Naval blockades, military history has shown, require patience. That is not the leading attribute of the American commander in chief.

军事史告诉我们，海上封锁需要耐心。而这恰恰不是这位美国三军统帅最突出的品质。

So when President Trump imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in April, the quick result he was looking for — a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic — was not in the cards. Wearing down an enemy with a blockade can take months or years, military experts say, and certainly not weeks.

因此，当特朗普总统在4月对伊朗港口实施封锁时，他想要的立竿见影效果——让霍尔木兹海峡重新对商船开放——并不现实。军事专家指出，通过封锁来拖垮敌人，往往需要数月乃至数年，绝非几周就能做到的。

Iran, with thousands of miles of land borders with seven neighbors, and a trade lifeline to its ally Russia across the Caspian Sea, had alternatives. The standoff persisted.

伊朗与七个邻国接壤，拥有绵延数千英里的陆地边界，又与盟友俄罗斯隔里海相望、保有贸易生命线，因此它并非毫无替代选择。僵局由此持续。

“It’s difficult to rapidly bring an adversary to its knees with a blockade,” said Michael Connell, a specialist on the Iranian military at the Center for Naval Analyses in Virginia. “It’s the kind of thing that works well over time but it’s not a quick solution.”

“通过封锁迅速让对手俯首称臣谈何容易，”弗吉尼亚州海军分析中心的伊朗军事专家迈克尔·康奈尔说。“这是一种假以时日才能奏效的手段，而非速决之计。”

Now, as the United States appears closer to a peace agreement with Iran, dropping the American blockade and reopening the strait are among the top priorities. If a deal can be reached, it would end one of the more unique naval standoffs in modern times: a tense stalemate that is neither peace nor raging conflict, between two mismatched adversaries who have exercised their leverage at sea.

如今，随着美伊和谈似乎渐现曙光，解除美国封锁、重开海峡已成为谈判的优先议题。若协议最终达成，将终结现代史上一场颇为罕见的海上对峙——一场介于和平与激烈冲突之间的紧绷僵局，两个实力悬殊的对手各自凭借海上筹码相互角力。

It has featured an increasingly familiar pattern of conflict in an era of technological disruption — the ability of Iran’s speedboats, drones, mines and missiles to hold off America’s arsenal of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers with advanced fighter jets and populations the size of small towns.

这场对峙体现了技术巨变时代一种日益熟悉的冲突模式——伊朗依靠快艇、无人机、水雷与导弹就能牵制美国拥有先进战机、驻军相当于小镇人口规模的核动力航母舰队。

The stalemate at sea has also underscored an old imperative of war. Swift victory without gaining and controlling territory on land is difficult to accomplish. A naval standoff is an attempt at economic and commercial strangulation on the water — seemingly bloodless but with hidden costs and risks for both sides.

这场海上僵局也再次印证了一条古老的战争法则：若不夺取并控制陆地，很难实现速胜。海上对峙不过是一种在海面上实施的经济与商业绞杀，表面看起来不流血，代价与风险却潜藏其中，双方概莫能外。

本月，在德黑兰的瓦利亚斯广场，一块绘有特朗普总统肖像的广告牌描绘了霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的景象。

Indeed, Adm. Brad Cooper, the leader of U.S. Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East, emphasized the value of economic pressure in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee last week. There had been “zero trade” in or out of Iranian ports, he said, “squeezing Iran economically and creating powerful leverage for the ongoing negotiations.”

事实上，负责指挥中东军事行动的美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将上周在众议院军事委员会作证时，特别强调了经济施压的重要性。他说，伊朗港口目前“贸易归零”，这“正在从经济上勒紧伊朗，为正在进行的谈判创造强大筹码”。

Iran can also inflict economic pain. Because the world economy relies on a global supply chain, it means that Iran’s blocking of exports like fertilizer, helium and most importantly oil and gas has been felt worldwide.

但伊朗同样也能制造经济痛苦。由于世界经济依赖全球供应链，伊朗阻断化肥、氦气，尤其是石油与天然气出口的行为，已经让全球都感受到了影响。

“It has become a contest of wills, to see who blinks first,” Mr. Connell said.

“这已演变成一场意志的较量，看谁先眨眼认输，”康奈尔说。

A blockade is an act of war under international law; escalation, purposeful or not, is always a risk. That point was driven home on Wednesday when Iran launched four one-way attack drones over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. military conducted airstrikes against a drone ground-control station in the port city of Bandar Abbas. It was the second time in three days that American forces conducted strikes in southern Iran, including against Iranian boats trying to emplace mines.

