As armed Chinese ships expand patrols around Taiwan, officials in Taipei are more urgently testing how they would keep fuel and other vital supplies flowing if Beijing tried to choke off the island.

随着中国武装船只不断扩大在台湾周边的巡航范围，台北方面的官员正在加紧测试：如果北京试图封锁台湾，他们要如何确保燃料和其他关键物资持续供应。

China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has in recent years rehearsed a blockade, using naval ships and military planes to practice sealing off access to Taiwan.

中国宣称台湾是其领土，近年来已多次演练对台封锁，通过海军舰艇和军机切断台湾的对外通道。

Taiwan relies on imports of fossil fuels for about 95 percent of its energy, and natural gas fuels half of its power generation. And the global shocks caused by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran have highlighted the importance of securing energy supplies.

台湾约95%的能源依赖化石燃料进口，半数的发电量来自天然气。美以对伊朗战争期间霍尔木兹海峡受阻所引发的全球冲击凸显了保障能源供应的重要性。

Officials in Taiwan are exploring whether floating gas storage and processing terminals, emergency stockpiles, or even reviving nuclear power could help keep the island running in a crisis.

台湾官员正在探讨浮式天然气储存和处理终端、应急战略储备，乃至重启核能是否有助于帮助该岛在危机中维持运转。

They have held so-called tabletop, or wargaming, exercises to address a siege scenario, and are planning to conduct drills to escort and reroute ships to port and to store and distribute supplies on Taiwan, four officials said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.

四名官员表示，相关部门已就围困情境举行了所谓桌上兵棋推演，演练为船只护航、调整航线入港，以及在台湾岛内储存和分发物资。因涉及政府内部讨论，上述官员要求匿名。

Worries about the threats posed by China have sharpened since last month, when Beijing announced its coast guard ships would conduct “routine law-enforcement patrols” in the waters east of Taiwan. That expanse of ocean matters because it is where Taiwan would most likely look for the United States and its allies to bring military and economic relief if China attacked.

对中国威胁的忧虑在上月进一步加剧，当时北京宣布，中国海警船将在台湾东部海域开展“常态化执法巡逻”。这片海域至关重要，因为一旦中国发动攻击，台湾很可能会指望美国及其盟友通过这里提供军事和经济援助。

Preparing for an Energy Squeeze

为能源封锁做准备

Keeping power plants supplied during a Chinese blockade would be daunting. Taiwan maintains at least 11 days’ worth of natural gas reserves, and has the capacity to store enough for up to 20 days.

如果中国实施封锁，要确保发电厂持续获得燃料供应将是一项艰巨任务。台湾维持着至少11天的天然气储备，并具备足够20天用量的能力。

“We’ve constantly conducted exercises on these national security topics, figuring out how to handle different scenarios,” Chen Chung-hsien, a deputy director-general of Taiwan’s Energy Administration, said in an interview. “We certainly view matters using worst-case scenarios.”

“我们一直都在对这些国安议题做演练，针对不同情境我们要怎么样处理，”台湾能源署副署长陈崇宪在接受采访时表示。“我们一定会用最坏的情况来看这个事情。”

Taiwan is exploring acquiring ships for storing and processing natural gas off shore, to provide additional capacity and for emergencies, Mr. Chen said.

陈崇贤表示，台湾正在研究采购可在近海储存和处理天然气的船舶，以增加储存能力，并备应急之需。

Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party who focuses on national security issues, said such ships could give Taiwan “more flexibility for how natural gas is received and dispatched” if China tries to seal off the island and threaten its infrastructure.

台湾执政的民进党立法委员陈冠廷长期关注国家安全议题。他表示，如果中国试图封锁台湾并威胁基础设施，这类船舶可以让台湾“增加天然气接收与调度的弹性”。

台北一场关于中国在台湾周边举行军演的新闻发布会。

But finding safer gas reception sites remains a big challenge.

然而，寻找更安全的天然气接受地点仍是一大难题。

Taiwan’s three terminals for receiving and storing liquefied natural gas are on the island’s west, where they would be highly exposed to attack or harassment from China during a crisis. The east coast is forbiddingly mountainous, with relatively narrow roads and small ports with no infrastructure for taking delivery from hulking natural gas tankers, or generating and distributing power from the gas.

