligations bind countries to defend one another in case of attack, and they have only been invoked once: after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist strikes in the United States.

这个联盟传统上不介入中东事务，也不参与其成员国对敌人的先发制人打击。其所谓的第五条义务要求各国在遭受攻击时相互防御，而这只被援引过一次：2001年9月11日美国遭受恐怖袭击之后。

Mr. Merz stressed on Monday that NATO was a “defensive alliance.” Mark Rutte, the alliance’s secretary general and an ally of Mr. Trump’s, told the Reuters news agency shortly after the war began: “Clearly, NATO is not itself involved here. NATO allies are providing key enabling support.”

默茨周一强调，北约是一个“防御性联盟”。北约秘书长、特朗普的盟友马克·吕特在战争开始后不久对路透社表示：“显然，北约本身并未卷入其中。北约盟国正在提供关键的支持性援助。”

3. They don’t think it will work …

3. 他们认为这行不通……

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is so precarious because even a single armed Iranian speedboat can take out an oil tanker. The U.S. Navy has not been able to defeat that threat on its own, and some European leaders said this week that they don’t know how their navies would tip the scales.

霍尔木兹海峡的航运之所以如此脆弱，是因为哪怕一艘伊朗武装快艇就能摧毁一艘油轮。美国海军至今未能依靠自己的力量击败这一威胁，一些欧洲领导人本周表示，他们不知道自家海军如何能扭转局面。

4. … and if it did, it could prolong the war.

4. ……而且即便行得通，也可能延长战争。

The Iran-induced surge in global oil prices is raising costs for drivers and other consumers across Europe and the United States. European leaders are desperate to bring them down. They know Mr. Trump is, too.

伊朗引发的全球油价飙升正在提高欧洲和美国各地司机及其他消费者的成本。欧洲领导人迫切希望把油价降下来。他们知道特朗普也同样迫切。

Privately, top European officials say the only things that ever really seem to induce Mr. Trump to change his mind on an issue are financial markets and American public opinion. A clogged Strait of Hormuz influences both. Mr. Trump does not want to enter midterm elections with gas prices high and American voters blaming his war for them.

一些欧洲高层官员私下表示，似乎只有金融市场和美国公众舆论这两样东西，才能真正让特朗普在某个问题上改变主意。霍尔木兹海峡被堵塞会同时影响到这两者。特朗普不希望带着高油价进入中期选举，让美国选民把责任归咎于他的战争。

That calculation might be European leaders’ best leverage to persuade Mr. Trump to wrap up the war before it sprawls into their nightmare scenario: an economically devastated, politically unstable Iran that sends millions of migrants fleeing the Middle East toward Europe.

这种算计或许是欧洲领导人说服特朗普尽快结束战争的最好筹码，以免战争演变成他们的噩梦场景：一个经济崩溃、政治不稳的伊朗，导致数百万难民从中东涌向欧洲。

The war in Iran is threatening a fragile détente between China and the United States, with the two powers now moving to postpone a much anticipated summit meeting after President Trump demanded that China send warships to the Gulf.

伊朗战事正威胁着中美之间本就脆弱的缓和关系。在特朗普总统要求中国向海湾派遣军舰后，两国正着手推迟一场备受期待的峰会。

Mr. Trump on Monday said that he had requested that his visit to Beijing at the end of the month be postponed because of the war. Just a day earlier, he threatened to delay the meeting if China did not contribute warships to end Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is squeezing oil markets.

特朗普周一表示，因战事原因，他已要求推迟原定本月底对北京的访问。就在一天前，他还威胁称，若中国不派遣军舰以解除伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的事实上的封锁，他将推迟会晤——这一封锁正严重冲击全球石油市场。

“I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here,” Mr. Trump said of meeting China’s leader, Xi Jinping. “I’m looking forward to being with him. We have a very good relationship.”

谈及与中国国家主席习近平的会晤，特朗普称：“我很想去，但因为战事，我想留在这里。我期待和他会面，我们关系非常好。”

In a sign the relationship may not be as warm as Mr. Trump says, Chinese officials have reacted coolly to the president’s call for nations to escort merchant vessels through the strait. When asked on Monday about the president’s proposal, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said only that his country called on “all parties to immediately cease military operations.”

不过，中国官方对特朗普呼吁各国为商船护航穿越海峡的提议反应冷淡，这表明两国关系可能并不像特朗普所说的那样融洽。周一被问及总统的这一提议时，中国外交部发言人林剑仅表示，中方呼吁“各方立即停止军事行动”。

Outside of official circles, Mr. Trump’s demand has been met with outright ridicule in China.

在官方层面之外，特朗普的要求在中国民间遭到了毫不掩饰的嘲讽。

One prominent Chinese blogger said the request was so absurd that the U.S. president might as well as invite Iranian warships to escort U.S. vessels. The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, on Sunday asked, “Is this really about ‘sharing responsibility — or is it about sharing the risk of a war that Washington started and can’t finish?”

一位知名中国博主称，这一要求荒谬至极，特朗普还不如干脆邀请伊朗军舰为美国船只护航。中国共产党旗下小报《环球时报》周日质问道：“这真的是‘分担责任’？——还是要分担华盛顿挑动却无力收场的战争风险？”

Other Chinese news outlets, describing the lack of response by other nations, said Mr. Trump had received “a nose full of dust,” or a cold shoulder.

其他中国媒体在报道多国对此无回应时，称特朗普“碰了一鼻子灰”，也就是遭到了冷遇。

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平去年10月在韩国釜山会晤。

Beijing has little incentive to risk Chinese personnel and ships or undermine ties with Iran, its closest partner in the region. Iran has said it is only targeting vessels linked to the United States and its allies, and is allowing ships carrying oil to China to cross the strait.

北京几乎没有动力让中国人员和船只涉险，也不愿破坏与它在该地区最亲密伙伴伊朗之间的关系。伊朗已表示，仅针对与美国及其盟友有关的船只，允许载有运往中国石油的船只通过海峡。

“This is not a difficult question to answer. Regardless of whether Trump comes or not, China will absolutely not send warships to participate in an escort operation,” said Ding Long from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.

上海外国语大学中东研究所的丁隆表示：“这个问题不难回答。无论特朗普来不来，中国绝对不会派军舰参与护航行动。”

Dr. Ding said that sending Chinese naval ships would be “tantamount to entering the war and joining the conflict against Iran” — something China is unwilling to do.

丁隆称，派遣中国海军舰艇“无异于参战，加入对抗伊朗的冲突”——这是中国不愿做的事。

For Mr. Xi, who is working to cement Beijing’s position as a superpower and global leader, contributing Chinese warships would mean submitting to U.S. leadership.

对正致力于巩固中国超级大国与全球领导者地位的习近平而言，派遣军舰意味着屈从于美国的领导。

“From Beijing’s perspective, this is an American war rather than China’s problem,” said Claus Soong, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies who focuses on China’s global strategy. Responding to Mr. Trump’s call to send naval forces would make it look as if “China is following his order,” he said.

德国墨卡托中国研究中心专注于中国全球战略的分析师宋高祖表示：“在北京看来，这是美国的战争，而非中国的问题。”他称，响应特朗普派遣海军的号召，会让外界觉得“中国在听命于他”。

But not responding at all may jeopardize a trade truce between China and the United States. Beijing has been counting on the summit to lower pressure on China as it tries to overhaul a slowing economy. Beijing wants Washington to reduce support for Taiwan, ease restrictions on technology exports, and extend a pause on tariffs struck last year after months of a bruising trade war.

但完全不回应则可能危及中美之间的贸易休战。中国正指望此次峰会能减轻中国面临的压力，以便其振兴放缓的经济，中国希望华盛顿减少对台支持、放宽技术出口限制，并延长去年历经数月激烈贸易战后达成的关税暂停协议。

And while China has invested in renewables and electric vehicles to reduce reliance on oil and other foreign energy sources — as well as stockpiling oil before the U.S. and Israel opened their war on Iran — the country is still affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped through the waterway.

尽管中国已投资可再生能源与电动汽车以减少对石油等外国能源的依赖，并在美以对伊朗开战前储备了石油，但霍尔木兹海峡的封锁仍对中国造成影响。中国高达40%的石油进口需经该水道运输。

上周，一艘原油油轮停泊在中国青岛的港口。

Shipping data since the beginning of the war shows that few Chinese vessels are risking the journey, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. As of Tuesday, at least nine Chinese carriers appeared to be stuck in the Gulf, according to Marine Traffic, a maritime data platform.

美国战略与国际研究中心的分析显示，战事爆发以来的航运数据表明，鲜有中国船只冒险通行。海事数据平台“船舶交通”数据显示，截至周二，至少有九艘中国货轮似乎滞留在海湾地区。

“Everyone benefits from the reopening of the strait,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who said that Beijing may try to mediate or quietly pressure Iran to reopen the strait.

华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示：“海峡重开对各方都有利。”她认为，北京或许会尝试从中斡旋，或私下向伊朗施压以重开海峡。

Doing more to push for the reopening would help Beijing build good will with Washington before the summit, burnish its image as a responsible great power and help China’s partners in the Gulf, she said.

她称，在峰会前更积极推动海峡重开，有助于北京向华盛顿释放善意，塑造负责任大国形象，也能惠及中国在海湾地区的伙伴。

“China just can’t push Iran with one-sided pressure,” Dr. Sun said, adding that Beijing would likely also privately urge the United States and Israel to declare a cease-fire.

孙韵表示：“中国不能仅靠单方面施压来推动伊朗。”她补充说，北京可能还会私下敦促美国和以色列宣布停火。

A delay of the summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi could be in China’s interests, too. If the war drags on, added pressure on Washington could mean more leverage for China.

推迟特朗普与习近平的峰会对中国或许也有利。若战事持续，华盛顿面临的压力增加，可能意味着中国将拥有更多筹码。

“Both Beijing and Washington have expectations for the summit, but it may be that Trump needs the meeting more as a way to demonstrate that he can make a deal,” Mr. Soong said.

宋高祖称：“中美双方都对这场峰会抱有期待，但或许特朗普更需要这场会晤，以此证明他有能力达成协议。”

Digging deep into a field in northwestern China, archaeologists recently uncovered chariot tracks, plumbing and the remnants of an elaborate city gate dating back more than 3,000 years — all traces of an early Chinese dynasty that has been celebrated by Confucian scholars, and also by the Communist Party, as a model of political and social harmony.

考古学家最近在中国西北的一片田地里进行考古发掘时，发现了战车车辙、管道设施以及一座3000多年前建造的精巧城门的遗迹——这些都是一个早期中国朝代留下的痕迹，该朝代长期以来一直被儒家学者以及共产党赞誉为政治与社会和谐的典范。

The discoveries suggest that the area that is now farmland west of the city of Xi’an, in Shaanxi Province, is part of the long-vanished capital of the Western Zhou, a dynasty exalted throughout Chinese history as the acme of good governance.

这些发现表明，位于今天陕西省西安市以西的一片农田，正是早已消失的西周都城的一部分。西周在中国历史上一直被推崇为善治的巅峰。

The digging, part of decades-long excavation work in the area, has also shed new light on a bigger question: If the ancient dynasty was so perfect, why did it collapse in chaos, unable to contain external and internal threats? It lasted nearly 300 years but still fell apart in 771 B.C. under pressure from “barbarian” invaders and estranged former allies.

这项发掘是当地持续数十年的考古工作的一部分，也为一个更大的问题提供了新的线索：如果这个古代王朝如此完美，为什么最终却在混乱中崩溃，既无法抵御外部威胁，也无法化解内部危机？它延续了近300年，却仍在公元前771年面对“蛮族”入侵者和关系疏远的前盟友的压力时瓦解了。

Why seemingly robust political systems crumble has been a central preoccupation of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, since the 1991 downfall of the Soviet Union. An avid fan of ancient history and archaeology, he visited a museum in Baoji, a city in Shaanxi near the excavation site, in 2024 and inspected ancient bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty, including one inscribed with “zhongguo,” meaning “middle kingdom,” the earliest known written record of China’s name.

自1991年苏联解体以来，看似稳固的政治体系为何会崩塌一直是中国最高领导人习近平关注的核心问题之一。习近平对于古代历史和考古研究有着浓厚的兴趣，2024年他曾到陕西宝鸡的一座博物馆参观，看了西周时期的青铜器，其中一件刻有“中国”（“中央之国”之意）字样的器物，是目前已知最早以文字形式出现“中国”字样的记录。

陕西周原博物馆展出的西周青铜器，该馆位于考古发掘地点附近。

The traditional explanation for the downfall of the Western Zhou, enshrined in the first century B.C. by Sima Qian, the father of Chinese history, is that the dynasty unraveled because of a beautiful woman who bewitched and led astray its ruler, King You.

关于西周灭亡的传统解释来自公元前1世纪的史学家、被称为中国史学之父司马迁所记载的说法：王朝之所以走向崩溃，是因为一位美貌女子蛊惑并带坏了统治者周幽王。

Recent archaeological and other evidence, however, has debunked this reading of dynastic decline as a morality play. Instead, the new findings highlight the frailties of a rigidly hierarchical political system grown brittle over time that could not withstand disruptions caused by climate change and internal division.

然而，近年来的考古发现和其他证据已经否定了这种把王朝衰亡解释为道德故事的说法。相反，新的研究凸显出：一个等级森严的政治体系随着时间推移变得僵化脆弱，最终难以承受气候变化和内部分裂带来的冲击。

Chong Jianrong, the director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, who has been hunting traces of Western Zhou’s rise and fall for decades, said the woman often blamed for the dynasty’s demise — a concubine named Bao Si — was “just a scapegoat” to explain the ruin of a supposedly golden age.

陕西省考古研究院院长种建荣几十年来一直在追寻西周兴衰的遗迹。他表示，那位常被指责导致王朝覆灭的女子——名叫褒姒的妃子——不过是用来解释一个所谓黄金时代覆灭的“替罪羊”。

Edward L. Shaughnessy, a leading American authority on ancient China, said Bao Si’s role in the end of the dynasty “is of course just a fairy tale,” possibly concocted as part of “some sort of factional strife at the Zhou court.”

美国研究中国上古史的权威学者夏含夷(Edward L. Shaughnessy)表示，褒姒在王朝终结中的作用“当然只是一个神话传说”，可能是为配合“周朝宫廷的某种派系斗争”而编造的。

Hailed by Confucius and his followers as a model undone by lust, the dynasty produced many of the core concepts of Chinese civilization, like the “mandate of heaven,” the idea that a ruler holds power because of good governance and loses it through immoral misbehavior.

西周被孔子及其追随者称为红颜误国的典型，这个王朝产生了中国文明许多核心概念，比如“天命”思想——统治者因治国贤明而掌权，也会因失德而失权。

But, Mr. Chong said of the fall of Western Zhou, “this is not about a beautiful woman causing trouble.”

但种建荣谈到西周灭亡时说：“这并不是一个美人祸国的故事。”

A recent study led by Chinese scientists in Beijing has now provided what many historians see as a more plausible theory. Using evidence collected from stalagmites, it blamed rapid climate change. Drought and unusual cold caused by a sudden change in the climate 2,800 years ago — just before the collapse of Western Zhou — played a “critical role” in the dynasty’s demise, according to a study published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister publication to the British scientific journal Nature.

现在，北京的中国科学家主持的一项新研究提供了许多史学家认为更为可信的解释。该研究利用从石笋中收集的证据，将西周的灭亡归咎于气候的急剧变化。根据发表在英国科学期刊《自然》的姊妹刊《通讯-地球与环境》上的研究，2800年前——也就是西周灭亡前夕——气候突变引发的干旱和异常寒冷对该王朝的覆灭起到了“关键作用”。

A separate study based on the analysis of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, which provided a chronology of volcanic activity over two millenniums, found that 62 of 68 Chinese dynastic houses over that period fell after one or more volcanic eruptions — a major cause of short-term climatic shocks throughout history.

另一项基于对格陵兰岛和南极洲冰芯分析的研究建立了两千年火山活动的时间序列。结果发现，在这一时间段的68个中国王朝中，有62个是在一次或多次火山喷发之后灭亡的，而火山喷发在历史上往往是短期气候冲击的重要原因

陕西省考古研究院党委书记、院长种建荣在西安的办公室。

Francis Ludlow, an associate professor of medieval environment history at Trinity College, Dublin, who carried out the research with Chinese and other scholars, said in a telephone interview that he had been surprised by the close correlation between volcanic activity and dynastic decline. “There were way too many eruptions just before collapse dates to be just random coincidences,” he said.

都柏林圣三一学院中世纪环境史副教授弗朗西斯·卢德洛与来自中国及其他国家的学者共同开展了这项研究。他在接受电话采访时表示，他对火山活动与王朝衰亡之间的紧密关联感到惊讶。“灭亡前夕发生的火山喷发多得离谱，绝不可能是随机巧合，”他说。

Professor Shaughnessy said he had long believed that climatic events before Western Zhou collapsed “probably contributed to the fall, but there were many other reasons for it as well.”

夏含夷表示，他一直认为西周灭亡之前的气候事件“可能促成了其灭亡，但此外也还存在其它诸多原因”。

Volcanoes spew out aerosol particles that cut sunlight and can play havoc with farming thousands of miles away. Whether an eruption “tips a dynasty over the edge,” however, depends heavily on the extent at the time of warfare and instability, Mr. Ludlow said.

火山喷发出的气溶胶粒子能够遮挡阳光，对数千公里外的农业生产造成严重影响。不过拉德洛表示，一场火山喷发“是否能导致一个王朝覆灭”，在很大程度上取决于当时的战争和国家不稳定程度。

“Our most interesting finding,” he said, “is not that volcanoes are implicated in dynastic change but that the impact of climatic shock depends on how stable a society was in the lead up to that shock.”

“我们最有趣的发现，”他说，“不是火山喷发导致了王朝更迭，而是在于，气候冲击的影响取决于社会在该冲击发生之前的稳定程度。”

Mr. Chong, the archaeology institute director, also said that Western Zhou’s own “internal and external contradictions” were key to its downfall.

考古研究院的种建荣也表示，西周自身的“内部和外部矛盾”是其衰亡的关键。

These included a steady weakening of the royal court’s control over regional rulers as ties of blood to the center were diluted by time, and also a growing conflict with rival “barbarian” powers to the northwest and southeast.

这些矛盾包括：随着与中央政权的血缘关系随时间推移而淡化，王庭对地方诸侯的控制逐渐减弱；以及与西北和东南方向的敌对“蛮夷”势力的冲突日益加剧。

For centuries, Chinese scholars have struggled to square the Western Zhou’s sudden collapse with the glowing praise heaped upon it by Confucius. “If the Western Zhou dynasty was so perfect an age of good politics and institutions as Confucius tended to suggest, then why had it to fall, and to give rise to a time of political disorder and moral decline?” asked Li Feng, a professor of early Chinese history at Columbia University, in a 2006 book.

几个世纪以来，中国学者一直难以将西周的突然灭亡与孔子对它的极力称赞联系起来。“如果西周真的像孔子说的那样，是一个政治制度和道德都完美无缺的时代，那它为什么还会灭亡，并导致随后的政治动乱和道德沦丧？”哥伦比亚大学早期中国历史教授李峰在2006年出版的一本书中问道。

Yan Yongqian, a young archaeologist who is part of a team now digging up what is believed to be a side gate to the Western Zhou capital, said the excavation work had revealed evidence of the dynasty’s highly stratified and sophisticated society, as well as its darker side, including human sacrifices.

年轻考古学家严镛谦（音）目前正在参与据信为西周都城侧门的遗址发掘工作，他说，考古发现证明西周王朝拥有层次高度分化且复杂精巧的社会，同时也让人们看到了它阴暗的一面，包括人祭的存在。

The collapse of the Western Zhou, Mr. Yan said, seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside against defenses weakened by internal discord. An earlier round of excavation uncovered the remains of burned ancient buildings, suggesting a violent end.

严镛谦说，西周的覆灭似乎发生得很迅速，内部分歧导致王朝防御能力减弱，外部的军事进攻加速了它的覆灭。早前的一轮挖掘发现了古代建筑的焦土遗迹，表明王朝有一个残酷的结局。

“The fall of this state was likely a very sudden event,” Mr. Yan said. Whether Bao Si, the beautiful consort, who, according to ancient legend, was conceived from dragon spittle, existed is unclear and even if she did, he added, “a single person cannot destroy a dynasty.”

“这个王国的覆灭很可能是非常突然的，”严镛谦说。关于美丽的妃子褒姒——传说她是由龙的唾液化生而成——是否真的存在还不清楚，他接着说，即使确有其人，“一个人也不能摧毁一个王朝。”

陕西考古研究院的研究人员严镛谦在他的城门遗址发掘现场。

Since Sima Qian wrote “Historical Records,” each new Chinese dynasty has traditionally commissioned an official history of its predecessor, enumerating supposed moral and other failings that led to its demise.

自从司马迁写下《史记》以来，中国的新王朝通常都会下令编撰前朝的官方史书，列举其所谓道德及其他方面的过失，称其导致了王朝的覆灭。

Though widely dismissed by modern scholars as fairy tales, stories about the Western Zhou king’s dynasty-destroying infatuation with Bao Si still sometimes crowd out other explanations. At a museum near the excavation site showcasing Western Zhou’s cultural achievements and its sudden demise, exhibits recount how the king grappled with natural disasters and other problems but lost power largely because of his wayward love life.

虽然现代学者普遍认为西周君主因迷恋褒姒而亡国的故事是神话，但有些时候，人们仍然想不出其他的解释。在考古现场附近的一家介绍西周文化成就及其突然覆灭的博物馆里，展览讲述了君主如何应对自然灾害和其他问题，但最终还是因为放纵情爱而失去权力的故事。

To entertain Bao Si, who was famous for her great but unsmiling beauty, the story goes, he lit beacon fires that were supposed to be used to summon help in times of emergency, a stunt that cost him his life and kingdom when a real attack came in 771 B.C.

传说中，为了博褒姒一笑，他点燃了只有在危急时刻才能用来召唤援军的烽火。这个把戏最终让他丢了性命和王国——前771年，外敌真的打了进来。

Whether such beacons even existed, however, is disputed and Mr. Yan, the archaeologist, said the story had probably been fabricated to demonize Bao Si and cover up the dynasty’s real problems.

