The world’s largest soccer stadium, designed to resemble a Vietnamese drum with space for 135,000 fans, began to take shape outside central Hanoi in February, a few weeks before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

今年2月，美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击前几周，一座位于河内市中心外围、设计灵感源自越南传统鼓、可容纳13.5万名观众的世界最大足球场开始初具规模。

Despite the global economic turmoil brought about by the war, and perhaps even because of it, construction on the arena and a surrounding urban development has expanded and accelerated.

尽管战争引发了全球经济动荡——甚至或可能正因为如此，这座球场及其周边城市综合开发项目的建设不仅没有放缓，反而进一步扩张并加速推进。

The Vietnamese government is leaning on big projects to make up for potential economic slowdowns caused by the war and President Trump’s tariffs. Huge, state-favored firms like Vingroup, which is building the stadium, are booming. So are foreign manufacturing giants that have made Vietnam an export hub, all while smaller businesses are struggling to survive and often being pushed aside.

越南政府正依托大型项目的建设来抵消战争和特朗普关税可能造成的经济放缓。像开发该体育场的Vingroup集团这样受国家青睐的大型企业正在蓬勃发展。那些把越南打造为出口制造中心的外国制造业巨头同样蒸蒸日上，而与此同时，规模较小的企业却在艰难求生，甚至常常遭到边缘化。

“For small companies like us, it’s so challenging, it’s harder, and it’s not fair,” said Pham Thi Mui, 36, as she stuffed a Spider-Man comforter into a bag at her family’s bedding factory near the stadium, on land that is soon to be redeveloped. “We pour our hearts into everything, and we’re the first to suffer.”

“像我们这样的小公司，处境太难了，越来越难，也根本不公平。”36岁的范氏梅（音）一边把一条蜘蛛侠图案的被子塞进袋子，一边说道。她家的床上用品工厂就位于体育场附近，而那片土地很快就将被重新开发。“我们付出了全部心血，可最先受苦的却总是我们。”

The dynamic exemplifies how the war in Iran, and the economic shock waves it precipitated, are accelerating a trend in Vietnam, and around the world: Big businesses find a way to get bigger, while smaller, local companies are being squeezed by spiking inflation or energy shortages. The Vietnamese government and banks, overinvested in certain industries, especially real estate, have not been much help.

这一现象折射出伊朗战争及其引发的经济冲击波正在如何加速越南乃至全球范围内的一种趋势：大企业找到办法扩张，小型本土企业则被飙升的通胀或能源短缺挤压。越南政府和银行在房地产等特定行业过度投入，对困境中的小企业基本上袖手旁观。

Too Big to Fail?

大到不能倒？

Experts have expressed both optimism and concern for this ambitious country of 100 million. The World Bank’s most recent report on Vietnam referred to an “uneven growth model,” where global firms drive exports but generate limited local benefits, because wages are low and few Vietnamese companies are integrated into higher-value supply chains.

专家们对这个有1亿人口、雄心勃勃的国家既抱有期待，也深感担忧。世界银行最近关于越南的报告提到一种“不均衡的增长模式”：全球性企业推动了出口，但给经济带来的益处十分有限，这是因为越南工资水平低，而且鲜有本土企业融入更高附加值的供应链。

Jonathan Pincus, an economist at Fulbright University in Ho Chi Minh City, described it as “a two-track economy.” Essentially, the wealthiest firms rarely interact with the smaller businesses that represent 95 percent of the country’s companies.

胡志明市富布赖特大学的经济学家乔纳森·平卡斯将其描述为“双轨经济”。本质上，那些最富有的企业几乎不与中小企业发生往来，而后者占越南全部企业数量的95%。

Vietnamese officials have acknowledged the problem for years, noting that sustainable development requires a strong domestic business base. But with Communist Party leaders pushing hard for 10 percent annual growth, and managing only 7 so far this year, officials still chase scale. Big-ticket foreign investment is seen as an elevator to career promotion in the party, and the turmoil of the past few months has only intensified the government’s go-big and globalist focus.

