President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to meet in Beijing next week for a high-stakes summit that could shape the next stage of rivalry between the world’s two major powers.

特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平定于本周在北京举行一场事关重大的峰会，此次会晤或将决定全球两大强国下一阶段的竞争格局。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are expected to discuss the war in Iran, trade, Taiwan and other points of contention during a two-day summit beginning on Thursday. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi last met in October in South Korea, where they agreed to pause a bruising trade war in which the U.S. imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threatened to throttle the global supply of rare earths.

为期两天的峰会将于周四启幕，预计特朗普与习近平将讨论伊朗战争、贸易、台湾及其他争议议题。两人上一次会面是去年10月在韩国，当时双方同意暂停一场激烈的贸易战——当时美国对中国商品加征三位数关税，北京则威胁限制全球稀土供应。

The visit next week could determine whether an uneasy détente that has emerged since that meeting will hold.

此次访问或将决定自上次会晤后形成的脆弱缓和局面能否延续。

A lot has changed since the two leaders last met. Mr. Trump is now embroiled in a war with Iran, China’s closest partner in the Middle East, that has led to a global energy crisis and diverted U.S. military assets from Asia. The war has also depleted U.S. munitions, raising doubts among some Chinese analysts about the United States’ ability to defend Taiwan, a close partner of Washington.

两国领导人上次会面以来，局势已发生诸多变化。特朗普如今深陷与伊朗的战争，而伊朗是中国在中东最亲密的伙伴，这场冲突已引发全球能源危机，并迫使美国将军事力量从亚洲调离。战争还消耗了美国大量军火储备，令部分中国分析人士怀疑美国是否有能力保卫其亲密盟友台湾。

Mr. Xi faces his own challenges as he grapples with slower economic growth, higher energy prices and the possibility of a global recession that would hurt China’s export-reliant economy.

习近平则面临自身挑战：他正努力应对经济增速放缓、能源价格高企，以及可能爆发的全球衰退——这将重创依赖出口的中国经济。

What is on the table?

谈判议题有哪些？

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are likely to discuss trade, including possible investment in each other’s countries. Washington has been emphasizing what analysts call the “Five B’s.” These include Chinese purchases of Boeing airplanes, U.S. beef and soybeans, as well as the creation of a board of investment and a board of trade. Those two entities would carve out areas of economic exchange between the United States and China that do not raise national security concerns.

特朗普与习近平或将讨论贸易问题，包括两国间潜在的相互投资。美方一直强调所谓的“五B”：中国采购波音飞机(Boeing)、美国牛肉(beef)与大豆(soybeans)，以及设立投资委员会(board of investment)和贸易委员会(board of trade)。这两个机构将划定中美经济交流中不涉及国家安全风险的领域。

The Chinese have been emphasizing the “Three T’s”: tariffs, technology and Taiwan, which Beijing claims is part of China’s territory. Beijing is likely to push for an extension of last year’s trade truce and the loosening of export controls on advanced semiconductors that China needs to upgrade its industrial sector. Mr. Xi, who told Mr. Trump by phone in February that his country would “never allow Taiwan to be separated from China,” is likely to push Mr. Trump to dial back U.S. support for the self-governed island.

中方则强调“三T”：关税(tariffs)、科技(technology)与台湾(Taiwan)——中国宣称台湾为其领土一部分。北京或将推动延续去年的贸易休战协议，并放宽对中国升级工业部门所需先进半导体产品的出口管制。习近平于今年2月与特朗普通电话时表示，中国“永远不可能让台湾分裂出去”，他很可能将敦促特朗普减少美国对这个自治岛屿的支持。

Mr. Trump is expected to call on Beijing to persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are also expected to discuss cooperation on managing risk related to artificial intelligence.

特朗普预计将要求中国劝说伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。双方还可能讨论人工智能风险管理领域的合作。

Mr. Trump has said that he will raise the case of the Hong Kong democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who was sentenced in February to 20 years in prison for collusion and sedition. Other issues include the buildup of China’s nuclear weapons, security in the South China Sea and reducing flows of fentanyl into the United States.

特朗普已表示，将提及香港民主活动人士黎智英的案件，黎智英于今年2月因串谋及煽动罪被判处20年监禁。其他议题还包括中国核武器扩张、南海安全，以及减少芬太尼流入美国等。

What are the possible outcomes?

可能出现哪些结果？

Mr. Trump has been boastful about his relationship with Mr. Xi, whom he calls “a friend,” and is keen to announce an increase in Chinese investment in the United States.

特朗普一向吹嘘自己和习近平的关系，称其为“朋友”，并急于宣布中国增加对美投资的消息。

But expectations are not high that the two sides will reach a major economic deal or resolve their deep differences. A more likely outcome is a set of modest agreements on investment and an extension of last year’s temporary trade truce.

但外界对双方达成重大经济协议或化解深层分歧的预期并不高。更可能的结果是，双方就投资达成若干温和的共识，并延续去年达成的临时贸易休战协议。

“We probably shouldn’t expect this meeting to have particularly substantial, major breakthroughs,” said Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert at Shanghai’s Fudan University, who said the meeting would serve as a starting point for more engagement. American officials have said that the two leaders could meet four times this year.

复旦大学国际关系专家赵明昊表示：“我们不应期待此次会晤取得特别重大的突破性进展。”他认为，此次会面将成为两国进一步互动的起点。美方官员透露，两国领导人今年或举行四次会晤。

Analysts say the summit is also a way for both sides to buy themselves time to reduce reliance on the other country as competition continues. “Within China there is also still a deep sense of suspicion about the United States,” said Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

分析人士称，随着竞争持续，此次峰会也是双方为自己争取时间、降低对彼此依赖的一种方式。战略与国际研究中心中国实力项目主任、高级顾问林洋表示：“中国国内对美国仍存有根深蒂固的疑虑。”

What could go wrong?

可能出现什么问题？

Contention over the war in Iran could undermine the talks. Without naming Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi last month criticized the American president’s flouting of international law as a “return to the law of the jungle.”

与伊朗战争相关的争议有可能破坏会谈进程。上月，习近平虽未点名特朗普，但批评其无视国际法是“倒退回丛林法则”。

While China is prodding Iranian officials to negotiate with the United States, it has held back from doing more to help resolve a war that Beijing sees as Washington’s problem. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, met his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, this week in Beijing. Mr. Wang called for greater efforts to open the strait but also said China supported Iran’s “legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.”

中国虽敦促伊朗官员与美国谈判，但并未采取更多行动推动解决这场冲突——北京视其为华盛顿的问题。中国外长王毅上周在北京会见伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇，呼吁各方加大努力开放海峡，同时表示中国支持伊朗“和平利用核能的正当权利”。

But Mr. Trump said Thursday that he believes China has not provided more support for the Iranian position out of respect for his relationship with Mr. Xi.

但特朗普周四称，他认为中国之所以没有进一步支持伊朗立场，是因为尊重他与习近平之间的关系。

Both China and the United States have been strengthening their weapons of economic warfare. When the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on a Chinese refinery in April for buying Iranian oil, China ordered its companies not to comply and issued regulations giving authorities powers to investigate foreign companies and governments.

中美两国均在强化自身经济战武器。今年4月，美国财政部以购买伊朗石油为由制裁一家中国炼油厂，中国随即下令本国企业不予配合，并出台法规，授权相关部门调查外国企业及政府。