Iran, fearing that its hold over the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was gradually slipping away, risked overplaying its hand by again firing on oil tankers and potentially rekindling a major war with the United States, analysts said.

分析人士指出，因担心逐渐丧失对霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航道的控制，伊朗不惜再次向油轮开火，从而冒了过度下注的风险，这有可能会重新点燃与美国之间的一场大规模战争。

Both sides threatened on Wednesday to scuttle the Memorandum of Understanding that they had signed on June 17 to establish a blueprint for peace talks and extended a wobbly cease-fire in place since April. American warplanes carried out even more intensive attacks on scores of targets across Iran overnight, while Iran vowed to ratchet up drone and missile strikes against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.

双方在周三均威胁要废除于6月17日签署的谅解备忘录，该备忘录曾为和平谈判确立了蓝图，并延长了自4月以来一直处于不稳定状态的停火协议。美国战机连夜对伊朗境内的数十个目标发起了更为密集的袭击，而伊朗则誓言要加大对波斯湾内美国盟友的无人机和导弹袭击力度。

The basic bargain in the vaguely worded, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding was that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping in exchange for badly needed economic relief. Thornier issues, including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, were kicked down the road for further negotiations. But very little changed.

这份措辞模糊、包含14点内容的谅解备忘录的核心交易是，伊朗将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以允许商业航运，以此换取其迫切需要的经济缓解。而包括伊朗核计划去向在内的一些更为棘手的问题则被推迟到未来的谈判中。但实际情况几乎没有任何改变。

“The M.O.U. increasingly looked like a mirage,” said Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran analyst and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The view from Tehran is that the U.S. is engaged in a concerted effort to take control of the Strait out of Iran’s hands, to weaken its position in Lebanon and to regain its own strength in order to put even more pressure on Iran or to go back to war.”

“这份谅解备忘录越来越像是一个海市蜃楼，”资深伊朗问题分析师、约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院教授瓦里·纳斯尔表示。“德黑兰方面的看法是，美国正致力于通过协同努力，将海峡的控制权从伊朗手中夺走，以削弱其在黎巴嫩的势力，恢复自身实力，从而对伊朗施加更大的压力或重新开战。”

As the 60-day clock on the agreement ticked away, Iran grew increasingly frustrated that the U.S. Navy was encouraging maritime traffic to take a southern route along the coast of Oman rather than respecting Iranian demands that all traffic register with its newly minted Hormuz transit authority, a precursor to charging fees. Traffic last weekend was about one-third of the prewar level of more than 100 ships daily, split evenly between the Iranian and Omani sides of the waterway, according to Kpler, which tracks marine traffic.

随着该协议的60天倒计时的进行，伊朗变得越来越不满美国海军的做法，后者一直在鼓励海上交通采取沿阿曼海岸的南部航线，无视伊朗提出的所有通行船只必须在其新成立的霍尔木兹运输管理局登记的要求，这种登记意味着今后可能会收费。追踪海上交通的机构开普勒的数据显示，上周末的交通量约为战前水平（每日100多艘船只）的三分之一，水道的伊朗侧和阿曼侧占比相当。

In addition, the United States was working to conclude a separate peace between Lebanon and Israel that would include the long-elusive goal of disarming Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy force in Lebanon. Finally, in public discussions about financial aid, the scale kept shrinking.

此外，美国还正致力于促成黎巴嫩与以色列之间单独达成和平，其中将包括将黎巴嫩真主党——伊朗在黎巴嫩的主要代理人武装——解除武装这一长期难以实现的目标。最后，在关于财政援助的公开讨论中，援助规模一直在缩水。

Instead, even amid the weeklong funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader killed in the war in February, the Iranians decided to strike rather than wait for their leverage to dissipate, analysts said. Projectiles hit three tankers transiting the strait on Tuesday, although Iran did not claim responsibility.

分析人士指出，伊朗人因此转而决定发动袭击，而不是坐视自己的筹码消失，尽管该国正在为2月战争中丧生的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊举行持续数周的葬礼。周二，三艘正在穿过海峡的油轮被击中，但伊朗并未宣称对此负责。

The perception by Iran that it had bested the United States and Israel in the war earlier this year likely helped lead to the renewed confrontation, analysts said.

分析人士表示，伊朗认为自己在今年早些时候的战争中击败了美国和以色列，这种认知可能促成了对抗的重启。

本周在德黑兰举行的葬礼游行期间，哀悼者们聚集在街头，手中举着在战争中丧生的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊以及他的继任者莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的照片。

“Having withstood this pummeling from the U.S. and Israel, they are probably feeling quite secure,” said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who has advised both Republican and Democratic administrations on Middle East policy. “I think the timing of the attacks, coinciding with these funeral ceremonies, demonstrates a bit of triumphalism on the part of the regime that they finally, essentially extricated themselves from the war. They’re able to bury their dead, and they’re still firing back. There’s a message in that for sure.”

