Tongliao, long an area of sand and gravel and camels at the eastern fringe of the Gobi Desert, has been transformed into lush grasslands crisscrossed with rows of poplar trees — and the heart of China’s growing cattle industry.

通辽位于戈壁滩东部边缘，长期以来是一个布满沙砾和骆驼的地区，如今已蜕变为杨树成行交错的葱郁草原，并且成为中国不断发展壮大的养牛业的中心。

Over the past several decades, the administrative prefecture in China’s Inner Mongolia region has converted an arid expanse the size of Maryland to cornfields, grass or forest. Large expanses of northern China have become significantly wetter since the 1990s because of climate change, according to the Chinese government’s National Climate Center.

过去几十年里，这个位于中国内蒙古自治区的行政区将相当于马里兰州大小的干旱地带变成了玉米地、草地或森林。根据中国国家气候中心的数据，受气候变化影响，自20世纪90年代以来，中国北方大片地区变得明显更加湿润。

Today, areas of Tongliao look more like famous beef-raising areas in Montana or Argentina’s Pampas. Grass and corn are harvested from the reclaimed desert and fed to cows along with corn and cornstalks on local farms. China’s nationwide herd of beef cattle has expanded by a third since 2018 to nearly 90 million, including nearly four million head in previously arid Tongliao.

如今，通辽的部分地区看起来更像蒙大拿州或阿根廷潘帕斯草原那些著名的肉牛养殖区。人们从改造后的沙漠中收割牧草和玉米，连同当地农场种植的玉米及玉米秸秆一起喂牛。自2018年以来，中国全国的肉牛存栏量增加了三分之一，达到近9000万头，其中近400万头位于以前干旱的通辽。

“The situation has now been reversed: The sand is retreating, greenery is expanding,” said Shen Zhixin, a senior forestry and grassland engineer in western Tongliao.

“现在的局势已经逆转：沙退绿进，”通辽西部的高级林业和草原工程师申志新（音）说。

Rainier summers in northern China have the potential to upend the $500 billion global beef industry, with consequences for beef-exporting countries like Argentina, Australia, Brazil and the United States.

中国北方夏季降雨量的增加可能颠覆价值5000亿美元的全球牛肉产业，并对阿根廷、澳大利亚、巴西和美国等牛肉出口国产生影响。

China is the world’s biggest importer of beef by a wide margin, buying two-thirds of Argentina’s beef exports and large shares of other countries’ shipments. Now, Beijing has seized on the chance to become more self-reliant by expanding the country’s beef industry, already the world’s third largest after Brazil and the United States.

中国是全球最大的牛肉进口国，进口量遥遥领先于其他国家，购买了阿根廷三分之二的出口牛肉，以及其他国家的大量出口份额。如今，北京抓住机会，通过扩大本国牛肉产业来实现更大程度的自给自足。中国牛肉产业规模已经位居世界第三，仅次于巴西和美国。

China is not only increasing the number of cattle but also pushing to breed plumper animals with better quality beef. China now vies with the European Union each year as the world’s biggest importer of bull semen for the artificial insemination of cows, according to World Bank data.

中国不仅在增加牛的存栏量，还在努力繁育体型更健壮、肉质更好的牛。根据世界银行的数据，中国目前每年都与欧盟争夺全球最大公牛精液进口国的地位，这些精液用于对母牛进行人工授精。

Beijing is taking broader actions to protect its domestic market from lower-cost imports that come from countries with much larger, more efficient ranches and feedlots. China set annual quotas on Dec. 31 for beef imports from each of the world’s biggest beef producers, with 55 percent tariffs taking effect as soon as those quotas are reached. Australia reached its full-year quota by late June and was hit with the tariffs three days later, and Brazil is close to its quota.

北京正在采取更广泛的行动，以保护其国内市场免受来自拥有规模更大、效率更高的牧场和饲养场的国家的低成本进口产品的冲击。12月31日，中国针对全球各个最大的牛肉生产国设定了年度牛肉进口配额，一旦达到配额上限，55%的关税将立即生效。澳大利亚在6月下旬达到了全年配额，并在三天后被征收关税，巴西也接近其配额。

At a summit in Beijing in May, President Trump pressed China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, for the country to buy more American beef. China had halted nearly all imports from the United States early last year after Mr. Trump’s increases in American tariffs. Although Beijing lifted one regulatory barrier during the summit, American shipments are still nearly nonexistent.

在5月于北京举行的峰会上，特朗普总统向中国最高领导人习近平施压，要求中国购买更多美国牛肉。在特朗普提高对华关税后，中国于去年初几乎停止了从美国进口所有牛肉。尽管北京在峰会期间取消了一项监管障碍，但美国牛肉的出货量仍然几乎为零。

Nobody expects China, with its enormous population, to become self-sufficient in beef anytime soon. But until recently, its beef imports accelerated as an increasingly affluent population demanded a higher-protein diet that exceeded the domestic supply.

