The global economy is set to slow sharply in 2026 after the war with Iran disrupted energy supply chains and triggered a fresh bout of inflation, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.

国际货币基金组织周三警告称，在与伊朗的战争扰乱了能源供应链并引发新一轮通货膨胀之后，全球经济将在2026年大幅放缓。

The forecasts reflect the damaging toll from the decision by the United States and Israel to attack Iran this year. Those attacks spurred Iranian retaliation on energy infrastructure in the region, destabilizing a world economy that had already been rocked by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

该预测反映了今年美国和以色列决定袭击伊朗所造成的破坏性代价。袭击促使伊朗对该地区的能源基础设施实施报复，令已因新冠大流行和俄罗斯在乌克兰战争而动荡不安的世界经济进一步陷入不稳定。

Global output growth is poised to fall to 3 percent in 2026 from 3.5 percent last year, according to an update for the I.M.F.’s World Economic Outlook. That is slightly slower than the fund’s April projection of 3.1 percent growth, underscoring the protracted nature of the conflict.

根据国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》的最新报告，2026年全球产出增长率将从去年的3.5%降至3%。这略低于该基金组织4月份预测的3.1%的增长率，凸显了冲突的长期性。

The forecasts remain subject to considerable uncertainty. Attacks on tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week have raised doubts about the durability of the recent cease-fire between the United States and Iran, and on Tuesday the United States rescinded a waiver on sanctions that would have allowed more Iranian oil to be sold on global markets.

该预测仍存在相当大的不确定性。本周伊朗袭击试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，令人们开始怀疑最近美伊停火协议的持久性；周二，美国取消了一项原本将允许更多伊朗石油在全球市场销售的制裁豁免。

President Trump cast doubt on the truce at a NATO meeting in Turkey on Wednesday when he said, “I think it’s over.”

周三，特朗普总统在土耳其举行的北约会议上对休战表示怀疑，他说：“我认为这已经结束了。”

Shipping traffic through the strait was obstructed for months, sending energy prices higher and pushing up consumer prices around the world. The I.M.F. expects global inflation will rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 from 4.1 percent in 2025 because of elevated commodity prices.

该海峡的航运交通受阻长达数月，导致能源价格上涨，并推高全球消费者物价。国际货币基金组织预计，由于大宗商品价格高企，全球通胀率将从2025年的4.1%升至2026年的4.7%。

Although the 2026 outlook is slightly darker, the I.M.F. said the global economy was proving to be relatively resilient. Global growth in the first quarter of the year was stronger than projected, as renewable energy helped blunt the effect of higher oil prices and investments in artificial intelligence powered output.

尽管2026年前景略显黯淡，但国际货币基金组织表示，全球经济正展现出相对较强的韧性。由于可再生能源帮助减弱了高油价的影响，以及对人工智能的投资推动了产出增长，今年第一季度的全球增长强于预期。

“The global economy as a whole has, so far, weathered the shock from the war better than feared,” the I.M.F. economists wrote in the report.

“到目前为止，整体全球经济抵御战争冲击的表现好于预期，”国际货币基金组织的经济学家在报告中写道。

Oil-producing countries in the Middle East have been hit hardest by the war and are expected to face sharp contractions this year.

中东的产油国受战争打击最为严重，预计今年将面临大幅经济收缩。

The outlook for Iran, however, was modestly upgraded since April as U.S. sanctions on its oil exports were temporarily relaxed. This week, the Trump administration revoked a 60-day license allowing the sale of Iranian energy products after tankers were attacked trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

然而，随着美国对其石油出口的制裁暂时放松，伊朗的前景自4月份以来略有上调。本周，在试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮遭到袭击后，特朗普政府撤销了允许销售伊朗能源产品的60天许可。

Nations that consume the most energy are also facing an output crunch from higher oil prices. Growth in India is expected to decline to 6.4 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2025. Output in China is projected to decline to 4.6 percent in 2026 from 5 percent last year.

消耗能源最多的国家也面临着高油价带来的产出紧缩。印度的增长率预计将从2025年的7.7%降至今年的6.4%。中国的经济增速预计将从去年的5%降至2026年的4.6%。

Output projections in the United States held steady from April at 2.3 percent, as oil exports and technology investments buttressed growth.

美国的经济增速预测与4月份持平，为2.3%，原因是石油出口和科技投资支撑了增长。

High gas prices have been a political concern in the United States, but Kevin M. Warsh, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, said last week that inflation risks had eased in the weeks since he took over. Speaking at a gathering in Europe last week, he reiterated his pledge to deliver price stability after an extended period in which the central bank had missed its 2 percent target.

高昂的汽油价格一直是美国的政治关切，但美联储新任主席凯文·沃什上周表示，自他上任以来的几周内，通胀风险有所缓解。上周在欧洲一次集会上发表讲话时，他重申了实现物价稳定的承诺——此前美联储在相当长一段时间内未能达到2%的通胀目标。

The I.M.F. urged policymakers to remain focused on price stability as they assess the effect of volatile commodity prices and growing demand for new A.I. technology.

国际货币基金组织敦促政策制定者在评估波动的大宗商品价格和对新型人工智能技术不断增长的需求所带来的影响时，继续将物价稳定作为重点。