The world is quickly depleting its stores of oil, putting more pressure on President Trump to reach a deal with Iran that would quickly get more fuel flowing out of the Persian Gulf.

全球石油储备正在迅速耗尽，特朗普总统承受的压力与日俱增——他必须尽快与伊朗达成协议，以推动更多燃料从波斯湾流出。

Vast stockpiles of oil, gasoline and other fuels have helped fill the hole in global energy supplies created by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. But those reserves, which companies and governments stash in giant steel storage tanks and underground salt caverns, are running low in some places. This week, U.S. government stockpiles were poised to hit their lowest levels since 1983.

庞大的石油、汽油及其他燃料储备帮助填补了美以对伊战争造成的全球能源供应缺口。但这些储备——无论是企业和政府存放在巨型钢制储油罐中的库存，还是储存在地下盐穴中的战略储备——在一些地区正迅速减少。本周，美国政府的石油储备预计将降至1983年以来最低水平。

That ominous milestone was overshadowed by Mr. Trump’s announcement on Thursday that the United States and Iran were close to striking a peace deal. His statements sent international oil prices below $90 a barrel, well above prewar prices but nowhere near the highs hit earlier in the war.

然而，这一令人不安的里程碑被特朗普上周四宣布美伊接近达成和平协议的消息所掩盖。他的表态推动国际油价跌破每桶90美元——虽然这一价格仍高于战前水平，但已远不及战争初期的高点。

Still, it is far from clear what a truce might entail. Unless the supply of oil and fuels improves — and quickly — consumers around the world may face much higher energy costs.

尽管如此，停战协议究竟会包含哪些内容仍远不明确。除非石油和燃料供应状况得到改善，而且必须尽快改善，否则全球消费者可能面临大幅上涨的能源成本。

There is little consensus about when or where this may come to a head, but energy experts broadly agree that until more oil is able to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway on Iran’s southern coast, the market will remain worrisomely fragile.

对于危机何时以及在哪里达到临界点发，目前并没有明确共识。但能源专家普遍认为，在更多石油能够重新通过伊朗南部海岸狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡之前，全球能源市场都将保持令人担忧的脆弱状态。

“Soon enough, we’ll run out of shock absorbers,” said Antoine Halff, a co-founder of the research firm Kayrros and a former chief oil analyst at the International Energy Agency.

研究机构Kayrros联合创始人、国际能源署前首席石油分析师安托万·哈尔夫表示：“很快，我们就会耗尽所有的缓冲机制。”

注：波斯湾国家包括巴林、伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。石油库存数据包括商业储存和战略储备。来源：Kpler。

The world uses around 100 million barrels of oil every day. Reserves have dwindled especially quickly in places that depend heavily on imports, such as Japan and South Korea. The United States, the world’s biggest oil producer, is also draining its tanks as companies ramp up exports to supply the rest of the world.

全球每天消耗约1亿桶石油。在严重依赖进口的地方，如日本和韩国，储备消耗得尤其迅速。美国虽然是全球最大石油生产国，但随着企业增加出口以供应世界其他地区，国内库存也在不断消耗。

Persian Gulf countries, on the other hand, have been stockpiling, and not by choice. The closure of the strait has meant that most of them can sell much less oil than normal, and so are stuck holding much more fuel. Some have managed to get more vessels through the strait in recent weeks, providing some relief.

另一方面，波斯湾国家却一直在囤积石油，但这并非出于主动选择。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁导致这些国家的石油出口量大幅低于正常水平，由此被迫囤积了大量燃料。不过，最近几周，一些国家已设法让更多油轮通过该海峡，局面获得了一定缓解。

And then there is China. The country has what is widely believed to be the world’s largest cache of oil — roughly a third of all known reserves, according to the research firm Kpler — and appears to have barely touched it. It is possible, Mr. Halff said, that China is tapping underground reserves that are harder to monitor.

还有中国。外界普遍认为中国拥有全球最大的石油储备——根据研究公司Kpler的数据，约占全球已知储备的三分之一——而且似乎几乎没有动用过。哈尔夫表示，中国可能正在动用更难被外界监测到的地下储备。

“China is one of the biggest question marks, the biggest puzzles,” Mr. Halff said.

