With one missile fired over the Pacific Ocean from a submarine lurking off China’s coast, the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, has proclaimed his determination to build a full suite of nuclear weapons, including sea-based missiles that have long been Beijing’s weak spot.

一艘潜伏在中国沿海的潜艇向太平洋发射了一枚导弹，中国最高领导人习近平由此宣告其打造一个完整核武器体系的决心，其中包括长期以来一直被视为北京弱项的潜射导弹。

The missile test on Monday came after China’s military has been battered for years by mass removals of commanders accused of corruption and disloyalty. But Chinese media declared that the test showed the country remained on track to create a full nuclear triad; that is, a range of land-, air- and sea-based weapons that could give Beijing a stronger hand in a regional crisis or war with the United States.

在周一举行此次导弹试验之前，中国军队多年来因大批被控腐败和不忠的指挥官遭到清洗而饱受打击。但中国媒体宣称，这次试验表明该国在构建完整的“三位一体”——即涵盖陆基、空基和海基的武器体系——核打击力量方面依然走在正轨上，这让北京在地区危机或与美国的战争中有了更多筹码。

Chinese officials have been muted about the test and its implications. Not the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper controlled by the Communist Party.

中国官方对此次试验及其影响一直保持低调。但由中共控制的中国报纸《环球时报》没有这样做。

“Our national nuclear triad had another upgrade,” the paper said in an article on Tuesday.

该报在周二的一篇文章中称：“我国‘三位一体’核力量再升级。”

“The Liberation Army’s sea-based nuclear force is capable of carrying out stable, reliable strategic counterstrikes from anywhere in the vast open seas of the Pacific Ocean,” it said, citing a Chinese expert.

报道援引一位中国专家的观点称：“解放军海基核力量可在太平洋广阔公海任意点位，实施稳定、可靠的战略反击。”

That claim is hyperbole: China is still some way from operating nuclear-armed submarines undetected and wherever it likes. Even so, the test indicated that China is expanding its undersea nuclear ambitions, and shedding its reluctance to test missiles in international skies and oceans, despite the scrutiny and alarm such exercises set off, several experts said.

这一说法有些夸大其词：中国目前尚做不到在不被察觉的情况下随心所欲地让携带核武器的潜艇出海作业。尽管如此，多位专家表示，这次试验表明中国正在扩大其水下核雄心，并正在摆脱在国际领空和海域测试导弹的顾虑，而不顾此类演习所引发的密切注视与警惕。

“Most basically, China needed to technically validate its newest submarine-launched ballistic missile capability. But there was a broader message to the world — China now has a fully operational nuclear triad,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and a former China director in the National Security Council under President Obama. “China is probing the boundaries of U.S. defense strategy.”

“最根本的是，中国需要从技术上验证其最新的潜射弹道导弹能力。但这也是向世界传递一个更广泛的信息——中国现在已经拥有了完全具备作战能力的‘三位一体’核力量，”乔治城大学教授、奥巴马总统时期前白宫国家安全委员会中国事务主任麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)表示。“中国正在试探美国国防战略的边界。”

For decades, China kept a relatively modest nuclear arsenal — much smaller than those of the United States and Russia — and has usually tested its nuclear-capable missiles within its own land borders. This was only the third time that China has conducted a long-range test of a missile across the Pacific. The first was in 1980; the most recent in 2024.

几十年来，中国一直维持着相对精简的核武库——远小于美国和俄罗斯的规模——并且通常在其陆地国境之内测试具备核能力的导弹。这仅仅是中国第三次跨越太平洋进行长程导弹试验。第一次是在1980年；最近一次是在2024年。

But as China’s nuclear weapons multiply and diversify, and as Beijing grows more confident in its global status, more tests may come. This time, China’s leaders also may have been happy to send a warning to the region and to Washington: that Beijing is capable of projecting power in new and intimidating ways, some experts said.

但一些专家表示，随着中国核武器的数量激增和种类多元化，以及北京对自身全球地位的信心日益增强，未来可能会有更多的试验。这一次，中国领导人可能也乐于向该地区和华盛顿发出警告：北京有能力以一种全新的、具有威慑力的方式来彰显力量。

The location of the submarine that launched the missile was not immediately clear. Chinese maritime authorities had released notices on Monday warning about possible hazards in the seas off China’s northern and southeastern coasts.

