One December afternoon, the sky tore open and a fiery hunk of metal, wider than a school bus, came hurtling down.

去年12月的一个下午，天空撕开了一道口子，一块比校车还宽的炽热金属从天而降。

It was louder than a thunderclap when it plunged into a patch of farmland, startling everyone in the village of Mukuku, about three hours south of Nairobi, Kenya.

它坠入肯尼亚首都内罗毕以南约三小时车程的穆库库村一片农田，发出了比雷霆还响的轰鸣声，惊吓到了村里的每一个人。

“People were thinking this is the end of the world,” said John Mukunuu, who lives nearby.

“人们还以为这是世界末日到了，”住在附近的约翰·穆库努说道。

When the villagers arrived, they found a giant ring, taller than a man and heavier than a horse, lodged into the earth. They watched it cool from a glowing ember to a dull gray. They guarded it, taking the occasional selfie, until officials from the capital swarmed the village.

村民们赶到现场，发现了一个巨大的金属环，一人多高，比马还重，深塞在泥土中。他们看着它从一块耀眼的余烬冷却成暗灰色。他们守着它，不时和它自拍，直到来自首都的官员蜂拥至这个村庄。

The ring had once connected parts of a rocket. It was supposed to have burned up on its return to Earth.

这个金属环曾用于一个火箭连接部件。它原本应该在返回地球时烧毁。

“This is an isolated event,” the Kenya Space Agency said in early 2025.

“这是一个孤立事件，”肯尼亚航天局在2025年初表示。

Not exactly.

事实并非如此。

More space debris is raining down on Earth than ever before — one effect of the frenetic race among governments and companies like SpaceX to reign over the skies.

坠落地球的空间碎片比以往任何时候都要多——这是各国政府以及像SpaceX这样的公司为了掌控天空而展开的狂热竞赛所带来的影响之一。

Last year, the U.S. Space Force issued alerts for nearly 820 objects entering the Earth’s atmosphere. The government issued alerts for 110 objects a decade ago.

去年，美国太空军针对进入地球大气层的近820个物体发布了预警。而十年前政府发布的预警仅为110个。

“The re-entries happen each and every day,” said Mariusz Slonina, who heads space situational awareness operations for the Polish Space Agency. Huge objects weighing a metric ton or more arrive about once a week, he said.

“再入大气层的事件每天都在发生，”波兰航天局空间态势感知行动负责人马里乌什·斯洛尼纳表示。他指出，重达一吨或更重的巨型物体大约每周就会降落一次。

Much of the debris incinerates in the atmosphere or splashes into the Pacific, but when it does not, it plummets to the ground, uncontrolled and unpredictable.

绝大多数碎片在大气层中烧毁或落入太平洋，但未能完全烧毁时，它们就会不受控制且不可预测地坠落到地面。

The more objects humans launch into orbit, the more debris they will have to dodge on Earth. More than 300 rockets launched last year, nearly four times as many as a decade ago. That means many more bits and spent parts are expected to drop back.

人类向轨道发射的物体越多，在地球上不得不躲避的碎片也就越多。去年发射的火箭超过300枚，几乎是十年前的四倍。这意味着预计将有更多残骸和废弃部件掉落回来。

Dying satellites are another common detritus of this space age. A good number of the roughly 16,000 satellites in orbit will ultimately come back to Earth.

报废的卫星是这个太空时代另一种常见的残骸。在轨道上的大约1.6万颗卫星中，相当一部分最终都将返回地球。

In 2024, discarded hardware from the International Space Station crashed into a Florida home. Early last year, part of a SpaceX rocket landed near a busy shopping mall in Poznan, Poland. Another piece was found near the city’s airport, according to the Polish Space Agency.

2024年，国际空间站废弃的硬件砸中了佛罗里达州的一户民宅。去年年初，SpaceX火箭的一部分掉落在波兰波兹南一家繁忙的购物中心附近。据波兰航天局称，另一块碎片在该市的机场附近被发现。

Months later, a defunct Chinese satellite barreled down over Tenerife, one of the Canary Islands of Spain. The three-metric-ton satellite sent shock waves across the region before fragmenting and burning in the air.

几个月后，一颗失效的中国卫星在西班牙加那利群岛之一的特内里费岛上空急速坠落，令该地区陷入一片恐慌，最终这颗重达三吨的卫星在空中解体烧毁。

In October, miners discovered burning debris on a desert road in Western Australia. Recently, giant “space balls” washed ashore on an Australian beach.

10月，矿工们在西澳大利亚一条沙漠公路边发现了燃烧的碎片。最近，巨型“太空球”被冲上了澳大利亚的海滩。

The patchwork of regulation governing rocket launches and orbital junk is no match for the pace of space development.

