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从对抗到和解:特朗普学会跟中国打交道?

ANTON TROIANOVSKI, DAVID E. SANGER

周四,特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平抵达国宴现场。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times

In 2024, Donald J. Trump said China was “killing us as a country.” Last year, he complained that President Xi Jinping of China was “very tough, and extremely hard to make a deal with.” His tariffs on China reached 145 percent at one point.

2024年,特朗普曾表示,中国“正在毁灭我们这个国家”。去年,他又抱怨中国国家主席习近平“非常强硬,很难和他达成协议”。他对中国加征的关税一度高达145%。

The whiplash that followed culminated in the pageantry in Beijing this week.

随后出现的剧烈反转在本周北京隆重的欢迎仪式中达到了顶峰。

As Air Force One took off from the Chinese capital on Friday, it remained unclear what deals, if any, President Trump had clinched with Mr. Xi. But the two-day summit in Beijing underscored how far he has shifted the foundations of American policy toward China in the wake of his humbling retreat from last year’s trade war. He has thrown aside the adversarial approach of his first years in office, the Biden administration and the beginning of his own second term.

当“空军一号”周五从中国首都起飞时,外界仍不清楚特朗普总统究竟与习近平达成了哪些协议(如果有的话)。但此次为期两天的北京峰会凸显出,在去年贸易战受挫退让之后,特朗普对美国对华政策的基础做出了多么重大的调整。他已经抛弃了自己第一任期、拜登政府以及其第二任期初期所秉持的对抗路线。

What’s more, he has largely waved aside the warnings outlined in the Pentagon’s annual, unclassified accounting of China’s capabilities and intentions, which lays out a plan to push the United States out of the Western Pacific, engulf Taiwan, claim more territory in the South China Sea and escalate cyberattacks on the United States. He acknowledges that these threats are real. He has just reversed his view of how to deal with them.

更重要的是,他在很大程度上置五角大楼年度非涉密报告的警示于不顾——该报告系统梳理了中国的军事能力与战略意图,包括将美国逐出西太平洋、吞并台湾、在南中国海攫取更多领土,并升级对美国的网络攻击等具体图谋。他承认这些威胁确实存在,但彻底转变了应对它们的思路。

In Beijing, Mr. Trump clapped for Chinese children waving American flags, toasted the “special relationship” between the American and Chinese people, called Mr. Xi a “great leader” and exclaimed that the garden where he walked with Mr. Xi held “the most beautiful roses anyone’s ever seen.” When Mr. Trump introduced the Chinese leader to the 17 or so American executives who came to Beijing, he said they had joined him “to pay respects to you, China.”

在北京,特朗普为挥舞美国国旗的中国儿童鼓掌,举杯庆祝美中人民之间“非常特殊的关系”,称习近平是“一位伟大的领导人”,并感叹他与习近平散步的那座园林中盛开着“全世界最美的月季”。在向中国领导人介绍随行的约17位美国企业高管时,特朗普说,这些人来到北京是为了“向你、向中国致敬”。

Mr. Trump said nothing in public in Beijing about Taiwan, even as Mr. Xi sharply warned that disagreement over the self-governing democracy could lead to a “clash.” Mr. Trump boasted of big Chinese purchases of Boeing airplanes and soybeans, though details were slim — just his own accounting of his wins, conveyed to reporters on Air Force One soon after liftoff from Beijing. Mr. Xi’s government did not confirm the purchases.

特朗普在北京没有就台湾问题发表任何公开言论,尽管习近平严厉警告,对这个自治民主政体的分歧可能导致“冲突”。特朗普宣称中国将大量采购波音飞机和大豆,但细节寥寥——这些只是他在“空军一号”从北京起飞后不久向记者们讲述的成果。习近平政府对这些采购并未予以证实。

15dc china trump ledeall02 photo gmfc master1050周四,北京,拍摄特朗普总统车队的民众。

And Mr. Trump insisted that Beijing and Washington were on the same page on Iran, even as the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday reiterated its position that his war “should not have happened in the first place.”

特朗普还坚称北京与华盛顿在伊朗问题上立场一致,尽管中国外交部周五再度重申,他发动的这场战争“本不该发生”。

Taken together, the picture of a deferential American president and a confident Chinese leader reflected Mr. Xi’s success, despite his country’s bleak economic picture, in derailing the hawkish approach to China that Mr. Trump adopted at the start of his second term.

综合这一切,一位恭敬的美国总统与一位自信的中国领导人形成的画面反映了习近平的成功——尽管中国经济形势黯淡,他成功扭转了特朗普在第二任期开始时采取的对华强硬路线。

The tone the two men set, in what could be the first of four meetings this year, was one in which they would work to defuse years of built-up tension — some of which Mr. Trump built up himself — even as the Iran war has created a new potential flashpoint.

