Poland will soon host production lines for South Korean tanks. Australia is buying warships from Japan. Canada will send uranium to India, while India offers cruise missiles to Vietnam, and Brazil builds military transport planes for the United Arab Emirates.

波兰即将启用韩国坦克生产线；澳大利亚正从日本采购军舰；加拿大将向印度出口铀，印度则向越南提供巡航导弹；巴西为阿联酋制造军用运输机。

All of these deals were sealed in the past few weeks. Each one represents an attempt by middle powers to protect themselves as the conflict in Iran throttles global energy supplies, and as a high-stakes summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping of China looms.

以上军购协议均在过去数周内敲定。随着伊朗冲突导致全球能源供应受阻，特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平事关重大的峰会迫在眉睫，这些协议交易无不体现了中等强国为自保所作的努力。

Global polls show the world has little trust in the United States and China. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi have both used their enormous leverage over trade and security to coerce or punish. And in response, smaller nations are behaving as if they are stuck in “Godzilla” or “Dune” — moving quietly in small groups, trying not to provoke the wrath of petulant giants.

全球民调显示，世界各国对美中两国均缺乏信任。特朗普与习近平都曾利用自身在贸易和安全领域的巨大影响力，对他国进行胁迫或惩罚。作为回应，小国的处境如同电影《哥斯拉》(Godzilla)或《沙丘》(Dune)中的角色——它们低调地抱团行动，避免触怒喜怒无常的大国。

“It’s fifty shades of hedging,” said Richard Heydarian, a Filipino political scientist at Oxford University. Or, as Ja Ian Chong, a security analyst in Singapore put it, “No party wants to cross Beijing and now Washington, too.”

菲律宾政治学家、牛津大学学者理查德·海达里安称：“这是花样百出的避险策略。”新加坡安全分析师庄嘉颖则表示：“没有任何一方愿意得罪北京，现在也不愿得罪华盛顿。”

2025年，波兰布拉涅沃，波兰士兵在一次训练演习中驾驶韩国制造的K2黑豹坦克。

For countries watching from afar, dread and hope hover over the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, which is scheduled for this week. In Asia, which has been hit hardest and fastest by oil shortages caused by the war and China’s tight control of oil-product exports, the mood is particularly grim. Interviews with officials, and statements from leaders traveling the globe to secure trade and defense deals, suggest that most middle powers feel overwhelmed by the deteriorating world order.

对于远观局势的国家而言，本周将在北京举行的特朗普与习近平会晤让它们既担忧又心存希望。在亚洲，由于战争引发的石油短缺以及中国对石油产品出口的严格管控，该地区受冲击最为严重且速度最快，当地的氛围尤为严峻。多国官员接受采访时的言论，以及各国领导人奔走全球敲定贸易与防务协议的表态，均表明多数中等国家对持续恶化的国际秩序感到无力。

Many believe the summit carries more potential for harm than help. And Mr. Trump’s gut-driven approach to complex issues is the main source of anxiety.

许多国家认为，此次峰会弊大于利。而特朗普凭直觉处理复杂问题的风格正是引发焦虑的主要根源。

For months, officials in Asia have worried that the president might be too eager to make a deal with Mr. Xi, ending weapons sales to Taiwan or agreeing to softened policy language that could make it easier for China to undermine the democratic island.

数月来，亚洲各国官员一直担心，特朗普可能急于与习近平达成协议，从而停止对台军售，或同意软化政策表述，使中国更容易破坏这个民主岛屿的稳定。

“That would be the biggest nightmare,” said one Taiwanese official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government matters. He insisted that reduced support from the U.S. was unlikely.

一位因讨论政府内部事务而不愿透露姓名的台湾官员说：“那将是最大的噩梦。”他坚称美国减少对台支持的可能性不大。

But any concession on Taiwan could lead other American partners to fear abandonment. Beijing’s push for compliance on contested territory elsewhere would be bolstered, from the border with India to the South China Sea.

但是，任何涉及台湾问题的让步都可能导致美国的其他合作伙伴担心被抛弃。从中印边境到南海，中国在争议领土问题问题上要求对方服从的立场也将得到助长。

Vietnamese officials said that if President Trump makes a conciliatory gesture or flatters Xi, even without bigger compromises, China will gain leeway to press harder on smaller countries.