多年来，越南官员并不否认这个问题的存在，指出可持续发展需要强大的本土企业基础。但由于越共领导层大力推动实现10%的年增长目标，而今年迄今仅达到7%，官员们仍在追求规模效应。吸引大型外国投资被视为党内仕途晋升的捷径，而过去几个月的动荡进一步强化了政府追求大项目、拥抱全球化的倾向。

While Hanoi remains concerned that Washington will punish it for exporting far more to the United States than it buys, Vietnam continues to successfully recruit companies fleeing China partly to avoid and circumvent U.S. tariffs.

尽管河内仍担心华盛顿会因为越南对美出口远超进口而采取惩罚措施，但越南依旧成功吸引着大量为部分躲避和规避美国关税而离开中国的企业。

体育场工地附近的稻田。类似铜鼓体育场这样的开发项目正在挤占中小企业的生存空间。

Shipping data shows that in the first quarter of this year, China’s container traffic to the United States fell by 14 percent, while Vietnam’s rose by 19 percent. Some of those shipments might be Chinese exports, relabeled or barely altered — which the Trump administration has threatened to treat as an illegal effort to bypass tariffs — but experts report a deeper shift, with Chinese firms opening more factories in Vietnam.

航运数据显示，今年第一季度，中国发往美国的集装箱货运量下降了14%，越南则增长了19%。其中一些货物可能是换个标签或仅做轻微加工的中国出口产品——特朗普政府已威胁要将这种行为视为非法规避关税的做法——但专家们指出，更深层的变化在于，越来越多中国企业在越南设厂。

“The main takeaway is that Vietnam is gaining market share,” said Soren Pedersen, a vice president at SSA Marine, a large global port operator.

大型全球港口运营商SSA Marine副总裁索伦·彼得森表示：“最重要的结论是，越南正在扩大自己的市场份额。”

‘No One Listens to Us’

“没有人听我们的”

The smallest companies are facing the toughest math.

最小的企业正面临最残酷的现实。

From Ms. Mui’s bedding factory, you can see cranes hovering over former farmland. She said the cost of materials and transportation, as well as fees for the use of e-commerce platforms, have risen since the war in Iran started. To keep up, she said her company recently doubled the price of budget comforters.

从范氏梅的床品工厂望出去，可以看到吊车悬停在昔日的农田上方。她说，自伊朗战争爆发以来，原材料、运输成本以及电商平台使用费都在上涨。为了保本，公司最近不得不把低价被子的售价提高了一倍。

With the government forcing the factory out to make room for the stadium and a mixed-use urban district, she and her family are desperate for a business loan or government grant. They said they already invested nearly $40,000 of their own money in the business, and used up all their collateral for loans for an expansion last year, before the stadium was announced.

政府强制要求工厂迁出，为体育场和一个综合用途城区项目腾出空间。她和家人如今迫切需要商业贷款或政府补助。他们说已经向企业投入了近4万美元自有资金，而且去年在体育场项目宣布之前，他们为扩张业务耗尽了所有可用于抵押贷款的资产。

“We’re small, we’re supposed to get more support,” Ms. Mui said, noting that the government has promised to do more for domestic enterprises. “In fact, we’re facing harsher treatment with everything while bigger companies get access to loans and tax incentives.”

“我们是小企业，本来应该得到更多支持，”范氏梅说，并指出政府一直承诺会加大对本土企业的扶持。“但现实是，我们在各方面都面临更严苛的对待，大企业却能轻松获得贷款和税收优惠。”

Her mother-in-law, taking a break from packaging blankets, fought back tears. “We’re at the lowest level,” she said. “No one listens to us.”

她的婆婆在打包毯子的间隙，强忍住眼泪说：“我们处在最底层，根本没人听我们的。”

Economists generally agree that Vietnam is, like many countries, too quick to serve well-connected behemoths. It welcomes factories from foreign investors, which provide jobs, if little opportunity for homegrown innovation, and supports large state-run or state-favored conglomerates with low productivity and large debt loads.

经济学家普遍认为，和许多国家一样，越南过于急切地为那些关系深厚的商业巨头提供便利。它欢迎外国投资者建厂，这些工厂虽然提供了就业，却很少带来本土创新机会；与此同时，政府又扶持那些生产率低下、债务负担沉重的大型国有企业或受国家青睐的企业集团。

Critics often point to Vingroup. The stadium and accompanying urban development are projected to cost $35 billion, to be financed with government and private debt. And even as Vingroup’s electric-vehicle subsidiary, VinFast, reported a net loss of $3.9 billion last year, the company remains the builder of choice for an increasingly wide range of projects, including the country’s first bullet-train network.

