President Trump is trying to cast his Iran war as all but over, a done-and-dusted success.

特朗普总统正试图将他发动的伊朗战争描绘成已近尾声、大局已定的局面。

But after years of trying to impose his own reality on the world, he has now run into a crisis that is not bending to his narrative.

但在多年来强行向世界灌输自己设定的现实之后，他如今遭遇了一场无法被其叙事扭曲的危机。

“It’s a new regime,” Mr. Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday, referring to Iran’s new leaders. “We find them pretty reasonable to be honest with you, by comparison pretty reasonable.”

“这是一个新政权，”特朗普周三在福克斯商业频道的采访中谈及伊朗新领导人时表示，“说实话，我们认为他们相当理性，相对而言非常理性。”

It was the latest instance of Mr. Trump’s trying to spin a “regime change” accomplishment in Iran, even though analysts believe the war may have only increased the internal sway of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the hard-line military force that has long been a major player in Iran’s politics and economy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since he replaced his father, who was killed at the start of the war, but his elevation as head of state has been another symbol of continuity.

这是特朗普最新一次试图把伊朗的“政权更迭”包装成一项政绩。尽管分析人士认为，这场战争反而强化了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的内部影响力——这支强硬派军事力量长期以来都是伊朗政治与经济的核心角色。新任最高领袖阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自接替战争初期被杀的父亲以来从未公开露面，但他就任国家元首本身就象征着政权延续性并未改变。

“Most generously you could say there is a leadership change,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank with a hawkish stance on Iran. “It is incorrect for the proponents of the conflict to frame this as a change for the better.”

“最宽容地说，这只能算是领导层更替，”华盛顿对伊强硬派智库保卫民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任贝赫纳姆·本·塔莱布鲁表示。“支持这场战争的人将其描述为向好转变，这是错误的。”

Indeed, trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal and Iran’s government is not bending to Mr. Trump’s demands on its nuclear program.

事实上，霍尔木兹海峡的贸易远未恢复正常，伊朗政府也并未屈从于特朗普对其核计划的要求。

But in Mr. Trump’s telling, U.S. victory in Iran is already clear. In the Fox Business interview, reprising his frequent comments of the last two weeks, Mr. Trump asserted that Iran’s navy, air force and antiaircraft equipment had all been wiped out, along with many top officials. If Iran did not rule out nuclear weapons, Mr. Trump said, “we will be living with them for a little while, but I don’t know how much longer they can survive.”

但按照特朗普的说法，美国在伊朗的胜利已经板上钉钉。在福克斯商业频道的采访中，他重复了近两周反复强调的论调，声称伊朗海军、空军与防空装备已被全部摧毁，多名高层官员也已毙命。特朗普表示，如果伊朗不放弃谋求核武器，“我们还会再对付他们一段时间，但我不知道他们还能撑多久。”

In fact, analysts say, the 40 days of U.S.-Israeli bombardment that ended with last week’s cease-fire appear to have increased the power of the military and hard-liners in the Iranian system. Despite the widespread destruction and the killings of officials by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, the Iranian regime is acting emboldened, having demonstrated that it can wreak havoc in global trade and send U.S. gas prices soaring.

事实上，分析人士指出，以停火告终的40天美以联合轰炸反而提升了伊朗体制内军方与强硬派的权力。尽管美以军队造成了大面积破坏并击毙多名官员，伊朗政权反而表现得更加大胆，它已证明自己能够重创全球贸易、推高美国汽油价格。

一名女子正穿过德黑兰的恩格拉布广场，头顶是伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的巨幅广告牌。

The result is that a president who has long relied on threats and bluster as essential foreign-policy tools seems to be groping for the leverage to bring Iran’s regime to heel. Analysts say that the success of the administration’s latest effort, its blockade of Iranian ports, depends on the ability of the United States and its allies to withstand the additional pressure that Iran could impose on Persian Gulf trade in response.

结果就是，这位长期将威胁与虚张声势作为核心外交工具的总统如今正摸索能迫使伊朗政权屈服的筹码。分析人士称，美国政府最新手段——对伊朗港口实施封锁——能否成功，取决于美国及其盟友能否承受伊朗为反击而对波斯湾贸易施加的额外压力。

Mona Yacoubian, a former State Department official and Middle East expert, drew a contrast in Mr. Trump’s struggle with Iran to his success in exacting concessions from U.S. allies by threatening them with tariffs.