越南官员表示，如果特朗普总统做出和解姿态或对习近平大加赞扬，即使没有更大的让步，中国也将获得更多回旋余地，从而对小国施加更大压力。

Another concern being discussed across the region: that Mr. Trump might alter long-term security plans in exchange for better economic terms with China.

该地区正在讨论的另一个担忧是，为了换取与中国更有利的经济条款，特朗普可能会调整长期安全部署。

Mr. Trump’s decision to redirect a carrier strike group from the Pacific and munitions from South Korea for the war in Iran may have created momentum for broader redeployments. When the Pentagon announced it would pull at least 5,000 troops from Germany after Mr. Trump expressed annoyance with the German chancellor, allies in Asia were again reminded how quickly collective deterrence can be weakened.

此前，特朗普为伊朗战争而调遣太平洋航母战斗群、从韩国抽调军火，这些决定可能为更广泛的部队重新部署造势。特朗普对德国总理表达不满后，五角大楼宣布从德国撤出至少5000名士兵，这再次令亚洲盟友意识到，集体威慑体系可能迅速削弱。

5月，美军士兵在波兰参加北约军事演习。美国可能将从德国维尔塞克基地撤出第2骑兵团斯特赖克旅，特朗普总统此前曾作此宣布。

Mr. Trump has threatened in the past to make troop withdrawals from Japan, which hosts around 53,000 American military personnel — more than any other country — and South Korea, where another 24,000 Americans are stationed. If he could get something big from Mr. Xi for a drawdown, would he turn down the deal?

特朗普曾威胁从日本和韩国撤军，日本驻有约5.3万名美军，为全球最多，韩国驻有2.4万名美军。如果能通过缩减驻军从习近平那里换取重大利益，特朗普会拒绝这笔交易吗？

Analysts noted that plans opposed by China, such as AUKUS, a pact between Australia, England and the U.S. designed to counter Beijing’s influence by equipping Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and advanced technology, could also be suddenly canceled.

分析人士指出，中国反对的其他计划也有可能被突然取消，例如由澳大利亚、英国和美国组成的AUKUS联盟，该协议旨在为澳大利亚配备核潜艇及先进技术，制衡北京的影响力。

“The sense that U.S. allies have to look to one another because they can no longer look to America is very real,” said Hugh White, a former Australian intelligence official who teaches strategic studies at the Australia National University.

澳大利亚国立大学战略研究教授、前情报官员休·怀特表示：“盟友们真切地意识到，它们无法再依赖美国，只能彼此依靠。”

That sentiment is much stronger than “the cautious public language” of national leaders might suggest, he added.

他还说，这种情绪远比各国领导人“谨慎的公开言论”要强烈得多。

European and Asian officials often talk privately in frank terms about giving up their faith in America, prompting a no-turning-back effort to diversify away from the United States. In casual discussions with reporters, they can sound a lot like Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, who received a standing ovation in Davos this year for a speech that declared, “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”

欧洲和亚洲官员私下经常坦言，已对美国失去信心，并着手摆脱对美依赖，展开了不可逆转的多元化努力。在与记者的非正式交谈中，他们的语气往往与加拿大总理马克·卡尼如出一辙——今年达沃斯论坛上，卡尼的演讲赢得全场起立鼓掌，他宣称：“我们正身处秩序断裂的时期，而不是过渡时期。”

But in public, they’re more circumspect. Some officials admit their countries are trying to buy time and evade Mr. Trump’s fits of pique, while continuing the performance of imperial fealty.

但在公开场合，他们更为谨慎。部分官员承认，他们的国家正设法拖延时间、避免触怒特朗普，同时继续表演对帝国的效忠。

2026年3月，在韩国举行的韩美自由盾牌联合军演期间，美军官兵正在参加联合演习。

South Korean officials have simply expressed resignation over American military diversions, after making clear they felt betrayed in 2004, when President George W. Bush announced plans to move troops from Asia to the war in Iraq. Australia, Taiwan and Japan publicly and repeatedly stress the value of American leadership without caveats — even as U.S. tariffs and the war Mr. Trump started with Iran kneecap their economies.