然而，当时究竟有没有烽火台是存在争议的，考古学家严镛谦说，这个故事很可能是为了妖魔化褒姒，掩盖王朝真正的问题。

Mr. Chong, the Shaanxi province archaeology institute director, said: “When things go wrong you have to find someone to take responsibility,” and, in China’s patriarchal society, that person “is always a woman.” He added, “The real collapse of a society is caused by the system and its mechanisms.”

陕西省考古研究院院长种建荣说：“出问题的时候，你必须找到人来承担责任，”在中国以男性为中心的社会，这个人“总会是一个女人”。他接着说，“一个社会真正的崩溃是由制度及其机制造成的。”

President Trump raised the possibility of the United States “taking” Cuba on Monday, telling reporters at the White House, “I do believe I will be having the honor of taking Cuba.”

特朗普总统周一提及美国“拿下”古巴的可能性，他在白宫对记者表示：“我确信我会有幸拿下古巴。”

“Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it,” he said. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

“拿下古巴。我的意思是，不管是解放它，还是接管它。我觉得我想对它做什么都可以，”他说。“他们现在是一个非常虚弱的国家。”

The president’s words came on the same day as Cuba experienced a nationwide blackout, amid diminishing fuel supplies. On Monday evening, Cuban officials had also planned to announce that the country’s Communist government would open itself to foreign investment, including from the United States, Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, told NBC News.

总统发表此番言论的同一天，古巴因燃料供应告急，发生了全国性停电。古巴副总理奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加向NBC新闻透露，古巴官员原计划于周一晚间宣布，该国共产党政府将向包括美国在内的外资开放市场。

“Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants,” the deputy prime minister said in a clip of an interview posted by the network on Monday morning.

“古巴愿意与美国企业、旅居美国的古巴侨民及其后代建立顺畅的商业关系，”副总理在该新闻台周一早间发布的采访片段中表示。

It is unclear how widely Cuba intends to open its economy, or how the moves compare with those made a decade ago under President Barack Obama. But the scheduled announcement coincides with a severe humanitarian and energy crisis, with some experts saying the island could run out of fuel within weeks because of a de facto blockade by the Trump administration.

目前尚不清楚古巴计划将经济开放到何种程度，也不清楚这些举措与十年前奥巴马总统任内制定的政策相比有何异同。但此次原定的宣布，恰逢古巴陷入严重的人道主义与能源危机之际。有专家表示，由于特朗普政府实施的实质封锁，这个岛国可能在数周内耗尽燃料。

For the past three months, the United States has choked off Cuba’s access to foreign oil, blocking shipments from Venezuela and elsewhere. Frequent blackouts have followed — including the broad power outage on Monday — and hospitals have had to postpone some procedures, deepening a humanitarian crisis that has also involved food shortages and has led to rare protests on the island.

过去三个月，美国切断了古巴获取境外石油的渠道，拦截了来自委内瑞拉等国的石油运输。随后古巴频繁发生停电，周一的大范围断电也在其中；医院不得不推迟部分手术，本就因食品短缺加剧的人道主义危机进一步恶化，还引发了古巴国内罕见的抗议活动。

Officials had planned to announce the economic changes on an evening television program, Mesa Redonda, or Round Table. The program was not broadcast at the scheduled hour. It was not immediately clear if that was the result of power outages.

古巴官员原计划在晚间电视节目《圆桌会议》上宣布这些经济改革举措，但该节目并未在原定时间播出，目前尚不清楚是否是停电所致。

The Obama administration had opened up business opportunities for American investors in the Cuban private sector, but the Cuban bureaucracy was unable to rapidly adapt and the Trump administration rescinded Mr. Obama’s measures.

奥巴马政府曾为美国投资者在古巴私营领域开放了商业机会，但古巴官僚体系未能快速适配，特朗普政府后续也撤销了奥巴马时期的相关政策。

Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga, who also serves as Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment, also said the Cuban government would open the economy to investments beyond the private sector. “This goes beyond the commercial realm,” he said. “It also applies to investments, not only to small ones, but also to large ones, especially in infrastructure.”

兼任古巴外贸和外资部长的佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加还表示，古巴政府的经济开放将不止于私营领域。“这不限于商贸范畴，”他说。“同样适用于投资领域，不仅包括小型投资，也包括大型项目，尤其是基础设施领域。”

But because of the decades-long U.S. embargo, Cuba is not easily able to attract American capital, Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga said.

但他同时表示，由于美国长达数十年的禁运令，古巴很难吸引美国资本。

A person close to the recent negotiations said that the Trump administration was waiting to see whether the changes to be announced on Monday would be truly structural and meaningful — not simply cosmetic — before deciding whether to issue licenses that would allow such investments. The person asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive diplomatic matters.

一位熟悉近期谈判的知情人士称，特朗普政府正观望古巴周一拟宣布的政策调整究竟是真正的结构性实质性变革，还是表面装点门面的举措，之后再决定是否发放许可，允许美国企业赴古投资。因未获授权公开谈及敏感外交事务，该人士要求匿名。

Carlos A Giménez, a Republican congressman from Florida who is Cuban American, said on X on Friday, in Spanish, “There will be ZERO investment from the US unless there is MAJOR political change on the island.”

佛罗里达州共和党籍众议员、古巴裔美国人卡洛斯·希门尼斯周五在X平台用西班牙语发文称：“除非这个岛上发生重大政治变革，否则美国的投资将会是零。”

As U.S. and Cuban officials negotiate over the future of the Communist-ruled island, the Trump administration is said to be seeking to push President Miguel Díaz-Canel from power, The New York Times reported on Monday.

《纽约时报》周一报道称，美古官员就这个共产党执政岛国的未来展开谈判之际，特朗普政府据悉正试图迫使总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔下台。

The Trump administration has warned that if Cuba does not cooperate, it could face a fate similar to that of Venezuela. In January, the U.S. military captured the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, after he refused to step down.

特朗普政府发出警告，若古巴拒不配合，或将面临与委内瑞拉相似的结局。今年1月，委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗因拒绝下台，被美军抓捕。

Last week, President Díaz-Canel acknowledged in a televised appearance that his government was engaged in talks with Trump administration officials to resolve the standoff.

上周，迪亚斯-卡内尔总统在电视讲话中承认，古巴政府正与特朗普政府官员谈判，以解决当前对峙僵局。

In his 90-minute appearance, Mr. Díaz-Canel said that a decision to be announced on Monday would “greatly facilitate” the participation of Cubans abroad in the island’s “economic and social development program.”

在这场90分钟的讲话中，迪亚斯-卡内尔表示，定于周一宣布的决定，将“极大促进”海外古巴侨民参与古巴的“经济与社会发展计划”。

Demographers estimate that more than two million Cubans have left the country in the past five years. In his remarks, Mr. Díaz-Canel said, “It is our responsibility as the government to embrace them, listen to them, tend to them and offer them a space to participate in the economic and social development.”

人口统计学家估算，过去五年已有超200万古巴人离开祖国。迪亚斯-卡内尔在讲话中称：“作为政府，我们有责任接纳他们、倾听他们、关照他们，为他们提供参与国家经济社会发展的空间。”

Some Cuban exiles in Florida and elsewhere have for years pushed for the Cuban government to allow Cubans overseas to invest in the nation’s economy.

多年来，佛罗里达及其他地方的部分古巴流亡者一直推动古巴政府允许海外侨民投资古巴经济。

Cuban officials have signaled to some Cuban Americans that Monday’s announcement will involve allowing exiles to return to the island freely and to run a type of enterprise that was legally recognized by the government in 2021. Those entities are allowed to import goods, provide services, and create jobs, and they have quickly become critical to the Cuban economy. Private supermarkets, for instance, have higher prices than state-run stores but carry a far broader selection of food.

古巴官员已向部分古巴裔美国人透露，周一的公告涉及允许流亡者自由回国，并经营一类2021年获得政府合法认可的企业。这类实体被允许进口商品、提供服务并创造就业岗位，已迅速成为古巴经济的关键支柱。例如，私营超市的售价虽高于国营商店，但食品品类要丰富得多。

For more outsiders to enter and run businesses in Cuba, the U.S. government would have to ease restrictions on traveling and doing business on the island.

若要让更多境外人士进入古巴开展业务，美国政府必须放宽赴古旅行和经商的相关限制。

Hugo Cancio, a Cuban American in Miami, has been running perhaps the most visible U.S.-owned business in Cuba for years. His e-commerce platform, Katapulk, has become a sort of Cuban Amazon, allowing Cubans abroad to order and ship goods to their friends and relatives still in Cuba.

迈阿密的古巴裔美国人乌戈·坎西奥多年来经营着或许是古巴境内知名度最高的美资企业。他的电商平台Katapulk堪称古巴版的亚马逊，旅居海外的古巴人可通过该平台下单，并寄送给留在古巴的亲友。

Mr. Cancio built Katapulk as a U.S.-based entity with a special license to form partnerships with businesses in Cuba, which deliver the goods on the ground. But that structure has been complicated, and U.S. government restrictions have at times hamstrung operations, he said.

坎西奥将Katapulk打造为一家总部位于美国的企业，持有特殊许可，可与古巴本土企业建立合作伙伴关系，由后者负责在当地配送货物。但他表示，这种运营模式本就复杂，美国政府的限制还时常阻碍业务开展。

If the Cuban government allows Cuban Americans to own businesses in Cuba, they could function as a bridge to Washington, Mr. Cancio said.

坎西奥称，若古巴政府允许古巴裔美国人在古拥有企业，这些人将成为古巴与华盛顿之间的沟通桥梁。

“As the Cuban authorities recognize our rights to be part of the Cuban nation, to participate in the economic transformation and the potential political reforms of the future, we will be the ones that will change Washington,” he said. Exiles, he said, could push Congress and Trump administration officials to lift sanctions.

“随着古巴当局认可我们作为古巴民族成员的权利，认可我们参与经济转型、乃至未来潜在政治改革的权利，我们也将成为改变华盛顿的一股力量，”他说。他还表示，流亡群体可以推动国会和特朗普政府官员解除制裁。

“We will be the ones that will talk to Washington and say, ‘Our country now recognizes us, and we want to be part of that transformation,’” Mr. Cancio said.

“我们会成为和华盛顿沟通的人，告诉他们：‘我们的国家现在接纳了我们，我们想成为这场变革的一部分，’”坎西奥说。

By his own account, President Trump was asked to personally pick the name of the military operation against Iran and was bored by all the choices presented to him. “They gave me, like, 20 names, and I’m like, falling asleep,” he said last week. “I didn’t like any of them.”

据特朗普总统自己描述，他被要求亲自为针对伊朗的军事行动命名，但他觉得呈报给他的所有选项都索然无味。“他们给了我大概20个名字，我都听得快睡着了，”他上周说。“我一个都不喜欢。”

Then at last he was offered another option: Operation Epic Fury. That woke him up. “I like that name,” he told supporters at a rally in Kentucky. “I like that name.” And so it was selected.

终于，他得到了又一个选项：“史诗愤怒”行动(Operation Epic Fury)。这让他精神一振。“我喜欢这个名字，”他在肯塔基州的一次集会上告诉支持者。“我喜欢这个名字。”于是，这个名字被选中了。

After all, Epic Fury captures the Trump presidency in its essence. Everything Mr. Trump does, at least as he sees it, is epic — the biggest, the most, the first, “like we’ve never seen before,” as he likes to say. And much of what he does seems to be driven by fury, a deep and abiding enmity toward the forces arrayed against him or those he blames for what he considers the downfall of the country under other presidents.

毕竟，“史诗愤怒”从本质上捕捉到了特朗普总统任期的神韵。特朗普所做的一切——至少在他看来——都是“史诗”级的：最大的、最强的、第一的，正如他常说的，是“我们从未见过的”。而他的大部分行为似乎都由愤怒驱动——一种对他所认为的对立力量，或是对他眼中导致国家在其他总统任内衰落的责任者的深切且持久的敌意。

Operation Epic Fury, therefore, is a quintessentially Trumpian choice for the name of a war. Not for him an Operation Just Cause (Panama), Operation Restore Hope (Somalia), Operation Uphold Democracy (Haiti) or Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan). While other military operation names in modern times have evoked broader American values or uplifting sentiments like freedom and hope, Mr. Trump prefers rage.

因此，“史诗愤怒”是一个典型的特朗普式战争命名。他不需要“正义事业”行动（巴拿马）、“恢复希望”行动（索马里）、“维护民主”行动（海地）或“持久自由”行动（阿富汗）。现代其他军事行动名称往往唤起更广泛的美国价值观或令人振奋的情感（如自由和希望），而特朗普更偏爱愤怒。

This is in a way the Anger Presidency. Anger defines Mr. Trump’s decade on the political stage. Anger at foreigners who come to this country and change its nature. Anger at allies who take advantage of America. Anger at Democrats who cross him. Anger at Republicans who cross him. Anger at appointees he deems insufficiently loyal. Anger at prosecutors, F.B.I. agents, judges, journalists, law firms, elite universities, cultural figures, corporate leaders, pollsters, central bankers and the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

在某种程度上，这是一个“愤怒的总统任期”。愤怒定义了特朗普在政治舞台上的十年：愤怒于来到这个国家并改变其性质的外国人；愤怒于占美国便宜的盟友；愤怒于反对他的民主党人；愤怒于反对他的共和党人；愤怒于他认为不够忠诚的任命官员。他愤怒的对象还包括检察官、FBI特工、法官、记者、律所、精英大学、文化人物、企业领袖、民调专家、央行行长以及挪威诺贝尔委员会。

His rally speeches, news conferences and social media feed are suffused with anger. In the past week, he attacked the “truly sick and demented people” in the news media, the “Radical Left Democrats,” the “Cognitive Mess” governor of California, a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER” Republican congressman from Kentucky and a “misfit” Harvard professor, not even counting the “deranged scumbags” in Iran.

他的集会演讲、新闻发布会和社交媒体动态都充斥着愤怒。在过去的一周里，他攻击了新闻媒体中“极其病态和疯狂的人”、“激进左翼民主党人”、加州那位“认知混乱”的州长、一位来自肯塔基州的“彻头彻尾的灾难级”共和党国会议员，以及一位“格格不入”的哈佛教授，这还没算上伊朗那些“疯掉的卑鄙小人”。

Stewing over recent losses in court, he spent Sunday night posting a series of rambling rants assailing the “completely inept and embarrassing” Supreme Court, the “Deranged” former special counsel, the “absolutely terrible” chair of the Federal Reserve, the “grossly incompetent” former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., journalists who “should be brought up on Charges for TREASON” and “a Wacky, Nasty, Crooked, and totally Out of Control Judge” who ruled against him.

在为最近的法庭失利耿耿于怀时，他周日晚间发布了一系列语无伦次的控诉，抨击“完全无能且令人尴尬”的最高法院、“疯狂的”前特别检察官、“表现极其糟糕”的联邦储备委员会主席、“极度无能”的前总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登、那些“应以叛国罪起诉”的记者，以及一位对他做出不利判决的“古怪、肮脏、狡诈且完全失控的法官”。

He has aroused plenty of anger in others as well, an intense and visceral ire at a leader whom many on the other side of the political spectrum despise and fear. The word volunteered the most by Democrats to describe their emotions about Mr. Trump’s presidency in a January survey by The New York Times and Siena College was “anger.” Independents offered that same word alongside “disappointment.” Mr. Trump and his allies regularly accuse opponents of being afflicted by what they call Trump Derangement Syndrome.

他同样激发了他人心中强烈的愤怒——政治光谱另一端的人们对他既鄙视又恐惧。在《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院1月份的一项调查中，民主党人在描述对特朗普总统任期的感受时，用得最多的词就是“愤怒”。独立人士给出的词也是“愤怒”以及“失望”。特朗普及其盟友则经常指责对手患有所谓的“特朗普错乱症”。

All this, of course, has further charged an age of road-rage politics. Mr. Trump did not inaugurate the polarization that has deepened in America in recent years, but he tapped into it and added rocket fuel. More than at any time in years, Americans view one another through the lens of politics and tribal differences, led by a president who encourages that rather than trying to heal the divisions.

这一切无疑进一步加剧了“路怒式政治”时代。虽然近年来美国加深的极化现象并非由特朗普开创，但他利用了这种情绪并加注了火箭燃料。如今，美国人比多年来任何时候都更多地通过政治和部落差异的棱镜来看待彼此，而这位领导人非但没有试图弥合分歧，反而一直在推波助澜。

Americans are so angry that many no longer want to associate with people who disagree with them. Back in 1960, pollsters asked Americans if it would bother them to have their son or daughter marry someone from the other party. Only about 5 percent said yes. By 2024, that had risen to 38 percent for Republicans and 45 percent for Democrats. Studies show that Americans increasingly are flocking to their own geographic, media and online spaces where they can associate with like-minded compatriots and seethe against those who see the world differently.

美国人的愤怒程度已经到了许多人不再想与政见不同者交往的地步。早在1960年，民调专家询问美国人，如果子女与异见党派人士结婚是否会介意，当时只有约5%的人表示介意。到2024年，这一比例在共和党人中上升到38%，在民主党人中上升到45%。研究显示，美国人正越来越多地聚集在各自的地域、媒体和网络空间里，与志同道合的人抱团，并对那些世界观不同的人怒目而视。

就在这个周末，特朗普先后咒骂了最高法院大法官、联邦储备委员会主席、前总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登等等人物。

Mr. Trump is not the first president with a temper. Even the genial Dwight D. Eisenhower was known to be sharp behind closed doors. Lyndon B. Johnson’s tantrums were Texas sized. Richard M. Nixon seemed to be on a medium boil for most of his nearly six years in office. Bill Clinton, known for being sunny in his public appearances, was famous among aides for what they called his “purple rages” at his staff when the cameras were off. In the privacy of the West Wing, Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s avuncular grandfather demeanor could turn cranky and snappish.

特朗普并非第一位脾气暴躁的总统。即便是和蔼可亲的德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔，在闭门会议中也被认为言辞犀利。林登·B·约翰逊发起火来是“得克萨斯级”的。理查德·M·尼克松在任的近六年里似乎一直处于一种“中度沸腾”的状态。比尔·克林顿以公开场合的阳光形象著称，但在镜头外，他因对助手发作所谓的“紫脸狂怒”而在幕僚中闻名。在西翼的私下场合，慈祥祖父般的小约瑟夫·R·拜登也可能变得暴躁和易怒。

But they rarely showed that side of themselves in public if they could help it. The disparity between public poise and private pique was lampooned by Barack Obama at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in 2015 when he showed up with Luther the anger translator, played by Keegan-Michael Key. From stage, Mr. Obama, a self-described “mellow sort of guy,” would utter some typically bland comment, and Luther would “translate” that into the angry diatribe the president wished he could say out loud.

但如果可以避免，他们很少在公开场合展示那一面。2015年白宫记者晚宴上，贝拉克·奥巴马曾调侃这种“公开沉着与私下恼怒”的反差，当时他带着由基根-迈克尔·凯扮演的愤怒翻译员卢瑟登场。台上，自称“温和派”的奥巴马会发表一些典型的平淡言论，而卢瑟则会将其“翻译”成总统内心想大声吼出来的愤怒抨击。

Mr. Trump, by comparison, does not shy away from diatribes. He embraces anger as part of his persona. His favorite pose for photographers is not a smile but a scowl. “How is the look?” he sometimes asks advisers after a photo shoot. The whole shtick of his 14-year run on reality television was celebrating his end-of-the-episode “You’re fired” takedowns of the losing contestants. Indeed, after laying into Volodymyr Zelensky, the embattled president of an embattled Ukraine, in the Oval Office last year, Mr. Trump noted with satisfaction that “this is going to be great television.”

相比之下，特朗普并不回避抨击。他拥抱愤怒作为其人设的一部分。他最喜欢的拍照姿势不是微笑，而是皱眉。“这表情怎么样？”拍照后他有时会问顾问。他在真人秀节目中长达14年的噱头，就是以此为乐：在每集结尾以一句“你被解雇了”击溃失败的参赛者。事实上，去年在椭圆形办公室痛斥身处困境的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后，特朗普满意地表示：“这会是非常精彩的电视节目。”

For a military operation name, Epic Fury sounds like a video game, which may be apt because that’s the way the Trump White House is marketing this war. Online videos circulated by the administration have portrayed the assault on Iran as if it were the latest installment of “Call of Duty.”

对于一个军事行动的名字，“史诗愤怒”听起来像是一款电子游戏，而这或许很贴切，因为这正是特朗普白宫推销这场战争的方式。政府在网上发布并传播的视频将对伊朗的袭击描绘得就像是《使命召唤》的最新续作。

去年在椭圆形办公室痛斥身处困境的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后，特朗普表示“这会是非常精彩的电视节目”。

In choosing the name, Mr. Trump was focused less on anger than on American strength, according to a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the president’s thinking. He believes he was elected on a platform of restoring the country’s standing on the world stage and the name reflects that, the official said.

据一位不愿透露姓名的白宫官员描述总统的想法，在选择这个名字时，特朗普关注的重点与其说是愤怒，不如说是美国的实力。该官员表示，特朗普认为自己是基于恢复美国的国际地位这一纲领当选的，而这个名字正反映了这一点。

President Trump on Monday said he would ask to postpone a planned visit to Beijing at the end of the month to meet with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, saying: “We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

特朗普总统周一表示，他将要求推迟原定于本月底访问北京、会见中国领导人习近平的计划，他说：“我们正处于战争状态，我认为留下来很重要。”

Earlier, he disparaged U.S. allies that he said had relied too long — and too expensively — on American defense, as several of those countries have declined to meet his call to send warships to escort merchant vessels in and out of the Persian Gulf.

此前，他还抨击美国的一众盟友过度长期依赖美国提供防务保护，代价高昂，原因是其中多个国家拒绝响应他派遣军舰护航波斯湾商船进出的呼吁。

Referring to countries that have rebuffed, or reacted coolly, to his appeal for help in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump said he had long believed that “if we ever needed help, they won’t be there for us,” and they were proving his point. He added, “You mean for 40 years we’re protecting you and you don’t want to get involved in something that’s very minor?” noting that Europe, Japan and others depend on oil from the Persian Gulf far more than the United States does.

