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特朗普在北京大谈“友谊”,但峰会未达成任何实质成果

ANTON TROIANOVSKI

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平周四在北京的国宴上。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times

There was a vague agreement that China would purchase Boeing jets and more American soybeans. There was discussion about Iran and opening the Strait of Hormuz, and a nod to other issues, like cracking down on chemicals used to make fentanyl.

双方达成了一项模糊的协议,中国将购买波音飞机以及更多的美国大豆。伊朗问题和开放霍尔木兹海峡也在讨论之列,此外还顺带提及了其他议题,比如打击芬太尼前体化学品。

But President Trump departed Beijing on Friday with almost nothing concrete to show for his two-day summit with President Xi Jinping of China. After months of buildup and a delay necessitated by Mr. Trump’s difficulty in extricating the United States from the war with Iran, the summit ended with no major public progress on the Middle East, trade, Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, artificial intelligence or any of the other myriad issues that are sources of friction between the world’s two superpowers.

然而,特朗普总统在周五离开北京时,他与中国领导人的两天峰会几乎未能拿出任何实质成果。此次峰会经过数月的酝酿,并因特朗普难以让美国从与伊朗的战争中抽身而被迫推迟,最终在涉及中东、贸易、台湾、核扩散、人工智能以及世界两个超级大国之间引发摩擦的众多其他议题上,未能取得重大公开进展

Instead, Mr. Trump seemed intent on a different kind of diplomacy, forging a personal bond with a Chinese leader who appeared far more focused on advancing his own nation’s strategic agenda.

相反,特朗普似乎更醉心于另一种外交——与这位中国领导人建立私人情谊,而习近平显然更专注于推进本国的战略议程。

Mr. Trump toasted Mr. Xi as “my friend” at their banquet in Beijing on Thursday and said he had “become really a friend” when they sat down before the cameras on Friday.

特朗普周四在北京的宴会上举杯称习近平是“我的朋友”,并在周五两人面对镜头坐下时表示,他又说两人已“真的成了朋友”。

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, asked at a briefing during the summit whether Mr. Xi considered Mr. Trump a friend, responded with boilerplate: “the two sides exchanged views on major issues.”

峰会期间,有记者在记者会上问中国外交部发言人,中国领导人是否视特朗普为朋友,发言人以官方套话回应:“双方就重大议题交换了意见。”

Mr. Trump has hailed the summit in Beijing as a major success, highlighting the personal bond he says he has built with China’s longtime leader. But the feeling is not necessarily mutual, as evidenced by Mr. Xi’s more measured tone and the lack of clarity about any major agreements.

特朗普将此次北京峰会誉为重大成功,并强调他与中国的这位长期领导人建立了私人情谊。但这种感觉未必是相互的,习近平更为谨慎的措辞以及双方在重大协议上的模糊状态都说明了这一点。

Orville Schell, vice president of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York, called the summit “quite insubstantial and aspirational.”

纽约亚洲协会美中关系中心副主任夏伟(Orville Schell)表示,此次峰会“相当空洞,流于愿景”。

“We have Trump dreaming out loud,” he said.

“特朗普这是在公开畅想,”他说。

The mismatch shows the risks in Mr. Trump’s personality-driven foreign policy, his bet that he can solve the world’s problems and defend American interests by his charm and force of will. In Mr. Xi, the U.S. president faced a counterpart this week well versed in Mr. Trump’s desire for praise and pomp, and with an apparent strategy for how to exploit it.

这种落差暴露了特朗普人格魅力驱动型外交的风险,他押注于凭借个人魅力和意志力来解决世界的问题,维护美国利益。而他面对的习近平则显然非常熟悉特朗普对赞美和盛大场面的偏好,并显然有一套如何加以利用的策略。

The result, analysts said, was a summit that illustrated the growing confidence of China on the world stage alongside a strategically muddled U.S. foreign policy under Mr. Trump.

分析人士表示,此次峰会的结果折射出中国在国际舞台上与日俱增的自信,以及特朗普领导下战略混乱的美国外交。

The summit might yet come to be seen as the start of a shift toward a more stable relationship between the United States and China. But few of even the limited accomplishments that Mr. Trump spoke about were confirmed by China, while Mr. Xi set the tone with an assertive posture over Taiwan.