台湾三座液化天然气接收和储存终端均位于岛屿西岸，一旦危机爆发，极易遭受中国的攻击或骚扰。东岸山势险峻，道路相对狭窄，港口规模较小，既无法停靠巨型天然气运输船，也缺乏利用天然气发电和输电所需的相关基础设施。

“The eastern region wouldn’t necessarily be the best solution,” said Mr. Chen, the energy official. “A floating pier on the west coast is more plausible, closer to existing power plants anyway.”

“东部不见得是个很好的办法，”能源官员陈崇贤说。“如果是浮动码头在西岸的话比较有可能，反倒是比较方便你就近接近那些存在发电厂。”

Taiwan’s government is also weighing whether to reverse its closure of nuclear power plants, which could be one source of stable power.

台湾政府也正在评估是否推翻此前关闭核电站的决定，因为核电可能成为稳定电力供应的来源之一。

Craig Singleton, the China program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said his group held a tabletop exercise about a Chinese “energy siege” of Taiwan last year with senior Taiwanese officials and company leaders. It was clear that “Taiwan urgently needed to diversify both its energy suppliers and the means by which those supplies reach the island before a crisis,” he said.

华盛顿智库保卫民主基金会中国项目高级主任克雷格·辛格尔顿表示，该机构去年曾与台湾高级官员及企业领袖共同举行了一次有关中国对台“能源封锁”的桌上推演。他说，推演结果清楚显示：“台湾迫切需要在危机爆发前，实现能源供应来源和运输方式的多元化。”

China’s Threat to Taiwan’s East

中国对台湾东部的威胁

Even as they grapple with the threat of invasion, Taiwan’s officials are preparing for a murkier kind of coercion, in which Chinese government ships warn, restrict or even board cargo vessels approaching Taiwan.

在应对入侵威胁的同时，台湾官员如今也开始为另一种更加模糊的胁迫方式做准备——中国政府船只向驶近台湾的货船发出警告、实施限制，甚至登船检查。

The ships China has positioned on Taiwan’s east coast are part of what officials call “gray zone” tactics — hardball actions that fall short of outright warfare. Such muscle-flexing is hard for Taiwan to counter without risking retaliation from China.

中国部署在台湾东海岸的船只是官员们所称的“灰色地带”战术的一部分——即未达到全面战争程度的强硬行动。面对这种炫耀武力的行为，若台湾进行反制，稍有不慎便可能招致中国的报复。

Beijing has declared its jurisdiction over the waters in that area, a claim Taiwan rejects. In an early sign of how China could use its presence to assert its claims, a Chinese government ship stationed east of Taiwan radioed three passing cargo ships to request information, including about the crew members onboard.

北京宣称对这一海域拥有管辖权，但台湾对此予以否认。关于中国会如何利用它在该海域的存在来强化主权主张，一个早期信号已经出现：一艘部署在台湾东部海域的中国政府船只曾通过无线电联系三艘经过的货轮，要求它们提供包括船员信息在内的相关资料。

“What they did east of Taiwan was partly a very initial exercise to model a quarantine, meaning an operation to inspect and possibly turn back ships at sea,” said Lai I-chung, the president of the Prospect Foundation, a foreign policy institute in Taipei.

台北外交政策智库远景基金会执行长赖怡忠表示：“他们在台湾东部所做的，某种程度上是一次初步的隔离演练，也就是在海上对船只进行检查，并可能命令其掉头返航的行动。”

China’s navy regularly places about seven or eight naval ships around Taiwan, including off the island’s east coast, according to Taiwanese security officials.

据台湾安全官员介绍，中国海军通常会在台湾周边部署约七八艘军舰，其中包括台湾以东海域。

“But now we’re also seeing more and more of the China Coast Guard,” Mr. Lai said, noting he was speaking in a personal capacity. The increased presence of the coast guard — a paramilitary force with large, heavily armed ships — would increase Beijing’s choices to put pressure on Taiwan.

“但现在我们也看到越来越多的中国海警船，”赖怡忠说，并强调这是以个人身份发言。海警是装备大型重武装船只的准军事力量，它的存在规模不断扩大，将为北京向台湾施压提供更多选项。

5月，台湾总统赖清德在台北发表执政两周年谈话。

During a tabletop simulation late last month, President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan and his senior officials worked through a scenario in which Beijing demanded that cargo ships seek its approval before approaching Taiwan and sent coast guard ships to board, inspect and seize vessels. (In 2024, a Chinese coast guard patrol briefly boarded a Taiwanese ferry.)

