The death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment in the 47-year existence of the Islamic Republic. The scenes that followed — throngs of Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate, others turning out to grieve — signal the deep uncertainty about what comes next.

伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊的死是伊斯兰共和国47年存在历史上的一个分水岭时刻。随后出现的景象——成群的伊朗人走上街头庆祝，另一些人则出来哀悼——表明人们对接下来会发生什么充满深深的不确定性。

There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump’s call to take over the government? Can Iran’s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?

现在有三个关键问题：抗议者将如何回应特朗普总统号召他们接管政府的呼吁？伊朗的威权体制能否存续？这次袭击是否会引发一场混乱的权力争夺战？

Mr. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran’s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.

特朗普和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡已公开呼吁伊朗人民，认为他们为伊朗人提供了推翻残暴威权政府的历史性机会。但他们如何设想手无寸铁的民众对抗一支装备精良、由意识形态驱动的安全部队，目前尚不清楚。

Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran’s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests.

虽然目前空袭只进行了两天，但一些地区专家怀疑，仅凭空中作战能否足够削弱伊朗政府，足以让伊朗人通过抗议将其推翻。

Nonetheless, Iran is headed toward a transformative moment, said Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

尽管如此，瑞士日内瓦研究生院伊朗及中东政治分析师法尔赞·萨贝特表示，伊朗正走向一个变革性的时刻。

“Some kind of change will happen in the system,” he said. “But in which direction? We don’t know.”

“体制内某种变化将会发生，”他说。“但会朝哪个方向？我们不知道。”

随着阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊遇刺身亡的消息传遍德黑兰，当地民众纷纷拿起手机。

Could Iranian protesters topple their government?

伊朗抗议者能否推翻他们的政府？

In some ways, Iranians are ever more defiant after facing a brutal crackdown on nationwide antigovernment protests in January, in which security forces killed thousands. As the violent repression subsided, the risks were still high even before the bombardment began. Yet students still protested and held sit-ins, and the families of slain protesters used their memorial services to voice dissent.

从某种程度上说，在1月全国反政府抗议遭受残酷镇压后，伊朗人变得更加不屈不挠，当时安全部队杀害了数千人。随着暴力镇压逐渐平息，即使在轰炸开始前，局势风险依然很高。然而，学生们仍在抗议并举行静坐，死难者家属则利用悼念仪式表达异议。

After the authorities confirmed Ayatollah Khamenei’s death in the attack, many Iranians dared to celebrate publicly — but not to the point of risking bloodshed.

在当局确认阿亚图拉哈梅内伊在袭击中丧生后，许多伊朗人敢于公开庆祝——但尚未到冒着流血风险的地步。

Arian, a resident of a suburb near Tehran, described seeing people “honking in the streets, shouting chants from windows.” Like all people interviewed inside the country, he asked to withhold his full name for fear of retaliation.

德黑兰附近郊区居民阿里安描述说，他看到人们“在街上鸣笛，从窗户喊口号”。像所有在伊朗国内接受采访的人一样，他要求不透露全名，以免遭到报复。

On Sunday morning, Arian said, he saw people dancing and singing in the streets — until they noticed the arrival of armed members of Iran’s Basij, the volunteer militia force aligned with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. “When the Basij showed up, everyone got scared and quickly scattered,” he said.

周日早上，阿里安说，他看到人们在街上跳舞唱歌——直到他们注意到伊朗巴斯基民兵（与革命卫队结盟的志愿民兵部队）武装成员到来。“巴斯基一出现，大家都害怕了，迅速散开，”他说。

Even under aerial bombardment, Iran’s domestic security apparatus was still making a show of force. Basij forces, estimated to be around one million strong around the country, have already been mobilized around the capital.

即使经历空中轰炸，伊朗的国内安全机构仍在展示力量。巴斯基部队在全国估计约有100万人，已在首都周边动员。

“The brutal killing of protesters in January suggests domestic unrest will be met with an iron fist,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “This time under far harsher wartime conditions.”

“1月对抗议者的残酷杀戮表明，国内动乱将遭到铁拳回应，”欧洲对外关系委员会中东与北非项目副主任埃莉·杰兰马耶表示。“而这次是在远为严酷的战时条件下。”

Some airstrikes have begun to target Basij and intelligence headquarters, but experts are divided as to whether airstrikes can inflict enough damage to weaken a deeply entrenched and complex network of security forces across such a large country.

一些空袭已开始针对巴斯基和情报总部，但空袭能否对这个幅员辽阔国家中根深蒂固且错综复杂的安全网络造成足够破坏，专家们依然存在分歧。

“The problem is these are very multilayered targets,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan. “You hit one, but there are so many others. I am not sure how long it can be sustained, munitions wise.”

“问题是这些目标非常多层，”米兰天主教大学伊朗专家阿卜杜勒拉苏尔·迪夫萨拉尔说。“你击中一个目标，还有其他许多目标。我不确定在弹药方面能维持多久。”

周日袭击后，德黑兰上空的烟雾。

Could Iran’s current regime survive?

伊朗现政权能否存续？

Even as strikes wiped out several of Iran’s top political and military leaders, official statements went to great lengths to show the system was prepared for the shock and still functioning.

尽管袭击消灭了伊朗多名最高层政治和军事领导人，但官方声明极力显示该体制已为这一冲击做好准备，并仍在运转。

After Ayatollah Khamenei’s death, Iranian officials announced that the government would follow the constitutional framework for selecting the country’s next leader, and that a temporary leadership council would be formed.

