Perhaps no business needs certainty more than the auto industry. It usually takes at least four years to design a new model and bring it to market, requiring carmakers to divine what buyers will find appealing by the time the vehicles reach showrooms.

或许没有哪个行业比汽车业更需要确定性。一款新车型从设计到上市通常至少需要四年时间，这要求车企必须预判出当车辆最终进入展厅时，消费者会青睐哪些特性。

Yet industry veterans say they can’t remember a time when the biggest carmakers faced as much uncertainty as they do now. They have been whipsawed by tariffs. Chinese carmakers are breathing down their necks around the world. Self-driving taxi companies like Waymo are changing the very nature of transportation. Software has replaced horsepower as a key selling point. Sales are flat almost everywhere, and profits are declining.

但行业资深人士表示，他们记忆中从未有过像现在这样的时候，大型车企面临如此巨大的不确定性。关税政策反复冲击；中国车企在全球范围内步步紧逼；Waymo等自动驾驶出租车公司正在改变交通的本质；软件已取代马力成为核心卖点；全球几乎所有地区销量都陷入停滞，利润不断下滑。

How U.S. carmakers cope with this pivotal moment will determine whether they survive as global players or slide into irrelevance, becoming niche manufacturers of pickups and sport utility vehicles that only Americans buy.

美国车企如何应对这一关键节点将决定它们是继续作为全球玩家生存下去，还是沦为无足轻重的小众厂商，生产只供美国人购买的皮卡和运动型多用途汽车。

The early indications are not promising. Many established U.S. and European carmakers have been stumped by electric vehicles at seemingly every turn. First, Tesla’s meteoric rise caught them unawares. They responded by investing in new factories but are now pulling back after the U.S. government repealed tax credits and other subsidies for those cars.

初步迹象并不乐观。许多老牌美国和欧洲车企在电动汽车领域似乎处处碰壁。先是特斯拉的迅速崛起令他们措手不及。它们随即投资建设新工厂，但在美国政府取消电动汽车税收抵免等补贴后，如今又开始收缩战线。

“The term ‘unprecedented’ is always overused. But it is really everything coming together at once,” said Stuart Taylor, a former Ford Motor executive who is chief product officer at Envorso, which advises carmakers on software.

“‘史无前例’这个词总是被滥用，但现在的情况确实是所有问题一起到来了，”曾任职于福特汽车、现任软件咨询公司Envorso首席产品官的斯图尔特·泰勒说。

U.S. carmakers, in particular, face some difficult choices.

美国汽车制造商尤其面临艰难抉择。

President Trump has given them a short-term gain by dismantling clean air regulations and fuel economy standards, making it easier to sell pickups and sport utility vehicles that are very profitable.

通过废除清洁空气法规和燃油经济性标准，特朗普总统为它们带来了短期利好，让利润丰厚的皮卡和运动型多功能车更容易销售。

Should they use that relief to please Wall Street and make as much money as possible? Or should they keep investing in new technologies?

它们应该利用这种宽松政策取悦华尔街、尽可能赚取利润，还是应该继续投资新技术？

Auto experts say old-line companies risk becoming obsolete if they don’t learn how to make appealing, profitable electric vehicles, which most executives expect to eventually replace cars that run on gasoline despite the Trump’s administration efforts to promote fossil fuels. Improvements in electric vehicle technology mean that, within a few years, they will be cheaper to buy and will charge in 15 minutes or less.

汽车行业专家表示，如果老牌车企不能学会打造有吸引力、能盈利的电动汽车，就有可能被淘汰。尽管特朗普政府大力推广化石燃料，但大多数高管预计，电动汽车最终将取代燃油车。电动汽车技术的进步意味着几年内购车成本将会更低，充电时间可缩短至15分钟以内。

One of the biggest problems established manufacturers have is that many of the electric models they sell have fared poorly against cars from Tesla and other newer companies.

老牌车企面临的最大问题之一是，它们推出的许多电动车型在市场竞争中屡屡败给特斯拉等新兴企业。

Tesla and Chinese carmakers like BYD have a substantial lead in battery technology and software. Established Western carmakers tend to lose money on electric vehicles and for the most part are also behind on self-driving cars. The Chinese have a head start there, too, as do Tesla and Waymo, a division of Google’s parent company that operates autonomous taxis in 10 U.S. cities and is expanding rapidly.

