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中东战争催化电网转型:能源危机中世界愈发依赖中国

MEAGHAN TOBIN, KEITH BRADSHER

The war in the Middle East has disrupted oil and gas supplies, jolting governments around the world to confront the urgent need for power grids that can withstand future shocks.

中东战争扰乱了石油和天然气供应,震动了世界各国政府,让它们不得不面对一个迫切需求:建设能够抵御未来冲击的电力网络。

But for many countries, the push to build grids based on renewable energy is creating a new dependence on technology from China.

但对许多国家来说,推动基于可再生能源的电网建设却意味着形成一种对中国技术的新依赖。

Chinese companies dominate the manufacturing of nearly every component of a modern grid, including solar panels, high-voltage cables, transformers and batteries that store energy for later use. Even before the war in Iran, they were expanding abroad, helping countries build grids designed to meet the heavy electricity demands of artificial intelligence.

中国公司在现代电网几乎所有组件的制造领域占据主导地位,包括太阳能电池板、高压电缆、变压器,以及用于储存能源以备后用的电池。甚至在伊朗战争爆发之前,这些企业就已在海外扩张,帮助各国建设能够满足人工智能高耗电需求的电网。

For decades, China has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into green energy, making it a cornerstone of the country’s drive for energy independence. It also blocked foreign companies from competing in large segments of its domestic market, such as manufacturing wind turbines and electric car batteries, to ensure that Chinese companies could grow into giants.

数十年来,中国投入数千亿美元发展绿色能源,将其作为国家能源独立战略的基石。它还限制外国公司在国内市场的大部分领域竞争(如风力涡轮机和电动汽车电池制造),以确保中国企业成长为巨头。

Now the war with Iran has laid bare the risks of reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas. Countries are realizing that all paths to renewable power run through China and its exporters.

如今,与伊朗的战争暴露了依赖中东石油和天然气的风险。各国意识到,通往可再生能源的所有道路都经过中国及其出口商。

Even if a cease-fire between the United States and Iran helps ease disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the shock has already grabbed the attention of governments worldwide. Faced with energy shortages, they are accelerating efforts to upgrade their power grids, bringing them to the doorstep of Chinese companies eager to supply them.

即使美国与伊朗达成停火有助于缓解霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断,这一冲击已引起全球各国政府的关注。面对能源短缺,它们正在加速升级电力网络的努力,这将它们直接带到乐意供货的中国公司门口。

“This is the right time for a shock like the war in Iran to suddenly catalyze even more investment and interest in renewables,” said Cory Combs, an associate director at Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.

“伊朗战争这样的冲击来得正是时候,突然催化了对可再生能源的更多投资和兴趣,”研究和咨询公司策纬咨询副总监科里·库姆斯说。

中国是大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴,也是稀土金属和太阳能电池板等制造业必需品的主要或近乎独家供应商。

Chinese companies increasingly produce the most affordable and most efficient renewable energy and grid storage technologies, Mr. Combs said. “You’re not going to compete with China at this point.”

库姆斯表示,中国公司越来越能生产出最实惠、最高效的可再生能源和电网储能技术。“此时此刻,你无法与中国竞争。”

Last month, the Philippines said it was working to bring 22 new renewable power plants online within weeks to shore up grid stability.

上个月,菲律宾表示正努力在数周内让22座新的可再生能源发电厂并网,以增强电网稳定性。

Already a major destination for Chinese investment in energy infrastructure, Brazil took bids in late March for the construction of new power plants, and is set to do so again this month for large-scale battery storage.

作为中国能源基础设施投资的主要目的地,巴西在3月底招标建设新的发电厂,并计划本月再次招标大规模电池储能项目。

“Brazil needs technology in this area, and China has a lot to contribute,” said Larissa Wachholz, a partner at Vallya, a firm that consults with Chinese and other international companies doing business in Brazil. The war in the Middle East has been “a huge reminder that the world will need even more energy,” she said.

“巴西在这个领域需要技术,而中国有很多可以贡献,”为中国及其他国际企业在巴西开展业务的咨询公司Vallya的合伙人拉里萨·瓦霍尔茨说。她表示,中东战争“是一个巨大的提醒:世界将需要更多能源”。

China is the main trading partner for most countries worldwide and the dominant or near-exclusive supplier of essentials like rare-earth metals and solar panels. But governments in Europe and elsewhere are growing uneasy that this reliance could undermine their economic and national security, especially after the past year, when China shut off much of the world’s supply of certain rare earths.