根据国际法，封锁是一种战争行为；无论有意与否，局势升级始终是一种风险。周三，伊朗向霍尔木兹海峡上空发射了四架单程攻击无人机，而美军则对港口城市阿巴斯的一个无人机地面控制站进行了空袭，这凸显了上述观点。这是三天内美军第二次对伊朗南部发动打击，此前一次的目标是试图布设水雷的伊朗船只。

The risks extend to other countries. More than 1.5 million people, for instance, are transiting the region for the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia right now, and the potential for a miscue that could endanger innocent lives is real. Navy officers on warships have this kind of warning drummed into them in training, with a reminder of how, during the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, a series of errors led a U.S. Navy cruiser to mistake an Iranian commercial flight for a hostile fighter jet. It shot the plane down over the Strait of Hormuz, killing all 290 people on board.

风险还会波及其他国家。例如，目前有超过150万人正在前往沙特参加朝觐，任何误判都可能危及无辜生命，这绝非空穴来风。美国海军军官在训练中经常被反复提醒这种风险，其中一个经典案例就是1988年两伊战争期间的一连串误判：一艘美国海军巡洋舰误把一架伊朗民航客机当作敌方战斗机，最终在霍尔木兹海峡上空将其击落，机上290人全部遇难。

The war at sea also imposes burdens. For Iran, the constriction of goods flowing in and out of the country puts enormous pressure on an economy that was reeling even before the war began — despite the alternative paths it has for trade.

海上战争本身也会带来巨大负担。对伊朗而言，进出口货物的受阻给早在战前便已举步维艰的经济带来了巨大压力——尽管它仍有其他贸易渠道可以利用。

本月，美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在华盛顿。他强调了在与伊朗的战争中控制经济利益的重要性。

For the United States, sending ships to patrol waters far from home not only is expensive, but also risks overtaxing the ships and the crews. The U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, for instance, limped home this month after a grueling 10 months in the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Red Sea — demonstrating how wear and tear can impose costs on a superpower overextending itself.

对美国来说，把军舰派往远离本土的海域巡逻不仅成本高昂，还可能导致舰艇与船员长期超负荷运转。例如，“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号航空母舰本月才刚刚结束在北大西洋、地中海、加勒比海和红海长达10个月的高强度部署，疲惫返航，由此可见一个过度扩张的超级大国如何因装备损耗而付出代价。

“The U.S. Navy can do some phenomenal things for a phenomenal amount of time,” said Mike Franken, a retired vice admiral who served as commodore of a destroyer squadron. “Around the edges things get tattered, and we’ve been at a very high op tempo.”

“美国海军能够在相当长的时间内保持相当强的战斗力，”曾担任驱逐舰战队指挥官的退役海军中将迈克·弗兰肯说。“但时间一长，边边角角都会磨损，而我们已经长时间处于极高的行动节奏之下。”

There are also strategic opportunities lost. The ships used to blockade Iran, and the sailors that operate them, cannot be used for other missions. President Trump’s recent trip to China served as a reminder that East Asia remains a region of strategic significance, with allies like South Korea, Japan and especially Taiwan relying at least to some extent on a U.S. naval deterrent.

还有战略机遇的流失。用于封锁伊朗的军舰与水兵无法执行其他任务。特朗普总统最近的中国之行提醒人们，东亚依然是具有重大战略意义的地区，韩国、日本，尤其是台湾，在某种程度上都依赖美国海军的威慑力。

Finally, having two adversaries in static tension creates the risk of accidental escalation, through a misreading of circumstances caused by anxiety, confusion or a lapse in concentration.

最后，两个对手处于静态紧张状态，会因焦虑、混乱或一时疏忽而误判形势，从而产生意外升级的风险。

The U.S. Central Command said this week it had redirected 111 commercial vessels and disabled four ships bound for Iranian ports thus far. Iranian forces have attacked American guided-missile destroyers crossing the Strait of Hormuz with missiles, drones and small boats. Central Command said the American warships successfully fended off the attack. Iran has also fired on ships from other countries trying to pass through the strait, causing some damage.

美国中央司令部本周表示，目前已迫使111艘商业船只改变航向，并使四艘前往伊朗港口的船只失去航行能力。伊朗部队则利用导弹、无人机与小型快艇对穿越霍尔木兹海峡的美国导弹驱逐舰发动袭击。中央司令部称，美军军舰成功击退了这些攻击。伊朗还向其他国家试图穿越海峡的船只开火，造成了一些破坏。

The United States has some two dozen warships involved in the blockade, which includes two aircraft carriers, the U.S.S. George H.W. Bush and the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, as well as guided-missile destroyers, amphibious ships, littoral combat ships and minesweepers, and refueling and supply ships to keep them provisioned and combat ready.

