AI热潮下的“K型分化”警钟：韩国台湾经济鸿沟扩大
In South Korea and Taiwan, the world’s hunger for artificial intelligence has unleashed a boom unlike anything seen in years. The two economies are home to the small cluster of companies that produce the coveted chips A.I. cannot run without.
韩国与台湾正因全球对人工智能的渴求迎来多年未见的繁荣。这两个经济体聚集了全球少数几家人工智能芯片生产商，这些芯片是支撑人工智能运转的关键所在。
As exports climb to record highs and stock markets soar, the rush to cash in has reached a fever pitch. Seniors are opening brokerage accounts to funnel their savings into semiconductor stocks. On social media, young people question the point of their jobs, saying they could earn as much — or more — trading stocks.
随着出口创下历史新高、股市持续飙升，抢搭这趟财富列车的热潮已经达到白热化。老年人纷纷开设证券账户，把积蓄投入半导体股票。有年轻人在社交媒体上质疑工作的意义，声称炒股赚到的钱与工资不相上下，甚至更多。
Yet the windfall is masking a far bleaker picture across much of the rest of the economy. Industries outside chip making are struggling to navigate a turbulent landscape upended by energy and tariff shocks. Household debt and real estate prices continue to rise. Both currencies remain weak despite repeated government interventions to prop them up.
然而，这场财富盛宴掩盖了经济其他领域更为黯淡的现实。芯片制造以外的行业正在艰难应对因能源价格上涨和关税冲击剧烈动荡的市场环境。家庭债务和房地产价格持续攀升。尽管政府多次出手干预，韩元和新台币依然疲软。
For both places, the skyrocketing growth springs from a narrow, highly specialized sector that employs only a sliver of the population. Everybody else is left scrambling to find a way in.
对它们而言，这种惊人的增长来自一个规模狭小、高度专业化的产业，而这个产业只雇用了极少数人口。其他所有人都在拼命寻找寻找入场机会。
As investors pour money into chip stocks, chasing a share of the A.I. bonanza, they are amplifying the market’s wild swings. Korean stocks plunged 10 percent on Tuesday, setting off a global tech sell-off, before rising over 3 percent a day later.
随着投资者将资金投入芯片股，试图分得人工智能红利的一杯羹，市场的剧烈波动也被进一步放大。韩国股市周二暴跌10%，引发全球科技股抛售潮，但一天后又反弹逾3%。
Economists describe the phenomenon as a “K-shaped” divide, in which some industries and socioeconomic groups thrive while others stall or fall behind. Around the world, including in the United States, that divide has widened since the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, the A.I. boom threatens to make it even more expansive.
经济学家把这种现象称为“K型分化”，即部分行业和社会群体蓬勃发展，另一些行业和群体则停滞不前甚至掉队。自新冠疫情以来，这种分化在全球范围内不断扩大，美国也不例外。如今，人工智能热潮可能会让这种差距进一步拉大。
The enormous A.I. demand, Taiwan’s central bank cautioned in a statement this month, risks creating an economy in which “different groups or industries experience drastically different economic outcomes.”
台湾央行本月也发文警告称，人工智能热潮可能造成一种“不同族群、产业或所得阶级所经历的截然不同的经济结果”。
“The wealthy thrive,” the bank said. “The low-income group struggles.”
“富裕阶级蓬勃发展，”文中写道，“低所得阶级则在困境中挣扎。”
台湾曾是木工机械等机床产品的主要出口地，但该行业如今因能源和关税冲击变得面目全非。
An Rong Xu for The New York Times
Few places illustrate that split more clearly than the homelands of the world’s semiconductor giants, where companies including Samsung, SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are reaping record profits while much of the rest struggles.
几乎没有哪个地方能比全球半导体巨头的大本营更清楚地说明这种分化。在这两个地方，三星、SK海力士和台积电等公司的利润屡创新高，其他大多数行业却步履维艰。
South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI is the world’s best-performing major stock index since the start of the year. Samsung and SK Hynix have each crossed $1 trillion in market valuation. Samsung shares have more than doubled this year, while SK Hynix has tripled. The Bank of Korea raised its economic growth forecast after exports surged. In May, South Korea’s exports rose 53 percent from a year earlier to a record monthly high.
韩国的基准股指——韩国综合股价指数(KOSPI)是今年以来全球表现最好的主要股指。三星和SK海力士的市值均已突破1万亿美元。三星股价今年上涨超过一倍，SK海力士上涨了两倍。随着出口激增，韩国央行还上调了经济增长预期。今年5月，韩国出口同比增长53%，创下单月历史新高。
Samsung and SK Hynix dominate production of the memory chips that help A.I. systems store information. These systems require enormous amounts of high-bandwidth memory, making the two conglomerates indispensable to the global A.I. build-out and all but guaranteeing demand for their products.
