War in the Middle East has upended the world economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, warning in a report that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession.

国际货币基金组织周二表示，中东战争已颠覆了世界经济，并在一份报告中警告称，石油市场遭受的破坏可能会拖累经济增长、加剧通胀，增加全球经济陷入衰退的风险。

The sober message came after the global economy had largely weathered a pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and soaring inflation without tipping into a recession. But President Trump’s decision to initiate a war in Iran has stopped the world economy in its tracks.

这一严峻的判断出炉前，全球经济挺过了疫情、俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争以及通胀飙升，并未陷入衰退。但特朗普总统对伊朗开战的决定使全球经济骤然停滞。

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. sharply downgraded its growth forecasts, exposing the economic fallout from a geopolitical crisis that has roiled energy prices and injected a new bout of uncertainty into the global economy.

在最新一期的《世界经济展望》中，国际货币基金组织大幅下调了增长预期，凸显出这场地缘政治危机对经济的冲击——能源价格剧烈波动，并给全球经济注入新一轮不确定性。

“The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in the report. “The war interrupted what had been a steady growth trajectory.”

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙在报告中写道：“中东战争爆发后，全球前景骤然黯淡。战争打断了原本稳定的增长轨迹。”

The I.M.F. said that even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done. In that best-case scenario, the fund expects global growth to fall to 3.1 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025. That is down from the 3.3 percent that the fund projected in January. It is also lower than the 3.4 percent growth that it was prepared to project before the war broke out and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were halted.

国际货币基金组织表示，即便战争持续时间不长，全球经济所受的损害也已经形成。在最乐观情形下，该机构预计今年全球经济增速将从2025年的3.4%降至3.1%，低于其今年1月预测的3.3%，战争爆发、霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断之前原本准备给出的预测则为3.4%。

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙写道：“战争打断了原本稳定的增长轨迹。”

The forecasts were released as global policymakers arrived in Washington for the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. Just a few weeks ago, the gathering was expected to focus on other disruptions, including trade tensions, artificial intelligence and international fiscal imbalances. It will instead be dominated by the economic fallout of the war.

预测发布之际，全球政策制定者正齐聚华盛顿，参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行的春季会议。就在几周前，此次会议原本预计将聚焦贸易紧张局势、人工智能以及国际财政失衡等问题，但如今议题将被战争带来的经济冲击主导。

As the meetings started on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the I.M.F. and the World Bank to refocus on their core missions — financial stability for the fund and pulling people out of poverty for the bank. Mr. Bessent praised the bank for shifting away from its ambitions to combat climate change and becoming a proponent of nuclear energy.

周二会议开幕时，美国财长斯科特·贝森特敦促国际货币基金组织和世界银行重新聚焦其核心使命——后者的职责是维护金融稳定，前者则应致力于减少贫困。贝森特还称赞世界银行正在从应对气候变化的雄心转向支持核能发展。

However, Mr. Bessent suggested that the I.M.F. needed to “lead by example” and “get rid of their golf course out in Maryland” and instead focus more on global imbalances.

不过，贝森特建议国际货币基金组织需要“以身作则”，“卖掉他们在马里兰州的高尔夫球场”，转而更多地关注全球失衡问题。

“This slow motion buildup of global imbalances after a lack of sustainable growth is the biggest risk,” Mr. Bessent said at an Institute of International Finance gathering on the sidelines of the spring meetings. “The world cannot take a China with a trillion dollar trade surplus.”

“在缺乏可持续增长的情况下，全球失衡的缓慢积累是最大的风险，”贝森特在春季会议期间国际金融协会的一场活动上表示，“世界无法承受一个拥有万亿美元贸易顺差的中国。”

The Treasury secretary made no mention of the war in Iran and its impact on the global economy, which has alarmed the I.M.F. and policymakers around the world.

这位财政部长没有提及伊朗战争及其对全球经济的影响，而这一问题已令国际货币基金组织和世界各国政策制定者深感担忧。

The conflict has sent oil prices above $100 per barrel. Natural gas has spiked more than 80 percent, and surging fertilizer prices are raising costs for farmers.

这场冲突已将油价推高至每桶100美元以上。天然气价格飙升超过80%，不断上涨的化肥价格也在抬高农民的成本。

The I.M.F. laid out several scenarios for how the war could play out economically. The most severe case involves disruptions to energy markets that extend into next year. Such a scenario would drag global growth down to 2 percent and send inflation up to 6 percent.

国际货币基金组织列出了战争可能引发的几种经济情景。最严重的情况是能源市场的扰乱持续到明年。这将把全球经济增速拖至2%，并将通胀推高至6%。

“The downside risks are tremendous,” Mr. Gourinchas said.

“下行风险非常巨大，”古兰沙表示。

Even a more optimistic case, in which the war concludes expeditiously and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, will leave behind economic carnage. The I.M.F. estimates that oil prices will increase by 21.4 percent this year and that energy commodity prices, which the fund had said would decline in 2026, will instead rise by 19 percent this year.

即便是在较为乐观的情形下——战争迅速结束、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放——经济仍将遭受重创。国际货币基金组织预计，今年油价将上涨21.4%，而原本预计在2026年下降的能源大宗商品价格今年反而将上涨19%。

Those higher commodity prices will flow through the economy, the I.M.F. warned. That would raise costs of energy-intensive goods such as steel and cement, erode the purchasing power of consumers and most likely require central banks to raise interest rates.

国际货币基金组织警告称，大宗商品价格的上涨将传导至整个经济。这将推高钢铁、水泥等能源密集型产品的成本，削弱消费者的购买力，并很可能迫各国使央行加息。

The I.M.F. expects the economic impact of the war to be more damaging to low-income and developing economies and Persian Gulf energy exporters that are facing infrastructure damage and export disruptions from the war.

国际货币基金组织预计，这场战争对低收入和发展中经济体以及波斯湾能源出口国的冲击将更为严重，这些国家因为战事而正面临基础设施受损和出口受阻的问题。

Advanced economies, such as the United States, are expected to fare better but not emerge unscathed. The I.M.F. now projects U.S. output to rise to 2.3 percent in 2026. That is an increase from 2.1 percent growth in 2025, but slower than the 2.4 percent growth that the fund projected in January.

像美国这样的发达经济体预计表现会好一些，但也不可能毫发无损。国际货币基金组织目前预计2026年美国的经济产出将增长2.3%。这高于2025年的2.1%，但低于该组织在今年1月预测的2.4%。

The White House projected 3.5 percent gross domestic product growth in 2026 in its latest budget forecasts.

白宫在其最新的预算预测中估计，2026年美国国内生产总值将增长3.5%。

In the United States, the most apparent economic vulnerability appears to be the hit that consumers are feeling from higher gas prices. The national average for a gallon of gas was $4.11 as of Tuesday.

在美国，最明显的经济软肋似乎是汽油价格上涨对消费者造成的冲击。截至周二，全国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.11美元。

According to the I.M.F. report, the biggest winner from the war thus far appears to be Russia, whose economy is now expected to grow 1.1 percent in 2026, up from 1 percent in 2025.

根据国际货币基金组织的报告，到目前为止，这场战争中最大的赢家似乎是俄罗斯，其经济预计将在2026年增长1.1%，高于2025年的1%。

Higher oil prices and the temporary lifting of U.S. sanctions on some Russian oil sales brightened the outlook for its economy.

油价上涨以及美国暂时解除对俄罗斯部分石油销售的制裁对它的经济前景起到了提振效果。