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伊朗战争和能源短缺帮助中国提升在亚洲影响力

艾莎, MURPHY ZHAO

香港某油库的储油罐。专家表示,中国向部分国家出口石油产品在战争期间缓解了局势,同时也凸显了北京方面在危机时期如何赢得善意。 Joyce Zhou/Reuters

As the war in Iran drags on, China has deepened its influence with fuel-starved neighbors, offering to ease shortages while pushing its renewable energy technology.

随着伊朗战事持续胶着,中国在饱受燃料短缺困扰的邻国中影响力持续深化,一面承诺缓解能源短缺困境,一面推广中国的可再生能源技术。

In the days after the United States and Israel attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, China banned oil-product exports, squeezing Asian countries that rely on its refineries for jet fuel, gasoline and diesel.

美以两国对伊朗发动袭击、霍尔木兹海峡关闭后的数日里,中国叫停了成品油出口,这让依赖中国炼厂供应航空燃油、汽油与柴油的亚洲国家处境雪上加霜

Across Asia, governments are petitioning Beijing to blunt the war’s impact. Unlike the rest of the region, China is dealing from a position of strength. It is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, but it has amassed huge reserves, spent decades reducing its dependence on foreign oil and poured hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy technology.

亚洲各国政府纷纷向北京求助,希望其缓解战争带来的冲击。与该地区其他国家不同,中国处于强势地位。中国是全球最大的原油进口国,但它已积累了庞大的战略石油储备,数十年来持续降低对海外石油的依赖,并向清洁能源技术领域投入了数千亿美元。

Vietnam appealed to Beijing over its looming jet fuel shortage. The Philippines asked China not to restrict fertilizer exports. After a visit to China last month to press the subject, Australia’s foreign minister said Beijing would cooperate with Australian companies on jet fuel shipments.

越南就迫在眉睫的航空燃油短缺问题向北京求援;菲律宾请求中国不要限制化肥出口;澳大利亚外长上月访华进行交涉后表示,北京将与澳大利亚企业合作保障航空燃油运输。

The outreach produced assurances from China to address regional energy security issues as well as commitments from other countries to advance diplomatic dialogue with Beijing and, in some cases, cooperate on future renewable energy projects, according to government readouts. The diplomacy kept some Chinese fuel flowing, helping Asia avoid some of the worst-case scenarios that experts feared at the start of the war.

各国政府发布的公告显示,通过这些外交接触,中国承诺解决区域能源安全问题,相关国家则承诺推进与北京的外交对话,部分国家还表示将在未来的可再生能源项目上开展合作。这些外交斡旋保障了中国部分燃料的持续供应,帮助亚洲地区规避了战争爆发初期专家们担忧的最坏情况。

00biz china energy diplomacy 03 pjgf master1050中国某港口内的风力涡轮机。中国正通过向能源短缺的邻国提供缓解短缺的方案,同时推广其可再生能源技术,从而进一步扩大了在这些国家的影响力。

Since the war began, Beijing has held high-level talks with officials from the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

战争爆发以来,北京已与菲律宾、澳大利亚、越南、柬埔寨、老挝、泰国、缅甸、孟加拉国的官员举行了高层会谈。

China’s message has been consistent: It did not start the war and does not want the Strait of Hormuz closed off — but it does offer an alternative to fossil fuels.

中国传递的立场始终一致:这场战争并非中国发起,中国也不希望霍尔木兹海峡被封锁——但中国能够为各国提供化石燃料之外的替代方案。

Beijing has cast itself as the leader of a future powered by renewable and domestically sourced energy, in contrast to President Trump’s embrace of oil and natural gas, which leaves much of the world exposed to volatility in regions like the Middle East.

北京将自身定位为未来可再生能源和本土能源驱动时代的引领者,这与特朗普总统推崇油气能源的立场形成鲜明对比——后者的能源政策让全球大部分国家都面临中东等地区局势动荡的风险。

“China is stepping in cautiously to support its neighbors,” said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, an independent research group. “They are using this as a soft-power tool to say, ‘We will try to support your energy security with the caveat that China comes first,’ laying the foundations for sales of green technology as a way of security in the future.”

