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中国、朝鲜、俄罗斯,伊朗“友邦”为何无人出手相助?

BEN HUBBARD

遭美以联军空袭摧毁的一个德黑兰警察局。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Despite long being treated as a pariah by the West and isolated by U.S. sanctions, Iran’s revolutionary Islamic government maintained diplomatic, commercial and military ties with a range of countries.

尽管伊朗伊斯兰革命政府长期被西方视为弃儿,并在美国制裁下陷入孤立,它仍与多个国家保持着外交、经贸和军事联系。

Turkey and India engaged with it on trade and security. China looked to it for cheap oil. North Korea, Venezuela and Russia considered it an ally in their struggle against the West and conspired with it to develop military technology and subvert sanctions.

土耳其与印度在贸易和安全领域同伊朗往来;中国从伊朗获取廉价石油;朝鲜、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯将伊朗视为对抗西方的盟友,并与其合谋开发军事技术,规避制裁。

Now that Iran finds itself under attack by the United States and Israel, those friends, neighbors and partners have little more than words to offer the Islamic Republic. They, in turn, could become targets. Turkey on Wednesday said NATO shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran that was headed for Turkish airspace. On Thursday, Iran denied it had targeted Turkey.

如今,伊朗遭到美国和以色列袭击,这些友邦、邻国与伙伴能带给伊朗伊斯兰共和国的,却只有口头上的支持。而它们自身反而可能成为袭击目标。土耳其周三称,北约击落了一枚从伊朗发射、飞向土耳其领空的弹道导弹。周四,伊朗否认曾以土耳其为目标。

Without true allies, it is a lonely war for Iran.

没有真正的盟友,伊朗正陷入孤军奋战。

That is a product, experts say, of Iran’s foreign policy, which has shied away from commitments to other countries while investing in militias that share its religiously-fueled hatred of the United States and Israel.

专家表示,这是伊朗外交政策的必然结果:它不愿向他国作出承诺,同时大力扶持那些出于宗教狂热仇视美国和以色列的民兵组织。

Those militias can’t help Iran now. The most formidable of them, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, have been ground down by wars with Israel. The Houthi militia in Yemen and Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran can target ships in the Red Sea or American forces in Iraq. But such attacks are unlikely to change the course of a war inside Iran.

这些民兵如今已无力帮助伊朗。其中实力最强的黎巴嫩真主党与加沙哈马斯已在与以色列的战争中元气大伤。也门胡塞武装与伊朗支持的伊拉克武装可以袭击红海船只或驻伊拉克美军,但此类行动难以改变伊朗本土战事的走向。

05int iran friends SWAP zgvp master1050抗议者挥舞真主党与伊朗国旗,抗议美以部队刺杀伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊。

Nor have Iran’s relationships with other states resulted in concrete support, even from those united by their animosity toward what they consider Western imperialism.

伊朗与其他国家的关系也没有转化为实质性支持,即便那些因共同敌视所谓西方帝国主义而团结的国家亦是如此。

“It is a rude wake-up call for those who believed that there was an emergent anti-West axis,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank.

“对那些相信一个新兴反西方轴心正在形成的人来说,这是刺耳的警钟,”土耳其前外交官、伊斯坦布尔智库Edam主管锡南·乌尔根表示。

Referring to Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, he said, “Now you see that it means nothing for one of those four countries when they are under siege by the West.”

谈及俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和朝鲜,他说:“现在你会发现,当这四个国家中的一个遭到西方围攻时,这毫无意义。”

Most countries that maintain ties with Iran do so out of strategic, geographic or economic necessity, giving them little reason to sacrifice when Iran comes under fire, experts said.

专家称,大多数与伊朗保持关系的国家都是出于战略、地理或经济上的需要,几乎没有理由在伊朗遭受打击时为其牺牲。

Now, those relationships may not protect them.

而现在,这些关系甚至未必能保护它们自身。

Turkey’s defense ministry did not specify the target of the ballistic missile from Iran that NATO defenses shot down on Wednesday. But a senior U.S. military official and a Western official said it was aimed at Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, which houses a U.S. Air Force contingent and other NATO forces. Debris from the munitions that brought the missile down fell about 30 miles from the base. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to journalists.

土耳其国防部并未说明周三被北约防空系统击落的伊朗弹道导弹的攻击目标。但一名美军高级官员和一名西方官员表示,导弹瞄准的是土耳其南部的因吉尔利克空军基地,这里驻扎着美国空军分遣队及其他北约部队。拦截导弹产生的残骸落在距基地约48公里处。这些官员因未获授权向媒体发言而要求匿名。

The Iranian military denied in a statement on Thursday that it had fired a missile at Turkey, saying it respected Turkey’s sovereignty.

