There is chaos in the Middle East and global markets have been oscillating wildly. But rather than panic about what the Iran war may be doing to your investments, try to forget about all of it.

中东局势陷入混乱，全球市场也在剧烈波动。但是，与其因伊朗战争可能对你的投资产生的影响而惶惶不安，不如试着把这一切抛诸脑后。

That, in a nutshell, is the standard long-term investing playbook for times of crisis.

简而言之，这正是危机时期长期投资的标准策略。

It’s not the most exciting approach. You may be able to profit if you behave opportunistically. Buy and sell energy and military stocks — or gold, or U.S. Treasuries, or anything else that may be the flavor of the moment — and do so at just the right time. But speculating in the markets and consistently coming out ahead is hard to do.

这并不是最刺激的做法。如果你采取机会主义的操作，也许能够获利。低买高卖能源股、军工股，或者黄金、美国国债，以及任何当下炙手可热的资产，时机要拿捏得恰到好处。但在市场上投机并且始终保持盈利是一件很难做到的事情。

Academic wisdom suggests simply aiming for an average market return over the long haul is a sensible approach — and, probably, the best strategy for most people. So if you already have set up your portfolio appropriately, using cheap, diversified index funds to hold the entire stock and bond markets in a reasonable proportion, there is no reason to make abrupt changes — and plenty of reasons to avoid acting hastily.

学术界的普遍观点认为，做长线投资、追求市场平均回报率是一种明智的做法——而且对多数人来说，这可能也是最好的策略。因此，如果你已经对自己的投资进行了合理配置，通过费用低廉、多样化的指数基金，以合理的比例持有了整个股票和债券市场，那么就没有理由做出突然的调整——反而有很多理由避免仓促行动。

History shows that doing nothing has generally been a fine strategy when the markets act up, whether the immediate cause of the trouble has been military conflicts, natural disasters, nuclear power plant accidents, political shocks, or nearly any other abrupt, unexpected event.

历史表明，当市场出现动荡时，什么都不做往往是一种不错的策略，无论眼前的动荡是由军事冲突、自然灾害、核电站事故、政治冲击，还是几乎任何其他突发事件所引发。

Long-term stock market returns have been fabulous, and high-quality bonds have usually — but not always — buffered portfolios in times of trouble. Avoiding adjustments in midcourse is frequently the best policy.

股市的长期回报一直非常可观，高质量的债券在市场困难时期也经常（尽管并不总是）起到缓冲作用。避免中途调整往往是最佳策略。

And Yet

然而

The logic here is sound, but I readily admit that it’s not foolproof. Economic recessions are bad for nearly everyone, and certainly for the markets, and if the crisis in the Persian Gulf sets off a recession, it could conceivably take a long time for a full recovery.

上述逻辑是合理的，但我也得承认，它并非万无一失。经济衰退对几乎所有人都不是好事，对市场更是如此，如果波斯湾的危机引发衰退，可以想见，经济要完全复苏可能需要很长时间。

Even more potentially troubling, the buy-and-hold, do-nothing approach is based on the assumption that the future will resemble the past, and that what is happening in the gulf will not result in an irrecoverable disaster for the entire region and the world.

更深的隐患在于，“买入并持有、以不变应万变”的策略，是基于这样一种假设：未来将与过去相似，海湾正在发生的事情不会给整个地区和世界带来不可挽回的灾难。

As I’ve pointed out repeatedly, the Trump administration is ignoring previous norms and is trying to change the world. In this case, the bombing of Iran and the killing of many of its top leaders have been followed by declarations from U.S. and Israeli leaders that they will continue the assault until they demolish the country’s capacity to fight back. Iranian reprisals in the gulf have already begun. They may not end there. President Trump’s decisions could have unintended consequences for the United States.

正如我反复指出的，特朗普政府正在无视以往的规范，并且正试图改变世界。此番，对伊朗的轰炸及其多名最高层领导人身亡后，美国和以色列领导人相继宣称，他们将持续发动攻击，直到彻底摧毁伊朗的还击能力为止。伊朗在海湾地区的报复行动已经开始，而且未必会止步于此。特朗普的决策可能给美国带来意想不到的后果。

At the same time, the U.S. stock market may be particularly vulnerable to setbacks because it has become highly concentrated and highly priced, largely because of investor enthusiasm about artificial intelligence.

与此同时，由于在相当程度上源于投资者对人工智能的热情，美国股市变得高度集中，价位也很高，因此可能特别容易受到回调冲击。

It’s possible that some prior assumptions about investing may not necessarily hold in this case. While I think it makes sense to follow the same basic playbook, the risks we are facing may be greater than many people understand or that market prices reflect. Try to make sure that you have put aside enough safe money to take account of these potential dangers.