谈及那些拒绝回应他关于协助护航船只通过霍尔木兹海峡的呼吁，或反应冷淡的国家，特朗普表示，他一直认为“如果我们有朝一日需要帮助，他们绝不会帮我们”，而这些国家现在的表现印证了他的判断。他还说：“你们的意思是，我们保护了你们40年，而你们连这么一件小事都不愿参与？”他指出，欧洲、日本等地区和国家对波斯湾石油的依赖程度远超美国。

On Sunday, he had said he might not make the trip if China did not contribute warships to the escort efforts, but in his remarks on Monday he did not link the two things.

周日，特朗普表示，若中国不派遣军舰参与护航，他可能取消此次访华行程，但周一的讲话中，他并未将两者关联。

“We don’t need anybody; we’re the strongest nation in the world,” Mr. Trump said. He suggested his request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz instead amounted to a loyalty test of America’s allies. “I’m almost doing it in some cases not because we need them but because I want to find out how they react,” he said.

“我们不需要任何人，我们是世界上最强大的国家，”特朗普称。他表示，呼吁盟友协助重开霍尔木兹海峡，实则是对美国盟友的忠诚度测试。“在某些情况下，我这么做并不是因为我们需要他们，而是想看看他们会怎么反应。”

Even so, Mr. Trump said that “numerous countries have told me that they’re on the way.” But asked to name them, he replied, “I’d rather not say yet, but we’ll be announcing them.”

即便如此，特朗普称“已经有很多国家告诉我，他们正在赶来”。但被问及具体国家时，他回应：“我现在还不想说，但我们会公布名单的。”

The sharpest refusal to his belated effort to build an international coalition against Iran came Monday from Germany, whose defense minister, Boris Pistorius, said, “This is not our war; we did not start it.” Top officials of Japan, Italy and Australia said Monday that their countries would not participate in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

周一，德国对特朗普组建反伊朗国际联盟的滞后努力给出了最明确的拒绝，德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托留斯表示：“这不是我们的战争，不是我们挑起的。”日本、意大利和澳大利亚的高级官员周一也宣布，本国不会参与重开霍尔木兹海峡的行动。

The European Union will not expand maritime operations in the region to protect traffic through the strait, said its top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. “This is not Europe’s war, but Europe’s interests are directly at stake,” she said.

欧盟最高外交官卡娅·卡拉斯称，欧盟不会扩大在该地区的海上行动以保护海峡通行。“这不是欧洲的战争，但欧洲的利益直接受到威胁，”她表示。

Others were noncommittal, including France, South Korea and Britain, whose prime minister, Keir Starmer, said his country would not be “drawn into wider war.”

其他国家则态度暧昧，包括法国、韩国和英国。英国首相斯塔默称，英国不会“被卷入更广泛的战争”。

As Iran blockades most traffic through the oil shipping choke point, Mr. Trump’s call on social media on Saturday for other nations to join the United States in an escort effort was the first time he had sounded eager to build a broad coalition against Iran. But he was asking for backup from allies he had not consulted ahead of the U.S.-Israeli decision to go to war, and whom he had derided as freeloaders again on Monday.

随着伊朗封锁这一石油运输咽喉要道的大部分通行，特朗普周六在社交媒体上呼吁其他国家与美国共同开展护航行动，这是他首次表示希望组建一个广泛的反伊朗联盟。但他是在美以决定开战前未与盟友磋商的情况下寻求盟友支援，周一又再次将这些盟友嘲讽为“搭便车者”。

Mr. Trump has said that China, too, should take part, because it is heavily dependent on oil from the Gulf, but Iran sells oil to China and is allowing Chinese ships to transit the strait safely, giving Beijing little incentive to go along.

特朗普称，中国也应参与其中，因为中国高度依赖海湾地区的石油，但伊朗向中国出售石油，并允许中国船只安全通过海峡，这使得北京几乎没有参与的动力。

The American-Israeli air war against Iran, now in its third week, has killed more than 2,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and has drawn in much of the Middle East. Iran has launched rockets and drones at neighboring countries and at ships in the Gulf, and global energy prices have skyrocketed. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, briefly reached $106 on Monday, before falling back to about $100.

美以对伊朗的空袭已进入第三周，已造成超2000人死亡，死者主要来自伊朗和黎巴嫩，战火已波及中东大部分地区。伊朗向邻国及海湾船只发射火箭弹和无人机，全球能源价格飙升。周一，作为全球石油基准的布伦特原油价格一度触及106美元，随后回落至约100美元。

The United States appears to have been unprepared for the extent of Iran’s retaliation and the need to protect merchant ships and giant oil tankers from attack — something that administration officials have discussed publicly since the first week of the war, but has not yet begun. Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, in a video update on Monday, did not offer details on how the United States would reopen the strait

美国似乎对伊朗的报复规模以及保护商船和巨型油轮不受袭击的必要性准备不足——尽管政府官员自战争第一周开始就已公开讨论过这个问题，但相关行动尚未展开。美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在周一的视频通报中，并未透露美国将如何重新开放海峡的具体细节。

Two weeks into a war against Iran that he chose to launch, President Trump faces a stark choice — stay in the battle to achieve the dauntingly ambitious goals he has set, or try to extract himself from an expanding and intensifying conflict that is generating damaging military, diplomatic and economic shock waves.

在他主动对伊朗发起的这场战争已经过去两周之际，特朗普总统面临着一个严峻的选择——是继续战斗以实现他所设定的那些令人生畏的宏伟目标，还是设法从这场不断扩大且愈演愈烈的冲突中抽身，而这场冲突正产生具有破坏性的军事、外交和经济冲击波。

He has quickly discovered that both options are deeply problematic, littered with consequences that he and his team downplayed when he plunged the United States, alongside Israel, into the biggest war in the Middle East in nearly a quarter-century.

他很快发现，这两个选项都极具挑战，且会导致严重后果——而在他带领美国与以色列一同投入这场中东近四分之一个世纪以来最大的战争时，他和他的团队曾表示无需过分担心这些后果。

He can continue to fight a weakened enemy that has nevertheless proved adept at extracting a fast-rising economic price for the United States and its allies, tying the global energy markets in knots and striking a dozen countries across the region.

他可以选择继续作战，敌人已被削弱，但仍证明自己善于让美国及其盟友付出快速飙升的经济代价。他们正将全球能源市场搅得混乱不堪，并袭击了该地区的十几个国家。

Battling on would put more American lives at risk, accelerate the financial costs and risk further fraying alliances. There is angst within Mr. Trump’s political base over the sharp departure from his pledge to avoid entangling the nation in more wars.

继续战斗将使更多美国人的生命处于危险之中，加剧财政成本，并可能导致盟友关系的进一步破裂。特朗普的政治基本盘本身也出现了不安，因为这与其避免让国家陷入更多战争的承诺背道而驰。

Or he can begin to pull back, even though most of his objectives — including assuring that Iran never again possesses the capability to produce a nuclear weapon — are not yet met. The biggest military accomplishments of the joint U.S.-Israel action so far, officials say, have been wiping out much of Iran’s missile arsenal and air defenses and crippling its navy. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s brutal leader for nearly 40 years, is dead.

或者，他可以开始撤军，尽管他的大部分目标——包括确保伊朗永远不再具备生产核武器的能力——尚未实现。官员们表示，到目前为止，美以联合行动最大的军事成果是摧毁了伊朗大部分导弹库和防空系统，并瘫痪了其海军。执政近40年的伊朗残暴领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊已经身亡。

But an emboldened theocracy is still in power, apparently commanded by the ayatollah’s injured son, who has already sworn to continue deploying Iran’s asymmetrical capabilities, from cyberattacks to planting sea mines and conducting missile strikes on targets in the region. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps paramilitary force and the militias that killed thousands of protesting Iranians on the streets in January remain in place.

然而，一个更加激进的神权政权仍在掌权，显然由哈梅内伊受伤的儿子指挥。他已经宣誓将继续部署伊朗的不对称作战能力，包括网络攻击、布设水雷以及对该地区目标进行导弹袭击。在1月份杀害数千名伊朗抗议者的强大准军事组织——伊斯兰革命卫队及其民兵组织依然纹丝不动。

周日美以联军在德黑兰发动空袭的现场。

Moreover, if Mr. Trump leaves now, the stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel that is at the heart of fears that Iran could manufacture 10 or more nuclear weapons would remain inside Iranian territory, within reach of a wounded Iranian government that may be more motivated than ever to turn that fuel into weapons. “People are going to have to go and get it,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said just as the war began, alluding to a ground operation to retrieve the material from deep underground storage in the heart of Iran, an immensely risky operation that Mr. Trump has said he is considering but not ready to order.

此外，如果特朗普现在撤军，那批处于恐惧核心的、接近武器级的核燃料仍将留在伊朗境内。人们担心伊朗可能利用这些燃料制造10枚或更多核武器，而一个受创的伊朗政府可能比以往任何时候都更有动力将这些燃料武器化。“必须有人去把它取回来，”国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥在战争刚开始时说道，他暗指要进行地面行动，从伊朗心脏地带的深层地下仓库中回收这些材料。特朗普曾表示他正在考虑这项极具风险的行动，但尚未准备下达命令。

As the war enters its third week, the consequences are widening. Thirteen Americans have been killed in action. More than 2,100 people have been killed since the start of the war, most in Iran. More than 1,348 civilians there had been killed as of Wednesday, according to Iran’s representative to the United Nations.

随着战争进入第三周，其影响正在扩大。已有13名美军士兵阵亡。自战争开始以来，已有2100多人丧生，其中大多数在伊朗。根据伊朗驻联合国代表的数据，截至周三，已有超过1348名伊朗平民遇难。

The United States is deploying 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, adding to the 50,000 already there, after U.S. forces attacked Kharg Island, the huge shipping port for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports.

在美军袭击了伊朗绝大部分石油出口的枢纽——哈尔克岛之后，美国正向中东增派2500名海军陆战队成员，使驻军总数达到5.25万人。

Despite Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assertion that Iran’s success in threatening shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was nothing to worry about, that vital waterway remains all but shut down, choking off a big chunk of global trade, especially in oil. By Saturday, Mr. Trump appealed on social media for China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send naval forces to secure the strait, his first public acknowledgment that keeping the vital waterway open could require help and more resources than the United States has in the region now.

尽管国防部长皮特·海格塞斯声称伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡航运的企图不足为虑，但这一至关重要的水道目前几乎处于关闭状态，扼杀了全球很大一部分贸易，尤其是石油贸易。到周六，特朗普在社交媒体上呼吁中国、法国、日本、韩国和英国派遣海军力量来保卫海峡。这是他首次公开承认，维持这一重要水道的开放可能需要比美国目前在区域内更多的资源和外部帮助。

By Saturday, plumes of smoke were seen rising from a major oil trading port in the United Arab Emirates after a drone attack. To alleviate price hikes, the United States even suspended sanctions against some Russian oil sales. The U.S. Embassy in Iraq has been attacked twice in recent days.

截至周六，阿联酋一个主要的石油贸易港口在遭到无人机袭击后升起了烟柱。为了缓解油价上涨，美国甚至暂停了对部分俄罗斯石油销售的制裁。驻伊拉克美国大使馆在最近几天也遭到了两次袭击。

Mr. Trump has wrestled publicly with his stay-or-leave options, sometimes suggesting that the war is all but won and at others seeming to acknowledge that there is still heavy fighting ahead. The president, who said he ordered the attack because he had a “good feeling” that Iran was preparing to preemptively attack U.S. forces in the region, said the other day that he would also rely on his instincts on when to get out. He told Fox News he would “feel it in my bones.”

特朗普一直在公开纠结于“留还是走”的选择，有时暗示战争几乎已经获胜，有时又似乎承认前方仍有激战。这位自称因“预感”伊朗正准备对美军发动先发制人攻击而下令开战的总统，前几天表示他也会依靠直觉来决定何时撤离。他告诉福克斯新闻，他会“凭骨子里的感觉”做决定。

The second week of the war brought a recognition by the Trump administration that Iran’s willingness and ability to disrupt the global economy by choking off the Strait of Hormuz was greater than officials had anticipated, as was Tehran’s capacity to widen the war across the region, according to interviews with officials in the United States and Israel, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

根据对美以官员（其中许多人要求匿名以讨论国家安全事务）的采访，战争的第二周让特朗普政府意识到，伊朗阻断霍尔木兹海峡以扰乱全球经济的意愿和能力超出了官员们的预期，德黑兰将战争扩大到整个地区的能力也同样惊人。

伊朗仍由一个日益嚣张的神权政权掌权，该政权显然由阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊受伤的儿子领导，阿里·哈梅内伊本人已在战争初期阵亡。

Even as Mr. Trump repeatedly suggested that the war was almost won, the United States and Israel continued to step up the tempo of their operations and the United States continued to move more military resources into the region. There were signs that the U.S.-Israel partnership was undergoing strains. And some Republicans worried that Mr. Trump’s political base — deeply suspicious of foreign interventions — could fracture if the American commitment grows and U.S. casualties mounted.

尽管特朗普多次暗示战争即将胜利，但美国和以色列仍在继续加快行动节奏，美国也在向该地区运送更多军事资源。有迹象表明，美以伙伴关系正面临压力。一些共和党人担心，如果美国的投入增加且伤亡人数上升，特朗普那些对海外干预深表怀疑的基本盘可能会发生分裂。

Mr. Trump’s aides maintain that 14 days into a complex military operation is far too early to judge results. And they insist that Mr. Trump is prepared to tough it out.

特朗普的助手们坚称，对于一项复杂的军事行动来说，开战14天就评判结果还为时过早。他们坚信特朗普已经做好了挺过去的准备。

“He made the decision to take the short-term risk to oil prices for the long-term benefit of wiping out the threat that Iran poses to the United States,” Karoline Leavitt, the president’s press secretary, said on Saturday. “He is wise enough to know that operations like these are judged by their outcomes. And if the U.S. can say the Iranian military capability is wiped out, the president knows that will be one of the greatest accomplishments of any president in modern times.”

“他做出决定承受油价的短期风险，是为了换取彻底消除伊朗对美国威胁的长期利益，”总统新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周六表示。“他足够聪明，知道这类行动是以结果论英雄的。如果美国能表明伊朗的军事能力已被铲除，总统知道那将是现代任何一位总统最伟大的成就之一。”

She concluded: “The president is dug in to ensure the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved.”

她总结道：“总统正全力以赴，确保‘史诗愤怒行动’的目标全面实现。”

Even if Mr. Trump is right, the effects will be felt for years, or decades. Hoshyar Zebari, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Iraq, said that while he believed the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the “end of an era” for the region, he was not convinced that it meant the end of Iran’s theocratic Islamic Republic.

即使特朗普是对的，其影响也将持续数年甚至数十年。伊拉克前外交部长及副总理霍希亚尔·泽巴里表示，虽然他认为杀死哈梅内伊是该地区“一个时代的终结”，但他并不认为这意味着伊朗的神权伊斯兰共和国的终结。

“They are resisting, they are resilient,” he said. “This is a war between technology and ideology. The Iranians are squeezed, and their situation is difficult, but for them, this is ‘to be or not to be’.”

“他们在抵抗，他们很有韧性，”他说。“这是一场技术与意识形态之间的战争。伊朗人正承受压力，处境艰难，但对他们来说，这是‘生存还是毁灭’的问题。”

Reopening the Strait?

重新开放海峡？

At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr. Trump pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

在上周白宫椭圆形办公室的一次会议上，感到沮丧的特朗普质问参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军，为什么美国不能立即重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The answer was straightforward: Even one Iranian soldier or militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the strait in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slow-moving supertanker, or plant a limpet mine on its hull.

答案很简单：即便只有一名伊朗士兵或民兵驾驶快艇穿过狭窄的海峡颈部，也能向缓慢行驶的超级油轮发射移动导弹，或在其船体上安装吸附雷。

With oil already hovering around $100 a barrel, and insurance premiums for transiting the Persian Gulf surging, the image of more burning tankers would make the Iranians look more powerful than they really are. Already, having seen Iran attack shipping around the strait, tanker owners are refusing to take the risk, even after Mr. Trump declared on Fox last Sunday that they should “show some guts.”

随着油价已在每桶100美元左右徘徊，且穿行波斯湾的保险费飙升，更多油轮着火的画面会使伊朗人看起来比实际更强大。目睹了伊朗在海峡周边的袭击后，油轮船东们拒绝冒险，即便特朗普上周日在福克斯新闻上宣称他们应该“拿出点胆量来”。

上周，霍尔木兹海峡附近的油轮。该海峡的航运几乎陷入停滞，导致全球经济受到拖累。

By the Pentagon’s metrics — “total air dominance,” as Mr. Hegseth put it, plus the sinking of much of Iran’s navy and the destruction of hundreds of missiles and launchers — the U.S. military is ahead of schedule.

按照五角大楼的指标——如海格塞斯所说的“完全制空权”，加上击沉了伊朗大部分海军并摧毁了数百枚导弹和发射器——美军的进度是超前的。

“Iran has no air defenses, Iran has no air force, Iran has no navy,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters during a Pentagon briefing. Iran is now firing 90 percent fewer missiles than at the start of the war, the Pentagon reported, and 95 percent fewer one-way attack drones.

“伊朗没有防空系统，没有空军，没有海军，”海格塞斯在五角大楼简报会上告诉记者。五角大楼报告称，伊朗现在的导弹发射量比战争开始时减少了90%，自杀式无人机减少了95%。

“Never before has a modern capable military, which Iran used to have, been so quickly destroyed and made combat-ineffective,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters on Friday.

“从未有一支像伊朗这样具备现代化能力的军队，如此迅速地被摧毁并失去战斗力，”海格塞斯周五说道。

But the problem is that the destruction of its conventional forces has not eliminated Iran’s ability to sow chaos, even in its weakened state. And, five years into dealing with Mr. Trump, the Iranians appear to understand that soaring oil prices and declining stock markets can be powerful pressure points on him.

但问题在于，常规力量的毁灭并未消除伊朗制造混乱的能力，即便是在其虚弱的状态下。而且，在与特朗普打交道五年后，伊朗人似乎明白，飙升的油价和下跌的股市是对特朗普最有力的压力点。

The strait was Exhibit A in Iran’s ability to seize an asymmetric advantage. Despite ramped-up strikes in recent days against what little is left of the Iranian Navy, traffic through the strait has come to a near halt. A New York Times analysis concluded that as of Thursday, at least 16 oil tankers, cargo ships and other commercial vessels had been attacked in the Persian Gulf, including three in the narrowest part of the strait.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗夺取不对称优势能力的“证物A”。尽管最近几天加大了对伊朗海军残余力量的打击，但海峡的航运已近乎停滞。《纽约时报》的一项分析得出结论，截至周四，波斯湾至少有16艘油轮、货船和其他商业船舶遭到袭击，其中三艘发生在海峡最狭窄处。

The one solution being discussed the most is having the U.S. Navy escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a costly and risky operation and one that administration officials conceded was probably weeks away. The United States would need to assemble even more ships and defensive equipment, and conduct further assaults on the Iranian weaponry that menaces the strait.

目前讨论最多的解决方案是让美国海军为通过海峡的商船护航——这是一项耗资巨大且风险极高的行动，政府官员承认这可能还需要数周时间。美国需要集结更多的船只和防御设备，并对威胁海峡的伊朗武器进行进一步打击。

Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command, which is carrying out the war effort, flew to Washington for a two-hour meeting on Thursday night at the Pentagon with Mr. Hegseth and General Caine to discuss strategy and additional forces.

负责此次战争行动的美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将周四晚飞抵华盛顿，在五角大楼与海格塞斯和凯恩将军进行了两小时的会议，讨论战略和增兵事宜。

The next day, U.S. officials said that about 2,500 Marines aboard as many as three warships were cutting short a tour in the Indo-Pacific to rush to the Middle East. Military officials declined to say what missions the Marines would be assigned, but they are equipped to help secure the strait or potentially join an operation to seize Kharg Island, should Mr. Trump order them into action.

次日，美国官员表示，最多可达三艘军舰上的约2500名海军陆战队员提前结束了在印太地区的部署，正赶往中东。军方拒绝透露这些士兵将承担什么任务，但他们配备的装备足以帮助保卫海峡，或者如果特朗普下令，他们可能会参与夺取哈尔克岛的行动。

On Sunday, a senior U.S. military official said there would be an international effort to ensure the flow of oil and goods through the strait.

周日，一名美国军方高级官员表示，将通过国际协作来确保石油和商品的流通。

油价徘徊在每桶100美元左右，汽油价格也大幅上涨。

But while American leaders were bringing in reinforcements, so were the Iranians — of a different kind. Iran built up a talented cybercorps after the United States and Israel mounted a sophisticated cyberattack on the country’s nuclear centrifuges more than 16 years ago. Now Iran’s hackers were being called into service, directed at targets in both Israel and the United States.

然而，在美国领导人引入援军的同时，伊朗人也在引入另一种不同类型的援军。自16多年前美以对伊朗核离心机发动复杂的网络攻击以来，伊朗建立了一支极具才能的网络军团。现在，伊朗的黑客正被征召入伍，目标直指以色列和美国。

One of the most conspicuous of those affected was Stryker Corporation, a maker of advanced medical equipment in Michigan. Its systems were brought down last week, and an organization of hackers called Handala claimed responsibility, saying that it was in retaliation for the strike on an elementary school outside a military base in southern Iran in which, according to Iranian officials, at least 175 people died, mostly children. (The Times has reported that a preliminary finding by the U.S. military indicates that a Tomahawk missile, launched by U.S. forces, was responsible for the school strike.)

受影响最明显的公司之一是位于密歇根州、生产先进医疗设备的史赛克公司。该公司的系统上周瘫痪，一个名为Handala的黑客组织宣称对此负责，称这是对伊朗南部军事基地外一所小学遭袭事件的报复。根据伊朗官员的说法，那次袭击造成至少175人死亡，其中大多数是儿童。（《纽约时报》报道称，美国军方的一项初步调查结果显示，袭击学校的是一枚由美军发射的“战斧”巡航导弹。）

And then there were a series of terrorist attacks inside the United States that were attributed to individuals who might have been inspired by the American and Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon, though the evidence so far is murky. On Thursday, a man yelling “Allahu akbar” opened fire at Old Dominion University in Virginia before being killed, and in Michigan, a naturalized American citizen born in Lebanon rammed his vehicle into a reform synagogue that is home to a school before killing himself.

