Pakistan’s business owners are desperate for peace.

巴基斯坦的企业主们极度渴望和平。

Ghulam Mustafa, a mango exporter, rushed containers of the plump fruit to the Pakistan-Iran border as soon as the United States and Iran signed a cease-fire agreement, brokered by Pakistan, last month.

上个月，在美国和伊朗签署由巴基斯坦斡旋达成的停火协议后，芒果出口商古拉姆·穆斯塔法立即将装满饱满芒果的集装箱运往巴基斯坦与伊朗边境。

But the truce has collapsed, the trucks have turned back, and Mr. Mustafa’s mangoes are rotting.

但休战协议已经破裂，卡车掉头折返，穆斯塔法的芒果正在腐烂。

“We’re sending our products, and we don’t know whether they’ll cross or get stopped,” Mr. Mustafa said.

“我们把产品运过去，却不知道它们是能过境还是会被拦下，”穆斯塔法说。

I spoke to him on a recent morning in his office as he watched videos from his driver showing boxes full of spoiled fruit that never reached their Iranian buyers.

前不久的一个早晨，我在他的办公室采访了他，当时他正在看司机发来的视频，视频显示一箱箱装满腐烂水果的箱子，它们始终未能送达伊朗买家手中。

For him and other business owners in Karachi — Pakistan’s largest city and its commercial hub — the economic stakes of an end to the war in Iran are high. Peace would mean not just lower fuel prices but also a chance to finally take advantage of the huge trading partner right across the 565-mile border.

对于他以及巴基斯坦最大城市兼商业中心卡拉奇的其他企业主来说，结束伊朗战争的经济影响至关重要。和平不仅意味着燃料价格的降低，也意味着终于有机会利用约900公里边境线对面那个巨大的贸易伙伴。

The Pakistani economy is struggling and heavily reliant on foreign lenders like China and Saudi Arabia. A nation of 250 million people, Pakistan has four neighbors but doesn’t formally trade with two of them, India and Afghanistan, because of ongoing tensions. Investments from the third one, China, are down nearly 30 percent this year.

巴基斯坦经济步履维艰，严重依赖中国和沙特阿拉伯等外国贷款方。人口2.5亿的巴基斯坦有四个邻国，但由于持续的紧张局势，它与其中的印度和阿富汗没有正式贸易往来。来自第三个邻国中国的投资今年下降了近30%。

芒果贸易商、批发商和出口商穆斯塔法在卡拉奇的新萨布齐曼迪集市内。

Traders and entrepreneurs had pinned their hopes on better relations with the fourth, Iran.

贸易商和企业家们曾把希望寄托在改善与第四个邻国伊朗的关系上。

“The situation is very urgent for Pakistan,” said Kaiser Bengali, an economist based in Karachi. “We subscribe to loans to pay back old loans. Any relief from any side will be welcome.”

“巴基斯坦的情况非常紧急，”驻卡拉奇的经济学家凯瑟·孟加拉表示。“我们借新贷还旧贷。来自任何方面的任何缓解都是受欢迎的。”

Both governments have pledged to boost trade. This week, Iran’s interior minister, Eskandar Momeni, led a delegation to Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, that included the governor of Iran’s border province, the head of the national oil company and top Iranian officials in transportation, agriculture and urban development.

两国政府都已承诺促进贸易。本周，伊朗内政部长埃斯坎达尔·莫梅尼率领代表团前往巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡，代表团成员包括伊朗边境省份的省长、国家石油公司负责人以及伊朗交通、农业和城市发展部门的高级官员。

But many among Karachi’s powerful and influential industrialists are feeling disillusionment and alarm.

但在卡拉奇，有许多权势显赫、颇具影响力的实业家正感到幻灭和恐慌。

Yasmin Dadabhoy, whose business specializes in construction materials and energy, briefly considered a trip to Iran for construction deals during the cease-fire.

亚斯敏·达达博伊的企业专门从事建筑材料和能源业务，在停火期间，她曾短暂考虑过前往伊朗洽谈建筑交易。

Ms. Dadabhoy said the mood at the time was, “Business will be back, sunshine and rainbows, reconstruction and everything.”

达达博伊说，当时的情绪是，“生意会回来的，阳光灿烂、彩虹满天，重建以及一切工作都会顺利。”

“It ended in a blink of an eye,” she added. “Now there’s bombing everywhere.”

“这一切转瞬即逝，”她还说。“现在到处都在轰炸。”

Like many Pakistanis, Ms. Dadabhoy praised the country’s government and military leadership for their efforts, but she said the United States and Iran should sit down for talks again.

与许多巴基斯坦人一样，达达博伊赞扬了本国政府和军方领导层所作的努力，但她表示，美国和伊朗应该再次坐下来谈判。

“The big boys need to settle things down fast,” she said.