特斯拉以及比亚迪等中国车企在电池技术和软件方面拥有显著领先优势。传统西方车企在电动汽车领域大多处于亏损状态，并且在自动驾驶领域整体落后。中国企业在这个领域同样起步更早，特斯拉以及谷歌母公司旗下的Waymo也是如此——Waymo已在美国10座城市运营自动驾驶出租车，并正在快速扩张。

“It’s not impossible that in 10 years we wake up and see that we actually don’t have a domestic industry in the sense of something that does significant research and development,” said Susan Helper, a professor at Case Western Reserve University who was chief economist at the Commerce Department under President Barack Obama.

“10年后我们醒来时，可能会发现，国内已不存在一个能进行大规模研发的汽车产业，”凯斯西储大学教授、奥巴马政府时期商务部首席经济学家苏珊·赫尔珀说。

“Maybe Ford and G.M. exist as nameplates but the powertrains and their cars are all Chinese,” said Ms. Helper, who also advised President Joseph R. Biden Jr. on electric vehicles.

“也许福特和通用还作为品牌存在，但动力总成和整车都来自中国，”曾在拜登政府担任电动汽车政策顾问的赫尔珀表示。

得克萨斯州奥斯汀的一辆Waymo自动驾驶汽车，摄于去年。老牌美国汽车制造商在自动驾驶汽车领域远远落后。

The challenges facing automakers in the United States and Europe come after a tough year.

经历了去年一年的艰难后，美国和欧洲车企如今更是面临重重挑战。

Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the European-American company that owns Chrysler, Fiat, Jeep and Peugeot, reported multibillion-dollar losses at the end of 2025 as they delayed and canceled electric vehicle investments.

福特、通用汽车，以及拥有克莱斯勒、菲亚特、Jeep和标致品牌的欧美合资公司Stellantis推迟并取消了电动汽车投资，在2025年底均报告数十亿美元亏损。

Even automakers that made money last year, like the German luxury brand Mercedes-Benz, made a lot less of it. Among major automakers, only Toyota of Japan managed a significant increase in sales during 2025. Analysts expect industrywide sales to be flat again in 2026. (Ford did report a 1 percent increase in sales for the year.)

即使是德国豪华品牌梅赛德斯-奔驰等去年实现盈利的车企，利润也大幅缩水。在主要车企中，只有日本丰田在2025年实现销量显著增长。分析师预计，2026年全行业销量将再次持平。（福特报告全年销量增长为1%。）

Automakers say things are not as bad as they look. Many have cash reserves they built up during the pandemic, when shortages allowed them to raise car prices.

车企表示，实际情况并没有看上去那么糟糕。许多企业仍持有新冠疫情期间积累的现金储备，当时供应短缺使它们得以抬高车价。

G.M. felt confident enough in its finances to spend $6 billion last year to buy back its own shares, a way of returning money to investors. The company has earmarked a similar amount for 2026.

通用汽车对自身财务状况充满信心，去年斥资60亿美元回购股票，以此向投资者返还资金。该公司还为2026年划拨了同等规模的资金。

“The balance sheet of G.M. has probably never been stronger,” Paul Jacobson, the company’s chief financial officer, said last month at a conference on the automobile industry organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

“通用汽车的资产负债表可能从未如此强劲，”公司首席财务官保罗·雅各布森上月在芝加哥联邦储备银行举办的一场汽车行业会议上表示。

Ford also returned money to shareholders through dividends.

福特也通过分红向股东返还资金。

Such payouts generate good will on Wall Street and may help companies raise capital later, said John Paul MacDuffie, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. But he noted that the money could be better spent on new products and technology.

宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授约翰·保罗·麦克达菲表示，此类回报能在华尔街赢得好感，或许有助于企业后续融资。但他指出，这些资金如果用于新产品和技术研发将更具价值。

“I don’t know if I fully understand the strategic logic behind the stock buybacks,” Mr. MacDuffie said. He added that U.S. carmakers had advantages, including the ability to exploit innovations from Silicon Valley in ways that Chinese carmakers cannot.

“我不太确定我完全理解股票回购背后的战略逻辑，”麦克达菲说。他还称，美国车企仍具备优势，包括能够利用硅谷的创新成果，这是中国车企难以做到的。

Carmakers say they continue to invest in electric vehicles, batteries and self-driving cars, even if the pace has slowed. G.M. has a dozen electric models, including battery-powered versions of the Chevrolet Equinox, the Chevrolet Blazer and the Cadillac Escalade IQ.

