Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year.

铁路和其他基础设施的强劲投资抵消了疲弱的消费支出和贸易顺差缩小带来的影响，中国经济在今年前三个月继续保持增长。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.3 percent from the last three months of 2025. If that pace continues through the year, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of about 5.3 percent.

中国国家统计局周四公布，今年第一季度国内生产总值环比增长1.3%。如果这一增速全年保持，中国经济年度增长率将达到约5.3%。

In comparison with the same period last year, China’s gross domestic product was 5 percent larger in the first quarter. The figures came in slightly above economists’ forecasts for 4.8 percent growth.

与去年同期相比，今年第一季度中国GDP增长5%，略高于经济学家此前预测的4.8%。

One reason this year’s growth looked stronger was that the statistical agency said Thursday that the economy was weaker in the first half of last year than previously reported. That made this year’s results look better by comparison.

今年增长数据显得较强的一个原因是，统计局周四表示，去年上半年经济表现比之前公布的更弱，这使得今年数据对比之下显得更好。

A long, steep slide in apartment prices has eroded China’s household savings, prompting many people to cut spending. Retail sales rose just 2.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and only 1.7 percent in March, considerably weaker than what most economists had expected. Car sales fell 17 percent in the quarter after the government scaled back subsidies that had driven a boom last year.

长期大幅下跌的房价侵蚀了中国家庭的储蓄，导致许多人减少支出。第一季度社会消费品零售总额同比增长仅2.4%，3月份仅增长1.7%，远低于多数经济学家的预期。由于政府缩减了去年推动汽车销售火爆的补贴，汽车销量第一季度下降17%。

That sluggishness contrasts sharply with an 8.9 percent increase in infrastructure construction investments in the first quarter from a year ago.

这种低迷与基础设施建设投资形成鲜明对比，后者在第一季度同比增长8.9%。

The service sector has been struggling. Restaurants have closed across the country, and those still open echo with empty tables. Xiao Nan Guo, a nationwide chain offering Shanghainese cuisine at premium prices, exemplifies the downturn. After peaking at 139 outlets in 2015, it quietly shuttered most of its remaining locations in early February.

服务业处境艰难。全国各地多家餐厅关闭，仍营业的餐厅也常常空桌寥寥。高端上海菜全国连锁品牌“小南国”就是这一低迷的典型。该品牌曾在2015年达到139家门店的峰值，今年2月初已悄然关闭了大部分剩余门店。

伊朗战争导致的原材料成本上涨似乎正对中国经济发展构成压力。

Exports have propped up the Chinese economy through much of its housing slump since 2021. But this time they failed to offset broader weakness after a big surge in China’s largest category of imports, computer chips.

自2021年房地产低迷以来，出口在很大程度上支撑了中国经济。但这一次，在中国最大进口品类——计算机芯片大幅激增之后，出口未能抵消更广泛的经济疲弱。

Weak demand at home has pushed Chinese companies to seek growth abroad. Exports grew during the first three months of this year at their fastest quarterly clip in more than four years, led by electric car exports, up 78 percent, and a 50 percent rise in shipments of lithium batteries. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, said overseas sales were keeping factories busy across China.

国内需求疲软促使中国企业转向海外寻求增长。今年前三个月，出口增速创下四年多以来最快的季度增速，其中电动汽车出口增长78%，锂电池出货量增长50%。标普全球评级亚洲及太平洋首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示，海外销售让中国各地的工厂保持忙碌。

“It has been robust exports that have been a key driver of industrial production and G.D.P.,” he said.

“强劲的出口一直是工业生产和GDP增长的关键驱动力，”他说。

It is unclear if export strength will last. Tariffs and rising raw material costs from the war in Iran appeared to weigh on the Chinese economy in March. Chinese officials are expected to press for relief from U.S. tariffs at a summit next month in Beijing between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

目前尚不清楚出口强劲势头能否持续。关税和伊朗战争导致的原材料成本上升，似乎在3月份对中国经济造成了拖累。预计中国官员将在下个月于北京举行的特朗普与习近平峰会期间要求美国减轻关税。

由于塑料成本上升挤压制造商利润，中国的玩具和鞋类出口已出现下滑。​

China remains better positioned than other major economies to weather disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the war in Iran because of its large stockpiles of fossil fuels and dominant position in renewable energy. But China’s March trade data showed some unexpected shifts that sharply narrowed the country’s trade surplus.

由于拥有大量化石燃料储备，并在可再生能源领域占据主导地位，中国比其他主要经济体更有能力应对伊朗战争导致的石油和天然气供应中断。但中国3月份的贸易数据出现了一些意外变化，导致贸易顺差大幅收窄。

China’s exports of toys and footwear, once strong categories, fell as higher plastic costs from the war in the Middle East squeezed manufacturers. Chemical companies have continued raising prices, suggesting further pressure in the months ahead.

