茉莉花新闻网

中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

美以曾计划扶植伊朗强硬派前总统上台

MARK MAZZETTI, JULIAN E. BARNES, FARNAZ FASSIHI, RONEN BERGMAN

伊朗前总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德于2024年在德黑兰登记参选总统。 Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times

Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country.

在以色列空袭炸死伊朗最高领袖和其他高官、拉开战争序幕几天后,特朗普总统公开表示,最好能由伊朗“内部的某个人”接管这个国家。

It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views.

事实证明,美国和以色列在这场冲突伊始已经有了一个特定且非常出人意料的人选:马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德,这位前伊朗总统以其强硬的反以和反美立场而闻名。

But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Mr. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the U.S. officials who were briefed on it.

但据听取过相关简报的美国官员称,这个由以色列人制定、并曾征询艾哈迈迪-内贾德意见的大胆计划很快就出了岔子。

Mr. Ahmadinejad was injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said. He survived the strike, they said, but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.

美国官员和艾哈迈迪-内贾德的一位副手表示,在战争的第一天,以色列对艾哈迈迪-内贾德位于德黑兰的住宅发动了空袭,意在将他从软禁中解救出来,但他却在空袭中受了伤。他们说,他在这场空袭中幸存,但死里逃生之后,他对政权更迭计划感到幻灭。

He has not been seen publicly since then and his current whereabouts and condition are unknown.

自那以后,他就再也没有公开露面,目前的下落和状况均不得而知。

19dc iran ahmadinejad teh qpmb master10502月28日,即美以联军对伊朗发动空袭的首日,德黑兰爆炸现场升起的浓烟。

To say that Mr. Ahmadinejad was an unusual choice would be a vast understatement. While he had increasingly clashed with the regime’s leaders and had been placed under close watch by the Iranian authorities, he was known during his term as president, from 2005 to 2013, for his calls to “wipe Israel off the map.” He was a strong supporter of Iran’s nuclear program, a fierce critic of the United States and known for violently cracking down on internal dissent.

说艾哈迈迪-内贾德是一个不同寻常的选择绝对是轻描淡写了。尽管他与该国领导人的冲突日益增多,并受到伊朗当局的严密监视,但在2005年至2013年担任总统期间,他曾因呼吁“将以色列从地图上抹去”而闻名。他是伊朗核计划的坚定支持者、美国的激烈批评者,并以暴力镇压内部异见而著称。

How Mr. Ahmadinejad was recruited to take part remains unknown.

艾哈迈迪-内贾德如何被招募参与其中,目前仍是个谜。

The existence of the effort, which has not been previously reported, was part of a multistage plan developed by Israel to topple Iran’s theocratic government. It underscores how Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel went into the war not only misjudging how quickly they could achieve their objectives but also gambling to some degree on a risky plan for leadership change in Iran that even some of Mr. Trump’s aides found implausible. Some American officials were skeptical in particular about the viability of putting Mr. Ahmadinejad back into power.

这项此前未被报道过的行动是以色列为推翻伊朗神权政府而制定的多阶段计划的一部分。它凸显了特朗普和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在发起战争时不仅低估了实现目标所需的时间,而且在某种程度上将赌注押在一个危险的伊朗领导层更迭计划上,连特朗普的一些助手都觉得这个计划难以实现。一些美国官员尤其对艾哈迈迪-内贾德重新掌权的可行性表示怀疑。

“From the outset, President Trump was clear about his goals for Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, dismantle their production facilities, sink their navy, and weaken their proxy,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in response to a request for comment about the regime change plan and Ahmadinejad. “The United States military met or exceeded all of its objectives, and now, our negotiators are working to make a deal that would end Iran’s nuclear capabilities for good.”

“从一开始,特朗普总统对‘史诗愤怒行动’的目标就很明确:摧毁伊朗的弹道导弹,拆除他们的生产设施,击沉他们的海军,削弱他们的代理势力,”白宫发言人安娜·凯利在回应关于政权更迭计划和艾哈迈迪-内贾德的置评请求时表示。“美军已达成或超额完成了所有目标,现在,我们的谈判代表正在努力达成一项能够彻底终结伊朗核能力的协议。”

A spokesperson for Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence agency, declined to comment.

