As they gathered this week in South America, many of the world’s leaders were engaged in a delicate diplomatic dance with President Xi Jinping of China.

本周，许多世界领导人齐聚南美，他们与中国国家主席习近平进行了微妙的外交互动。

Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, called for a “consistent, durable” relationship with China. Anthony Albanese, the prime minister of Australia, pledged to be “patient, calibrated and deliberate.” President Biden promised not to let “competition veer into conflict,” even as he prepared to hand power over to President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has vowed confrontation with China on tariffs.

英国首相斯塔默呼吁与中国建立“稳定、持久”的关系。澳大利亚总理安瑟尼·阿尔巴尼斯承诺“保持耐心、谨慎和深思熟虑”。拜登总统承诺不会“让竞争演变为冲突”，尽管他正准备将权力移交给候任总统特朗普，后者誓言在关税问题上与中国对抗。

As the United States makes a transition from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump, presidents and prime ministers around the world are searching for stability, particularly when it comes to China. Mr. Xi, in his own remarks during a meeting in Peru, told Mr. Biden that he wanted to maintain a “stable, healthy and sustainable” relationship with the United States.

在美国从拜登过渡到特朗普之际，世界各国的总统和总理都在寻求稳定，特别是在涉及中国的问题上。习近平在秘鲁的一次会议上对拜登说，他希望与美国保持“稳定、健康、可持续发展”的关系。

But the steadiness that the world leaders seek with China is threatened by a host of complicated issues that lingered just beneath the veneer of civility at the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, which ended on Tuesday.

但是，在周二结束的里约热内卢20国集团峰会上，世界各国领导人彬彬有礼的外表之下掩藏着一系列复杂的问题，威胁着他们寻求与中国保持稳定关系的努力。

Potential conflicts with China loom on human rights, the fate of Taiwan, technology competition, cyber attacks, aid to Russia and tariffs.

在人权、台湾的命运、技术竞争、网络攻击、对俄罗斯的援助和关税方面，各国与中国的潜在冲突日益凸显。

And for all the pomp and pleasantries as Mr. Biden wraps up a half-century on the world stage, there is deep uncertainty about the role the United States might play in heading off those conflicts.

拜登即将结束他登上世界舞台近半个世纪以来的职业生涯，尽管他在G20峰会上获得了周到的仪式和礼遇，但美国在化解这些冲突方面可能发挥的作用仍存在很大的不确定性。

In his last speech at the United Nations in September, Mr. Biden said the world was at “another inflection point” and added: “The choices we make today will determine our future for decades to come.”

9月，拜登在他的最后一次联合国演讲中表示，世界正处于“另一个拐点”，他还说：“我们今天做出的选择将决定未来的几十年。”

When it comes to China, his counterparts are hoping that their choices prove to be the right ones.

关于中国，世界其他国家的领导人希望自己的选择是正确的。

2024年11月6日，候任总统特朗普出现在北京购物中心的大屏幕上。

“European leaders are going to be looking to Xi with this kind of, ‘Now you have got to step up,’” said John Delury, a historian of modern China. “‘Like, this is not just talk anymore. We really want to elevate this relationship so that we can count on you.’”

“欧洲领导人将转向习近平：‘现在你该有所行动了，’”现代中国史学家鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。“‘这不再只是说说而已。我们真的希望提升这种关系，以便我们可以指望你。’”

For his part, China’s president used the G20 summit to promote his country as a benign supporter of open trade and international stability. Chinese leaders have long offered reassuring themes in speeches to global audiences, but Mr. Xi and his advisers appear to hope that foreign leaders will be more receptive while they prepare for the strains and uncertainties of a second Trump term.

中国国家主席则利用G20峰会宣传中国是开放贸易和国际稳定的积极支持者。长期以来，中国领导人一直在向全球听众传递安抚人心的主题，但是这一次，习近平和他的顾问们似乎希望外国领导人在能够更愿意接纳他们的观点的同时，为特朗普第二任期的压力和不确定性做好准备。

Countries should “view each other’s development as an opportunity, not a challenge, and treat each other as partners, not adversaries,” Mr. Xi told leaders at the G20 summit on Monday, according to an official Chinese account of his remarks.

