The last time China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, traveled to North Korea, that country’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, was reeling from sanctions and failed nuclear talks with the United States.

上一次中国最高领导人习近平访问朝鲜时，朝鲜的独裁者金正恩正深陷制裁困境，与美国的核谈判也以失败告终。

Now, nearly seven years later, as Mr. Xi returns to North Korea on Monday, he will meet with a leader who is newly emboldened by an alliance with Russia that has helped his economy break out of isolation.

时隔近七年，当习近平于周一再次访问朝鲜时，他将面对的是一位底气大增的领导人——得益于与俄罗斯结盟，朝鲜经济已成功摆脱了孤立状态。

Mr. Xi is expected to use the two-day summit with Mr. Kim to project a united front between allies against the West. But analysts say China is likely also keen to assert its influence over a neighbor that has leaned toward Russia. Mr. Kim, for his part, wants to be treated less like a junior partner to China and will likely use his new closeness to Russia to press Beijing for economic concessions.

预计习近平将借与金正恩为期两天的峰会展示中朝作为盟友共同对抗西方的统一阵线。但分析人士指出，中国同样希望借此重申对这个越来越向俄罗斯靠拢的邻国的影响力。金正恩方面则希望不再被视为中国的小伙伴，并可能利用与俄罗斯日益紧密的关系向北京争取经济让步。

If North Korea is able to successfully balance its two giant neighbors, Mr. Kim might feel even less constrained about advancing his nuclear weapons program. That could destabilize a region where U.S. allies are already worried about China’s military buildup and Washington’s ability to honor its defense agreements as it depletes resources fighting a war with Iran.

若朝鲜能够成功在两大邻国之间维持平衡，金正恩推进核武计划时或许会更加有恃无恐。这将可能扰动本已紧张的地区局势——美国的地区盟友已对中国的军事扩张忧心忡忡，也对华盛顿在深陷伊朗战事、资源消耗日重之际兑现防务承诺的能力深存疑虑。

Here’s what to know about the meeting.

以下是关于此次会晤需要了解的要点。

Xi wants to signal unity, but will also have to court Kim.

习近平意在彰显团结，但也不得不拉拢金正恩。

Mr. Xi will likely use his rare access to Mr. Kim to remind the world that North Korea depends on China and that Beijing cannot be sidelined.

习近平可能会利用这次罕见的会面机会向世界重申：朝鲜仍然依赖中国，北京绝不可能被边缘化。

The messaging would align with efforts by Mr. Xi to project China as a superpower equal to the United States. China is keen to show that while Washington sows chaos — whether through its war with Iran or by imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike — Beijing is a stabilizing force in the world. This point was reinforced in Mr. Xi’s recent summits with President Trump, then President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Beijing.

这契合了习近平将中国塑造为与美国平起平坐的超级大国的努力。北京急于向外界证明：当华盛顿四处播撒混乱——无论是通过对伊朗开战，还是对盟友和对手一律加征关税——北京才是世界的稳定力量。习近平近期在北京与特朗普总统和俄罗斯总统普京先后举行峰会进一步强化了这一点。

“Xi is attempting to demonstrate that he is on better terms with members of his authoritarian clique than President Trump is with his democratic partners,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and the chairman of the Asia Group.

“习近平试图表明，他与威权阵营成员之间的关系比特朗普总统与其民主伙伴之间的关系更为融洽，”曾任拜登政府的副国务卿、现任亚洲集团董事长的库尔特·坎贝尔表示。

But Mr. Xi’s decision to make a rare trip abroad also underscores his need to court Mr. Kim.

但习近平此次罕见出访也反映出，他同样需要拉拢金正恩。

Pyongyang has eased its dependence on Beijing by reviving a Cold War-era mutual defense pledge with Moscow in 2024. Russia has provided North Korea with badly needed oil, food and weapons technology in exchange for North Korean troops and munitions for its war in Ukraine. That has created a headache for China, which wants to maintain its influence over North Korea to rein in its volatile behavior and ensure stability on its borders.

