
For President Trump, the first day of his visit to Beijing was all about the personal relationship between him and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader.
对特朗普总统而言,他访问北京的第一天完全围绕着他与中国领导人习近平之间的个人关系展开。
“You’re a great leader,” he told his host, whom he has often said he admires for his “powerful” control over a nation of 1.4 billion people. “I say it to everybody.”
“您是一位伟大的领导人,”他对东道主说道。他经常表示,自己钦佩习近平对14亿人口国家的“强有力”控制。“我对每个人都这么说。”
Mr. Xi, unsurprisingly, spent little time Thursday on flattery. Once the 21-gun salute and precision-marching by units of the People’s Liberation Army were finished, the disciplined Chinese leader plunged right away into setting boundaries for the two countries’ relations. The red line was Taiwan, he said, making it abundantly clear that Mr. Trump’s effort at rapprochement could crash on takeoff if he interferes with China’s long-term effort to take control of the self-governing island.
不出意外,周四习近平几乎没花时间在恭维上。在21响礼炮和中国人民解放军部队精准的仪仗表演结束后,这位沉稳自律的中国领导人立即切入正题,为两国关系设定边界。他明确表示,台湾是红线,并清楚地警告:如果特朗普干涉中国长期以来控制这个自治岛屿的努力,那么他试图改善中美关系的努力很可能胎死腹中。
“The U.S. must handle the Taiwan issue with utmost caution,” he said according to a readout from Xinhua, China’s official news agency. The warning came just minutes into his public remarks in the Great Hall of the People, the center of power for the People’s Republic starting just a decade into Mao’s revolution. For Mr. Xi, it was all about setting boundaries, from the start.
根据中国官方通讯社新华社发布的通报,习近平说:“美方务必慎之又慎处理台湾问题。”这一警告是在人民大会堂——毛泽东革命仅十年后建起的中华人民共和国权力中心——的公开讲话最初几分钟里发出的。对习近平而言,从一开始就设定边界至关重要。
The moment seemed to capture the new equilibrium between the two adversaries. Mr. Xi arrived highly scripted, leaving no doubt that for all of China’s problems — deflation, depopulation, the bursting of the real estate bubble — the moment when China acts as a peer superpower had arrived.
这一刻似乎捕捉到了两个对手之间的一种新的均势状态。习近平的行程经过精心设计,毫不怀疑地表明:尽管中国面临通缩、人口减少、房地产泡沫破裂等诸多问题,但中国作为平等超级大国的时刻已经到来。
At every turn, at least as he began his two-day trip to China, Mr. Trump sounded conciliatory, the exact opposite of his portrayals of China in public appearances back home, where during his presidential campaigns he has talked about the country as a job-stealer and national security threat. Mr. Xi, while smiling and welcoming to Mr. Trump, was quietly more confrontational — especially on Taiwan, where he delivered an unequivocal warning.
至少在特朗普为期两天的访华之行伊始,他处处流露出和解的姿态,这与他回国公开场合中对中国的描述完全相反——在总统竞选期间,他一直将中国描述为抢走就业机会的国家安全威胁。习近平虽然面带微笑、欢迎特朗普,但私下里却更为强硬——尤其是在台湾问题上,他发出了明确无误的警告。
The gap spoke directly to the new level of confidence and authority Mr. Xi has adapted in his public speech, despite his challenges with the domestic economy, as he watches the United States plunge into conflict with Iran, another Middle East confrontation with no easy exit.
这种差异直接反映出习近平在公开讲话中展现出的新的自信与权威,尽管中国国内经济面临挑战,但他也看到美国正陷入与伊朗的冲突——另一场中东对抗,且没有容易的退出路径。
周四,特朗普与习近平在北京天坛。
The Chinese president designed the day meticulously, down to a visit to the Temple of Heaven, the Ming dynasty complex not far from the Forbidden City. As Mr. Trump sat in the 13th-century wonder, he got a history lesson from the Chinese leader, tailored to echo the modern era.