在这种情况下，以往关于投资的一些假设未必还能完全成立。尽管我认为遵循同一套基本的应对策略仍然有其道理，但我们所面对的风险可能比很多人理解的或市场价格所反映出来的要更大。尽量确保你已经预留了足够的安全资金，以应对这些潜在的危险。

The Case for Doing Nothing

以不变应万变

If you have been following markets and world politics for a while, you will know that the U.S. stock market has trended upward, despite periodic setbacks, for the last century. That trend has sometimes been interrupted by military conflicts, but it has never been entirely broken. Riding the stock market upward — and diversifying in other markets, as well — has proved to be successful. Running scared has been a mistake.

如果你长期关注市场和世界政治，就会知道，尽管期间经历过多次波折，美国股市在过去一个世纪里总体上一直呈上升趋势。这一趋势有时会因军事冲突而中断，但从未被彻底打破。顺着股市的长期上升趋势进行投资——同时在其他市场进行适度分散——事实证明是成功的做法；因恐慌而仓促撤离，反而往往是错误。

Jeffrey Yale Rubin, the president of Birinyi Associates, an independent stock market research and investing firm in Westport, Conn., pointed out that truth in a succinct report for clients, which he expanded at my request.

康涅狄格州韦斯特波特的独立股市研究和投资公司Birinyi Associates总裁杰弗里·耶鲁·鲁宾在一份给客户的简明报告中阐述了这一事实，并在我的请求下作了进一步说明。

Mr. Rubin examined the stock and oil market response to all of the “past U.S. attacks lasting more than one day,” starting with “Operation Desert Storm,” the U.S.-led war to drive the Iraqi forces of Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait. That war began in mid-January 1991. It was short and, by most contemporary accounts, resoundingly successful (though the U.S. decision to leave Mr. Hussein in power was later sharply critiqued).

鲁宾研究了所有“持续时间超过一天的美国军事打击”开始后的股市和油市反应，从“沙漠风暴行动”开始——那场由美国领导、将萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克军队逐出科威特的战争。它始于1991年1月中旬。战争持续时间不长，而且根据当时多数人的说法，取得了巨大成功（尽管美国让萨达姆继续掌权的决定后来受到尖锐批评）。

There were seven more U.S. military campaigns of more than one day’s duration from then until the current Iran war. And they ranged geographically and in intensity and duration, including conflicts in Bosnia, Iraq, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.

从那以后直到当前的伊朗战争，美国又发动了七场持续超过一天的军事行动。这些行动在地理范围、强度和持续时间上各不相同，涉及波斯尼亚、伊拉克、科索沃、阿富汗、利比亚和叙利亚等地的冲突。

What Mr. Rubin found was striking. One year after the start of these conflicts, the S&P 500, on average, rose 12.5 percent. That compares with an average annualized price return (without dividends) of the S&P 500 of only 9 percent. In an email, Mr. Rubin said, “The bottom line is geopolitical events, similar to the current period, have historically delivered above average” returns one year later.

鲁宾的发现颇为引人注目：在这些冲突开始一年后，标普500指数平均上涨了12.5%。相比之下，标普500指数的平均年化价格回报（不含股息）只有9%。鲁宾在电子邮件中写道：“归根结底，从历史上看，与当前时期类似的地缘政治事件发生一年后，市场回报率高于平均水平。”

In other words, while the stock market has often, though not always, fallen in the weeks after the start of a U.S. conflict or of other geopolitical shocks, shares have usually recovered and rebounded fairly quickly. Keeping your costs low and sticking with the stock market has paid off over the long haul.

换句话说，尽管在美国卷入冲突或出现其他地缘政治冲击后的最初几周里，股市常常——但并非总是——出现下跌，但股价通常会很快复苏和反弹。从长期来看，保持低成本投资并坚持持有股市资产，一直是能够带来回报的策略。

Watch Out for Wild Cards

警惕意外变数

The oil market is another matter. Oil prices have jumped in the current conflict, as they have in many past conflicts. What’s more, one year after the start of military action, Mr. Rubin found, the price of Brent crude, the benchmark for oil outside the United States, has risen, too. The average price gain has been substantial, 27 percent. That’s frequently set off higher inflation. And soaring oil prices led to recessions, especially in earlier periods, like the 1970s and early 1980s

石油市场则是另一回事。与以往的多次冲突一样，本轮冲突中油价已大幅上涨。此外，鲁宾发现，军事行动启动一年后，作为美国以外地区石油基准的布伦特原油价格同样上涨，平均涨幅高达27%。这往往会引发通胀走高。而油价飙升曾多次导致经济衰退，尤其是在20世纪70年代和80年代初等较早时期。

Perhaps anticipating the current troubles in the Middle East, the energy sector of the S&P 500 rose sharply in the weeks leading up to the war. It was up more than 26 percent from the start of the year through March 2, compared with a small loss for the overall S&P 500. Exxon Mobil, the oil giant, was up more than 25 percent through Tuesday. The United States Oil Fund E.T.F., which holds futures contracts in oil, had risen about the same amount. For those holding oil stocks, the war has been a boon.

