The sudden and furious attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran this past week, including the killing of the country’s supreme leader, are confirming Xi Jinping’s worldview that hard power is king.

过去一周，美国和以色列军队对伊朗发动了突然且猛烈的攻击，击杀了伊朗最高领袖，这正在印证习近平的一种世界观：硬实力为王。

For years, Mr. Xi, China’s top leader, has warned his country about American military hostility and directed his generals to build a world-class army, or what he called a “Great Wall of Steel,” strong enough to deter the United States and ensure peace on Beijing’s terms.

多年来，中国最高领导人习近平一直警告国内要警惕美国的军事敌意，并指示军方打造一支世界一流的军队——他称之为“钢铁长城”，其强大程度要足以威慑美国，并确保按照北京设定的条件实现和平。

“It is necessary to speak to invaders in the language they know,” Mr. Xi once said. “That is, a war must be fought to deter invasion, and a victory is needed to win peace and respect.”

习近平曾说：“对待侵略者，就得用他们听得懂的语言同他们对话，这就是以战止战、以武止戈，用胜利赢得和平、赢得尊重。”

Mr. Xi’s more than decade-long pursuit of the power to fight fire with fire is now given added urgency because of President Trump’s unapologetic use of military force, which is threatening governments and disrupting a global order that China increasingly sees itself as eventually leading.

十多年来，习近平一直致力于打造以牙还牙的军事能力。如今，由于特朗普总统毫不掩饰地动用军事力量，这一努力显得更加迫切。特朗普的做法不仅威胁各国政府，也正在冲击现有的全球秩序，而中国越来越认为自己终将成为这一秩序的领导者。

While Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump are set to meet in several weeks in Beijing to extend a fragile truce after a punishing trade war last year, the specter of brute American force taking down sovereign leaders like Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and capturing others like President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela remains unsettling for China. Both Ayatollah Khamenei and Mr. Maduro were strategic partners to Beijing.

习近平与特朗普预计将在数周后于北京会晤，以延续去年贸易战后达成的一项脆弱的休战协议。然而，美国以强力手段推翻主权国家领导人——伊朗的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊被击杀、委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被抓捕——仍然令中国感到不安。哈梅内伊和马杜罗都曾是北京的战略伙伴。

Chinese analysts and officials do not believe the United States would target Mr. Xi in the same way, given China’s status as a nuclear power. But Mr. Trump’s embrace of war as a tool to assert American dominance has nonetheless reaffirmed Beijing’s view that the United States remains China’s most enduring threat.

中国的分析人士和官员认为，鉴于中国是一个核武国家，美国不太可能以同样方式针对习近平。但特朗普把战争当作维护美国主导地位工具的做法无疑强化了北京的看法：美国始终是中国最持久的威胁。

9月在北京举行的纪念二战结束80周年阅兵式上，中国展示了核导弹。

One influential Chinese political scientist, Zheng Yongnian at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s campus in Shenzhen, highlighted perceptions in China that the United States was using Israel as a springboard to go to war with Iran. As such, he said, China must prevent geopolitical rivals like Japan and the Philippines — both treaty allies of the United States — from becoming the “Israel of East Asia” and the “Israel of Southeast Asia.”

颇具影响力的政治学者、香港中文大学（深圳）的郑永年指出，中国国内普遍认为，美国利用以色列作为跳板对伊朗发动战争。他说，正因如此，中国必须防止日本和菲律宾等地缘政治对手——这两个国家都是美国的条约盟友——成为“东亚的以色列“和”东南亚的以色列“。

“We must avoid these nations being led by the nose by the United States to achieve their own objectives,” Mr. Zheng told The Beijing News.

郑永年在接受《新京报》采访时说：“要避免这些国家像以色列一样牵着美国鼻子走，来达到自己的目的。”

Other analysts, like Shen Dingli, an international relations expert based in Shanghai, said the demonstration of American military might was forcing China to take a “sober look at the balance of power.”

另一些分析人士，如上海的国际关系专家沈丁立则表示，美国军事力量的展示正在迫使中国“冷静审视力量对比”。

“Beijing now sees more clearly the extent of American capabilities,” Mr. Shen said.