以色列对外情报机构摩萨德的发言人拒绝置评。

U.S. officials spoke during the early days of the war about plans developed with Israel to identify a pragmatist who could take over the country. Officials insisted that there was intelligence that some within the Iranian regime would be willing to work with the United States, even if those people couldn’t be described as “moderates.”

在战争爆发的最初几天,美国官员曾谈及与以色列共同制定的计划,旨在寻找一位能够接管伊朗的务实主义者。官员们坚称,有情报显示伊朗政权内部有些人愿意与美国合作,尽管这些人不能被称为“温和派”。

Mr. Trump was enjoying the success of the raid by U.S. forces to capture Venezuela’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, and the willingness of his interim replacement to work with the White House — a model that Mr. Trump appeared to think could be replicated elsewhere.

特朗普当时正沉浸在美军成功突袭抓获委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的喜悦之中,同时也对马杜罗的临时继任者愿与白宫合作感到满意——特朗普似乎认为这种模式可以在其他地方复制。

In recent years, Mr. Ahmadinejad has clashed with regime leaders, accusing them of corruption, and rumors have swirled about his loyalties. He was disqualified from numerous presidential elections, his aides were arrested and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s movements were increasingly restricted to his home in the Narmak section of eastern Tehran.

近年来,艾哈迈迪-内贾德与伊朗政权领导人发生冲突,指责他们腐败,关于他忠诚度的谣言也四处流传。他多次被取消总统选举的参选资格,他的助手被捕,艾哈迈迪-内贾德的活动范围也日益被限制在他德黑兰东部纳尔马克区的家中。

19dc iran ahmadinejad 2 master10502014年,伊朗前总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德在德黑兰工人阶级聚居区纳尔马克的“72号广场”自家门外向支持者讲话,并接收求助信件。

That American and Israeli officials saw Mr. Ahmadinejad as a potential leader of a new government in Iran is further evidence that the war in February was launched with the hopes of installing more pliable leadership in Tehran. Mr. Trump and members of his cabinet have said that the goals of the war were narrowly focused on destroying Iran’s nuclear, missile and military capabilities.

美国和以色列官员将艾哈迈迪-内贾德视为伊朗新政府的潜在领导人进一步证明,2月发动的这场战争旨在扶植一个更易于控制的德黑兰领导层。特朗普及其内阁成员曾表示,战争的目标仅限于摧毁伊朗的核能力,以及导弹和军事能力。

There are many unanswered questions about how Israel and the United States planned to put Mr. Ahmadinejad in power, and the circumstances surrounding the airstrike that injured him. American officials said that the strike — carried out by the Israeli Air Force — was meant to kill the guards watching over Mr. Ahmadinejad as part of a plan to release him from house arrest.

关于以色列和美国计划如何让艾哈迈迪-内贾德掌权,以及导致他受伤的空袭的情况,还有许多未解之谜。美国官员表示,由以色列空军执行的这次空袭旨在杀死看守艾哈迈迪-内贾德的卫兵,这是将其从软禁中解救出来的计划的一部分。

On the first day of the war, Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. The strike at Ayatollah Khamenei’s compound in central Tehran also blew up a meeting of Iranian officials, killing some officials whom the White House had identified as more willing to negotiate over a change in government than their bosses.

在战争的第一天,以色列的空袭炸死了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。对哈梅内伊位于德黑兰市中心的官邸的空袭还打击了一个伊朗官员正在举行的会议,炸死了一些被白宫认为比其上司更愿意就政府更迭进行谈判的官员。

There were also initial reports at the time in the Iranian media that Mr. Ahmadinejad had been killed in the strike on his home.

当时伊朗媒体也有初步报道称,艾哈迈迪-内贾德在针对其住所的空袭中丧生。

The strike did not significantly damage Mr. Ahmadinejad’s house at the end of a dead-end street. But the security outpost at the entrance to the street was struck. Satellite imagery shows that building was destroyed.

