President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a state visit in a position of relative weakness.

俄罗斯总统普京周二抵达北京，开始对中国进行国事访问。此时的他，处于一种相对弱势的位置。

His army is struggling to move in Ukraine. His seat of power, Moscow, has been increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian drones. Russia’s economy is under severe strain. More Russians are growing tired of what increasingly looks like a fruitless and endless war.

他的军队在乌克兰举步维艰。他的权力中枢莫斯科日益暴露在乌克兰无人机的威胁之下。俄罗斯经济承受着严峻压力。越来越多的俄罗斯人对这场看似毫无成效、无休无止的战争感到厌倦。

Even in better times for Moscow, its relationship with Beijing has been defined by economic imbalance. “China has massive leverage and can dictate exactly what it wants from this menu of bilateral cooperation,” said Aleksandr Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

即便是在俄罗斯状况更好的时期，莫斯科与北京之间的关系也始终被经济上的不平衡所定义。位于柏林的卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说：“中国拥有巨大的筹码，可以在双边合作的菜单上明确地点出自己想要的一切。”

Still, Russia is not content being relegated to junior partner to China. Its nuclear arsenal, far larger than Beijing’s, could make it an important ally in any superpower conflict, including over Taiwan. The invasion of Ukraine has positioned Moscow as a leader of an emerging non-Western world order supported by Beijing.

不过，俄罗斯并不甘心沦为中国的小伙伴。俄罗斯拥有远比中国更庞大的核武库，足以使其在任何超级大国冲突中——包括围绕台湾的冲突——成为重要盟友。对乌克兰的入侵使莫斯科在北京支持下的新兴非西方世界秩序中占据了领军地位。

And then there is the opening provided by the war against Iran waged by the United States and Israel.

此外，还有美国和以色列对伊朗发动的战争所带来的契机。

Five days after an architect of that conflict, President Trump, left Beijing at the end of his own state visit, Mr. Putin will join the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, for a day of meetings on Wednesday.

在这场冲突的策划者之一、美国总统特朗普结束其国事访问离开北京五天后，普京将于周三与中国领导人进行为期一天的会谈。

The upheaval that Mr. Trump has caused in the Persian Gulf has disrupted energy supplies to China, and Russia has promoted itself as a reliable alternative. Russian officials hope to leverage the Middle East crisis to deepen energy ties with Beijing, including by moving ahead with a stalled pipeline project.

特朗普在波斯湾掀起的动荡扰乱了中国的能源供应，而俄罗斯趁机将自己标榜为可靠的替代来源。俄罗斯官员希望利用中东危机进一步深化与北京的能源合作，包括推进一项久拖未决的天然气管道项目。

Ivan Timofeev, the director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank co-founded by the country’s foreign ministry, said the Middle East conflict showed how Russia could “mitigate for China the risks associated with logistics and the Persian Gulf.”

由俄罗斯外交部参与创办的智库俄罗斯国际事务委员会总干事伊万·季莫费耶夫表示，中东冲突表明，俄罗斯可以“帮助中国缓解与物流及波斯湾相关的风险”。

“Russia retains a crucial strategic role here for China in the event of such escalations,” Mr. Timofeev said on Friday during a news conference in Moscow.

季莫费耶夫上周五在莫斯科的一次新闻发布会上表示：“在局势如此升级的情况下，俄罗斯对中国依然具有至关重要的战略作用。”

By hosting Mr. Putin just days after Mr. Trump’s visit, Mr. Xi is tending to his relationship with his most important strategic partner and casting China as an indispensable global power.

习近平在特朗普访问结束仅几天后就接待普京，一方面是在维护与其最重要战略伙伴的关系，另一方面也是在把中国塑造成一个不可或缺的全球大国。

Since December, Mr. Xi has welcomed to Beijing the leaders of France, Canada, Britain, Germany and the United States. In his summit with Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi argued that China and the United States were now peer powers and that they should avoid prioritizing competition.

自去年12月以来，习近平已在北京接待了法国、加拿大、英国、德国和美国领导人。在与特朗普的峰会上，习近平主张中美如今已是平起平坐的大国，双方应避免将竞争置于首位。

Mr. Putin has been working to position himself advantageously between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.

普京一直致力于在特朗普与习近平之间谋求有利于自身的位置。

The Russian leader has tried to cultivate Mr. Trump, seeking his help in securing a favorable resolution to the invasion of Ukraine and reaping the benefits of renewed business relations after the war.