在上月底举行的一次兵棋推演中，台湾总统赖清德及其高级官员演练了这样一个情景：北京要求所有驶往台湾的货轮必须事先获得中国批准，并派遣海警船实施登船检查，甚至扣押船只。（2024年，中国海警曾短暂登上一艘台湾渡轮进行检查。）

Lii Wen, a Taiwanese national security official who described the exercise in a speech afterward, said that it “helped to pinpoint shortcomings in current response measures” and heightened attention on improving coordination between agencies on issues such as ensuring energy supplies. He declined a request for an interview.

台湾国家安全官员李问在随后介绍此次推演的讲话中表示，这场推演“有助于辨识现有应处措施不足之处”，并强化了各机构在确保能源供应等问题上加强协调的意识。他拒绝了本文的采访请求。

The Ministry of the Interior, which helped organize the June simulation, announced this year that it was planning disaster response drills on the east coast of Taiwan in September that would test receiving international medical teams and supplies.

协助组织今年6月推演的台湾内政部宣布，计划于今年9月在台湾东海岸举行防灾演练，测试接收国际医疗队和救援物资的能力。

Other exercises will most likely train officials from the ministries for the interior, economic affairs and agriculture to work together on distributing supplies within Taiwan. Escorting of ships approaching Taiwan would fall under its Navy and Coast Guard.

其他演练则可能侧重于训练内政部、经济部和农业部官员协调在全台分配物资。对驶近台湾船只的护航任务将由海军和海巡署承担。

China Is Ramping Up Tactics Short of War

中国正在升级低于战争门槛的战术

The Chinese coast guard ships currently off Taiwan’s east seem to be serving a mostly symbolic role for now. But that could change, Ryan D. Martinson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said in emailed comments, also speaking in his personal capacity.

目前在台湾东部海域的中国海警船只似乎主要发挥象征性作用。但这种状况可能改变，美国海军战争学院副教授瑞安·马丁森透过电子邮件发表的评论中表示。他也指出这是以个人身份发言。

“Once the ships are out there on a consistent basis, Beijing is in a better position to take more forceful actions against Taiwan,” he wrote.

“一旦这些船只持续出现在那里，北京就处于更有利的位置，可以对台湾采取更强硬的行动，”他写道。

The two coast guard ships China sent to Taiwan’s east this month weigh 3,000 and 4,000 metric tons, far larger than the coast guard boats Taiwan sent to shadow them. Ships from the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration, which regulates civilian shipping, also took part in recent actions in the same area.

本月中国派往台湾东部的两艘海警船排水量分别达到3000吨和4000吨，远远大于台湾派出进行伴航监视的海巡船。中国海事局——负责监管民用航运的政府机构——所属船只，近期也参与了该海域的相关行动。

Chinese government ships sailed near Taiwan’s main island 85 times during May and June, compared with 45 times in the same period last year, the Taiwan Coast Guard has estimated.

台湾海巡署估计，今年五六月间，中国政府船只在台湾本岛附近活动达85次，而去年同期仅为45次。

Coast guard ships come under Chinese military command and have been increasingly integrated in military exercises near Taiwan, said Julia Famularo, a lecturer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa who studies China’s maritime operations.

研究中国海上行动的夏威夷大学马诺阿分校讲师傅美珠(Julia Famularo)表示，海警船受中国军队指挥，并越来越多地参与在台湾附近的军事演习中。

The pressure from Beijing could increase before and after 2028, when Taiwan holds its next presidential election, said Taiwanese officials and experts.

台湾官员和专家表示，在2028年台湾举行下一次总统选举前后，来自北京的压力可能会增加。

“I think these gray zone measures will definitely become more and more intense,” said Jing Yuan-chou, an adjunct professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan, who studies China’s military strategy toward Taiwan.

“我觉得那个灰色地带手段的强烈程度一定会越来越高，”研究中国对台军事战略的台湾淡江大学兼任教授荆元宙表示。

“For now, they prefer nibbling away at us, piece by piece,” Mr. Jing said. “But the nibbling lays the way for if they ever want to try to devour us.”

他说：“目前，他们偏好蚕食，一步一步蚕食，而蚕食是为万一要鲸吞做准备。”