发射导弹的潜艇具体位置目前尚不完全清楚。中国海事部门曾于周一发布航行警告，提醒注意中国北部和东南部沿海海域可能存在的危险。

Officials from two governments in the region said on the condition of anonymity that initial assessments indicated the missile was launched from the South China Sea, off southern China.

这两个地区的政府官员在要求匿名的情况下表示，初步评估显示导弹是从中国南部的南海海域发射的。

But other experts said the missile may have been launched near the Bohai Bay on the northeastern Chinese coast and arced southeast for more than 4,300 miles, landing in the sea off the Solomon Islands. (The Japanese government said the missile did not pass through Japan’s airspace or exclusive economic zone.)

但另一些专家表示，该导弹可能是从中国东北沿海的渤海湾附近发射的，并向东南方向飞行了4300多英里，最终坠落在所罗门群岛附近的海域。（日本政府表示，该导弹并未通过日本领空或专属经济区。）

“China is telling the world that it has a very large stick with which it will be able to dominate the Pacific,” said Justin Bassi, a former national security adviser in the Australian government who is now the executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.

位于堪培拉的澳大利亚战略政策研究所执行所长、前澳大利亚政府国家安全顾问贾斯汀·巴希表示：“中国是在告诉世界，它拥有一根非常粗大的大棒，足以用来在太平洋称霸。”

He noted China’s recent ire at Japan and Australia, including over Canberra’s recent security agreement with Fiji in the Pacific.

他提到了中国近期对日本和澳大利亚表达的愤怒，其中包括针对堪培拉最近与太平洋国家斐济签署的安全协议。

“China does not want the Australian and Japanese counter-influence, interference and coercion approach to be taken up by others in the region,” Mr. Bassi said.

“中国不希望澳大利亚和日本这种对抗影响力、干涉与遏制的手段被该地区的其他国家所效仿，”巴希说。

Racing to Catch Up

迎头赶上

Still, such tests take months of preparation, and the latest one was above all driven by the Chinese government’s desire to narrow the United States’ lead in sea-based nuclear forces, experts said. Even as China has rapidly expanded its land-based long-range missiles, its nuclear capabilities at sea have lagged.

专家们指出，尽管此类试验需要数月的准备时间，但最近这一次试验的动机主要还是源于中国政府渴望缩小与美国在海基核力量上的差距。尽管中国迅速扩张了其陆基远程导弹，但海上核能力一直相对滞后。

Nuclear submarines rely on quiet stealth for their menacing power; their goal is to evade detection, forcing adversaries to fear an unexpected strike from the depths. But for decades, Chinese nuclear submarines were notoriously noisy, sending out rumbles and squeaks that other navies could detect with sonar.

核潜艇的威慑力取决于它静音匿踪的能力，追求的是规避探测，迫使对手忌惮来自深海的未知突袭。但在过去几十年里，中国的核潜艇因噪音巨大而闻名，发出的轰鸣与吱嘎声很容易被其他国家的海军通过声呐探测到。

China is still some distance from matching the standards set by the United States and Russia in submarine stealth and submarine-based nuclear missiles.

相比美国和俄罗斯在潜艇隐身及潜射核导弹方面树立的标准，中国还有一些距离。

But the country has been investing heavily to close the gap, said Bruce Jones, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and the author of a forthcoming book, Sub War, about global undersea rivalry.

但布鲁金斯学会学者、即将出版的关于全球水下竞争的新书《潜艇战争》(Sub War)的作者布鲁斯·琼斯表示，中国一直在投入巨资以缩小这一差距。

“China is racing to catch up in quality, and poised to surge ahead in numbers,” he said. “It’s likely we’ll see more tests.”

“中国正在质量上奋起直追，并准备在数量上实现超越，”他说。“我们很可能会看到更多的试验。”

China has about 14 nuclear-powered submarines, including six that are nuclear-capable, Rear Adm. Mike Brookes, the commander of the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, told a congressional commission in March. The United States has around 70 nuclear submarines. But China has ramped up its production rates.

美国海军情报局局长麦克·布鲁克斯少将在今年3月向一个国会委员会表示，中国拥有大约14艘核动力潜艇，其中六艘具备核打击能力。美国拥有大约70艘核潜艇。但中国已经提升了其潜艇的生产速度。

It is unclear what submarine China fired the missile from, and what kind of missile it was. Beijing rarely releases such details.

