The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, reflecting investors’ optimism that a peace deal would be reached before the war in Iran could inflict significant damage on corporate America.

标普500指数周三创下新的历史收盘纪录，这反映出投资者乐观认为，在伊朗战争对美国企业造成重大损害之前，和平协议有望达成。

The benchmark stock index, which is widely watched across the world as a barometer of the health of the U.S. market, rose about 0.8 percent to close above 7,000 and higher than its previous peak, reached in January. The index had already erased its losses during the war in Iran and now sits 2 percent higher than it was before the fighting began in late February.

这项全球广泛关注的基准股指，作为美国市场健康状况的晴雨表，上涨约0.8%，收盘突破7000点，超过今年1月创下的前高。该指数已完全抹去伊朗战争期间的全部跌幅，目前比2月底战争爆发前的水平高出约2%。

Even as a spike in oil prices has led to a gloomier economic outlook, investors have been embracing signals in recent days that the United States and Iran could restart talks that ended last weekend in Pakistan without a deal but with comments from President Trump that he believed the war was nearing an end.

尽管油价飙升导致经济前景更加黯淡，但投资者最近几天仍积极回应相关信号：美国和伊朗可能重启谈判。上周末在巴基斯坦结束的谈判虽未达成协议，但特朗普总统表示，他相信战争即将结束。

The mere posture toward peace has helped to placate the stock market. Since the cease-fire took hold last week, investors have noted a shift in tone by the Trump administration that reflects a desire to end the conflict soon.

仅仅转向和平的姿态就已帮助安抚了股市。自上周停火生效以来，投资者注意到特朗普政府的语气发生转变，显示出希望尽快结束冲突的意愿。

“The market is trading assuming we have seen the worst of the conflict,” said Stefano Pascale, an equity analyst at Barclays.

“市场的交易是在假设我们已经看到了冲突最糟糕的阶段，”巴克莱银行股票分析师斯特凡诺·帕斯卡莱表示。

The S&P 500 is now on course for its third straight week of gains, the kind of winning streak not seen since October. The index has risen about 10 percent since March 30 — the nadir of the recent sell-off.

标普500指数目前有望连续第三周上涨，这是自去年10月以来未见的连胜纪录。自3月30日（近期抛售低点）以来，该指数已累计上涨约10%。

Still, some market watchers have been perplexed by the recent rally, which has taken place as the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway on Iran’s southern coast that serves as a crucial shipping lane for the world’s oil supply, has remained throttled. Even if a formal peace deal is achieved between the United States and Iran, it could take a long time to get ships moving again and repair damage to ports and other oil facilities. High oil and gas prices have been feeding into rising U.S. inflation and tumbling consumer confidence.

然而，一些市场观察人士对近期的反弹感到困惑，因为伊朗南部海岸的霍尔木兹海峡——这条对全球石油供应至关重要的狭窄航道——仍处于受阻状态。即使美国和伊朗达成正式和平协议，船舶恢复通航以及修复港口和其他石油设施也可能需要很长时间。高企的油气价格已推高美国通胀，并导致消费者信心下滑。

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession. Even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done, the I.M.F. warned as it cut its forecasts for economic growth.

国际货币基金组织周二表示，石油市场中断可能拖累经济增长、加剧通胀，并增加全球衰退的风险。IMF警告称，即使战争短暂，全球经济也已遭受损害，并因此下调了经济增长预测。

“What is a little strange is that there is a tendency by some to assume that it’s business as usual,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday when asked about the seeming exuberance of markets at an event held by Bloomberg in Washington.

“有点奇怪的是，有些人倾向于假设一切照旧，”欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周二在华盛顿的一场彭博社主办活动上被问及市场看似火热的表现时说道。

The longer oil markets are disrupted from the conflict, the greater the risk to the global economy and to financial markets. But in a further sign that equity investors already consider the end of the war to be in sight, stocks have rallied in recent weeks even on days when oil prices have risen.

石油市场因冲突而中断的时间越长，对全球经济和金融市场的风险就越大。但股市投资者似乎已认为战争结束在即——即使在油价上涨的日子，股市最近几周仍出现反弹，这进一步印证了这一点。

A widely watched monthly fund manager survey by Bank of America, conducted over the week through April 9, showed the most bearish outlook among investment managers since June of last year. Expectations for economic growth plummeted in the latest survey and the outlook for inflation shot higher.