沈丁立说：“北京现在更清楚地看到了美国的实力。”

China is watching the conflict not unlike the way it did during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when the powerful display of advanced U.S. military weaponry was a wake-up call to modernize the People’s Liberation Army.

中国正在关注这场冲突，就像当年观察1991年海湾战争那样。当时，美国先进军事武器的强大展示给中国人民解放军敲响了推进现代化的警钟。

Already, China’s military posted a graphic on social media this week listing five lessons from the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Among them were the importance of “superior firepower,” echoing Mr. Xi’s mantra. It also listed the need for “self-reliance,” most likely a reference to China’s bid to reduce its dependence on other countries for critical inputs like energy and defense production.

本周，中国军方已经在社交媒体上发布了一张图表，总结美以对伊朗打击带来的五点教训。其中之一是“武器批判”，这呼应了习近平的一贯论调。图表还提到必须依靠“自己”，这很可能指中国努力减少对其他国家在能源和国防生产等关键要素方面的依赖。

上周四，一个家庭抵达德黑兰参加悼念活动，悼念被美国和以色列空袭炸死的伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。

Top of the list, however, was that China must guard against “the enemy within,” an apparent catchall to describe Beijing’s longstanding fear of foreign spying and any efforts to foment “color revolutions” to overthrow the government. Mr. Xi has built a ruthless security apparatus to guard against such threats, which can be real: Last month, the C.I.A. released a new video aimed at recruiting spies within China’s military, hoping to exploit a sweeping anti-corruption campaign by Mr. Xi that has purged numerous senior commanders.

不过，排在首位的教训是中国必须警惕“内奸”。这一表述显然是一个笼统概念，用来描述北京长期以来对外国间谍活动以及煽动“颜色革命”推翻政府企图的担忧。习近平已经建立起一套强硬的安全体系来防范这些威胁，而这些威胁有时也确实存在：上个月，美国中央情报局发布了一段新视频，试图在中国军队内部招募间谍，希望利用习近平反腐行动清洗大量高级指挥官所带来的不满情绪。

One of the broadest takeaways being discussed in China is to not be lulled into a false sense of security by entering negotiations with Washington. That the first U.S. and Israeli bombs fell on Iran when the parties were still supposed to be in talks struck Beijing as duplicitous and an abuse of American power.

目前中国国内正在广泛讨论的一点是，不要因为与华盛顿谈判而产生虚假的安全感。当美国和以色列的第一枚炸弹落在伊朗时，各方原本仍处于谈判之中，北京视之为虚伪和美国滥用权力。

“The decision to strike while talks were underway conveys a disturbing precedent: Diplomacy is not a forum for sovereign equals but an instrument subject to the whims of the dominant power,” read an editorial in Chinese state media.

中国官方媒体的一篇社论写道：“在谈判仍在进行时发动打击开创了一个令人不安的先例：外交不再是主权国家平等协商的平台，而是受制于主导力量意志的工具。”

Under the Trump administration, Chinese analysts say, the United States has become more unpredictable and more dangerous, forcing China to be increasingly vigilant.

中国分析人士认为，在特朗普政府时期，美国变得更加不可预测，也更加危险，这迫使中国必须更加警惕。

“The strategic takeaway for China is pretty simple,” said Song Zhongping, a former Chinese military officer who is now an independent commentator. “Don’t assume your adversaries will play by the rules. They may strike without warning, and they may do whatever it takes, ignoring both the rules of the game and the rules of war.”

前中国军官、现为独立评论员的宋忠平说：“对中国来说，战略上的结论其实很简单：不要假设你的对手会按规则行事。他们可能在没有任何预警的情况下发动打击，也可能不惜一切代价，无视游戏规则和战争规则。”

1月，委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗和他的妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯被押下直升机，前往曼哈顿的联邦法院。

That has implications for how Beijing assesses Washington’s sincerity at a time when Mr. Trump has signaled that he wants to be less confrontational with China. His administration recently delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing. While that might appear like an olive branch, analysts said Mr. Xi would most likely remain skeptical and undeterred from his military buildup.