两人为这次会晤定下的基调(这可能是他们今年四次会晤中的第一次)更倾向于缓和多年积累的紧张关系——其中部分是特朗普自己造成的,尽管伊朗战争已经制造了新的潜在爆点。

John Delury, a historian of East Asia, said that even though the summit had produced few tangible outcomes in terms of economic deals or political agreements, it had the potential to affect the geopolitical mood, both in China and the United States. Mr. Trump’s friendly statements toward Mr. Xi and the Chinese people were being amplified in China’s state-controlled media, sending the message that “we’re getting along better with the Americans,” said Mr. Delury.

东亚史专家鲁乐汉(John Delury)表示,尽管此次峰会在经济协议或政治共识方面鲜有实质性成果,但它有可能影响中美两国的地缘政治情绪。鲁乐汉说,特朗普对习近平和中国人民的友好表态正在被中国官方媒体放大,传递出“我们与美国人的关系改善了”的信息。

And in the United States, Mr. Trump was telling voters who previously heard him describe China as a sinister, destructive force that it was a country America should do business with. The Washington narrative about “decoupling” — the idea that the United States should unwind its economic ties to China — seemed part of a bygone era.

在美国国内,特朗普正在告诉那些曾听他将中国描绘成阴险破坏力量的选民:中国其实是一个美国应该与之做生意的国家。华盛顿关于“脱钩”的叙事——即美国应切断与中国的经济联系——似乎正在成为过去式。

“You don’t pack Air Force One with your biggest business leaders when you’re decoupling,” said Mr. Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society. “Trump is sending that message to his people — to some extent the whole country — that we can get along with China even though we’re still going to compete.”

“如果你正在脱钩,就不会在‘空军一号’上装那么多商界大佬,”亚洲协会高级研究员鲁乐汉说。“特朗普在向他的人民——在某种程度上是向整个国家——传递一个信息:我们可以与中国相处,尽管竞争仍将继续。”

But there are dangers in that approach, in the view of some former American officials who have served in Beijing. R. Nicholas Burns, the ambassador to China during the Biden administration, said that it was understandable that Mr. Trump wanted to be polite to Mr. Xi, but that the American president’s gushing approach “weakens Trump and the U.S.”

但一些曾在北京任职的前美国官员认为,这种做法存在风险。拜登政府时期的美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯表示,特朗普对习近平保持礼貌是可以理解的,但这位美国总统过于热络的姿态“削弱了特朗普和美国的立场”。

“Xi did not hesitate to warn Trump over Taiwan,” Mr. Burns said. “Trump should not hesitate to be frank about our concerns, too.”

“习近平毫不犹豫地在台湾问题上警告了特朗普,”伯恩斯说。“特朗普也不应该犹豫,同样坦率地表达我们的关切。"

The summit produced little clarity about the policy details of the new relationship that Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi were shaping. Da Wei, the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said the United States did not appear to have “put enough energy” into the visit.

关于特朗普和习近平正在塑造的这种新关系的政策细节,此次峰会几乎没有带来任何清晰的答案。清华大学国际安全与战略研究中心主任达巍表示,美国对这次访问似乎没有“投入足够的精力”。

“The U.S. side looked a little passive,” Mr. Da said, asserting that Mr. Trump had said little of substance on the trip. “The Chinese side prepared very well.”

“美方看起来有些被动,”达巍说,他认为特朗普此行几乎没有谈及什么实质内容。“中方准备得非常充分。”

The United States went into the summit hoping to convince China to do more to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize global energy markets, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the flight to Beijing this week. And China had hopes that Mr. Trump might nudge American policy on Taiwan in Beijing’s favor.

美国国务卿鲁比奥本周在飞往北京的途中表示,美国希望借此次峰会说服中国在推动伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、稳定全球能源市场方面发挥更大作用。中国则希望特朗普可以在台湾问题上让美国的政策向北京倾斜。

15dc china trump ledeall03 photo bqtz master1050国宴上的特朗普。他对习近平和中国民众的友好表态正在被中国官方媒体放大。

There was no evidence that China had changed its position on Iran, even though Mr. Trump asserted that he and Mr. Xi “feel very similar” about it. On Air Force One, Mr. Trump did not name a single way in which Mr. Xi had agreed to change the situation on the ground — or whether it had agreed to stop giving Iran access to satellite imagery that helps it target U.S. forces and Gulf states.

但没有证据表明中国改变了在伊朗问题上的立场,尽管特朗普声称他与习近平“感觉非常相似”。在“空军一号”上,特朗普并未具体说明习近平同意改变实际局势的任何一种具体方式,也未说明中国是否同意停止向伊朗提供卫星图像,支持其针对美国及海湾国家目标的行动。

China’s foreign ministry said that Middle East “shipping channels should be reopened as soon as possible,” but it did not indicate it would put more pressure on Iran, which relies on China as the main buyer of its oil.

