美国封锁下，伊朗的能源出口如何继续流向中国
The conflict in the Middle East provided a painfully awkward backdrop to this week’s meetings between President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping.
中东冲突为上周特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平的会晤提供了一个令人极为尴尬的背景。
Mr. Trump, waging war on Iran, is also trying to cut off Iran’s income from oil exports. China is by far the world’s biggest customer for that oil. Mr. Trump’s Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has accused China of effectively financing terrorism by purchasing Iranian oil.
特朗普正在对伊朗发动战争，同时试图切断伊朗的石油出口收入。而中国目前是全球最大的伊朗石油买家。特朗普的财政部长斯科特·贝森特指责中国购买伊朗石油的行为实际上是在资助恐怖主义。
So last month, the U.S. Navy deployed a vast sea blockade, starting in the Gulf of Oman, giving it the power to decide which ships get through to China and other destinations in Asia.
因此，上个月，美国海军从阿曼湾开始部署了大规模的海上封锁，使其有能力决定哪些船只可以前往中国及亚洲其他目的地。
U.S. officials say the blockade has been very effective, having intercepted more than 70 vessels. Ships have been stopped off Iran’s coast and even far beyond. One China-bound ship carrying Iranian oil, the Majestic X, was recently seized in the Indian Ocean, more than 2,000 miles from the Gulf of Oman.
美国官员表示，封锁非常有效，已拦截超过70艘船只。这些船只在伊朗沿海甚至更远的地方被截停。最近，一艘名为“Majestic X”、运载伊朗石油驶向中国的油轮在距离阿曼湾3200多公里的印度洋遭到扣押。
A complete picture of ship traffic in the region is difficult to ascertain. Ships routinely turn off their location trackers, use spoofing to falsify positions and sail under false flags. Or they transfer Iranian oil from one ship to another smaller ship, making its origin hard to detect. Sometimes vessels deploy all of those tactics together. Between April 19 and May 3, there was a 600 percent increase in the number of ships engaged in deceptive tactics, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence firm.
要完整掌握该地区的船舶航行情况其实相当困难。船只经常关闭定位追踪器、利用“欺骗定位”伪造位置，或者悬挂虚假的船旗航行。还有些船会把伊朗石油从一艘船转运到另一艘更小的船上，从而掩盖石油来源。有时，一艘船会同时使用所有这些手段。海事情报公司Windward的数据显示，从4月19日至5月3日，使用欺骗手段的船舶数量增加了600%。
But what is clear, according to a New York Times analysis of satellite images and other shipping data, is that some ships carrying Iranian oil that left around the time or after the U.S. blockade was implemented are now nearing East Asia.
但根据《纽约时报》对卫星图像和其他航运数据的分析，可以明确的是，一些在美国实施海上封锁前后运载伊朗石油驶离的船只，目前正驶近东亚。
Here are three ships that illustrate how Iranian vessels are heading toward China.
透过下面这三艘船，可以看到伊朗船驶向中国的现实路径。
The Huge: A large Iranian ship operating with its location tracker off, taking an uncommon route
“Huge”号：一艘关闭定位追踪器、选择非常规航线的伊朗大型油轮
Sources: Kpler; Airbus; United Against Nuclear Iran; TankerTrackers.com; Planet Labs; Copernicus Sentinel-2.
The Huge, an Iran-flagged oil tanker, loaded oil at Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude oil export terminal, and transited the Strait of Hormuz in early April, according to satellite images. It then appeared to have left the Gulf of Oman, passing the blockade around when it started on April 13.
根据卫星图像，悬挂伊朗国旗的大型油轮“Huge”号在伊朗主要的原油出口码头哈尔克岛完成装载后，于4月初穿越霍尔木兹海峡，随后似乎离开阿曼湾，在封锁约于4月13日启动前后驶出封锁区域。
Throughout the large tanker’s journey, its location tracker was off. The ship, laden with about two million barrels of Iranian crude, turned its tracker on briefly in early May, when it appeared off the coast of Indonesia in the Lombok Strait.
