The gigantic Chinese lithium battery factory under construction for three years on the edge of Hungary’s second biggest city hasn’t started production yet.

这座巨型中国锂电池工厂位于匈牙利第二大城市郊外，已施工三年，目前尚未投产。

But it has already contributed to a political earthquake.

但它已然引发了一场政治地震。

As the biggest Chinese investment in Europe, the $8.5 billion project in the eastern city of Debrecen had been hailed by Hungary’s outgoing prime minister, Viktor Orban, as proof of the economic benefits of his close relations with China.

这座位于匈牙利东部城市德布勒森、耗资85亿美元的工厂是中国在欧洲最大的投资项目，曾被即将卸任的匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班誉为匈牙利与中国紧密关系带来经济利益的明证。

Instead, the factory helped bring about his downfall.

然而，这座工厂却成了导致欧尔班下台的原因之一。

In the April 12 election, Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party lost all its seats in Parliament from Debrecen, long a bastion of rock-solid support for the party, to the upstart Tisza movement, whose leader, Peter Magyar, is set to be sworn in as prime minister on Saturday in Budapest, the capital.

在4月12日的选举中，欧尔班领导的青民盟在德布勒森市的议会席位尽数落入新兴政党蒂萨党之手，德布勒森此前向来是青民盟的铁票仓。蒂萨党主席彼得·毛焦尔将于周六在首都布达佩斯宣誓就任总理。

Tisza railed against the risks of toxic waste and the lax enforcement record of environmental regulations by Mr. Orban’s government. That message resonated in a city where many voters strongly opposed the factory, worried about their health, water supply and the closure of a railway line that crosses land bought by the Chinese company.

蒂萨党猛烈抨击有毒废料风险，以及欧尔班政府在执行环保法规方面长期松懈的记录。这一主张在德布勒森引发强烈共鸣，当地大量选民坚决反对该工厂，担忧健康受损、耗尽水资源，还不满一条横穿中方购地的铁路线将被关停。

Mr. Magyar has now promised to “review,” but not halt the battery plant, as he tries to balance the demands of his voters for greater scrutiny of potential environmental hazards with his promises to revive Hungary’s sluggish economy.

毛焦尔如今承诺将“审查”这座电池厂，但不会叫停项目。他试图在两大诉求间寻求平衡——既要回应选民加强潜在环境风险监管的呼声，又要兑现自己提振匈牙利低迷经济的承诺。

Mr. Magyar has made clear that his initial priority is to soothe strained relations with the European Union and unblock nearly $20 billion in frozen funding. What to do about the factory, an emblem of Mr. Orban’s close economic and political relations with China, will be an early test of whether he wants to continue an effusive friendship that some see as at odds with the E.U.’s view of China as a “systemic rival.”

毛焦尔已明确表示，其首要任务是修复与欧盟的紧张关系，解冻近200亿美元的冻结资金。如何处置这座象征欧尔班时期匈中紧密政经关系的工厂将成为对他是否打算延续这种热情友谊的早期考验；一些人认为，这种友谊与欧盟将中国视为“系统性对手”的观点相悖。

上个月大选前，匈牙利凯斯特海伊市张贴的一张欧尔班的竞选海报。

The battery factory was built by Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, or CATL, a privately owned Chinese manufacturing giant, and the world’s biggest supplier of batteries for electric cars. It is designed to supply German carmakers, like Mercedes-Benz and B.M.W., whose plants in Hungary are pillars of the economy and depend on Chinese batteries for their electric vehicles.

该电池厂由中国民营制造业巨头、全球最大电动汽车电池供应商宁德时代投资建设，主要为梅赛德斯-奔驰和宝马等德国车企供货，这些车企在匈牙利设厂，是当地经济支柱，其电动车生产依赖中国电池。

Aside from the Chinese factory, “there was no other important campaign issue in Debrecen,” said Zsolt Porcsin, the editor in chief of Debreciner, an online news portal that reported regularly on street protests and lawsuits against the factory by angry residents.

德布勒森本地新闻网站德布勒森人的主编佐尔特·波尔钦表示：“除了这座中国工厂，德布勒森没有其他重要的竞选议题。”该网站长期报道愤怒的当地居民针对工厂的街头抗议与诉讼。

By contrast, the campaign by Mr. Orban, who cozied up to Russia despite Hungary’s membership in the European Union, focused on stoking fears of Ukraine. Tisza candidates attacked Mr. Orban’s party as out of touch with voter concerns and too focused on serving the interests of foreign powers like Russia, China and President Trump’s America.

