Peace and stability will be the public message when President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, meet in Beijing this week. But behind the diplomatic platitudes, both governments are quietly preparing for something harsher — a prolonged economic war, mapping vulnerabilities and sharpening tools to inflict pain on the other.

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平本周在北京举行会面时，公开传递的信息将是和平与稳定。但在外交辞令背后，两国都悄然在为更严峻的局面做准备——一场可能持续很久的经济战，双方都在摸排对方的软肋，并不断打磨可以施加压力的工具。

In recent weeks, China has made clear that it no longer fears another escalation. It reached for a new legal mechanism to counter U.S. sanctions. It blocked Meta’s acquisition of a promising A.I. start-up founded in China. And it codified rules aimed at punishing foreign businesses that comply with Western efforts to pull back from China.

近几周来，中国已明确表示，不再惧怕进一步升级冲突。它祭出一项新的法律机制，以反制美国制裁；阻止了Meta收购一家在华成立的颇具前途的人工智能初创公司；并制定了针对配合西方撤离中国行动的外国企业进行惩罚的法规。

The moves are part of Beijing’s broader campaign to push back against what it sees as Washington’s intensifying efforts to constrain its economy and technological rise. Over the past year, the two countries have ratcheted up their economic offensives, whacking each other with steep tariffs, restricting the flow of rare earths and critical technologies and imposing sanctions on major industrial companies.

这些举措是中国更广泛反击行动的一部分，北京认为华盛顿正在加大对中国经济与科技崛起的遏制力度。过去一年来，两国不断升级经济攻势，相互加征高额关税，限制稀土和关键技术的流通，并对大型工业企业实施制裁。

Whether Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump can agree to place even modest guardrails on their expanding economic weapons will be a critical litmus test of whether their meeting succeeds.

习近平与特朗普能否同意为他们不断扩大的经济武器库设置哪怕是最低限度的护栏，将是衡量他们此次会晤成功与否的关键试金石。

“China is signaling more strongly that they are locked and loaded,” said Andrew Gilholm, a China expert at Control Risks, a consulting firm. “We are on the brink of a much more frequent or widespread use of Chinese countermeasures against U.S. sanctions.”

“中国正在释放更为强烈的他们已严阵以待的信号，”咨询公司化险集团的中国问题专家安德鲁·吉尔霍姆说。“我们正处于中国更频繁或更广泛地采取反制措施来应对美国制裁的边缘。”

It is a high-stakes moment a decade in the making. In his first term, Mr. Trump warned that confrontation with China over technology and trade was unavoidable. He placed tariffs on certain Chinese sectors and singled out companies for sanctions. China responded with restrained, largely symbolic countermeasures, as regulators drafted laws mirroring U.S. actions, creating blacklists and export control lists.

这是一个酝酿了十年之久的高风险时刻。在特朗普的第一任期内，他曾警告说，与中国在技术和贸易上的对抗是不可避免的。他对部分中国行业加征关税，并针对特定企业实施了制裁。彼时，中国的反应较为克制，大多停留于象征性层面，同时监管部门也在起草与美国做法相对应的法律，建立黑名单和出口管制清单。

But what started as a game of tit-for-tat has escalated, reaching across global supply chains and leaving countries and companies scrambling to manage the fallout. After years of mostly reacting, China is going after entities that comply with Washington’s sanctions.

然而，最初的针锋相对已经升级，波及全球供应链，令各国和众多企业疲于应对。在多年以被动应对为主后，现在中国开始将矛头指向那些配合华盛顿制裁行动的实体。

The growing concern is that both countries will wield their expanding regulatory regimes as economic cudgels, dragging other nations and businesses into the fight. Business leaders and experts warn that the two superpowers are increasingly forcing the world to choose a side: China or the United States.

外界日益忧虑的是，两国将把各自不断扩张的监管体系当作经济大棒挥舞，把其他国家和企业拖入这场争斗。商界领袖和专家警告，这两个超级大国正日益迫使世界在中美之间选边站队。

In April, Beijing announced sweeping rules giving regulators the power to investigate corporate records, interrogate employees and bar companies or executives from leaving China if they are found to be helping shift supply chains out of the country.

今年4月，北京宣布了一套影响深远的规定，赋予监管部门调查企业档案、盘问员工的权力，如果发现企业帮助将供应链转移出中国，可以禁止公司或高管离境。

That puts companies manufacturing goods for Americans in a difficult position. Many have already moved factories to countries like Vietnam or Mexico to avoid sky-high tariffs on Chinese-made products, while others have drawn up contingency plans to do so.

这让为美国市场生产商品的企业陷入两难。许多企业已将工厂迁往越南、墨西哥等国，以规避对中国制造征收的高额关税，另一些企业也制定了相应的应急预案。

The rules also open a new corporate battlefront that Beijing previewed in 2024 after PVH, the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, stopped sourcing cotton from Xinjiang, the western Chinese region. The United States has imposed an import ban on cotton from Xinjiang because of its association with forced labor.