三星和SK海力士主导了人工智能系统所需存储芯片的生产。这类系统需要大量高带宽内存，使这两家企业集团成为全球人工智能基础设施建设中不可替代的存在，也几乎确保了其产品需求源源不断。
“Because semiconductors now account for such an outsized share of Korea’s export value, the headline numbers look strong,” said Sang-Ha Yoon, executive director of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a government-funded think tank.
韩国政府智库——韩国对外经济政策研究院执行院长尹相夏（音）表示：“由于半导体目前占韩国出口的比重如此之大，因此整体数据看起来非常强劲。”
But those figures conceal a growing divergence. Non-semiconductor exports — petrochemicals, steel, batteries, auto parts — are struggling with weak demand and intense competition from China.
然而，这些数字掩盖了日益扩大的分化。石化、钢铁、电池和汽车零部件等非半导体出口产业受到需求疲软以及来自中国激烈竞争的双重打击。
“The same headline that reads ‘Korea is doing well’ also reads: ‘Korea is doing well in a very narrow way,’” Mr. Yoon said.
“一则题为‘韩国经济表现良好’的新闻其实也意味着：韩国只是以一种非常狭窄的方式表现良好。”尹相夏说。
三星和SK海力士主导了全球高带宽存储芯片市场，这类芯片是先进人工智能系统的关键组成部分。
台积电今年迄今营收已超过600亿美元，同比增长30%，其产品需求随着全球人工智能的普及而急剧攀升。
For workers outside the A.I. sector, Mr. Yoon continued, “the lived experience can be one of higher costs and stagnant real wages.”
他继续指出，对于人工智能行业之外的劳动者而言，“切身感受可能是生活成本不断升高，实际工资却停滞不前”。
As the benefits of the boom become increasingly concentrated, many South Koreans have started looking to the stock market to share in the gains.
随着繁荣的果实越来越集中，许多韩国人开始将目光投向股市，以期分享收益。
Last month, stockbrokers reported that South Korean seniors were cashing in life insurance policies and retirement savings to buy chip stocks. Nearly 83 percent of net stock purchases by retail investors on the KOSPI this year have been Samsung or SK Hynix, according to Young Gon Lee, an analyst at Toss Securities.
上个月，多家券商报告称，许多韩国老年人正在兑现人寿保单、动用退休储蓄购买芯片股。Toss证券的分析师李永坤（音）表示，今年散户投资者在KOSPI的净买入中，近83%流向了三星或SK海力士。
“We are seeing capital that had remained in safer assets move into riskier assets in search of higher expected returns,” Mr. Lee said.
李永坤表示：“我们看到，原本停留在较安全资产中的资金正在流向风险较高的资产，以追求更高的预期回报。”
The enthusiasm extends to Taiwan, which last month overtook India to become the world’s fifth-largest equity market. TSMC, which manufactures the world’s most advanced A.I. chips, accounts for more than 40 percent of the value of Taiwan’s benchmark index and carries a market capitalization approaching $2 trillion.
这种热情同样蔓延到了台湾。上个月，台湾超越印度，成为全球第五大股票市场。生产全球最先进人工智能芯片的台积电市值已接近2万亿美元，占台湾基准股指的40%以上。
The chip frenzy has helped propel Taiwan to some of the fastest growth rates in the world. The economy expanded nearly 13 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and almost 15 percent in the first three months of this year.
芯片狂潮推动台湾成为全球增长最快的经济体之一。2025年第四季度，台湾经济增长接近13%；今年一季度增速更是接近15%。
But that has not translated into broader wage gains, said Dachrahn Wu, executive director of an economic research center at National Central University in Taoyuan. Most Taiwanese workers are employed outside the tech sector and earn less than $1,500 a month, Mr. Wu said. The small group of high earners can save and invest. Most cannot.
但这并没有转化为更广泛的薪资增长，位于桃园的国立中央大学经济发展研究中心执行长吴大任说。他表示，台湾的大多数劳动力受雇于科技行业之外，月收入不到1500美元。只有少数高收入群体有能力储蓄和投资，大多数人没有这样的条件。
Taiwan’s economic growth accrues mostly for the wealthy, such as TSMC shareholders, Mr. Wu said. “But the salaries of ordinary people haven’t grown much.”
吴大任说，台湾的经济增长成果主要流向富人，比如台积电股东。“但是一般人，他们的薪水其实并没有太大的成长。”
Semiconductors and other technology products account for the vast majority of Taiwan’s exports, said Ma Tieying, a senior economist at DBS Bank in Singapore. Other export-dependent industries, meanwhile, have been hit hard by tariffs and weakening demand.
新加坡星展银行高级经济学家马铁英表示，半导体及其他科技产品占台湾出口的绝大部分。与此同时，其他依赖出口的产业却受到关税和需求疲软的沉重打击。
生产木工机械的龙德机械总经理张银恭表示，关税已迫使许多台湾企业调整经营方式。
Taichung, a central Taiwanese city, was once a hub for machine tools, home to hundreds of thriving small businesses. But tariffs have transformed the industry, said Ian Chang, the second-generation general manager of Innovator Machinery Company, which makes woodworking machinery.