此外，美国境内发生了一系列恐怖袭击，据称袭击者受美以袭击伊朗和黎巴嫩军事行动的激发，尽管目前证据仍然不明确。周四，一名高呼“真主至大”的男子在弗吉尼亚州欧道明大学开枪，后被击毙；在密歇根州，一名黎巴嫩出生的美国归化公民驾车冲撞一所设有学校的改革派犹太会堂后自杀。

New Strains With Israel

与以色列之间的新摩擦

In the days leading up to the war in late February, senior Israeli officials told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if the initial strike against Iran succeeded in killing a large portion of the Iranian security establishment, including the supreme leader, there was a good chance that protests against the government would erupt again quickly.

在2月底战争爆发前的几天里，以色列高级官员告诉总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，如果对伊朗的初步打击成功击毙包括最高领袖在内的大批伊朗安全机构要员，那么反政府抗议活动很有可能再次迅速爆发。

Mr. Netanyahu appeared to sell that idea to Mr. Trump, who built it into his own message to the Iranian people on the morning of the opening attack. “When we are finished, take over your government,” Mr. Trump said. “It will be yours to take.”

内塔尼亚胡似乎把这一设想传达给了特朗普，后者在战争开始当天早上向伊朗民众发表讲话时也采用了这一说法。“当我们完成行动后，你们就去接管政府，”特朗普说。“那是属于你们的。”

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡于去年12月在佛罗里达州拜访了特朗普。内塔尼亚胡在上周的新闻发布会上表示，自战争爆发以来，两人几乎每天都在通话。

It seemed far-fetched to many at the time. In the two weeks since, only pro-government rallies have been seen in Tehran’s major squares, fueled by anger over the war and the American military’s apparent missteps, including the deadly strike on the school. Now Mr. Trump himself seems to have his doubts about how effective the protesters could be.

当时许多人觉得这种想法不太现实。此后两周，德黑兰主要广场上只出现了支持政府的集会，对这次战争的愤怒以及美国军方明显的失误（包括致命的学校袭击事件）加剧了这种情绪。如今，特朗普本人似乎也开始怀疑抗议者究竟能发挥多大作用。 

In a radio interview with Brian Kilmeade of Fox News, Mr. Trump conceded that the Basij militias tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would probably kill people who rose up.

在接受福克斯新闻主持人布莱恩·基尔米德的广播电台采访时，特朗普承认，与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队关联的巴斯基民兵很可能会杀害反抗的民众。

“They say, ‘Anybody protests, we’re going to kill you in the streets.’ So I really think that’s a big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons,” Mr. Trump concluded. “I think it’s a very big hurdle.”

“他们说：‘谁敢抗议，我们就当街杀掉你。’所以我确实认为，对没有武器的人来说，这是一个很难跨过的障碍，”特朗普总结说。“我认为这是一个很大的障碍。”

There has been similar tension over Israel’s second front in Lebanon, with renewed attacks on Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy group. In the Trump administration’s view, those strikes only heighten the risk from the spreading conflict while taking resources and attention away from the main target. In Mr. Netanyahu’s view, Iran and Hezbollah are inseparable, and the time to attack the terrorist organization is when the Iranian leadership is too consumed by its own battles to help out.

以色列在黎巴嫩的第二战线也出现了类似的分歧，以色列在该国再次打击伊朗的代理组织真主党。特朗普政府认为，这些打击只会加剧冲突蔓延的风险，同时分散了本应投入主要目标的资源与注意力。而内塔尼亚胡则认为，伊朗与真主党密不可分，趁伊朗领导层自顾不暇、无力支援之际，打击这个恐怖组织正是时机。

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement on Sunday that Israel and the United States were maintaining a “close and ongoing security and strategic cooperation, based on professional dialogue and the highest level of transparency.”

以色列国防军周日在声明中表示，以色列与美国“基于专业对话和最高透明度”，保持着“密切且持续的安全与战略合作”。

“The claim that the I.D.F. deliberately opened an additional front with Lebanon is incorrect and misleading,” the statement said, adding that “Hezbollah made a deliberate decision to join the war being waged by Iran against Israel and launched a wave of strikes, acting with the direction of the Iranian regime.”

“有关以军蓄意在黎巴嫩开辟另一战线的说法是错误且具有误导性的，”声明称，并补充称，“真主党蓄意决定加入伊朗针对以色列发动的战争，在伊朗政权指挥下发起了一系列袭击。”

以色列于3月7日袭击了伊朗的石油库，引发了大规模火灾，并导致油价出现飙升。

Through it all, Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu have been speaking almost every day, the prime minister said at a news conference last week. White House officials confirm the frequent conversations and say Mr. Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.

内塔尼亚胡上周在新闻发布会上表示，在此期间，特朗普与他几乎每天都通话。白宫官员证实了两人频繁沟通，并表示特朗普也定期与阿拉伯领导人通话，特别是沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。

According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake.”

据多名官员透露，特朗普从这位王储那里得到的建议是持续猛烈打击伊朗——这本质上是在重复2015年去世的沙特阿卜杜拉国王曾多次向华盛顿提出的建议：“斩掉蛇头”。

Trump’s Next Decisions: Kharg Island and the Nuclear Depot

特朗普的下一步决策：哈尔克岛与核武器库

Mr. Trump said at the outset of the conflict that he expected it could take four to six weeks of fighting, and White House officials say that is still their expectation. That means the war is likely to still be underway when Mr. Trump takes his long-awaited trip to China at the end of March, one that was supposed to focus on trade and security issues.

冲突伊始，特朗普曾表示，预计战事将持续四至六周，白宫官员称这一预期仍然未变。这意味着，当特朗普于3月底开启备受期待的访华之行时，战争很可能仍在进行中，而此次访问本应聚焦贸易与安全议题。

Now there is little doubt that the war will dominate the Beijing summit. Last year, President Xi Jinping of China used his control over critical rare earth minerals and magnets to force Mr. Trump to back down on tariffs; now he must face the possibility that this year Mr. Trump could control oil shipments to Chinese refineries from Venezuela and, depending how the war turns out, Iran.

如今几乎可以确定，这场战争将成为北京峰会的核心议题。去年，中国国家主席习近平利用对关键稀土矿产和磁体的掌控，迫使特朗普在关税问题上让步；如今习近平必须面对这样一种可能性：今年特朗普可能控制从委内瑞拉运往中国炼油厂的石油运输，根据战争走向，甚至可能控制伊朗对中国的石油运输。

In 2025 China purchased about 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, more than 13 percent of the oil it brought in by sea. (For Iran, China is overwhelmingly its biggest customer.)

2025年，中国日均进口伊朗石油约140万桶，占其海运石油进口总量的13%以上。（对伊朗而言，中国是压倒性的最大客户。）

Even as he prepares for the summit, Mr. Trump will have to grapple with two of the biggest decisions of the war: whether to attack, with ground troops, Kharg Island and the nuclear storage facilities where about 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium is believed to remain.

在筹备峰会的同时，特朗普还需应对这场战争中两项最重大的决策：是否动用地面部队攻击哈尔克岛，以及是否袭击据称仍存放着约440公斤近武器级铀的伊朗核储存设施。

They each pose very different challenges. The island is an exposed target, accessible to the U.S. Navy at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. But seizing it means protecting an occupying force from remnants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which could launch strikes from the shore or small boats, or blow up the pipelines that supply the port facilities on the island with Iranian oil. That could require a continuing military presence of exactly the kind that Mr. Trump’s political base has warned against and that Mr. Trump himself said he would never repeat.

这两个目标各自存在截然不同的挑战。哈尔克岛是一个暴露的目标，美国海军可从波斯湾北端轻松抵达。但占领该岛意味着要保护驻军不受伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队残余势力的袭击——这些势力可能从海岸或小艇发动攻击，或炸毁为岛上港口设施输送伊朗石油的管道。这可能需要维持美国的长期军事存在，而这正是特朗普政治基本盘所反对的，也是特朗普本人曾承诺绝不会重蹈的覆辙。

2017年，哈尔克岛港的一处石油码头。若将其占领，特朗普将完全掌控这个伊朗大部分石油出口的起运港。

But if it is successful, Mr. Trump will have full control of the port that most Iranian oil exports originate from — and thus a stranglehold on the country’s economy.

但这项目标一旦成功，特朗普将全面掌控伊朗大部分石油出口的始发港，从而扼住该国经济的咽喉。

The seizure of the nuclear fuel, on the other hand, would be a one-time raid, but even riskier.

相比之下，夺取核燃料虽然是一次性突袭行动，但风险更高。

Most of the uranium enriched to 60 percent — just shy of what is needed to produce nuclear weapons — is stored in deep tunnels in Isfahan, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is in gas form, in canisters that could each fit in the trunk of a car.

据国际原子能机构称，大部分丰度达60%的铀（仅略低于制造核武器所需水平）储存在伊斯法罕的深层隧道中。这些铀以气态形式存在，装在每个都能放进汽车后备箱的容器里。

But the tunnels are hard to get at, especially after the United States bombed the facility last June, collapsing many of the entrances. American and European intelligence agencies, which have been watching the Isfahan plant by satellite, say that while some access has been reopened, they see no evidence that the fuel has been removed. But that does not make it any easier to get at.

但这些隧道难以进入，尤其是美国去年6月轰炸该设施、导致多个入口坍塌之后。一直通过卫星监视伊斯法罕核设施的美国和欧洲情报机构表示，尽管部分通道已重新开放，但没有证据表明核燃料已被转移。然而这并未让进入该设施变得更容易。

Special Operations forces would either have to go in stealthily, and hope to gain quick access, or go in with a huge protective force and spend days or weeks carefully extracting the canisters. There is little room for error: If the canisters were pierced and moisture entered them, the result would be both highly toxic and radioactive. If they were kept too close together, there would be risk of triggering a critical nuclear reaction.

特种部队要么必须秘密潜入，寄望于快速进入；要么必须配备庞大的防护部队，花费数天甚至数周时间小心提取这些燃料容器。几乎没有犯错的余地：如果容器被刺穿、水分进入，将会产生剧毒和放射性物质；如果容器之间放置过近，则有引发临界核反应的风险。

The issue is all the more urgent, American officials say, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is more desperate than ever — and may view keeping the nuclear fuel in Iran as the kind of leverage that could get the United States to back off.

美国官员表示，这一问题愈发紧迫，因为伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队比以往任何时候都更加孤注一掷——他们可能将保留伊朗境内的核燃料视为迫使美国让步的筹码。

“We haven’t made any decision on that,” Mr. Trump said about seizing the material. “We’re nowhere near it,” he said, which suggests that the war may have a long way to go.

“我们还没做出任何决定，”特朗普在谈及夺取核材料时表示。“我们还远远没到那一步，”这表明这场战争可能还有很长的路要走。

Thousands of miles from the attacks in the Middle East, at his company’s headquarters in Toronto, Amar Zaidi confronted what is normally a straightforward logistical task. He needed to ship fabric from a mill in Istanbul to a customer in Shanghai.

在距离中东空袭数千公里之外的多伦多，阿马尔·扎伊迪正在其公司总部面临一项本应简单的物流工作：他需要把一批面料从伊斯坦布尔的工厂运往一位上海客户手中。

But the usual route involved passing through Oman via the Suez Canal — a pathway suddenly fraught with danger. The price of booking a container ship was soaring.

但常规航线需要经苏伊士运河穿过阿曼——这条航道如今突然充满危险。预订集装箱货轮的价格正在暴涨。

Mr. Zaidi’s company, Rebus International, makes yarn and textiles, supplying raw materials to international clothing brands like Calvin Klein and Hugo Boss. Before the war in the Persian Gulf, transporting a container from Turkey to China cost about $2,000, he said. When he tried to book the journey this week, carriers demanded surcharges that multiplied the price to $10,000.

扎伊迪的公司Rebus国际主营纱线与纺织品，为卡尔文·克莱恩、雨果博斯等国际服装品牌供应原材料。他表示，波斯湾战争爆发前，从土耳其向中国运送一个集装箱的运费约为2000美元。而本周他预订航程时，承运商收取的附加费让价格飙升至1万美元。

“It’s chaos,” said Mr. Zaidi, 52, who has worked in the industry for three decades. “It’s the ripple effect. Everything is blamed on the war.”

“一片混乱，”现年52岁、在该行业工作30年的扎伊迪说。“这就是连锁反应。一切问题都被归咎于这场战争。”

Fabric is probably not the first item that springs to mind on the list of cargo waylaid by war. Wildly fluctuating prices for oil and natural gas are the most obvious manifestation, a result of the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the channel linking the Persian Gulf to the rest of the planet.

在各种因战争受阻的货物中，面料或许不是人们第一时间想到的物品。石油与天然气价格剧烈波动才是最直观的表现，这是连接波斯湾与全球各地的霍尔木兹海峡事实上被封锁导致的后果。

But the consequences of upending commerce in much of the Middle East are far broader, and increasingly apparent in industries beyond energy. From industrial commodities to tropical fruits, products needed in one place are getting stuck somewhere else. The longer the hostilities persist, the greater the upheaval for shoppers and businesses throughout the global economy.

但中东大部分商业活动被打乱所带来的影响远不止于此，在能源以外的行业正日益显现。从工业大宗商品到热带水果，一地急需的物资正滞留在另一地。敌对状态持续越久，全球经济中的消费者与企业面临的动荡就越大。

The reverberations amount to a rebuke of the notion that globalization is history, a claim popularized by nationalist movements on multiple continents.

这种连锁效应恰恰驳斥了“全球化已成为历史”的说法——这一论调在各大洲的民族主义运动中甚为流行。

President Trump has pursued a trade war in the name of forcing factory production back to the United States. China and India have pursued versions of self-sufficiency. Yet the war in the Middle East has highlighted the enduring reality of global economic integration. Supply chains are not only intact but expanding, heightening the risks when the movement of goods is interrupted.

特朗普总统以迫使制造业生产回流美国为名发动贸易战。中国与印度也推行了不同形式的自给自足政策。然而，中东战争凸显了全球经济一体化依然根深蒂固的持久现实。供应链不仅完好无损，还在不断扩张，这使得货物运输一旦中断，风险就会随之加剧。

“Every time we get one of these disruptions, we have these predictions that it’s the end of globalization,” said Steven A. Altman, a globalization expert at New York University’s Stern School of Business and co-author of a recent study on the continued expansion of trade and investment across borders. “The narrative is different from the reality.”

“每次出现这样的中断，就有人预言全球化要终结了，”纽约大学斯特恩商学院全球化专家、近期一项关于跨境贸易与投资持续扩张研究的合著者史蒂文·奥尔特曼表示。“叙事与现实并不一致。”

周三，油轮和货轮在霍尔木兹海峡排起长队，这条海峡连接波斯湾与世界其他地区。自冲突爆发以来，该航道基本处于关闭状态。

The turmoil of the Covid-19 pandemic revealed how bottlenecks in shipping can trigger cascading troubles. A floating traffic jam off a port in Southern California strands chemicals needed to make paint in Delaware. It ties up containers that could otherwise be used to load cargo in China, delaying exports of electronics destined for Ireland and pushing up the price of moving cargo everywhere.

新冠疫情的混乱已揭示出航运瓶颈如何引发连锁问题：加州南部港口外的海上拥堵导致特拉华州生产涂料所需的化学品无法运抵；这样的情况使得本可在中国装货的集装箱滞留，从而延误了发往爱尔兰的电子产品出口，并推高全球货运成本。

Such realizations prompted companies to highlight commitments to “supply chain resilience” alongside their usual devotion to efficiency. Retailers like Walmart shifted manufacturing from Asia to Mexico, shrinking the distance between factories and customers to limit their vulnerability to the hazards of global commerce.

这些认识促使企业在一如既往地追求效率之外，还开始强调“供应链韧性”。沃尔玛等零售商将制造业从亚洲转移至墨西哥，缩短工厂与消费者之间的距离，以降低全球贸易风险带来的脆弱性。

But the push toward more regional trade appears to be reversing, according to Mr. Altman’s report.

但奥尔特曼的报告显示，这种向区域贸易靠拢的趋势似乎正在逆转。

From 2020 to 2023, the share of American imports arriving from Mexico and Canada increased to 29 percent, from 26 percent. But over the first nine months of 2025, it dipped to 27 percent.

2020至2023年，美国从墨西哥和加拿大进口商品的占比从26%升至29%。但在2025年前九个月，这一比例回落至27%。

As the pandemic fades into memory, international companies have returned to seeking the lowest-cost suppliers of goods, wherever they may be.

随着疫情逐渐远去，跨国企业重新开始寻找成本最低的供应商，无论这些供应商位于何处。

And as the Trump administration dismantles federal programs aimed at increasing renewable sources of energy like solar and wind power, the nation is more exposed to the implications of higher prices for oil and gas.

与此同时，特朗普政府废除旨在增加太阳能、风能等可再生能源的联邦项目，使美国更易受到油气价格上涨的冲击。

All of which means that the halting of marine traffic through the Persian Gulf is likely to spread dysfunction widely.

这一切都意味着，波斯湾海上运输的中断很可能将混乱扩散至更广范围。

The most immediate crisis centers on energy. Tankers have been attacked. Oil facilities have been shut down. The war has delivered “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency declared on Thursday.

最直接的危机集中在能源领域。油轮遇袭、石油设施关停。国际能源署周四宣布，这场战争造成了“全球石油市场史上最大规模的供应中断”。

Not even the concerted release of oil reserves by 30 nations could prevent the price of oil from again breaching $100 a barrel. The prospect of a sustained increase in energy prices has economists warning of the potential for stagflation, a term coined to describe the impact of shocks in the 1970s: stagnant economic growth and higher prices.

即便30个国家协同释放石油储备，也未能阻止油价再次突破每桶100美元。能源价格持续上涨的前景，让经济学家警告可能出现滞胀——这个词曾被用来形容上世纪70年代石油冲击的后果：经济增长停滞与物价上涨并存。

Higher energy prices make fuel more expensive for trucks, tankers and jets, increasing the costs of moving cargo. Larger bills for gasoline and air-conditioning leave households with less money to spend on goods and experiences — a drag on economic growth.

能源价格上涨导致卡车、油轮和飞机的燃油成本上升，推高货运费用。汽油与空调开支增加，使得家庭可用于消费商品和体验的资金减少，进而拖累经济增长。

Companies that import products into the United States, the world’s largest economy, are grappling with confusion over the future of Mr. Trump’s tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled that he had breached his presidential authority.

向全球最大经济体美国进口商品的企业正陷入困惑：最高法院裁定特朗普超越总统权限后，其关税政策前景尚不明朗。

“We have created equal if not greater uncertainty parameters than during the pandemic,” said Nick Vyas, a supply chain expert at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “It’s a perfect storm for stagflation.”

“我们制造的不确定性因素，即便没有超过疫情期间，也已经与其相当，”南加州大学马歇尔商学院供应链专家尼克·维亚斯表示。“这是一场引发滞胀的完美风暴。”

In Southeast Asia, producers of shrimp and tropical fruits now struggle to transport their wares to Europe and North America. From India to Indiana, farmers are confronting higher prices for fertilizer because of the disruption to stocks produced in the Persian Gulf. The price of aluminum is climbing, given impediments to shipments from Qatar and Bahrain. Helium, a critical element for making computer chips, could soon become scarce.

在东南亚，虾类与热带水果生产商如今难以将产品运往欧洲和北美。从印度到印第安纳州，农民因波斯湾生产的化肥供应中断，从而面临化肥价格上涨。受卡塔尔和巴林航运受阻影响，铝价不断攀升。制造计算机芯片的关键原料氦气也可能很快面临短缺。

“This is not just an oil story,” Mr. Vyas said. “This is an industrial supply story.”

“这不仅仅是石油的问题，”维亚斯说。“这是整个工业供应链的问题。”

越南的热带水果生产商难以获得将产品出口到北美和欧洲的冷藏集装箱。如果海运危机持续下去，中国收获的棉花可能无法按时运抵巴基斯坦，这可能会导致其他地区的纺织企业延迟纱线生产。

The Gulf is a dominant source of urea, the leading form of nitrogen fertilizer. Making it requires ammonia, which is produced with natural gas. So long as energy production is hampered, the ability to make fertilizers will be constrained. Urea prices have already climbed significantly.

海湾地区是尿素的主要供应地，尿素是最主要的氮肥形式。生产尿素需要氨，氨则依赖天然气制造。只要能源生产受阻，化肥生产能力就会受限。尿素价格已大幅上涨。

If farmers economize in their use of fertilizer, that could reduce harvests, diminishing the supply of food and pushing prices higher. In vulnerable countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that could lead to greater malnutrition.

如果农民减少化肥使用，可能导致收成下降、粮食供应减少、价格上涨。在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚的脆弱国家，这可能加剧营养不良问题。

At the center of concern is disruption to shipping lanes and air cargo hubs in the Persian Gulf.

当前最令人担忧的是波斯湾航运通道与航空货运枢纽的中断。

With planes unable to land and refuel at major airports in Dubai and Doha on trips between Europe and Asia, they have had to reroute, often over Central Asia. That has lengthened journeys, requiring more fuel. And that has forced carriers to limit how much cargo they carry.

往返于欧洲与亚洲之间的航班无法在迪拜、多哈等主要机场降落加油，不得不改道，通常需途径中亚。这延长了航程，消耗更多燃油，也迫使航空公司限制货运量。

This is the time of year when major importers tend to negotiate yearlong contracts with ocean carriers. Container shipping prices have been relatively cheap because of a glut of new vessels entering the market. But now ocean carriers are absorbing the likelihood that fuel prices will be significantly higher just as some routes are impeded by the war.

每年这个时候，大型进口商通常会与海运公司协商全年合同。由于大量新船投入市场，集装箱运费此前一直相对低廉。但如今，随着部分航线受战争影响中断，海运公司正在承受燃油价格可能大幅上涨带来的影响。

“It’s certainly just one thing after another in this industry,” said Ryan Petersen, chief executive of Flexport, a global logistics company.

“这个行业真是祸不单行，”全球物流公司Flexport的首席执行官瑞安·彼得森说。

If there is a Chinese analogue to Nero’s fiddling while Rome burned, it is the country’s latest five-year plan.