这也影响到北京如何评估华盛顿的诚意。特朗普近期表示希望减少与中国的对抗。他的政府最近推迟宣布一项对台湾的军售计划，北京宣称对这个自治岛屿拥有主权。虽然这看起来像是橄榄枝，但分析人士认为，习近平很可能仍然保持怀疑态度，并不会因此放缓军事建设。

“From Beijing’s perspective, the United States may frame its actions as a pursuit of peace, but what it really offers is peace through domination or containment,” said Kirsten Asdal, who leads the China-focused consultancy firm Asdal Advisory Group. “Xi doesn’t want that for China. He wants peace through Chinese victory.”

研究中国问题的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询负责人柯尔斯滕·阿斯达尔说：“在北京看来，美国可能将其行动包装成追求和平，但它真正提供的是通过支配或遏制实现的和平。习近平不希望中国接受这种和平。他希望通过中国的胜利实现和平。”

To accomplish that, Mr. Xi has already created one of the world’s most formidable militaries, one buoyed by a giant navy and advanced weapons like stealth drones and hypersonic missiles that are designed to thwart U.S. attempts to come to Taiwan’s defense if China decides to invade.

为实现这一目标，习近平已经打造出世界上最具实力的军队之一，这支军队拥有规模庞大的海军，以及隐形无人机和高超音速导弹等先进武器。这些武器的设计目的之一就是在中国决定进攻台湾时阻止美国前来支援。

China’s chokehold on the mining and processing of critical minerals used to manufacture a spectrum of modern technologies, from cellphones to precision-guided missiles, has also supercharged Beijing’s leverage in the world, getting Mr. Trump to back down on his tariffs.

中国在关键矿产的开采和加工领域的垄断地位也极大增强了北京在全球的影响力，并迫使特朗普在关税问题上让步。这些矿产被用于制造从手机到精确制导导弹的各种现代技术。

And on Thursday, China’s national legislature released the country’s next five-year plan, which included pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies to further resist U.S. pressure.

此外，中国全国人大上周四公布了新的五年规划，其中包括向人工智能、量子计算以及其他战略技术领域投入大量资源，以进一步抵御美国压力。

中国垄断了许多现代技术所需的关键矿物的开采和加工。位于无锡郊外的一家精炼厂是世界上唯一一家生产超纯镝的工厂，超纯镝是人工智能芯片必需的材料。

Those efforts underscore the view in China that Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump speak the same language when it comes to valuing hard power, but that their means of achieving and wielding it are vastly different.

这些举措凸显出中国的一种看法：在重视硬实力这一点上，习近平与特朗普实际上说的是同一种语言，但两人实现和运用这种力量的方式却截然不同。

Beijing has used America’s military actions as a way to cast itself by contrast as a peaceful nation that champions global stability — despite ample evidence to the contrary, such as China’s aggressive military behavior in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

北京一直利用美国的军事行动将自己塑造成一个倡导全球稳定的和平国家——尽管存在大量相反证据，例如中国在台湾海峡和南海的强势军事行为。

For China, “strength is for self-defense and stability, not expansion,” said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

北京大学全球合作与理解研究院执行院长王栋说，对中国而言，“实力是为了自卫和稳定，而不是为了扩张”。

When the United States seeks strength, he continued, it does so with “disproportionate raw hard power” that ultimately cannot guarantee any of its goals, such as the emergence of a friendly and peaceful government in Iran.

他还说，美国寻求实力时依赖的是“失衡的、赤裸裸的硬实力”，而这种力量最终无法保证实现其目标，例如在伊朗出现一个友好而和平的政府。

“What we are witnessing,” Mr. Wang said, “is the last-ditch efforts of a fading U.S.-led order.”

王栋说：“我们正在所看到的，是一个由美国主导的秩序在走向衰落时的最后挣扎。”

Western analysts are more skeptical about China’s professed modesty, saying Beijing, too, is likely to decide that it needs a larger military presence overseas and will risk becoming engaged in foreign entanglements.

西方分析人士则对中国所宣称的克制态度更加怀疑。他们认为北京也可能认为需要在海外拥有更大的军事存在，并可能因此卷入外国纷争。

“China,” said Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, “will feel the same tractor beam that pulls all great powers toward building capabilities that can reach further from home.”

兰德公司中国研究中心主任裘德·布兰切特说：“中国也会感受到那种吸引所有大国的‘牵引力’，促使它们不断建设能够把力量投射到更远地区的能力。”