
In 1940, the imperial regimes of Germany and Japan joined what would be known as the Axis powers, bound by mutual opposition to the United States. They fought a world war, and they lost it, and their populations spent the next 85 years with shrunken militaries and a heavy reliance on their former enemy, America, for security.
1940年,德国和日本的帝国政权加入了后来被称为轴心国的联盟,它们因共同对抗美国而走到了一起。它们打了一场世界大战并战败,接下来的85年里,两国的军事力量被缩减,在安全上严重依赖前敌国美国。
Now, both countries’ wariness of America has resurfaced, alongside heightened fears about a surging world power, China, and an aggressive Russia. Tokyo and Berlin are rushing to rebuild their militaries. And, once again, they are strengthening ties.
如今,两国对美国的警惕感重新浮现,与此同时,对正在崛起的世界大国中国以及具有侵略性的俄罗斯的担忧也在加剧。东京和柏林正急于重建各自的军队。并且,它们正再一次加强联系。
Their cooperation is expected to gather momentum at the meeting of the leaders of the Group of 7 nations in Evian, France, this week. It already includes sharing know-how, technology and weapons, like drones and helicopters, critical to the countries’ respective efforts to rearm.
它们的合作预计将在本周于法国埃维昂举行的七国集团首脑会议上得到更多推动。这种合作此前已经包含了共享专门知识、技术和无人机、直升机等武器,这些对于两国各自重整军备的努力至关重要。
It is hardly an Axis redux. This time, Japan and Germany are banding together from a defensive posture, with Berlin supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia, and Tokyo wary of threats posed by China and North Korea. They are joining other like-minded “middle powers,” like fellow Group of 7 members Britain, Canada and France — their enemies in World War II. And they are casting themselves as champions of international law and institutions that serve as bulwarks against the bullying behaviors of the world’s most powerful countries.
这谈不上轴心国卷土重来。这一次,日本和德国是以防御姿态联合在一起,柏林支持乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的防务,东京则对中国和朝鲜构成的威胁保持警惕。它们正加入其他志同道合的“中等强国”,例如同为七国集团成员的英国、加拿大和法国——这些它们在第二次世界大战中的敌人。并且,它们将自己塑造成国际法和国际机构的捍卫者、抵御世界上最强大国家的霸凌行为的坚固堡垒。
As Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, said in March at a Japanese naval base, nations like Germany and Japan, “who still stand by the rules-based international order, must move even closer together and make clear what we stand for.”
正如德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯今年3月在日本一个海军基地所说,像德国和日本这样“仍然捍卫基于规则的国际秩序”的国家,“必须走得更近,并明确我们所代表的立场。”
德国士兵上周在明斯特训练。第二次世界大战后,反军国主义运动在德国和日本得势,但两国的观点近期发生了转变。
Both Germany and Japan emerged from the devastation of World War II with a focus on rebuilding ravaged cities and stoking economic growth. They allowed the United States and other allies to shoulder much of the burden of keeping their citizens safe.
德国和日本从第二次世界大战的毁灭性破坏中走出,将精力集中在重建被毁坏的城市和刺激经济增长上,将保障本国公民安全的大部分责任交由美国及其他盟友承担。
After Germany split in two, America built large military bases and stationed tens of thousands of troops in West Germany, a frontline outpost in the Cold War with the Soviet Union. The governments of both East and West Germany maintained their own large armies, but after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, the reunified country spent far more on social programs than on defense.
德国一分为二之后,美国在西德建立了大型军事基地并驻扎了数万名士兵,西德是与苏联冷战的前哨。东德和西德政府虽然维持着各自庞大的军队,但在柏林墙倒塌和冷战结束之后,统一后的国家在社会项目上的支出远多于国防。
Postwar Japan adopted an American-imposed Constitution, drafted under Gen. Douglas MacArthur. It forced the Japanese to renounce war and prohibited keeping armed forces except for defensive purposes. That led to the creation of the Self-Defense Forces, which remains the official name for the country’s military.