这艘大型油轮在整个航行过程中，定位追踪器始终处于关闭状态。该船满载约200万桶伊朗原油，曾在5月初短暂开启追踪器，此时它似乎位于印度尼西亚龙目海峡附近海域。
Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, said the U.S. government does not consider the Huge as having evaded its forces because it passed before the blockade began. Yet U.S. forces seized at least one tanker carrying Iranian crude that left the Gulf of Oman before the blockade was imposed: the M/T Tifani, which the U.S. military boarded in the Indian Ocean on April 21.
美国中央司令部发言人蒂姆·霍金斯上校表示，美国政府不认为“Huge”号成功规避了封锁，因为它在封锁启动前就已通过。然而，美军已扣押了至少一艘在封锁实施前即离开阿曼湾的伊朗原油运输船——“M/T Tifani”号，美军于4月21日在印度洋登上该船。
The Huge, for its part, continued onward, appearing near Sri Lanka on April 23, according to satellite images. Its path through Southeast Asia, via the Lombok Strait and not the more commonly used route, the Strait of Malacca, is notable. More Iran-linked ships, facing intense scrutiny, are taking this route to reduce their visibility, according to Ami Daniel, the chief executive of Windward.
根据卫星图像，“Huge”号继续前行，于4月23日出现在斯里兰卡附近海域。值得注意的是，它经由东南亚航行时选择了龙目海峡，而不是更常见的马六甲海峡。Windward首席执行官阿米·丹尼尔表示，与伊朗相关的船只为降低被发现的风险，正越来越多地选择这条航线。
Mr. Daniel said he believes that ships that are making it out of the Gulf of Oman are doing so through agreements with the U.S. government, which has issued waivers for certain ships for humanitarian or other reasons.
丹尼尔认为，那些成功穿越阿曼湾的船只很可能是获得了美国政府某种许可，因为美方会因人道主义或其他原因向部分船只发放豁免。
“I think the amount of focus and energy on this blockade is unprecedented, and I don’t believe you can just walk away from the Strait of Hormuz without being noticed with a 300-meter tanker,” Mr. Daniel said.
“我认为针对此次封锁所投入的关注和精力是前所未有的，我不相信一艘300米长的油轮能够在不被察觉的情况下就这么轻易离开霍尔木兹海峡，”丹尼尔说。
Satellite images taken on Wednesday showed that the Huge was heading north, past Vietnam, and likely going to China, according to Ying Cong Loh, an analyst at Kpler, a maritime data firm. It could be heading toward waters near Hong Kong, where ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude have taken place, he said.
海事数据公司Kpler分析师罗颖聪（音）表示，周三拍摄的卫星图像显示，“Huge”号正向北驶去，途经越南附近，很可能驶向中国。他说，该船或许正前往香港附近海域——那里曾发生过伊朗原油的船对船转运。
The Atomis: A midsize vessel that arrives in Chinese waters
“Atomis”号：一艘已经进入中国海域的中型油轮
A midsize ship, the Atomis, an oil tanker subject to U.S. sanctions, left its location tracker on for most of its journey from Iran across the Indian Ocean.
“Atomis”号是一艘受到美国制裁的中型油轮。在从伊朗穿越印度洋的大部分航程中，其定位追踪器一直保持开启状态。
But the ship, flying a false flag of the African nation Comoros, appears to have used spoofing at the beginning and end of its journey, meaning that it manipulated its tracking data to make it seem as if it were somewhere it was not. On April 2, satellite images show it loading at Iran’s Kharg Island while tracking data placed it in Kuwait.
但这艘悬挂非洲国家科摩罗虚假船旗的油轮似乎在航程开始与结束阶段使用了欺骗定位技术，即通过篡改追踪数据，使其显示的位置与实际位置不符。4月2日，卫星图像显示该船正在伊朗哈尔克岛装载石油，但追踪数据显示它当时位于科威特。
Captain Hawkins said that spoofing has not impeded the U.S. Navy’s ability to enforce the blockade. While these ships can be hard to keep tabs on using only tracking data, the U.S. government has multiple ways to monitor ships. Those include radio frequency data and satellite imaging that uses radar signals, rather than light, according to Hans Tino Hansen, chief executive of Risk Intelligence, a maritime risk firm.
