Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips.

多年来，联邦政府一直试图让硅谷摆脱对台湾的依赖。这个面积与马里兰州大致相当的民主岛屿制造了全球90%的高端计算机芯片。

In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the officials said, could choke the supply of computer chips made on the island and bring the U.S. tech industry to its knees.

在华盛顿和硅谷举行的多次秘密简报会上，国家安全官员警告苹果、AMD、高通等公司的高管，中国正计划收复台湾——北京长期以来一直视台湾为其分离出去的领土。官员们表示，中国对台湾的封锁可能会切断该岛制造的计算机芯片供应，从而使美国科技业陷入困境。

Two presidents have tried persuading the industry to change. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. offered financial grants worth billions to improve the domestic production of chips. After that didn’t work, President Trump threatened billions in tariffs to essentially accomplish the same thing.

两任总统试图说服该行业做出改变。拜登总统提供数十亿美元的财政补贴，以提升美国国内的芯片生产能力。在这一努力未能奏效之后，特朗普总统又威胁征收数十亿美元的关税，实质上也是为了实现同样的目标。

But warnings, gifts and threats have made little difference. The U.S. tech industry has stubbornly refused to shift where it gets most of its chips, which power things like smartphones, laptops and the giant data centers that run artificial intelligence.

但警告、补贴还是威胁都收效甚微。美国科技行业依然固执地拒绝改变其大部分芯片的来源地，这些芯片是驱动智能手机、笔记本电脑以及运行人工智能的大型数据中心等设备的关键部件。

Now, there is increasing concern that inaction by some of Silicon Valley’s most important companies risks destabilizing the global economy. Those worries, drawn into focus by recent live-fire drills conducted by the Chinese military in waters surrounding Taiwan, have prompted dire warnings from White House officials.

如今，人们越来越担心，硅谷一些最重要公司的无所作为可能会破坏全球经济的稳定。中国军队近期在台湾周边海域进行的实弹演习更加凸显出这些担忧，并促使白宫官员发出了严厉警告。

“The single biggest threat to the world economy, the single biggest point of single failure, is that 97 percent of the high-end chips are made in Taiwan,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, slightly overstating industry estimates. “If that island were blockaded, that capacity were destroyed, it would be an economic apocalypse.”

美国财长斯科特·贝森特上个月在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上表示：“对世界经济最大的单一威胁、最大的单点失效风险在于，97%的高端芯片是在台湾生产的。”他的这一说法略高于行业估计。“如果这个岛屿遭到封锁，生产能力被摧毁，那将是一场经济末日。”

经过数十年的投资，台湾成为了世界半导体产业的中心。

If Taiwan is lost, the tech industry won’t be able to say it wasn’t warned. A New York Times investigation found that executives were so focused on winning in their hypercompetitive markets and maintaining big profit margins that facing up to the Taiwan problem was an afterthought. And now it will be years before the steps some companies are finally taking make a difference.

如果台湾失守，科技行业并不能说自己没有得到过警告。《纽约时报》的一项调查发现，高管们过于专注于在高度竞争的市场中取胜并维持高利润率，以至于将正视台湾问题置于次要位置。如今一些公司终于开始采取行动，但这些措施要见到成效还需数年时间。

A confidential report commissioned in 2022 by the Semiconductor Industry Association for its members, which include the largest U.S. chip companies, said cutting the supply of chips from Taiwan would lead to the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. economic output would plunge 11 percent, twice as much as the 2008 recession. The collapse would be even more severe for China, which would experience a 16 percent decline.

2022年，半导体工业协会受委托为其成员（包括美国最大的芯片公司）撰写的一份机密报告称，如果来自台湾的芯片供应被切断，将引发自大萧条以来最严重的经济危机。美国经济产出将暴跌11%，相当于2008年金融危机跌幅的两倍。对中国来说，冲击将更加严重，经济将萎缩16%。

Many of the biggest U.S. tech companies would have enough semiconductors to operate for several months before their businesses broke down, according to the report, which was reviewed by The Times and has not been previously reported.

根据报告，在业务中断之前，许多美国大型科技公司的半导体库存仅够维持数月运营。《纽约时报》获得了这份此前未见相关报道的报告。 

The report, which was written at the encouragement of Biden administration officials, illustrated how Washington has been forced to reconsider its position on Taiwan. For decades, America’s commitment to the island was based on geopolitics, respect for democracy and containing China. It was viewed as a lopsided arrangement that was good for Taiwan and risky for the United States.

