Once again in recent days, Europe has seemed to be watching from the sidelines as its destiny is shaped by outside forces.

近日，欧洲再次显得像是在旁观席上，眼睁睁看着自己的命运被外部力量所塑造。

Would President Trump choose to restart a massive war with Iran and drive up the cost of oil? Would global warming drive wider and worse wildfires, even as several already raged across the continent? Would a sudden, unexplained surge of people across the Moroccan border into a Spanish exclave — almost all of whom were immediately sent back — divide the bloc’s leaders and fuel the far right?

特朗普总统是否会选择重启对伊朗的大规模战争并推高油价？在全球变暖背景下，即便多地已爆发肆虐的野火，这场横跨欧洲大陆的灾难是否还会进一步扩大和恶化？人群突然原因不明地大量涌入摩洛哥边境另一侧的西班牙飞地——且几乎所有人都在第一时间被遣返——这是否会造成欧盟领导人的分裂，并为极右翼势力推波助澜？

It has already been a brutal summer for Europe: two wars, record heat, rising inflation and deep anxiety about food, energy and security. The back-to-back crises are prompting calls for joint action, urgent Zoom meetings between different groups of presidents and prime ministers, and political hand-wringing in parliaments from Poland to the United Kingdom.

对欧洲而言，这个夏天本已经很残酷：两场战争、创纪录的高温、不断飙升的通胀，以及对食品、能源和安全的深深焦虑。接踵而至的危机引发了要求采取共同行动的呼声，促成了不同国家总统和首相之间的紧急Zoom视频会议，也让从波兰到英国的各国议会陷入了政治焦虑。

But like so much else that has happened in the past several years, many of Europe’s challenges are out of its control.

但正如过去几年发生的诸多事件一样，欧洲面临的许多挑战根本不在其掌控之中。

The Iran war — a conflict that most of Europe never wanted — has disrupted life across the region, driving up the price of gas, groceries and travel. The continent’s leaders have pledged to help secure the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz once the fighting ends. And yet, they seem destined to hear about the next stage of the war from Mr. Trump’s social media feed.

伊朗战争——这场绝大多数欧洲国家从未希望爆发的冲突——打破了该地区原本的生活节奏，推高了汽油、食品杂货和出行的成本。欧洲大陆的领导人已承诺，一旦战事结束，将协助确保霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输安全。然而，他们似乎注定只能通过特朗普的社交媒体动态来获知这场战争的下一阶段动向。

Europe has been unable to resolve the war in Ukraine after more than four years of bloodshed. Its achievements in cutting emissions to combat climate change are overshadowed by the actions of the United States and China. The future of A.I. is being shaped largely elsewhere. Right wing populism has risen, fueled by migration, inequality and misinformation.

在经历流血冲突四年多后，欧洲依然未能解决乌克兰战争问题。其在减少排放以应对气候变化方面取得的成就被美国和中国的举措掩盖。人工智能未来的塑造基本与欧洲无关。在移民、不平等和虚假信息的推波助澜下，右翼民粹主义势力抬头。

“No matter how you look at it, measure it, this is a difficult, unsettling time for Europe,” said Richard Haass, who served for two decades as the president of the Council on Foreign Relations. He said Europe is partly a victim of circumstance, but also is responsible for its lack of authority over its own fate.

在美国外交关系协会担任了二十年主席的理查德·哈斯表示：“无论你从哪个角度看，怎么去衡量，这都是欧洲一个艰难而动荡不安的时期。”他指出，欧洲在一定程度上是外部环境的受害者，但对自己的命运缺乏控制权则是自己造成的。

上周防空警报期间，人们在基辅的一个地铁站内避难。

“It’s not just that they’ve under-spent, but they’ve underorganized themselves when it comes to their own security,” he said. “It’s essentially a bystander, with few exceptions, to the A.I. competition. That’s not something that was done to Europe by the United States or China. That was something that was done by Europe to itself.”

“这不仅是因为他们在自身安全方面的投入不足，更是因为他们在组织管理上不够完善，”他说。“除了少数例外，他们在人工智能的竞争中本质上只是个旁观者。这不是美国或中国强加给欧洲的，而是要归咎于欧洲自己。”

On many fronts, Europe has acted.