根据中国官方对习近平主席在周一G20峰会上的讲话的报道，习近平主席告诉与会领导人，应该“互相视对方的发展为机遇而非挑战，互相把对方作为伙伴而非对手”。

But Mr. Xi also issued an implicit warning to the other leaders in attendance. While promising to abide by a commitment to “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and winning cooperation,” the Chinese leader also said that “our position of resolutely safeguarding China’s sovereignty, security and development interests remains unchanged.”

但习近平也对其他与会领导人发出了隐含的警告。在承诺遵守“相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢”的同时，中国领导人还表示，中国“坚定维护自身主权、安全、发展利益的立场没有变”。

That warning was underscored at the summit on Monday during an opening session featuring remarks by each leader. Television cameras were running when Mr. Starmer delivered his comments. But when he mentioned concerns about human rights in China and the treatment of Jimmy Lai, a Hong Kong businessman and pro-democracy dissident, Chinese representatives in the large conference room moved quickly to block the view of the cameras and push journalists out of the room.

在周一的首脑会议开幕式上，各国领导人发表讲话时，这一警告得到了强调。斯塔默发表讲话时，现场媒体还在拍摄。但当斯塔默提到对中国的人权状况以及香港商人、民主异见人士黎智英的待遇表示担忧时，在巨大的会议室内，中国代表迅速行动、遮挡镜头，将记者赶出了会议室。

It was a reminder that diplomacy with China has often been rocky.

这提醒人们，与中国的外交关系往往充满波折。

In the United States, Mr. Xi’s anger over Mr. Biden’s decision to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon ended most communications between the countries for more than a year.

在美国，习近平对拜登击落中国侦查气球的决定感到愤怒，导致两国之间的大多数沟通中断了一年多。

In Australia, tensions have flared over Chinese Communist Party influence activities in Australia and deepening concerns over China’s regional ambitions. On Monday, Mr. Xi said the two countries had “witnessed some twists and turns.”

在澳大利亚，由于中国共产党在该国的影响力活动，以及对中国地区野心的担忧日益加深，两国关系一度紧张。周一，习近平表示，近年来两国关系“经历一些曲折”。

周二，在巴西里约热内卢举行的二十国集团峰会期间，法国总统马克龙（左）在双边会谈中与中国国家主席习近平握手。

But Australia and China have resumed high-level talks and eased some concerns about tariffs in recent months, a sign that Mr. Albanese, like other leaders, is eager to find ways to maintain a working relationship. After a meeting between the two men on Monday, Mr. Albanese posted pictures on social media of them shaking hands.

但澳大利亚和中国在最近几个月恢复了高层对话，并缓解了人们对关税的一些担忧，这表明与其他领导人一样，阿尔巴尼斯渴望找到与中国维持有效关系的办法。两人于周一举行会晤后，阿尔巴尼斯在社交媒体上发布了两人握手的照片。

“Dialogue is critical, and we’ve made encouraging progress,” he wrote. “Trade is flowing more freely. And that brings benefits to both countries, and to people and businesses on both sides.”

“对话至关重要，我们取得了令人鼓舞的进展。贸易往来更加自由。这给两国、两国人民和两国企业都带来好处，”他写道。

Washington and Beijing have also sought to ease tensions between them in the past two years. Communications have restarted between high-level diplomats and military officials in both countries. And the meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi on Saturday, the second in a year, was intended to demonstrate that the leaders can work with each other.

过去两年，华盛顿和北京也一直在努力缓解两国之间的紧张关系。两国高层外交官和军事官员之间的沟通已经重启。拜登和习近平周六的会面是他们一年内的第二次，旨在表明两国领导人可以相互合作。

However, Mr. Biden is a lame duck soon to be replaced by Mr. Trump. Around the world, officials are bracing for a return to Mr. Trump’s confrontational policies while eager to see if anything is different during a second term.

然而，已成跛脚鸭的拜登很快将被特朗普取代。在世界各地，官员们都在为特朗普对抗性政策的回归做准备，同时急切地想看到特朗普在第二个任期中是否会有任何变化。

Mr. Trump promises to steeply increase tariffs. If he acts on those promises, he could hurt American standing abroad, even with a firm ally like Australia, by reversing the free trade approach in the United States that has dominated under Democrats and Republicans for years, said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy think tank in Sydney.