“大佬们得赶紧把事情解决好，”她说。

卡拉奇港，堆放在起重机附近的集装箱。

Spoiled Fruit, Soured Hopes

腐烂的水果，破灭的希望

It’s not only Mr. Mustafa’s mangoes that are stuck at the border. Rice and textiles from Pakistan, and oil and steel from Iran, are moving in a trickle. Traders and business owners say smuggling of oil and essential food products is still going on, but that, too, has become more difficult and expensive because of the war in Iran and attacks by armed groups in Pakistan’s border province of Balochistan.

滞留在边境的不仅仅是穆斯塔法的芒果。来自巴基斯坦的大米和纺织品、来自伊朗的石油和钢铁都只能零星地艰难流通。贸易商和企业主表示，石油和基本食品的走私活动仍在继续，但由于伊朗的战争以及武装组织在巴基斯坦边境俾路支省发动的袭击，走私也变得更加困难、成本更高。

Pakistan’s mangoes, a source of national pride, brought in $110 million in export revenue last year. But the country’s main trade association for fruits and vegetables has slashed this year’s export target by nearly 30 percent because of declining yields and rising freight costs, which have doubled by air and increased almost sixfold by sea.

芒果是巴基斯坦的骄傲，去年出口收入达1.1亿美元。但由于产量下降和运费上涨——空运费用翻了一番，海运费用几乎增长了六倍——该国主要的水果和蔬菜贸易协会已将今年的出口目标下调了近30%。

With fruits rotting at the border with Iran, traders have cut prices by half and sold them at auctions.

随着水果在巴伊边境腐烂，商人们将价格削减了一半，并在拍卖会上出售。

They are getting impatient, too. Pakistan’s top leaders, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the army chief, Field Marshal Asim Syed Munir, earned some praise domestically for hosting the first meeting in decades between top U.S. and Iranian officials in Islamabad in April, and later for helping broker a cease-fire between the two countries.

他们也变得越来越不耐烦了。由于4月在伊斯兰堡主持了几十年来美伊高级官员之间的首次会晤，并协助斡旋两国达成停火协议，巴基斯坦最高领导人、总理夏巴兹·谢里夫和陆军参谋长阿西姆·赛义德·穆尼尔元帅在国内赢得了一些赞誉。

But that good will may have already been spent.

但这些好感可能已经被消耗殆尽。

“The leaders are showing off,” said Afzal Khan, a wholesale trader selling mangoes in Karachi. He added that the moniker “Showbaz” was circulating widely — a play on Mr. Sharif’s first name, reflecting the view that his role was more performative than substantive.

“这些领导人只是在作秀，”在卡拉奇销售芒果的批发商阿夫扎尔·汗说。他还说，“作秀巴兹”这个绰号正在广泛流传——这是对谢里夫的名字“夏巴兹”的戏仿，反映出人们认为他的角色更多是作秀性质，没有什么实际内容。

卡拉奇的芒果商人阿夫扎尔·汗表示，巴基斯坦领导人通过外交手段试图结束伊朗战争的举动不过是在“作秀”。

“The solution is in the hands of Mr. Trump,” said Aitbaar Ali Syed, a fruit and vegetable exporter based in Karachi. “If he wants, he can solve all these problems.”

“解决方案掌握在特朗普手中，”总部位于卡拉奇的水果和蔬菜出口商艾特巴尔·阿里·赛义德说。“只要他愿意，就可以解决所有这些问题。”

Spooked by Sanctions

制裁引起的恐慌

Pakistani business owners dealing with Iran say U.S. sanctions have hampered their quest to expand trade.

与伊朗有业务往来的巴基斯坦企业主表示，美国的制裁阻碍了他们扩大贸易的努力。

Decades ago, Shahid Hamid Jafri’s father traded textiles for rugs from Iran. These days, Mr. Jafri deals mainly in Pakistan’s critical minerals and exports only a trickle of Pakistani rice to Iran. (Essential items like food are not subject to sanctions.) With full access, he said the Iranian market would have “huge, huge potential.”

几十年前，沙希德·哈米德·贾弗里的父亲用纺织品交换伊朗的地毯。如今，贾弗里主要经营巴基斯坦的关键矿产，只向伊朗出口极少量的巴基斯坦大米。（食品等必需品不受制裁。）他表示，如果能获得全面准入，伊朗市场将拥有“巨大、巨大的潜力”。

Officially, Pakistan and Iran trade is about $3 billion — much less than the $5.4 billion in goods that Pakistan exported to the United States last year.

官方数据显示，巴基斯坦与伊朗的贸易额约为30亿美元，远低于巴基斯坦去年对美国的54亿美元出口额。

But Muhammad Rehan Hanif, the president of Karachi’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said that when Iranian business owners visit the chamber, the two sides struggle to discuss anything concrete because of sanctions.

