Thousands of miles from the attacks in the Middle East, at his company’s headquarters in Toronto, Amar Zaidi confronted what is normally a straightforward logistical task. He needed to ship fabric from a mill in Istanbul to a customer in Shanghai.

在距离中东空袭数千公里之外的多伦多，阿马尔·扎伊迪正在其公司总部面临一项本应简单的物流工作：他需要把一批面料从伊斯坦布尔的工厂运往一位上海客户手中。

But the usual route involved passing through Oman via the Suez Canal — a pathway suddenly fraught with danger. The price of booking a container ship was soaring.

但常规航线需要经苏伊士运河穿过阿曼——这条航道如今突然充满危险。预订集装箱货轮的价格正在暴涨。

Mr. Zaidi’s company, Rebus International, makes yarn and textiles, supplying raw materials to international clothing brands like Calvin Klein and Hugo Boss. Before the war in the Persian Gulf, transporting a container from Turkey to China cost about $2,000, he said. When he tried to book the journey this week, carriers demanded surcharges that multiplied the price to $10,000.

扎伊迪的公司Rebus国际主营纱线与纺织品，为卡尔文·克莱恩、雨果博斯等国际服装品牌供应原材料。他表示，波斯湾战争爆发前，从土耳其向中国运送一个集装箱的运费约为2000美元。而本周他预订航程时，承运商收取的附加费让价格飙升至1万美元。

“It’s chaos,” said Mr. Zaidi, 52, who has worked in the industry for three decades. “It’s the ripple effect. Everything is blamed on the war.”

“一片混乱，”现年52岁、在该行业工作30年的扎伊迪说。“这就是连锁反应。一切问题都被归咎于这场战争。”

Fabric is probably not the first item that springs to mind on the list of cargo waylaid by war. Wildly fluctuating prices for oil and natural gas are the most obvious manifestation, a result of the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the channel linking the Persian Gulf to the rest of the planet.

在各种因战争受阻的货物中，面料或许不是人们第一时间想到的物品。石油与天然气价格剧烈波动才是最直观的表现，这是连接波斯湾与全球各地的霍尔木兹海峡事实上被封锁导致的后果。

But the consequences of upending commerce in much of the Middle East are far broader, and increasingly apparent in industries beyond energy. From industrial commodities to tropical fruits, products needed in one place are getting stuck somewhere else. The longer the hostilities persist, the greater the upheaval for shoppers and businesses throughout the global economy.

但中东大部分商业活动被打乱所带来的影响远不止于此，在能源以外的行业正日益显现。从工业大宗商品到热带水果，一地急需的物资正滞留在另一地。敌对状态持续越久，全球经济中的消费者与企业面临的动荡就越大。

The reverberations amount to a rebuke of the notion that globalization is history, a claim popularized by nationalist movements on multiple continents.

这种连锁效应恰恰驳斥了“全球化已成为历史”的说法——这一论调在各大洲的民族主义运动中甚为流行。

President Trump has pursued a trade war in the name of forcing factory production back to the United States. China and India have pursued versions of self-sufficiency. Yet the war in the Middle East has highlighted the enduring reality of global economic integration. Supply chains are not only intact but expanding, heightening the risks when the movement of goods is interrupted.

特朗普总统以迫使制造业生产回流美国为名发动贸易战。中国与印度也推行了不同形式的自给自足政策。然而，中东战争凸显了全球经济一体化依然根深蒂固的持久现实。供应链不仅完好无损，还在不断扩张，这使得货物运输一旦中断，风险就会随之加剧。

“Every time we get one of these disruptions, we have these predictions that it’s the end of globalization,” said Steven A. Altman, a globalization expert at New York University’s Stern School of Business and co-author of a recent study on the continued expansion of trade and investment across borders. “The narrative is different from the reality.”

