At a conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing in January, a group of the most influential executives and founders working in artificial intelligence in China gathered to discuss the state of their industry. The mood was bullish. One of the companies in the room, which included people from Tencent, Alibaba and Zhipu AI, could soon lead the world, they agreed.

今年1月，在位于北京的清华大学举行的一场会议上，一批中国人工智能领域最具影响力的企业高管与创始人齐聚一堂，探讨行业现状。现场气氛乐观高昂。与会者包括来自腾讯、阿里巴巴、智谱AI等企业的人士，他们一致认为，在座的某家公司很快有望领跑全球。

But one thing was holding them back: They needed more superfast semiconductors.

但有一件事在拖后腿：他们需要更多超高速半导体。

This year, Chinese chip makers are likely to produce a small fraction of the number of advanced chips made by foreign firms. Huawei, the telecommunications and electronics company leading China’s chip charge, has said it will need almost another two years to make chips that can perform as well as the current offerings from Nvidia of Silicon Valley.

今年，中国芯片制造商的先进芯片产量可能仅为外国公司的一小部分。作为中国芯片产业的领军企业，电信和电子公司华为表示，还需要近两年时间，才能造出性能与当前硅谷英伟达产品相当的芯片。

“Even the national champion is fighting an uphill battle,” said Xiaomeng Lu, a director with Eurasia Group, a political consultancy and research group in Washington.

“即便是国家领军者，也在艰难奋战，”华盛顿政治咨询与研究机构欧亚集团总监鲁晓萌表示。

Still, while Chinese chip companies make fewer, slower chips — in large part because U.S. policies have prevented them from importing key tools — there is no shortage of momentum in the country’s A.I. industry.

然而，尽管中国芯片企业因美国政策阻碍它们进口关键设备，导致产量有限且性能落后，但国内人工智能产业的发展势头依然强劲。

While Washington’s export controls have slowed China’s chip development, they have added fuel to Beijing’s decade-long push to make strategic technologies like semiconductors and A.I. entirely at home.

美国的出口管制虽然放缓了中国芯片的发展速度，却为北京持续十年的战略技术自主化进程——包括半导体与人工智能领域——注入了强劲动力。

Government and private money has been pouring into the development of Chinese artificial intelligence. Chinese tech stocks have made huge gains — Alibaba soared more than 94 percent last year. A stream of Chinese A.I. start-ups are going public. Last month, two of China’s most promising A.I. companies raised more than $1 billion in Hong Kong listings.

政府与民间资金正大量涌入中国人工智能领域。中国科技股大幅上涨——阿里巴巴去年涨幅超过94%。一批中国人工智能初创企业陆续上市。上月，中国两家最具潜力的人工智能公司在香港上市，融资超10亿美元。

The gap between the money flowing into China’s A.I. sector and the reality that Chinese companies produce fewer chips than the country needs underlines the urgency of Beijing’s self-sufficiency efforts, and how much the Chinese A.I. industry still depends on foreign chips.

涌入中国人工智能领域的资金规模与中国企业芯片产量仍无法满足国内需求的现实之间存在巨大反差。这既凸显了北京推动芯片自主的紧迫性，也显示出中国人工智能产业对国外芯片的依赖程度之深。

In December, President Trump extended China a lifeline when he allowed Nvidia to sell some of its advanced chips to Chinese companies, reversing years of U.S. policy. But whether China will get broad access to those chips remains an open question ahead of Mr. Trump’s planned visit to Beijing next month.

去年12月，特朗普总统为中国送上救命稻草，允许英伟达向中国企业出售部分先进芯片，扭转了美国执行数年的政策。但在下月特朗普计划访华之前，中国能否大范围获得这类芯片，仍是未知数。

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋，摄于1月。此前一个月，特朗普总统表示将允许英伟达向中国公司出售部分先进芯片。

The Memory Chip Lag

存储芯片的落后

The Chinese government’s push to make cutting-edge chips at home began more than a decade ago. And it has spent more than $150 billion on the drive.

中国政府推动本土制造尖端芯片的努力始于十多年前，已为此投入超过1500亿美元。

China’s biggest tech companies, including Huawei, Alibaba and the TikTok parent company ByteDance, have started chip design businesses. Chip makers, many working with Huawei, are building dozens of factories and have hired top engineers from Taiwan and South Korea.

包括华为、阿里巴巴以及TikTok母公司字节跳动在内的中国大型科技企业均已启动芯片设计业务。各家芯片厂商——其中多家与华为合作——正在兴建数十座工厂，并从台湾和韩国引进顶尖工程师。

But the task of catching up has gotten progressively more difficult. While Chinese companies have been building their own supply chain for chip making, officials in Washington have tried to hold them back. Three presidential administrations have used export controls to keep Chinese companies from buying advanced chips and the tools to make them, over concerns the technology could fuel China’s economic and military power.