如果要在中国找一个类似于“罗马焚城时尼禄却在弹琴”的典故，那可能就是该国最新的五年规划。

The policy blueprint — which sets out China’s economic strategy for the years ahead — was approved on Thursday by the National People’s Congress in Beijing. Chapter 15, titled “Vigorously Boosting Consumption,” proclaims that the Chinese consumer is finally going to start earning more and spending more.

这份为国家未来几年的经济战略定调的政策蓝图于周四在北京获得全国人大批准。其中第15章题为“大力提振消费”，宣称中国消费者终于要开始赚得更多、花得更多了。

This promise, which Beijing has been making for more than two decades, matters far beyond China. If Chinese consumers started spending more, it would help reduce the country’s reliance on exports to fuel its economy, a strategy that now floods world markets with Chinese-made goods and creates huge trade surpluses for China and persistent tension with trading partners such as the United States.

这一北京方面已承诺二十余载的愿景，其意义远不止于中国国内。倘若中国消费者真能扩大支出，将有助于降低该国经济对出口的依赖——现行依赖出口的战略导致中国商品充斥全球市场，既为中国创造巨额贸易顺差，也与美国等贸易伙伴持续产生摩擦。

The situation is unlikely to change under the new plan, which mostly doubles down on China’s longstanding approach of prioritizing export-oriented industries and technological development instead of creating a truly consumer-driven economy.

然而，新规划恐怕难以改变这一局面。文件大体上延续了中国长期奉行的方针：优先发展外向型产业和技术，而不是建立一个真正由消费驱动的经济。

Even if Communist Party leaders want to unleash more spending, formidable obstacles stand in the way, including a work force increasingly trapped in insecure, low-wage employment, a rapidly aging and shrinking population and a weak social safety net that encourages people to save for emergencies.

即便中共领导层希望释放更多消费，仍然有许多重大障碍，包括越来越多劳动力陷入收入不稳的低薪就业困境；人口迅速老龄化并持续减少；以及薄弱的社会保障体系，这些都促使人们为了应对不时之需而更多储蓄。

China’s people, perhaps more than at any time in the last few decades, are in no mood to go out and splurge. Many have been airing growing anxiety online, posting about falling incomes and scarce jobs. The average income was just over $500 a month in 2025. Unemployment is high.

此时此刻，中国民众外出大笔消费的意愿或许比过去几十年的任何时候都要低。许多人在网上表达日益增长的焦虑，发帖谈论收入减少、就业困难。2025年，中国人均月收入刚过3600元，失业率居高不下。

A fundamental shift that has taken place in China’s labor market is the root cause of these problems.

中国劳动力市场发生的一项根本性变化是这些问题的根源。

Since the early 2010s, intensifying global economic competition, automation, the pandemic-era closure of countless businesses, slowing economic growth and China’s protracted property slump have all combined to eliminate millions of manufacturing and construction jobs. This has driven countless workers into a growing service sector that requires fewer skills and offers lower pay.

自2010年代初以来，全球经济竞争日益激烈、自动化发展、新冠疫情期间大量企业倒闭、经济增长放缓以及中国持续低迷的房地产市场，这些因素共同作用，导致数以百万计的制造业和建筑业岗位消失。这迫使无数劳动者转向不断扩大的服务业，而这些岗位通常技能要求更低、薪资也更低。

An estimated 200 million people, or at least one-quarter of China’s work force, are now engaged in insecure “gig” employment — delivering meals or packages, driving ride-hailing cars, selling goods online or doing other short-term work. According to a study last year, nearly half of gig workers have little to nothing in the way of a social safety net — which would include health care, a pension, unemployment benefits, maternity benefits and secure housing. The problem is worsened by chronic government underinvestment in social services. On top of that, advances in technology have given companies a precise view of seasonal demand and simplified recruiting, enabling them to hire and fire workers as needed.

据估计，目前有2亿人——至少占中国劳动力的四分之一——从事着不稳定的“零工”工作，比如送外卖或送快递、开网约车、在网上卖货或做其他短期工作。根据去年的一项研究，近一半的零工劳动者几乎没有任何社会保障——包括医疗、养老金、失业救济、生育保险和住房保障。政府在公共服务方面长期投入不足，使问题更加严重。除此之外，技术的进步让公司能够精准把握季节性需求并简化招聘流程，使它们能够根据需要随时雇佣或解雇员工。

Adding to worker insecurity is China’s household registration system, which restricts access to social services like schooling and health care outside one’s hometown. This effectively ensures that people from China’s vast countryside serve as cheap migrant labor for megacities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Reform of the registration system has been discussed for decades, but eliminating it would shift enormous welfare costs onto those cities, which currently reap benefits from migrant labor without shouldering social costs.

中国的户籍制度也进一步加剧了劳动者的不安全感。该制度限制人们在户籍所在地之外获取教育、医疗等社会服务。这实际上是确保了来自广大农村地区的人口为北京、上海、深圳等大城市提供廉价的流动劳动力。关于户籍制度改革的讨论已经持续了几十年，但如果彻底取消这一制度，将把巨额福利成本转移到这些城市身上，而这些城市目前能够在不承担社会成本的情况下享受外来劳动力带来的好处。

These are hardly a foundation for a vibrant consumer economy, and the future is not looking better.

在这样的条件下，很难建立起一个充满活力的消费型经济，而且未来看起来也不容乐观。

The real estate crash, now five years old, has left homeowners paying mortgages on apartments they can’t sell. New families are a key driver of spending on homes, appliances and cars. But China’s people are marrying less frequently and having fewer babies: The population fell for the fourth straight year in 2025, and the fewest babies were born since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Fewer people, of course, means fewer consumers.

这场已持续五年的房地产崩盘让房主们只能继续偿还那些卖不掉的公寓的房贷。新婚家庭是住房、家电和汽车消费的重要推动力。但中国人的结婚率下降，生育率也越来越低：2025年中国人口连续第四年下降，新生儿数量也创下自1949年中华人民共和国成立以来的最低水平。人口减少，自然也意味着消费者减少。

The deeper question may be whether the Chinese Communist Party’s pledges to give consumers more of a role in the economy are real — or are empty promises to placate critics.

更深层的问题或许在于，中国共产党关于让消费者在经济中发挥更大作用的承诺，到底是真心实意，还是为了安抚批评者而开出的空头支票。

Consumer spending in China has hovered at 40 percent or less of China’s G.D.P. for years (compared with more than 65 percent in the United States). The government has introduced policies in recent years to encourage spending, but these typically take the form of rebates and subsidies for appliances, electronics and cars. This increases sales for manufacturers and retailers, but it doesn’t really improve the lot of the average consumer.

多年来，中国居民消费占国内生产总值的比重一直徘徊在40%或以下（相比之下，美国这一比重超过65%）。近年来，政府出台了一些鼓励消费的政策，但这些政策通常采取的形式是对家电、电子产品及汽车提供补贴和返现。这虽然增加了制造商和零售商的销售额，却并没有真正改善普通消费者的处境。

Increasing the role of consumer spending in China’s economy would mean surrendering some state control to the people, something the Communist Party is loath to do.

如果要提高消费在中国经济中的比重，就意味着要将部分国家控制权让渡给民众，而这是中共所不愿做的。

While the United States and Europe typically stimulate spending by putting money in consumers’ hands through tax cuts, direct payments to individuals and families or social safety nets that reduce the need to save for emergencies, China’s government manages the economy primarily through the country’s companies. It directs investment capital to them, grants them subsidies and uses other means to get the business sector to execute the party’s industrial policies.

在美国和欧洲，政府通常通过减税、向个人和家庭直接发放补贴，或者通过完善社会保障体系来减少人们为应对突发情况的储蓄需要，从而刺激消费。而中国政府则主要通过企业来管理经济：将投资资金导向企业、给予它们补贴，并通过其他方式推动企业落实党的产业政策。

Truly meaningful steps to increase the economic role of Chinese consumers would in effect redistribute income to households, leaving less capital for the party to direct toward strategic priorities like developing the tech industry, which Beijing sees as essential to securing the country’s technological self-sufficiency and competing with the United States.

如果要真正提高中国消费者在经济中的作用，实际上就意味着把收入重新分配给家庭，这样一来，党能够用于引导资本投向战略优先领域（例如发展科技产业）的资金就会减少。而北京认为，发展科技产业对于实现技术自给自足以及与美国竞争至关重要。

The success of China’s export machine offers little incentive for the Communist Party to change course and gamble on a new consumer-focused strategy. Trade surpluses may create tension with trading partners, but they earn Beijing massive amounts of hard currency and generate endless headlines about Chinese export dominance in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, ships and many other products. All of this projects an image of Chinese economic strength to audiences at home and overseas.

中国出口机器的成功几乎无法激励共产党改变路线，去冒险尝试以消费者为中心的新战略。贸易顺差固然会与贸易伙伴产生摩擦，但也为北京赚取了大量硬通货，并催生出无数关于中国在电动车、太阳能电池板、电池、船舶及许多其他产品领域占据出口主导地位的新闻头条。所有这些都在国内外观众面前塑造了一种中国经济强大的形象。

China’s government says the new five-year plan will lead to a marked increase in consumer spending. The more likely outcome is business as usual: more low-priced Chinese goods on world markets, more pressure on emerging economies struggling to spur their own development, even fewer Chinese imports of foreign products — and more tension with the rest of the world.

中国政府表示，新的五年计划将促使居民消费支出的显著增长。但更可能出现的结果是一切照旧：世界市场上充斥着更多低价中国商品，新兴经济体推动自身发展的努力面临更大压力，中国从国外进口的商品进一步减少——以及与世界其他国家的紧张关系加剧。

As the price of oil soars to $100 a barrel and countries scramble to limit the fallout of the sudden loss of Middle East fuel, China has two significant advantages over its geopolitical rivals.

随着油价飙升至每桶100美元，各国紧急行动起来，以求平抑中东燃料突然断供所带来的冲击，这期间，中国相对于其地缘政治对手拥有两大显著优势。

Many of its new cars run on electricity. And that electricity is mostly powered by sources at home.

其相当一部分新车采用电力驱动。而且这些电力主要来自国内能源。

China has spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars investing in electric vehicles and renewable energy, a long-term strategy that is paying off as other countries grapple with upheavals in the oil market. Beijing has sought to curb its reliance on foreign energy by expanding domestic supply and accelerating the development of alternative power sources, including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear.

中国几十年来投入数千亿美元发展电动汽车和可再生能源，这一长期战略如今正在开花结果，而其他国家正为石油市场的剧变苦苦挣扎。北京通过扩大国内供给并加速开发包括太阳能、风能、水能和核能的替代能源，努力降低对外国能源的依赖。

Chinese demand for refined oil, gasoline and diesel fell last year, making a second straight annual decline. This has prompted experts to forecast that China’s oil and gas consumption has peaked and that the country is less vulnerable to energy supply disruptions than it once was.

去年，中国对精炼油、汽油和柴油的需求出现下降，这是连续第二年下滑。专家因而预测，中国的石油和天然气消费已达峰值，该国已经不再那么容易受到能源供应中断的影响。

“China has a bit of a buffer and cushion compared to other countries,” said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, an independent research group. “The supply outages and price hikes do not significantly impact the running of its economy.”

“与其他国家相比，中国拥有一定的缓冲空间，”独立研究机构牛津能源研究所中国能源研究负责人米歇尔·梅丹表示。“供应中断和价格上涨不会对其经济运行造成重大影响。”

Oil prices pushed above $100 for the second time in a week amid growing concern that the ongoing fighting will choke traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is a vital trading route for oil and natural gas. World leaders agreed to release a record amount of oil from their emergency reserves and President Trump has backed off penalties on some Russian exports, but fears of supply shortages persisted as a growing number of oil and cargo ships became targets.

由于人们越来越担心持续的冲突将切断霍尔木兹海峡的交通——这条伊朗与阿曼之间的狭窄水道是石油和天然气的重要贸易通道——油价在一周内第二次突破100美元大关。世界各国领导人同意从紧急储备中释放创纪录数量的石油，唐纳德·特朗普总统也放宽了对部分俄罗斯出口的制裁，但随着越来越多油轮和货轮成为攻击目标，对供应短缺的担忧依然挥之不去。

While China imports half of its seaborne crude from the Middle East, Beijing has enough breathing room to avoid the kinds of extreme measures that some Asian countries have already adopted, such as shifting to a four-day workweek or closing universities to conserve energy.

虽然中国一半的海运原油来自中东，但北京有足够的回旋余地，不必像许多亚洲国家那样实施极端的措施，例如改行四天工作制或大学停课，以节约能源。

Over the last few years, China has transitioned the world’s largest automobile market from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles faster than any other major global economy. China sold more electric vehicles in 2025 than the rest of the world combined.

在过去几年里，中国以比其他主要全球经济体更快的速度将全球最大的汽车市场从燃油车转向电动汽车。2025年，中国电动汽车销量超过全球其他地区总和。

Half of the new cars sold in China are electric vehicles or hybrids that run on both electricity and gas. Around one-third of all new heavy-duty trucks are purely electric, according to the latest available data from the China Passenger Car Association.

在中国销售的新车中，一半是电动汽车或油电混合动力车。根据中国乘用车协会最新数据，大约三分之一的新重型卡车为纯电动。

By comparison, in the United States, around 22 percent of new cars sold in 2025 were hybrid or electric vehicles, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Electric vehicle sales plunged over the last few months of the year after a chunky federal tax credit expired.

相比之下，根据美国能源信息署数据，2025年美国新车销量中约22%为混合动力或电动汽车。一项巨额联邦税收抵免到期后，电动汽车销量在当年最后几个月大幅下滑。

A decade ago, China’s leading position in electric cars might have seemed improbable. Sales of gas-guzzling cars were surging and gasoline demand was climbing. But that changed after the government poured $300 billion into a campaign to create homegrown high-tech giants and reduce its foreign dependencies.

十年前，中国在电动汽车领域占据领先地位可能显得不可思议。当时，耗油量大的汽车销量激增，汽油需求持续攀升。但政府投入3000亿美元（约合20000亿元人民币）推动本土高科技巨头崛起并减少对外依赖后，局面发生了变化。

2025年，中国的电动汽车销量超过了世界其他地区的总和，由此创造了全国各地对充电站的需求。

From 2016 to 2022, the Chinese government provided more than $5 billion in direct subsidies to automakers to spur the development of electric vehicles, according to government data. BYD received the largest share and last year overtook Tesla as the world’s top electric vehicle seller.

根据政府数据，从2016年到2022年，中国政府向汽车制造商提供了超过50亿美元（约合344亿元人民币）的直接补贴，以刺激电动汽车发展。比亚迪获得最大份额，并于去年超过特斯拉，成为全球电动汽车销量冠军。

For Beijing, this shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy is rooted in a long-running fixation on addressing China’s energy vulnerabilities.

对北京而言，向电动汽车和可再生能源转型根植于长期以来对中国能源脆弱性的执着关注。

In the 2000s, Chinese leader Hu Jintao was preoccupied with another narrow passageway through which oil traveled to China: the Strait of Malacca. At the time, the waterway that separated Indonesia and Malaysia from Singapore carried 25 percent of global trade.

在2000年代，中国领导人胡锦涛曾格外关注另一条将石油运往中国的狭窄通道：马六甲海峡。当时，这条分隔印尼、马来西亚与新加坡的水道承载着全球25%的贸易。

“It is no exaggeration to say that whoever controls the Strait of Malacca will also have a stranglehold on the energy route of China,” a Chinese state-owned newspaper wrote in 2004.

2004年，一家中国国有报纸写道：“毫不夸张地说，谁控制了马六甲海峡，谁就扼住了中国的能源命脉。”

At the time, China responded by creating emergency petroleum stockpile facilities and investing in renewable energies. Today, among major Asian economies, China is the least affected by disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.

当时，中国通过建立紧急石油储备设施和投资可再生能源作出回应。如今，在主要亚洲经济体中，中国受中东石油和天然气供应中断的影响最小。

China is the world’s largest buyer of oil and gas and relies on coal for a little more than half of its energy needs. Oil and natural gas make up about a quarter. The rest is powered by nuclear and renewable sources like solar, wind and hydro.

中国是全球最大的石油和天然气买家，煤炭满足其略超一半的能源需求。石油和天然气约占四分之一，其余由核能以及太阳能、风能、水能等可再生能源提供。

“China’s push for renewable energy is not motivated by the environment but by the need for energy security and also as a driver of growth,” said Mathias Larsen, senior policy fellow at the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics. “Energy security has always been high on the agenda; it has always been a key motive.”

“中国推动可再生能源并非出于环保考虑，而是出于能源安全需求，同时也作为经济增长的引擎，”伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆研究所高级政策研究员马蒂亚斯·拉森表示。“能源安全始终是重中之重，一直是核心动机。”

While three-quarters of its oil is imported, it has been building up large strategic reserves. In the first two months of the year, China imported 16 percent more oil than in the same period a year earlier.

虽然四分之三的石油依赖进口，但中国一直在大规模积累战略储备。今年前两个月，中国石油进口量同比增加16%。

Two days after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, cheered China’s progress.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击两天后，中共机关报《人民日报》为中国的进步欢呼。

“My country has built the world’s largest renewable energy system,” the paper blared on the front page. The article noted that China had the world’s largest electric vehicle charging network.

该报头版头条高调宣称：“我国建成全球最大的可再生能源体系。”文章指出，中国拥有全球最大的电动汽车充电网络。

But even with these efforts, people in China are not entirely shielded from higher oil prices.

但即便有这些努力，中国民众仍无法完全免受油价上涨的影响。

Many Chinese homes also still rely on imported gas for heating. Chinese factories need petrochemicals to produce raw materials critical to the world’s supply chains, such as polyester for garments and rubber for tires.

许多中国家庭仍依赖进口天然气取暖。中国工厂需要石化产品生产全球供应链关键原材料，例如服装用的聚酯和轮胎用的橡胶。

On Monday, as oil prices skyrocketed toward $120, owners of internal combustion engine cars waited in long lines outside gas stations in dozens of Chinese cities. China’s top economic planning agency increased the retail price of oil by five percent, the biggest increase in four years, bringing the price at the pump to an average of $4.20 per gallon.

周一，当油价飙升逼近120美元时，中国数十个城市的燃油汽车车主在加油站外排起长队。中国最高经济规划机构将零售油价上调5%，创四年最大涨幅，使加油站平均油价达到每升7.96元。

Not long after the move, one woman in the Chinese coastal province of Zhejiang vented her frustration on RedNote, a Chinese social media app, posting a picture of her white Audi A5 filling up at a gas station.

上调后不久，沿海省份浙江的一名女性在中文社交媒体应用“小红书”上发泄不满，贴出了一张自己的白色奥迪A5在加油站加油的照片。

“What used to be called ‘fill up the tank’ is now called ‘pay for the petrol car,’” she wrote. “Every time I step on the gas, it feels like my heart’s bleeding.”

她写道：“以前叫‘加满油’，现在叫‘给油车交钱’。每踩一脚油门，都觉得心在滴血。”

Before the war with Iran started, American military commanders redirected a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. This week, the Pentagon has been moving sophisticated air defenses from Asia to bolster protection against Iran’s drones and rockets.

在与伊朗的战争爆发之前，美军指挥官已将一支航母打击群从南海调往中东。本周，五角大楼一直在转移原部署在亚洲的先进防空系统，以加强针对伊朗无人机和火箭的防护。

The redirected weapons include Patriot missiles and interceptors from the THAAD system in South Korea — the only Asian ally hosting the advanced missile defense system, deployed by the Pentagon to counter North Korea’s growing missile threat. Now, for the first time, its interceptors are being moved away, followed by launchers if the diplomatic and logistical details can be worked out, according to American officials.

被调动的武器包括“爱国者”导弹以及在韩国的“萨德”系统的拦截弹——韩国是亚洲唯一部署这一先进导弹防御系统的盟国，该系统由五角大楼部署，用于应对朝鲜日益增长的导弹威胁。这是其拦截弹首次被调离，美国官员表示，一旦敲定外交和后勤方面的细节，发射器也将转移。

The war in Iran — barely two weeks old — is already straining America’s promise of security in a region that U.S. military leaders have called “our priority theater.” Longer term, officials and analysts suggest the war will weaken American influence, aid Chinese arguments about American decline and accelerate a middle-power arms race.

进行才短短两周的伊朗战争已经开始考验美国在该地区的安全承诺，美军将领曾将该地区称为“我们的首要战区”。从长远来看，官员和分析人士认为，这场战争将削弱美国的影响力，支持中国关于美国衰落的论点，并加速中等强国的军备竞赛。

部署在韩国星州美军基地的萨德系统，摄于周三。

The war’s demands are widening. Australia this week sent aircraft, personnel and a supply of air-to-air missiles to the Middle East. Japan and Taiwan are facing potentially delayed arms deliveries as the United States and its Middle Eastern allies burn at a blistering rate through attacking missiles and defensive interceptors. Pentagon officials told Congress on Tuesday that they estimated the cost of the war had exceeded $11.3 billion in the first six days alone.

战争需求正在扩大。本周，澳大利亚向中东派遣了飞机、人员以及一批空对空导弹。日本和台湾可能面临武器交付延误，因为美国及其在中东的盟友正以极高的速度消耗进攻导弹和防御拦截弹。五角大楼官员周二向国会表示，他们估计仅前六天的战争成本就已超过113亿美元。

American military commanders have told The New York Times that they are worried about the shrinking stockpiles and diversions, which are affecting many regions. In Asia, U.S. allies feel the deficit acutely as they struggle to counter China’s surging military and increasingly aggressive regional maneuvers.

美军将领告诉《纽约时报》，他们担心库存缩减和武器转移，这影响到多个地区。在亚洲，美国盟友对这一短缺感受尤为强烈，因为他们正努力应对中国军力激增以及日益咄咄逼人的地区行动。

President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea told his cabinet on Tuesday that while his government opposed the Pentagon’s relocation of air-defenses, “it is also an undeniable reality that we cannot fully have our way on this matter.”

韩国总统李在明周二在内阁会议上表示，虽然他的政府反对五角大楼转移防空系统，“但我们无法完全按照自己的意愿行事，这也是一个不可否认的现实。”

Asia is drawing three early conclusions about America’s latest conflict.

亚洲正在从美国的最新冲突中得出三个初步结论。

1. Asia is far from the United States’ top priority.

1. 亚洲远非美国的最优先事项。

At a regional security conference in Singapore last year, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stressed that America would stay focused on the region.