“在顶住了来自美国和以色列的如此沉重的打击后，他们现在可能感觉相当有把握，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会高级研究员苏珊·马洛尼表示，她曾就中东政策向两党政府提供过咨询。“袭击发生的时间恰逢这些葬礼仪式，我认为这是伊朗政权的某种胜利宣示，即他们终于从战争中基本解脱了出来。他们能够埋葬死者，而且依然在开火反击。这里面肯定传递出了某种信息。”

Even if shipping had flowed freely before the war, the message from Iran was that it intended to enforce a newfound chokehold over the strait, analysts said. The United States, which had lifted oil sanctions against Iran that had been in place for decades, immediately reimposed them.

分析人士指出，在战前航运可以自由通行时，伊朗就已经表现出有意对该海峡实施一种全新的卡脖子式控制。美国原本已经取消了实施数十年的伊朗石油制裁，结果因此立即恢复制裁。

Iran professed not to care. “Revenue is subordinate to control,” Majid Shakeri, an Iranian economist and adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Parliament speaker and lead negotiator, said on state television. “Either we hold onto the strait, or every single one of us becomes martyrs for it.”

伊朗则表现出并不在乎的态度。“控制比收入更重要，”伊朗经济学家、议长兼首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫的顾问马吉德·沙克里在国家电视台上面表示。“要么我们守住海峡，要么我们每一个人都为此成为烈士。”

Still, both sides make a habit of fierce rhetoric and bluster, analysts noted, and tend to use warfare as a form of negotiation. Mr. Trump did not entirely dismiss the idea of getting negotiations back on track.

不过分析人士也注意到，双方都有发表激烈言辞和进行恐吓的习惯，并且往往将战争作为谈判的一种形式。特朗普并未完全排除让谈判重新回到正轨的想法。

Ultra hard-liners in Iran have long assailed the very idea of negotiations, so there have been calls to withdraw from the memorandum of understanding over the situation in the strait.

伊朗国内的极端强硬派长期以来一直认为根本不应该谈判，因此目前出现了因海峡局势而要求退出谅解备忘录的呼声。

“I think it is mostly posturing,” said Nate Swanson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who previously served as director for Iran at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “I think it is akin to what Trump is doing. He is negotiating through kinetic actions and loud threats, so in some ways they are speaking the same language.”

“我认为这主要是一种姿态，”大西洋理事会高级研究员内特·斯旺森表示，他此前曾在拜登总统任内的国家安全委员会担任伊朗事务主任。“我认为这与特朗普正在做的事情类似。他正在通过军事行动和大声威胁来进行谈判，所以在某些方面他们讲的是同一种语言。”

Iran was betting that Mr. Trump, expressing annoyance with the conflict and facing difficult midterm elections in four months, would not gamble on restarting an unpopular war, analysts suggested.

分析人士认为，伊朗是在押注特朗普不愿冒险重启一场不得人心的战争，他此前对这场冲突表达了厌烦，且在四个月后面临着艰难的中期选举。

Yet Mr. Trump unleashed a tirade against the Iranians, assailing their leaders as “evil” and “scum” and suggesting that the United States would hit Iran even harder. He called the cease-fire “over.”

然而，特朗普对伊朗人发起了严厉的抨击，斥责他们的领导人“邪恶”，是“人渣”，并暗示美国将对伊朗进行更沉重的打击。他宣布停火已经“结束”。

“They risk misreading President Trump which they have done over and over again,” said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who is a retired U.S. Army colonel and a former special envoy for Syria during the first Trump administration. Iran has a long habit of taking provocative actions like firing on the tankers and then acting as the aggrieved party, he said, “They are overplaying their hand.”

“他们冒了误读特朗普总统的风险，而这种误读他们已经一而再、再而三地犯过了，”哈德逊研究所高级研究员、退役美国陆军上校乔尔·雷伯恩表示，他曾在第一任特朗普政府期间担任叙利亚问题特使。他指出，伊朗长期以来有一种习惯，即采取向油轮开火等挑衅行动，然后又表现得像是个受害者，“他们正在过度下注。”

It would not be the first time. Right after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the new hard-line government in Tehran held onto American Embassy hostages for 444 days, far longer than they served as useful bargaining chips, and had billions of dollars of assets in Western financial institutions seized in return. In 1982, Iran declined a truce in the Iran-Iraq war, leading to six more years of brutal fighting and hundreds of thousands of casualties.

这已经不是第一次了。在1979年伊斯兰革命之后，德黑兰新成立的强硬派政府扣押美国大使馆人质长达444天，远超其作为有用谈判筹码的期限，并导致其在西方金融机构的数十亿美元资产被冻结。1982年，伊朗拒绝了两伊战争停战协议，导致两国间进行了一场长达六年的残酷冲突，伤亡数十万人。