“每次出现这样的中断，就有人预言全球化要终结了，”纽约大学斯特恩商学院全球化专家、近期一项关于跨境贸易与投资持续扩张研究的合著者史蒂文·奥尔特曼表示。“叙事与现实并不一致。”

周三，油轮和货轮在霍尔木兹海峡排起长队，这条海峡连接波斯湾与世界其他地区。自冲突爆发以来，该航道基本处于关闭状态。

The turmoil of the Covid-19 pandemic revealed how bottlenecks in shipping can trigger cascading troubles. A floating traffic jam off a port in Southern California strands chemicals needed to make paint in Delaware. It ties up containers that could otherwise be used to load cargo in China, delaying exports of electronics destined for Ireland and pushing up the price of moving cargo everywhere.

新冠疫情的混乱已揭示出航运瓶颈如何引发连锁问题：加州南部港口外的海上拥堵导致特拉华州生产涂料所需的化学品无法运抵；这样的情况使得本可在中国装货的集装箱滞留，从而延误了发往爱尔兰的电子产品出口，并推高全球货运成本。

Such realizations prompted companies to highlight commitments to “supply chain resilience” alongside their usual devotion to efficiency. Retailers like Walmart shifted manufacturing from Asia to Mexico, shrinking the distance between factories and customers to limit their vulnerability to the hazards of global commerce.

这些认识促使企业在一如既往地追求效率之外，还开始强调“供应链韧性”。沃尔玛等零售商将制造业从亚洲转移至墨西哥，缩短工厂与消费者之间的距离，以降低全球贸易风险带来的脆弱性。

But the push toward more regional trade appears to be reversing, according to Mr. Altman’s report.

但奥尔特曼的报告显示，这种向区域贸易靠拢的趋势似乎正在逆转。

From 2020 to 2023, the share of American imports arriving from Mexico and Canada increased to 29 percent, from 26 percent. But over the first nine months of 2025, it dipped to 27 percent.

2020至2023年，美国从墨西哥和加拿大进口商品的占比从26%升至29%。但在2025年前九个月，这一比例回落至27%。

As the pandemic fades into memory, international companies have returned to seeking the lowest-cost suppliers of goods, wherever they may be.

随着疫情逐渐远去，跨国企业重新开始寻找成本最低的供应商，无论这些供应商位于何处。

And as the Trump administration dismantles federal programs aimed at increasing renewable sources of energy like solar and wind power, the nation is more exposed to the implications of higher prices for oil and gas.

与此同时，特朗普政府废除旨在增加太阳能、风能等可再生能源的联邦项目，使美国更易受到油气价格上涨的冲击。

All of which means that the halting of marine traffic through the Persian Gulf is likely to spread dysfunction widely.

这一切都意味着，波斯湾海上运输的中断很可能将混乱扩散至更广范围。

The most immediate crisis centers on energy. Tankers have been attacked. Oil facilities have been shut down. The war has delivered “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency declared on Thursday.

最直接的危机集中在能源领域。油轮遇袭、石油设施关停。国际能源署周四宣布，这场战争造成了“全球石油市场史上最大规模的供应中断”。

Not even the concerted release of oil reserves by 30 nations could prevent the price of oil from again breaching $100 a barrel. The prospect of a sustained increase in energy prices has economists warning of the potential for stagflation, a term coined to describe the impact of shocks in the 1970s: stagnant economic growth and higher prices.

即便30个国家协同释放石油储备，也未能阻止油价再次突破每桶100美元。能源价格持续上涨的前景，让经济学家警告可能出现滞胀——这个词曾被用来形容上世纪70年代石油冲击的后果：经济增长停滞与物价上涨并存。

Higher energy prices make fuel more expensive for trucks, tankers and jets, increasing the costs of moving cargo. Larger bills for gasoline and air-conditioning leave households with less money to spend on goods and experiences — a drag on economic growth.

能源价格上涨导致卡车、油轮和飞机的燃油成本上升，推高货运费用。汽油与空调开支增加，使得家庭可用于消费商品和体验的资金减少，进而拖累经济增长。

Companies that import products into the United States, the world’s largest economy, are grappling with confusion over the future of Mr. Trump’s tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled that he had breached his presidential authority.

