
Between the military honor guard, flag-waving schoolchildren and state banquet in Beijing last week, President Trump found time to lavish praise on Xi Jinping, the head of the Chinese Communist Party, calling him “a great leader” and “a friend.”
上周在北京,特朗普总统在检阅仪仗队、接受挥舞国旗的学童列队欢迎以及出席国宴等一系列活动的间隙,对中共领导人习近平不吝赞美之词,称其为“伟大领导人”和“朋友”。
The two men, Mr. Trump said, would “have a fantastic future together.”
特朗普表示,双方将“开创两国更加美好的未来”。
Mr. Trump flew home without stopping anywhere else in Asia. In interviews during and after the trip, he made no reassuring remarks on U.S. allies or partners in the region. He did say, however, that he would revisit arms sales to Taiwan, a comment that has stirred anxiety across Asia and prompted questions about U.S. security commitments.
访问结束后,特朗普直接飞回美国,未在亚洲其他国家停留。在访问期间和之后的采访中,他没有对美国在亚洲的盟友或伙伴发表任何安抚性言论。不过,他确实表示将重新考虑对台军售,这一言论在亚洲引发焦虑,令各方对美国的安全承诺产生质疑。
Indian leaders are among those with concerns.
感到忧虑的包括印度领导人。
Rather than getting a face-to-face meeting with Mr. Trump to hear about his vision for Asia, they are hosting Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his first trip to the world’s most populous nation. The four-day visit, with plans for closed-door diplomacy and jaunts to historical sites, began on Saturday with a quick stop at Mother Teresa’s charity in Kolkata and a meeting with Narendra Modi, the prime minister, in Delhi.
他们未能与特朗普进行面对面会晤以听取其亚洲愿景,而是接待了国务卿鲁比奥——这是他首次访问这个世界人口最多的国家。为期四天的访问于周六开始,包括闭门外交会谈和游览历史遗迹。他先在加尔各答的特蕾莎修女的慈善机构短暂停留,随后在新德里与印度总理莫迪举行了会面。
Mr. Rubio delivered an invitation on behalf of Mr. Trump for Mr. Modi to visit the White House, and the two officials spoke about deepening trade and defense cooperation, the State Department said in a summary of the meeting.
据国务院发布的会晤纪要,鲁比奥代表特朗普向莫迪发出了访问白宫的邀请,双方还就深化贸易与防务合作进行了磋商。
Mr. Rubio, who was in Beijing with Mr. Trump, will be expected to explain throughout his trip the administration’s Asia policy, given the American president’s clear desire to become a partner of Mr. Xi and to downplay security concerns over China.
鲁比奥此前曾陪同特朗普访华,鉴于美国总统明确希望与习近平建立伙伴关系,并淡化围绕中国在安全方面的担忧,鲁比奥在此次行程中预计将阐述美国政府的亚洲政策。
The secretary will meet not only with Indian officials, but also with the top diplomats from Japan and Australia, who are flying to Delhi for a conclave next Tuesday of a partnership known as the Quad.
鲁比奥不仅将与印度官员会晤,还将与来自日本和澳大利亚的最高外交官见面。后者将飞往德里,参加下周二的“四方安全对话”外长会议。
And Mr. Rubio is in India playing cleanup for Mr. Trump, who tried to cripple the country’s economy with high tariffs last summer after Mr. Modi, the prime minister, refused to nominate the American president for a Nobel Peace Prize. Mr. Trump had insisted that he played a crucial role in getting India and Pakistan to reach a cease-fire after each country had carried out deadly military strikes against the other.
鲁比奥此行还肩负为特朗普善后的任务。去年夏天,在莫迪拒绝提名特朗普为诺贝尔和平奖候选人后,特朗普试图以高关税打击印度经济。特朗普坚称,印巴之间在相互发动致命军事打击后之所以能够达成停火,自己发挥了关键作用。
Now there is a new strain on relations: Mr. Trump has praised Pakistani leaders for acting as mediators in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
如今,两国关系又添新的紧张因素:特朗普公开赞扬巴基斯坦领导人在美以对伊朗的战争中充当调停者。
Mr. Trump’s approach to India and China is the opposite of how the Biden administration and even the first Trump administration dealt with both countries.
特朗普对待印度和中国的方式与拜登政府乃至他自己的第一任期都截然相反。
Starting in the 2000s, Republican and Democratic policymakers pushed for closer ties with India, both to secure a partner to counterbalance against China and to wean Delhi off its reliance on Russia for security assistance.
自21世纪初以来,无论是共和党还是民主党的政策制定者都一直推动加强与印度的关系,这么做既是为了争取一个制衡中国的伙伴,也是为了帮助新德里摆脱对俄罗斯安全援助的依赖。
Mr. Trump has upended that. And one surprising consequence is that Indian officials are trying harder to improve relations with China given the sudden erosion of U.S. support.