空袭并没有对艾哈迈迪-内贾德位于一条死胡同尽头的房屋造成严重破坏。但位于街道入口处的安全哨所被击中。卫星图像显示该建筑被毁。

In the days that followed, official news agencies clarified that he had survived but that his “bodyguards” — in actuality Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members who were both guarding him and holding him under house arrest — were killed.

在随后的几天里,官方通讯社澄清说他幸存了下来,但他的“保镖”——实际上是负责看守并软禁他的伊斯兰革命卫队成员——被炸死了。

19dc iran ahmadinejad protest vmbg master1050上个月,巴斯基准军事组织手持新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的旗帜和照片。

An article in The Atlantic in March, citing anonymous associates of Mr. Ahmadinejad, said that the former president had been freed from government confinement after the strike at his house, which the article described as “in effect a jailbreak operation.”

《大西洋》3月的一篇文章援引艾哈迈迪-内贾德匿名亲信的话称,在其住所遭到空袭后,这位前总统已被从政府的监禁中解救出来,这篇文章将空袭描述为“实际上是一次越狱行动”。

After that article, an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad confirmed to The New York Times that Mr. Ahmadinejad saw the strike as an attempt to free him. The associate said the Americans viewed Mr. Ahmadinejad as someone who could lead Iran, and had the capability to manage “Iran’s political, social and military situation.”

在那篇文章发表之后,艾哈迈迪-内贾德的一位副手向《纽约时报》证实,艾哈迈迪-内贾德将此次空袭视为一次解救他的尝试。这位副手说,美国人认为艾哈迈迪-内贾德是能够领导伊朗的人,并认为他有能力管理“伊朗的政治、社会和军事局势”。

Mr. Ahmadinejad would have been able “play a very important role” in Iran in the near future, the associate said, suggesting that the United States saw him as similar to Delcy Rodriguez, who took power in Venezuela after American forces seized Mr. Maduro and has since worked closely with the Trump administration, the person said.

这位副手表示,艾哈迈迪-内贾德本可以在不久的将来在伊朗“发挥非常重要的作用”,并暗示美国将他视为类似于德尔西·罗德里格斯的人物——这名知情人士称,在美军抓获马杜罗后,罗德里格斯在委内瑞拉上台,此后一直与特朗普政府密切合作。

During his presidency, Mr. Ahmadinejad was known both for his hard-line policies and his often outlandish fundamentalist pronouncements, such as his declaration that there was not a single gay person in Iran and his denial of the Holocaust. He spoke at a conference in Tehran called “A World Without Zionism.”

在其担任总统期间,艾哈迈迪-内贾德以其强硬政策和经常发表的古怪原教旨主义言论而闻名,例如他宣称伊朗没有一个同性恋者,以及否认犹太大屠杀。他曾在德黑兰举行的一个名为“没有锡安主义的世界”的会议上发表演讲。

After Mr. Ahmadinejad left office he gradually became something of an open critic of the theocratic government, or at least at odds with Ayatollah Khamenei.

卸任后,他逐渐成为神权政府的公开批评者,至少与阿亚图拉哈梅内伊存在分歧。

Three times — 2017, 2021, and 2024 — Mr. Ahmadinejad tried to run for his previous job, but each time Iran’s Guardian Council, a group of civilian and Islamic jurists, blocked his presidential campaign. Mr. Ahmadinejad has accused senior Iranian officials of corruption or bad governance and become a critic of the government in Tehran. While he never was an overt dissident, the regime began to treat him as a potentially destabilizing element.

2017年、2021年和2024年,艾哈迈迪-内贾德曾三次试图竞选他以前的职位,但每次均被由平民和伊斯兰法学家组成的伊朗宪法监护委员会阻止。艾哈迈迪-内贾德指责伊朗高级官员腐败或治理不善,并成为德黑兰政府的批评者。虽然他从未成为公开的异见人士,但该政权开始将他视为潜在的破坏稳定因素。

19dc iran admahdinejad 5 phwj master10502012年,艾哈迈迪-内贾德在纽约联合国大会发表演讲前。

Mr. Ahmadinejad’s ties to the west are far murkier.