美国目前有大约二十多艘军舰参与封锁行动，其中包括“乔治·H·W·布什”号和“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号两艘航空母舰，以及导弹驱逐舰、两栖舰、濒海战斗舰、扫雷舰，以及负责补给与加油的后勤舰只，以保证整个舰队维持战备状态。

One precedent for the current stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz is the so-called Tanker War of the 1980s, when the war between Iran and Iraq spilled into the Persian Gulf. Though the United States was not one of the combatants, it was drawn into the fray as it began to escort civilian oil tankers through the strait, leading to the tragedy with the Iranian passenger jet.

当前霍尔木兹海峡僵局的一个历史先例是1980年代所谓的“油轮战争”。当时，伊朗与伊拉克之间的战争蔓延到波斯湾。虽然美国并非参战方，但由于开始护送民用油轮穿越海峡，最终还是被卷入冲突，并由此酿成了那场击落伊朗客机的惨剧。

If the current standoff continues, the tactic has direct costs in terms of keeping ships in the region supplied with food, fuel and ammunition. There’s also the need to keep drones, helicopters, fighters and surveillance planes in the air. Sailors, Marines and airmen receive imminent danger pay.

如果当前僵局持续下去，仅仅维持舰队在该地区运转就会产生直接成本——包括食品、燃料与弹药补给。与此同时，还需要让无人机、直升机、战斗机与侦察机持续保持空中巡逻。海军、海军陆战队与空军相关人员都要领取危险任务津贴。

本月，“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号航空母舰驶向弗吉尼亚州海岸附近的诺福克海军基地。它在北大西洋、地中海、加勒比海和波斯湾航行了10个月。

For sailors, the combination of long stretches of dullness punctuated by moments of stress and tension can be a grind. “A blockade is a very boring thing to do,” said Andrew Lambert, professor of naval history in the department of war studies at King’s College. “You’re just hanging around waiting for something to happen.”

对水兵来说，漫长无聊的时光与紧张压力的时刻交织在一起可能是一种煎熬。“封锁是一件非常无聊的事情，”伦敦国王学院战争研究系海军史教授安德鲁·兰伯特说。“你就在那里干耗着，等着什么事情发生。”

“There is a ripple effect from keeping large numbers of assets on station for protracted periods of time,” said James R. Holmes, chair of maritime strategy at the Naval War College.

“长期在任务区域保持大量装备部署会带来连锁效应，”海军战争学院海上战略系主任詹姆斯·霍姆斯说。

He cited the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford and its long deployment and posited that the carrier could encounter unexpected engineering problems when undergoing maintenance. While at sea, the ship endured mechanical problems with the gear that launches and recovers warplanes on the flight deck. A major fire destroyed the sleeping area for hundreds of sailors. There were also complaints about food shortages and delays in receiving mail that led to a decline in morale.

他以“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号及其漫长的部署周期为例，指出该航母在后续维护期间很可能会暴露出意料之外的工程问题。在海上部署期间，这艘航母曾遭遇舰载机起降设备机械故障；一场大火烧毁了数百名水兵的居住区。还有关于食物短缺和邮件延误导致士气低落的投诉。

It will be difficult for the United States to reopen trade through the strait without coming to terms with Iran, Mr. Holmes said. “All Iran needs to keep its chokehold on the Strait is enough of its mosquito fleet, including shore-based missiles and drones, to keep shipping firms and insurers jittery,” he said. “And seldom if ever does a military campaign fully disarm an antagonist short of regime change.”

霍姆斯表示，若不与伊朗达成协议，美国将难以打通这条海峡的贸易通道。“伊朗需要维持其对海峡的控制，只需足够多的‘蚊子舰队’——包括岸基导弹和无人机——让航运公司和保险公司保持惶恐，”他说。“而历史上，军事行动在不推翻政权的情况下，鲜有能让对手彻底缴械的先例。”

Mr. Lambert, the King’s College professor, said costs will mount as the standoff persists. “Because nothing particularly violent is happening on a large scale, the temptation to let it roll on is a real problem,” he said.

国王学院的兰伯特教授表示，随着僵局的持续，成本将会增加。“正因为大规模的激烈战事并未发生，任由局面拖延的诱惑就成了真正的隐患，”他说。