这位中国领导人精心设计了这一天的行程,包括参观天坛——一座离紫禁城不远的明代建筑群。特朗普坐在这座13世纪瑰奇建筑中,听了一堂中国领导人的历史课,这堂课被特意调整,以呼应当代现实。
At his toast at a televised State Banquet on Thursday night, Mr. Trump came with a lesson of his own, describing links between China and the United States that went back to the Empress of China, the ship that took a 14-month journey in 1783 to open trade and bring the first American diplomats to what was then known as Canton, now called Guangzhou.
在周四晚上播出的国宴祝酒环节,特朗普带来了他自己的历史课。他描述了中美两国之间的联系,可以追溯到“中国皇后号”商船——这艘船在1783年花了14个月航行以开辟贸易,并将首批美国外交官带到当时的Canton(今天的广州)。
“We’ve gotten along when there were difficulties, we worked it out,” Mr. Trump said. But even then he cast relations in personal terms, making clear that the huge divisions between the two countries had to be solved by two strong leaders.
“我们在遇到困难时都能相处融洽,我们会解决它,”特朗普说。但即便如此,他仍将两国关系归结为个人层面,明确表示两国之间的巨大分歧必须由两位强有力的领导人来解决。
“I would call you, and you would call me whenever we had a problem, people don’t know, whenever we had a problem,” he said. “We worked that out very quickly, and we’re going to have a fantastic future together.”
“只要有问题,我会给你打电话,你也会给我打电话——人们不知道这一点——只要有问题,”他说。“我们会很快解决它,我们将共同拥有一个美好的未来。”
For his part, Mr. Xi returned to his mantra: to keep from turning competition into conflict, the two nations must keep from falling into the “Thucydides Trap.”
习近平则重申了他的核心理念:为了防止竞争演变为冲突,两国必须避免陷入“修昔底德陷阱”。
(The trap, popularized by the Harvard professor Graham Allison in his book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap,” comes when a rising power challenges a status-quo power, often leading to war. “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that rise engendered in Sparta,” the ancient Greek historian Thucydides wrote, “that made war inevitable”.)
(这一概念因哈佛大学教授格雷厄姆·艾利森的著作《注定一战——中美能避免修昔底德陷阱吗?》而流传开来,指崛起大国挑战守成大国时常导致战争。古希腊历史学家修昔底德写道:“正是雅典的崛起及其在斯巴达引发的恐惧,使得战争不可避免。”)
Mr. Xi proposed a familiar solution: ban talk of competition between the No. 1 and No. 2 economic superpowers — a regular staple of the Biden White House — and focus on “stability,’’ a governing characteristic rarely associated with Mr. Trump.
习近平提出了一个熟悉的解决方案:禁止谈论世界第一和第二大经济体之间的竞争(这是拜登白宫的常规话题),而是专注于“稳定”——一个很少与特朗普联系在一起的治理特征。
“The common interests between China and the United State outweigh our differences,” Mr. Xi said, according to state media. “Stability in China-U.S. relations is a boon to the world.”
根据官方媒体报道,习近平表示:“中美之间的共同利益大于分歧,中美各自成功是彼此的机遇,中美关系稳定是世界的利好。”
周四,特朗普总统出席在北京举行的国宴。
But unlike Mr. Trump, he explored the alternative scenario.
但与特朗普不同,他探讨了另一种可能的情景。
“If handled poorly, the two countries will collide or even clash, putting the entire U.S.-China relationship in an extremely dangerous situation,” he said, a clear reference to Taiwan, according to the readout.
根据官方媒体的通报,他在明确谈及台湾问题时说,“处理不好,两国就会碰撞甚至冲突,将整个中美关系推向十分危险的境地。”
If much of this sounds familiar, it was. Mr. Xi has go-to homilies, part of his philosopher-king approach to ruling over China. And in this summit he invented one new one: He said he agreed with Mr. Trump on “a new vision of building a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability.”
如果这一切听起来很熟悉,那是因为确实如此。习近平有自己惯用的说教,这是他以“哲人圣君”方式统治中国的一部分。在这次峰会上,他还发明了一个新的说法:他表示同意特朗普关于“构建‘中美建设性战略稳定关系’”的想法。
As Rush Doshi, a China scholar at Georgetown University noted, that sounded like an effort “to lock in a ‘truce’ favorable to them, and they want to do so beyond Trump, with this post-trade war détente setting the base line.”