中国外交部表示,“应尽快重开”中东航道,但并未表示将向伊朗施加更多压力。伊朗依赖中国作为其石油的主要买家。

Mr. Trump did not comment on Taiwan until reporters asked him about it on the flight from Beijing, at which point he offered little reassurance to those hoping for a robust American defense of Taiwan’s democracy.

在从北京起飞的飞机上,直到媒体问起,特朗普才就台湾问题作出回应,而即便在那时,他也几乎没有让那些希望美国坚决捍卫台湾民主的人感到安心。

He suggested that he might reconsider a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that has been awaiting his final approval. When a reporter noted that President Ronald Reagan had assured Taiwan, more than 40 years ago, that no president would consult Chinese leaders on the size or nature of such arms packages, he dismissed the whole notion, saying that was a long time ago.

他表示,可能会重新考虑一项价值140亿美元的对台军售方案,该方案一直在等待他的最终批准。当记者指出,40多年前的里根总统曾向台湾保证,美国总统不会就军售规模或性质征求中国领导人的意见时,他对这一说法不以为意,认为那已经是很久以前的事了。

“I’ll be making a decision” about arms sales, Mr. Trump said, suggesting he would announce something soon.

“我会做出决定”,特朗普在谈到对台军售时说道,并表示很快会宣布相关决定。

He said Mr. Xi had asked whether the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacked it, and that he had not given the Chinese leader a response. “I said, ‘I don’t talk about those things,’” Mr. Trump said.

他说习近平曾问起,如果中国攻打台湾,美国是否会出手,而他当时没有给这位中国领导人答复。“我说,‘我不谈这些事情,’”特朗普说。

Mr. Xi accompanied Mr. Trump at all his public events across Beijing on Thursday and Friday. It was an extraordinary time commitment by the Chinese leader, according to Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. Mr. Trump told reporters on his plane that the secretive residential compound Mr. Xi showed him on Friday was “amazing” and marveled that he had gotten to see it.

周四和周五,习近平全程陪同特朗普出席了在北京的所有公开活动。华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示,这对中国领导人而言是一项非同寻常的时间投入。特朗普在专机上告诉记者,习近平周五带他参观的那处神秘宅邸令他“惊叹不已”,并感慨自己有幸得以一窥其中。

Chinese officials “realize that this current moment of positivity is a very Trump-specific phenomenon that may not be sustainable,” Ms. Sun said.

中国官员“意识到,眼下这种积极的氛围是一种与特朗普本人高度绑定的现象,未必能够持久”,孙韵说。

15dc china trump ledeall04 photo hjqz master1050天安门广场,摄于周五。

Analysts in Beijing said they recognized that U.S. policy could turn on a dime, and Mr. Xi signaled that he was tailoring his foreign policy to Mr. Trump specifically.

北京的分析人士认为,他们清楚美国的政策可能随时转向,而习近平释放出的信号表明,他正在专门针对特朗普调整自己的外交政策。

Mr. Xi presented Mr. Trump with a new concept for the U.S.-Chinese relationship called “constructive strategic stability,” according to Chinese state media, but specified a time frame that coincided with the end of Mr. Trump’s term: “the next three years and beyond.” And as he met with Mr. Trump on Friday at the residential compound, Zhongnanhai, Mr. Xi compared his “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” to Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, according to a Chinese government statement.

据中国官方媒体称,习近平向特朗普提出了一个关于美中关系的新概念,称为“建设性战略稳定”,并设定了一个与特朗普任期结束相吻合的时间框架:“未来三年乃至更长时间”。在周五于中南海与特朗普会晤时,习近平还将自己的“中华民族伟大复兴”与特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”进行了类比。

A question looming over all the camaraderie was how long the upbeat tone would last. Early in Mr. Trump’s first term, a similarly convivial Beijing summit in 2017 was followed by a hawkish turn against China.

萦绕在这种友好气氛之上的是一个悬而未决的问题:这种积极基调究竟能持续多久。在特朗普首个任期初期,2017年同样宾主尽欢的北京峰会过后,美国对华态度就转向了强硬。

But analysts in both China and the United States said Mr. Trump’s attitude to Beijing was different now. For one thing, he has seen China’s ability to retaliate against the United States, as it did by throttling rare earth exports last year, forcing Mr. Trump to back down in his trade war.

但中美两国的分析人士都表示,特朗普现在对北京的态度今非昔比。一方面,他已亲眼见识了中国的反制能力——去年通过限制稀土出口,中国迫使特朗普在贸易战中作出让步。

“Everyone has a learning curve,” said Sun Chenghao, a specialist in U.S.-China relations at Tsinghua University. Now, he said, “Mr. Trump knows how to deal with China.”

“谁都有一个学习曲线,”清华大学中美关系专家孙成昊说。他表,现在“特朗普已经知道如何跟中国打交道了”。

Anton Troianovski自华盛顿为《纽约时报》报道有关美国外交政策和国家安全的文章。他此前曾在莫斯科和柏林任驻外记者。

David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年,著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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