On Thursday morning, Washington time, a senior Iranian official wrote on X that the country’s fighters were hiding in sea caves near the Strait of Hormuz, preparing to “devastate the aggressors.”

华盛顿时间周四上午，一位伊朗高级官员在X平台上发文称，该国的战士正隐藏在霍尔木兹海峡附近的海蚀洞中，准备“重创侵略者”。

Eighteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat” that is “putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“对任何在霍尔木兹海峡水域布设水雷的船只，”特朗普总统18分钟后在Truth Social上发帖说。“我已命令美国海军开火击毁。”

Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, interrupted by a cease-fire that he extended indefinitely this week, has morphed from all-out bombardment to a volatile, costly standoff at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

特朗普对伊朗的战争在本周被他无限期延长的停火协议打断，现在已从全面轰炸转变为波斯湾入口处一场不稳定且代价高昂的对峙。

周四，特朗普总统在白宫椭圆形办公室。此前，他在社交媒体上发文称，他在霍尔木兹海峡对峙上“有的是时间，而伊朗没有”。

Neither side appears eager to return to the violence that ensnared much of the Middle East before the April 7 cease-fire, though both insist they are ready for it. And neither side is showing signs of capitulating to the other’s demands. The result is round after round of taunts, threats and maritime incidents, with many of the tensions playing out on social media even as the economic costs mount and Mr. Trump faces a political backlash at home.

双方似乎都不愿重返4月7日停火前席卷中东大部分地区的暴力冲突，尽管双方都坚称已做好准备。双方也都没有表现出向对方让步的迹象。结果就是一轮又一轮的嘲讽、威胁和海上事件，许多紧张局势甚至在社交媒体上展开，与此同时，经济成本不断上升，特朗普在国内也面临政治反弹。

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said she had assumed that a diplomatic deal would resolve the standoff quickly, given the economic and strategic costs to the United States of the Strait of Hormuz’s staying closed. But Ms. Maloney said she was now adjusting her expectations amid Iran’s determination to maintain control of the strait as leverage and the strategic quandary that Mr. Trump has found himself in.

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会副会长、伊朗问题专家苏珊·马洛尼表示，她原本以为鉴于霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭给美国带来的经济和战略代价，外交协议会很快解决这场对峙。但她说，现在她正在调整自己的预期，因为伊朗决心将控制海峡作为筹码，而特朗普也陷入了战略困境。

“He’s stuck with this, for as long as the strait remains closed,” Ms. Maloney said. “The speed with which this became a quagmire for the United States has been, also, quite stunning.”

“只要海峡保持关闭，他就会一直被困在这里，”马洛尼说。“这场危机如此迅速地变成美国的泥潭，也让人相当震惊。”

Mr. Trump insisted on Thursday that he had “all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t,” in the standoff over the strait. He posted a column by a hawkish commentator, Marc A. Thiessen, arguing that Mr. Trump should give Iran 72 hours before he resumes combat and opens the Strait of Hormuz by force.

特朗普周四坚称，在海峡对峙中，他“有的是时间，而伊朗没有”。他转发了一篇鹰派评论员马克·A·西森的专栏文章，主张特朗普应在72小时后恢复战斗，并以武力重新打开霍尔木兹海峡。

“If they don’t want to make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

“如果他们不想达成协议，那我就用军事手段结束它，”特朗普周四在白宫对记者说。

But in reality, Mr. Trump faces an array of bad options, experts say. The U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping in the strait — combined with Iran’s counter-blockade on other traffic — continues to squeeze global energy and commodity markets, risking more price inflation in the United States as Mr. Trump’s Republican Party already faces a daunting midterm election season.

但专家们表示，实际上特朗普面临着一系列糟糕的选项。美国对伊朗海峡航运的封锁——加上伊朗对其他船只的反封锁——继续挤压全球能源和大宗商品市场，这可能会在美国引发更多的物价上涨，与此同时，特朗普所在的共和党已面临艰难的中期选举季。

Iran appears determined to extract concessions from Mr. Trump, like sanctions relief and a compromise on its nuclear program, before agreeing to any diplomatic solution over the impasse. Ms. Maloney said that all signs pointed to Iran’s leaders continuing to believe that their tolerance for economic pain remains higher than that of Mr. Trump.

伊朗似乎决心在同意任何外交解决方案之前，从特朗普那里榨取让步，例如解除制裁以及在其核计划上达成妥协。马洛尼表示，所有迹象都表明，伊朗领导人依然认为他们对经济痛苦的承受能力高于特朗普。

Seeking a military solution could be even more painful for the United States. Airstrikes alone are unlikely to do enough damage to Iran’s military to prevent it from being able to fight back, said Seth G. Jones, the defense and security department president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Reopening the strait by force was possible, he said, but would involve the risk of large U.S. warships getting sunk, and of “U.S. Marines or Army soldiers seizing an island or shoreline and getting killed,” he said.

寻求军事解决方案对美国来说可能会更加痛苦。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心国防与安全部主任塞思·G·琼斯表示，仅靠空袭不太可能对伊朗军队造成足够的伤害，从而阻止其反击。他说，通过武力重新开放海峡是可能的，但这将面临大型美国军舰被击沉的风险，以及“美国海军陆战队或陆军士兵夺取岛屿或海岸线并遭受伤亡”的风险。

Mr. Trump also still faces the quandary of how to deal with Iran’s 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which could be enough for a dozen nuclear bombs. Mr. Trump insisted again on Thursday that he was determined to prevent Iran’s capability, warning that the alternative to U.S. success in Iran could be “nuclear holocaust” in European cities within reach of Iranian missiles.