但追赶的难度越来越大。在中国企业搭建本土芯片供应链的同时，华盛顿则在竭力遏制。三届美国政府均通过出口管制阻止中国企业购买先进芯片及制造设备，担心这类技术会增强中国的经济与军事实力。

The restrictions have kept Chinese companies from buying equipment made by the Dutch company ASML that performs a crucial step in the chip making process. The lack of access to these machines, which are the size of school buses, is one reason Chinese companies are making chips that lag the performance of the top of the line from Nvidia.

这些限制令中国企业无法购买荷兰阿斯麦公司生产的芯片制造关键设备。这种设备体积接近校车，无法获得这类机器是中国芯片性能落后于英伟达顶级产品的原因之一。

Those are the kinds of chips that power artificial intelligence systems. Chinese companies will most likely make just 2 percent as many A.I. chips as foreign firms do this year, said Tim Fist, a director at the Institute for Progress, a think tank in Washington.

这类芯片正是驱动人工智能系统的核心。华盛顿智库进步研究所总监蒂姆·菲斯特表示，今年中国企业生产的AI芯片数量大概率仅为外国企业的2%。

The production gap between Chinese and foreign manufacturers is especially big for memory chips, which are essential for the large calculations done by A.I.

中外厂商在存储芯片上的产量差距尤其巨大，而存储芯片对AI的大规模计算至关重要。

Companies outside China will make 70 times as much memory storage capacity this year as Chinese chip makers will, Mr. Fist said.

菲斯特称，今年中国境外公司的存储芯片产能将达到中国芯片制造商的70倍。

The leading makers of memory chips are the South Korean conglomerates Samsung and SK Hynix. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest chip producer, dominates production of the most advanced chips.

全球领先的存储芯片厂商是韩国企业三星和SK海力士。而全球最大芯片生产商台积电则垄断了最先进芯片的制造。

去年上海一场会议上的华为展台。特朗普上任后便着手推动各国停止在其电信基础设施中使用华为设备。

Huawei’s Pivot

华为的转型

In 2014, China was the world’s largest market for semiconductors. But 90 percent of the chips its companies used were made outside the country.

2014年，中国已是全球最大半导体市场，但其企业使用的芯片中有90%依赖进口。

Concerned about that dependency, the State Council, China’s top governing body, approved a plan to spend billions and made a vow: China would be making every part of its semiconductor supply chain at home by 2030.

出于对这种依赖的担忧，中国最高行政机构国务院批准了一项耗资相当于数十亿美元的计划，并立下目标：到2030年，中国将实现半导体供应链所有环节的本土化生产。

Policymakers had reason to be concerned about the risks that foreign technology posed to Chinese infrastructure. Earlier that year, documents provided by the former National Security Agency contractor Edward J. Snowden had disclosed that the U.S. government had monitored the communications of top executives at Huawei.

政策制定者有充分理由担忧外国技术对中国基础设施构成的风险。当年早些时候，前美国国家安全局雇员爱德华·斯诺登披露的文件显示，美国政府曾监控华为高管的通讯。

Then in 2017, President Trump fined the Chinese telecommunications giant ZTE for allegedly violating U.S. sanctions on Iran, crippling its business overnight. Although ZTE does not manufacture chips, the action gave China another lesson in its need for self reliance.

2017年，特朗普政府以涉嫌违反美国对伊朗制裁为由，对中国电信巨头中兴通讯处以罚款，一夜之间使其业务陷入瘫痪。尽管中兴并不生产芯片，但这一事件让中国再次意识到自给自足的必要性。

Next came Huawei. The first Trump administration embarked on a global campaign to get countries to stop using Huawei’s equipment in their telecommunications infrastructure. Huawei responded by offloading that business line and getting in step with Beijing’s self-sufficiency program.

随后轮到华为。第一届特朗普政府全发起全球行动，要求各国停止在电信基础设施中使用华为设备。华为的应对是剥离相关业务线，并紧跟北京的自给自足战略。

“Huawei was unique in its capabilities and its alignment with China’s national goals,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies Chinese industrial policy. “Huawei’s experience was a microcosm of China’s broader experience: suddenly being cut off and now scrambling to build its own.”