或许是提前预见到中东当前的乱局，标普500指数中的能源板块在战争爆发前几周大幅上涨。从年初至3月2日，该板块涨幅已超过26%，而同期标普500整体小幅下跌。石油巨头埃克森美孚截至周二涨幅超过25%，持有石油期货合约的美国石油基金ETF涨幅也大致相当。对持有石油股的人来说，这场战争是利好。

If the conflict ends soon without much damage to energy infrastructure or the natural environment, and shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, then the shock of higher energy prices may abate, too. A protracted closure of the strait — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas transit — could have dire consequences.

如果冲突很快结束，能源设施与自然环境未遭受严重破坏，霍尔木兹海峡航运得以恢复，那么能源价格上涨带来的冲击可能会随之缓解。但这条承担全球约五分之一石油与天然气运输的海峡若长期关闭，可能造成严重后果。

Even though the global economy, and the U.S. economy, in particular, are not nearly as dependent on oil as they were 50 years ago, a big and extended oil shock could be painful. Because the United States is now a net exporter of oil and natural gas, the U.S. energy sector could have windfall profits. But rising prices would hurt U.S. consumers and the rest of the economy. It’s not clear how the U.S. stock market would react under those circumstances. European markets are more vulnerable to energy shocks, and have underperformed U.S. markets in the early days of the crisis.

尽管全球经济——尤其是美国经济——对石油的依赖程度已远不及50年前，但一轮大幅且持续的石油冲击仍可能带来痛苦。由于美国如今已成为石油和天然气净出口国，其能源行业可能获得暴利。但物价上涨会损害美国消费者和其他经济领域。在这种情况下，美国股市将作何反应尚不明朗。欧洲市场对能源冲击更为敏感，在危机初期表现已弱于美国市场。

The bond market and the dollar are in play right now. Treasury yields, and the yields of sovereign bonds of many other countries, have fluctuated during the crisis. The prospect of potential energy price increases and of an upward surge in inflation raises questions about the potential for interest rate increases by major central banks this year, especially for the Federal Reserve. The dollar has risen in value, partly because of the expectation that the Iran war will keep U.S. rates higher than might otherwise be the case.

债券市场与美元正受到直接影响。危机期间，美国国债及其他许多国家主权债券的收益率出现波动。能源价格可能上涨以及通胀可能飙升的前景，引发了外界对主要央行今年是否会加息的质疑，尤其是美联储。美元汇率走高，部分原因是市场预期伊朗战争将使美国利率维持在高于原本水平的位置。

With “affordability” a major concern in the United States, higher short- and-long-term interest rates could have far-reaching political effects. President Trump has been sensitive to rising bond yields in the past, and could alter his military plans if the markets and the economy were to come unglued.

由于“可负担能力”是美国的一大核心议题，短期和长期利率的攀升可能产生深远的政治影响。特朗普总统过去对债券收益率上升一直很敏感，如果市场和经济出现动荡，他可能会调整军事计划。

Even if these wild cards were to play out in unfortunate ways, long-term investors with deep pockets might still flourish by ignoring the war and its aftermath. As long as the economy stays strong — or rebounds, if the war leads to economic weakening — corporations are likely to find ways of generating profits, which, ultimately, flow back to investors.

即便这些意外变量朝着不利方向发展，资金雄厚的长期投资者仍有可能无视战争及其后果而获得收益。只要经济保持强劲——或在战争导致经济疲软后出现反弹——企业就有可能找到盈利途径，而利润终将回流至投资者手中。

Ideally, you have already put aside enough money in safe places — like federally insured bank accounts, Treasury bills and high-quality money-market funds — to ride out a storm. Within weeks or months, the markets usually rebound, and people who stay the course end up prospering.

理想情况下，你早已在安全资产中储备了足够资金——例如联邦保险银行账户、美国国库券和优质货币市场基金——从而安然度过风暴。市场通常会在数周或数月内反弹，坚持到底的人最终会获得丰厚回报。

But the world is moving into strange new places and it would be wise to prepare for further departure from past norms. Hold more bonds and cash then usual, if you are worried. Hope for peace and prosperity but prepare for the horrors of war.

但世界正在步入诡谲的新境地，为进一步偏离过往常态做好准备是明智之举。若你心存忧虑，可比平时增持债券和现金。祈盼和平与繁荣，但也要为战争的残酷做好准备。