独立研究机构牛津能源研究所中国能源研究主管米哈尔·梅丹表示:“中国正谨慎地介入,为邻国提供支持。他们将此作为软实力工具,传递出‘我们会尽力保障你们的能源安全,但前提是中国利益优先’的信号,同时为未来以绿色技术出口作为能源安全保障的模式奠定基础。”

For years, China has used its economic might and technological know-how to extend its global influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, doling out an estimated $1 trillion in loans and grants for infrastructure projects worldwide, mostly in developing nations. But the war in Iran has allowed it to extend its influence without the reputational risk associated with lending to heavily indebted countries.

多年来,中国借助自身经济实力与技术储备,通过“一带一路”倡议扩大全球影响力,为全球基础设施项目提供了大约1万亿美元的贷款与赠款,其中大部分流向发展中国家。而伊朗战争让中国无需承担向高负债国家放贷带来的声誉风险,便实现了影响力的进一步延伸。

“Chinese officials are aware of the blowback, and they see clean energy as a remedy to the bad image of the Belt and Road Initiative,” said Dan Wang, China director at the Eurasia Group.

欧亚集团中国区总监王丹表示:“中国官方清楚相关负面反应,他们将清洁能源视为修复‘一带一路’倡议不良形象的补救措施。”

Oil continued to flow from China in the first month of the war, though experts caution against reading too closely into export figures, which can swing sharply from month to month. Shipments of jet fuel from China to Vietnam increased 34 percent, fertilizer exports to the Philippines rose 33 percent and diesel exports to the Philippines surged 187 percent in March, compared with the month before.

战争爆发的首月,中国的石油仍在对外出口,不过专家提醒,不要过度解读月度间波动极大的出口数据。3月,中国对越南的航空燃油出口量环比增长34%,对菲律宾的化肥出口环比增长33%,柴油出口环比激增187%。

Asian economies are still reeling from the war’s costs, which have reached a scale not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic halted much of global trade. Economists warn that the longer the strait stays shut, the more devastating the long-term damage will be for a region that still depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil.

亚洲各经济体仍在承受战争带来的经济冲击,其规模已达到自新冠疫情导致全球贸易大面积停摆以来的最高水平。经济学家警告,霍尔木兹海峡关闭的时间越长,对这个依然高度依赖中东石油的地区造成的长期损害就越严重。

00biz china energy diplomacy 02 pjgf master1050电动汽车的生产和出口有助于维持中国出口的强劲势头,这对中国疲软的国内经济至关重要。

But continued shipments of some Chinese oil products to select countries have offered relief and underscored how Beijing deploys carrots in times of crisis to engender good will, analysts and energy experts say.

但分析人士与能源专家表示,中国向特定国家持续供应部分石油产品不仅缓解了当地的燃眉之急,也凸显了北京方面在危机时期如何运用“胡萝卜”策略来赢得善意。

“China’s ban was not a complete ban,” Ms. Wang said. “It was more selective, and it seemed that good diplomatic relations played a big role.”

“中国的禁令并非全面禁止,”王丹说。“它更具选择性,而良好的外交关系显然在其中发挥了重要作用。”

Vietnam and Australia, for example, were beneficiaries because their relationship with Beijing has been improving. “So they did get some fuel, if not the full amount they needed,” said Ms. Wang, who recently traveled to China and met with industry experts.

例如,越南和澳大利亚就是受益者,因为它们与北京的关系一直在改善。“所以它们确实获得了一些燃料,尽管可能未达到所需的全部数量,”王丹说。她最近曾前往中国并与行业专家会面。

At times, China has dangled the prospect of assistance in exchange for acceptance of its political terms. In March, as Taiwan raced to secure new energy sources, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office floated a thinly veiled bargain to the self-governed island, which Beijing claims as its own.

中国有时也会以援助为筹码,要求对方接受其政治条件。3月,就在台湾紧急寻求新能源供应渠道之际,中国国台办向这个北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿抛出了一份几乎不加掩饰的交易条件。

Taiwan, the office said, would enjoy “better resource security after peaceful reunification, with a strong motherland as its backing.” The island imports more than 96 percent of its energy, and around 60 percent of its oil transits through the strait.