但卡拉奇工商会主席穆罕默德·雷汉·哈尼夫表示，当伊朗企业主到访商会时，由于制裁的缘故，双方难以就实质性内容展开讨论。

“When banks read the word ‘Iran,’ they get spooked,” said Asfandyar Khan Mandokhail, who’s with a major Pakistani trade organization.

“银行一看到‘伊朗’这个名字就害怕，”巴基斯坦一家主要贸易组织的阿斯凡迪亚尔·汗·曼多哈伊尔表示。

If not for sanctions, traders say, Pakistan could increase its supply of maize, rice, textiles, pharmaceutical products and surgical equipment to Iran. Iran could supply fuel and gas much more cheaply to Pakistan than Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf.

贸易商们说，如果不是因为制裁，巴基斯坦本可以增加对伊朗的玉米、大米、纺织品、药品和手术设备的供应。而相比沙特阿拉伯和海湾地区的其他国家，伊朗能以便宜得多的价格向巴基斯坦供应燃料和天然气。

Instead, for most trade, Pakistan and Iran must rely on barter, third-party routes, like ports in the United Arab Emirates, and smuggling over land or by sea, which is widespread. There is no official data on the volume of informal trade, but it is estimated to represent billions of dollars.

然而，巴基斯坦和伊朗的大部分贸易只能依赖易货贸易、通过阿联酋港口等第三方渠道，以及广泛存在的陆路或海上走私。非正式贸易的规模没有官方数据，但估计高达数十亿美元。

“When you blend Iranian oil with a cargo coming from elsewhere, you cannot prove it’s Iranian,” said Mahmood Moulvi, the chairman of a major shipping company that trades rice and cooking oil with Iran, among other products. Describing how Iranian products reach Pakistan, Mr. Moulvi said it is nearly impossible for business owners to do so legally, so they use smugglers or route products through a third country.

“当你把伊朗石油与来自其他地方的货物混合在一起时，你就无法证明它是伊朗的了，”马哈茂德·穆尔维表示。他是一家大型航运公司董事长，该公司与伊朗开展大米、食用油等产品的贸易。在谈到伊朗产品如何进入巴基斯坦时，穆尔维表示，企业主几乎不可能合法地开展业务，因此他们要么通过走私，要么通过第三国转运。

Watching and Waiting

观望与等待

Formalizing trade by lifting sanctions, business owners say, would eliminate the expense and risk involved in paying smugglers, and they would be able to sell a wider variety of Iranian consumer products, from watermelon to whipped cream or sweets.

企业主表示，如果能解除制裁、让贸易正规化，他们就不用再花钱找走私者，也不用担惊受怕了，而且他们将能够销售更广泛的伊朗消费品，从西瓜到鲜奶油或糖果。

Today, even the trade in smuggled goods appears to be drying up.

如今，即便是走私贸易似乎也在萎缩。

One morning last week, I wandered the alleys of a market in Karachi that once sold a wide variety of Iranian sweets. Only a handful were available: Iranian-made copies of Snickers bars, called Stunner, and Oreo cookies, called Bisoreno.

上周的一个上午，我在卡拉奇的一个市场里转悠，这里曾经出售各种伊朗糖果。如今只剩零星几种：伊朗仿制的士力架巧克力棒（名为Stunner），以及仿制的奥利奥饼干（名为Bisoreno）。

在卡拉奇熙熙攘攘的博尔顿市场内，一名商贩正在出售进口的伊朗巧克力和饼干。

Imports of smuggled oil have been cut by half as well, said Tariq Hasan, the vice chairman of Pakistan’s main petroleum lobbying group.

巴基斯坦主要石油游说团体的副主席塔里克·哈桑表示，走私石油的进口量也减少了一半。

A gas pipeline project to link the two countries has also stalled because of U.S. sanctions; Iran has completed construction, but Pakistan hasn’t started its portion.

一条连接两国的天然气管道项目也因美国制裁而停滞；伊朗已完成建设，但巴基斯坦尚未启动本国的部分。

Along with the chance to legalize and increase imports of Iranian oil, analysts and business owners say the big prize for Pakistan would be a chance to be involved in the postwar reconstruction of Iran.

分析人士和企业主表示，除了有机会使伊朗石油进口合法化并增加进口量之外，对巴基斯坦来说更大的红利是参与伊朗战后重建的机会。

Ms. Dadabhoy, the construction executive, noted that Pakistan had the workers and the construction materials Iran would need.

建筑公司高管达达博伊指出，巴基斯坦拥有伊朗所需的劳动力和建筑材料。

“We are playing watch and wait, because with uncertainty entrepreneurs don’t venture out,” she said.

“我们正在观望等待，因为在充满不确定性的情况下，企业家不敢贸然行动，”她说。