美国银行针对基金经理的一项广受关注的月度调查（截至4月9日当周）显示，投资经理的展望是去年6月以来最悲观的。最新调查中，对经济增长的预期大幅下滑，而对通胀的预期则急剧上升。

But importantly, few responded that they thought this would lead to a recession. And without a recession, investors have been able to return to focusing on the otherwise strong backdrop provided by corporate earnings that kicked off this week.

但重要的是，很少有人认为这会导致衰退。而且只要没有衰退，投资者就能重新将注意力转向本周开始公布的企业财报所展现的强劲基本面。

Analysts expect a sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with some anticipating the best earnings season in roughly five years. And that has provided solid support for valuations to shrug off March’s market struggles.

分析师预计，这将是企业盈利连续第六个季度实现双位数增长，有些人预计这将成为大约五年来最好的财报季。这为估值提供了坚实支撑，使其能够摆脱3月份的市场动荡。

“As corporate earnings are the biggest driver of stock returns, this level of steadfast earnings growth is an incredibly positive sign given that the market has been hammered in the first quarter by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent oil prices skyrocketing to some of their highest levels in decades,” said Hardika Singh, a strategist at Fundstrat.

“由于企业盈利是股市回报的最大驱动力，在第一季度市场因霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭而遭受重创、油价飙升至几十年高位的情况下，这种稳健的盈利增长是一个极其积极的信号，”Fundstrat策略师哈尔迪卡·辛格表示。

JPMorgan Chase, the banking bellwether, on Tuesday reported a $17 billion profit for the first three months of the year, considerably more than analysts expected. The bank slightly lowered its forecast for profits in the remainder of the year, but still expects to earn more than $100 billion. Its executives expressed worry about energy costs weighing on consumers but stressed that the labor market remained healthy. Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America also reported strong profits this week.

银行业领军企业摩根大通周二公布，今年前三个月实现170亿美元利润，大幅超出分析师预期。该银行略微下调了今年剩余时间的盈利预测，但仍预计全年盈利超过1000亿美元。高管们对能源成本拖累消费者表示担忧，但强调劳动力市场依然健康。高盛、花旗和美国银行本周也均公布了出色的利润数据。

Bolstering the signal sent by the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies — typically seen as more susceptible to economic shocks — has also rallied sharply. The index has risen over 12 percent since March 30 and began trading on Wednesday just 0.5 percent away from its January record.

除了标普500指数发出的信号，小型公司罗素2000指数——通常被视为更易受经济冲击影响——也出现大幅反弹。自3月30日以来，该指数已上涨超过12%，周三开盘时距离1月纪录高点仅差0.5%。

Big technology companies have led the S&P 500 higher but the recovery has been broader than just the darlings of the artificial intelligence boom. More than 80 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 are now higher than they were on March 30.

大型科技公司引领标普500指数走高，但此次反弹的范围已超出人工智能热潮中的龙头股。目前标普500指数中超过80%的公司股价已高于3月30日的水平。

However, just as the stock sell-off had been somewhat contained by an awareness that this administration could change its mind quickly, many analysts are urging a similar caution as the market now moves higher.

然而，正如此前的股市抛售在一定程度上因投资者意识到本届政府可能迅速改变主意而得到控制一样，许多分析师现在敦促市场在走高时保持类似谨慎。

U.S. stocks are still facing “two-tailed risks,” analysts at Bank of America noted.

美国银行分析师指出，美股仍面临“双尾风险”。

The rise in energy stocks, which had been boosted by the rise in oil prices stemming from the war, has now faded. Shares of consumer staples like General Mills or Dollar General remain significantly lower than before the war began, with both companies down more than 20 percent since the end of February. Roughly two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 remain lower than they were when the war began.

此前因战争导致油价上涨而走强的能源股涨幅现已消退。像通用磨坊或达乐这样的消费必需品公司股价仍远低于战争爆发前的水平，自2月底以来均下跌超过20%。标普500指数中约有三分之二的公司股价仍低于战争开始时的水平。

“The obvious risk is that we have not seen the worst of the conflict,” Mr. Pascale said.

“显而易见的风险是，我们尚未看到冲突最糟糕的阶段，”帕斯卡莱表示。