批评者频频将矛头指向Vingroup集团。体育场及配套城区开发项目预计耗资350亿美元，将由政府和私人债务融资。即使它的电动车子公司VinFast去年净亏损39亿美元的情况下，该集团仍是越来越多项目的首选承建方，包括越南的首个高铁网。

范氏梅的两名亲属在工厂附近的家中分拣待运的产品。

In response to emailed questions, Vingroup said the stadium development “not only serves the needs of local residents but also enhances Vietnam’s national sports infrastructure, supports economic and tourism development, and strengthens Hanoi’s position as a destination for international events.”

Vingroup集团通过电邮回应称，这个体育场开发项目“不仅服务于当地居民的需求，还提升了越南的国家体育基础设施，助力经济与旅游业发展，并增强了河内作为国际赛事目的地的吸引力”。

The company denied receiving any special treatment from the government and insisted that its debt levels remain manageable.

该公司否认从政府获得任何特殊待遇，并坚称其债务水平仍在可控范围内。

Still, there is much about the company’s balance sheet that concerns experts. And Vingroup’s dominance is indicative of deeply entrenched problems in Vietnam’s economy.

尽管如此，专家们对该公司的财务状况颇感担忧。Vingroup集团的主导地位正是越南经济积弊深重的一个缩影。

A few miles from the Vingroup stadium, Techcom Industry makes heavy-duty vacuums and other products for companies like DeWalt, a subsidiary of Stanley Black & Decker.

距体育场数公里外，Techcom Industry正在为史丹利百得旗下子公司得伟等客户生产重型吸尘器及其他产品。

Tran Thi Thuy, 40, the company’s founder and chief executive, has built exactly what Vietnamese officials have said they want — sophisticated, domestic manufacturing, plugged into global supply chains. With 100 employees, the business is hardly tiny, but it is still being buffeted by geopolitics and Vietnam’s indifference to anything but the largest of the large.

40岁的陈氏翠是这家公司的创始人兼首席执行官，她打造的正是越南官员口中希望看到的企业：先进的本土制造业企业，并成功融入全球供应链。公司有100名员工，规模不算小，但它依然受到地缘政治和越南只重视顾扶持最大企业的漠然态度所冲击。

Orders are down 40 percent this year, Ms. Thuy said, blaming tariff uncertainty and weak demand in the United States. Because of the war in Iran, she added, transportation, energy and plastics costs are up.

陈氏翠说，今年订单下滑了40%，她将此归因于关税不确定性和美国需求疲软。她还补充说，由于伊朗战争，运输、能源和塑料成本都在上涨。

体育场建设项目招聘2万名工人的广告牌。

She’s still anticipating future growth, but has struggled to line up financing. Vietnamese banks wanted too much collateral for short-term loans with double-digit interest rates, she said. Her attempts to secure credit from government funds for smaller businesses also ended up mired in confusion.

她对未来增长仍抱有期望，但融资问题始终困扰着她。她说，越南银行对于抵押物的要求过高，而贷款利率高达两位数，且多为短期贷款。她尝试申请政府面向中小企业的信贷基金，结果到处碰壁。

“There’s lack of access to information,” she said. “The funds normally are managed by banks, so they keep information away from us — because they want to only give out commercial loans for their own interests.”

“信息获取渠道不畅，”她说。“这些基金通常由银行管理，所以银行把信息保密不让我们知道——因为他们只想为自己的利益发放商业贷款。”

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance recently promised to help, possibly by guiding banks to grant loans based on business performance (as is common in other countries).

越南财政部最近承诺提供帮助，可能通过引导银行根据企业经营业绩发放贷款（这在其他国家是常见的做法）。

And yet, large foreign companies are still driving the biggest news. Samsung recently said it plans to invest about $1.5 billion in a semiconductor testing facility north of Hanoi. Its first in Vietnam, the site is set to open in 2027.

然而，占据头条新闻的依旧是大型外国企业。三星电子最近表示，计划在河内北部投资约15亿美元建设一座半导体测试工厂。这将是它在越南的首个此类设施，预计于2027年投入运营。