正如乔治城大学中国问题学者杜如松(Rush Doshi)所指出的,这听起来像是努力“锁定一个对他们有利的‘休战’协议,他们希望将其延续到特朗普之后,以这场贸易战后的缓和作为基准线。”
Future disputes over China’s excess manufacturing capacity or rebuilding American military capability in the Indo-Pacific could be declared “a violation of this frame,” he wrote on X.
杜如松在X平台上写道,未来关于中国制造产能过剩或美国在印太地区重建军事能力的争端,都可能被宣布为“违反这一框架”。
The contrast with Mr. Trump’s style — where summits are first and foremost for instant “deals,” usually ones he can boast will provide jobs or sales — is often jarring. Mr. Trump, for example, brought a group of business executives, whose presence he said was intended to show “respect” for China while seeking market access.
这与特朗普的风格形成了鲜明对比——对他而言,峰会首先是为了即时达成“交易”,通常是他可以吹嘘能带来就业或销售的交易。例如,特朗普带了一群企业高管,他说他们的出席是为了展示对中国的“尊重”,同时寻求市场准入。
It had a familiar ring to it, the days when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush brought business leaders to explore the promise of the Chinese market, often for the first time. But Mr. Trump’s delegation came with decades of experience, much of it bitter. Some of them were survivors of the battles over intellectual property theft and sharp restrictions intended to favor local Chinese industry.
这让人想起比尔·克林顿和小布什时代,他们曾带领商界领袖探索中国市场的潜力,通常是首次尝试。但特朗普的代表团拥有数十年的经验,其中很多是苦涩的。他们中的一些人是知识产权盗窃斗争的幸存者,也经历过旨在偏袒中国本土产业的严格限制。
埃隆·马斯克周三抵达北京。
Mr. Xi did not bring an equivalent group. There were no executives from BYD, the huge Chinese carmaker trying to figure out how to do business in the United States, or DeepSeek, the innovative artificial intelligence firm at the heart of the battle with A.I. firms in the United States.
习近平没有带对等的团体。无论试图在美国开展业务的大型中国车企比亚迪,还是与美国AI公司竞争前沿的创新人工智能企业深度求索,都没有高管在场。
There were other discordant notes, heard just beneath the noise of the clinking glasses and optimistic toasts. In contrast to the Chinese readout, the American account, released by the White House, talked about cracking down on fentanyl precursors, a long-running issue with China, and buying American agricultural goods. It did not mention Taiwan, or China’s restrictions on rare earths, or its rapid nuclear weapons buildup.
在酒杯碰撞和乐观的祝酒辞中,还能听到其他不和谐的音符。与中方报道不同,白宫发布的美方版本谈到了打击芬太尼前体(这是中美长期存在的问题)以及购买美国农产品。它没有提到台湾、中国对稀土的限制,或中国快速的核武器建设。
The White House also described the United States and China as aligned on the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and keep it free of Iranian tolls. All that was true, but ignored the deeper complication: despite American entreaties, China is unlikely to deploy whatever influence it has with the Iranians for free. What the price might be is unclear.
白宫还描述称,美国和中国在需要重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并使其免受伊朗通行费影响的问题上立场一致。这些都是事实,但忽略了更深层的复杂性:尽管美国提出请求,中国不太可能无偿动用其对伊朗的影响力。代价可能是什么,目前尚不清楚。
The real test of how these two men debate their differences might come on Friday morning, when Mr. Trump is scheduled for much smaller meetings with Mr. Xi. It is the kind of session he likes best: leader to leader. And once he leaves Chinese airspace, he seems likely to present his preferred version of those talks.
这两位领导人如何辩论分歧的真正考验可能将在周五上午到来——届时特朗普将与习近平举行规模更小的会晤。这是他最喜欢的那种形式:领导人对领导人。而一旦他离开中国领空,他似乎很可能以自己偏好的版本来呈现这些会谈内容。
The Chinese government will likely be more circumspect.
中国政府则很可能更为谨慎。