鉴于庞大的人口规模，没有人指望中国能在短期内实现牛肉的自给自足。但直到最近，随着日益富裕的人口对高蛋白饮食的需求远超国内供应，中国的牛肉进口一直在加速增长。

As recently as 2015, China imported less than 500,000 tons of beef, according to the country’s customs data. As imports began rising quickly, China started expanding its own herd, even handing out free cattle to impoverished households in the country’s poorest counties. Imports peaked in 2024 at 2.87 million tons — a huge windfall for ranchers around the globe. It was a pace of annual increases matched by few industries other than China’s own rapid growth in car exports.

根据中国海关数据，就在2015年，中国进口的牛肉还不到50万吨。随着进口量开始快速攀升，中国开始扩大自身的牛群规模，甚至向该国最贫困县的贫困户免费发放牛只。中国进口量在2024年达到287万吨的峰值，这对全球的牧场主来说是一笔巨大的意外之财。除了中国自身汽车出口的快速增长外，鲜有其他行业能与这种年增长速度相媲美。

2024年，中国牛肉进口量从2015年的不到50万吨增至创纪录的287万吨，为全球出口商开辟了一个巨大的市场。作为全球最大的牛肉进口国，中国正在扩大国内生产，这一转变可能会重塑全球牛肉贸易格局。

But by 2024, real estate prices had tumbled and many Chinese households were switching to less expensive chicken or pork after losing their savings in the country’s housing market crash. Combined with rising domestic production, beef wholesale prices plunged 21 percent that year.

但到了2024年，由于房地产价格暴跌，许多中国家庭在房地产市场崩盘中失去了储蓄，纷纷购买更便宜的鸡肉或猪肉。加上国内产量的上升，当年牛肉批发价格暴跌了21%。

The price drop incited considerable anger in rural China, where millions of families put their life savings into raising cattle for slaughter.

价格下跌在中国农村引发了极大的愤怒，数以百万计的家庭将毕生积蓄投入到饲养肉牛中。

China capped overall imports from the rest of the world this year at 2.69 million tons, using the country quotas system and the threat of 55 percent tariffs. It is a politically delicate move by Beijing, which has strongly opposed tariffs by the European Union and the United States on its own surging car exports.

去年，作为贸易战的一部分，中国停止了从美国的大部分进口，今年又利用国家配额制度和55%关税的威慑，将从世界其他地区的总进口量限制在269万吨。北京此举在政治上非常微妙，因为中国强烈反对欧盟和美国对中国激增的汽车出口征收关税。

Beef prices are now recovering, helping farmers like those in Inner Mongolia.

目前牛肉价格正在回升，这对内蒙古等地的养殖户来说是个好消息。

Tongliao typifies the transformation now taking place along the southeastern edge of the Gobi Desert. Several decades ago, only 12 percent of Tongliao had grasslands or forests and the rest was desert, according to the local government. Now 64 percent of the area is covered with crops, grass or forests.

通辽是目前戈壁滩东南边缘正在发生的转型的典型代表。根据当地政府的数据，几十年前，通辽只有12%的面积是草原或森林，其余都是沙漠。如今，该地区64%的面积被农作物、草地或森林所覆盖。

China’s propaganda apparatus attributes the retreat of the Gobi Desert to decades of hard work in planting trees, supplemented more recently by the extensive deployment of solar panels. These actions have stabilized the region’s shifting sands and have helped tame dry desert winds that used to wick away moisture from surface soil, the government has said.

中国的宣传机构将戈壁沙漠的退缩归功于几十年植树造林的艰苦努力，以及最近大规模部署的太阳能电池板的补充措施。政府表示，这些行动稳定了该地区的流沙，并有助于驯服过去会带走表层土壤水分的干燥沙漠风。

But climate change is also making a big difference. Annual rainfall has significantly increased, although there have been yearslong dips and surges along the way, according to China’s meteorologists. Across northern China, previously dry expanses with a total area similar to Arizona have begun receiving enough rain to support grassland or crops, although the soil quality for agriculture in many of these areas is poor.

但气候变化也产生了重大影响。据中国气象学家称，年尽管期间曾出现过持续数年的降雨量波动，但年降雨量已显著增加。在中国北方，总面积与亚利桑那州相当的昔日干旱地区已经开始获得足以维持草原或农作物生长的降雨，尽管其中许多地区的农业土壤质量很差。

在通辽的一处育肥场，安格斯牛与当地牛进行杂交。中国正致力于扩大牛肉产量，通过扩大牛群规模、培育更肥壮的牛只来替代进口。在通辽的一处带顶棚的育肥场里，与当地牛杂交的瑞士西门塔尔牛。

“What we’re seeing is a long-term increase associated with climate warming, with pronounced, decade-long swings superimposed on top of it,” said Xu Xiaofeng, the president of the China Meteorological Service Association. He warned that rain also increasingly occurs during brief, heavy downpours instead of in long, gentle showers better for crops.

“我们所看到的是与气候变暖相关的长期增长，并在其之上叠加了明显的、长达十年的波动，”中国气象服务协会会长许小峰说。他警告说，降雨也越来越以短暂的暴雨形式出现，而不是对农作物更有利的绵长细雨。

To prevent damage from hooves or overgrazing, Chinese officials are using farm equipment to mow the new grasslands once a year and distributing the hay to farmers for cattle in pens.