目前尚不清楚中国是从哪艘潜艇上发射了这枚导弹，也不清楚是哪种类型的导弹。北京极少公布此类细节。

去年北京举行的重大阅兵上展示的巨浪-3型洲际弹道导弹。五角大楼曾表示，这些导弹已经装备在了094型潜艇上。

Some experts believe that the submarine was the Type 094 — China’s most advanced model in wide use — and that the missile was probably a JL-3, an intercontinental ballistic missile that China displayed at a big military parade last year. The Pentagon has said that the missiles have been installed on Type 094 submarines.

一些专家认为是094型潜艇——中国目前广泛使用的最先进型号——而所射导弹很可能是巨浪-3型，这是一种中国在去年一场重大阅兵式上展示过的洲际弹道导弹。五角大楼曾表示，这些导弹已经装备在了094型潜艇上。

China is building a new generation of submarines that will be stealthier than the Type 094, possibly approaching capabilities achieved by an advanced Russian model, Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, wrote in a study published this week.

美国海军战争学院教授安德鲁·埃里克森在本周发表的一项研究中写道，中国正在建造新一代潜艇，它们的隐身能力将比094型更强，可能已经接近俄罗斯的先进潜艇的能力。

“China’s quieting approach remains imperfect but is determined, comprehensive and improving,” Professor Erickson wrote, referring to the technology used to make submarines hard to detect. He emphasized his conclusions were his own, and did not represent the Naval War College or the U.S. Navy.

“中国的静音手段虽然仍不完美，但其执行很坚定、全面，并且在不断进步，”埃里克森在谈到使潜艇难以被探测的技术时写道。他强调，这些结论仅代表其个人观点，并不代表海军战争学院或美国海军。

More Tests Are Likely

未来可能进行更多试验

China is likely to conduct more testing of its submarine-based nuclear missiles by firing them into the Pacific Ocean, despite the criticism Monday’s test drew from Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Australia and the United States, said several experts.

几位专家表示，尽管周一的试验引来了日本、菲律宾、台湾、澳大利亚和美国的批评，但中国未来仍可能会通过向太平洋发射导弹来对其潜射核导弹进行更多测试。

“China conducts a lot of missile tests, but the overwhelming majority of them go toward the interior,” William Alberque, the former director of an arms control and disarmament center under NATO, wrote by email.

“中国进行了大量的导弹试验，但其中绝大多数都是面向其内陆腹地发射的，”北约前军控与裁军中心主任威廉·阿尔伯克通过电子邮件写道。

The United States conducts five to 10 tests of its Minuteman and Trident missiles over the Pacific every year, according to Mr. Alberque. Russia’s tests are conducted mostly from the Barents Sea, flying toward east Russia.

据阿尔伯克称，美国每年会在太平洋上空对其“民兵”和“三叉戟”导弹进行五到10次试验。而俄罗斯的试验主要是在巴伦支海进行，并飞向俄罗斯东部。

位于东北部城市青岛的中国海军博物馆。中国一直在投入巨资，以缩小其与竞争对手在潜艇能力上的差距。

China has previously conducted secret tests of submarine missiles in the Bohai Bay area, Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, wrote in an assessment of Monday’s test. Long-range tests allow missiles to be tested in conditions that resemble the heat and turbulence of real wartime trajectories.

亚洲协会中国分析中心高级研究员莱尔·莫里斯在对周一试验的一份评估中写道，中国此前曾在渤海湾地区进行过潜射导弹的秘密试验。长程试验能够让导弹在类似于真实战时轨迹的高温与气流扰动条件下接受检验。

The likely launch location of China’s latest test fits with its emerging “bastion” strategy for its submarine-launched nuclear missiles, wrote Mr. Alberque, now a senior analyst at Pacific Forum. Under that approach, China’s submarines lurk in seas close to its coast, protected by cordons of defense against detection and attack. From there, China’s JL-3 submarine-launched nuclear missiles could strike large parts of the U.S. west coast.

现任太平洋论坛高级分析师的阿尔伯克写道，中国的最新试验的可能发射阵位符合其正在成形的潜射核导弹“堡垒”战略。在这种策略下，中国的潜艇潜伏在靠近其海岸的海域，有层层防探测和防攻击保护。中国的巨浪-3型潜射核导弹可以在这些海域发射，打击美国西海岸的大部分地区。

In those bastions, Mr. Alberque wrote, “they’re reasonably sure they can’t be ‘got’ by the U.S. if they had to fire off the big beasts.”

阿尔伯克写道，在这些堡垒中，“他们有充分理由相信，如果必须发射这些‘庞然大物’，是不会被美国‘抓到’的。”