战后的日本采用了由美国强加的、在道格拉斯·麦克阿瑟将军指导下起草的宪法。它迫使日本放弃战争,并禁止保持武装力量,除非是出于防御目的。这导致了自卫队的建立,这至今仍是该国军队的官方名称。
In the decades after the war, anti-militarist movements gained traction in both countries, promoting the ideals of peace, diplomacy, free trade and cultural exchange.
战后几十年里,反军国主义运动在两国得势,促进了和平、外交、自由贸易和文化交流的理想。
But that sentiment has waned in recent years, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and China’s increasingly assertive military and economic policies under its leader, Xi Jinping.
但这种情绪在最近几年已经淡化,尤其是自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以及中国在其领导人习近平的带领下推行日益强硬的军事和经济政策以来。
President Trump’s threats to abandon security commitments in Europe and his eagerness to strike a trade deal with Mr. Xi accelerated both countries’ pushes toward rearmament.
特朗普威胁要放弃在欧洲的安全承诺,还急于与习近平达成贸易协议,这些都加速了两国迈向重整军备的步伐。
日本陆上自卫队成员本月在御殿场参加一场军事演习。
Thomas Berger, a professor at Boston University who has studied the postwar history of Japan and Germany, said that the two countries were responsible for “perhaps the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century,” a reference to World War II, and that their defeats had “shattered their ideals and beliefs in empire and militarization.”
波士顿大学研究战后日本和德国历史的教授托马斯·贝格尔表示,这两个国家对“也许是20世纪最大的灾难”——指第二次世界大战——负有责任,并且它们的战败“粉碎了它们对帝国和军事化的理想与信念”。
But the recent change in the global security landscape, particularly Mr. Trump’s volatility, has fueled anxiety and urgency for the countries’ relatively new leaders, both of them conservative and defense-minded. “There is this justifiable fear that the United States might sell them out,” Mr. Berger said.
但近期全球安全格局的变化——特别是特朗普的反复无常——加剧了两国上任不久的领导人的焦虑感与紧迫感,这两位领导人都是保守派且具有防务意识。“存在着这种合理的恐惧,即美国可能会出卖它们,”贝格尔说。
Shortly before taking office a year ago, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, led a successful effort to suspend limits on Germany’s government borrowing in order to drastically increase military spending. In a few years, Germany’s military spending could be larger than that of France and Britain — combined.
一年前,不久后将就任德国总理的弗里德里希·默茨领导了一项成功的行动,暂停了对德国政府借贷的限制,以便大幅增加军事支出。在几年内,德国的军事支出可能会超过法国和英国的总和。
Japan commits half as much as Germany, but it is still one of the world’s top spenders on defense, with a budget this year of about $58 billion.
日本投入的资金只有德国的一半,但仍然是全球国防支出最高的国家之一,今年的预算大约为580亿美元。
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a conservative lawmaker, won office last year with nationalist calls to revive the military. She has deployed long-range missiles — capable of reaching China — in southern Japan, and has reversed postwar bans on arms exports.
作为保守派议员的高市早苗去年凭借复兴军队的民族主义呼声赢得了首相职位。她已经在日本南部部署了能够打击到中国的远程导弹,并且推翻了战后对武器出口的禁令。
Both Mr. Merz and Ms. Takaichi have made a point of trying to maintain warm ties with Mr. Trump, but both have also looked beyond Washington, increasingly, for military alliances.
默茨和高市都明确表示要努力与特朗普保持温和的关系,但两人也都越来越多地将目光投向华盛顿之外,以寻求军事联盟。
Japan recently sealed a $6.5 billion deal to supply warships to Australia, and it is in talks with the Philippines and Indonesia about exporting warships. Germany has forged close ties with Ukraine in developing and deploying new weapons and has asked France to help provide it with a nuclear deterrent.
日本近期签署了一项价值65亿美元的协议,以向澳大利亚供应军舰,并且正在与菲律宾和印度尼西亚就出口军舰进行谈判。德国在开发和部署新武器方面已与乌克兰建立了紧密联系,并且已经请求法国协助,提供核威慑力。
China and Russia have accused Ms. Takaichi of seeking to revive World War II-era militarism. But she has said her policies are necessary because Japan faces the “most severe and complex” security environment since that era, citing the threat of China and North Korea.