报告是在拜登政府官员的鼓励下撰写的，它表明了华盛顿如何被迫重新考虑对台湾问题的立场。几十年来，美国对该岛的承诺是基于地缘政治、对民主制度的尊重以及遏制中国的需要。这被视为一种不对称的安排，对台湾有利，对美国则充满风险。

But now, more than ever, it has become clear that Taiwan is critical to America’s economic survival, especially as artificial intelligence — which is built using chips made in Taiwan — drives the U.S. stock market and fuels economic growth.

但如今，比以往任何时候都更加明显的是，台湾对美国的经济生存至关重要，尤其是在人工智能推动美国股市上涨并带动经济增长的背景下，人工智能离不开台湾制造的芯片。

The Trump administration has been cleareyed about the risk. While some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs have appeared to be driven by impulse or retribution, he has persistently used the threat of tariffs on semiconductors to bully tech companies to buy more of their chips from U.S. factories.

特朗普政府对这一风险有着清醒的认识。虽然特朗普的一些关税举措看似出于冲动或报复，但他一直持续利用对半导体征收关税的威胁来逼迫科技公司从美国本土工厂采购更多芯片。

That arm-twisting recently led Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, to commit to buying chips from new plants in Arizona being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, a Taiwanese company that is the world’s dominant chip manufacturer.

这种施压最近促使全球市值最高的公司英伟达承诺，从台积电在亚利桑那州新建的工厂采购芯片。台积电是一家台湾公司，也是全球占主导地位的芯片制造商。

台积电正在扩建其位于菲尼克斯的制造工厂。

It was a step toward solving an intractable problem: New plants won’t be built in the United States unless companies agree to buy the chips produced in them, which would be more expensive and cut into profits. It has been a Catch-22 that federal intervention has struggled to solve.

这是朝着解决一个棘手难题迈出的一步：如果没有企业承诺购买在本土生产的芯片，美国就不会建设新的工厂；但购买本土芯片成本更高，会削减企业利润。这形成了联邦政府一直难以破解的“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的困局。

“Reshoring manufacturing that’s critical to our national and economic security is a top priority for President Trump, and the Trump administration is implementing a nuanced and multifaceted policy approach to deliver,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman.

白宫发言人库什·德赛表示：“将对国家安全和经济安全至关重要的制造业迁回美国，是特朗普总统的首要任务之一，特朗普政府正在实施一套细致入微、多管齐下的政策方法来实现这一目标。”

Other new commitments to U.S. chip making are trickling in. The United States is on track to spend $200 billion on semiconductor plants through 2030, enough to increase chip production capacity 50 percent, according to SEMI, a global chip industry association.

其他对美国芯片制造业的新投资承诺也正在陆续出现。根据全球芯片行业协会SEMI的数据，到2030年，美国将在半导体工厂上投入2000亿美元，足以将芯片产能提升50%。

But with Taiwan, China and other countries also pouring billions into semiconductor plants, the United States would still account for only 10 percent of the world’s semiconductor production in 2030 — much as it did in 2020 when the government stepped up its calls for change.

但随着台湾、中国和其他国家也在向半导体工厂投入巨资，到2030年，美国在全球半导体产量中的占比仍将只有约10%，这与2020年政府开始大力呼吁改变时的占比基本持平。

“The whole industry has to say, ‘We’re all going to do this,’” said Bill Wiseman, global co-leader of the semiconductor practice at McKinsey, the consulting firm. Instead, he said, executives think, “If we’re screwed, everyone else is screwed,’ so they don’t take action.”

“整个行业必须一致认为，‘我们都要这样做，’”咨询公司麦肯锡半导体业务全球联合负责人比尔·怀斯曼表示。但他指出，企业高管往往认为，“‘如果我们完蛋了，其他人也都会完蛋’，所以他们不会采取行动。”

The Countdown Begins

倒计时开始

In March 2021, Adm. Philip S. Davidson delivered a warning to the Senate Armed Services Committee about geopolitical conflict over Taiwan.

2021年3月，海军上将菲利普·戴维森就台湾问题可能引发的地缘政治冲突向参议院军事委员会发出警告。

“The threat is manifest during this decade,” said Admiral Davidson, who was the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, which is responsible for the Asia-Pacific region. “In fact, in the next six years.”

“这种威胁在这个十年内就会显现，”戴维森表示，他当时是负责亚太地区事务的美国印太司令部司令。“实际上，就在未来六年内。”

It was the first time a senior U.S. military official had told Congress that the armed services believed President Xi Jinping of China wanted his army to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027, though many defense planners are skeptical such a move could happen that quickly.