这场峰会未来或许仍可能被视为美中关系走向更稳定阶段的开端。但即便是特朗普提到的那些有限成果,也几乎没有得到中方确认;与此同时,习近平则以在台湾问题上的强硬姿态主导了整体基调。

Experts say there is no question that personal chemistry between leaders is crucial, especially when authoritarian, centralized countries like China are involved.

专家指出,领导人之间的私人默契至关重要,这一点毋庸置疑,尤其是在涉及像中国这样权力高度集中的威权国家尤为如此。

Susan L. Shirk, a senior State Department Asia specialist in the 1990s, said President Bill Clinton worked hard to establish a rapport with Jiang Zemin, the Chinese leader at the time; he would keep his eyes on Mr. Jiang even during the translation of his remarks, Ms. Shirk recalled.

上世纪90年代曾任国务院亚洲事务高级官员的谢淑丽(Susan L. Shirk)回忆,克林顿总统曾竭力与时任中国领导人江泽民建立私人默契;即便在译员翻译的时候,克林顿也一直注视着江泽民。

But Mr. Trump’s lavishing of praise on Mr. Xi was different, Ms. Shirk said, especially in contrast to the Chinese leader’s more restrained language. At times it was “embarrassing,” she said, like when Mr. Trump told the Fox News host Sean Hannity in an interview during the summit that Mr. Xi was “tall, very tall,” and then veered into ethnic stereotyping: “especially for this country, because they tend to be a little bit shorter.”

但谢淑丽表示,特朗普对中国领导人的溢美之词却有所不同,尤其是与中国领导人更为克制的言辞相比。她说,有时甚至到了“令人尴尬”的地步,例如特朗普在峰会期间接受福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提采访时,称中国领导人“个子很高,非常高”,然后又发表了带有族裔刻板印象的言论:“尤其是对这个国家的人来说,因为他们往往个子矮一点。”

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特朗普对习近平的溢美之词与中国领导人更为克制的语气形成了鲜明对比。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times

“He was flattering him excessively and it was clearly not working,” said Ms. Shirk, a professor at the University of California, San Diego. “The lack of preparation created this kind of void of substance in the meeting, and the Chinese stepped into that void.”

“他奉承得过了头,而且显然没有取得效果,”现在加州大学圣地亚哥分校当教授的谢淑丽说。"准备不足在会谈中造成了这种实质内容的空洞,而中国人则填补了这种空洞。"

Mr. Trump has already discovered that the power of his personality has limits in foreign policy. In his first term, he failed to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons despite asserting that he and Kim Jong-un, the country’s leader, “fell in love.” In his second term, he has failed to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine despite a dozen phone calls with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and their summit in Alaska.

特朗普其实早已发现,他的个人魅力在外交政策中的作用是有限的。在第一任期中,尽管他声称自己与朝鲜领导人金正恩“坠入爱河”,但仍未能让朝鲜放弃核武器。在第二任期中,尽管他与俄罗斯总统普京通了十几次电话,并在阿拉斯加举行峰会,但依旧未能停止俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵。

Still, asked to name the summit’s most important achievement for the United States, Mr. Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier: “I think the most important thing is relationship. It’s all about relationship.”

不过,当被问及此次峰会对美国而言最重要的成果是什么时,特朗普对福克斯新闻主持人布雷特·拜尔表示:“我认为最重要的是关系。一切都在于关系。”

“It sounds like something that doesn’t mean anything, but it’s everything,” Mr. Trump said.

“这听起来好像毫无意义,但其实它意味着一切,”特朗普说。

China, too, hailed the personal aspect of the visit. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, said after the summit that “head-of-state diplomacy is the ‘guiding star’” of “the most important and complex bilateral relationship in the world.” He said Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi spent nearly nine hours together and had been able “to achieve overall stability after experiencing ups and downs.”