去年在新加坡举行的地区安全会议上，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯强调，美国将继续专注于该地区。

“No one should doubt America’s commitment to our Indo-Pacific allies and partners,” he said. “We will continue to wrap our arms around our friends.”

“任何人都不应怀疑美国对印太盟友和伙伴的承诺，”他说。“我们将继续拥抱我们的朋友。”

Now that’s harder for many countries to believe — especially when the Middle East’s needs draw specialty equipment from an ally bordering North Korea, a rogue nuclear power.

现在，许多国家更难相信这一点——尤其是当中东的需求导致与朝鲜——一个持核流氓国家——接壤的盟国的针对性武器被抽调。

上周，德黑兰的储油库遭美以空袭后发生爆炸。

“Moving air defenses out of Korea sends a terrible signal at a time when there are already huge concerns in Seoul about the Trump administration’s shaky commitment to Asia,” said Ely Ratner, a former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs under President Biden.

“首尔本已经对特朗普政府在亚洲承诺上摇摆不定深感担忧，将防空系统调离韩国发出了可怕的信号，”前拜登政府印太安全事务助理国防部长伊利·拉特纳表示。

THAAD batteries (THAAD stands for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) are the apex defenders of the American arsenal. Each battery typically includes several truck-mounted launchers and precise radar systems that can crash interceptors into incoming fire at many altitudes. At least five such systems are in the Middle East. In Asia, THAAD launchers have been deployed to Guam and South Korea.

“萨德”（THAAD，全称为末段高空区域防御系统）是美国武器库中的顶尖防御者。一个萨德防空连通常包括多辆卡车搭载的发射器和精密雷达系统，能够在多种高度将拦截弹撞向来袭目标。中东至少有五套此类系统。在亚洲，“萨德”发射器已部署在关岛和韩国。

Mr. Ratner noted that after the THAAD was installed near Seoul in 2017, China retaliated with boycotts on South Korean products and bans on tourism to the country, arguing the system threatened Chinese security.

拉特纳指出，2017年“萨德”部署在首尔附近后，中国以抵制韩国产品和禁止赴韩旅游作为报复，称该系统威胁中国安全。

“And now,” Mr. Ratner added, “the U.S. is taking it away for a war in the Middle East.”

“而现在，”拉特纳说，“美国却为了中东的一场战争将其撤走。”

2. China will get a boost in influence and confidence.

2. 中国的影响力和信心将得到提升。

Economics and security stressors are intertwined. With oil prices spiking, Asia, a manufacturing powerhouse that gets most of its oil from the Middle East, is especially exposed.

经济和安全压力相互交织。随着油价飙升，作为制造业强国且大部分石油来自中东的亚洲尤为脆弱。

Its stock markets are showing steep declines. Gasoline rationing is hitting U.S. allies like the Philippines especially hard — and that gives Beijing an opening. China can use America’s seeming disregard for the region’s economic pain to argue (even more than usual) that China is the only reliable superpower.

其股市出现大幅下跌。汽油配给制对菲律宾等美国盟友打击尤为严重——这给了北京可乘之机。中国可以利用美国似乎对该地区经济痛苦的漠视，进一步（比以往更有力地）论证中国是唯一可靠的超级大国。

The war has given Chinese state media plenty of fodder for criticizing U.S. foreign policy. The state-run China Daily ran a cartoon on Tuesday that depicts Uncle Sam caught in a thick spider web. “U.S. mired in Middle East,” read the headline.

这场战争为中国官方媒体提供了大量抨击美国外交政策的素材。官方《中国日报》周二刊登了一幅漫画，描绘山姆大叔陷入厚厚的蜘蛛网中。标题为：“美国深陷中东。”

Diplomats in the region worry that the war’s demands give Beijing a freer hand for territorial assertiveness. While it has quieted its military flights around the democratic island of Taiwan, China’s maritime forces have stayed busy there and elsewhere.

该地区的外交官担心，战争需求让北京在领土问题上更加肆无忌惮。虽然中国已减少围绕民主岛屿台湾的军机飞行，但其海上力量在台湾及其他地区仍保持活跃。

中国人民解放军士兵，9月摄于北京。

Late last year, China resumed island-building in the Paracels off Vietnam’s coast in the South China Sea. Satellite imagery from the Open Source Centre showed dredging intensified in recent weeks, with nearly two dozen Chinese ships at Antelope Reef with cranes and construction equipment fashioning a new outpost.

去年底，中国在南海靠近越南海岸线的西沙群岛恢复岛礁建设。开源中心(Open Source Centre)的卫星图像显示，近几周吹填活动加剧，20艘左右的中国船只携带起重机和建筑设备在羚羊礁建造一座新的前哨。

Japan is also in a precarious position, sitting close to Taiwan and occupying islands that China also claims as its own. More than 90 percent of Japan’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. An economic crisis coupled with a military crisis is particularly worrisome to Tokyo.

日本靠近台湾，且占据着中国也声称拥有的岛屿，其处境也十分不妙。日本超过90%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。经济危机叠加军事危机，对东京而言尤为令人担忧。

“That would be a nightmare,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo.

“那将是一场噩梦，”东京笹川和平基金会高级研究员渡部恒雄表示。

“Japan recognizes that anything could happen under Mr. Trump,” he added. “We need to think about a worst-case scenario.”

“日本认识到，在特朗普先生任内，任何事都有可能发生，”他补充道。“我们需要考虑最坏的情况。”

3. Nations can’t rely on America for weapons.

3. 各国不能依赖美国提供武器。

The shifting of weapons and air defenses from the Indo-Pacific has revealed that the American war machine lacks depth, even more than many had expected.

从印太地区转移武器和防空系统暴露了美国战争机器的深度不足，甚至超出许多人的预期。

The military math makes many American partners shudder. Patriot interceptor missiles can cost nearly $4 million each. The United States produced about 600 of them in all of 2025. Some estimates suggest that more than 1,000 have already been used in less than two weeks of war.

这笔军事账让许多美国伙伴感到震惊。“爱国者”拦截导弹每枚成本近400万美元。美国在整个2025年仅生产约600枚。有些估计显示，在不到两周的战争中，已消耗超过1000枚。

The U.S. military has many other assets — American airstrikes are shifting toward cheaper, more plentiful bombs. And a deal made with Lockheed Martin in January aims to triple production of Patriot systems by 2030.

美国军方还有许多其他资产——美军空袭正转向更廉价、更充足的炸弹。今年1月与洛克希德·马丁公司达成的协议旨在到2030年将“爱国者”系统产量提高到原来的三倍。

But in many countries that agreed to increase military spending on American hardware at the urging of the Trump administration, the war in Iran feels like a flashing red light, warning that what they buy may not be delivered anytime soon.

许多国家应特朗普政府敦促增加了购买美国武器的开支，但它们看到，伊朗战争像是一盏闪烁的红灯，警告他们购买的武器可能短期内无法交付。

A Japanese government inquiry found in January that 118 orders for American weapons worth about $7.2 billion had not been delivered at least five years after contracts were signed.

日本政府1月的一项调查发现，价值约72亿美元的118笔美国武器订单在合同签订至少五年后仍未交付。

台湾军方去年在屏东进行了“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统的首次试射。

In Taiwan, there are worries that the war will make a bad situation worse, weakening deterrence from the United States because of munitions shortages, and making it harder for Taiwan’s government to justify a bigger defense budget to buy more American weapons.

在台湾，人们担心战争会让本已糟糕的局面雪上加霜，因弹药短缺削弱美国的威慑力，并使台湾政府更难向民众证明增加国防预算购买更多美国武器的合理性。

“It will inevitably affect shipments,” said Shu Hsiao-huang, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank backed by the defense ministry of Taiwan. “We have already experienced delays.”

“这将不可避免地影响交付，”台湾国防部支持的智库国防安全研究院研究员舒孝煌表示。“我们已经面临延误。”

Many countries will likely race to develop more military industrial capacity. Japan is developing its own long-range missile systems. South Korea secured U.S. approval in October to develop its first nuclear-powered attack submarines, which some experts have described as a step toward building nuclear weapons in the future.

许多国家很可能加速发展自身的军工产能。日本正在开发自己的远程导弹系统。韩国10月获得美国批准开发首艘核动力攻击潜艇，一些专家称这是向未来建造核武器迈出了一步。

Mr. Lee, South Korea’s president, said that the war shows a clear need for more self-reliance.

韩国总统李在明表示，这场战争凸显了加强自力更生的明确需求。

“If we rely on others, there are times when that dependence can collapse,” he said. “You always have to think about what you’re going to do if there’s no external support.”

“如果依赖他人，有时这种依赖会崩塌，”他说。“你必须始终思考，如果没有外部支持，你该怎么办。”

Asked for comment on the region’s concerns, the Pentagon responded with a brief email: “We have nothing to provide.”

当被问及对该地区担忧的评论时，五角大楼以一封简短邮件回复：“我们无可奉告。”

In San Francisco, there was little trace of the online vitriol that had been directed at Eileen Gu for weeks.

在旧金山，数周来针对谷爱琳的网络恶意攻击几乎看不到一丝痕迹。

Ms. Gu, the decorated Olympic freestyle skier, wore a wide smile as she sat atop a red convertible during the annual Chinese New Year parade last weekend, making hand hearts for the crowds, who returned the love to their hometown girl.

上周末，在一年一度的春节大游行中，这位屡获荣誉的奥运自由式滑雪选手笑容灿烂，坐在一辆红色敞篷车上，向人群比心，而民众也热情回应这个家乡的女孩。

Bells clanged. Parade-goers snapped photos. Teenagers tried to run alongside the car.

铃声叮当作响。游行观众纷纷拍照。青少年们跟在车旁奔跑。

“Welcome home, Eileen!” several supporters shouted in unison.

“欢迎回家，爱凌！”几名支持者齐声喊道。

Ordinarily, the celebration would have just been the latest party featuring a triumphant athlete. After all, Ms. Gu won three medals in freestyle skiing during the Winter Olympics last month.

通常情况下，这样的庆典不过是又一场为凯旋运动员举行的欢庆活动。毕竟，谷爱凌在上个月的冬奥会上斩获了三枚自由式滑雪奖牌。

But because she won those medals for China, America’s main geopolitical rival, Ms. Gu has been branded a “traitor” and “ungrateful” by conservatives online. The parade itself drew a new round of criticism for Ms. Gu and, to some degree, San Francisco, a liberal city often mocked by the right.

但由于她是代表中国站上领奖台，而中国是美国主要的地缘政治竞争对手，谷爱凌在网络上被保守派贴上了“叛徒”和“忘恩负义”的标签。这场游行本身也引发了对谷爱凌的新一轮批评，在一定程度上也波及了旧金山这座常被右翼嘲讽的自由派城市。

奥运自由式滑雪名将谷爱凌担任旧金山春节游行大礼官，受到现场观众的热烈欢呼。

The mixed reaction to Ms. Gu stands in contrast to the wider embrace for Alysa Liu, the figure skater who captured American hearts — and the gold medal — with her joyful performance competing for Team U.S.A. Ms. Liu, like Ms. Gu, was born in America, has a Chinese immigrant parent and lives in the Bay Area.

外界对谷爱凌的褒贬不一，与花滑选手刘美贤受到的广泛欢迎形成鲜明对比。刘美贤代表美国队参赛，凭借欢快动人的表现赢得了美国民众的心，并夺得金牌。和谷爱凌一样，刘美贤出生在美国，父母一方是华裔移民，也住在旧金山湾区。

Ms. Liu has been mobbed upon her return, to the point where she recently had to ask fans to give her space after someone chased her to her car. And every ticket has been claimed for a Thursday rally in her hometown, Oakland, where thousands are expected to attend and the event will be broadcast on local television.

刘美贤回国后被粉丝团团围住，甚至有人追到她的车旁，迫使她近日不得不请求粉丝给予私人空间。在她的家乡奥克兰，周四为她举办的欢迎集会门票已全部领完，预计将有数以千计的人参加，活动还将在当地电视台播出。

While Ms. Gu’s decision to compete for China became a lightning rod for the right, the divergent reactions to the two medalists have also spurred conversations among Chinese Americans about what it means to be an American in the current era.

谷爱凌代表中国参赛的决定成为右翼攻击的焦点，而两位奖牌得主所受待遇的巨大差异也在美国华裔群体中引发讨论：在当下这个时代，身为美国人究竟意味着什么。

Immigrants and their descendants have long tried to maintain connections to their heritage, no matter their family’s nation of origin, balancing those ties with pressures to assimilate and forge their own identities. For some Chinese Americans and scholars of Asian American history, the criticism of Ms. Gu has been deeply unsettling.

长期以来，移民及其后代无论来自哪个国家，都试图维系与祖籍文化的联系，在这些纽带与同化压力和塑造自我身份之间寻找平衡。对一些美国华裔和研究亚裔美国人历史的学者而言，针对谷爱凌的批评令人深感不安。

In a sports world where it is not uncommon for American athletes to compete for other countries, the intense focus on Ms. Gu reflects a view of Americanness that seems to offer little space for those who might have natural affinities for cultures or countries outside of the United States — especially when that country happens to be a geopolitical competitor like China.

在体坛，美国运动员代表其他国家参赛并不罕见，但对谷爱凌的高度关注反映出一种对美国人身份的理解，它几乎不给那些对美国以外文化或国家怀有天然亲近感的人留出空间——尤其是当这个国家恰好是中国这样的地缘政治竞争对手时。

In more than a dozen interviews, many Chinese Americans said they had ties to China and Chinese culture similar to those of Ms. Gu. She was raised by her mother and her maternal grandmother, both immigrants from China. She grew up visiting relatives in China. And she speaks Mandarin Chinese fluently — with a Beijing accent.

在十多次采访中，许多美国华裔表示，他们与中国和中国文化的联系与谷爱凌相似。她由母亲和姥姥抚养长大，两人都是来自中国的移民；她从小就常回中国探亲；能说一口流利的普通话，还带着北京口音。

谷爱凌上月代表中国参加冬奥会时，在自由式滑雪项目中斩获三枚奖牌。

Ms. Gu has said that she chose to represent China because she could inspire more young people there. While many Chinese Americans said they might not have made the same decision, they felt that competing for China seemed like a logical extension of her identity and did not make her any less of an American. And wasn’t part of being an American having the freedom of choice, anyway?

谷爱凌曾表示，她选择代表中国是因为这能激励更多中国年轻人。许多美国华裔说，他们或许不会做出同样的选择，但认为代表中国参赛是她身份认同的合理延伸，并不会让她变得不美国。更何况，拥有选择的自由不正是美国人精神的一部分吗？

“She is representing her background,” said Justin Chi, 36, a software engineer who grew up in Southern California.

“她只是在展现自己的背景，”36岁、在南加州长大的软件工程师贾斯汀·迟（音）说。

Kevin Leung, 51, an accountant in the Bay Area, saw a different motivation behind Ms. Gu’s decision, pointing to the millions of dollars she has made in sponsorships from Chinese companies and the Chinese government. Which, in some sense, he suggested, was also quintessentially American.

51岁的湾区会计师凯文·梁（音）则认为谷爱凌的决定背后有另一种动机：她从中国企业和中国政府那里获得了成百上千万美元的赞助收入。他表示，从某种意义上说，这同样是非常典型的美国做法。

“It’s her way to make money,” Mr. Leung said. “It’s capitalist.”

“这是她赚钱的方式，”凯文·梁说。“这就是资本主义。”

America has undergone vast demographic shifts in the past quarter-century. One in four children in America has at least one immigrant parent, compared with 13 percent about 25 years ago, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a research center in Washington.

过去25年间，美国人口结构发生了巨大变化。华盛顿研究机构移民政策研究所的数据显示，如今美国每四名儿童中就有一人至少有一位移民父母，约25年前，这一比例为13%。

In California, straddling cultures and countries is even more normal. The state is home to more than one-fifth of the country’s immigrants. Nearly half of children have an immigrant parent.

在加州，跨文化、跨国家的现象更为普遍。该州聚集了全美超过五分之一的移民人口，近一半儿童有移民父母。

Having a transnational identity is especially common among Chinese people, who constitute the largest Asian group in the country. And it is particularly resonant in the Bay Area, where Ms. Gu grew up and now resides as an undergraduate at Stanford University. While there are fifth-generation Chinese Americans in the Bay Area, there are also parts of San Francisco’s Chinatown where as many as 4 in 5 people were born abroad.

跨国身份认同在华裔群体中尤为普遍，华裔是美国最大的亚裔族群。这种现象在旧金山湾区尤为显著，谷爱凌正是在此成长，现就读于斯坦福大学本科。湾区有第五代华裔美国人，然而在旧金山唐人街这样的区，高达五分之四的居民出生于海外。

The city and its surrounding region have long been a hub for “astronaut families,” in which at least one parent shuttles back and forth to a job in Asia. Some second-generation Chinese Americans grew up visiting family and relatives in Asia each year.

旧金山及其周边地区长期以来都是“太空人家庭”的聚集地——父母中至少一方往返亚洲工作。一些二代华裔美国人从小每年都会回亚洲探亲。

美国花样滑冰运动员刘美贤在冬奥会上为美国赢得金牌，受到美国民众的广泛拥戴。她将于周四在加州奥克兰市举行的集会上接受庆祝。

Ms. Gu has often said, “When I’m in the U.S., I’m American, but when I’m in China, I’m Chinese.” Many people can relate.

谷爱凌常说：“我在美国时是美国人，在中国时是中国人。”很多人对此深有共鸣。

“It’s a feeling of not fully belonging in either place,” said Cleo Cao, 25, a tech consultant in the Bay Area who was among the thousands who attended the San Francisco parade.

“这是一种对两边都不完全归属的感觉，”25岁的湾区科技顾问克莱奥·曹（音）说，她是参加旧金山游行的数千人之一。

But plenty of Chinese Americans have criticized Ms. Gu’s decision to represent China, as well. They say that loyalty to America should come first, regardless of cultural affinities. They agree with Vice President JD Vance, who said that athletes who benefit from American education and freedoms should represent the United States.

但也有不少华裔美国人批评谷爱凌代表中国参赛的决定。他们认为，无论文化上有什么样的亲近感，对美国的忠诚都应放在首位。他们赞同副总统万斯的观点：受益于美国教育与自由的运动员，就应该代表美国。

Some in particular have highlighted Ms. Gu’s evasiveness in response to questions about the Chinese government’s human rights abuses and internet censorship, in contrast to her public comments on anti-Asian hate and racial justice in America.

有些人特别指出，谷爱凌在回答有关中国政府侵犯人权和网络审查的问题时报以回避态度，这与她在美国反亚裔仇恨和种族正义问题上的公开言论形成鲜明对比。

She also has consistently dodged questions about her nationality. China requires that its athletes hold a Chinese passport but it doesn’t allow dual citizenship.

她也一直回避有关国籍的问题。中国要求本国运动员持有中国护照，但不承认双重国籍。

“I don’t deny the sincerity of her connection with China,” said Xiao Qiang, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and a human-rights activist. “But I still find her actions troubling.”

“我不否认她与中国之间情感的真诚，”加州大学伯克利分校教授、人权活动家萧强说。“但我依然认为她的行为令人不安。”

Ms. Gu did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

谷爱凌没有回应多次置评请求。

For decades after the normalization of U.S.-China relations in 1979, ethnic Chinese scientists, businesspeople and athletes were celebrated by American leaders and universities as bridge builders. But over the last decade, as the U.S.-China relationship has grown frostier, those cultural and educational ties have frayed.

自1979年中美关系正常化后的几十年里，华裔科学家、商界人士和运动员曾被美国政界与高校誉为两国之间的桥梁建设者。但在过去十年，随着中美关系趋冷，这些文化与教育纽带逐渐磨损。

It did not go unnoticed by Chinese Americans that Zoe Atkin, another American-born Stanford student, won a bronze medal in freestyle skiing for Great Britain last month but did not attract the same rancor that Ms. Gu did.

美国华裔注意到一个现象：同样出生在美国、就读斯坦福大学的佐伊·阿特金上月代表英国获得自由式滑雪铜牌，却没有像谷爱凌那样招致如此激烈的敌意。

“This is another opportunity to attack China,” said Gordon H. Chang, a historian at Stanford University. “It’s more about Sinophobia than it is about Gu.”

“这不过是又一个攻击中国的机会，”斯坦福大学历史学家张少书说。“与其说与谷爱凌有关，不如说是和排华情绪有关。”

Back in San Francisco, the honor shown to Ms. Gu in the historic Chinese New Year parade carried a deeper symbolism, said Ellen Wu, an associate professor of history at Indiana University.

印第安纳大学历史学副教授艾伦·吴（音）指出，在旧金山历史悠久的春节游行中，对谷爱凌的礼遇有着更深层的象征意义。

More than 70 years ago, as the Red Scare was taking hold, the Chinatown organizers of the parade appointed a Chinese American combat veteran as the grand marshal and put up anti-Communist signs in an effort to display their sacrifices for the United States and combat suspicions of disloyalty.

70多年前，红色恐慌盛行之时，唐人街的游行组织者曾任命一位华裔参战老兵担任大游行司仪，并悬挂反共标语，以此彰显他们为美国做出的牺牲，消除外界对他们不忠的怀疑。

Generations later, Ms. Gu and her mother, Yan Gu, stepped forward on Saturday night to light the ceremonial firecrackers, kicking off the parade. Local politicians, including Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, then watched the procession from the grandstand. At the end of the route, Mayor Daniel Lurie helped Ms. Gu light more firecrackers.

几代人之后，上周六的晚上，谷爱凌和她的母亲谷燕登台点燃仪式性的鞭炮，为游行揭幕。包括前众议院议长南希·佩洛西在内的当地政界人士在观礼台上观看了游行。在游行终点，市长丹尼尔·卢里协助谷爱凌点燃了更多鞭炮。

“It doesn’t matter if you’re undocumented, or a political asylum seeker, or a student, or a foreign citizen. We don’t care,” said David Ho, who advises the Chinese Chamber of Commerce, which organizes the parade. “This is a Chinese New Year parade. Everyone needs to check their citizenship at the door.”

