Faced with weak consumer spending, persistently high youth unemployment and a tumbling stock market, China’s ruling Politburo signaled the need for stronger fiscal support and directed authorities to do more to tackle joblessness.

面对消费疲软、青年失业率居高不下以及股市下跌的多重压力，中共中央政治局释放出将加大财政支持力度的信号，并要求有关部门采取更多措施应对就业问题。

In a broadly worded statement issued on Thursday after its annual midyear review of the economy, China’s Communist Party leadership urged the government to pursue “more proactive” tax and spending policies, and increase employment support.

周四，中共领导层在完成每年的年中经济审议后发表措辞宽泛的会议介绍，呼吁政府推行“更加积极”的财政政策和货币政策，并加大就业扶持力度。

Politburo statements rarely detail specific policy measures, instead setting the broad direction for government action. Even by those standards, however, the statement offered few signs of urgency or a major policy shift, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will continue to rely on gradual stimulus rather than sweeping reforms.

政治局会议介绍通常不会详述具体政策举措，而是为政府下一阶段的工作确定总体方向。然而，即便以这一标准衡量，这份会议介绍也几乎未显露出紧迫感或重大政策转向的迹象，这进一步强化了市场预期——北京方面将继续依赖渐进式刺激，而非大刀阔斧的改革。

The Politburo said it would “fully leverage the effectiveness of existing policies, promptly plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies.”

政治局表示，将“在充分发挥各项存量政策效能的基础上，及时谋划出台务实管用的增量政策”。

China’s domestic economy has faltered and is being sustained largely by a record trade surplus and strong exports from the technology and clean energy sectors.

中国国内经济持续低迷，目前主要依靠创纪录的贸易顺差以及科技和清洁能源行业强劲的出口支撑增长。

“The Politburo continues to rely on incremental steps to pull the economy along,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economics professor and former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund. “But revving household consumption will require substantial direct financial assistance as well as confidence-building measures, perhaps coupled with some tax relief.”

“政治局继续依赖渐进步骤来拉动经济，”康奈尔大学经济学教授、国际货币基金组织前中国部主任埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德说。“但要真正激活居民消费，需要切实的直接财政支持和提振信心的举措，也许还需辅以一定程度的税收减免。”

房地产市场的长期低迷侵蚀了居民家庭财富，导致中国消费支出持续疲软。

Even many of China’s electric vehicle and solar panel manufacturers are losing money, while some tech companies are also beginning to encounter difficulties. The CSI 300 index of major Chinese companies has fallen 8.6 percent in July after months of strong gains, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since January 2016. It remains up nearly 10 percent over the past year.

就连许多中国电动汽车和太阳能电池板制造商也处于亏损状态，同时一些科技企业也开始遇到困难。涵盖中国大型企业的沪深300指数在连续数月强劲上涨后，7月份已累计下跌8.6%，可能会创下自2016年1月以来最差的单月表现。不过，该指数在过去一年仍累计上涨近10%。

Unemployment among urban residents ages 16 to 25 has hovered around 15 percent. Youth joblessness has created particular social stress for families because almost everyone in this age bracket is an only child, born when China’s “one child” policy was most strictly enforced.

16至25岁城镇居民的失业率一直徘徊在15%左右。青年失业问题给家庭带来了尤为突出的社会压力，因为这一年龄段的青年几乎都是独生子女——他们出生在中国“独生子女”政策执行最为严格的时期。

Youth unemployment has remained stubbornly high even after Beijing changed its methodology in January 2024 to exclude many young people previously counted as unemployed.

即便北京在2024年1月调整了统计口径，将此前纳入统计的大量年轻人剔除在外后，青年失业率依然居高不下。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has yet to release July data for investment, retail sales and industrial production, but June data were very weak, and private surveys point to further deterioration since then.

中国国家统计局尚未发布7月固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额和工业生产数据，而6月数据已相当疲弱，民间调查显示此后形势进一步恶化。

With the exception of semiconductor and data-center equipment manufacturers, businesses across a wide range of industries are suffering from weak sales this summer, prompting cuts to overtime, hiring and borrowing.