这是美国军方高层首次向国会表示，军方认为中国国家主席习近平希望解放军在2027年前具备攻占台湾的能力，不过许多国防规划人员对这一行动是否会如此快地实现仍持怀疑态度。

Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, ranked the U.S. reliance on Taiwan for semiconductors as one of America’s greatest vulnerabilities. He wanted the industry to recognize the risk and support construction of U.S. manufacturing plants. Mr. Biden also wanted to provide $50 billion in government subsidies to build semiconductor plants domestically.

拜登的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文将美国在半导体方面对台湾的依赖列为美国最大的弱点之一。他希望业界能够认识到这一风险，并支持在美国本土建厂。拜登还希望提供500亿美元的政府补贴，用于在美国国内建设半导体工厂。

“We were saying: ‘This is crazy. We have to do something about it,’” Mr. Sullivan said in an interview.

“我们当时在说：‘这太疯狂了。我们必须采取行动，’”沙利文在接受采访时表示。

Change required uprooting a deeply entrenched business. Taiwan spent 50 years turning itself into the world’s semiconductor factory and becoming a leader in semiconductor research and development. It became a manufacturing hub for the chips in every iPhone and a third of the basic chips that power cars, tractors, cellphone towers and pacemakers.

要改变现状，就意味着要动摇一个根深蒂固的产业格局。台湾用了50年的时间把自己打造成为世界半导体工厂，并成为半导体研发领域的领导者。它已成为每一部iPhone所用芯片的制造中心，同时还生产了全球约三分之一用于汽车、拖拉机、通信基站和心脏起搏器等设备的基础芯片。

There were clear business reasons for the industry’s hesitation to shift from Taiwan. Chips made in the United States were more than 25 percent more expensive, industry executives said, because of higher material, labor and permitting costs. TSMC was widely considered better at building cutting-edge chips than American companies like Intel. And U.S. businesses were more focused on quarterly profits than geopolitical threats.

业界摆脱对台依赖的犹豫不决有其明确的商业原因。行业高管表示，由于材料、劳动力及审批成本更高，美国制造的芯片价格要高出25%以上。人们普遍认为，台积电在制造尖端芯片方面比英特尔等美国公司更胜一筹。而且，美国企业更关注财季利润，而非地缘政治威胁。

对台湾的封锁可能会切断台积电在该岛生产的电脑芯片的供应。

In the fall of 2021, the White House summoned top semiconductor executives to Washington for a classified briefing on Taiwan, said seven people familiar with the gathering.

据七名知情人士透露，2021年秋天，白宫召集主要半导体企业高管前往华盛顿，参加一场关于台湾问题的机密简报会。

Pat Gelsinger of Intel and other chief executives filed into a White House briefing room and listened as officials warned that a blockade or invasion could halt chip manufacturing.

英特尔的帕特·基辛格和其他首席执行官走进白宫的简报室，听取官员们警告：一旦发生封锁或入侵，芯片制造可能会陷入停顿。

The executives were skeptical. Media outlets had previously reported much of the information the government shared. They also questioned why Mr. Xi would take Taiwan, since it would damage China’s economy.

这些高管对此持怀疑态度。政府所提供的大部分信息此前已被媒体广泛报道。他们还质疑习近平为何要攻占台湾，因为这样做会损害中国的经济。

By February 2022, that argument had been undermined by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. During a White House call with executives about new rules limiting chip sales to Russia, Mr. Sullivan said Russia’s action showed countries would seize territory even if it harmed their economy.

到了2022年2月，这种观点被俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的行动削弱了。在白宫与企业高管讨论限制向俄罗斯出售芯片新规的一次电话会议中，沙利文表示，俄罗斯的行动表明，一些国家即使明知会损害本国经济，也仍然可能采取领土扩张行动。

“If you had doubts about autocrats taking on water for adventures, you may want to reconsider,” he said. He encouraged the industry to study its Taiwan risk.

“你真以为独裁者会因为担心受损失而不敢冒险吗，醒醒吧，”他说。他鼓励业界对面临的台湾风险做出评估。

After the call, the Semiconductor Industry Association hired McKinsey to take a look. They started with a basic question: What would happen if companies couldn’t get chips from the island?