伊朗军方周四发表声明否认向土耳其发射导弹,称尊重土耳其主权。

Turkey shares a 300-mile border with Iran, has longstanding standing diplomatic and trade ties and also tried to fend off the war.

土耳其与伊朗拥有约480公里的共同边境,两国有着长期的外交与贸易联系,土耳其也曾努力避免卷入战争。

Mr. Ulgen, the former diplomat, characterized Turkey’s approach to Iran as rooted in history and driven by proximity and “grudging respect.”

前外交官乌尔根称,土耳其对伊朗的态度植根于历史,由地缘邻近性驱动,并带着“勉强的尊重”。

“We are not friends with Iran, we don’t agree on much, but we have to coexist in this geographical space,” he said.

“我们和伊朗不是朋友,在很多问题上立场不一,但我们必须在这片地理空间中共存,”他说。

Despite his warm ties with President Trump, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey called the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran a “clear violation of international law.” On Monday, he said on social media that he was “saddened” by the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

尽管土耳其总统埃尔多安与特朗普总统关系融洽,他仍称美以对伊朗的袭击“明显违反国际法”。周一,他在社交媒体上表示,对伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊身亡“深感悲痛”。

05int iran friends 03 lqbv master10502024年,土耳其东部凡省,土耳其士兵沿着土耳其与伊朗边境墙巡逻。

Turkish officials are working to stop the war, not because they love Iran’s leaders but because they fear that instability in Iran could spill into Turkey, as happened during past conflicts in Iraq and Syria, which also border Turkey.

土耳其官员正努力阻止战争,并非因为他们喜爱伊朗领导层,而是担心伊朗的不稳定会外溢至土耳其——就像与土耳其接壤的伊拉克和叙利亚发生冲突时那样。

The fall of the government in Tehran could be even worse, Mr. Ulgen said.

乌尔根说,德黑兰政权倒台的后果可能更糟。

“The type of instability that regime change could create could be an order of magnitude bigger than what we saw in Syria and Iraq,” he said.

“政权更迭可能引发的动荡规模可能比我们在叙利亚和伊拉克看到的还要高出一个量级,”他说。

India, too, engaged with Iran as an important player in its region and to seek economic advantages, according to Kabir Taneja, the executive director of the Dubai-based Observer Research Foundation Middle East.

总部位于迪拜的中东观察者研究基金会执行主管卡比尔·塔内贾表示,印度同样将伊朗视为地区重要力量,并谋求经济利益。

“There was definitely no overlap as far as worldview is concerned,” he said. “It was always a very transactional relationship, but a functional and a useful one as far as New Delhi was concerned.”

“两国在世界观上绝对没有共同点,”他说。“这始终是一种非常功利的关系,但在新德里看来,它实用且有利。”

India exports rice, produce and pharmaceuticals to Iran and invested heavily in the Chabahar Port on Iran’s southern coast to give itself an export pathway to Central Asia that circumvented Pakistan, its top rival.

印度向伊朗出口大米、农产品和药品,并在伊朗南部海岸的恰巴哈尔港投入巨资,为自己开辟一条绕过主要对手巴基斯坦的中亚出口通道。

05int iran friends 04 lqbv master1050特朗普于2025年在白宫会见土耳其总统埃尔多安。

Ties with Iran did not stop India from becoming Israel’s largest arms customer, with Indian purchases making up 34 percent of Israel’s total sales between 2020 and 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

与伊朗的关系并未阻止印度成为以色列最大的军火买家。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据显示,2020至2024年,印度采购量占以色列军火总出口的34%。

Visiting Israel just days before the war, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India addressed the Israeli Knesset, received a parliamentary honor and signed trade deals with his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu.

战争爆发前几天,印度总理莫迪还在访问以色列,在以色列议会发表演讲、接受议会荣誉,并与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡签署贸易协议。

India’s balancing act between Israel, Iran and other countries meant it would steer clear of the war in Iran, Mr. Taneja said.

塔内贾表示,印度在以色列、伊朗及其他国家间的平衡策略意味着它会置身于伊朗战争之外。

“Indian foreign policy is clear in that matter, that it does not enter into other people’s business,” he said.

“印度在这一问题上的外交政策很明确:不干涉他国内政,”他说。

Other countries that have relationships with Iran and also host the U.S. military have found themselves targets as Iran strikes back.