这些规则也开启了企业冲突的新前线。北京在2024年曾针对PVH集团（Calvin Klein和Tommy Hilfiger的母公司）停止采购新疆棉而采取行动。美国以存在强迫劳动为由，对新疆棉实施了进口禁令。

China accused PVH of discrimination, initiated an investigation and eventually placed the company on its “unreliable entity list,” a designation that can carry legal consequences, including restrictions on executives from leaving the country.

中国指控PVH存在歧视性措施，启动了调查，最终将其列入“不可靠实体清单”——这一认定可带来法律后果，包括限制高管离境。

It no longer appears to be an isolated case of retaliation. “It is posing both a risk and a dilemma: ‘Will you break our law or American law?’” said Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council.

这似乎已不再是一个孤立的报复案例。美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森(Sean Stein)表示：“这既带来了风险，也导致了两难困境：‘你是要违反我们的法律，还是要违反美国的法律？’”

The shift in China’s regulatory posture accelerated last year after a series of aggressive actions from Washington, including raising tariffs to 145 percent, imposing fees on Chinese ships at U.S. ports and restricting critical technologies such as semiconductors, chemicals and machinery.

在华盛顿采取一系列激进举措之后，包括将关税提高至145%、对中国船舶在美国港口停靠征收费用，以及限制半导体、化学品和机械设备等关键技术出口，中国监管态度的转变自去年起开始加速。

“Now it has become a hot stove approach: ‘We need to show that when the U.S. takes an action, they will touch a hot stove and get burned,’” Mr. Stein said, summarizing the Chinese perspective.

“现在变成了一种热炉策略：‘我们要让对方知道，美国每采取一个行动，就会碰到一个滚烫的炉子，就会被烫伤，’”谭森以此来总结中方的态度。

This approach means putting new regulatory weapons into action, as Beijing did this month after Washington placed sanctions on five Chinese refineries over their ties to Iran. China ordered the companies to defy the sanctions, invoking a blocking measure it enacted in 2021 to shield companies from foreign laws it opposes.

这一策略意味着将新的监管工具付诸实践。例如在本月，在华盛顿以与伊朗存在关联为由对五家中国炼油厂实施制裁后，中国随即下令要求这些公司无视制裁，动用了在2021年制定的一项反制措施，旨在保护企业免受其反对的外国法律的影响。

China’s state-controlled media trumpeted the move as “a pivotal step in China’s transition from building a legal reserve to the practical application of its foreign-related legal weapon,” casting it as a stand against American hegemony on behalf of the world.

中国的官方媒体高调宣传此举是“我国涉外法治武器从制度储备走向实战落地的关键一步”，并将其定性为呼应国际社会反对霸权的普遍诉求。

The United States is “swinging the sanctions stick at law-abiding Chinese enterprises, severely infringing on the rights of Chinese business,” read the commentary in People’s Daily, China’s largest daily newspaper and the mouthpiece for the ruling Communist Party.

美国“将制裁大棒挥向中国守法经营企业，严重侵害我国经营主体合法权益”，中国发行量最大的日报、共产党党报《人民日报》的评论文章写道。

The five refineries, including Hengli Petrochemical Refinery, one of China’s largest private refineries, are among the biggest buyers of restricted Iranian oil and central to China’s industrial policy.

这五家炼油企业（包括中国最大的民营炼油企业之一恒力石化）是受限伊朗石油的重要买家，也是中国产业政策的重要组成部分。

The Chinese government has come to see Washington’s economic nationalism and trade protectionism as part of a longer trend that threatens China’s economy and national security.

中国政府将华盛顿的经济民族主义和贸易保护主义视为一种长期趋势的组成部分，而这股趋势正对中国的经济与国家安全构成威胁。

To stave off a deep economic downturn set off by a real estate crisis, Beijing has propped up manufacturing through subsidies and tax benefits, leaving China with a huge and growing trade surplus with much of the world.

为应对房地产危机带来的经济严重滑坡，北京通过补贴和税收优惠扶持制造业，使中国对全球多数国家的贸易顺差不断扩大。

Sanctions and restrictions “will pose a serious danger to the safety of China’s supply chain, so China needs to deal with this challenge in a more systemic way, not only to identify and provide early warning to the possible threat, but also to cope with this threat when it has already occurred,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

复旦大学美国研究中心主任吴心伯表示，制裁和限制“将对中国供应链安全构成严重威胁，因此中国需要系统性应对，不仅要识别可能的威胁并提供预警，还要在威胁已经发生时予以应对”。

“China,” he added, “needs to establish a legal framework for dealing with these kinds of challenges in the long term.”

“从长远来看，中国需要建立一个法律框架来应对这类挑战，”他补充说。