From its strikes on Iran to its global tariffs, the United States has wielded military force and economic threats to impose its will. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is preparing for this era of perilous rivalry by pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies, while also expanding the country’s armed forces.

从对伊朗的袭击到全球关税政策，美国正动用军事力量和经济威胁来强加其意志。中国最高领导人习近平正通过向人工智能、量子计算及其他战略技术领域倾注资源，同时扩张武装力量，为这个充满险恶竞争的时代做准备。

Mr. Xi’s ambitious goals for the next five years of China’s technological ascent were expected to be endorsed at a weeklong meeting of the national legislature in Beijing that started on Thursday. The approach reflects Mr. Xi’s view that competition with the United States will ultimately be decided by technological innovation that drives economic, military and cultural strength.

周四在北京开幕的为期一周的全国立法会议预计将批准习近平关于未来五年中国技术崛起的宏大目标。这一方略反映了习近平的观点：推动经济、军事和文化实力的技术创新将决定与美国的这场竞争的胜负。

The plan, according to an outline of it announced in October, will call for fostering new engines of economic growth in emerging industries like quantum computing, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and 6G.

根据去年10月公布的计划大纲，该计划将要求在量子计算、生物制造、氢能与核聚变能源、脑机接口、具身智能以及6G等新兴产业中培育新的经济增长引擎。

As China’s relationship with the United States has deteriorated, threatening Beijing’s access to U.S. technology, leaders in Beijing see this race as ever more urgent. In a speech in October about the outlines of the five-year plan, Mr. Xi called on the country to “seize this window of opportunity to consolidate and expand our advantages, break through bottlenecks and constraints, and address weaknesses and shortcomings.”

随着中美关系恶化并威胁到北京获取美国技术的渠道，北京高层认为这场竞赛愈发紧迫。在10月关于五年规划大纲的讲话中，习近平号召全国“抓住这个时间窗口，巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项”。

华盛顿的出口管制促使北京愈发积极推动半导体完全国产化。

Even as Mr. Xi is preparing to host President Trump in early April to try to extend a trade truce, he is doubling down on a strategy of ensuring that China’s economy and military are not vulnerable to being cut off by the West from advanced semiconductors and other critical technologies.

尽管准备在4月初接待特朗普总统来访，试图延长贸易休战协议，习近平同时也在加倍强化其战略，以确保在面临西方切断先进半导体和其他关键技术供应时中国经济和军事不会陷入不利。

“Chinese leaders have a view that Washington will continue trying to constrain China’s technological development,” said Gerard DiPippo, an associate director of the China Research Center at RAND, a research organization. “That belief underpins the urgency behind self-reliance efforts. Even if there is temporary stabilization, the underlying dynamic remains structurally competitive.”

“中国领导人认为华盛顿将继续试图遏制中国的技术发展，”研究机构兰德公司中国研究中心副主任杰拉德·迪皮波表示。“这一判断支撑着自力更生努力背后的紧迫感。即使出现了暂时的稳定，也仍然保持着结构性的竞争态势。”

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and America’s attack on Venezuela in January — which led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and takeover of that country’s oil industry — may have deepened Chinese leaders’ wariness of Mr. Trump, said Daniel R. Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

曾任东亚和太平洋事务助理国务卿的丹尼尔·拉塞尔指出，美以目前对伊朗的持续袭击以及1月美国对委内瑞拉的攻击可能加深了中国领导人对特朗普的警惕。对委内瑞拉的攻击导致该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕，其石油工业被接管。

“Donald Trump may think he is demonstrating military strength that will intimidate Beijing,” said Mr. Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But his actions in Venezuela and Iran are more likely to drive Beijing’s determination to harden its capacity to resist the U.S. and to tighten its alignment with Russia.”

“唐纳德·特朗普可能认为他正在展示能威慑北京的军事实力，”现为亚洲协会政策研究所卓越研究员的拉塞尔表示。“但他对委内瑞拉和伊朗的行动更可能促使北京下定决心，强化其抵抗美国的能力，并加强与俄罗斯的协作。”

To fortify China against perceived threats, Mr. Xi is also committed to a continued buildup of the People’s Liberation Army forces, even after eviscerating its high command with purges that have removed his top generals and left key leadership posts vacant.

为了强化中国防御潜在威胁的能力，习近平还致力于持续建设中国人民解放军，尽管他刚刚对军队高层进行了大清洗，撤换多名高级将领，导致关键领导职位出现空缺。

周四参加开幕会的军队代表。

At the legislative meeting, the government said it would increase its military spending by 7 percent this year relative to last year. That rise would bring China’s annual spending on its armed forces to about $277 billion, which is about one third of the Trump administration’s proposed military spending for the 2026 fiscal year.

在立法会议上，政府表示今年的军费开支将比去年增长7%。这一增长将使中国每年的军费开支达到约1.91万亿元，约为特朗普政府提议的2026财年军事预算的三分之一。

But Mr. Xi has indicated that long-term victory depends less on raw spending and more on the country’s ability to dominate industries of the future.

但习近平已表明，长期的胜利更多要取决于国家主导未来产业的能力，而不是单纯的资金投入量。

In areas like A.I., robotics, quantum computing and 6G, “I think there’s a strong sense among China’s policymakers that they can take the lead over the U.S.,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution focusing on China’s industrial policies.

布鲁金斯学会专注于中国产业政策的研究员陈凯欣(Kyle Chan)表示，在人工智能、机器人、量子计算和6G等领域，“我认为中国决策者深信他们可以领先于美国。”

Although China’s economy, and especially its tech sector, is now heavily commercial, the goals laid down in the plan are like “huge flashing lights that orient central bureaucrats, local officials, domestic companies, and multinationals on the country’s priorities for the next five years,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and the author of a new study of China’s drive for technological breakthroughs.

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心研究员、一份关于中国技术突破的新研究报告的作者甘思德(Scott Kennedy)表示，尽管中国经济（尤其是科技部门）目前高度商业化，但计划中设定的目标就像“巨大的闪光信号灯，为中央官僚、地方官员、国内公司和跨国公司指明了未来五年的国家优先事项”。

“Policymakers will need to develop more specific policies to achieve these goals, and businesses will need to align their strategies, at least in name, toward these aims,” Mr. Kennedy wrote in emailed comments.

甘思德在电子邮件评论中写道：“决策者将需要制定更具体的政策来实现这些目标，企业则需要调整其战略，至少在名义上要向这些目标靠拢。”

The plan calls for investment to also flow into enhancing China’s advanced industries, such as industrial robots and pharmaceuticals. And while Mr. Xi sets the national vision, the execution often falls to local officials across the country, creating a surge in production that is likely to spill over China’s borders, further straining relations with trading partners.

该计划还要求资金流向提升中国的先进工业，如工业机器人和制药业。虽然习近平设定了国家愿景，但执行往往由全国各地的官员落实，由此引发的生产激增，极有可能溢出中国边境，进一步加剧与贸易伙伴的关系紧张。

“To the extent that industrial policies are implemented with little coordination across local levels, overcapacity will continue to be a feature,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies Chinese economic strategy. “This means Chinese producers will continue to find buyers around the world. The tactics are a combination of export and shifting production capacity overseas.”

“由于产业政策在实施过程中缺乏跨区域的协调，产能过剩将继续作为一种有意而为的特性存在，”外交关系协会研究中国经济战略的高级研究员刘宗媛(Zongyuan Zoe Liu)表示。“这意味着中国生产商将继续在世界范围内寻找买家。其策略是出口与向海外转移产能相结合。”