特朗普承诺大幅提高关税。悉尼外交政策智库洛伊研究所东亚问题高级研究员理查德·麦格雷戈表示，如果特朗普兑现承诺，可能会颠覆多年来由两党主导的美国自由贸易政策，从而损害美国在海外的地位，甚至包括像澳大利亚这样的坚定盟友。

“I think it has the potential for really damaging the image of the United States in Australia and, in turn, corroding some support for the alliance,” he said in an interview. “I don’t want to exaggerate that, but it’s corrosive to the U.S. image.”

他在接受采访时说：“我认为这有可能严重损害美国在澳大利亚的形象，进而削弱对联盟的一些支持。我不想夸大其词，但这确实会损害美国形象。”

In the meantime, Chinese policymakers are searching for diplomatic openings after Mr. Trump returns to the White House.

与此同时，中国决策者正在寻找特朗普重返白宫后的外交突破口。

China’s foreign policy “will not undergo a transformative shift just because Trump takes office,” Wang Wen, the dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said in an interview. “On the other hand, Trump’s return will force Chinese foreign policy to become more flexible toward a range of countries.”

中国外交政策“不会因为特朗普上台而发生根本性转变”，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长王文在接受采访时说道，“另一方面，特朗普的上台将迫使中国对一系列国家的外交政策变得更加灵活。”

拜登总统和习近平周六在秘鲁利马举行的双边会谈中会面。

Over the past few years, Beijing has already been seeking to reduce its isolation and blunt Washington’s influence by mending ties with governments in Europe and across the Asia-Pacific region.

过去几年，北京一直在与欧洲和亚太地区各国政府修复关系，从而减少孤立，削弱华盛顿的影响力。

Mr. Xi has wooed President Emmanuel Macron of France and Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, nudging them to distance Europe from Washington. Last month, China and India announced an agreement on patrolling their shared Himalayan border, where deadly clashes broke out between their troops in 2020.

习近平拉拢法国总统马克龙和德国总理肖尔茨，试图推动他们让欧洲与华盛顿保持距离。上个月，中国和印度宣布了一项关于在喜马拉雅共同边界巡逻的协议，两国军队曾在2020年爆发致命冲突。

Even so, there appear to be limits on how far Mr. Xi can successfully exploit potential diplomatic openings created by Mr. Trump.

即便如此，在利用特朗普创造的潜在外交机会方面，习近平似乎也不会走得太远。

For all of Mr. Xi’s talk of open trade, foreign investors and companies often face high barriers to doing business in China. China’s surges of cheap exports were also frustrating Brazil, South Africa and other developing countries that have leaned toward Beijing. The Chinese goods were undercutting industries in their own countries and costing jobs.

尽管他大谈开放贸易，外国投资者和公司在中国做生意时还是经常面临重重壁垒。中国廉价出口产品的激增也令巴西、南非和其他倾向于北京的发展中国家感到不满。中国商品削弱了这些国家的工业，并导致工作岗位流失。

“The U.S. is a much more open economy than China’s, but you wouldn’t really know it if you just listened to the two leaders because Trump always talks about protectionism and Xi always talks about free trade,” Mr. McGregor said. “Can you imagine Xi ever saying ‘tariff’ is one of the most beautiful words in the Chinese language?”

“美国比中国开放得多，但如果只听两位领导人的发言，你根本不会知道这一点，因为特朗普总说保护主义，而习近平总说自由贸易，”麦格雷戈说，“你能想象习近平会说‘关税’是汉语中最美的词汇之一吗？”

For Mr. Biden, the end of the G20 summit on Tuesday marked the conclusion of his time on the world stage, advocating on behalf of international alliances and organizations. For his counterparts, it was the beginning of a new chapter in global diplomacy that may be more focused on China than ever before.

对拜登而言，周二G20峰会的结束标志着他在世界舞台上倡导国际联盟和组织的时代结束了。对于世界其他国家的领导人而言，这是全球外交新篇章的开始，而这个新篇章可能比以往任何时候都更关注中国。

The fate of those diplomatic efforts will probably not be known for months or even years. Mr. Delury said predictions were risky, but he added that “China is bound to disappoint its biggest cheerleaders at this moment.”

这些外交努力的结果可能几个月甚至几年都无法知晓。鲁乐汉表示，预测是有风险的，但他说，“中国肯定会让它目前最大的支持者们失望。”

2024年9月24日，纽约，拜登在第79届联合国大会上发表讲话后告别。