艾哈迈迪-内贾德与西方的关系则要模糊得多。

In a 2019 interview with The New York Times, Mr. Ahmadinejad praised President Trump and argued for a rapprochement between Iran and the United States.

在2019年接受《纽约时报》采访时,艾哈迈迪-内贾德称赞了特朗普总统,并主张伊朗与美国实现和解。

“Mr. Trump is a man of action,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said. “He is a businessman and therefore he is capable of calculating cost-benefits and making a decision. We say to him, let’s calculate the long-term cost-benefit of our two nations and not be shortsighted.”

“特朗普先生是一个行动派,”艾哈迈迪-内贾德说。“他是个商人,因此他能够计算成本收益并做出决定。我们对他说,让我们计算一下我们两国的长期成本收益,不要目光短浅。”

In the past few years Mr. Ahmadinejad has made trips out of Iran that further fueled speculation.

过去几年里,艾哈迈迪-内贾德曾数次出访伊朗境外,这进一步引发了猜测。

In 2023, he traveled to Guatemala and in 2024 and 2025 he went to Hungary, trips detailed by New Lines magazine. Both countries have close ties to Israel.

《新线》杂志详尽报道了他2023年前往危地马拉、2024年和2025年前往匈牙利的出访。这两个国家都与以色列关系密切。

The Hungarian prime minister at the time, Viktor Orban, has a close relationship with Mr. Netanyahu. During the trips to Hungary, Mr. Ahmadinejad spoke at a university connected to Mr. Orban.

当时的匈牙利总理维克多·欧尔班与内塔尼亚胡关系密切。在访问匈牙利期间,艾哈迈迪-内贾德在一所与欧尔班有关联的大学发表演讲。

He returned from Budapest just days before Israel began attacking Iran last June. When that war broke out, he kept a low public profile and posted only few statements on social media. His relative silence about a war with a country that Mr. Ahmadinejad had long viewed as Iran’s main enemy was noted by many on Iranian social media.

去年6月,就在以色列开始攻击伊朗的前几天,他从布达佩斯回国。当战争爆发时,他保持着低调的公众形象,仅在社交媒体上发布了寥寥几条声明。他对这场与一个长期被他视为伊朗主要敌人的国家之间的战争保持着相对沉默,这一点引起了许多伊朗社交媒体用户的关注。

Discussion of Mr. Ahmadinejad on Iranian social media picked up after reports of his death, according to an analysis by FilterLabs, a company that tracks public sentiment. But the discussion declined in the weeks following, mainly amounting to confusion about his whereabouts.

一家追踪公众情绪的公司FilterLabs的分析显示,在有关他死讯的报道传出后,伊朗社交媒体上关于艾哈迈迪-内贾德的讨论开始增多。但在随后的几周里,这种讨论有所降温,主要是表达对他此时下落的困惑。

Christiaan Triebert对本文有研究贡献。

Mark Mazzetti是常驻华盛顿特区的调查记者,主要关注国家安全、情报和外交事务。他著有一本关于中央情报局的书。

Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。

Farnaz Fassihi是《纽约时报》联合国分社社长,领导关于该组织的报道。她还报道伊朗新闻,撰写有关中东冲突的新闻已有15年。

翻译:晋其角

点击查看本文英文版。


同类信息

查看全部

茉莉花论坛作为一个开放社区,允许您发表任何符合社区规定的文章和评论。

茉莉花新闻网

        中国茉莉花革命网始创于2011年2月20日,受阿拉伯之春的感召,大家共同组织、发起了中国茉莉花革命。后由数名义工无偿坚持至今,并发展成为广受翻墙网民欢迎的新闻聚合网站并提供论坛服务。

新闻汇总

邮件订阅

输入您的邮件地址:

linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram