As China’s leader, Xi Jinping, forges toward a fourth term in power, he confronts a dilemma common to aging autocrats: testing and recruiting a rising generation of loyal officials while ensuring his own dominance.

随着中国领导人习近平向第四个任期迈进，他面临年长威权领导人普遍会遇到的难题：如何在确保自己绝对主导地位的同时，考察并培养新一代忠诚的官员。

To manage this looming challenge, he is leaning on Cai Qi, a longtime deputy who is probably the most influential official in Mr. Xi’s inner circle.

为了应对这一日益逼近的挑战，他正倚重蔡奇——一位长期追随习近平左右、在其核心圈子中或许最具影响力的副手。

Tall, silver-haired, and constantly at Mr. Xi’s side, Mr. Cai is a supercharged chief of staff to his leader. Mr. Cai holds multiple leading roles, including in national security and running the central office for Mr. Xi and other senior Communist Party officials.

身材高大、满头银发、几乎时刻陪伴在习近平身边的蔡奇堪称领导人的超级幕僚长。他身兼多个领导职务，包括国家安全领域，以及为习近平和其他中共高级官员服务的中央办公厅。

Mr. Xi recently appointed him president of the Central Party School, the elite academy that trains rising officials. Mr. Cai is also overseeing a new campaign to instill Mr. Xi’s ideas about discipline and loyalty among cadres.

最近，习近平任命他兼任中央党校校长，这所学校是中共培养未来领导干部的摇篮。蔡奇同时还负责主持一项新运动，旨在向广大干部灌输习近平关于纪律和忠诚的理念。

Mr. Cai’s new roles indicated that he might take an important role in vetting potential new senior officials and enforcing the strict ideological standards that Mr. Xi is likely to expect from a new cohort of potential leaders. Mr. Xi is expected to secure another five-year term at a Communist Party congress late next year, a feat that would extend his rule to at least 20 years and potentially well into the 2030s.

蔡奇的这些新职务表明，他可能在把关未来的高层人选、执行习近平可能对新一批储备领导人提出的严苛意识形态标准方面发挥重要作用。预计习近平将在明年年底召开的中共党代会上获得又一个五年任期，这将使他的执政时间延长至至少20年，并有可能延续至2030年代中后期。

“The ability to speak on behalf of Xi Jinping is the rarest commodity in elite Chinese politics, and Cai Qi has that,” said Julian Gewirtz, who served as the senior director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration and is now a scholar at Columbia University.

“代表习近平发言的能力是中国高层政治中最稀缺的特质，而蔡奇恰恰拥有它，”曾在拜登政府国家安全委员会担任中国事务高级主任、现为哥伦比亚大学学者的朱利安·格维兹说。

He said that Mr. Cai’s leadership of the party school meant that he was “probably one of a very small number of people who can prepare the dossiers for Xi on those officials.”

他还表示，蔡奇执掌中央党校意味着他“很可能是极少数能够为习近平准备这些官员档案资料的人之一”。

习近平与蔡奇去年在北京。

Mr. Cai, 70, is among a cluster of senior officials who first worked with Mr. Xi when he was still a young official in eastern China in the 1990s and 2000s. In recent years, Mr. Cai appears to have risen to become Mr. Xi’s closest adviser and the tough enforcer of his vision. (Mr. Cai’s name is pronounced TSIGH Chee.)

现年70岁的蔡奇是最早与习近平共事的高层官员之一——那还是上世纪90年代和本世纪前十年，习近平当时在中国东部担任地方官员。近年来，蔡奇似乎已经成为习近平最得力的心腹，也是及其政治愿景的强硬执行者。

“Into the second decade of his rule, Xi has come to value strict adherence to his stated desires, and Cai has been the official to ensure that,” said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California San Diego who studies elite politics in China.

“进入执政第二个十年，习近平愈发看重对他既定意图的严格贯彻，而蔡奇正是确保这一点得以落实的官员，”研究中国精英政治的加州大学圣地亚哥分校教授史宗瀚说。

Mr. Cai did not always seem so stern. Back in the 1990s and 2000s, as an official in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, he cultivated a reputation as an approachable, open-minded official.