针对火箭发射和轨道垃圾的监管只是一些东拼西凑的规章，根本赶不上太空发展的步伐。

Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which has more than 10,000 satellites in orbit, has applied to launch a million more. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origins has similar ambitions and Chinese “megaconstellations” are expected to have hundreds of thousands of satellites.

埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX公司在轨道上拥有超过1万颗卫星，并已申请再发射100万颗。杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源也有类似的野心；中国的“巨型星座”预计将拥有数十万颗卫星。

For now, people are more likely to be struck by lightning than by falling space junk. The only documented case is of an Oklahoma woman who was hit by debris in the 1990s. She survived relatively unharmed.

目前而言，人们被雷劈中的概率要高于被坠落的太空垃圾击中。唯一有记录的案例是1990年代一位俄克拉荷马州妇女被碎片击中，她幸存了下来，几乎没有受伤。

But those odds are shifting. A study for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration concluded that by 2035, debris from SpaceX satellites alone could kill or injure someone every two years.

但这种概率正在改变。美国联邦航空管理局的一项研究得出结论，到2035年，仅来自SpaceX卫星的碎片就可能每两年造成一人死亡或受伤。

The risk diminishes if satellites burn up in the atmosphere, the study concluded. For a while, SpaceX said that all its returning satellites incinerated. Then, in 2024, a chunk of SpaceX metal was found on a Canadian farm. SpaceX, which previously disagreed with the F.A.A. report, did not respond to questions. The company now says that about 5 percent of the mass of some satellites may not disintegrate.

该研究总结道，如果卫星在大气层中烧毁，风险就会降低。有一段时间，SpaceX表示其所有返回的卫星都会烧毁。然而在2024年，一座加拿大农场上发现了更大块的SpaceX金属。曾对管理局报告持不同意见的SpaceX未回应提问。该公司现在表示，某些卫星约5%的质量可能不会分解。

Sean O’Keefe, a Syracuse University professor and former NASA administrator, said: “Humans have a lot of failure of imagination. We just can’t imagine that it will happen to us.”

雪城大学教授、前美国国家航空航天局局长肖恩·奥基夫表示：“人类的想象力时常跟不上。我们就是无法想象这种事会发生在自己身上。”

“All it’s got to do is show up in a major metropolitan area,” he added.

“它只需要掉落在一个主要大都会地区就行了，”他补充道。

Mr. O’Keefe and other experts say that governments and companies should be compelled to use materials that will fully disintegrate.

奥基夫和其他专家表示，应强制要求政府和公司使用能够完全分解的材料。

No such regulation exists. In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission requires companies to report on the risk of casualties from falling satellites, but the agency mostly focuses on regulating radio frequencies.

目前尚不存在此类法规。在美国，联邦通信委员会要求公司报告坠落卫星造成人员伤亡的风险，但该机构主要关注于监管无线电频率。

The F.A.A., which oversees launches, proposed a rule to regulate the disposal of orbital debris but it withdrew the idea in January after the space industry pushed back.

负责监管发射的航空管理局曾提出一项规范轨道垃圾处置的规则，但在航天工业界的反对下，该机构于1月撤回了这一提议。

United Nations treaties govern liability for space debris that hurts people or damages property, but those are Cold War relics with limited scope. The U.N. issued guidelines for space debris in 2007, when there were far fewer satellites. Those guidelines are nonbinding.

监管对伤人或损坏财产的太空碎片责任的是联合国条约，但这些都是冷战时期的产物，适用范围有限。联合国在2007年卫星数量少得多的时候发布了太空碎片指南，而这些指南并不具备约束力。

If objects are in free fall, even the best rocket scientists cannot accurately predict where they will land or whether they will fully incinerate. A one-minute error in predicting re-entry changes the landing zone by nearly 300 miles, according to the Aerospace Corporation, a nonprofit research group.

如果物体处于自由落体状态，即便是最顶尖的火箭科学家也无法准确预测它们会落在哪里或是否会完全烧毁。据非营利研究机构航天公司称，预测再入大气层的时间哪怕出现一分钟的误差，落地区域就会相差近480公里。

In January, for example, a fireball pierced the atmosphere over Europe. It was the upper stage of a Zhuque-3 rocket, out of control after a Chinese firm, Landspace, launched it the previous month.

例如，在今年1月，一个火球划破了欧洲上空的大气层。这是朱雀三号火箭的上面级，由中国公司蓝箭航天于前一个月发射，随后失控。

Space agencies across the world monitored the object for four days. It was so heavy — about 11 metric tons — that they did not expect it to incinerate.

世界各地的航天机构对该物体监测了四天。它太重了——大约11吨——以至于他们预计它不会完全烧毁。

Governments feared that it could plunge into heavily populated areas. British officials told mobile networks to test the emergency alert system.

各国政府担心它可能会坠入人口稠密的地区。英国官员要求移动网络测试紧急警报系统。

“The last hours, last orbits were over Europe, and it was really dangerous,” said Mr. Slonina of the Polish Space Agency.