2024年，平壤与莫斯科重启冷战时期的共同防御承诺，这减轻了它对北京的依赖。俄罗斯以朝鲜急需的石油、粮食和武器技术作为回报，换取朝鲜为乌克兰战争输送军队和弹药。这让中国颇为头疼，它希望继续对朝鲜保持影响力，以约束其难以捉摸的行为，确保边境地区的稳定。

今年5月，莫斯科一场阅兵式上的朝鲜军人。2024年，平壤与莫斯科重启冷战时期的共同防御承诺。

“There is no question that the Chinese are worried about how close the North Korean-Russian relationship is getting,” said John Delury, a historian of Northeast Asia who is a senior fellow in Seoul for the Asia Society. “This trip helps head that off a bit and it’s a way for Xi to insert himself back into the equation.”

“毫无疑问，中国方面对朝俄关系日益紧密感到担忧，”亚洲协会首尔高级研究员约翰·德卢里表示，“这次访问有助于在一定程度上缓解这种趋势，也是习近平重新参与进来的一种方式。”

Kim is on a winning streak.

金正恩正处于连胜势头。

Things had looked bleak for Mr. Kim just a few years ago. First, Mr. Trump walked away from nuclear talks with him in 2019, dashing hopes that the United States would lift sanctions. The following year, Mr. Kim drove his country into isolation in response to Covid-19 by closing its borders. That froze trade with China, North Korea’s main source of goods and foreign currency.

就在几年前，金正恩的处境还一度十分艰难。首先是2019年，特朗普退出核谈判，令制裁解除的希望化为泡影。次年，为应对新冠疫情，他关闭国境，使朝鲜进一步陷入孤立。这直接冻结了朝鲜与中国的贸易，中国是朝鲜获取商品和外汇的主要来源。

Mr. Kim’s fortunes changed, not only as the pandemic eased, but after he seized on Russia’s difficulties in the war in Ukraine to strengthen ties with Moscow and recalibrate North Korea’s foreign policy, which had tilted heavily toward China. He supplied Moscow with weapons and troops, while Russia reciprocated by injecting billions of dollars’ worth of oil, food, weapons technology and other aid into North Korea.

但金正恩的命运不仅随着疫情缓解迎来转机，更因他利用了俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的困境而改变。他强化了与莫斯科的关系，重新调整了此前严重偏向中国的外交政策。他向莫斯科提供武器和军队，俄罗斯则回报以数十亿美元的石油、粮食、武器技术及其他援助。

Mr. Xi may seek to remind Mr. Kim that China remains North Korea’s main benefactor. In March, China restored train services and flights between Beijing and Pyongyang.

习近平可能会提醒金正恩，中国仍然是朝鲜的主要援助国。今年3月，中国恢复了北京与平壤之间的列车服务和航班。

平壤街景，摄于3月。俄罗斯向朝鲜输送了价值数十亿美元的石油、粮食、武器及其他援助，为其提供了巨大帮助。

Still, Mr. Kim wants more. Tourism is one of the few sectors not restricted by U.N. sanctions, and the North Korean leader has invested in seafront resorts and mountain hot springs with the aim of attracting Chinese visitors.

尽管如此，金正恩想要的还有更多。旅游业是朝鲜少数未受联合国制裁限制的行业之一，这位领导人已投资建设了海滨度假村和山间温泉，目的是吸引中国游客。

“North Korea is no longer a pathetic nation clinging to a single patron,” said Lee Byong-chul, an analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “It has found a new strategic wing in Russia, in addition to China, which has long been its lifeline.”

“朝鲜不再是那个只能依赖单一庇护者的可怜国家，”首尔远东研究所分析师李炳哲（音）表示。“除了长期以来作为其生命线的中国之外，它还在俄罗斯找到了新的战略羽翼。”

Trump and nuclear weapons loom over the summit.

特朗普与核武器问题给峰会蒙上阴影

One question hanging over the summit is what, if any, pressure Mr. Xi will put on Mr. Kim to engage with the United States. Since returning to the White House, the American president has repeatedly signaled his desire for another summit with Mr. Kim.