在许多战线上，欧洲确实采取了行动。

When Russia invaded Ukraine more than four years ago, Europe and Britain immediately took steps to support Ukraine, including sending billions of dollars in aid, sanctioning Russia and welcoming millions of Ukrainian refugees into their countries through special programs.

四年多前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，欧洲和英国立即采取措施支持乌克兰，包括提供数十亿美元的援助、制裁俄罗斯，并通过特别项目接收了数百万乌克兰难民进入其国家。

After Mr. Trump re-entered the White House in 2025 and signaled a warmer stance toward President Vladimir V. Putin, Britain, France, Germany and other European nations formed the “Coalition of the Willing” to try to protect Ukraine’s interests in any peace deal, and worked behind closed doors to reconcile the Ukrainian and American presidents. Those efforts helped prevent Mr. Putin from cutting a deal with Mr. Trump at Ukraine’s expense.

在特朗普于2025年重新入主白宫并向普京发出更温和的信号后，英国、法国、德国和其他欧洲国家组成了“意愿联盟”，试图在任何和平协议中保护乌克兰的利益，并在幕后努力调和乌克兰和美国总统之间的关系。这些努力有助于防止普京与特朗普以牺牲乌克兰为代价达成协议。

But while the coalition has repeatedly stated that “no arrangements regarding European interests and security can be negotiated without Europeans,” that has proved difficult to enforce. Time and again, Mr. Trump has sidelined America’s allies in favor of direct — and largely fruitless — talks with either Russia or Ukraine.

然而，尽管该联盟多次声明“没有欧洲人参与，不得就涉及欧洲利益和安全的事宜进行谈判”，但这已被证明难以付诸施行。特朗普一次又一次地边缘化美国的盟友，转而与俄罗斯或乌克兰进行直接——但基本上毫无成果的——谈判。

“For years, European leaders have spoken about strategic autonomy and Europe’s emergence as a serious security actor,” Lesia Ogryzko, the director of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center in Kyiv, wrote for the Atlantic Council. “The coming months may provide the clearest test yet of whether those ambitions are realistic.”

“多年来，欧洲领导人一直在谈论战略自主以及欧洲作为重要安全参与者的崛起，”基辅萨海达奇尼安全中心主任莱西娅·奥格里兹科在为大西洋理事会撰文时写道。“未来几个月可能会迎来最清晰的考验，检验这些雄心是否现实。”

They have had less influence over the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, even though its effects are felt keenly across the continent. Europe’s vocal opposition to Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war enraged the American leader and soured trans-Atlantic relations.

他们对美以针对伊朗的战争影响力更小，尽管这场冲突对整个欧洲大陆都有着切肤之痛。欧洲强烈反对特朗普的开战决定，这激怒了这位美国领导人，并使跨大西洋关系恶化。

In April, partly as an effort to repair relations with Mr. Trump, Britain and France announced an effort to organize a military operation that could help protect free and open travel through the Strait of Hormuz once a lasting cease-fire was agreed to. But the on-again, off-again fighting between the United States and Iran has made it too dangerous for the operation to begin. Diplomats from several European countries said the possibility that they will send military ships to help remove mines from the strait or escort tankers is essentially on hold until it becomes clear whether the war is truly on pause.

4月，英法两国宣布将筹划一项军事行动，拟在达成持久停火协议后协助保障霍尔木兹海峡的自由通航与开放通行，这在一定程度上是为了修复与特朗普的关系。然而，美伊之间时断时续的交火令这项行动难以启动。多位欧洲国家外交官表示，在局势明朗、确定战事真正暂停之前，派遣军舰赴霍尔木兹海峡协助扫雷或护航的可能性暂时不存在。

上个月，波斯湾霍尔木兹海峡附近的船只。

Mr. Trump has threatened in recent days to dramatically escalate strikes on Iran if the regime does not agree to open the strait. On Tuesday, the president told Fox News that Iran would be “hit very hard” if the crucial waterway was not opened very soon.

特朗普近日威胁称，如果伊朗政权不同意开放该海峡，将大幅升级对伊朗的打击。周二，总统告诉福克斯新闻，如果这条关键水道不能在短期内开放，伊朗将遭到“非常沉重的打击”。

Even as the Iran crisis has continued, wildfires have been raging across Europe, where swaths of bright red on the weather maps indicated the unprecedented heat waves that have become increasingly frequent.

