
The war in Iran is threatening a fragile détente between China and the United States, with the two powers now moving to postpone a much anticipated summit meeting after President Trump demanded that China send warships to the Gulf.
伊朗战事正威胁着中美之间本就脆弱的缓和关系。在特朗普总统要求中国向海湾派遣军舰后,两国正着手推迟一场备受期待的峰会。
Mr. Trump on Monday said that he had requested that his visit to Beijing at the end of the month be postponed because of the war. Just a day earlier, he threatened to delay the meeting if China did not contribute warships to end Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is squeezing oil markets.
特朗普周一表示,因战事原因,他已要求推迟原定本月底对北京的访问。就在一天前,他还威胁称,若中国不派遣军舰以解除伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的事实上的封锁,他将推迟会晤——这一封锁正严重冲击全球石油市场。
“I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here,” Mr. Trump said of meeting China’s leader, Xi Jinping. “I’m looking forward to being with him. We have a very good relationship.”
谈及与中国国家主席习近平的会晤,特朗普称:“我很想去,但因为战事,我想留在这里。我期待和他会面,我们关系非常好。”
In a sign the relationship may not be as warm as Mr. Trump says, Chinese officials have reacted coolly to the president’s call for nations to escort merchant vessels through the strait. When asked on Monday about the president’s proposal, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said only that his country called on “all parties to immediately cease military operations.”
不过,中国官方对特朗普呼吁各国为商船护航穿越海峡的提议反应冷淡,这表明两国关系可能并不像特朗普所说的那样融洽。周一被问及总统的这一提议时,中国外交部发言人林剑仅表示,中方呼吁“各方立即停止军事行动”。
Outside of official circles, Mr. Trump’s demand has been met with outright ridicule in China.
在官方层面之外,特朗普的要求在中国民间遭到了毫不掩饰的嘲讽。
One prominent Chinese blogger said the request was so absurd that the U.S. president might as well as invite Iranian warships to escort U.S. vessels. The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, on Sunday asked, “Is this really about ‘sharing responsibility — or is it about sharing the risk of a war that Washington started and can’t finish?”
一位知名中国博主称,这一要求荒谬至极,特朗普还不如干脆邀请伊朗军舰为美国船只护航。中国共产党旗下小报《环球时报》周日质问道:“这真的是‘分担责任’?——还是要分担华盛顿挑动却无力收场的战争风险?”
Other Chinese news outlets, describing the lack of response by other nations, said Mr. Trump had received “a nose full of dust,” or a cold shoulder.
其他中国媒体在报道多国对此无回应时,称特朗普“碰了一鼻子灰”,也就是遭到了冷遇。
特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平去年10月在韩国釜山会晤。
Beijing has little incentive to risk Chinese personnel and ships or undermine ties with Iran, its closest partner in the region. Iran has said it is only targeting vessels linked to the United States and its allies, and is allowing ships carrying oil to China to cross the strait.
北京几乎没有动力让中国人员和船只涉险,也不愿破坏与它在该地区最亲密伙伴伊朗之间的关系。伊朗已表示,仅针对与美国及其盟友有关的船只,允许载有运往中国石油的船只通过海峡。
“This is not a difficult question to answer. Regardless of whether Trump comes or not, China will absolutely not send warships to participate in an escort operation,” said Ding Long from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
上海外国语大学中东研究所的丁隆表示:“这个问题不难回答。无论特朗普来不来,中国绝对不会派军舰参与护航行动。”
Dr. Ding said that sending Chinese naval ships would be “tantamount to entering the war and joining the conflict against Iran” — something China is unwilling to do.
丁隆称,派遣中国海军舰艇“无异于参战,加入对抗伊朗的冲突”——这是中国不愿做的事。
For Mr. Xi, who is working to cement Beijing’s position as a superpower and global leader, contributing Chinese warships would mean submitting to U.S. leadership.
对正致力于巩固中国超级大国与全球领导者地位的习近平而言,派遣军舰意味着屈从于美国的领导。
“From Beijing’s perspective, this is an American war rather than China’s problem,” said Claus Soong, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies who focuses on China’s global strategy. Responding to Mr. Trump’s call to send naval forces would make it look as if “China is following his order,” he said.
德国墨卡托中国研究中心专注于中国全球战略的分析师宋高祖表示:“在北京看来,这是美国的战争,而非中国的问题。”他称,响应特朗普派遣海军的号召,会让外界觉得“中国在听命于他”。
But not responding at all may jeopardize a trade truce between China and the United States. Beijing has been counting on the summit to lower pressure on China as it tries to overhaul a slowing economy. Beijing wants Washington to reduce support for Taiwan, ease restrictions on technology exports, and extend a pause on tariffs struck last year after months of a bruising trade war.
但完全不回应则可能危及中美之间的贸易休战。中国正指望此次峰会能减轻中国面临的压力,以便其振兴放缓的经济,中国希望华盛顿减少对台支持、放宽技术出口限制,并延长去年历经数月激烈贸易战后达成的关税暂停协议。
And while China has invested in renewables and electric vehicles to reduce reliance on oil and other foreign energy sources — as well as stockpiling oil before the U.S. and Israel opened their war on Iran — the country is still affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped through the waterway.
尽管中国已投资可再生能源与电动汽车以减少对石油等外国能源的依赖,并在美以对伊朗开战前储备了石油,但霍尔木兹海峡的封锁仍对中国造成影响。中国高达40%的石油进口需经该水道运输。
上周,一艘原油油轮停泊在中国青岛的港口。
Shipping data since the beginning of the war shows that few Chinese vessels are risking the journey, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. As of Tuesday, at least nine Chinese carriers appeared to be stuck in the Gulf, according to Marine Traffic, a maritime data platform.
美国战略与国际研究中心的分析显示,战事爆发以来的航运数据表明,鲜有中国船只冒险通行。海事数据平台“船舶交通”数据显示,截至周二,至少有九艘中国货轮似乎滞留在海湾地区。
“Everyone benefits from the reopening of the strait,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who said that Beijing may try to mediate or quietly pressure Iran to reopen the strait.
华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示:“海峡重开对各方都有利。”她认为,北京或许会尝试从中斡旋,或私下向伊朗施压以重开海峡。
Doing more to push for the reopening would help Beijing build good will with Washington before the summit, burnish its image as a responsible great power and help China’s partners in the Gulf, she said.
她称,在峰会前更积极推动海峡重开,有助于北京向华盛顿释放善意,塑造负责任大国形象,也能惠及中国在海湾地区的伙伴。
“China just can’t push Iran with one-sided pressure,” Dr. Sun said, adding that Beijing would likely also privately urge the United States and Israel to declare a cease-fire.
孙韵表示:“中国不能仅靠单方面施压来推动伊朗。”她补充说,北京可能还会私下敦促美国和以色列宣布停火。
A delay of the summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi could be in China’s interests, too. If the war drags on, added pressure on Washington could mean more leverage for China.
推迟特朗普与习近平的峰会对中国或许也有利。若战事持续,华盛顿面临的压力增加,可能意味着中国将拥有更多筹码。
“Both Beijing and Washington have expectations for the summit, but it may be that Trump needs the meeting more as a way to demonstrate that he can make a deal,” Mr. Soong said.
宋高祖称:“中美双方都对这场峰会抱有期待,但或许特朗普更需要这场会晤,以此证明他有能力达成协议。”