“无论你是无证移民、政治避难者、学生，还是外国公民，我们都不在乎，”为组织游行的中国商会担任顾问的戴维·何说。“这是春节大游行。所有人进场时都得把国籍身份抛开。”

Two oil tankers were attacked and left burning off the Iraqi coast on Thursday, the latest in a series of strikes during the Middle East war that have crippled the global energy sector.

周四，两艘油轮在伊拉克海岸附近遭到袭击并起火燃烧。这是中东战争期间一系列袭击中的最新一起，这些袭击已经严重冲击了全球能源行业。

Iran has taken responsibility for several of the strikes on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil output normally flows. Tehran has said that it would not allow oil shipments that benefit the United States and its allies to pass through the strait.

伊朗对波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡发生的多起商船遇袭事件负责。正常情况下，全球五分之一的石油产量经由此处运输。德黑兰表示，不会允许那些惠及美国及其盟友的石油运输通过该海峡。

Oil prices have surged to trade around $100 per barrel, forcing dozens of countries to release emergency reserves to stabilize their economies.

油价已飙升至每桶100美元左右，迫使数十个国家释放紧急石油储备以稳定经济。

The strikes on shipping have given Iran a strategic success, putting economic pressure on the United States and its allies even as Iran is under heavy attack. Tehran’s actions have also raised questions about whether the United States planned for a lengthy shutdown of the strait.

针对航运的袭击为伊朗带来了一项战略成果：即使在其自身遭受重创之际，仍对美国及其盟友施加了经济压力。德黑兰的行动也引发了疑问：美国是否为霍尔木兹海峡的长期关闭做好了准备。

“The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used,” said Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader.

“封锁霍尔木兹海峡这一杠杆必须继续加以运用，”伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊说。

What’s the latest?

最新情况如何？

On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility for attacking one of the two tankers off Iraq’s coast, saying the Marshall Islands-flagged ship had “disobeyed and ignored” warnings.

周四，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队声称对伊拉克海岸外两艘油轮中其中一艘的袭击负责，并表示这艘悬挂马绍尔群岛国旗的船只“违抗并无视”警告。

周四，两艘油轮在伊拉克附近海域起火，图为其中一艘。

A British naval monitoring group said that a third ship was struck by an unknown projectile near Dubai. Security concerns on Thursday also forced the closure of oil export terminals in Iraq and Oman.

英国的一个海事安全监测机构表示，还有第三艘船在迪拜附近被一枚不明射弹击中。周四的安全担忧还迫使伊拉克和阿曼的石油出口码头关闭。

In all, more than a dozen shipping vessels have been struck since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February.

自2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，已有超过十艘航运船只遭到袭击。

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

为何霍尔木兹海峡如此重要？

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the broader Indian Ocean. It is the only sea route that can move oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s coastline runs along both the strait and the gulf.

霍尔木兹海峡是一条具有战略意义的水道，连接波斯湾与阿曼湾以及更广阔的印度洋。它是将石油、天然气和其他货物从波斯湾运往外界的唯一海上通道。伊朗的海岸线沿着霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾延伸。

At the strait’s narrowest point — between Iran to the north and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula to the south — the navigable channel is about two miles wide each for inbound and outbound traffic, according to the International Energy Agency.

根据国际能源署的数据，在海峡最狭窄处——北侧是伊朗，南侧是阿曼的穆桑代姆半岛——进出航道的宽度各约3.2公里。

In normal times, about 20 percent of global oil and liquid natural gas passes through the strait. Most of the fossil fuels are bound for Asia, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea.

在正常情况下，全球约20%的石油和液化天然气经过该海峡。大部分化石燃料运往亚洲，特别是中国、印度、日本和韩国。

穿越海峡的油气运输船舶航线。注：包括自1月1日至3月2日所有油轮和天然气运输船。来源：Kpler。

Other large vessels also normally go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. Crucial industrial goods — including helium from Qatar, fertilizer from Oman and Saudi Arabia and plastic feedstocks from Saudi Arabia and Emirati petrochemical plants — also travel through Hormuz.

除了能源运输外，其他大型船只通常也会经过这条海峡，包括汽车运输船和集装箱船。一些关键工业产品——例如卡塔尔的氦气、阿曼和沙特的化肥，以及来自沙特和阿联酋石化厂的塑料原料——也通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。

How is Iran choking off traffic?

伊朗是如何“掐住”航道通行的？

Iran’s military currently has a strategic advantage in the Persian Gulf and the strait, with the ability to threaten shipping traffic, even after much of its navy has been destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes.

伊朗军队目前在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡拥有战略优势，有能力威胁航运交通——即便其海军大部分力量已被美以空袭摧毁。

周三，一艘阿联酋海军舰艇在霍尔木兹海峡为货船和油轮护航。

Projectiles: Since the war began, at least a dozen cargo vessels and oil tankers have been hit in the Gulf and the strait. Iran has taken responsibility for several of them. It’s not entirely clear what type of weapons it used, but Iran’s military has deployed a wide array of missiles and drones during the conflict.

射弹：自战争爆发以来，至少十余艘货船和油轮在海湾及海峡地区遭袭。伊朗已对其中多起袭击负责。目前尚不完全清楚其使用的武器类型，但伊朗军队在冲突中动用了种类繁多的导弹和无人机。

Mines: The next stage of the fighting may involve naval mines, explosives that are often no bigger than a beach ball which can still sink large vessels. On Thursday, Iran started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials.

水雷：
战斗的下一阶段可能涉及水雷。这些爆炸装置往往只有沙滩球大小，却足以击沉大型船只。美国官员表示，伊朗周四已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷。

The U.S. has destroyed dozens of larger Iranian mine-laying vessels, but Iran used smaller boats — of which the I.R.G.C. has hundreds, if not thousands — for the mining operation, a U.S. official said.

美国此前摧毁了数十艘较大的伊朗布雷舰，但一名美国官员表示，伊朗在此次布雷行动中使用的是更小型的船只——伊斯兰革命卫队拥有数百甚至上千艘这种船。

On Thursday, the U.S. military said it had damaged or destroyed over 30 mine-laying vessels since the war began. It is not clear whether any Iranian mines have actually been deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.

周四，美军方表示自开战以来已击毁或击沉超过30艘伊朗布雷船。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否真的已经在霍尔木兹海峡布设了水雷。

Insurance: After a relatively small number of strikes, the cost of insuring a vessel to go through the strait has soared, making it prohibitively expensive. President Trump has said the U.S. government may provide affordable insurance coverage, but experts are dubious. One analyst estimated the potential cost could be more than $300 billion.

保险：在发生几次袭击之后，通过该海峡航行的船舶保险费已经大幅上涨，高到几乎难以承受。特朗普总统表示，美国政府可能会提供较为低廉的保险保障，但专家对此持怀疑态度。有分析师估计，潜在成本可能超过3000亿美元。

Iran’s own tankers: For years, the common wisdom among military analysts was that Iran would not close the strait because it needed to export its own oil. But shipping analysts say that in recent days, Iran has been loading oil and exporting it through the strait, letting its own ships through even as it threatens and attacks others.

伊朗自己的油轮：多年来，军事分析界普遍认为伊朗不会封锁该海峡，因为它自身也需要通过这里出口石油。但航运分析人士表示，最近几天伊朗仍在装载石油并通过海峡出口，让本国船只通行的同时，却威胁、袭击他国船只。

Since March 1, at least 10 tankers and gas carriers have left Iran and transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a shipping analysis firm.

据航运分析公司劳氏海事数据，自3月1日以来，至少10艘油轮和液化气船离开伊朗并穿越了霍尔木兹海峡。

How is it affecting energy prices around the world?

这对全球能源价格造成了什么影响？

The war in the Middle East has caused the “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

国际能源署周四表示，中东战争已造成“全球石油市场历史上最严重的供应中断”。

In the United States, gasoline prices rose by about 20 percent. In Europe, the price of natural gas surged more than 43 percent, and diesel prices doubled. Asia, which receives roughly 70 percent of all crude shipped through Hormuz, absorbed the worst of the supply shock, forcing countries like Pakistan to move to a four-day workweek to conserve fuel.

在美国，汽油价格上涨了大约20%。在欧洲，天然气价格飙升超过43%，柴油价格翻了一番。亚洲承受了最严重的供应冲击——大约70%通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油都流向亚洲，这迫使像巴基斯坦这样的国家实行每周四天工作制，以节约燃料。

In response, the 32 member states of the I.E.A. agreed this week to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, the most ever. But the move did not bring oil prices down: The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed briefly back above $100 a barrel on Thursday, about $30 higher than it was before the war began.

作为回应，国际能源署32个成员国本周同意从战略储备中释放4亿桶石油，规模为历史之最。但这一举措并没有让油价下降：全球基准布伦特原油价格周四短暂回升至每桶100美元上方，较战前高出约30美元。

Higher energy prices have rippled across the global economy, stoking inflation and threatening countries around the world.

能源价格上涨的涟漪效应波及全球经济，加剧通货膨胀，并给世界各国造成威胁。

Mr. Trump has touted the “energy dominance” of the United States, which is the world’s biggest oil producer. But oil is a globally priced commodity, so higher crude prices translate into higher prices at U.S. gas stations, regardless of how much oil the U.S. produces domestically.

特朗普一直强调美国的“能源主导地位”，因为美国是世界最大的石油生产国。但石油是一种全球定价的商品，因此无论美国国内生产多少石油，原油价格上涨都会转化为美国加油站油价的攀升。

Bombs are exploding in Iran and the Middle East, but the fallout is rattling households and businesses in neighborhoods all over the globe.

炸弹在伊朗和中东地区爆炸，但其后果正冲击着全球各地的家庭和企业。

In Kansas, home buyers saw 30-year mortgage rates edge above 6 percent this week. In Western India, families mourning the death of a loved one discovered that gas-fired crematories had been temporarily closed.

在堪萨斯州，购房者看到30年期抵押贷款利率本周突破了6%。在印度西部，悼念亲人的家属发现，使用燃气焚化炉的火葬场暂时关闭。

In Hanoi, Vietnam, gas station owners posted “sold out” signs. In Kenya, tea growers and traders worried their exports to Iran would rot on the dock. And across the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Mexico, farmers blanched at the surge in fertilizer costs.

在越南河内，加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。在肯尼亚，茶叶种植者和贸易商担心，他们出口到伊朗的货物会烂在码头上。而在美国、加拿大、欧洲、英国和墨西哥，化肥成本的飙升让农民们大惊失色。

The widening war in Iran has delivered a stunning punch to a worldwide economy that has already been walloped by a breakdown of the international trading order, war in Ukraine and President Trump’s chaotic policymaking.

全球经济本已因国际贸易秩序崩溃、乌克兰战争以及特朗普总统混乱的政策制定而备受冲击，这场愈演愈烈的伊朗战争成为又一次沉重的打击。

“This really is the big one,” David Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and U.S. Energy Department official, said of the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important choke point for oil. It is the emergency scenario everyone feared, he said.

“这可是个大问题了，”前美国外交官、美国能源部官员大卫·戈德温在谈到霍尔木兹海峡关闭时表示，那是全球最重要的石油输运咽喉。他说，这是每个人都担心的危急情况。

肯尼亚的茶叶种植者，那里的贸易商担心他们的出口产品无法到达目的地。

Cargo deliveries have been stranded, shipping charges have increased and insurance premiums have skyrocketed. Yes, the price of gas at the pump is affected. But so is the price of food, medicine, airplane tickets, electricity, cooking oil, semiconductors and more.

货物运输陷入停滞，航运费用增加，保险费也随之飙升。是的，加油站的汽油价格受到了影响，但食品、药品、飞机票、电力、食用油、半导体等等的价格同样如此。

A drawn-out war between the United States and Iran could have “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil market and the global economy, Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil and gas company, warned this week.

全球最大石油和天然气公司沙特阿美的首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔本周警告称，美国与伊朗之间长期的战争可能给世界石油市场和全球经济带来“灾难性后果”。

Yet even if the war, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel struck Iran, wraps up relatively quickly, this latest upheaval is sending consumers, workers and employers on another unnerving and unpredictable ride.

然而，即便始于2月28日美以袭击伊朗的战争能相对较快地结束，这场最新的动荡也正将消费者、工人、雇主推入又一个令人不安且不可预测的境地。

It’s not just that small business owners and corporate executives must once again re-evaluate their supply chains, manage additional price increases and track shifting restrictions on who they can do business with. Or that the added uncertainty undermines confidence, making consumers reluctant to spend and businesses reluctant to invest.

这不仅仅是因为小企业主和企业高管必须再次重新评估其供应链，应对额外的价格上涨，并跟踪针对贸易对象不断变化的限制措施；也不仅仅是因为不确定性的增加削弱了信心，使消费者不愿支出，企业不愿投资。

It’s that this remapping of power dynamics in the Middle East could set off a string of consequences whose full force might not be known for months or years.

而是因为这种中东权力格局的重构可能会引发一系列连锁反应，其全面影响可能在数月或数年后才会显现。

Meg Jacobs, the author of “Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s,” pointed out that prices didn’t immediately go back down after the oil embargo in 1973 and 1974. They remained high for the rest of the decade.

《加油站恐慌：能源危机与20世纪70年代美国政治转型》(Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s)一书的作者梅格·雅各布斯指出，在1973年和1974年的石油禁运之后，物价并未立即回落，而是在那十年的余下时间里一直处于高位。

The supply situation is completely different today, with many more producers, Ms. Jacobs emphasized. But the crisis that the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries created with its embargo set off a chain of events that these oil producers never envisioned.

雅各布斯强调，今天的供应状况已完全不同，生产商要多得多。但阿拉伯石油输出国组织通过禁运创造的危机，引发了一系列这些石油生产商从未预料到的事件。

越南加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。

The oil shock prompted other countries, most significantly the United States, to conserve energy and develop fuel-efficient cars and their own oil and natural gas industries. Ultimately, the Arab countries’ monopolistic stranglehold was broken. Oil prices ended up collapsing in 1986.

石油危机促使其他国家（最显著的是美国）节约能源，开发燃油效率高的汽车，并发展自己的石油和天然气工业。最终，阿拉伯国家的垄断性钳制被打破，石油价格最终在1986年崩盘。

Today’s actions in Iran and the surrounding region may similarly have consequences that are both unexpected and far-reaching.

今天在伊朗及周边地区的行动可能同样会产生出人意料的深远影响。

Ms. Jacobs, for example, pointed to the likelihood of an emboldened and strengthened Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. This week Mr. Trump eased some of the restrictions on Russian oil exports that had been imposed to pressure Mr. Putin over the war in Ukraine.

例如，雅各布斯指出，俄罗斯总统普京可能会因此变得更加大胆，力量也得到增强。本周，特朗普放宽了对俄罗斯石油出口的部分限制，这些限制此前是为了在乌克兰战争问题上向普京施压而实施的。

Higher oil prices will boost Russia’s beleaguered economy and war machine. And Mr. Putin has taken the opportunity to taunt European leaders who supported sanctions on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

走高的油价将提振俄罗斯陷入困境的经济和战争机器。普京也借此机会嘲讽了那些在乌克兰战争爆发后支持对俄能源制裁的欧洲领导人。

The crisis is also a potent reminder of the persistent vulnerabilities around critical supply chains. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine caused national leaders all over the world to talk about the need to prioritize resilience and security.

这场危机还敲响了警钟，提醒人们关键供应链依然存在持续的脆弱性。新冠肺炎疫情和乌克兰战争曾促使世界各地的国家领导人讨论优先考虑韧性和安全的必要性。

The U.S.- Israeli war in Iran, though, once again highlights how disruptions in the global trading system can still inflict severe economic pain.

然而，美以在伊朗进行的战争再次凸显了全球贸易体系的紊乱仍能造成严重的经济创伤。

西班牙和其他国家的农民正努力应对化肥成本的飙升。

Europeans only recently dug out of their deep dependency on Russian gas and oil. For them, the timing of this energy squeeze could hardly be worse. Producers, still reeling from the impact of the tariffs, must now contend with higher energy costs. That will be a blow to countries like Germany with large, energy-hungry chemical, pharmaceutical and auto industries.

欧洲人直到最近才摆脱对俄罗斯天然气和石油的深度依赖。对他们来说，这次能源紧缩正值一个不能更糟的时刻。仍在承受关税冲击的生产商现在必须应对更高的能源成本。这对德国等拥有大型、高能耗化工、制药和汽车行业的国家将是一个打击。

With gas storage at low levels, there’s also likely to be some “panic refilling” in Europe that could push against price drops over the next six months or so, Mr. Goldwyn, the former energy department official, said.

前能源部官员戈德温表示，由于天然气储量处于低水平，欧洲可能会出现某种“恐慌性补库存”，这可能会阻碍未来六个月左右的价格下跌。

Rising oil prices do have the potential to increase interest in alternative energy sources like solar, wind and nuclear power, Mr. Goldwyn added.

戈德温还说，油价上涨确实有可能增加人们对太阳能、风能和核能等替代能源的兴趣。

Political support, though, is critical to developing any of these resources. And at least in the United States, Mr. Trump’s hostility to renewable energy remains fierce.

然而，政治支持对于开发任何此类资源都至关重要。至少在美国，特朗普对可再生能源的敌意依然强烈。

Asian economies are even more exposed. They, too, are dependent on energy imports. In addition, poor and middle-income countries are subject to the vagaries of currency exchange rates. And when the dollar or euro strengthens, all their imports suddenly become more expensive.

亚洲经济体面临的风险甚至更大。他们同样依赖能源进口。此外，贫困和中等收入国家还受制于汇率的反复无常。当美元或欧元走强时，他们所有的进口商品突然间都会变得更加昂贵。

Central bankers around the world face a difficult combination of circumstances. The United States has a stronger economy than many other countries. Nonetheless, its Federal Reserve confronts the same questions that are confounding other central bankers. Do they raise interest rates to head off a revival of inflation as energy prices spike, or lower rates as labor markets are weakening and growth is slowing?

全球各地央行面临着极其复杂的处境。美国的经济比许多其他国家都要强。尽管如此，美联储也面临着令其他央行行长困惑的同样问题：是该在能源价格飙升时加息以遏制通胀复苏，还是在劳动力市场疲软、增长放缓时降息？

Elevated rates will also keep borrowing costs high at a time when rich and poor countries are facing record levels of debt. That means more money that might have been used for health care, roads, housing or education instead will go to interest payments on debt.

持续的高利率也将使借贷成本维持在高位，而此时无论贫富国家都面临着创纪录的债务水平。这意味着本可以用于医疗、道路、住房或教育的更多资金将转而用于支付债务利息。

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at the Dutch bank ING, noted that tech companies, especially those specializing in artificial intelligence, are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. A small handful of these companies have been the main drivers of growth in the U.S. economy — not to mention lofty stock valuations. “It could lead to the sharp correction in stock markets,” he said.

荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基指出，科技公司，尤其是那些专注于人工智能的公司，对利率变化高度敏感。少数几家此类公司一直是美国经济增长的主要驱动力，更不用说高昂的股票估值了。“这可能导致股市出现剧烈调整，”他说。

Mr. Trump’s rationale for the attacks and his objectives have shifted from one day to the next. But the decision to wage war on Iran undercuts the recently popular idea that the world was neatly breaking down into great power spheres of influence.

特朗普对攻击伊朗给出的理由及其目标每天都在变化。但发动对伊战争的决定削弱了近期流行的观点——即世界正在整齐地划分为大国势力范围。

Mr. Trump’s toppling of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, seizure of its oil and declaration of a “Donroe Doctrine” staked a claim for hegemony in North and South America.

特朗普推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗、夺取该国石油并宣告“唐罗主义”的到来，体现了他在南北美洲建立霸权的野心。

But the war in Iran shows that Mr. Trump still sees the United States as a superpower with global reach and global interests. And that he is willing to use military force to achieve both political and economic aims.

但伊朗战争表明，特朗普仍将美国视为拥有全球影响力且涉及全球利益的超级大国。而且他愿意利用武力手段来达成政治和经济双重目的。

“And that matters for the economy,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, as Washington moves to increasingly direct the flow of goods, services and money around the globe.

“这对经济至关重要，”凯投宏观集团(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔·希尔林表示，因为华盛顿正日益加强对全球商品、服务和资金流动的直接管控。

Since China’s leader, Xi Jinping, rose to power more than a decade ago, the ruling Communist Party has worked aggressively to make ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, Tibet and elsewhere in the country identify first and foremost as patriotic citizens.

自中国领导人习近平十多年前上台以来，执政的共产党一直积极致力于推动新疆、西藏及国内其他地区的少数民族首先将自己认同为爱国公民。

Now, this campaign of assimilation has been codified into an expansive new law that makes “ethnic unity” the responsibility of all of society, including every level of the government, business owners and parents.

如今，这场同化运动已被纳入一项内容广泛的新法律，将“民族团结”确立为全社会的责任，将各级政府、企业主和父母都包括在内。

The law, which was approved at the close of China’s legislative meeting on Thursday, has wide-ranging provisions that touch on education, housing policy, entertainment and other areas. It embodies Mr. Xi’s mission to forge a single national identity molded by the party — seen as a way to protect Beijing’s rule from threats at home and abroad.

该法律于周四在中国立法会议结束时通过，其条款范围广泛，涉及教育、住房政策、娱乐及其他领域。它承载了习近平构建由党打造单一国家认同的使命，被视为保护北京统治，抵御国内外威胁的手段。

While Beijing says the law will protect the traditions of all officially recognized 56 ethnic groups, a main focus appears to be assimilating minority residents into the culture of the Han Chinese, who are the majority. It orders that Mandarin Chinese be the language of instruction in schools and in official communication. (In government communication when both languages are used, Mandarin should be used first and displayed more prominently.)

尽管北京表示该法将保护所有官方认可的56个民族的传统，但其主要焦点似乎是将少数民族居民同化到占人口多数的汉族文化中。法律规定，普通话应作为学校教学和官方沟通的语言。（在同时使用两种语言的官方用语中，应当在位置、顺序等方面突出普通话。）

Under the new law, the authorities must guide citizens to have “correct views” on history, culture and religion and shed “outdated customs.” It also requires parents to “educate and guide children to love the Chinese Communist Party.” The law makes it illegal for anyone to oppose a marriage on ethnic or religious grounds and also calls for minority residents to live in mixed communities.