那次电话会议后，美国半导体行业协会聘请麦肯锡进行调查。他们从一个基本问题开始：如果公司无法从该岛获得芯片，会怎么样？

A summary of the resulting report opened with a map of Taiwan detailing how integral the island is to the global economy. Taiwan enabled roughly $10 trillion of the world’s gross domestic product. It made chips for iPhones and more than half of so-called memory chips for cars, and it led in assembling A.I. chips.

最终报告的摘要以一张详尽的台湾地图开头，阐述了该岛对全球经济是多么不可或缺。台湾支撑着全球约10万亿美元的国内生产总值。它生产iPhone芯片，制造了超过一半的汽车存储芯片，并在人工智能芯片封装方面处于领先地位。

The island’s semiconductor manufacturing is mainly in Hsinchu, an area where Taiwan’s government discouraged manufacturing after World War II because it is next to the sloping beaches that are the best place for an amphibious assault against the island.

该岛的半导体制造业主要集中在新竹。二战后，台湾当局曾不鼓励在该地区发展制造业，因为它紧邻坡度平缓的海滩，那是发动两栖登陆的最佳地点。

If Taiwan’s factories were knocked offline, the impact would be immediate, the roughly 20-page report said. Economies would flounder. In China, the gross national product would fall by $2.8 trillion; in the United States, the drop would be $2.5 trillion.

这份约20页的报告称，如果台湾工厂停产，影响将是立竿见影的。各国经济将陷入困境。中国的国民生产总值将下降2.8万亿美元；美国的降幅将达到2.5万亿美元。

Other reports, including one by Bloomberg Economics, a research service, estimate a conflict would cost the global economy more than $10 trillion.

其他报告，包括研究服务机构彭博经济研究的一份报告，估计台海冲突将使全球经济损失超过10万亿美元。

Build It and Hope They Will Come

筑巢引凤

In August 2022, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo beamed on the White House South Lawn as Mr. Biden signed into law the CHIPS Act. It gave Ms. Raimondo $50 billion in subsidies for semiconductor investments and factories.

2022年8月，当拜登在白宫南草坪签署《芯片法案》使其成为法律时，商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多喜笑颜开。该法案给了雷蒙多500亿美元的补贴，用于半导体投资和工厂建设。

2022年，拜登总统在白宫南草坪签署《2022芯片与科学法案》。

But Ms. Raimondo still needed to persuade chip manufacturers to build plants, and persuade tech companies to have their chips built in them.

但雷蒙多仍需要说服芯片制造商建厂，同时争取科技公司将芯片生产订单交给这些新工厂。

The first part was easy. TSMC committed more than $50 billion to building a second and third plant in Arizona, two years after announcing its first facility during Mr. Trump’s first term. Intel promised to expand in Arizona and invest as much as $100 billion in an Ohio campus. Samsung pledged $45 billion for two factories in Taylor, Texas.

第一部分相对容易。在特朗普第一任期内宣布建立第一座工厂两年后，台积电承诺投入500多亿美元在亚利桑那州建设第二和第三座工厂。英特尔承诺扩大在亚利桑那州的业务，并向俄亥俄州的一个园区投资高达1000亿美元。三星则承诺投入450亿美元在得克萨斯州泰勒市建设两座工厂。

Ms. Raimondo said the plants would give the United States the capacity to produce a fifth of the world’s advanced semiconductors by 2030. But she needed tech companies to pay for U.S. chips.

雷蒙多表示，这些工厂将使美国在2030年前有能力生产全球五分之一的先进半导体。但她需要科技公司为美国制造的芯片埋单。

TSMC had commitments from Apple, Nvidia and others to buy enough chips to justify building three factories in Arizona. But the company hadn’t secured enough orders to build its planned complex, which would include three additional plants, said three people familiar with the plans. Customers were reluctant buy chips that cost more than 25 percent more and were a generation behind those made in Taiwan, where the government has an unofficial rule requiring TSMC to put its most cutting-edge technology on the island first.

台积电得到了苹果、英伟达等公司的承诺，购买足以支撑其在亚利桑那州建设三座工厂的芯片。但三位知情人士表示，该公司尚未获得足够的订单来建设其计划中的建筑群（包括另外三座工厂）。客户不愿购买价格高出25%以上且技术比台湾产品落后一代的芯片——在台湾，当局有一项非正式规定，要求台积电必须将最尖端的技术首先留在岛内。

Intel and Samsung, despite their pledges to expand production, didn’t have any commitments. Their technology had fallen behind TSMC’s, and the industry doubted they could catch up.