前国务院官员、中东专家莫娜·雅各布扬将特朗普在伊朗问题上的困境与他通过关税威胁成功迫使盟友让步做了对比。

“This is not something he has control over with the stroke of a pen,” said Ms. Yacoubian, who directs the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “This is where the president’s approach of his own charismatic and powerful personality, in my view, is not a match for the complexity, the opacity, that is the case with Iran.”

“这不是他一纸命令就能掌控的事情，”现任华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任的雅各布扬表示。“在我看来，总统这种依靠个人魅力与强势风格的做法根本无法应对伊朗问题上的复杂性和不透明性。”

The administration has been eager to portray a groundbreaking deal with Iran as being possible. Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday that Mr. Trump sought a “grand bargain” in which the United States would treat Iran “economically like a normal country” if it acted “like a normal country.”

政府急于展现出与伊朗达成突破性协议的可能性。副总统万斯周二表示，特朗普寻求一份“大交易”：如果伊朗表现得“像一个正常国家”，美国将在经济上把它“当作正常国家对待”。

上周末，经过21小时的会谈后，副总统万斯在未与伊朗官员达成协议的情况下离开了巴基斯坦。

“He doesn’t want a small deal,” Mr. Vance said.

“他不想要小打小闹的协议。”万斯说。

Mr. Vance ended an extensive session of talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan last week without an agreement. He said Tuesday that the United States would keep negotiating, and that “the people we were sitting across from wanted to make a deal.”

万斯上周在巴基斯坦与伊朗官员进行长时间谈判后未达成任何协议。他周二表示，美国将继续谈判，并称“坐在我们对面的那些人希望达成协议”。

But Iran appears to have taken note of the leverage it has against Mr. Trump, given the pain of rising gas prices and Republican worries that the unpopularity of the Iran war could hurt the party in the midterm elections in November. That means that even though Iran appears ready to negotiate, its leaders could make demands of their own on matters like the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz, while still driving a hard bargain on nuclear policy, the issue that matters most to Mr. Trump.

但鉴于汽油价格上涨带来的痛苦，以及共和党人担心对伊朗战争的不受欢迎可能会损害该党在11月中期选举中的选情，伊朗似乎已经意识到了自己对特朗普握有筹码。这意味着，即便伊朗看似愿意谈判，其领导人也可能在霍尔木兹海峡未来管控等问题上提出自己的条件，同时在特朗普最看重的核问题上继续强硬讨价还价。

Nate Swanson, a former U.S. official who was on the Trump negotiating team with Iran until July, said the regime in Tehran was not going to capitulate to Mr. Trump’s demands in negotiations, “just as they did not on the battlefield.” Mr. Trump was unlikely to succeed, he said, in “trying to force transformational change on a system that feels like it just won a war.”

曾担任特朗普政府对伊谈判团队成员直至去年7月的前美国官员内特·斯旺森表示，德黑兰政权不会在谈判中屈从于特朗普的要求，“正如他们在战场上没有屈服一样”。他说，特朗普“试图强迫一个自认为刚刚赢得战争的体制发生根本性变革”，这不太可能成功。

“Iran will only make a deal they see as being in their interest,” Mr. Swanson, now at the Atlantic Council, said. “That will most likely be small and transactional.”

“伊朗只会达成他们认为符合自身利益的协议，”现任职于大西洋理事会的斯旺森说。“最终很可能只是小规模、交易性的协议。”

Mr. Swanson also cautioned against reading too much into the perceived pragmatism of individual Iranian negotiators like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker whom Mr. Trump has cast as part of a more moderate, new crop of Iranian leaders. Without a consolidated power base, all Iranian officials will need to emphasize their hard-line bona fides, he said.

斯旺森还提醒，不要过度解读伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫等个别谈判代表表面上的务实态度——特朗普曾将加利巴夫视为伊朗新一代温和派人物。斯旺森表示，由于缺乏稳固的权力基础，所有伊朗官员都必须强调自己坚守强硬立场的诚意。

“It’s not in Ghalibaf’s or anyone else’s interest to stray from the party line right now,” Mr. Swanson said.

“现在，对于加利巴夫或其他任何人来说，偏离官方路线都不符合自身利益，”斯旺森说。