By laying out U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China, President Trump has handed a gift to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his efforts to undermine the Taiwanese government.

特朗普总统将美国对台军售作为与中国谈判的筹码，这无疑给试图削弱台湾政府的中国领导人习近平送上了一份大礼。

On Monday, China’s state media used Mr. Trump’s comments to send a message at home and to Taiwan: that the United States cannot be relied on to defend Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

周一，中国官方媒体利用特朗普的言论向国内和台湾传达了一个信息：不能指望美国来保卫台湾——这个北京声称为其领土的岛屿民主政体。

President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan, a frequent target of Beijing’s vitriol, and his Democratic Progressive Party can no longer rely on “unconditional indulgence” from the United States, said the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper, citing a Chinese researcher.

中国报纸《环球时报》援引一位中国研究人员的话称，经常遭到北京方面猛烈抨击的台湾总统赖清德及其民进党，已不能再指望美国的“无底线纵容”。

“Security cannot be bought with military purchases; if you become a pawn, you will only be squeezed dry,” said Col. Jiang Bin, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense, on Monday, referring to Taiwan.

“军购买不来安全；甘当‘棋子’只会被榨干吃净，”中国国防部发言人蒋斌大校周一在谈到台湾时表示。

The American president’s comments had been released over the weekend, after Mr. Trump left a summit with Mr. Xi in Beijing on Friday. He said he was keeping on hold a decision about a package of weapons to Taiwan worth around $14 billion, and described it as a “very good negotiating chip” that could be used with Beijing.

特朗普上周五结束了在北京与习近平的峰会，周末他发表了相关言论。他表示，他将暂缓一项价值约140亿美元的对台武器一揽子计划的决定，并称其为一个可用于同北京周旋的“非常好的谈判筹码”。

“I’m holding that in abeyance and it depends on China,” he said in an interview with Fox News. It was not immediately clear what Mr. Trump wanted China to do in return.

“我暂时搁置了这个决定，这取决于中国，”他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示。目前尚不清楚特朗普希望中国做出什么回报。

Pressure on Iran?

向伊朗施压？

The United States went into the summit hoping to persuade China to do more to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump later said he had discussed Iran with Mr. Xi but the details of their discussions have not emerged.

参加此次峰会时，美国希望说服中国采取更多措施，促使伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。特朗普后来表示，他与习近平讨论了伊朗问题，但讨论的细节尚未披露。

China has pushed Iran to negotiate with the United States, and has called for the Strait of Hormuz to be open.

中国一直敦促伊朗与美国谈判，并呼吁保持霍尔木兹海峡的开放。

本月德黑兰的一块广告牌，描绘着霍尔木兹海峡。

But Beijing has strong strategic reasons to avoid siding explicitly with the United States and Israel against Iran, its partner in the Middle East, in a war it has repeatedly said should not have happened.

但北京有强有力的战略理由避免明确与美国和以色列站在一边反对自己在中东的伙伴伊朗，北京曾多次表示这场战争本不应该发生。

Even if China were willing to use its influence over Tehran, it would not want it to be seen as an explicit quid pro quo for U.S. concessions on Taiwan, said ​​Bao Chengke, a researcher of Shanghai Cross-Strait Research Association, an organization in Shanghai.

上海海峡两岸研究会研究员包承柯表示，即使中国愿意利用其对德黑兰的影响力，也不希望这被视为是换取美国在台湾问题上做出让步的明确交换条件。

“He tends to act like a businessman, understanding issues through the lens of deal-making,” Mr. Bao said of Mr. Trump. “But tying the two issues so tightly together really isn’t feasible.”

“他比较偏向是企业家，他用更多交易的方式在理解这些问题，”包承柯在谈到特朗普时说。“但把两者关系衔接得这么紧的话，真不是可以衔接的。”

More Purchases of U.S. Goods?

购买更多美国商品？

If Mr. Trump were to suspend the $14 billion package, or scale back the number and sophistication of the weapons, China could respond in a few ways, said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University.

复旦大学台湾研究中心主任信强表示，如果特朗普暂停这140亿美元的一揽子计划，或者缩减武器的数量和先进程度，中国可能会以几种方式做出回应。

For instance, China could buy more American farm produce and Boeing planes, Professor Xin said.

信强表示，例如，中国可以购买更多美国农产品和波音飞机。

President Trump and Boeing have already said that China had agreed to order 200 of the company’s planes. The Trump administration also said on Sunday that China had agreed to “purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products” in 2026, 2027 and 2028, though the amount this year would be prorated.

特朗普总统和波音公司已经表示，中国同意订购200架该公司的飞机。特朗普政府周日还表示，中国已同意在2026、2027和2028年“每年购买至少170亿美元的美国农产品”，不过今年的金额将按比例折算。

Beijing’s official position is that Taiwan is a domestic issue and any continued U.S. arms sales to the island are unacceptable. But it can be pragmatic, too, Mr. Xin said.