哈梅内伊去世后，伊朗官员宣布政府将遵循宪法框架选出下一任领袖，并将成立一个临时领导委员会。

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council who is seen as the de facto leader behind the scenes, stressed that idea in televised comments urging unity after the ayatollah’s death.

被视为幕后实际领导人的伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席阿里·拉里贾尼在电视讲话中强调这一想法，呼吁在阿亚图拉去世后团结一致。

“Throughout history, the Iranian nation has faced even greater challenges; even the Mongols plowed through the entire country, yet the people stood firm and defended their land,” he said. “Such martyrdoms make people resistant and steadfast.”

“纵观历史，伊朗民族曾面临更大挑战；即使被蒙古人横扫，人民仍屹立不倒，保卫家园，”他说。“这种殉道只会让人民更加坚韧不拔。”

But the system could undergo a transformation from within. Mr. Larijani, seen as a pragmatist, is the type of figure observers say could potentially strike a deal with Washington now that Iran’s more ideologically driven supreme leader is gone.

但体制可能从内部发生转变。据观察人士称，在伊朗更重意识形态的最高领袖去世后，被视为务实派的拉里贾尼这类人物可能与华盛顿达成某种协议。

Some ordinary Iranians said that such a deal, if accompanied by an easing of international sanctions on Iran, may be palatable to many residents who have suffered through so many months of instability and a collapsing economy.

一些普通伊朗人表示，如果此类协议伴随国际对伊朗制裁的缓解，对许多饱受数月动荡和经济崩溃之苦的民众来说，或许是可以接受的。

“Most people aren’t chasing deep meaning,” said Payman, 45, a businessman in Tehran. “They just want a normal life: family, work, small goals. If that becomes possible, a lot of people might stop pushing for bigger change.”

“大多数人并不追求深刻意义，”德黑兰45岁的商人帕曼说。“他们只想要正常生活：家庭、工作、小目标。如果这些可以实现，许多人可能停止推动更大的变革。”

But there is also the possibility Iran’s new leaders would turn the state in the opposite direction — making it even more radical. “The risk is that the more hard-line figures emerge,” Mr. Divsallar said.

但伊朗新领导人也有可能将国家推向相反方向——变得更加激进。“风险在于更强硬的人物浮现，”迪夫萨拉尔说。

The fact that the leadership change was brought about by American and Israeli attacks increases that possibility, he said. “That works completely against what people wished for,” he said.

领导层更迭是由美国和以色列袭击造成的，这一事实增加了这种可能性，他说。“这完全违背了人们的期望。”

Could Iran descend into chaos?

伊朗是否会陷入混乱？

周日，德黑兰，一名手持哈梅内伊照片的女子。

Beyond toppling or transforming Iran’s current system is the possibility that the war unleashes chaos in a country of 90 million people that borders seven countries.

除了推翻或改造伊朗现体制之外，还有一种可能性：战争在这个有9000万人口、与七国接壤的国家引发混乱。

There are many potential opponents who could use violence to challenge a weakened state. Some ethnic minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, already have armed opposition groups.

有许多潜在反对派可能利用暴力挑战虚弱的国家政权。有些少数民族，如库尔德人和俾路支人，已经拥有武装反对团体。

Mustafa Hijri, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iran, said that his organization was part of an alliance of groups from Iran’s ethnic minorities, and that among them were parties that “when necessary, may engage in armed resistance as part of their struggle.”

伊朗库尔德民主党领导人穆斯塔法·希吉里表示，他的组织是伊朗少数民族团体联盟的一部分，其中一些党派“在必要时，可能以武装抵抗作为斗争的一部分”。

Officials from two Kurdish groups in exile, who asked not to be identified, said they were planning on trying to restart operations inside the country, aiming to encourage an uprising in Iran’s Kurdish region.

两名要求不具名的流亡库尔德团体官员表示，他们计划尝试在国内重启行动，旨在鼓励伊朗的库尔德地区起义。

Even before the war started, many Iranians were bemoaning the increasingly polarized state of the country in the wake of the brutal crackdowns on the protests.

甚至在战争开始前，许多伊朗人已在哀叹国家在残酷镇压抗议后日益极化的状态。

The government retains an ideological and religious support base that, in the current war, would be highly motivated to fight back against perceived threats. That raises the possibility of internal fragmentation and violence that spills beyond Iran’s borders.

政府仍然得到意识形态和宗教群体的支持，在当前战争中，该群体将奋力反抗他们眼中的威胁。这增加了内部碎片化和暴力外溢的可能性，甚至超出伊朗边界。

On Sunday, Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, an influential cleric in Iran, called for jihad against Israel and the United States, according to remarks published in the semiofficial Mehr news agency.

周日，据半官方的梅尔通讯社发布的言论，在伊朗很有影响力的阿亚图拉纳赛尔·马卡雷姆·设拉子呼吁对以色列和美国发动圣战。

All of these factors create a growing risk of a dangerous insurgency should the state collapse, similar to the insurgency that broke out in Iraq after U.S. forces invaded it in 2003, said Ms. Geranmayeh, the analyst.

分析师杰兰马耶表示，所有这些因素都增加了国家崩溃时爆发危险叛乱的风险，类似于2003年美军入侵伊拉克后爆发的叛乱。

“This is a holy war for them — and they seem willing to burn down the country and region before surrendering,” she said. “If this air campaign succeeds in toppling Iran’s leadership, years of chaos probably lie ahead for the country and its people.”

“对他们来说，这是圣战——他们似乎宁愿将国家和整个地区付之一炬也不肯投降，”她说。“如果这次空中作战成功推翻伊朗领导层，该国及其人民可能面临数年的混乱。”