英特尔和三星承诺扩大生产，但它们还没有得到任何订单承诺。它们的技术已经落后于台积电，业界怀疑它们能否追赶上来。

Ms. Raimondo and her staff struggled to persuade companies to buy chips from Intel or Samsung. Without those plants, the U.S. share of global chip production would drop short of the administration’s goal of as much as 20 percent of global capacity by 2030.

雷蒙多及其幕僚在说服公司从英特尔或三星购买芯片方面陷入苦战。如果没有这些工厂，美国在全球芯片生产中的份额将无法达到政府设定的2030年占比20%的目标。

Frustrated, Ms. Raimondo asked William J. Burns, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, to give a classified briefing with the latest intelligence about China and Taiwan, said five people familiar with the briefing, which has not been reported.

五位知情人士说，面对这些困难，雷蒙多请求中央情报局局长威廉·伯恩斯和国家情报总监埃夫丽尔·海恩斯就中国和台湾的最新情报进行了机密简报，此事此前未见报道。

In July 2023, three prominent chief executives, Tim Cook of Apple, Jensen Huang of Nvidia and Lisa Su of Advanced Micro Devices, entered a secure briefing room in Silicon Valley. Cristiano Amon, the chief executive of Qualcomm, joined by video. They listened as Mr. Burns and Ms. Haines said China’s military spending could mean a move on Taiwan in 2027.

2023年7月，三位显赫的首席执行官——苹果的蒂姆·库克、英伟达的黄仁勋和AMD的苏姿丰走进硅谷的一个安全简报室。高通首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·安蒙通过视频参加。他们听取了伯恩斯和海恩斯的简报，称中国的军事开支意味着其可能在2027年对台湾采取行动。

Afterward, Mr. Cook told officials that he slept “with one eye open.”

会后，库克告诉官员们，他现在睡觉都“睁着一只眼”。

But the companies still didn’t place significant new orders for U.S. chips, six people close to the industry said. Their lack of interest meant Intel and Samsung couldn’t fulfill their CHIPS Act contracts, which required them to have customers. The government reduced Intel’s and Samsung’s grants by a combined $2.3 billion.

但据六位熟悉该行业的人士称，这些公司仍然没有发出美国芯片大订单。由于缺乏兴趣，英特尔和三星无法履行《芯片法案》的合同，因为合同要求它们必须拥有客户。政府随后将英特尔和三星的拨款总额削减了23亿美元。

2022年，拜登在台积电位于菲尼克斯的工厂。台积电已获得苹果、英伟达等公司的承诺，将购买足够数量的芯片，以支撑其在亚利桑那州建造两座工厂的计划。

The setback came as Intel, the last U.S. manufacturer of leading-edge chips, grappled with falling sales and profits. In December 2024, Mr. Gelsinger, its chief executive, was forced out.

这一挫折发生时，作为美国最后一家领先芯片制造商的英特尔正面临销量和利润下滑的局面。2024年12月，首席执行官基辛格被迫辞职。

Worried about Intel’s future, Ms. Raimondo sent Intel and TSMC a letter before she left office saying the U.S. government would support their working together, which might help Intel survive, two people familiar with the letter said.

据两位知情人士透露，出于对英特尔未来的担忧，雷蒙多在离职前致信英特尔和台积电，表示美国政府将支持双方合作，这可能有助于英特尔生存。

Then she warned her successor, Howard Lutnick: Intel needed help.

随后她警告她的继任者霍华德·卢特尼克：英特尔需要帮助。

Too Reliant on Taiwan

过度依赖台湾

In Washington’s Foxhall neighborhood along the Potomac River, Mr. Lutnick, a former Wall Street bond broker, welcomed Mr. Trump’s decision to name him commerce secretary in November 2024 by buying a $25 million French-style estate.

在华盛顿波托马克河畔的福克斯霍尔社区，前华尔街债券经纪人卢特尼克买下了一座价值2500万美元的法式庄园，以此庆祝特朗普在2024年11月任命他为商务部长的决定。

Two months later, he received Intel’s leadership team there. The group, which included Frank Yeary, the company chairman, and David Zinsner, its finance chief, wanted help with their ailing business, three people familiar with the meeting said.

两个月后，他在这座庄园接待了英特尔高管团队。据三位知情人士透露，英特尔董事长弗兰克·亚里和首席财务官戴维·津斯纳等人希望为陷入困境的公司寻求帮助。

The tech industry’s reluctance to buy more U.S.-made chips was shaping up to be one of Mr. Lutnick’s biggest challenges. He would have to persuade chip makers and customers to spend more.