中国曾经强势的玩具和鞋类出口出现下降，因为中东战争推高了塑料成本，挤压了制造商利润。化工企业继续提高产品价格，表明未来几个月压力将进一步加大。

Exports of rare-earth metals also plummeted in March. Beijing severely restricted shipments to Japan, amid a dispute over relations with Taiwan.

3月份稀土金属出口也大幅下滑。此前北京因在台湾问题上引起的争端，严厉限制了对日本的稀土出货。

The most notable change has been a surge in semiconductor imports, as China rapidly builds data centers for artificial intelligence. Computer chip purchases jumped in January and February and hit a record high in March, up 54 percent from a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms.

最显著的变化是半导体进口激增，这是因为中国正在快速建设人工智能数据中心。今年1月和2月芯片采购量大幅增加，3月份更是创下纪录，按美元计算同比增长54%。

中国南京一处堆场内的硫磺。过去几年，出口一直支撑着中国经济。​

A weak renminbi, China’s currency, has made computer chip imports more expensive, adding to the drag on the economy. Beijing has kept its currency weak to boost exports, making Chinese goods more competitive abroad.

人民币疲软使得计算机芯片进口成本更高，进一步拖累经济。北京刻意保持人民币偏弱，以提振出口，增强中国商品在海外的竞争力。

But that same currency weakness raises import costs. The increasing semiconductor costs also reflect heightened global demand for the computer chips needed to power A.I. While the renminbi has strengthened slightly over the past year, it remains far weaker than what economists consider its true market value.

但同样的货币疲软也推高了进口成本。半导体成本上升还反映出全球对人工智能所需芯片的需求高涨。虽然人民币过去一年略有升值，但仍远低于经济学家认为的真实市场价值。

本月，中国盐城一个宁德时代电池工厂建设工程正在进行场地准备。​

Export sectors that rely heavily on steel are thriving in China these days. Domestic steel is cheap because of chronic oversupply and reluctance to close state-owned steel mills. With other countries’ tariffs limiting direct exports of steel, manufacturers are channeling the glut into finished goods like cars and ships, which face fewer trade barriers.

目前，高度依赖钢铁的出口行业在中国表现良好。由于长期产能过剩以及不愿关闭国有钢厂，国内钢铁价格低廉。在其他国家关税限制钢铁直接出口的情况下，制造商将过剩钢铁转化为汽车、船舶等成品出口，这些产品面临的贸易壁垒较少。

Li Rongchun, who owns a small business in Yancheng supplying acetylene and oxygen to nearby shipyards, said he had more orders than he could handle. “Right now, shipyards are building a lot of oil tankers and container ships, and many foreign clients are coming,” he said.

在盐城经营一家小企业、为附近船厂供应乙炔和氧气的李荣春（音）表示，他的订单多到忙不过来。“现在船厂正在大量建造油轮和集装箱船，很多外国客户都来了，”他说。

But in another nearby town, the picture is far more bleak. A resident who gave only his family name, Shao, said that property prices at complexes in his neighborhood had dropped by more than half over the past year and that even steep discounts were not enticing buyers.

但在附近另一个小镇，情况则要惨淡得多。一位只愿透露姓邵的居民表示，他所在小区的房价在过去一年下跌超过一半，即使大幅打折也吸引不到买家。

“There are just too many empty apartments — even at very low prices, no one wants to buy them,” he said.

“空置的房子实在太多了——即使价格很低，也没人愿意买，”他说。

Residential construction has slowed sharply over the past four years, but apartment sales have declined even faster, leaving a growing glut of unsold homes and making buyers wary of committing their savings to a purchase.

过去四年，住宅建设大幅放缓，但公寓销售下滑得更快，导致未售出住房库存不断增加，也让买家对拿出积蓄购房更加谨慎。

造船业等高度依赖钢铁的出口行业，在中国正蓬勃发展，部分原因在于国内钢铁价格低廉。

Mr. Kuijs said prices were likely to keep falling this year before bottoming out next year. But with residential construction already down so much, there isn’t much room for building activity to fall further. Any stabilization would ease a major drag on growth.

高路易表示，房价今年很可能继续下跌，明年才有望触底。由于住宅建设活动已经大幅减少，进一步下降的空间已经不大。任何企稳迹象都将缓解经济增长的一大拖累。

“That drag will remain this year,” Mr. Kuijs said, “but it probably won’t be as intense as it was in previous years.”

“今年这一拖累仍将存在，”高路易说，“但可能不会像前几年那么严重了。”