中方也高度评价了这次访问中领导人个人层面的意义。中国外长王毅在峰会后表示,“中美关系是世界上最重要、最复杂的双边关系,元首外交是两国关系的‘定盘星’。”他说,特朗普与习近平共处近九小时,并且能够“推动中美关系历经跌宕起伏实现了总体稳定”。

But China entered the meeting with a broader agenda, while deflating U.S. claims of success. Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump about the threat of a clash over Taiwan, even as Mr. Trump said nothing about the island democracy until after Air Force One took off from Beijing. Mr. Wang also suggested that the achievements Mr. Trump had trumpeted — for example, China buying as many as 750 “big beautiful” Boeing jets — were not a done deal. On Saturday, China said it would acquire some aircraft, but stopped short of confirming a specific purchase of Boeing planes.

但中国是带着更广泛的议程进入此次会谈的,同时也在淡化美国所谓的“成功”。习近平警告特朗普台湾问题可能引发冲突,而特朗普直到“空军一号”离开北京后才首次谈及台湾。王毅也暗示,特朗普此前大肆宣传的成果——例如中国购买多达750架“又大又漂亮的”波音飞机——并非板上钉钉。周六,中国表示将采购部分飞机,但并未确认具体的采购数量。

“The working teams of both sides are still discussing the relevant details and will finalize the results as soon as possible,” Mr. Wang said, referring to the economic talks between the United States and China.

“双方工作团队仍在就有关细节进行磋商,将尽快锁定成果,”王毅在谈及美中经济对话时表示。

The disjointed dynamic stood in contrast to Mr. Xi’s relationship with the leader he does call a friend: Mr. Putin. Their summits have featured much warmer displays than the pomp in Beijing this week, including the time they made pancakes and drank vodka in 2018. Their meetings often include joint statements, including the one in 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that their countries’ friendship had “no limits.”

这种脱节的互动与习近平和那位他真正称为“朋友”的领导人——普京——之间的关系形成了鲜明对比。习近平与普京的峰会所展现出的亲密程度远超本周北京的盛大场面。2018年,两人甚至曾一起摊煎饼、喝伏特加。他们的会晤往往还会发表联合声明,包括2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰前夕那份著名声明,其中称两国友谊“没有上限”。

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特朗普总统与俄罗斯总统普京在阿拉斯加举行会晤,摄于去年8月。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

Mr. Putin will visit China next week, the Kremlin said on Saturday. The announcement was a reminder that Mr. Xi still looks to Russia as a crucial geopolitical partner and helps enable Russia’s war with trade and technology — a relationship that many in Washington see as a threat to American security.

克里姆林宫周六表示,普京将于下周访问中国。这一消息提醒人们,习近平仍将俄罗斯视为关键地缘政治伙伴,并通过贸易与技术帮助俄罗斯维持战争——这种关系在华盛顿许多人眼中是对美国安全的威胁。

Mr. Trump could see Mr. Xi again at a gathering of Asia and Pacific region leaders in Shenzhen, China, in November and at the Group of 20 summit that Mr. Trump will host at his Doral golf resort near Miami in December. Mr. Trump also said Mr. Xi would visit the United States on Sept. 24, a sign that the high-level diplomacy that Mr. Trump has kicked off with China may only be beginning.

特朗普可能于11月在深圳举行的亚太地区领导人峰会上,以及12月在迈阿密附近他拥有的多拉高尔夫度假村主办的二十国集团峰会上再次与习近平会面。特朗普还表示,习近平将于9月24日访问美国,这表明特朗普开启的对华高层外交可能才刚刚开始。

Whether all the meetings will yield benefits for the United States is yet to be seen, analysts said, though few dispute that any U.S. president needs to build a relationship with his Chinese counterpart. Mr. Schell, the Asia Society expert, cautioned that Mr. Xi had little track record of making concessions to the United States.

分析人士表示,这些会晤最终是否会给美国带来实际利益仍有待观察,但几乎没人否认,美国总统必须与中国领导人建立关系。亚洲协会的专家夏伟则提醒说,习近平过去几乎没有向美国作出让步的先例。

If concrete agreements do “come as a result of the bonhomie of this summit, I think we might be able to call it something of an inflection point,” Mr. Schell said. “That has not yet happened.”

如果实质性协议“真的因这次峰会的友好气氛而达成,我认为或许可以称之为一个转折点”,夏伟说。“但这种情况目前还没有发生。”

Keith Bradsher自北京、储百亮(Chris Buckley)自台湾台北对本文有报道贡献。Ruoxin Zhang对本文有研究贡献。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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