科技行业不愿更多采购美国本土芯片即将成为卢特尼克面临的最大挑战之一。他必须说服芯片制造商和客户加大投入。

The Intel team said it hoped to separate the company’s manufacturing operations from its business designing and selling chips. But Intel needed $50 billion to $70 billion and suggested the federal government provide about $25 billion, perhaps through a loan. The remainder would come from tech and finance companies.

英特尔团队表示，希望将公司的制造业务与芯片设计和销售业务分拆。但英特尔需要500亿至700亿美元资金，并提议由联邦政府提供约250亿美元，可能以贷款形式提供，剩余部分由科技和金融企业出资。

英特尔在亚利桑那州奥科蒂洛的工厂。去年8月，英特尔决定将公司业务10%的股份出售给美国政府。

Mr. Lutnick turned that idea into a bargaining chip with other companies.

卢特尼克将这一想法变成了与其他公司谈判的筹码。

Late that month, he met TSMC’s chief executive, C.C. Wei, in the office of his New York financial firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, two people with knowledge of the meeting said. Mr. Lutnick gave Mr. Wei a choice: TSMC could invest in Intel and operate Intel’s chip factories, or it could build more TSMC plants in the United States.

据两位知情人士称，当月晚些时候，他在自己位于纽约的金融公司坎托·菲茨杰拉德的办公室会见了台积电首席执行官魏哲家。卢特尼克给了魏哲家两个选择：台积电可以投资英特尔并运营其芯片工厂，或者在美国增建台积电工厂。

Getting TSMC to increase its U.S. production was essential. While Nvidia had become the world’s most valuable company because of its A.I. chips, it does not make those chips. That work is done by TSMC, mostly in its Taiwanese plants.

促成台积电扩大在美生产至关重要。尽管英伟达凭人工智能芯片成为全球市值最高的公司，但它并不生产这些芯片，这项工作主要由台积电在台湾的工厂完成。

Mr. Lutnick’s proposal occurred as Mr. Trump welcomed Mr. Huang of Nvidia to the White House for the first time. In an Oval Office meeting, the president told Mr. Huang that he planned to put tariffs on semiconductors because making them in Taiwan was risky, two people familiar with the meeting said.

卢特尼克提出这一方案之际，特朗普首次在白宫接待了英伟达创始人黄仁勋。据两位知情人士透露，在椭圆形办公室的会议上，特朗普告诉黄仁勋自己计划对半导体征收关税，因为在台湾生产芯片存在风险。

Mr. Trump told Mr. Huang that when he spoke with Mr. Xi about the island, China’s leader would breathe heavily, said one of these people who was briefed on the conversation. The president didn’t like it. He urged Mr. Huang to make chips in America.

据其中一位听取了谈话内容的人士称，特朗普告诉黄仁勋，当他与中国领导人谈及台湾时，对方的呼吸会变得急促起来。总统觉得不妙，并敦促黄仁勋在美国本土生产芯片。

Mr. Wei and Mr. Huang, who are close, spoke with each other about their companies’ dilemmas, two people familiar with their conversations said. For Mr. Wei, Intel’s operations would be burdensome. For Mr. Huang, tariffs would hurt profits. They agreed the solution was for Nvidia to buy more chips made in Arizona, which would let TSMC build additional plants.

据两位知情人士称，关系密切的魏哲家和黄仁勋曾就各自公司的困境进行沟通。对魏哲家而言，英特尔的业务将构成沉重负担；对黄仁勋来说，关税会损害利润。两人达成共识：解决方案是英伟达采购更多亚利桑那州生产的芯片，这样台积电就能扩建新厂。

TSMC and Nvidia declined to comment.

台积电和英伟达均拒绝置评。

Within a few weeks, Mr. Wei told Mr. Lutnick that TSMC would increase its U.S. investment by $100 billion and build four additional chip factories by 2028, two years ahead of its plans.

几周内，魏哲家告知卢特尼克，台积电将在美国增投1000亿美元，并在2028年前新建四座芯片工厂，比原计划提前两年。

‘Horrible, Horrible Thing’

“糟糕透顶的法案”

With TSMC’s commitment in hand, Mr. Trump turned up the pressure on the semiconductor industry.

获得台积电的承诺后，特朗普加大了对半导体行业的施压。

He called the CHIPS Act “a horrible, horrible thing” in his State of the Union address last year and urged Congress to get rid of it. He wanted to replace subsidies with tariffs that could penalize the tech companies. It was a reversal of Mr. Biden’s approach, and the start of major market interventions.