韩国官员对美国的军事部署调整仅表示无奈，而在2004年小布什总统宣布将部队从亚洲调往伊拉克参战时，他们曾明确表示感觉遭到背叛。澳大利亚、台湾和日本则反复公开强调美国领导力的价值，而且不附带任何条件——即便美国关税政策与特朗普挑起的伊朗战争正重创它们的经济。

Walking with Caution

谨慎前行

No one wants to be seen stepping out of line.

无人愿被视作越界。

Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been bolder than most in trying to foster stronger relationships with other countries. Yet even as she crisscrossed the region promoting military cooperation, officials in Tokyo worried about how Washington would view her efforts.

日本新首相高市早苗在寻求加强与其他国家的关系方面比大多数领导人都更为大胆。但即便她奔走地区各国、促进军事合作，东京官员仍担忧华盛顿会如何看待她的这些努力。

“The Japanese don’t want Takaichi’s security cooperation and tour, especially to Australia, to be seen as a version of Mark Carney,” said Michael J. Green, the author of several books on Japan, and chief executive of the United States Study Centre at the University of Sydney.

“日本人不希望高市早苗的安全合作及出访——尤其是对澳大利亚的访问——被视为马克·卡尼式的举动，”迈克尔·格林表示，他著有多部关于日本的著作，现任悉尼大学美国研究中心主任。

今年3月，加拿大总理马克·卡尼与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在新德里海得拉巴府会晤前合影。

Others have apparently reached the same conclusion. Mr. Carney’s recent visits to India and Australia did not yield strong statements from their leaders echoing his criticism of great power rivalry or his warning that if middle powers are “not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

其他国家也得出了同样的结论。卡尼近期访问了印度与澳大利亚，印澳两国领导人并未发表强有力的声明，以呼应卡尼对大国竞争的批评，或他关于“如果中等国家不在谈判桌旁，就会成为盘中餐”的警告。 

At the same time, many countries — including some that are benefiting from the thickening of middle-power bonds — have been careful not to anger the world’s other hegemon, China.

与此同时，许多国家——包括那些受益于中等国家联盟强化的国家——都在小心翼翼，避免激怒另一个霸权——中国。

Nations managing their own disputes with Beijing, such as Indonesia, have done less to rally around Japan than some in Tokyo would have liked, since Ms. Takaichi became embroiled in a diplomatic crisis after telling her Parliament that if China attacked Taiwan, Japan could respond militarily.

像印度尼西亚这样正处理同北京之间争端的国家，在团结支持日本方面所做的努力远不及东京的期望。此前，高市早苗在向议会表示“如果中国攻击台湾，日本可以采取军事行动”后，卷入了一场外交危机。

Vietnamese officials even pressed Ms. Takaichi to avoid directly criticizing China in her speech at a university on May 2 in Hanoi, according to diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions. It is not clear if adjustments were made. Chinese officials later condemned her diplomatic efforts as “war preparation.”

据几位因透露敏感讨论而要求匿名的外交官称，越南官员甚至要求高市早苗5月2日在河内一所大学演讲时，避免直接批评中国。目前尚不清楚她是否作出了调整。中方随后谴责她的外交举动是“备战”。

And yet, in a sign of how middle powers are still doing more while saying less, the two countries signed six cooperation agreements, including one on satellite data sharing and another to secure deliveries for Vietnam’s largest oil refinery, potentially easing shortages.

但中等国家多做少说的策略仍在延续：日本和越南签署六项合作协议，其中包括一项关于卫星数据共享的协议，以及另一项旨在保障越南最大炼油厂原油供应的协议，这有望缓解供应短缺问题。

特朗普总统于3月在白宫与日本首相高市早苗共进晚餐时发表讲话。

“The U.S. has become more unreliable, so it makes sense to try to develop alternatives,” said Robert O. Keohane, an international relations professor at Princeton University. Even if what’s been formed so far is insufficient, he added, “having a weak alternative is better than having no alternative at all.”

普林斯顿大学国际关系教授罗伯特·基欧汉表示：“美国可靠性下降，寻求替代方案是合情合理的。”他还说，即便现有合作尚不完善，“有一个薄弱的替代方案也胜于毫无选择。”