特朗普现在颠覆了这一传统。一个意想不到的后果是,面对美国支持的骤减,印度官员正加大力度改善与中国的关系。
“There is deep concern on the current direction of India-U.S. relations and how ties have deteriorated,” said Ananth Krishnan, a Beijing resident and the author of a book about India and China.
“人们对当前印美关系的走向及双边关系的恶化程度深感担忧,”常驻北京、著有一部关于印中关系专著的学者阿南特·克里希南说。

“While I believe there is resilience to the deep linkages both sides have forged when you look at defense and technology, for example,” he said, “it’s still striking how the narrative has shifted from the framing of India as a key partner in the region.”
他还说:“虽然我认为双方在防务和科技等领域建立的深层联系仍具韧性,但如今关于印度是美国在本地区关键伙伴的叙事发生了如此巨大变化,仍然令人震惊。”
Indian officials noted Mr. Trump’s use of the term “G2” to refer to relations between the United States and China — “the two great countries” — in an interview he did in Beijing with Fox News.
印度官员注意到,特朗普在北京接受福克斯新闻采访时,使用了“G2”一词来指代美中关系——“两个伟大的国家”。
Indeed, Mr. Trump has long had an affinity for the leaders of China and Russia. He expresses admiration for authoritarian leaders, sometimes with an aesthetic component. He said in the Fox News interview that Mr. Xi, who is almost six feet tall, looked like he was out of “central casting. He added: “You couldn’t find a guy like him.”
事实上,特朗普长期以来一直对中国和俄罗斯领导人抱有某种亲近感。他经常表达对威权领导人的钦佩,有时甚至流露出一种形象上的欣赏。他在接受福克斯新闻采访时称,身高约一米八的习近平看起来像是“从电影选角公司直接走出来的人”。他还补充说:“你根本找不到像他这样的人。”
Mr. Modi presides over a democracy, even if many experts say he tries to rule in an authoritarian manner.
莫迪领导的是一个民主国家,尽管许多专家认为他试图以威权方式治理国家。
In Mr. Trump’s first term, the populist Indian prime minister seemed to win over the populist U.S. president. Mr. Modi in 2020 threw a campaign-style rally for Mr. Trump in a 110,000-seat cricket stadium in India, following a similar “Howdy, Modi!” mass party for the Indian leader in Houston. “From this day onward, India will always hold a special place in our hearts,” Mr. Trump said in Ahmedabad.
在特朗普的第一任期内,这位民粹主义的印度总理似乎赢得了这位民粹主义的美国总统的好感。2020年,莫迪在印度一个可容纳11万人的板球体育场为特朗普举办了一场竞选式的集会,此前美国在休斯顿为这位印度领导人举办过类似的“莫迪加油”大型聚会。特朗普在艾哈迈达巴德说:“从今天起,印度将永远在我们心中占据特殊的位置。”
But in a call last June, Mr. Modi insisted that India and Pakistan had resolved their crisis on their own, without help from Mr. Trump. The American president, who is obsessed with getting the Nobel Peace Prize, seethed, The New York Times reported.
然而,据《纽约时报》报道,去年6月的一次通话中,莫迪坚称印巴两国系自行化解了危机,并非特朗普的功劳。对诺贝尔和平奖充满执念的特朗普为此勃然大怒。
He soon imposed tariffs of 50 percent on Indian imports that U.S. companies had to pay. The two countries reached an interim trade agreement in February with onerous terms for India. Then the Supreme Court struck down Mr. Trump’s tariffs on more than 100 countries, though the president is still trying to impose such taxes through alternative means.
随后,他对印度商品征收50%的关税,美国企业不得不为此埋单。今年2月,两国达成了一项临时贸易协议,条款对印度十分苛刻。之后,最高法院推翻了特朗普对100多个国家征收的关税,但总统仍在寻求通过其他途径延续此类课税。
Now “Secretary Rubio’s gargantuan task is to lay the foundation for Trump to repair this relationship,” said Donald Lu, a retired career diplomat and an assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia in the Biden administration.
曾在拜登政府担任南亚与中亚事务助理国务卿的退休外交官唐纳德·卢表示,现在“鲁比奥国务卿的艰巨任务是为特朗普修复这段关系打下基础”。
Part of that mission falls to a close ally of Mr. Trump’s, Sergio Gor, the new ambassador to India.
这项使命的一部分落在了特朗普的挚友、新任驻印度大使塞尔吉奥·戈尔身上。
“Trump One was in a sense a continuation of the Bush and Obama pro-India pivot and the buildup of the Indo-Pacific partnership to contain China,” said Meenakshi Narula Ahamed, the author of a book on U.S.-India relations.
著有一本美印关系专著的米娜克希·纳鲁拉·艾哈迈德说:“第一任期的特朗普政府在某种程度上延续了布什和奥巴马时期的亲印战略转向,以及构建印太伙伴关系以制衡中国的既有路线。”
One problem now, she added, is that the current crop of Trump aides do not view India favorably.