国台办表示,台湾在“和平统一后,有强大祖国做后盾,能源资源保障会更好”。台湾超96%的能源依赖进口,约60%的石油运输需途经霍尔木兹海峡。

The war in Iran has exposed many of Asia’s vulnerabilities, and China is not alone in using its resources to keep the region afloat. Japan pledged $10 billion to help Southeast Asian nations cope with soaring oil prices and support factories that supply important equipment to Japanese industry.

伊朗战争暴露了亚洲的脆弱性,而利用自身资源保障地区稳定的并非只有中国。日本承诺提供100亿美元,帮助东南亚国家应对油价暴涨,并支持向日本工业供应重要设备的工厂。

But for China, the war has also created an opportunity to push its renewable energy technology across the region. China dominates the world in manufacturing equipment for solar farms, wind farms and smart grids, as well as in the production of electric vehicles. Sending these goods abroad helps keep China’s exports booming, a critical engine of growth for a stagnating domestic economy.

但对中国而言,这场战争也为其在全亚洲推广可再生能源技术创造了契机。中国在光伏电站、风电场、智能电网设备制造,以及电动汽车生产领域占据全球主导地位。向海外出口这些产品有助于维持中国出口的强劲势头,而出口正是中国国内经济增长乏力之际的核心增长引擎。

“The conflict provides them with a springboard to achieving that objective of becoming an energy powerhouse,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “To the extent that they can use that energy technology as a carrot or stick is useful.”

哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心高级研究员埃里卡·唐斯表示:“这场冲突为他们实现能源强国的目标提供了跳板。只要能将能源技术作为胡萝卜或大棒来使用,对他们而言就是有益的。”

In an opinion essay penned weeks before the start of the Iran war, Chinese state media argued that becoming an “energy powerhouse” would strengthen China’s “strategic initiative in great power competition.” The article reflected Beijing’s broader push to make China more resilient and self-sufficient in energy, raw materials, critical minerals and supply chains.

伊朗战争爆发数周前,中国官方媒体在一篇评论文章中提出,成为“能源强国”将提升中国在“大国博弈中的战略主动”。这篇文章也反映出北京更广泛的努力:增强中国在能源、原材料、关键矿产和供应链领域的韧性与自给自足能力。

China has “fully leveraged the positive role of energy diplomacy,” Wei Xiaowei, director of the International Cooperation Department of the National Energy Administration, wrote in a report days after the war began. He pointed to projects in dozens of countries, many backed by Chinese state-owned enterprises, including wind farms in Kazakhstan and Montenegro and solar plants in the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Algeria.

战争爆发数日后,国家能源局国际合作司司长魏晓威在一份报告中写道,中国已“充分发挥能源外交的积极作用”。他提及了中国在数十个国家的相关项目,其中多数由中国国有企业支持,包括哈萨克斯坦和黑山的风电场,以及阿联酋、阿根廷、阿尔及利亚的光伏电站。

The war in the Middle East has given China an outlet for its glut of electric vehicles, solar panels and other green technology. Chinese solar panel exports more than doubled in March compared with the previous month, while electric vehicle exports also rose despite tariffs aimed at keeping them out of many markets.

中东战事为中国过剩的电动汽车、光伏组件及其他绿色技术产品提供了出口渠道。3月,中国光伏组件出口量较上月增长了一倍多;尽管许多市场为阻止中国产品进入而征收关税,但电动汽车出口量也出现了增长。

Complaints that Chinese manufacturers are flooding the global market with inexpensive goods have softened amid the energy crisis.

能源危机之下,此前针对中国制造商向全球市场低价倾销商品的抱怨有所减弱。

“There are lots of countries that were critical and upset about China’s overcapacity and dumping it in the international market,” Ms. Downs said. “But when you are in the midst of a crisis, that doesn’t look so bad anymore.”

“很多国家此前都对中国的产能过剩、向国际市场倾销的行为表示不满和批评。但当你身处危机之中,这些问题看起来就没那么糟糕了,”唐斯说。

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