中国是全球大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴,也是稀土金属和太阳能电池板等必需品的主要或近乎独家供应商。但欧洲及其他地区的政府越来越担心,这种依赖可能削弱它们的经济和国家安全,尤其是在过去一年中国切断某些稀土全球大部分供应之后。

Sales of essential electricity-related equipment are already growing rapidly. Global shipments of batteries used to store electricity for a grid — a sector dominated by Chinese firms — nearly doubled in the first three months of the year, said Matty Zhao, head of Asia-Pacific oil, gas and basic materials research at BofA Global Research, a unit of Bank of America.

美国银行下属美银全球研究的亚太石油、天然气和基础材料研究主管麦蒂·赵表示,关键电力相关设备的销售已在快速增长。用于电网储电的电池(一个由中国企业主导的领域)全球出货量在今年前三个月几乎翻倍。

“After the war ends, countries around the world will continue to need to build out more of their energy network,” Ms. Zhao said.

“战争结束后,世界各国将继续需要进一步建设能源网络,”她说。

00biz china electrostate 02 vwgh master10502025年上海车展上展示的一块宁德时代电动汽车电池。

Chinese battery manufacturers and renewable energy equipment makers were already raising money in Hong Kong to fund an overseas push, anticipating a surge in demand from power-hungry A.I. systems. But the war has added fresh urgency and new opportunities.

中国电池制造商和可再生能源设备生产商此前已在香港筹资,为海外扩张提供资金,以应对耗电量巨大的人工智能系统带来的需求激增。但这场战争增加了新的紧迫感和新机会。

Last May, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., or CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries, set off a wave of listings with Hong Kong’s biggest public offering since 2021.

去年5月,全球最大电动汽车电池制造商宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司在香港启动了自2021年以来最大规模的公开募股,掀起了一波上市潮。

Another battery maker, Shuangdeng Group, followed in August. Since then, other companies have lined up to do the same, including Sungrow, which makes energy storage systems; Ningbo Deye, a producer of solar equipment; and Sieyuan, which makes crucial components for energy grids such as transformers.

另一家电池制造商双登集团于8月跟进。此后,其他公司也排队上市,包括生产储能系统的阳光电源、太阳能设备生产商宁波德业,以及生产变压器等电网关键部件的思源电气。

These companies are now spending to expand beyond China. In February, Sungrow announced plans to invest 230 million euros (about $270 million) for its first European plant, in Poland, to produce energy storage equipment. In March, Hithium, which has also applied to go public in Hong Kong, signed a letter of intent to build a €400 million battery plant in northern Spain.

这些公司如今正投入资金扩展到中国以外。2月,阳光电源宣布计划投资2.3亿欧元(约合18.4亿元人民币)在波兰建设其首座欧洲工厂,生产储能设备。3月,也已申请在香港上市的海辰储能签署意向书,在西班牙北部建设一座价值4亿欧元的电池工厂。

Since the war began, CATL has seen surging demand in Europe for home battery systems and growing interest in Asia in grid storage batteries, a company spokesman said, especially in countries with limited electricity and little domestic oil. He said that the company could not immediately expand capacity but that it had accelerated some projects.

一位公司发言人表示,自战争爆发以来,宁德时代看到欧洲对家用电池系统的需求激增,在亚洲对电网储能电池的兴趣也在增长,尤其是在电力有限且国内石油资源匮乏的国家。他说,公司无法立即扩大产能,但已加速了一些项目。

Fierce competition at home has pushed Chinese makers of energy storage and grid equipment to sharpen their manufacturing, innovate faster and look overseas for growth.

国内激烈的竞争推动中国储能和电网设备制造商不断提升制造水平、加快创新,并寻求海外增长。

Beijing has tolerated “brutal domestic competition requiring companies to continuously innovate in order to stay in the game,” said Frank Haugwitz, a consultant specializing in China’s solar sector.

北京容忍了“残酷的国内竞争,意味着企业必须持续创新才能留在赛场上”,专注于中国太阳能行业的顾问弗兰克·豪格维茨说。

Renewable energy was once expensive and unreliable. It was impossible to control the intensity of the wind and the sun, and power came in bursts that grids could not absorb. Batteries and storage systems now capture that excess energy and release it when needed.