车企称，尽管步伐放缓，但它们仍在继续投资电动汽车、电池和自动驾驶技术。通用汽车已推出十余款电动车型，包括雪佛兰探界者、雪佛兰开拓者以及凯迪拉克凯雷德IQ的纯电版本。

“We continue to believe in E.V.s,” Mary T. Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, said during a conference call in January. The company is investing in battery technology and ways to manufacture electric vehicles profitably, executives say. Last year, Ford discontinued the electric F-150 Lightning pickup, but is planning to begin selling a midsize electric pickup next year for around $30,000. The truck will be able to travel 300 miles between charges. Ford sequestered the design and engineering team in California to insulate it from corporate meddling.

 “我们仍然看好电动车，”通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·博拉今年1月在一次电话会议上表示。公司高管称，通用汽车正在投资电池技术，并探索如何实现电动汽车的盈利。去年，福特停止生产电动皮卡F-150 Lightning，但计划明年开始推出一款中型电动皮卡，售价在3万美元左右。这款车充一次电可行驶近500公里。福特还将该车型的设计和工程团队集中在加州，与公司其他部门隔离，以避免受到公司内部的干扰。

The pickup will address “the core of the market in our home market where there’s not a lot of competition,” Jim Farley, Ford’s chief executive, told investors and analysts last month. He added, “The real question that I ask myself is how will the Chinese change the game.”

福特首席执行官吉姆·法利上个月对投资者和分析师表示，这款皮卡将瞄准“我们本土市场的核心需求，而这个领域目前竞争并不激烈”。他还补充说：“我真正思考的问题是，中国企业将如何改变游戏规则。”

Ford executives say they have not dialed back investment in electric vehicles, just redirected the money to products that are more likely to make a profit. In the future, the company plans to offer a new version of the Lightning that will run on battery power but also have a gasoline motor that can charge the battery when needed.

福特高管表示，公司并没有减少对电动车的投资，只是把资金转向更有可能实现盈利的产品。未来，福特计划推出一款新的Lightning版本，它仍将使用电池驱动，但会配备一台汽油发动机，在需要时为电池充电。

In Europe, Ford plans to cut costs by producing electric vehicles using technology developed by the French carmaker Renault.

在欧洲，福特计划通过采用法国汽车制造商雷诺开发的技术来生产电动车，以降低成本。

Chinese companies like BYD, Geely and SAIC are effectively banned from the United States by tariffs. But they are taking market share from Ford in places like Asia, Australia and Europe. The Chinese probably can’t be kept out of U.S. showrooms forever. Mr. Trump has mused about letting them build factories in the United States.

由于关税的原因，比亚迪、吉利、上汽等中国车企实际上被挡在了美国市场之外。但它们正在亚洲、澳大利亚和欧洲等地抢占福特的市场份额。中国汽车或许不能永远被挡在美国市场之外。特朗普已在考虑让它们在美国建厂。

Carmakers from China are often accused of unfair competition because they receive government subsidies. But there’s more to it than that, analysts say.

中国汽车制造商经常被指责进行不公平竞争，因为它们获得了政府补贴。但分析人士表示，问题不止于此。

BYD sells vehicles in China for a lot less than Tesla, which also makes cars in that country, largely by doing things like making its own batteries and other components rather than buying them, according to the Rhodium Group, a research firm. Subsidies account for only a small portion of the difference in prices of BYD and Tesla cars.

研究公司荣鼎集团表示，由于自己做电池和其他零部件而非向外采购，比亚迪在中国国内的售价比同样在中国生产的特斯拉低得多。补贴在比亚迪和特斯拉价格差异中只占很小一部分。

The Chinese also move at astonishing speed — some companies from that country can develop new models in as little as 14 months, said Mark Wakefield, a managing director at the consulting firm AlixPartners who specializes in the auto industry.

中国企业的行动速度也令人惊讶。咨询公司艾睿铂负责汽车行业的董事总经理马克·韦克菲尔德表示，一些中国公司开发一款新车型最短只需14个月。

The Chinese companies make decisions more quickly, use virtual simulations for testing and are willing to take risks that Western automakers might not, Mr. Wakefield said.

韦克菲尔德说，中国企业做决策更快，利用虚拟仿真进行测试，并且愿意承担一些西方汽车制造商可能不愿意承担的风险。

U.S. automakers realize that they need to become faster and more innovative, he said. But it’s not clear whether they can overhaul their organizations quickly enough.

他说，美国汽车制造商已经意识到自己需要变得更快、更具创新性。但目前还不清楚他们能否以足够快的速度对组织结构进行彻底改革。

“Some of the senior executives have a significant sense of urgency,” Mr. Wakefield said. “It’s just tough to translate that into revolutionary change.”

韦克菲尔德表示：“一些高管确实有很强的紧迫感，但要把这种紧迫感转化为革命性的改变，却非常困难。”