其他与伊朗保持关系、同时又驻扎美军的国家也因伊朗的报复而成为目标。

Iran has fired drones and missiles at Qatar, with which it shares an offshore gas field; the United Arab Emirates, a major trade partner; and Oman, a key mediator in talks with the United States that sought to prevent the war.

伊朗已向卡塔尔、阿联酋和阿曼发射无人机和导弹。卡塔尔与伊朗共享海上天然气田,阿联酋是伊朗的主要贸易伙伴,阿曼则是在防止战争的美伊谈判中担任关键调解人的国家。

Iran has received little support from partner countries that share its hostility to the West.

伊朗几乎没有从那些同样敌视西方的伙伴国家获得实质支持。

North Korea condemned the war but has done little else, and Venezuela’s posture has changed since the United States ousted President Nicolás Maduro in January.

朝鲜谴责了战争,但未采取其他行动;而委内瑞拉自今年1月美国推翻该国总统马杜罗后,立场已发生转变。

05int iran friends 05 lqbv master1050以色列总理内塔尼亚胡与印度总理莫迪在耶路撒冷会晤,此时距离伊朗战争爆发仅有数日。

China remains Iran’s largest trading partner, mostly because it buys more than three-quarters of Iran’s oil, which it gets at a significant discount because of U.S. sanctions.

中国仍是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴,主要原因是中国购买了伊朗逾四分之三的石油——由于美国制裁影响,中国能以大幅折扣获得这些石油。

China has called for restraint, criticized the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei as “unacceptable” and appointed an envoy to mediate. It is unlikely to directly challenge the United States, analysts said, so as not to upset a fragile détente before Mr. Trump’s expected visit to China in April.

中方呼吁保持克制,批评哈梅内伊遇袭身亡“不可接受”,并任命特使斡旋。分析人士称,中国不太可能直接挑战美国,以免破坏4月特朗普访华前本就脆弱的缓和局面

Russia has been Iran’s closest state ally in pushing back against the West for more than a decade.

十多年来,俄罗斯一直是伊朗对抗西方最亲密的国家盟友。

“You have this growing alignment and grievance over the global order and the U.S. alliance system,” said Hanna Notte, the Eurasia program director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

“在全球秩序和美国同盟体系问题上,它们的立场日益趋同,不满情绪也日益一致,”詹姆斯·马丁不扩散研究中心欧亚项目主任汉娜·诺特表示。

Military cooperation between Russia and Iran grew during the conflict in Syria, where both countries propped up President Bashar al-Assad before he was ousted in December 2024.

俄伊军事合作在叙利亚冲突期间不断加深,两国曾共同扶持阿萨德总统,直至他在2024年12月被推翻。

05int iran friends 06 lqbv master1050美国和以色列空袭后,烟雾升腾于德黑兰上空。

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine further solidified the relationship because Russia needed Iranian drone technology, which it deployed against Ukraine.

俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰进一步巩固了两国关系,因为俄方需要伊朗的无人机技术,并将其用于对乌作战。

In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a major cooperation treaty that deepened their defense ties but did not include a requirement to come to each other’s defense in case of a military attack.

2025年1月,俄伊签署重大合作条约,深化防务关系,但并未约定在遭受军事攻击时必须相互保卫。

Russia has given Iran some military equipment but its support has been limited, Ms. Notte said, in part because Russia did not want to complicate its relationship with Israel.

诺特表示,俄罗斯向伊朗提供了部分军事装备,但支持力度有限,部分原因是俄罗斯不想令本国同以色列的关系复杂化。

Now that Iran is at war, Russia will likely stick to its policy of avoiding direct military conflict with Israel and the United States in the Middle East, Ms. Notte said.

诺特称,如今伊朗陷入战争,俄罗斯很可能继续奉行避免在中东与以色列和美国发生直接军事冲突的政策。

That will likely confine Russia’s contribution to standing up for Iran at the United Nations and in other international forums.

这意味着俄罗斯的贡献很可能仅限于在联合国及其他国际论坛上为伊朗发声。

“The Russians have defended the Iranians quite aggressively,” Ms. Notte said of Russia’s diplomacy. “But that does not do much for Iran in this situation.”

“俄罗斯人在外交上相当积极地为伊朗辩护,”诺特在谈及俄外交时说。“但在当前局势下,这对伊朗帮助不大。”

Lara Jakes自罗马、Eric Schmitt自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。

Ben Hubbard是《纽约时报》伊斯坦布尔分社社长,报道土耳其及周边区域新闻。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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