向全球最大经济体美国进口商品的企业正陷入困惑：最高法院裁定特朗普超越总统权限后，其关税政策前景尚不明朗。

“We have created equal if not greater uncertainty parameters than during the pandemic,” said Nick Vyas, a supply chain expert at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “It’s a perfect storm for stagflation.”

“我们制造的不确定性因素，即便没有超过疫情期间，也已经与其相当，”南加州大学马歇尔商学院供应链专家尼克·维亚斯表示。“这是一场引发滞胀的完美风暴。”

In Southeast Asia, producers of shrimp and tropical fruits now struggle to transport their wares to Europe and North America. From India to Indiana, farmers are confronting higher prices for fertilizer because of the disruption to stocks produced in the Persian Gulf. The price of aluminum is climbing, given impediments to shipments from Qatar and Bahrain. Helium, a critical element for making computer chips, could soon become scarce.

在东南亚，虾类与热带水果生产商如今难以将产品运往欧洲和北美。从印度到印第安纳州，农民因波斯湾生产的化肥供应中断，从而面临化肥价格上涨。受卡塔尔和巴林航运受阻影响，铝价不断攀升。制造计算机芯片的关键原料氦气也可能很快面临短缺。

“This is not just an oil story,” Mr. Vyas said. “This is an industrial supply story.”

“这不仅仅是石油的问题，”维亚斯说。“这是整个工业供应链的问题。”

越南的热带水果生产商难以获得将产品出口到北美和欧洲的冷藏集装箱。如果海运危机持续下去，中国收获的棉花可能无法按时运抵巴基斯坦，这可能会导致其他地区的纺织企业延迟纱线生产。

The Gulf is a dominant source of urea, the leading form of nitrogen fertilizer. Making it requires ammonia, which is produced with natural gas. So long as energy production is hampered, the ability to make fertilizers will be constrained. Urea prices have already climbed significantly.

海湾地区是尿素的主要供应地，尿素是最主要的氮肥形式。生产尿素需要氨，氨则依赖天然气制造。只要能源生产受阻，化肥生产能力就会受限。尿素价格已大幅上涨。

If farmers economize in their use of fertilizer, that could reduce harvests, diminishing the supply of food and pushing prices higher. In vulnerable countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that could lead to greater malnutrition.

如果农民减少化肥使用，可能导致收成下降、粮食供应减少、价格上涨。在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚的脆弱国家，这可能加剧营养不良问题。

At the center of concern is disruption to shipping lanes and air cargo hubs in the Persian Gulf.

当前最令人担忧的是波斯湾航运通道与航空货运枢纽的中断。

With planes unable to land and refuel at major airports in Dubai and Doha on trips between Europe and Asia, they have had to reroute, often over Central Asia. That has lengthened journeys, requiring more fuel. And that has forced carriers to limit how much cargo they carry.

往返于欧洲与亚洲之间的航班无法在迪拜、多哈等主要机场降落加油，不得不改道，通常需途径中亚。这延长了航程，消耗更多燃油，也迫使航空公司限制货运量。

This is the time of year when major importers tend to negotiate yearlong contracts with ocean carriers. Container shipping prices have been relatively cheap because of a glut of new vessels entering the market. But now ocean carriers are absorbing the likelihood that fuel prices will be significantly higher just as some routes are impeded by the war.

每年这个时候，大型进口商通常会与海运公司协商全年合同。由于大量新船投入市场，集装箱运费此前一直相对低廉。但如今，随着部分航线受战争影响中断，海运公司正在承受燃油价格可能大幅上涨带来的影响。

“It’s certainly just one thing after another in this industry,” said Ryan Petersen, chief executive of Flexport, a global logistics company.

“这个行业真是祸不单行，”全球物流公司Flexport的首席执行官瑞安·彼得森说。