除了半导体和数据中心设备制造商外，今年夏天，各行各业的企业普遍受到销售疲软影响，因此纷纷削减加班、招聘和借贷。

需求疲软拖累制造业活动，中国各地的工厂纷纷削减加班、减少招聘、压缩投资。

“Every key indicator from revenue and profits to sales prices and hiring weakened from a year ago,” said the China Beige Book, a New York-based data service, in a report released on Thursday based on a survey of 1,436 businesses conducted in the last two weeks.

“从营收、利润到销售价格和招聘，所有关键指标均较上年同期走弱，”总部位于纽约的数据服务机构“中国褐皮书”在周四发布的一份报告中表示，该报告基于过去两周对1436家企业的调查。

Consumer spending remains weak, while much of the housing market is still in crisis. A five-year nationwide decline in apartment prices has wiped out much of the middle class’s savings in a country where households typically hold about three-quarters of their assets in real estate.

消费者支出依然低迷，楼市基本上仍深陷危机。持续五年的全国性房价下跌令中产阶级的大量财富蒸发——在中国，家庭资产通常约有四分之三配置在房地产领域。

Economists inside and outside China have urged the government and the state-controlled banking system to devote fewer resources to industrial policies supporting exporters and high-tech industries, and instead provide more financial support to households, particularly lower-income rural families.

国内外经济学家纷纷呼吁，政府和国有银行系统应减少将资源向扶持出口企业和高科技产业的产业政策倾斜，转而加大对居民家庭的财政支持力度，尤其是对农村低收入家庭。

In a speech last month, Liu Shijin, a former vice minister at the Development Research Center, an influential government think tank, said that China’s manufacturing sector is globally competitive, but that many industries face overcapacity while the needs of some people “remain unmet.” The East is Read, a Beijing newsletter, distributed a text of the speech this week.

上个月，有着相当影响力的政府智库中国国务院发展研究中心的原副主任刘世锦在一次演讲中表示，中国制造业具有全球竞争力，但许多行业存在产能过剩，而部分民众的需求“仍未得到满足”。北京的时事通讯The East is Read本周刊发了演讲全文。

Chinese leaders have been reluctant to take more aggressive action as China’s debt, relative to the size of its economy, already exceeds that of the United States and most other countries. The Politburo statement offered no sign of a fundamental shift in policy toward supporting Chinese households.

中国的债务规模相对于经济总量已超过美国及大多数国家，中国领导人对采取更大力度的行动一直保持审慎。政治局会议说明中也没有任何迹象表明政策重点将发生根本性转变，转向支持居民家庭。

尽管统计口径已作调整，中国青年失业率依然居高不下。

There have been tentative signs recently that housing prices are stabilizing in technology hubs such as Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen. But the housing market remains deeply weak across hundreds of other cities, particularly in the country’s interior, far from coastal export centers.

近期有初步迹象表明，上海、杭州和深圳等科技中心的房价正在企稳。但在全国数百座其他城市，房地产市场依然十分低迷，尤其是在远离沿海出口中心的内陆地区。

According to official data, China’s economy grew 4.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace of expansion Beijing has reported in three years. Many Western economists believe actual growth may have been considerably weaker.

官方数据显示，中国经济二季度同比增长4.3%，是北京三年来报告的最慢增速。许多西方经济学家认为，实际增速可能远低于这一数字。

Retail sales fell in May for the first time since China emerged from Covid-19 lockdowns in late 2022, before recovering modestly in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. But the government has stopped publishing many detailed data series that once helped analysts assess the reliability of its official statistics.

国家统计局数据显示，自中国于2022年底解除新冠封控以来，社会消费品零售总额在今年5月首次出现下滑，6月虽略有回升，但幅度有限。不过，政府已经停止发布许多过去帮助分析人士评估官方统计数据可靠性的详细数据。

The China Beige Book said its survey pointed to such broad weakness that official retail figures appeared to paint a stronger picture than conditions on the ground.

中国褐皮书表示，其调查显示经济疲软范围广泛，官方零售数据所描绘的景象似乎比实际情况更为乐观。