他在去年的国情咨文中称《芯片与科学法案》是“糟糕透顶的法案”，并敦促国会废除该法案。他希望用关税取代补贴，以此惩罚科技企业。这与拜登政府的做法完全相反，也标志着美国开始大规模干预市场。

In April, Mr. Trump announced tariffs for every country. The rate for Taiwan was 32 percent. The administration said it would exclude semiconductors, which would have tariff rates set separately.

4月，特朗普宣布对所有国家征收关税，对台湾的税率为32%。政府表示，半导体将获得豁免，关税税率另行设定。

Soon after, Taiwanese officials visited Washington to find out how to reduce their tariff rate, said a former U.S. official who later met with the group. Mr. Lutnick suggested that Taiwan encourage TSMC to further increase its U.S. investments or operate Intel’s plants.

一位后来与台湾代表团会晤的前美国官员透露，不久后，台湾官员到访华盛顿，试图寻求降低关税的办法。卢特尼克建议台湾鼓励台积电进一步扩大在美投资，或运营英特尔工厂。

The request showed Mr. Lutnick wasn’t satisfied with TSMC’s $100 billion commitment in Arizona. He intended to squeeze the company for additional concessions.

这一要求表明，卢特尼克并不满足于台积电在亚利桑那州1000亿美元的投资承诺，他打算逼迫该公司做出更多让步。

The Taiwanese group balked because TSMC is a private company. But when Mr. Lutnick persisted, Taiwanese officials met with TSMC executives and asked the company to help, two people familiar with the conversations said.

台湾代表团起初表示反对，因为台积电是私营企业。但据两位知情人士称，在卢特尼克的坚持下，台湾官员与台积电高管会面，请求该公司协助。

TSMC was open to investing more. But it wanted nothing to do with Intel.

台积电愿意追加投资，但不愿与英特尔有任何关联。

By last summer, the Trump administration decided to directly intervene in the chip market.

去年夏天，特朗普政府决定直接干预芯片市场。

Intel’s problems provided an opening. In July, it reported a $2.9 billion loss. Then, the U.S. government said the company’s new chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, had previously led a company that illegally sold chip technology to a Chinese university with military ties.

英特尔的困境提供了契机。7月，英特尔公布亏损29亿美元。随后，美国政府称，该公司新任首席执行官陈立武此前领导的公司曾向一家向有军方背景的中国大学非法出售芯片技术。

The next month, Mr. Trump demanded Mr. Tan’s resignation on social media, saying Mr. Tan was “highly CONFLICTED.” He then turned the attack into a negotiating tool.

次月，特朗普在社交媒体上要求陈立武辞职，称其存在“严重利益冲突”，并将这次攻击变成了谈判筹码。

Mr. Trump met with Mr. Tan days later and suggested that Intel give the United States 10 percent of Intel’s business. The chief executive agreed to the unorthodox request, even though some argued it was on shaky legal ground. Intel gave the government equity in exchange for the $8.9 billion it had been promised from the CHIPS Act.

几天后，特朗普与陈立武会面，提议英特尔将10%的业务交给美国政府。这位首席执行官同意了这一非常规要求，尽管有人认为此举法律依据不足。英特尔向政府出让股权，以换取《芯片法案》承诺的89亿美元资金。

The deal helped Intel secure its federal subsidies, without having to meet financial benchmarks to qualify for the money.

这笔交易帮助英特尔获得了联邦补贴，无需达到财务指标即可申领。

Intel’s business predicament looked worse after Samsung signed a deal in July to manufacture chips in Taylor, Texas, for Tesla, the plant’s first customer. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, had pursued the deal after leaving the Trump administration because he was concerned about a potential attack on Taiwan, three people familiar with the deal said.

7月，三星与特斯拉达成协议，在得克萨斯州泰勒市为特斯拉生产芯片，特斯拉成为该工厂的首个客户。此举令英特尔的经营困境雪上加霜。三位知情人士称，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在离开特朗普政府后推动了这笔交易，因为他担心台湾可能遭受攻击。

“People maybe are underweighting some of the geopolitical risks that are going to be a major factor in a few years,” Mr. Musk later said in a call with Wall Street analysts.

马斯克后来在与华尔街分析师的电话会议中表示：“人们可能低估了未来几年将成为主要因素的一些地缘政治风险。”

After the Trump administration’s investment, Intel began making headway. Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel and agreed to team up on A.I. chips. Apple began holding all-day engineering meetings with Intel to evaluate its manufacturing, three people familiar with the discussions said.