特朗普还面临着如何处理伊朗约440公斤高浓铀的困境，这些铀足以制造约12枚核弹。他在周四再次坚称，他决心阻止伊朗的核能力，并警告称，如果美国在伊朗问题上失败，欧洲城市可能面临伊朗导弹射程内的“核浩劫”。

Iran faces hard choices, too. Its strikes on U.S. bases and on Arab countries around the Persian Gulf were effective in getting Mr. Trump to declare a cease-fire. But Mr. Jones said that achieving more by force would be difficult for Iran, especially given the blockade and the damage already done to its military.

伊朗也面临艰难抉择。它对美国基地和波斯湾周边阿拉伯国家的打击，有效迫使特朗普宣布停火。但琼斯表示，伊朗很难通过武力获得更多成果，尤其是考虑到当前的封锁以及其军队已遭受的损失。

周三在霍尔木兹海峡的船只。美国已对该海峡的伊朗航运实施封锁，而伊朗则对其他来往船只实施了反封锁。

“It’s kind of a game of chicken right now,” Mr. Jones said. Both in Washington and Tehran, he added, military officials were likely telling political leaders that “the military instrument is not likely to be successful in getting to any kind of a permanent solution.”

“现在有点像一场胆量比拼的游戏，”琼斯说。他补充道，在华盛顿和德黑兰，军方领导人很可能都在告诉政治领导人，“军事手段不太可能成功达成任何永久性解决方案。”

Given the military impasse and the economic pain on both sides, a negotiated resolution appears to be the most logical way out of the crisis, Mr. Jones and other analysts said. But the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could escalate quickly, as both Iran and the United States try to show their resolve in the narrow waterway while also trying diplomacy.

鉴于军事僵局和双方的经济痛苦，琼斯和其他分析人士表示，通过谈判达成解决方案似乎是摆脱这场危机最合乎逻辑的方式。但在试图通过外交手段解决问题的同时，伊朗和美国也试图在狭窄水道中展示决心，霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势可能迅速升级。

“You have a situation that’s not in equilibrium,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, referring to the contrast between the efforts at diplomacy and the “test of wills” at sea.

中东研究所高级研究员布莱恩·卡图利斯谈到外交努力与海上“意志考验”之间的反差时说：“目前的局势并不平衡。”

On Wednesday, Iran released a video showing its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps intercepting two cargo ships near the strait, with balaclava-clad forces scaling one of the vessels on a ladder. On Thursday, the U.S. military released a dramatic video of its own, showing Navy forces descending on ropes from helicopters onto a tanker it said was carrying oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean.

周三，伊朗发布了一段视频，显示其伊斯兰革命卫队在海峡附近拦截了两艘货船，蒙面部队通过梯子攀登其中一艘船。周四，美国军方也发布了自己的一段戏剧性视频，显示海军部队从直升机索降至一艘油轮上，美方称该油轮当时正在印度洋运载伊朗石油。

At the same time, Mr. Trump has said he wants to give diplomacy a chance. Referring to his cease-fire extension this week, he told reporters at the White House on Thursday that Iran was having trouble negotiating because “they are very disorganized right now.”

与此同时，特朗普表示他希望给外交机会。他在周四白宫对记者谈到本周延长停火时说，伊朗目前“非常混乱”，所以谈判有困难。

“They want to make a deal,” Mr. Trump said. “We thought we’d give them a little chance to get some of their turmoil resolved.”

“他们想达成协议，”特朗普说。“我们认为应该给他们一点时间来解决自身的混乱。”

Responding to a reporter’s question, Mr. Trump said that Americans would still need to wait “a little while” before gas prices come down.

在回答记者提问时，特朗普表示，美国人还需要再等“一段时间”才能看到油价下降。

The world is eager to know how long that will be. A long-term impasse between the United States and Iran carries enormous risks of its own, given the critical goods — not only oil and natural gas but also fertilizer and helium — that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

全世界都急于知道这段时间会有多长。美国与伊朗之间的长期僵持本身就带有巨大风险，因为通常通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的关键物资不仅有石油和天然气，还有化肥和氦气等。

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, told CNBC on Thursday that the crisis was worsening by the day.

国际能源署执行董事法提赫·比罗尔周四告诉CNBC，这场危机正在日益恶化。

“The longer it lasts, the longer time we will need to get back where we were before the war,” he said.

“持续得越久，我们就需要越长时间才能恢复到战前状态，”他说。

Cliff Kupchan, chairman emeritus of the Eurasia Group, a political risk assessment firm, said the risk of a monthslong shutdown of the strait was only beginning to “enter the collective mind of the markets.”

政治风险评估公司欧亚集团名誉主席克里夫·库普昌表示，海峡关闭长达数月的可能性才刚刚开始“进入市场的集体意识”。

“It’s actually a scenario that I think political analysts and markets need to get their heads around more,” Mr. Kupchan said. “We’re in uncharted territory.”

“这实际上是一个我认为政治分析师和市场都需要认真思考的情景，”库普昌说。“我们正处于未知领域。”