“华为在技术能力和与国家目标的契合度方面独一无二，”研究中国产业政策的布鲁金斯学会研究员陈凯欣表示。“华为的经历是中国更广泛处境的缩影：供应突然被切断，如今正全力自主研发。”

Beijing also pushed foreign companies to turn over technology as a price of admission to the China market. Qualcomm, a San Diego tech giant, entered into a joint venture with Huaxintong Semiconductor in 2016. The Chinese government provided land and financing, and Qualcomm offered the technology and about $140 million in initial funding.

北京还推动外国企业以转让技术作为进入中国市场的条件。总部位于圣地亚哥的科技巨头高通，2016年与华芯通半导体成立合资公司。中国政府提供土地与资金支持，高通则提供技术和约1.4亿美元初始资金。

During this time, Huawei became one of China’s most popular smartphone makers. And it started working closely with chip factories to make chips for smartphones and A.I. systems.

在此期间，华为成为中国最受欢迎的智能手机厂商之一，并开始与芯片工厂紧密合作，为手机和AI系统制造芯片。

Huawei has come out with a line of chips that are comparable to some of Nvidia’s older models. But analysts said those chips contained key components that foreign rivals like TSMC and Samsung had made.

华为已推出一系列芯片，性能可与英伟达部分旧款产品媲美。但分析师表示，这些芯片仍包含台积电、三星等外国竞争对手生产的关键组件。

自美国官员牵头游说荷兰政府阻止向中国出口设备以来，中国企业便无法购得阿斯麦最先进的制造设备。

Clouds and Clusters

云服务与算力集群

The inability to get essential tools from ASML has been a major chokehold for Chinese chip makers. Since U.S. officials led an effort to lobby the Dutch government to block shipments to China, no Chinese company has been able to buy ASML’s most advanced tools.

无法从阿斯麦获得核心设备是中国芯片厂商的主要瓶颈。自美国官员牵头游说荷兰政府禁止向中国出口设备以来，没有任何一家中国企业能买到阿斯麦最先进的设备。

Instead, Chinese chip makers have recruited engineers with experience using those machines at TSMC, the world’s top chip maker. And now, Chinese start-ups are trying to make their own chip manufacturing equipment.

作为应对，中国芯片厂商从全球顶级芯片制造商台积电挖来有相关设备操作经验的工程师。如今，中国初创企业也在尝试自主研发芯片制造设备。

A.I. systems require an immense amount of computing power to learn. China’s A.I. companies are trying to get the computing power they need by strapping together numerous less powerful chips. Huawei has taken such an approach, and the Chinese government has built what it calls “intelligent computing clusters” that are essentially state-run data centers.

人工智能系统学习需要海量算力。中国人工智能企业正尝试将大量性能较弱的芯片集群组网，以获得所需算力。华为已采用这一路线，中国政府也建成了所谓“智能算力集群”，本质上是政府运营的数据中心。

But those clusters need a lot of chips. Experts and people who work in the industry say China’s most advanced chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Company, which does some work for Huawei, has struggled to produce enough chips. The chips it does produce are prone to defects and use more electricity than cutting-edge foreign ones. SMIC did not respond to a request for comment.

但这些集群需要大量芯片。业内专家与相关人士表示，为华为提供部分服务的中国最先进芯片厂商中芯国际一直难以保证足够产量。其生产的芯片良品率偏低、功耗高于国外尖端产品。中芯国际未回应置评请求。

“Manufacturing volume is going to be an issue,” said Kendra Schaefer, a partner at Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.

“制造产能会是个问题，”咨询机构Trivium China合伙人肯德拉·谢弗表示。

Nonetheless, multiple Chinese A.I. researchers have reported breakthroughs in finding new ways to link chips together for maximum efficiency. Zhipu said last month that it had built its latest model entirely using Huawei’s chips and software.

尽管如此，多位中国人工智能研究者已报告在芯片高效组网方面取得突破。智谱AI上月表示，其最新大模型已完全基于华为芯片与软件构建。

So far, the efficiency gains have been limited and have not helped Chinese companies escape the fact that A.I. demands huge quantities of chips.

到目前为止，这类效率提升仍有限，并未能帮助中国企业摆脱AI对海量芯片的需求困境。

Another way China’s A.I. companies are getting the computing power they need is by paying cloud providers like Alibaba and Amazon for remote access to massive data centers stocked with powerful chips.

中国AI企业获取算力的另一种方式是向阿里云、亚马逊等云服务商付费，远程接入搭载高性能芯片的大型数据中心。

But the strategy is expensive.

但这一策略成本高昂。

Documents filed by Zhipu and Minimax, another Chinese A.I. start-up, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last month show that the two companies are spending a lot more buying cloud services than they are earning in revenue.

智谱AI与另一家中国人工智能初创公司稀宇科技上月在港交所提交的文件显示，两家公司购买云服务的支出远超营收。