相比之下，欧尔班的竞选活动侧重于煽动对乌克兰的恐惧——尽管匈牙利是欧盟成员国，他却与俄罗斯关系密切。蒂萨党候选人则抨击欧尔班的政党无视民众关切，一味迎合俄罗斯、中国以及特朗普领导下的美国等外国势力的利益。。

Local hostility to the Chinese battery plant “definitely hurt us in the election,” Laszlo Papp, the mayor of Debrecen and a member of Fidesz, said in an interview. “We did not talk about issues that people were interested in.”

德布勒森市长、青民盟成员拉兹洛·帕普在采访中承认，当地民众对中资电池厂的抵触情绪“确实让我们在选举中受挫”，“我们当时没有谈论民众真正关心的议题”。

德布勒森市市长、青民盟成员拉斯洛·帕普在办公室接受采访。他表示，当地民众对该工厂的反对“无疑在选举中对我们造成了不利影响”。

An opinion poll of 1,000 residents, taken at the start of the project in late January 2023, showed that a majority thought the battery plant would be harmful.

2023年1月底项目启动时，一项针对1000名当地居民的民调显示，多数人认为该电池厂将带来危害。

CATL mostly ignored that public hostility.

宁德时代却基本无视了这种公众敌意。

The company’s approach was shaped by the way things work in China, said Viktor Eszterhai, a China expert at the Ludovika University of Public Service in Budapest, who has studied Hungary’s emergence as a European hub for battery and electric vehicle manufacturing.

布达佩斯路德维卡公共服务大学中国问题专家维克托·埃斯特海伊长期研究匈牙利成为欧洲电池与电动车制造中心的历程，他指出，宁德时代的做法深受中国运作模式影响。

“They thought: ‘We agreed with the government. We don’t need to deal with what local people think,’” he said.

“他们的想法是：‘我们已经和政府达成一致，无需顾及当地民众的意见，’”他说。

CATL, in response to written questions, said it could not comment on “political statements” by the Fidesz mayor or Tisza members of Parliament. It declined to address complaints from residents that the company had ignored their concerns. It said it had tried to “become a good neighbor” by supporting a local pediatric clinic, a flower carnival and other events.

针对书面问询，宁德时代回应称，无法对青民盟籍市长或蒂萨党议员的“政治言论”置评，也拒绝回应居民关于其无视居民关切的投诉。该公司称，已通过资助当地儿科诊所、花卉嘉年华等活动，努力“成为好邻居”。

CATL still needs final permits before it can start production. Since the election, it has rushed to build bridges with Hungary’s post-Orban political order.

宁德时代仍需获得最终许可才能投产。自选举以来，该公司正加紧与匈牙利后欧尔班时代的政治格局建立联系。

匈牙利德布勒森的一座教堂。这座城市曾是欧尔班所在政党的铁票仓。

Zsolt Tarkanyi, one of Tisza’s victorious Debrecen candidates and a loud critic of the factory during the campaign, said the company had contacted him and other Tisza legislators soon after Mr. Orban’s defeat.

蒂萨党在德布勒森胜选的候选人之一、竞选期间强烈反对建厂的佐尔特·陶尔卡尼透露，欧尔班败选后不久，宁德时代便联系了他及其他蒂萨党议员。

Last week, senior CATL executives from China flew to Budapest for a hastily arranged meeting with Hungary’s incoming Minister of Economy and Energy, Istvan Kapitany, who has pledged to review state subsidies given to foreign companies.

上周，宁德时代中国总部高管飞抵布达佩斯，紧急会见即将上任的匈牙利经济与能源部长伊斯特凡·卡皮塔尼，卡皮塔尼此前曾承诺将重新审查给予外国企业的国家补贴。

In the case of CATL, Mr. Orban’s government had promised subsidies that the company says are worth around $350 million. Hungarian media reports have put total state aid, including tax breaks and other favors, at over $900 million. The terms of the original deal in 2022 between CATL and the Hungarian government are secret.

欧尔班政府曾向宁德时代承诺提供补贴，据该公司称，补贴金额约为3.5亿美元，匈牙利媒体则报道称，含税收减免和其他优惠在内，总补贴额超9亿美元。宁德时代与匈牙利政府2022年达成的原始协议条款属于保密内容。

Mr. Tarkanyi said in an interview that under Mr. Orban, battery factories already up and running in Hungary, including those of South Korean and Japanese companies, “basically did whatever they wanted.”

陶尔卡尼在采访中表示，欧尔班执政时期，匈牙利境内已投产的电池工厂——包括韩国和日本企业的工厂——“基本上为所欲为”。

This, he added, “would come to an end.”

他还说，这种情况“将彻底终结”。

He said battery factories would now be subjected to rigorous inspections, heavy fines or suspended operations, in the case of repeated violations. A South Korean plant already operating for years has been repeatedly fined modest amounts.