中国和俄罗斯指责高市试图复辟二战时期的军国主义。但她表示自己的政策是必要的,因为日本面临着自那段时期以来“最严峻且最复杂”的安全环境,并以中国和朝鲜的威胁作为依据。
“No single country can now protect its own peace and security alone,” she said recently. “There is absolutely no change in our commitment to upholding the path we have followed as a peace-loving nation for over 80 years.”
“现在没有任何一个国家能够单独保护自身的和平与安全,”她近期表示。“作为爱好和平的国家,我们对坚持80多年来所遵循道路的承诺绝对没有改变。”
去年11月,德国总理弗里德里希·默茨与日本首相高市早苗在约翰内斯堡举行的二十国集团峰会上。两位任职不久的领导人都有较强的防务危机意识。
The German public has embraced rearmament reluctantly, but faster than the Japanese have.
德国公众虽然对重整军备也存在反感,但接受起来仍比日本快。
Recent surveys suggest a majority of Germans see the world now as more dangerous than it was during the Cold War. They also suggest that two-thirds of the country backs higher spending on the military, even though the German armed forces, which do not enforce a draft, have struggled to persuade young people to enlist.
近期的调查表明,大多数德国人现在认为世界比冷战时期更加危险。调查还表明,该国有三分之二的人支持增加军事支出,尽管不实行征兵制的德国武装部队在说服年轻人参军方面一直面临困难。
In Tokyo this spring, tens of thousands of people protested Ms. Takaichi’s security policies, including the decision to export more weapons and to establish a national intelligence agency. The protesters were concerned that Ms. Takaichi might next seek to scrap Article 9 of the Constitution, which renounces war.
今年春天在东京,数万人抗议高市的安全政策,包括出口更多武器以及建立国家情报机构的决定。抗议者担心高市接下来可能会试图废除宪法第九条,即放弃战争的条款。
Nahoko Hishiyama, 37, who helped organize some protests, said Ms. Takaichi’s “policies are deeply concerning, as they aim to turn Japan into a military power.”
现年37岁的抗议活动组织者菱山南帆子表示,高市的“政策令人深感担忧,因为它们旨在将日本变成一个军事大国”。
Alexandra Sakaki, a scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin who studies Japan, said that rearmament would require further shifts in mind-set in Germany and Japan, especially if officials turn to policies like conscription.
位于柏林的德国国际与安全事务研究所日本研究学者亚历山德拉·萨卡基表示,重整军备将需要德国和日本在思维方式上做出进一步的转变,特别是如果官员们转向类似于征兵制这样的政策。
“They need to think about military and society in a whole different way,” she said. “Will they be ready for combat, will they be ready to fight? Japan and Germany need the public to back that vision.”
“他们需要以一种完全不同的方式来思考军队与社会,”她表示。“他们准备好作战了吗?他们准备好战斗了吗?日本和德国需要公众来支持这一愿景。”
One country has applauded the German and Japanese shifts: the United States.
有一个国家对德国和日本的转变表示赞许:美国。
Mr. Trump has long pushed allies to spend more on their own defense so the U.S. military can focus elsewhere. Meeting last year with Mr. Merz, he welcomed Germany’s spending surge — though not without reservation. In a quip, Mr. Trump noted that a remilitarized Germany might not please the American leaders who defeated Nazi Germany in World War II.
特朗普长期以来一直推动盟国在其自身的防务上增加支出,以便美军能够集中精力于其他地方。去年与默茨会面时,他对德国支出的飙升表示欢迎——尽管并非毫无保留。特朗普打趣说,第二次世界大战中击败纳粹德国的美国领导人们如果看到一个重新军事化的德国,可能会不太高兴。
“I’m not sure that General MacArthur would have said it was positive, you know?” he said.
“我不确定麦克阿瑟将军会说这是好事,是吧?”他说道。