蔡奇并非总是显得如此严厉。20世纪90年代和21世纪初，在担任福建省和浙江省的地方官员时，他曾以平易近人、思想开明著称。

He visited Taiwan in 2012 and wrote a travel diary that praised its many convenience stores. He opened a Weibo social media account that attracted millions of followers, with posts addressing residents’ complaints and presenting himself as an enlightened, open official.

2012年他曾访问台湾，并写下旅行日记，称赞台湾遍布各地的便利店。他还开设了微博账号，吸引了数百万粉丝，发帖回应民众的诉求，将自己塑造成一位开明、开放的官员。

“Openness is a good thing,” he wrote in one post. “For any political party, relying on self-restraint is not enough.”

“公开是个好东西，”他曾在一条微博中写道。“任何政党，仅仅靠自我约束是不够的。”

But after Mr. Cai was transferred to Beijing by Mr. Xi, he shed his folksy demeanor and quickly transformed into a guardian of Mr. Xi’s draconian priorities. He erased his Weibo account. In 2014, Mr. Cai helped establish the secretive Central National Security Commission, which expanded Beijing’s control over domestic and external security risks.

但在蔡奇被习近平调往北京之后，他便卸下亲民姿态，迅速转变为习近平强硬政策的捍卫者。他注销了自己的微博账号。2014年，蔡奇参与筹建了神秘的中央国家安全委员会，进一步扩大了北京对国内外安全风险的掌控。

Three years later, Mr. Xi promoted Mr. Cai to be the mayor and party secretary of Beijing, a sensitive role focused on ensuring stability and order in the Chinese capital. Mr. Cai waged campaigns to remake the city in line with Mr. Xi’s vision.

三年后，习近平提拔蔡奇出任北京市市长和市委书记。这是一个极其敏感的职位，主要任务是确保首都的稳定与秩序。蔡奇随后开展了一系列行动，按照习近平的设想重塑北京。

In late 2017, Mr. Cai launched a drive to expel hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from Beijing in the name of housing safety. The city government had long been trying to reduce the number of low-income migrants in Beijing and to attract more higher-paid, university-educated professionals.

2017年底，蔡奇以房屋安全的名义发起了一场驱逐数十万外来务工人员的行动。北京市政府长期以来一直试图减少北京低收入外来人口的规模，吸引更多拥有大学学历的高薪专业人才。

2017年，蔡奇在北京发起了一场驱逐外来务工人员的行动。在大兴，整片的街区被拆除清空，居民的个人物品散落一地。

In a combative speech, Mr. Cai used the imagery of battle to order officials not to flinch from enforcing the unpopular expulsions.

在一次措辞强硬的讲话中，蔡奇以战场厮杀为喻，要求官员在执行这项不得人心的驱逐行动时，不得手软退缩。

“At the grass roots, it’s about using real swords and real guns, putting blood on the blade, having the guts to clash head-on,” Mr. Cai said in a speech to Beijing officials that circulated online. Mr. Cai’s brutal approach ignited widespread criticism in the city, including petitions and a call for him to resign.

“到了基层，就是要真刀真枪、就是要刺刀见红、就是要敢于硬碰硬，”蔡奇在一次面向北京官员的讲话中说道，该讲话在网上广为流传。他的强硬手段在北京引发强烈批评，出现了联署请愿，还有人公开呼吁他辞职。

In 2022, Mr. Xi promoted Mr. Cai to the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s top echelon. Mr. Cai also became the director of the party’s General Office and head of its Secretariat, putting him in charge of the paperwork, meetings, health, security and travel of senior officials, including Mr. Xi.

2022年，习近平提拔蔡奇进入中共中央政治局常委会，这是中共最高权力核心。蔡奇同时还出任中共中央办公厅主任和中央书记处书记，负责包括习近平在内的高层官员的文件处理、会议安排、健康保障、安全警卫和出行事务。

Official reports indicate that Mr. Cai also oversees cybersecurity policy and is a deputy head of the Central National Security Commission, which monitors threats at home and abroad, roles that are usually kept behind a veil of secrecy. But his importance to Mr. Xi is clear. When Mr. Xi hosted President Trump on a state visit in May, Mr. Cai was first in the line of officials whom Mr. Xi introduced to Mr. Trump at a welcome ceremony.