“中国是最大的未知数，最大的谜团，”哈尔夫说。

来源：标普全球能源。

The picture becomes more troubling when looking at inventories of specific fuels. Stores of gasoline and fuel oil, used for heating, are especially low around the world, particularly for this time of year.

当查看特定燃料的库存时，情况变得更加令人担忧。全球范围内，汽油和用于取暖的燃料油的储备尤其偏低，尤其考虑到当前本应是库存较高的季节。

Still, the world is not yet facing widespread shortages.

不过，目前全球尚未面临大范围的短缺。

“We have less oil in the world, and it is starting in the corners here to show up in end-use markets,” said Rick Joswick, an oil analyst for S&P Global Energy. “But there’s no smoking gun I can point at and say, ‘Aha, these airports are not getting their jet fuel, or these consumers can’t get their gasoline.’”

标普全球能源的石油分析师里克·乔斯维克表示：“全球石油库存确实变少了，而且这种影响已经开始在一些终端市场显现出来。但我还找不到一个明确案例，可以指着某个地方说：‘看，这些机场已经没有航空燃油了，或者这些消费者已经买不到汽油了。’”

来源：美国能源信息署。

In places like the United States, prices at the pump would probably climb long before fuel tanks were depleted, analysts said. Coastal regions like the Northeast and California, which depend on a lot of imported oil and gasoline, are especially vulnerable to price increases.

分析人士表示，在美国这样的国家，加油站油价很可能会在燃料真正耗尽之前大幅上涨。美国东北部和加利福尼亚等沿海地区尤其容易受到冲击，因为这些地区高度依赖进口石油和汽油。

Yet it is very hard to predict when or where fuel supplies might fall low enough for that to happen.

然而，很难预测燃料供应何时或何地会低到足以引发这种情况。

“There are various choke points, and it’s really hard to model which might come first,” said Daniel Sternoff, a senior fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.

“存在多个潜在瓶颈，哪个会最先出问题，真的很难建模分析，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心高级研究员丹尼尔·斯特诺夫说。

To understand why, just look at jet fuel. Early in the war, many analysts and executives worried that some airports in Europe, which buys a lot of jet fuel from the Persian Gulf, might not have enough for planes to take off. Refining companies, which turn oil into fuels, responded to high prices by ramping up jet fuel production while making less gasoline.

要理解这一点，只需看看航空燃油即可。战争初期，许多分析师和企业高管曾担心欧洲部分机场可能面临航空燃油不足的问题，因为欧洲大量依赖来自波斯湾地区的航空燃油供应。对此，炼油企业看到高油价带来的利润空间，大幅提高航空燃油产量，同时减少汽油生产。

注：最低运营库存是标普全球能源对维持能源系统正常运转所需原油量的估算。来源：美国能源信息署、标普全球能源。

U.S. oil reserves are held by businesses or the government. The government supplies, known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or S.P.R., are essentially a last line of defense, available in case of emergencies.

美国的石油储备分为企业库存和政府库存两部分。政府储备被称为战略石油储备，本质上是最后一道防线，用于在紧急情况下向市场提供支持。

The United States is partway through a 172-million-barrel withdrawal, one of its largest ever. That will leave the reserve, a collection of salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, emptier than it has been in almost a half century, soon after the 1970s oil crises, when it was being filled for the first time.

美国目前正在实施1.72亿桶石油的战略储备释放计划，这是其有史以来规模最大的释放行动之一。完成后，这个位于得克萨斯州和路易斯安那州的地下盐穴储备系统将降至近半个世纪以来最低水平，相当于20世纪70年代石油危机后刚开始建立储备时的情形。

来源：美国能源信息署。

There is still plenty of company-owned oil available in the United States and elsewhere. But the depletion of the S.P.R. will leave the federal government with less flexibility to support the market if the United States and Iran fail to complete a deal or shipping remains constrained.

目前，美国以及其他国家的企业库存仍然相当充足。但战略石油储备的大幅下降意味着，如果美国与伊朗最终未能达成协议，或者海运运输继续受限，美国联邦政府未来干预市场、稳定能源供应的灵活性将明显降低。