这位俄罗斯领导人一直试图拉拢特朗普，希望借助他的力量为俄乌战争谋得一个对俄罗斯有利的结果，并从战后恢复的商业往来中获得好处。

Mr. Putin’s ties to Mr. Xi, however, run far deeper. The Russian leader has worked to develop a well-documented bond with his Chinese counterpart, calling him his “dear friend” and “best bosom friend.”

然而，普京与习近平之间的纽带要深厚得多。普京长期致力于与这位中国领导人建立有目共睹的密切关系，称他为“亲爱的朋友”和“最好的知心朋友”。

Mr. Xi is expected to reaffirm that closeness on Wednesday.

预计习近平周三将再次重申这份亲密关系。

“Both sides will seize this opportunity to continue to promote the development of China-Russia relations to a deeper and higher level, injecting more stability and positive energy into the world,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Guo Jiakun, said on Monday.

中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周一表示：“双方将以此为契机，继续推动中俄关系向更深层次、更高水平发展，为世界注入更多稳定性和正能量。”

Mr. Putin struck a similar note in an address published by the Kremlin on Tuesday ahead of the visit. “The close strategic relationship between Russia and China plays a major, stabilizing role globally,” he said, adding, “Without allying against anyone, we seek peace and universal prosperity.”

普京在访问前于周二通过克里姆林宫发布的讲话中也表达了类似的观点。“俄中之间紧密的战略组合在国际舞台上发挥着重要的稳定作用，”他说，并补充道：“我们的友谊不针对第三方，而是追求和平与共同繁荣。”

In Mr. Putin, Mr. Xi sees a like-minded leader frustrated by American dominance of the global order, said Julian Gewirtz, a senior director for China and Taiwan affairs at the National Security Council in the Biden administration.

曾在拜登政府国家安全委员会负责中国与台湾事务的朱利安·格维兹表示，在习近平眼中，普京是一个“志同道合”的领导人，两人都对美国主导的全球秩序感到不满。

While Mr. Trump lavished praise on the Chinese leader during his visit to Beijing, “Xi’s embrace of Putin this week should be a reminder that Beijing’s closest international partners are connected by their shared emphasis on resistance to the United States,” Mr. Gewirtz said.

他说，尽管特朗普在访华期间对习近平大加赞美，但“习近平本周对普京的拥抱，提醒人们：北京最亲密的国际伙伴，正是那些在反美这一点上立场一致的国家。”

Russia and China declared a “no limits” strategic partnership in early 2022, weeks before Moscow invaded Ukraine.

2022年初，就在莫斯科入侵乌克兰数周前，俄中两国宣布建立“无上限”战略伙伴关系。

The economic asymmetry in the relationship is glaring. Beijing supplies more than a third of Russia’s imports and buys more than a quarter of Moscow’s exports, while Russia accounts for only about 4 percent of China’s international trade, a share smaller than Vietnam’s.

两国关系中的经济不对称十分明显。北京提供了俄罗斯超过三分之一的进口商品，并购买了莫斯科超过四分之一的出口产品；而俄罗斯只占中国国际贸易总额约4%，甚至低于越南。

Although Russia’s economic dependence — including for parts to power its war machine — constrains its actions toward China, the Kremlin has gone its own way at times.

尽管俄罗斯在经济上——包括维持战争机器运转所需零部件方面——越来越依赖中国，制约了其对华行动，但克里姆林宫有时也会按自己的路线行事。

While Western officials believe that Mr. Xi has been urging Mr. Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine, Russia moved such weapons into neighboring Belarus in 2023, and Russian forces are currently holding nuclear exercises in Belarus even as Mr. Putin visits Beijing.

西方官员认为，习近平一直在劝说普京不要在乌克兰使用核武器；但俄罗斯却在2023年把核武器部署到邻国白俄罗斯。而就在普京访问北京期间，俄罗斯军队还正在白俄罗斯举行核演习。

But the advantages of a partnership with Moscow are clear to China, especially in comparison to the United States.

但对中国而言，与俄罗斯结为伙伴的好处是显而易见的，尤其是与美国相比。

“Russia remains a predictable partner, whereas the United States is not,” said Andrei Kortunov, an expert on international affairs with the Kremlin-linked Valdai Discussion Club. He added that Mr. Putin had been visiting China regularly, while Mr. Trump’s last visit occurred in 2017.

“俄罗斯仍然是一个可以预期的伙伴，而美国则不是，”瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部的国际事务专家安德烈·科尔图诺夫表示，这是一个与克里姆林宫有关联的组织。他还指出，普京一直定期访问中国，而特朗普上一次访华还是2017年的事。

As the Chinese and Russian leaders have grown closer, so have their countries.

