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中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

习近平对默茨示好,但中德核心分歧仍难以弥合

DAVID PIERSON

周四,德国总理默茨参观北京故宫。这是他访华行程的第二天,在此次访问期间,他一方面推动加强双边关系,另一方面也表达了德国对中国贸易做法的关切。 Tingshu Wang/Reuters

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, tried to sell Germany on a future less tied to the United States and anchored instead in Chinese markets and technology.

中国领导人习近平试图向德国推销一种未来愿景:减少对美国的依赖,转而更多锚定在中国市场和技术上。

Mr. Xi pledged that China would continue to “share development opportunities with Germany and the wider world” in his meeting with Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, who was on a visit to Beijing that seemed curated to highlight such opportunities. On Thursday, Mr. Merz tried out a new Mercedes-Benz in Beijing, then flew to the eastern city of Hangzhou to tour a Chinese robotics company.

习近平在与到访的德国总理默茨会晤时承诺,中国将继续“同包括德国在内的世界各国分享发展机遇”。默茨此次北京之行似乎经过精心安排,旨在突出这些机遇。周四,默茨在北京试驾了一辆新型梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车,随后飞往东部城市杭州,参观一家中国机器人公司。

But for all the pageantry, the visit has also laid bare the limits of that sales pitch.

然而,尽管场面盛大,此次访问也暴露了这一推销说辞的局限性。

Unlike other Western leaders who have met with Mr. Xi in recent weeks, Mr. Merz was publicly pointed. He paired pledges of cooperation with an accounting of how a flood of Chinese exports and an unfair playing field are harming German businesses and contributing to the loss of thousands of jobs in his country each month.

与近几周跟习近平会面的其他西方领导人不同,默茨公开表达了不满。他一方面承诺合作,另一方面也列举了中国出口倾销和不公平竞争环境如何损害德国企业,并导致德国每月损失数千个工作岗位。

“Competition between companies must be fair,” Mr. Merz said in a statement after he met with Mr. Xi on Wednesday, describing what it would take for Germany’s relationship with China to succeed moving forward. “We need transparency, we need reliability, and we also need adherence to jointly established rules.”

“企业之间的竞争必须公平,”默茨在周三与习近平会晤后发表声明,阐释德中关系未来成功所需的条件。“我们需要透明度,需要可靠性,也需要遵守共同制定的规则。”

Such demands show that Mr. Xi’s courtship of the West — an effort aided by President Trump’s alienation of U.S. allies — falls short of addressing the grievances that have long divided China and the West. Chief among them are an artificially weak Chinese currency; unequal access for foreign companies in China; state subsidies that make Chinese exports appear cheaper; and Beijing’s use of its dominance over critical minerals as leverage.

这些要求表明,习近平对西方的示好努力——特朗普总统对美国盟友的疏远是一种助力——并未触及长期以来中西方分歧的核心问题。其中的主要问题包括:中国人为压低的人民币汇率;外国企业在华市场准入不平等;国家补贴使中国出口产品看起来更便宜;以及北京将关键矿产上的主导地位作为筹码。

Even China’s sweeteners have been modest. Mr. Merz, who brought with him more than two dozen German business leaders, said China pledged to buy more Airbus planes. Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said last month that China would slash tariffs on imports of Canadian canola products. Both moves amount to tactical gifts rather than real reforms.

即便中国给出的甜头也相当有限。默茨此次率领二十多名德国商界领袖访华,他表示中方承诺将购买更多空客飞机。加拿大总理马克·卡尼上个月称,中国将大幅降低对加拿大油菜籽产品的进口关税。这些举措都属于战术性让利,而非真正改革。

China’s current playbook “drives a wedge between Washington and its allies without requiring Beijing to compromise on internal priorities,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Yet it does nothing to address the underlying frictions stoking Western frustration.”

中国目前的策略是“在不牺牲北京内部优先事项的前提下,离间华盛顿与其盟友”,美国外交关系委员会高级研究员黄严忠表示。“然而,这丝毫没有解决引发西方不满的根本摩擦。”

If anything, Mr. Huang said, Mr. Xi is set to double down on his vision next month when he releases details of China’s 15th five-year plan. The plan is likely to pour even more state resources into the very industries — electric vehicles, robotics, clean energy — that are undercutting Western competitors, while tightening China’s grip on the supply chains they depend on.