为了防止牲畜蹄印或过度放牧造成的破坏，中国官员每年使用农业设备对新草场进行一次割草，并将干草分发给农民用于圈养牛群。

The government also installed a large network of motion sensors on Tongliao’s newly green areas to detect cattle, Mr. Shen said. Government workers get alerts, then remove the offending animal and fine the owner.

申志新说，政府还在通辽新绿化的地区安装了庞大的运动传感器网络，以探测牛的活动。政府工作人员收到警报后，会带走违规放牧的动物并对主人处以罚款。

“Grazing is strictly prohibited throughout our sand restoration areas,” Mr. Shen said.

“在我们的整个沙地生态修复区，严格禁止放牧，”申志新说。

The Tongliao region has become one of the world’s largest manufacturing centers for wind turbines, many of which are installed on the new grasslands and send electricity to big cities to the south. Rapid growth in the beef industry, expanding cornfields and extensive factory construction have contributed to a sharp rise in local standards of living, including the plowing of fields with machinery instead of livestock.

通辽地区已成为世界上最大的风力发电机制造中心之一，许多发电机被安装在新草场上，向南方的各大城市输送电力。牛肉产业的快速增长、玉米地的扩张和大量工厂的建设促使当地生活水平大幅提高，包括用机械代替牲畜耕地。

China is also trying to plump up its bony, domestic cows, which for centuries were bred for pulling plows. Local cattle are better at resisting local viruses and withstanding Siberian blizzards that come south.

中国也在努力让瘦削的本土牛长肉，几个世纪以来，这些牛一直是为拉犁而繁育的。本地牛更擅长抵抗当地病毒，以及抵御南下的西伯利亚暴风雪。

So local cattle are now crossbred through artificial insemination with very large and meatier Swiss Simmental and Angus cattle. The resulting offspring weigh up to twice as much as local cattle, said Guo Jie, deputy director of the Tongliao Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Bureau.

因此，本地牛现在通过人工授精与体型庞大、肉质丰满的瑞士西门塔尔牛和安格斯牛进行杂交。通辽市农牧局副局长郭洁（音）表示，杂交后代的体重可达本地牛的两倍。

“The Simmentals with our local cattle’s genes can better adapt to the local environment and grow fast,” she said.

“带有我们本地牛基因的西门塔尔牛能更好地适应当地环境，生长速度也很快，”她说。

(Ms. Guo spoke during a media tour this summer in Inner Mongolia, a border region where foreign media access is sometimes restricted. The New York Times paid its own travel costs.)

（郭洁是在今年夏天内蒙古的一次媒体考察活动中发表上述言论的。内蒙古是一个边疆地区，外国媒体的采访有时会受到限制。《纽约时报》自行承担了此次旅行的费用。）

But many small-scale farmers are wary of the heftier, imported breeds. Nearly seven million Chinese households still raise nine or fewer cattle apiece.

但许多小规模农户对体型更庞大的进口品种持谨慎态度。近700万中国养殖户依然各自只饲养九头或更少的牛。

河北省的一位牧牛人赵女士表示，就牛肉品质而言，她更青睐中国本土品种，而非进口杂交品种。在河北农村，这些牛的脸部呈白色、皮毛呈红褐色，这表明它们可能在几代前就已进行过杂交，因为中国北方的纯种本地牛通常呈近乎黄色的毛色。

A herder in China’s Hebei Province with several dozen local cattle said she had no interest in hybrids. “The beef from our cattle is much better than what you see in supermarkets — these are native Chinese breeds,” said the herder, who gave her family name, Zhao. Many of her grass-fed cattle, grazing in a remote mountain valley, had protruding pelvic bones and visible ribs.

中国河北省一位饲养着几十头当地牛的牧民说，她对杂交牛不感兴趣。“我们的牛肉比超市里的好得多——这些是中国本土品种，”这位姓赵的牧民说。她饲养的许多牛在偏远的山谷中吃草，骨盆突出，肋骨清晰可见。

Inner Mongolia authorities have turned to incentives to encourage consolidation of the region’s herd at large feedlots, where artificial insemination and other programs are more easily managed. The region’s government now provides a subsidy of $44 per head for cattle fattened at feedlots that send at least 500 cattle each year to local slaughterhouses.

内蒙古当局已转而采取激励措施，鼓励将该地区的牛群集中到大型饲养场，在那里更容易管理人工授精等项目。该地区政府目前为在饲养场育肥且每年向当地屠宰场输送至少500头牛的牧户，提供每头约300元的补贴。

Wholesale beef prices are up 17.6 percent from their low in March last year as import restrictions start to bite, helping farmers in Tongliao as part of a longer-term increase in prosperity.

随着进口限制开始产生影响，牛肉批发价格较去年3月的低点上涨了17.6%，这帮助了通辽的养殖户，也是当地长期繁荣发展的一部分。

“In the past, people had to travel on foot or ride camels,” Mr. Shen said. “Today, almost every household owns a car.”

“过去，人们只能步行或骑骆驼出行，”申志新说。“今天，几乎家家户户都拥有汽车。”