随着中俄两国领导人关系日益紧密，两国之间的关系也在不断深化。

Last year, both began to allow their citizens to conduct visa-free travel. Hundreds of thousands of Russians visited the Chinese island of Hainan in 2025, according to the Association of Russian Tour Operators, and the numbers have continued growing this year.

去年，两国开始互免签证。据俄罗斯旅游运营商协会的数据，2025年赴中国海南岛的俄罗斯游客达数十万人次，而今年这一数字还在继续增长。

俄罗斯赴华旅游人数大幅增长。图为一名俄罗斯游客在海南享受日光浴，摄于去年。

In Moscow, schools with Mandarin on the curriculum have been oversubscribed. One Russian governor has taken pride in the fact that his children can recite poems in Chinese dedicated to Russian-Chinese friendship. Highways in Moscow and other Russian cities are now filled with Chinese-made cars. Chinese restaurants pepper the streets.

在莫斯科，开设汉语课程的学校报名人数远超招生名额。一位俄罗斯州长对自己的孩子能背诵歌颂俄中友谊的中文诗歌感到自豪。莫斯科及其他俄罗斯城市的高速公路上如今充满了中国制造的汽车。中餐馆也在大街小巷遍地开花。

“The bilateral relation continues to thrive, and Russians are still very positive and curious about China,” Kirill V. Babaev, the head of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in response to written questions.

俄罗斯科学院中国与现代亚洲研究所所长基里尔·巴巴耶夫在回答书面提问时表示：“双边关系持续蓬勃发展，俄罗斯人对中国依然抱有非常积极的态度和浓厚的好奇心。”

“Surprisingly,” he added, “the conflict in the Middle East has made China even closer for Russians who turned to Chinese resorts instead of the Middle East.”

他还补充说：“令人意外的是，中东冲突反而让中国对俄罗斯人来说变得更加亲近，因为很多人放弃去中东度假，转而选择中国的度假胜地。”

Mr. Babaev also pointed out that Chinese and Russian companies had found ways to conduct payments that bypass Western sanctions. “A transaction from a sanctioned Russian bank to an account in China now takes less than half an hour,” he said, adding that in 2024 “it could take weeks.”

巴巴耶夫还指出，中俄两国企业已找到绕开西方制裁进行支付的途径。“从一家受制裁的俄罗斯银行向中国账户转账，现在不到半小时就能完成，”他说，还说在2024年，“有时要等好几个星期。”

While the conflict in the Middle East has seemingly reversed Russia’s economic fortunes, even if temporarily, it has more fundamentally turned Moscow into an increasingly indispensable energy supplier for China and other countries.

尽管中东冲突似乎逆转了俄罗斯的经济处境——即便只是暂时性的——但从更根本的意义上说，它使莫斯科成为中国及其他国家日益不可或缺的能源供应国。

For years, Russia has been trying to push China to go forward with a major new gas pipeline, known as Power of Siberia 2, that would link its Siberian extraction sites with China’s northwest through Mongolia. But Beijing has been hesitant, trying to push for lower energy prices and fearing that the pipeline would deepen its dependence on one supplier too much.

多年来，俄罗斯一直试图推动中国推进一条名为“西伯利亚力量2号”的大型新天然气管道项目。该项目计划通过蒙古，把俄罗斯西伯利亚气田与中国西北地区连接起来。但北京方面一直犹豫不决，试图压低能源价格，同时也担心这条管道会加深其对单一供应国的过度依赖。

The energy shock from the Iran conflict may have upended that dynamic, underscoring the importance for China, the world’s largest importer of natural gas, to diversify its supply options beyond the Middle East.

伊朗冲突引发的能源冲击可能已经打破了这一局面，凸显出作为全球最大天然气进口国的中国有必要将供应来源拓展到中东以外，以实现多元化。

“The war in the Persian Gulf is a new factor — it has influenced Chinese planning and the signals we are receiving from our Chinese colleagues,” said Vasily Kashin, the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

莫斯科高等经济学院“综合欧洲与国际研究中心”主任瓦西里·卡申表示：“波斯湾战争是一个新的因素——它影响了中国的规划，也影响了我们从中国同行那里收到的信号。”

“As I see it, the chances of concluding a deal on Power of Siberia 2 will continue to grow for now.”

“在我看来，就‘西伯利亚力量2号’达成协议的可能性，眼下还将持续上升。”