霍金斯上校表示，欺骗技术并未阻碍美国海军执行封锁的能力。虽然单靠追踪数据很难持续掌握这些船只的位置，但美国政府还有多种监控手段。海事风险公司Risk Intelligence首席执行官汉斯·蒂诺·汉森表示，其中包括无线电频率数据，以及利用雷达信号而非光学成像的卫星监控技术。
Around April 13, the Atomis, which had changed its name from the Divit a day earlier, passed the U.S. blockade and crossed the ocean, with its location tracker on, to a holding spot near Hong Kong where it will likely transfer its cargo to another ship, according to Bridget Diakun, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List, a shipping publication.
据航运媒体《劳埃德船舶日报》的海事风险分析师布里奇特·迪亚昆称，大约在4月13日前后，该船穿过美国封锁线（前一天，它刚刚把船名从“Divit”号改为“Atomis”号），并一路开启追踪器横渡印度洋，最终抵达香港附近一处锚泊等候点，很可能在那里将货物转运至另一艘船。
The Salute Legend: A smaller vessel that seems to receive a ship-to-ship transfer
“Salute Legend”号：一艘似乎接受了船对船转运的小型船舶
Sources: Kpler; Lloyd’s List.
Smaller vessels, often with their location trackers off, have been most likely receiving Iranian cargo in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. government does not consider such transfers to be violations of the U.S. blockade, which, according to the U.S. Central Command, is focused on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports.
在阿曼湾，往往由小型船舶——通常关闭位置追踪器——接收来自伊朗货物的船对船转运。美国政府并不将此类转运视为违反封锁的行为；根据美国中央司令部的说法，封锁的重点在于进出伊朗港口的船只。
For example, the Salute Legend, a smaller vessel with a Hong Kong flag, used spoofing to obscure its location. Because of that, it’s likely but not certain that the ship received a transfer of cargo in the Gulf of Oman from another ship with cargo from Iran, according to Lloyd’s List. The ship’s transponder was on as it moved east before docking at a port in Quanzhou, China.
例如，“Salute Legend”号是一艘悬挂香港船旗的小型船舶，它利用定位欺骗技术掩盖自身位置。根据《劳埃德船舶日报》的分析，这艘船很可能——虽然无法完全确认——在阿曼湾从另一艘载有伊朗货物的船只接收了货物。随后，这艘船在向东航行过程中保持应答器开启，并最终停靠在中国泉州港。
In addition to the Salute Legend, there have been at least eight smaller ships with links to Iran that have moved from the Gulf of Oman to Asia since the start of the U.S. blockade, according to a Times analysis. It was unclear what or whose cargo those ships were carrying. Half of those may have been involved in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, as well as off the coast of Malaysia, a longstanding location for ship-to-ship transfers.
《纽约时报》的分析还显示，除了“Salute Legend”号外，自美国实施封锁以来，至少还有八艘与伊朗存在关联的小型船舶从阿曼湾驶向亚洲。目前尚不清楚这些船只运载的是属于谁的何种货物。其中约半数可能参与了在阿曼湾以及马来西亚近海的船对船转运——马来西亚海域长期以来一直是此类转运活动的重要地点。
Still, to understand just how effective this blockade has been, analysts point to the dwindling amounts of Iranian crude stored on tankers near the coast of Malaysia, where millions of barrels of crude are illicitly transferred between tankers every day.
不过，分析人士指出，要评估此次封锁的实际效果，可以观察马来西亚近海锚泊油轮上存放的伊朗原油数量的变化——在那里，每天都有数百万桶原油在油轮之间非法转运。
Most of the oil being transferred there is not being replenished. There are 51 million barrels of Iranian oil floating on tankers in the region, down from about 85 million barrels in early February, according to Kpler.
而如今，大部分被转运走的石油并未得到补充。根据Kpler的数据，目前该地区油轮上漂浮储存的伊朗石油约为5100万桶，低于2月初的约8500万桶。