“最后的几小时、最后的轨道是在欧洲上空，这真的很危险，”波兰航天局的斯洛尼纳表示。

In the end, the debris splashed down somewhere in the Indian or Pacific Oceans.

最终，碎片坠落在了印度洋或太平洋的某个地方。

Rocket debris is stoking geopolitical tensions.

火箭残骸正在激化地缘政治紧张局势。

China’s newest launchpad is in Hainan, an island off the country’s southern coast.

中国最新的发射场位于海南，这是中国南部沿海的一个岛屿。

Many of the surrounding drop zones, where debris is likely to fall, are in contested waters in the South China Sea.

周围许多可能落入碎片的落区，都位于南海存在争议的水域。

Filipino fishermen have for years faced confrontations with the Chinese Coast Guard in these waters. These days, they also have to watch for rocket debris.

多年来，菲律宾渔民在这些水域一直面临着与中国海警的对峙。如今，他们还必须时刻提防火箭残骸。

The Philippine authorities advise against going to sea whenever China notifies pilots or mariners about a launch from Hainan, said Gay Jane P. Perez, director general of the Philippine Space Agency.

菲律宾航天局局长盖伊·简·P·佩雷斯表示，每当中国通知飞行员或船员有关海南发射的消息时，菲律宾当局都会建议不要出海。

Thirteen rocket pieces, some the size of small boats, have washed ashore in the Philippines in the past four years. Most had markings with Chinese characters or parts of the Chinese flag, the space agency said.

过去四年里，有13块火箭碎片（有些如小船般大小）被冲上了菲律宾海岸。该航天局表示，大多数碎片上都有中文文字或中国国旗图案的标识。

“Before, we were looking at access to the sea. Now we’re even getting rocket debris,” Dr. Perez said.

“以前，我们关注的是出海通道。现在我们甚至还要面对火箭残骸，”佩雷斯说。

Who pays if space junk hits you or your home?

如果太空垃圾击中你或你的房屋，谁负责？

If the debris belongs to a company or an agency in your country, the local legal system settles the liability questions.

如果碎片属于你所在国的公司或机构，当地的法律体系将解决责任问题。

If not, your country will likely rely on U.N. treaties to recoup costs.

如果不是，你所在的国家可能会依赖联合国条约来追回损失。

The liability convention, for one, gives countries the right to compensation if another state’s space object hurts people or damages property. Another treaty, called the Rescue and Return Agreement, allows governments to be paid for the cost of returning space objects.

例如，责任公约赋予相关国家在另一国的太空物体造成人员伤亡或财产损失时获得赔偿的权利。另一项名为《救助和归还协定》的条约允许政府获得归还太空物体的费用补偿。

But the treaties were written in the early space age, when countries were more concerned about astronauts becoming prisoners of war or technology being stolen, said Rosanna Deim-Hoffmann, who works on law and policy issues at the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs.

但联合国外层空间事务厅法律和政策官员罗珊娜·戴姆-霍夫曼表示，这些条约起草于航天时代的早期，当时各国更关心的是宇航员成为战俘或技术被盗。

The terms are now being applied in a more commercial and complex space environment, she added.

她补充说，这些条款现在正被应用于一个更加商业化和复杂的太空环境中。

“The way the treaty was drafted is not the way the treaty is used nowadays,” she said.

“条约起草的方式并非如今使用该条约的方式，”她说。

The first step, then, is confirming where the debris came from. That means everyday people are at the mercy of their governments.

因此，第一步是确认碎片来自何处。这意味着普通老百姓只能依靠政府。

In Kenya, the authorities took months to confirm that the ring was a part of a French rocket that had launched an American television satellite. The debris orbited Earth for more than 16 years before crashing, according to the French space agency.

在肯尼亚，当局花了数月时间才确认该金属环是发射美国电视卫星的一枚法国火箭的一部分。据法国航天局称，该残骸在坠毁前绕地球轨道运行了超过16年。

Kenya’s government has not formally requested compensation from France, the French Foreign Ministry said. It also has not shared this information with the village residents, who said that the impact cracked nearby homes, according to Daniel Maanzo, a senator who represents the area.

法国外交部表示，肯尼亚政府尚未正式向法国提出赔偿要求。据代表该地区的参议员丹尼尔·马安佐称，肯尼亚政府也没有向村民透露这一信息，而村民们表示撞击震裂了附近的房屋。

“The government says they have first to identify the owner of the object, because that’s the one who is the source of negligence,” Mr. Maanzo said.

“政府说他们必须首先确定物体的所有者，因为那才是疏忽的源头，”马安佐说。

“That didn’t happen,” he said. “There was no compensation.”

“但那并没有发生，”他说。“没有任何赔偿。”