在特朗普政府注资后，英特尔开始取得进展。英伟达向英特尔投资50亿美元，并同意在人工智能芯片领域展开合作。据三位知情人士透露，苹果开始与英特尔举行全天工程会议，评估其制造能力。

Sophie Metzger, an Intel spokeswoman, said the company had been “encouraged by early feedback” from potential customers and shared the Trump administration’s goal to have “a leading American semiconductor manufacturer.”

英特尔发言人索菲·梅茨格表示，公司对潜在客户的“初步反馈感到鼓舞”，并认同特朗普政府打造“美国领先半导体制造商”的目标。

Last summer, Mr. Cook visited the Oval Office and promised to invest another $100 billion in the United States, which would support TSMC and other chip manufacturers. Ms. Su of Advanced Micro Devices and Mr. Amon of Qualcomm also promised to manufacture more chips in America.

去年夏天，库克到访椭圆形办公室，承诺再向美国投资1000亿美元，用于支持台积电等芯片制造商。AMD的苏姿丰和高通的安蒙也承诺在美国扩大芯片生产。

Mr. Lutnick is eager for more deals. His goal is to have 40 percent of Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing in the United States.

卢特尼克渴望达成更多交易，他的目标是将台湾40%的半导体产能转移到美国。

In September, he arrived at the Hay-Adams Hotel in Washington with a plan to persuade companies to give U.S. chip factories more business.

9月，他带着一项计划来到华盛顿的海–亚当斯酒店，试图说服企业把更多订单交给美国芯片工厂。

He told top chip executives, who had gathered for a Semiconductor Industry Association meeting, that the administration wanted them to buy 50 percent of their semiconductors from American plants, four people who attended said. Companies that didn’t would pay a 100 percent tariff.

据四位与会人士称，他在半导体行业协会会议上向芯片企业高管表示，政府要求他们从美国工厂采购50%的半导体，不遵守的企业将被征收100%关税。

Afterward, Mr. Lutnick used those same tariff threats to squeeze Taiwan and TSMC for more investments. He struck a deal to let Taiwanese chip companies avoid some U.S. tariffs, provided the companies planned to produce in the United States.

会后，卢特尼克再次以关税威胁向台湾和台积电施压，要求其追加投资。他达成协议：允许台湾芯片企业免除部分美国关税，前提是这些企业计划在美国本土生产。

TSMC agreed to buy land in Phoenix for at least five more plants, roughly doubling its Arizona plants, as part of a commitment by Taiwanese semiconductor and tech companies to invest an additional $150 billion in the United States. And Taiwan committed to $250 billion in credit guarantees to help move semiconductor and technology manufacturing to America.

台积电同意在菲尼克斯至少再购置五座工厂的用地，使其在亚利桑那州的工厂数量大致翻倍。这是台湾半导体和科技企业向美国再追加1500亿美元投资承诺的一部分。台湾还承诺提供2500亿美元的信贷担保，助力半导体和科技制造业迁往美国。

“We are unquestionably in a better position now than we were a few years ago, but this was never going to be solved overnight given the time it takes to get new chip manufacturing facilities up and running,” said John Neuffer, chief executive of the Semiconductor Industry Association.

半导体行业协会首席执行官约翰·诺伊弗表示：“与几年前相比，我们的处境无疑已有所改善。但考虑到新建芯片工厂所需的时间，这绝不可能一蹴而就。”

去年10月，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在台积电菲尼克斯工厂发表演讲后，为台积电工人签名。此次活动是为了发布美国制造的首个人工智能芯片晶圆。

In October, Mr. Huang flew to Phoenix to visit TSMC’s factory, which had made Nvidia’s first A.I. chip in the United States. He called it a “historic moment” and a major step for U.S. manufacturing.

10月，黄仁勋飞往菲尼克斯参观台积电工厂，该厂生产出了英伟达在美国本土制造的首款人工智能芯片。他称这是一个“历史性时刻”，也是美国制造业的重要一步。

Mr. Huang didn’t mention that the chip wasn’t finished. To become a leading A.I. chip, it needed to be connected with other chips. The process, known as packaging, requires shipping the American-made chip to a factory in Taiwan.

黄仁勋没有提及的是，这款芯片并未完成最终制造。要成为顶级人工智能芯片，它还需要与其他芯片进行连接，而这一被称为封装的工序，需要将美国制造的芯片运往台湾的工厂完成。