北京的官方立场是，台湾问题属于中国内政，美国任何持续对台军售行为都不可接受。但信强表示，中国也可以很务实。

“China has never wanted to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States,” he said. “But realistically, any issue can in essence become a bargaining chip in the course of international relations or great power competition.”

“中国一直不希望把对台军售这问题把它当作一个筹码来跟美国来谈，”他说。“但是我觉得实事求是的讲，在国际关系或者大国博弈过程中，本质上而言任何一个议题都是一个筹码。”

A Messaging Win for Beijing

北京在宣传上的胜利

In some ways, Beijing has already benefited from Mr. Trump’s gambit.

在某些方面，北京已经从特朗普的策略中获益。

Mr. Trump’s remarks suggested he had partly absorbed China’s depiction of Mr. Lai as a dangerous separatist seeking to lead the United States to war. (Mr. Lai and his government say Taiwan is in reality already independent, and that it is Beijing that is the aggressor.)

特朗普的言论表明，他已部分接受了中国对赖清德的描绘——一个试图将美国卷入战争的危险分裂分子。（赖清德及其政府表示，台湾实际上已经独立，北京才是侵略者。）

Mr. Trump also questioned whether the United States could successfully come to Taiwan’s defense in a war. “I’m not looking to have somebody go independent and, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war,” he said.

特朗普还对美国能否在一场战争中成功保卫台湾表示质疑。“我不想看到有人独立，然后，你知道的，我们还得跑到9500英里之外去打仗，”他说。

台湾总统赖清德（右）去年在台湾东部某军事基地视察一架美国制造的战斗机。

Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese leadership politics, said: “I think Xi Jinping believes he succeeded in one respect in this summit — that is, in educating Trump on Taiwan.”

研究中国领导层政治的克莱蒙特·麦肯纳学院教授裴敏欣表示：“我认为习近平相信他在此次峰会的某一方面取得了成功——那就是在台湾问题上教育了特朗普。”

“In the view of Chinese people, Trump’s comments on the Taiwan issue are a massive breakthrough,” said Wang Wen, a former Chinese journalist in Beijing who is now a professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

“在中国人看来，特朗普对台湾问题的表态是巨大的突破，”王文说，他曾是驻北京的一名中国记者，现任北京人民大学教授。

Beijing can gain some advantage simply if Mr. Trump puts off any approval for long enough, some analysts said.

一些分析人士说，只要特朗普把批准军售的时间推迟得足够长，北京就能获得一些优势。

“The question is whether the pending $14 billion sale is delayed for weeks, months, or longer,” said Craig Singleton, the China Program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “A prolonged hold, especially one shaped by Beijing’s objections, would raise much more serious concerns about the reliability of U.S. deterrence.”

“问题在于，这项悬而未决的140亿美元军售会被推迟几周、几个月，还是更长的时间，”华盛顿保卫民主基金会中国项目高级主任克雷格·辛格尔顿说。“长时间的搁置，特别是因北京的反对而造成的搁置，将引发人们对美国威慑力可靠性的更严重担忧。”

Trouble for Taiwan?

台湾的麻烦？

Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Nationalist Party, which supports closer ties with China, has seized on this moment to argue that President Lai has pushed the island into a dangerous bind — distrusted by Beijing, unable to rely on Washington.

台湾的主要反对党——支持与中国建立更紧密关系的国民党——抓住了这个时机，称赖清德总统已将台湾推入了一个危险的困境：既不被北京信任，也无法指望华盛顿。

“I believe the Trump-Xi summit represents a turning point for Taiwan,” Su Chi, a former senior official who had worked under Nationalist Party administrations, said at a forum in Taipei. “Our big brother, America, I’m sorry, he has too many problems right now and simply cannot take care of us here.”

曾在国民党政府担任高级官员的苏起在台北的一个论坛上表示：“川习会我认为是台湾的一个转折点。美国老大哥，对不起，他现在有很多事情，他根本顾不到这里。”

Mr. Lai and his officials have argued that Mr. Trump’s comments do not shift relations. They have pointed to parts of Mr. Trump’s comments, including that “nothing’s changed” on policy toward Taiwan. They have also pointed to comments from Trump administration officials, including Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, that policy on Taiwan is unchanged.

赖清德及其官员则称，特朗普的言论并没有改变双方关系。他们指出了特朗普评论中的某些部分，包括在对台政策上“没有任何改变”。他们还援引包括美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在内的特朗普政府官员的表态，他们称对台政策没有改变。

“I don’t think the Taiwanese public needs to worry,” Chen Ming-chi, a Taiwanese deputy minister of foreign affairs, told reporters. “I believe the United States security commitments to us and our bilateral economic and trade relations are being maintained just as before.”

“我想台湾民众本来就不需要担心，”台湾外交部次长陈明祺对记者说。“美方对于我们的安全承诺，对于我们双边的这个经贸的关系，我想都还是保持跟以前一样。”