可再生能源曾经昂贵且不可靠。风力和阳光的强度无法控制,电力以阵发形式出现,电网无法吸收。现在,电池和储能系统可以捕捉这些多余能源,并在需要时释放出来。

For years, high battery costs made renewable systems less competitive than fossil fuels. But advances in technology have brought costs down; renewable power paired with storage is now almost on par with the cost of conventional fuels, said Mr. Combs from Trivium.

多年来,高昂的电池成本使得可再生能源系统相比化石燃料缺乏竞争力。但技术进步已大幅降低成本;搭配储能的可再生电力如今在成本上已几乎与传统燃料相当,策纬咨询的库姆斯说。

Chinese companies dominate not just batteries and grid hardware but also, increasingly, the software that manages energy flows. While some governments may be wary of giving Chinese firms access to their grids via the software, they are likely to keep buying the hardware since they have few affordable alternatives, Mr. Combs said.

中国公司不仅主导电池和电网硬件,还越来越主导管理能源流动的软件。库姆斯说,虽然一些政府可能对通过软件让中国企业接入其电网保持警惕,但它们很可能继续购买硬件,因为几乎没有其他实惠的替代方案。

Chinese businesses also lead in producing a new generation of battery chemicals that allow large amounts of electricity to be stored when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, and can be used later to power homes, electric vehicles and data centers.

中国企业还领先新一代电池化学物质的生产,这些物质允许在阳光充足或风力强劲时储存大量电力,随后用于为家庭、电动汽车和数据中心供电。

The new chemistry uses lithium-ion batteries made with iron and phosphate. These batteries hold slightly less energy in the same space as older lithium-ion batteries that rely on nickel and cobalt but cost about 99 percent less. For grid storage, where space is less of a concern, the bulkier size matters far less.

新化学物质使用铁和磷酸盐制成的锂离子电池。与依赖镍和钴的老式锂电池相比,这些电池在相同空间内储存的能量略少,但成本降低了约99%。对于电网储能而言,空间不是主要问题,因此体积较大并不重要。

China produces nearly all of the world’s lithium iron phosphate batteries, according to the International Energy Agency.

根据国际能源署的数据,中国生产了全球几乎所有的磷酸铁锂电池。

The two dominant Chinese players are BYD, which has surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric carmaker, and CATL, the leading shipper of grid storage batteries.

两大主导的中国企业是已超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动汽车制造商的比亚迪,以及全球领先的电网储能电池供货商宁德时代。

As in other industries, Chinese firms’ dominance in energy technology was forged through intense competition for the enormous domestic market. China has spent years building out renewable energy and grid infrastructure at a scale no other country has matched. Last September, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, announced plans to expand wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels, adding up to 3,600 gigawatts.

与其他行业一样,中国企业在能源技术领域的主导地位是通过对庞大国内市场的激烈竞争锻造而成的。中国多年来以其他国家无法比拟的规模建设可再生能源和电网基础设施。去年9月,中国最高领导人习近平宣布计划将风电和太阳能发电容量在2020年基础上扩大至六倍,总量达到36亿千瓦。

CATL’s battery factories are vast and highly automated, stretching as long as six football fields laid end to end. The company is building them at a rapid clip to keep up with the surging demand.

宁德时代的电池工厂规模庞大且高度自动化,长度相当于六座足球场首尾相连。该公司正在快速建设这些工厂,以跟上激增的需求。

At its latest project in Yancheng, a port city about 200 miles north of Shanghai, more than 100 backhoes, bulldozers and other heavy machinery moved across a muddy construction site early this month.

本月初,在上海以北300多公里的港口城市盐城的宁德时代最新项目工地,100多台挖掘机、推土机和其他重型机械在泥泞的现场来回作业。

“It feels like the CATL construction site is developing very quickly,” said Luo Lijuan, a street cleaner who had been posted for the past month at the site’s entrance. “It changes every day.”

“感觉宁德的工地发展得非常快,”一位已在现场入口处工作一个月的清洁工罗丽娟(音)说。“每天都在变。”

Ruoxin Zhang自盐城、Xinyun Wu自台北对本文有研究贡献。

Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者,常驻台北,报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻,重点关注中国。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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