她补充说,现在的一个问题是,特朗普目前的这批幕僚对印度并不抱有好感。
“There is no strategic thinking regarding alliances that I can see,” she said.
“我看不到任何关于双方联盟的战略性思考,”她说。
Given Mr. Trump’s unpredictability, many Indian officials say the country should adhere to its longstanding policy of “strategic autonomy” — keeping other world powers at arm’s length.
鉴于特朗普难以预测,许多印度官员表示,印度应继续坚持长期奉行的“战略自主”政策——即与其他世界大国均保持一定距离。
That position is “part of our history and our evolution,” and “it is something which is very deep,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s top diplomat, said at the Munich Security Conference in February.
印度外长苏杰生在今年2月的慕尼黑安全会议上表示,这一立场“是我们历史与发展进程的一部分”,并且“非常深厚”。

The next month, Christopher Landau, the deputy secretary of state, shocked some Indian officials by asserting at the Raisina Dialogue, an annual forum in Delhi, that the U.S. government could see India as an economic and strategic threat.
次月,副国务卿克里斯托弗·兰多在德里年度论坛瑞辛纳对话上断言,美国政府可能将印度视为经济与战略威胁,此言令一些印度官员感到震惊。
“India should understand that we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago in terms of saying, ‘We are going to let you develop all these markets,’ and then, the next thing we know, you are beating us in a lot of commercial things,” he said.
“印度应该明白,我们不会像20年前对中国那样,对印度犯同样的错误——说‘我们要让你开发所有这些市场’,然后转眼间,你在很多商业领域就把我们打败了,”他说。
Last month, Mr. Trump posted a transcript from a right-wing podcast in which the host, Michael Savage, referred to China and India as “hellhole” places and said recent immigrants from those countries had not “integrated” into the United States as “European Americans” had.
上个月,特朗普还在社交媒体转发了一档右翼播客节目的文字版。其中主持人迈克尔·萨维奇把中国和印度称为“地狱般”的地方,并表示来自这两个国家的新移民不像“欧裔美国人”那样“融入”美国社会。
Without naming Mr. Trump, the Indian government took the rare step of rebuking the White House on social media, calling the comments “obviously uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste.”
印度政府罕见地在社交媒体上公开回击白宫,虽未直接点名特朗普,但称这些言论“显然是无知的、不恰当的,而且品味低劣”。
Mr. Jaishankar and other Indian officials will try to gauge the Trump administration’s estimation of their country in talks with Mr. Rubio on Sunday. They also aim to better understand Mr. Trump’s intentions with Mr. Xi.
周日,苏杰生及其他印度官员将与鲁比奥举行会谈,试图判断特朗普政府究竟如何看待印度,同时也想进一步了解特朗普对习近平的真实意图。
“They will particularly seek to understand the significance of Washington agreeing to a ‘constructive relationship of strategic stability’ with Beijing,” said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who writes on India-China relations.
布鲁金斯学会专注印中关系研究的高级研究员坦维·马丹表示:“他们尤其想弄清楚,华盛顿同意与北京建立‘建设性战略稳定关系’,究竟意味着什么。”
The top diplomats from Japan and Australia, who plan to take part in the Quad meeting on Tuesday, have the same questions.
计划参加周二四方安全对话会议的日本和澳大利亚外长也有同样的疑问。
Mr. Trump’s moves against India have had a notable effect: Indian officials are trying to defuse tensions with China. Relations between the two nations imploded after their militaries clashed in 2020 along their Himalayan border. The countries fought a war over disputed mountainous territory in 1962.
特朗普对印度采取的一系列行动已产生一个显著效果:印度官员正试图缓和与中国的紧张关系。2020年两国军队在喜马拉雅山边境发生冲突后,双边关系急剧恶化。两国曾在1962年因争议山地领土打过一场战争。
“While I don’t think India-China ties will go back to where they were, because what we saw in 2020 was a deep rupture, it’s clear that both are looking to restore some ballast to the relationship,” said Mr. Krishnan, the author in Beijing.
“虽然我不认为印中关系能回到从前,因为2020年发生的事情造成了深刻裂痕,但很明显双方都在寻求为关系重新注入一些稳定性,”现居北京的作者克里希南说。
The two nations have recently eased travel restrictions between them, and India is working on possibly allowing more Chinese investment into some nonsensitive areas of the Indian economy.
两国近期相互放宽了签证限制,印度也在研究是否允许更多中国投资进入印度经济的一些非敏感领域。
If progress is made on the border issue, Mr. Krishnan said, “that could potentially raise the ceiling that currently limits the relationship.”
克里希南表示,如果在边界问题上取得进展,“这可能会提升目前限制两国关系的上限。”