陶尔卡尼称，今后所有电池厂都将面临严格审查，若屡次违规，将面临重罚或停产。目前，该国一家运营多年的韩资工厂已多次被处以小额罚款。

Hungary under Mr. Orban became China’s most reliable friend in the European Union, embracing an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership,” a term adopted during a 2024 visit to Budapest by the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.

欧尔班执政时期，匈牙利成为中国在欧盟最可靠的盟友，双方建立了“全天候全面战略伙伴关系”， 这一表述源自中国国家主席习近平2024年访问布达佩斯期间。

That partnership was a sharp divergence from the E.U.’s increasingly jaundiced view of China because of a torrent of Chinese exports to Europe that threaten European manufacturers and its support for Russia in the war in Ukraine.

这一伙伴关系与欧盟对中国的日益负面的看法形成鲜明对比：欧盟不满中国对欧出口激增冲击本土制造业，也不满中国在俄乌冲突中对俄罗斯的支持。

Wary of E.U. hostility, Beijing in turn has looked to strongman European leaders like Mr. Orban in Hungary and President Aleksandar Vucic in neighboring Serbia.

出于对欧盟敌意的警惕，北京转而寻求与匈牙利的欧尔班，邻国塞尔维亚的武契奇等欧洲强势领导人建立关系。

Their countries seemed to offer a space free of criticism and, in the case of Hungary, a back door to the European market in the event of high E.U. tariffs on electric vehicles, batteries and other goods made in China. Hungary is the largest single destination for Chinese investments in Europe, with several battery factories and a large BYD electric vehicle plant.

这些国家为中国提供了免受批评的合作空间；若欧盟对中国电动车、电池等产品加征高额关税，匈牙利可成为中国产品进入欧洲市场的后门。匈牙利是中国在欧洲投资最多的国家，境内已有多家电池厂及一家比亚迪大型电动车工厂。

But voters in Debrecen showed the limits of Beijing’s approach.

但德布勒森选民的态度揭示了北京这一策略的局限性。

“Sooner or later they will realize this is not a good strategy,” said Agnes Szunomar, a China expert at Corvinus University in Budapest. “It works in authoritarian regimes where one man stays in power for decades, but in democracies it shouldn’t work.”

布达佩斯考文纽斯大学中国问题专家阿格妮丝·舒诺马尔表示：“他们迟早会意识到，这并不是一个好策略。这套模式在领导人可掌权数十年的专制政权可能奏效，但在民主国家，它是行不通的。”

For Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party, it didn’t.

对欧尔班领导的青民盟而言，事实也确实如此。

尤迪特·塞曼在工厂附近的家中，她说工厂让这里变得“不再宜居”。

Judit Szeman, whose family farm sits just a few hundred yards from the hulking factory, said she had voted for Fidesz in the past but lost all trust in Mr. Orban because of his support for the Chinese project.

尤迪特·谢曼的家庭农场距这座庞大工厂仅数百米。她表示，自己过去一直支持青民盟，但因为欧尔班力挺这一中国项目，她已对他彻底失去信任。

Mr. Orban’s crushing defeat has given her some hope that the new government might start enforcing environmental regulations, but she’s not dropping a years’ old legal case that she and other residents filed to challenge the factory’s environmental permit.

欧尔班的惨败让她看到一丝希望，新政府或许会严格执行环保法规。但她仍未撤回与其他居民数年前提起的质疑工厂环保许可的诉讼。

Her 83-year-old mother refuses to leave, she said, “so we have to keep going,” even though, she added, “this place is becoming unlivable.”

她说，她83岁的母亲不愿离开家园，“所以我们必须坚持下去”，尽管“这里正变得越来越不宜居”。

Floodlit at night, the factory is so bright that it makes sleeping difficult, she said, and, though not yet producing, emits strange grinding noises “like 10 tractors.”

她抱怨，工厂夜间灯火通明，让人难以入眠；虽然尚未投产，却持续发出奇怪的轰鸣噪音，“像有10台拖拉机一样”。

Eva Kozma, a Debrecen resident who has been organizing protests against the battery plant for years, said she was disappointed that Tisza has not come out in favor of shutting the factory down but still thinks that might happen.

几年来组织反工厂抗议活动的德布勒森居民埃娃·科兹马表示，她对蒂萨党未明确表态关停工厂感到失望，但仍认为关停存在可能性。

“People say the factory has been built so we can’t do anything,” she said. “But I tell them: ‘Would you have ever thought that Viktor Orban who had all the money and power would ever lose an election?’”

“人们说‘工厂都建好了，我们无能为力’，”她说。“但我想反问：‘当初谁能想到，拥有大量金钱和权力的欧尔班会输掉选举呢？’”