黄严忠认为,如果说有什么变化的话,习近平下个月公布中国“十五五”规划细节时,很可能会加倍推进其愿景。该规划很可能将更多国家资源投入到那些正在削弱西方竞争对手的行业——电动汽车、机器人、清洁能源,同时加强对这些行业所依赖的供应链的控制。

26int china germany analysis 02 fgzv master1050中国领导人习近平周三在北京会见默茨时,敦促德国以客观、理性的态度看待中国的崛起。

“European leaders will continue to arrive with complaints and depart with narrow wins,” Mr. Huang said.

“欧洲领导人将继续带着抱怨而来,带着有限的收获离开,”黄严忠说。

China has little incentive to change course. Exports are the only major engine keeping China’s economy growing as it struggles through a yearslong property crisis.

中国没有什么改弦更张的动力。出口是中国经济在持续数年的房产危机中唯一仍保持增长的主要引擎。

Beijing is pitching Germany on the idea that it can find prosperity by tapping into China’s growth, particularly in emerging fields like clean energy and robotics. In Hangzhou, Mr. Merz visited the humanoid robot start-up Unitree Robotics where he watched robots perform synchronized back-flips and other martial arts-inspired moves.

北京向德国推销的理念是:德国可以通过融入中国的增长——尤其是在清洁能源和机器人等新兴领域——找到繁荣。在杭州,默茨参观了人形机器人初创企业宇树科技,观看了机器人表演同步的后空翻和其他武术动作。

Mr. Xi, in his official statement, made no direct mention of Mr. Merz’s concerns. He said China would continue to provide economic opportunities, but urged Germany to view China’s rise “objectively and rationally,” and to adopt a “positive and pragmatic policy” — language that amounted to a request to stop treating Beijing as a threat.

习近平在官方声明中并未直接提及默茨的关切。他表示中国将继续提供经济机遇,但敦促德国“客观理性”看待中国崛起,并采取“积极、务实”的对华政策——这些措辞实际上是在要求德国停止将北京视为威胁。

Beijing’s ultimate goal is to pull Berlin away from Washington and weaken what China sees as a Western campaign to contain China’s rise.

北京的终极目标是令柏林远离华盛顿,削弱中国所认为的西方遏制中国崛起的阵营。

This month, Chinese state media published editorials calling for Germany to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, arguing that the U.S.-led security alliance undermines Berlin’s autonomy. The People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece, said in an editorial that the only way for Germany to “de-risk” from global threats was to “de-Americanize.”

本月,中国官方媒体刊登社论,呼吁德国退出北大西洋公约组织,称美国主导的安全联盟损害了柏林的自主性。中共喉舌《人民日报》在一篇社论中表示,德国要“去风险”应对全球威胁,唯一途径就是“去美国化”。

Mr. Merz, like other European leaders, has his own frustrations with the United States, such as over tariffs and support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. But Mr. Merz said at a conference of his center-right Christian Democrats earlier this month that the trans-Atlantic alliance would likely endure because of shared values like freedom of expression, freedom of religion and freedom of the press.

与其他欧洲领导人一样,默茨对美国也有自己的不满,例如在关税以及支持乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的问题上。但默茨本月早些时候在其所在的中右派政党基督教民主联盟的大会上表示,这个跨大西洋联盟很可能因共享价值观——言论自由、宗教自由和新闻自由——而持续存在。

Even some Chinese analysts are skeptical that Beijing’s outreach will pay off.

甚至一些中国分析人士也对北京的示好能否奏效持怀疑态度。

Li Xing, the director of European studies at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said he worried that President Trump would find new ways to punish U.S. allies that get too close to Beijing. (Mr. Trump has warned Canada and Britain that increasing trade with China was “dangerous.”)

广东外语外贸大学欧洲研究中心主任李形表示,他担心特朗普会找到新办法惩罚那些与北京走得太近的美国盟友。(特朗普曾警告加拿大和英国,增加对华贸易是“危险的”。)

“Trump’s trade war has caused many European countries a great deal of trouble, driving them to turn toward us,” Mr. Li said. “However, my concern lies in how much persistence these countries truly have. They come to China and speak in favor of us, but if Trump brandishes his trade stick, can these countries hold their ground?”

“特朗普的贸易战给许多欧洲国家带来了很大麻烦,促使它们转向我们,”李形说。“然而,我担心的是这些国家能不能坚持住。他们来中国,说一些偏向我们的话,但如果特朗普挥舞贸易大棒,这些国家还能站得住吗?”

Siyi Zhao自北京对本文有研究贡献。

David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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