台中曾是机床产业重镇，拥有数百家欣欣向荣的小企业。但关税已使这一行业面目全非，生产木工机械的龙德机械第二代总经理张银恭说。
Many companies have gone out of business, and others have put day laborers on unpaid leave — widening the gap between workers in traditional manufacturing and those with steady jobs in the technology sector.
许多公司已相继倒闭，还有一些让临时工无薪休假——这进一步拉大了传统制造业工人与科技行业稳定就业者之间的收入鸿沟。
Mark Ke has run his family’s textile manufacturing business, Ecomax Textile Company, in nearby Changhua, for nearly five decades. The company pioneered the use of plastic bottles and other recycled items to make fabric, supplying international brands including the British retailer Marks & Spencer and producing material used in the balls for the 2014 FIFA World Cup.
在台中附近的彰化，柯汉哲经营家族纺织制造企业富胜纺织已近50年。该公司率先使用塑料瓶和其他可回收物品来生产面临，为包括英国零售商玛莎百货在内的国际品牌供货，并为2014年国际足联世界杯比赛用球生产材料。
Since then, however, textile manufacturers have faced growing competition from rivals in China and Southeast Asia. Rather than shoring up the sector, the government provided incentives like tax breaks and infrastructure for the island’s prized chip makers, Mr. Ke said.
然而，在那之后，纺织业面临来自中国和东南亚竞争者越来越激烈的挑战。柯汉哲表示，政府没有扶持这个行业，而是选择通过税收优惠和基础设施建设等方式大力支持芯片企业。
“The direction of government support is entirely misplaced. It’s primarily focused on the A.I. industry,” he said. Textile products fell by the wayside.
“政府的支援度方向不对、大不对，基本上以AI那个产业（为主），”他说。纺织产品被边缘化。
Questions about who benefits from the technology windfall have become a source of political and labor tension in South Korea.
谁从科技的财富盛宴中受益的问题已逐渐成为韩国政治和劳资紧张的根源。
柯汉哲是富胜纺织的总经理，该公司利用塑料瓶和渔网等回收材料生产纺织品。
An Rong Xu for The New York Times
Last month, workers at Samsung threatened a strike that would have disrupted the national economy and the global technology supply chain, demanding that the company commit 15 percent of its operating profit to employee bonuses. Samsung agreed to 10.5 percent.
上个月，三星员工曾威胁举行罢工，这场罢工一旦发生，不仅会冲击韩国经济，还可能扰乱全球科技供应链。他们要求公司将营业利润的15%用于员工奖金，最终三星同意给出10.5%。
Should Samsung reach the roughly $200 billion in operating profit this year projected by some financial analysts, workers in its semiconductor division could receive bonuses of as much as $430,000, a spokesman for Samsung said. The average monthly wage in South Korea last year was around $2,800, according to government data.
三星发言人表示，若三星今年的营业利润达到部分金融分析师预测的约2000亿美元，其半导体部门的员工可能获得最高可达43万美元的奖金。根据韩国政府数据，去年韩国的平均月工资约为2800美元。
Asked at the company’s annual shareholders meeting this month whether TSMC might adopt a similar arrangement, its chairman, C.C. Wei, said the company had increased employee bonuses over the past three years.
在本月股东大会上，当被问及台积电是否会采取类似做法时，董事长魏哲家表示，公司过去三年已经持续提高员工奖金。
The dispute at Samsung may be an early sign of a wider debate over how the gains from artificial intelligence should be shared.
三星的劳资纠纷或许预示着未来更广泛的辩论：人工智能创造的财富究竟应该如何分配。
Before workers reached an agreement with the company, Kim Yong-beom, chief of staff to Lee Jae Myung, South Korea’s president, floated the idea of using tax revenues from companies benefiting from A.I. demand to fund what he called a “national dividend.”
在三星与员工达成协议之前，韩国总统李在明的政策室长金容范曾提出一种构想：利用受益于人工智能热潮企业所缴纳的税收发放所谓“国民红利”。
4月，三星电子的工会成员在韩国平泽举行抗议活动。
“The critical concern is the potential for the excess profits generated in the A.I. era to structurally exacerbate the ‘K-shaped’ economic divide within society,” Mr. Kim wrote in a Facebook post that has now been deleted.
金容范在一篇现已删除的Facebook帖子中写道：“关键的担忧在于，人工智能时代产生的超额利润可能会在结构上加剧社会内部的‘K型’经济分化。”
Allocating a portion of these profits to workers should not be viewed merely as an act of redistribution, Mr. Kim said, but a “necessary cost for maintaining the stability of the entire system.”
他表示，将这些利润的一部分分配给劳动者不应被单纯视为一种再分配行为，而是“维护整个体系稳定的必要成本”。