根据新法律，当局必须引导公民树立“正确”的历史观、文化观和宗教观，并推动“移风易俗”。法律还要求家长“教育和引导未成年人热爱中国共产党”。该法规定，任何人以民族或宗教原因为由反对婚姻均为非法，并呼吁少数民族居民居住在混合社区。

2021年，新疆一所学校的音乐课，当时正值政府组织外国记者进行考察访问。

According to James Leibold, a professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne who focuses on China’s ethnic policies, the law marks the final “legal capstone” in Mr. Xi’s hard-line approach toward the country’s hinterlands like Xinjiang and Tibet, where demands for greater autonomy have in the past erupted into protests and violence.

墨尔本拉筹伯大学关注中国民族政策的教授雷国俊(James Leibold)认为，这部法律标志着习近平对新疆和西藏等边疆地区采取强硬手段的最终“法律顶峰”。 这些地区过去曾因要求更大自治权而爆发抗议和暴力事件。

In those regions, government measures — which have included mass detentions of residents, forced political indoctrination, the separation of children from their families and suppressing population growth — have led to the erasure of minority languages, religious traditions and cultural norms, he said.

雷国俊表示，在这些地区，政府的措施——包括大规模拘禁居民、强制政治灌输、将儿童与家人分离以及抑制人口增长——已经导致了少数民族语言、宗教传统和文化规范遭到抹杀。

The ethnic unity law is now “mobilizing all aspects of the party, state and society to forge a single national consciousness,” Dr. Leibold said. “In Xi’s China, there is very little room left for diversity of culture, language, identity, or even thought.”

民族团结法正在“调动党、国家和社会的所有方面来锻造单一的国家意识，”雷国俊说。“在习近平统治下的中国，几乎没有给文化、语言、身份甚至思想的多样性留下空间。”

Even before Mr. Xi came to power, Chinese officials and intellectuals were debating whether decades of granting limited autonomy to minority regions had gone too far. After a string of attacks by Uyghurs — including in 2014 when a group armed with knives killed 31 people at a train station in the southwestern city of Kunming — Mr. Xi oversaw an intense security crackdown and a shift in the party’s ethnic policies.

早在习近平上台之前，中国的官员和知识分子就在辩论，几十年来给予少数民族地区有限自治权的政策是否走得太远。在一系列由维吾尔人发起的袭击后——包括2014年一群持刀袭击者在西南城市昆明的火车站杀害31人的事件——习近平主持了严厉的安全镇压，并转变了党的民族政策。

Officials restricted the use of minority languages in schools in Xinjiang and Tibet and other places where minority students had previously been able to choose their language of instruction. Until 2020, students in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region between China and Mongolia, could study mostly in Mongolian. The ban caused widespread protests that were quickly put down.

官员们限制了新疆、西藏等少数民族地区学校使用少数民族语言的权利，此前这些地区的少数民族学生可自主选择教学语言。直到2020年，位于中国与蒙古交界处的内蒙古自治区学生仍主要使用蒙古语学习。该禁令引发了广泛抗议，但很快被镇压。

上周全国人民代表大会期间，西藏代表团在会议上。

The new law formalizes and applies that language policy across the country. It also mandates that children must start learning the language before kindergarten, with the goal of having a “basic grasp” of it by the time they finish the nine years of compulsory education.

新法律使这种语言政策正式化，并在全国范围内推行。它还强制要求儿童在幼儿园之前就开始学习普通话，目标是在完成九年义务教育时能达到“基本掌握”水平。

The law, which requires local governments to support minority workers and students when they move elsewhere in China, is likely to accelerate official efforts to promote migration into and out of minority regions, which some experts see as diluting minority culture. The goal is to bind China’s minorities to the majority population, a relationship Mr. Xi has likened to that of a tree and its branches, where Chinese culture is the trunk and each ethnic group is a branch.

该法律要求地方政府支持少数民族务工者或学生搬迁到中国其他地方。这可能会加速官方推动少数民族地区人口的迁入与迁出，一些专家认为这会稀释少数民族文化。其目标是将中国的少数民族与多数民族捆绑在一起，习近平曾将这种关系比作树干与树枝：中华文化是主干，各民族文化是枝叶。

Beijing is focused on the “contact, exchange and blending” of different ethnic groups, according to Aaron Glasserman, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania who researches ethnic policy in China.

宾夕法尼亚大学研究中国民族政策的博士后学者亚伦·格拉斯曼表示，北京关注的是不同民族之间的“交往、交流、交融”。

“Xi’s preferred metaphor for China’s minorities is telling. He says they should be ‘packed tightly together like pomegranate seeds.’ That is, small, similar and red,” he said.

他说：“习近平对少数民族的比喻颇具深意。他说各民族应该‘像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一起’。也就是说：小巧、相似，而且是红色的。”

中国额尔古纳市靠近俄罗斯边境处，一座石榴雕塑矗立于此。其后镌刻着习近平的箴言：“促进各民族像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一起。”

Dr. Glasserman said the new law demonstrates the government’s confidence in its methods in Xinjiang and Tibet, despite criticism from international rights groups. It also empowers the authorities to pursue groups and people outside of China seen as undermining national unity or inciting ethnic division.

格拉斯曼说，尽管国际人权组织提出批评，新法律仍彰显了政府对其在新疆和西藏治理方式的信心。该法还赋予当局权力，可追查被视为破坏国家统一或煽动民族分裂的中国境外团体及个人。

Chinese officials last year pressured a museum in Thailand to remove the names and works of four Uyghur, Tibetan and Hong Kong artists. The police last year detained an overseas Chinese student advocating for Tibetans, Tara Zhang Yadi, on suspicion of separatism, according to a group advocating for her release.

去年，中国官员向泰国的一家博物馆施压，要求撤下四名维吾尔、藏族和香港艺术家的名字及作品。警方去年以涉嫌分裂国家罪逮捕了一名支持西藏的海外中国留学生张雅笛，消息由一个倡导释放她的组织提供。

“Now the Chinese government is demanding this ideological uniformity not only within its territory but also abroad,” said Yalkun Uluyol, a China researcher at Human Rights Watch. “That is what you call transnational repression.”

“现在中国政府不仅要求境内思想的统一，还将这种要求延伸到境外，”人权观察组织的中国研究员亚力坤·乌鲁尧勒表示。“这就是所谓的跨国镇压。”

The Trump administration is expected to initiate a sweeping trade investigation as soon as Thursday that will target dozens of countries over their policies toward the trade in goods made with forced labor.

特朗普政府最早可能于周四启动一项广泛的贸易调查，矛头将指向数十个国家，涉及这些国家对使用强迫劳动生产的商品方面的贸易政策。

The inquiry is part of an effort by the Trump administration to resurrect a global system of tariffs after President Trump’s first attempt was struck down by the Supreme Court last month. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced another major trade investigation that could lead to tariffs, focusing on excess production in the factory sectors of 16 major trading partners.

这项调查是特朗普政府试图恢复一套全球关税体系的一部分。上个月，特朗普最初推动的关税方案被最高法院否决。周三，特朗普政府宣布了另一项可能导致加征关税的重大贸易调查，重点针对16个主要贸易伙伴制造业领域的产能过剩问题。

The United States has banned imports of goods made with forced labor for nearly a century. Under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the United States passed a law that greatly expanded that scope. The United States forbids the import of any goods from the Xinjiang region of China, where accusations of forced labor have been rampant, unless importers provide documentation that their goods were made without it.

美国禁止进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品已有近一个世纪的历史。在拜登执政期间，美国通过了一项法律，大幅扩大了这一禁令的范围。美国禁止进口来自中国新疆地区的任何商品——该地区长期被指存在强迫劳动问题——除非进口商能够提供文件证明这些商品并非由强迫劳动生产。

The trade agreements that the Trump administration has forged with dozens of countries in recent months have also forced other countries to make commitments not to import goods made with forced labor.

特朗普政府近几个月与数十个国家达成的贸易协议也迫使其他国家承诺不进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品。

Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said on Wednesday that the forced labor investigation would cover 60 countries and focus on the laws countries use to regulate the trade of goods made with forced labor, not their domestic situations.

美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周三表示，强迫劳动调查将涵盖60个国家，重点关注各国用于监管强迫劳动商品贸易的法律，而不是这些国家国内的具体情况。

He said that the U.S. government had enforced its ban on forced labor goods “quite effectively.” He added, “we expect other trading partners to take this approach as well.”

他表示，美国政府“相当有效地”执行了强迫劳动商品禁令。他还说：“我们期望其他贸易伙伴也采取这种做法。”

The investigation is one of several that the Office of the United States Trade Representative is pursuing in an effort to set up a durable system of global tariffs by this summer. The administration has also proposed potential investigations into digital services taxes, pharmaceutical pricing and unfair trade in sectors like rice and seafood.

这项调查是美国贸易代表办公室正在推进的多项调查之一，目的是在今年夏天前建立一套更为持久的全球关税体系。政府还提出，可能就数字服务税、药品定价，以及大米和海产品等领域的不公平贸易展开调查。

The investigations are being carried out under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law that allows the United States to impose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices.

这些调查依据《1974年贸易法》第301条款进行，该法允许美国针对不公平贸易行为征收关税。

Administration officials have not clarified how high the new levies could be, or how the patchwork of investigations would apply to each country. They have said they would try to replicate their previous tariff structure, which was struck down after the Supreme Court ruled in February that Mr. Trump was not justified in using an emergency law to impose the tariffs.

政府官员尚未说明新关税可能有多高，也没有解释这一系列调查将如何具体适用于各个国家。他们表示，希望尽量复制此前的关税结构——但那一套关税在今年2月被最高法院否决，因为法院裁定特朗普无权以紧急法为依据实施这些关税。

Immediately after the ruling, Mr. Trump issued a new 10 percent global tariff under a different legal authority. He has threatened to increase those tariffs to 15 percent, but that has not yet gone into effect. But that tariff is time-limited, and is set to expire in July unless Congress votes to renew it.

裁决后，特朗普立即根据另一项法律授权，宣布对全球征收10%的新关税。他曾威胁要将这些关税提高至15%，但尚未实施。然而，这项关税是有时限的，除非国会投票延长，否则将于今年7月到期。

The new Section 301 investigations are likely to be much more durable, though the administration is required to carry out an investigation and hearings before they can be imposed.

新的301条款调查可能会持久得多，不过政府需要在征收关税前进行调查和举行听证会。

The new raft of investigations has caused frustration and angst among some trading partners, who are wondering how their businesses and economies will ultimately be affected. The executive arm of the European Union, which was included in the “excess capacity” investigation announced Wednesday, said on Thursday that it was seeking clarity on how the moves would affect the trade deal it had made with the United States.

这一系列新的调查已经引起一些贸易伙伴的不满和担忧，他们不清楚自己的企业和经济最终会受到怎样的影响。周三被列入“产能过剩”调查的欧盟执行机构周四表示，对于这些举措将如何影响其与美国达成的贸易协议，他们正在寻求澄清。

“We can only reiterate our expectation that the U.S. fully honor its commitments reflected in the E.U.-U.S. joint statement on this topic,” said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, the E.U. executive arm. He said that the European Union “would respond firmly and proportionately” to any breach of those commitments.

“我们只能再次重申我们的期望，即美国完全履行其在欧盟-美国联合声明中就这一问题所作的承诺，”欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会的发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示。他说，欧盟将对任何违反这些承诺的行为“作出坚定且相称的反应”。

He added that the European Union was a market-driven economy that did not consider itself a contributor to excess capacity, an issue that economists and policymakers typically link with China. Like the United States, the European Union has been struggling to cope with a flood of cheap Chinese cars and other exports.

他还表示，欧盟是市场驱动型经济体，不认为自己是造成产能过剩的因素——这一问题通常被经济学家和政策制定者与中国联系在一起。与美国一样，欧盟一直在努力应对大量廉价中国汽车和其他出口产品的冲击。

“The European Union shares the United States’ concern regarding structural overcapacity in the global economy,” Mr. Gill said. “However, the sources of such overcapacity are well identified, and they do not lie in Europe.”

“欧盟与美国一样，对全球经济中的结构性产能过剩感到担忧，”吉尔表示。“但造成这种产能过剩的来源是明确的，而这些来源并不在欧洲。”

In remarks to reporters Wednesday, Mr. Greer was unsympathetic, saying that the European Union had done “approximately zero percent” of what it was supposed to do to finalize its trade deal with the United States. He said that the European Union had legislation pending that would make promised changes to their tariffs for many months, and that there were a variety of other trade barriers where Europe had not taken action.

格里尔周三对记者发表讲话时并未表现出同情，他表示欧盟在完成与美国的贸易协定方面，其应做的工作只完成了“大约百分之零”。他说，欧盟有待通过的立法将使承诺的关税调整拖延数月之久，而且欧洲在其他各种贸易壁垒问题上也未采取行动。

“We’re still waiting for Europe to do a lot of what it promised,” he said.

“我们仍在等待欧洲履行其承诺的许多事项，”他说。

The investigations are also likely to rankle Chinese officials, who are busily preparing for Mr. Trump to travel to Beijing at the end of the month for a meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

这些调查可能也会激怒中国官员，他们正在忙着为特朗普月底前往北京与中国领导人习近平会晤做准备。

In a news conference on Thursday, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that China opposed unilateral tariffs and other restrictions. He called “overcapacity” a false premise and a “pretext for political manipulation.”

在周四的新闻发布会上，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，中国反对单边关税和其他限制措施。他称所谓的“产能过剩”是一个伪命题，是“政治操弄的借口”。

While some organizations that support domestic manufacturing and tariffs have praised the administration’s new investigations, others that depend on global supply chains expressed concern.

虽然一些支持国内制造业和关税的组织对政府的新调查表示赞赏，但那些依赖全球供应链的组织则表达了担忧。

Stephen Lamar, the president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, said that his group was discouraged by the proposed tariffs and that the administration should slow down and work with various stakeholders, including Congress. He likened the process to the administration trying to “glue together shattered glass in a messy fix that risks American businesses and consumers left holding the sharp edges.”

美国服装与鞋类协会会长斯蒂芬·拉马尔表示，拟议中的关税措施让其组织感到失望，并认为政府应该放慢节奏，与包括国会在内的各方利益相关者合作。他把这一过程比作政府试图“把碎裂的玻璃粘在一起，修补得一团糟，最后扎手的可能还是美国企业和消费者”。

“We understand the administration is hurriedly trying to recreate the tariff rates it had sought to establish under a scheme now deemed illegal by the Supreme Court,” he said. “In this effort, the process increasingly feels like answers in search of an investigation rather than an investigation in search of answers.”

他说：“我们理解政府正急于恢复此前试图建立的一套关税税率体系，但那一方案如今已被最高法院认定为非法。在这一过程中，整个做法越来越像是先有答案再去做调查来证明，而不是通过调查寻找答案。”

When the Chinese government gathered this month for its biggest political meeting of the year, it laid out big ambitions. It will keep boosting military spending. It will work to dominate artificial intelligence. It will reinforce its manufacturing prowess.

本月为年度最大的政治会议聚集在一起时，中国政府勾勒出了宏大的雄心。它将继续增加军费开支。它将努力主导人工智能领域。它将强化其制造业实力。

But when it comes to some of the country’s most vulnerable citizens, the plan is decidedly less lofty. The government said it would increase the minimum basic pension for rural residents by 20 yuan a month, or less than $3, to a grand total of about $24 a month.

但在涉及该国一些最脆弱的公民时，计划显然没那么远大。政府表示，将把农村居民的基础养老金最低标准每月提高20元，即不到3美元，使总额达到每月163元。

The promised increase is so meager that it has prompted widespread calls for more — even from representatives to China’s rubber-stamp legislature who usually spend their annual meeting praising Beijing’s plans.

这一承诺的增幅是如此微薄，以至于引发了要求增加的广泛呼声——甚至包括中国的橡皮图章立法机构的代表们，他们通常在这场年度会议上都在赞美北京的计划。

“This is just too unfair to farmers,” Guo Fenglian, a representative and village leader who was once praised by Mao as a model worker, told a Chinese reporter at the weeklong legislative meeting in Beijing that ended Thursday.

“对农民有点太亏了，”全国人大代表、曾被毛泽东赞誉为劳动模范的村干部郭凤莲在周四结束的为期一周的北京立法会议上告诉一名中国记者。

Ms. Guo described seeing farmers in their 80s or 90s still working in the fields, sometimes with canes or stooped backs. “They’re already very old and don’t have the physical ability to work anymore. But the cost of living is high,” she said, according to the Workers’ Daily, a Communist Party publication.

郭女士描述了她看到八九十岁的农民仍在田间劳作，有时拄着拐杖或弓着背。“他们已经很老了，已经失去了体力劳动的能动性。但是生活的成本也很高，”据共产党刊物《工人日报》报道，她这样说道。

For many Chinese farmers, the payments are far from enough to live on. The average older rural resident spends about $80 a month on routine expenses, according to a government report published in 2024. About 180 million people receive the rural pension, a cohort that is set to grow as China’s population ages rapidly. (The pension also covers urban residents without salaried work, but the vast majority of recipients are farmers.)

对于许多中国农民来说，这笔支出远不足以维持生活。根据2024年发布的一份政府报告，农村老年人平均每月在常规支出上花费约80美元。约有1.8亿人领取农村养老金，随着中国人口迅速老龄化，这一群体还将继续增长。（该养老金也覆盖没有受薪工作的城镇居民，但绝大多数领取者是农民。）

The paltriness of the pension is one of the clearest examples of the vast inequalities in China’s economy, and the deep-rooted challenges that are often overshadowed by its much-touted progress in high-tech fields. While the country leads the world in sectors like robotics or electric vehicles, many of the workers who powered China’s economic rise, such as farmers and workers in low-end manufacturing, are suffering from stagnating wages and cutthroat competition.

养老金的微薄是中国经济巨大不平等的明证之一，也是一个根深蒂固的挑战，而这些挑战往往被其在高科技领域备受赞誉的进步所掩盖。虽然在机器人或电动汽车等行业领先世界，但许多助力中国经济崛起的劳动者，如农民和低端制造业工人，正深受工资停滞和残酷竞争之苦。

Despite its socialist billing, China has a threadbare social safety net; the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has warned against the dangers of “welfarism.”

尽管标榜社会主义，中国的社会安全网却很薄弱；该国最高领导人习近平曾警告过“福利主义”的危险。

Rural residents have also long had far fewer benefits than their urban counterparts. While the average actual payout for rural pensioners is about 246 yuan, or $36, a month, retirees in cities receive on average almost 16 times more, or about $560 a month, according to the government’s 2025 Labor Statistical Yearbook. Retired officials get even more, on average $940 a month.

而长期以来，农村居民享有的福利也远少于城镇居民。根据政府的2025年《中国劳动统计年鉴》，农村养老金的实际发放额为246元（约合36美元），但城市退休人员平均领取的金额几乎是其16倍，即每月约560美元(人民币3800多元)。退休官员得到的更多，平均每月940美元（人民币近6000元）。

Zhou Shihong, a lawyer who is a member of a government advisory body, suggested the government work to close the disparity.

作为政府咨询机构成员的律师周世虹建议政府努力消除这种差距。

“If it relates to government funding or state subsidies, social security should be provided equally to everybody,” he told Chinese media, adding that the government should strive to raise the rural pension to $145 a month by 2030.

“凡是涉及到国家出资或者国家财政补贴，对每个人的社会保障应该是人人均等的，”他告诉中国媒体，并补充说，政府应努力在2030年前将农村养老金提高到1000元。

Indeed, the delegates’ calls for higher pensions were striking largely for their modesty. Some called for a rise to 500 yuan, or $70, a month. That increase, for farmers over 70, would cost less than 1 percent of the country’s budget for general public expenditures, one lawmaker pointed out.

事实上，代表们提高养老金的呼吁之所以引人注目，很大程度上是因为这是个十分克制的诉求。一些人呼吁将金额提高到每月500元（约70美元）。一位立法者指出，对于70岁以上的农民来说，这一增幅所耗费的成本不到该国一般公共预算支出的1%。

周一，在北京参加全国人民代表大会的代表们。

Much of the discussion online has been supportive of calls for more money for rural pensioners.

网络上的许多讨论都支持为农村养老金领取者提供更多资金的呼吁。

But some delegates have sounded notes of caution. The president of a major Chinese electronic appliance company said that even a seemingly small increase would add up quickly. Major state media outlets have largely been silent on the outcry.

但一些代表发出了谨慎的声音。一家中国大型家电公司的总裁表示，即使是看似很小的增幅也会迅速累积。主要的官方媒体对这些抗议声大多保持沉默。

China’s finance minister, in an unrelated news conference last week, acknowledged the importance of ensuring people’s livelihoods but also said that the country’s revenue was “under pressure” and called for reducing expenditures. A slow-moving housing market crash has hurt local government revenues, which rely heavily on land sales.

中国财政部长在上周的一次无关的新闻发布会上承认了确保民生的重要性，但也表示该国的财政收入“承压”，并要求减少开支。房地产市场的缓慢崩盘损害了地方政府的收入，而后者严重依赖土地出售。

Proponents of higher pensions said that with more money, residents would be willing to spend more, which in turn would help the government meet a major goal of increasing domestic demand.

提高养老金的支持者表示，有了更多的钱，居民将愿意花更多的钱，这反过来将有助于政府实现增加国内需求的主要目标。

For many, though, the main argument was more moral than pragmatic. China’s farmers had helped build the country, they said, when Mao-era policies required them to sell their crops for artificially low prices, turn their land over to the state and pay agricultural taxes.

然而，对许多人来说，主要的论据与其说是务实的，不如说是道德上的。他们说，中国的农民曾帮助建设了这个国家，当时毛泽东时代的政策要求他们以人为压低的价格出售农作物，将土地交给国家并缴纳农业税。

They acknowledged that urban residents pay more into the pension system than rural residents do, but said the system did not account for the farmers’ historic contributions.

他们承认，城镇居民向养老系统缴纳的费用比农村居民多，但他们表示，该系统没有考虑到农民的历史贡献。

“These contributions cannot be measured by simple payment records,” a commentary in China Business Network, a Shanghai-based media outlet, said. “Increasing farmers’ pensions is not about providing them with welfare, but rather about paying back a debt.”

“这些贡献不能通过简单的缴费记录来衡量，”上海媒体《第一财经》的一篇评论称。“给农民涨养老金不是给农民发福利，而是在还账。”