就在伊朗危机持续的同时，欧洲各地还在肆虐着野火，天气图上大片的鲜红色预示着前所未有的热浪，且这种现象正变得日益频繁。

For most of the past two decades, European countries have mostly been in agreement about the dangers posed by climate change and have acted to cut emissions and invest in renewable energy. But since Mr. Trump’s arrival in the United States, they have been at odds with one of the world’s largest polluters, making their efforts to confront the changing climate more difficult.

在过去二十年的大部分时间里，欧洲国家在面对气候变化带来的危险方面基本保持一致，并采取行动减少排放和投资可再生能源。但自特朗普执政以来，他们一直与这个全球最大的污染国之一意见相左，从而导致应对气候变化的努力变得更加困难。

Now, it is clear that countries in the region are facing the consequences of global warming, with average temperatures rising faster than on any other continent. Britons are living through the driest July in nearly two centuries. Fires have displaced more than 300,000 people in France and Spain. In Greece, firefighters died battling blazes that are yet to be fully controlled.

如今，该地区的国家显然正面临着全球变暖的后果，平均气温上升速度快于任何其他大洲。英国人正经历着近两个世纪以来最干旱的7月。火灾在法国和西班牙已导致30多万人流离失所。在希腊，消防员在扑灭尚未完全得到控制的大火时殉职。

The surge last week of tens of thousands of people into Ceuta, a tiny Spanish territory on the North African coast, raised the possibility of a new crisis that is testing European unity on one of the region’s most potent political issues.

上周成千上万的人涌入位于北非海岸的西班牙微型领土休达，这可能酿成新一轮的危机，考验着欧洲在这一地区最为敏感的政治议题上的团结。

周六，跨越摩洛哥边境后抵达西班牙休达的移民。

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s left-wing prime minister, has become famous for his welcoming approach to some migrants, particularly workers from Latin America. But he has taken a tougher approach with people attempting to illegally cross Spain’s borders with Morocco. He cracked down on the arrivals in Ceuta quickly with his country’s military, and most were sent back over the weekend. A floating barrier is being set up near a sea wall between the two countries.

西班牙左翼首相佩德罗·桑切斯以对部分移民采取欢迎态度而闻名，尤其是来自拉丁美洲的劳动者。但他对试图非法跨越西班牙与摩洛哥边境的人采取了更强硬的手段。他迅速动用本国军队对休达的入境人员进行了打击，绝大多数人在周末被遣返。两国之间的海墙附近正在建立起一道浮动屏障。

The incident exposed tensions within the European Union that have grown deeper in recent years, as far-right parties including the Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally have seized on fear of migrants as a way to energize political supporters. Almost two dozen E.U. countries lashed out at Spain in the hours after the migrants arrived in Ceuta, with some calling for suspending the country from the bloc’s free-movement zone. Mr. Sánchez responded by calling those nations “selfish.”

该事件暴露了近年来欧盟内部日益加深的高层紧张局势，包括德国选择党和法国国民联盟在内的极右翼政党利用对移民的恐惧来激发政治支持者的热情。在移民抵达休达后的几个小时内，近二十个欧盟国家猛烈抨击了西班牙，一些国家甚至呼吁暂停该国在欧盟内部自由流动区（申根区）的资格。桑切斯对此回应，称这些国家“自私”。

Some analysts noted that the lack of solidarity with Spain at a time when it faced an external threat was an indication of the difficulty that the continent has in projecting authority on the global stage.

一些分析人士指出，面对外部威胁，各方对西班牙缺乏声援，这恰恰折射出欧洲大陆在全球舞台上投射影响力的力不从心。

Mr. Haass, of the Council on Foreign Relations, said he thinks the lack of unity underscores the fundamental problem for Europe as it seeks to shape its future.

外交关系协会的哈斯表示，他认为缺乏团结凸显了欧洲在试图塑造自身未来时面临的根本问题。

“The whole,” he said, “is much less than the sum of its parts.”

“整体，”他说，“远小于部分之和。”