官方报道显示，蔡奇还负责网络安全政策，并担任中央国家安全委员会副主席，该委员会负责监督国内外安全威胁，这些职务通常笼罩在保密的面纱之下。但蔡奇对习近平的重要性显而易见。今年5月，习近平接待美国总统进行国事访问时，蔡奇在他向特朗普介绍的官员队伍中排第一位。

Now Mr. Cai’s role overseeing party affairs may give him a voice in choosing the officials who will help Mr. Xi achieve his goal of transforming China into a technological superpower and of bringing Taiwan, the democratic self-ruled island, under Beijing’s control.

现在，蔡奇主管党务工作的角色或将赋予他在选拔官员方面的话语权——这些官员将协助习近平实现将中国打造成科技强国、将民主自治岛屿台湾置于北京控制之下这两大目标。

In 2018, Mr. Xi abolished a limit on his tenure as president, opening the way to lead indefinitely. Analysts say they do not expect Mr. Xi, 73, to name his own successor for years, to maintain his unchallenged control of the state.

2018年，习近平取消了国家主席任期限制，为无限期执政铺平了道路。分析人士认为，为了维持无人挑战的权力，现年73岁的习近平未来几年内不会指定接班人。

Even so, Mr. Xi will need to replenish the ranks of top officials. More than two-thirds of the officials on the Communist Party’s Central Committee — a leadership council that has about 200 full members — will retire next year if an age norm applies. That norm means that most senior officials who are 68 or older at the time of the party congress step down.

即便如此，习近平仍需要补充高层官员队伍。如果年龄惯例继续适用，那么中共中央委员会约200名正式委员中，超过三分之二将在明年退休。根据这一惯例，在党代会召开时年满68岁或以上的大多数高级官员都将卸任。

“When a political strongman like Xi Jinping reaches his late years, his sense of insecurity and distrust can rise, but he is not as familiar as he used to be with his new subordinates, which makes establishing that trust harder,” said Chien-wen Kou, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan who studies China’s leaders.

“像习近平（这样）一个政治强人到晚年的时候，他的不安全感、他的不信任感是会上升的，可是他面对下面的这些部下是沒有像以前那么熟了，所以形成信任会更难的，”台湾政治大学研究中国领导人的教授寇健文表示。

But the opportunity to promote hundreds of officials carries risks. Mr. Xi has purged the People’s Liberation Army elite of many of the senior officers he had chosen to promote. Those accused of corruption and disloyalty and removed included General Zhang Youxia, whom Mr. Xi had kept on beyond the usual retirement age and appointed China’s top uniformed commander.

然而，提拔数百名官员的机会也伴随着风险。习近平此前清洗了多名由他亲手提拔的解放军高级将领。被指控腐败和不忠并被免职的人中，包括张又侠上将。习近平曾打破年龄惯例让他留任，并任命他为解放军最高指挥官。

蔡奇（满头银发、系红领带者）于2022年进入中共中央政治局常委会，这是中共权力的最高核心层。现在，预计他将在下一代高层官员的选拔过程中发挥关键作用。

“Given all that has happened, Xi Jinping will be even more cautious in recruitment screening ahead of the 21st party congress,” said Deng Yuwen, a former editor at the Study Times, a newspaper published by the Central Party School. “Xi Jinping wants to make sure that the ideas of future party and government cadres stay totally aligned with his.”

“既然出现这个事情，习近平对二十一大前的人事筛选工作会更加慎重，”曾任中央党校机关报《学习时报》编辑、现居美国的邓聿文说。“习近平要确保未来的党政干部的思想，要跟习近平保持完全一致。”

Even if Mr. Cai also steps down from his other roles next year, which is possible given his age, he may stay as president of the party school, said Mr. Deng, who now lives in the United States. Mr. Cai could then serve as Mr. Xi’s eyes and ears, spotting and vetting officials for promotion in coming years.

邓聿文还表示，即便明年蔡奇因年龄原因退下来，他仍可能继续担任中央党校校长。届时，蔡奇可能继续充当习近平的耳目，在未来几年为其物色、考察和筛选有望晋升的官员人选。