萦绕在峰会上空的一个问题是，习近平是否会对金正恩施加压力，如果会的话，会施加什么样的压力，以促使朝鲜与美国接触。自从重返白宫以来，特朗普已多次发出信号，表示希望与金正恩再次举行峰会。

It is possible that Mr. Trump has asked Mr. Xi to deliver a message while he is in Pyongyang. Mr. Kim, however, has remained steadfast, insisting he will reject any dialogue with Washington that places his country’s nuclear program on the negotiating table.

特朗普可能已经要求习近平在平壤期间代为传递信息。然而，金正恩依然立场坚定，坚称只要将朝鲜的核计划摆上谈判桌，他就拒绝与华盛顿进行任何对话。

Mr. Kim has long treated that program as a way to reduce his reliance on Moscow and Beijing for security, and as a shield against a U.S. invasion. That view has been hardened by the Trump administration’s rationale that it attacked Iran partly to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

长期以来，金正恩一直将核计划视为减少对莫斯科和北京安全依赖的手段，以及抵御美国入侵的盾牌。特朗普政府宣称，美国袭击伊朗的部分原因是为了防止伊朗发展核武器，这一理由进一步强化了金正恩的上述立场。

Mr. Kim’s defiance highlights a major shift in how the world’s biggest powers handle North Korea.

金正恩的抗拒姿态凸显了世界大国在处理朝鲜问题上的重大转变。

根据朝鲜官方媒体发布的一张照片，金正恩周三参观了一座生产核弹燃料的新设施。金正恩将核计划视为抵御美国入侵的盾牌。

For years, Beijing and Moscow shared Washington’s goal of rolling back North Korea’s nuclear program, voting with the United States when the U.N. Security Council imposed sweeping sanctions on Pyongyang in 2016 and 2017.

多年来，北京和莫斯科与华盛顿有着遏制朝鲜核计划这一共同目标。在2016年和2017年联合国安理会对平壤实施全面制裁时，两国都与美国一道投了赞成票。

But two years ago, Mr. Putin appeared to provide tacit approval of the nuclear weapons program when he signed the defense pact and offered Russia’s military technical assistance.

但两年前，普京在与朝鲜签署防务协议并向其提供俄罗斯军事技术援助，似乎对这一核武器计划给予了默许。

“Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen its own defense capability,” the Russian leader said.

“平壤有权采取合理措施来加强自身国防能力，”这位俄罗斯领导人说。

North Korea is estimated to already possess 50 warheads, but still seeks advanced technology to build intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering those weapons.

据估计，朝鲜已经拥有50枚核弹头，但仍在寻求先进技术，研制能够运载这些武器的洲际弹道导弹。

China officially opposes a nuclear North Korean state, concerned it would drive U.S. allies like South Korea to seek their own nuclear arsenals. But its stance has recently evolved to reflect a desire for better relations with Pyongyang and a growing view that a nuclear-armed North Korea provides leverage over Washington and Seoul, analysts said.

分析人士表示，中国官方反对朝鲜成为核国家，担心这会促使韩国等美国盟友寻求拥有自己的核武库。但近来中国的立场有所演变，反映出渴望改善与平壤的关系。还有一种日益流行的观点认为，一个拥有核武器的朝鲜能对华盛顿和首尔形成制衡。

When Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim met in Beijing last September, official statements from both governments omitted any mention of removing nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula, which had been standard boilerplate for years.

去年9月习近平和金正恩在北京会晤时，两国政府的官方声明中均未提及朝鲜半岛无核化的问题，而这在过去多年里一直是标准的官方措辞。

Beijing may see little geopolitical value in helping Mr. Trump manage the North Korean nuclear threat, and may also consider it impossible to force North Korea to give up its nuclear program without damaging ties.

北京可能认为，帮助特朗普管控朝鲜核威胁几乎没有什么地缘政治价值，同时可能还认为，在不损害双边关系的情况下迫使朝鲜放弃核计划是不可能的。

Last month, the White House announced that both Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi “confirmed their shared goal to denuclearize North Korea.” But the Chinese government offered a more muted readout, stating only that they had “exchanged views” on the Korean Peninsula.

上个月，白宫宣布特朗普和习近平“确认了实现朝鲜无核化的共同目标”。但中国政府提供的通报更为低调，仅表示双方就朝鲜半岛问题“交换了意见”。